An assessment of an environmental gradient using coral geochemical records, Whitsunday Islands, Great Barrier Reef, Australia

Coral cores were collected along an environmental and water quality gradient through the Whitsunday Island group, Great Barrier Reef (Australia), for trace element and stable isotope analysis. The primary aim of the study was to examine if this gradient could be detected in coral records and, if so, whether the gradient has changed over time with changing land use in the adjacent river catchments. Y/Ca was the trace element ratio which varied spatially across the gradient, with concentrations progressively decreasing away from the river mouths. The Ba/Ca and Y/Ca ratios were the only indicators of change in the gradient through time, increasing shortly after European settlement. The Mn/Ca ratio responded to local disturbance related to the construction of tourism infrastructure. Nitrogen isotope ratios showed no apparent trend over time. This study highlights the importance of site selection when using coral records to record regional environmental signals.

The coral reef crisis: the critical importance of<350 ppm CO2

Temperature-induced mass coral bleaching causing mortality on a wide geographic scale started when atmospheric CO(2) levels exceeded approximately 320 ppm. When CO(2) levels reached approximately 340 ppm, sporadic but highly destructive mass bleaching occurred in most reefs world-wide, often associated with El Niño events. Recovery was dependent on the vulnerability of individual reef areas and on the reef's previous history and resilience. At today's level of approximately 387 ppm, allowing a lag-time of 10 years for sea temperatures to respond, most reefs world-wide are committed to an irreversible decline. Mass bleaching will in future become annual, departing from the 4 to 7 years return-time of El Niño events. Bleaching will be exacerbated by the effects of degraded water-quality and increased severe weather events. In addition, the progressive onset of ocean acidification will cause reduction of coral growth and retardation of the growth of high magnesium calcite-secreting coralline algae. If CO(2) levels are allowed to reach 450 ppm (due to occur by 2030-2040 at the current rates), reefs will be in rapid and terminal decline world-wide from multiple synergies arising from mass bleaching, ocean acidification, and other environmental impacts. Damage to shallow reef communities will become extensive with consequent reduction of biodiversity followed by extinctions. Reefs will cease to be large-scale nursery grounds for fish and will cease to have most of their current value to humanity. There will be knock-on effects to ecosystems associated with reefs, and to other pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Should CO(2) levels reach 600 ppm reefs will be eroding geological structures with populations of surviving biota restricted to refuges. Domino effects will follow, affecting many other marine ecosystems. This is likely to have been the path of great mass extinctions of the past, adding to the case that anthropogenic CO(2) emissions could trigger the Earth's sixth mass extinction.

Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs

The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

Variability in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation through a glacial-interglacial cycle

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most potent source of interannual climate variability. Uncertainty surrounding the impact of greenhouse warming on ENSO strength and frequency has stimulated efforts to develop a better understanding of the sensitivity of ENSO to climate change. Here we use annually banded corals from Papua New Guinea to show that ENSO has existed for the past 130,000 years, operating even during "glacial" times of substantially reduced regional and global temperature and changed solar forcing. However, we also find that during the 20th century ENSO has been strong compared with ENSO of previous cool (glacial) and warm (interglacial) times. The observed pattern of change in amplitude may be due to the combined effects of ENSO dampening during cool glacial conditions and ENSO forcing by precessional orbital variations.

Environmental controls on growth of the massive coral Porites

Annual density banding provided growth characteristics for 245 similar-sized, massive colonies of Porites from similar locations on 29 reefs from across the length and breadth of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia. Values obtained were density, extension rate, and calcification rate. Tissue thickness, the depth to which skeletons were occupied by tissue at the time of collection, was also measured. Extension rate, calcification rate, and tissue thickness were significantly greater at the top of colonies than at the sides. Extension rate and calcification rate decreased from north to south along the GBR (latitudinal range of approximately 9 degrees ) and were significantly and directly related to annual average sea surface temperature (SST; range approximately 25-27 degrees C). For each 1 degrees C rise in SST, average annual calcification increased by 0.39 g cm(-2) year(-1) and average annual extension increased by 3.1 mm year(-1) (c.f. average values of 1.63 g cm(-2) year(-1) and 12.9 mm year(-1), respectively). Density was inversely correlated with extension rate and increased with distance offshore. Data for massive Porites colonies from the GBR were extended though 20 degrees of latitude and an average annual SST range of 23-29 degrees C using published data for the Hawaiian Archipelago (Grigg, R.W., 1981. Coral reef development at high latitudes in Hawaii. Proc. 4th Int. Coral Reef Symp., Manila, Vol. 1, pp. 687-693; Grigg, R.W., 1997. Paleoceanography of coral reefs in the Hawaiian-Emperor Chain - revisited. Coral Reefs 16, S33-S38) and Phuket, Thailand (Scoffin. T.P., Tudhope. A.W., Brown. B.E., Chansang. H., Cheeney. R.F., 1992. Patterns and possible environmental controls of skeletogenesis of Porites lutea, South Thailand. Coral Reefs 11, 1-11). The response of calcification rate to temperature remained linear. Variation in annual average SST accounted for 84% of the variance. For each 1 degrees C rise in SST, average annual calcification increased by 0.33 g cm(-2) year(-1) and average annual extension increased by 3.1 mm year(-1) (c.f. average values of 1.50 g cm(-2) year(-1) and 11.6 mm year(-1), respectively). The sensitivity of calcification rate in Porites to SST, combined with observed 20th Century increases in SSTs, suggests that calcification rates may have already significantly increased along the GBR in response to global climate change.