How orientations to expertise condition the acceptance of (mis)information

This review explores psychological barriers to the acceptance of expert guidance. Specifically, the constructs of epistemic overconfidence, institutional distrust, anti-expert sentiments, anti-establishment orientations, science populism, and conspiracist worldviews are jointly considered as orientations to expertise. I review the state of the literature on their origins, prevalence, and effects on misinformation endorsement and acceptance of corrections. Addressing these psychological barriers requires building trust in institutions, backed by transparent communication and the involvement of community-based, non-expert messengers. As the review synthesizes disparate research strands, it underscores the need for future studies to compare, validate, and consolidate different orientations to expertise, understand causal relationships, and explore generalizability to diverse contexts.

Overconfidence effects and learning motivation refreshing BLS: An observational questionnaire study

Aim of the study

Regular refresher skill courses are necessary to maintain competence in basic life support. The utilization of these training programs strongly depends on the motivation to learn. Learning motivation may be affected by overconfidence and clinical tribalism, as they both imply a higher competence compared to others, and therefore, a lower demand for training. This study aimed to assess how overconfidence in basic life support competencies affects learning motivation.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional, observational, multicenter, anonymous online questionnaire survey using validated psychometric tests for healthcare professionals in Germany. Further, we tested participants' knowledge and attitude regarding international basic life support guidelines. The study was conducted between March and April 2022, and healthcare providers from 22 German emergency medical services and hospitals at all levels were assessed.

Results

Of 2,000 healthcare professionals assessed, 407 completed the assessment (response rate, 20.4%). We confirmed the presence of overconfidence and clinical tribalism (identity differentiation between social groups) among the 407 physicians, nurses, and emergency medical service providers who completed the survey. Three different learning-motivation groups emerged from cluster analysis: "experts" (confident and motivated), "recruitables" (overconfident and motivated), and "unawares" (overconfident and unmotivated). The three groups were present in all professional groups, independent of the frequency of exposure to cardiac arrest and educational level.

Conclusions

These findings showed the presence of overconfidence effects and different learning motivation types in individuals learning basic life support, even in instructors.

Overconfidence at the time of COVID-19:Does it lead to laxer attitudes?

BACKGROUND

Health education campaigns often aim to create awareness by increasing objective knowledge about pathogens, such as COVID-19. However, the present paper proposes that confidence in one's knowledge more than knowledge is a significant factor that leads to a laxer attitude toward COVID-19 and hence lower support for protective measures and reduced intention to comply with preemptive behaviors.

METHODS

We tested two hypotheses in three studies conducted between 2020 and 2022. In Study 1, we assessed participants' level of knowledge and confidence, as well as attitudes toward COVID-19. In Study 2, we tested the relation between fear of COVID-19 and protective behaviors. In Study 3, we used an experimental approach to show the causal effect of overconfidence on fear of COVID-19. In addition to manipulating overconfidence and measuring fear of COVID-19, we also measured prophylactic behaviors.

RESULTS

In Study 1, more overconfident participants had a laxer attitude toward COVID-19. While knowledge had an increasing effect on worry, confidence in said knowledge significantly decreased worry about COVID-19. In Study 2, participants who were more worried about COVID-19 were more likely to engage in protective behaviors (e.g., wearing masks). In Study 3, we show that when overconfidence was experimentally diminished, fear of COVID-19 increased. The results support our claim that the effect of overconfidence on attitudes toward COVID-19 is causal in nature. Moreover, the results show that people with higher fear of COVID-19 are more likely to wear masks, use hand sanitizers, avoid crowded places or social gatherings, and get vaccinated.

CONCLUSIONS

Managing adherence to public health measures is critical when it comes to highly infectious diseases. Our findings suggest that efficient information campaigns to increase adherence to public health measures should focus on calibrating people's confidence in their knowledge about COVID-19 to prevent the spread of the virus.

Which return regime induces overconfidence behavior? Artificial intelligence and a nonlinear approach

Overconfidence behavior, one form of positive illusion, has drawn considerable attention throughout history because it is viewed as the main reason for many crises. Investors' overconfidence, which can be observed as overtrading following positive returns, may lead to inefficiencies in stock markets. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the presence of investor overconfidence by employing an artificial intelligence technique and a nonlinear approach to impulse responses to analyze the impact of different return regimes on the overconfidence attitude. We examine whether investors in an emerging stock market (Borsa Istanbul) exhibit overconfidence behavior using a feed-forward, neural network, nonlinear Granger causality test and nonlinear impulse-response functions based on local projections. These are the first applications in the relevant literature due to the novelty of these models in forecasting high-dimensional, multivariate time series. The results obtained from distinguishing between the different market regimes to analyze the responses of trading volume to return shocks contradict those in the literature, which is the key contribution of the study. The empirical findings imply that overconfidence behavior exhibits asymmetries in different return regimes and is persistent during the 20-day forecasting horizon. Overconfidence is more persistent in the low- than in the high-return regime. In the negative interest-rate period, a high-return regime induces overconfidence behavior, whereas in the positive interest-rate period, a low-return regime induces overconfidence behavior. Based on the empirical findings, investors should be aware that portfolio gains may result in losses depending on aggressive and excessive trading strategies, particularly in low-return regimes.

The impact of blockchain on optimal incentive contracts for online supply chain finance

In China, supply chain finance is still in infancy. However, it is the problems of information sharing, trust transfer, and risk management that have been making it difficult to meet the financing needs of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in supply chain. The emerging blockchain technology, with its unique decentralization, traceability, and other characteristics, has found a digital solution for traditional supply chain finance. Although blockchain has attracted widespread attention and there are more general descriptions of blockchain application areas, there are few researches on the impact mechanisms of blockchain in-depth. Especially in the field of supply chain finance, there is little research on optimal incentive contract in online supply chain finance empowered by blockchain technology. Therefore, this paper explores the influence of blockchain technology maturity on participants, and thus finds the optimal incentive contract in online supply chain empowered by blockchain technology. Because of the mastery of blockchain technology, platforms believe they are well protected against risk and may behave irrationally. Therefore, this paper considers the overconfident behavior of blockchain supply chain finance platform in actual operation, and then applies the principal-agent model and incentive theory to design the incentive mechanism between platforms, banks, and central banks. Finally, numerical analyses show that overconfident behavior and the maturity of blockchain technology have an impact on the optimal decision for the whole supply chain.

Do task and item difficulty affect overestimation of one's hand hygiene compliance? A cross-sectional survey of physicians and nurses in surgical clinics of six hospitals in Germany

BACKGROUND

One barrier to hand hygiene compliance is overestimation of one's own performance. Overconfidence research shows that overestimation tends to be higher for difficult tasks, which suggests that the magnitude of overestimation also depends on how it is assessed. Thus, we tested the hypothesis that overestimation was stronger for hand hygiene indications with low compliance (i.e., high difficulty), and the hypothesis that self-reported overall compliance based on a single item is higher than based on "5 Moments of Hand Hygiene" (WHO-5) items, since the single item implies an aggregation across indications.

METHODS

In the WACH trial (German Clinical Trials Register [DRKS] ID: DRKS00015502), a questionnaire survey was conducted among physicians and nurses in nine surgical clinics (general/visceral surgery or orthopedics/trauma surgery) of six German hospitals. Self-reported compliance was assessed both by a single item and the WHO-5-items using percentage scales. These were compared with each other and with direct observations. Relative frequencies of the WHO-5 indications used to calculate the WHO-5-based self-reported overall compliance rate were estimated by a systematized review of the literature (see appendix). In analysis, t-tests, Chi²-tests and multiple linear regressions were used.

RESULTS

Ninety-three physicians (response rate: 28.4%) and 225 nurses (30.4%) participated. Significant compliance differences between physicians and nurses were found for direct observations and were in favor of nurses, while no such differences were found for self-reports. Across the WHO-5, overestimation showed inverse correlations with observed compliance (physicians: r = -0.88, p = 0.049; nurses: r = -0.81, p = 0.093). Support for the hypothesis that the self-reported overall compliance based on one item is higher than that based on WHO-5 items was found for physicians (M = 87.2 vs. 84.1%, p = 0.041; nurses: 84.4 vs. 85.5%, p = 0.296). Exploratory analyses showed that this effect was confined to orthopedic/trauma surgeons (89.9 vs. 81.7%, p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

Among physicians, results indicate stronger hand hygiene overestimation for low-compliance indications, and when measurements are based on a single item versus the five WHO-5 items. For practice, results contribute to infection prevention and control's understanding of overestimation as a psychological mechanism that is relevant to professional hand hygiene.

Traffic costs of air pollution: the effect of PM2.5 on traffic violation

Although emerging studies have investigated the effect of air pollution on traffic crashes, it is unclear to scholars whether air pollution affects another road safety problem-traffic violations. To address this gap, the current paper constructs a data set from 1,390,221 traffic violation records of 640,971 drivers from the Wuhan Traffic Management Bureau between January 2018 and December 2018. An ordered logistic regression was conducted to verify our hypotheses. The result shows that PM_2.5 has no overall impact on the severity of traffic violations, but each 1% increase in the daily concentration of PM_2.5 leads to a 1.02-fold increase in the odds of serious inexperience-related violations and a 0.99-fold decrease in the odds of serious overconfidence-related violations. This effect is the strongest in PM_2.5, followed by NO₂, and has not been observed in CO and O₃. In addition, robustness tests indicate that the relationship between air pollution and traffic violations is consistent among the different subsets (e.g., clear weather, no rain and snow, and good visibility). We also provide valuable practical advice for drivers and traffic authorities.

The better to fool you with: Deception and self-deception

Deception is used by plants, animals, and humans to increase their fitness by persuading others of false beliefs that benefit the self, thereby creating evolutionary pressure to detect deception and avoid providing such unearned benefits to others. Self-deception can disrupt detection efforts by eliminating cognitive load and idiosyncratic deceptive cues, raising the possibility that persuading others of a false belief might be more achievable after first persuading oneself. If people self-deceive in service of their persuasive goals, self-deception should emerge whenever persuasion is paramount and hence should be evident in information sharing, generalized beliefs about the self, and intergroup relations. The mechanism, costs, and benefits of self-deceptive biases are explored from this evolutionary perspective.

"The better you feel, the harder you fall": Health perception biases and mental health among Chinese adults during the COVID-19 pandemic

The health risks of the current COVID-19 pandemic, together with the drastic mitigation measures taken in many affected nations, pose an obvious threat to public mental health. To assess predictors of poor mental health in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study first implements survey-based measures of health perception biases among Chinese adults during the pandemic. Then, it analyzes their relation to three mental health outcomes: life satisfaction, happiness, and depression (as measured by the CES-D). We show that the health overconfidence displayed by approximately 30% of the survey respondents is a clear risk factor for mental health problems; it is a statistically significant predictor of depression and low levels of happiness and life satisfaction. We also document that these effects are stronger in regions that experienced higher numbers of confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our results offer clear guidelines for the implementation of effective interventions to temper health overconfidence, particularly in uncontrollable situations like the COVID-19 pandemic.

Decision making dyads and judgement overconfidence: Implications for high-risk industries

In the workplace, overconfidence is generally considered undesirable as it may increase people's propensity to take risks. In many areas (e.g., aviation, shipping, nuclear control, and driving), risk-taking is detrimental to safety. We hypothesised that decision-makers would be overconfident and, due to group polarisation, decision-making pairs would be more overconfident than single decision-makers. As was predicted, when answering a 24-item general knowledge questionnaire (d = 0.94) and a task exploring how they might reorient themselves if lost (d = 1.93), participants (N = 63) were overconfident about their performance; importantly, participants in pairs (n = 32) were more overconfident on general knowledge (Hedges' g = 0.51) and lost procedures (Hedges' g = 0.52), than were participants who completed the tasks alone (n = 31). The findings imply that in some situations, single decision-makers may exhibit less overconfidence. The safety implications for a number of areas are discussed.

Measures of mental health and addictions conditions show a U-shaped relationship with self-rated worker performance

BACKGROUND

Reports of a meaningful relationship between mental health-related conditions and work productivity measures are relatively common. These, however, are frequently examined for their linearity while ignoring untapped, and potentially rich, non-linear associations.

METHODS

Following a serendipitous finding of a curvilinear relationship between workplace presenteeism (lowered productivity while at work) and depression, an investigation was undertaken of the association between worklife prevalence measures of presenteeism (measured by the W.H.O. Health & Work Performance Questionnaire) and lifetime prevalence of twelve psychosocial vulnerabilities, encompassing mental health, mental health-related, and addictive conditions. Linear and quadratic (U-shaped) functions were calculated across the "relative" presenteeism measure (self vs. other workers) for each of the 12 conditions.

RESULTS

A visual analysis revealed a U-shaped graphic function in all conditions, and excepting anxiety all were statistically significant. In general, increases beyond the lowest ("poorest") level of self-reported comparative productivity were associated with increases in psychosocial stability, but only as far as deemed equality. Beyond that, increases in self-confidence resulted in a reversal, thus returning to a higher level of vulnerability for the condition in question. A cursory scan of five relevant journals indicated that non-linear analyses were often possible, but rarely carried out.

CONCLUSIONS

This has informative value for our conceptualization of overconfidence, and it begs the question of whether an over-reliance on linear measures has caused us to overlook important curvilinear human relationships. The inclusion of analyses of non-linear functions is suggested as a matter of course for future studies.

Biased health perceptions and risky health behaviors-Theory and evidence

This paper investigates the role of biased health perceptions as a potential driving force of risky health behaviors. We define absolute and relative health perception biases, illustrate their measurement in surveys and provide evidence on their relevance. Next, we decompose the theoretical effect into its extensive and intensive margin: When the extensive margin dominates, people (wrongly) believe they are healthy enough to "afford" unhealthy behavior. Finally, using three population surveys, we provide robust empirical evidence that respondents who overestimate their health are less likely to exercise and sleep enough, but more likely to eat unhealthily and drink alcohol daily.

Traffic campaigns and overconfidence: An experimental approach

We use a controlled experiment to analyze the impact of watching different types of educational traffic campaign videos on overconfidence of undergraduate university students in Brazil. The videos have the same underlying traffic educational content but differ in the form of exhibition. We find that videos with shocking content (Australian school) are more effective in reducing drivers' overconfidence, followed by those with punitive content (American school). We do not find empirical evidence that videos with technical content (European school) change overconfidence. Since several works point to a strong association between overconfidence and road safety, our study can support the conduit of driving safety measures by identifying efficient ways of reducing drivers' overconfidence. Finally, this paper also introduces how to use machine learning techniques to mitigate the usual subjectivity in the design of the econometric specification that is commonly faced in many researches in experimental economics.

Global-Local Incompatibility: The Misperception of Reliability in Judgment Regarding Global Variables

A number of important decision domains, including decisions about hiring, global warming, and weather hazards, are characterized by a global-local incompatibility. These domains involve variables that cannot be observed by a single decision maker (DM) and require the integration of observations from locally available information cues. This paper presents a new bifocal lens model that describes how the structure of the environment can lead to a unique form of overconfidence when generalizing the reliability of the local environment to a global scale. When the local environment does not reliably reflect the global environment, they are incompatible. While local perspectives vary across DMs, global-local incompatibility can be understood using the structure of classical test theory as the difference between (a) perceived estimates of the reliability derived from the local environment and (b) the true reliability of the local environment. I model global-local incompatibility as the difference between the true and estimated reliability when the assumptions of classical test theory are violated. Using a series of case studies and an empirical study, I demonstrate the widespread utility of this framework, and I conclude by discussing implications for cognitive-ecological theory, risk communication, and overconfidence.

Using virtual reality to explore differences in memory biases and cognitive insight in people with psychosis and healthy controls

Memory biases (e.g. overconfidence in false memories) are implicated in the pathogenesis of delusions. Virtual reality (VR) may provide an opportunity to observe such biases and improve cognitive insight in patients with psychosis via corrective feedback. Thirty-nine patients with psychosis and 20 healthy controls explored VR environments designed to elicit false memories and subsequently had to recollect items and faces. We used a randomised-controlled design where half of the sample received performance feedback on the recollection task in order to correct overconfidence. Changes in cognitive insight were measured using the Beck Cognitive Insight Scale. Regarding accuracy, patients performed worse on the social task (recollection of faces) only. Patients displayed overconfidence in false memories for emotions and gave more high-confident responses compared to healthy controls on the social task. Feedback did not improve cognitive insight. Patients rated their cognitive insight higher than healthy controls. Future research should address problems with subjective measurements for cognitive insight. To conclude, patients with psychosis showed impaired social cognition and there was evidence for impaired metacognition, as patients reported higher cognitive insight despite comparable or worse performance as well as overconfidence relative to controls.

Foundations of Arrogance: A Broad Survey and Framework for Research

We consider the topic of arrogance from a cross-disciplinary viewpoint. To stimulate further research, we suggest three types of arrogance (individual, comparative, and antagonistic) and six components contributing to them, each logically related to the next. The components progress from imperfect knowledge and abilities to an unrealistic assessment of them, an unwarranted attitude of superiority over other people, and related derisive behavior. Although each component presumably is present to some degree when the next one operates, causality might flow between components in either direction. The classification of components of arrogance should reduce miscommunication among researchers, as the relevant concepts and mechanisms span cognitive, motivational, social, and clinical domains and literatures. Arrogance is an important concept warranting further study for both theoretical and practical reasons, in both psychopathology and normal social interaction. Everyone seems to have qualities of arrogance to some degree, and we consider the importance of arrogance on a spectrum. We contend that humankind can benefit from a better understanding of the cognitive limitations and motivational biases that, operating together, appear to contribute to arrogance. We bring together information and questions that might lead to an invigorating increase in the rate and quality of cross-disciplinary research on arrogance.

Is a picture really worth a thousand words? Evaluating contributions of fluency and analytic processing in metacognitive judgements for pictures in foreign language vocabulary learning

Previous research shows that participants are overconfident in their ability to learn foreign language vocabulary from pictures compared with English translations. The current study explored whether this tendency is due to processing fluency or beliefs about learning. Using self-paced study of Swahili words paired with either picture cues or English translation cues, picture cues garnered higher confidence judgements but not faster study times, and this was true whether judgements of learning were made after a delay (Experiment 1) or immediately (Experiment 2). In Experiment 3, when participants learned Swahili words with only one type of cue (pictures or English translations) and then estimated which one would be more effective for learning, the majority of participants believed pictures would be more effective regardless of whether they had experienced those cues during learning. Experiment 4 showed the same results when participants had experienced neither type of cue during a learning phase. These results suggest that metacognitive judgements in foreign language vocabulary learning are driven more by students' beliefs about learning than by processing fluency as reflected in self-paced study times.

Individual differences in higher-level cognitive abilities do not predict overconfidence in complex task performance

Even when people perform tasks poorly, they often report unrealistically positive estimates of their own abilities in these situations. To better understand the origins of such overconfidence, we investigated whether it could be predicted by individual differences in working memory, attentional control, and self-reported trait impulsivity. Overconfidence was estimated by contrasting objective and subjective measures of situation awareness (the ability to perceive and understand task-relevant information in the environment), acquired during a challenging air traffic control simulation. We found no significant relationships between overconfidence and either working memory or attentional control. However, increased impulsivity significantly predicted greater overconfidence. In addition, overall levels of overconfidence were lower in our complex task than in previous studies that used less-complex lab-based tasks. Our results suggest that overconfidence may not be linked to high-level cognitive abilities, but that dynamic tasks with frequent opportunities for performance feedback may reduce misconceptions about personal performance.

The hazards of perception: evaluating a change blindness demonstration within a real-world driver education course

Overconfidence in one's driving ability can lead to risky decision-making and may therefore increase the accident risk. When educating people about the risks of their driving behavior, it is all too easy for individuals to assume that the message is not meant for them and so can be ignored. In this study we developed and assessed the effect of a road safety demonstration based around the phenomenon of change blindness within a real-world Driver Awareness Course. We collected quantitative and qualitative data to evaluate the effectiveness of the demonstration in both a police-led environment (Experiment 1) and a laboratory environment (Experiment 2). We also compared the change blindness intervention to two control tasks. The results showed that participants' self-reported ability to spot important visual changes was reduced after the change blindness demonstration in both experiments, but was not reduced after participation in the control tasks of Experiment 2. Furthermore, participants described the change blindness demonstrations positively and would recommend that they were shown more widely.

High-fidelity is not superior to low-fidelity simulation but leads to overconfidence in medical students

BACKGROUND

Simulation has become integral to the training of both undergraduate medical students and medical professionals. Due to the increasing degree of realism and range of features, the latest mannequins are referred to as high-fidelity simulators. Whether increased realism leads to a general improvement in trainees' outcomes is currently controversial and there are few data on the effects of these simulators on participants' personal confidence and self-assessment.

METHODS

One-hundred-and-thirty-five fourth-year medical students were randomly allocated to participate in either a high- or a low-fidelity simulated Advanced Life Support training session. Theoretical knowledge and self-assessment pre- and post-tests were completed. Students' performance in simulated scenarios was recorded and rated by experts.

RESULTS

Participants in both groups showed a significant improvement in theoretical knowledge in the post-test as compared to the pre-test, without significant intergroup differences. Performance, as assessed by video analysis, was comparable between groups, but, unexpectedly, the low-fidelity group had significantly better results in several sub-items. Irrespective of the findings, participants of the high-fidelity group considered themselves to be advantaged, solely based on their group allocation, compared with those in the low-fidelity group, at both pre- and post-self-assessments. Self-rated confidence regarding their individual performance was also significantly overrated.

CONCLUSION

The use of high-fidelity simulation led to equal or even worse performance and growth in knowledge as compared to low-fidelity simulation, while also inducing undesirable effects such as overconfidence. Hence, in this study, it was not beneficial compared to low-fidelity, but rather proved to be an adverse learning tool.

Actively open-minded thinking in politics

The concept of actively open-minded thinking (AOT) provides standards for evaluation of thinking, which apply both to our own thinking and to the thinking of others. AOT is important for good citizenship for three reasons: it provides a prescription for individual thinking about political decisions; it serves as a social norm (when others agree); and, perhaps most importantly, it provides a standard for knowing which sources to trust, including politicians and pundits. I provide a current account of AOT as a general prescriptive theory that defines a standard or norm for all thinking, with emphasis on its role in the judgment of the thinking of others, and in maintaining appropriate confidence. I also contrast AOT with other standards. AOT does not assume that more thinking is always better, and it implies that low confidence in the results of thinking is often warranted and beneficial. I discuss the measurement of AOT and its relation to politics. Finally, I report two preliminary studies of AOT in judgments of others thoughts, and the role of confidence.

Can financial incentives help people trying to establish new habits? Experimental evidence with new gym members

Can financial incentives aid habit formation in people attempting to establish a positive health behavior? We provide evidence on this question from a randomized controlled trial of modest-sized incentives to attend the gym among new members of a fitness facility. Our experiment randomized 690 participants into a control group that received a $30 payment unconditionally or one of 3 incentive groups that received a payment for attending the gym at least 9 times over the first 6 weeks of membership. Two incentive treatment arms offered monetary payments of $30 and $60. The third incentive treatment, motivated by the endowment effect, offered a physical item worth $30. All three incentives had only small impacts on attendance during members' first 6 weeks and no effect on their post-incentive visit trajectories. We document substantial overconfidence among new members about their likely visits and discuss how overconfidence may undermine the effectiveness of incentive programs.

Overfeed the Bold, Starve the Cowardly: A Legend or Reality?

Although the negative effects of overconfidence are more likely to be mentioned in the literature, some researchers have argued that the benefits of overconfidence may outweigh its costs. We attempted to explore the positive effects of overconfidence in competitive situations. We had participants compete against fake opponents who were overconfident and then measured their competitive performance in two studies. In Study 1 we examined the effects of overconfidence on competitive performance in a competitive situation and the possible mechanism for this overconfidence. In Study 2 we investigated the characteristics of the performance in a competition after a mismatch between the level of confidence and the fake opponent's actual competence was revealed. Our results indicated that overconfident individuals tend to be perceived as more competent and more likely to benefit in the process of competition. Even after a mismatch between the level of confidence and the real competence was revealed, the overconfident individuals were not punished in that they made as much money as the less overconfident and still got higher competence ratings. Together those studies suggested that overconfidence has its advantages in competitive situations.

Unskilled and unaware in the classroom: College students' desired grades predict their biased grade predictions

People tend to be overconfident when predicting their performance on a variety of physical and mental tasks (i.e., they predict they will perform better than they actually do). Such a pattern is commonly found in educational settings, in which many students greatly overestimate how well they will perform on exams. In particular, the lowest-performing students tend to show the greatest overconfidence (i.e., the "unskilled-and-unaware" effect). Such overconfidence can have deleterious effects on the efficacy of students' short-term study behaviors (i.e., underpreparing for exams) and long-term academic decisions (i.e., changing one's academic major to an "easier" topic or dropping out of school completely). To help understand why students' grade predictions are often overconfident, we examined the hypothesis that students' grade predictions are biased by their desired levels of performance, which are often much higher than their actual levels of performance. Across three studies in which actual students made predictions about their exam performance in their courses, we demonstrated that students' grade predictions are highly biased by their desired grades on those exams. We obtained this result when students predicted their exam grades over a week before the exam (Study 1), immediately after taking the exam (Study 2), and across the four course exams in a single semester (Study 3). These results are informative for understanding why the "unskilled-and-unaware" pattern of performance predictions occurs, and why people in general tend to be overconfident when making both physical and mental performance predictions.

Why are children overconfident? Developmental differences in the implementation of accessibility cues when judging concept learning

Children are often overconfident when monitoring their learning, which is harmful for effective control and learning. The current study investigated children's (N=167, age range 7-12years) judgments of learning (JOLs) when studying difficult concepts. The main aims were (a) to investigate how JOL accuracy is affected by accessibility cues and (b) to investigate developmental changes in implementing accessibility cues in JOLs. After studying different concepts, children were asked to generate novel sentences and then to make JOLs, select concepts for restudy, and take a final test. Overconfidence for incorrect and incomplete test responses was reduced for older children in comparison with younger children. For older age groups, generating a sentence led to greater overconfidence compared with not being able to generate a sentence, which indicates that older children relied more on accessibility cues when making JOLs. This pattern differed in the youngest age group; younger children were generally overconfident regardless of whether they had generated sentences or not. Overconfidence was disadvantageous for effective control of learning for all age groups. These findings imply that instructions to encourage children to avoid metacognitive illusions need to be adapted to children's developmental stage.

Overconfidence across the psychosis continuum: a calibration approach

INTRODUCTION

An 'overconfidence in errors' bias has been consistently observed in people with schizophrenia relative to healthy controls, however, the bias is seldom found to be associated with delusional ideation. Using a more precise confidence-accuracy calibration measure of overconfidence, the present study aimed to explore whether the overconfidence bias is greater in people with higher delusional ideation.

METHODS

A sample of 25 participants with schizophrenia and 50 non-clinical controls (25 high- and 25 low-delusion-prone) completed 30 difficult trivia questions (accuracy <75%); 15 'half-scale' items required participants to indicate their level of confidence for accuracy, and the remaining 'confidence-range' items asked participants to provide lower/upper bounds in which they were 80% confident the true answer lay within.

RESULTS

There was a trend towards higher overconfidence for half-scale items in the schizophrenia and high-delusion-prone groups, which reached statistical significance for confidence-range items. However, accuracy was particularly low in the two delusional groups and a significant negative correlation between clinical delusional scores and overconfidence was observed for half-scale items within the schizophrenia group. Evidence in support of an association between overconfidence and delusional ideation was therefore mixed.

CONCLUSIONS

Inflated confidence-accuracy miscalibration for the two delusional groups may be better explained by their greater unawareness of their underperformance, rather than representing genuinely inflated overconfidence in errors.

Metacognitive Awareness of Facial Affect in Higher-Functioning Children and Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Higher-functioning participants with and without autism spectrum disorder (ASD) viewed a series of face stimuli, made decisions regarding the affect of each face, and indicated their confidence in each decision. Confidence significantly predicted accuracy across all participants, but this relation was stronger for participants with typical development than participants with ASD. In the hierarchical linear modeling analysis, there were no differences in face processing accuracy between participants with and without ASD, but participants with ASD were more confident in their decisions. These results suggest that individuals with ASD have metacognitive impairments and are overconfident in face processing. Additionally, greater metacognitive awareness was predictive of better face processing accuracy, suggesting that metacognition may be a pivotal skill to teach in interventions.

Why drivers use cell phones and support legislation to restrict this practice

The use of cell phones while driving is ubiquitous, particularly in countries where the practice is legal. However, surveys indicate that most drivers favor legislation to limit the use of mobile devices during the operation of a vehicle. A study was conducted to understand this inconsistency between what drivers do and what they advocate for others. Participants completed a survey about their driving attitudes, abilities, and behaviors. Following previous research, drivers reported using cell phones for benefits such as getting work done. The hypocrisy of using cell phones while advocating restrictions appears to stem from differences in the perceived safety risks of self vs. others' use of cell phones. Many if not most drivers believe they can drive safely while using mobile devices. However, they lack confidence in others' ability to drive safely while distracted and believe that others' use of cell phones is dangerous. The threat to public safety of others' usage of mobile devices was one of the strongest independent predictors of support for legislation to restrict cell phone use.

The influence of retrieval practice on metacognition: The contribution of analytic and non-analytic processes

People may change their memory predictions after retrieval practice using naïve theories of memory and/or by using subjective experience - analytic and non-analytic processes respectively. The current studies disentangled contributions of each process. In one condition, learners studied paired-associates, made a memory prediction, completed a short-run of retrieval practice and made a second prediction. In another condition, judges read about a yoked learners' retrieval practice performance but did not participate in retrieval practice and therefore, could not use non-analytic processes for the second prediction. In Study 1, learners reduced their predictions following moderately difficult retrieval practice whereas judges increased their predictions. In Study 2, learners made lower adjusted predictions than judges following both easy and difficult retrieval practice. In Study 3, judge-like participants used analytic processes to report adjusted predictions. Overall, the results suggested non-analytic processes play a key role for participants to reduce their predictions after retrieval practice.

A randomized controlled evaluation study of the effects of a one-day advanced rider training course

Motorcyclists have a relative high risk of crash involvement. As a consequence there is an on-going search for safety measures to improve road safety for motorcyclists. One popular measure is motorcycle training. Although intuitively sound, there are only few thorough studies on rider training courses and they do not always show a positive safety effect. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of the advanced rider training course 'Risk'. Through random assignment motorcyclists (N=222) were assigned to an experimental and control condition. At pre- and post-test, participants completed a questionnaire and their riding behaviour was assessed in an on-road ride. Furthermore, a selection of participants took a hazard perception test at post-test. Participants in the experimental condition (n=137) followed the advanced training course 'Risk' between pre- and post-test.

RESULT

s indicated that trained participants were rated higher on safe riding than the control group. A positive effect was also found for riding behaviour, i.e., speed and position on the road if it needed to be adapted to increase visibility and in reaction to potential hazard. The training did not affect riders' assessment of their own riding behaviour. Overall the trained riders performed better on the hazard perception test. This study is a step forward to demonstrate that motorcyclists' traffic behaviour can be positively influenced by the right training course. Crucial for this training course is that it did not lead to overconfidence, while it quantifiably improved traffic behaviour.

A neuropsychological investigation of decisional certainty

The certainty that one feels following a decision increases decision-making efficiency, but can also result in decreased decision accuracy. In the current study, a neuropsychological approach was used to examine the impact of damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) on core psychological processes promoting decision certainty: selective exposure, overconfidence, and decisiveness. Given previous research demonstrating that vmPFC damage disrupts the generation of negative emotional (somatic) states that have been associated with selective exposure and overconfidence, it was hypothesized that damage to the vmPFC would disrupt engagement in selective exposure, decrease overconfidence, and increase indecision. Individuals with vmPFC damage exhibited increased indecision, but contrary to our hypothesis, engaged in similar levels of selective exposure and overconfidence as the comparison groups. These results indicate that indecision may be an important psychological mechanism involved in decision-making impairments associated with vmPFC injury. The results also suggest that the vmPFC may not be critical for selective exposure or overconfidence, which provides support for a recent "desirability" account of selective exposure.

Overestimation of knowledge about word meanings: the "misplaced meaning" effect

Children and adults may not realize how much they depend on external sources in understanding word meanings. Four experiments investigated the existence and developmental course of a "Misplaced Meaning" (MM) effect, wherein children and adults overestimate their knowledge about the meanings of various words by underestimating how much they rely on outside sources to determine precise reference. Studies 1 and 2 demonstrate that children and adults show a highly consistent MM effect, and that it is stronger in young children. Study 3 demonstrates that adults are explicitly aware of the availability of outside knowledge, and that this awareness may be related to the strength of the MM effect. Study 4 rules out general overconfidence effects by examining a metalinguistic task in which adults are well calibrated.

But consider the alternative: the influence of positive affect on overconfidence

Three studies find evidence that positive affect reduces comparative overconfidence (overplacement). This occurs because positive affect attenuates focalism via decreasing people's tendency to overweight information regarding themselves in the light of information concerning others. Specifically, Study 1 provides evidence that positive affect leads to more realistic estimates of comparative ability and that other-focus partially mediates this effect. Then, Study 2 provides causal evidence that positive affect independently influences other-focus and that other-focus, in turn, influences overplacement. Additionally, Study 2 uses an indirect measure of focalism to better capture this attentional process. Finally, Study 3 explores the influence of negative affect on overplacement. In addition, each study finds that positive affect does not influence overconfidence regarding participant's raw performances (overestimation) as this type of overconfidence is not dependent on self-other comparisons.

Identifying the Effects of Unjustified Confidence versus Overconfidence: Lessons Learned from Two Analytic Methods

One of the most common findings in behavioral decision research is that people have unrealistic beliefs about how much they know. However, demonstrating that misplaced confidence exists does not necessarily mean that there are costs to it. This paper contrasts two approaches toward answering whether misplaced confidence is good or bad, which we have labeled the overconfidence and unjustified confidence approach. We first consider conceptual and analytic issues distinguishing these approaches. Then, we provide findings from a set of simulations designed to determine when the approaches produce different conclusions across a range of possible confidence-knowledge-outcome relationships. Finally, we illustrate the main findings from the simulations with three empirical examples drawn from our own data. We conclude that the unjustified confidence approach is typically the preferred approach, both because it is appropriate for testing a larger set of psychological mechanisms as well as for methodological reasons.