COVID-19 recovery funds dwarf clean energy investment needs

How do Fintech and green bonds ensure clean energy production in China? Dynamics of green investment risk

This study inquiry examines the vital role that Fintech and green bonds play in ensuring that China generates clean energy in a comprehensive manner, taking into consideration the mechanisms of green investment risk. This paper provides exciting new insights on the link between financial technology (Fintech), green bonds, and China's clean energy economy by using a reliable approach and doing an in-depth data analysis. The findings provide a significant contribution to our understanding of how Fintech may help enable financing for renewable energy projects by using digital platforms, mobile payment technologies, and blockchain technology to boost investor confidence and accessibility to funds for clean energy projects. This aspect of green bonds is emphasized since the study highlights the importance of sustainable energy generation. The need of proactive regulatory frameworks that are able to adjust to the shifting Fintech and green bond markets while supporting good policies, motivating factors, and efficient risk management procedures is emphasized in the research. The study contributes to the enlightenment of academic discourse, focuses efforts at policymaking, and gives knowledge that is helpful to people who are working to promote a greener and more sustainable future.

Eco-Friendly and COVID-19 Friendly? Decreasing the Carbon Footprint of the Operating Room in the COVID-19 Era

Surgery is one of the most energy-intensive branches of healthcare. Although the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced surgical volumes, infection control protocols have increased the ecological footprint of surgery owing to the extensive use of personal protective equipment, sanitation, testing and isolation resources. The burden of environmental diseases requiring surgical care, the international commitment towards environmental sustainability and the global efforts to return to the pre-pandemic surgical workflow call for action towards climate-friendly surgery. The authors have searched the peer-reviewed and gray literature for clinical studies, reports and guidelines related to the ecological footprint of surgical care and the available solutions and frameworks to reduce it. Numerous studies concede that surgery is associated with a high rate of energy utilization and waste generation that is comparable to major non-medical sources of pollution. Recommendations and research questions outlining environmentally sustainable models of surgical practices span from sanitation and air quality improvement systems to the allocation of non-recyclable consumables and energy-efficient surgical planning. The latter are particularly relevant to infection control protocols for COVID-19. Paving the way towards climate-friendly surgery is a worthy endeavor with a major potential to improve surgical practice and outcomes in the long term.

Collateral damage: has the COVID-19 pandemic more strongly impacted medical research than other scientific areas?

The principle of resource allocation states that diversion of resources to attend a function may compromise others. The COVID-19 pandemic required a rapid response with a justifiable relocation of equipment, funds and human resources. Based on the ecological principle of allocation, we tested whether the relocation of resources to support COVID-19 research was more detrimental to medical research than to research in other scientific areas. We compared the yearly number of published articles from 2015 to 2021 using disease-related keywords and non-medical scientific keywords. Contrary to the expectation, we found an abrupt reduction in the publication rates in all research areas from 2019 to 2020 or 2021, compared to the pre-pandemic period (2015-2019). The allocation effect on medical research may be overshadowed by stronger effects of the pandemic, or it may become evident in the coming years. The drastic reduction in published papers could have negative consequences for scientific advancements, including understanding and curing diseases other than COVID-19 that strongly affect humanity.

Pathway through which COVID-19 exacerbates energy poverty and proposed relief measures

Increased residential energy consumption and reduced income caused by the lockdown measures invoked to combat the COVID-19 pandemic have deepened energy poverty, particularly in vulnerable communities. In this context, the pathway through which COVID-19 impacts energy poverty is constructed, and six relief measures are proposed: consistent financing of energy suppliers and consumers, developing various forms of socio-economic aids, leveraging fiscal stimuli to promote renewable energy transition, identifying vulnerable populations to improve policy effectiveness, designing equitable resource allocation mechanisms, and rethinking socio-economic transition in the post-pandemic era.

Technical and economic approach to aim the feasibility of renewables in the Italian context

To date, despite the existence of the sustainability goals of the 2030 Agenda and the need for an energy transition, the results set is still quite far away from being achieved. The awareness of this situation moves many European countries to promote policies based on the use of renewable sources. This paper is aimed at illustrating the Italian legislative context, evaluating the effectiveness of the introduced incentives, according to parameters that affect the productivity of a photovoltaic system. It is also aimed at helping to bridge the gap linked to the relationship between incentives and energy transition, also with regard to renewables. The research focuses on an evaluation methodology, based on technical and economic standards and it is accompanied by a case-study. In order to analyze the productivity of the photovoltaic system, all the main input factors that could affect the technical and economic performance of the system were investigated. In particular, solar potential analysis, shading elements, installation place, azimuth, tilt of modules and technology. For the economic valuations, the discounted cash flow method was used. The results obtained show that some Italian regions, particularly those in the north, should prefer other forms of renewables, such as hydroelectric and geothermal, and that the FER1 decree is not suitable for the promotion of solar photovoltaics in some areas. The research shows also that policies on renewables should be calibrated according to the intrinsic features of the place where they are located and have to be related to the built heritage they will interface, in the light of technological and plant system aspects.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10098-023-02497-0.

Pandemic urban development is leading us away from nature

Recovery plans in Europe in the COVID-19 pandemic era have stimulated construction-led development, which has eclipsed nature-based agendas in terms of scale, size, and policy. One estimate is that only 0.3% of spending on urban infrastructure globally is directed towards various nature-based solutions and other ecosystem efforts supporting human well-being. In the future we will urgently need to employ nature-based approaches in crisis management for the power and potential of nature to be fully employed in pursuit of urban recovery. We strongly recommend that nature-based approaches be an explicit requirement to secure funding for future recovery plans.

Effects of global shocks on the evolution of an interconnected world

As the world grows more interconnected through the flows of people, goods, and information, many challenges are becoming more difficult to address since human needs are increasingly being met through global supply chains. Global shocks (e.g., war, economic recession, pandemic) can severely disrupt these interconnections and generate cascading consequences across local to global scales. To comprehensively evaluate these consequences, it is crucial to use integrated frameworks that consider multiple interconnections and flows among coupled human and natural systems. Here we use the framework of metacoupling (human-nature interactions within as well as across adjacent and distant systems) to illustrate the effects of major global shocks on the evolution of global interconnectedness between the early 1900s and the 2010s. Based on these results we make a few actionable recommendations to reduce the negative impacts of an ongoing global shock, the COVID-19 pandemic, to promote global sustainability.

Upcoming Transformations in Integrated Energy/Chemicals Sectors: Some Challenges and Several Opportunities

The sociopolitical events over the past few years led to transformative changes in both the energy and chemical sectors. One of the most evident consequences of these events is the significant focus on sustainability. In fact, rather than an engaging discussion within elite social circles, the search for sustainability is now one of the hard requirements investors impose on companies. The concept of sustainability itself has developed since its inception, and now it encompasses environmental as well as socioeconomic aspects. The major players in the energy and chemical sectors seem to embrace these changes and the related challenges; in most cases, tangible ambitious goals have been proposed. For example, bp aims "to become a net zero company by 2050 or sooner, and to help the world get to net zero". Although tragic events such as the war in Ukraine directly affect global supply chains, leading to some reconsiderations in medium-term industrial and political strategies, trends and public demands seem determined to pursue ambitious sustainable goals, as tangible as the European Union's "Fit for 55" climate package, approved on May 12, 2022, which effectively bans internal combustion engines for new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles from 2035. These trends will likely lead to profound changes in both the chemical and energy sectors. While some predictions may miss the target, speculating about upcoming challenges and opportunities could help us prepare for the future. This is the purpose of this brief Perspective.

COVID-19 recovery packages can benefit climate targets and clean energy jobs, but scale of impacts and optimal investment portfolios differ among major economies

To meet the Paris temperature targets and recover from the effects of the pandemic, many countries have launched economic recovery plans, including specific elements to promote clean energy technologies and green jobs. However, how to successfully manage investment portfolios of green recovery packages to optimize both climate mitigation and employment benefits remains unclear. Here, we use three energy-economic models, combined with a portfolio analysis approach, to find optimal low-carbon technology subsidy combinations in six major emitting regions: Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, and the United States (US). We find that, although numerical estimates differ given different model structures, results consistently show that a >50% investment in solar photovoltaics is more likely to enable CO₂ emissions reduction and green jobs, particularly in the EU and China. Our study illustrates the importance of strategically managing investment portfolios in recovery packages to enable optimal outcomes and foster a post-pandemic green economy.

A low-carbon transition is urgently needed to meet the 1.5C Paris climate targets. The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, however, has imposed widespread economic burdens, including declines in investments and employment, which have hindered the development of many sectors, including clean energy. There is an opportunity to combine post-pandemic recovery packages with green growth aspirations, but the extent to which investments can be managed in a way that achieves both employment growth and greenhouse gas emissions reductions, given varying socioeconomic conditions, remains unclear. We attempt to resolve this issue by evaluating different investment strategies across six major emitters (Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, and the US) using three energy-economic computational models. Our estimates suggest that green recovery plans should allocate at least 50% of funds to solar power production to obtain both CO₂ emissions reductions and employment gains. This is particularly the case in the EU and China.

Understanding the complexity of existing fossil fuel power plant decarbonization

Growing national decarbonization commitments require rapid and deep reductions of carbon dioxide emissions from existing fossil-fuel power plants. Although retrofitting existing plants with carbon capture and storage or biomass has been discussed extensively, yet such options have failed to provide evident emission reductions at a global scale so far. Assessments of decarbonization technologies tend to focus on one specific option but omit its interactions with competing technologies and related sectors (e.g., water, food, and land use). Energy system models could mimic such inter-technological and inter-sectoral competition but often aggregate plant-level parameters without validation, as well as fleet-level inputs with large variability and uncertainty. To enhance the accuracy and reliability of top-down optimization models, bottom-up plant-level experience accumulation is of vital importance. Identifying sweet spots for plant-level pilot projects, overcoming the technical, financial, and social obstacles of early large-scale demonstration projects, incorporating equity into the transition, propagating the plant-level potential to generate fleet-level impacts represent some key complexity of existing fossil-fuel power plant decarbonization challenges that imposes the need for a serious re-evaluation of existing fossil fuel power plant abatement in energy transition.

Compound impacts of extreme weather events and Covid-19 on climate mobilities

Weather and climate-related human mobility (climate mobilities) including displacement are often viewed as security concerns. The recent coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic adds yet another layer of complexity which calls for unpacking these connections. This paper explores how existing patterns of migration and displacement that are driven by climate change impacts compound with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. First, the paper outlines the links between extreme weather events and human mobility to then explore how the impacts from COVID-19 interact, cascade and compound pre-existing vulnerabilities of people on the move. Examining the ways in which climate change is potentially driving or shifting patterns of climate mobility allows to gain a shared understanding of this complex issue. This paper contextualises the compounding impacts with a geographical focus on Bangladesh, a well-known climate hotspot. The paper contributes to the debates on impacts and human responses to climate change and concludes with a set of policy recommendations.

The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly

Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO₂eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO₂eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO₂eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO₂eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11027-022-10018-5.

Quantifying the impacts of COVID-19 on Sustainable Development Goals using machine learning models

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed severe threats to global sustainable development. However, a comprehensive quantitative assessment of the impacts of COVID-19 on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is still lacking. This research quantified the post-COVID-19 SDG progress from 2020 to 2024 using projected GDP growth and population and machine learning models including support vector machine, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting. The results show that the overall SDG performance declined by 7.7% in 2020 at the global scale, with 12 socioeconomic SDG performance decreasing by 3.0–22.3% and 4 environmental SDG performance increasing by 1.6–9.2%. By 2024, the progress of 12 SDGs will lag behind for one to eight years compared to their pre-COVID-19 trajectories, while extra time will be gained for 4 environment-related SDGs. Furthermore, the pandemic will cause more impacts on countries in emerging markets and developing economies than those on advanced economies, and the latter will recover more quickly to be closer to their pre-COVID-19 trajectories by 2024. Post-COVID-19 economic recovery should emphasize in areas that can help decouple economic growth from negative environmental impacts. The results can help government and non-state stakeholders identify critical areas for targeted policy to resume and speed up the progress to achieve SDGs by 2030.

Current global efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C

Human activities have caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and the current emissions trajectory suggests that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years. Though the growth rate of global carbon dioxide emissions has slowed and many countries have strengthened their emissions targets, current midcentury net zero goals are insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5°C above preindustrial temperatures. The primary barriers to the achievement of a 1.5°C-compatible pathway are not geophysical but rather reflect inertia in our political and technological systems. Both political and corporate leadership are needed to overcome this inertia, supported by increased societal recognition of the need for system-level and individual lifestyle changes. The available evidence does not yet indicate that the world has seriously committed to achieving the 1.5°C goal.

Paris Agreement requires substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond COVID-19 public stimulus packages

It has been claimed that COVID-19 public stimulus packages could be sufficient to meet the short-term energy investment needs to leverage a shift toward a pathway consistent with the 1.5 °C target of the Paris Agreement. Here, we provide complementary perspectives to reiterate that substantial, broad, and sustained policy efforts beyond stimulus packages will be needed for achieving the Paris Agreement long-term targets. Low-carbon investments will need to scale up and persist over the next several decades following short-term stimulus packages. The required total energy investments in the real world can be larger than the currently available estimates from integrated assessment models (IAMs). Existing databases from IAMs are not sufficient for analyzing the effect of public spending on emission reduction. To inform what role COVID-19 stimulus packages and public investments may play for reaching the Paris Agreement targets, explicit modelling of such policies is required.

Towards smart energy systems – A survey about the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on renewable energy research

The COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on renewable energy. This work investigates the effect of pandemic on the renewable energy research from four aspects: the regional cooperation model of renewable energy research, the research hotspots of renewable energy during the pandemic, the development trend of renewable energy research hotspots in the post-pandemic, policy recommendations for development in the post-epidemic era. Systematic literature review (SLR), latent semantic analysis (LSA), and machine learning–based analysis (principle component analysis) are used to analyze the relevant literature on the COVID-19 and renewable energy in the Scopus database. The results of geographic visualization analysis show the COVID-19 pandemic has not hindered but promoted bilateral cooperation in the field of renewable energy among the " the Belt and Road " partner countries, with China at the core. The results of visual analysis of research hotspots show the research in the field of renewable energy during pandemics is divided into two categories: “opportunities” and “crisis”, and further obtained five categories: sustainable development, environmental management, carbon emission, solar photovoltaic power, and wind power. The results of the keyword evolution map indicate the two main directions of renewable energy research in the post-pandemic: (1) Clean energy investment has become an important measure to revitalize the economy after the epidemic. (2) Energy efficiency research will effectively promote the sustainable development of renewable energy. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions on how to build a smart energy system in the post-epidemic era.

Effective Radiative Forcings Due To Anthropogenic Emission Changes Under Covid-19 and Post-Pandemic Recovery Scenarios

With the continuation of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic, the impacts of this catastrophe on anthropogenic emissions are no longer limited to its early stage. This study quantitatively estimates effective radiative forcings (ERFs) due to anthropogenic well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) and aerosols for the period 2020-2050 under the three latest Covid-19 economic-recovery scenarios using an aerosol-climate model. The results indicate that reductions in both WMGHG and aerosol emissions under the Covid-19 green recoveries lead to increases ranging from 0 to 0.3 W m^-2 in global annual mean anthropogenic ERF over the period 2020-2050 relative to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 scenario (the baseline case). These positive ERFs are mainly attributed to the rapid and dramatic decreases in atmospheric aerosol content that increase net shortwave radiative flux at the top of atmosphere via weakening the direct aerosol effect and low cloud cover. At the regional scale, reductions in aerosols contribute to positive ERFs throughout the Northern Hemisphere, while the decreased WMGHGs dominate negative ERFs over the areas away from aerosol pollution, such as the Southern Hemisphere oceans. This drives a strong interhemispheric contrast of ERFs. In contrast, the increased anthropogenic emissions under the fossil-fueled recovery scenario lead to an increase of 0.3 W m^-2 in global annual mean ERF in 2050 compared with the baseline case, primarily due to the contribution of WMGHG ERFs. The regional ERF changes are highly dependent on local cloud radiative effects.

The perceived effectiveness and hidden inequity of postpandemic fiscal stimuli

Trillions in postpandemic stimuli present a prime opportunity to shape a climate-proof and equitable future. Herein, we compare the economic effectiveness and equity impacts of currently pledged stimuli and their green alternatives. Our findings reveal that while low-carbon stimuli are more effective (saving 1 million to 2 million more jobs) and more equitable (creating more jobs for low-skilled workers and decreasing global income inequality by 2 to 3%) than currently pledged stimuli on the global level, there are significant country-by-country variations. Some countries experience environmental benefits and equity at the expense of job savings as their sectoral composition and labor intensity change. Our study suggests the overall promise of green stimuli, but a careful country-specific approach in adoption.

Modeling potential impact of COVID-19 pandemic on global electric vehicle supply chain

The on-going COVID-19 pandemic and consequent lockdowns cast significant impacts on global economy in the short run. Their impact on stability of global electric vehicles (EVs) supply chain and thus our climate ambition in the long run, however, remains hitherto largely unexplored. We aim to address this gap based on an integrated model framework, including assessing supply risks of 17 selected core commodities throughout the EV supply chain and further applying the supply constraints to project future EV sales until 2030. Our model results under three pandemic development scenarios indicate that if the pandemic is effectively contained before 2024, the global EV industry will recover without fundamentally scathed and thus can maintain the same growth trend as in the no-pandemic scenario by 2030. We suggest that fiscal stimulus in the postpandemic era should be directed more toward upgrading the quality of battery products, rather than expanding the production capacity.

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Lithium is the most critical commodity for the electric vehicle industry

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Short-term COVID-19 pandemic will not cause constraints on the production side

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Long-term pandemic can seriously jeopardize electric vehicle market development

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Postpandemic policies should focus more on improving battery quality

Substitution of social sustainability concerns under the Covid-19 pandemic

Think tanks and political leaders have raised concerns about the implications that the Covid-19 response and reconstruction might have on other social objectives that were setting the international agenda before the Covid-19 pandemic. We present evidence for eight consecutive weeks during April-May 2020 for Austria, testing the extent to which Covid-19 concerns substitute other social concerns such as the climate crisis or the protection of vulnerable sectors of the society. We measure behavior in a simple donation task where participants receive €3 that they can distribute between themselves and a list of charitable organizations, which vary between treatments. We consider initially a list of eight charities, including a broad set of social concerns. Results show that introducing the WHO Covid-19 Solidarity Response Fund significantly reduces the sum of donations to the original eight charities. This derives from two effects: First, introducing the Covid-19 Solidarity Response Fund does not significantly change aggregate donations. Second, results point to a high support to the WHO Covid-19 Fund. Overall, our results indicate that donations to diverse social concerns are partially substituted by donations to the Covid-19 fund; yet, this substitution does not fully replace all other social concerns. Results are robust to a 10-fold increase in endowment, with decisions made over €30.

The Effects of Social Protection and Social Cohesion on the Acceptability of Climate Change Mitigation Policies: What Do We (Not) Know in the Context of Low- and Middle-Income Countries?

Significant climate change mitigation policies are urgently needed to achieve emissions reduction targets. This paper shows that social protection and social cohesion play a critical role in making climate policies more acceptable to citizens by summarizing existing streams of research focusing on industrialized countries. Further, the empirical analysis explores whether these relationships also hold for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), which are increasingly implementing climate change mitigation policies. The results show that vertical and horizontal trust increase acceptability in all countries. However, preferences for social protection have a positive effect only in industrialized ones. This may suggest a contrast between social and environmental goals in LMICs, where social goals are prioritized. The analysis also revealed a significant interaction between social cohesion and social protection. The paper concludes by discussing the existing research gap as to LMICs and outlines policy options to overcome the conflict between social and environmental goals.

Radiative effects of reduced aerosol emissions during the COVID-19 pandemic and the future recovery

The pandemic in 2020 caused an abrupt change in the emission of anthropogenic aerosols and their precursors. We estimate the associated change in the aerosol radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface. To that end, we perform new simulations with the CMIP6 global climate model EC-Earth3. The simulations use the here newly created data for the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated effect on clouds from the simple plumes parameterization (MACv2-SP), based on revised SO₂ and NH₃ emission scenarios. Our results highlight the small impact of the pandemic on the global aerosol radiative forcing in 2020 compared to the CMIP6 scenario SSP2-4.5 of the order of +0.04 Wm^-2, which is small compared to the natural year-to-year variability in the radiation budget. Natural variability also limits the ability to detect a meaningful regional difference in the anthropogenic aerosol radiative effects. We identify the best chances to find a significant change in radiation at the surface during cloud-free conditions for regions that were strongly polluted in the past years. The post-pandemic recovery scenarios indicate a spread in the aerosol forcing of -0.68 to -0.38 Wm^-2 for 2050 relative to the pre-industrial, which translates to a difference of +0.05 to -0.25 Wm^-2 compared to the 2050 baseline from SSP2-4.5. This spread falls within the present-day uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing and the CMIP6 spread in aerosol forcing at the end of the 21st century. We release the new MACv2-SP data for studies on the climate response to the pandemic and the recovery scenarios. Our 2050 forcing estimates suggest that sustained aerosol emission reductions during the post-pandemic recovery cause a stronger climate response than in 2020, i.e., there is a delayed influence of the pandemic on climate.

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

Comprehensive policy measures are needed to close the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions and emissions goals of the Paris Agreement. Here the authors present a Bridge scenario that may aid in closing the emissions gap by 2030.

Climate mitigation policies and the potential pathways to conflict: Outlining a research agenda

Climate policies will need to incentivize transformative societal changes if they are to achieve emission reductions consistent with 1.5°C temperature targets. To contribute to efforts for aligning climate policy with broader societal goals, specifically those related to sustainable development, we identify the effects of climate mitigation policy on aspects of socioeconomic development that are known determinants of conflict and evaluate the plausibility and importance of potential pathways to armed conflict and political violence. Conditional on preexisting societal tensions and socioeconomic vulnerabilities, we isolate effects on economic performance, income and livelihood, food and energy prices, and land tenure as most likely to increase conflict risks. Climate policy designs may be critical to moderate these risks as different designs can promote more favorable societal outcomes such as equity and inclusion. Coupling research with careful monitoring and evaluation of the intermediate societal effects at early stages of policy implementation will be a critical part of learning and moderating potential conflict risks. Importantly, better characterizing the future conflict risks under climate policy allows for a more comprehensive comparison to the conflict risk if mitigation is not implemented and graver climate damages are experienced. This article is categorized under:The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Benefits of Mitigation.

Pessimism and Optimism in the Debate on Climate Change: A Critical Analysis

In the debate on climate change commentators often express pessimistic or optimistic views. We see this mainly in the media and popular literature, but also in various academic fields. The aim of this paper is to investigate different kinds of pessimistic and optimistic views put forward in this debate and suggest explanations of the diversity of views. The paper concludes that pessimism and optimism may concern, for example, climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process, mitigation of climate change or specific measures of mitigation. These aspects are important to distinguish, because a person can be pessimist concerning climate change as an unmitigated or poorly mitigated process and optimist concerning mitigation of climate change, and be pessimist concerning one specific mitigation measure and optimist concerning another. It is suggested that the diversity of pessimistic and optimistic views is due to the uncertainty of scientific climate models and the influence of evaluative and ideological assumptions.

Faster or slower decarbonization? Policymaker and stakeholder expectations on the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global energy transition

The COVID-19 pandemic might have tremendous consequences on decarbonization efforts across the globe. Understanding governments' policy action in the short and medium term is key to assess whether the response to the crisis will crowd out or fast-track decarbonization efforts. We surveyed over 200 policymakers and stakeholders from 55 different countries to collect climate policy expectations in various sectors and regions in the next five years. While support for high-emitting sectors is not expected to dissolve completely, commitment to policies supporting the transition to low-carbon energy and transport sectors is expected to increase substantially. This is true for OECD and Asian countries, representing approximately 90% of global emissions. Our results suggest that expectations that the COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate decarbonization efforts are widely shared.

COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic in 2020. In response, most countries in the world implemented lockdowns, restricting their population's movements, work, education, gatherings, and general activities in attempt to "flatten the curve" of COVID-19 cases. The public health goal of lockdowns was to save the population from COVID-19 cases and deaths, and to prevent overwhelming health care systems with COVID-19 patients. In this narrative review I explain why I changed my mind about supporting lockdowns. The initial modeling predictions induced fear and crowd-effects (i.e., groupthink). Over time, important information emerged relevant to the modeling, including the lower infection fatality rate (median 0.23%), clarification of high-risk groups (specifically, those 70 years of age and older), lower herd immunity thresholds (likely 20-40% population immunity), and the difficult exit strategies. In addition, information emerged on significant collateral damage due to the response to the pandemic, adversely affecting many millions of people with poverty, food insecurity, loneliness, unemployment, school closures, and interrupted healthcare. Raw numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths were difficult to interpret, and may be tempered by information placing the number of COVID-19 deaths in proper context and perspective relative to background rates. Considering this information, a cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 finds that lockdowns are far more harmful to public health (at least 5-10 times so in terms of wellbeing years) than COVID-19 can be. Controversies and objections about the main points made are considered and addressed. Progress in the response to COVID-19 depends on considering the trade-offs discussed here that determine the wellbeing of populations. I close with some suggestions for moving forward, including focused protection of those truly at high risk, opening of schools, and building back better with a economy.

Building up an ecologically sustainable and socially desirable post-COVID-19 future

COVID-19 crisis has emphasized how poorly prepared humanity is to cope with global disasters. However, this crisis also offers a unique opportunity to move towards a more sustainable and equitable future. Here, we identify the underlying environmental, social, and economic chronic causes of the COVID-19 crisis. We argue in favour of a holistic view to initiate a socio-economic transition to improve the prospects for global sustainability and human well-being. Alternative approaches to "Business-As-Usual" for guiding the transition are already available for implementation. Yet, to ensure a successful and just transition, we need to change our priorities towards environmental integrity and well-being. This necessarily means environmental justice, a different worldview and a closer relationship with nature.