Prevalence of autistic spectrum disorders in Lothian, Scotland: an estimate using the "capture-recapture" technique

The global prevalence of autism spectrum disorder: A three-level meta-analysis

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is one the most disabling developmental disorders, imposing an extremely high economic burden. Obtaining as accurate prevalence estimates as possible is crucial to guide governments in planning policies for identification and intervention for individuals with ASD and their relatives. The precision of prevalence estimates can be heightened by summative analyses of the data collected around the world. To that end, we conducted a three-level mixed-effects meta-analysis. A systematic search of the Web of Science, PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases from 2000 up to 13 July 2020 was performed, and reference lists of previous reviews and existing databases of prevalence studies were screened. Overall, 79 studies were included in the analysis of ASD and 59-in the analysis of previously existing relevant diagnoses: 30 for Autistic Disorder (AD), 15 for Asperger Syndrome (AS), and 14 for Atypical Autism (AA) and Pervasive Developmental Disorder - Not Otherwise Specified (PDD-NOS); these research reports covered the period from 1994 to 2019. Pooled prevalence estimates were 0.72% (95% CI = 0.61-0.85) for ASD, 0.25% (95% CI = 0.18-0.33) for AD, 0.13% (95% CI = 0.07-0.20) for AS, and 0.18% (95% CI = 0.10-0.28) for the combined group of AA and PDD-NOS. Estimates were higher (1) for the studies that used records-review surveillance rather than other designs; (2) in North America compared with other geographical regions; and (3) in high-income compared with lower-income countries. The highest prevalence estimates were registered in the USA. There was an increase in autism prevalence estimates over time. The prevalence was also significantly higher for children aged between 6 and 12 years compared to children under the age of 5 and over the age of 13 years.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42019131525, identifier CRD42019131525.

The definition and measurement of heterogeneity

Heterogeneity is an important concept in psychiatric research and science more broadly. It negatively impacts effect size estimates under case-control paradigms, and it exposes important flaws in our existing categorical nosology. Yet, our field has no precise definition of heterogeneity proper. We tend to quantify heterogeneity by measuring associated correlates such as entropy or variance: practices which are akin to accepting the radius of a sphere as a measure of its volume. Under a definition of heterogeneity as the degree to which a system deviates from perfect conformity, this paper argues that its proper measure roughly corresponds to the size of a system's event/sample space, and has units known as numbers equivalent. We arrive at this conclusion through focused review of more than 100 years of (re)discoveries of indices by ecologists, economists, statistical physicists, and others. In parallel, we review psychiatric approaches for quantifying heterogeneity, including but not limited to studies of symptom heterogeneity, microbiome biodiversity, cluster-counting, and time-series analyses. We argue that using numbers equivalent heterogeneity measures could improve the interpretability and synthesis of psychiatric research on heterogeneity. However, significant limitations must be overcome for these measures-largely developed for economic and ecological research-to be useful in modern translational psychiatric science.

Evidence of Assortative Mating in Autism Spectrum Disorder

BACKGROUND

Assortative mating is a nonrandom mating system in which individuals with similar genotypes and/or phenotypes mate with one another more frequently than would be expected in a random mating system. Assortative mating has been hypothesized to play a role in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in an attempt to explain some of the increase in the prevalence of ASD that has recently been observed. ASD is considered to be a heritable neurodevelopmental disorder, but there is limited understanding of its causes. Assortative mating can be explored through both phenotypic and genotypic data, but up until now it has never been investigated through genotypic measures in ASD.

METHODS

We investigated genotypically similar mating pairs using genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data on trio families (Autism Genome Project data [1590 parents] and Simons Simplex Collection data [1962 parents]). To determine whether or not an excess in genetic similarity was present, we employed kinship coefficients and examined spousal correlation between the principal components in both the Autism Genome Project and Simons Simplex Collection datasets. We also examined assortative mating using phenotype data on the parents to detect any correlation between ASD traits.

RESULTS

We found significant evidence of genetic similarity between the parents of ASD offspring using both methods in the Autism Genome Project dataset. In the Simons Simplex Collection, there was also significant evidence of genetic similarity between the parents when explored through spousal correlation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study gives further support to the hypothesis that positive assortative mating plays a role in ASD.

Temporal and Geographical Variability of Prevalence and Incidence of Autism Spectrum Disorder Diagnoses in Children in Catalonia, Spain

This study aims to estimate the prevalence of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) in 2017 and the ASD diagnosis incidence between 2009 and 2017 in children living in Catalonia region in Spain, and their temporal and geographical variability. We used administrative data for all children aged 2–17 years who were insured in the public Catalan Health System between 2009 and 2017. We identified all ASD cases diagnosed between 2009 and 2017 (ICD‐9 codes 299.0, 299.1, 299.8, and 299.9). We estimated the ASD prevalence in 2017 and the overall annual incidence between 2009 and 2017, then stratified by sex, age group, and healthcare area. We used Poisson regression models to assess temporal trends in the incidence and mixed‐effects Poisson regression models to assess geographical variability. We observed an ASD prevalence of 1.23% (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.21–1.25) in 2017, with 1.95% (95% CI 1.92–1.99) for boys and 0.46% (95% CI 0.44–0.48) for girls, the highest prevalence being in 11‐ to 17‐year‐olds (1.80%, 95% CI 1.76–1.83). The ASD diagnosis incidence increased from 0.07% (95% CI 0.06–0.09) in 2009 to 0.23% (95% CI 0.21–0.24) in 2017, with a higher increase in girls, and in children aged 2–5 years at the time of diagnosis. We only observed geographical differences in prevalence in the 2017 data. We also detected a threefold increase in the diagnosis incidence overall, which was even more pronounced in girls and at early ages. In conclusion, the ASD prevalence observed in this study was 1.23% in 2017, with a sex ratio of 4.5 in favor of boys, which is consistent with previous studies. Autism Res2019. © 2019 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lay Summary

Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) are currently well known in our society as one of the most common neurodevelopmental disorders during childhood. The results of our study showed that, in 2017 in Catalonia, slightly more than one in a 100 children had an ASD diagnosis, it was more common in boys than in girls, and also in older children. In addition, between 2009 and 2017, we observed an increase in the number of new cases diagnosed each year. The data presented in this study will assist in planning and evaluating the needs of health services in this geographical region.

Improving Efficiency and Quality of the Children's ASD Diagnostic Pathway: Lessons Learned from Practice

The 'autism diagnosis crisis' and long waiting times for assessment are as yet unresolved, leading to undue stress and limiting access to effective support. There is therefore a significant need for evidence to support practitioners in the development of efficient services, delivering acceptable waiting times and effectively meeting guideline standards. This study reports statistically significant reductions in waiting times for autism diagnostic assessment following a children's health service improvement programme. The average wait between referral and first appointment reduced from 14.2 to 10.4 weeks (t(21) = 4.3, p < 0.05) and between referral and diagnosis shared, reduced from 270 to 122.5 days, (t(20) = 5.5, p < 0.05). The proportion of girls identified increased from 5.6 to 2.7:1. Methods reported include: local improvement action planning; evidence based pathways; systematic clinical data gathering and a training plan. This is a highly significant finding for many health services wrestling with the challenges of demand and capacity for autism diagnosis and assessment.

Dynamical features in fetal and postnatal zinc-copper metabolic cycles predict the emergence of autism spectrum disorder

Metals are critical to neurodevelopment, and dysregulation in early life has been documented in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). However, underlying mechanisms and biochemical assays to distinguish ASD cases from controls remain elusive. In a nationwide study of twins in Sweden, we tested whether zinc-copper cycles, which regulate metal metabolism, are disrupted in ASD. Using novel tooth-matrix biomarkers that provide direct measures of fetal elemental uptake, we developed a predictive model to distinguish participants who would be diagnosed with ASD in childhood from those who did not develop the disorder. We replicated our findings in three independent studies in the United States and the UK. We show that three quantifiable characteristics of fetal and postnatal zinc-copper rhythmicity are altered in ASD: the average duration of zinc-copper cycles, regularity with which the cycles recur, and the number of complex features within a cycle. In all independent study sets and in the pooled analysis, zinc-copper rhythmicity was disrupted in ASD cases. In contrast to controls, in ASD cases, the cycle duration was shorter (F = 52.25, P < 0.001), regularity was reduced (F = 47.99, P < 0.001), and complexity diminished (F = 57.30, P < 0.001). With two distinct classification models that used metal rhythmicity data, we achieved 90% accuracy in classifying cases and controls, with sensitivity to ASD diagnosis ranging from 85 to 100% and specificity ranging from 90 to 100%. These findings suggest that altered zinc-copper rhythmicity precedes the emergence of ASD, and quantitative biochemical measures of metal rhythmicity distinguish ASD cases from controls.

What Is the Male-to-Female Ratio in Autism Spectrum Disorder? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

OBJECTIVE

To derive the first systematically calculated estimate of the relative proportion of boys and girls with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) through a meta-analysis of prevalence studies conducted since the introduction of the DSM-IV and the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision.

METHOD

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines were followed. The Medline, Embase, and PsycINFO databases were searched, and study quality was rated using a risk-of-bias tool. Random-effects meta-analysis was used. The pooled outcome measurement was the male-to-female odds ratio (MFOR), namely the odds of being male in the group with ASD compared with the non-ASD group. In effect, this is the ASD male-to-female ratio, controlling for the male-to-female ratio among participants without ASD.

RESULTS

Fifty-four studies were analyzed, with 13,784,284 participants, of whom 53,712 had ASD (43,972 boys and 9,740 girls). The overall pooled MFOR was 4.20 (95% CI 3.84-4.60), but there was very substantial between-study variability (I² = 90.9%). High-quality studies had a lower MFOR (3.32; 95% CI 2.88-3.84). Studies that screened the general population to identify participants regardless of whether they already had an ASD diagnosis showed a lower MFOR (3.25; 95% CI 2.93-3.62) than studies that only ascertained participants with a pre-existing ASD diagnosis (MFOR 4.56; 95% CI 4.10-5.07).

CONCLUSION

Of children meeting criteria for ASD, the true male-to-female ratio is not 4:1, as is often assumed; rather, it is closer to 3:1. There appears to be a diagnostic gender bias, meaning that girls who meet criteria for ASD are at disproportionate risk of not receiving a clinical diagnosis.

Impairments in Sensory Modulation in Children with Autistic Spectrum Disorder

The Short Sensory Profile was used to measure a caregiver report of sensory reactivity in a group of children with an autistic spectrum disorder (ASD). Fifty-six of 78 (72%) families invited to participate returned the questionnaires and the data were complete for 44 children. These 44 children represented a stratified sample out of a total of 443 children, identified through nine different data sets maintained for children affected by ASD from a total geographical region in South East Scotland.

Clinical information was collected retrospectively from contemporaneous paediatric community child health medical notes and also cross-sectionally from caregivers. Sensory reactivity was outside normal limits in over 70% of the children, with the highest percentage of sensitivities occurring in the auditory filtering and the underresponsiveness and seeking sensation domains. Logistic regression analysis showed no significant relationship between sensory reactivity and the child's age at presentation with autism or parental report of regression. The severity of autism was measured by the Gilliam Autism Rating Scale and related to the Short Sensory Profile (r = 0.39, p = 0.001).

These findings suggest that all children affected by ASD, regardless of clinical features or age, may potentially be affected by sensory reactivities and may benefit from appropriate occupational therapy assessment and management. ASDs are relatively common among neurodevelopmental conditions and confer lifelong disabilities. As the majority of affected children will have sensory modulation difficulties, this has significant implications for paediatric occupational therapy services.

Socioeconomic Disparities and Prevalence of Autism Spectrum Disorders and Intellectual Disability

Background and Objectives

Study of the impact of socioeconomic status on autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and severe intellectual disabilities (ID) has yielded conflicting results. Recent European studies suggested that, unlike reports from the United States, low socioeconomic status is associated with an increased risk of ASD. For intellectual disabilities, the links with socioeconomic status vary according to the severity. We wished to clarify the links between socioeconomic status and the prevalence of ASD (with or without ID) and isolated severe ID.

Methods

500 children with ASD and 245 children with severe ID (IQ <50) aged 8 years, born 1995 to 2004, were recruited from a French population-based registry. Inclusions were based on clinical diagnoses reported in medical records according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10^th Revision. Socioeconomic status was measured by indicators available at block census level which characterize the population of the child’s area of residence. Measures of deprivation, employment, occupation, education, immigration and family structure were used. Prevalences were compared between groups of census units defined by the tertiles of socioeconomic level in the general population.

Results

Prevalence of ASD with associated ID was higher in areas with the highest level of deprivation and the highest percentage of unemployed adults, persons with no diploma, immigrants and single-parent families. No association was found when using occupational class. Regarding ASD without associated ID, a higher prevalence was found in areas with the highest percentage of immigrants. No association was found for other socioeconomic indicators. The prevalence of isolated severe ID was likely to be higher in the most disadvantaged groups defined by all indicators.

Conclusion

The prevalence of ASD with associated ID and of severe isolated ID is more likely to be higher in areas with the highest level of deprivation.

Impact of adherence to best practice guidelines on the diagnostic and assessment services for autism spectrum disorder

Despite their range and complexity, adherence to Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network guideline for the diagnosis and assessment of autism spectrum disorders (ASD) was shown to be high within child development and specialist diagnostic clinics serving a geographical cohort of children diagnosed under the age of 7 years. A retrospective analysis of comprehensive clinical notes demonstrated that the recommended discretionary use of structured history instruments was increased after medical training (p = 0.003). 56% (51/90) of children received the diagnosis of ASD at their initial specialist appointment. 51% underwent the recommended discretionary structured observational instrument. This further assessment was more likely to be required for older children in the reaudited group (p = 0.001). The implications for service capacity planning when delivering best practice recommendations are discussed.

Autism in Glasgow: cumulative incidence and the effects of referral age, deprivation and geographical location

BACKGROUND

Referrals to the Greater Glasgow Community Autism Team (CAT) made before the child's sixth birthday were analysed to obtain an estimation of the proportion of children in Greater Glasgow with childhood autism and investigate whether there were any variations in diagnosis rates, or in age at referral and diagnosis, depending on deprivation or geographical location.

METHODS

An analysis was made of the database recording referrals to Greater Glasgow CAT, between 2004 and 2007 inclusive, of children referred by age 6 years, comprising 584 cases. Cumulative incidence was calculated for childhood autism. Ages at referral and diagnosis were also analysed.

RESULTS

For this subset of children, there were 246 diagnosed cases of childhood autism, a cumulative incidence from 2004 until 2007 of 11.1 per year per 10,000 children aged 0-6 years. Of children with an eventual diagnosis of autism by age 6, 72% were referred by the age of 4 years. Deprivation was found to have an association with referral and diagnostic rates, with higher rates seen in the most deprived. There was geographical variation in the cumulative incidence of autism.

CONCLUSION

Given that the populations were not known to differ in any manner that would lead to a true variation, the geographical variation in the cumulative incidence of autism in children up to 6 years in Greater Glasgow observed in this study is likely to represent differences in the care pathway between areas. Such differences may also explain the observed association with deprivation. Reasons for the variation are being explored.

Estimating the number of street children and adolescents in two cities of Brazil using capture-recapture

AIM

To use the capture-recapture method to estimate the number of street children and adolescents in Maceió and Arapiraca, north-east Brazil, and describe the characteristics of the two populations.

METHODS

The number of children and adolescents on the street in Maceió and Arapiraca was estimated using the multi-list capture-recapture method. Two street surveys and an official list from the social services department were compared. The characteristics of the children were recorded during the street surveys using a questionnaire.

RESULTS

The estimated number of street children and adolescents was 5225 in Maceió and 1191 in Arapiraca. According to the official records, the population registered was 565 and 157, respectively. Most individuals were male (71.4% and 71.8%, respectively). They still maintain contact with their families (85.5% in Maceió and 89.6% in Arapiraca) and attend school regularly (43.4% and 49.7%). Drug use was admitted by 46.9% of the individuals in Maceió and by 26.9% in Arapiraca. In both cities, glue inhalation, associated or not with other drugs, was most frequently cited.

CONCLUSIONS

Children and adolescents on the streets are a common and underestimated occurrence in Maceió and Arapiraca. They have similar characteristics to street children from other countries and other cities in Brazil. The method of capture-recapture seems to be suited to study populations such as street children.

Prenatal and perinatal risk factors for autism in China

We conducted a case–control study using 190 Han children with and without autism to investigate prenatal and perinatal risk factors for autism in China. Cases were recruited through public special education schools and controls from regular public schools in the same region (Tianjin), with frequency matching on sex and birth year. Unadjusted analyses identified seven prenatal and seven perinatal risk factors significantly associated with autism. In the adjusted analysis, nine risk factors showed significant association with autism: maternal second-hand smoke exposure, maternal chronic or acute medical conditions unrelated to pregnancy, maternal unhappy emotional state, gestational complications, edema, abnormal gestational age (<35 or >42 weeks), nuchal cord, gravidity >1, and advanced paternal age at delivery (>30 year-old).

Using capture-recapture methods to better ascertain the incidence of fatal child maltreatment

OBJECTIVES

To (1) test the use of capture-recapture methods to estimate the total number of child maltreatment deaths in a single state using information from death certificates, child welfare reports, child death review teams, and uniform crime reports; and to (2) compare these estimates to the number of maltreatment deaths identified through an in-depth "gold standard" review.

METHODS

Child maltreatment deaths were identified in four existing administrative data sources: (1) death reports in our state vital statistics (DC); (2) child death review team reports (CDR); (3) homicide reports filed by our state police agency as uniform crime report (UCR) supplements for the FBI; and (4) abstracted reports of a minor's death from our state child protective services (CPS) agency. Capture-recapture pair-wise and pooled comparisons were then applied to estimate the numbers of abuse and total maltreatment deaths and were compared to the number of cases identified by independent case review.

RESULTS

There were a total of 194 child maltreatment deaths in Michigan during 2000-2001 with 66 due to physical abuse. Capture-recapture analysis estimated the mean number of total child maltreatment deaths as 101.02 (95%CI=92.52, 109.53), with abuse deaths of 64.55 (60.85, 68.25). Most pair-wise and pooled comparisons worked equally well for abuse deaths, but estimates for total child maltreatment deaths were low.

CONCLUSIONS

Capture-recapture methods applied to existing administrative datasets produced accurate estimates of child abuse deaths but were not useful in producing reliable estimates of total child maltreatment deaths due to undercounting neglect-related deaths in all existing administrative data sets. The underlying assumptions for capture-recapture methods were not met for neglect deaths. Local and/or state teams conducting ongoing intensive case review may yet remain the best way to identify the total number of child maltreatment deaths.

PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Capture-recapture methods allow for more accurate estimation of the true number of child physical abuse deaths than does using single existing sources of child fatality information, but deaths from causes other than abuse are undercounted. Child maltreatment fatality surveillance requires a systematic process and standard criteria for identifying cases of maltreatment, particularly neglect-related child deaths.

Timing of increased autistic disorder cumulative incidence

Autistic disorder (AD) is a severe neurodevelopmental disorder typically identified in early childhood. Both genetic and environmental factors are implicated in its etiology. The number of individuals identified as having autism has increased dramatically in recent years, but whether some proportion of this increase is real is unknown. If real, susceptible populations may have exposure to controllable exogenous stressors. Using literature AD data from long-term (approximately 10-year) studies, we determined cumulative incidence of AD for each cohort within each study. These data for each study were examined for a changepoint year in which the AD cumulative incidence first increased. We used data sets from Denmark, California, Japan, and a worldwide composite of studies. In the Danish, California, and worldwide data sets, we found that an increase in AD cumulative incidence began about 1988-1989. The Japanese study (1988-1996) had AD cumulative incidence increasing continuously, and no changepoint year could be calculated. Although the debate about the nature of increasing autism continues, the potential for this increase to be real and involve exogenous environmental stressors exists. The timing of an increase in autism incidence may help in screening for potential candidate environmental stressors.

Phonetic and phonological errors in children with high functioning autism and Asperger syndrome

This study involved a qualitative analysis of speech errors in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). Participants were 69 children aged 5-13 years; 30 had high functioning autism and 39 had Asperger syndrome. On a standardized test of articulation, the minority (12%) of participants presented with standard scores below the normal range, indicating a speech delay/disorder. Although all the other children had standard scores within the normal range, a sizeable proportion (33% of those with normal standard scores) presented with a small number of errors. Overall 41% of the group produced at least some speech errors. The speech of children with ASD was characterized by mainly developmental phonological processes (gliding, cluster reduction and final consonant deletion most frequently), but non-developmental error types (such as phoneme specific nasal emission and initial consonant deletion) were found both in children identified as performing below the normal range in the standardized speech test and in those who performed within the normal range. Non-developmental distortions occurred relatively frequently in the children with ASD and previous studies of adolescents and adults with ASDs shows similar errors, suggesting that they do not resolve over time. Whether or not speech disorders are related specifically to ASD, their presence adds an additional communication and social barrier and should be diagnosed and treated as early as possible in individual children.

The fatty acid compositions of erythrocyte and plasma polar lipids in children with autism, developmental delay or typically developing controls and the effect of fish oil intake

The erythrocyte and plasma fatty acid compositions of children with autism were compared in a case-control study with typically developing (TD) children and with children showing developmental delay (DD). Forty-five autism subjects were age-matched with TD controls and thirty-eight with DD controls. Fatty acid data were compared using paired t tests. In addition, blood fatty acids from treatment-naive autism subjects were compared with autism subjects who had consumed fish oil supplements by two-sample t tests. Relatively few differences were seen between erythrocyte fatty acids in autism and TD subjects although the former had an increased arachidonic acid (ARA):EPA ratio. This ratio was also increased in plasma samples from the same children. No changes in n-3 fatty acids or ARA:EPA ratio were seen when comparing autism with DD subjects but some SFA and MUFA were decreased in the DD subjects, most notably 24 : 0 and 24 : 1, which are essential components of axonal myelin sheaths. However, if multiple comparisons are taken into account, and a stricter level of significance applied, most of these values would not be significant. Autism subjects consuming fish oil showed reduced erythrocyte ARA, 22 : 4n-6, 22 : 5n-6 and total n-6 fatty acids and increased EPA, 22 : 5n-3, 22 : 6n-3 and total n-3 fatty acids along with reduced n-6:n-3 and ARA:EPA ratios. Collectively, the autism subjects did not have an underlying phospholipid disorder, based on erythrocyte fatty acid compositions, although the increased ARA:EPA ratio observed suggested that an imbalance of essential highly unsaturated fatty acids may be present in a cohort of autism subjects.

Prevalence and interpretation of recent trends in rates of pervasive developmental disorders

The aims of this article are to provide an up-to-date review of the methodological features and substantive results of published epidemiological surveys of the prevalence of pervasive developmental disorders (PDD). This article updates previous reviews (1, 2) with the inclusion of new studies made available since then. The specific questions addressed inthis article are: a) how are cases of PDD defined and identified in epidemiological surveys?; b) what are the best estimates for the prevalence of autism and related pervasive developmental disorders considering the methodological implications of the surveys, and c) what interpretation can be given to time trends observed in prevalence rates of PDDs given the hypothesized secular increase in PDDs?

Epidemiology of pervasive developmental disorders

This article reviews the results of 43 studies published since 1966 that provided estimates for the prevalence of pervasive developmental disorders (PDDs), including autistic disorder, Asperger disorder, PDD not otherwise specified, and childhood disintegrative disorder. The prevalence of autistic disorder has increased in recent surveys and current estimates of prevalence are around 20/10,000, whereas the prevalence for PDD not otherwise specified is around 30/10,000 in recent surveys. Prevalence of Asperger disorder is much lower than that for autistic disorder and childhood disintegrative disorder is a very rare disorder with a prevalence of about 2/100,000. Combined all together, recent studies that have examined the whole spectrum of PDDs have consistently provided estimates in the 60-70/10,000 range, making PDD one of the most frequent childhood neurodevelopmental disorders. The meaning of the increase in prevalence in recent decades is reviewed. There is evidence that the broadening of the concept, the expansion of diagnostic criteria, the development of services, and improved awareness of the condition have played a major role in explaining this increase, although it cannot be ruled out that other factors might have also contributed to that trend.

Screening for autism spectrum disorders in primary care settings

The need for autism-specific screening during pediatric well-child visits has been established. However, additional support for specific screening instruments is needed. The current study used the Modified Checklist for Autism in Toddlers (M-CHAT) and the M-CHAT Follow-Up Interview to screen 4797 children during toddler checkups. Of the 4797 cases, 466 screened positive on the M-CHAT; of the 362 who completed the follow-up interview, 61 continued to show risk for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). A total of 41 children have been evaluated; 21 children have been diagnosed with ASD, 17 were classified with non-ASD delays, and three were typically developing. The PPV of M-CHAT plus interview was .57. It is notable that only four of the 21 cases of ASD were flagged by their pediatrician. These findings suggest that the M-CHAT is effective in identifying ASD in primary care settings. Future research will follow this sample longitudinally.

Prevalence and characteristics of autistic spectrum disorders in the ALSPAC cohort

The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) within a large representative population sample: the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Cases of ASD were identified from the clinical notes of children in the ALSPAC with a suspected developmental disorder and from the Pupil Level Annual Schools Census (PLASC) for England in 2003. Seventy-one cases of ASD diagnosed after a multidisciplinary assessment were identified from health records. There were an additional 15 cases from PLASC data in which ASD was mentioned as a principal difficulty, thus giving a total of 86 children diagnosed by the age of 11 years. Prevalence of ASD per 10,000 population at 11 years was 51.1 for those with a multi-professional diagnosis, and 61.9 if cases from education were included, made up of 21.6 for childhood autism, 10.8 for atypical autism, 16.6 for Asperger syndrome, and 13.0 for unspecified ASD. The male:female ratio was 6.8:1. Median age at diagnosis ranged from 45 months in childhood autism to 116 months in Asperger syndrome. A comorbid developmental disorder was recorded in 33.8% of cases, including learning disability in 14.7%, epilepsy in 10.3%, and mixed developmental disorder in 4.4%. We conclude that the prevalence of ASD diagnosed at 11 years in a UK representative population-based sample is at least 51.1/10,000.

Two new theories of autism: hyper-systemising and assortative mating

Commentary on the papers by Williams et al (see page 8) and Harrison et al (see page 16)