Rapid fluctuations in sea level recorded at huon peninsula during the penultimate deglaciation

Oceanic forcing of penultimate deglacial and last interglacial sea-level rise

Sea-level histories during the two most recent deglacial-interglacial intervals show substantial differences^1-3 despite both periods undergoing similar changes in global mean temperature^4,5 and forcing from greenhouse gases⁶. Although the last interglaciation (LIG) experienced stronger boreal summer insolation forcing than the present interglaciation⁷, understanding why LIG global mean sea level may have been six to nine metres higher than today has proven particularly challenging². Extensive areas of polar ice sheets were grounded below sea level during both glacial and interglacial periods, with grounding lines and fringing ice shelves extending onto continental shelves⁸. This suggests that oceanic forcing by subsurface warming may also have contributed to ice-sheet loss^9-12 analogous to ongoing changes in the Antarctic^13,14 and Greenland¹⁵ ice sheets. Such forcing would have been especially effective during glacial periods, when the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) experienced large variations on millennial timescales¹⁶, with a reduction of the AMOC causing subsurface warming throughout much of the Atlantic basin^9,12,17. Here we show that greater subsurface warming induced by the longer period of reduced AMOC during the penultimate deglaciation can explain the more-rapid sea-level rise compared with the last deglaciation. This greater forcing also contributed to excess loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets during the LIG, causing global mean sea level to rise at least four metres above modern levels. When accounting for the combined influences of penultimate and LIG deglaciation on glacial isostatic adjustment, this excess loss of polar ice during the LIG can explain much of the relative sea level recorded by fossil coral reefs and speleothems at intermediate- and far-field sites.

The contribution of seed dispersers to tree species diversity in tropical rainforests

Tropical rainforests are known for their extreme biodiversity, posing a challenging problem in tropical ecology. Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain the diversity of tree species, yet our understanding of this phenomenon remains incomplete. Here, we consider the contribution of animal seed dispersers to the species diversity of trees. We built a multi-layer lattice model of trees whose animal seed dispersers are allowed to move only in restricted areas to disperse the tree seeds. We incorporated the effects of seed dispersers in the traditional theory of allopatric speciation on a geological time scale. We modified the lattice model to explicitly examine the coexistence of new tree species and the resulting high biodiversity. The results indicate that both the coexistence and diversified evolution of tree species can be explained by the introduction of animal seed dispersers.

Ice volume and sea level during the last interglacial

During the last interglacial period, ~125,000 years ago, sea level was at least several meters higher than at present, with substantial variability observed for peak sea level at geographically diverse sites. Speculation that the West Antarctic ice sheet collapsed during the last interglacial period has drawn particular interest to understanding climate and ice-sheet dynamics during this time interval. We provide an internally consistent database of coral U-Th ages to assess last interglacial sea-level observations in the context of isostatic modeling and stratigraphic evidence. These data indicate that global (eustatic) sea level peaked 5.5 to 9 meters above present sea level, requiring smaller ice sheets in both Greenland and Antarctica relative to today and indicating strong sea-level sensitivity to small changes in radiative forcing.

Probabilistic assessment of sea level during the last interglacial stage

With polar temperatures approximately 3-5 degrees C warmer than today, the last interglacial stage (approximately 125 kyr ago) serves as a partial analogue for 1-2 degrees C global warming scenarios. Geological records from several sites indicate that local sea levels during the last interglacial were higher than today, but because local sea levels differ from global sea level, accurately reconstructing past global sea level requires an integrated analysis of globally distributed data sets. Here we present an extensive compilation of local sea level indicators and a statistical approach for estimating global sea level, local sea levels, ice sheet volumes and their associated uncertainties. We find a 95% probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 m higher than today during the last interglacial; it is likely (67% probability) to have exceeded 8.0 m but is unlikely (33% probability) to have exceeded 9.4 m. When global sea level was close to its current level (>or=-10 m), the millennial average rate of global sea level rise is very likely to have exceeded 5.6 m kyr(-1) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.2 m kyr(-1). Our analysis extends previous last interglacial sea level studies by integrating literature observations within a probabilistic framework that accounts for the physics of sea level change. The results highlight the long-term vulnerability of ice sheets to even relatively low levels of sustained global warming.

Penultimate deglacial sea-level timing from uranium/thorium dating of Tahitian corals

The timing of sea-level change provides important constraints on the mechanisms driving Earth's climate between glacial and interglacial states. Fossil corals constrain the timing of past sea level by their suitability for dating and their growth position close to sea level. The coral-derived age for the last deglaciation is consistent with climate change forced by Northern Hemisphere summer insolation (NHI), but the timing of the penultimate deglaciation is more controversial. We found, by means of uranium/thorium dating of fossil corals, that sea level during the penultimate deglaciation had risen to ~85 meters below the present sea level by 137,000 years ago, and that it fluctuated on a millennial time scale during deglaciation. This indicates that the penultimate deglaciation occurred earlier with respect to NHI than the last deglacial, beginning when NHI was at a minimum.

Open-System Coral Ages Reveal Persistent Suborbital Sea-Level Cycles

Sea level is a sensitive index of global climate that has been linked to Earth's orbital variations, with a minimum periodicity of about 21,000 years. Although there is ample evidence for climate oscillations that are too frequent to be explained by orbital forcing, suborbital-frequency sea-level change has been difficult to resolve, primarily because of problems with uranium/thorium coral dating. Here we use a new approach that corrects coral ages for the frequently observed open-system behavior of uranium-series nuclides, substantially improving the resolution of sea-level reconstruction. This curve reveals persistent sea-level oscillations that are too frequent to be explained exclusively by orbital forcing.

Links between climate and sea levels for the past three million years

The oscillations between glacial and interglacial climate conditions over the past three million years have been characterized by a transfer of immense amounts of water between two of its largest reservoirs on Earth -- the ice sheets and the oceans. Since the latest of these oscillations, the Last Glacial Maximum (between about 30,000 and 19,000 years ago), approximately 50 million cubic kilometres of ice has melted from the land-based ice sheets, raising global sea level by approximately 130 metres. Such rapid changes in sea level are part of a complex pattern of interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets and solid earth, all of which have different response timescales. The trigger for the sea-level fluctuations most probably lies with changes in insolation, caused by astronomical forcing, but internal feedback cycles complicate the simple model of causes and effects.

Direct determination of the timing of sea level change during termination II

An outcrop within the last interglacial terrace on Barbados contains corals that grew during the penultimate deglaciation, or Termination II. We used combined 230Th and 231Pa dating to determine that they grew 135.8 +/- 0.8 thousand years ago, indicating that sea level was 18 +/- 3 meters below present sea level at the time. This suggests that sea level had risen to within 20% of its peak last-interglacial value by 136 thousand years ago, in conflict with Milankovitch theory predictions. Orbital forcing may have played a role in the deglaciation, as may have isostatic adjustments due to large ice sheets. Other corals in the same outcrop grew during oxygen isotope (delta18O) substage 6e, indicating that sea level was 38 +/- 5 meters below present sea level, about 168.0 thousand years ago. When compared to the delta18O signal in the benthic V19-30/V19-28 record at that time, the coral data extend to the previous glacial cycle the conclusion that deep-water temperatures were colder during glacial periods.

Covariation of carbon dioxide and temperature from the Vostok ice core after deuterium-excess correction

Ice-core measurements of carbon dioxide and the deuterium palaeothermometer reveal significant covariation of temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout the climate cycles of the past ice ages. This covariation provides compelling evidence that CO2 is an important forcing factor for climate. But this interpretation is challenged by some substantial mismatches of the CO2 and deuterium records, especially during the onset of the last glaciation, about 120 kyr ago. Here we incorporate measurements of deuterium excess from Vostok in the temperature reconstruction and show that much of the mismatch is an artefact caused by variations of climate in the water vapour source regions. Using a model that corrects for this effect, we derive a new estimate for the covariation of CO2 and temperature, of r2 = 0.89 for the past 150 kyr and r2 = 0.84 for the period 350-150 kyr ago. Given the complexity of the biogeochemical systems involved, this close relationship strongly supports the importance of carbon dioxide as a forcing factor of climate. Our results also suggest that the mechanisms responsible for the drawdown of CO2 may be more responsive to temperature than previously thought.

Sea level change through the last glacial cycle

Sea level change during the Quaternary is primarily a consequence of the cyclic growth and decay of ice sheets, resulting in a complex spatial and temporal pattern. Observations of this variability provide constraints on the timing, rates, and magnitudes of the changes in ice mass during a glacial cycle, as well as more limited information on the distribution of ice between the major ice sheets at any time. Observations of glacially induced sea level changes also provide information on the response of the mantle to surface loading on time scales of 10(3) to 10(5) years. Regional analyses indicate that the earth-response function is depth dependent as well as spatially variable. Comprehensive models of sea level change enable the migration of coastlines to be predicted during glacial cycles, including the anthropologically important period from about 60,000 to 20,000 years ago.

Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most potent source of interannual climate variability. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of greenhouse warming on ENSO strength and frequency has stimulated efforts to develop a better understanding of the sensitivity of ENSO to climate change. Here we use annually banded corals from Papua New Guinea to show that ENSO has existed for the past 130,000 years, operating even during "glacial" times of substantially reduced regional and global temperature and changed solar forcing. However, we also find that during the 20th century ENSO has been strong compared with ENSO of previous cool (glacial) and warm (interglacial) times. The observed pattern of change in amplitude may be due to the combined effects of ENSO dampening during cool glacial conditions and ENSO forcing by precessional orbital variations.

Orbital forcing of the marine isotope stage 9 interglacial

Milankovitch orbital forcing theory has been used to assign time scales to many paleoclimate records. However, the validity of this theory remains uncertain, and independent sea-level chronologies used to test its applicability have been restricted largely to the past approximately 135,000 years. Here, we report U-series ages for coral reefs formed on Henderson Island during sea-level high-stands occurring at approximately 630,000 and approximately 330,000 years ago. These data are consistent with the hypothesis that interglacial climates are forced by Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation centered at 65 degrees N latitude, as predicted by Milankovitch theory.

The 100,000-year ice-Age cycle identified and found to lag temperature, carbon dioxide, and orbital eccentricity

The deep-sea sediment oxygen isotopic composition (delta(18)O) record is dominated by a 100,000-year cyclicity that is universally interpreted as the main ice-age rhythm. Here, the ice volume component of this delta(18)O signal was extracted by using the record of delta(18)O in atmospheric oxygen trapped in Antarctic ice at Vostok, precisely orbitally tuned. The benthic marine delta(18)O record is heavily contaminated by the effect of deep-water temperature variability, but by using the Vostok record, the delta(18)O signals of ice volume, deep-water temperature, and additional processes affecting air delta(18)O (that is, a varying Dole effect) were separated. At the 100,000-year period, atmospheric carbon dioxide, Vostok air temperature, and deep-water temperature are in phase with orbital eccentricity, whereas ice volume lags these three variables. Hence, the 100,000-year cycle does not arise from ice sheet dynamics; instead, it is probably the response of the global carbon cycle that generates the eccentricity signal by causing changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration.

Evidence from U-Th dating against Northern Hemisphere forcing of the penultimate deglaciation

Milankovitch proposed that summer insolation at mid-latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere directly causes the ice-age climate cycles. This would imply that times of ice-sheet collapse should correspond to peaks in Northern Hemisphere June insolation. But the penultimate deglaciation has proved controversial because June insolation peaks 127 kyr ago whereas several records of past climate suggest that change may have occurred up to 15 kyr earlier. There is a clear signature of the penultimate deglaciation in marine oxygen-isotope records. But dating this event, which is significantly before the 14C age range, has not been possible. Here we date the penultimate deglaciation in a record from the Bahamas using a new U-Th isochron technique. After the necessary corrections for alpha-recoil mobility of 234U and 230Th and a small age correction for sediment mixing, the midpoint age for the penultimate deglaciation is determined to be 135 +/- 2.5 kyr ago. This age is consistent with some coral-based sea-level estimates, but it is difficult to reconcile with June Northern Hemisphere insolation as the trigger for the ice-age cycles. Potential alternative driving mechanisms for the ice-age cycles that are consistent with such an early date for the penultimate deglaciation are either the variability of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system or changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration controlled by a process in the Southern Hemisphere.

Coral record of equatorial sea-surface temperatures during the penultimate deglaciation at huon peninsula

Uplifted coral terraces at Huon Peninsula, Papua New Guinea, preserve a record of sea level, sea-surface temperature, and salinity from the penultimate deglaciation. Remnants have been found of a shallow-water reef that formed during a pause, similar to the Younger Dryas, in the penultimate deglaciation at 130,000 +/- 2000 years ago, when sea level was 60 to 80 meters lower than it is today. Porites coral, which grew during this period, has oxygen isotopic values and strontium/calcium ratios that indicate that sea-surface temperatures were much cooler (22 degrees +/- 2 degreesC) than either Last Interglacial or present-day tropical temperatures (29 degrees +/- 1 degreesC). These observations provide further evidence for a major cooling of the equatorial western Pacific followed by an extremely rapid rise in sea level during the latter stages of Termination II.