Acceleration of ice loss across the Himalayas over the past 40 years

Study of the patterns of variations in ice lakes and the factors influencing these changes on the southeastern Tibetan plateau

The ice lakes in the southeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau have exhibited a pronounced expansion against the backdrop of global warming, consequently amplifying the local risk of ice lake outburst disasters. However, surveys of ice lake changes in the entire region have consistently been incomplete due to the prevalent high cloud density. On the basis of Landsat remote sensing images and the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform, in this study, the full convolution segmentation algorithm is utilized to accurately and comprehensively map the regional distribution of ice lakes in southeastern Tibet at consistent time intervals in 1993, 2008, and 2023. Furthermore, the formation, distribution, and dynamic changes in these ice lakes are investigated. The numbers of ice lakes discovered in 1993, 2008, and 2023 were 2520, 3198, and 3877, respectively. These lakes covered areas of approximately 337.64 ± 36.86 km2, 363.92 ± 40.90 km2, and 395.74 ± 22.72 km2, respectively. These ice lakes are located primarily between altitudes of 4442 m and 4909 m. The total area experienced an annual growth rate of approximately 0.57 % from 1993 to 2023. In the present study, the long-term variations in ice lakes in each district and county are examined. These findings indicate that between 1993 and 2023, the expansion of ice lakes was more pronounced in regions with a large number of marine glaciers. Notably, Basu County presented the highest annual growth rate of the ice lake population, at 6.23 %, followed by Bomi County, at 4.28 %, and finally, Zayul County, at 2.94 %. The accelerated shrinkage of marine glaciers induced by global warming is the primary driver behind the expansion of ice lakes. The results obtained from this research will enhance our overall understanding of the complex dynamics and mechanisms that govern the formation of ice lakes while also offering valuable perspectives on the potential risks linked to their expansion in this particular area.

The potential of historical spy-satellite imagery to support research in ecology and conservation

Remote sensing data are important for assessing ecological change, but their value is often restricted by their limited temporal coverage. Major historical events that affected the environment, such as those associated with colonial history, World War II, or the Green Revolution are not captured by modern remote sensing. In the present article, we highlight the potential of globally available black-and-white satellite photographs to expand ecological and conservation assessments back to the 1960s and to illuminate ecological concepts such as shifting baselines, time-lag responses, and legacy effects. This historical satellite photography can be used to monitor ecosystem extent and structure, species' populations and habitats, and human pressures on the environment. Even though the data were declassified decades ago, their use in ecology and conservation remains limited. But recent advances in image processing and analysis can now unlock this research resource. We encourage the use of this opportunity to address important ecological and conservation questions.

Unveiling of climate change-driven decline of suitable habitat for Himalayan bumblebees

Insect pollinators, especially bumblebees are rapidly declining from their natural habitat in the mountain and temperate regions of the world due to climate change and other anthropogenic activities. We still lack reliable information about the current and future habitat conditions of bumblebees in the Himalaya. In this study, we used the maximum entropy algorithm for SDM to look at current and future (in 2050 and 2070) suitable habitats for bumblebees in the Himalaya. We found that the habitat conditions in the Himalayan mountain range do not have a very promising future as suitable habitat for most species will decrease over the next 50 years. By 2050, less than 10% of the Himalayan area will remain a suitable habitat for about 72% of species, and by 2070 this number will be raised to 75%. During this time period, the existing suitable habitat of bumblebees will be declined but some species will find new suitable habitat which clearly indicates possibility of habitat range shift by Himalayan bumblebees. Overall, about 15% of the Himalayan region is currently highly suitable for bumblebees, which should be considered as priority areas for the conservation of these pollinators. Since suitable habitats for bumblebees lie between several countries, nations that share international borders in the Himalayan region should have international agreements for comprehensive pollinator diversity conservation to protect these indispensable ecosystem service providers.

Long-term annual and seasonal mass balance reconstruction and sensitivity analysis of Chhota Shigri Glacier in Western Himalaya

Glaciers, in general, are sensitive to changes in the climate but Himalayan glaciers, in particular, are highly affected by climate change. Mass balance (MB) of glaciers is one of the important parameters to examine the response of glaciers to climate variability and change. The study of mass balance sensitivity (MBS) due to climate perturbations for glaciers is also important to understand future behavior of the glaciers. For Chhota Shigri Glacier, research on the estimation of long-term annual and seasonal MB and MBS as well as equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) and accumulation area ration (AAR) sensitivity analysis is not reported in detail. Accordingly, the present study carries out a detailed analysis of annual and seasonal MBS from 1953 to 2014 using annual and monthly climate perturbations as well as ELA and AAR sensitivities for the Chhota Shigri Glacier. The long-term annual and seasonal MB of Chhota Shigri Glacier from 1953 to 2014 is reconstructed using distributed temperature-index model by simulating minimal model parameters, namely melt factor, snow, and ice radiations using Monte-Carlo simulation. The mean annual MB of Chhota Shigri was -0.28 ± 0.41 m w.e./year during 1953-2014. The annual MB decreased from - 0.09 ± 0.41 m w.e./year (1953-1968) to - 0.57 ± 0.41 m w.e./year (2000-2014). The estimated MBS of Chhota Shigri Glacier is 0.57 m w.e./°C due to temperature change which is high and can be attributed to the presence of significantly less debris-covered ice in Chhota Shigri Glacier. It is analyzed that ELA and AAR of Chhota Shigri Glacier will change to + 107.7 m a.s.l. and - 15.03% respectively due to increase in temperature by + 1 °C. Further, ~ 38% more precipitation is required to compensate for the change in MB, ELA and AAR which will occur due to + 1 °C temperature rise. The findings of the present study will also support the estimation of future MB of Chhota Shigri Glacier using minimal simulated model parameters for distributed temperature-index model which have been found to produce good results using long term high resolution climate data.

Enhanced glacial lake activity threatens numerous communities and infrastructure in the Third Pole

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are among the most severe cryospheric hazards in the Third Pole, encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding Himalayas, Hindu Kush, and Tianshan Mountains. Recent studies on glacial lake changes and GLOF characteristics and risks in this region have shown scattered and insufficiently detailed features. Here, we conduct an appraisal of the GLOF risks by combining high-resolution satellite images, case-by-case high-precision GLOF modeling, and detailed downstream exposure data. The glacial lake changes from 2018 to 2022 in the region were primarily driven by the accelerated expansion of proglacial lakes. The GLOF frequency has exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1980, with intensified activity in Southeastern Tibet and the China-Nepal border area over the past decade. Approximately 6,353 km2 of land could be at risk from potential GLOFs, posing threats to 55,808 buildings, 105 hydropower projects, 194 km2 of farmland, 5,005 km of roads, and 4,038 bridges. This study directly responds to the need for local disaster prevention and mitigation strategies, highlighting the urgent requirement of reducing GLOF threats in the Third Pole and the importance of regional cooperation.

Quantifying evolution of soot mixing state from transboundary transport of biomass burning emissions

Incomplete combustion of fossil fuels and biomass burning emit large amounts of soot particles into the troposphere. The condensation process is considered to influence the size (Dp) and mixing state of soot particles, which affects their solar absorption efficiency and lifetimes. However, quantifying aging evolution of soot remains hampered in the real world because of complicated sources and observation technologies. In the Himalayas, we isolated soot sourced from transboundary transport of biomass burning and revealed soot aging mechanisms through microscopic observations. Most of coated soot particles stabilized one soot core under Dp < 400 nm, but 34.8% of them contained multi-soot cores (nsoot ≥ 2) and nsoot increased 3-9 times with increasing Dp. We established the soot mixing models to quantify transformation from condensation- to coagulation-dominant regime at Dp ≈ 400 nm. Studies provide essential references for adopting mixing rules and quantifying the optical absorption of soot in atmospheric models.

Long-term analysis of glaciers and glacier lakes in the Central and Eastern Himalaya

Himalayan glaciers represent both an important source of water and a major suite of geohazards for inhabitants of their downstream regions. Recent climate change has intersected with local topographic, geomorphic, and glaciological factors to drive complex patterns of glacier thinning, retreat, velocity change, and lake development. In this study, we analyze the long-term variations in surface elevation change and velocity of the glaciers in the Central and Eastern Himalaya using existing and newly generated datasets spanning 1975 to 2018. We have used modelled (e.g., debris and ice thickness) and remote sensing datasets (e.g., Corona, Hexagon, and Landsat images) to investigate the impact of debris cover and the evolution of proglacial lakes on the glacier response in the region. We found that lake-terminating glaciers (lake TGs) have significantly higher thinning, velocity, and deceleration over time than land-terminating glaciers (land TGs). Lakes have shown an overall growth of 98 % in area and 40 % in number during 1975-2017. New proglacial lakes will likely continue to develop, and existing ones will keep expanding, influencing the frontal changes and dynamics of the lake-terminating glaciers. Debris-covered glaciers have undergone similar thinning compared to clean-ice glaciers, both for lake and land TGs; however, variations exist across the ablation zones between clean and debris-covered glaciers which this study further explores using a data-driven approach. Overall, the proglacial lakes development, changes in debris coverage, and topography significantly affect the glacier responses in the regions.

Frontal changes in medium-sized glaciers in Sikkim, India during 1988-2018: Insights for glacier-climate synthesis over the Himalaya

The study assesses terminus retreat of medium-sized glaciers (1988-2018) using geospatial dataset and field study in Sikkim which is under the direct influence of the Indian SW monsoon. It also explores the causes of intra-regional and inter-regional diverse patterns of glacier retreat under the purview of topographical and climatic factors to develop a glacier-climate synthesis over the region. Glaciers have retreated in a range from 63.9 to 3.9 m yr-1 and lost a total area of ∼2.53% (0.08% yr-1) in the study area. The intra-regional heterogeneity in glaciers retreat seems to be caused by topographical factors in the study area. A comparison of glacier retreats with other parts of the Himalayas reveals a declining gradient from the northwest to the eastern Himalayas, broadly. This inter-regional disparity in the retreat rate seems to be caused by existing climatic regimes over different parts of the Himalayas. The results help to comprehend the glacier-climate synthesis over the Himalayan region.

Aerosols heat up the Himalayan climate

The impact of aerosols, especially the absorbing aerosols, in the Himalayan region is important for climate. We closely examine ground-based high-quality observations of aerosol characteristics including radiative forcing from several locations in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), the Himalayan foothills and the Tibetan Plateau, relatively poorly studied regions with several sensitive ecosystems of global importance, as well as highly vulnerable large populations. This paper presents a state-of-the-art treatment of the warming that arises from these particles, using a combination of new measurements and modeling techniques. This is a first-time analysis of its kind, including ground-based observations, satellite data, and model simulations, which reveals that the aerosol radiative forcing efficiency (ARFE) in the atmosphere is clearly high over the IGP and the Himalayan foothills (80-135 Wm-2 per unit aerosol optical depth (AOD)), with values being greater at higher elevations. AOD is >0.30 and single scattering albedo (SSA) is ∼0.90 throughout the year over this region. The mean ARFE is 2-4 times higher here than over other polluted sites in South and East Asia, owing to higher AOD and aerosol absorption (i.e., lower SSA). Further, the observed annual mean aerosol-induced atmospheric heating rates (0.5-0.8 Kelvin/day), which are significantly higher than previously reported values for the region, imply that the aerosols alone could account for >50 % of the total warming (aerosols + greenhouse gases) of the lower atmosphere and surface over this region. We demonstrate that the current state-of-the-art models used in climate assessments significantly underestimate aerosol-induced heating, efficiency and warming over the Hindu Kush - Himalaya - Tibetan Plateau (HKHTP) region, indicating a need for a more realistic representation of aerosol properties, especially of black carbon and other aerosols. The significant, regionally coherent aerosol-induced warming that we observe in the high altitudes of the region, is a significant factor contributing to increasing air temperature, observed accelerated retreat of the glaciers, and changes in the hydrological cycle and precipitation patterns over this region. Thus, aerosols are heating up the Himalayan climate, and will remain a key factor driving climate change over the region.

Heterogeneity in glacier thinning and slowdown of ice movement in the Garhwal Himalaya, India

Limited ground-based surveys and extensive remote sensing analyses have confirmed glacier thinning in the Garhwal Himalaya. More detailed studies on specific glaciers and the drivers of reported changes are essential to comprehend small-scale differences in the effects of climatic warming on Himalayan glaciers. We computed elevation changes and surface flow distribution for 205 (≥0.1 km²) glaciers in the Alaknanda, Bhagirathi, and Mandakini basins, all located in the Garhwal Himalaya, India. This study also investigates a detailed integrated analysis of elevation changes and surface flow velocities for 23 glaciers with varying characteristics to understand the impact of ice thickness loss on overall glacier dynamics. We observed significant heterogeneity in glacier thinning and surface flow velocity patterns using temporal DEMs and optical satellite images with ground-based verification. The average thinning rate was found to be 0.07 ± 0.09 m a^-1 from 2000 to 2015, and it increased to 0.31 ± 0.19 m a^-1 from 2015 to 2020, with pronounced differences between individual glaciers. Between 2000 and 2015, Gangotri Glacier thinned nearly twice as much as the neighbouring Chorabari and Companion glaciers, which have thicker supraglacial debris that protects the beneath ice from melting. The transitional zone between debris-covered and clean ice glaciers showed substantial flow during the observation period. However, the lower reaches of their debris-covered terminus areas are almost stagnant. These glaciers experienced a significant slowdown (~25 %) between 1993-1994 and 2020-2021, and only the Gangotri Glacier was active even in its terminus region during most observational periods. The decreasing surface gradient reduces the driving stress and causes slow-down surface flow velocities and an increase in stagnant ice. Surface lowering of these glaciers may have substantial long-term impacts on downstream communities and lowland populations, including more frequent cryospheric hazards, which may threaten future water and livelihood security.

Assessment of potential present and future glacial lake outburst flood hazard in the Hunza valley: A case study of Shisper and Mochowar glacier

In Himalayas, new glacial lake formation and expansion of existing glacial lakes have occurred as a consequence of the increasing temperature and glacier recession. These lakes have the potential to release catastrophic volumes of water and trigger a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). GLOFs can cause devastating downstream impacts including loss of lives, damage to infrastructure, and economic loss. The risk associated with GLOFs is evident in the case of the Mochowar and the Shisper glaciers of the Hunza valley in the Karakoram ranges. The present study is divided in two parts: 1) investigation of the recent GLOF event from the Shisper glacier ice-dammed lake on 7th May 2022. 2) identification of an overdeepening site for future lake formation at the Mochowar glacier and its future GLOF susceptibility; We used the Himalayan Glacier Thickness Mapper (HIGTHIM) to calculate the thickness of Mochowar glacier and identify an overdeepening site at its terminus. This site could host a glacial lake of area 0.22 km² and a mean depth of 58.97 m that can release a potential flood volume leading to cascading effects with the Shisper ice-dammed lake that further increases the GLOF susceptibility. The GLOF susceptibility of this future lake was determined to be high based on a multi-criterion decision analysis. The recent GLOF event of 7th May 2022 occurred from the Shisper glacier ice-dammed lake. We applied a 2D hydrodynamic model for investigating this GLOF episode and estimated a release volume of 6.23 × 10⁶ m³, with a modelled peak discharge of approximately 1505 m³ s^-1.

Enhanced aerosols over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau induced by open biomass burning in spring 2020

The Tibetan Plateau is the third pole of the world, with an essential role in regulating Northern Hemisphere climate. Previous studies showed that atmospheric aerosols over the Tibetan Plateau are influenced by biomass burning (BB) products from South and Southeast Asia. In fact, open biomass burning (OBB) is also an important form of BB in Southeast Asian countries, causing serious springtime air pollution yearly. However, there are still scientific gaps in the contribution of OBB to surrounding regional aerosols, especially on the Tibetan Plateau. In order to quantify this contribution, we collected samples of fine particulate matter and derived the concentrations of major water soluble ion, water soluble organic carbon (WSOC), and total carbon (TC) and total nitrogen (TN) as well as the dual isotopic compositions of carbon and nitrogen (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) during March-June on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau. δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N showed no significant difference (p > 0.05) between the OBB and non-OBB periods. Furthermore, both δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N (-25.7 ± 0.7 ‰ and 8.0 ± 3.6 ‰) values calculated during the whole sampling period were similar to the BB value, indicating that the primary source of TC and TN in aerosols was BB, whether OBB or non-OBB burning periods. TC and TN concentrations during the OBB period (6.5 ± 2.9 μg m^-3 and 1.2 ± 0.4 μg m^-3, respectively) were significantly higher than during the non-OBB period (4.1 ± 1.7 μg m^-3, with p = 0.014, and 0.7 ± 0.3 μg m^-3, with p = 0.013, respectively). Active fire data and surface smoke concentrations further indicated that BB emissions from Southeast Asia were higher during the OBB period. This suggests that OBB-related high BB emissions significantly enhanced atmospheric aerosols concentrations on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

On periodic growth and shrinkage of glaciers in the Warwan sub-basin, western Himalaya, between 1990 and 2020

Knowledge about glacier extent, dynamics, and characteristics are important for climate change attribution and prediction. Understanding on long-term dynamics and glacier inventory is crucial, particularly for the melt-dominated and latitudinally-diverse western Himalayan glacier basins. In this study, a temporal inventory is prepared for Warwan-sub basin (WSB), utilizing satellite imageries since the 1993 (Landsat TM: 1993; ETM⁺: 2001, 2008; OLI: 2020) and elevation model (SRTM DEM: 2000). The base inventory was generated for the year 2001 and systematically adjusted to the glacier situations in 1993, 2008, and 2020. Results indicate that in the year 2001, WSB in the western Himalaya included 84 glaciers (> 0.02 km²) covering an area of 187.9 ± 5.8 km². The mapping (2001) further revealed a supraglacial debris cover of 15% of the glacierized area (28.2 ± 0.9 km²). Overall, the debris cover increased by 6% between 1993 and 2020. Temporal analyses clearly suggest a period of gain in the glacierized area (2001-2008) interspersed by the two phases of decline (1993-2001 and 2008-2020). Results specify a stronger decline in the glacierized area during 1993 to 2001 (197.03 ± 6.1 to 187.9 ± 5.8 km²) than between 2008 and 2020 (188.4 ± 5.9 to 182.8 ± 5.66 km²). Remarkably, the glacierized area increased from 187.9 ± 5.8 to 188.4 ± 5.8 km² during 2001 to 2008. In view of widespread recession of regional glaciers, the gain in the area between 2001 and 2008 represents a peculiar characteristic of WSB that needs further detailed investigation. Further analyses suggest that low-altitude, east-facing, debris-free, steep-sloped, and small glaciers experienced greater loss in the area than large, debris-covered, north-facing, gently sloped, and high-altitude glaciers. Overall, the study at the sub-basin scale reveals inherent glacier dynamics with periodic increase and decrease in the glacierized area and a notable influence of non-climatic factors in regulating spatial heterogeneity and the rate of glacier changes.

Measuring glacier mass changes from space-a review

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are currently losing mass rapidly with direct and severe impacts on the habitability of some regions on Earth as glacier meltwater contributes to sea-level rise and alters regional water resources in arid regions. In this review, we present the different techniques developed during the last two decades to measure glacier mass change from space: digital elevation model (DEM) differencing from stereo-imagery and synthetic aperture radar interferometry, laser and radar altimetry and space gravimetry. We illustrate their respective strengths and weaknesses to survey the mass change of a large Arctic ice body, the Vatnajökull Ice Cap (Iceland) and for the steep glaciers of the Everest area (Himalaya). For entire regions, mass change estimates sometimes disagree when a similar technique is applied by different research groups. At global scale, these discrepancies result in mass change estimates varying by 20%-30%. Our review confirms the need for more thorough inter-comparison studies to understand the origin of these differences and to better constrain regional to global glacier mass changes and, ultimately, past and future glacier contribution to sea-level rise.

Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) represent a major hazard and can result in significant loss of life. Globally, since 1990, the number and size of glacial lakes has grown rapidly along with downstream population, while socio-economic vulnerability has decreased. Nevertheless, contemporary exposure and vulnerability to GLOFs at the global scale has never been quantified. Here we show that 15 million people globally are exposed to impacts from potential GLOFs. Populations in High Mountains Asia (HMA) are the most exposed and on average live closest to glacial lakes with ~1 million people living within 10 km of a glacial lake. More than half of the globally exposed population are found in just four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China. While HMA has the highest potential for GLOF impacts, we highlight the Andes as a region of concern, with similar potential for GLOF impacts to HMA but comparatively few published research studies.

Variability of ambient black carbon concentration in the Central Himalaya and its assessment over the Hindu Kush Himalayan region

During 2015-2018, eight black carbon (BC) monitoring sites were established in Nepal and Bhutan to fill a significant data gap regarding BC measurement in Central Himalaya. This manuscript analyzes and presents data from these eight stations and one additional station on the Tibetan plateau (TP). Complex topography, varied emission sources, and atmospheric transport pathways significantly impacted the BC concentrations across these stations, with annual mean concentrations varying from 36 ng m^-3 to 45,737 ng m^-3. Higher annual mean concentrations (5609 ± 4515 ng m^-3) were recorded at low-altitude sites than in other locations, with seasonal concentrations highest in the winter (7316 ± 2541 ng m^-3). In contrast, the annual mean concentrations were lowest at high-altitude sites (376 ± 448 ng m^-3); the BC concentrations at these sites peaked during the pre-monsoon season (930 ± 685 ng m^-3). Potential source contributions to the total observed BC were analyzed using the absorption angstrom exponent (AAE). AAE analysis showed the dominance of biomass burning sources (>50 %), except in Kathmandu. By combining our data with previously published literature, we put our measurements in perspective by presenting a comprehensive assessment of BC concentrations and their variability over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. The BC levels in all three geographic regions, high, mid, and low altitude significantly influenced by the persistent seasonal meteorology. However, the mid-altitude stations were substantially affected by valley dynamics and urbanization. The low-altitude stations experienced high BC concentrations during the winter and post-monsoon seasons. Concentration weighted trajectory (CWT) and frequency analyses revealed the dominance of long-range transported pollution during winter over HKH, from west to east. South Asian sources remained significant during the monsoon season. During pre- and post-monsoon, the local, regional, and long-distance pollution varied depending on the location of the receptor site.

Less extreme and earlier outbursts of ice-dammed lakes since 1900

Episodic failures of ice-dammed lakes have produced some of the largest floods in history, with disastrous consequences for communities in high mountains^1-7. Yet, estimating changes in the activity of ice-dam failures through time remains controversial because of inconsistent regional flood databases. Here, by collating 1,569 ice-dam failures in six major mountain regions, we systematically assess trends in peak discharge, volume, annual timing and source elevation between 1900 and 2021. We show that extreme peak flows and volumes (10 per cent highest) have declined by about an order of magnitude over this period in five of the six regions, whereas median flood discharges have fallen less or have remained unchanged. Ice-dam floods worldwide today originate at higher elevations and happen about six weeks earlier in the year than in 1900. Individual ice-dammed lakes with repeated outbursts show similar negative trends in magnitude and earlier occurrence, although with only moderate correlation to glacier thinning⁸. We anticipate that ice dams will continue to fail in the near future, even as glaciers thin and recede. Yet widespread deglaciation, projected for nearly all regions by the end of the twenty-first century⁹, may bring most outburst activity to a halt.

Regional and tele-connected impacts of the Tibetan Plateau surface darkening

Despite knowledge of the presence of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in reorganizing large-scale atmospheric circulation, it remains unclear how surface albedo darkening over TP will impact local glaciers and remote Asian monsoon systems. Here, we use a coupled land-atmosphere global climate model and a glacier model to address these questions. Under a high-emission scenario, TP surface albedo darkening will increase local temperature by 0.24 K by the end of this century. This warming will strengthen the elevated heat pump of TP, increasing South Asian monsoon precipitation while exacerbating the current "South Flood-North Drought" pattern over East Asia. The albedo darkening-induced climate change also leads to an accompanying TP glacier volume loss of 6.9%, which further increases to 25.2% at the equilibrium, with a notable loss in western TP. Our findings emphasize the importance of land-surface change responses in projecting future water resource availability, with important implications for water management policies.

Environmental micro-niche filtering shapes bacterial pioneer communities during primary colonization of a Himalayas' glacier forefield

The pedogenesis from the mineral substrate released upon glacier melting has been explained with the succession of consortia of pioneer microorganisms, whose structure and functionality are determined by the environmental conditions developing in the moraine. However, the microbiome variability that can be expected in the environmentally heterogeneous niches occurring in a moraine at a given successional stage is poorly investigated. In a 50 m² area in the forefield of the Lobuche glacier (Himalayas, 5050 m above sea level), we studied six sites of primary colonization presenting different topographical features (orientation, elevation and slope) and harbouring greyish/dark biological soil crusts (BSCs). The spatial vicinity of the sites opposed to their topographical differences, allowed us to examine the effect of environmental conditions independently from the time of deglaciation. The bacterial microbiome diversity and their co-occurrence network, the bacterial metabolisms predicted from 16S rRNA gene high-throughput sequencing, and the microbiome intact polar lipids were investigated in the BSCs and the underlying sediment deep layers (DLs). Different bacterial microbiomes inhabited the BSCs and the DLs, and their composition varied among sites, indicating a niche-specific role of the micro-environmental conditions in the bacterial communities' assembly. In the heterogeneous sediments of glacier moraines, physico-chemical and micro-climatic variations at the site-spatial scale are crucial in shaping the microbiome microvariability and structuring the pioneer bacterial communities during pedogenesis.

South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower

Long-range transport of black carbon from South Asia to the Tibetan plateau and its deposition on glaciers directly enhances glacier melt. Here we find South Asian black carbon also has an indirect effect on the plateau's glaciers shrinkage by acting to reduce the water supply over the southern Tibetan plateau. Black carbon enhances vertical convection and cloud condensation, which results in water vapor depletion over the Indian subcontinent that is the main moisture flux source for the southern Tibetan plateau. Increasing concentrations of black carbon causes a decrease in summer precipitation over the southern Tibetan plateau, resulting in 11.0% glacier deficit mass balance on average from 2007 to 2016; this loss rises to 22.1% in the Himalayas. The direct (accelerated melt) and indirect (mass supply decrease) effects of black carbon are driving the glacial mass decline of the so-called "Asian Water Tower".

Vegetation cover dynamics along two Himalayan rivers: Drivers and implications of change

Rivers are dynamic landscape features that change in response to natural and anthropogenic factors through hydrological, geomorphic and ecological processes. The severity and magnitude of human impacts on river system and riparian vegetation has dramatically increased over the last century with the proliferation of valley-spanning dams, intensification of agriculture, urbanization, and more widespread channel engineering. This study aims to determine how changes in geomorphic form and dynamics caused by these human alterations relate to changes in channels and riparian vegetation in the lower Beas and Sutlej Rivers. These rivers are tributaries of the Indus that drain the Western Himalayas but differ in the type and magnitude of geomorphic change in recent decades. Winter season vegetation was analysed over 30 years, revealing increasing trends in vegetated land cover in the valleys of both rivers, consistent with large-scale drivers of change. Greater trends within the active channels indicate upstream drivers are influencing river flow and geomorphology, vegetation growth and human exploitation. The spatial patterns of vegetation change differ between the rivers, emphasizing how upstream human activities (dams and abstraction) control geomorphic and vegetation community response within the landscape context of the river. The increasing area of vegetated land is reinforcing the local evolutionary trajectory of the river planform from wide-braided wandering to single thread meandering. Narrowing of the active channels is altering the balance of resource provision and risk exposure to people. New areas being exploited for agriculture are exposed to greater risk from river erosion, inundation, and sediment deposition. Moreover, the change from braided to meandering planform has concentrated erosion on riverbanks, placing communities and infrastructure at risk. By quantifying and evaluating the spatial variations in vegetation cover around these rivers, we can better understand the interaction of vegetation and geomorphology alongside the impacts of human activity and climate change in these, and many similar, large systems, which can inform sustainable development.

The rapid vegetation line shift in response to glacial dynamics and climate variability in Himalaya between 2000 and 2014

Climate change is causing glaciers to retreat across much of the Himalaya, leading to a rapid shift of the vegetation cover to higher altitudes. However, the rate of vegetation shift with respect to glacier retreat, climate change, and topographic parameters is not empirically quantified. Using remote sensing measurements, we estimate (a) the rate of glacier-ice mass loss, (b) the upward vegetation line shift rate, (c) regional greening trends, and (d) a relationship between the factors influencing the greenness of the landscape and vegetation change in the Himalaya. We find that the glacier mass loss rate is 10.9 ± 1.2 Gt/yr and the mean vegetation line shifts upward in altitude by 7-28 ± 1.5 m/yr. Considering the land use/land cover change pattern, the grassland area is found to be expanding the most, particularly in the de-glaciated regions. The vegetation change is found to be controlled by soil moisture and slope of the area.

Ice thickness distribution of Himalayan glaciers inferred from DInSAR-based glacier surface velocity

Retrieval of glacier ice thickness is extremely important for monitoring water resources and predicting glacier dynamics and changes. The inter-annual glacier ice thickness observations (more than 5 years) exploit the glacier mass changes. Ice thickness is one of the important parameters to predict the future sea-level rise. Without adequate knowledge and precise information of glacier ice thickness distribution, future sea-level changes cannot be accurately assessed. In this study, we use an existing flow model to estimate the ice thickness of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) glaciers, using remote sensing techniques. The glacier ice velocity is one of the significant parameters in the Laminar flow model to retrieve the ice thickness. The glacier ice velocity is derived by utilizing the Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) technique. The most optimum DInSAR data (ALOS-2/PALSAR-2) is used for estimating the ice velocity of the HMA glaciers. The ice thickness is mainly estimated for five different states in the HMA region, namely Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal Pradesh. Most of the states are observed with a mean ice thickness of 100 m. Five benchmark glaciers (Samudra Tapu, Bara Shigri, Chhota Shigri, Sakchum, and Gangotri glaciers) are also selected for validating our results with the existing thickness information. The issues related to velocity-based ice thickness inversion are also emphasized in this study. The high-velocity rate due to the influx of melting water from adjacent glaciers causes an increment in the flow rate. This abnormal velocity derives erroneous ice thickness measurements. This is one of the major problems to be considered in the velocity-based thickness-derived procedures. Finally, the investigation suggests the inclusion of the velocity influencing parameters in the physical-based models for an accurate ice thickness inversion.

Multiple Adaptive Strategies of Himalayan Iodobacter sp. PCH194 to High-Altitude Stresses

Bacterial adaption to the multiple stressed environments of high-altitude niches in the Himalayas is intriguing and is of considerable interest to biotechnologists. Previously, we studied the culturable and unculturable metagenome microbial diversity from glacial and kettle lakes in the Western Himalayas. In this study, we explored the adaptive strategies of a unique Himalayan eurypsychrophile Iodobacter sp. PCH194, which can synthesize polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) and violacein pigment. Whole-genome sequencing and analysis of Iodobacter sp. PCH194 (4.58 Mb chromosome and three plasmids) revealed genetic traits associated with adaptive strategies for cold/freeze, nutritional fluctuation, defense against UV, acidic pH, and the kettle lake's competitive environment. Differential proteome analysis suggested the adaptive role of chaperones, ribonucleases, secretion systems, and antifreeze proteins under cold stress. Antifreeze activity inhibiting the ice recrystallization at −9°C demonstrated the bacterium's survival at subzero temperature. The bacterium stores carbon in the form of PHB under stress conditions responding to nutritional fluctuations. However, violacein pigment protects the cells from UV radiation. Concisely, genomic, proteomic, and physiological studies revealed the multiple adaptive strategies of Himalayan Iodobacter to survive the high-altitude stresses.

Glacier mass balance estimation in Garhwal Himalaya using improved accumulation area ratio method

Water requirements of the mountain communities living in the Himalaya are supported by snow and glacier melt. The availability of water from the source depends on numerous climatic and glacier parameters. One key parameter is mass balance, which helps to assess the glacier health and future water availability. We have used the improved accumulation area ratio (IAAR) method to estimate mass balance in Alaknanda and Bhagirathi basins, constituting 1055 glaciers covering ~1609 km². The mean Equilibrium Line Altitude (ELA) of the Alaknanda and Bhagirathi basins are estimated as 6147 ± 130 and 5985 ± 130 m.a.s.l, respectively. The mass balance is estimated using the accumulation area ratio (AAR)-mass balance relationship. The mean specific mass balance of the Alaknanda and Bhagirathi for 2001-2013 is estimated as -1.1 ± 0.03 m.w.e.a^-1 and -1.01 ± 0.07 m.w.e.a^-1, respectively. Total mass loss from the study area is calculated as ~21.4 ± 1.1Gt during this period. The loss of glaciers in the mountain area will increase the vulnerability of communities living in the region. It suggests a need for better adaptation strategies to improve the resilience of high mountain communities.

Dynamics and Causes of Sea Level Rise in the Coastal Region of Southwest Bangladesh at Global, Regional, and Local Levels

Global greenhouse gas emissions have caused sea level rise (SLR) at a global and local level since the industrial revolution, mainly through thermal expansion and ice melting. Projections indicate that the acceleration of SLR will increase in the near future. This will affect coastal and deltaic populations worldwide, such as in Bangladesh, where almost half of the population resides in regions lower than 5 m above sea level. This study analyzed three coastal tidal gauges and five deltaic gauge stations, which showed increases in SLR at greater rates than the regional and global averages. This research also used satellite altimetry data to analyze regional and global SLR averages in the recent past and the 21st century. There is a trend towards increasing sea level based on results from three tide gauge stations: Char Changa with 7.6 mm/yr, Hiron Point at 3.1 mm/yr from 1993 to 2019, and 14.5 mm/yr at Cox’s Bazar from 1993 to 2011. Based on the linear trend from these time frames, it is projected that SLR in Char Changa will increase by 228 mm cm from 2020 to 2050, and by 608 mm by 2100, at Hiron Point by 93mm in 2050 and 248 mm by 2100, and at Cox’s Bazar by almost 435.7 mm by 2050, and more than 1162 mm by 2100. Based on an average from satellite altimeters, assuming a linear increase in SLR, the Bay of Bengal shows an increase of 0.4 mm compared to the global trend. Other river delta stations in the study area also show increasing SLR, specifically, at Kalaroa, Benarpota, Kaikhali, Tala Magura, and Elarchari. Kalaroa and Benarpota show the highest, with SLR of >40 mm/yr. It is also observed that increasing SLR trends are far higher than coastal tide gauges, indicating that physical processes in the delta region are affecting SLR, further contributing to either an increase in water volume/SLR or activating land subsidence. This is partly due to the subsidence of the delta as a result of natural and anthropomorphic effects, as well as an increase in Himalayan glacier melting due to global warming. This indicates that Bangladesh coastal areas will soon experience a far greater SLR than the rest of the Bay of Bengal or other global coastal areas.

Distinct impacts of vapor transport from the tropical oceans on the regional glacier retreat over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

An influence of precipitation on the glacier changes over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is investigated in this paper. The results show that the glacial loss rates of glaciers in the QTP are significantly correlated with the interannual changes of precipitation and low cloud cover. The water vapor, importing with the warm and wet airflows from the Asian Monsoon regions, significantly influence the precipitation in the southern and northern glacier areas of the QTP in the summer monsoon season. The three-dimensional changes of water vapor transport can lead to the difference of water balance between different glacier areas. Under global warming, the northwest QTP is in the ascending branch of the vertical water driven thermally by the tropical Indian Ocean. The warm water vapor from the tropical ocean climbs to the QTP, forming a significant supply effect of precipitation in the northwestern glacier area, which makes the glacier retreat at a relatively slow rate. Meanwhile, the southern and southeastern QTP regions are in the descending branch of vapor transport with the declining trend in the lower troposphere, which lead to the shortage water supply aggravating the glacier loss in the southern and southeastern QTP.

Earth Observation to Investigate Occurrence, Characteristics and Changes of Glaciers, Glacial Lakes and Rock Glaciers in the Poiqu River Basin (Central Himalaya)

Meltwater from the cryosphere contributes a significant fraction of the freshwater resources in the countries receiving water from the Third Pole. Within the ESA-MOST Dragon 4 project, we addressed in particular changes of glaciers and proglacial lakes and their interaction. In addition, we investigated rock glaciers in permafrost environments. Here, we focus on the detailed investigations which have been performed in the Poiqu River Basin, central Himalaya. We used in particular multi-temporal stereo satellite imagery, including high-resolution 1960/70s Corona and Hexagon spy images and contemporary Pleiades data. Sentinel-2 data was applied to assess the glacier flow. The results reveal that glacier mass loss continuously increased with a mass budget of −0.42 ± 0.11 m w.e.a−1 for the period 2004–2018. The mass loss has been primarily driven by an increase in summer temperature and is further accelerated by proglacial lakes, which have become abundant. The glacial lake area more than doubled between 1964 and 2017. The termini of glaciers that flow into lakes moved on average twice as fast as glaciers terminating on land, indicating that dynamical thinning plays an important role. Rock glaciers are abundant, covering approximately 21 km2, which was more than 10% of the glacier area (approximately 190 km2) in 2015. With ongoing glacier wastage, rock glaciers can become an increasingly important water resource.

Automated Delineation of Supraglacial Debris Cover Using Deep Learning and Multisource Remote Sensing Data

High-mountain glaciers can be covered with varying degrees of debris. Debris over glaciers (supraglacial debris) significantly alter glacier melt, velocity, ice geometry, and, thus, the overall response of glaciers towards climate change. The accumulated supraglacial debris impedes the automated delineation of glacier extent owing to its similar reflectance properties with surrounding periglacial debris (debris aside the glaciated area). Here, we propose an automated scheme for supraglacial debris mapping using a synergistic approach of deep learning and multisource remote sensing data. A combination of multisource remote sensing data (visible, near-infrared, shortwave infrared, thermal infrared, microwave, elevation, and surface slope) is used as input to a fully connected feed-forward deep neural network (i.e., deep artificial neural network). The presented deep neural network is designed by choosing the optimum number and size of hidden layers using the hit and trial method. The deep neural network is trained over eight sites spread across the Himalayas and tested over three sites in the Karakoram region. Our results show 96.3% accuracy of the model over test data. The robustness of the proposed scheme is tested over 900 km2 and 1710 km2 of glacierized regions, representing a high degree of landscape heterogeneity. The study provides proof of the concept that deep neural networks can potentially automate the debris-covered glacier mapping using multisource remote sensing data.

Sub-national climate change risk assessment: A case analysis for Tibet and its prefecture-level cities

Avoiding climate change from exceeding its critical threshold is a serious challenge facing humanity at present and in the future. As the mode of global cooperative action is stranded, multi-center and multi-level efforts are needed to deal with global warming in the future. In order to provide information for the formulation of low-carbon development policies, it is essential to assess the maintain or cross of climate change threshold on different scales. In this study, the carbon footprint calculated based on the process coefficient approach is systematically integrated with the climate change indicator of the planetary boundaries framework improved with the goals of the Paris Agreement to identify the climate change risks of Tibet and its prefecture-level cities from 2000 to 2017. Moreover, the main driving factors behind carbon footprint were analyzed. The findings showed that: (1) Since 2000, Tibet's CO₂ emissions have demonstrated steady and rapid increase. The sector composition is dominated by cement production-related and transportation sector-related emissions. The type composition is dominated by diesel-related, process-related, and coal-related emissions. There are significant differences in CO₂ emissions among all prefecture-level cities, with Lhasa having the largest contribution. (2) Except for Lhasa and Shannan's CO₂ emissions that have crossed their critical threshold of climate change and are in an unsafe state, Tibet and other prefecture-level cities have not yet crossed their critical threshold. (3) Except for Ngari, per capita GDP, energy intensity, population size, and carbon intensity positively affect the increase of CO₂ emissions in Tibet and its prefecture-level cities. Our study helps actors at less aggregated scales to determine appropriate policy strengths based on globally agreed goals and ambitions in the process of responding to global warming in a bottom-up manner.

An integrative method for identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Himalayas

Glacial lakes in the Himalayas are widely distributed. Since 1900, more than 100 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have originated in the region, causing approximately 7000 deaths and considerable economic losses. Identifying potentially dangerous glacial lakes (PDGLs) is considered the first step in assessing GLOF risks. In this study, a more thorough inventory of PDGLs was presented that included numerous small-sized glacial lakes (<0.1 km²) that were generally neglected in the Himalayas for decades. Moreover, the PDGL evaluation system was improved in response to several deficiencies, such as the selection of assessment factors, which are sometimes arbitrary without a solid scientific basis. We designed an optimality experiment to select the best combination of assessment factors from 57 factors to identify PDGLs. Based on the experiments on both drained and non-drained glacial lakes in the Sunkoshi Basin, eastern Himalayas, five assessment factors were determined to be the best combination: the mean slope of the parent glacier, the potential for mass movement into the lake, the mean slope of moraine dams, the watershed area, and the lake perimeter, corresponding to the GLOF triggers for ice avalanches, rockfalls and landslides, dam instability, heavy precipitation or other liquid inflows, and lake characteristics, respectively. We then applied the best combination of assessment factors to the 1650 glacial lakes with an area greater than 0.02 km² in the Himalayas. We identified 207 glacial lakes as very high-hazard and 345 as high-hazard. It is noteworthy that in various GLOF susceptibility evaluation scenarios with different assessment factors, weighting schemes, and classification approaches, similar results for glacial lakes with high outburst potential have been obtained. The results provided here can be used as benchmark data to assess the GLOF risks for local communities.

Decadal Changes in Glacier Area, Surface Elevation and Mass Balance for 2000–2020 in the Eastern Tanggula Mountains Using Optical Images and TanDEM-X Radar Data

The response of lake-terminating glaciers to climate change is complex, and their rapid changes are often closely linked to glacial-lake outburst floods. However, the eastern Tanggula Mountains, which are the only area where lake-terminating glaciers are found within the Tibetan Plateau, have received little attention to date. In this study, to address this gap, we generated updated glacier boundaries and estimated the interdecadal area changes for 2000–2020 based on the interpretation of Landsat-5/8 and Sentinel-2 images. In addition, based on the method of digital elevation model (DEM) differencing, we quantified the changes in glacier thickness and mass balance using TanDEM-X radar data and SRTM DEM over almost the same periods. The final results show that the glaciers in the eastern Tanggula Mountains, as a whole, have experienced accelerated area shrinkage (with a rate of area loss increasing from −0.34 ± 0.83 km2 a−1 to −0.93 ± 0.81 km2 a−1 for 2000–2013 and 2013–2020, respectively) and accelerated ice thinning (changing from −0.19 ± 0.05 m a−1 and −0.53 ± 0.08 m a−1 for 2000−2012 and 2012–2020, respectively). Furthermore, the region-wide glacier mass balance was −0.16 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1 and −0.45 ± 0.07 m w.e. a−1 for these two sub-periods, corresponding to a 1.8 times acceleration of mass loss rate. The average mass balance during 2000–2020 was −0.23 ± 0.04 m w.e. a−1, which is equivalent to a rate of mass loss of −0.04 Gt a−1. More specifically, within the region, the lake-terminating glaciers have exhibited more significant acceleration of area loss and mass loss, compared to the land-terminating glaciers. However, interestingly, the average thinning rate of the lake-terminating glaciers is always lower than that of the land-terminating glaciers over all study periods, which is in contrast with previous findings in other high mountain areas (e.g., the Himalaya Mountains). Field study and proglacial lakes monitoring suggest that the local topography plays a vital role in the evolution of the glacial lakes in this region, which further affects the glacier changes. Furthermore, the present status of the glacier changes in this region can be attributed to the long-term increase in air temperature. Our findings provide a comprehensive overview of the current state of glacier changes across the eastern Tanggula Mountains and will help to improve the understanding of the heterogeneous response of glaciers to climate change.

Temperature and precipitation changes over the glaciated parts of Indian Himalayan Region during 1901-2016

The existing knowledge on long-term climate trends over glaciated parts of Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) is limited. The present study aims at assessing the long-term (1901-2016) as well as the recent (1990-2016) temperature and precipitation trends over the glaciated parts of western (WH), central (CH) and eastern Himalaya (EH) within the IHR using Climate Research Unit Time Series version 4.01 (CRU TS4.01) data. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator tests were employed to determine the monotonic trend direction and magnitude of change over time on annual and seasonal basis. The temperature and precipitation trends were quantitatively assessed here in terms of percent change over mean as well as in absolute terms. Results show that annual average temperature remains > 0 °C in WH (2.26 °C) and CH (3.24 °C) but < 0 °C in EH (-0.97 °C). Long-term analysis (1901-2016) reveals the maximum warming in EH (74.67% or 0.93 °C) followed by WH (52.56% or 0.64 °C) and minimum in CH (44.31% or 0.73 °C). The winter warming is notably higher (WH: 1.11 °C, CH: 1.19 °C and EH: 1.41 °C) than the summer (WH: 0.31 °C, CH: 0.26 °C and EH: 0.54 °C). Annual precipitation gradually increases from WH (535.57 mm) to CH (749.91 mm) to EH (1249.49 mm), of which 68%, 76%, and 90% respectively, are summer-induced. Nevertheless, precipitation showed no clear trend in WH (slight increase of 4.53%) and EH (slight decrease of -5.30%), but a clear reduction in CH (-19.25%). Seasonally, precipitation decreased in winter (-4.53%) but increased in summer (10.65%) in WH, clearly decreased in both winter (-24.69%) and summer (-17.01%) in CH, and slightly increased in winter (2.21%) but decreased in summer (-6.80%) in EH. In recent decades (1990-2016), warming trend further accelerated in WH (0.95 °C) and CH (1.01 °C) but decreased in EH (0.60 °C). The overall precipitation trends also changed during 1990-2016 as WH experienced an overall reduction (-5%), CH maintained a declining trend (-13.10%), and EH showed slight increase (1.01%). The study concludes that the climate of glaciated parts has changed significantly, but the trend and magnitude is highly heterogeneous over different regions which likely influenced the glaciated environment.

Spatial Distribution of, and Variations in, Cold Regions in China from 1961 to 2019

In this study, on the basis of the temperature data collected at 612 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2019, cold regions were defined using three indicators: an average temperature of <−3.0 °C during the coldest month; less than five months with an average temperature of >10 °C; and an annual average temperature of ≤5 °C. Spatial interpolation, spatial superposition, a trend analysis, and a spatial similarity analysis were used to obtain the spatial distribution of the cold regions in China from 1961 to 2019. Then, the areas of the cold regions and the spatial change characteristics were analyzed. The results reveal that the average area of the cold regions in China from 1961 to 2019 was about 427.70 × 104 km2, accounting for about 44.5% of the total land area. The rate of change of the area of the cold regions from 1961 to 2019 was −14.272 × 104 km2/10 a, exhibiting a very significant decreasing trend. On the basis of the changes between 1991–2019 and 1961–1990, the area of China’s cold regions decreased by 49.32 × 104 km2. The findings of this study provide references for studying changes in the natural environment due to climate change, as well as for studying changes on a global scale.

Expanding or shrinking? range shifts in wild ungulates under climate change in Pamir-Karakoram mountains, Pakistan

Climate change is expected to impact a large number of organisms in many ecosystems, including several threatened mammals. A better understanding of climate impacts on species can make conservation efforts more effective. The Himalayan ibex (Capra ibex sibirica) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are economically important wild ungulates in northern Pakistan because they are sought-after hunting trophies. However, both species are threatened due to several human-induced factors, and these factors are expected to aggravate under changing climate in the High Himalayas. In this study, we investigated populations of ibex and blue sheep in the Pamir-Karakoram mountains in order to (i) update and validate their geographical distributions through empirical data; (ii) understand range shifts under climate change scenarios; and (iii) predict future habitats to aid long-term conservation planning. Presence records of target species were collected through camera trapping and sightings in the field. We constructed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model on presence record and six key climatic variables to predict the current and future distributions of ibex and blue sheep. Two representative concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) and two-time projections (2050 and 2070) were used for future range predictions. Our results indicated that ca. 37% and 9% of the total study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) was suitable under current climatic conditions for Himalayan ibex and blue sheep, respectively. Annual mean precipitation was a key determinant of suitable habitat for both ungulate species. Under changing climate scenarios, both species will lose a significant part of their habitats, particularly in the Himalayan and Hindu Kush ranges. The Pamir-Karakoram ranges will serve as climate refugia for both species. This area shall remain focus of future conservation efforts to protect Pakistan’s mountain ungulates.

Accelerated mass loss of Himalayan glaciers since the Little Ice Age

Himalayan glaciers are undergoing rapid mass loss but rates of contemporary change lack long-term (centennial-scale) context. Here, we reconstruct the extent and surfaces of 14,798 Himalayan glaciers during the Little Ice Age (LIA), 400 to 700 years ago. We show that they have lost at least 40 % of their LIA area and between 390 and 586 km³ of ice; 0.92 to 1.38 mm Sea Level Equivalent. The long-term rate of ice mass loss since the LIA has been between - 0.011 and - 0.020 m w.e./year, which is an order of magnitude lower than contemporary rates reported in the literature. Rates of mass loss depend on monsoon influence and orographic effects, with the fastest losses measured in East Nepal and in Bhutan north of the main divide. Locally, rates of loss were enhanced with the presence of surface debris cover (by 2 times vs clean-ice) and/or a proglacial lake (by 2.5 times vs land-terminating). The ten-fold acceleration in ice loss we have observed across the Himalaya far exceeds any centennial-scale rates of change that have been recorded elsewhere in the world.

Revisiting the 24 year (1994-2018) record of glacier mass budget in the Suru sub-basin, western Himalaya: Overall response and controlling factors

Glacier mass balance time-series measurements have immense importance in comprehending the overall regional hydrology and meteorology of the mountain systems. Such assessments are critical in the Indus River basin (compared to the Ganga and Brahmaputra), which besides having a significant contribution from the glaciers, also exhibits considerable heterogeneity in glacier response. Thus, to quantify this variability in glacier behavior and thereby develop a comprehensive understanding of the past as well as the future evolution of the glaciers, we reconstruct the annual surface mass balance records of 75 glaciers (size >1 km²) in the Suru sub-basin, western Himalaya for the period 1994-2018. We apply a remote sensing-based equilibrium line altitude-mass balance approach, supported by geodetic mass balance estimates (for 18 major glaciers) and limited field measurements. Our findings suggest a persistent negative mass balance of the glaciers (average: -0.69 ± 0.28 m w.e.a^-1, cumulative: -16.56 m w.e), varying from -0.46 ± 0.27 (1997) to -0.79 ± 0.28 (2018) m w.e.a^-1 during the study period. This overall mass loss coincides with an increased temperature (T_avg increased 0.5 °C; T_min increased 0.27 °C; T_max increased 0.06 °C) and reduced precipitation (by 4%) in the valley during 1994-2018, which shows the sensitivity of these glaciers to climate change. Within the Suru sub-basin, smaller, cleaner and high-altitude mountain glaciers of the Ladakh range have experienced greater mass loss (cumulative: -20.88 m w.e) compared to the Greater Himalayan range (cumulative: -13.44 m w.e). We observe latitudinal variability in mass loss in the Western Himalaya, with the highest mass loss rates in the Greater Himalayan Range (>-0.9 m w.e.a^-1) and lowest in the Karakoram Range (<-0.1 m w.e.a^-1), suggesting a transitional response of the Suru sub-basin glaciers (-0.69 m w.e.a^-1). The overall regional picture suggests synchronicity in the mass loss pattern of western Himalayan glaciers, predominantly controlled by the climatic conditions. Meanwhile, the variability in their mass loss rates is attributed to the unique glacier characteristics.

Metagenomic insights into Himalayan glacial and kettle lake sediments revealed microbial community structure, function, and stress adaptation strategies

Glacial and kettle lakes in the high-altitude Himalayas are unique habitats with significant scope for microbial ecology. The present study provides insights into bacterial community structure and function of the sediments of two high-altitude lakes using 16S amplicon and whole-genome shotgun (WGS) metagenomics. Microbial communities in the sediments of Parvati kund (glacial lake) and Bhoot ground (kettle lake) majorly consist of bacteria and a small fraction of archaea and eukaryota. The bacterial population has an abundance of phyla Proteobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Acidobacteria, Actinobacteria, Firmicutes, and Verrucomicrobia. Despite the common phyla, the sediments from each lake have a distinct distribution of bacterial and archaeal taxa. The analysis of the WGS metagenomes at the functional level provides a broad picture of microbial community metabolism of key elements and suggested chemotrophs as the major primary producers. In addition, the findings also revealed that polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) are a crucial stress adaptation molecule. The abundance of PHA metabolism in Alpha- and Betaproteobacteria and less representation in other bacterial and archaeal classes in both metagenomes was disclosed. The metagenomic insights provided an incisive view of the microbiome from Himalayan lake's sediments. It has also opened the scope for further bioprospection from virgin Himalayan niches.

Glacial changes over the Himalayan Beas basin under global warming

We simulated and analyzed the glacier dynamics over the Beas basin (situated in the north-western Himalayas) for the present (1980-2015) and future climates (2006-2100) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 global warming scenarios. We first calibrated the Open Global Glacier Model over the study region and then conducted simulations for the present (forced by ERA-Interim) and future (forced by CMIP5 models) climates. For the present climate, the model simulations show that 50% of the total glacier volume (compared to 1980) is lost by 2011, with glacier area and volume showing a significantly decreasing trend, with higher fluctuations in the glacial area during recent decades. Future projections suggest 75% loss by 2040 ± 2.5 years and ~90% loss by 2094 ± 3.5 years under RCP4.5. Under RCP8.5, 75% loss is expected to occur by 2040 ± 3 years and ~90% loss by 2084 ± 8 years. Ensemble mean of the near-surface air temperature (both monthly mean and annual mean) shows a significantly increasing trend under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for the entire 21^st century. Ensemble mean of the total monthly precipitation shows no trend under RCP4.5, however, it shows a decreasing trend for months ODJFMA and an increasing trend for months JJ under RCP8.5. An increase in JJ precipitation does not increase glacier mass since this region does not receive snowfall during these months. Under RCP4.5, snowfall does not show any significant trend during NDJF, however, it shows a decreasing trend during October and March. Under RCP8.5, snowfall shows a significant decreasing trend for October through March. Overall, we find similar melting rates under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 until ~2050, but the latter shows a higher rate afterward.

Glacier Velocity Changes in the Himalayas in Relation to Ice Mass Balance

Glacier evolution with time provides important information about climate variability. Here, we investigated glacier velocity changes in the Himalayas and analysed the patterns of glacier flow. We collected 220 scenes of Landsat-7 panchromatic images between 1999 and 2000, and Sentinel-2 panchromatic images between 2017 and 2018, to calculate surface velocities of 36,722 glaciers during these two periods. We then derived velocity changes between 1999 and 2018 for the early winter period, based on which we performed a detailed analysis of motion of each individual glacier, and noted that the changes are spatially heterogeneous. Of all the glaciers, 32% have sped up, 24.5% have slowed down, and the rest 43.5% have remained stable. The amplitude of glacier slowdown, as a result of glacier mass loss, is significantly larger than that of speedup. At regional scales, we found that glacier surface velocity in winter has uniformly decreased in the western part of the Himalayas between 1999 and 2018, while increased in the eastern part; this contrasting difference may be associated with decadal changes in accumulation and/or melting under different climatic regimes. We also found that the overall trend of surface velocity exhibits seasonal variability: summer velocity changes are positively correlated with mass loss, i.e., velocity increases with increasing mass loss, whereas winter velocity changes show a negative correlation. Our study suggests that glacier velocity changes in the Himalayas are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, in agreement with studies that previously highlighted this trend, emphasising complex interactions between glacier dynamics and environmental forcing.

A Taxon-Wise Insight Into Rock Weathering and Nitrogen Fixation Functional Profiles of Proglacial Systems

The Arctic environment is particularly affected by global warming, and a clear trend of the ice retreat is observed worldwide. In proglacial systems, the newly exposed terrain represents different environmental and nutrient conditions compared to later soil stages. Therefore, proglacial systems show several environmental gradients along the soil succession where microorganisms are active protagonists of the soil and carbon pool formation through nitrogen fixation and rock weathering. We studied the microbial succession of three Arctic proglacial systems located in Svalbard (Midtre Lovénbreen), Sweden (Storglaciären), and Greenland (foreland close to Kangerlussuaq). We analyzed 65 whole shotgun metagenomic soil samples for a total of more than 400 Gb of sequencing data. Microbial succession showed common trends typical of proglacial systems with increasing diversity observed along the forefield chronosequence. Microbial trends were explained by the distance from the ice edge in the Midtre Lovénbreen and Storglaciären forefields and by total nitrogen (TN) and total organic carbon (TOC) in the Greenland proglacial system. Furthermore, we focused specifically on genes associated with nitrogen fixation and biotic rock weathering processes, such as nitrogenase genes, obcA genes, and genes involved in cyanide and siderophore synthesis and transport. Whereas we confirmed the presence of these genes in known nitrogen-fixing and/or rock weathering organisms (e.g., Nostoc, Burkholderia), in this study, we also detected organisms that, even if often found in soil and proglacial systems, have never been related to nitrogen-fixing or rock weathering processes before (e.g., Fimbriiglobus, Streptomyces). The different genera showed different gene trends within and among the studied systems, indicating a community constituted by a plurality of organisms involved in nitrogen fixation and biotic rock weathering, and where the latter were driven by different organisms at different soil succession stages.

Rapid glacier Shrinkage and Glacial Lake Expansion of a China-Nepal Transboundary Catchment in the Central Himalayas, between 1964 and 2020

Climate warming and concomitant glacier recession in the High Mountain Asia (HMA) have led to widespread development and expansion of glacial lakes, which reserved the freshwater resource, but also may increase risks of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) or debris floods. Using 46 moderate- and high-resolution satellite images, including declassified Keyhole and Landsat missions between 1964 and 2020, we provide a comprehensive area mapping of glaciers and glacial lakes in the Tama Koshi (Rongxer) basin, a highly glacierized China-Nepal transnational catchment in the central Himalayas with high potential risks of glacier-related hazards. Results show that the 329.2 ± 1.9 km2 total area of 271 glaciers in the region has decreased by 26.2 ± 3.2 km2 in the past 56 years. During 2000–2016, remarkable ice mass loss caused the mean glacier surface elevation to decrease with a rate of −0.63 m a−1, and the mean glacier surface velocity slowed by ~25% between 1999 and 2015. The total area of glacial lakes increased by 9.2 ± 0.4 km2 (~180%) from 5.1 ± 0.1 km2 in 1964 to 14.4 ± 0.3 km2 in 2020, while ice-contacted proglacial lakes have a much higher expansion rate (~204%). Large-scale glacial lakes are developed preferentially and experienced rapid expansion on the east side of the basin, suggesting that in addition to climate warming, the glacial geomorphological characters (aspect and slope) are also key controlling factors of the lake growing process. We hypothesize that lake expansion will continue in some cases until critical local topography (i.e., steepening icefall) is reached, but the lake number may not necessarily increase. Further monitoring should be focused on eight rapidly expanding proglacial lakes due to their high potential risks of failure and relatively high lake volumes.

Glaciohydrology of the Himalaya-Karakoram

Understanding the response of Himalayan-Karakoram (HK) rivers to climate change is crucial for ~1 billion people who partly depend on these water resources. Policy-makers tasked with sustainable water resources management require an assessment of the rivers' current status and potential future changes. We show that glacier and snow melt are important components of HK rivers, with greater hydrological importance for the Indus basin than for the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins. Total river runoff, glacier melt, and seasonality of flow are projected to increase until the 2050s, with some exceptions and large uncertainties. Critical knowledge gaps severely affect modeled contributions of different runoff components, future runoff volumes, and seasonality. Therefore, comprehensive field observation-based and remote sensing-based methods and models are needed.

Spatiotemporal maintenance of flora in the Himalaya biodiversity hotspot: Current knowledge and future perspectives

Mountain ecosystems support a significant one-third of all terrestrial biodiversity, but our understanding of the spatiotemporal maintenance of this high biodiversity remains poor, or at best controversial. The Himalaya hosts a complex mountain ecosystem with high topographic and climatic heterogeneity and harbors one of the world's richest floras. The high species endemism, together with increasing anthropogenic threats, has qualified the Himalaya as one of the most significant global biodiversity hotspots. The topographic and climatic complexity of the Himalaya makes it an ideal natural laboratory for studying the mechanisms of floral exchange, diversification, and spatiotemporal distributions. Here, we review literature pertaining to the Himalaya in order to generate a concise synthesis of the origin, distribution, and climate change responses of the Himalayan flora. We found that the Himalaya supports a rich biodiversity and that the Hengduan Mountains supplied the majority of the Himalayan floral elements, which subsequently diversified from the late Miocene onward, to create today's relatively high endemicity in the Himalaya. Further, we uncover links between this Miocene diversification and the joint effect of geological and climatic upheavals in the Himalaya. There is marked variance regarding species dispersal, elevational gradients, and impact of climate change among plant species in the Himalaya, and our review highlights some of the general trends and recent advances on these aspects. Finally, we provide some recommendations for conservation planning and future research. Our work could be useful in guiding future research in this important ecosystem and will also provide new insights into the maintenance mechanisms underpinning other mountain systems.

Hydrograph apportionment of the Chandra River draining from a semi-arid region of the Upper Indus Basin, western Himalaya

Melting of snow and glaciers from the high-altitude Himalayan region is a significant water source to the major Himalayan rivers, especially in the upper Indus Basin (UIB), which contributes up to 70% of river discharge. Considering Indus Basin as a largest irrigation system dependent on snow and glacier melt runoff, it is imperative to study the rivers' current status and water budget. In this study we have performed a tracer-based hydrograph separation to quantify the contribution of seasonal snow, glacier melt, and groundwater to the Chandra River draining from a semi-arid region of the upper Indus basin, western Himalaya. Our study revealed a negligible control of summer (May-September 2017) precipitation and significant control of summer air temperature (May-September 2017) and winter precipitation over the Chandra River discharge, with 1 °C rise in air temperature leading to 22 m³s^-1 (15% of mean) increase in the river discharge (R² = 0.85; n = 541; p < 0.001). The hydrograph separation of the Chandra River suggests groundwater (38.3 ± 5.6%; 96.8 m³s^-1) as a significant source to the river runoff, followed by a direct contribution from glacier melt (30.9 ± 9%; 88.2 m³s^-1) and seasonal snowmelt (30.6 ± 5.7%; 84.2 m³s^-1), respectively, with negligible contribution from rainfall. Although groundwater is a significant contributor to the river runoff, the infiltration of seasonal snowmelt (54%) and glacier melt (46%) mostly contributed to the groundwater recharge. Present study establishes a linkage between seasonal snowmelt, glacier melt, groundwater, and the river runoff and would be useful to better model and predicts the future changes in the water resources of the upper Indus Basin.

Integrated approach for effective debris mapping in glacierized regions of Chandra River Basin, Western Himalayas, India

The mapping of debris in glacierized terrain is required for managing the water resources, glacier mass-balance studies and the monitoring of glacier health. Two types of debris i.e. Supraglacial debris (SGD) and periglacial debris (PGD) are derived from the same source i.e., surrounding valley rock and have similar reflectance which makes it difficult to differentiate between them. Hence, in this study a novel integrated approach is proposed where spectral information and thermal data from Landsat 8 Satellite image in conjunction with geomorphometric and topographic parameters extracted from SRTM DEM are utilized to classify SGD and PGD along with other classes in Chandra River Basin (CRB) covering the area of 2422.1 km² in western Himalayas. Nearly one fourth of the study area is glacierized region while SGD and PGD cover nearly 7% of the study area. Accuracy of the classified data is assessed through comparison with manually digitized data set and minimal difference in area is observed. Results are validated with high resolution (10 m) Sentinel 2a image and data collected from field observations. The SGD is precisely demarcated with 93% accuracy with an overall 83.50% accuracy of classification. Thus, this work presents an efficient, better and prompt method for classifying glacierized areas more effectively than manual delineation at basin/sub-basin level.

Observations of Winter Ablation on Glaciers in the Mount Everest Region in 2020–2021

Recent observations of rising snow lines and reduced snow-covered areas on glaciers during the October 2020–January 2021 period in the Nepal–China region of Mount Everest in Landsat and Sentinel imagery highlight observations that significant ablation has occurred in recent years on many Himalayan glaciers in the post-monsoon and early winter periods. For the first time, we now have weather stations providing real-time data in the Mount Everest region that may sufficiently transect the post-monsoon snow line elevation region. These sensors have been placed by the Rolex National Geographic Perpetual Planet expedition. Combining in situ weather records and remote sensing data provides a unique opportunity to examine the impact of the warm and dry conditions during the 2020 post-monsoon period through to the 2020/2021 winter on glaciers in the Mount Everest region. The ablation season extended through January 2021. Winter (DJF) ERA5 reanalysis temperature reconstructions for Everest Base Camp (5315 m) for the 1950–February 2021 period indicate that six days in the January 10–15 period in 2021 fell in the top 1% of all winter days since 1950, with January 13, January 14, and January 12, being the first, second, and third warmest winter days in the 72-year period. This has also led to the highest freezing levels in winter for the 1950–2021 period, with the January 12–14 period being the only period in winter with a freezing level above 6000 m.

High Mountain Asian glacier response to climate revealed by multi-temporal satellite observations since the 1960s

Knowledge about the long-term response of High Mountain Asian glaciers to climatic variations is paramount because of their important role in sustaining Asian river flow. Here, a satellite-based time series of glacier mass balance for seven climatically different regions across High Mountain Asia since the 1960s shows that glacier mass loss rates have persistently increased at most sites. Regional glacier mass budgets ranged from −0.40 ± 0.07 m w.e.a⁻¹ in Central and Northern Tien Shan to −0.06 ± 0.07 m w.e.a⁻¹ in Eastern Pamir, with considerable temporal and spatial variability. Highest rates of mass loss occurred in Central Himalaya and Northern Tien Shan after 2015 and even in regions where glaciers were previously in balance with climate, such as Eastern Pamir, mass losses prevailed in recent years. An increase in summer temperature explains the long-term trend in mass loss and now appears to drive mass loss even in regions formerly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation.

Multi-platform satellite observations document six decades of glacier mass balance variability across High Mountain Asia (HMA). Heterogeneous rates of ice loss reflect regional climatic differences, but ice loss is now pervasive across HMA even in regions formerly exhibiting slight mass gains.

Assessment of the Impacts of Spatial Water Resource Variability on Energy Planning in the Ganges River Basin under Climate Change Scenarios

Availability of water in the Ganges River basin has been recognized as a critical regional issue with a significant impact on drinking water supply, irrigation, as well as on industrial development, and ecosystem services in vast areas of South Asia. In addition, water availability is also strongly linked to energy security in the region. Hence, quantification of spatial availability of water resources is necessary to bolster reliable evaluation of the sustainability of future thermal power plants in the Ganges River basin. This study focuses on the risks facing existing and planned power plants regarding water availability, applying climate change scenarios at the sub-basin and district level up to 2050. For this purpose, this study develops an integrated assessment approach to quantify the water-energy nexus in four selected sub-basins of the Ganges, namely, Chambal, Damodar, Gandak, and Yamuna. The results of simulations using Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) showed that future water availability will increase significantly in the Chambal, Damodar, and Gandak sub-basins during the wet season, and will negligibly increase in the dry season, except for the Yamuna sub-basin, which is likely to experience a decrease in available water in both wet and dry seasons under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Changes in the water supply-demand ratio, due to climate change, indicated that water-related risks for future power plants would reduce in the Chambal and Damodar sub-basins, as there would be sufficient water in the future. For 19 out of 23 districts in the Chambal sub-basin, climate change will have a moderate-positive to high-positive impact on reducing the water risk for power plants by 2050. In contrast, existing and future power plants in the Yamuna and Gandak sub-basins will face increasing water risks. The proposed new thermal power installations, particularly in the Gandak sub-basin, are likely to face serious water shortages, which will adversely affect the stability of their operations. These results will stimulate and guide future research work to optimize the water-energy nexus, and will inform development and planning organizations, energy planning organizations, as well as investors, concerning the spatial distribution of water risks for future power plants so that more accurate decisions can be made on the location of future power plants.

A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya

On 7 February 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. More than 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that ~27 × 10⁶ cubic meters of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders greater than 20 meters in diameter and scoured the valley walls up to 220 meters above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments.