Induced earthquakes. Sharp increase in central Oklahoma seismicity since 2008 induced by massive wastewater injection

Stochastic modeling of injection induced seismicity based on the continuous time random walk model

The spatiotemporal evolution of earthquakes induced by fluid injections into the subsurface can be erratic owing to the complexity of the physical process. To effectively mitigate the associated hazard and to draft appropriate regulatory strategies, a detailed understanding of how induced seismicity may evolve is needed. In this work, we build on the well-established continuous-time random walk (CTRW) theory to develop a purely stochastic framework that can delineate the essential characteristics of this process. We use data from the 2003 and 2012 hydraulic stimulations in the Cooper Basin geothermal field that induced thousands of microearthquakes to test and demonstrate the applicability of the model. Induced seismicity in the Cooper Basin shows all the characteristics of subdiffusion, as indicated by the fractional order power-law growth of the mean square displacement with time and broad waiting-time distributions with algebraic tails. We further use an appropriate master equation and the time-fractional diffusion equation to map the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity. The results show good agreement between the model and the data regarding the peak earthquake concentration close to the two injection wells and the stretched exponential relaxation of seismicity with distance, suggesting that the CTRW model can be efficiently incorporated into induced seismicity forecasting.

Surface Deformation and Seismicity Linked to Fluid Injection in the Raton Basin

It is suggested that in addition to seismicity deep fluid injection may cause surface uplift and subsidence in oil and gas-producing regions. This study uses the Raton Basin as an example to investigate the hydromechanical processes of surface uplift and subsidence during wastewater injection. The Raton Basin, in southern central Colorado and northern central New Mexico, has experienced wastewater injection related to coalbed methane and gas production starting in 1994. In this study, we estimate the extent and magnitude of total vertical deformation in the Raton Basin from 1994 to 2020 and incremental deformation between the years 2017 to 2020. Results indicate a modeled uplift as much as 15 cm occurring between 1994 and 2020. Between 2017 and 2020, up to 3 cm of uplift occurred, largely near the northwestern injection wells. Most modeled uplift between 1994 and 2020 occurred near the southern wells, where the greatest cumulative volume of wastewater was injected. However, modeled subsidence occurred around the southern and eastern wells between 2017 and 2020, after the rate of injection decreased. Modeling indicates that while the magnitude of modeled uplift corresponds to cumulative injection volume and maximum rate in the long-term, short-term incremental deformation (uplift or subsidence) is controlled by changes in the rate of injection. The number of yearly earthquake events follows periods of rapid modeled uplifting throughout the Basin, suggesting that measurable surface deformation may be caused by the same injection-induced pore pressure perturbations that initiate seismicity.

Tremor signals during fluid injection are generated by fault slip

Seismic tremor signals, also known as long-period, long-duration signals, have been reported in several locations where fluid injection for enhanced oil and gas exploration is taking place. However, the origin of these signals remains poorly constrained. We studied seismic tremor signals in Wellington Field, Kansas, using a seismic array during a carbon dioxide injection program. We show that these signals are generated below the surface during the time of carbon dioxide injection. They have a distinct spectral signature, similar to those observed in glacial and volcanic environments. The tremor sources are located near the injection site and aligned with preexisting faults. Modeling results imply that such tremors are generated by frictional slip on fault. These observations may reveal an important deformation mode, which is useful for studying associated stress, seismicity, and triggering, as well as for tracking fault activities during injection operations of all fluids, including supercritical carbon dioxide.

Seismic magnitude clustering is prevalent in field and laboratory catalogs

Clustering of earthquake magnitudes is still actively debated, compared to well-established spatial and temporal clustering. Magnitude clustering is not currently implemented in earthquake forecasting but would be important if larger magnitude events are more likely to be followed by similar sized events. Here we show statistically significant magnitude clustering present in many different field and laboratory catalogs at a wide range of spatial scales (mm to 1000 km). It is universal in field catalogs across fault types and tectonic/induced settings, while laboratory results are unaffected by loading protocol or rock types and show temporal stability. The absence of clustering can be imposed by a global tensile stress, although clustering still occurs when isolating to triggered event pairs or spatial patches where shear stress dominates. Magnitude clustering is most prominent at short time and distance scales and modeling indicates >20% repeating magnitudes in some cases, implying it can help to narrow physical mechanisms for seismogenesis.

Physics-informed machine learning with differentiable programming for heterogeneous underground reservoir pressure management

Avoiding over-pressurization in subsurface reservoirs is critical for applications like CO[Formula: see text] sequestration and wastewater injection. Managing the pressures by controlling injection/extraction are challenging because of complex heterogeneity in the subsurface. The heterogeneity typically requires high-fidelity physics-based models to make predictions on CO[Formula: see text] fate. Furthermore, characterizing the heterogeneity accurately is fraught with parametric uncertainty. Accounting for both, heterogeneity and uncertainty, makes this a computationally-intensive problem challenging for current reservoir simulators. To tackle this, we use differentiable programming with a full-physics model and machine learning to determine the fluid extraction rates that prevent over-pressurization at critical reservoir locations. We use DPFEHM framework, which has trustworthy physics based on the standard two-point flux finite volume discretization and is also automatically differentiable like machine learning models. Our physics-informed machine learning framework uses convolutional neural networks to learn an appropriate extraction rate based on the permeability field. We also perform a hyperparameter search to improve the model's accuracy. Training and testing scenarios are executed to evaluate the feasibility of using physics-informed machine learning to manage reservoir pressures. We constructed and tested a sufficiently accurate simulator that is 400 000 times faster than the underlying physics-based simulator, allowing for near real-time analysis and robust uncertainty quantification.

Analysis of Regulatory Framework for Produced Water Management and Reuse in Major Oil- and Gas-Producing Regions in the United States

The rapid development of unconventional oil and gas (O&G) extraction around the world produces a significant amount of wastewater that requires appropriate management and disposal. Produced water (PW) is primarily disposed of through saltwater disposal wells, and other reuse/disposal methods include using PW for hydraulic fracturing, enhanced oil recovery, well drilling, evaporation ponds or seepage pits within the O&G field, and transferring PW offsite for management or reuse. Currently, 1–2% of PW in the U.S. is used outside the O&G field after treatment. With the considerable interest in PW reuse to reduce environmental implications and alleviate regional water scarcity, it is imperative to analyze the current regulatory framework for PW management and reuse. In the U.S., PW is subject to a complex set of federal, state, and sometimes local regulations to address the wide range of PW management, construction, and operation practices. Under the supervision of the U.S. Environment Protection Agency (U.S. EPA), different states have their own regulatory agencies and requirements based on state-specific practices and laws. This study analyzed the regulatory framework in major O&G-producing regions surrounding the management of PW, including relevant laws and jurisdictional illustrations of water rules and responsibilities, water quality standards, and PW disposal and current/potential beneficial reuse up to early 2022. The selected eastern states (based on the 98th meridian designated by the U.S. EPA as a tool to separate discharge permitting) include the Appalachian Basin (Marcellus and Utica shale areas of Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West Virginia), Oklahoma, and Texas; and the western states include California, Colorado, New Mexico, and Wyoming. These regions represent different regulations; climates; water quantities; quality diversities; and geologic, geographic, and hydrologic conditions. This review is particularly focused on the water quality standards, reuse practices and scenarios, risks assessment, knowledge gaps, and research needs for the potential reuse of treated PW outside of O&G fields. Given the complexity surrounding PW regulations and rules, this study is intended as preliminary guidance for PW management, and for identifying the knowledge gaps and research needs to reduce the potential impacts of treated PW reuse on the environment and public health. The regulations and experiences learned from these case studies would significantly benefit other states and countries with O&G sources for the protection of their environment and public health.

Forecasting induced seismicity in Oklahoma using machine learning methods

Oklahoma earthquakes in the past decade have been mostly associated with wastewater injection. Here we use a machine learning technique—the Random Forest to forecast induced seismicity rate in Oklahoma based on injection-related parameters. We split the data into training (2011.01–2015.05) and test (2015.06–2020.12) periods. The model forecasts seismicity rate during the test period based on input features, including operational parameters (injection rate and pressure), geological information (depth to basement), and modeled pore pressure and poroelastic stress. The results show overall good match with observed seismicity rate (adjusted \documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$R^2$$\end{document}R2 of 0.75). The model shows that pore pressure rate and poroelastic stressing rates are the two most important features in forecasting. The absolute values of pore pressure and poroelastic stress, and the injection rate itself, are less important than the stressing rates. These findings further emphasize that temporal changes of stressing rates would lead to significant changes in seismicity rates.

A Simple Relation to Constrain Groundwater Models Using Surface Deformation

A simple relation between pore pressure change and one-dimensional surface deformation is presented. The relation is for pore pressure change in a confined aquifer that causes surface deformation. It can be applied to groundwater models of any discretization and is computationally efficient. The estimated surface deformation from model results can be compared to observed surface deformation through geodetic techniques such as Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar. Model parameters then are constrained using the observed surface deformation. The validity of this relation is shown through constraint of model parameters for surface uplift due to pore pressure increase caused by wastewater disposal injection.

Earthquake hazard and risk analysis for natural and induced seismicity: towards objective assessments in the face of uncertainty

The fundamental objective of earthquake engineering is to protect lives and livelihoods through the reduction of seismic risk. Directly or indirectly, this generally requires quantification of the risk, for which quantification of the seismic hazard is required as a basic input. Over the last several decades, the practice of seismic hazard analysis has evolved enormously, firstly with the introduction of a rational framework for handling the apparent randomness in earthquake processes, which also enabled risk assessments to consider both the severity and likelihood of earthquake effects. The next major evolutionary step was the identification of epistemic uncertainties related to incomplete knowledge, and the formulation of frameworks for both their quantification and their incorporation into hazard assessments. Despite these advances in the practice of seismic hazard analysis, it is not uncommon for the acceptance of seismic hazard estimates to be hindered by invalid comparisons, resistance to new information that challenges prevailing views, and attachment to previous estimates of the hazard. The challenge of achieving impartial acceptance of seismic hazard and risk estimates becomes even more acute in the case of earthquakes attributed to human activities. A more rational evaluation of seismic hazard and risk due to induced earthquakes may be facilitated by adopting, with appropriate adaptations, the advances in risk quantification and risk mitigation developed for natural seismicity. While such practices may provide an impartial starting point for decision making regarding risk mitigation measures, the most promising avenue to achieve broad societal acceptance of the risks associated with induced earthquakes is through effective regulation, which needs to be transparent, independent, and informed by risk considerations based on both sound seismological science and reliable earthquake engineering.

Changes in Deep Groundwater Flow Patterns Related to Oil and Gas Activities

Large volumes of saline formation water are both produced from and injected into sedimentary basins as a by-product of oil and gas production. Despite this, the location of production and injection wells has not been studied in detail at the regional scale and the effects on deep groundwater flow patterns (i.e., below the base of groundwater protection) possibly driving fluid flow toward shallow aquifers remain uncertain. Even where injection and production volumes are equal at the basin scale, local changes in hydraulic head can occur due to the distribution of production and injection wells. In the Canadian portion of the Williston Basin, over 4.6 × 10⁹  m³ of water has been co-produced with 5.4 × 10⁸  m³ of oil, and over 5.5 × 10⁹  m³ of water has been injected into the subsurface for salt water disposal or enhanced oil recovery. Despite approximately equal values of produced and injected fluids at the sedimentary basin scale over the history of development, cumulative fluid deficits and surpluses per unit area in excess of a few 100 mm are present at scales of a few 100 km² . Fluid fluxes associated with oil and gas activities since 1950 likely exceed background groundwater fluxes in these areas. Modeled pressures capable of creating upward hydraulic gradients are predicted for the Midale Member and Mannville Group, two of the strata with the highest amounts of injection in the study area. This could lead to upward leakage of fluids if permeable pathways, such as leaky wells, are present.

Dynamic rupture initiation and propagation in a fluid-injection laboratory setup with diagnostics across multiple temporal scales

Fluids are known to trigger a broad range of slip events, from slow, creeping transients to dynamic earthquake ruptures. Yet, the detailed mechanics underlying these processes and the conditions leading to different rupture behaviors are not well understood. Here, we use a laboratory earthquake setup, capable of injecting pressurized fluids, to compare the rupture behavior for different rates of fluid injection, slow (megapascals per hour) versus fast (megapascals per second). We find that for the fast injection rates, dynamic ruptures are triggered at lower pressure levels and over spatial scales much smaller than the quasistatic theoretical estimates of nucleation sizes, suggesting that such fast injection rates constitute dynamic loading. In contrast, the relatively slow injection rates result in gradual nucleation processes, with the fluid spreading along the interface and causing stress changes consistent with gradually accelerating slow slip. The resulting dynamic ruptures propagating over wetted interfaces exhibit dynamic stress drops almost twice as large as those over the dry interfaces. These results suggest the need to take into account the rate of the pore-pressure increase when considering nucleation processes and motivate further investigation on how friction properties depend on the presence of fluids.

Analysis and prediction of produced water quantity and quality in the Permian Basin using machine learning techniques

Appropriate produced water (PW) management is critical for oil and gas industry. Understanding PW quantity and quality trends for one well or all similar wells in one region would significantly assist operators, regulators, and water treatment/disposal companies in optimizing PW management. In this research, historical PW quantity and quality data in the New Mexico portion (NM) of the Permian Basin from 1995 to 2019 was collected, pre-processed, and analyzed to understand the distribution, trend and characteristics of PW production for potential beneficial use. Various machine learning algorithms were applied to predict PW quantity for different types of oil and gas wells. Both linear and non-linear regression approaches were used to conduct the analysis. The prediction results from five-fold cross-validation showed that the Random Forest Regression model reported high prediction accuracy. The AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average model showed good results for predicting PW volume in time series. The water quality analysis results showed that the PW samples from the Delaware and Artesia Formations (mostly from conventional wells) had the highest and the lowest average total dissolved solids concentrations of 194,535 mg/L and 100,036 mg/L, respectively. This study is the first research that comprehensively analyzed and predicted PW quantity and quality in the NM-Permian Basin. The results can be used to develop a geospatial metrics analysis or facilitate system modeling to identify the potential opportunities and challenges of PW management alternatives within and outside oil and gas industry. The machine learning techniques developed in this study are generic and can be applied to other basins to predict PW quantity and quality.

The 2019-2020 Khalili (Iran) Earthquake Sequence-Anthropogenic Seismicity in the Zagros Simply Folded Belt?

We investigate the origin of a long-lived earthquake cluster in the Fars arc of the Zagros Simply Folded Belt that is colocated with the major Shanul natural gas field. The cluster emerged in January 2019 and initially comprised small events of M _n ∼ 3-4. It culminated on 9 June 2020 with a pair of M _w 5.4 and 5.7 earthquakes, which was followed by >100 aftershocks. We assess the spatiotemporal evolution of the earthquake sequence using multiple event hypocenter relocations, waveform inversions, and Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) measurements and models. We find that the early part of the sequence is spatially distinct from the 9 June 2020 earthquakes and their aftershocks. Moment tensors, centroid depths, and source parameter uncertainties of 15 of the largest (M _n ≥ 4.0) events show that the sequence is dominated by reverse faulting at shallow depths (mostly ≤4 km) within the sedimentary cover. InSAR modeling shows that the M _w 5.7 mainshock occurred at depths of 2-8 km with a rupture length and maximum slip of ∼20 km and ∼0.5 m, respectively. Our results suggest that the 2019-2020 Khalili earthquake sequence was likely influenced by operation of the Shanul field, though elevated natural seismicity in the Zagros makes the association difficult to prove. Understanding how to distinguish man-made from natural seismicity is helpful for hazard and risk assessment, notably in the Zagros, which is both seismically active and rich in oil and gas reserves.

Seismicity at the Castor gas reservoir driven by pore pressure diffusion and asperities loading

The 2013 seismic sequence at the Castor injection platform offshore Spain, including three earthquakes of magnitude 4.1, occurred during the initial filling of a planned Underground Gas Storage facility. The Castor sequence is one of the most important cases of induced seismicity in Europe and a rare example of seismicity induced by gas injection into a depleted oil field. Here we use advanced seismological techniques applied to an enhanced waveform dataset, to resolve the geometry of the faults, develop a greatly enlarged seismicity catalog and record details of the rupture kinematics. The sequence occurred by progressive fault failure and unlocking, with seismicity initially migrating away from the injection points, triggered by pore pressure diffusion, and then back again, breaking larger asperities loaded to higher stress and producing the largest earthquakes. Seismicity occurred almost exclusively on a secondary fault, located below the reservoir, dipping opposite from the reservoir bounding fault.

The 2013 Castor seismic sequence, offshore Spain, is a rare example of seismicity induced by gas storage operations. Here we show that early seismicity marked the progressive failure of a fault in response to pore pressure diffusion, while later larger earthquakes resulted by the failure of loaded asperities.

Contrasting Public and Scientific Assessments of Fracking

This paper examines whether public perceptions of the claimed advantages and disadvantages of fracking are consistent with an evidence-based assessment of the claimed advantages and disadvantages. Public assessments are obtained from an internet-based opinion survey in 2014 in six states: California, Illinois, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas. The survey presented eleven advantages and eleven disadvantages of fracking derived from local media stories, from advocacy claims made by pro- or anti-fracking groups, and from think tank pieces. Then the respondents were asked to indicate their feelings about how important each claimed advantage and disadvantage was to their support of/opposition to fracking. Scientific assessments regarding the same claims are compiled from available peer-reviewed literature and evidence-based reviews. We classify each claim as either (a) supported by the weight of the available evidence, (b) not supported by the weight of the available evidence, or (c) there is inadequate evidence to assess it. We find less consistency with respect to the disadvantages than advantages. Respondents perceive four disadvantages out of eleven as extremely important while there is inadequate evidence to assess them or the available evidence does not support them. Our comparison has interesting implications for understanding the controversy about fracking.

Comparison of the Hydraulic Fracturing Water Cycle in China and North America: A Critical Review

There is considerable debate about the sustainability of the hydraulic fracturing (HF) water cycle in North America. Recently, this debate has expanded to China, where HF activities continue to grow. Here, we provide a critical review of the HF water cycle in China, including water withdrawal practices and flowback and produced water (FPW) management and their environmental impacts, with a comprehensive comparison to the U.S. and Canada (North America). Water stress in arid regions, as well as water management challenges, FPW contamination of aquatic and soil systems, and induced seismicity are all impacts of the HF water cycle in China, the U.S., and Canada. In light of experience gained in North America, standardized practices for analyzing and reporting FPW chemistry and microbiology in China are needed to inform its efficient and safe treatment, discharge and reuse, and identification of potential contaminants. Additionally, conducting ecotoxicological studies is an essential next step to fully reveal the impacts of accidental FPW releases into aquatic and soil ecosystems in China. From a policy perspective, the development of China's unconventional resources lags behind North America's in terms of overall regulation, especially with regard to water withdrawal, FPW management, and routine monitoring. Our study suggests that common environmental risks exist within the world's two largest HF regions, and practices used in North America may help prevent or mitigate adverse effects in China.

Widespread deep seismicity in the Delaware Basin, Texas, is mainly driven by shallow wastewater injection

Industrial activity away from plate boundaries can induce earthquakes and has evolved into a global issue. Much of the induced seismicity in the United States' midcontinent is attributed to a direct pressure increase from deep wastewater disposal. This mechanism is not applicable where deep basement faults are hydraulically isolated from shallow injection aquifers, leading to a debate about the mechanisms for induced seismicity. Here, we compile industrial, seismic, geodetic, and geological data within the Delaware Basin, western Texas, and calculate stress and pressure changes at seismogenic depth using a coupled poroelastic model. We show that the widespread deep seismicity is mainly driven by shallow wastewater injection through the transmission of poroelastic stresses assuming that unfractured shales are hydraulic barriers over decadal time scales. A zone of seismic quiescence to the north, where injection-induced stress changes would promote seismicity, suggests a regional tectonic control on the occurrence of induced earthquakes. Comparing the poroelastic responses from injection and extraction operations, we find that the basement stress is most sensitive to shallow reservoir hydrogeological parameters, particularly hydraulic diffusivity. These results demonstrate that intraplate seismicity can be caused by shallow human activities that poroelastically perturb stresses at hydraulically isolated seismogenic depths, with impacts on seismicity that are preconditioned by regional tectonics.

Chronic disaster impact: the long-term psychological and physical health consequences of housing damage due to induced earthquakes

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the long-term (psychosomatic) health consequences of man-made earthquakes compared with a non-exposure control group. Exposure was hypothesised to have an increasingly negative impact on health outcomes over time.

SETTING

Large-scale gas extraction in the Netherlands causing earthquakes and considerable damage.

PARTICIPANTS

A representative sample of inhabitants randomly selected from municipal population records; contacted 5 times during 21 months (T1: N=3934; T5: N=2150; mean age: 56.54; 50% men; at T5, N=846 (39.3%) had no, 459 (21.3%) once and 736 (34.2%) repeated damages).

MAIN MEASURES

(Psychosomatic) health outcomes: self-rated health and Mental Health Inventory (both: validated; Short Form Health Survey); stress related health symptoms (shortened version of previously validated symptoms list). Independent variable: exposure to the consequences of earthquakes assessed via physical (peak ground acceleration) and personal exposure (damage to housing: none, once, repeated).

RESULTS

Exposure to induced earthquakes has negative health consequences especially for those whose homes were damaged repeatedly. Compared with a no-damage control group, repeated damage was associated with lower self-rated health (OR:1.64), mental health (OR:1.83) and more stress-related health symptoms (OR:2.52). Effects increased over time: in terms of relative risk, by T5, those whose homes had repeated damage were respectively 1.60 and 2.11 times more likely to report poor health and negative mental health and 2.84 times more at risk of elevated stress related health symptoms. Results for physical exposure were comparable.

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to provide evidence that induced earthquakes can have negative health consequences for inhabitants over time. It identifies the subpopulation particularly at risk: people with repeated damages who have experienced many earthquakes. Findings can have important implications for the prevention of negative health consequences of induced earthquakes.

Solar distillation of highly saline produced water using low-cost and high-performance carbon black and airlaid paper-based evaporator (CAPER)

The current technologies to treat hypersaline produced water (PW), such as thermal evaporation, are usually energy-intensive and cost-prohibitive. This study developed a low-cost, robust, solar-driven carbon black and airlaid paper-based evaporator (CAPER) for desalination of PW in the Permian Basin, United States. The study aims to better understand the removal of aromatic organic compounds and heavy metals during solar distillation, water output, and heat transfer. Outdoor experiments using CAPER assisted with polystyrene foam in a single slope, single basin solar still achieved an enhanced average evaporation rate of 2.23 L per m² per day, 165% higher than that of a conventional solar still. Analysis of heat transfer models demonstrated that CAPER solar evaporation achieved an evaporative heat transfer coefficient of ∼28.9 W m^-2·K^-1, 27.9% higher than without CAPER. The maximum fractional energy of evaporation and convection heat transfer inside the solar still with and without CAPER was ∼81.4% and ∼78.2%, respectively. For the PW with a total dissolved solids concentration of 134 g L^-1, solar distillation removed 99.97% salts and over 98% heavy metals. The high removal efficiency of 99.99% was achieved for Ca, Na, Mg, Mn, Ni, Se, Sr, and V. Organic characterization revealed that solar distillation removed over 83% aromatic compounds. Solar desalination using CAPER provides a low-cost and high-performance process to treat PW with high salinity and complex water chemistry for potential fit-for-purpose beneficial uses.

High-temporal-resolution quasideterministic dynamics of granular stick-slip

We report high-temporal-resolution observations of the spontaneous instability of model granular materials under isotropic and triaxial compression in fully drained conditions during laboratory tests representative of earthquakes. Unlike in natural granular materials, in the model granular materials, during the first stage of the tests, i.e., isotropic compression, a series of local collapses of various amplitudes occurs under random triggering cell pressures. During the second stage, i.e., shearing under triaxial compression, the model granular samples exhibit very large quasiperiodic stick-slip motions at random deviatoric triggering stresses. These motions are responsible for very large stress drops that are described by power laws and are accurate over more than 3 decades in logarithmic space. Then, we identify the quasideterministic nature of these stick-slip events, assuming that they are fully controlled by the cell pressure and solid fraction. Finally, we discuss the potential mechanisms that could explain these intriguing behaviors and the possible links with natural earthquakes.

A Critical Review of the Physicochemical Impacts of Water Chemistry on Shale in Hydraulic Fracturing Systems

Hydraulic fracturing of unconventional hydrocarbon resources involves the sequential injection of a high-pressure, particle-laden fluid with varying pH's to make commercial production viable in low permeability rocks. This process both requires and produces extraordinary volumes of water. The water used for hydraulic fracturing is typically fresh, whereas "flowback" water is typically saline with a variety of additives which complicate safe disposal. As production operations continue to expand, there is an increasing interest in treating and reusing this high-salinity produced water for further fracturing. Here we review the relevant transport and geochemical properties of shales, and critically analyze the impact of water chemistry (including produced water) on these properties. We discuss five major geochemical mechanisms that are prominently involved in the temporal and spatial evolution of fractures during the stimulation and production phase: shale softening, mineral dissolution, mineral precipitation, fines migration, and wettability alteration. A higher salinity fluid creates both benefits and complications in controlling these mechanisms. For example, higher salinity fluid inhibits clay dispersion, but simultaneously requires more additives to achieve appropriate viscosity for proppant emplacement. In total this review highlights the nuances of enhanced hydrogeochemical shale stimulation in relation to the choice of fracturing fluid chemistry.

Petro-riskscapes and environmental distress in West Texas: Community perceptions of environmental degradation, threats, and loss

Unconventional oil and gas development (UOGD) expanded rapidly in the United States between 2004-2019 with resultant industrial change to landscapes and new environmental exposures. By 2019, West Texas' Permian Basin accounted for 35% of domestic oil production. We conducted an online survey of 566 Texans in 2019 to examine the implications of UOGD using three measures from the Environmental Distress Scale (EDS): perceived threat of environmental issues, felt impact of environmental change, and loss of solace when valued environments are transformed ("solastalgia"). We found increased levels of environmental distress among respondents living in counties in the Permian Basin who reported a 2.75% increase in perceived threat of environmental issues (95% CI = -1.14, 6.65) and a 4.21% increase in solastalgia (95% CI = 0.03, 8.40). In our subgroup analysis of women, we found higher EDS subscale scores among respondents in Permian Basin counties for perceived threat of environmental issues (4.08%, 95% CI= -0.12, 8.37) and solastalgia (7.09%, 95% CI= 2.44, 11.88). In analysis restricted to Permian Basin counties, we found exposure to at least one earthquake of magnitude ≥ 3 was associated with increases in perceived threat of environmental issues (4.69%, 95% CI = 0.15, 9.23), and that county-level exposure to oil and gas injection wells was associated with increases in felt impact (4.38%, 95% CI = -1.77, 10.54) and solastalgia (4.06%, 95% CI = 3.02, 11.14). Our results indicate increased environmental distress in response to UOGD-related environmental degradation among Texans and highlight the importance of considering susceptible sub-groups.

4D Travel-Time Tomography as a Tool for Tracking Fluid-Driven Medium Changes in Offshore Oil–Gas Exploitation Areas

The monitoring of rock volume where offshore exploitation activities take place is crucial to assess the corresponding seismic hazard. Fluid injection/extraction operations generate a pore fluid pressure perturbation into the volume hosting the reservoir which, in turn, may trigger new failures and induce changes in the elastic properties of rocks. Our purpose is to evaluate the feasibility of reconstructing pore pressure perturbation diffusion in the host medium by imaging the 4D velocity changes using active seismic. We simulated repeated active offshore surveys and imaged the target volume. We constructed the velocity model perturbed by the fluid injection using physical modeling and evaluated under which conditions the repeated surveys could image the velocity changes. We found that the induced pressure perturbation causes seismic velocity variations ranging between 2–5% and 15–20%, depending on the different injection conditions and medium properties. So, in most cases, time-lapse tomography is very efficient in tracking the perturbation. The noise level characterizing the recording station sites is a crucial parameter. Since we evaluated the feasibility of the proposed 4D imaging strategy under different realistic environmental and operational conditions, our results can be directly applied to set up and configure the acquisition layout of surveys aimed at retrieving fluid-induced medium changes in the hosting medium. Moreover, our results can be considered as a useful starting point to design the guidelines to monitor exploitation areas.

Geomechanical Constraints on Hydro-Seismicity: Tidal Forcing and Reservoir Operation

Understanding the risk associated with anthropogenic earthquakes is essential in the development and management of engineering processes and hydraulic infrastructure that may alter pore pressures and stresses at depth. The possibility of earthquakes triggered by reservoir impoundment, ocean tides, and hydrological events at the Earth surface (hydro-seismicity) has been extensively debated. The link between induced seismicity and hydrological events is currently based on statistical correlations rather than on physical mechanisms. Here, we explore the geomechanical conditions that could allow for small pore pressure changes due to reservoir management and sea level changes to propagate to depths that are compatible with earthquake triggering at critically-stressed faults (several kilometers). We consider a damaged fault zone that is embedded in a poroelastic rock matrix, and conduct fully coupled hydromechanical simulations of pressure diffusion and rock deformation. We characterize the hydraulic and geomechanical properties of fault zones that could allow for small pressure and loading changes at the ground surface (in the order of tens or hundreds of kPa) to propagate with relatively small attenuation to seismogenic depths (up to 10 km). We find that pressure diffusion to such depths is only possible for highly permeable fault zones and/or strong poroelastic coupling.

Understanding rate effects in injection-induced earthquakes

Understanding the physical mechanisms that underpin the link between fluid injection and seismicity is essential in efforts to mitigate the seismic risk associated with subsurface technologies. To that end, here we develop a poroelastic model of earthquake nucleation based on rate-and-state friction in the manner of spring-sliders, and analyze conditions for the emergence of stick-slip frictional instability-the mechanism for earthquakes-by carrying out a linear stability analysis and nonlinear simulations. We find that the likelihood of triggering earthquakes depends largely on the rate of increase in pore pressure rather than its magnitude. Consequently, fluid injection at constant rate acts in the direction of triggering seismic rupture at early times followed by aseismic creep at late times. Our model implies that, for the same cumulative volume of injected fluid, an abrupt high-rate injection protocol is likely to increase the seismic risk whereas a gradual step-up protocol is likely to decrease it.

Causal mechanism of injection-induced earthquakes through the Mw 5.5 Pohang earthquake case study

Causal mechanisms for fluid injection-induced earthquakes remain a challenge to identify. Past studies largely established spatiotemporal correlations. Here, we propose a multi-process causal mechanism for injection-induced earthquakes through a case study of the 2017 M_w 5.5 induced earthquake near Pohang Enhanced Geothermal System, Korea, where detailed hydraulic stimulation and on-site seismicity monitoring data provide an unprecedented opportunity. Pore pressure modeling reveals that pore pressure changes initiate seismicity on critically stressed faults and Coulomb static stress transfer modeling reveals that earthquake interactions promote continued seismicity, leading to larger events. On the basis of these results, we propose the following causal mechanism for induced seismicity: pore pressure increase and earthquake interactions lead to fault weakening and ultimately triggering larger earthquakes later in the process. We suggest that it is prudent that pore pressure change, initial seismicity locations, and Coulomb static stress transfer from seismicity earlier in the sequence are assessed in real-time.

The authors here suggest a causal mechanism for injection-induced earthquakes. They further suggest pore pressure modeling as a practical alternative to direct in-situ pore pressure observation which can then be used for stress build-up monitoring.

Paradigm shifts and current challenges in wastewater management

Wastewater is a significant environmental and public health concern which management is a constant challenge since antiquity. Wastewater research has increased exponentially over the last decades. This paper provides a global overview of the exponentially increasing wastewater research in order to identify current challenges and paradigm shifts. Besides households, hospitals and typical industries, other sources of wastewater appear due to emerging activities like hydraulic fracturing. While the composition of wastewater needs constant reassessment to identify contaminants of interest, the comprehensive chemical and toxicological analysis remains one of the main challenges in wastewater research. Moreover, recent changes in the public perception of wastewater has led to several paradigm shifts: i) water reuse considering wastewater as a water resource rather than a hazardous waste, ii) wastewater-based epidemiology considering wastewater as a source of information regarding the overall health of a population through the analysis of specific biomarkers, iii) circular economy through the implementation of treatment processes aiming at harvesting valuable components such as precious metals or producing valuable goods such as biofuel. However, wastewater research should also address social challenges such as the public acceptance of water reuse or the access to basic sanitation that is not available for nearly a third of the world population.

Will Water Issues Constrain Oil and Gas Production in the United States?

The rapid growth in U.S. unconventional oil and gas has made energy more available and affordable globally but brought environmental concerns, especially related to water. We analyzed the water-related sustainability of energy extraction, focusing on: (a) meeting the rapidly rising water demand for hydraulic fracturing (HF) and (b) managing rapidly growing volumes of water co-produced with oil and gas (produced water, PW). We analyzed historical (2009-2017) HF water and PW volumes in ∼73 000 wells and projected future water volumes in major U.S. unconventional oil (semiarid regions) and gas (humid regions) plays. Results show a marked increase in HF water use, and depleting groundwater in some semiarid regions (e.g., by ≤58 ft [18 m]/year in Eagle Ford). PW from oil reservoirs (e.g., Permian) is ∼15× higher than that from gas reservoirs (Marcellus). Water issues related to both HF water demand and PW supplies may be partially mitigated by closing the loop through reuse of PW for HF of new wells. However, projected PW volumes exceed HF water demand in semiarid Bakken (2.1×), Permian Midland (1.3×), and Delaware (3.7×) oil plays, with the Delaware oil play accounting for ∼50% of the projected U.S. oil production. Therefore, water issues could constrain future energy production, particularly in semiarid oil plays.

Operational and geological controls of coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along faults: Induced earthquakes in Pohang, South Korea

Coupled poroelastic stressing and pore-pressure accumulation along pre-existing faults in deep basement contribute to recent occurrence of seismic events at subsurface energy exploration sites. Our coupled fluid-flow and geomechanical model describes the physical processes inducing seismicity corresponding to the sequential stimulation operations in Pohang, South Korea. Simulation results show that prolonged accumulation of poroelastic energy and pore pressure along a fault can nucleate seismic events larger than M_w3 even after terminating well operations. In particular the possibility of large seismic events can be increased by multiple-well operations with alternate injection and extraction that can enhance the degree of pore-pressure diffusion and subsequent stress transfer through a rigid and low-permeability rock to the fault. This study demonstrates that the proper mechanistic model and optimal well operations need to be accounted for to mitigate unexpected seismic hazards in the presence of the site-specific uncertainty such as hidden/undetected faults and stress regime.

Pore-pressure diffusion, enhanced by poroelastic stresses, controls induced seismicity in Oklahoma

We develop a physics-based earthquake-forecasting model for evaluating seismic hazard due to fluid injection, considering both pore pressure and poroelastic stresses. Applying this model to complex settings like Oklahoma, we show that the regional induced earthquake timing and magnitude are controlled by the process of fluid diffusion in a poroelastic medium, and thus seismicity can be successfully forecasted by using a rate-and-state earthquake nucleation model. We find that pore-pressure diffusion controls the induced earthquakes in Oklahoma. However, its impact is enhanced by poroelastic effects. This finding has significant implications for induced earthquake-forecasting efforts by integrating the physics of fluid diffusion and earthquake nucleation.

Induced seismicity linked to geothermal resource exploitation, hydraulic fracturing, and wastewater disposal is evolving into a global issue because of the increasing energy demand. Moderate to large induced earthquakes, causing widespread hazards, are often related to fluid injection into deep permeable formations that are hydraulically connected to the underlying crystalline basement. Using injection data combined with a physics-based linear poroelastic model and rate-and-state friction law, we compute the changes in crustal stress and seismicity rate in Oklahoma. This model can be used to assess earthquake potential on specific fault segments. The regional magnitude–time distribution of the observed magnitude (M) 3+ earthquakes during 2008–2017 is reproducible and is the same for the 2 optimal, conjugate fault orientations suggested for Oklahoma. At the regional scale, the timing of predicted seismicity rate, as opposed to its pattern and amplitude, is insensitive to hydrogeological and nucleation parameters in Oklahoma. Poroelastic stress changes alone have a small effect on the seismic hazard. However, their addition to pore-pressure changes can increase the seismicity rate by 6-fold and 2-fold for central and western Oklahoma, respectively. The injection-rate reduction in 2016 mitigates the exceedance probability of M5.0 by 22% in western Oklahoma, while that of central Oklahoma remains unchanged. A hypothetical injection shut-in in April 2017 causes the earthquake probability to approach its background level by ∼2025. We conclude that stress perturbation on prestressed faults due to pore-pressure diffusion, enhanced by poroelastic effects, is the primary driver of the induced earthquakes in Oklahoma.

High density oilfield wastewater disposal causes deeper, stronger, and more persistent earthquakes

Oilfield wastewater disposal causes fluid pressure transients that induce earthquakes. Here we show that, in addition to pressure transients related to pumping, there are pressure transients caused by density differences between the wastewater and host rock fluids. In northern Oklahoma, this effect caused earthquakes to migrate downward at ~0.5 km per year during a period of high-rate injections. Following substantial injection rate reductions, the downward earthquake migration rate slowed to ~0.1 km per year. Our model of this scenario shows that the density-driven pressure front migrates downward at comparable rates. This effect may locally increase fluid pressure below injection wells for 10+ years after substantial injection rate reductions. We also show that in north-central Oklahoma the relative proportion of high-magnitude earthquakes increases at 8+ km depth. Thus, our study implies that, following injection rate reductions, the frequency of high-magnitude earthquakes may decay more slowly than the overall earthquake rate.

Oilfield wastewater is commonly discarded by pumping it into deep geologic formations, but this process is now known to cause earthquakes. Here, he authors show that high-density oilfield wastewater may sink deeper in the Earth’s crust than previously considered possible, thus increasing fluid pressure and inducing earthquakes for years after injection rates decline.

Identifying hotspots and representative monitoring area of groundwater changes with time stability analysis

Groundwater is a most accessible freshwater resource for human beings, and it is increasingly important as an alternative to surface water under the threat of climate change. However, its complex spatio-temporal dynamic remains unattended from management perspective. Past studies on groundwater management were stalled by a relative dearth of high-quality data and a lack of synthetic analysis on both spatial and temporal information. Thanks to NASA's launch of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission, our study has solved these two problems by innovatively applying time stability analysis to GRACE-based groundwater data. Taking the Yellow River Basin (YRB) as an example, we employed GRACE satellite data to obtain monthly changes of groundwater tables from Jan. 2003 to Dec. 2016 in 1.0-degree grid of spatial resolution. Then we identified hotspots (which indicated severe groundwater declines and fluctuations over time) and representative monitoring areas (which stably represented the spatial average over time) using time stability analysis. Time stability employs multiple coefficients to identify the spatial relations between local variables and global variables overtime, thus showing the overall effect of spatial-wise and temporal-wise factors but never used in groundwater studies before. Based on this innovative method, we further identified management categories across the YRB using multivariate cluster analysis. As a result, the YRB has been divided into five zones for different management strategies. We identified the hotspots in west-most and east-most areas of the YRB, where we suggest a strengthened groundwater protections and risk response system. The northern part of the middle reach in the YRB was also identified as the representative monitoring areas. With these knowledge, decision-makers can have a clearer regional plan for groundwater protection, monitoring, and risk response system. This new method enables a quick decision on the prioritized areas for different groundwater management strategies while not losing the scope of spatio-temporal heterogeneity.

Fluid-induced aseismic fault slip outpaces pore-fluid migration

Earthquake swarms attributed to subsurface fluid injection are usually assumed to occur on faults destabilized by increased pore-fluid pressures. However, fluid injection could also activate aseismic slip, which might outpace pore-fluid migration and transmit earthquake-triggering stress changes beyond the fluid-pressurized region. We tested this theoretical prediction against data derived from fluid-injection experiments that activated and measured slow, aseismic slip on preexisting, shallow faults. We found that the pore pressure and slip history imply a fault whose strength is the product of a slip-weakening friction coefficient and the local effective normal stress. Using a coupled shear-rupture model, we derived constraints on the hydromechanical parameters of the actively deforming fault. The inferred aseismic rupture front propagates faster and to larger distances than the diffusion of pressurized pore fluid.

The Role of Fault-Zone Architectural Elements on Pore Pressure Propagation and Induced Seismicity

We used hydrogeologic models to assess how fault-zone properties promote or inhibit the downward propagation of fluid overpressures from a basal reservoir injection well (150 m from fault zone, Q = 5000 m³ /day) into the underlying crystalline basement rocks. We varied the permeability of the fault-zone architectural components and a crystalline basement weathered layer as part of a numerical sensitivity study. Realistic conduit-barrier style fault zones effectively transmit elevated pore pressures associated with 4 years of continuous injection to depths of approximately 2.5 km within the crystalline basement while compartmentalizing fluid flow within the injection reservoir. The presence of a laterally continuous, relatively low-permeability altered/weathered basement horizon (k_{altered layer} = 0.1 × k_basement ) can limit the penetration depth of the pressure front to approximately 500 m. On the other hand, the presence of a discontinuous altered/weathered horizon that partially confines the injection reservoir without blocking the fault fluid conduit promotes downward propagation of pressures. Permeability enhancement via hydromechanical failure was found to increase the depth of early-time pressure front migration by a factor of 1.3 to 1.85. Dynamic permeability models may help explain seismicity at depths of greater than 10 km such as is observed within the Permian Basin, NM.

Energy of injection-induced seismicity predicted from in-situ experiments

The ability to predict the magnitude of an earthquake caused by deep fluid injections is an important factor for assessing the safety of the reservoir storage and the seismic hazard. Here, we propose a new approach to evaluate the seismic energy released during fluid injection by integrating injection parameters, induced aseismic deformation, and the distance of earthquake sources from injection. We use data from ten injection experiments performed at a decameter scale into fault zones in limestone and shale formations. We observe that the seismic energy and the hydraulic energy similarly depend on the injected fluid volume (V), as they both scale as V^3/2. They show, however, a large discrepancy, partly related to a large aseismic deformation. Therefore, to accurately predict the released seismic energy, aseismic deformation should be considered in the budget through the residual deformation measured at the injection. Alternatively, the minimal hypocentral distance from injection points and the critical fluid pressure for fault reactivation can be used for a better prediction of the seismic moment in the total compilation of earthquakes observed during these experiments. Complementary to the prediction based only on the injected fluid volume, our approach opens the possibility of using alternative monitoring parameters to improve traffic-light protocols for induced earthquakes and the regulation of operational injection activities.

Stabilization of fault slip by fluid injection in the laboratory and in situ

Faults can slip seismically or aseismically depending on their hydromechanical properties, which can be measured in the laboratory. Here, we demonstrate that fault slip induced by fluid injection in a natural fault at the decametric scale is quantitatively consistent with fault slip and frictional properties measured in the laboratory. The increase in fluid pressure first induces accelerating aseismic creep and fault opening. As the fluid pressure increases further, friction becomes mainly rate strengthening, favoring aseismic slip. Our study reveals how coupling between fault slip and fluid flow promotes stable fault creep during fluid injection. Seismicity is most probably triggered indirectly by the fluid injection due to loading of nonpressurized fault patches by aseismic creep.

Accuracy of methods for reporting inorganic element concentrations and radioactivity in oil and gas wastewaters from the Appalachian Basin, U.S. based on an inter-laboratory comparison

Accurate and precise analyses of oil and gas (O&G) wastewaters and solids (e.g., sediments and sludge) are important for the regulatory monitoring of O&G development and tracing potential O&G contamination in the environment. In this study, 15 laboratories participated in an inter-laboratory comparison on the chemical characterization of three O&G wastewaters from the Appalachian Basin and four solids impacted by O&G development, with the goal of evaluating the quality of data and the accuracy of measurements for various analytes of concern. Using a variety of different methods, analytes in the wastewaters with high concentrations (i.e., >5 mg L-1) were easily detectable with relatively high accuracy, often within ±10% of the most probable value (MPV). In contrast, often less than 7 of the 15 labs were able to report detectable trace metal(loid) concentrations (i.e., Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, and Pb) with accuracies of approximately ±40%. Despite most labs using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) with low instrument detection capabilities for trace metal analyses, large dilution factors during sample preparation and low trace metal concentrations in the wastewaters limited the number of quantifiable determinations and likely influenced analytical accuracy. In contrast, all the labs measuring Ra in the wastewaters were able to report detectable concentrations using a variety of methods including gamma spectroscopy and wet chemical approaches following Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standard methods. However, the reported radium activities were often greater than ±30% different to the MPV possibly due to calibration inconsistencies among labs, radon leakage, or failing to correct for self-attenuation. Reported radium activities in solid materials had less variability (±20% from MPV) but accuracy could likely be improved by using certified radium standards and accounting for self-attenuation that results from matrix interferences or a density difference between the calibration standard and the unknown sample. This inter-laboratory comparison illustrates that numerous methods can be used to measure major cation, minor cation, and anion concentrations in O&G wastewaters with relatively high accuracy while trace metal(loid) and radioactivity analyses in liquids may often be over ±20% different from the MPV.

Characterization and biological removal of organic compounds from hydraulic fracturing produced water

Hydraulic fracturing generates large volumes of produced water, and treatment of produced water may be necessary for disposal or reuse. Biological treatment of produced water is a potential approach to remove organic constituents and reduce fouling, in conjunction with other treatment processes. This study investigates the biological treatability of produced water samples from the Utica and Bakken Shales using engineered biofilms. Observed total dissolved organic carbon (DOC) removal varied between 1-87% at normalized total dissolved solids concentrations, suggesting that the composition of produced water, including organic constituents and trace elements such as nutrients and metals, is an important driver of biological treatment performance. Mass spectrometric analyses of the DOC composition revealed various alkanes in all samples, but differences in non-ionic surfactant, halogenated, and acidic compound content. Statistical data reduction approaches suggest that the latter two groups are correlated with reduced biodegradation kinetics. These results demonstrate that the combination of biodegradation performance and organic speciation can guide the assessment of the biological treatment of produced water.

Characterization and implications of solids associated with hydraulic fracturing flowback and produced water from the Duvernay Formation, Alberta, Canada

Public concern is heightened around flowback and produced water (FPW) generated by the hydraulic fracturing process. FPW is a complex mix of organic and inorganic solutes derived from both the injected hydraulic fracturing fluid and interactions with the subsurface lithology. Few studies to date have systematically investigated the composition of FPW or its individual components. Here, we provide the first systematic characterization of the composition of the solids associated with FPW by analyzing samples from three wells drilled into the Duvernay Formation in Alberta, Canada. The FPW initially returned to the surface with high total dissolved solids (greater than 170 000 mg L-1) and enriched with Fe(ii), silica, sulfate, barium, and strontium. The solids form two distinct phases once the FPW reached the surface: (1) silica-enriched Fe(iii) oxyhydroxides, and (2) a barite-celestine solid solution. We hypothesize that the precipitation of the amorphous silica-enriched Fe(iii) oxyhydroxide is a two-step process, where first the silica precipitates as a function of the cooling of the FPW from elevated subsurface temperatures to ambient surface temperatures. Next, the silica acts as a template for the precipitation of Fe(iii) oxyhydroxide as the diffusion of oxygen into the subsurface causes oxidation of aqueous Fe(ii). The barite-celestine solid solution precipitates solely as a function of cooling. Elevated dissolved Fe concentrations in FPW and modeled saturation indices from five North American shale plays (Marcellus, Fayetteville, Barnett, Bakken, and Denver-Julesburg) indicate that solids similar to those found in Duvernay FPW, specifically Fe(iii) oxyhydroxides, barite and quartz, are likely to occur. With the solids known to carry a significant portion of FPW's toxicity and organic contaminant load, the development of new treatment technologies, such as the oxidation of the Fe(ii) in FPW, may increase FPW reuse and reduce the environmental risk posed by FPW.

Transport of barium in fractured dolomite and sandstone saline aquifers

To understand the advective-dispersive transport of Ba in fractured dolomite and sandstone saline aquifers, we conducted core-flooding experiments and reactive transport simulations. We used intact and synthetic fractured dolomite and sandstone cores collected from formations where hydraulic fracturing (HF) wastewater is disposed in Oklahoma, USA. The core-flooding experiments were conducted using saline water containing typical concentrations of NaCl (90 g/L), Ca (5 g/L), Mg (1 g/L), and Ba (100 mg/L) in HF wastewaters. At typical concentrations of NaCl, Ca, and Mg in HF wastewater, our experimental results show similar Ba transport rates in both intact and fractured dolomites but faster Ba transport rates in intact than in fractured sandstones. We found a match between measured and simulated breakthrough curves of Ba in intact and fractured sandstones. This supports the hypothesis that the inhibitory effect of salinity on Ba sorption increases Ba transport through matrix pores bordering the fracture while reducing its transport through the fracture. This is reflected by a reduction of the overall rate of Ba transport through fractured dolomites and sandstones. We found that the effect of salinity in retarding Ba transport through fractured dolomites and sandstones increases with increased matrix porosity and/or fracture aperture size. We implemented the multiple interacting continua (MINC) method developed for modeling fluid flow in fractured porous media to successfully capture the effect of salinity, matrix porosity and fracture aperture size on Ba transport in fractured sandstones. The measured and simulated results have significant implications on efforts of field-scale simulations of Ba transport in dolomite and sandstone saline aquifers where HF wastewater is disposed.

Spatiotemporal Assessment of Induced Seismicity in Oklahoma: Foreseeable Fewer Earthquakes for Sustainable Oil and Gas Extraction?

In this study we present a spatiotemporal analysis of the recent seismicity and industry-related wastewater injection activity in Oklahoma. A parsimonious predictive tool was developed to estimate the lagged effect of previous month’s injection volumes on subsequent regional seismic activity. Results support the hypothesis that the recent boom in unconventional oil and gas production and either the mitigation policies or the drop in oil prices (or both) are potentially responsible for the upsurge and reduction in the state’s seismic activity between 2006–2015 and 2016–2017, respectively. A cluster analysis reveals a synchronous migration pattern between earthquake occurrences and salt water injection with a predominant northwest direction during 2006 through 2017. A lagged cross-correlation analysis allows extracting a power law between expected number of quakes and weighted average monthly injection volumes with a coefficient of determination of R2 = 0.77. Such a relation could be used to establish “sustainable water injection limits” aiming to minimize seismicity to values comparable with several historically representative averages. Results from these analyses coincide on previously found sustainable limits of 5 to 6 million m3/month but expand to operations that could attain the same number through differential monthly planning. Findings could potentially be used for model intercomparison and regulation policies.

Risk Society and Anti-Politics in the Fracking Debate

Fracking in the United Kingdom has yet to reach full industrial development, but it is still subject to significant opposition. This study uses Beck’s risk society theory and anti-politics to examine the views voiced by opponents to fracking in Yorkshire, England. A qualitative approach was used. Semi-structured interviews with protesters and local newspaper reports were evaluated to provide a thematic analysis. The study drew upon discourse analysis and framing literature to reveal discourses within the interviews. Although there are signs of post-materialist concerns with the environment, these issues did not dominate the discussion. Scientists were not held responsible for the risks involved in fracking. Instead, the economic greediness of politicians and austerity measures were perceived as putting the environment and human health at risk. Interviewees thought fossil fuel energy production was economically advantaged over more sustainable energy and jobs in the low carbon economy. Protesters’ trust in politicians had been eroded, but faith in democracy remained. It is argued that the consensual post-politics of risk society have not led to a reinvigoration of democratic debate. Instead anti-politics have taken place, due to the frustration of citizens. Protesters wanted a citizen-led deliberative approach to the concerns raised. Such a process would have to go beyond the consensual, and recognise the inherently agonistic process of democracy if it is to succeed.

The spatial footprint of injection wells in a global compilation of induced earthquake sequences

Fluid injection can cause extensive earthquake activity, sometimes at unexpectedly large distances. Appropriately mitigating associated seismic hazards requires a better understanding of the zone of influence of injection. We analyze spatial seismicity decay in a global dataset of 18 induced cases with clear association between isolated wells and earthquakes. We distinguish two populations. The first is characterized by near-well seismicity density plateaus and abrupt decay, dominated by square-root space-time migration and pressure diffusion. Injection at these sites occurs within the crystalline basement. The second population exhibits larger spatial footprints and magnitudes, as well as a power law-like, steady spatial decay over more than 10 kilometers, potentially caused by poroelastic effects. Far-reaching spatial effects during injection may increase event magnitudes and seismic hazard beyond expectations based on purely pressure-driven seismicity.

Physics-based forecasting of man-made earthquake hazards in Oklahoma and Kansas

Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, triggered thousands of widely felt and several damaging earthquakes in Oklahoma and Kansas. The future seismic hazard remains uncertain. Here, we present a new methodology to forecast the probability of damaging induced earthquakes in space and time. In our hybrid physical–statistical model, seismicity is driven by the rate of injection-induced pressure increases at any given location and spatial variations in the number and stress state of preexisting basement faults affected by the pressure increase. If current injection practices continue, earthquake hazards are expected to decrease slowly. Approximately 190, 130 and 100 widely felt M ≥ 3 earthquakes are anticipated in 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, with corresponding probabilities of potentially damaging M ≥ 5 earthquakes of 32, 24 and 19%. We identify areas where produced-water injection is more likely to cause seismicity. Our methodology can be used to evaluate future injection scenarios intended to mitigate seismic hazards.

Reinjection of saltwater, co-produced with oil, has the potential to trigger damaging earthquakes. Here, using Oklahoma and Kansas as an example, the authors present a new physics-based methodology to forecast future probabilities of potentially damaging induced-earthquakes in space and time.

The Effect of Geographic Proximity to Unconventional Oil and Gas Development on Public Support for Hydraulic Fracturing

With the rapid growth of unconventional oil and natural gas development transforming the U.S. economic and physical landscape, social scientists have increasingly explored the spatial dynamics of public support for this issue-that is, whether people closer to unconventional oil and gas development are more supportive or more opposed. While theoretical frameworks like construal-level theory and the "Not in My Backyard" (or NIMBY) moniker provide insight into these spatial dynamics, case studies in specific locations experiencing energy development reveal substantial variation in community responses. Larger-scale studies exploring the link between proximity and support have been hampered by data quality and availability. We draw on a unique data set that includes geo-coded data from national surveys (nine waves; n = 19,098) and high-resolution well location data to explore the relationship between proximity and both familiarity with and support for hydraulic fracturing. We use two different measures of proximity-respondent distance to the nearest well and the density of wells within a certain radius of the respondent's location. We find that both types of proximity to new development are linked to more familiarity with hydraulic fracturing, even after controlling for various individual and contextual factors, but only distance-based proximity is linked to more support for the practice. When significant, these relationships are similar to or exceed the effects of race, income, gender, and age. We discuss the implications of these findings for effective risk communication as well as the importance of incorporating spatial analysis into public opinion research on perceptions of energy development.

Induced Earthquakes from Long-Term Gas Extraction in Groningen, the Netherlands: Statistical Analysis and Prognosis for Acceptable-Risk Regulation

Recently, growing earthquake activity in the northeastern Netherlands has aroused considerable concern among the 600,000 provincial inhabitants. There, at 3 km deep, the rich Groningen gas field extends over 900 km² and still contains about 600 of the original 2,800 billion cubic meters (bcm). Particularly after 2001, earthquakes have increased in number, magnitude (M, on the logarithmic Richter scale), and damage to numerous buildings. The man-made nature of extraction-induced earthquakes challenges static notions of risk, complicates formal risk assessment, and questions familiar conceptions of acceptable risk. Here, a 26-year set of 294 earthquakes with M ≥ 1.5 is statistically analyzed in relation to increasing cumulative gas extraction since 1963. Extrapolations from a fast-rising trend over 2001-2013 indicate that-under "business as usual"-around 2021 some 35 earthquakes with M ≥ 1.5 might occur annually, including four with M ≥ 2.5 (ten-fold stronger), and one with M ≥ 3.5 every 2.5 years. Given this uneasy prospect, annual gas extraction has been reduced from 54 bcm in 2013 to 24 bcm in 2017. This has significantly reduced earthquake activity, so far. However, when extraction is stabilized at 24 bcm per year for 2017-2021 (or 21.6 bcm, as judicially established in Nov. 2017), the annual number of earthquakes would gradually increase again, with an expected all-time maximum M ≈ 4.5. Further safety management may best follow distinct stages of seismic risk generation, with moderation of gas extraction and massive (but late and slow) building reinforcement as outstanding strategies. Officially, "acceptable risk" is mainly approached by quantification of risk (e.g., of fatal building collapse) for testing against national safety standards, but actual (local) risk estimation remains problematic. Additionally important are societal cost-benefit analysis, equity considerations, and precautionary restraint. Socially and psychologically, deliberate attempts are made to improve risk communication, reduce public anxiety, and restore people's confidence in responsible experts and policymakers.

Spatial Modeling to Identify Sociodemographic Predictors of Hydraulic Fracturing Wastewater Injection Wells in Ohio Census Block Groups

BACKGROUND

Hydraulically fractured wells produce 2-14 million liters of wastewater, which may contain toxic and radioactive compounds. The wastewater is predominantly disposed of using Class II injection wells.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to evaluate the relationship between sociodemographic characteristics and injection well locations in Ohio.

METHODS

Using state and federal data sources, we classified Ohio census block groups by presence of injection wells, number of hydraulically fractured wells, sociodemographic factors (median household income, % white, population density, % ≥high school education, median age, voter turnout), and geographic information (land area, water area, situated over shale). We modeled the odds of having at least one injection well within a block group with respect to all covariates using three multivariable models incorporating different spatial components to account for similarities in neighboring block groups.

RESULTS

In bivariate analyses, block groups with injection wells (n=156) compared with those without (n=9,049) had lower population density (71 vs. 2,210 people/mi2 or 27 vs. 854 people/km2), larger median area (43.5 vs. 1.35 km2), higher median age (42.8 vs. 40.2 y), and higher % white (98.1% vs. 92.1%). After adjustment using a spatial logistic regression model, the odds of a block group containing an injection well were 16% lower per $10,000 increase in median income [odds ratio(OR)=0.837; 95% credible interval (CI): 0.719, 0.961] and 97% lower per 1,000 people/mi2 (or per 386 people/km2) increase (OR=0.030; 95% CI=0.008, 0.072). Block groups on shale and those containing fewer hydraulically fractured wells were more likely to include an injection well. Percentage white, median age, % ≥high school education, and % voter turnout were not significant predictors of injection well presence.

CONCLUSION

In Ohio, injection wells were inversely associated with block groups' median incomes after adjusting for other sociodemographic and geographic variables. Research is needed to determine whether residents in census blocks with injection wells face increased risk of chemical exposures or adverse health outcomes. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2663.

Association between Oklahoma earthquakes and anxiety-related Google search episodes

BACKGROUND

Oklahoma has experienced a rise in seismicity since 2010, with many earthquakes induced by wastewater injection. While large single earthquakes have documented mental health repercussions, health implications of these new, frequent earthquakes remain unknown. We aimed to examine associations between Oklahoma earthquakes and statewide anxiety measured by Google queries.

METHODS

The U.S. Geologic Survey's Advanced National Seismic System Comprehensive Catalog supplied earthquake dates and magnitudes. We used the Google Health application programming interface to compile the proportion of weekly Oklahoma-based health-related search episodes for anxiety. A quasi-experimental time-series analysis from January 2010 to May 2017 evaluated monthly counts of earthquakes ≥ magnitude 4 (a level felt by most people) in relation to anxiety, controlling for US-wide anxiety search episodes and Oklahoma-specific health-related queries.

RESULTS

Oklahoma experienced an average of two (SD = 2) earthquakes ≥ magnitude 4 per month during the study period. For each additional earthquake ≥ magnitude 4, the proportion of Google search episodes for anxiety increased by 1.3% (95% confidence interval = 0.1%, 2.4%); 60% of this increase persisted for the following month. In months with 2 or more ≥ magnitude 4 earthquakes, the proportion of Google search episodes focused on anxiety increased by 5.8% (95% confidence interval = 2.3%, 9.3%). In a sub-analysis, Google search episodes for anxiety peaked about 3 weeks after ≥ magnitude 4 quakes.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that the recent increase in Oklahoma earthquakes has elicited a psychological response that may have implications for public health and regulatory policy.