Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Fracturing and tectonic stress drive ultrarapid magma flow into dikes

Many examples of exposed giant dike swarms can be found where lateral magma flow has exceeded hundreds of kilometers. We show that massive magma flow into dikes can be established with only modest overpressure in a magma body if a large enough pathway opens at its boundary and gradual buildup of high tensile stress has occurred along the dike pathway prior to the onset of diking. This explains rapid initial magma flow rates, modeled up to about 7400 cubic meters per second into a dike ~15-kilometers long, which propagated under the town of Grindavík, Southwest Iceland, in November 2023. Such high flow rates provide insight into the formation of major dikes and imply a serious hazard potential for high-flow rate intrusions that propagate to the surface and transition into eruptions.

Pre-existing structural control on the recent Holuhraun eruptions along the Bárðarbunga spreading center, Iceland

The active rift zones in Iceland provide unique insight into the geodynamic processes of divergent plate boundaries. The geodynamics of Iceland are studied intensively, particularly, by geophysical methods sensitive to active and/or visible structures such as earthquake seismic and Synthetic Aperture Radar observations or aerial photographs. However, older and less active structures, that may exert a strong control on the presently active geodynamics, are often buried beneath recent volcanic or sedimentary deposits and are-due to their passive mode-overseen by the typical geophysical investigations. Aeromagnetic surveys provide spatial information about subsurface magnetization contrasts relating to both active and inactive structures. However, the aeromagnetic data in Iceland were collected in the 1970-80s and are relevant only to large-scale regional rift studies. With the availability of reliable drones and light-weight atomic scalar sensors, high-quality drone magnetic surveys can provide an unprecedented spatial resolution of both active and passive structures of rift systems as compared to conventional airborne surveys. Here, we present the results of a drone-towed magnetic scalar field and scalar gradiometry study of the north-northeast trending Bárðarbunga spreading center to the north of the Vatnajökull ice cap, Iceland. Our results provide new information about the structural complexity of rift zones with evidence of densely-spaced, conjugate and oblique faults throughout the area. Evidence is shown of a hitherto unknown and prominent east-northeast trending fault structure that coincides with the northern tip of the main eruption edifice of the 1797 and 2014-15 Holuhraun volcanic events. We suggest that this pre-existing structure controlled the locus of vertical magma migration during the two Holuhraun events.

The magmatic system under Hunga volcano before and after the 15 January 2022 eruption

One of the largest explosive eruptions instrumentally recorded occurred at Hunga volcano on 15 January 2022. The magma plumbing system under this volcano is unexplored because of inherent difficulties caused by its submarine setting. We use marine gravity data derived from satellite altimetry combined with multibeam bathymetry to model the architecture and dynamics of the magmatic system before and after the January 2022 eruption. We provide geophysical evidence for substantial high-melt content magma accumulation in three reservoirs at shallow depths (2 to 10 kilometers) under the volcano. We estimate that less than ~30% of the existing magma was evacuated by the main eruptive phases, enough to trigger caldera collapse. The eruption and caldera collapse reorganized magma storage, resulting in an increased connectivity between the two spatially distinct reservoirs. Modeling global satellite altimetry-derived gravity data at undersea volcanoes offer a promising reconnaissance tool to probe the subsurface for eruptible magma.

Insights into volcanic hazards and plume chemistry from multi-parameter observations: the eruptions of Fimmvörðuháls and Eyjafjallajökull (2010) and Holuhraun (2014-2015)

The eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull volcano in 2010 (including its initial effusive phase at Fimmvörðuháls and its later explosive phase from the central volcano) and Bárðarbunga volcano in 2014-2015 (at Holuhraun) were widely reported. Here, we report on complementary, interdisciplinary observations made of the eruptive gases and lavas that shed light on the processes and atmospheric impacts of the eruptions, and afford an intercomparison of contrasting eruptive styles and hazards. We find that (i) consistent with other authors, there are substantial differences in the gas composition between the eruptions; namely that the deeper stored Eyjafjallajökull magmas led to greater enrichment in Cl relative to S; (ii) lava field SO2 degassing was measured to be 5-20% of the total emissions during Holuhraun, and the lava emissions were enriched in Cl at both fissure eruptions-particularly Fimmvörðuháls; and (iii) BrO is produced in Icelandic plumes in spite of the low UV levels.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11069-023-06114-7.

Measuring glacier mass changes from space-a review

Glaciers distinct from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are currently losing mass rapidly with direct and severe impacts on the habitability of some regions on Earth as glacier meltwater contributes to sea-level rise and alters regional water resources in arid regions. In this review, we present the different techniques developed during the last two decades to measure glacier mass change from space: digital elevation model (DEM) differencing from stereo-imagery and synthetic aperture radar interferometry, laser and radar altimetry and space gravimetry. We illustrate their respective strengths and weaknesses to survey the mass change of a large Arctic ice body, the Vatnajökull Ice Cap (Iceland) and for the steep glaciers of the Everest area (Himalaya). For entire regions, mass change estimates sometimes disagree when a similar technique is applied by different research groups. At global scale, these discrepancies result in mass change estimates varying by 20%-30%. Our review confirms the need for more thorough inter-comparison studies to understand the origin of these differences and to better constrain regional to global glacier mass changes and, ultimately, past and future glacier contribution to sea-level rise.

Combining thermal, tri-stereo optical and bi-static InSAR satellite imagery for lava volume estimates: the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption, La Palma

Determining outline, volume and effusion rate during an effusive volcanic eruption is crucial as it is a major controlling factor of the lava flow lengths, the prospective duration and hence the associated hazards. We present for the first time a multi-sensor thermal-and-topographic satellite data analysis for estimating lava effusion rates and volume. At the 2021 lava field of Cumbre Vieja, La Palma, we combine VIIRS + MODIS thermal data-based effusion rate estimates with DSMs analysis derived from optical tri-stereo Pléiades and TanDEM-X bi-static SAR-data. This multi-sensor-approach allows to overcome limitations of single-methodology-studies and to achieve both, high-frequent observation of the relative short-term effusion rate trends and precise total volume estimates. We find a final subaerial-lava volume of [Formula: see text] with a MOR of 28.8 ± 1.4 m³/s. We identify an initially sharp eruption-rate-peak, followed by a gradually decreasing trend, interrupted by two short-lived-peaks in mid/end November. High eruption rate accompanied by weak seismicity was observed during the early stages of the eruption, while during later stage the lava effusion trend coincides with seismicity. This article demonstrates the geophysical monitoring of eruption rate fluctuations, that allows to speculate about changes of an underlying pathway during the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption.

Microbial Response to Increased Temperatures Within a Lava-Induced Hydrothermal System in Iceland: An Analogue for the Habitability of Volcanic Terrains on Mars

Fossil hydrothermal systems on Mars are important exploration targets because they may have once been habitable and could still preserve evidence of microbial life. We investigated microbial communities within an active lava-induced hydrothermal system associated with the 2014-2015 eruption of Holuhraun in Iceland as a Mars analogue. In 2016, the microbial composition in the lava-heated water differed substantially from that of the glacial river and spring water sources that fed into the system. Several taxonomic and metabolic groups were confined to the water emerging from the lava and some showed the highest sequence similarities to subsurface ecosystems, including to the predicted thermophilic and deeply branching Candidatus Acetothermum autotrophicum. Measurements show that the communities were affected by temperature and other environmental factors. In particular, comparing glacial river water incubated in situ (5.7°C, control) with glacial water incubated within a lava-heated stream (17.5°C, warm) showed that microbial abundance, richness, and diversity increased in the warm treatment compared with the control, with the predicted major metabolism shifting from lithotrophy toward organotrophy and possibly phototrophy. In addition, thermophilic bacteria isolated from the lava-heated water and a nearby acidic hydrothermal system included the known endospore-formers Geobacillus stearothermophilus and Paenibacillus cisolokensis as well as a potentially novel taxon within the order Hyphomicrobiales. Similar lava-water interactions on Mars could therefore have generated habitable environments for microbial communities.

Deformation and seismicity decline before the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption

Increased rates of deformation and seismicity are well-established precursors to volcanic eruptions, and their interpretation forms the basis for eruption warnings worldwide. Rates of ground displacement and the number of earthquakes escalate before many eruptions^1-3, as magma forces its way towards the surface. However, the pre-eruptive patterns of deformation and seismicity vary widely. Here we show how an eruption beginning on 19 March 2021 at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, was preceded by a period of tectonic stress release ending with a decline in deformation and seismicity over several days preceding the eruption onset. High rates of deformation and seismicity occurred from 24 February to mid-March in relation to gradual emplacement of an approximately 9-km-long magma-filled dyke, between the surface and 8 km depth (volume approximately 34 × 10⁶ m³), as well as the triggering of strike-slip earthquakes up to magnitude M_W 5.64. As stored tectonic stress was systematically released, there was less lateral migration of magma and a reduction in both the deformation rates and seismicity. Weaker crust near the surface may also have contributed to reduced seismicity, as the depth of active magma emplacement progressively shallowed. This demonstrates that the interaction between volcanoes and tectonic stress as well as crustal layering need to be fully considered when forecasting eruptions.

Changes in groundwater trace element concentrations before seismic and volcanic activities in Iceland during 2010-2018

We analysed temporal variations of trace element concentrations in groundwater from a 101 m-deep borehole (HA01) in northern Iceland during 2010-2018 and compared them with seismic and volcanic events that occurred in the same period to identify potential hydrogeochemical precursors. An increase of B, Al, V, Li and Mo concentrations started from eight months to one month before the 2014 Bárðarbunga eruption (~115 km from HA01), a major rifting event in central Iceland, while Ga and V concentrations began to increase one day and one month after the onset of the event, respectively. We also found that concentrations of some trace elements (Li, B, Ga, Mo, Sr, Rb and Fe) significantly increased before an M_w 5.0 earthquake that occurred ~80 km from the borehole in 2018. However, other notable hydrogeochemical changes were detected during the monitoring period without apparent correlation with the seismic and volcanic events in the region. This study shows that the systematic long-term hydrogeochemical monitoring in seismic and volcanic areas is critical to advance the science of seismic and eruptive precursors. Furthermore, the use of statistical tools, such as Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Change Point (CP) detection can help identify the most useful chemical elements and validate the trend variability of those elements in the time series, reducing arbitrary choices of pre-seismic and pre-volcanic hydrogeochemical anomalies as potential precursors.

Basal nucleation and the prevalence of ascending swarms in Long Valley caldera

Earthquake swarms are ubiquitous in volcanic systems, being manifestations of underlying nontectonic processes such as magma intrusions or volatile fluid transport. The Long Valley caldera, California, is one such setting where episodic earthquake swarms and persistent uplift suggest the presence of active magmatism. We quantify the long-term spatial and temporal characteristics of seismicity in the region using cluster analysis on a 25-year high-resolution earthquake catalog derived using leading-edge deep-learning algorithms. Our results show that earthquake swarms beneath the caldera exhibit enlarged families with statistically significant tendency for upward migration patterns. The ascending swarms tend to nucleate at the base of the seismogenic zone with a spatial footprint that is laterally constrained by the southern rim of the caldera. We suggest that these swarms are driven by the transport of volatile-rich fluids released from deep volcanic processes. The observations highlight the potential for extreme spatial segmentation of earthquake triggering processes in magmatic systems.

Repeating caldera collapse events constrain fault friction at the kilometer scale

Fault friction is central to understanding earthquakes, yet laboratory rock mechanics experiments are restricted to, at most, meter scale. Questions thus remain as to the applicability of measured frictional properties to faulting in situ. In particular, the slip-weakening distance [Formula: see text] strongly influences precursory slip during earthquake nucleation, but scales with fault roughness and is challenging to extrapolate to nature. The 2018 eruption of K̄ılauea volcano, Hawaii, caused 62 repeatable collapse events in which the summit caldera dropped several meters, accompanied by [Formula: see text] 4.7 to 5.4 very long period (VLP) earthquakes. Collapses were exceptionally well recorded by global positioning system (GPS) and tilt instruments and represent unique natural kilometer-scale friction experiments. We model a piston collapsing into a magma reservoir. Pressure at the piston base and shear stress on its margin, governed by rate and state friction, balance its weight. Downward motion of the piston compresses the underlying magma, driving flow to the eruption. Monte Carlo estimation of unknowns validates laboratory friction parameters at the kilometer scale, including the magnitude of steady-state velocity weakening. The absence of accelerating precollapse deformation constrains [Formula: see text] to be [Formula: see text] mm, potentially much less. These results support the use of laboratory friction laws and parameters for modeling earthquakes. We identify initial conditions and material and magma-system parameters that lead to episodic caldera collapse, revealing that small differences in eruptive vent elevation can lead to major differences in eruption volume and duration. Most historical basaltic caldera collapses were, at least partly, episodic, implying that the conditions for stick-slip derived here are commonly met in nature.

Review of Works Combining GNSS and InSAR in Europe

The Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) and Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) can be combined to achieve different goals, owing to their main principles. Both enable the collection of information about ground deformation due to the differences of two consequent acquisitions. Their variable applications, even if strictly related to ground deformation and water vapor determination, have encouraged the scientific community to combine GNSS and InSAR data and their derivable products. In this work, more than 190 scientific contributions were collected spanning the whole European continent. The spatial and temporal distribution of such studies, as well as the distinction in different fields of application, were analyzed. Research in Italy, as the most represented nation, with 47 scientific contributions, has been dedicated to the spatial and temporal distribution of its studied phenomena. The state-of-the-art of the various applications of these two combined techniques can improve the knowledge of the scientific community and help in the further development of new approaches or additional applications in different fields. The demonstrated usefulness and versability of the combination of GNSS and InSAR remote sensing techniques for different purposes, as well as the availability of free data, EUREF and GMS (Ground Motion Service), and the possibility of overcoming some limitations of these techniques through their combination suggest an increasingly widespread approach.

Dynamics of large effusive eruptions driven by caldera collapse

The largest effusive basaltic eruptions are associated with caldera collapse and are manifest through quasi-periodic ground displacements and moderate-size earthquakes^1-3, but the mechanism that governs their dynamics remains unclear. Here we provide a physical model that explains these processes, which accounts for both the quasi-periodic stick-slip collapse of the caldera roof and the long-term eruptive behaviour of the volcano. We show that it is the caldera collapse itself that sustains large effusive eruptions, and that triggering caldera collapse requires topography-generated pressures. The model is consistent with data from the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and allows us to estimate the properties of the plumbing system of the volcano. The results reveal that two reservoirs were active during the eruption, and place constraints on their connectivity. According to the model, the Kīlauea eruption stopped after slightly more than 60 per cent of its potential caldera collapse events, possibly owing to the presence of the second reservoir. Finally, we show that this physical framework is generally applicable to the largest instrumented caldera collapse eruptions of the past fifty years.

Increased respiratory morbidity associated with exposure to a mature volcanic plume from a large Icelandic fissure eruption

The 2014-15 Holuhraun eruption in Iceland was the largest fissure eruption in over 200 years, emitting prodigious amounts of gas and particulate matter into the troposphere. Reykjavík, the capital area of Iceland (250 km from eruption site) was exposed to air pollution events from advection of (i) a relatively young and chemically primitive volcanic plume with a high sulphur dioxide gas (SO2) to sulphate PM (SO42-) ratio, and (ii) an older and chemically mature volcanic plume with a low SO2/SO42- ratio. Whereas the advection and air pollution caused by the primitive plume were successfully forecast and forewarned in public advisories, the mature plume was not. Here, we show that exposure to the mature plume is associated with an increase in register-measured health care utilisation for respiratory disease by 23% (95% CI 19.7-27.4%) and for asthma medication dispensing by 19.3% (95% CI 9.6-29.1%). Absence of public advisories is associated with increases in visits to primary care medical doctors and to the hospital emergency department. We recommend that operational response to volcanic air pollution considers both primitive and mature types of plumes.

Caldera resurgence during the 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos Islands

Recent large basaltic eruptions began after only minor surface uplift and seismicity, and resulted in caldera subsidence. In contrast, some eruptions at Galápagos Island volcanoes are preceded by prolonged, large amplitude uplift and elevated seismicity. These systems also display long-term intra-caldera uplift, or resurgence. However, a scarcity of observations has obscured the mechanisms underpinning such behaviour. Here we combine a unique multiparametric dataset to show how the 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra contributed to caldera resurgence. Magma supply to a shallow reservoir drove 6.5 m of pre-eruptive uplift and seismicity over thirteen years, including an Mw5.4 earthquake that triggered the eruption. Although co-eruptive magma withdrawal resulted in 8.5 m of subsidence, net uplift of the inner-caldera on a trapdoor fault resulted in 1.5 m of permanent resurgence. These observations reveal the importance of intra-caldera faulting in affecting resurgence, and the mechanisms of eruption in the absence of well-developed rift systems.

The cascading origin of the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and implications for future forecasting

The 2018 summit and flank eruption of Kīlauea Volcano was one of the largest volcanic events in Hawai'i in 200 years. Data suggest that a backup in the magma plumbing system at the long-lived Pu'u 'Ō'ō eruption site caused widespread pressurization in the volcano, driving magma into the lower flank. The eruption evolved, and its impact expanded, as a sequence of cascading events, allowing relatively minor changes at Pu'u 'Ō'ō to cause major destruction and historic changes across the volcano. Eruption forecasting is inherently challenging in cascading scenarios where magmatic systems may prime gradually and trigger on small events.

Unexpected large eruptions from buoyant magma bodies within viscoelastic crust

Large volume effusive eruptions with relatively minor observed precursory signals are at odds with widely used models to interpret volcano deformation. Here we propose a new modelling framework that resolves this discrepancy by accounting for magma buoyancy, viscoelastic crustal properties, and sustained magma channels. At low magma accumulation rates, the stability of deep magma bodies is governed by the magma-host rock density contrast and the magma body thickness. During eruptions, inelastic processes including magma mush erosion and thermal effects, can form a sustained channel that supports magma flow, driven by the pressure difference between the magma body and surface vents. At failure onset, it may be difficult to forecast the final eruption volume; pressure in a magma body may drop well below the lithostatic load, create under-pressure and initiate a caldera collapse, despite only modest precursors.

From prodigious volcanic degassing to caldera subsidence and quiescence at Ambrym (Vanuatu): the influence of regional tectonics

Eruptive activity shapes volcanic edifices. The formation of broad caldera depressions is often associated with major collapse events, emplacing conspicuous pyroclastic deposits. However, caldera subsidence may also proceed silently by magma withdrawal at depth, more difficult to detect. Ambrym, a basaltic volcanic island, hosts a 12-km wide caldera and several intensely-degassing lava lakes confined to intra-caldera cones. Using satellite remote sensing of deformation, gas emissions and thermal anomalies, combined with seismicity and ground observations, we show that in December 2018 an intra-caldera eruption at Ambrym preceded normal faulting with >2 m of associated uplift along the eastern rift zone and 2.5 m of caldera-wide subsidence. Deformation was caused by lateral migration of >0.4 cubic kilometers of magma into the rift zone, extinguishing the lava lakes, and feeding a submarine eruption in the rift edge. Recurring rifting episodes, favored by stress induced by the D’Entrecasteaux Ridge collision against the New Hebrides arc, lead to progressive subsidence of Ambrym’s caldera and concurrent draining of the lava lakes. Although counterintuitive, convergent margin systems can induce rift zone volcanism and subsequent caldera subsidence.

Calderas collapse as magma flows into rifts

Recent caldera collapses show the importance of distant volcanic rift zones

Cyclic lava effusion during the 2018 eruption of Kīlauea Volcano

Lava flows present a recurring threat to communities on active volcanoes, and volumetric eruption rate is one of the primary factors controlling flow behavior and hazard. The time scales and driving forces of eruption rate variability, however, remain poorly understood. In 2018, a highly destructive eruption occurred on the lower flank of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, where the primary vent exhibited substantial cyclic eruption rates on both short (minutes) and long (tens of hours) time scales. We used multiparameter data to show that the short cycles were driven by shallow outgassing, whereas longer cycles were pressure-driven surges in magma supply triggered by summit caldera collapse events 40 kilometers upslope. The results provide a clear link between eruption rate fluctuations and their driving processes in the magmatic system.

Magma reservoir failure and the onset of caldera collapse at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018

Caldera-forming eruptions are among Earth’s most hazardous natural phenomena, yet the architecture of subcaldera magma reservoirs and the conditions that trigger collapse are poorly understood. Observations from the formation of a 0.8–cubic kilometer basaltic caldera at Kīlauea Volcano in 2018 included the draining of an active lava lake, which provided a window into pressure decrease in the reservoir. We show that failure began after <4% of magma was withdrawn from a shallow reservoir beneath the volcano’s summit, reducing its internal pressure by ~17 megapascals. Several cubic kilometers of magma were stored in the reservoir, and only a fraction was withdrawn before the end of the eruption. Thus, caldera formation may begin after withdrawal of only small amounts of magma and may end before source reservoirs are completely evacuated.

Crustal seismic velocity responds to a magmatic intrusion and seasonal loading in Iceland's Northern Volcanic Zone

Seismic noise interferometry is an exciting technique for studying volcanoes, providing a continuous measurement of seismic velocity changes (dv/v), which are sensitive to magmatic processes that affect the surrounding crust. However, understanding the exact mechanisms causing changes in dv/v is often difficult. We present dv/v measurements over 10 years in central Iceland, measured using single-station cross-component correlation functions from 51 instruments across a range of frequency bands. We observe a linear correlation between changes in dv/v and volumetric strain at stations in regions of both compression and dilatation associated with the 2014 Bárðarbunga-Holuhraun dike intrusion. Furthermore, a clear seasonal cycle in dv/v is modeled as resulting from elastic and poroelastic responses to changing snow thickness, atmospheric pressure, and groundwater level. This study comprehensively explains variations in dv/v arising from diverse crustal stresses and highlights the importance of deformation modeling when interpreting dv/v, with implications for volcano and environmental monitoring worldwide.

Very- and ultra-long-period seismic signals prior to and during caldera formation on La Réunion Island

Early detection of the onset of a caldera collapse can provide crucial information to understand their formation and thus to minimize risks for the nearby population and visitors. Here, we analyse the 2007 caldera collapse of Piton de la Fournaise on La Réunion Island recorded by a broadband seismic station. We show that this instrument recorded ultra-long period (ULP) signals with frequencies in the range (0.003-0.01 Hz) accompanied by very-long period (VLP) signals (between 0.02 and 0.50 Hz) prior to and during the caldera formation suggesting it is possible to detect the beginning of the collapse at depth and anticipate its surface formation. Interestingly, VLP wave packets with a similar duration of 20 s are identified prior to and during the caldera formation. We propose that these events could result from repeating piston-like successive collapses occurring through a ring-fault structure surrounding a magma reservoir from the following arguments: the source mechanism from the main collapse, the observations of slow source processes as well as observations from the field and the characteristic ring-fault seismicity.

Melt movement through the Icelandic crust

We use both seismology and geobarometry to investigate the movement of melt through the volcanic crust of Iceland. We have captured melt in the act of moving within or through a series of sills ranging from the upper mantle to the shallow crust by the clusters of small earthquakes it produces as it forces its way upward. The melt is injected not just beneath the central volcanoes, but also at discrete locations along the rift zones and above the centre of the underlying mantle plume. We suggest that the high strain rates required to produce seismicity at depths of 10-25 km in a normally ductile part of the Icelandic crust are linked to the exsolution of carbon dioxide from the basaltic melts. The seismicity and geobarometry provide complementary information on the way that the melt moves through the crust, stalling and fractionating, and often freezing in one or more melt lenses on its way upwards: the seismicity shows what is happening instantaneously today, while the geobarometry gives constraints averaged over longer time scales on the depths of residence in the crust of melts prior to their eruption. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Magma reservoir architecture and dynamics'.

Architecture and dynamics of magma reservoirs

This introductory article provides a synopsis of our current understanding of the form and dynamics of magma reservoirs in the crust. This knowledge is based on a range of experimental, observational and theoretical approaches, some of which are multidisclipinary and pioneering. We introduce and provide a contextual background for the papers in this issue, which cover a wide range of topics, encompassing magma storage, transport, behaviour and rheology, as well as the timescales on which magma reservoirs operate. We summarize the key findings that emerged from the meeting and the challenges that remain. The study of magma reservoirs has wide implications not only for understanding geothermal and magmatic systems, but also for natural oil and gas reservoirs and for ore deposit formation. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Magma reservoir architecture and dynamics'.

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kīlauea Volcano

In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 kilometers. A 4 May earthquake [moment magnitude (M _w) 6.9] produced ~5 meters of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 cubic meters per second, eventually covering 35.5 square kilometers. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M _w 4.7 to 5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent-about 0.8 cubic kilometers. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

Possible deep connection between volcanic systems evidenced by sequential assimilation of geodetic data

The existence of possible deep connections between nearby volcanoes has so far only been formulated on the basis of correlation in their eruptive activities or geochemical arguments. The use of geodetic data to monitor the deep dynamics of magmatic systems and the possible interference between them has remained limited due to the lack of techniques to follow transient processes. Here, for the first time, we use sequential data assimilation technique (Ensemble Kalman Filter) on ground displacement data to evaluate a possible interplay between the activities of Grímsvötn and Bárðarbunga volcanoes in Iceland. Using a two-reservoir dynamical model for the Grímsvötn plumbing system and assuming a fixed geometry and constant magma properties, we retrieve the temporal evolution of the basal magma inflow beneath Grímsvötn that drops by up to 85% during the 10 months preceding the initiation of the Bárðarbunga rifting event. We interpret the loss of at least 0.016 km3 in the magma supply of Grímsvötn as a consequence of magma accumulation beneath Bárðarbunga and subsequent feeding of the Holuhraun eruption 41 km away. We demonstrate that, in addition to its interest for predicting volcanic eruptions, sequential assimilation of geodetic data has a unique potential to give insights into volcanic system roots.

Melt inclusion constraints on petrogenesis of the 2014-2015 Holuhraun eruption, Iceland

The 2014-2015 Holuhraun eruption, on the Bárðarbunga volcanic system in central Iceland, was one of the best-monitored basaltic fissure eruptions that has ever occurred, and presents a unique opportunity to link petrological and geochemical data with geophysical observations during a major rifting episode. We present major and trace element analyses of melt inclusions and matrix glasses from a suite of ten samples collected over the course of the Holuhraun eruption. The diversity of trace element ratios such as La/Yb in Holuhraun melt inclusions reveals that the magma evolved via concurrent mixing and crystallization of diverse primary melts in the mid-crust. Using olivine-plagioclase-augite-melt (OPAM) barometry, we calculate that the Holuhraun carrier melt equilibrated at 2.1 ± 0.7 kbar (7.5 ± 2.5 km), which is in agreement with the depths of earthquakes (6 ± 1 km) between Bárðarbunga central volcano and the eruption site in the days preceding eruption onset. Using the same approach, melt inclusions equilibrated at pressures between 0.5 and 8.0 kbar, with the most probable pressure being 3.2 kbar. Diffusion chronometry reveals minimum residence timescales of 1-12 days for melt inclusion-bearing macrocrysts in the Holuhraun carrier melt. By combining timescales of diffusive dehydration of melt inclusions with the calculated pressure of H2O saturation for the Holuhraun magma, we calculate indicative magma ascent rates of 0.12-0.29 m s-1. Our petrological and geochemical data are consistent with lateral magma transport from Bárðarbunga volcano to the eruption site in a shallow- to mid-crustal dyke, as has been suggested on the basis of seismic and geodetic datasets. This result is a significant step forward in reconciling petrological and geophysical interpretations of magma transport during volcano-tectonic episodes, and provides a critical framework for the interpretation of premonitory seismic and geodetic data in volcanically active regions.

Effects of Host-rock Fracturing on Elastic-deformation Source Models of Volcano Deflation

Volcanoes commonly inflate or deflate during episodes of unrest or eruption. Continuum mechanics models that assume linear elastic deformation of the Earth’s crust are routinely used to invert the observed ground motions. The source(s) of deformation in such models are generally interpreted in terms of magma bodies or pathways, and thus form a basis for hazard assessment and mitigation. Using discontinuum mechanics models, we show how host-rock fracturing (i.e. non-elastic deformation) during drainage of a magma body can progressively change the shape and depth of an elastic-deformation source. We argue that this effect explains the marked spatio-temporal changes in source model attributes inferred for the March-April 2007 eruption of Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Reunion. We find that pronounced deflation-related host-rock fracturing can: (1) yield inclined source model geometries for a horizontal magma body; (2) cause significant upward migration of an elastic-deformation source, leading to underestimation of the true magma body depth and potentially to a misinterpretation of ascending magma; and (3) at least partly explain underestimation by elastic–deformation sources of changes in sub-surface magma volume.

Forecasting Effusive Dynamics and Decompression Rates by Magmastatic Model at Open-vent Volcanoes

Effusive eruptions at open-conduit volcanoes are interpreted as reactions to a disequilibrium induced by the increase in magma supply. By comparing four of the most recent effusive eruptions at Stromboli volcano (Italy), we show how the volumes of lava discharged during each eruption are linearly correlated to the topographic positions of the effusive vents. This correlation cannot be explained by an excess of pressure within a deep magma chamber and raises questions about the actual contributions of deep magma dynamics. We derive a general model based on the discharge of a shallow reservoir and the magmastatic crustal load above the vent, to explain the linear link. In addition, we show how the drastic transition from effusive to violent explosions can be related to different decompression rates. We suggest that a gravity-driven model can shed light on similar cases of lateral effusive eruptions in other volcanic systems and can provide evidence of the roles of slow decompression rates in triggering violent paroxysmal explosive eruptions, which occasionally punctuate the effusive phases at basaltic volcanoes.

Micrometre-scale deformation observations reveal fundamental controls on geological rifting

Many of the world’s largest volcanic eruptions are associated with geological rifting where major fractures open at the Earth’s surface, yet fundamental controls on the near-surface response to the rifting process are lacking. New high resolution observations gleaned from seismometer data during the 2014 Bárðarbunga basaltic dyke intrusion in Iceland allow us unprecedented access to the associated graben formation process on both sub-second and micrometre scales. We find that what appears as quasi steady-state near-surface rifting on lower resolution GPS observation comprises discrete staccato-like deformation steps as the upper crust unzips through repetitive low magnitude (M_W < 0) failures on fracture patches estimated between 300 m² and 1200 m² in size. Stress drops for these events are one to two orders of magnitude smaller than expected for tectonic earthquakes, demonstrating that the uppermost crust in the rift zone is exceptionally weak.