The 100,000-year ice-Age cycle identified and found to lag temperature, carbon dioxide, and orbital eccentricity

Paleo-climatic control on recharge and fresh-salt groundwater distribution in the Red River delta plain, Vietnam

Paleo-climatic induced sedimentation controls present-day recharge and the fresh-salt groundwater distribution in Quaternary delta systems. During sea-level highstands, marine clays with saline pore water were deposited and are interbedded with aquifers of coarse-grained sandy fluvial and shallow marine deposits, laid down during lowstands. The low-permeable marine layers may inhibit recent recharge to deeper aquifers, and thereby limit sustainable use of these freshwater resources. This phenomenon has been investigated in the Red River delta plain, using geophysical borehole logging, transient electromagnetic soundings, groundwater chemistry, stable isotope analysis and 3H and 14C dating of groundwater. Results reveal that marine saline pore water is still present in the Holocene marine clays, implying that fresh water has not entered the clays since their deposition. Therefore, recharge within the delta plain is not occurring and the deeper aquifers are hydraulically disconnected from the upper sandy layers. Today, recharge only occurs from the hinterland. Recharge during the last glacial period has flushed saline pore water from Pleistocene marine clays, but these clays were again affected by saline water during the Holocene transgression. The use of the groundwater resources in the delta plain must be adjusted to the present recharge to be sustainable.

Path-dependence of the Plio-Pleistocene glacial/interglacial cycles

We find strong path dependence in the evolution of the Plio-Pleistocene glaciations using CLIMBER-2 Earth System Model simulations from the mid-Pliocene to modern preindustrial (3 My-0 My BP) driven by a gradual decrease in volcanic carbon dioxide outgassing and regolith removal from basal ice interaction. Path dependence and hysteresis are investigated by alternatively driving the model forward and backward in time. Initiating the model with preindustrial conditions and driving the model backward using time-reversed forcings, the increase in volcanic outgassing back-in-time (BIT) does not generate the high CO2 levels and relatively ice-free conditions of the late Pliocene seen in forward-in-time (FIT) simulations of the same model. This behavior appears to originate from nonlinearities and initial state dependence in the carbon cycle. A transition from low-amplitude sinusoidal obliquity (~41 ky) and precession (~23 ky) driven glacial/interglacial cycles to high-amplitude ~100 ky likely eccentricity-related sawtooth cycles seen between -1.25 My and -0.75 My BP (the Mid-Pleistocene transition or "MPT") in FIT simulations disappears in BIT integrations depending on the details of how the regolith removal process is treated. A transition toward depleted regolith and lowered atmospheric CO2 levels are both required to reproduce the MPT.

Natural ocean iron fertilization and climate variability over geological periods

Marine primary producers are largely dependent on and shape the Earth's climate, although their relationship with climate varies over space and time. The growth of phytoplankton and associated marine primary productivity in most of the modern global ocean is limited by the supply of nutrients, including the micronutrient iron. The addition of iron via episodic and frequent events drives the biological carbon pump and promotes the sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) into the ocean. However, the dependence between iron and marine primary producers adaptively changes over different geological periods due to the variation in global climate and environment. In this review, we examined the role and importance of iron in modulating marine primary production during some specific geological periods, that is, the Great Oxidation Event (GOE) during the Huronian glaciation, the Snowball Earth Event during the Cryogenian, the glacial-interglacial cycles during the Pleistocene, and the period from the last glacial maximum to the late Holocene. Only the change trend of iron bioavailability and climate in the glacial-interglacial cycles is consistent with the Iron Hypothesis. During the GOE and the Snowball Earth periods, although the bioavailability of iron in the ocean and the climate changed dramatically, the changing trend of many factors contradicted the Iron Hypothesis. By detangling the relationship among marine primary productivity, iron availability and oceanic environments in different geological periods, this review can offer some new insights for evaluating the impact of ocean iron fertilization on removing CO2 from the atmosphere and regulating the climate.

A punctuated equilibrium analysis of the climate evolution of cenozoic exhibits a hierarchy of abrupt transitions

The Earth's climate has experienced numerous critical transitions during its history, which have often been accompanied by massive and rapid changes in the biosphere. Such transitions are evidenced in various proxy records covering different timescales. The goal is then to identify, date, characterize, and rank past critical transitions in terms of importance, thus possibly yielding a more thorough perspective on climatic history. To illustrate such an approach, which is inspired by the punctuated equilibrium perspective on the theory of evolution, we have analyzed 2 key high-resolution datasets: the CENOGRID marine compilation (past 66 Myr), and North Atlantic U1308 record (past 3.3 Myr). By combining recurrence analysis of the individual time series with a multivariate representation of the system based on the theory of the quasi-potential, we identify the key abrupt transitions associated with major regime changes that separate various clusters of climate variability. This allows interpreting the time-evolution of the system as a trajectory taking place in a dynamical landscape, whose multiscale features describe a hierarchy of metastable states and associated tipping points.

Changes in North Atlantic deep-water oxygenation across the Middle Pleistocene Transition

The oxygen concentrations of oceanic deep-water and atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO₂) are intrinsically linked through organic carbon remineralization and storage as dissolved inorganic carbon in the deep sea. We present a high-resolution reconstruction of relative changes in oxygen concentration in the deep North Atlantic for the past 1.5 million years using the carbon isotope gradient between epifaunal and infaunal benthic foraminifera species as a proxy for paleo-oxygen. We report a significant (>40 micromole per kilogram) reduction in glacial Atlantic deep-water oxygenation at ~960 thousand to 900 thousand years ago that coincided with increased continental ice volume and a major change in ocean thermohaline circulation. Paleo-oxygen results support a scenario of decreasing deep-water oxygen concentrations, increased respired carbon storage, and a reduction in glacial pCO₂ across the Middle Pleistocene Transition.

Influence of late Pleistocene sea-level variations on midocean ridge spacing in faulting simulations and a global analysis of bathymetry

It is established that changes in sea level influence melt production at midocean ridges, but whether changes in melt production influence the pattern of bathymetry flanking midocean ridges has been debated on both theoretical and empirical grounds. To explore the dynamics that may give rise to a sea-level influence on bathymetry, we simulate abyssal hills using a faulting model with periodic variations in melt supply. For 100-ky melt-supply cycles, model results show that faults initiate during periods of amagmatic spreading at half-rates >2.3 cm/y and for 41-ky melt-supply cycles at half-rates >3.8 cm/y. Analysis of bathymetry across 17 midocean ridge regions shows characteristic wavelengths that closely align with the predictions from the faulting model. At intermediate-spreading ridges (half-rates >2.3 cm/y and [Formula: see text]3.8 cm/y) abyssal hill spacing increases with spreading rate at 0.99 km/(cm/y) or 99 ky (n [Formula: see text] 12; 95% CI, 87 to 110 ky), and at fast-spreading ridges (half-rates >3.8 cm/y) spacing increases at 38 ky (n [Formula: see text] 5; 95% CI, 29 to 47 ky). Including previously published analyses of abyssal-hill spacing gives a more precise alignment with the primary periods of Pleistocene sea-level variability. Furthermore, analysis of bathymetry from fast-spreading ridges shows a highly statistically significant spectral peak (P < 0.01) at the 1/(41-ky) period of Earth's variations in axial tilt. Faulting models and observations both support a linkage between glacially induced sea-level change and the fabric of the sea floor over the late Pleistocene.

Identifying Farming Strategies Associated With Achieving Global Agricultural Sustainability

Sustainable agroecosystems provide adequate food while supporting environmental and human wellbeing and are a key part of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Some strategies to promote sustainability include reducing inputs, substituting conventional crops with genetically modified (GM) alternatives, and using organic production. Here, we leveraged global databases covering 121 countries to determine which farming strategies—the amount of inputs per area (fertilizers, pesticides, and irrigation), GM crops, and percent agriculture in organic production—are most correlated with 12 sustainability metrics recognized by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. Using quantile regression, we found that countries with higher Human Development Indices (HDI) (including education, income, and lifespan), higher-income equality, lower food insecurity, and higher cereal yields had the most organic production and inputs. However, input-intensive strategies were associated with greater agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, countries with more GM crops were last on track to meeting the SDG of reduced inequalities. Using a longitudinal analysis spanning 2004–2018, we found that countries were generally decreasing inputs and increasing their share of agriculture in organic production. Also, in disentangling correlation vs. causation, we hypothesize that a country's development is more likely to drive changes in agricultural strategies than vice versa. Altogether, our correlative analyses suggest that countries with greater progress toward the SDGs of no poverty, zero hunger, good health and wellbeing, quality education, decent work, economic growth, and reduced inequalities had the highest production of organic agriculture and, to a lesser extent, intensive use of inputs.

An improved chronology for the Middle Stone Age at El Mnasra cave, Morocco

North African coastal Middle Stone Age (MSA) sites are key to study the development and expansion of early H. sapiens. El Mnasra cave on the Atlantic coast of Morocco (Témara region) is a crucial site associated with MSA archaeological materials considered advanced cognitive hallmarks of behavioural innovation, such as numerous Nassariidae perforated shells, hematite pigments, bones industry and coastal resources exploitation. We provide new trapped-charges dates (OSL and combined US-ESR ages). Our Bayesian modelling strengthens the new lithostratigraphic interpretation of the cave stratigraphic units (US) and we propose an updated chronostratigraphic model for the Middle Stone Age archaeo-sequence of El Mnasra Cave. We confirm a human presence between 124-104 ka, earlier than what the previous OSL and US-ESR data showed. Our time range intervals allowed us to also extend the age of the MSA occupations considerably to the MIS 4/3 (~62-30 ka), marked by the disappearance of the Nassariidae perforated shells. Outstandingly, our model pushed back the age of the largest record of Nassariidae perforated shells and placed the age of their use by the Aterian groups at El Mnasra from the MIS 5d-5b (~115-94 ka).

Three new extinct species from the endemic Philippine cloud rat radiation (Rodentia, Muridae, Phloeomyini)

The 18 extant members of the Tribe Phloeomyini, the “cloud rats,” constitute an endemic Philippine radiation of arboreal herbivores that range in size from ca. 18 g to 2.7 kg, most occurring in cloud forest above 1,200 m elevation. Although calibrated phylogenies indicate that the Phloeomyini is estimated to have begun diversifying within the Philippines by ca. 10–11 million years ago, no extinct fossil species have been described, severely limiting our understanding of this distinctive radiation. Our studies of fossil and subfossil small mammal assemblages from the lowland Callao Caves complex in NE Luzon, Philippines, have produced specimens of Phloeomyini that date from ca. 67,000 BP to the Late Holocene (ca. 4,000 to 2,000 BP). We identify three extinct species that we name as new members assigned to the genera Batomys, Carpomys, and Crateromys, distinguished from congeners by body size, distinctive dental and other morphological features, and occupancy of a habitat (lowland forest over limestone) that differs from the high-elevation mossy forest over volcanic soils occupied by their congeners. Batomys cagayanensis n. sp. is known only from two specimens from ca. 67,000 BP; Carpomys dakal n. sp. and Crateromys ballik n. sp. were present from ca. 67,000 BP to the Late Holocene. These add to the species richness and morphological diversity of this endemic Philippine radiation of large folivores, and show specifically that the lowland fauna of small mammals on Luzon was more diverse in the recent past than it is currently, and that Luzon recently supported five species of giant rodents (ca. 1 kg or more). All three occurred contemporaneously with Homo luzonensis, and two, the new Carpomys and Crateromys, persisted until the Late Holocene when multiple exotic mammal species, both domestic and invasive, were introduced to Luzon, and new cultural practices (such as making pottery) became evident, suggesting that modern humans played a role in their extinction.

Submarine Geomorphology of the Southwestern Sardinian Continental Shelf (Mediterranean Sea): Insights into the Last Glacial Maximum Sea-Level Changes and Related Environments

During the lowstand sea-level phase of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a large part of the current Mediterranean continental shelf emerged. Erosional and depositional processes shaped the coastal strips, while inland areas were affected by aeolian and fluvial processes. Evidence of both the lowstand phase and the subsequent phases of eustatic sea level rise can be observed on the continental shelf of Sardinia (Italy), including submerged palaeo-shorelines and landforms, and indicators of relict coastal palaeo-environments. This paper shows the results of a high-resolution survey on the continental shelf off San Pietro Island (southwestern Sardinia). Multisensor and multiscale data—obtained by means of seismic sparker, sub-bottom profiler chirp, multibeam, side scan sonar, diving, and uncrewed aerial vehicles—made it possible to reconstruct the morphological features shaped during the LGM at depths between 125 and 135 m. In particular, tectonic controlled palaeo-cliffs affected by landslides, the mouth of a deep palaeo-valley fossilized by marine sediments and a palaeo-lagoon containing a peri-littoral thanatocenosis (18,983 ± 268 cal BP) were detected. The Younger Dryas palaeo-shorelines were reconstructed, highlighted by a very well preserved beachrock. The coastal paleo-landscape with lagoon-barrier systems and retro-littoral dunes frequented by the Mesolithic populations was reconstructed.

Combined high- and low-latitude forcing of East Asian monsoon precipitation variability in the Pliocene warm period

East Asian monsoon variability in the Pliocene warm world has not been sufficiently studied because of the lack of direct records. We present a high-resolution precipitation record from Pliocene fluvial-lacustrine sequences in the Weihe Basin, Central China, a region sensitive to the East Asian monsoon. The record shows an abrupt monsoon shift at ~4.2 million years ago, interpreted as the result of high-latitude cooling, with an extratropical temperature decrease across a critical threshold. The precipitation time series exhibits a pronounced ~100-thousand year periodicity and the presence of precession and half-precession cycles, which suggest low-latitude forcing. The synchronous phase but mismatched amplitudes of the East Asian monsoon precipitation proxy and eccentricity suggest a nonlinear but sensitive precipitation response to temperature forcing in the Pliocene warm world. These observations highlight the role of high- and low-latitude forcing of East Asian monsoon variations on tectonic and orbital time scales.

Postglacial Colonization of Northern Coastal Habitat by Bottlenose Dolphins: A Marine Leading-Edge Expansion?

Oscillations in the Earth's temperature and the subsequent retreating and advancing of ice-sheets around the polar regions are thought to have played an important role in shaping the distribution and genetic structuring of contemporary high-latitude populations. After the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), retreating of the ice-sheets would have enabled early colonizers to rapidly occupy suitable niches to the exclusion of other conspecifics, thereby reducing genetic diversity at the leading-edge. Bottlenose dolphins (genus Tursiops) form distinct coastal and pelagic ecotypes, with finer-scale genetic structuring observed within each ecotype. We reconstruct the postglacial colonization of the Northeast Atlantic (NEA) by bottlenose dolphins using habitat modeling and phylogenetics. The AquaMaps model hindcasted suitable habitat for the LGM in the Atlantic lower latitude waters and parts of the Mediterranean Sea. The time-calibrated phylogeny, constructed with 86 complete mitochondrial genomes including 30 generated for this study and created using a multispecies coalescent model, suggests that the expansion to the available coastal habitat in the NEA happened via founder events starting ~15 000 years ago (95% highest posterior density interval: 4 900-26 400). The founders of the 2 distinct coastal NEA populations comprised as few as 2 maternal lineages that originated from the pelagic population. The low effective population size and genetic diversity estimated for the shared ancestral coastal population subsequent to divergence from the pelagic source population are consistent with leading-edge expansion. These findings highlight the legacy of the Late Pleistocene glacial cycles on the genetic structuring and diversity of contemporary populations.

Cenozoic sea-level and cryospheric evolution from deep-sea geochemical and continental margin records

Using Pacific benthic foraminiferal δ¹⁸O and Mg/Ca records, we derive a Cenozoic (66 Ma) global mean sea level (GMSL) estimate that records evolution from an ice-free Early Eocene to Quaternary bipolar ice sheets. These GMSL estimates are statistically similar to "backstripped" estimates from continental margins accounting for compaction, loading, and thermal subsidence. Peak warmth, elevated GMSL, high CO₂, and ice-free "Hothouse" conditions (56 to 48 Ma) were followed by "Cool Greenhouse" (48 to 34 Ma) ice sheets (10 to 30 m changes). Continental-scale ice sheets ("Icehouse") began ~34 Ma (>50 m changes), permanent East Antarctic ice sheets at 12.8 Ma, and bipolar glaciation at 2.5 Ma. The largest GMSL fall (27 to 20 ka; ~130 m) was followed by a >40 mm/yr rise (19 to 10 ka), a slowing (10 to 2 ka), and a stillstand until ~1900 CE, when rates began to rise. High long-term CO₂ caused warm climates and high sea levels, with sea-level variability dominated by periodic Milankovitch cycles.

Coherent response of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall to Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability over the last 2000 years

Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has a direct effect on the livelihoods of two billion people in the Indian-subcontinent. Yet, our understanding of the drivers of multi-decadal variability of the ISM is far from being complete. In this context, large-scale forcing of ISM rainfall variability with multi-decadal resolution over the last two millennia is investigated using new records of sea surface salinity (δ18Ow) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Higher δ18Ow values during the Dark Age Cold Period (1550 to 1250 years BP) and the Little Ice Age (700 to 200 years BP) are suggestive of reduced ISM rainfall, whereas lower δ18Ow values during the Medieval Warm Period (1200 to 800 years BP) and the major portion of the Roman Warm Period (1950 to 1550 years BP) indicate a wetter ISM. This variability in ISM rainfall appears to be modulated by the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) via changes in large-scale thermal contrast between the Asian land mass and the Indian Ocean, a relationship that is also identifiable in the observational data of the last century. Therefore, we suggest that inter-hemispheric scale interactions between such extra tropical forcing mechanisms and global warming are likely to be influential in determining future trends in ISM rainfall.

Enhancing (crop) plant photosynthesis by introducing novel genetic diversity

Although some elements of the photosynthetic light reactions might appear to be ideal, the overall efficiency of light conversion to biomass has not been optimized during evolution. Because crop plants are depleted of genetic diversity for photosynthesis, efforts to enhance its efficiency with respect to light conversion to yield must generate new variation. In principle, three sources of natural variation are available: (i) rare diversity within extant higher plant species, (ii) photosynthetic variants from algae, and (iii) reconstruction of no longer extant types of plant photosynthesis. Here, we argue for a novel approach that outsources crop photosynthesis to a cyanobacterium that is amenable to adaptive evolution. This system offers numerous advantages, including a short generation time, virtually unlimited population sizes and high mutation rates, together with a versatile toolbox for genetic manipulation. On such a synthetic bacterial platform, 10 000 years of (crop) plant evolution can be recapitulated within weeks. Limitations of this system arise from its unicellular nature, which cannot reproduce all aspects of crop photosynthesis. But successful establishment of such a bacterial host for crop photosynthesis promises not only to enhance the performance of eukaryotic photosynthesis but will also reveal novel facets of the molecular basis of photosynthetic flexibility.This article is part of the themed issue 'Enhancing photosynthesis in crop plants: targets for improvement'.

Symbolic use of marine shells and mineral pigments by Iberian Neandertals 115,000 years ago

Cueva de los Aviones (southeast Spain) is a site of the Neandertal-associated Middle Paleolithic of Europe. It has yielded ochred and perforated marine shells, red and yellow colorants, and shell containers that feature residues of complex pigmentatious mixtures. Similar finds from the Middle Stone Age of South Africa have been widely accepted as archaeological proxies for symbolic behavior. U-series dating of the flowstone capping the Cueva de los Aviones deposit shows that the symbolic finds made therein are 115,000 to 120,000 years old and predate the earliest known comparable evidence associated with modern humans by 20,000 to 40,000 years. Given our findings, it is possible that the roots of symbolic material culture may be found among the common ancestor of Neandertals and modern humans, more than half-a-million years ago.

Comparing Climate Sensitivity, Past and Present

Climate sensitivity represents the global mean temperature change caused by changes in the radiative balance of climate; it is studied for both present/future (actuo) and past (paleo) climate variations, with the former based on instrumental records and/or various types of model simulations. Paleo-estimates are often considered informative for assessments of actuo-climate change caused by anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, but this utility remains debated because of concerns about the impacts of uncertainties, assumptions, and incomplete knowledge about controlling mechanisms in the dynamic climate system, with its multiple interacting feedbacks and their potential dependence on the climate background state. This is exacerbated by the need to assess actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity over different timescales, with different drivers, and with different (data and/or model) limitations. Here, we visualize these impacts with idealized representations that graphically illustrate the nature of time-dependent actuo- and paleoclimate sensitivity estimates, evaluating the strengths, weaknesses, agreements, and differences of the two approaches. We also highlight priorities for future research to improve the use of paleo-estimates in evaluations of current climate change.

Oxygen Isotopes in Foraminifera: Overview and Historical Review

Foraminiferal tests are a common component of many marine sediments. The oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) of test calcite is frequently used to reconstruct aspects of their life environment. The δ18O depends mainly on the isotope ratio of the water it is precipitated from, the temperature of calcification, and, to a lesser extent, the carbonate ion concentration. Foraminifera and other organisms can potentially preserve their original isotope ratio for many millions of years, although diagenetic processes can alter the ratios. Work on oxygen isotope ratios of foraminifera was instrumental in the discovery of the orbital theory of the ice ages and continues to be widely used in the study of rapid climate change. Compilations of deep sea benthic foraminifer oxygen isotopes have revealed the long history of global climate change over the past 100 million years. Planktonic foraminifer oxygen isotopes are used to investigate the history of past sea surface temperatures, revealing the extent of past ‘greenhouse’ warming and global sea surface temperatures.

Sea-level records from the U.S. mid-Atlantic constrain Laurentide Ice Sheet extent during Marine Isotope Stage 3

The U.S. mid-Atlantic sea-level record is sensitive to the history of the Laurentide Ice Sheet as the coastline lies along the ice sheet's peripheral bulge. However, paleo sea-level markers on the present-day shoreline of Virginia and North Carolina dated to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, from 50 to 35 ka, are surprisingly high for this glacial interval, and remain unexplained by previous models of ice age adjustment or other local (for example, tectonic) effects. Here, we reconcile this sea-level record using a revised model of glacial isostatic adjustment characterized by a peak global mean sea level during MIS 3 of approximately −40 m, and far less ice volume within the eastern sector of the Laurentide Ice Sheet than traditional reconstructions for this interval. We conclude that the Laurentide Ice Sheet experienced a phase of very rapid growth in the 15 kyr leading into the Last Glacial Maximum, thus highlighting the potential of mid-field sea-level records to constrain areal extent of ice cover during glacial intervals with sparse geological observables.

Surprisingly high Pleistocene sea-level markers on the Virginia and North Carolina shoreline are inconsistent with models of Laurentide ice sheet volume during Marine Isotope Stage 3. Here, Pico et al. present a revised glacial isostatic adjustment model that enables them to reconcile these differences.

Radiocarbon evidence for enhanced respired carbon storage in the Atlantic at the Last Glacial Maximum

The influence of ocean circulation changes on atmospheric CO2 hinges primarily on the ability to alter the ocean interior's respired nutrient inventory. Here we investigate the Atlantic overturning circulation at the Last Glacial Maximum and its impact on respired carbon storage using radiocarbon and stable carbon isotope data from the Brazil and Iberian Margins. The data demonstrate the existence of a shallow well-ventilated northern-sourced cell overlying a poorly ventilated, predominantly southern-sourced cell at the Last Glacial Maximum. We also find that organic carbon remineralization rates in the deep Atlantic remained broadly similar to modern, but that ventilation ages in the southern-sourced overturning cell were significantly increased. Respired carbon storage in the deep Atlantic was therefore enhanced during the last glacial period, primarily due to an increase in the residence time of carbon in the deep ocean, rather than an increase in biological carbon export.

Antarctic Cenozoic climate history from sedimentary records: ANDRILL and beyond

Mounting evidence from models and geological data implies that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may behave in an unstable manner and retreat rapidly in response to a warming climate, which is a key factor motivating efforts to improve estimates of Antarctic ice volume contributions to future sea-level rise. Here, we review Antarctic cooling history since peak temperatures of the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (approx. 50 Ma) to provide a framework for future initiatives to recover sediment cores from subglacial lakes and sedimentary basins in Antarctica's continental interior. While the existing inventory of cores has yielded important insights into the biotic and climatic evolution of Antarctica, strata have numerous and often lengthy time breaks, providing a framework of 'snapshots' through time. Further cores, and more work on existing cores, are needed to reconcile Antarctic records with the more continuous 'far-field' records documenting the evolution of global ice volume and deep-sea temperature. To achieve this, we argue for an integrated portfolio of drilling and coring missions that encompasses existing methodologies using ship- and sea-ice-/ice-shelf-based drilling platforms as well as recently developed seafloor-based drilling and subglacial access systems. We conclude by reviewing key technological issues that will need to be overcome.

Hyperspectral detection of a subsurface CO2 leak in the presence of water stressed vegetation

Remote sensing of vegetation stress has been posed as a possible large area monitoring tool for surface CO₂ leakage from geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) sites since vegetation is adversely affected by elevated CO₂ levels in soil. However, the extent to which remote sensing could be used for CO₂ leak detection depends on the spectral separability of the plant stress signal caused by various factors, including elevated soil CO₂ and water stress. This distinction is crucial to determining the seasonality and appropriateness of remote GCS site monitoring. A greenhouse experiment tested the degree to which plants stressed by elevated soil CO₂ could be distinguished from plants that were water stressed. A randomized block design assigned Alfalfa plants (Medicago sativa) to one of four possible treatment groups: 1) a CO₂ injection group; 2) a water stress group; 3) an interaction group that was subjected to both water stress and CO₂ injection; or 4) a group that received adequate water and no CO₂ injection. Single date classification trees were developed to identify individual spectral bands that were significant in distinguishing between CO₂ and water stress agents, in addition to a random forest classifier that was used to further understand and validate predictive accuracies. Overall peak classification accuracy was 90% (Kappa of 0.87) for the classification tree analysis and 83% (Kappa of 0.77) for the random forest classifier, demonstrating that vegetation stressed from an underground CO₂ leak could be accurately discerned from healthy vegetation and areas of co-occurring water stressed vegetation at certain times. Plants appear to hit a stress threshold, however, that would render detection of a CO₂ leak unlikely during severe drought conditions. Our findings suggest that early detection of a CO₂ leak with an aerial or ground-based hyperspectral imaging system is possible and could be an important GCS monitoring tool.

Proton-transfer reaction dynamics and energetics in calcification and decalcification

CaCO3 -saturated saline waters at pH values below 8.5 are characterized by two stationary equilibrium states: reversible chemical calcification/decalcification associated with acid dissociation, Ca(2+) +HCO3 (-) ⇌CaCO3 +H(+) ; and reversible static physical precipitation/dissolution, Ca(2+) +CO3 (2-) ⇌CaCO3 . The former reversible reaction was determined using a strong base and acid titration. The saturation state described by the pH/PCO2 -independent solubility product, [Ca(2+) ][CO3 (2-) ], may not be observed at pH below 8.5 because [Ca(2+) ][CO3 (2-) ]/([Ca(2+) ][HCO3 (-) ]) ≪1. Since proton transfer dynamics controls all reversible acid dissociation reactions in saline waters, the concentrations of calcium ion and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) were expressed as a function of dual variables, pH and PCO2 . The negative impact of ocean acidification on marine calcifying organisms was confirmed by applying the experimental culture data of each PCO2 /pH-dependent coral polyp skeleton weight (Wskel) to the proton transfer idea. The skeleton formation of each coral polyp was performed in microspaces beneath its aboral ectoderm. This resulted in a decalcification of 14 weight %, a normalized CaCO3 saturation state Λ of 1.3 at PCO2 ≈400 ppm and pH ≈8.0, and serious decalcification of 45 % and Λ 2.5 at PCO2 ≈1000 ppm and pH ≈7.8.

Were Upper Pleistocene human/non-human predator occupations at the Témara caves (El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra, Morocco) influenced by climate change?

The influence of climate change on human settlements in coastal areas is a central question for archaeologists. This paper addresses this issue by focusing on the Témara region in Morocco. The study area was selected for two main reasons. First, it contains numerous caves with Upper Pleistocene deposits, which have yielded remains of anatomically modern humans in association with Aterian and Iberomaurusian artifacts. Second, these caves are currently located on the shore, thus this region is particularly sensitive to major climate change and sea level fluctuations. Diachronic taphonomic study of faunal remains from two sites in the region, El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra caves, shows alternating human/non-human predator occupations. The lower layers of El Mnasra Cave dating to Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS) 5 have yielded diverse ungulate remains with significant anthropogenic impact marks, together with numerous mollusk shells, Nassarius shell beads, hearths, lithics, some bone tools and used pigments. Faunal remains from the upper layers dating to OIS 4, 3 and 2 of El Harhoura 2 and El Mnasra caves, largely dominated by gazelles, provide evidence of carnivore activities, such as tooth marks, numerous semi-digested bones and coprolites alongside some anthropogenic signatures (cut marks and burnt bones). Non-human predators appear to be the main agents responsible for faunal modifications and accumulations. The 'non-intensive' nature of human occupation is confirmed by analyses of the lithic industry at El Harhoura 2. The 'intensive' human occupations date to OIS 5 and could have taken place during wet periods in connection with high sea levels, which allowed the exploitation of shellfish in this area. 'Non-intensive' human occupations generally correspond to arid periods and lower sea levels, during which the Témara area was further inland and may have been less attractive to humans.

Multilocus nuclear DNA markers reveal population structure and demography of Anopheles minimus

Utilization of multiple putatively neutral DNA markers for inferring evolutionary history of species population is considered to be the most robust approach. Molecular population genetic studies have been conducted in many species of Anopheles genus, but studies based on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data are still very scarce. Anopheles minimus is one of the principal malaria vectors of Southeast (SE) Asia including the Northeastern (NE) India. Although population genetic studies with mitochondrial genetic variation data have been utilized to infer phylogeography of the SE Asian populations of this species, limited information on the population structure and demography of Indian An. minimus is available. We herewith have developed multilocus nuclear genetic approach with SNP markers located in X chromosome of An. minimus in eight Indian and two SE Asian population samples (121 individual mosquitoes in total) to infer population history and test several hypotheses on the phylogeography of this species. While the Thai population sample of An. minimus presented the highest nucleotide diversity, majority of the Indian samples were also fairly diverse. In general, An. minimus populations were moderately substructured in the distribution range covering SE Asia and NE India, largely falling under three distinct genetic clusters. Moreover, demographic expansion events could be detected in the majority of the presently studied populations of An. minimus. Additional DNA sequencing of the mitochondrial COII region in a subset of the samples (40 individual mosquitoes) corroborated the existing hypothesis of Indian An. minimus falling under the earlier reported mitochondrial lineage B.

DNA barcoding works in practice but not in (neutral) theory

Background

DNA barcode differences within animal species are usually much less than differences among species, making it generally straightforward to match unknowns to a reference library. Here we aim to better understand the evolutionary mechanisms underlying this usual “barcode gap” pattern. We employ avian barcode libraries to test a central prediction of neutral theory, namely, intraspecific variation equals 2 Nµ, where N is population size and µ is mutations per site per generation. Birds are uniquely suited for this task: they have the best-known species limits, are well represented in barcode libraries, and, most critically, are the only large group with documented census population sizes. In addition, we ask if mitochondrial molecular clock measurements conform to neutral theory prediction of clock rate equals µ.

Results

Intraspecific COI barcode variation was uniformly low regardless of census population size (n = 142 species in 15 families). Apparent outliers reflected lumping of reproductively isolated populations or hybrid lineages. Re-analysis of a published survey of cytochrome b variation in diverse birds (n = 93 species in 39 families) further confirmed uniformly low intraspecific variation. Hybridization/gene flow among species/populations was the main limitation to DNA barcode identification.

Conclusions/Significance

To our knowledge, this is the first large study of animal mitochondrial diversity using actual census population sizes and the first to test outliers for population structure. Our finding of universally low intraspecific variation contradicts a central prediction of neutral theory and is not readily accounted for by commonly proposed ad hoc modifications. We argue that the weight of evidence–low intraspecific variation and the molecular clock–indicates neutral evolution plays a minor role in mitochondrial sequence evolution. As an alternate paradigm consistent with empirical data, we propose extreme purifying selection, including at synonymous sites, limits variation within species and continuous adaptive selection drives the molecular clock.

Hydroclimate of the western Indo-Pacific Warm Pool during the past 24,000 years

The Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) is a key site for the global hydrologic cycle, and modern observations indicate that both the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation exert strong influence on its regional hydrologic characteristics. Detailed insight into the natural range of IPWP dynamics and underlying climate mechanisms is, however, limited by the spatial and temporal coverage of climate data. In particular, long-term (multimillennial) precipitation patterns of the western IPWP, a key location for IOZM dynamics, are poorly understood. To help rectify this, we have reconstructed rainfall changes over Northwest Sumatra (western IPWP, Indian Ocean) throughout the past 24,000 y based on the stable hydrogen and carbon isotopic compositions (δD and δ(13)C, respectively) of terrestrial plant waxes. As a general feature of western IPWP hydrology, our data suggest similar rainfall amounts during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene, contradicting previous claims that precipitation increased across the IPWP in response to deglacial changes in sea level and/or the position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. We attribute this discrepancy to regional differences in topography and different responses to glacioeustatically forced changes in coastline position within the continental IPWP. During the Holocene, our data indicate considerable variations in rainfall amount. Comparison of our isotope time series to paleoclimate records from the Indian Ocean realm reveals previously unrecognized fluctuations of the Indian Ocean precipitation dipole during the Holocene, indicating that oscillations of the IOZM mean state have been a constituent of western IPWP rainfall over the past ten thousand years.

A reversal of fortunes: climate change 'winners' and 'losers' in Antarctic Peninsula penguins

Climate change is a major threat to global biodiversity. Antarctic ecosystems are no exception. Investigating past species responses to climatic events can distinguish natural from anthropogenic impacts. Climate change produces ‘winners’, species that benefit from these events and ‘losers’, species that decline or become extinct. Using molecular techniques, we assess the demographic history and population structure of Pygoscelis penguins in the Scotia Arc related to climate warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). All three pygoscelid penguins responded positively to post-LGM warming by expanding from glacial refugia, with those breeding at higher latitudes expanding most. Northern (Pygoscelis papua papua) and Southern (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) gentoo sub-species likely diverged during the LGM. Comparing historical responses with the literature on current trends, we see Southern gentoo penguins are responding to current warming as they did during post-LGM warming, expanding their range southwards. Conversely, Adélie and chinstrap penguins are experiencing a ‘reversal of fortunes’ as they are now declining in the Antarctic Peninsula, the opposite of their response to post-LGM warming. This suggests current climate warming has decoupled historic population responses in the Antarctic Peninsula, favoring generalist gentoo penguins as climate change ‘winners’, while Adélie and chinstrap penguins have become climate change ‘losers’.

Insolation-driven 100,000-year glacial cycles and hysteresis of ice-sheet volume

The growth and reduction of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets over the past million years is dominated by an approximately 100,000-year periodicity and a sawtooth pattern (gradual growth and fast termination). Milankovitch theory proposes that summer insolation at high northern latitudes drives the glacial cycles, and statistical tests have demonstrated that the glacial cycles are indeed linked to eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. Yet insolation alone cannot explain the strong 100,000-year cycle, suggesting that internal climatic feedbacks may also be at work. Earlier conceptual models, for example, showed that glacial terminations are associated with the build-up of Northern Hemisphere 'excess ice', but the physical mechanisms underpinning the 100,000-year cycle remain unclear. Here we show, using comprehensive climate and ice-sheet models, that insolation and internal feedbacks between the climate, the ice sheets and the lithosphere-asthenosphere system explain the 100,000-year periodicity. The responses of equilibrium states of ice sheets to summer insolation show hysteresis, with the shape and position of the hysteresis loop playing a key part in determining the periodicities of glacial cycles. The hysteresis loop of the North American ice sheet is such that after inception of the ice sheet, its mass balance remains mostly positive through several precession cycles, whose amplitudes decrease towards an eccentricity minimum. The larger the ice sheet grows and extends towards lower latitudes, the smaller is the insolation required to make the mass balance negative. Therefore, once a large ice sheet is established, a moderate increase in insolation is sufficient to trigger a negative mass balance, leading to an almost complete retreat of the ice sheet within several thousand years. This fast retreat is governed mainly by rapid ablation due to the lowered surface elevation resulting from delayed isostatic rebound, which is the lithosphere-asthenosphere response. Carbon dioxide is involved, but is not determinative, in the evolution of the 100,000-year glacial cycles.

Delayed build-up of Arctic ice sheets during 400,000-year minima in insolation variability

Knowledge of the past variability of climate at high northern latitudes during astronomical analogues of the present interglacial may help to inform our understanding of future climate change. Unfortunately, long-term continuous records of ice-sheet variability in the Northern Hemisphere only are scarce because records of benthic (18)O content represent an integrated signal of changes in ice volume in both polar regions. However, variations in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets influence the Siberian High (an atmospheric pressure system), so variations in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)--as recorded in the aeolian dust deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau--can serve as a useful proxy of Arctic climate variability before the ice-core record begins. Here we present an EAWM proxy record using grain-size variations in two parallel loess sections representative of sequences across the whole of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 900,000 years. The results show that during periods of low eccentricity and precessional variability at approximately 400,000-year intervals, the grain-size-inferred intensity of the EAWM remains weak for up to 20,000 years after the end of the interglacial episode of high summer monsoon activity and strong pedogenesis. In contrast, there is a rapid increase in the EAWM after the end of most other interglacials. We conclude that, for both the 400,000-year interglacials, the weak EAWM winds maintain a mild, non-glacial climate at high northern latitudes for much longer than expected from the conventional loess and marine oxygen isotope records. During these times, the less-severe summer insolation minima at 65° N (ref. 4) would have suppressed ice and snow accumulation, leading to a weak Siberian High and, consequently, weak EAWM winds.

Delayed build-up of Arctic ice sheets during 400,000-year minima in insolation variability

Knowledge of the past variability of climate at high northern latitudes during astronomical analogues of the present interglacial may help to inform our understanding of future climate change. Unfortunately, long-term continuous records of ice-sheet variability in the Northern Hemisphere only are scarce because records of benthic (18)O content represent an integrated signal of changes in ice volume in both polar regions. However, variations in Northern Hemisphere ice sheets influence the Siberian High (an atmospheric pressure system), so variations in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)--as recorded in the aeolian dust deposits on the Chinese Loess Plateau--can serve as a useful proxy of Arctic climate variability before the ice-core record begins. Here we present an EAWM proxy record using grain-size variations in two parallel loess sections representative of sequences across the whole of the Chinese Loess Plateau over the past 900,000 years. The results show that during periods of low eccentricity and precessional variability at approximately 400,000-year intervals, the grain-size-inferred intensity of the EAWM remains weak for up to 20,000 years after the end of the interglacial episode of high summer monsoon activity and strong pedogenesis. In contrast, there is a rapid increase in the EAWM after the end of most other interglacials. We conclude that, for both the 400,000-year interglacials, the weak EAWM winds maintain a mild, non-glacial climate at high northern latitudes for much longer than expected from the conventional loess and marine oxygen isotope records. During these times, the less-severe summer insolation minima at 65° N (ref. 4) would have suppressed ice and snow accumulation, leading to a weak Siberian High and, consequently, weak EAWM winds.

Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation

The covariation of carbon dioxide (CO(2)) concentration and temperature in Antarctic ice-core records suggests a close link between CO(2) and climate during the Pleistocene ice ages. The role and relative importance of CO(2) in producing these climate changes remains unclear, however, in part because the ice-core deuterium record reflects local rather than global temperature. Here we construct a record of global surface temperature from 80 proxy records and show that temperature is correlated with and generally lags CO(2) during the last (that is, the most recent) deglaciation. Differences between the respective temperature changes of the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere parallel variations in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation recorded in marine sediments. These observations, together with transient global climate model simulations, support the conclusion that an antiphased hemispheric temperature response to ocean circulation changes superimposed on globally in-phase warming driven by increasing CO(2) concentrations is an explanation for much of the temperature change at the end of the most recent ice age.

Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness

We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings.

Tipping points in open systems: bifurcation, noise-induced and rate-dependent examples in the climate system

Tipping points associated with bifurcations (B-tipping) or induced by noise (N-tipping) are recognized mechanisms that may potentially lead to sudden climate change. We focus here on a novel class of tipping points, where a sufficiently rapid change to an input or parameter of a system may cause the system to 'tip' or move away from a branch of attractors. Such rate-dependent tipping, or R-tipping, need not be associated with either bifurcations or noise. We present an example of all three types of tipping in a simple global energy balance model of the climate system, illustrating the possibility of dangerous rates of change even in the absence of noise and of bifurcations in the underlying quasi-static system.

Tropical ocean temperatures over the past 3.5 million years

Determining the timing and amplitude of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) change is an important part of solving the puzzle of the Plio-Pleistocene ice ages. Alkenone-based tropical SST records from the major ocean basins show coherent glacial-interglacial temperature changes of 1 degrees to 3 degrees C that align with (but slightly lead) global changes in ice volume and deep ocean temperature over the past 3.5 million years. Tropical temperatures became tightly coupled with benthic delta18O and orbital forcing after 2.7 million years. We interpret the similarity of tropical SST changes, in dynamically dissimilar regions, to reflect "top-down" forcing through the atmosphere. The inception of a strong carbon dioxide-greenhouse gas feedback and amplification of orbital forcing at approximately 2.7 million years ago connected the fate of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets with global ocean temperatures since that time.

Ice age terminations

230Th-dated oxygen isotope records of stalagmites from Sanbao Cave, China, characterize Asian Monsoon (AM) precipitation through the ends of the third- and fourthmost recent ice ages. As a result, AM records for the past four glacial terminations can now be precisely correlated with those from ice cores and marine sediments, establishing the timing and sequence of major events. In all four cases, observations are consistent with a classic Northern Hemisphere summer insolation intensity trigger for an initial retreat of northern ice sheets. Meltwater and icebergs entering the North Atlantic alter oceanic and atmospheric circulation and associated fluxes of heat and carbon, causing increases in atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperatures that drive the termination in the Southern Hemisphere. Increasing CO2 and summer insolation drive recession of northern ice sheets, with probable positive feedbacks between sea level and CO2.