Ecology. Species-area relations in tropical forests

A persistent influence of supernovae on biodiversity over the Phanerozoic

It is an open question what has constrained macroevolutionary changes in marine animal diversity on the time scale of the Phanerozoic. Here, we will show that supernovae appear to have significantly influenced the biodiversity of life. After normalizing diversity curves of major animal marine genera by the changes in the area of shallow marine margins, a close correlation between supernovae frequency and biodiversity is obtained. The interpretation is that supernovae influence Earth's climate, which controls the ocean and atmospheric circulation of nutrients. With this, supernovae influence ocean bioproductivity and are speculated to affect genera-level diversity. The implication is a surprisingly influential role of stellar processes on evolution.

Infestation of chigger mites on Chinese mole shrew, Anourosorex squamipes, in Southwest China and ecological analysis

The Chinese mole shrew, Anourosorex squamipes Milne-Edwards, 1872, is a common species of insectivorous mammal in Southwest China. Based on field investigations between 2001 and 2019, the present study reports the infestation of chiggers (larvae of chigger mites) on the shrew in Southwest China and certain ecology parameters for the first time. A total of 3169 chiggers were collected from 1694 A. squamipes and they were identified into 72 species and 10 genera in the family Trombiculidae. The overall infestation prevalence (P_m), mean abundance (MA) and mean intensity (MI) of A. squamipes with chiggers reached 11.1%, 1.87 and 16.86, respectively. The species diversity, species composition and infestation of chiggers on A. squamipes fluctuated in different environments (latitudes, altitudes, habitats and landscapes) and on different sexes and ages of the shrew hosts with high heterogeneity and low species similarity. In the established linear regression equation (M* = 0.173 + 1.054 M) for dominant mite Leptotrombidium densipunctatum, both the α and β values (α = 0.173, β = 1.054) exceeded the boundary values (F = 4.67, p < 0.05), and therefore the spatial distribution pattern of this mite was determined as an aggregated distribution among different individuals of shrew hosts. The species abundance distribution of the chigger community on A. squamipes conformed to the lognormal distribution, and its curve showed a gradually descending tendency from the rare mite species to the dominant mite species. The curve tendency of species-sample relationship implies that more species of chiggers would be found if the host samples infinitely keep increasing.

Forecasting unprecedented ecological fluctuations

Forecasting 'Black Swan' events in ecosystems is an important but challenging task. Many ecosystems display aperiodic fluctuations in species abundance spanning orders of magnitude in scale, which have vast environmental and economic impact. Empirical evidence and theoretical analyses suggest that these dynamics are in a regime where system nonlinearities limit accurate forecasting of unprecedented events due to poor extrapolation of historical data to unsampled states. Leveraging increasingly available long-term high-frequency ecological tracking data, we analyze multiple natural and experimental ecosystems (marine plankton, intertidal mollusks, and deciduous forest), and recover hidden linearity embedded in universal 'scaling laws' of species dynamics. We then develop a method using these scaling laws to reduce data dependence in ecological forecasting and accurately predict extreme events beyond the span of historical observations in diverse ecosystems.

Species distributions and area relationships

The well-known species-area relationship is one of many scaling laws, or allometries, in ecology and biology that have received much attention over the years. We present a new derivation of this relationship based on Yule׳s theory of evolution of species. Using definitions of mutation rates, our analysis yields species-area exponents that are in close agreement with previously observed values.

Potential effects of ongoing and proposed hydropower development on terrestrial biological diversity in the Indian Himalaya

Indian Himalayan basins are earmarked for widespread dam building, but aggregate effects of these dams on terrestrial ecosystems are unknown. We mapped distribution of 292 dams (under construction and proposed) and projected effects of these dams on terrestrial ecosystems under different scenarios of land-cover loss. We analyzed land-cover data of the Himalayan valleys, where dams are located. We estimated dam density on fifth- through seventh-order rivers and compared these estimates with current global figures. We used a species-area relation model (SAR) to predict short- and long-term species extinctions driven by deforestation. We used scatter plots and correlation studies to analyze distribution patterns of species and dams and to reveal potential overlap between species-rich areas and dam sites. We investigated effects of disturbance on community structure of undisturbed forests. Nearly 90% of Indian Himalayan valleys would be affected by dam building and 27% of these dams would affect dense forests. Our model projected that 54,117 ha of forests would be submerged and 114,361 ha would be damaged by dam-related activities. A dam density of 0.3247/1000 km(2) would be nearly 62 times greater than current average global figures; the average of 1 dam for every 32 km of river channel would be 1.5 times higher than figures reported for U.S. rivers. Our results show that most dams would be located in species-rich areas of the Himalaya. The SAR model projected that by 2025, deforestation due to dam building would likely result in extinction of 22 angiosperm and 7 vertebrate taxa. Disturbance due to dam building would likely reduce tree species richness by 35%, tree density by 42%, and tree basal cover by 30% in dense forests. These results, combined with relatively weak national environmental impact assessment and implementation, point toward significant loss of species if all proposed dams in the Indian Himalaya are constructed.

The effects of landscape variables on the species-area relationship during late-stage habitat fragmentation

Few studies have focused explicitly on the later stages of the fragmentation process, or “late-stage fragmentation”, during which habitat area and patch number decrease simultaneously. This lack of attention is despite the fact that many of the anthropogenically fragmented habitats around the world are, or soon will be, in late-stage fragmentation. Understanding the ecological processes and patterns that occur in late-stage fragmentation is critical to protect the species richness in these fragments. We investigated plant species composition on 152 islands in the Thousand Island Lake, China. A random sampling method was used to create simulated fragmented landscapes with different total habitat areas and numbers of patches mimicking the process of late-stage fragmentation. The response of the landscape-scale species-area relationship (LSAR) to fragmentation per se was investigated, and the contribution of inter-specific differences in the responses to late-stage fragmentation was tested. We found that the loss of species at small areas was compensated for by the effects of fragmentation per se, i.e., there were weak area effects on species richness in landscapes due to many patches with irregular shapes and high variation in size. The study also illustrated the importance of inter-specific differences for responses to fragmentation in that the LSARs of rare and common species were differently influenced by the effects of fragmentation per se. In conclusion, our analyses at the landscape scale demonstrate the significant influences of fragmentation per se on area effects and the importance of inter-specific differences for responses to fragmentation in late-stage fragmentation. These findings add to our understanding of the effects of habitat fragmentation on species diversity.

The relationship between genus richness and geographic area in Late Cretaceous marine biotas: epicontinental sea versus open-ocean-facing settings

For present-day biotas, close relationships have been documented between the number of species in a given region and the area of the region. To date, however, there have been only limited studies of these relationships in the geologic record, particularly for ancient marine biotas. The recent development of large-scale marine paleontological databases, in conjunction with enhanced geographical mapping tools, now allow for their investigation. At the same time, there has been renewed interest in comparing the environmental and paleobiological properties of two broad-scale marine settings: epicontinental seas, broad expanses of shallow water covering continental areas, and open-ocean-facing settings, shallow shelves and coastlines that rim ocean basins. Recent studies indicate that spatial distributions of taxa and the kinetics of taxon origination and extinction may have differed in these two settings. Against this backdrop, we analyze regional Genus-Area Relationships (GARs) of Late Cretaceous marine invertebrates in epicontinental sea and open-ocean settings using data from the Paleobiology Database. We present a new method for assessing GARs that is particularly appropriate for fossil data when the geographic distribution of these data is patchy and uneven. Results demonstrate clear relationships between genus richness and area for regions worldwide, but indicate that as area increases, genus richness increases more per unit area in epicontinental seas than in open-ocean settings. This difference implies a greater degree of compositional heterogeneity as a function of geographic area in epicontinental sea settings, a finding that is consistent with the emerging understanding of physical differences in the nature of water masses between the two marine settings.

Urban scaling and its deviations: revealing the structure of wealth, innovation and crime across cities

With urban population increasing dramatically worldwide, cities are playing an increasingly critical role in human societies and the sustainability of the planet. An obstacle to effective policy is the lack of meaningful urban metrics based on a quantitative understanding of cities. Typically, linear per capita indicators are used to characterize and rank cities. However, these implicitly ignore the fundamental role of nonlinear agglomeration integral to the life history of cities. As such, per capita indicators conflate general nonlinear effects, common to all cities, with local dynamics, specific to each city, failing to provide direct measures of the impact of local events and policy. Agglomeration nonlinearities are explicitly manifested by the superlinear power law scaling of most urban socioeconomic indicators with population size, all with similar exponents (1.15). As a result larger cities are disproportionally the centers of innovation, wealth and crime, all to approximately the same degree. We use these general urban laws to develop new urban metrics that disentangle dynamics at different scales and provide true measures of local urban performance. New rankings of cities and a novel and simpler perspective on urban systems emerge. We find that local urban dynamics display long-term memory, so cities under or outperforming their size expectation maintain such (dis)advantage for decades. Spatiotemporal correlation analyses reveal a novel functional taxonomy of U.S. metropolitan areas that is generally not organized geographically but based instead on common local economic models, innovation strategies and patterns of crime.

Quantifying the extent of North American mammal extinction relative to the pre-anthropogenic baseline

Earth has experienced five major extinction events in the past 450 million years. Many scientists suggest we are now witnessing a sixth, driven by human impacts. However, it has been difficult to quantify the real extent of the current extinction episode, either for a given taxonomic group at the continental scale or for the worldwide biota, largely because comparisons of pre-anthropogenic and anthropogenic biodiversity baselines have been unavailable. Here, we compute those baselines for mammals of temperate North America, using a sampling-standardized rich fossil record to reconstruct species-area relationships for a series of time slices ranging from 30 million to 500 years ago. We show that shortly after humans first arrived in North America, mammalian diversity dropped to become at least 15%–42% too low compared to the “normal” diversity baseline that had existed for millions of years. While the Holocene reduction in North American mammal diversity has long been recognized qualitatively, our results provide a quantitative measure that clarifies how significant the diversity reduction actually was. If mass extinctions are defined as loss of at least 75% of species on a global scale, our data suggest that North American mammals had already progressed one-fifth to more than halfway (depending on biogeographic province) towards that benchmark, even before industrialized society began to affect them. Data currently are not available to make similar quantitative estimates for other continents, but qualitative declines in Holocene mammal diversity are also widely recognized in South America, Eurasia, and Australia. Extending our methodology to mammals in these areas, as well as to other taxa where possible, would provide a reasonable way to assess the magnitude of global extinction, the biodiversity impact of extinctions of currently threatened species, and the efficacy of conservation efforts into the future.

Predicting declines in avian species richness under nonrandom patterns of habitat loss in a neotropical landscape

One of the key concerns in conservation is to document and predict the effects of habitat loss on species richness. To do this, the species-area relationship (SAR) is frequently used. That relationship assumes random patterns of habitat loss and species distributions. In nature, however, species distribution patterns are usually nonrandom, influenced by biotic and abiotic factors. Likewise, socioeconomic and environmental factors influence habitat loss and are not randomly distributed across landscapes. We used a recently developed SAR model that accounts for nonrandomness to predict rates of bird species loss in fragmented forests of the Panama Canal region, an area that was historically covered in forest but now has 53% forest cover. Predicted species loss was higher than that predicted by the standard SAR. Furthermore, a species loss threshold was evident when remaining forest cover declined by 25%. This level of forest cover corresponds to 40% of the historical forest cover, and our model predicts rapid species loss past that threshold. This study illustrates the importance of considering patterns of species distributions and realistic habitat loss scenarios to develop better estimates of losses in species richness. Forecasts of tropical biodiversity loss generated from simple species-area relationships may underestimate actual losses because nonrandom patterns of species distributions and habitat loss are probably not unique to the Panama Canal region.

Scaling in ecosystems and the linkage of macroecological laws

Scaling provides an elegant framework for understanding power-law behavior and deducing relationships between critical exponents. We demonstrate that scaling theory can be generalized to develop a framework for the analysis of diverse empirical macroecological relationships traditionally treated as independent. Our mathematical arguments predict links between the species-area relationship, the relative species abundance and community size spectra in excellent accord with empirical data.

Predicting the effects of habitat homogenization on marine biodiversity

Seafloor habitats throughout the world's oceans are being homogenized by physical disturbance. Even though seafloor sediments are commonly considered to be simple and unstructured ecosystems, the negative impacts of habitat homogenization are widespread because resident organisms create much of their habitat's structure. We combine the insight gained from remote sensing of seafloor habitats with recently developed analytical techniques to estimate species richness and assess the potential for change with habitat homogenization. Using habitat-dependent species-area relationships we show that realistic scenarios of habitat homogenization predict biodiversity losses when biogenic habitats in soft sediments are homogenized. We develop a simple model that highlights the degree to which the reductions in the number of species and functional diversity are related to the distribution across habitats of habitat-specific and generalist species. Our results suggest that, by using habitat-dependent species-area relationships, we can better predict variation in biodiversity across seafloor landscapes and contribute to improved management and conservation.

On the origin and robustness of power-law species-area relationships in ecology

We present an explanation for the widely reported power-law species-area relationship (SAR), which relates the area occupied by a biome to the number of species that it supports. We argue that power-law SARs are a robust consequence of a skewed species abundance distribution resembling a lognormal with higher rarity, together with the observation that individuals of a given species tend to cluster. We show that the precise form of the SAR transcends the specific details of organism interactions, enabling us to characterize its broad trends across taxa.

Climate change, species-area curves and the extinction crisis

An article published in the journal Nature in January 2004-in which an international team of biologists predicted that climate change would, by 2050, doom 15-37% of the earth's species to extinction-attracted unprecedented, worldwide media attention. The predictions conflict with the conventional wisdom that habitat change and modification are the most important causes of current and future extinctions. The new extinction projections come from applying a well-known ecological pattern, the species-area relationship (SAR), to data on the current distributions and climatic requirements of 1103 species. Here, I examine the scientific basis to the claims made in the Nature article. I first highlight the potential and pitfalls of using the SAR to predict extinctions in general. I then consider the additional complications that arise when applying SAR methods specifically to climate change. I assess the extent to which these issues call into question predictions of extinctions from climate change relative to other human impacts, and highlight a danger that conservation resources will be directed away from attempts to slow and mitigate the continuing effects of habitat destruction and degradation, particularly in the tropics. I suggest that the most useful contributions of ecologists over the coming decades will be in partitioning likely extinctions among interacting causes and identifying the practical means to slow the rate of species loss.

Observations on related ecological exponents

We observe a relationship among three independently derived power laws in ecology: (i) total number of species versus area, (ii) species frequency versus species length, and (iii) maximal body size versus area. Aside from showing how these historically disparate phenomena are connected, we show how recent empirical results relating the maximal body size of top terrestrial vertebrates to the square root of land area conform to a prior theoretical expectation given by two of the above power laws. Of particular interest is the observation that the exponent relating species length to species frequency suggests a dimension for niche space for terrestrial vertebrate assemblages of D approximately 3/2. This value, along with power law for maximal body size, versus area, gives rise to the canonical species area exponent z approximately 1/4.

Circadian rhythm formation in plant seedling: global synchronization and bifurcation as a coupled nonlinear oscillator system

Circadian rhythm formation is studied in seedlings after germination measuring their respiratory metabolism. The circadian rhythm is clearly observed at about 170h (the onset time t(CR-ON)) after germination of seeds in natural conditions in a dark incubator. There are no clear cyclic signals in gas exchange before t(CR-ON). Application of external triggers (temperature shocks) near the onset of the rhythm in seedling growth strongly affects formation processes. The onset is shifted earlier up to 50h by application of perturbations. This fact may suggest that the circadian rhythms appear via subcritical bifurcation.

Self‐Similarity and the Species‐Area Relationship

Self-similar distributions of species across a landscape have been proposed as one potential cause of the well-known species-area relationship. The best known of these proposals is in the form of a probability rule for species occurrence. The application of this rule to the number of species occurring in primary well-shaped rectangles within the landscape gives rise to a discrete power law for species-area relationships. However, this result requires a specific scheme for bisecting the landscape to generate the rectangles. Some additional, more general consequences of the probability rule are presented here. These include the result that the number of species in a well-shaped rectangle depends on its location, not just on its area. In addition, a self-similar landscape contains well-shaped rectangles that are, in fact, not self-similar. The probability rule in general produces testable predictions about how and where species are distributed that are independent of the power law.

Catastrophic extinctions follow deforestation in Singapore

The looming mass extinction of biodiversity in the humid tropics is a major concern for the future, yet most reports of extinctions in these regions are anecdotal or conjectural, with a scarcity of robust, broad-based empirical data. Here we report on local extinctions among a wide range of terrestrial and freshwater taxa from Singapore (540 km2) in relation to habitat loss exceeding 95% over 183 years. Substantial rates of documented and inferred extinctions were found, especially for forest specialists, with the greatest proportion of extinct taxa (34-87%) in butterflies, fish, birds and mammals. Observed extinctions were generally fewer, but inferred losses often higher, in vascular plants, phasmids, decapods, amphibians and reptiles (5-80%). Forest reserves comprising only 0.25% of Singapore's area now harbour over 50% of the residual native biodiversity. Extrapolations of the observed and inferred local extinction data, using a calibrated species-area model, imply that the current unprecedented rate of habitat destruction in Southeast Asia will result in the loss of 13-42% of regional populations over the next century, at least half of which will represent global species extinctions.

Cross-scale ecological dynamics and microbial size spectra in marine ecosystems

Evaluating the component features of 'scaling' planktonic size spectra, commonly observed in marine ecosystems, is crucial for understanding the ecological and evolutionary processes from which they emerge. Here, we develop a theoretical framework that describes such spectra in terms of the size distributions of individual species, and test it against actual datasets of microbial size spectra from the Atlantic Ocean. We describe characteristics of size probability distributions of component species that are sufficient to support the observational evidence and infer that, when a power law describes the community size spectrum (thus suggesting critical self-organization of microbial ecosystem structure and function), a related power law links the total number of individuals of a given species to its mean size.

Scale and species numbers

One of the main tasks confronting community ecologists is to explain why a particular site harbours a certain number of species. The site might range from a drop of water to the whole Earth, and the species might be drawn from a very restricted taxon or include all living organisms. The common problem, however, is to understand the relative importance of speciation and extinction and, more locally, of immigration and loss. Speciation is the ultimate motor driving biodiversity and ecologists need to know the factors influencing rates of speciation, and whether there is a feedback, positive or negative, between species numbers and the generation of new taxa. However, the relative importance of speciation and other factors determining species numbers varies crucially across different scales of enquiry. Here, we explore some of these issues as we move from a macro- to microscale perspective, focusing on a limited number of studies that we believe make important advances in the field.