Fracturing and tectonic stress drive ultrarapid magma flow into dikes

Many examples of exposed giant dike swarms can be found where lateral magma flow has exceeded hundreds of kilometers. We show that massive magma flow into dikes can be established with only modest overpressure in a magma body if a large enough pathway opens at its boundary and gradual buildup of high tensile stress has occurred along the dike pathway prior to the onset of diking. This explains rapid initial magma flow rates, modeled up to about 7400 cubic meters per second into a dike ~15-kilometers long, which propagated under the town of Grindavík, Southwest Iceland, in November 2023. Such high flow rates provide insight into the formation of major dikes and imply a serious hazard potential for high-flow rate intrusions that propagate to the surface and transition into eruptions.

Deformation and seismicity decline before the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption

Increased rates of deformation and seismicity are well-established precursors to volcanic eruptions, and their interpretation forms the basis for eruption warnings worldwide. Rates of ground displacement and the number of earthquakes escalate before many eruptions^1-3, as magma forces its way towards the surface. However, the pre-eruptive patterns of deformation and seismicity vary widely. Here we show how an eruption beginning on 19 March 2021 at Fagradalsfjall, Iceland, was preceded by a period of tectonic stress release ending with a decline in deformation and seismicity over several days preceding the eruption onset. High rates of deformation and seismicity occurred from 24 February to mid-March in relation to gradual emplacement of an approximately 9-km-long magma-filled dyke, between the surface and 8 km depth (volume approximately 34 × 10⁶ m³), as well as the triggering of strike-slip earthquakes up to magnitude M_W 5.64. As stored tectonic stress was systematically released, there was less lateral migration of magma and a reduction in both the deformation rates and seismicity. Weaker crust near the surface may also have contributed to reduced seismicity, as the depth of active magma emplacement progressively shallowed. This demonstrates that the interaction between volcanoes and tectonic stress as well as crustal layering need to be fully considered when forecasting eruptions.

Unexpected large eruptions from buoyant magma bodies within viscoelastic crust

Large volume effusive eruptions with relatively minor observed precursory signals are at odds with widely used models to interpret volcano deformation. Here we propose a new modelling framework that resolves this discrepancy by accounting for magma buoyancy, viscoelastic crustal properties, and sustained magma channels. At low magma accumulation rates, the stability of deep magma bodies is governed by the magma-host rock density contrast and the magma body thickness. During eruptions, inelastic processes including magma mush erosion and thermal effects, can form a sustained channel that supports magma flow, driven by the pressure difference between the magma body and surface vents. At failure onset, it may be difficult to forecast the final eruption volume; pressure in a magma body may drop well below the lithostatic load, create under-pressure and initiate a caldera collapse, despite only modest precursors.

Gradual caldera collapse at Bárdarbunga volcano, Iceland, regulated by lateral magma outflow

Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with a collapse of the roof of a crustal magma reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century, and the lack of detailed observations has obscured insight into the mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use multiparameter geophysical and geochemical data to show that the 110-square-kilometer and 65-meter-deep collapse of Bárdarbunga caldera in 2014-2015 was initiated through withdrawal of magma, and lateral migration through a 48-kilometers-long dike, from a 12-kilometers deep reservoir. Interaction between the pressure exerted by the subsiding reservoir roof and the physical properties of the subsurface flow path explain the gradual, near-exponential decline of both collapse rate and the intensity of the 180-day-long eruption.