Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues

Engaging and (the Illusion of) Learning? Examining the Relationship Between Different Social Media Activities and Reproductive Health Knowledge

Social media have become fundamental platforms for learning about health, including reproductive health knowledge. However, little is known about what specific user activity is conducive to learning about reproductive health and by what means. Drawing upon the cognitive mediation model, this study examines how different social media activities function in terms of elaboration and knowledge gain. Our hypothesized model was largely supported by a nationwide online survey with 1,000 Chinese women residing in both rural and urban areas. The results revealed the crucial role of information elaboration in bridging different social media activities with both subjective and factual reproductive health knowledge. Interestingly, public reposting of reproductive health information was found to be positively related to subjective knowledge but negatively related to factual knowledge, suggesting the emergence of an illusion of knowing among our participants. Multigroup SEM analyses revealed that the positive roles of scanning and private sharing in encouraging elaboration were more pronounced among users with lower levels of need for cognition. The findings are expected to contribute to a more nuanced understanding of health learning based on users' social media activities and intrinsic motivations for learning.

Pandemic antecedents - Exploring predictivity and relationships between COVID-19 vaccine uptake and influenza, shingles, and HPV vaccination

BACKGROUND

A wealth of extant research focuses on identifying barriers to, and predictors of, COVID-19 vaccination. In addition to treating COVID-19 vaccination and related experiences as antecedents, this study analyzes the relationships between COVID-19 vaccination experiences and intent to receive the flu, shingles, and HPV vaccines.

METHOD

Analyses were performed on the responses from U.S. survey panel of 1,024 participants (n = 1,024), 530 (51.8 %) who received at least a dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and 494 (48.2 %) who had not. Descriptive and inferential statistics identify participant demographic characteristics, prior vaccination behavior, vaccination intentions, risk behavior assessment, vaccination attitudes and beliefs, and the predictivity of COVID-19 vaccination, when treated as an antecedent.

RESULTS

Receiving a first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine interacted with receiving a past influenza vaccine, predicting the future intention to receive a COVID-19 vaccine or booster. Vaccine hesitancy in parents is significantly related to vaccination behaviors for themselves and their children. Analyses also showed differences between the vaccinated group (VG) and the unvaccinated group (UVG) on hesitancy, beliefs, and attitudes toward the COVID-19 vaccine.

CONCLUSION

Experience with COVID-19 vaccination and the relationship of those experiences with other vaccinations provide useful insight on leveraging vaccine uptake. Healthcare professionals should improve the COVID-19 vaccination experience and use vaccination appointments to promote other vaccinations. Research should continue to compare vaccination experiences and how they may persuade or dissuade vaccination intent for other vaccinations.

Conspiracy Theory as Individual and Group Behavior: Observations from the Flat Earth International Conference

Conspiratorial thinking has been with humanity for a long time but has recently grown as a source of societal concern and as a subject of research in the cognitive and social sciences. We propose a three-tiered framework for the study of conspiracy theories: (1) cognitive processes, (2) the individual, and (3) social processes and communities of knowledge. At the level of cognitive processes, we identify explanatory coherence and faulty belief updating as critical ideas. At the level of the community of knowledge, we explore how conspiracy communities facilitate false belief by promoting a contagious sense of understanding, and how community norms catalyze the biased assimilation of evidence. We review recent research on conspiracy theories and explain how conspiratorial thinking emerges from the interaction of individual and group processes. As a case study, we describe observations the first author made while attending the Flat Earth International Conference, a meeting of conspiracy theorists who believe the Earth is flat. Rather than treating conspiracy belief as pathological, we take the perspective that is an extreme outcome of common cognitive processes.

Intermediate science knowledge predicts overconfidence

Lackner et al. found science overconfidence peaks at intermediate levels of knowledge. Those with intermediate knowledge also hold the most negative attitudes toward scientists. In doing so, they provide a novel measure of overconfidence that measures the tendency to give incorrect answers as opposed to answering, 'I don't know'.

Overlapping yet dissociable contributions of superiority illusion features to Ponzo illusion strength and metacognitive performance

Humans are typically inept at evaluating their abilities and predispositions. People dismiss such a lack of metacognitive insight into their capacities while even enhancing (albeit illusorily) self-evaluation such that they should have more desirable traits than an average peer. This superiority illusion helps maintain a healthy mental state. However, the scope and range of its influence on broader human behavior, especially perceptual tasks, remain elusive. As belief shapes the way people perceive and recognize, the illusory self-superiority belief potentially regulates our perceptual and metacognitive performance. In this study, we used hierarchical Bayesian estimation and machine learning of signal detection theoretic measures to understand how the superiority illusion influences visual perception and metacognition for the Ponzo illusion. Our results demonstrated that the superiority illusion correlated with the Ponzo illusion magnitude and metacognitive performance. Next, we combined principal component analysis and cross-validated regularized regression (relaxed elastic net) to identify which superiority components contributed to the correlations. We revealed that the "extraversion" superiority dimension tapped into the Ponzo illusion magnitude and metacognitive ability. In contrast, the "honesty-humility" and "neuroticism" dimensions only predicted Ponzo illusion magnitude and metacognitive ability, respectively. These results suggest common and distinct influences of superiority features on perceptual sensitivity and metacognition. Our findings contribute to the accumulating body of evidence indicating that the leverage of superiority illusion is far-reaching, even to visual perception.

Testing the cultural-invariance hypothesis: A global analysis of the relationship between scientific knowledge and attitudes to science

A substantial body of research has demonstrated that science knowledge is correlated with attitudes towards science, with most studies finding a positive relationship between the two constructs; people who are more knowledgeable about science tend to be more positive about it. However, this evidence base has been almost exclusively confined to high and middle-income democracies, with poorer and less developed nations excluded from consideration. In this study, we conduct the first global investigation of the science knowledge-attitude relationship, using the 2018 Wellcome Global Monitor survey. Our results show a positive knowledge-attitude correlation in all but one of the 144 countries investigated. This robust cross-national relationship is consistent across both science literacy and self-assessed measures of science knowledge.

Knowledge as a key determinant of public support for autonomous vehicles

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) have the potential to revolutionize transportation safety and mobility, but many people are still concerned about the safety of AVs and hesitate to use them. Here we survey 4112 individuals to explore the relationship between knowledge and public support for AVs. We find that AV support has a positive relationship with scientific literacy (objective knowledge about science) and perceived understanding of AV (self-assessed knowledge). Respondents who are supportive of AVs tended to have more objective AV knowledge (objective knowledge about AVs). Moreover, the results of further experiments show that increasing people's self-assessed knowledge or gaining additional objective AV knowledge may contribute to increasing their AV support. These findings therefore improve the understanding of the relationship between public knowledge levels and AV support, enabling policy-makers to develop better strategies for raising AV support, specifically, by considering the role of knowledge, which in turn may influence public behavioural intentions and lead to higher levels of AV acceptance.

Why the Psychosomatic View on Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Is Inconsistent with Current Evidence and Harmful to Patients

Since 1969, Myalgic Encephalomyelitis/Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (ME/CFS) has been classified as a neurological disease in the International Classification of Diseases by the World Health Organization. Although numerous studies over time have uncovered organic abnormalities in patients with ME/CFS, and the majority of researchers to date classify the disease as organic, many physicians still believe that ME/CFS is a psychosomatic illness. In this article, we show how detrimental this belief is to the care and well-being of affected patients and, as a consequence, how important the education of physicians and the public is to stop misdiagnosis, mistreatment, and stigmatization on the grounds of incorrect psychosomatic attributions about the etiology and clinical course of ME/CFS.

How orientations to expertise condition the acceptance of (mis)information

This review explores psychological barriers to the acceptance of expert guidance. Specifically, the constructs of epistemic overconfidence, institutional distrust, anti-expert sentiments, anti-establishment orientations, science populism, and conspiracist worldviews are jointly considered as orientations to expertise. I review the state of the literature on their origins, prevalence, and effects on misinformation endorsement and acceptance of corrections. Addressing these psychological barriers requires building trust in institutions, backed by transparent communication and the involvement of community-based, non-expert messengers. As the review synthesizes disparate research strands, it underscores the need for future studies to compare, validate, and consolidate different orientations to expertise, understand causal relationships, and explore generalizability to diverse contexts.

Prevalence of questionable health behaviours in Serbia and their psychological roots: protocol for a nationally representative survey

INTRODUCTION

We will launch a national survey in Serbia to document the prevalence of two types of questionable health behaviours: (1) intentional non-adherence to medical recommendations and (2) use of traditional, complementary and alternative medicine practices, as well as the relation between the two. We will also investigate their psychological roots, including (a) 'distal' predictors such as HEXACO personality traits (plus Disintegration) and thinking dispositions (rational/experiential thinking and cognitive reflexivity), and (b) 'proximal' predictors under the umbrella 'irrational mindset' (set of unfounded beliefs consisting of conspiratorial thinking, superstition, magical health beliefs as well as selected cognitive biases), which have more content-wise overlap with the health behaviours.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

In this cross-sectional study, a research agency will collect data from a nationally representative sample (n=1043; age 18-75 years; estimated start/end-June/November 2021) recruited online (approximately, 70% of the sample, aged 18-54; 11 years) and face-to-face (approximately, 30% of the sample, aged 55-75 years). Participants will complete a battery of tests assessing questionable health behaviours, basic personality traits, thinking dispositions, irrational mindset, sociopolitical beliefs, sociodemographic and health-related variables. Prevalence rates will be calculated using descriptive statistics. To explore the relation between (psychological) predictors and questionable health behaviours, we will use hierarchical regression and partial mediation models (path analysis or full SEM models).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical Committees of the Faculty of Philosophy in Belgrade (#935/1), Faculty of Special Education and Rehabilitation (#139/1) and Faculty of Media and Communications (#228) approved the protocol. Only participants who provide informed consent will participate in the study. A research report based on the study results will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals and results will be made available to stakeholders through reports on the project website https://reasonforhealth.f.bg.ac.rs/en/ and disseminated via social media.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT05808660.

Health and Environmental Protective Behavioral Intentions for Reducing Harm from Water Pollutants

Understanding what motivates people to adopt protective behaviors is important in developing effective risk messaging. Motivations may vary depending on the nature of the risk and whether it poses a personal or impersonal threat. Water pollution creates both personal (human health) and impersonal (environmental) threats, yet few studies have examined people's motivations to protect both personal health and environmental health. Protection motivation theory (PMT) uses four key variables to predict what motivates individuals to protect themselves in relation to a perceived threat. Using data from an online survey (n = 621), we investigated the relationships between PMT variables related to health and environmental protective behavioral intentions related to toxic water pollutants among residents in Oregon, Idaho, and Washington, USA. Among PMT variables, high self-efficacy (belief in one's own capacity to carry out certain behaviors) significantly predicted both health and environmental protective behavioral intentions for water pollutants, while perceived severity of the threat was only significant in the environmental behavioral intentions model. Perceived vulnerability and response efficacy (belief that a specific behavior will effectively mitigate the threat) were significant in both models. Education level, political affiliation, and subjective knowledge of pollutants were significant predictors of environmental protective behavioral intentions, but not health protective behavioral intentions. The results of this study suggest that when communicating environmental risks of water pollution, highlighting self-efficacy in messaging is particularly important to promote protective environmental and personal health behavior.

Intermediate levels of scientific knowledge are associated with overconfidence and negative attitudes towards science

Overconfidence is a prevalent problem and it is particularly consequential in its relation with scientific knowledge: being unaware of one's own ignorance can affect behaviours and threaten public policies and health. However, it is not clear how confidence varies with knowledge. Here, we examine four large surveys, spanning 30 years in Europe and the United States and propose a new confidence metric. This metric does not rely on self-reporting or peer comparison, operationalizing (over)confidence as the tendency to give incorrect answers rather than 'don't know' responses to questions on scientific facts. We find a nonlinear relationship between knowledge and confidence, with overconfidence (the confidence gap) peaking at intermediate levels of actual scientific knowledge. These high-confidence/intermediate-knowledge groups also display the least positive attitudes towards science. These results differ from current models and, by identifying specific audiences, can help inform science communication strategies.

Metacognitive effects of attitudinal (in)congruence on social media: relating processing fluency, subjective knowledge, and political participation

Introduction

Encountering political disagreements in our daily lives can discourage us from participating in democratic processes. To date, research has mainly focused on social motives or attitudinal mechanisms to explain this phenomenon. In the present study, we adopt a different approach and highlight metacognitive effects of attitudinal (in)congruence on processing fluency (i.e., perceived ease of processing) and subjective knowledge as well as their relationship with behavioral outcomes such as the intention to politically participate.

Methods

In a pre-registered online experiment (N = 1,258), participants saw a political social media post with six opinionated user-generated comments. These comments either all matched (congruent condition) or contradicted (incongruent condition) participants' personal opinions. Processing fluency, issue specific subjective knowledge, and intention to politically participate were then measured using established self-report scales.

Results

In line with our hypotheses, the congruent stimuli evoked a higher feeling of processing fluency than the incongruent ones (d = 0.21). Furthermore, participants in the congruent condition indicated a higher intention to politically participate (d = 0.23) and rated their own knowledge on the topic as higher (d = 0.22) than participants in the incongruent condition-even though the factual knowledge gain should be equal in both conditions. Finally, we observed positive relationships between processing fluency and subjective issue knowledge (β = 0.11) as well as between subjective issue knowledge and issue-specific political participation (β = 0.43).

Discussion

Our findings highlight the importance of considering metacognitive constructs such as subjective knowledge to explain political behaviors and suggest that attitudinal congruence influences the way we perceive our own knowledge and information processing.

Narcissistic susceptibility to conspiracy beliefs exaggerated by education, reduced by cognitive reflection

Conspiracy theories are alternate viewpoints of provided explanations; sensational stories revolving around small groups exerting control for nefarious reasons. Recent events and research have outlined myriad negative social and personal outcomes for those who endorse them. Prior research suggests several predictors of susceptibility to conspiracy theories, including narcissistic personality traits (grandiosity, need for uniqueness), cognitive processes (critical thinking, confirmation bias) and lack of education. The aim of the current paper was to explore how facets of narcissism predict susceptibility to conspiracy theories. It was expected that narcissism would be a positive predictor, but education and cognitive reflection would act as protective factors, reducing this effect. Study one utilized an international survey (N = 323) to investigate the role of education as a protective tool in the relationship between narcissistic traits and conspiratorial beliefs. Support was found for the hypotheses that individuals with higher levels of grandiosity, vulnerable narcissism, a strive for uniqueness, and a strive for supremacy predicted higher levels of conspiracy endorsement. Higher education and STEM education were associated with lower levels of conspiracy endorsement, however all significant moderations indicated that for narcissistic individuals, education increased their likelihood of adopting conspiracy beliefs, contrary to expectation. To investigate this further, study two analyzed a large-scale publicly available dataset (N = 51,404) to assess the relationship between narcissism, critical thinking skills (specifically cognitive reflection) and conspiracy beliefs pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic. As expected, analysis found narcissism and poor cognitive reflection (intuitive thinking) as predictors of conspiracy beliefs. Higher levels of cognitive reflection were found to be protective, moderating and reducing the impact of narcissism on endorsement of conspiracy theories. The findings suggest that cognitive reflection, but not education protect against narcissistic conspiracy belief. Moreover, that cognitive reflection may have a lessened effect against conspiracy theories adopted for social or ideological reasons. These findings improve understanding of both the role and limitations of education/critical thinking skills as protective factors against conspiracy theory endorsement.

Psychedelics: Science sabotaged by Social Media

The substantial challenges facing high and low dose psychedelic drug development to achieve regulatory approval have been documented in the scientific literature. These limitations have not deterred drug developers and social media from repeatedly misleading patients, the public and health professionals. Developing "micro doses" of psychedelics overcomes many of the scientific and regulatory challenges of high dose psychedelics. If micro-dosing could be shown to be efficacious and safe for long term use, it could be administered in the typical model for treatment of mental disorders. Such a model would be more cost effective than the high dose/intense psychotherapy model currently described and could be readily available to all individuals who need another medication option. Outpatient psychotherapeutic agents have a clear route for approval and would be unlikely to be burdened by the extensive Risks Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy needed for high dose use. There may be a different therapeutic role for both high and low dose psychedelic agents. This article is part of the Special Issue on "National Institutes of Health Psilocybin Research Speaker Series".

Both trust in, and polarization of trust in, relevant sciences have increased through the COVID-19 pandemic

While attempts to promote acceptance of well-evidenced science have historically focused on increasing scientific knowledge, it is now thought that for acceptance of science, trust in, rather than simply knowledge of, science is foundational. Here we employ the COVID-19 pandemic as a natural experiment on trust modulation as it has enabled unprecedented exposure of science. We ask whether trust in science has on the average altered, whether trust has changed the same way for all and, if people have responded differently, what predicts these differences? We 1) categorize the nature of self-reported change in trust in "scientists" in a random sample of over 2000 UK adults after the introduction of the first COVID vaccines, 2) ask whether any reported change is likely to be real through consideration of both a negative control and through experiment, and 3) address what predicts change in trust considering sex, educational attainment, religiosity, political attitude, age and pre-pandemic reported trust. We find that many more (33%) report increased trust towards "scientists" than report decreased trust (7%), effects of this magnitude not being seen in negative controls. Only age and prior degree of trust predict change in trust, the older population increasing trust more. The prior degree of trust effect is such that those who say they did not trust science prior to the pandemic are more likely to report becoming less trusting, indicative of both trust polarization and a backfire effect. Since change in trust is predictive of willingness to have a COVID-19 vaccine, it is likely that these changes have public health consequences.

People with more extreme attitudes towards science have self-confidence in their understanding of science, even if this is not justified

People differ greatly in their attitudes towards well-evidenced science. What characterises this variation? Here, we consider this issue in the context of genetics and allied sciences. While most prior research has focused on the relationship between attitude to science and what people know about it, recent evidence suggests that individuals with strongly negative attitudes towards specific genetic technologies (genetic modification (GM) technology and vaccines) commonly do not objectively understand the science, but, importantly, believe that they do. Here, using data from a probability survey of United Kingdom adults, we extend this prior work in 2 regards. First, we ask whether people with more extreme attitudes, be they positive or negative, are more likely to believe that they understand the science. Second, as negativity to genetics is commonly framed around issues particular to specific technologies, we ask whether attitudinal trends are contingent on specification of technology. We find (1) that individuals with strongly positive or negative attitudes towards genetics more strongly believe that they well understand the science; but (2) only for those most positive to the science is this self-confidence warranted; and (3) these effects are not contingent on specification of any particular technologies. These results suggest a potentially general model to explain why people differ in their degree of acceptance or rejection of science, this being that the more someone believes they understand the science, the more confident they will be in their acceptance or rejection of it. While there are more technology nonspecific opponents who also oppose GM technology than expected by chance, most GM opponents fit a different demographic. For the most part, opposition to GM appears not to reflect a smokescreen concealing a broader underlying negativity.