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Bliard L, Paniw M, Childs DZ, Ozgul A. Population Dynamic Consequences of Context-Dependent Trade-Offs across Life Histories. Am Nat 2024; 203:681-694. [PMID: 38781530 DOI: 10.1086/730111] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/25/2024]
Abstract
AbstractTrade-offs are central to life history theory and play a role in driving life history diversity. They arise from a finite amount of resources that need to be allocated among different functions by an organism. Yet covariation of demographic rates among individuals frequently do not reflect allocation trade-offs because of variation in resource acquisition. The covariation of traits among individuals can thus vary with the environment and often increases in benign environments. Surprisingly, little is known about how such context-dependent expression of trade-offs among individuals affect population dynamics across species with different life histories. To study their influence on population stability, we develop an individual-based simulation where covariation in demographic rates varies with the environment. We use it to simulate population dynamics for various life histories across the slow-fast pace-of-life continuum. We found that the population dynamics of slower life histories are relatively more sensitive to changes in covariation, regardless of the trade-off considered. Additionally, we found that the impact on population stability depends on which trade-off is considered, with opposite effects of intraindividual and intergenerational trade-offs. Last, the expression of different trade-offs can feed back to influence generation time through selection acting on individual heterogeneity within cohorts, ultimately affecting population dynamics.
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Zhao C, Dai W, Liu Q, Liu D, Roberts NJ, Liu Z, Gong M, Qiu H, Liu C, Liu D, Ma G, Jiang G. Combination of facial and nose features of Amur tigers to determine age. Integr Zool 2024. [PMID: 38509845 DOI: 10.1111/1749-4877.12817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 03/22/2024]
Abstract
We found that the area of black round or irregular-shaped spots on the tiger's nose increased with age, indicating a positive relationship between age and nose features. We used the deep learning model to train the facial and nose image features to identify the age of Amur tigers, using a combination of classification and prediction methods to achieve age determination with an accuracy of 87.81%.
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Affiliation(s)
- Caiping Zhao
- Feline Research Center of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Research Center for Northeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Wenrui Dai
- College of Computer and Control Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Qiang Liu
- Feline Research Center of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Research Center for Northeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Dongqi Liu
- Feline Research Center of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Research Center for Northeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Nathan James Roberts
- Feline Research Center of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Research Center for Northeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Zhaoli Liu
- Feline Research Center of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Research Center for Northeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Ming Gong
- Heilongjiang Siberia Tiger Park, Harbin, Heilongjiang, P. R. China
| | - Hongkun Qiu
- Heilongjiang Siberia Tiger Park, Harbin, Heilongjiang, P. R. China
| | - Changhai Liu
- Heilongjiang Siberia Tiger Park, Harbin, Heilongjiang, P. R. China
| | - Dan Liu
- Heilongjiang Siberia Tiger Park, Harbin, Heilongjiang, P. R. China
| | - Guangkai Ma
- College of Computer and Control Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, P. R. China
| | - Guangshun Jiang
- Feline Research Center of National Forestry and Grassland Administration, College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin, P. R. China
- Research Center for Northeast Asia Biodiversity Conservation, Harbin, P. R. China
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3
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Godoy I, Korsten P, Perry SE. Mother of all bonds: Influences on spatial association across the lifespan in capuchins. Dev Sci 2024:e13486. [PMID: 38414216 DOI: 10.1111/desc.13486] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/25/2023] [Revised: 12/22/2023] [Accepted: 01/08/2024] [Indexed: 02/29/2024]
Abstract
In humans, being more socially integrated is associated with better physical and mental health and/or with lower mortality. This link between sociality and health may have ancient roots: sociality also predicts survival or reproduction in other mammals, such as rats, dolphins, and non-human primates. A key question, therefore, is which factors influence the degree of sociality over the life course. Longitudinal data can provide valuable insight into how environmental variability drives individual differences in sociality and associated outcomes. The first year of life-when long-lived mammals are the most reliant on others for nourishment and protection-is likely to play an important role in how individuals learn to integrate into groups. Using behavioral, demographic, and pedigree information on 376 wild capuchin monkeys (Cebus imitator) across 20 years, we address how changes in group composition influence spatial association. We further try to determine the extent to which early maternal social environments have downstream effects on sociality across the juvenile and (sub)adult stages. We find a positive effect of early maternal spatial association, where female infants whose mothers spent more time around others also later spent more time around others as juveniles and subadults. Our results also highlight the importance of kin availability and other aspects of group composition (e.g., group size) in dynamically influencing spatial association across developmental stages. We bring attention to the importance of-and difficulty in-determining the social versus genetic influences that parents have on offspring phenotypes. RESEARCH HIGHLIGHTS: Having more maternal kin (mother and siblings) is associated with spending more time near others across developmental stages in both male and female capuchins. Having more offspring as a subadult or adult female is additionally associated with spending more time near others. A mother's average sociality (time near others) is predictive of how social her daughters (but not sons) become as juveniles and subadults (a between-mother effect). Additional variation within sibling sets in this same maternal phenotype is not predictive of how social they become later relative to each other (no within-mother effect).
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Affiliation(s)
- Irene Godoy
- Department of Animal Behaviour, Bielefeld University, Bielefeld, Germany
- Lomas Barbudal Monkey Project, Lomas Barbudal Biological Reserve, Guanacaste, Costa Rica
| | - Peter Korsten
- Department of Life Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth, UK
| | - Susan E Perry
- Lomas Barbudal Monkey Project, Lomas Barbudal Biological Reserve, Guanacaste, Costa Rica
- Department of Anthropology, University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
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Long ES, Tham EJ, Ferrer RP. Succession and climatic stochasticity induce long-term decline of a forest browser. PLoS One 2024; 19:e0298231. [PMID: 38412173 PMCID: PMC10898743 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298231] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/23/2023] [Accepted: 01/19/2024] [Indexed: 02/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Removal of predators and creation of early seral habitat have, in many systems, caused substantial population growth of herbivores. Hyperabundant herbivores, in turn, induce cascading ecosystem effects, but few studies have investigated long-term browser density trends in relation to succession and stochastic climate events. Here, we use annual, empirical population estimates of a forest browser to relate forest succession to long-term decline of an herbivore that prefers early seral habitat. From 2007-2021, concurrent with reduced timber harvest, we used line-transect distance sampling to document annual changes in Columbian black-tailed deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) density on a mid-sized (17.3km2) predator-free island. We documented successional changes associated with forest aggradation and decreased forage quality for deer: early successional shrub/scrub habitat declined 3.8%/year; timber volume increased 4.5%/year; and canopy coverage increased 2.5%. In 2007-2008, deer densities were the greatest observed (~44/km2), but then an historic snowstorm reduced deer density by 39%. From 2010-2021, as forests continued to mature, deer density decreased 4.0%/year, declining to 20 deer/km2. Using a multivariate approach to combine habitat variables (i.e., early seral coverage, timber volume, and canopy closure) into a measure of forest maturation, we found a significant negative relationship between deer density and forest aggradation. Thus, consistent with predictions for bottom-up limited browsers, we observed significant annual declines in a deer population throughout an extended period of forest regrowth. Despite declines, deer density on the island exceeds mainland densities, and overbrowsing likely continues to disrupt ecosystem processes.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eric S. Long
- Department of Biology, Seattle Pacific University, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Enoch J. Tham
- Department of Biology, Seattle Pacific University, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Ryan P. Ferrer
- Department of Biology, Seattle Pacific University, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
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Fernández-Gómez L, Sánchez-Zapata JA, Donázar JA, Barber X, Barbosa JM. Ecosystem productivity drives the breeding success of an endangered top avian scavenger in a changing grazing pressure context. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2024; 910:168553. [PMID: 37979851 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168553] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/28/2023] [Revised: 10/30/2023] [Accepted: 11/11/2023] [Indexed: 11/20/2023]
Abstract
Environmental conditions and resource availability shape population dynamics through direct and indirect effects of climate, biological interactions and the human modification of landscape. Even when a species seems dependent on predictable anthropogenic food resources or subsidies, ecosystem-level factors can still determine population dynamics across taxa. However, there is still a knowledge gap about the cascade effects driven by climate, vegetation functioning, resource availability and governmental policies on key aspects of species reproduction for top scavengers. Here we put to good use 22 years (2000-2021) of extensive population monitoring from the endemic Canary Egyptian vulture (Neophron percnopterus majorensis) on the Fuerteventura Island (Canary Islands, Spain) to study the relative importance of demographic factors, ecosystem conditions and availability of anthropogenic food sources on breeding success. Our results suggest that ecosystem-level primary productivity, the number of livestock animals present on the island and Density-dependent processes determine the temporal changes in the breeding success of this species. We firstly accounted for a top-down effect of livestock on island vegetation, where overgrazing directly reduces landscape-level vegetation biomass. We, consequently, found a bottom-up effect between vegetation and the Egyptian vulture's breeding success. In this context, minimal changes in ecological conditions can impact the species inhabiting these ecosystems, with direct consequences on a key population stage, such as breeding season, when energy requirements are higher. These results are especially relevant because cascading and indirect effects of ecosystem processes and governmental policies are often overlooked when pursuing conservation goals of endangered species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lola Fernández-Gómez
- Department of Applied Biology, Centro de Investigación e Innovación Alimentaria (CIAGRO-UMH), Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche, 03202 Elche, Spain.
| | - José A Sánchez-Zapata
- Department of Applied Biology, Centro de Investigación e Innovación Alimentaria (CIAGRO-UMH), Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche, 03202 Elche, Spain
| | - José A Donázar
- Department of Conservation Biology, EBD (CSIC), C/. Americo Vespucio 26, 41092 Seville, Spain
| | - Xavier Barber
- Center of Operations Reseach, CIO-UMH, Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche, 03202 Elche, Spain
| | - Jomar M Barbosa
- Department of Applied Biology, Centro de Investigación e Innovación Alimentaria (CIAGRO-UMH), Universidad Miguel Hernández de Elche, 03202 Elche, Spain
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Chambert T, Duriez O, Deleaux M, Besnard A. EolPop, a R-shiny tool for quantifying the demographic impact of species exposed to fatalities: Application to bird collisions with wind turbines. JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT 2023; 345:118923. [PMID: 37688969 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.118923] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/19/2023] [Revised: 08/23/2023] [Accepted: 08/30/2023] [Indexed: 09/11/2023]
Abstract
Quantifying the demographic impact of anthropogenic fatalities on animal populations is a key component of wildlife conservation. However, such quantification remains rare in environmental impact assessments (EIA) of large-infrastructure projects, partly because of the complexity of implementing demographic models. Providing user-friendly demographic tools is thus an important step to fill this gap. We developed an application called EolPop to run demographic simulations and assess population-level impacts of fatalities. This tool, freely available online, is easy to use and requires minimal input data from the user. As an output, it provides an estimate, with associated uncertainty, of the relative deficit in population size at a given time horizon. Because this impact metric is relative to a baseline scenario without fatalities, it is robust to uncertainties. We showcase the tool using examples on two species that are affected by collisions with wind turbines: Lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni) and Eurasian skylark (Alauda arvensis). After 30 years, the kestrel's population is expected to suffer a deficit of ca. 48%. In contrast, the impact on skylarks, which are already declining in France, is estimated to be fairly low (ca. 7%). EolPop aims at providing a robust quantification of the relative impact of fatalities. This tool was originally built for windfarm EIA, with a focus on birds, but it can be used to assess the demographic consequences of any type of fatalities on any species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Thierry Chambert
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE-PSL University, IRD, Montpellier, France.
| | - Olivier Duriez
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE-PSL University, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Mathilde Deleaux
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE-PSL University, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Aurélien Besnard
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE-PSL University, IRD, Montpellier, France
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7
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Macdonald KR, Rotella JJ, Paterson JT. Evaluating the importance of individual heterogeneity in reproduction to Weddell seal population dynamics using integral projection models. J Anim Ecol 2023; 92:1828-1839. [PMID: 37395110 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13975] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/05/2022] [Accepted: 06/02/2023] [Indexed: 07/04/2023]
Abstract
Identifying and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demographic models is important for estimating population-level vital rates and identifying diverse life-history strategies, but much less is known about how this individual heterogeneity influences population dynamics. We aimed to understand how the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproductive and survival rates influenced population dynamics using vital rates from a Weddell seal population by altering the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction, which also altered the distribution of individual survival rates through the incorporation of our estimate of the correlation between the two rates and assessing resulting changes in population growth. We constructed an integral projection model (IPM) structured by age and reproductive state using estimates of vital rates for a long-lived mammal that has recently been shown to exhibit large individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Using output from the IPM, we evaluated how population dynamics changed with different underlying distributions of unobserved individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Results indicate that the changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction cause very small changes in the population growth rate and other population metrics. The largest difference in the estimated population growth rate resulting from changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity was less than 1%. Our work highlights the differing importance of individual heterogeneity at the population level compared to the individual level. Although individual heterogeneity in reproduction may result in large differences in the lifetime fitness of individuals, changing the proportion of above- or below-average breeders in the population results in much smaller differences in annual population growth rate. For a long-lived mammal with stable and high adult-survival that gives birth to a single offspring, individual heterogeneity in reproduction has a limited effect on population dynamics. We posit that the limited effect of individual heterogeneity on population dynamics may be due to canalization of life-history traits.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Jay J Rotella
- Ecology Department, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA
| | - J Terrill Paterson
- Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Bozeman, Montana, USA
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Vuillaume B, Richard JH, Hamel S, Taillon J, Festa-Bianchet M, Côté SD. Birth date determines early calf survival in migratory caribou. Oecologia 2023; 202:819-830. [PMID: 37640888 DOI: 10.1007/s00442-023-05441-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/03/2022] [Accepted: 08/13/2023] [Indexed: 08/31/2023]
Abstract
The decline of most caribou (Rangifer tarandus) populations underlines the need to understand the determinants of key demographic parameters. In migratory caribou, we have limited information on rates and drivers of pre-weaning mortality. We fitted 60 pregnant females of the Rivière-aux-Feuilles caribou herd with GPS camera collars to track the survival of calves from birth to weaning in 2016-2018. Over the three years, calf survival rate before weaning, i.e. to 01-Sep, approximately three months of age, was 0.63 (CI 0.50-0.77). Summer mortality risk was mainly influenced by calf birth date, with calves born earlier in the calving season having a lower mortality risk than those born later. Mortality also increased when calves experienced low or high temperature during calving. This study provides the first estimates of pre-weaning survival of migratory caribou calves in this herd, illustrating the value of new technologies to collect data otherwise difficult to obtain in widely distributed migratory populations. This approach can easily be extended to other large herbivores and predators. Our study brings new insights on how climate change may affect summer juvenile survival given the increased temperatures and faster changes in plant phenology expected in the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Barbara Vuillaume
- Département de Biologie, Caribou Ungava, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 1045, Ave. de la Médecine, Québec, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada.
| | - Julien H Richard
- Département de Biologie, Caribou Ungava, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 1045, Ave. de la Médecine, Québec, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Sandra Hamel
- Département de Biologie, Université Laval, Québec, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
| | - Joëlle Taillon
- Ministère des Forêts de la Faune et des Parcs, Québec, QC, G1S 2L2, Canada
| | - Marco Festa-Bianchet
- Département de Biologie, Caribou Ungava, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, QC, J1K 2 R1, Canada
| | - Steeve D Côté
- Département de Biologie, Caribou Ungava, Centre d'Études Nordiques, Université Laval, 1045, Ave. de la Médecine, Québec, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada
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Vahedi SM, Salek Ardetani S, Brito LF, Karimi K, Pahlavan Afshari K, Banabazi MH. Expanding the application of haplotype-based genomic predictions to the wild: A case of antibody response against Teladorsagia circumcincta in Soay sheep. BMC Genomics 2023; 24:335. [PMID: 37330501 DOI: 10.1186/s12864-023-09407-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2022] [Accepted: 05/24/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Genomic prediction of breeding values (GP) has been adopted in evolutionary genomic studies to uncover microevolutionary processes of wild populations or improve captive breeding strategies. While recent evolutionary studies applied GP with individual single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), haplotype-based GP could outperform individual SNP predictions through better capturing the linkage disequilibrium (LD) between the SNP and quantitative trait loci (QTL). This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy and bias of haplotype-based GP of immunoglobulin (Ig) A (IgA), IgE, and IgG against Teladorsagia circumcincta in lambs of an unmanaged sheep population (Soay breed) based on Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (GBLUP) and five Bayesian [BayesA, BayesB, BayesCπ, Bayesian Lasso (BayesL), and BayesR] methods. RESULTS The accuracy and bias of GPs using SNP, haplotypic pseudo-SNP from blocks with different LD thresholds (0.15, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, and 1.00), or the combinations of pseudo-SNPs and non-LD clustered SNPs were obtained. Across methods and marker sets, higher ranges of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) accuracies were observed for IgA (0.20 to 0.49), followed by IgE (0.08 to 0.20) and IgG (0.05 to 0.14). Considering the methods evaluated, up to 8% gains in GP accuracy of IgG were achieved using pseudo-SNPs compared to SNPs. Up to 3% gain in GP accuracy for IgA was also obtained using the combinations of the pseudo-SNPs with non-clustered SNPs in comparison to fitting individual SNP. No improvement in GP accuracy of IgE was observed using haplotypic pseudo-SNPs or their combination with non-clustered SNPs compared to individual SNP. Bayesian methods outperformed GBLUP for all traits. Most scenarios yielded lower accuracies for all traits with an increased LD threshold. GP models using haplotypic pseudo-SNPs predicted less-biased GEBVs mainly for IgG. For this trait, lower bias was observed with higher LD thresholds, whereas no distinct trend was observed for other traits with changes in LD. CONCLUSIONS Haplotype information improves GP performance of anti-helminthic antibody traits of IgA and IgG compared to fitting individual SNP. The observed gains in the predictive performances indicate that haplotype-based methods could benefit GP of some traits in wild animal populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Seyed Milad Vahedi
- Department of Animal Science and Aquaculture, Dalhousie University, Truro, NS, B2N5E3, Canada
| | | | - Luiz F Brito
- Department of Animal Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, 47907, USA
| | - Karim Karimi
- Molecular Diagnostics Program, Verspeeten Clinical Genome Centre, London Health Sciences Centre, London, ON, N6A 5W9, Canada
| | - Kian Pahlavan Afshari
- Department of Animal Sciences, Islamic Azad University, Varamin, Varamin-Pishva Branch3381774895, Iran
| | - Mohammad Hossein Banabazi
- Department of Animal Breeding and Genetics (HGEN), Centre for Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science (VHC), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), 75007, Uppsala, Sweden.
- Department of Biotechnology, Animal Science Research Institute of IRAN (ASRI), Agricultural Research, Education & Extension Organization (AREEO), Karaj, 3146618361, Iran.
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McKee JL, Tompkins EM, Estela FA, Anderson DJ. Age effects on Nazca booby foraging performance are largely constant across variation in the marine environment: Results from a 5-year study in Galápagos. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10138. [PMID: 37304365 PMCID: PMC10253949 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10138] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/21/2023] [Revised: 05/06/2023] [Accepted: 05/12/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Foraging outcomes dictate the nutritional resources available to an organism and may vary with intrinsic factors, like age. Thus, understanding how age affects foraging performance, alone or in interaction with extrinsic factors (like environmental quality), improves our understanding of aging processes in the wild. We examined how foraging traits, measured across five breeding seasons, change with age, environmental variation, and their interaction in Nazca boobies (Sula granti), a pelagic seabird in Galápagos. We evaluated the hypotheses that (1) foraging performance is better in middle-aged birds than in young ones, and that (2) foraging performance is better in middle-aged birds than in old ones. Furthermore, favorable environmental conditions will either (3) attenuate age differences in foraging performance (by relieving constraints on young, inexperienced and old, senescent age classes), or (4) accentuate age differences (if middle-aged birds can exploit abundant resources better than other age classes can). Incubating birds tagged with GPS loggers (N = 815) provided data on foraging performance (e.g., total distance traveled, mass gained) to evaluate interactions between age and environmental variation (e.g., sea surface temperature). Poor environmental conditions associated with the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation increased foraging effort, including foraging distance and duration, for example. Across age classes, foraging boobies responded similarly to environmental variation except for female mass gain rate: age-related declines in mass gain rate were reduced under favorable environmental conditions. Birds of different ages also searched in somewhat distinct areas in the poor conditions of 2016, but not in other years. In several foraging traits, including foraging duration and distance, female boobies showed predicted early-life improvement and late-life decline, following the established pattern for reproductive traits in this species. Thus, deficits in resource acquisition (this study) may contribute to the poor survival and reproductive outcomes previously observed in old Nazca boobies, particularly in females.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jennifer L. McKee
- Department of BiologyWake Forest UniversityWinston‐SalemNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Emily M. Tompkins
- Department of BiologyWake Forest UniversityWinston‐SalemNorth CarolinaUSA
| | - Felipe A. Estela
- Department of BiologyWake Forest UniversityWinston‐SalemNorth CarolinaUSA
- Departamento de Ciencias Naturales y MatemáticasPontificia Universidad Javeriana – CaliValle del CaucaColombia
| | - David J. Anderson
- Department of BiologyWake Forest UniversityWinston‐SalemNorth CarolinaUSA
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Chapman EG, Pilkington JG, Pemberton JM. Correlates of early reproduction and apparent fitness consequences in male Soay sheep. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10058. [PMID: 37168987 PMCID: PMC10164647 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10058] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/16/2022] [Revised: 04/05/2023] [Accepted: 04/17/2023] [Indexed: 05/13/2023] Open
Abstract
Life history trade-offs are ubiquitous across species and place constraints on the timing of life history events, including the optimal age at first reproduction. However, studies on lifetime breeding success of male mammals are rare due to sex-biased dispersal and the requirement for genetic paternity inferences. We studied the correlates and apparent fitness consequences of early life reproduction among males in a free-living population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) on St Kilda, Scotland. We investigated the factors associated with early breeding success and the apparent consequences of early success for survival and future reproduction. We used genetic paternity inferences, population data, and individual morphology measurements collected over 30 years. We found that individuals born in years with low-density population size had the highest early life breeding success and singletons were more likely to be successful than twins. Individuals that bred successfully at 7 months were more likely to survive their first winter. For individuals that survived their first winter, early breeding success was not associated with later breeding success. As individual heterogeneity affects breeding success, we believe that variation in individual quality masks the costs of early reproduction in this population. Our findings provide no evidence for selection for delayed age at reproduction in male Soay sheep.
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Affiliation(s)
- Elisabeth G. Chapman
- School of Biological Sciences, Institute of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Jill G. Pilkington
- School of Biological Sciences, Institute of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Josephine M. Pemberton
- School of Biological Sciences, Institute of Ecology and EvolutionUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
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12
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Bradshaw CJA, Herrando‐Pérez S. Logistic-growth models measuring density feedback are sensitive to population declines, but not fluctuating carrying capacity. Ecol Evol 2023; 13:e10010. [PMID: 37122772 PMCID: PMC10131297 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10010] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/17/2023] [Revised: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 03/31/2023] [Indexed: 05/02/2023] Open
Abstract
Analysis of long-term trends in abundance of animal populations provides insights into population dynamics. Population growth rates are the emergent interplay of inter alia fertility, survival, and dispersal. However, the density feedbacks operating on some vital rates ("component feedback") can be decoupled from density feedbacks on population growth rates estimated using abundance time series ("ensemble feedback"). Many of the mechanisms responsible for this decoupling are poorly understood, thereby questioning the validity of using logistic-growth models versus vital rates to infer long-term population trends. To examine which conditions lead to decoupling, we simulated age-structured populations of long-lived vertebrates experiencing component density feedbacks on survival. We then quantified how imposed stochasticity in survival rates, density-independent mortality (catastrophes, harvest-like removal of individuals) and variation in carrying capacity modified the ensemble feedback in abundance time series simulated from age-structured populations. The statistical detection of ensemble density feedback from census data was largely unaffected by density-independent processes. Long-term population decline caused from density-independent mortality was the main mechanism decoupling the strength of component versus ensemble density feedbacks. Our study supports the use of simple logistic-growth models to capture long-term population trends, mediated by changes in population abundance, when survival rates are stochastic, carrying capacity fluctuates, and populations experience moderate catastrophic mortality over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Corey J. A. Bradshaw
- Global Ecology, College of Science and EngineeringFlinders UniversityAdelaideSouth AustraliaAustralia
- Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Australian Biodiversity and HeritageWollongongNew South WalesAustralia
| | - Salvador Herrando‐Pérez
- Department of Biogeography and Global ChangeMuseo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, Spanish National Research Council (CSIC)MadridSpain
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13
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Conquet E, Ozgul A, Blumstein DT, Armitage KB, Oli MK, Martin JGA, Clutton-Brock TH, Paniw M. Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity. Ecology 2023; 104:e3894. [PMID: 36208282 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3894] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/20/2021] [Revised: 07/27/2022] [Accepted: 08/04/2022] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λS . Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λS decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λS . Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post-fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large-scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital-rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter-annual vital-rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital-rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter-annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global-change research is crucial.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eva Conquet
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Arpat Ozgul
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Daniel T Blumstein
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, USA.,The Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, Colorado, USA
| | - Kenneth B Armitage
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, The University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, USA
| | - Madan K Oli
- Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA
| | - Julien G A Martin
- Department of Biology, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Tim H Clutton-Brock
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Kalahari Research Trust, Kuruman River Reserve, Northern Cape, South Africa.,Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Maria Paniw
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Department of Conservation and Global Change, Doñana Biological Station (EBD-CSIC), Seville, Spain
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14
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Combe FJ, Juškaitis R, Trout RC, Bird S, Ellis JS, Norrey J, Al‐Fulaij N, White I, Harris WE. Density and climate effects on age‐specific survival and population growth: consequences for hibernating mammals. Anim Conserv 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/acv.12843] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- F. J. Combe
- Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK
- Division of Biology Kansas State University Manhattan KS USA
| | | | | | - S. Bird
- North of England Zoological Society Chester UK
| | - J. S. Ellis
- School of Biological and Marine Sciences University of Plymouth Plymouth UK
| | - J. Norrey
- Division of Biology and Conservation Ecology, School of Science and the Environment Manchester Metropolitan University Manchester UK
| | | | - I. White
- People's Trust for Endangered Species London UK
| | - W. E. Harris
- Agriculture and Environment Sciences Department Harper Adams University Newport UK
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15
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Searle KR, Butler A, Waggitt JJ, Evans PGH, Bogdanova MI, Hobbs NT, Daunt F, Wanless S. Opposing effects of spatiotemporal variation in resources and temporal variation in climate on density dependent population growth in seabirds. J Anim Ecol 2022; 91:2384-2399. [PMID: 36177549 PMCID: PMC10092667 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13819] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/10/2021] [Accepted: 09/14/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
Understanding how ecological processes combine to shape population dynamics is crucial in a rapidly changing world. Evidence has been emerging for how fundamental drivers of density dependence in mobile species are related to two differing types of environmental variation-temporal variation in climate, and spatiotemporal variation in food resources. However, to date, tests of these hypotheses have been largely restricted to mid-trophic species in terrestrial environments and thus their general applicability remains unknown. We tested if these same processes can be identified in marine upper trophic level species. We assembled a multi-decadal data set on population abundance of 10 species of colonial seabirds comprising a large component of the UK breeding seabird biomass, and covering diverse phylogenies, life histories and foraging behaviours. We tested for evidence of density dependence in population growth rates using discrete time state-space population models fit to long time-series of observations of abundance at seabird breeding colonies. We then assessed if the strength of density dependence in population growth rates was exacerbated by temporal variation in climate (sea temperature and swell height), and attenuated by spatiotemporal variation in prey resources (productivity and tidal fronts). The majority of species showed patterns consistent with temporal variation in climate acting to strengthen density dependent feedbacks to population growth. However, fewer species showed evidence for a weakening of density dependence with increasing spatiotemporal variation in prey resources. Our findings extend this emerging theory for how different sources of environmental variation may shape the dynamics and regulation of animal populations, demonstrating its role in upper trophic marine species. We show that environmental variation leaves a signal in long-term population dynamics of seabirds with potentially important consequences for their demography and trophic interactions.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Adam Butler
- Bioinformatics and Statistics ScotlandEdinburghUK
| | | | | | | | - N. Thompson Hobbs
- Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability & Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColoradoUSA
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16
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Payo‐Payo A, Sanz‐Aguilar A, Oro D. Long‐lasting effects of harsh early‐life conditions on adult survival of a long‐lived vertebrate. OIKOS 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.09371] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Ana Payo‐Payo
- School of Biological Sciences, Univ. of Aberdeen Aberdeen UK
| | - Ana Sanz‐Aguilar
- Animal Demography and Ecology Group, IMEDEA (CSIC‐UIB) Esporles Spain
- Applied Zoology and Conservation Group, Univ. of the Balearic Islands Palma Spain
| | - Daniel Oro
- Applied Zoology and Conservation Group, Univ. of the Balearic Islands Palma Spain
- Centro de Estudios Avanzados de Blanes (CEAB) Blanes Spain
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17
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Regan CE, Pemberton JM, Pilkington JG, Smiseth P. Having a better home range does not reduce the cost of reproduction in Soay sheep. J Evol Biol 2022; 35:1352-1362. [PMID: 36063153 PMCID: PMC9826142 DOI: 10.1111/jeb.14083] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/17/2021] [Revised: 06/13/2022] [Accepted: 07/19/2022] [Indexed: 01/11/2023]
Abstract
A cost of reproduction may not be observable in the presence of environmental or individual heterogeneity because they affect the resources available to individuals. Individual space use is critical in determining both the resources available to individuals and the exposure to factors that mediate the value of these resources (e.g. competition and parasitism). Despite this, there has, to our knowledge, been little research to understand how between-individual differences in resource acquisition, caused by variation in space use, interact with environmental variation occurring at the population scale to influence estimates of the cost of reproduction in natural populations. We used long-term data from the St. Kilda Soay sheep population to understand how differences in age, relative home range quality, and average adult body mass, interacted with annual variation in population density and winter North Atlantic Oscillation index to influence over-winter survival and reproduction in the subsequent year, for females that had invested into reproduction to varying degrees. Our results suggest that Soay sheep females experience costs both in terms of future survival and future reproduction. However, we found little evidence that estimated costs of reproduction vary depending on relative home range quality. There are several possible causes for the lack of a relationship between relative home range quality and our estimate of the costs experienced by females. These include the potential for a correlation between relative home range quality and reproductive allocation to mask a relationship between home range quality and reproductive costs, as well as the potential for the benefit of higher quality home ranges being offset by higher densities. Nevertheless, our results raise questions regarding the presence or context-dependence of relationships between resource access and the estimated cost of reproduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlotte E. Regan
- Institute for Evolutionary Biology, University of EdinburghEdinburghUK,Department of ZoologyEdward Grey Institute, University of OxfordOxfordUK
| | | | | | - Per T. Smiseth
- Institute for Evolutionary Biology, University of EdinburghEdinburghUK
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18
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Sparks AM, Johnston SE, Handel I, Pilkington JG, Berry J, Pemberton JM, Nussey DH, Mellanby RJ. Vitamin D status is heritable and under environment-dependent selection in the wild. Mol Ecol 2022; 31:4607-4621. [PMID: 34888965 PMCID: PMC9545857 DOI: 10.1111/mec.16318] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/28/2021] [Revised: 11/12/2021] [Accepted: 11/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Vitamin D has a well-established role in skeletal health and is increasingly linked to chronic disease and mortality in humans and companion animals. Despite the clear significance of vitamin D for health and obvious implications for fitness under natural conditions, no longitudinal study has tested whether the circulating concentration of vitamin D is under natural selection in the wild. Here, we show that concentrations of dietary-derived vitamin D2 and endogenously produced vitamin D3 metabolites are heritable and largely polygenic in a wild population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Vitamin D2 status was positively associated with female adult survival, and vitamin D3 status predicted female fecundity in particular, good environment years when sheep density and competition for resources was low. Our study provides evidence that vitamin D status has the potential to respond to selection, and also provides new insights into how vitamin D metabolism is associated with fitness in the wild.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexandra M. Sparks
- Institute of Evolutionary BiologySchool of Biological SciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
- Faculty of Biological SciencesSchool of BiologyUniversity of LeedsLeedsUK
| | - Susan E. Johnston
- Institute of Evolutionary BiologySchool of Biological SciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Ian Handel
- Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and The Roslin InstituteThe University of EdinburghHospital for Small AnimalsRoslinUK
| | - Jill G. Pilkington
- Institute of Evolutionary BiologySchool of Biological SciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Jacqueline Berry
- Specialist Assay Laboratory (Vitamin D)Clinical BiochemistryManchester Royal InfirmaryManchesterUK
| | - Josephine M. Pemberton
- Institute of Evolutionary BiologySchool of Biological SciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Daniel H. Nussey
- Institute of Evolutionary BiologySchool of Biological SciencesUniversity of EdinburghEdinburghUK
| | - Richard J. Mellanby
- Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies and The Roslin InstituteThe University of EdinburghHospital for Small AnimalsRoslinUK
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19
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Jackson J, Le Coeur C, Jones O. Life-history predicts global population responses to the weather in terrestrial mammals. eLife 2022; 11:74161. [PMID: 35775734 PMCID: PMC9307275 DOI: 10.7554/elife.74161] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/23/2021] [Accepted: 06/30/2022] [Indexed: 11/26/2022] Open
Abstract
With the looming threat of abrupt ecological disruption due to a changing climate, predicting which species are most vulnerable to environmental change is critical. The life-history of a species is an evolved response to its environmental context, and therefore a promising candidate for explaining differences in climate-change responses. However, we need broad empirical assessments from across the world's ecosystems to explore the link between life history and climate-change responses. Here, we use long-term abundance records from 157 species of terrestrial mammals and a two-step Bayesian meta-regression framework to investigate the link between annual weather anomalies, population growth rates, and species-level life history. Overall, we found no directional effect of temperature or precipitation anomalies or variance on annual population growth rates. Furthermore, population responses to weather anomalies were not predicted by phylogenetic covariance, and instead there was more variability in weather responses for populations within a species. Crucially, however, long-lived mammals with smaller litter sizes had smaller absolute population responses to weather anomalies compared with their shorter living counterparts with larger litters. These results highlight the role of species-level life history in driving responses to the environment.
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Affiliation(s)
- John Jackson
- 2.Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | - Owen Jones
- Department of Biology, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, Denmark
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20
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Jensen AJ, Marneweck CJ, Kilgo JC, Jachowski DS. Coyote diet in North America: geographic and ecological patterns during range expansion. Mamm Rev 2022. [DOI: 10.1111/mam.12299] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Alex J. Jensen
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation Clemson University Clemson South Carolina 29631 USA
| | - Courtney J. Marneweck
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation Clemson University Clemson South Carolina 29631 USA
| | - John C. Kilgo
- USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station New Ellenton South Carolina 29809 USA
| | - David S. Jachowski
- Department of Forestry and Environmental Conservation Clemson University Clemson South Carolina 29631 USA
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21
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Payo-Payo A, Acker P, Bocedi G, Travis JMJ, Burthe SJ, Harris MP, Wanless S, Newell M, Daunt F, Reid JM. Modelling the responses of partially-migratory metapopulations to changing seasonal migration rates: from theory to data. J Anim Ecol 2022; 91:1781-1796. [PMID: 35633181 PMCID: PMC9545393 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/08/2021] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Among‐individual and within‐individual variation in expression of seasonal migration versus residence is widespread in nature and could substantially affect the dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations inhabiting seasonally and spatially structured environments. However, such variation has rarely been explicitly incorporated into metapopulation dynamic models for partially migratory systems. We, therefore, lack general frameworks that can identify how variable seasonal movements, and associated season‐ and location‐specific vital rates, can control system persistence. We constructed a novel conceptual framework that captures full‐annual‐cycle dynamics and key dimensions of metapopulation structure for partially migratory species inhabiting seasonal environments. We conceptualize among‐individual variation in seasonal migration as two variable vital rates: seasonal movement probability and associated movement survival probability. We conceptualize three levels of within‐individual variation (i.e. plasticity), representing seasonal or annual variation in seasonal migration or lifelong fixed strategies. We formulate these concepts as a general matrix model, which is customizable for diverse life‐histories and seasonal landscapes. To illustrate how variable seasonal migration can affect metapopulation growth rate, demographic structure and vital rate elasticities, we parameterize our general models for hypothetical short‐ and longer‐lived species. Analyses illustrate that elasticities of seasonal movement probability and associated survival probability can sometimes equal or exceed those of vital rates typically understood to substantially influence metapopulation dynamics (i.e. seasonal survival probability or fecundity), that elasticities can vary non‐linearly, and that metapopulation outcomes depend on the level of within‐individual plasticity. We illustrate how our general framework can be applied to evaluate the consequences of variable and changing seasonal movement probability by parameterizing our models for a real partially migratory metapopulation of European shags Gulosus aristotelis assuming lifelong fixed strategies. Given observed conditions, metapopulation growth rate was most elastic to breeding season adult survival of the resident fraction in the dominant population. However, given doubled seasonal movement probability, variation in survival during movement would become the primary driver of metapopulation dynamics. Our general conceptual and matrix model frameworks, and illustrative analyses, thereby highlight complex ways in which structured variation in seasonal migration can influence dynamics of partially migratory metapopulations, and pave the way for diverse future theoretical and empirical advances.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Payo-Payo
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Paul Acker
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, UK.,Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Greta Bocedi
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Justin M J Travis
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Sarah J Burthe
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, UK
| | - Michael P Harris
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, UK
| | - Sarah Wanless
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, UK
| | - Mark Newell
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, UK
| | - Francis Daunt
- UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, UK
| | - Jane M Reid
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Zoology Building, Tillydrone Avenue, Aberdeen, UK.,Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, NTNU, Trondheim, Norway
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22
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Bonnet T, Morrissey MB, de Villemereuil P, Alberts SC, Arcese P, Bailey LD, Boutin S, Brekke P, Brent LJN, Camenisch G, Charmantier A, Clutton-Brock TH, Cockburn A, Coltman DW, Courtiol A, Davidian E, Evans SR, Ewen JG, Festa-Bianchet M, de Franceschi C, Gustafsson L, Höner OP, Houslay TM, Keller LF, Manser M, McAdam AG, McLean E, Nietlisbach P, Osmond HL, Pemberton JM, Postma E, Reid JM, Rutschmann A, Santure AW, Sheldon BC, Slate J, Teplitsky C, Visser ME, Wachter B, Kruuk LEB. Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals. Science 2022; 376:1012-1016. [PMID: 35617403 DOI: 10.1126/science.abk0853] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/26/2022]
Abstract
The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothée Bonnet
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | | | - Pierre de Villemereuil
- Institut de Systématique, Évolution, Biodiversité (ISYEB), École Pratique des Hautes Études, PSL, MNHN, CNRS, SU, UA, Paris, France.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Susan C Alberts
- Departments of Biology and Evolutionary Anthropology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA
| | - Peter Arcese
- Forest and Conservation Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
| | - Liam D Bailey
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Stan Boutin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Patricia Brekke
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regents Park, London, UK
| | - Lauren J N Brent
- Centre for Research in Animal Behaviour, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Glauco Camenisch
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Anne Charmantier
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Tim H Clutton-Brock
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Andrew Cockburn
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | - David W Coltman
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
| | - Alexandre Courtiol
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Eve Davidian
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Simon R Evans
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.,Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.,Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - John G Ewen
- Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regents Park, London, UK
| | | | - Christophe de Franceschi
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Lars Gustafsson
- Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
| | - Oliver P Höner
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Thomas M Houslay
- Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.,Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Lukas F Keller
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Zoological Museum, University of Zurich,, Zurich, Switzerland
| | - Marta Manser
- Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.,Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
| | - Andrew G McAdam
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
| | - Emily McLean
- Biology Department, Oxford College, Emory University, Oxford, GA, USA
| | - Pirmin Nietlisbach
- School of Biological Sciences, Illinois State University, Normal, IL, USA
| | - Helen L Osmond
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia
| | | | - Erik Postma
- Centre for Ecology and Conservation, University of Exeter, Penryn, UK
| | - Jane M Reid
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim, Norway.,School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
| | - Alexis Rutschmann
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Anna W Santure
- School of Biological Sciences, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
| | - Ben C Sheldon
- Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Jon Slate
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK
| | - Céline Teplitsky
- Centre d'Écologie Fonctionnelle et Évolutive, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France
| | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, Netherlands
| | - Bettina Wachter
- Departments of Evolutionary Ecology and Evolutionary Genetics, Leibniz Institute for Zoo and Wildlife Research, Berlin, Germany
| | - Loeske E B Kruuk
- Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, Australia.,Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
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23
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Fay R, Hamel S, van de Pol M, Gaillard JM, Yoccoz NG, Acker P, Authier M, Larue B, Le Coeur C, Macdonald KR, Nicol-Harper A, Barbraud C, Bonenfant C, Van Vuren DH, Cam E, Delord K, Gamelon M, Moiron M, Pelletier F, Rotella J, Teplitsky C, Visser ME, Wells CP, Wheelwright NT, Jenouvrier S, Saether BE. Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:1640-1654. [PMID: 35610546 PMCID: PMC9323452 DOI: 10.1111/ele.14026] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2022] [Revised: 02/23/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 02/01/2023]
Abstract
Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long‐term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long‐run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rémi Fay
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Sandra Hamel
- Département de biologie, Université Laval, Québec City, QC, Canada
| | - Martijn van de Pol
- College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.,Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Jean-Michel Gaillard
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Nigel G Yoccoz
- Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, UiT The Arctic University of Norway, Tromsø, Norway
| | - Paul Acker
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Matthieu Authier
- Observatoire PELAGIS, UMS-CNRS 3462, Université de la Rochelle, La Rochelle, France
| | - Benjamin Larue
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
| | - Christie Le Coeur
- Department of Biosciences, Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway
| | | | - Alex Nicol-Harper
- School of Ocean and Earth Science, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton Waterfront Campus, Southampton, UK.,Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Christophe Barbraud
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Christophe Bonenfant
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Dirk H Van Vuren
- Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, California, USA
| | - Emmanuelle Cam
- LEMAR, CNRS, IRD, Ifremer, Université de Bretagne Occidentale, Plouzané, France
| | - Karine Delord
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.,Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, CNRS, Unité Mixte de Recherche (UMR) 5558, Université Lyon 1, Université de Lyon, Villeurbanne, France
| | - Maria Moiron
- CEFE, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier, France.,Institute of Avian Research, Wilhelmshaven, Germany
| | - Fanie Pelletier
- Département de Biologie, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada
| | - Jay Rotella
- Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana, USA
| | | | - Marcel E Visser
- Department of Animal Ecology, Netherlands Institute of Ecology (NIOO-KNAW), Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | - Caitlin P Wells
- Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology Department, Colorado State University, Colorado, USA
| | | | - Stéphanie Jenouvrier
- Biology Department, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA.,Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, LEMAR, UMR 7372, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Villiers en Bois, France
| | - Bernt-Erik Saether
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
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24
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Hunter DC, Ashraf B, Bérénos C, Ellis PA, Johnston SE, Wilson AJ, Pilkington JG, Pemberton JM, Slate J. Using genomic prediction to detect microevolutionary change of a quantitative trait. Proc Biol Sci 2022; 289:20220330. [PMID: 35538786 PMCID: PMC9091855 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.0330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/20/2022] [Accepted: 04/12/2022] [Indexed: 12/31/2022] Open
Abstract
Detecting microevolutionary responses to natural selection by observing temporal changes in individual breeding values is challenging. The collection of suitable datasets can take many years and disentangling the contributions of the environment and genetics to phenotypic change is not trivial. Furthermore, pedigree-based methods of obtaining individual breeding values have known biases. Here, we apply a genomic prediction approach to estimate breeding values of adult weight in a 35-year dataset of Soay sheep (Ovis aries). Comparisons are made with a traditional pedigree-based approach. During the study period, adult body weight decreased, but the underlying genetic component of body weight increased, at a rate that is unlikely to be attributable to genetic drift. Thus cryptic microevolution of greater adult body weight has probably occurred. Genomic and pedigree-based approaches gave largely consistent results. Thus, using genomic prediction to study microevolution in wild populations can remove the requirement for pedigree data, potentially opening up new study systems for similar research.
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Affiliation(s)
- D. C. Hunter
- School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
- School of Biology, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9ST, UK
| | - B. Ashraf
- School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
- Department of Anthropology, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE, UK
| | - C. Bérénos
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - P. A. Ellis
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - S. E. Johnston
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - A. J. Wilson
- Centre of Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn TR10 9FE, UK
| | - J. G. Pilkington
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - J. M. Pemberton
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK
| | - J. Slate
- School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S10 2TN, UK
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25
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Moscicki DJ, Gerrits AP, Cantrell JR, Hardin JB, Chamberlain MJ, Collier BA. Hurricane effects on wild turkey survival, daily movements, and roost fidelity. WILDLIFE SOC B 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/wsb.1272] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- David J. Moscicki
- School of Renewable Natural Resources Louisiana State University Baton Rouge 70803 LA USA
| | - Alaina P. Gerrits
- School of Renewable Natural Resources Louisiana State University Baton Rouge 70803 LA USA
| | - Jay R. Cantrell
- South Carolina Department of Natural Resources Columbia 29202 SC USA
| | | | - Michael J. Chamberlain
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources University of Georgia Athens 30602 GA USA
| | - Bret A. Collier
- School of Renewable Natural Resources Louisiana State University Baton Rouge 70803 LA USA
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26
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Paterson JT, Proffitt KM, Rotella JJ. Incorporating vital rates and harvest into stochastic population models to forecast elk population dynamics. J Wildl Manage 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.22189] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Affiliation(s)
| | - Kelly M. Proffitt
- Montana Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Parks Bozeman 59718 MT USA
| | - Jay J. Rotella
- Montana State University 310 Lewis Hall Bozeman MT 59718 USA
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27
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Chevalier M, Tedesco P, Grenouillet G. Spatial patterns in the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors to the population dynamics of three freshwater fish species. PeerJ 2022; 10:e12857. [PMID: 35228906 PMCID: PMC8881916 DOI: 10.7717/peerj.12857] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/15/2021] [Accepted: 01/09/2022] [Indexed: 01/10/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Population dynamics are driven by a number of biotic (e.g., density-dependence) and abiotic (e.g., climate) factors whose contribution can greatly vary across study systems (i.e., populations). Yet, the extent to which the contribution of these factors varies across populations and between species and whether spatial patterns can be identified has received little attention. METHODS Here, we used a long-term (1982-2011), broad scale (182 sites distributed across metropolitan France) dataset to study spatial patterns in the population's dynamics of three freshwater fish species presenting contrasted life-histories and patterns of elevation range shifts in recent decades. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach together with an elasticity analysis to estimate the relative contribution of a set of biotic (e.g., strength of density dependence, recruitment rate) and abiotic (mean and variability of water temperature) factors affecting the site-specific dynamic of two different size classes (0+ and >0+ individuals) for the three species. We then tested whether the local contribution of each factor presented evidence for biogeographical patterns by confronting two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses: the "range-shift" hypothesis that predicts a gradient along elevation or latitude and the "abundant-center" hypothesis that predicts a gradient from the center to the edge of the species' distributional range. RESULTS Despite contrasted life-histories, the three species displayed similar large-scale patterns in population dynamics with a much stronger contribution of biotic factors over abiotic ones. Yet, the contribution of the different factors strongly varied within distributional ranges and followed distinct spatial patterns. Indeed, while abiotic factors mostly varied along elevation, biotic factors-which disproportionately contributed to population dynamics-varied along both elevation and latitude. CONCLUSIONS Overall while our results provide stronger support for the range-shift hypothesis, they also highlight the dual effect of distinct factors on spatial patterns in population dynamics and can explain the overall difficulty to find general evidence for geographic gradients in natural populations. We propose that considering the separate contribution of the factors affecting population dynamics could help better understand the drivers of abundance-distribution patterns.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mathieu Chevalier
- Centre de Bretagne, DYNECO, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Benthique Côtière (LEBCO), IFREMER, Plouzané, France
| | - Pablo Tedesco
- Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
| | - Gael Grenouillet
- Laboratoire Évolution & Diversité Biologique (EDB), CNRS, Université de Toulouse, Toulouse, France
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28
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Peeters B, Grøtan V, Gamelon M, Veiberg V, Lee AM, Fryxell JM, Albon SD, Saether BE, Engen S, Loe LE, Hansen BB. Harvesting can stabilise population fluctuations and buffer the impacts of extreme climatic events. Ecol Lett 2022; 25:863-875. [PMID: 35103374 DOI: 10.1111/ele.13963] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/02/2021] [Revised: 11/02/2021] [Accepted: 12/16/2021] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Harvesting can magnify the destabilising effects of environmental perturbations on population dynamics and, thereby, increase extinction risk. However, population-dynamic theory predicts that impacts of harvesting depend on the type and strength of density-dependent regulation. Here, we used logistic population growth models and an empirical reindeer case study to show that low to moderate harvesting can actually buffer populations against environmental perturbations. This occurs because of density-dependent environmental stochasticity, where negative environmental impacts on vital rates are amplified at high population density due to intra-specific resource competition. Simulations from our population models show that even low levels of harvesting may prevent overabundance, thereby dampening population fluctuations and reducing the risk of population collapse and quasi-extinction following environmental perturbations. Thus, depending on the species' life history and the strength of density-dependent environmental drivers, low to moderate harvesting can improve population resistance to increased climate variability and extreme weather expected under global warming.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bart Peeters
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Vidar Grøtan
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Marlène Gamelon
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.,Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1, Villeurbanne Cedex, France
| | | | - Aline M Lee
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - John M Fryxell
- Biodiversity Institute of Ontario, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Bernt-Erik Saether
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Steinar Engen
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway
| | - Leif Egil Loe
- Department of Ecology and Natural Resource Management, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Ås, Norway
| | - Brage Bremset Hansen
- Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics, Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, Norway.,Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim, Norway
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29
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Allen AM, Jongejans E, van de Pol M, Ens BJ, Frauendorf M, van der Sluijs M, de Kroon H. The demographic causes of population change vary across four decades in a long-lived shorebird. Ecology 2021; 103:e3615. [PMID: 34921394 PMCID: PMC9286424 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3615] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2020] [Revised: 07/29/2021] [Accepted: 09/24/2021] [Indexed: 11/07/2022]
Abstract
Understanding which factors cause populations to decline begins with identifying which parts of the life cycle, and which vital rates, have changed over time. However, in a world where humans are altering the environment both rapidly and in different ways, the demographic causes of decline likely vary over time. Identifying temporal variation in demographic causes of decline is crucial to assure that conservation actions target current and not past threats. However, this has rarely been studied as it requires long time series. Here we investigate how the demography of a long‐lived shorebird (the Eurasian Oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus) has changed in the past four decades, resulting in a shift from stable dynamics to strong declines (−9% per year), and recently back to a modest decline. Since individuals of this species are likely to respond differently to environmental change, we captured individual heterogeneity through three state variables: age, breeding status, and lay date (using integral projection models). Timing of egg‐laying explained significant levels of variation in reproduction, with a parabolic relationship of maximal productivity near the average lay date. Reproduction explained most variation in population growth rates, largely due to poor nest success and hatchling survival. However, the demographic causes of decline have also been in flux over the last three decades: hatchling survival was low in the 2000s but improved in the 2010s, while adult survival declined in the 2000s and remains low today. Overall, the joint action of several key demographic variables explain the decline of the oystercatcher, and improvements in a single vital rate cannot halt the decline. Conservations actions will thus need to address threats occurring at different stages of the oystercatcher's life cycle. The dynamic nature of the threat landscape is further supported by the finding that the average individual no longer has the highest performance in the population, and emphasizes how individual heterogeneity in vital rates can play an important role in modulating population growth rates. Our results indicate that understanding population decline in the current era requires disentangling demographic mechanisms, individual variability, and their changes over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrew M. Allen
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Department of Animal Ecology and PhysiologyRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Eelke Jongejans
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Department of Animal Ecology and PhysiologyRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Martijn van de Pol
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
- College of Science and EngineeringJames Cook UniversityTownsvilleQueenslandAustralia
| | - Bruno J. Ens
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
- Sovon Dutch Centre for Field OrnithologySovon‐TexelTexelThe Netherlands
| | - Magali Frauendorf
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Martijn van der Sluijs
- Department of Animal EcologyNetherlands Institute for Ecology (NIOO‐KNAW)WageningenThe Netherlands
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
| | - Hans de Kroon
- Centre for Avian Population StudiesWageningenThe Netherlands
- Department of Experimental Plant EcologyRadboud UniversityNijmegenThe Netherlands
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30
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R. Hoy S, Forbey JS, Melody DP, Vucetich LM, Peterson RO, Koitzsch KB, Koitzsch LO, Von Duyke AL, Henderson JJ, Parikh GL, Vucetich JA. The nutritional condition of moose co‐varies with climate, but not with density, predation risk or diet composition. OIKOS 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/oik.08498] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Sarah R. Hoy
- College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological Univ. Houghton MI USA
| | | | | | - Leah M. Vucetich
- College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological Univ. Houghton MI USA
| | - Rolf O. Peterson
- College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological Univ. Houghton MI USA
| | - K. B. Koitzsch
- College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological Univ. Houghton MI USA
- K2 Consulting Waitsfield VT USA
| | - Lisa O. Koitzsch
- College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological Univ. Houghton MI USA
- K2 Consulting Waitsfield VT USA
| | | | - John J. Henderson
- College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological Univ. Houghton MI USA
| | - Grace L. Parikh
- College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological Univ. Houghton MI USA
| | - John A. Vucetich
- College of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Technological Univ. Houghton MI USA
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31
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Behavioural Indicators of Intra- and Inter-Specific Competition: Sheep Co-Grazing with Guanaco in the Patagonian Steppe. Animals (Basel) 2021; 11:ani11113333. [PMID: 34828064 PMCID: PMC8614449 DOI: 10.3390/ani11113333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/25/2021] [Revised: 11/14/2021] [Accepted: 11/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/17/2022] Open
Abstract
Simple Summary In extensive livestock ranching, where animals are maintained at high numbers, competition between individuals is expected, but not generally assumed. To compensate for reduced food availability, herbivores modify their feeding behaviour, which can be used as an indicator of competition. We investigated behavioural changes of domestic sheep in Chilean Patagonia in response to herd size, food availability, and the presence of a wild competitor, the guanaco, considered a problem for sheep production by ranchers. Large sheep herds were associated with a decrease in sheep grazing, while food availability increased time spent feeding. Guanaco had no effect on sheep behaviours. Behavioural changes were mostly associated with competition between individual sheep and not with guanaco. We suggest that to improve sheep production, ranchers should focus on sheep management at appropriate herd sizes according to grassland capacities. Abstract In extensive livestock production, high densities may inhibit regulation processes, maintaining high levels of intraspecific competition over time. During competition, individuals typically modify their behaviours, particularly feeding and bite rates, which can therefore be used as indicators of competition. Over eight consecutive seasons, we investigated if variation in herd density, food availability, and the presence of a potential competitor, the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), was related with behavioural changes in domestic sheep in Chilean Patagonia. Focal sampling, instantaneous scan sampling, measures of bite and movement rates were used to quantify behavioural changes in domestic sheep. We found that food availability increased time spent feeding, while herd density was associated with an increase in vigilant behaviour and a decrease in bite rate, but only when food availability was low. Guanaco presence appeared to have no impact on sheep behaviour. Our results suggest that the observed behavioural changes in domestic sheep are more likely due to intraspecific competition rather than interspecific competition. Consideration of intraspecific competition where guanaco and sheep co-graze on pastures could allow management strategies to focus on herd density, according to rangeland carrying capacity.
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32
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Holser RR, Crocker DE, Robinson PW, Condit R, Costa DP. Density-dependent effects on reproductive output in a capital breeding carnivore, the northern elephant seal ( Mirounga angustirostris). Proc Biol Sci 2021; 288:20211258. [PMID: 34641731 PMCID: PMC8511744 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2021.1258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/02/2021] [Accepted: 09/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
All organisms face resource limitations that will ultimately restrict population growth, but the controlling mechanisms vary across ecosystems, taxa, and reproductive strategies. Using four decades of data, we examine how variation in the environment and population density affect reproductive outcomes in a capital-breeding carnivore, the northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris). This species provides a unique opportunity to examine the relative importance of resource acquisition and density-dependence on breeding success. Capital breeders accrue resources over large temporal and spatial scales for use during an abbreviated reproductive period. This strategy may have evolved, in part, to confer resilience to short-term environmental variability. We observed density-dependent effects on weaning mass, and maternal age (experience) was more important than oceanographic conditions or maternal mass in determining offspring weaning mass. Together these findings show that the mechanisms controlling reproductive output are conserved across terrestrial and marine systems and vary with population dynamics, an important consideration when assessing the effect of extrinsic changes, such as climate change, on a population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel R. Holser
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 130 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
| | - Daniel E. Crocker
- Department of Biology, Sonoma State University, Rohnert Park, CA 94928, USA
| | - Patrick W. Robinson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 130 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
| | - Richard Condit
- Field Museum of Natural History, 1400 South Lake Shore Drive, Chicago, IL 60605, USA
- Morton Arboretum, 4100 Illinois Route 53, Lisle, IL 60532, USA
| | - Daniel P. Costa
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, 130 McAllister Way, Santa Cruz, CA 95060, USA
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33
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DeMars CA, Gilbert S, Serrouya R, Kelly AP, Larter NC, Hervieux D, Boutin S. Demographic responses of a threatened, low-density ungulate to annual variation in meteorological and phenological conditions. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0258136. [PMID: 34624030 PMCID: PMC8500449 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258136] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/17/2021] [Accepted: 09/17/2021] [Indexed: 11/30/2022] Open
Abstract
As global climate change progresses, wildlife management will benefit from knowledge of demographic responses to climatic variation, particularly for species already endangered by other stressors. In Canada, climate change is expected to increasingly impact populations of threatened woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) and much focus has been placed on how a warming climate has potentially facilitated the northward expansion of apparent competitors and novel predators. Climate change, however, may also exert more direct effects on caribou populations that are not mediated by predation. These effects include meteorological changes that influence resource availability and energy expenditure. Research on other ungulates suggests that climatic variation may have minimal impact on low-density populations such as woodland caribou because per-capita resources may remain sufficient even in “bad” years. We evaluated this prediction using demographic data from 21 populations in western Canada that were monitored for various intervals between 1994 and 2015. We specifically assessed whether juvenile recruitment and adult female survival were correlated with annual variation in meteorological metrics and plant phenology. Against expectations, we found that both vital rates appeared to be influenced by annual climatic variation. Juvenile recruitment was primarily correlated with variation in phenological conditions in the year prior to birth. Adult female survival was more strongly correlated with meteorological conditions and declined during colder, more variable winters. These responses may be influenced by the life history of woodland caribou, which reside in low-productivity refugia where small climatic changes may result in changes to resources that are sufficient to elicit strong demographic effects. Across all models, explained variation in vital rates was low, suggesting that other factors had greater influence on caribou demography. Nonetheless, given the declining trajectories of many woodland caribou populations, our results highlight the increased relevance of recovery actions when adverse climatic conditions are likely to negatively affect caribou demography.
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Affiliation(s)
- Craig A. DeMars
- Caribou Monitoring Unit, Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute, Edmonton, AB, Canada
- * E-mail:
| | - Sophie Gilbert
- Department of Fish & Wildlife Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States of America
| | - Robert Serrouya
- Caribou Monitoring Unit, Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute, Edmonton, AB, Canada
| | - Allicia P. Kelly
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Government of Northwest Territories, Fort Smith, NT, Canada
| | - Nicholas C. Larter
- Department of Environment and Natural Resources (retired), Government of Northwest Territories, Fort Simpson, NT, Canada
| | - Dave Hervieux
- Alberta Environment and Parks, Grande Prairie, AB, Canada
| | - Stan Boutin
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada
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34
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Climate variability and density-dependent population dynamics: Lessons from a simple High Arctic ecosystem. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2021; 118:2106635118. [PMID: 34504000 PMCID: PMC8449336 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2106635118] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 07/12/2021] [Indexed: 11/18/2022] Open
Abstract
Whether the renowned population cycles of small mammals in northern food webs are driven by bottom-up (plant–herbivore) or top-down (predator–prey) interactions is still a debated question but crucial to our understanding of their ecological functions and response to climate change. A long-term study of a graminivorous vole population in an exceptionally simple High Arctic food web allowed us to identify which population dynamics features are present without top-down regulation. Unique features were high-amplitude, noncyclic population fluctuations driven by a combination of stochastic weather events and season-specific density dependence likely arising from plant–herbivore interactions. That such features are not present in more complex food webs points to the importance of top-down regulation in small mammal populations. Ecologists are still puzzled by the diverse population dynamics of herbivorous small mammals that range from high-amplitude, multiannual cycles to stable dynamics. Theory predicts that this diversity results from combinations of climatic seasonality, weather stochasticity, and density-dependent food web interactions. The almost ubiquitous 3- to 5-y cycles in boreal and arctic climates may theoretically result from bottom-up (plant–herbivore) and top-down (predator–prey) interactions. Assessing, empirically, the roles of such interactions and how they are influenced by environmental stochasticity has been hampered by food web complexity. Here, we take advantage of a uniquely simple High Arctic food web, which allowed us to analyze the dynamics of a graminivorous vole population not subjected to top-down regulation. This population exhibited high-amplitude, noncyclic fluctuations—partly driven by weather stochasticity. However, the predominant driver of the dynamics was overcompensatory density dependence in winter that caused the population to frequently crash. Model simulations showed that the seasonal pattern of density dependence would yield regular 2-y cycles in the absence of stochasticity. While such short cycles have not yet been observed in mammals, they are theoretically plausible if graminivorous vole populations are deterministically bottom-up regulated. When incorporating weather stochasticity in the model simulations, cyclicity became disrupted and the amplitude was increased—akin to the observed dynamics. Our findings contrast with the 3- to 5-y population cycles that are typical of graminivorous small mammals in more complex food webs, suggesting that top-down regulation is normally an important component of such dynamics.
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Plard F, Barthold Jones JA, Gaillard J, Coulson T, Tuljapurkar S. Demographic determinants of the phenotypic mother–offspring correlation. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1479] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Floriane Plard
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 Villeurbanne Cedex France
- Department of Aquaculture and Fish Biology Hólar University Háeyri 1 Sauðárkrókur 550 Iceland
| | | | - Jean‐Michel Gaillard
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 Villeurbanne Cedex France
| | - Tim Coulson
- Department of Zoology University of Oxford Oxford OX1 3PS UK
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Becker JA, Hutchinson MC, Potter AB, Park S, Guyton JA, Abernathy K, Americo VF, Conceiçāo A, Kartzinel TR, Kuziel L, Leonard NE, Lorenzi E, Martins NC, Pansu J, Scott WL, Stahl MK, Torrens KR, Stalmans ME, Long RA, Pringle RM. Ecological and behavioral mechanisms of density‐dependent habitat expansion in a recovering African ungulate population. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Justine A. Becker
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
- Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82072, USA
| | - Matthew C. Hutchinson
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Arjun B. Potter
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Shinkyu Park
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Jennifer A. Guyton
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Kyler Abernathy
- Exploration Technology Lab National Geographic Society Washington D.C. 20036 USA
| | - Victor F. Americo
- Department of Scientific Services Parque Nacional da Gorongosa Sofala Mozambique
| | - Anagledis Conceiçāo
- Department of Scientific Services Parque Nacional da Gorongosa Sofala Mozambique
| | - Tyler R. Kartzinel
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Brown University Providence Rhode Island 02912 USA
- Institute at Brown for Environment and Society Brown University Providence Rhode Island 02912 USA
| | - Luca Kuziel
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Naomi E. Leonard
- Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Eli Lorenzi
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20742 USA
| | - Nuno C. Martins
- Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Maryland College Park Maryland 20742 USA
| | - Johan Pansu
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
- Station Biologique de Roscoff UMR 7144 CNRS‐Sorbonne Université Roscoff France
- CSIRO Ocean & Atmosphere Lucas Heights New South Wales Australia
| | - William L. Scott
- Department of Mechanical Engineering Bucknell University Lewisburg Pennsylvania 17837 USA
| | - Maria K. Stahl
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Kai R. Torrens
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
| | - Marc E. Stalmans
- Department of Scientific Services Parque Nacional da Gorongosa Sofala Mozambique
| | - Ryan A. Long
- Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences University of Idaho Moscow Idaho 83844 USA
| | - Robert M. Pringle
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Princeton University Princeton New Jersey 08544 USA
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37
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Srivastava DS, Coristine L, Angert AL, Bontrager M, Amundrud SL, Williams JL, Yeung ACY, Zwaan DR, Thompson PL, Aitken SN, Sunday JM, O'Connor MI, Whitton J, Brown NEM, MacLeod CD, Parfrey LW, Bernhardt JR, Carrillo J, Harley CDG, Martone PT, Freeman BG, Tseng M, Donner SD. Wildcards in climate change biology. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1471] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
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Wittemyer G, Daballen D, Douglas‐Hamilton I. Differential influence of human impacts on age‐specific demography underpins trends in an African elephant population. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3720] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- George Wittemyer
- Department of Fish, Wildlife and Conservation Biology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USA
- Graduate Degree Program in Ecology Colorado State University Fort Collins Colorado USA
- Save the Elephants Nairobi Kenya
| | | | - Iain Douglas‐Hamilton
- Save the Elephants Nairobi Kenya
- Department of Zoology University of Oxford Oxford UK
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Tompkins EM, Anderson DJ. Breeding responses to environmental variation are age- and trait-dependent in female Nazca boobies. Ecology 2021; 102:e03457. [PMID: 34166542 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3457] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/12/2020] [Revised: 12/04/2020] [Accepted: 04/05/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Age and environment are important determinants of reproductive parameters in long-lived organisms. These factors may interact to determine breeding responses to environmental change, yet few studies have examined the environmental dependence of aging patterns across the entire life span. We do so, using a 20-yr longitudinal data set of reproductive phenotypes in long-lived female Nazca boobies (Sula granti), a monogamous seabird breeding in the eastern tropical Pacific. Young and old females may suffer from inexperience and senescence, respectively, and/or practice reproductive restraint. Breeding performance (for breeding participation, breeding date, clutch size, egg volume, and offspring production) was expected to be lower in these age classes, particularly under environmental challenge, in comparison with middle-aged breeders. Sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) represented interannual variation in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and were one proxy for environmental quality (a population count of clutch initiations was a second). Although only females lay eggs, both sexes care for eggs and nestlings, and the male partner's age, alone or in interaction with female age, was evaluated as a predictor of breeding performance. Middle-aged females performed better than young and old birds for all reproductive traits. Pairing with a young male delayed breeding (particularly for old females) and reduced clutch size, and pairing with an old male reduced offspring production. Challenging environments increased age effects on breeding probability and breeding date across young to middle ages and for offspring production across middle to old ages. However, important exceptions to the predicted patterns for clutch size and fledging success across young to middle ages suggested that trade-offs between fitness components may complicate patterns of trait expression across the life span. Relationships between breeding participation, environment, and individual quality and/or experience in young females may also contribute to unexpected patterns for clutch size and fledging success, traits expressed only in breeders. Finally, independent of age, breeding responses of female Nazca boobies to the ENSO did not follow expectations derived from oceanic forcing of primary productivity. During El Niño-like conditions, egg-laying traits (clutch size, breeding date) improved, but offspring production declined, whereas La Niña-like conditions were "poor" environments throughout the breeding cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Emily M Tompkins
- Biology Department, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA
| | - David J Anderson
- Biology Department, Wake Forest University, Winston-Salem, North Carolina, USA
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Espunyes J, Serrano E, Chaves S, Bartolomé J, Menaut P, Albanell E, Marchand P, Foulché K, Garel M. Positive effect of spring advance on the diet quality of an alpine herbivore. Integr Zool 2021; 17:78-92. [PMID: 34223702 DOI: 10.1111/1749-4877.12572] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
Changes in vegetation phenology related to global warming are having alarming effects on the life history traits of many herbivore species. Such changes are particularly critical in alpine ecosystems, where strong climate limitations on plant growth make seasonal synchronization imperative for the growth, reproduction and survival of herbivores. However, despite the pivotal role of resource-use strategies on the performances of such species, few studies have explicitly assessed the mechanistic impact of climate change on their diets. We aimed to fill this gap by studying the effect of spring onset on the dietary composition and quality of a medium-size alpine herbivore while considering density-dependent processes and age- and sex-specific differences in foraging behavior. Using an exceptional, long-term (24 years) direct individual-based dietary monitoring of a Pyrenean chamois population (Rupicapra pyrenaica pyrenaica), we showed that ongoing earlier onsets of spring are leading to an earlier access to high-quality forage and therefore a higher diet quality at a fixed date, without apparent changes in diet composition. We also showed that at high densities, intraspecific competition reduced diet quality by driving animals to feed more on woody plants and less on nutritious forbs and graminoids. By assessing the mechanistic effects of global warming on the dietary patterns of species at the center of trophic networks, this study is an essential step for predictive models aiming at understanding the ongoing ecosystem consequences of the global climatic crisis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Johan Espunyes
- Wildlife Ecology and Health group (WE&H) i Servei d'Ecopatologia de la Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.,Wildlife Conservation Medicine Research Group (WildCoM), Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.,Research and Conservation Department, Zoo de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
| | - Emmanuel Serrano
- Wildlife Ecology and Health group (WE&H) i Servei d'Ecopatologia de la Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Sara Chaves
- Wildlife Ecology and Health group (WE&H) i Servei d'Ecopatologia de la Fauna Salvatge (SEFaS), Department of Animal Medicine and Surgery, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain.,Group of Ruminant Research (G2R), Department of Animal and Food Science, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Jordi Bartolomé
- Group of Ruminant Research (G2R), Department of Animal and Food Science, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Pierre Menaut
- French Agency for Biodiversity, Direction Régionale Occitanie, Service d'Appui aux Acteurs et Mobilisation du Territoire, Villeneuve de Rivière, France
| | - Elena Albanell
- Group of Ruminant Research (G2R), Department of Animal and Food Science, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Bellaterra, Spain
| | - Pascal Marchand
- French Agency for Biodiversity, Direction de la Recherche et Appui Scientifique, Unité Ongulés Sauvages, Gières, France
| | - Kévin Foulché
- French Agency for Biodiversity, Direction Régionale Occitanie, Service d'Appui aux Acteurs et Mobilisation du Territoire, Villeneuve de Rivière, France
| | - Mathieu Garel
- French Agency for Biodiversity, Direction de la Recherche et Appui Scientifique, Unité Ongulés Sauvages, Gières, France
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Age-structured Jolly-Seber model expands inference and improves parameter estimation from capture-recapture data. PLoS One 2021; 16:e0252748. [PMID: 34106979 PMCID: PMC8189494 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0252748] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/13/2020] [Accepted: 05/22/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the influence of individual attributes on demographic processes is a key objective of wildlife population studies. Capture-recapture and age data are commonly collected to investigate hypotheses about survival, reproduction, and viability. We present a novel age-structured Jolly-Seber model that incorporates age and capture-recapture data to provide comprehensive information on population dynamics, including abundance, age-dependent survival, recruitment, age structure, and population growth rates. We applied our model to a multi-year capture-recapture study of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in western Hudson Bay, Canada (2012–2018), where management and conservation require a detailed understanding of how polar bears respond to climate change and other factors. In simulation studies, the age-structured Jolly-Seber model improved precision of survival, recruitment, and annual abundance estimates relative to standard Jolly-Seber models that omit age information. Furthermore, incorporating age information improved precision of population growth rates, increased power to detect trends in abundance, and allowed direct estimation of age-dependent survival and changes in annual age structure. Our case study provided detailed evidence for senescence in polar bear survival. Median survival estimates were lower (<0.95) for individuals aged <5 years, remained high (>0.95) for individuals aged 7–22 years, and subsequently declined to near zero for individuals >30 years. We also detected cascading effects of large recruitment classes on population age structure, which created major shifts in age structure when these classes entered the population and then again when they reached prime breeding ages (10–15 years old). Overall, age-structured Jolly-Seber models provide a flexible means to investigate ecological and evolutionary processes that shape populations (e.g., via senescence, life expectancy, and lifetime reproductive success) while improving our ability to investigate population dynamics and forecast population changes from capture-recapture data.
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Gowan TA, Tringali MD, Hostetler JA, Martin J, Ward-Geiger LI, Johnson JM. A hidden Markov model for estimating age-specific survival when age and size are uncertain. Ecology 2021; 102:e03426. [PMID: 34091898 PMCID: PMC8459222 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3426] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/05/2020] [Revised: 12/22/2020] [Accepted: 03/15/2021] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Abstract
Estimates of age‐specific survival probabilities are needed for age‐structured population models and to inform conservation decisions. However, determining the age of individuals in wildlife populations is often problematic. We present a hidden Markov model for estimating age‐specific survival from capture–recapture or capture–recapture–recovery data when age is unknown and indicators of age, such as size and growth layer counts, are imprecise. The model is evaluated through simulations, and its implementation is illustrated with maximum likelihood and Bayesian approaches in commonly used software. The model is then applied to genetic capture–recapture data of Florida manatees to estimate age‐ and time‐variant survival probabilities. The approach is broadly applicable to studies aiming to quantify age‐specific effects of environmental change and management actions on population dynamics, including studies that rely on minimally invasive methods such as genetic and photo identification.
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Affiliation(s)
- Timothy A Gowan
- Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA.,Department of Wildlife Ecology and Conservation, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, 32611, USA
| | - Michael D Tringali
- Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA
| | - Jeffrey A Hostetler
- Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA.,Division of Migratory Bird Management, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Laurel, Maryland, 20708, USA
| | - Julien Martin
- Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Gainesville, Florida, 32653, USA
| | - Leslie I Ward-Geiger
- Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA
| | - Jennifer M Johnson
- Fish and Wildlife Research Institute, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, St. Petersburg, Florida, 33701, USA
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43
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Jesmer BR, Kauffman MJ, Courtemanch AB, Kilpatrick S, Thomas T, Yost J, Monteith KL, Goheen JR. Life-history theory provides a framework for detecting resource limitation: a test of the Nutritional Buffer Hypothesis. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e02299. [PMID: 33428817 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2299] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/12/2020] [Revised: 07/10/2020] [Accepted: 10/06/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
For ungulates and other long-lived species, life-history theory predicts that nutritional reserves are allocated to reproduction in a state-dependent manner because survival is highly conserved. Further, as per capita food abundance and nutritional reserves decline (i.e., density dependence intensifies), reproduction and recruitment become increasingly sensitive to weather. Thus, the degree to which weather influences vital rates should be associated with proximity to nutritional carrying capacity-a notion that we refer to as the Nutritional Buffer Hypothesis. We tested the Nutritional Buffer Hypothesis using six moose (Alces alces) populations that varied in calf recruitment (33-69 calves/100 cows). We predicted that populations with high calf recruitment were nutritionally buffered against the effects of unfavorable weather, and thus were below nutritional carrying capacity. We applied a suite of tools to quantify habitat and nutritional condition of each population and found that increased browse condition, forage quality, and body fat were associated with increased pregnancy and calf recruitment, thereby providing multiple lines of evidence that declines in calf recruitment were underpinned by resource limitation. From 2001 to 2015, recruitment was more sensitive to interannual variation in weather (e.g., winter severity, drought) and plant phenology (e.g., duration of spring) for populations with reduced browse condition, forage quality, and body fat, suggesting these populations lacked the nutritional reserves necessary to buffer demographic performance against the effects of unfavorable weather. Further, average within-population calf recruitment was determined by regional climatic variation, suggesting that the pattern of reduced recruitment near the southern range boundary of moose stems from an interaction between climate and resource limitation. When coupled with information on habitat, nutrition, weather, and climate, life-history theory provides a framework to estimate nutritional limitation, proximity to nutritional carrying capacity, and impacts of climate change for ungulates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Brett R Jesmer
- Program in Ecology, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
- Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
- Center for Biodiversity and Global Change, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520, USA
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520, USA
| | - Matthew J Kauffman
- Program in Ecology, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
| | | | - Steve Kilpatrick
- Wyoming Wild Sheep Foundation, P.O. Box 666, Cody, Wyoming, 82414, USA
| | - Timothy Thomas
- Wyoming Game and Fish Department, P.O. Box 6249, Sheridan, Wyoming, 82801, USA
| | - Jeff Yost
- Colorado Parks and Wildlife, P.O. Box 775777, Steamboat Springs, Colorado, 80487, USA
| | - Kevin L Monteith
- Program in Ecology, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
- Wyoming Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
- Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82072, USA
| | - Jacob R Goheen
- Program in Ecology, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, Wyoming, 82071, USA
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Donini V, Pedrotti L, Ferretti F, Corlatti L. Disentangling demographic effects of red deer on chamois population dynamics. Ecol Evol 2021; 11:8264-8280. [PMID: 34188885 PMCID: PMC8216891 DOI: 10.1002/ece3.7657] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/12/2021] [Revised: 04/19/2021] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Investigating the impact of ecological factors on sex- and age-specific vital rates is essential to understand animal population dynamics and detect the potential for interactions between sympatric species. We used block count data and autoregressive linear models to investigate variation in birth rate, kid survival, female survival, and male survival in a population of Alpine chamois Rupicapra rupicapra rupicapra monitored over 27 years within the Stelvio National Park, Central Italian Alps, as function of climatic variables, density dependence, and interspecific competition with red deer Cervus elaphus. We also used path analysis to assess the indirect effect of deer abundance on chamois growth rate mediated by each demographic parameter. Based on previous findings, we predicted that birth rate at [t] would negatively relate to red deer abundance at year [t - 1]; survival rates between [t] and [t + 1] would negatively relate to red deer abundance at year [t - 1] and to the interactive effect of winter precipitation at [t + 1] and chamois density at [t]. Our results showed that birth rate was positively related to spring-summer precipitation in the previous year, but this effect was hampered by increasing red deer abundance. Kid and female survival rates were negatively related to the combined effect of chamois abundance and winter precipitation. Male and female survival rates were negatively related to lagged red deer abundance. The path analysis supported a negative indirect effect of red deer abundance on chamois growth rate mediated by birth rate and female survival. Our results suggest that chamois population dynamics was largely explained by the synergistic effect of density dependence and winter harshness, as well as by interspecific competition with red deer, whose effects were seemingly stronger on the kid-female segment of the population.
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Affiliation(s)
- Valerio Donini
- Stelvio National Park, Sustainable Development and Protected Areas ServiceAutonomous Province of TrentoCogolo di PejoItaly
- Stelvio National ParkBormioItaly
| | - Luca Pedrotti
- Stelvio National Park, Sustainable Development and Protected Areas ServiceAutonomous Province of TrentoCogolo di PejoItaly
- Stelvio National ParkBormioItaly
| | | | - Luca Corlatti
- Stelvio National ParkBormioItaly
- Chair of Wildlife Ecology and ManagementUniversity of FreiburgFreiburgGermany
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Chimienti M, Beest FM, Beumer LT, Desforges J, Hansen LH, Stelvig M, Schmidt NM. Quantifying behavior and life‐history events of an Arctic ungulate from year‐long continuous accelerometer data. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/08/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Marianna Chimienti
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Frederiksborgvej 399 Roskilde4000Denmark
| | - Floris M. Beest
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Frederiksborgvej 399 Roskilde4000Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre Aarhus University Ny Munkegade 116 Aarhus C8000Denmark
| | - Larissa T. Beumer
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Frederiksborgvej 399 Roskilde4000Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre Aarhus University Ny Munkegade 116 Aarhus C8000Denmark
| | - Jean‐Pierre Desforges
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Frederiksborgvej 399 Roskilde4000Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre Aarhus University Ny Munkegade 116 Aarhus C8000Denmark
- Natural Resource Sciences McGill University Ste Anne de Bellevue QuebecH9X 3V9Canada
| | - Lars H. Hansen
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Frederiksborgvej 399 Roskilde4000Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre Aarhus University Ny Munkegade 116 Aarhus C8000Denmark
| | - Mikkel Stelvig
- Centre for Zoo and Wild Animal Health Copenhagen Zoo Frederiksberg2000Denmark
| | - Niels Martin Schmidt
- Department of Bioscience Aarhus University Frederiksborgvej 399 Roskilde4000Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre Aarhus University Ny Munkegade 116 Aarhus C8000Denmark
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46
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Gamelon M, Touzot L, Baubet É, Cachelou J, Focardi S, Franzetti B, Nivois É, Veylit L, Sæther B. Effects of pulsed resources on the dynamics of seed consumer populations: a comparative demographic study in wild boar. Ecosphere 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.3395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/07/2022] Open
Affiliation(s)
- Marlène Gamelon
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1 VilleurbanneF‐69622France
- Department of Biology Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim7491Norway
| | - Laura Touzot
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1 VilleurbanneF‐69622France
| | - Éric Baubet
- DRAS‐Unité Ongulés Sauvages Office Français de la Biodiversité Monfort Birieux01330France
| | - Jessica Cachelou
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558, CNRS, Université de Lyon, Université Lyon 1 VilleurbanneF‐69622France
- DRAS‐Unité Ongulés Sauvages Office Français de la Biodiversité Monfort Birieux01330France
| | - Stefano Focardi
- Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi del CNR via Madonna del Piano 10 Sesto Fiorentino50019Italy
| | - Barbara Franzetti
- Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale via Brancati 60 Roma00148Italy
| | - Éveline Nivois
- DRAS‐Unité Ongulés Sauvages Office Français de la Biodiversité Chemin du Longeau Rozérieulles57160France
| | - Lara Veylit
- Department of Biology Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim7491Norway
| | - Bernt‐Erik Sæther
- Department of Biology Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim7491Norway
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47
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Desforges JP, Marques GM, Beumer LT, Chimienti M, Hansen LH, Pedersen SH, Schmidt NM, van Beest FM. Environment and physiology shape Arctic ungulate population dynamics. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY 2021; 27:1755-1771. [PMID: 33319455 DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15484] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/18/2020] [Accepted: 12/08/2020] [Indexed: 06/12/2023]
Abstract
Species conservation in a rapidly changing world requires an improved understanding of how individuals and populations respond to changes in their environment across temporal scales. Increased warming in the Arctic puts this region at particular risk for rapid environmental change, with potentially devastating impacts on resident populations. Here, we make use of a parameterized full life cycle, individual-based energy budget model for wild muskoxen, coupling year-round environmental data with detailed ontogenic metabolic physiology. We show how winter food accessibility, summer food availability, and density dependence drive seasonal dynamics of energy storage and thus life history and population dynamics. Winter forage accessibility defined by snow depth, more than summer forage availability, was the primary determinant of muskox population dynamics through impacts on calf recruitment and longer term carryover effects of maternal investment. Simulations of various seasonal snow depth and plant biomass and quality profiles revealed that timing of and improved/limited winter forage accessibility had marked influence on calf recruitment (±10-80%). Impacts on recruitment were the cumulative result of condition-driven reproductive performance at multiple time points across the reproductive period (ovulation to calf weaning) as a trade-off between survival and reproduction. Seasonal and generational condition effects of snow-rich winters interacted with age structure and density to cause pronounced long-term consequences on population growth and structure, with predicted population recovery times from even moderate disturbances of 10 years or more. Our results show how alteration in winter forage accessibility, mediated by snow depth, impacts the dynamics of northern herbivore populations. Further, we present here a mechanistic and state-based model framework to assess future scenarios of environmental change, such as increased or decreased snowfall or plant biomass and quality to impact winter and summer forage availability across the Arctic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean-Pierre Desforges
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
- Department of Natural Resource Sciences, McGill University, Ste-Anne-de-Bellevue, QC, Canada
| | - Gonçalo M Marques
- Marine, Environment & Technology Center (MARETEC, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal
| | - Larissa T Beumer
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | | | - Lars H Hansen
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Stine Højlund Pedersen
- Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, USA
| | - Niels M Schmidt
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
| | - Floris M van Beest
- Bioscience Department, Aarhus University, Roskilde, Denmark
- Arctic Research Centre, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark
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48
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Sweeny AR, Albery GF, Venkatesan S, Fenton A, Pedersen AB. Spatiotemporal variation in drivers of parasitism in a wild wood mouse population. Funct Ecol 2021. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2435.13786] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Amy R. Sweeny
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK
| | | | - Saudamini Venkatesan
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK
| | - Andy Fenton
- Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool UK
| | - Amy B. Pedersen
- Institute of Evolutionary Biology, School of Biological Sciences University of Edinburgh Edinburgh UK
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49
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Goodsell RM, Childs DZ, Spencer M, Coutts S, Vergnon R, Swinfield T, Queenborough SA, Freckleton RP. Developing hierarchical density‐structured models to study the national‐scale dynamics of an arable weed. ECOL MONOGR 2021. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1449] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/11/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Robert M. Goodsell
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Sheffield S10 2TN United Kingdom
| | - Dylan Z. Childs
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Sheffield S10 2TN United Kingdom
| | - Matthew Spencer
- School of Environmental Sciences University of Liverpool Liverpool L69 3GP United Kingdom
| | - Shaun Coutts
- Lincoln Institute for Agri‐food Technology University of Lincoln Lincoln LN2 2LG United Kingdom
| | - Remi Vergnon
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Sheffield S10 2TN United Kingdom
| | - Tom Swinfield
- RSPB Potton road Sandy Bedfordshire SH19 2DL United Kingdom
| | - Simon A. Queenborough
- Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies Yale University New Haven Connecticut 06511 USA
| | - Robert P. Freckleton
- Department of Animal and Plant Sciences University of Sheffield Sheffield S10 2TN United Kingdom
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50
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The implications of vehicle collisions for the Endangered endemic Zanzibar red colobus Piliocolobus kirkii. ORYX 2021. [DOI: 10.1017/s0030605320000605] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
AbstractRoads affect wildlife in a variety of negative ways. Road ecology studies have mostly concentrated on areas in the northern hemisphere despite the potentially greater impact of roads on biodiversity in tropical habitats. Here, we examine 4 years (January 2016–December 2019) of opportunistic observations of mammalian roadkill along a road intersecting Jozani-Chwaka Bay National Park, Unguja, Zanzibar. In particular, we assess the impact of collisions on the population of an endemic primate, the Endangered Zanzibar red colobus Piliocolobus kirkii. Primates accounted for the majority of roadkill in this dataset. Monthly rainfall was not associated with roadkill frequency for mammals generally, nor for the Zanzibar red colobus. No single age–sex class of colobus was found dead more often than expected given their occurrence in the local population. The overall effect of roadkill on colobus populations in habitats fragmented by roads is unknown given the lack of accurate, long-term life history data for this species. Our findings suggest that mortality from collisions with vehicles in some groups of colobus is within the range of mortality rates other primates experience under natural predation. Unlike natural predators, however, vehicles do not kill selectively, so their impact on populations may differ. Although a comparison with historical accounts suggests that the installation of speedbumps along the road near the Park's entrance has led to a significant decrease in colobus roadkill, further actions to mitigate the impact of the road could bring substantial conservation benefits.
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