Behaviour changes following HIV diagnosis among men who have sex with men in the era of treatment as prevention: data from a prospective study

We described the longitudinal changes in sexual behaviour and associated factors among newly diagnosed with HIV men who have sex with men participating in a prospective observational study from a London HIV clinic (2015-2018). Participants self-completed questionnaires at baseline, months 3 and 12. Information collected included socio-demographic, sexual behaviour, health, lifestyle and social support. Trends in sexual behaviours over one year following diagnosis and associated factors were assessed using generalized estimating equations with logit link. Condomless sex (CLS) dropped from 62.2% at baseline to 47.6% at month-three but increased again to 61.8% at month-12 (p-trend = 0.790). Serodiscordant-CLS increased between month-three and month-12 (from 13.1% to 35.6%, p-trend < 0.001). The prevalence of serodiscordant-CLS with high risk of transmitting to their partners at month-three was 10.7%. CLS was higher among men who reported recreational drug use (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 3.03, 95%CI 1.47-6.24, p = 0.003), those with undetectable viral load (aOR 2.17, 95%CI 1.22-3.84, p = 0.008) and those who agreed with a statement "condoms are not necessary when HIV viral load is undetectable" (aOR 3.41, 95%CI 1.58-7.38, p = 0.002). MSM continued to engage in CLS after HIV diagnosis, which coincided with U = U publications and increased throughout the study.

Lifetime and 10-year risks of cardiovascular mortality in relation to risk factors in middle and old age: 50-year follow-up of the Whitehall study of London Civil Servants

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality has declined substantially in the United Kingdom (UK) in recent decades, but the continued relevance of conventional risk factors for prediction of CVD mortality throughout the life-course is uncertain. We compared the 10-year risks and lifetime risks of CVD mortality associated with conventional risk factors recorded in middle and old age.

METHODS

The Whitehall study was a prospective study of 19,019 male London civil servants (mean age 52 years) when enrolled in 1967-1970 and followed-up for 50 years for cause-specific mortality. In 1997, 7044 (83%) survivors (mean age 77 years) were re-surveyed. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD mortality were estimated by levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and old-age, respectively.

RESULTS

By July 2020, 97% had died (22%, 51% and 80% before age 70, 80 and 90 years, respectively) and 7944 of 17,673 deaths (45%) were from CVD. The 10-year and lifetime risks of CVD death increased linearly with higher levels of CVD risk factors recorded in middle-age and in old-age. Individuals in the top versus bottom 5% of CVD risk scores in middle age had a 10.3% (95% CI:7.2-13.4) vs 0.6% (0.1-1.2) 10-year risk of CVD mortality, a 61.4% (59.4-65.3) vs 31.3% (24.1-34.5) lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 12-year difference in life expectancy from age 50 years. The corresponding differences using a CVD risk score in old-age were 11.0% (4.4-17.5) vs 0.8% (0.0-2.2) for 10-year risk and 42.1% (28.2-50.0) vs 30.3% (6.0-38.0) for lifetime risk of CVD mortality and a 6-year difference in life expectancy from age 70 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Conventional risk factors remained highly predictive of CVD mortality and life expectancy through the life-course. The findings highlight the relevance of estimation of both lifetime risks of CVD and 10-year risks of CVD for primary prevention of CVD.

The impact of policing and homelessness on violence experienced by women who sell sex in London: a modelling study

Street-based sex workers experience considerable homelessness, drug use and police enforcement, making them vulnerable to violence from clients and other perpetrators. We used a deterministic compartmental model of street-based sex workers in London to estimate whether displacement by police and unstable housing/homelessness increases client violence. The model was parameterized and calibrated using data from a cohort study of sex workers, to the baseline percentage homeless (64%), experiencing recent client violence (72%), or recent displacement (78%), and the odds ratios of experiencing violence if homeless (1.97, 95% confidence interval 0.88-4.43) or displaced (4.79, 1.99-12.11), or of experiencing displacement if homeless (3.60, 1.59-8.17). Ending homelessness and police displacement reduces violence by 67% (95% credible interval 53-81%). The effects are non-linear; halving the rate of policing or becoming homeless reduces violence by 5.7% (3.5-10.3%) or 6.7% (3.7-10.2%), respectively. Modelled interventions have small impact with violence reducing by: 5.1% (2.1-11.4%) if the rate of becoming housed increases from 1.4 to 3.2 per person-year (Housing First initiative); 3.9% (2.4-6.9%) if the rate of policing reduces by 39% (level if recent increases had not occurred); and 10.2% (5.9-19.6%) in combination. Violence reduces by 26.5% (22.6-28.2%) if half of housed sex workers transition to indoor sex work. If homelessness decreased and policing increased as occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the impact on violence is negligible, decreasing by 0.7% (8.7% decrease-4.1% increase). Increasing housing and reducing policing among street-based sex workers could substantially reduce violence, but large changes are needed.

Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab versus no treatment in non-hospitalised high-risk COVID-19 patients in north west London: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

We assessed the effectiveness of sotrovimab vs no early COVID-19 treatment in highest-risk COVID-19 patients during Omicron predominance.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study using the Discover dataset in North West London. Included patients were non-hospitalised, aged ≥12 years and met ≥1 National Health Service highest-risk criterion for sotrovimab treatment. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare HRs of 28-day COVID-19-related hospitalisation/death between highest-risk sotrovimab-treated and untreated patients. Age, renal disease and Omicron subvariant subgroup analyses were performed.

RESULTS

We included 599 sotrovimab-treated patients and 5191 untreated patients. Compared with untreated patients, the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation/death (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.24, 1.06; p=0.07) and the risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation (HR 0.43, 95% CI 0.18, 1.00; p=0.051) were both lower in the sotrovimab-treated group; however, statistical significance was not reached. In the ≥65 years and renal disease subgroups, sotrovimab was associated with a significantly reduced risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation, by 89% (HR 0.11, 95% CI 0.02, 0.82; p=0.03) and 82% (HR 0.18, 95% CI 0.05, 0.62; p=0.007), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of COVID-19 hospitalisation in sotrovimab-treated patients aged ≥65 years and with renal disease was significantly lower compared with untreated patients. Overall, risk of hospitalisation was also lower for sotrovimab-treated patients, but statistical significance was not reached.

Mental health inequalities, challenges and support needs during COVID-19: a qualitative study of 14-to-25-year-olds in London

OBJECTIVES

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent's mental health and relationships has received growing attention, yet the challenges and support needs of adolescents living in existing deprivation are not well understood. The current qualitative study, part of a broader project cocreating mental health and life-skill workshops with young people, documents adolescents' lived experience and support needs 4 years on from the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN

20 semi-structured interviews and 6 focus groups were transcribed and thematically analysed in NVivo V.12 to inform codesigned workshops to support adolescents' needs.

SETTING

Islington borough in North London, United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

20 adolescents aged 14-25 years (mean=18.3; 60% female, 60% white) from Islington with a history of difficulties (eg, mental health, deprivation, court order) were referred by Islington local authority teams to our study.

RESULTS

Thematic analyses revealed eight themes on adolescents' COVID-19 experiences and five associated suggestions on 'support needs': health challenges and support; relationships and support; routines and support; educational challenges and learning support; inequality and support; distrust; loss of opportunities and grief.

CONCLUSIONS

In our qualitative study, adolescents spoke of positive reflections, challenges, and need for support 4 years on from the COVID-19 pandemic. Many adolescents shared their lived experiences for the first time with someone else and wished they would have the space and time to acknowledge this period of loss. Adolescents living with existing inequality and deprivation before the pandemic have reported sustained and exacerbated impacts during the pandemic, hence coproduced support for adolescents should be a priority.

Contribution of Cold Versus Climate Change to Mortality in London, UK, 1976-2019

Objectives. To quantify past reductions in cold-related mortality attributable to anthropogenic climate change. Methods. We performed a daily time-series regression analysis employing distributed lag nonlinear models of 1 203 981 deaths in Greater London, United Kingdom, in winter months (November-March) during 1976 to 2019. We made attribution assessment by comparing differential cold-related mortality impacts associated with observed temperatures to those using counterfactual temperatures representing no climate change. Results. Over the past decade, the average number of cold days (below 8 °C) per year was 120 in the observed series and 158 in the counterfactual series. Since 1976, we estimate 447 (95% confidence interval = 330, 559) annual cold-related all-cause deaths have been avoided because of milder temperatures associated with climate change. Annually, 241 cardiovascular and 73 respiratory disease deaths have been avoided. Conclusions. Anthropogenic climate change made some contribution to reducing previous cold-related deaths in London; however, cold remains an important public health risk factor. Public Health Implications. Better adaptation to both heat and cold should be promoted in public health measures to protect against climate change. In England, this has been addressed by the development of a new year-round Adverse Weather and Health Plan. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(4):398-402. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2023.307552).

Changes in diet and physical activity following a community-wide pilot intervention to tackle childhood obesity in a deprived inner-London ward

BACKGROUND

Local authorities in England have an important role in shaping healthy local environments contributing to childhood obesity. This study examined changes in diet and physical activity in primary school children following a three-year, complex, community-based intervention in Golborne ward, the second most deprived ward in London.

METHODS

The Go-Golborne intervention aimed to shape the local environment across multiple settings with the engagement of a large number of local government and community stakeholders in a joint approach. Activities focused on six co-created themes to make changes to local environments and reduce sugary snacks and beverage consumption, increase fruit and vegetable intake, promote healthy snacks, increase active play and travel, and reduce screen time. We analysed changes in self-reported diet and physical activity, collected annually between 2016 and 2019, from 1,650 children aged 6-11 years through six local schools, who all received the intervention. We used multilevel, linear and logistic random-slope regression models adjusted for time on study, baseline age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation quintile, school, and baseline weight status.

RESULTS

After three years of follow-up, there were reductions in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption (adjusted beta -0·43 occasions/day, 95% CI -0·55 to -0·32), fruit and vegetable consumption (adjusted beta -0.22 portions, 95% CI -0.44 to 0.001) and car travel to and from school (adjusted OR 0·19, 95% CI 0·06 to 0·66), while screen time increased (high versus moderate/low: OR 2·30, 95% CI 1·36 to 3·90). For other behavioural outcomes, there was no statistically significant evidence of changes.

CONCLUSION

Local authorities have substantial powers to make positive changes to the obesogenic environment but programmes remain under-evaluated. Results from the ambitious Go-Golborne intervention demonstrated mixed results in health behaviours following programme implementation. These results underline the importance of a coordinated and comprehensive policy response to support changes in wider environmental and social conditions as well as appropriate and holistic evaluations of initiatives to inform local actions on obesogenic environments.

Using online search activity for earlier detection of gynaecological malignancy

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer is the most lethal and endometrial cancer the most common gynaecological cancer in the UK, yet neither have a screening program in place to facilitate early disease detection. The aim is to evaluate whether online search data can be used to differentiate between individuals with malignant and benign gynaecological diagnoses.

METHODS

This is a prospective cohort study evaluating online search data in symptomatic individuals (Google user) referred from primary care (GP) with a suspected cancer to a London Hospital (UK) between December 2020 and June 2022. Informed written consent was obtained and online search data was extracted via Google takeout and anonymised. A health filter was applied to extract health-related terms for 24 months prior to GP referral. A predictive model (outcome: malignancy) was developed using (1) search queries (terms model) and (2) categorised search queries (categories model). Area under the ROC curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model performance. 844 women were approached, 652 were eligible to participate and 392 were recruited. Of those recruited, 108 did not complete enrollment, 12 withdrew and 37 were excluded as they did not track Google searches or had an empty search history, leaving a cohort of 235.

RESULTS

The cohort had a median age of 53 years old (range 20-81) and a malignancy rate of 26.0%. There was a difference in online search data between those with a benign and malignant diagnosis, noted as early as 360 days in advance of GP referral, when search queries were used directly, but only 60 days in advance, when queries were divided into health categories. A model using online search data from patients (n = 153) who performed health-related search and corrected for sample size, achieved its highest sample-corrected AUC of 0.82, 60 days prior to GP referral.

CONCLUSIONS

Online search data appears to be different between individuals with malignant and benign gynaecological conditions, with a signal observed in advance of GP referral date. Online search data needs to be evaluated in a larger dataset to determine its value as an early disease detection tool and whether its use leads to improved clinical outcomes.

Impact of inconsistent ethnicity recordings on estimates of inequality in child health and education data: a data linkage study of Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services in South London

OBJECTIVES

Ethnicity data are critical for identifying inequalities, but previous studies suggest that ethnicity is not consistently recorded between different administrative datasets. With researchers increasingly leveraging cross-domain data linkages, we investigated the completeness and consistency of ethnicity data in two linked health and education datasets.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust deidentified electronic health records, accessed via Clinical Record Interactive Search (CRIS) and the National Pupil Database (NPD) (2007-2013).

PARTICIPANTS

N=30 426 children and adolescents referred to local Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Ethnicity data were compared between CRIS and the NPD. Associations between ethnicity as recorded from each source and key educational and clinical outcomes were explored with risk ratios.

RESULTS

Ethnicity data were available for 79.3% from the NPD, 87.0% from CRIS, 97.3% from either source and 69.0% from both sources. Among those who had ethnicity data from both, the two data sources agreed on 87.0% of aggregate ethnicity categorisations overall, but with high levels of disagreement in Mixed and Other ethnic groups. Strengths of associations between ethnicity, educational attainment and neurodevelopmental disorder varied according to which data source was used to code ethnicity. For example, as compared with White pupils, a significantly higher proportion of Asian pupils achieved expected educational attainment thresholds only if ethnicity was coded from the NPD (RR=1.46, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.64), not if ethnicity was coded from CRIS (RR=1.11, 0.98 to 1.26).

CONCLUSIONS

Data linkage has the potential to minimise missing ethnicity data, and overlap in ethnicity categorisations between CRIS and the NPD was generally high. However, choosing which data source to primarily code ethnicity from can have implications for analyses of ethnicity, mental health and educational outcomes. Users of linked data should exercise caution in combining and comparing ethnicity between different data sources.

Occupational exposure to particulate matter and staff sickness absence on the London underground

The London Underground (LU) employs over 19,000 staff, some of whom are exposed to elevated concentrations of particulate matter (PM) within the network. This study quantified the occupational exposure of LU staff to subway PM and investigated the possible association with sickness absence (SA). A job exposure matrix to quantify subway PM2.5 staff exposure was developed by undertaking measurement campaigns across the LU network. The association between exposure and SA was evaluated using zero-inflated mixed-effects negative binomial models. Staff PM2.5 exposure varied by job grade and tasks undertaken. Drivers had the highest exposure over a work shift (mean: 261 µg/m3), but concentrations varied significantly by LU line and time the train spent subway. Office staff work in office buildings separate to the LU network and are unexposed to occupational subway PM2.5. They were found to have lower rates of all-cause and respiratory infection SA compared to non-office staff, those who work across the LU network and are occupational exposed to subway PM2.5. Train drivers on five out of eight lines showed higher rates of all-cause SA, but no dose-response relationship was seen. Only drivers from one line showed higher rates of SAs from respiratory infections (incidence rate ratio: 1.24, 95% confidence interval 1.10-1.39). Lower-grade customer service (CS) staff showed higher rates of all-cause and respiratory infection SA compared to higher grade CS staff. Doctor-certified chronic respiratory and cardiovascular SAs were associated with occupational PM2.5 exposure in CS staff and drivers. While some groups with higher occupational exposure to subway PM reported higher rates of SA, no evidence suggests that subway PM is the main contributing factor to SA. This is the largest subway study on health effects of occupational PM2.5 exposure and may have wider implications for subway workers, contributing to safer working environments.

Re-evaluating John Snow's 1856 south London study

John Snow, the London doctor who studied cholera in the 1840s and 1850s, argued in Snow (1856) that water exerted an "overwhelming influence" on mortality in a region of south London during the 1854 outbreak. In a paper re-assessing Snow's analysis, Koch and Denike (2006) claim that "Snow made not merely minor arithmetic errors but more importantly critical, conceptual mistakes that adversely affected his results." The claim of errors and mistakes is incorrect and due to a misreading or misunderstanding of Snow's data and analysis. Koch and Denike apply an inappropriate statistical test to Snow's original data (and do so incorrectly). More importantly, due to the misreading of the historical record they alter the underlying primary-source data, rendering their results invalid. Analysis of the data following Snow's approach but with modern statistical tools strongly supports Snow's claim for the primacy of water in accounting for variation in cholera mortality.

Diagnosis and management of tuberculosis infection in inclusion health populations in London

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis in the UK is more prevalent in people with social risk factors- e.g. previous incarceration, homelessness - and in migrants from TB endemic countries. The management of TB infection is part of TB elimination strategies, but is challenging to provide to socially excluded groups and the evidence base for effective interventions is small.

METHODS

We evaluated a TB infection screening and treatment programme provided by a peer-led service (Find&Treat) working in inclusion health settings (e.g. homeless hostels) in London. IGRA (interferon-gamma release assay) testing and TB infection treatment were offered to eligible adults using a community-based model. The primary outcome was successful progression through the cascade of care. We also evaluated socio-demographic characteristics associated with a positive IGRA.

RESULTS

42/312 (13.5%) participants had a positive IGRA and no one had evidence of active TB. 35/42 completed a medical evaluation; 22 started treatment, and 17 completed treatment. Having a positive IGRA was associated with previous incarceration and being born outside of the UK.

DISCUSSION

Provision of TB infection diagnosis and management to this socially excluded population has several challenges including maintaining people in care and drug-drug interactions. Peer-support workers provided this service safely and effectively with appropriate support. Further work to generate data to inform risks and benefits of treatment for TB infection in this group is needed to facilitate joint decision making.

Predictors of unplanned emergency hospital admissions among patients aged 65+ with multimorbidity and depression in Northwest London during and after the Covid-19 lockdown in England

INTRODUCTION

Individuals with multimorbidity have an increased likelihood of using unplanned secondary care including emergency department visits and emergency hospitalisations. Those with mental health comorbidities are affected to a greater extent. The Covid-19 pandemic has negatively impacted on psychosocial wellbeing and multimorbidity care, especially among vulnerable older individuals.

AIM

To examine the risk of unplanned hospital admissions among patients aged 65+ with multimorbidity and depression in Northwest London, England, during- and post-Covid-19 lockdown.

METHODS

Retrospective cross-sectional data analysis with the Discover-NOW database for Northwest London was conducted. The overall sample consisted of 20,165 registered patients aged 65+ with depression. Two time periods were compared to observe the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on emergency hospital admissions between 23rd March 2020 to 21st June 2021 (period 1) and equivalent-length post-lockdown period from 22nd June 2021 to 19th September 2022 (period 2). Multivariate logistic regression was conducted on having at least one emergency hospital admission in each period against sociodemographic and multimorbidity-related characteristics.

RESULTS

The odds of having an emergency hospitalisation were greater in men than women (OR = 1.19 (lockdown); OR = 1.29 (post-lockdown)), and significantly increased with age, higher deprivation, and greater number of comorbidities in both periods across the majority of categories. There was an inconclusive pattern with ethnicity; with a statistically significant protective effect among Asian (OR = 0.66) and Black ethnicities (OR = 0.67) compared to White patients during post-lockdown period only.

CONCLUSION

The likelihood of unplanned hospitalisation was higher in men than women, and significantly increased with age, higher deprivation, and comorbidities. Despite modest increases in magnitude of risk between lockdown and post-lockdown periods, there is evidence to support proactive case-review by multi-disciplinary teams to avoid unplanned admissions, particularly men with multimorbidity and comorbid depression, patients with higher number of comorbidities and greater deprivation. Further work is needed to determine admission reasons, multimorbidity patterns, and other clinical and lifestyle predictors.

Validation of the East London Retinopathy of Prematurity algorithm to detect treatment-warranted retinopathy of prematurity: a cohort study

AIM

To validate the East London Retinopathy of Prematurity algorithm (EL-ROP) in a cohort of infants at risk of developing retinopathy of prematurity (ROP).

METHODS

The EL-ROP algorithm was applied retrospectively to routinely collected data from two tertiary neonatal units in England on infants eligible for ROP screening. The EL-ROP recommendation, to screen or not, was compared with the development of treatment-warranted ROP (TW-ROP) for each infant. The main outcome measures were (1) EL-ROP's sensitivity for predicting the future development of TW-ROP and (2) potential to reduce ROP screening examinations.

RESULTS

Data from 568 infants were included in the trial. The median (IQR) birth weight (g) was 875 (704 - 1103) and gestational age (weeks) was 27.0 (25.4 - 29.0). Maternal ethnicity was black (33%) and non-black (67%). 58(10%) developed TW-ROP and in every case this was predicted by the EL-ROP algorithm. It's sensitivity was 100% (95% CI 94-100%) specificity: 44% (95% CI 39-48%) positive predictive value: 17% (95%CI 16-18%), negative predictive value: 100%.

CONCLUSIONS

EL-ROP has been validated in a cohort of infants from two tertiary neonatal units in England. Further validation is required before its clinical usefulness can be assessed.

A recent surge of nitrous oxide misuse around London which merits a public health warning

BACKGROUND

Use of nitrous oxide (N2O) gas for recreational purposes by young people is increasingly recognized as a public health hazard in the UK.

METHODS

We looked at the hospital records of patients admitted over the last 4 years to a single neurological centre in Essex to determine the demographics, presentation, and management of patients presenting with symptoms of N2O toxicity from its recreational use.

RESULTS

Of the 17 patients (mean age = 22.9 ± 3 years) admitted between September 2018 and October 2022, 70% were admitted between January and October 2022. All patients reported limb paraesthesiae and 16/17 reported (95%) imbalance; 11/17 (65%) showed objective limb weakness. Serum B12 concentration was low in 9/17 (53%). Plasma methylmalonic acid (n = 7) and homocysteine (n = 8) levels were elevated in all patients tested. Spinal cord Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) imaging was abnormal in 10/17 (59%) patients. Nerve conduction studies were abnormal in 10/13 (77%) patients, with evidence of a symmetric, length-dependent, large fibre neuropathy.

CONCLUSIONS

There has been a recent surge of cases with neurological complications of recreational N2O abuse in the UK, with a relatively greater rate in 2022. Greater awareness of this condition amongst clinicians and health regulators is urgently required to prevent harm from N2O misuse in young people.

John Graunt F.R.S. (1620-74): The founding father of human demography, epidemiology and vital statistics

John Graunt, a largely self-educated London draper, can plausibly be regarded as the founding father of demography, epidemiology and vital statistics. In his only publication, based on a pioneering analysis of the London Bills of Mortality, he replaced guesswork with reasoned estimates of population sizes and the first accurate information on male:female ratios. He quantified the extent of immigration from countryside to city and his demonstration of the 'dying out' of a cohort paved the way for life table analysis. His comparison of London data with rural data provided the first recognition of the 'urban penalty'. His use of the first known tabular aggregates of health data clarified distinctions between acute diseases, which were often epidemic, and chronic illnesses which were often endemic. He quantified the high infant mortality and attempted the calculation of a case fatality rate during an epidemic of fever. He was the first to document the phenomenon of 'excess deaths' during epidemics. He provided a template for numerical analysis of demographic and health data and initiated the concepts of statistical association, statistical inference and population sampling. By making a novel concept intelligible to a broad audience he influenced the thinking of doctors, demographers and mathematicians.

Obsessive-compulsive disorder in treatment seeking children & adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic

BACKGROUND

Few studies have investigated the COVID-19 pandemic's effect on children and adolescents with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). This study aims to investigate whether the pandemic is associated with increased referral of young people with OCD, any changes in their symptom severity and treatment offered.

METHODS

Service data were used to investigate 58 young people (8-17 years) referred and assessed in the Central and Northwest London NHS Foundation Trust Child and Adolescent Mental Health Service (CAMHS), before and during the COVID-19 pandemic (months March-October 2018-2020). Changes in symptom severity were measured using the Health of the Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA). Patient records were reviewed to assess if COVID-19 had exacerbated symptoms. Type of treatment offered was compared.

RESULTS

26 (5.62%) assessments to CAMHS related to OCD in 2020, compared to 12 (1.30%) and 20 (2.27%) assessments pre-pandemic (2018 and 2019), showing a significant increase in the proportion of OCD cases (X2 (1, N = 58) = 20.3, p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in any HoNOSCA dimensions on initial assessment. However, 69.2% of patients in 2020 showed symptom worsening over the COVID-period, versus 46.7% of cases first assessed pre-pandemic. Significantly more patients were discharged without being offered treatment pre-pandemic (X2 (2, N = 58) = 12.7, p = 0.002). In 2020, there was an 8.5% increase in the frequency of medication offered.

DISCUSSION

The proportion of OCD cases in CAMHS increased in 2020 despite the overall number of CAMHS referrals falling. Furthermore, many cases reportedly worsened during the pandemic, and services will need to address the increased burden of more severe cases. Further larger investigation of this subject is warranted.

Psychosis prevalence in London neighbourhoods; A case study in spatial confounding

Analysis of impacts of neighbourhood risk factors on mental health outcomes frequently adopts a disease mapping approach, with unknown neighbourhood influences summarised by random effects. However, such effects may show confounding with observed predictors, especially when such predictors have a clear spatial pattern. Here, the standard disease mapping model is compared to methods which account and adjust for spatial confounding in an analysis of psychosis prevalence in London neighbourhoods. Established area risk factors such as area deprivation, non-white ethnicity, greenspace access and social fragmentation are considered as influences on psychosis. The results show evidence of spatial confounding in the standard disease mapping model. Impacts expected on substantive grounds and available evidence are either nullified or reversed in direction. It is argued that the potential for spatial confounding to affect inferences about geographic disease patterns and risk factors should be routinely considered in ecological studies of health based on disease mapping.

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) screening, linkage and retention-in-care in inclusion health populations: Evaluation of an outreach screening programme in London

OBJECTIVES

We evaluated a hepatitis B virus (HBV) screening programme, delivered by a specialist pan-London multidisciplinary outreach team, to understand population characteristics and care cascade among people who experience extreme social exclusion (Inclusion Health (IH) groups).

METHODS

Point-of-care HBV screening was performed in temporary accommodation for people experiencing homelessness (PEH) and people seeking asylum (initial accommodation centres, IACs) via a mobile unit staffed by peers with lived experience, nurses, and doctors. We analysed demographics and HBV characteristics of adults screened between May 2020 and January 2022. We ascertained linkage-to-care (LTC), retention-in-care (RIC) and loss-to-follow-up (LTFU). People LTFU were contacted by peers to re-engage in care.

RESULTS

2473 people were screened: 809 in IACs, 1664 in other temporary accommodation. Overall hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) prevalence was 1.7% (43/2473), highest in IACs (3.5%, 28/809). LTC within 3 months was 56% (24/43) and RIC, 87% (26/30). LTC was higher when referred to a local IH-specialist hepatitis service, compared to other services (77%, 17/22 vs 33%, 7/21; p = 0.006). LTFU was 30% (13/43), reduced to 21% (9/43) after intervention by peers.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support outreach screening among IH populations and peer-supported linkage to IH-specialist hepatitis services. We recommend increased HBV testing and HBV-specific IH specialist services.

Improving our understanding of the social determinants of mental health: a data linkage study of mental health records and the 2011 UK census

OBJECTIVES

To address the lack of individual-level socioeconomic information in electronic healthcare records, we linked the 2011 census of England and Wales to patient records from a large mental healthcare provider. This paper describes the linkage process and methods for mitigating bias due to non-matching.

SETTING

South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust (SLaM), a mental healthcare provider in Southeast London.

DESIGN

Clinical records from SLaM were supplied to the Office of National Statistics for linkage to the census through a deterministic matching algorithm. We examined clinical (International Classification of Disease-10 diagnosis, history of hospitalisation, frequency of service contact) and socio-demographic (age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation) information recorded in Clinical Record Interactive Search (CRIS) as predictors of linkage success with the 2011 census. To assess and adjust for potential biases caused by non-matching, we evaluated inverse probability weighting for mortality associations.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals of all ages in contact with SLaM up until December 2019 (N=459 374).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Likelihood of mental health records' linkage to census.

RESULTS

220 864 (50.4%) records from CRIS linked to the 2011 census. Young adults (prevalence ratio (PR) 0.80, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.81), individuals living in more deprived areas (PR 0.78, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.79) and minority ethnic groups (eg, Black African, PR 0.67, 0.66 to 0.68) were less likely to match to census. After implementing inverse probability weighting, we observed little change in the strength of association between clinical/demographic characteristics and mortality (eg, presence of any psychiatric disorder: unweighted PR 2.66, 95% CI 2.52 to 2.80; weighted PR 2.70, 95% CI 2.56 to 2.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Lower response rates to the 2011 census among people with psychiatric disorders may have contributed to lower match rates, a potential concern as the census informs service planning and allocation of resources. Due to its size and unique characteristics, the linked data set will enable novel investigations into the relationship between socioeconomic factors and psychiatric disorders.

A decade of Campylobacter and Campylobacter bacteraemias in a district general hospital and the surrounding London and South East region, England

BACKGROUND

Campylobacter bacteraemia is a rare complication of the most common bacterial gastrointestinal infection but is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. There is limited data describing current trends in surveillance and antimicrobial resistance for the Campylobacter strains involved. At the Epsom and St Helier's University Hospital (ESTH), we noted a marked increase in Campylobacter bacteraemia infections in 2021.

METHODS

We extracted Campylobacter reports using the UK Health Security Agency's (UKHSA) Second Generation Surveillance System (laboratory reporting system) between 1st January 2012 and 31st December 2021. We reviewed patient records of patients with Campylobacter bacteraemia for details including presentation, past medical history, duration of hospital stay, and antibiotic use.

RESULTS

Between 2012 and 2021, ESTH reported a total of 34 cases of Campylobacter bacteraemia. In 2021, the estimated incidence was 6.8 cases per 100,000 population and in the surrounding area, the incidence was 0.4 per 100,000 population. The incidence rate of Campylobacter bacteraemia in London and the South East region was significantly lower than ESTH (RR = 0.17, p < 0.0001). Campylobacter bacteraemia cases at ESTH reported a high number of co-morbidities (average number of comorbidities = 2.3) and had a duration of stay in hospital of a median of 7 days (IQR = 4-10 days). Campylobacter jejuni was the most commonly reported species for stool and blood Campylobacter in ESTH, London, and South East England.

CONCLUSION

Campylobacter bacteraemia reports at ESTH were significantly (p < 0.001) higher than the surrounding London and South East region. While no common cause for the exceedance of Campylobacter bacteraemia has been identified, common risk factors for Campylobacter bacteraemia infection include underlying health conditions, being older, and male.

Seasonality of presentation and birth in catatonia

BACKGROUND

Catatonia is a neuropsychiatric syndrome associated with both psychiatric disorders and medical conditions. Understanding of the pathophysiology of catatonia remains limited, and the role of the environment is unclear. Although seasonal variations have been shown for many of the disorders underlying catatonia, the seasonality of this syndrome has not yet been adequately explored.

METHODS

Clinical records were screened to identify a cohort of patients suffering from catatonia and a control group of psychiatric inpatients, from 2007 to 2016 in South London. In a cohort study, the seasonality of presentation was explored fitting regression models with harmonic terms, while the effect of season of birth on subsequent development of catatonia was analyzed using regression models for count data. In a case-control study, the association between month of birth and catatonia was studied fitting logistic regression models.

RESULTS

In total, 955 patients suffering from catatonia and 23,409 controls were included. The number of catatonic episodes increased during winter, with a peak in February. Similarly, an increasing number of cases was observed during summer, with a second peak in August. However, no evidence for an association between month of birth and catatonia was found.

CONCLUSIONS

The presentation of catatonia showed seasonal variation in accordance with patterns described for many of the disorders underlying catatonia, such as mood disorders and infections. We found no evidence for an association between season of birth and risk of developing catatonia. This may imply that recent triggers may underpin catatonia, rather than distal events.

Assessment of ethnic inequalities in diagnostic coding of familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH): A cross-sectional database study in Lambeth, South London

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Differences in the perceived prevalence of familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) by ethnicity are unclear. In this study, we aimed to assess the prevalence, determinants and management of diagnostically-coded FH in an ethnically diverse population in South London.

METHODS

A cross-sectional analysis of 40 practices in 332,357 adult patients in Lambeth was undertaken. Factors affecting a (clinically coded) diagnosis of FH were investigated by multi-level logistic regression adjusted for socio-demographic and lifestyle factors, co-morbidities, and medications.

RESULTS

The age-adjusted FH % prevalence rate (OR, 95%CI) ranged from 0.10 to 1.11, 0.00-1.31. Lower rates of FH coding were associated with age (0.96, 0.96-0.97) and male gender (0.75, 0.65-0.87), p < 0.001. Compared to a White British reference group, a higher likelihood of coded FH was noted in Other Asians (1.33, 1.01-1.76), p = 0.05, with lower rates in Black Africans (0.50, 0.37-0.68), p < 0.001, Indians (0.55, 0.34-0.89) p = 0.02, and in Black Caribbeans (0.60, 0.44-0.81), p = 0.001. The overall prevalence using Simon Broome criteria was 0.1%; we were unable to provide ethnic specific estimates due to low numbers. Lower likelihoods of FH coding (OR, 95%CI) were seen in non-native English speakers (0.66, 0.53-0.81), most deprived income quintile (0.68, 0.52-0.88), smokers (0.68,0.55-0.85), hypertension (0.62, 0.52-0.74), chronic kidney disease (0.64, 0.41-0.99), obesity (0.80, 0.67-0.95), diabetes (0.31, 0.25-0.39) and CVD (0.47, 0.36-0.63). 20% of FH coded patients were not prescribed lipid-lowering medications, p < 0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

Inequalities in diagnostic coding of FH patients exist. Lower likelihoods of diagnosed FH were seen in Black African, Black Caribbean and Indian ethnic groups, in contrast to higher diagnoses in White and Other Asian ethnic groups. Hypercholesterolaemia requiring statin therapy was associated with FH diagnosis, however, the presence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors lowered the diagnosis rate for FH.

Effects of COVID-19 pandemic on glaucoma appointment scheduling in a tertiary hospital in London, UK

PURPOSE

To investigate the impact of the delay in patient appointments caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the triage system on the glaucomatous disease of patients in a London tertiary hospital.

METHODS

Observational retrospective study that randomly selected 200 glaucoma patients with more than 3 months of unintended delay for their post-COVID visit and other inclusion and exclusion criteria. Demographic information, clinical data, number of drugs, best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), intraocular pressure (IOP), visual field (VF) mean deviation (MD), and global peripapillary retinal nerve fibre layer (pRNFL) thickness were obtained from the pre- and post-COVID visit. At the post-COVID visit, the clinical outcomes subjective clinical concern and change of treatment or need for surgery were also annotated. The variables were stratified by glaucoma severity (according to the MD into early, moderate and advanced) and by delay time (more and less than 12 months) and analysed using SPSS.

RESULTS

We included 121 eyes (from 71 patients). The median patient age was 74 years (interquartile range -IQR- 15), 54% were males and 52% Caucasians. Different glaucoma types and all glaucoma severities were included. When data was stratified for glaucoma severity, at the pre-COVID visit, significant differences in BCVA, CCT and IOP were observed and there were significantly higher values in the early glaucoma group. The median follow-up delay was 11 months (IQR 8), did not differ between the glaucoma severity groups and did not correlate to the glaucoma severity. At the post-COVID visit, significant differences in BCVA, IOP, and Global pRNFL thickness were observed between the glaucoma severity groups, as lower BCVA and higher IOP and pRNFL thickness were observed in the early glaucoma group. At the post-COVID visit there was cause for concern in 40 eyes: 5 were followed more closely, 22 had a change of treatment and 13 were booked for surgery (3 for cataract and 10 for glaucoma surgery). However, the number of eyes with causes for concern were similar between the glaucoma severity groups and there was no correlation between these clinical outcomes and the delay of the post-COVID visit. The number of topical hypotensive medications increased significantly after the post-COVID visit, higher number of medications were observed in the advanced glaucoma group. When differences of IOP, MD and pRNFL thickness between the pre and post-COVID visit, only the MD difference was significantly different between the glaucoma severity groups because it was higher in the severe group. When data was stratified for delay longer or shorter than 12 months, no differences were observed between the groups except at the pre-COVID visit, when the numbers of patients with MD deviation >-6 dB had longer delay time. When differences in IOP, MD and RNFL thickness were calculated, only the pRNFL thickness showed significant differences between the delay groups, because it was higher in the longer delay group. Finally, when paired analysis of the variables at the pre- and post-COVID visits, stratified by glaucoma severity and delay were conducted, although there were no significant differences in IOP in any group, the BCVA decreased significantly in the overall group and in the longer delay groups, the number of hypotensive drugs increased significantly overall and in the moderate and advanced glaucoma, the MD of the VF worsened significantly in the overall group and in the early glaucoma and longer delay groups and the pRNFL thickness decreased significantly in all groups.

CONCLUSIONS

We document that delayed care impacts negatively on the glaucomatous disease of our patients because at the post-COVID visit there were reasons for clinical concern in a third of eyes that resulted in change of treatment or surgery. However, these clinical consequences were not related to IOP, glaucoma severity or delay time and reflect that the triage methods implemented worked adequately. The most sensitive parameter to indicate progression in our sample was the pRNFL thickness.

Research activity among physicians in the United Kingdom: results from the Royal College of Physicians Census 2022

We present the results of the 2022 Census of the Federation of Royal Colleges of Physicians of Edinburgh, Glasgow and London on whether physicians undertake research and the barriers they have encountered. 40% of physicians reported that they undertook research alongside their clinical work. Multivariate analysis of the responses showed that men were 1.6 times more likely to say they undertake research than women. The main barriers to undertaking research were having enough time, organisational factors and a lack of confidence. In this opinion piece we discuss some of the challenges and how they could be addressed.

Infections in Asymptomatic Unaccompanied Asylum-seeking Children in London 2016-2022

BACKGROUND

Unaccompanied asylum-seeking children are at increased risk of infections and experience barriers to healthcare access. There is a lack of evidence to underpin existing national and international guidance regarding asymptomatic infection screening in this population. We describe the results from routine infection screening of 1104 unaccompanied asylum-seeking children attending for testing at 3 London centers.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of routinely collected data from all unaccompanied asylum-seeking children seen in 3 services in London, United Kingdom, between 2016 and 2022.

RESULTS

A total of 1104 unaccompanied asylum-seeking children attended clinic; all accepted screening. The median age was 16 years (range 11-18 years) and 987 (89%) were male. 407 (37%) had at least 1 infection; 116 (11%) had multiple infections. Tuberculosis infection and schistosomiasis were common (found in 18% and 17%, respectively). Hepatitis B infection was identified with a prevalence of 3.9%. Giardia 7.7%, tapeworm 3.3% and Strongyloides 2.8% were also commonly identified.

CONCLUSIONS

We report the largest known dataset to our knowledge of infection screening in asymptomatic unaccompanied asylum-seeking children in Europe to date. This data supports recommendations for routine asymptomatic screening in this high-risk cohort, based on the significant prevalence identified of infections of both personal and public health significance.

Opt-out testing for hepatitis B and C infections in adults attending the emergency department of a large London teaching hospital

BACKGROUND

The National Health Service (NHS) in England commissioned opt-out testing in London Emergency Departments (ED) in April 2022 to allow early identification and management of hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in patients unaware of their infection status.

METHODS

All adults over the age of 16 undergoing blood tests in the ED at the Royal Free Hospital were tested for HBV surface antigen and anti-HCV IgG unless they opted out. Data was collected between the 12th of April and 22nd of August 2022.

OUTCOME

Of 11,215 patients tested for HCV, 164 patients were found to be anti-HCV IgG positive, giving a seroprevalence rate of 1.46 %. 52 of the anti-HCV IgG positive patients did not have any previous HCV serology result. 23 of the anti-HCV IgG positive patients were also HCV RNA positive giving an RNA seroprevalence of 0.21 %, and 17 of those were new diagnoses of HCV viraemia. For HBV testing, 82 (0.73 %) out of 11,192 patients tested were found to be HBsAg positive, including one patient who presented acutely with a positive HBV core IgM. 39 of the HBsAg positive patients were previously unknown to us; of these, 9 had an HBV viral load of more than 2000 IU/mL, including 3 patients with positive HBV e antigen and one patient with hepatitis D virus co-infection.

CONCLUSION

Opt-out screening of HBV and HCV in ED is effective at identifying patients with previously undiagnosed viral hepatitis infection and providing an opportunity to engage them in specialist care.

The long-term effects of early-life pollution exposure: Evidence from the London smog

This paper uses a large UK cohort to investigate the impact of early-life pollution exposure on individuals' human capital and health outcomes in older age. We compare individuals who were exposed to the London smog in December 1952 whilst in utero or in infancy to those born after the smog and those born at the same time but in unaffected areas. We find that those exposed to the smog have substantially lower fluid intelligence and worse respiratory health, with some evidence of a reduction in years of schooling.

'Unable to have a proper conversation over the phone about my concerns': a multimethods evaluation of the impact of COVID-19 on routine childhood vaccination services in London, UK

OBJECTIVES

Investigating the completion rate of 12-month vaccinations and parental perspectives on vaccine services during COVID-19.

STUDY-DESIGN

Service evaluation including parental questionnaire.

METHODS

Uptake of 12-month vaccinations in three London general practices during three periods: pre-COVID (1/3/2018-28/2/2019, n = 826), during COVID (1/3/2019-28/2/2020, n = 775) and post-COVID first wave (1/8/2020-31/1/2021, n = 419). Questionnaire of parents whose children were registered at the practices (1/4/2019-1/22/2021, n = 1350).

RESULTS

Comparing pre-COVID and both COVID cohorts, the completion rates of 12-month vaccines were lower. Haemophilus influenzae type B/meningococcal group C (Hib/MenC) vaccination uptake was 5.6% lower (89.0% vs 83.4%, P=<0.001), meningococcal group B (MenB) booster uptake was 4.4% lower (87.3% vs 82.9%, P = 0.006), pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) booster uptake was 6% lower (88.0% vs 82.0%, P < 0.001) and measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine uptake was 5.2% lower (89.1% vs 83.9%, P = 0.003). Black/Black-British ethnicity children had increased odds of missing their 12-month vaccinations compared to White ethnicity children (adjusted odds ratio 0.43 [95% confidence interval 0.24-0.79, P = 0.005; 0.36 [0.20-0.65], P < 0.001; 0.48 [0.27-0.87], P = 0.01; 0.40 [0.22-0.73], P = 0.002; for Hib/MenC, MenB booster, PCV booster and MMR. Comparing pre-COVID and COVID periods, vaccinations coded as not booked increased for MMR (10%), MenB (7%) and PCV booster (8%). Parents reported changes to vaccination services during COVID-19, including difficulties booking and attending appointments and lack of vaccination reminders.

CONCLUSION

A sustained decrease in 12-month childhood vaccination uptake disproportionally affected Black/Black British ethnicity infants during the first wave of the pandemic. Vaccination reminders and availability of healthcare professionals to discuss parental vaccine queries are vital to maintaining uptake.

Making ends meet - relating a self-reported indicator of financial hardship to health status

BACKGROUND

Area-based index of multiple deprivation (IMD) indicators of financial hardship lack individual specificity and sensitivity. This study compared self-reports of hardship with area measures in relation to health status.

METHODS

Interviews in one London Borough, reported financial hardship and health status. Associations of health status with most and least deprived quintiles of the IMD 2015 were compared with self-reported hardship; always or sometimes 'having difficulty making ends meet at the end of the month' in relation to never.

RESULTS

1024 interviews reported hardship status in 1001 (98%). 392 people (39%) reported they 'always' or 'sometimes' had hardship. In multivariate analysis, self-reported hardship was more strongly associated with smoking; odds ratio = 5.4 (95% CI: 2.8-10.4) compared with IMD, odds ratio = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.2-3.2). Health impairment was also more likely with self-reported hardship, odds ratio = 11.1 (95% CI: 4.9-25.4) compared with IMD; odds ratio = 2.7 (95% CI: 1.4-5.3). Depression was similarly related; odds ratio = 2.4 (95% CI: 1.0-5.6) and 2.7 (95% CI: 1.2-6.6), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Self-reported hardship was more strongly related to health status than area-based indicators. Validity and implementation in routine health care settings remains to be established.

Using Explainable Machine Learning to Interpret the Effects of Policies on Air Pollution: COVID-19 Lockdown in London

Activity changes during the COVID-19 lockdown present an opportunity to understand the effects that prospective emission control and air quality management policies might have on reducing air pollution. Using a regression discontinuity design for causal analysis, we show that the first UK national lockdown led to unprecedented decreases in road traffic, by up to 65%, yet incommensurate and heterogeneous responses in air pollution in London. At different locations, changes in air pollution attributable to the lockdown ranged from -50% to 0% for nitrogen dioxide (NO2), 0% to +4% for ozone (O3), and -5% to +0% for particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10), and there was no response for PM2.5. Using explainable machine learning to interpret the outputs of a predictive model, we show that the degree to which NO2 pollution was reduced in an area was correlated with spatial features (including road freight traffic and proximity to a major airport and the city center), and that existing inequalities in air pollution exposure were exacerbated: pollution reductions were greater in places with more affluent residents and better access to public transport services.

Living with polypharmacy: a narrative interview study with older Pakistanis in East London

BACKGROUND

Polypharmacy is a growing and major public health issue. It can be burdensome and risky for patients and costly to healthcare systems. Older adults and those from ethnic minority backgrounds are disproportionately affected by polypharmacy. This study focuses on medication practices among Urdu-speaking Pakistani patients, a significant ethnic group in the UK. Most existing research on medication practices within South-Asian communities centres on adherence, leaving the social and moral dimensions of polypharmacy unpacked. Understanding how British Pakistani patients understand and manage polypharmacy in the context of their daily lives is crucial to avoiding harmful polypharmacy.

METHODS

In-depth narrative interviews were conducted with 15 first-generation Pakistani patients using the Biographical Narrative Interview Method. Participants were recruited from GP practices in East London. All participants were prescribed ten or more regular medications (a pragmatic marker of 'higher risk' polypharmacy) and were aged over 50. Interviews were conducted with a bilingual researcher at home and were designed to elicit narratives of patients' experiences of polypharmacy in the context of their biographies and daily lives.

RESULTS

Polypharmacy is enacted through networks of interpersonal and socio-material relationships. The doctor-patient relationship and the family network held particular significance to study participants. In addition, participants described emotional bonds between themselves and their medicines, identifying them as 'forces for good'-substances which allowed them to maintain their health through the intercession of God. Meanings attributed to medicines and enacted through these social, emotional, and spiritual relationships contributed to emerging and sustaining polypharmacy.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients make sense of and manage treatments in culturally specific ways. Developing an understanding of how medication practices in different communities are enacted is important for informing meaningful and effective conversations with patients about their medicines. Our findings contribute to enabling the integration of culturally sensitive approaches to prescribing.

Smoking cessation: why is it a persistent problem in patients with peripheral artery disease?

Nurses play a key role in advising patients to quit smoking, especially those with long-term conditions including cardiovascular disease. Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is an increasingly prevalent condition, and is the third most common presentation of atherosclerotic disease after coronary heart disease and stroke. Smoking cessation is crucial for patients with PAD but can be very challenging. Stopping smoking reduces cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, and improves claudication symptoms in patients with PAD. Those who continue to smoke are at higher risk of disease progression, amputation, myocardial infarction and death, and have poorer therapeutic outcomes. Quitting smoking is difficult, and patients should be offered a combination of behavioural and drug therapy. Nurses can provide several interventions to help patients quit and prevent relapse. A pilot study in a large London hospital found that no smokers had been referred to smoking cessation services by their vascular clinician (although some had been referred by their GP), given brief cessation advice or told how smoking cessation was essential for vascular preservation. Many thought smoking cessation programmes would not work.

Inequities in hypertension management: observational cross-sectional study in North East London using electronic health records

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a key modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease - the leading cause of death in the UK. Good blood pressure (BP) control reduces mortality. However, health inequities may lead to variability in hypertension monitoring and control.

AIM

To investigate health inequities related to ethnicity, sex, age, and socioeconomic status in the monitoring, treatment, and control of BP in a large cohort of adult patients with hypertension.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A cross-sectional cohort study of adults with hypertension registered with general practices in North East London on 1 April 2019.

METHOD

Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate associations of demographics and treatment intensity for the following hypertension management indicators: a) BP recording in past 12 months; b) BP on age- adjusted target; and c) BP on age-adjusted target and BP recorded in past 12 months.

RESULTS

In total, 156 296 adults were included. The Black ethnicity group was less likely to have controlled BP than the White ethnicity group (odds ratio [OR] 0.87, 95% [confidence interval] CI = 0.84 to 0.91). The Asian ethnicity group was more likely to have controlled BP (OR 1.28, 95% CI = 1.23 to 1.32). Ethnicity differences in control could not be explained by the likelihood of having a recent BP recording, nor by treatment intensity differences. Older adults (aged ≥50 years) were more likely to have controlled hypertension than younger patients.

CONCLUSION

Individuals of Black ethnicity and younger people are less likely to have controlled hypertension and may warrant targeted interventions. Possible explanations for these findings are presented but further research is needed about reasons for ethnic differences.

Ethnic disparities in progression rates for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy in diabetic eye screening: a population-based retrospective cohort study

INTRODUCTION

The English Diabetic Eye Screening Programme (DESP) offers people living with diabetes (PLD) annual eye screening. We examined incidence and determinants of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) in a sociodemographically diverse multi-ethnic population.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

North East London DESP cohort data (January 2012 to December 2021) with 137 591 PLD with no retinopathy, or non-STDR at baseline in one/both eyes, were used to calculate STDR incidence rates by sociodemographic factors, diabetes type, and duration. HR from Cox models examined associations with STDR.

RESULTS

There were 16 388 incident STDR cases over a median of 5.4 years (IQR 2.8-8.2; STDR rate 2.214, 95% CI 2.214 to 2.215 per 100 person-years). People with no retinopathy at baseline had a lower risk of sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) compared with those with non-STDR in one eye (HR 3.03, 95% CI 2.91 to 3.15, p<0.001) and both eyes (HR 7.88, 95% CI 7.59 to 8.18, p<0.001). Black and South Asian individuals had higher STDR hazards than white individuals (HR 1.57, 95% CI 1.50 to 1.64 and HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.31 to 1.42, respectively). Additionally, every 5-year increase in age at inclusion was associated with an 8% reduction in STDR hazards (p<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Ethnic disparities exist in a health system limited by capacity rather than patient economic circumstances. Diabetic retinopathy at first screen is a strong determinant of STDR development. By using basic demographic characteristics, screening programmes or clinical practices can stratify risk for sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy development.

The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the treated incidence of psychotic disorders in South London

Evidence on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on psychotic disorders is so far scarce. We conducted an incidence study to ascertain rates of first-episode psychosis (FEP) before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in South London. We screened clinical records of individuals living in the London boroughs of Southwark and Lambeth who were referred to the early intervention services before (from 1/3/2019 to 28/2/2020) and during (from 1/3/2020 to 28/2/2021) the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the Office for National Statistics to determine the population at risk. We computed crude and sex-age standardised FEP incidence per 100,000 person-years. We used Poisson regression to calculate the incidence rate ratio (IRR) across the COVID-19 pandemic. A total of 321 incident cases of FEP were identified during the COVID-19 pandemic, accounting for a crude rate of 69.8 (95% CI 62.1-77.4) per 100,000 person-years. The crude rate for the year before was 47.5 (95% CI 41.2-53.8). The incidence variation between the two years accounted for an adjusted IRR of 1.45 (95% CI 1.22-1.72). The pandemic was accompanied by a 45% spike in the rates of first-episode psychosis. This finding should inform public health research and demonstrate the need for adequate resources for secondary care.

Determinants of lipid clinic referral and attendance in a multi-ethnic adult population in south London: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Primary dyslipidaemias, including familial hypercholesterolaemia, are underdiagnosed genetic disorders that substantially increase risk for premature coronary artery disease in adults. Early identification of primary dyslipidaemias via lipid clinic referral optimises patient management and enables cascade screening of relatives. Improving the identification of primary dyslipidaemias, and understanding disparities in ascertainment and management, is an NHS priority. We aimed to assess determinants of lipid clinic referral or attendance (LCR) in ethnically diverse adults.

METHODS

We did a retrospective cross-sectional study using the Lambeth DataNet containing anonymised data from 41 general practitioner (GP) practices in south London. We looked at referral data for adult patients aged 18 years and older from Jan 1, 1995, until May 14, 2018. LCR was the main outcome. We used sequential multilevel logistic regression models adjusted for practice effects to estimate the odds of LCR assessed across six ethnic groups (reference group White) and patient-level factors (demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, comorbidities, total cholesterol [TC] >7·5mmol/L, statin prescription, and practice factors). The study was approved by NHS South East London Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) and NHS Lambeth CCG.

FINDINGS

780 (0·23%) of 332 357 adult patients were coded as referred (n=538) or seen (n=252) in a lipid clinic. 164 487 (46·49%) were women (appendix). The fully adjusted model for odds of LCR showed the following significant associations for age (odds ratio [OR] 0·96, 95% CI 0·96-0·97, p<0·001); Black, African, Caribbean, or Black-British ethnicity (0·67, 0·53-0·84, p=0·001); ex-smoker status (1·29, 1·05-1·57, p=0·014); TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L (12·18, 9·60-15·45, p<0·001); statin prescription (14·01, 10·85-18·10, p<0·001); diabetes (0·72, 0·58-0·91, p=0·005); high-frequency GP attendance at seven or more GP consultations in the past year (1·49, 1·21-1·84, p<0·001); high GP-density (0·5-0·99 full-time equivalent GPs per 1000 patients; 2·70, 1·23-5·92, p=0·013). Sensitivity analyses for LCR restricted to familial hypercholesterolaemia-coded patients (n=581) found associations with TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L (4·26, 1·89-9·62, p<0·001), statin prescription (16·96, 2·19-131·36, p=0·007), and high GP-density (5·73, 1·27-25·93, p=0·023), with no significant associations with ethnicity. The relative contribution of GP practices to LCR was 6·32% of the total variance. There were no significant interactions between ethnicity and deprivation, age, or obesity.

INTERPRETATION

While interpretation is limited by the accuracy and completeness of coded records, the study showed factors associated with a higher likelihood of LCR included individuals recorded as having TC higher than 7·5 mmol/L, statin prescription, ex-smoker status, high-frequency GP attendance, and registration at a GP practice with 0·5-0·99 GP density. Patients with increasing age; Black, African, Caribbean, or Black-British ethnicity patients; and patients with diabetes had lower odds of LCR. Finally, the difference in odds of LCR between Black and White patients highlights potential health inequalities.

FUNDING

NHS Race & Health Observatory.

Spatial comparison of London's three waves of Spanish Flu

England and Wales experienced three waves of influenza during the 1918/19 Spanish Flu pandemic. A previous analysis showed that these three waves had fundamentally different spatial and temporal characteristics. This present study compares London's experience of the three waves to discern possible geographic differences on a metropolitan level. Borough mortality data for each wave were normalized and then scaled, with spatial autocorrelation techniques displayed by GIS software and analysed for each wave. Registrar General in England and Wales reporting provided data concerning measures of 'health' and 'wealth' for each metropolitan borough. Spearman's rank correlation determined the correlation of each wave's mortality to each of the other waves including the 'health,' 'wealth' and population density factors. The comparisons showed that there is a spatial difference among the waves. The first two are spatially similar, with both exhibiting 'random' autocorrelation patterns, while the third wave exhibits a 'clustered' pattern. The borough mortality of the first two waves strongly correlated with each other, with both having similar 'health,' 'wealth' and population density factors. However, the third wave's mortality did not correlate with any of the first two and actually behaved in an opposite manner with regard to the 'health,' 'wealth,' and population density factors. These results do not appear in the literature and create new opportunities for research to explain London's mortality during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918/19.

Expedited transfer to a cardiac arrest centre for non-ST-elevation out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (ARREST): a UK prospective, multicentre, parallel, randomised clinical trial

BACKGROUND

The International Liaison Committee on Resuscitation has called for a randomised trial of delivery to a cardiac arrest centre. We aimed to assess whether expedited delivery to a cardiac arrest centre compared with current standard of care following resuscitated cardiac arrest reduces deaths.

METHODS

ARREST is a prospective, parallel, multicentre, open-label, randomised superiority trial. Patients (aged ≥18 years) with return of spontaneous circulation following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest without ST elevation were randomly assigned (1:1) at the scene of their cardiac arrest by London Ambulance Service staff using a secure online randomisation system to expedited delivery to the cardiac catheter laboratory at one of seven cardiac arrest centres or standard of care with delivery to the geographically closest emergency department at one of 32 hospitals in London, UK. Masking of the ambulance staff who delivered the interventions and those reporting treatment outcomes in hospital was not possible. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 days, analysed in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population excluding those with unknown mortality status. Safety outcomes were analysed in the ITT population. The trial was prospectively registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Registry, 96585404.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 15, 2018, and Dec 1, 2022, 862 patients were enrolled, of whom 431 (50%) were randomly assigned to a cardiac arrest centre and 431 (50%) to standard care. 20 participants withdrew from the cardiac arrest centre group and 19 from the standard care group, due to lack of consent or unknown mortality status, leaving 411 participants in the cardiac arrest centre group and 412 in the standard care group for the primary analysis. Of 822 participants for whom data were available, 560 (68%) were male and 262 (32%) were female. The primary endpoint of 30-day mortality occurred in 258 (63%) of 411 participants in the cardiac arrest centre group and in 258 (63%) of 412 in the standard care group (unadjusted risk ratio for survival 1·00, 95% CI 0·90-1·11; p=0·96). Eight (2%) of 414 patients in the cardiac arrest centre group and three (1%) of 413 in the standard care group had serious adverse events, none of which were deemed related to the trial intervention.

INTERPRETATION

In adult patients without ST elevation, transfer to a cardiac arrest centre following resuscitated cardiac arrest in the community did not reduce deaths.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation.

Secondary analysis of child hospital admission data for dental caries in London, UK: what the data tells us about oral health inequalities

OBJECTIVES

Dental caries is the most common reason for hospital admissions for children aged 6-10 years in England. The prevalence in the experience of hospital admission is not uniform across all populations. This paper reports on the analysis of secondary data on dental hospital episodes for children residing in London, and its association with oral health inequalities.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Retrospective, non-identifiable patient data sourced from the Hospital Episode Statistics dataset was analysed. Finished consultant episodes (FCEs) were extracted for children aged 1-19 years, residing in London and admitted with a primary diagnosis of caries between 2015/2016 and 2020/2021.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The number and rates of FCEs with a primary diagnosis of dental caries for children aged 1-19 years old was analysed for six consecutive financial years (2015/2016 to 2020/2021). To assess oral health inequalities in children experiencing hospital admission due to dental caries, several demographic variables were analysed: deprivation, age, and sex.

RESULTS

Between the financial years of 2015-2016 and 2020-2021, there were a total of 57 055 hospital admissions for dental caries for children aged 1-19 years (average rate of admission was 465.1 per 100 000 of children). A year-on-year decline was noted between 2015-2016 and 2020-2021. Regression analysis demonstrated clear social gradients with significant oral health inequalities; those from the most deprived areas experienced over two times the number of hospital admissions (58%). Children aged 4-9 years accounted for 68.9% (39 325) for the total dental hospital episodes from 2015-2016 to 2020-2021.

CONCLUSION

London's year-on-year reduction in hospital admission for dental caries is due to various factors including effective prevention interventions and an effective paediatric clinical care pathway. Sociodemographic factors remain to act as key predictors for hospital admission for child with dental caries. While health service level changes may reduce the number of hospital admissions, persistent child oral health inequalities continue to exist.

Introduction to the special issue: challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs

Twenty neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are currently prioritised by the World Health Organization for eradication, elimination as a public health problem, elimination of transmission or control by 2030. This issue celebrates progress made since the 2012 London Declaration on NTDs and discusses challenges currently faced to achieve these goals. It comprises 14 contributions spanning NTDs tackled by intensified disease management to those addressed by preventive chemotherapy. Although COVID-19 negatively affected NTD programmes, it also served to spur new multisectoral approaches to strengthen school-based health systems. The issue highlights the needs to improve impact survey design, evaluate new diagnostics, understand the consequences of heterogeneous prevalence and human movement, the potential impact of alternative treatment strategies and the importance of zoonotic transmission. This article is part of the theme issue 'Challenges and opportunities in the fight against neglected tropical diseases: a decade from the London Declaration on NTDs'.

A One-Health environmental risk assessment of contaminants of emerging concern in London's waterways throughout the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic had huge impacts on global urban populations, activity and health, yet little is known about attendant consequences for urban river ecosystems. We detected significant changes in occurrence and risks from contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) in waterways across Greater London (UK) during the pandemic. We were able to rapidly identify and monitor large numbers of CECs in n = 390 samples across 2019-2021 using novel direct-injection liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry methods for scalable targeted analysis, suspect screening and prioritisation of CEC risks. A total of 10,029 measured environmental concentrations (MECs) were obtained for 66 unique CECs. Pharmaceutical MECs decreased during lockdown in 2020 in the R. Thames (p ≤ 0.001), but then increased significantly in 2021 (p ≤ 0.01). For the tributary rivers, the R. Lee, Beverley Brook, R. Wandle and R. Hogsmill were the most impacted, primarily via wastewater treatment plant effluent and combined sewer overflows. In the R. Hogsmill in particular, pharmaceutical MEC trends were generally correlated with NHS prescription statistics, likely reflecting limited wastewater dilution. Suspect screening of ∼ 1,200 compounds tentatively identified 25 additional CECs at the five most impacted sites, including metabolites such as O-desmethylvenlafaxine, an EU Watch List compound. Lastly, risk quotients (RQs) ≥ 0.1 were calculated for 21 compounds across the whole Greater London freshwater catchment, of which seven were of medium risk (RQ ≥ 1.0) and three were in the high-risk category (RQ ≥ 10), including imidacloprid (RQ = 19.6), azithromycin (15.7) and diclofenac (10.5). This is the largest spatiotemporal dataset of its kind for any major capital city globally and the first for Greater London, representing ∼ 16 % of the population of England, and delivering a foundational One-Health case study in the third largest city in Europe across a global pandemic.

The incidence and prevalence of recurrent corneal erosion syndrome in London, UK

BACKGROUND

Recurrent corneal erosion syndrome (RCES) is caused by repeated episodes of corneal epithelial breakdown due to improper adherence of the corneal epithelium to the underlying basement membrane. The most common aetiologies are corneal dystrophy or previous superficial ocular trauma. The incidence and prevalence of the condition is currently unknown. This study aimed to determine the incidence and prevalence of RCES within the London population over a 5-year period in order to better inform clinicians and evaluate how this condition affects ophthalmic service provision.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study over a 5-year period reviewed 487,690 emergency room patient attendances at Moorfields Eye Hospital (MEH) London between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019. MEH caters for a local population comprising of around ten regional clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). The data for this study were collected using OpenEyesTM electronic medical records including demographics and comorbidities. The CCGs encompass 41% (3,689,000) of London's total 8,980,000 inhabitants. Using these data the crude incidence and prevalence rates of disease were estimated with results reported per 100,000 population.

RESULTS

Out of 330,684 patients, 3623 patients were given a new diagnosis of RCES by the emergency ophthalmology services, and from these, 1056 patients attended outpatient follow-up. The crude annual incidence of RCES was estimated at 25.4 per 100,000, with a crude prevalence rate of 0.96%. There was no statistical difference in annual incidence across the 5-year period.

CONCLUSIONS

The period prevalence of 0.96% shows that RCES is not uncommon. There was also a stable annual incidence over the 5-year period, showing no changing trend over the study period. However, identifying the true incidence and period prevalence is a challenging task, as minor cases may heal prior to examination by an ophthalmologist. It is highly likely that RCES is underdiagnosed and therefore underreported.

Risk factors for the progression to multimorbidity among UK urban working-age adults. A community cohort study

OBJECTIVES

The progression of long-term conditions (LTCs) from zero-to-one (initiation), and from one-to-many (progression)are common trajectories that impact a person's quality of life including their ability to work. This study aimed to explore the demographic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, and health-related determinants of LTC initiation and progression, with a focus on work participation.

METHODS

Data from 622 working-age adults who had completed two waves (baseline and follow-up) of the South-East London Community Health survey were analysed. Chi square tests and multinomial logistic regression were used to describe the associations between self-reported demographic, socioeconomic, psychosocial, and health-related variables, and the progression of LTCs.

RESULTS

Small social networks, an increased number of stressful life events, low self-rated health, functional impairment, and increased somatic symptom severity were all associated with both the progression from zero-to-one LTC and from one LTC to multimorbidity (two or more LTCs). Renting accommodation (RRR 1.73 [95% CI 1.03-2.90]), smoking (RRR 1.91 [95% CI 1.16-3.14]) and being overweight (RRR 1.88 [95% CL 1.12-3.16]) were unique risk factors of developing initial LTCs, whereas low income (RRR 2.53 [95% CI 1.11-5.80]), working part-time (RRR 2.82 ([95% CL 1.12-7.10]), being unemployed (RRR 4.83 [95% CI 1.69-13.84]), and making an early work exit (RRR 16.86 [95% CI 3.99-71.30]) all increased the risk of progressing from one LTC to multimorbidity compared to being employed full-time. At follow-up, depression was the most prevalent LTC in the unemployed group whereas musculoskeletal conditions were the most prevalent in those working.

CONCLUSIONS

The journey to multimorbidity is complex, with both common and unique risk factors. Non-full-time employment was associated with an increased risk of progression to multimorbidity. Future research should explore the risk and benefit pathways between employment and progression of LTCs. Interventions to prevent progression of LTCs should include mitigation of modifiable risk factors such as social isolation.

Oral health of people experiencing homelessness in London: a mixed methods study

BACKGROUND

Those experiencing homelessness have significant health and oral health needs and are at the extreme of health inequalities. The aim of the study was to conduct an oral health needs assessment for those experiencing homeless in London and impacts on their oral health-related quality of life.

METHODS

The oral health needs assessment consisted of quantitative and qualitative methods. This included a survey questionnaire to assess perceived oral health needs, and oral health related quality of life. In addition, a focus group was conducted with 13 peer advocates.

RESULTS

Findings from the focus group revealed numerous challenges for homeless populations to maintain good oral health and access to dental care including mental ill-health, stigma, costs, and chaotic lifestyles. A response rate of 79% (n = 315) was achieved for the questionnaire survey. Results showed high levels of unmet dental needs and risky health behaviours including 60% reporting being smokers, 39% consuming high amounts of sugar and 52.4% brushing their teeth less than twice a day. More than a third (32.1%) had experienced toothache. The majority of respondents 80% (n = 224) were very or fairly concerned about their dental health. There were significant associations between perceived oral health status and oral health-related quality of life.

CONCLUSION

Those experiencing homelessness in London were found to have high levels of unmet oral health needs, which significantly impacted on their oral health-related quality of life. Focusing on changing behaviours alone is insufficient and therefore addressing the structural determinants of homelessness is vital in improving oral and health outcomes of this vulnerable population.

A pragmatic digital health informatics based approach for aiding clinical prioritisation and reducing backlog of care: A study in cohort of 4022 people with diabetes

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The backlog of care in resource stretched healthcare systems requires innovative approaches to aid clinical prioritisation. Our aim was to develop an informatics tool to identify and prioritise people with diabetes who are likely to deteriorate whilst awaiting an appointment to optimise clinical outcomes and resources.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using data from electronic health care records we identified 6 risk-factors that could be addressed in 4022 people (52% male, 30% non-Caucasian) with diabetes attending a large university hospital in London. The risk-factors were new clinical events/data occurring since their last routine clinic visit. To validate and compare data-led prioritisation tool to a traditional 'clinical approach' a sample of 450 patients were evaluated.

RESULTS

Of the 4022 people, 549 (13.6%) were identified as having one or more risk events/factors. People with risk were more likely to be non-Caucasian and had greater socio-economic deprivation. Taking clinical prioritisation as the gold standard, informatics tool identified high risk patients with a sensitivity of 83% and lower risk patients with a specificity of 81%. An operational pilot pathway over 3 months using this approach demonstrated in 101 high risk people that 40% received interventions/care optimisation to prevent deterioration in health.

CONCLUSION

A pragmatic data-driven method identifies people with diabetes at highest need for clinical prioritisation within restricted resources. Health informatics systems such as our can enhance care and improve operational efficiency and better healthcare delivery for people with diabetes.