Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: Joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions

Softening and Cross-Susceptibility: Exposure to Heat and Desiccation Reduces Future Stress Tolerance in an Insect

The frequency and duration of environmental stressors, such as heat waves and drought, will continue to grow due to ongoing climate change, thereby increasing the likelihood that organisms will experience stressors consecutively. Exposure to one stressor can improve or impair future tolerance to the same stressor (i.e., hardening or softening, respectively), or enhance or reduce future tolerance to a different stressor (i.e., cross-protection or cross-susceptibility, respectively). Understanding whether stress improves or impairs animals' abilities to withstand future stressors is critical for determining the physiological sensitivity of animals to ongoing climate change. Here, we used a factorial design with the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps) to evaluate whether prior heat or desiccation stress influenced subsequent heat or dessication tolerance. Given the potential energetic costs of hardening and cross-protection, we further examined whether resource (food) acquisition promoted hardening and cross-susceptibility. Prior heat exposure reduced future heat tolerance (i.e., softening), and prior exposure to both heat and desiccation reduced future desiccation tolerance (i.e., softening and cross-susceptibility), potentially due to terminal reproductive investment. Further, resource acquisition (amount of body mass gained) did not influence stress tolerance because individuals that acquired more resources were not more likely to exhibit benefits (rather than costs) to their future stress tolerance. In sum, our results suggest the increasing frequency of climate-related stressors may pose a significant physiological risk to some animals.

Unraveling climate change-induced compound low-solar-low-wind extremes in China

China's pursuit of carbon neutrality targets hinges on a profound shift towards low-carbon energy, primarily reliant on intermittent and variable, yet crucial, solar and wind power sources. In particular, low-solar-low-wind (LSLW) compound extremes present a critical yet largely ignored threat to the reliability of renewable electricity generation. While existing studies have largely evaluated the impacts of average climate-induced changes in renewable energy resources, comprehensive analyses of the compound extremes and, particularly, the underpinning dynamic mechanisms remain scarce. Here we show the dynamic evolution of compound LSLW extremes and their underlying mechanisms across China via coupling multi-model simulations with diagnostic analysis. Our results unveil a strong topographic dependence in the frequency of compound LSLW extremes, with a national average frequency of 16.4 (10th-90th percentile interval ranges from 5.3 to 32.6) days/yr, when renewable energy resources in eastern China are particularly compromised (∼80% lower than that under an average climate). We reveal a striking increase in the frequency of LSLW extremes, ranging from 12.4% under SSP126 to 60.2% under SSP370, primarily driven by both renewable energy resource declines and increasingly heavily-tailed distributions, resulting from weakened meridional temperature (pressure) gradient, increased frequency of extremely dense cloud cover and additional distinctive influence of increased aerosols under SSP370. Our study underscores the urgency of preparing for significantly heightened occurrences of LSLW events in a warmer future, emphasizing that such climate-induced compound LSLW extreme changes are not simply by chance, but rather projectable, thereby underscoring the need for proactive adaptation strategies. Such insights are crucial for countries navigating a similar transition towards renewable energy.

Dynamic evolution characteristics and hazard assessment of compound drought/waterlogging and low temperature events for maize

Hazard assessment is fundamental in the field of disaster risk management. With the increase in global warming, compound water and temperature events have become more frequent. Current research lacks risk assessments of low temperatures and their compound events, necessitating relevant hazard assessment work to improve the accuracy and diversity of maize disaster prevention and mitigation strategies. This study comparatively analyzed the dynamic evolution characteristics and hazards of compound drought/waterlogging and low temperature events (CDLEs and CWLEs) for maize in the Songliao Plain during different growth periods from 1981 to 2020. First, composite drought/waterlogging and low temperature magnitude indices (CDLMI and CWLMI) were constructed to quantify the intensity of CDLEs and CWLEs by fitting non-exceedance probabilities. Next, static and dynamic hazard assessment models were developed by fitting probability density and cumulative probability density curves to CDLMI and CWLMI. The results showed that the correlations between SPRI and LTI across different decades were mainly negative during the three growth periods. The hazard ratings for both CDLEs and CWLEs were relatively high in the northern part of the study area, consistent with the higher occurrence, duration, and severity of both CDLEs and CWLEs at higher latitudes. Relative to 2001-2010, the center of gravity of hazard shifted southward for CDLEs and northward for CWLEs in 2011-2020. The mean duration, frequency, and hazard were generally higher for CWLEs, but CDLEs were associated with more severe maize yield reductions. This study provides new insights into compound disaster risk assessment, and the research methodology can be generalized to other agricultural growing areas to promote sustainable development of agricultural systems and food security.

Compound hot-dry events greatly prolong the recovery time of dryland ecosystems

Compound hot-dry events cause more severe impacts on terrestrial ecosystems than dry events, while the differences in recovery time (ΔRT) between hot-dry and dry events and their contributing factors remain unclear. Both remote sensing observations and eddy covariance measurements reveal that hot-dry events prolong the recovery time compared with dry events, with greater prolongation of recovery time in drylands than in humid regions. Random forest regression modeling demonstrates that the difference in vapor pressure deficit between hot-dry and dry events, with an importance score of 35%, is the major factor contributing to ΔRT. The severity of stomatal restriction exceeds that of non-stomatal limitation, which restricts the vegetation productivity that is necessary for the recovery process. These results emphasize the negative effect of vapor pressure deficit on vegetation recovery during hot-dry events and project an extension of drought recovery time considering elevated vapor pressure deficit in a warming world.

Weather Extremes Shock Maize Production: Current Approaches and Future Research Directions in Africa

Extreme weather events have led to widespread yield losses and significant global economic damage in recent decades. African agriculture is particularly vulnerable due to its harsh environments and limited adaptation capacity. This systematic review analyzes 96 articles from Web of Science, Science Direct, and Google Scholar, focusing on biophysical studies related to maize in Africa and worldwide. We investigated the observed and projected extreme weather events in Africa, their impacts on maize production, and the approaches used to assess these effects. Our analysis reveals that drought, heatwaves, and floods are major threats to African maize production, impacting yields, suitable cultivation areas, and farmers' livelihoods. While studies have employed various methods, including field experiments, statistical models, and process-based modeling, African research is often limited by data gaps and technological constraints. We identify three main gaps: (i) lack of reliable long-term experimental and empirical data, (ii) limited access to advanced climate change adaptation technologies, and (iii) insufficient knowledge about specific extreme weather patterns and their interactions with management regimes. This review highlights the urgent need for targeted research in Africa to improve understanding of extreme weather impacts and formulate effective adaptation strategies. We advocate for focused research on data collection, technology transfer, and integration of local knowledge with new technologies to bolster maize resilience and food security in Africa.

Genomic prediction of synthetic hexaploid wheat upon tetraploid durum and diploid Aegilops parental pools

Bread wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is a globally important food crop, which was domesticated about 8-10,000 years ago. Bread wheat is an allopolyploid, and it evolved from two hybridization events of three species. To widen the genetic base in breeding, bread wheat has been re-synthesized by crossing durum wheat (Triticum turgidum ssp. durum) and goat grass (Aegilops tauschii Coss), leading to so-called synthetic hexaploid wheat (SHW). We applied the quantitative genetics tools of "hybrid prediction"-originally developed for the prediction of wheat hybrids generated from different heterotic groups - to a situation of allopolyploidization. Our use-case predicts the phenotypes of SHW for three quantitatively inherited global wheat diseases, namely tan spot (TS), septoria nodorum blotch (SNB), and spot blotch (SB). Our results revealed prediction abilities comparable to studies in 'traditional' elite or hybrid wheat. Prediction abilities were highest using a marker model and performing random cross-validation, predicting the performance of untested SHW (0.483 for SB to 0.730 for TS). When testing parents not necessarily used in SHW, combination prediction abilities were slightly lower (0.378 for SB to 0.718 for TS), yet still promising. Despite the limited phenotypic data, our results provide a general example for predictive models targeting an allopolyploidization event and a method that can guide the use of genetic resources available in gene banks.

Plant responses to co-occurring heat and water deficit stress: A comparative study of tolerance mechanisms in old and modern wheat genotypes

Global climate change increases the likelihood of co-occurrence of hot and dry spells with increased intensity, frequency, and duration. Studying the impact of the two stresses provide a better understanding of tolerance mechanisms in wheat, and our study was focused on revealing plant stress responses to different severities of combined stress at two phenophases in old and modern wheat genotypes. During the stem elongation and anthesis stages, plants were exposed to four treatments: control, deficit irrigation, combined heat, and deficit irrigation at 31 °C (HD31) and 37 °C (HD37). The modern genotypes were less affected by deficit irrigation at stem elongation as they maintained higher photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and leaf cooling than old genotypes. When the HD37 stress was imposed during anthesis, the modern genotypes exhibited superior performance compared to the old, which was due to their higher photosynthetic rates resulting from improved biochemical regulation and a higher chlorophyll content. The plant responses varied during two phenophases under the combined stress exposure. Genotypes subjected to HD37 stress during stem elongation, photosynthesis was mainly controlled by stomatal regulation, whereas at anthesis it was predominated by biochemical regulation. These findings contribute to a deeper comprehension of plant tolerance mechanisms in response to different intensities of co-occurring hot and dry weather conditions.

Assessment of the combined vulnerability to droughts and heatwaves in Shandong Province in summer from 2000 to 2018

Droughts and heat waves exhibit synergistic effects and are among the world's most costly disasters. To explore the spatiotemporal differences and formation mechanisms of the combined vulnerability to droughts and heat waves in Shandong Province over the past 20 years, a vulnerability scoping diagram (VSD) model with three dimensions-exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability-was constructed to assess and compare the combined vulnerability to high-temperature and drought events, considering economic and social conditions. The results showed that (1) over the past 20 years, heat waves and droughts have increased in Shandong Province. The number of high-temperature events significantly increased in the west and decreased along the eastern coast, and drought change was characterized by an increase in the south and a decrease in the north. (2) The combined exposure to summer droughts and heat waves in Shandong Province showed a significant increasing trend (P < 0.05) at a rate of approximately 0.072/10a; the combined sensitivity significantly decreased (P < 0.05) at a rate of approximately 0.137/10a, and the combined adaptability continued to increase at a rate of approximately 0.481/10a. (3) The combined vulnerability to summer droughts and heat waves in the western inland area of Shandong Province was high and gradually decreased toward the southeastern coast. The overall decrease trend was nonsignificant with a decrease of approximately 0.126/10a, and the decline rate decreased from northwest to southeast, in which Laiwu, Yantai, Jinan, and Zibo cities exhibited a significant decreasing trend (P < 0.05). Although the compound vulnerability of Shandong Province has decreased insignificantly, the frequency of combined drought and heat wave events has increased, and the combined vulnerability will increase in the future.

Increasing prevalence of hot drought across western North America since the 16th century

Across western North America (WNA), 20th-21st century anthropogenic warming has increased the prevalence and severity of concurrent drought and heat events, also termed hot droughts. However, the lack of independent spatial reconstructions of both soil moisture and temperature limits the potential to identify these events in the past and to place them in a long-term context. We develop the Western North American Temperature Atlas (WNATA), a data-independent 0.5° gridded reconstruction of summer maximum temperatures back to the 16th century. Our evaluation of the WNATA with existing hydroclimate reconstructions reveals an increasing association between maximum temperature and drought severity in recent decades, relative to the past five centuries. The synthesis of these paleo-reconstructions indicates that the amplification of the modern WNA megadrought by increased temperatures and the frequency and spatial extent of compound hot and dry conditions in the 21st century are likely unprecedented since at least the 16th century.

Grassland vegetation decline is exacerbated by drought and can be mitigated by soil improvement in Inner Mongolia, China

Grassland activity is highly susceptible to drought while drivers from climate and soil attributes can largely affect drought propagation. However, understanding how these drives regulate the risk of vegetation decline under drought conditions remains limited, potentially impeding the adoption of appropriate adaptation strategies. To address this knowledge gap, we conducted a case study focusing on grassland activity in Inner Mongolia, China. In this study, we applied copula theorem to estimate the conditional probabilities of vegetation decline under drought conditions. Additionally, we utilized a structural equation model and a machine learning approach to identify the relative contributions of external drivers to the risk of vegetation decline. Our findings demonstrated a positive correlation between anomalies in vegetation activity and the status of water balance, and grassland vegetation in drier regions exhibited a more rapid response to water deficit. Increasing water deficit continuously reduced vegetation activity with risks of 77.27 %, 83.83 %, and 88.35 % under moderate, severe, and extreme drought conditions, respectively. Furthermore, the risks of vegetation decline under drought conditions were primarily governed by climate attributes, followed by soil properties and topography. Soil with high soil organic carbon stock content contributed significantly to mitigating the adverse effects of drought on grassland vegetation. In addition, we detected nonlinear patterns among environmental drivers and vegetation decline risks caused by drought. These findings highlight the importance of climate, soil properties, topography, and their intricate interconnections in regulating vegetation decline. This knowledge provides valuable insights into drought risk management for vegetation in advance and offers potential solutions to enhance vegetation resistance in the face of extreme drought events.

Impacts of compounding drought and heatwave events on child mental health: insights from a spatial clustering analysis

BACKGROUND

Concurrent heatwave and drought events may have larger health impacts than each event separately; however, no US-based studies have examined differential mental health impacts of compound drought and heatwave events in pediatric populations.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the spatial patterns of mood disorders and suicide-related emergency department (ED) visits in children during heatwave, drought, and compound heatwave and drought events. We tested whether the occurrence of compound heatwave and drought events have a synergistic (multiplicative) effect on the risk of mental health related outcomes in children as compared to the additive effect of each individual climate hazard. Lastly, we identified household and community-level determinants of geographic variability of high psychiatric burden.

METHODS

Daily counts of psychiatric ED visits in North Carolina from 2016 to 2019 (May to Sept) for pediatric populations were aggregated at the county scale. Bernoulli cluster analyses identified high-risk spatial clusters of psychiatric morbidity during heatwave, drought, or compound heatwave and drought periods. Multivariate adaptive regression models examined the individual importance of household and community-level determinants in predicting high-risk clustering of mood disorders or suicidality across the three climate threats.

RESULTS

Results showed significant spatial clustering of suicide and mood disorder risks in children during heatwave, drought, and compound event periods. Periods of drought were associated with the highest likelihood of spatial clustering for suicide and mood disorders, where the risk of an ED visit was 4.48 and 6.32 times higher, respectively, compared to non-drought periods. Compounding events were associated with a threefold increase in both suicide and mood disorder-related ED visits. Community and household vulnerability factors that most contributed to spatial clustering varied across climate hazards, but consistent determinants included residential segregation, green space availability, low English proficiency, overcrowding, no broadband access, no vehicle access, housing vacancy, and availability of housing units.

CONCLUSION

Findings advance understanding on the locations of vulnerable pediatric populations who are disproportionately exposed to compounding climate stressors and identify community resilience factors to target in public health adaptation strategies.

Parental exposure to heat waves improves offspring reproductive investment in Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae), but not in its predator, Phytoseiulus persimilis (Acari: Phytoseiidae)

The more frequent and intense occurrence of heat waves is a challenge for arthropods because their unpredictable incidence requires fast adaptations by the exposed individuals. Phenotypic plasticity within and across generations might be a solution to cope with the detrimental effects of heat waves, especially for fast-developing, small arthropods with limited dispersal abilities. Therefore, we studied whether severe heat may affect the reproduction of a pest species, the spider mite Tetranychus urticae, and its counterpart, the predatory mite Phytoseiulus persimilis. Single offspring females with different parental thermal origins (reared under mild or extreme heat waves) of both species were exposed to mild or extreme heat waves on bean leaves over 10 days, and the oviposition, egg sizes, survival, and escape behavior of the females were evaluated daily. The total losses of predators mainly via escapers were very high compared to prey, which makes a separation between selective and plastic effects on shifted reproductive traits impossible. Predator females laid smaller eggs, while their consumption and oviposition rates were unaffected during extreme heat waves. In comparison, larger prey females fed more and produced more, but smaller, eggs due to within- and trans-generational effects. These advantages for the prey in comparison to its predator when exposed to extreme heat waves during the reproductive phase support the trophic sensitivity hypothesis: higher trophic levels (i.e., the predator) are more sensitive to thermal stress than lower trophic levels (i.e., the prey). Furthermore, the species-specific responses may reflect their lifestyles. The proactive and mobile predator should be selected for behavioral thermoregulation under heat waves via spatiotemporal avoidance of heat-exposed locations rather than relying on physiological adaptations in contrast to the more sessile prey. Whether these findings also influence predator-prey interactions and their population dynamics under heat waves remains an open question.

A simulated heat wave-but not herbicide exposure-alters resource investment strategy in an insect

Animals are increasingly exposed to potential stressors related to environmental change, and multiple stressors may alter the dynamics by which animals acquire resources and invest those resources into important life-history traits. Stress may lead to the prioritization of current reproduction to maximize lifetime reproduction (i.e., terminal investment [TI]) or, in contrast, prioritize somatic investment over current reproduction to facilitate future reproductive opportunities (i.e., reproductive restraint [RR]). Tests of the TI and RR hypotheses typically use immune challenges as stressors, and have not been explicitly tested in the context of environmental change even though warming influences resource allocation patterns across taxa. Further, the multiple-stressor framework has been a useful construct to clarify the costs of complex environmental shifts to animals, but it has not been leveraged to understand such effects on investment strategy. Thus, we tested the TI and RR hypotheses by manipulating widespread features of environmental change-glyphosate-based herbicide (GBH; Roundup®) exposure and a simulated heat wave-in the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps). A simulated heat wave affected the life-history tradeoff between investment into reproduction and soma. Specifically, heat wave prioritized investment into ovary mass over non-reproductive tissue, even after accounting for food consumption, in support of the TI hypothesis. In contrast, GBH exposure did not affect any measured trait, and crickets did not discriminate between tap water and GBH solution during drinking. Therefore, some-but not all-aspects of environmental change may alter resource investment strategies in animals. We encourage continued integration of the multiple-stressor framework and life-history theory to better understand how animals respond to their rapidly changing environments.

Climate change will accelerate the high-end risk of compound drought and heatwave events

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered increased attention due to their significant impacts on agriculture, energy, water resources, and ecosystems. We quantify the projected future shifts in CDHW characteristics (such as frequency, duration, and severity) due to continued anthropogenic warming relative to the baseline recent observed period (1982 to 2019). We combine weekly drought and heatwave information for 26 climate divisions across the globe, employing historical and projected model output from eight Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 GCMs and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Statistically significant trends are revealed in the CDHW characteristics for both recent observed and model simulated future period (2020 to 2099). East Africa, North Australia, East North America, Central Asia, Central Europe, and Southeastern South America show the greatest increase in frequency through the late 21st century. The Southern Hemisphere displays a greater projected increase in CDHW occurrence, while the Northern Hemisphere displays a greater increase in CDHW severity. Regional warmings play a significant role in CDHW changes in most regions. These findings have implications for minimizing the impacts of extreme events and developing adaptation and mitigation policies to cope with increased risk on water, energy, and food sectors in critical geographical regions.

Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

The role of climate change and urban development on compound dry-hot extremes across US cities

Compound dry-hot extreme (CDHE) events pose greater risks to the environment, society, and human health than their univariate counterparts. Here, we project decadal-length changes in the frequency and duration of CDHE events for major U.S. cities during the 21st century. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled to an urban canopy parameterization, we find a considerable increase in the frequency and duration of future CDHE events across all U.S. major cities under the compound effect of high-intensity GHG- and urban development-induced warming. Our results indicate that while GHG-induced warming is the primary driver of the increased frequency and duration of CDHE events, urban development amplifies this effect and should not be neglected. Furthermore, We show that the highest frequency amplification of major CDHE events is expected for U.S. cities across the Great Plains South, Southwest, and the southern part of the Northwest National Climate Assessment regions.

The detection and attribution of extreme reductions in vegetation growth across the global land surface

Negative extreme anomalies in vegetation growth (NEGs) usually indicate severely impaired ecosystem services. These NEGs can result from diverse natural and anthropogenic causes, especially climate extremes (CEs). However, the relationship between NEGs and many types of CEs remains largely unknown at regional and global scales. Here, with satellite-derived vegetation index data and supporting tree-ring chronologies, we identify periods of NEGs from 1981 to 2015 across the global land surface. We find 70% of these NEGs are attributable to five types of CEs and their combinations, with compound CEs generally more detrimental than individual ones. More importantly, we find that dominant CEs for NEGs vary by biome and region. Specifically, cold and/or wet extremes dominate NEGs in temperate mountains and high latitudes, whereas soil drought and related compound extremes are primarily responsible for NEGs in wet tropical, arid and semi-arid regions. Key characteristics (e.g., the frequency, intensity and duration of CEs, and the vulnerability of vegetation) that determine the dominance of CEs are also region- and biome-dependent. For example, in the wet tropics, dominant individual CEs have both higher intensity and longer duration than non-dominant ones. However, in the dry tropics and some temperate regions, a longer CE duration is more important than higher intensity. Our work provides the first global accounting of the attribution of NEGs to diverse climatic extremes. Our analysis has important implications for developing climate-specific disaster prevention and mitigation plans among different regions of the globe in a changing climate.

Global concurrent climate extremes exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change

Increases in concurrent climate extremes in different parts of the world threaten the ecosystem and our society. However, spatial patterns of these extremes and their past and future changes remain unclear. Here, we develop a statistical framework to test for spatial dependence and show widespread dependence of temperature and precipitation extremes in observations and model simulations, with more frequent than expected concurrence of extremes around the world. Historical anthropogenic forcing has strengthened the concurrence of temperature extremes over 56% of 946 global paired regions, particularly in the tropics, but has not yet significantly affected concurrent precipitation extremes during 1901-2020. The future high-emissions pathway of SSP585 will substantially amplify the concurrence strength, intensity, and spatial extent for both temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over tropical and boreal regions, while the mitigation pathway of SSP126 can ameliorate the increase in concurrent climate extremes for these high-risk regions. Our findings will inform adaptation strategies to alleviate the impact of future climate extremes.

Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields

Although extreme weather events recur periodically everywhere, the impacts of their simultaneous occurrence on crop yields are globally unknown. In this study, we estimate the impacts of combined hot and dry extremes as well as cold and wet extremes on maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields using gridded weather data and reported crop yield data at the global scale for 1980-2009. Our results show that co-occurring extremely hot and dry events have globally consistent negative effects on the yields of all inspected crop types. Extremely cold and wet conditions were observed to reduce crop yields globally too, although to a lesser extent and the impacts being more uncertain and inconsistent. Critically, we found that over the study period, the probability of co-occurring extreme hot and dry events during the growing season increased across all inspected crop types; wheat showing the largest, up to a six-fold, increase. Hence, our study highlights the potentially detrimental impacts that increasing climate variability can have on global food production.

Stress tolerance is influenced by artificial light at night during development and life-history strategy

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is increasingly prevalent worldwide, but life-history strategy may mitigate the costs of ALAN for animals. Yet, interactions among ALAN, life-history strategy and tolerance to climate-related stressors are unknown. We determined if developmental ALAN exposure (1) affects development, (2) affects adult phenotype, including heat and desiccation tolerance, and (3) affects and/or interacts with life-history strategy. We used the variable field cricket (Gryllus lineaticeps) because its geographic range is increasingly exposed to ALAN, heat, and drought conditions, and it exhibits different life-history strategies (flight-capability versus flight-incapability). ALAN affected adult phenotype, with positive effects on body mass (and size) and female reproductive investment, and a negative effect on heat tolerance. Life-history strategy also affected stress tolerance; flight-incapable females had greater heat tolerance and their desiccation tolerance was improved by ALAN exposure. Key features of environmental change (i.e. exposure to ALAN, heat and drought) may favor some life-history strategies over others.

Climate warming and summer monsoon breaks drive compound dry and hot extremes in India

Considering the severe impacts of compound dry and hot extremes, we examine the primary drivers of CDHEs during the summer monsoon in India. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we show that most of the CDHEs in India occur during the droughts caused by the summer monsoon rainfall deficit. Despite a decline in the frequency of summer monsoon droughts in recent decades, increased CDHEs are mainly driven by warming and dry spells during the summer monsoon particularly in the Northeast, central northeast, and west central regions. A strong land-atmospheric coupling during droughts in the summer monsoon season leads to frequent CDHEs in the Northwest and southern peninsular regions. Furthermore, regional variations in land-atmospheric coupling cause substantial differences in the CDHE occurrence in different parts of the country. Summer monsoon rainfall variability and increased warming can pose a greater risk of compound dry and hot extremes with severe impacts on various sectors in India.

Hotspots, co-occurrence, and shifts of compound and cascading extreme climate events in Eurasian drylands

Eurasian drylands are the regions that are most vulnerable to climate change. Climate extremes have caused enormous or even devastating impacts on ecosystems and the social economy in this region, and the compound climate extremes (com_CEs, two or more extreme events occurring simultaneously) and cascading climate extremes (cas_CEs, two or more extreme events occurring successively) have exacerbated these problems. However, little is known about the occurrence patterns of com_CEs and cas_CEs in the Eurasian drylands. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis data range from 1979 to 2020, we improved the methodology for the extraction of co-occurrence events and identified high-frequency types, their hotspots, and occurrence rhythms (seasonally and annually) in Eurasian drylands. Our results showed that com_CEs and cas_CEs have high similarities in the types and spatial hotspots of extreme events; however, the former has a wider geographical and spatial distribution, and the latter has a longer duration. Specifically, co-occurring drought and heatwave events (DH) frequently appear in South Asia and western mid-latitude regions during summer, while in the winter, high latitude regions should be alert to the co-occurrence of drought and low-temperature events (DT). Central Asia and the Mongolian Plateau regions are prone to frequent drought and wind events (DW), and wind and high precipitation events (WP) in the spring and autumn. We have noticed that mid-latitude may suffer from extreme events that have never occurred before, such as com_DH being scattered sporadically in the first two decades and suddenly surging in West Asia and East Asia after the year 2000, and com_DT migrating from high-latitude areas such as the Arctic Ocean coast to mid-latitudes. Our results contribute to understanding hotspots of co-occurring CEs in Eurasian drylands, where more efforts will be needed in the future, especially in mid-latitudes which may suffer extreme climate events that have never occurred before.

Crop Yield Loss Risk Is Modulated by Anthropogenic Factors

High crop yield variation between years-caused by extreme shocks on the food production system such as extreme weather-can have substantial effects on food production. This in turn introduces vulnerabilities into the global food system. To mitigate the effects of these shocks, there is a clear need to understand how different adaptive capacity measures link to crop yield variability. While existing literature provides many local-scale studies on this linkage, no comprehensive global assessment yet exists. We assessed reported crop yield variation for wheat, maize, soybean, and rice for the time period 1981-2009 by measuring both yield loss risk (variation in negative yield anomalies considering all years) and changes in yields during "dry" shock and "hot" shock years. We used the machine learning algorithm XGBoost to assess the explanatory power of selected gridded indicators of anthropogenic factors globally (i.e., adaptive capacity measures such as the human development index, irrigation infrastructure, and fertilizer use) on yield variation at a 0.5° resolution within climatically similar regions (to rule out the role of average climate conditions). We found that the anthropogenic factors explained 40%-60% of yield loss risk variation across the whole time period, whereas the factors provided noticeably lower (5%-20%) explanatory power during shock years. On a continental scale, especially in Europe and Africa, the factors explained a high proportion of the yield loss risk variation (up to around 80%). Assessing crop production vulnerabilities on global scale provides supporting knowledge to target specific adaptation measures, thus contributing to global food security.

Research priorities for global food security under extreme events

Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events.

Increased probability and severity of compound dry and hot growing seasons over world's major croplands

Dry and hot extremes are major sources of risk to crop yields, and their impacts are expected to increase under future global warming. The co-occurring dry and hot conditions during crop growing seasons have amplified impacts on crop health that are even larger than the sum of their individual impacts, which may cause crop failure. In this study, we focus on the compound dry and hot growing seasons (hereafter CDHGS) for global wheat, rice, maize and soybean in the period 1951-2020. Total precipitation (TP) and accumulated active temperature (AAT) are used as indicators of overall water stress and heat stress, respectively, at the growing season scale. A copula model is used to construct joint distributions of TP and AAT sequences to investigate the joint behavior of dry and hot conditions during crop growing seasons. Our results indicate that after 1980, the growing seasons of the four crops become drier and more rapidly hotter across the globe, the probability of extreme CDHGS (P(TP ≤ TP₂₅,AAT > AAT₇₅)) increases in more than 80% of global croplands, the severity of CDHGS increases in more than 83% of global croplands, especially in Europe, Central Africa and eastern China. This study provides a global dimension analysis on the changes in compound dry and hot stresses within crops growing seasons in the context of global warming, offering helpful techniques to study the interaction between multi-hazards that occur during crop growth processes, which can effectively contribute to guiding the decision-making processes related to risk reduction and agricultural practices.

Plant-water sensitivity regulates wildfire vulnerability

Extreme wildfires extensively impact human health and the environment. Increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD) has led to a chronic increase in wildfire area in the western United States, yet some regions have been more affected than others. Here we show that for the same increase in VPD, burned area increases more in regions where vegetation moisture shows greater sensitivity to water limitation (plant-water sensitivity; R2 = 0.71). This has led to rapid increases in human exposure to wildfire risk, both because the population living in areas with high plant-water sensitivity grew 50% faster during 1990-2010 than in other wildland-urban interfaces and because VPD has risen most rapidly in these vulnerable areas. As plant-water sensitivity is strongly linked to wildfire vulnerability, accounting for ecophysiological controls should improve wildfire forecasts. If recent trends in VPD and demographic shifts continue, human wildfire risk will probably continue to increase.

Evaluating the effects of water and food limitation on the life history of an insect using a multiple-stressor framework

Many environmental stressors naturally covary, and the frequency and duration of stressors such as heat waves and droughts are increasing globally with climate change. Multiple stressors may have additive or non-additive effects on fitness-related traits, such as locomotion, reproduction, and somatic growth. Despite its importance to terrestrial animals, water availability is rarely incorporated into multiple-stressor frameworks. Water limitation often occurs concurrently with food limitation (e.g., droughts can trigger famines), and the acquisition of water and food can be linked because water is necessary for digestion and metabolism. Thus, we investigated the independent and interactive effects of water and food limitation on life-history traits using female crickets (Gryllus firmus), which exhibit a wing dimorphism mediating a life-history trade-off between flight and fecundity. Our results indicate that traits vary in their sensitivities to environmental factors and factor-factor interactions. For example, neither environmental factor affected flight musculature, only water limitation affected survival, and food and water availability non-additively (i.e., interactively) influenced body and ovary mass. Water availability had a larger effect on traits than food availability, affected more traits than food availability, and mediated the effects of food availability. Further, life-history strategy influenced the costs of multiple stressors because females investing in flight capacity exhibited greater reductions in body and ovary mass during stress relative to females lacking flight capacity. Therefore, water is important in the multiple-stressor framework, and understanding the dynamics of covarying environmental factors and life history may be critical in the context of climate change characterized by concurrent environmental stressors.

Identifying agricultural disaster risk zones for future climate actions

Identifying agricultural disaster risk regions before the occurrence of climate-related disasters is critical for early mitigation planning. This paper aims to identify these regions based on data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the bilateral and multilateral trade network data of the World Integrated Trade Solution(WITS) and the agent-based economic model Acclimate. By applying a uniform forcing across agricultural sectors of some breadbasket regions (US, EU and China), when single and simultaneous extreme weather events occur, such as the 2018 European heatwave, production and consumption value losses and gains are calculated at regional and global levels. Comparing the FAO data sets, WITS, and Acclimate's production value losses, the results show a strong dependence of agricultural production losses on a region's output and connectivity level in the global supply and trade network. While India, Brazil, Russia, Canada, Australia, and Iran are highly vulnerable, the imposition of export restrictions to compensate for demand shortfalls makes Sub-Saharan Africa the most vulnerable region, as it is heavily dependent on agricultural imports. In addition, simultaneous extreme weather events can exacerbate the loss of value of agricultural production relative to single extreme weather events. Agricultural practices to increase production such as smart farming, increased investment in plantation agriculture, and diversification of trading partners can help mitigate future food security risks in Sub-Saharan Africa and other agricultural import-dependent regions.

Harnessing translational research in wheat for climate resilience

Despite being the world's most widely grown crop, research investments in wheat (Triticum aestivum and Triticum durum) fall behind those in other staple crops. Current yield gains will not meet 2050 needs, and climate stresses compound this challenge. However, there is good evidence that heat and drought resilience can be boosted through translating promising ideas into novel breeding technologies using powerful new tools in genetics and remote sensing, for example. Such technologies can also be applied to identify climate resilience traits from among the vast and largely untapped reserve of wheat genetic resources in collections worldwide. This review describes multi-pronged research opportunities at the focus of the Heat and Drought Wheat Improvement Consortium (coordinated by CIMMYT), which together create a pipeline to boost heat and drought resilience, specifically: improving crop design targets using big data approaches; developing phenomic tools for field-based screening and research; applying genomic technologies to elucidate the bases of climate resilience traits; and applying these outputs in developing next-generation breeding methods. The global impact of these outputs will be validated through the International Wheat Improvement Network, a global germplasm development and testing system that contributes key productivity traits to approximately half of the global wheat-growing area.

Breeding for drought and heat tolerance in wheat

Many approaches have been adopted to enhance the heat and drought tolerance of wheat with mixed success. An assessment of the relative merits of different strategies is presented. Wheat is the most widely grown crop globally and plays a key role in human nutrition. However, it is grown in environments that are prone to heat and drought stress, resulting in severely reduced yield in some seasons. Increased climate variability is expected to have a particularly adverse effect of wheat production. Breeding for stable yield across both good and bad seasons while maintaining high yield under optimal conditions is a high priority for most wheat breeding programs and has been a focus of research activities. Multiple strategies have been explored to enhance the heat and drought tolerance of wheat including extensive genetic analysis and modify the expression of genes involved in stress responses, targeting specific physiological traits and direct selection under a range of stress scenarios. These approaches have been combined with improvements in phenotyping, the development of genetic and genomic resources, and extended screening and analysis techniques. The results have greatly expanded our knowledge and understanding of the factors that influence yield under stress, but not all have delivered the hoped-for progress. Here, we provide an overview of the different strategies and an assessment of the most promising approaches.

When it's hot and dry: life-history strategy influences the effects of heat waves and water limitation

The frequency, duration and co-occurrence of several environmental stressors, such as heat waves and droughts, are increasing globally. Such multiple stressors may have compounding or interactive effects on animals, resulting in either additive or non-additive costs, but animals may mitigate these costs through various strategies of resource conservation or shifts in resource allocation. Through a factorial experiment, we investigated the independent and interactive effects of a simulated heat wave and water limitation on life-history, physiological and behavioral traits. We used the variable field cricket, Gryllus lineaticeps, which exhibits a wing dimorphism that mediates two distinct life-history strategies during early adulthood. Long-winged individuals invest in flight musculature and are typically flight capable, whereas short-winged individuals lack flight musculature and capacity. A comprehensive and integrative approach with G. lineaticeps allowed us to examine whether life-history strategy influenced the costs of multiple stressors as well as the resulting cost-limiting strategies. Concurrent heat wave and water limitation resulted in largely non-additive and single-stressor costs to important traits (e.g. survival and water balance), extensive shifts in resource allocation priorities (e.g. reduced prioritization of body mass) and a limited capacity to conserve resources (e.g. heat wave reduced energy use only when water was available). Life-history strategy influenced the emergency life-history stage because wing morphology and stressor(s) interacted to influence body mass, boldness behavior and immunocompetence. Our results demonstrate that water availability and life-history strategy should be incorporated into future studies integrating important conceptual frameworks of stress across a suite of traits - from survival and life history to behavior and physiology.

Towards food supply chain resilience to environmental shocks

Environmental variability and shock events can be propagated or attenuated along food supply chains by various economic, political and infrastructural factors. Understanding these processes is central to reducing risks associated with periodic food shortages, price spikes and reductions in food quality. Here we perform a scoping review of the literature to examine entry points for environmental variability along the food supply chain, the evidence of propagation or attenuation of this variability, and the food items and types of shock that have been studied. We find that research on food supply shocks has primarily focused on maize, rice and wheat, on agricultural production and on extreme rainfall and temperatures-indicating the need to expand research into the full food basket, diverse sources of environmental variability and the links connecting food production to consumption and nutrition. Insights from this new knowledge can inform key responses-at the level of an individual (for example, substituting foods), a company (for example, switching sources) or a government (for example, strategic reserves)-for coping with disruptions.

Exploring multidecadal changes in climate and reservoir storage for assessing nonstationarity in flood peaks and risks worldwide by an integrated frequency analysis approach

The changing climate and reservoir storage have a far-reaching influence on the nonstationarity in flood peaks worldwide, but the quantification of the relative contribution of each covariate (i.e., climate and reservoir storage) is fundamentally challenging especially under the time-varying mechanisms in statistical properties. This study proposed an integrated flood frequency analysis for assessing the impacts of changing climate and reservoir storage on the nonstationarity in flood peaks and flood risks worldwide. The 32 major river catchments covering more than 60% of hydro-meteorological observation stations and 70% of reservoir storage worldwide constituted the case study. The proposed three-faceted approach was explored systematically through: modeling the nonstationarity in global flood peaks, identifying the contribution of changing climate and reservoir storage to the nonstationarity of flood peaks, and quantifying the change in flood risks under the nonstationary condition. The findings pointed out that global flood trends varied from increasing +19.3%/decade to decreasing -31.6%/decade. Taking the stationary flood frequency analysis as the benchmark, the comparative results revealed that the flood risk in 5 rivers under the nonstationary condition in response to warming climate significantly increased (1% → 5%) over the historical period whereas the flood risk in 7 rivers in response to increasing reservoir storage largely reduced (1% → 0.5%). Despite the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of observations, the changes in flood peaks evaluated here were explicitly in lined with the changing climate and reservoir storage, supporting the demand for considering the nonstationarity of flood peaks and risks in social infrastructure planning and designing as well as water management.

A century of observations reveals increasing likelihood of continental-scale compound dry-hot extremes

Using over a century of ground-based observations over the contiguous United States, we show that the frequency of compound dry and hot extremes has increased substantially in the past decades, with an alarming increase in very rare dry-hot extremes. Our results indicate that the area affected by concurrent extremes has also increased significantly. Further, we explore homogeneity (i.e., connectedness) of dry-hot extremes across space. We show that dry-hot extremes have homogeneously enlarged over the past 122 years, pointing to spatial propagation of extreme dryness and heat and increased probability of continental-scale compound extremes. Last, we show an interesting shift between the main driver of dry-hot extremes over time. While meteorological drought was the main driver of dry-hot events in the 1930s, the observed warming trend has become the dominant driver in recent decades. Our results provide a deeper understanding of spatiotemporal variation of compound dry-hot extremes.

City limits: Heat tolerance is influenced by body size and hydration state in an urban ant community

Cities are rapidly expanding, and global warming is intensified in urban environments due to the urban heat island effect. Therefore, urban animals may be particularly susceptible to warming associated with ongoing climate change. We used a comparative and manipulative approach to test three related hypotheses about the determinants of heat tolerance or critical thermal maximum (CT max) in urban ants-specifically, that (a) body size, (b) hydration status, and (c) chosen microenvironments influence CT max. We further tested a fourth hypothesis that native species are particularly physiologically vulnerable in urban environments. We manipulated water access and determined CT max for 11 species common to cities in California's Central Valley that exhibit nearly 300-fold variation in body size. There was a moderate phylogenetic signal influencing CT max, and inter (but not intra) specific variation in body size influenced CT max where larger species had higher CT max. The sensitivity of ants' CT max to water availability exhibited species-specific thresholds where short-term water limitation (8 hr) reduced CT max and body water content in some species while longer-term water limitation (32 hr) was required to reduce these traits in other species. However, CT max was not related to the temperatures chosen by ants during activity. Further, we found support for our fourth hypothesis because CT max and estimates of thermal safety margin in native species were more sensitive to water availability relative to non-native species. In sum, we provide evidence of links between heat tolerance and water availability, which will become critically important in an increasingly warm, dry, and urbanized world that others have shown may be selecting for smaller (not larger) body size.

The Impact of Agricultural Production and Policy on Water Quality during the Dry Year 2018, a Case Study from Germany

The hot summer of 2018 posed many challenges with regard to water shortages and yield losses, especially for agricultural production. These agricultural impacts might further pose consequent threats for the environment. In this paper, we deduce the impact of droughts on agricultural land management and on water quality owing to nitrate pollution. Using national statistics, we calculate a Germany-wide soil surface nitrogen budget for 2018 and deduce the additional N surplus owing to the dry weather conditions. Using a model farm approach, we compare fertilization practices and legal restrictions for arable and pig breeding farms. The results show that, nationwide, at least 464 kt of nitrogen were not transferred to plant biomass in 2018, which equals an additional average nitrogen surplus of 30 kg/ha. The surplus would even have amounted to 43 kg/ha, if farmers had continued their fertilization practice from preceding years, but German farmers applied 161 kt less nitrogen in 2018 than in the year before, presumably as a result of the new implications of the Nitrates Directive, and, especially on grassland, owing to the drought. As nitrogen surplus is regarded as an “agri-drinking water indicator” (ADWI), an increase of the surplus entails water pollution with nitrates. The examples of the model farms show that fertilization regimes with high shares of organic fertilizers produce higher nitrogen surpluses. Owing to the elevated concentrations on residual nitrogen in soils, the fertilization needs of crops in spring 2019 were less pronounced than in preceding years. Thus, the quantity of the continuously produced manure in livestock farms puts additional pressure on existing storage capacities. This may particularly be the case in the hot-spot regions of animal breeding in the north-west of Germany, where manure production, biogas plants, and manure imports are accumulating. The paper concludes that water shortages under climate change not only impact agricultural production and yields, but also place further challenges and threats to nutrient management and the environment. The paper discusses preventive and emergency management options for agriculture to support farmers in extremely dry and hot conditions.

Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion

Rainfall anomalies have long occupied center stage in policy discussions, and understanding their impacts on agricultural production has become more important as climate change intensifies. However, the global scale of rainfall-induced productivity shocks on changes in cropland is yet to be quantified. Here we identify how rainfall anomalies impact observed patterns of cropped areas at a global scale by leveraging locally determined unexpected variations in rainfall. Employing disaggregated panel data at the grid level, we find that repeated dry anomalies lead to an increase in cropland expansion in developing countries. No discernible effects are detected from repeated wet events. That these effects are confined to developing countries, which are often dominated by small-holder farmers, implies that they may be in response to reduced yields. The estimates suggest that overall, in developing countries, dry anomalies account for ∼9% of the rate of cropland expansion over the past two decades. We perform several tests to check for consistency and robustness of this relationship. First, using forest cover as an alternative measure, we find comparable reductions in forest cover in the same regions where cropland expands due to repeated dry anomalies. Second, we test the relationship in regions where yields are buffered from rainfall anomalies by irrigation infrastructure and find that the impact on cropland expansion is mitigated, providing further support for our results. Since cropland expansion is a significant driver of deforestation, these results have important implications for forest loss and environmental services.

Multivariate climate departures have outpaced univariate changes across global lands

Changes in individual climate variables have been widely documented over the past century. However, assessments that consider changes in the collective interaction amongst multiple climate variables are relevant for understanding climate impacts on ecological and human systems yet are less well documented than univariate changes. We calculate annual multivariate climate departures during 1958-2017 relative to a baseline 1958-1987 period that account for covariance among four variables important to Earth's biota and associated systems: annual climatic water deficit, annual evapotranspiration, average minimum temperature of the coldest month, and average maximum temperature of the warmest month. Results show positive trends in multivariate climate departures that were nearly three times that of univariate climate departures across global lands. Annual multivariate climate departures exceeded two standard deviations over the past decade for approximately 30% of global lands. Positive trends in climate departures over the last six decades were found to be primarily the result of changes in mean climate conditions consistent with the modeled effects of anthropogenic climate change rather than changes in variability. These results highlight the increasing novelty of annual climatic conditions viewed through a multivariate lens and suggest that changes in multivariate climate departures have generally outpaced univariate departures in recent decades.

Reproductive success of Eastern Bluebirds (Sialia sialis) varies with the timing and severity of drought

Drought affects avian communities in complex ways. We used our own and citizen science-generated reproductive data acquired through The Cornell Lab of Ornithology’s NestWatch Program, combined with drought and vegetation indices obtained from governmental agencies, to determine drought effects on Eastern Bluebird (Sialia sialis L.) reproduction across their North American breeding range for the years 2006–2013. Our results demonstrate that some aspects of bluebird reproductive success vary with the timing and severity of drought. Clutch size was unaffected by any level of drought at the time of clutch initiation or during the 30 to 60 days prior to clutch initiation. Hatching and fledging rates decreased as drought severity increased. Drought conditions occurring at least 30 days prior to the date eggs should have hatched and 60 days prior to the date offspring should have fledged negatively affected reproduction. We also demonstrate the value of datasets generated by citizen scientists in combination with climate data for examining biotic responses at large temporal and spatial scales.

Concurrent 2018 Hot Extremes Across Northern Hemisphere Due to Human-Induced Climate Change

Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human-induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring-to-summer season was characterized by several major heat and dry extremes. On daily average between May and July 2018 about 22% of the populated and agricultural areas north of 30° latitude experienced concurrent hot temperature extremes. Events of this type were unprecedented prior to 2010, while similar conditions were experienced in the 2010 and 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations of present-day climate, that is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display an increase of concurrent heat extremes. Based on Earth System Model simulations, we show that it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) that the 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events would not have occurred without human-induced climate change. Our results further reveal that the average high-exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 °C of global warming. A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the risks of unprecedented global-scale heat wave impacts.