Climate change and expanding invasive species drive widespread declines of native trout in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Anthropogenic stressors that favour nuisance species. A study from environmental DNA in marine plankton samples

Anthropogenic stressors reduce marine biodiversity. Tolerant species may develop in altered areas where they occupy niches that native species are unable to use. Species of biosecurity concern, like invasive aliens or harmful microalgae, are especially successful in disturbed areas. Here, we employed multiple regression approach to investigate the relationship between the proportion of planktonic stages of invasives and anthropogenic stressors. Planktonic species were inventoried from environmental DNA on water samples from the Bay of Biscay. Key findings were that the proportion of invasives was associated with port and touristic activities that are vectors for biological invaders, and with industrial pollution, likely for their tolerance to disturbed environments. The proportion of toxic algae was correlated with port activity, reinforcing the role of maritime traffic as a vector of harmful microalgae. An increase of nuisance species is expected under the current growth of pollution in the ocean. Promoting awareness of biological invasions among maritime sectors and tourists, and controlling pollution, seem priorities for environmental conservation in this region and elsewhere.

Niche Expansion Has Increased the Risk of Leptocybe invasa Fisher Et LaSalle Invasions at the Global Scale

Invasive alien species often undergo shifts in their ecological niches when they establish themselves in environments that differ from their native habitats. Leptocybe invasa Fisher et LaSalle (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae), specifically, has caused huge economic losses to Eucalyptus trees in Australia. The global spread of eucalyptus cultivation has allowed L. invasa to threaten plantations beyond its native habitat. It is, therefore, urgent to implement effective control measures to mitigate the impact of this pest. The optimized MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential global distribution of L. invasa based on occurrence data and environmental variables. The centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion (COUE) framework was employed to evaluate niche dynamics during the global invasion process by comparing the ecological niches of L. invasa in both native regions and regions affected by invasions (hereafter referred to as "invaded"). The results indicated that the distribution of L. invasa is primarily influenced by temperature, precipitation, and the human influence index variables. Its ecological niche was shown to have considerably expanded from native to invaded regions. Under future climate scenarios, the potential geographical distribution of L. invasa is projected to be concentrated primarily in East Asia, Southeast Asia, Western Europe, and Southern Oceania. In the future, the potentially suitable areas for the establishment of L. invasa are expected to further expand. This study provides a unified framework for exploring the niche dynamics of invasive alien species globally. Emphasizing early warning and control in uninvaded areas is crucial for minimizing L. invasa ecological and economic threats.

Climate change extinctions

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.

Comparative QSAR and q-RASAR modeling for aquatic toxicity of organic chemicals to three trout species: O. Clarkii, S. Namaycush, and S. Fontinalis

Oncorhynchus clarkii, Salvelinus fontinalis, and Salvelinus namaycush are vital trout species in North America, crucial for maintaining ecological balance, economic stability, and human health. These species thrive in cold, unpolluted waters and are highly vulnerable to contaminants. Given the rapid proliferation of industrial organic chemicals, traditional in vivo toxicity testing methods are inadequate to ensure timely and comprehensive risk assessments. Therefore, we employed in silico tools, namely Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationship (QSAR) and Quantitative Read-Across Structure-Activity Relationship (q-RASAR), to efficiently predict the aquatic toxicity of chemicals. Utilizing acute median lethal concentration (LC50) data from the US EPA's ToxValDB, we developed the first-ever species-specific QSAR and q-RASAR models. The q-RASAR models outperformed traditional QSAR models by achieving higher internal and external statistical quality for each species. Key toxicity-determining descriptors included electrotopological state indices, autocorrelation descriptors, and similarity-based RASAR descriptors. For O. clarkii, the presence of chlorine atoms and rotatable bonds significantly influenced toxicity. S. fontinalis toxicity was strongly affected by polarizability, and van der Waals volumes, while S. namaycush showed sensitivity to weak hydrogen bond acceptors and topological complexity. The models predicted the toxicity of 1172 external compounds, identifying the most and least toxic chemicals for each species. This study not only offers the first comprehensive q-RASAR models for predicting trout species-specific toxicity but also provides novel insights into species-specific toxicological modes of action. The results contribute significantly to chemical screening and prioritization in aquatic risk assessments, effectively filling critical data gaps and advancing predictive modeling techniques.

Correlating Climate Conditions With Pseudomonas aeruginosa Prevalence in Diabetic Foot Infections Within the United States

Background

The 2023 "International Working Group on the Diabetic Foot/Infectious Disease Society of America Guidelines on the Diagnosis and Treatment of Diabetes-Related Foot Infections" (DFIs) provides recommendations for Pseudomonas coverage based on the climate region.

Methods

This was a retrospective national study of veterans between 1/1/2010 and 3/23/2024 with diabetes mellitus and a culture below the malleolus wound. Prevalence of Pseudomonas was categorized based on climate zones according to the International Energy Conservation Code. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios and 97.5% CIs.

Results

The prevalence of Pseudomonas significantly varied between US climates. Pseudomonas was most prevalent within the Hot Humid climate, where it was isolated in 11.6% of DFI cultures. Pseudomonas was least prevalent within the Very Cold climate, where it was isolated in 6.2% of cultures. In the multivariable logistic regression model, hot and humid climates were associated with an odds of P. aeruginosa of 1.92 (97.5% CI, 1.69-2.20), a hot, dry climate was associated with an odds of 1.65 (97.5% CI, 1.44-1.90), and a humid climate was associated with an odds of 1.65 (97.5% CI, 1.45-1.89). A lower Charlson Comorbidity Index, inpatient admission, recent antipseudomonal antibiotic use, and swabs were less likely to have Pseudomonas. Recent admission increased the odds of P. aeruginosa (odds ratio [OR], 1.34; 97.5% CI, 1.27-1.41). History of P. aeruginosa was associated with an increase in P. aeruginosa (OR, 8.90; 97.5% CI, 8.29-9.56).

Conclusions

The prevalence of DFI organisms varies within different US climates. Utilization of local climate information may allow for more accurate and targeted empiric antibiotic selection when treating DFIs.

Inbreeding avoidance and cost in a small, isolated trout population

The persistence of small populations is influenced by the degree and cost of inbreeding, with the degree of inbreeding depending on whether close-kin mating is passively or actively avoided. Few studies have simultaneously studied these factors. We examined inbreeding in a small, isolated population of westslope cutthroat trout using extensive genetic and demographic data. Passive inbreeding avoidance was low, with predicted lifetime dispersal of approximately 36 and 74 m for females and males, respectively. Additionally, we found limited evidence for active inbreeding avoidance during reproduction. Relatives remained spatially clustered into adulthood, and observed relatedness among mate pairs was greater than expected under random mating by 0.09, suggesting that inbreeding is a concern in this population. Further, we examined sex-specific inbreeding depression throughout the life cycle and provide evidence for inbreeding depression in some fitness components, including family size, juvenile survival and reproductive success. Our results suggest that, in an at-risk trout population, limited passive and active inbreeding avoidance lead to a higher degree of inbreeding than expected under random mating. Observed inbreeding, along with evidence for fitness reduction due to inbreeding depression, could put the population at a heightened risk of decline or extirpation.

Disentangling effects of dispersal, environment and anthropogenic barriers on functional connectivity in aquatic systems

Disentangling the roles of structural landscape factors and animal movement behaviour can present challenges for practitioners managing landscapes to maintain functional connectivity and achieve conservation goals. We used a landscape genetics approach to combine robust demographic, behavioural and genetic datasets with spatially explicit simulations to evaluate the effects of anthropogenic barriers (dams, culverts) and natural landscape resistance (gradient, elevation) affecting dispersal behaviour, genetic connectivity and genetic structure in a resident population of Westslope Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi). Analyses based on 10 years of sampling effort revealed a pattern of restricted dispersal, and population genetics identified discrete population clusters between distal tributaries and the mainstem stream and no structure within the mainstem stream. Demogenetic simulations demonstrated that, for this population, the effects of existing anthropogenic barriers on population structure are redundant with effects of restricted dispersal associated with the underlying environmental resistance. Our approach provides an example of how extensive field sampling combined with landscape genetics can be incorporated into spatially explicit simulation modelling to explore how, together, movement ecology and landscape resistance can be used to inform decisions around restoration and connectivity.

Assessing the suitability of a one-time sampling event for close-kin mark-recapture: A caribou case study

Abundance estimation is frequently an objective of conservation and monitoring initiatives for threatened and other managed populations. While abundance estimation via capture-mark-recapture or spatially explicit capture-recapture is now common, such approaches are logistically challenging and expensive for species such as boreal caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which inhabit remote regions, are widely dispersed, and exist at low densities. Fortunately, the recently developed 'close-kin mark-recapture' (CKMR) framework, which uses the number of kin pairs obtained within a sample to generate an abundance estimate, eliminates the need for multiple sampling events. As a result, some caribou managers are interested in using this method to generate an abundance estimate from a single, non-invasive sampling event for caribou populations. We conducted a simulation study using realistic boreal caribou demographic rates and population sizes to assess how population size and the proportion of the population surveyed impact the accuracy and precision of single-survey CKMR-based abundance estimates. Our results indicated that abundance estimates were biased and highly imprecise when very small proportions of the population were sampled, regardless of the population size. However, the larger the population size, the smaller the required proportion of the population surveyed to generate both accurate and reasonably precise estimates. Additionally, we also present a case study in which we used the CKMR framework to generate annual female abundance estimates for a small caribou population in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada, from 2006 to 2015 and compared them to existing published capture-mark-recapture-based estimates. Both the accuracy and precision of the annual CKMR-based abundance estimates varied across years and were sensitive to the proportion of pairwise kinship comparisons which yielded a mother-offspring pair. Taken together, our study demonstrates that it is possible to generate CKMR-based abundance estimates from a single sampling event for small caribou populations, so long as a sufficient sampling intensity can be achieved.

Local environments, not invasive hybridization, influence cardiac performance of native trout under acute thermal stress

Climate-induced expansion of invasive hybridization (breeding between invasive and native species) poses a significant threat to the persistence of many native species worldwide. In the northern U.S. Rocky Mountains, hybridization between native cutthroat trout and non-native rainbow trout has increased in recent decades due, in part, to climate-driven increases in water temperature. It has been postulated that invasive hybridization may enhance physiological tolerance to climate-induced thermal stress because laboratory studies indicate that rainbow trout have a higher thermal tolerance than cutthroat trout. Here, we assessed whether invasive hybridization improves cardiac performance response to acute water temperature stress of native wild trout populations. We collected trout from four streams with a wide range of non-native admixture among individuals and with different temperature and streamflow regimes in the upper Flathead River drainage, USA. We measured individual cardiac performance (maximum heart rate, "MaxHR", and temperature at arrhythmia, "ArrTemp") during laboratory trials with increasing water temperatures (10-28°C). Across the study populations, we observed substantial variation in cardiac performance of individual trout when exposed to thermal stress. Notably, we found significant differences in the cardiac response to thermal regimes among native cutthroat trout populations, suggesting the importance of genotype-by-environment interactions in shaping the physiological performance of native cutthroat trout. However, rainbow trout admixture had no significant effect on cardiac performance (MaxHR and ArrTemp) within any of the three populations. Our results indicate that invasive hybridization with a warmer-adapted species does not enhance the cardiac performance of native trout under warming conditions. Maintaining numerous populations across thermally and hydrologically diverse stream environments will be crucial for native trout to adapt and persist in a warming climate.

Season-specific impacts of climate change on canopy-forming seaweed communities

Understory assemblages associated with canopy-forming species such as trees, kelps, and rockweeds should respond strongly to climate stressors due to strong canopy-understory interactions. Climate change can directly and indirectly modify these assemblages, particularly during more stressful seasons and climate scenarios. However, fully understanding the seasonal impacts of different climate conditions on canopy-reliant assemblages is difficult due to a continued emphasis on studying single-species responses to a single future climate scenario during a single season. To examine these emergent effects, we used mesocosm experiments to expose seaweed assemblages associated with the canopy-forming golden rockweed, Silvetia compressa, to elevated temperature and pCO2 conditions reflecting two projected greenhouse emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 [low] & RCP 4.5 [moderate]). Assemblages were grown in the presence and absence of Silvetia, and in two seasons. Relative to ambient conditions, predicted climate scenarios generally suppressed Silvetia biomass and photosynthetic efficiency. However, these effects varied seasonally-both future scenarios reduced Silvetia biomass in summer, but only the moderate scenario did so in winter. These reductions shifted the assemblage, with more extreme shifts occurring in summer. Contrarily, future scenarios did not shift assemblages within Silvetia Absent treatments, suggesting that climate primarily affected assemblages indirectly through changes in Silvetia. Mesocosm experiments were coupled with a field Silvetia removal experiment to simulate the effects of climate-mediated Silvetia loss on natural assemblages. Consistent with the mesocosm experiment, Silvetia loss resulted in season-specific assemblage shifts, with weaker effects observed in winter. Together, our study supports the hypotheses that climate-mediated changes to canopy-forming species can indirectly affect the associated assemblage, and that these effects vary seasonally. Such seasonality is important to consider as it may provide periods of recovery when conditions are less stressful, especially if we can reduce the severity of future climate scenarios.

Distribution of sika deer (Cervus nippon) and the bioclimatic impact on their habitats in South Korea

Invasive species and climate change are primary factors influencing biodiversity, and examining the behavior of invasive species is essential for effective conservation management. Here, we report the global distribution of the sika deer (Cervus nippon) based on locations reported in published literature (Google Scholar), the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database, and the International Union for Conservation of Nature report. We used the maximum entropy (Maxent) model to examine the impact of climate change on sika deer habitats in South Korea based on GBIF occurrence data and WorldClim bioclimatic variables. Habitat suitability analysis was performed using the Maxent model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 (for predicted climatic conditions in both 2050 and 2070) to project the effects of different climate change scenarios on South Korean sika deer habitats. We identified that the sika deer is distributed in 39 countries worldwide. Due to climate change effects, South Korean sika deer habitats will decline by approximately 24.98% and 20.63% (under RCP 4.5) and by 50.51% and 57.35% (under RCP 8.5) by 2050 and 2070, respectively. Our findings shed light on sika deer ecology and provide reference data for future conservation management strategies and policy design.

Effects of climate on salmonid productivity: A global meta-analysis across freshwater ecosystems

Salmonids are of immense socio-economic importance in much of the world, but are threatened by climate change. This has generated a substantial literature documenting the effects of climate variation on salmonid productivity in freshwater ecosystems, but there has been no global quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to gain quantitative insight into key factors shaping the effects of climate on salmonid productivity, ultimately collecting 1321 correlations from 156 studies, representing 23 species across 24 countries. Fisher's Z was used as the standardized effect size, and a series of weighted mixed-effects models were compared to identify covariates that best explained variation in effects. Patterns in climate effects were complex and were driven by spatial (latitude, elevation), temporal (time-period, age-class), and biological (range, habitat type, anadromy) variation within and among study populations. These trends were often consistent with predictions based on salmonid thermal tolerances. Namely, warming and decreased precipitation tended to reduce productivity when high temperatures challenged upper thermal limits, while opposite patterns were common when cold temperatures limited productivity. Overall, variable climate impacts on salmonids suggest that future declines in some locations may be counterbalanced by gains in others. In particular, we suggest that future warming should (1) increase salmonid productivity at high latitudes and elevations (especially >60° and >1500 m), (2) reduce productivity in populations experiencing hotter and dryer growing season conditions, (3) favor non-native over native salmonids, and (4) impact lentic populations less negatively than lotic ones. These patterns should help conservation and management organizations identify populations most vulnerable to climate change, which can then be prioritized for protective measures. Our framework enables broad inferences about future productivity that can inform decision-making under climate change for salmonids and other taxa, but more widespread, standardized, and hypothesis-driven research is needed to expand current knowledge.

High dispersal rates in hybrids drive expansion of maladaptive hybridization

Hybridization between native and invasive species, a major cause of biodiversity loss, can spread rapidly even when hybrids have reduced fitness. This paradox suggests that hybrids have greater dispersal rates than non-hybridized individuals, yet this mechanism has not been empirically tested in animal populations. Here, we test if non-native genetic introgression increases reproductive dispersal using a human-mediated hybrid zone between native cutthroat trout (<i>Oncorhynchus clarkii</i>) and invasive rainbow trout (<i>Oncorhynchus mykiss</i>) in a large and connected river system. We quantified the propensity for individuals to migrate from natal rearing habitats (migrate), reproduce in non-natal habitats (stray), and the joint probability of dispersal as a function of genetic ancestry. Hybrid trout with predominantly non-native rainbow trout ancestry were more likely to migrate as juveniles and to stray as adults. Overall, hybrids with greater than 50% rainbow trout ancestry were 5.7 times more likely to disperse than native or hybrid trout with small amounts of rainbow trout ancestry. Our results show a genetic basis for increased dispersal in hybrids that is likely contributing to the rapid expansion of invasive hybridization between these species. Management actions that decrease the probability of hybrid dispersal may mitigate the harmful effects of invasive hybridization on native biodiversity.

Socioeconomic resilience to climatic extremes in a freshwater fishery

Heterogeneity is a central feature of ecosystem resilience, but how this translates to socioeconomic resilience depends on people's ability to track shifting resources in space and time. Here, we quantify how climatic extremes have influenced how people (fishers) track economically valuable ecosystem services (fishing opportunities) across a range of spatial scales in rivers of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, over the past three decades. Fishers opportunistically shifted from drought-sensitive to drought-resistant rivers during periods of low streamflows and warm temperatures. This adaptive behavior stabilized fishing pressure and expenditures by a factor of 2.6 at the scale of the regional fishery (i.e., portfolio effect). However, future warming is predicted to homogenize habitat options that enable adaptive behavior by fishers, putting ~30% of current spending at risk across the region. Maintaining a diverse portfolio of fishing opportunities that enable people to exploit shifting resources provides an important resilience mechanism for mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on fisheries.

Reservoir water quality deterioration due to deforestation emphasizes the indirect effects of global change

Deforestation is currently a widespread phenomenon and a growing environmental concern in the era of rapid climate change. In temperate regions, it is challenging to quantify the impacts of deforestation on the catchment dynamics and downstream aquatic ecosystems such as reservoirs and disentangle these from direct climate change impacts, let alone project future changes to inform management. Here, we tackled this issue by investigating a unique catchment-reservoir system with two reservoirs in distinct trophic states (meso‑ and eutrophic), both of which drain into the largest drinking water reservoir in Germany. Due to the prolonged droughts in 2015-2018, the catchment of the mesotrophic reservoir lost an unprecedented area of forest (exponential increase since 2015 and ca. 17.1% loss in 2020 alone). We coupled catchment nutrient exports (HYPE) and reservoir ecosystem dynamics (GOTM-WET) models using a process-based modeling approach. The coupled model was validated with datasets spanning periods of rapid deforestation, which makes our future projections highly robust. Results show that in a short-term time scale (by 2035), increasing nutrient flux from the catchment due to vast deforestation (80% loss) can turn the mesotrophic reservoir into a eutrophic state as its counterpart. Our results emphasize the more prominent impacts of deforestation than the direct impact of climate warming in impairment of water quality and ecological services to downstream aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, we propose to evaluate the impact of climate change on temperate reservoirs by incorporating a time scale-dependent context, highlighting the indirect impact of deforestation in the short-term scale. In the long-term scale (e.g. to 2100), a guiding hypothesis for future research may be that indirect effects (e.g., as mediated by catchment dynamics) are as important as the direct effects of climate warming on aquatic ecosystems.

Hydroclimatic Conditions, Wildfire, and Species Assemblages Influence Co-Occurrence of Bull Trout and Tailed Frogs in Northern Rocky Mountain Streams

Although bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and tailed frogs (Ascaphus montanus) have co-existed in forested Pacific Northwest streams for millennia, these iconic cold-water specialists are experiencing rapid environmental change caused by a warming climate and enhanced wildfire activity. Our goal was to inform future conservation by examining the habitat associations of each species and conditions that facilitate co-occupancy. We repurposed data from previous studies in the northern Rocky Mountains to assess the efficacy of bull trout electrofishing surveys for determining the occurrence of tailed frogs and the predictive capacity of habitat covariates derived from in-stream measurements and geospatial sources to model distributions of both species. Electrofishing reliably detected frog presence (89.2% rate). Both species were strongly associated with stream temperature and flow regime characteristics, and less responsive to riparian canopy cover, slope, and other salmonids. Tailed frogs were also sensitive to wildfire, with occupancy probability peaking around 80 years after a fire. Co-occupancy was most probable in locations with low-to-moderate frequencies of high winter flow events, few other salmonids, a low base-flow index, and intermediate years since fire. The distributions of these species appear to be sensitive to environmental conditions that are changing this century in forests of the northern Rocky Mountains. The amplification of climate-driven effects after wildfire may prove to be particularly problematic in the future. Habitat differences between these two species, considered to be headwater specialists, suggest that conservation measures designed for one may not fully protect the other. Additional studies involving future climate and wildfire scenarios are needed to assess broader conservation strategies and the potential to identify refuge streams where both species are likely to persist, or complementary streams where each could exist separately into the future.