Managing climate risk

Trends in Research and Development for CO2 Capture and Sequestration

Technological and medical advances over the past few decades epitomize human capabilities. However, the increased life expectancies and concomitant land-use changes have significantly contributed to the release of ∼830 gigatons of CO₂ into the atmosphere over the last three decades, an amount comparable to the prior two and a half centuries of CO₂ emissions. The United Nations has adopted a pledge to achieve "net zero", i.e., yearly removing as much CO₂ from the atmosphere as the amount emitted due to human activities, by the year 2050. Attaining this goal will require a concerted effort by scientists, policy makers, and industries all around the globe. The development of novel materials on industrial scales to selectively remove CO₂ from mixtures of gases makes it possible to mitigate CO₂ emissions using a multipronged approach. Broadly, the CO₂ present in the atmosphere can be captured using materials and processes for biological, chemical, and geological technologies that can sequester CO₂ while also reducing our dependence on fossil-fuel reserves. In this review, we used the curated literature available in the CAS Content Collection to present a systematic analysis of the various approaches taken by scientists and industrialists to restore carbon balance in the environment. Our analysis highlights the latest trends alongside the associated challenges.

Global implications of crop‐based bioenergy with carbon capture and storage for terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) based on purpose‐grown lignocellulosic crops can provide negative CO₂ emissions to mitigate climate change, but its land requirements present a threat to biodiversity. Here, we analyse the implications of crop‐based BECCS for global terrestrial vertebrate species richness, considering both the land‐use change (LUC) required for BECCS and the climate change prevented by BECCS. LUC impacts are determined using global‐equivalent, species–area relationship‐based loss factors. We find that sequestering 0.5–5 Gtonne of CO₂ per year with lignocellulosic crop‐based BECCS would require hundreds of Mha of land, and commit tens of terrestrial vertebrate species to extinction. Species loss per unit of negative emissions decreases with: (i) longer lifetimes of BECCS systems, (ii) less overall deployment of crop‐based BECCS and (iii) optimal land allocation, that is prioritizing locations with the lowest species loss per negative emission potential, rather than minimizing overall land use or prioritizing locations with the lowest biodiversity. The consequences of prevented climate change for biodiversity are based on existing climate response relationships. Our tentative comparison shows that for crop‐based BECCS considered over 30 years, LUC impacts on vertebrate species richness may outweigh the positive effects of prevented climate change. Conversely, for BECCS considered over 80 years, the positive effects of climate change mitigation on biodiversity may outweigh the negative effects of LUC. However, both effects and their interaction are highly uncertain and require further understanding, along with the analysis of additional species groups and biodiversity metrics. We conclude that factoring in biodiversity means lignocellulosic crop‐based BECCS should be used early to achieve the required mitigation over longer time periods, on optimal biomass cultivation locations, and most importantly, as little as possible where conversion of natural land is involved, looking instead to sustainably grown or residual biomass‐based feedstocks and alternative strategies for carbon dioxide removal.

A mixed-effect model approach for assessing land-based mitigation in integrated assessment models: A regional perspective

Given the prospects of low short-term emissions reduction, carbon removals (CDRs) are expected to play an important role in achieving ambitious mitigation targets in future scenarios of integrated assessment models (IAMs), particularly Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). In this paper, we explore the IAMC 1.5℃ database to depict the characteristics of the two main CDR options present in mitigation scenarios: BECCS and afforestation/reforestation. We apply a linear mixed-effect model to capture the specific regional and cross-IAM effects. Results reveal that the distribution of BECCS and afforestation deployment differs across IAMs and regions and, to a second extent, time. BECCS is preferred in the scenarios not for its ability to expand energy use but actually because it appears as an alternative to afforestation, which is associated with a decrease in energy use. However, the regional distribution of CDR deployment does not show a common pattern across scenarios and IAMs. Therefore, a more comprehensive investigation is needed before it can support policy proposals.

Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal

The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached.

Negative emissions technologies: A complementary solution for climate change mitigation

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the main greenhouse gas (GHG) and its atmospheric concentration is currently 50% higher than pre-industrial levels. The continuous GHGs emissions may lead to severe and irreversible consequences in the climate system. The reduction of GHG emissions may be not enough to mitigate climate change. Consequently, besides carbon capture from large emission sources, atmospheric CO₂ capture may be also required. To meet the target defined for climate change mitigation, the removal of 10 Gt·yr^-1 of CO₂ globally by mid-century and 20 Gt·yr^-1 of CO₂ globally by the end of century. The technologies applied with this aim are known as negative emission technologies (NETs), as they lead to achieve a negative balance of carbon in atmosphere. This paper aims to present the recent research works regarding NETs, focusing the research findings achieved by academic groups and projects. Besides several advantages, NETs present high operational cost and its scale-up should be tested to know the real effect on climate change mitigation. With current knowledge, no single process should be seen as a solution. Research efforts should be performed to evaluate and reduce NETs costs and environmental impact.

On the financial viability of negative emissions

Climate mitigation will have significant impacts on government spending necessary to finance large-scale deployment of Negative Emission Technologies (NETs). The required expenditure might consume up to a third of general government expenditure in advanced economies.

Recent publications have raised concerns regarding the actual feasibility Negative Emission Technologies (NETs). Here the authors commented on the financial viability of large-scale late century NETs and suggested that expenditure peak will occur in the end of the century, which would require massive global subsidy program.

Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C: a tale of turning around in no time?

We explore the feasibility of limiting global warming to 1.5°C without overshoot and without the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. For this purpose, we perform a sensitivity analysis of four generic emissions reduction measures to identify a lower bound on future CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes. Final energy demand reductions and electrification of energy end uses as well as decarbonization of electricity and non-electric energy supply are all considered. We find the lower bound of cumulative fossil fuel and industry CO₂ emissions to be 570 GtCO₂ for the period 2016-2100, around 250 GtCO₂ lower than the lower end of available 1.5°C mitigation pathways generated with integrated assessment models. Estimates of 1.5°C-consistent CO₂ budgets are highly uncertain and range between 100 and 900 GtCO₂ from 2016 onwards. Based on our sensitivity analysis, limiting warming to 1.5°C will require CDR or terrestrial net carbon uptake if 1.5°C-consistent budgets are smaller than 650 GtCO₂ The earlier CDR is deployed, the more it neutralizes post-2020 emissions rather than producing net negative emissions. Nevertheless, if the 1.5°C budget is smaller than 550 GtCO₂, temporary overshoot of the 1.5°C limit becomes unavoidable if CDR cannot be ramped up faster than to 4 GtCO₂ in 2040 and 10 GtCO₂ in 2050.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Impacts on terrestrial biodiversity of moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target

We applied a recently developed tool to examine the reduction in climate risk to biodiversity in moving from a 2°C to a 1.5°C target. We then reviewed the recent literature examining the impact of (a) land-based mitigation options and (b) land-based greenhouse gas removal options on biodiversity. We show that holding warming to 1.5°C versus 2°C can significantly reduce the number of species facing a potential loss of 50% of their climatic range. Further, there would be an increase of 5.5-14% of the globe that could potentially act as climatic refugia for plants and animals, an area equivalent to the current global protected area network. Efforts to meet the 1.5°C target through mitigation could largely be consistent with biodiversity protection/enhancement. For impacts of land-based greenhouse gas removal technologies on biodiversity, some (e.g. soil carbon sequestration) could be neutral or positive, others (e.g. bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) are likely to lead to conflicts, while still others (e.g. afforestation/reforestation) are context-specific, when applied at scales necessary for meaningful greenhouse gas removal. Additional effort to meet the 1.5°C target presents some risks, particularly if inappropriately managed, but it also presents opportunities.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Preliminary assessment of the potential for, and limitations to, terrestrial negative emission technologies in the UK

The aggregate technical potential for land-based negative emissions technologies (NETs) in the UK is estimated to be 12-49 Mt C eq. per year, representing around 8-32% of current emissions. The proportion of this potential that could be realized is limited by a number of cost, energy and environmental constraints which vary greatly between NETs.

Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C

The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to "pursue efforts" to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6-3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Soil carbon sequestration and biochar as negative emission technologies

Despite 20 years of effort to curb emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions grew faster during the 2000s than in the 1990s, which presents a major challenge for meeting the international goal of limiting warming to <2 °C relative to the preindustrial era. Most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs) to reach the 2 °C target. A recent analysis of NETs, including direct air capture, enhanced weathering, bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation/deforestation, showed that all NETs have significant limits to implementation, including economic cost, energy requirements, land use, and water use. In this paper, I assess the potential for negative emissions from soil carbon sequestration and biochar addition to land, and also the potential global impacts on land use, water, nutrients, albedo, energy and cost. Results indicate that soil carbon sequestration and biochar have useful negative emission potential (each 0.7 GtCeq. yr(-1) ) and that they potentially have lower impact on land, water use, nutrients, albedo, energy requirement and cost, so have fewer disadvantages than many NETs. Limitations of soil carbon sequestration as a NET centre around issues of sink saturation and reversibility. Biochar could be implemented in combination with bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Current integrated assessment models do not represent soil carbon sequestration or biochar. Given the negative emission potential of SCS and biochar and their potential advantages compared to other NETs, efforts should be made to include these options within IAMs, so that their potential can be explored further in comparison with other NETs for climate stabilization.

Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 °C

To limit global warming to <2 °C we must reduce the net amount of CO2 we release into the atmosphere, either by producing less CO2 (conventional mitigation) or by capturing more CO2 (negative emissions). Here, using state-of-the-art carbon-climate models, we quantify the trade-off between these two options in RCP2.6: an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario likely to limit global warming below 2 °C. In our best-case illustrative assumption of conventional mitigation, negative emissions of 0.5-3 Gt C (gigatonnes of carbon) per year and storage capacity of 50-250 Gt C are required. In our worst case, those requirements are 7-11 Gt C per year and 1,000-1,600 Gt C, respectively. Because these figures have not been shown to be feasible, we conclude that development of negative emission technologies should be accelerated, but also that conventional mitigation must remain a substantial part of any climate policy aiming at the 2-°C target.

Spatial-temporal variations in carbon dioxide levels in Ibadan, Nigeria

Growing evidence suggests how global background levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are increasing and this impacts environmental quality and human and ecological health. Data from less developed countries are sparse. We determined spatial and temporal variations in concentrations of CO2 in selected locations in Ibadan, Nigeria with identifiable prominent outdoor sources. Activity driven areas in north and south-west areas were identified and marked with a global positioning system. Waste management practices and activities generating CO2 were documented and described using a technician observation checklist. CO2 levels were measured using a portable TELAIRE 7001 attached to HOBO U12 data loggers across seasons. Mean CO2 levels were compared over seasons, i.e. rainy season months and the dry season months. While CO2 levels recorded outdoors in study areas were comparable to available international data, routine monitoring is recommended to further characterize concurrent pollutants in fossil fuel combustion emissions with known deleterious health effects.

Bio-refinery system of DME or CH4 production from black liquor gasification in pulp mills

There is great interest in developing black liquor gasification technology over recent years for efficient recovery of bio-based residues in chemical pulp mills. Two potential technologies of producing dimethyl ether (DME) and methane (CH(4)) as alternative fuels from black liquor gasification integrated with the pulp mill have been studied and compared in this paper. System performance is evaluated based on: (i) comparison with the reference pulp mill, (ii) fuel to product efficiency (FTPE) and (iii) biofuel production potential (BPP). The comparison with the reference mill shows that black liquor to biofuel route will add a highly significant new revenue stream to the pulp industry. The results indicate a large potential of DME and CH(4) production globally in terms of black liquor availability. BPP and FTPE of CH(4) production is higher than DME due to more optimized integration with the pulping process and elimination of evaporation unit in the pulp mill.

Carbon stock growth in a forest stand: the power of age

BACKGROUND

Understanding the relationship between the age of a forest stand and its biomass is essential for managing the forest component of the global carbon cycle. Since biomass increases with stand age, postponing harvesting to the age of biological maturity may result in the formation of a large carbon sink. This article quantifies the carbon sequestration capacity of forests by suggesting a default rule to link carbon stock and stand age.

RESULTS

The age dependence of forest biomass is shown to be a power-law monomial where the power of age is theoretically estimated to be 4/5. This theoretical estimate is close to the known empirical estimate; therefore, it provides a scientific basis for a quick and transparent assessment of the benefits of postponing the harvest, suggesting that the annual magnitude of the sink induced by delayed harvest lies in the range of 1-2% of the baseline carbon stock.

CONCLUSION

The results of this study imply that forest age could be used as an easily understood and scientifically sound measure of the progress in complying with national targets on the protection and enhancement of forest carbon sinks.

Fluidized bed combustion systems integrating CO2 capture with CaO

Capturing CO2 from large-scale power generation combustion systems such as fluidized bed combustors (FBCs) may become important in a CO2-constrained world. Using previous experience in capturing pollutants such as SO2 in these systems, we discuss a range of options that incorporate capture of CO2 with CaO in FBC systems. Natural limestones emerge from this study as suitable high-temperature sorbents for these systems because of their low price and availability. This is despite their limited performance as regenerable sorbents. We have found a range of process options that allow the sorbent utilization to maintain a given level of CO2 separation efficiency, appropriate operating conditions, and sufficiently high power generation efficiencies. A set of reference case examples has been chosen to discuss the critical scientific and technical issues of sorbent performance and reactor design for these novel CO2 capture concepts.

Assessment of potential carbon dioxide reductions due to biomass-coal cofiring in the United States

Cofiring biomass with coal in existing power plants offers a relatively inexpensive and efficient option for increasing near-term biomass energy utilization. Potential benefits include reduced emissions of carbon dioxide, sulfur, and nitrogen oxides and development of biomass energy markets. To understand the economics of this strategy, we develop a model to calculate electricity and pollutant mitigation costs with explicit characterization of uncertainty in fuel and technology costs and variability in fuel properties. The model is first used to evaluate the plant-level economics of cofiring as a function of biomass cost. It is then integrated with state-specific coal consumption and biomass supply estimates to develop national supply curves for cofire electricity and carbon mitigation. A delivered cost of biomass below 15 dollars per ton is required for cofire to be competitive with existing coal-based generation. Except at low biomass prices (less than 15 dollars per ton), cofiring is unlikely to be competitive for NOx or SOx control, but it can provide comparatively inexpensive control of CO2 emissions: we estimate that emissions reductions of 100 Mt-CO2/year (a 5% reduction in electric-sector emissions) can be achieved at 25 +/- 20 dollars/tC. The 2-3 year time horizon for deployment--compared with 10-20 years for other CO2 mitigation options--makes cofiring particularly attractive.