Recall bias, MMR, and autism

Cancer risk with topical calcineurin inhibitors, pimecrolimus and tacrolimus, for atopic dermatitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atopic dermatitis is a prevalent condition in children and can be effectively managed with medications such as topical calcineurin inhibitors (pimecrolimus or tacrolimus). A key unresolved safety concern is whether use of topical calcineurin inhibitors is associated with cancer. We systematically reviewed the risk of cancer in patients with atopic dermatitis exposed to topical calcineurin inhibitors.

METHODS

As part of the 2022 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology and American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology Joint Task Force on Practice Parameters atopic dermatitis guidelines, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, the Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature database, the Índice Bibliográfico Espanhol de Ciências da Saúde database, the Global Resource of Eczema Trials database, WHO's International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, the US Food and Drug Administration database, the European Medicines Agency database, company registers, and relevant citations from inception to June 6, 2022. We included randomised controlled trials and comparative and non-comparative non-randomised studies in any language addressing cancer risk in patients with atopic dermatitis using topical calcineurin inhibitors. We excluded split-body studies and studies with less than 3 weeks of follow-up. Paired reviewers independently screened records, extracted data, and assessed risk of bias in duplicate. We used Bayesian models to estimate the probability for cancer due to topical calcineurin inhibitor exposure and the GRADE approach to determine the certainty of the evidence. Patients, advocacy groups, and care providers set a priori thresholds of important effects. This study is registered with Open Science Framework, https://osf.io/v4bfc.

FINDINGS

We identified and analysed 110 unique studies (52 randomised controlled trials and 69 non-randomised studies [11 were non-randomised study extensions of randomised controlled trials]) including 3·4 million patients followed up for a mean of 11 months (range 0·7-120). The absolute risk of any cancer with topical calcineurin inhibitor exposure was not different from controls (absolute risk 4·70 per 1000 with topical calcineurin inhibitors vs 4·56 per 1000 without; odds ratio 1·03 [95% credible interval 0·94-1·11]; moderate certainty). For all age groups and using data from observational studies and randomised controlled trials, the use of pimecrolimus (OR 1·05 [95% credible interval 0·94-1·15]) or tacrolimus (0·99 [0·89-1·09]) is likely to have had little to no association with cancer compared with no topical calcineurin inhibitor exposure. For pimecrolimus versus tacrolimus, the finding was similar (0·95 [95% credible interval 0·83-1·07]). Findings were similar in infants, children, and adults, and robust to trial sequential, subgroup, and sensitivity analyses.

INTERPRETATION

Among individuals with atopic dermatitis, moderate-certainty evidence shows that topical calcineurin inhibitors do not increase the risk of cancer. These findings support the safe use of topical calcineurin inhibitors in the optimal treatment of patients with atopic dermatitis.

FUNDING

American Academy of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology and American College of Allergy, Asthma and Immunology via the Joint Task Force on Practice Parameters.

Current Approaches to Vaccine Safety Using Observational Data: A Rationale for the EUMAEUS (Evaluating Use of Methods for Adverse Events Under Surveillance-for Vaccines) Study Design

Post-marketing vaccine safety surveillance aims to detect adverse events following immunization in a population. Whether certain methods of surveillance are more precise and unbiased in generating safety signals is unclear. Here, we synthesized information from existing literature to provide an overview of the strengths, weaknesses, and clinical applications of epidemiologic and analytical methods used in vaccine monitoring, focusing on cohort, case-control and self-controlled designs. These designs are proposed to be evaluated in the EUMAEUS (Evaluating Use of Methods for Adverse Event Under Surveillance-for vaccines) study because of their widespread use and potential utility. Over the past decades, there have been an increasing number of epidemiological study designs used for vaccine safety surveillance. While traditional cohort and case-control study designs remain widely used, newer, novel designs such as the self-controlled case series and self-controlled risk intervals have been developed. Each study design comes with its strengths and limitations, and the most appropriate study design will depend on availability of resources, access to records, number and distribution of cases, and availability of population coverage data. Several assumptions have to be made while using the various study designs, and while the goal is to mitigate any biases, violations of these assumptions are often still present to varying degrees. In our review, we discussed some of the potential biases (i.e., selection bias, misclassification bias and confounding bias), and ways to mitigate them. While the types of epidemiological study designs are well established, a comprehensive comparison of the analytical aspects (including method evaluation and performance metrics) of these study designs are relatively less well studied. We summarized the literature, reporting on two simulation studies, which compared the detection time, empirical power, error rate and risk estimate bias across the above-mentioned study designs. While these simulation studies provided insights on the analytic performance of each of the study designs, its applicability to real-world data remains unclear. To bridge that gap, we provided the rationale of the EUMAEUS study, with a brief description of the study design; and how the use of real-world multi-database networks can provide insights into better methods evaluation and vaccine safety surveillance.

Do Vaccines Trigger Neurological Diseases? Epidemiological Evaluation of Vaccination and Neurological Diseases Using Examples of Multiple Sclerosis, Guillain-Barré Syndrome and Narcolepsy

This article evaluates the epidemiological evidence for a relationship between vaccination and neurological disease, specifically multiple sclerosis, Guillain-Barré syndrome and narcolepsy. The statistical methods used to test vaccine safety hypotheses are described and the merits of different study designs evaluated; these include the cohort, case-control, case-coverage and the self-controlled case-series methods. For multiple sclerosis, the evidence does not support the hypothesized relationship with hepatitis B vaccine. For Guillain-Barré syndrome, the evidence suggests a small elevated risk after influenza vaccines, though considerably lower than after natural influenza infection, with no elevated risk after human papilloma virus vaccine. For narcolepsy, there is strong evidence of a causal association with one adjuvanted vaccine used in the 2009/10 influenza pandemic. Rapid investigation of vaccine safety concerns, however biologically implausible, is essential to maintain public and professional confidence in vaccination programmes.

Early Life Exposure to Antibiotics and Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Systematic Review

We systematically reviewed evidence from observational studies on the associations between autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and early-life antibiotic exposure. Eleven articles were included in the review. Prenatal antibiotic exposure was associated with a slightly increased risk of ASD in two cohort studies on overlapping populations and in one case–control study; in three other case–control studies, no significant association was found. One cohort study found a slightly reduced risk of ASD after postnatal antibiotic exposure, while two other cohort studies on overlapping populations and three case–control studies reported an increased risk. Meta-analysis of the eligible studies showed no significant associations. Current data are conflicting and do not conclusively support the hypothesis that early-life antibiotic exposure is associated with subsequent ASD development.

Changing conceptualizations of regression: What prospective studies reveal about the onset of autism spectrum disorder

Until the last decade, studies of the timing of early symptom emergence in autism spectrum disorder (ASD) relied upon retrospective methods. Recent investigations, however, are raising significant questions about the accuracy and validity of such data. Questions about when and how behavioral signs of autism emerge may be better answered through prospective studies, in which infants are enrolled near birth and followed longitudinally until the age at which ASD can be confidently diagnosed or ruled out. This review summarizes the results of recent studies that utilized prospective methods to study infants at high risk of developing ASD due to family history. Collectively, prospective studies demonstrate that the onset of ASD involves declines in the rates of key social and communication behaviors during the first years of life for most children. This corpus of literature suggests that regressive onset patterns occur much more frequently than previously recognized and may be the rule rather than the exception.

Onset patterns in autism: Variation across informants, methods, and timing

While previous studies suggested that regressive forms of onset were not common in autism spectrum disorder (ASD), more recent investigations suggest that the rates are quite high and may be under-reported using certain methods. The current study undertook a systematic investigation of how rates of regression differed by measurement method. Infants with (n = 147) and without a family history of ASD (n = 83) were seen prospectively for up to 7 visits in the first three years of life. Reports of symptom onset were collected using four measures that systematically varied the informant (examiner vs. parent), the decision type (categorical [regression absent or present] vs. dimensional [frequency of social behaviors]), and the timing of the assessment (retrospective vs. prospective). Latent class growth models were used to classify individual trajectories to see whether regressive onset patterns were infrequent or widespread within the ASD group. A majority of the sample was classified as having a regressive onset using either examiner (88%) or parent (69%) prospective dimensional ratings. Rates of regression were much lower using retrospective or categorical measures (from 29 to 47%). Agreement among different measurement methods was low. Declining trajectories of development, consistent with a regressive onset pattern, are common in children with ASD and may be more the rule than the exception. The accuracy of widely used methods of measuring onset is questionable and the present findings argue against their widespread use. Autism Res 2018, 11: 788-797. © 2018 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

LAY SUMMARY

This study examines different ways of measuring the onset of symptoms in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The present findings suggest that declining developmental skills, consistent with a regressive onset pattern, are common in children with ASD and may be more the rule than the exception. The results question the accuracy of widely used methods of measuring symptom onset and argue against their widespread use.

Pandemic influenza vaccine & narcolepsy: simulations on the potential impact of bias

Several studies have identified an association between Pandemrix(TM), an AS03 adjuvanted pandemic influenza A(H1N1) vaccine, and narcolepsy, a rare and under-diagnosed sleep disorder with a median onset-to-diagnosis interval of ten years. This paper reviews potential sources of bias in published studies and aims to provide, through simulation, methodological recommendations for assessment of vaccine safety signals. Our simulation study showed that in the absence of an association between the vaccine and the outcome, presence of detection bias and differential exposure misclassification could account for elevated risk estimates. These may play a major role, particularly in alert situations when observation times are limited and the disease has a long latency period. Estimates from the case-control design were less inflated than those from the cohort design when these biases were present. Overall, these simulations provide useful insights for the design and interpretation of future studies.

Pandemrix™ and narcolepsy: A critical appraisal of the observational studies

A link between Pandemrix™ (AS03-adjuvanted H1N1 pandemic influenza vaccine, GSK Vaccines, Belgium) and narcolepsy was first suspected in 2010 in Sweden and Finland following a number of reports in children and adolescents. Initial scepticism about the reported association faded as additional countries reported similar findings, leading several regulatory authorities to restrict the use of Pandemrix™. The authors acknowledge that currently available data suggest an increased risk of narcolepsy following vaccination with Pandemrix™; however, from an epidemiologist's perspective, significant methodological limitations of the studies have not been fully addressed and raise questions about the reported risk estimates. We review the most important biases and confounders that potentially occurred in 12 European studies of the observed association between Pandemrix™ and narcolepsy, and call for further analyses and debate.

Comparison of pooled risk estimates for adverse effects from different observational study designs: methodological overview

BACKGROUND

A diverse range of study designs (e.g. case-control or cohort) are used in the evaluation of adverse effects. We aimed to ascertain whether the risk estimates from meta-analyses of case-control studies differ from that of other study designs.

METHODS

Searches were carried out in 10 databases in addition to reference checking, contacting experts, and handsearching key journals and conference proceedings. Studies were included where a pooled relative measure of an adverse effect (odds ratio or risk ratio) from case-control studies could be directly compared with the pooled estimate for the same adverse effect arising from other types of observational studies.

RESULTS

We included 82 meta-analyses. Pooled estimates of harm from the different study designs had 95% confidence intervals that overlapped in 78/82 instances (95%). Of the 23 cases of discrepant findings (significant harm identified in meta-analysis of one type of study design, but not with the other study design), 16 (70%) stemmed from significantly elevated pooled estimates from case-control studies. There was associated evidence of funnel plot asymmetry consistent with higher risk estimates from case-control studies. On average, cohort or cross-sectional studies yielded pooled odds ratios 0.94 (95% CI 0.88-1.00) times lower than that from case-control studies.

INTERPRETATION

Empirical evidence from this overview indicates that meta-analysis of case-control studies tend to give slightly higher estimates of harm as compared to meta-analyses of other observational studies. However it is impossible to rule out potential confounding from differences in drug dose, duration and populations when comparing between study designs.

What Every Behavior Analyst Should Know About the "MMR Causes Autism" Hypothesis

In 1998, the English physician Andrew Wakefield suggested that the MMR vaccine insults the guts of children who then regress developmentally and become autistic. Although his research did not provide firm evidence for this hypothesis, many believe that (a) the MMR vaccine can cause autism; (b) children with autism typically have gastrointestinal problems; and, (c) a necessary component of treating autism is "treating the gut" through dietary restrictions. Research has subsequently shown that Wakefield's hypothesis is unquestionably false, children with autism are not more likely to have gastrointestinal problems, and there is no sound evidence that diets are a valid treatment for autism. This paper will critically review these topics.

Use of the self-controlled case-series method in vaccine safety studies: review and recommendations for best practice

The self-controlled case-series method was originally developed to investigate potential associations between vaccines and adverse events, and is now commonly used for this purpose. This study reviews applications of the method to vaccine safety investigations in the period 1995–2010. In total, 40 studies were reviewed. The application of the self-controlled case-series method in these studies is critically examined, with particular reference to the definition of observation and risk periods, control of confounders, assumptions and potential biases, methodological and presentation issues, power and sample size, and software. Comparisons with other study designs undertaken in the papers reviewed are also highlighted. Some recommendations are presented, with the emphasis on promoting good practice.

GRADE guidelines: 9. Rating up the quality of evidence

The most common reason for rating up the quality of evidence is a large effect. GRADE suggests considering rating up quality of evidence one level when methodologically rigorous observational studies show at least a two-fold reduction or increase in risk, and rating up two levels for at least a five-fold reduction or increase in risk. Systematic review authors and guideline developers may also consider rating up quality of evidence when a dose-response gradient is present, and when all plausible confounders or biases would decrease an apparent treatment effect, or would create a spurious effect when results suggest no effect. Other considerations include the rapidity of the response, the underlying trajectory of the condition, and indirect evidence.

Identifying and avoiding bias in research

This narrative review provides an overview on the topic of bias as part of a series of articles in Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery on evidence-based medicine. Bias can occur in the planning, data collection, analysis, and publication phases of research. Understanding research bias allows readers to critically and independently review the scientific literature and avoid treatments that are suboptimal or potentially harmful. A thorough understanding of bias and how it affects study results is essential for the practice of evidence-based medicine.

Lack of association between measles-mumps-rubella vaccination and autism in children: a case-control study

OBJECTIVE

The first objective of the study was to determine whether there is a relationship between the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination and autism in children. The second objective was to examine whether the risk of autism differs between use of MMR and the single measles vaccine.

DESIGN

Case-control study.

STUDY POPULATION

The 96 cases with childhood or atypical autism, aged 2 to 15, were included into the study group. Controls consisted of 192 children individually matched to cases by year of birth, sex, and general practitioners.

METHODS

Data on autism diagnosis and vaccination history were from physicians. Data on the other probable autism risk factors were collected from mothers. Logistic conditional regression was used to assess the risk of autism resulting from vaccination. Assessment was made for children vaccinated (1) Before diagnosis of autism, and (2) Before first symptoms of autism onset. Odds ratios were adjusted to mother's age, medication during pregnancy, gestation time, perinatal injury and Apgar score.

RESULTS

For children vaccinated before diagnosis, autism risk was lower in children vaccinated with MMR than in the nonvaccinated (OR: 0.17, 95% CI: 0.06-0.52) as well as to vaccinated with single measles vaccine (OR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.22-0.91). The risk for vaccinated versus nonvaccinated (independent of vaccine type) was 0.28 (95% CI: 0.10-0.76). The risk connected with being vaccinated before onset of first symptoms was significantly lower only for MMR versus single vaccine (OR: 0.47, 95% CI: 0.22-0.99).

CONCLUSIONS

The study provides evidence against the association of autism with either MMR or a single measles vaccine.

Update on side effects from common vaccines

Vaccines have had a tremendous impact on public health by reducing morbidity and mortality from a variety of virulent pathogens. However, unintended side effects continue to pose a potential risk that may outweigh the vaccine's protective attributes. In this review, we discuss recent articles and controversies pertaining to vaccine-associated adverse events. Included in the discussion are influenza, hepatitis B, measles-mumps-rubella, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis, polio, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and rotavirus vaccines. The importance and contribution of vaccine constituents (such as thimerosal) to side effects is also reviewed.

Immunizations, immunology, and autism

Public fears of rising rates of children being diagnosed with autistic spectrum disorders has led to a fear that immunizations, specifically the measles-mumps-varicella vaccine (MMR), may trigger autism. This article reviews theories of immunization as a risk factor for autism, including thimerosal exposure. We also review theories of autoimmunity as a predisposing genetic risk in autistic patients. We summarize from multiple population-based studies and extensive review committee reports that neither immunization nor thimerosal exposure has been conclusively linked to autism. Current treatments for autoimmunity in autism are reviewed and summarized as being only anecdotally effective, with no controlled studies to conclusively determine effectiveness. The goal of this article is to allow child neurologists to effectively counsel parents of autistic patients about vaccination risks and treatment options in presumed cases of autoimmune dysfunction.

The use of vaccines in pregnancy

Adult immunization rates in the United States lag behind pediatric immunization rates. Healthcare providers in all settings should discuss immunization with their patients. There are concerns regarding the use of vaccine in women who are pregnant or breastfeeding. This article reviews selected vaccines and the use of vaccines in women who are pregnant or breastfeeding. Basic principles of vaccine administration are discussed as well as standards for immunization practice. Concerns regarding vaccine safety in any population are reviewed.

Prevalence of autism and parentally reported triggers in a north east London population

BACKGROUND

The recorded prevalence of autistic spectrum disorders has risen over recent decades. Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine has been blamed, by causing a "new variant" form of "regressive autism" associated with "autistic enterocolitis".

AIMS

To estimate the prevalence of autism and to assess any changes in parental perception regarding the onset or causes of autism.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 567 children with autistic spectrum disorder in five districts in north east London were identified, born 1979-98. Reported autism, excluding the 94 cases of Asperger's syndrome, increased by year of birth until 1992, since when prevalence has plateaued. This flattening off persisted after allowing for expected delay in diagnosis in more recent birth cohorts. The age at diagnosis of autistic spectrum disorder was estimated to have decreased per five year period since 1983, by 8.7% for childhood autism and by 11.0% for atypical autism. There was some evidence that MMR was more likely to be mentioned as a trigger after August 1997 than before.

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of autism, which was apparently rising from 1979 to 1992, reached a plateau from 1992 to 1996 at a rate of some 2.6 per 1000 live births. This levelling off, together with the reducing age at diagnosis, suggests that the earlier recorded rise in prevalence was not a real increase but was likely due to factors such as increased recognition, a greater willingness on the part of educationalists and families to accept the diagnostic label, and better recording systems. The proportion of parents attributing their child's autism to MMR appears to have increased since August 1997.

Measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and the development of autism

The measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine has been postulated to cause a form of autism characterized by regression and bowel symptoms, and onset occurring shortly after vaccination. It is also claimed that, as a result, there has been a dramatic increase in autism prevalence. These hypotheses have now been tested in a number of epidemiologic studies that are reviewed in this article. None has found any evidence of the existence of a phenotypically distinct form of autism in children who received the MMR vaccine or of a clustering of onset symptoms in children who are autistic after receiving the MMR vaccine. There is no proof that the overall risk of autism is higher in children who were vaccinated with MMR or of an increase in autism prevalence associated with the use of the MMR vaccine. No epidemiologic evidence suggests an association between MMR vaccination and autism. Moreover, epidemiologic evidence against such an association is compelling.