Interannual variability in the North Atlantic Ocean carbon sink

Uncovering the world's largest carbon sink-a profile of ocean carbon sinks research

As the world's largest carbon sink, the oceans are essential to achieving the 1.5 °C target. Marine ecosystems play a crucial role in the "sink enhancement" process. A deeper comprehension of research trends, hotspots, and the boundaries of ocean carbon sinks is necessary for a more effective response to climate change. To this end, academic literature in the field of ocean carbon sinks was investigated and analyzed using the core database of the Web of Science. The results show that (1) The ocean carbon sink is a global study. The number of literatures in the field of ocean carbon sinks is growing, and the USA and China are the main leaders, with the USA accounting for 31.19% of the global publications and China accounting for 26.57% of the global publications, and the environmental science discipline is the most popular in this field. (2) Keyword burst detection shows that the keywords "sink, sensitivity, land, dynamics, and seagrass" appear earliest and have high burst intensity, which are the hot spots of research in this field; the keyword clustering shows that the global ocean carbon sinks research mainly focuses on three themes: (i) carbon cycle and climate change; (ii) carbon sinks estimation models and techniques; and (iii) carbon sinks capacity and ocean biological carbon sequestration in different seas. Finally, targeted research recommendations are proposed to further match the ocean carbon sink research.

Research ReportDiurnal global ocean surface pCO2 and air-sea CO2 flux reconstructed from spaceborne LiDAR data

The ocean absorbs a significant amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, helping regulate Earth's climate. However, our knowledge of ocean CO2 sink levels remains limited. This research focused on assessing daily changes in ocean CO2 sink levels and air-sea CO2 exchange, using a new technique. We used LiDAR technology, which provides continuous measurements during day and night, to estimate global ocean CO2 absorption over 23 years. Our model successfully reproduced sea surface partial pressure of CO2 data. The results suggest the total amount of CO2 absorbed by oceans is higher at night than during the day. This difference arises from a combination of factors like temperatures, winds, photosynthesis, and respiration. Understanding these daily fluctuations can improve predictions of ocean CO2 uptake. It may also help explain why current carbon budget calculations are not fully balanced-an issue scientists have grappled with. Overall, this pioneering study highlights the value of LiDAR's unique day-night ocean data coverage. The findings advance knowledge of ocean carbon cycles and their role in climate regulation. They underscore the need to incorporate day-night variability when assessing the ocean's carbon sink capacity.

Response of phytoplankton functional types to Hurricane Fabian (2003) in the Sargasso Sea

Understanding how tropical cyclones affect phytoplankton communities is important for studies on ecological variability. Most studies assessing the post-storm phytoplankton response rely on satellite observations of chlorophyll a concentration, which inform on the ocean surface conditions and the whole phytoplankton community. In this work, we assess the potential of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology marine ecosystem model to account for the response of individual phytoplankton functional types (PFTs, coccolithophores, diatoms, diazotrophs, mixotrophic dinoflagellates, picoeukaryotes, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus) in the euphotic zone to the passage of Hurricane Fabian (2003) across the tropical and subtropical Sargasso Sea. Fabian induced a significant mean concentration increase (t-test, p < 0.05) of all PFTs in the tropical waters (except for Prochlorococcus), which was driven by the mean nutrient concentration increase and by a limited zooplankton grazing pressure. More specifically, the post-storm nutrient enrichment increased the contribution of fast-growing PFTs (e.g. diatoms and coccolithophores) to the total phytoplankton concentration and decreased the contribution of slow-growing dominant groups (e.g. picoeukaryotes, Prochlorococcus and Synechococcus), which lead to a significant increase (t-test, p < 0.05) of the Shannon diversity index values. Overall, the model captured the causal relationship between nutrient and PFT concentration increases in the tropical waters, although it only reproduced the most pronounced PFT responses such as those in the deep euphotic zone. In contrast, the model did not capture the oceanic perturbations induced by Fabian as observed in satellite imagery in the subtropical waters, probably due to its limited performance in this complex oceanographic area.

Incorporating marine particulate carbon into machine learning for accurate estimation of coastal chlorophyll-a

Accurate predictions of coastal ocean chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations are necessary for dynamic water quality monitoring, with eutrophication as a critical factor. Prior studies that used the driven-data method have typically overlooked the relationship between Chl-a and marine particulate carbon. To address this gap, marine particulate carbon was incorporated into machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) models to estimate Chl-a concentrations in the Yang Jiang coastal ocean of China. Incorporating particulate organic carbon (POC) and particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) as predictors can lead to successful Chl-a estimation. The Gaussian process regression (GPR) model significantly outperforming the DL model in terms of stability and robustness. A lower POC/Chl-a ratio was observed in coastal areas, in contrast to the higher ratios detected in the southern regions of the study area. This study highlights the efficacy of the GPR model for estimating Chl-a and the importance of considering POC in modeling Chl-a concentrations.

Compound marine heatwaves and ocean acidity extremes

Compound MHW-OAX events, during which marine heatwaves (MHWs) co-occur with ocean acidity extreme (OAX) events, can have larger impacts on marine ecosystems than the individual extremes. Using monthly open-ocean observations over the period 1982–2019, we show that globally 1.8 in 100 months (or about one out of five present-day MHW months) are compound MHW-OAX event months under a present-day baseline, almost twice as many as expected for 90th percentile extreme event exceedances if MHWs and OAX events were statistically independent. Compound MHW-OAX events are most likely in the subtropics (2.7 in 100 months; 10°−40° latitude) and less likely in the equatorial Pacific and the mid-to-high latitudes (0.7 in 100 months; >40° latitude). The likelihood pattern results from opposing effects of temperature and dissolved inorganic carbon on [H⁺]. The likelihood is higher where the positive effect on [H⁺] from increased temperatures during MHWs outweighs the negative effect on [H⁺] from co-occurring decreases in dissolved inorganic carbon. Daily model output from a large-ensemble simulation of an Earth system model is analyzed to assess changes in the MHW-OAX likelihood under climate change. The projected long-term mean warming and acidification trends have the largest effect on the number of MHW-OAX days per year, increasing it from 12 to 265 days per year at 2 °C global warming relative to a fixed pre-industrial baseline. Even when long-term trends are removed, an increase in [H⁺] variability leads to a 60% increase in the number of MHW-OAX days under 2 °C global warming. These projected increases may cause severe impacts on marine ecosystems.

Compound extreme events in two or more oceanic ecosystem stressors are increasingly considered as a major concern for marine life. Here the authors present a first global analysis on compound marine heatwave and ocean acidity extreme events, identifying hotspots, drivers, and projecting future changes.

Coral calcification responses to the North Atlantic Oscillation and coral bleaching in Bermuda

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has been hypothesized to drive interannual variability in Bermudan coral extension rates and reef-scale calcification through the provisioning of nutritional pulses associated with negative NAO winters. However, the direct influence of the NAO on Bermudan coral calcification rates remains to be determined and may vary between species and reef sites owing to implicit differences in coral life history strategies and environmental gradients across the Bermuda reef platform. In this study, we investigated the connection between negative NAO winters and Bermudan Diploria labyrinthiformis, Pseudodiploria strigosa, and Orbicella franksi coral calcification rates across rim reef, lagoon, and nearshore reef sites. Linear mixed effects modeling detected an inverse correlation between D. labyrinthiformis calcification rates and the winter NAO index, with higher rates associated with increasingly negative NAO winters. Conversely, there were no detectable correlations between P. strigosa or O. franksi calcification rates and the winter NAO index suggesting that coral calcification responses associated with negative NAO winters could be species-specific. The correlation between coral calcification rates and winter NAO index was significantly more negative at the outer rim of the reef (Hog Reef) compared to a nearshore reef site (Whalebone Bay), possibly indicating differential influence of the NAO as a function of the distance from the reef edge. Furthermore, a negative calcification anomaly was observed in 100% of D. labyrinthiformis cores in association with the 1988 coral bleaching event with a subsequent positive calcification anomaly in 1989 indicating a post-bleaching recovery in calcification rates. These results highlight the importance of assessing variable interannual coral calcification responses between species and across inshore-offshore gradients to interannual atmospheric modes such as the NAO, thermal stress events, and potential interactions between ocean warming and availability of coral nutrition to improve projections for future coral calcification rates under climate change.

Impact of Lytic Phages on Phosphorus- vs. Nitrogen-Limited Marine Microbes

Lytic viruses kill almost 20% of marine bacteria every day, re-routing nutrients away from the higher trophic levels of the marine food web and back in the microbial loop. Importantly, the effect of this inflow of key elements on the ecosystem depends on the nutrient requirements of bacteria as well as on the elemental composition of the viruses that infect them. Therefore, the influence of viruses on the ecosystem could vary depending on which nutrient is limiting. In this paper, we considered an existing multitrophic model (nutrient, bacteria, zooplankton, and viruses) that accounts for nitrogen limitation, and developed a phosphorus-limited version to assess whether the limiting nutrient alters the role of viruses in the ecosystem. For both versions, we evaluated the stationary state of the system with and without viruses. In agreement with existing results, nutrient release increased with viruses for nitrogen–limited systems, while zooplankton abundance and export to higher trophic levels decreased. We found this to be true also for phosphorus-limited systems, although nutrient release increased less than in nitrogen-limited systems. The latter supports a nutrient-specific response of the ecosystem to viruses. Bacterial concentration decreased in the phosphorus-limited system but increased in most nitrogen-limited cases due to a switch from mostly bottom-up to entirely top-down control by viruses. Our results also show that viral concentration is best predicted by a power-law of bacterial concentration with exponent different from 1. Finally, we found a positive correlation between carbon export and viruses regardless of the limiting nutrient, which led us to suggest viral abundance as a predictor of carbon sink.

Natural Variability and Anthropogenic Trends in the Ocean Carbon Sink

Since preindustrial times, the ocean has removed from the atmosphere 41% of the carbon emitted by human industrial activities. Despite significant uncertainties, the balance of evidence indicates that the globally integrated rate of ocean carbon uptake is increasing in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the equatorial Pacific dominates interannual variability of the globally integrated sink. Modes of climate variability in high latitudes are correlated with variability in regional carbon sinks, but mechanistic understanding is incomplete. Regional sink variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that the growing oceanic sink cannot yet be directly detected from available surface data. Accurate and precise shipboard observations need to be continued and increasingly complemented with autonomous observations. These data, together with a variety of mechanistic and diagnostic models, are needed for better understanding, long-term monitoring, and future projections of this critical climate regulation service.

Shifts in coral reef biogeochemistry and resulting acidification linked to offshore productivity

Oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) has acidified open-ocean surface waters by 0.1 pH units since preindustrial times. Despite unequivocal evidence of ocean acidification (OA) via open-ocean measurements for the past several decades, it has yet to be documented in near-shore and coral reef environments. A lack of long-term measurements from these environments restricts our understanding of the natural variability and controls of seawater CO2-carbonate chemistry and biogeochemistry, which is essential to make accurate predictions on the effects of future OA on coral reefs. Here, in a 5-y study of the Bermuda coral reef, we show evidence that variations in reef biogeochemical processes drive interannual changes in seawater pH and Ωaragonite that are partly controlled by offshore processes. Rapid acidification events driven by shifts toward increasing net calcification and net heterotrophy were observed during the summers of 2010 and 2011, with the frequency and extent of such events corresponding to increased offshore productivity. These events also coincided with a negative winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, which historically has been associated with extensive offshore mixing and greater primary productivity at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. Our results reveal that coral reefs undergo natural interannual events of rapid acidification due to shifts in reef biogeochemical processes that may be linked to offshore productivity and ultimately controlled by larger-scale climatic and oceanographic processes.

Mixed layer depth trends in the Bay of Biscay over the period 1975-2010

Wintertime trends in mixed layer depth (MLD) were calculated in the Bay of Biscay over the period 1975-2010 using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) package. The reliability of the SODA database was confirmed correlating its results with those obtained from the experimental Argo database over the period 2003-2010. An iso-thermal layer depth (TLD) and an iso-pycnal layer depth (PLD) were defined using the threshold difference method with ΔT = 0.5°C and Δσθ = 0.125 kg/m3. Wintertime trends of the MLD were calculated using winter extended (December-March) anomalies and annual maxima. Trends calculated for the whole Bay of Biscay using both parameters (TLD and PLD) showed to be dependent on the area. Thus, MLD became deeper in the southeastern corner and shallower in the rest of the area. Air temperature was shown to play a key role in regulating the different spatial behavior of the MLD. Negative air temperature trends localized in the southeastern corner coincide with MLD deepening in this area, while, positive air temperature trends are associated to MLD shoaling in the rest of the bay. Additionally, the temperature trend calculated along the first 700 m of the water column is in good agreement with the different spatial behavior revealed for the MLD trend.

Anthropogenic changes to seawater buffer capacity combined with natural reef metabolism induce extreme future coral reef CO2 conditions

Ocean acidification, via an anthropogenic increase in seawater carbon dioxide (CO2 ), is potentially a major threat to coral reefs and other marine ecosystems. However, our understanding of how natural short-term diurnal CO2 variability in coral reefs influences longer term anthropogenic ocean acidification remains unclear. Here, we combine observed natural carbonate chemistry variability with future carbonate chemistry predictions for a coral reef flat in the Great Barrier Reef based on the RCP8.5 CO2 emissions scenario. Rather than observing a linear increase in reef flat partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2 ) in concert with rising atmospheric concentrations, the inclusion of in situ diurnal variability results in a highly nonlinear threefold amplification of the pCO2 signal by the end of the century. This significant nonlinear amplification of diurnal pCO2 variability occurs as a result of combining natural diurnal biological CO2 metabolism with long-term decreases in seawater buffer capacity, which occurs via increasing anthropogenic CO2 absorption by the ocean. Under the same benthic community composition, the amplification in the variability in pCO2 is likely to lead to exposure to mean maximum daily pCO2 levels of ca. 2100 μatm, with corrosive conditions with respect to aragonite by end-century at our study site. Minimum pCO2 levels will become lower relative to the mean offshore value (ca. threefold increase in the difference between offshore and minimum reef flat pCO2 ) by end-century, leading to a further increase in the pCO2 range that organisms are exposed to. The biological consequences of short-term exposure to these extreme CO2 conditions, coupled with elevated long-term mean CO2 conditions are currently unknown and future laboratory experiments will need to incorporate natural variability to test this. The amplification of pCO2 that we describe here is not unique to our study location, but will occur in all shallow coastal environments where high biological productivity drives large natural variability in carbonate chemistry.

Anthropogenic modification of the oceans

Human activities are altering the ocean in many different ways. The surface ocean is warming and, as a result, it is becoming more stratified and sea level is rising. There is no clear evidence yet of a slowing in ocean circulation, although this is predicted for the future. As anthropogenic CO(2) permeates into the ocean, it is making sea water more acidic, to the detriment of surface corals and probably many other calcifiers. Once acidification reaches the deep ocean, it will become more corrosive to CaCO(3), leading to a considerable reduction in the amount of CaCO(3) accumulating on the deep seafloor. There will be a several thousand-year-long interruption to CaCO(3) sedimentation at many points on the seafloor. A curious feedback in the ocean, carbonate compensation, makes it more likely that global warming and sea-level rise will continue for many millennia after CO(2) emissions cease.

Warming effects on marine microbial food web processes: how far can we go when it comes to predictions?

Previsions of a warmer ocean as a consequence of climatic change point to a 2-6 degrees C temperature rise during this century in surface oceanic waters. Heterotrophic bacteria occupy the central position of the marine microbial food web, and their metabolic activity and interactions with other compartments within the web are regulated by temperature. In particular, key ecosystem processes like bacterial production (BP), respiration (BR), growth efficiency and bacterial-grazer trophic interactions are likely to change in a warmer ocean. Different approaches can be used to predict these changes. Here we combine evidence of the effects of temperature on these processes and interactions coming from laboratory experiments, space-for-time substitutions, long-term data from microbial observatories and theoretical predictions. Some of the evidence we gathered shows opposite trends to warming depending on the spatio-temporal scale of observation, and the complexity of the system under study. In particular, we show that warming (i) increases BR, (ii) increases bacterial losses to their grazers, and thus bacterial-grazer biomass flux within the microbial food web, (iii) increases BP if enough resources are available (as labile organic matter derived from phytoplankton excretion or lysis), and (iv) increases bacterial losses to grazing at lower rates than BP, and hence decreasing the proportion of production removed by grazers. As a consequence, bacterial abundance would also increase and reinforce the already dominant role of microbes in the carbon cycle of a warmer ocean.

Contributions of long-term research and time-series observations to marine ecology and biogeochemistry

Time-series observations form a critical element of oceanography. New interdisciplinary efforts launched in the past two decades complement the few earlier, longer-running time series to build a better, though still poorly resolved, picture of lower-frequency ocean variability, the climate processes that drive variability, and the implications for food web dynamics, carbon storage, and climate feedbacks. Time series also enlarge our understanding of ecological processes and are integral for improving models of physical-biogeochemical-ecological ocean dynamics. The major time-series observatories go well beyond simple monitoring of core ocean properties, although that important activity forms the critical center of all time-series efforts. Modern ocean time series have major process and experimental components, entrain ancillary programs, and have integrated modeling programs for deriving a better understanding of the observations and the changing, three-dimensional ocean in which the observatories are embedded.

Africa and the global carbon cycle

The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics. With low fossil emissions and productivity that largely compensates respiration, land conversion is Africa's primary net carbon release, much of it through burning of forests. Savanna fire emissions, though large, represent a short-term source that is offset by ensuing regrowth. While current data suggest a near zero decadal-scale carbon balance, interannual climate fluctuations (especially drought) induce sizeable variability in net ecosystem productivity and savanna fire emissions such that Africa is a major source of interannual variability in global atmospheric CO2. Considering the continent's sizeable carbon stocks, their seemingly high vulnerability to anticipated climate and land use change, as well as growing populations and industrialization, Africa's carbon emissions and their interannual variability are likely to undergo substantial increases through the 21st century.

The effect of advection on the nutrient reservoir in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre

Though critically important in sustaining the ocean's biological pump, the cycling of nutrients in the subtropical gyres is poorly understood. The supply of nutrients to the sunlit surface layer of the ocean has traditionally been attributed solely to vertical processes. However, horizontal advection may also be important in establishing the availability of nutrients. Here we show that the production and advection of North Atlantic Subtropical Mode Water introduces spatial and temporal variability in the subsurface nutrient reservoir beneath the North Atlantic subtropical gyre. As the mode water is formed, its nutrients are depleted by biological utilization. When the depleted water mass is exported to the gyre, it injects a wedge of low-nutrient water into the upper layers of the ocean. Contrary to intuition, cold winters that promote deep convective mixing and vigorous mode water formation may diminish downstream primary productivity by altering the subsurface delivery of nutrients.

Climate-driven changes to the atmospheric CO2 sink in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean

The oceans represent a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variability in the strength of this sink occurs on interannual timescales, as a result of regional and basin-scale changes in the physical and biological parameters that control the flux of this greenhouse gas into and out of the surface mixed layer. Here we analyse a 13-year time series of oceanic carbon dioxide measurements from station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii, and find a significant decrease in the strength of the carbon dioxide sink over the period 1989-2001. We show that much of this reduction in sink strength can be attributed to an increase in the partial pressure of surface ocean carbon dioxide caused by excess evaporation and the accompanying concentration of solutes in the water mass. Our results suggest that carbon dioxide uptake by ocean waters can be strongly influenced by changes in regional precipitation and evaporation patterns brought on by climate variability.