Widespread habitat loss and redistribution of marine top predators in a changing ocean

Global meta-analysis deciphering ecological restoration performance of dredging: Divergent variabilities of pollutants and hydrobiontes

Global "Sustainable Development Goals" propose ambitious targets to protect water resource and provide clean water, whereas comprehensive understanding of restoration performance and ecological mechanisms are lacking for dredging adopted for purifying polluted waterbodies and maintaining navigation channels. Here, we conducted a global meta-analysis to estimate ecological restoration consequence of dredging as pollution mitigation and navigation channel maintenance measures using a dataset compiled from 191 articles covering 696 studies and 84 environmental and ecological parameters (e.g., pollutants and hydrobiontes). We confirm that dredging shows negative influences on 77.50% pollutants in the BA model (before dredging vs. after dredging) and 84.21% pollutants in the CI model (control vs. impact) as well as on sediment nutrient fluxes. Additionally, 57.14% attributes (i.e., richness, diversity, biomass, and density) of hydrobiontes in the BA model and 89.47% attributes of hydrobiontes in the CI model responded negatively to dredging. As a result, 76.32% of the pollutants and 61.11% of the hydrobiont attributes responded uniformly to dredging in the BA and CI models. Our findings emphasize that dredging generally decreases pollutants and mitigates algal blooms, controlling phosphorus is easier than controlling nitrogen by dredging, and attributes (i.e., richness, diversity, and biomass) of hydrobiontes (i.e., zooplankton, phytoplankton, and zoobenthos) are density-dependent in dredging-disturbed environments. Our findings broaden our knowledge on ecological restoration performance of dredging as a mitigation measure in global aquatic ecosystems, and these findings might be helpful to use and optimize dredging to efficiently and sustainably purify polluted aquatic ecosystems.

Climate mediates the predictability of threats to marine biodiversity

Anthropogenic climate change is driving rapid changes in marine ecosystems across the global ocean. The spatiotemporal footprints of other anthropogenic threats, such as infrastructure development, shipping, and fisheries, will also inevitably shift under climate change, but we find that these shifts are not yet accounted for in most projections of climate futures in marine systems. We summarise what is known about threat-shifting in response to climate change, and identify sources of predictability that have implications for ecological forecasting. We recommend that, where possible, the dynamics of anthropogenic threats are accounted for in nowcasts, forecasts, and projections designed for spatial management and conservation planning, and highlight key themes for future research into threat dynamics in a changing ocean.

Pronghorn movements and mortality during extreme weather highlight the critical importance of connectivity

Human disturbance and development are fragmenting landscapes, limiting the ability of organisms to freely move to meet their survival and reproductive needs. Simultaneously, extreme weather events-such as tropical cyclones, megafires, and heatwaves-pose a major threat to survival and may require animals to rapidly move to escape. As the dual forces of landscape fragmentation and extreme weather events continue to intensify, researchers urgently need to develop an understanding of the synergistic effects of these forces on animal mobility and survival. Here, we present a case study on pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) that undertook extraordinary long-distance movements (up to 399 km) to escape a once-in-two-decades extreme snowstorm in the Red Desert, WY, USA. Although Wyoming is a seemingly underdeveloped landscape, high fence density and two major highways in the region exposed pronghorn to novel barriers that delayed movement, restricted habitat access, and ultimately hindered their ability to escape extreme snow accumulation. The synergistic effects of movement barriers and extreme weather increased mortality rates by 3.7-fold such that over 50% of GPS-monitored pronghorn perished. These findings highlight the critical need to study escape movements and prioritize connectivity planning to curtail mass mortality events and ensure population persistence.

Salinity drives the distribution of a top-order predator, the tiger shark (Galeocerdo cuvier), in an inverse estuary

Understanding how dynamic environmental processes influence the distributions of top-order predators is fundamental to assess top-down effects on ecosystems. Tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) are a large top-predator that can trigger trophic cascades and structure communities. However, the dynamic physical processes that influence the distributions of these animals in coastal systems are largely unknown. Here, we assess the environmental processes influencing tiger shark movements in the inverse estuary of Shark Bay, Western Australia, a shallow coastal embayment with salinities consistently above that of the adjacent ocean. We applied Bayesian generalized linear mixed-effects models to generate dynamic predictions of suitable habitat for tiger sharks in this region. These habitats were associated with dense and shallow seagrass beds and largely reflected the spatial variability of hypersaline water (< 40). Under future climate scenarios, coastal areas worldwide are predicted to experience inverse estuarine conditions. We anticipate that the physical processes that influence tiger shark distributions in this study will become applicable to numerous other species of gill-breathing fauna in coastal ecosystems across the globe.

Simulating Habitat Suitability Changes of Threadfin Porgy (Evynnis cardinalis) in the Northern South China Sea Using Ensemble Models Under Medium-to-Long-Term Future Climate Scenarios

The impact of global warming on fish distribution is a key factor in fishery management and sustainable development. However, limited knowledge exists regarding the influence of environmental factors on the distribution of Evynnis cardinalis under climate change. This study addresses this gap by predicting the species distribution under current conditions and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) using five individual models and four ensemble models. The results demonstrate that the ensemble models outperform the single models, with majority voting (EMca) achieving the highest accuracy (ROC = 0.97, TSS = 0.85). Bathymetry (BM) and the sea surface height (SSH) are the primary factors influencing the distribution. The predictions indicate that the currently suitable habitats of E. cardinalis are primarily located in the Beibu Gulf region of the northern South China Sea. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas are expected to expand to higher latitudes and deeper waters, though highly suitable habitats in the western Guangdong coastal waters, western Beibu Gulf, and southwestern offshore waters of Hainan Island will significantly decrease.

Future climate-driven habitat loss and range shift of the Critically Endangered whitefin swellshark (Cephaloscyllium albipinnum)

Climate change is driving many species to shift their geographical ranges poleward to maintain their environmental niche. However, for endemic species with restricted ranges, like the Critically Endangered whitefin swellshark (Cephaloscyllium albipinnum), endemic to southeastern Australia, such dispersal may be limited. Nevertheless, there is a poor understanding of how C. albipinnum might spatially adjust its distribution in response to climate change or whether suitable refugia exist for this species in the future. Therefore, to address this gap, this study utilised maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modelling to determine the potential distribution of suitable habitat for C. albipinnum under present-day (2010-2020) climate conditions and for future conditions, under six shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) for the middle (2040-2050) and end (2090-2100) of the century. Under present-day conditions (2010-2020), our model predicted a core distribution of potentially suitable habitat for C. albipinnum within the Great Australian Bight (GAB), with benthic primary productivity and surface ocean temperature identified as key distribution drivers. However, under all SSP scenarios, future projections indicated an expected range shift of at least 72 km, up to 1,087 km in an east-southeast direction towards Tasmania (TAS). In all future climate scenarios (except SSP1-1.9 by 2100), suitable habitat is expected to decline, especially in the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), which anticipates a loss of over 70% of suitable habitat. Consequently, all future climate scenarios (except SSP1-1.9 by 2100) projected a decrease in suitable habitat within a currently designated marine protected area (MPA). These losses ranged from 0.6% under SSP1-1.9 by 2050 to a substantial 89.7% loss in coverage under SSP5-8.5 by 2100, leaving just 2.5% of suitable habitat remaining within MPAs. With C. albipinnum already facing a high risk of extinction, these findings underscore its vulnerability to future climate change. Our results highlight the urgency of implementing adaptive conservation measures and management strategies that consider the impacts of climate change on this species.

Climate change drives fish communities: Changing multiple facets of fish biodiversity in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Global marine biodiversity is experiencing significant alterations due to climate change. Incorporating phylogenetic and functional diversity may provide novel insights into these impacts. This study used an ensemble model approach (random forest and boosted regression tree), to predict the habitat distribution of 47 fish species in the Northwestern Pacific under contemporary (2000-2014) and future scenarios (2040-2050, 2090-2100). We first examined the relationship between eleven functional traits and habitat changes, predicting the spatial distribution of functional traits within fish communities. A significant correlation was observed between temperature preference and habitat changes, highlighting the vulnerability of cold-water species and potential advantages for warm-water species in the future. Moreover, fish communities exhibited a spatial gradient distribution with southern regions characterized by shorter-lived and earlier maturity, contrasting with longer-lived and later maturity species in the north. Secondly, to assess the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity, we explored the taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity under contemporary and future scenarios, revealing higher indices in the East China Sea (ECS) and the coastal sea of Japan, with the Taiwan Strait emerging as a contemporary biodiversity hotspot. In future scenarios, the three biodiversity indices would decline in the Yellow Sea and ECS, but increase in the sea beyond the continental shelf, coastal sea of Hokkaido, and Sea of Okhotsk. Lastly, we explored processes and mechanisms in the change of community composition. By quantifying β-diversity, we identified species loss (nestedness) as the primary driver of fish community change by 2040-2050, with species replacement (turnover) predicted to become dominant in the far future. Our results explore the potential changes in multiple facets of fish biodiversity, providing crucial insights for policymakers aiming to protect fish resources and biodiversity.

Climate-driven global redistribution of an ocean giant predicts increased threat from shipping

Climate change is shifting animal distributions. However, the extent to which future global habitats of threatened marine megafauna will overlap existing human threats remains unresolved. Here we use global climate models and habitat suitability estimated from long-term satellite-tracking data of the world's largest fish, the whale shark, to show that redistributions of present-day habitats are projected to increase the species' co-occurrence with global shipping. Our model projects core habitat area losses of >50% within some national waters by 2100, with geographic shifts of over 1,000 km (∼12 km yr-1). Greater habitat suitability is predicted in current range-edge areas, increasing the co-occurrence of sharks with large ships. This future increase was ∼15,000 times greater under high emissions compared with a sustainable development scenario. Results demonstrate that climate-induced global species redistributions that increase exposure to direct sources of mortality are possible, emphasizing the need for quantitative climate-threat predictions in conservation assessments of endangered marine megafauna.

Long-term effects of climate change on juvenile bull shark migratory patterns

Seasonal variability in environmental conditions is a strong determinant of animal migrations, but warming temperatures associated with climate change are anticipated to alter this phenomenon with unknown consequences. We used a 40-year fishery-independent survey to assess how a changing climate has altered the migration timing, duration and first-year survival of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas). From 1982 to 2021, estuaries in the western Gulf of Mexico (Texas) experienced a mean increase of 1.55°C in autumn water temperatures, and delays in autumn cold fronts by ca. 0.5 days per year. Bull shark migrations in more northern estuaries concomitantly changed, with departures 25-36 days later in 2021 than in 1982. Later, migrations resulted in reduced overwintering durations by up to 81 days, and the relative abundance of post-overwintering age 0-1 sharks increased by >50% during the 40-year study period. Yet, reductions in prey availability were the most influential factor delaying migrations. Juvenile sharks remained in natal estuaries longer when prey were less abundant. Long-term declines in prey reportedly occurred due to reduced spawning success associated with climate change based on published reports. Consequently, warming waters likely enabled and indirectly caused the observed changes in shark migratory behaviour. As water temperatures continue to rise, bull sharks in the north-western Gulf of Mexico could forgo their winter migrations in the next 50-100 years based on current trends and physiological limits, thereby altering their ecological roles in estuarine ecosystems and recruitment into the adult population. It is unclear if estuarine food webs will be able to support changing residency patterns as climate change affects the spawning success of forage species. We expect these trends are not unique to the western Gulf of Mexico or bull sharks, and migratory patterns of predators in subtropical latitudes are similarly changing at a global scale.

The vulnerability of sharks, skates, and rays to ocean deoxygenation: Physiological mechanisms, behavioral responses, and ecological impacts

Levels of dissolved oxygen in open ocean and coastal waters are decreasing (ocean deoxygenation), with poorly understood effects on marine megafauna. All of the more than 1000 species of elasmobranchs (sharks, skates, and rays) are obligate water breathers, with a variety of life-history strategies and oxygen requirements. This review demonstrates that although many elasmobranchs typically avoid hypoxic water, they also appear capable of withstanding mild to moderate hypoxia with changes in activity, ventilatory responses, alterations to circulatory and hematological parameters, and morphological alterations to gill structures. However, such strategies may be insufficient to withstand severe, progressive, or prolonged hypoxia or anoxia where anaerobic metabolic pathways may be used for limited periods. As water temperatures increase with climate warming, ectothermic elasmobranchs will exhibit elevated metabolic rates and are likely to be less able to tolerate the effects of even mild hypoxia associated with deoxygenation. As a result, sustained hypoxic conditions in warmer coastal or surface-pelagic waters are likely to lead to shifts in elasmobranch distributions. Mass mortalities of elasmobranchs linked directly to deoxygenation have only rarely been observed but are likely underreported. One key concern is how reductions in habitat volume as a result of expanding hypoxia resulting from deoxygenation will influence interactions between elasmobranchs and industrial fisheries. Catch per unit of effort of threatened pelagic sharks by longline fisheries, for instance, has been shown to be higher above oxygen minimum zones compared to adjacent, normoxic regions, and attributed to vertical habitat compression of sharks overlapping with increased fishing effort. How a compound stressor such as marine heatwaves alters vulnerability to deoxygenation remains an open question. With over a third of elasmobranch species listed as endangered, a priority for conservation and management now lies in understanding and mitigating ocean deoxygenation effects in addition to population declines already occurring from overfishing.

Warming waters lead to increased habitat suitability for juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas)

Coastal ecosystems are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and other stressors, including urbanization and overfishing. Consequently, distributions of coastal fish have begun to change, particularly in response to increasing temperatures linked to climate change. However, few studies have evaluated how natural and anthropogenic disturbances can alter species distributions in conjunction with geophysical habitat alterations, such as changes to land use and land cover (LU/LC). Here, we examine the spatiotemporal changes in the distribution of juvenile bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) using a multi-decadal fishery-independent survey of coastal Alabama. Using a boosted regression tree (BRT) modeling framework, we assess the covariance of environmental conditions (sea surface temperature, depth, salinity, dissolved oxygen, riverine discharge, Chl-a) as well as historic changes to LU/LC to the distribution of bull sharks. Species distribution models resultant from BRTs for early (2003-2005) and recent (2018-2020) monitoring periods indicated a mean increase in habitat suitability (i.e., probability of capture) for juvenile bull sharks from 0.028 to 0.082, concomitant with substantial increases in mean annual temperature (0.058°C/yr), Chl-a (2.32 mg/m3), and urbanization (increased LU/LC) since 2000. These results align with observed five-fold increases in the relative abundance of juvenile bull sharks across the study period and demonstrate the impacts of changing environmental conditions on their distribution and relative abundance. As climate change persists, coastal communities will continue to change, altering the structure of ecological communities and the success of nearshore fisheries.

Emerging human-shark conflicts in the New York Bight: A call for expansive science and management

Recent spikes in interactions between humans and sharks in the New York Bight have sparked widespread reporting of possible causalities, many of which lack empirical support. Here we comment on the current state of knowledge regarding shark biology and management in New York waters emphasizing that the possible drivers of increased human-shark interactions are confounded by a lack of historical monitoring data. We outline several key research avenues that should be considered to ensure the safe and sustainable coexistence of humans, sharks, and their prey, in an era of accelerated environmental change.

Linking vertical movements of large pelagic predators with distribution patterns of biomass in the open ocean

Many predator species make regular excursions from near-surface waters to the twilight (200 to 1,000 m) and midnight (1,000 to 3,000 m) zones of the deep pelagic ocean. While the occurrence of significant vertical movements into the deep ocean has evolved independently across taxonomic groups, the functional role(s) and ecological significance of these movements remain poorly understood. Here, we integrate results from satellite tagging efforts with model predictions of deep prey layers in the North Atlantic Ocean to determine whether prey distributions are correlated with vertical habitat use across 12 species of predators. Using 3D movement data for 344 individuals who traversed nearly 1.5 million km of pelagic ocean in [Formula: see text]42,000 d, we found that nearly every tagged predator frequented the twilight zone and many made regular trips to the midnight zone. Using a predictive model, we found clear alignment of predator depth use with the expected location of deep pelagic prey for at least half of the predator species. We compared high-resolution predator data with shipboard acoustics and selected representative matches that highlight the opportunities and challenges in the analysis and synthesis of these data. While not all observed behavior was consistent with estimated prey availability at depth, our results suggest that deep pelagic biomass likely has high ecological value for a suite of commercially important predators in the open ocean. Careful consideration of the disruption to ecosystem services provided by pelagic food webs is needed before the potential costs and benefits of proceeding with extractive activities in the deep ocean can be evaluated.