Impact of smoking on mortality and life expectancy in Japanese smokers: a prospective cohort study

Disparities in cigarette smoking and the health of marginalized populations in the U.S.: a simulation analysis

INTRODUCTION

People with low socioeconomic status (SES) or serious psychological distress (SPD) in the U.S. face ongoing and future disparities in tobacco smoking. We sought to estimate how smoking disparities contribute to disparities in life expectancy and aggregate life-years in these marginalized subpopulations.

METHODS

We used the Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP) microsimulation model to project life expectancy as a function of subpopulation (low SES, higher SES, SPD, or non-SPD) and cigarette smoking status. Low SES was defined as having at least one of the following: income below poverty, less than high school education, or Medicaid insurance. Higher SES individuals belonged to none of these categories. SPD was defined as Kessler-6 score ≥ 13; non-SPD was a Kessler-6 score < 13. To project individual life expectancy losses from smoking, we simulated 40-year-olds stratified by gender, subpopulation (by SES or by SPD, with no change), and smoking status (current/never, with no change). To project time to reach 5% cigarette smoking prevalence (U.S.) - reflecting one tobacco "endgame" threshold - in each subpopulation, we simulated the entire subpopulations of people with low SES, higher SES, SPD, and non-SPD, incorporating corresponding distributions of gender, age, and smoking status and accounting for changes in smoking behaviors and secular smoking trends. We then estimated total life-years accumulated under status quo and alternate scenarios in which smoking dynamics in the marginalized subpopulations matched those of their less marginalized counterparts.

RESULTS

The model showed that, for individuals with low SES or SPD, smoking is associated with substantial loss of life expectancy (9.8-11.5y). Marginalized subpopulations would reach 5% smoking prevalence 20y (low SES) and 17y (SPD) sooner if smoking trends mirrored their less marginalized counterparts; these differences result in 5.3 million (low SES) and 966,000 (SPD) excess life-years lost over 40y.

CONCLUSIONS

Differences in cigarette smoking portend substantial ongoing and future disparities in life expectancy and time to reach 5% smoking prevalence. Reducing tobacco-related disparities in the U.S. will require an explicitly equity-focused vision, and the tobacco endgame will only be truly achieved when it includes all groups.

Examining the potential causal relationships among smoking behaviors, blood DNA methylation profiles, and the development of coronary heart disease and myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Smoking has been identified as a standalone risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD) and myocardial infarction (MI), but the precise underlying mechanisms remain incompletely elucidated.

RESULTS

In this study, we conducted a two-sample Mendelian randomization analysis to examine the impact of smoking behaviors (including smoking initiation, age of smoking initiation, cigarettes per day, and smoking cessation) and smoking-related DNA methylation at CpG sites on CHD and MI based on the UK Biobank dataset. Additionally, we included the FinnGen and Biobank Japan datasets as replications and performed a meta-analysis to combine the results from different data sources. We further validated our results using genetic colocalization analysis. In genomic analysis, we provided compelling evidence on the association between genetically predicted smoking initiation and increased susceptibility to CHD and MI. In epigenetic analysis, we identified 11 smoking-related CpG sites linked to CHD risk and 10 smoking-related CpG sites associated with the risk of MI based on the UK Biobank dataset. Subsequently, some of these CpG sites were further replicated using the FinnGen or BBJ datasets. Ultimately, a meta-analysis was conducted to integrate findings from various data sources (3 for CHD, and 2 for MI), revealing that 7 of 11 CpG sites were linked to CHD risk; whereas, 7 of 10 CpG sites were associated with MI risk. Furthermore, we performed genetic colocalization analysis and found that cg19744173 (FBLN7), cg00395063 (ARHGEF12), and cg16822035 (MCF2L) exhibited robust evidence of colocalization with coronary heart disease; whereas, cg19529732 (DIABLO), cg26405020 (FES), and cg08940075 (CNN3) demonstrated strong colocalization evidence with the risk of myocardial infarction.

CONCLUSIONS

Our research offers a novel insight into the impact of smoking on the susceptibility to CHD and MI through the lens of epigenetic DNA methylation.

The hazard of using the Poisson model to cope with immortal time bias in the case of time-varying hazard

BACKGROUND

A time-dependent analysis, usually by means of Poisson and Cox regression models, can be applied to prevent immortal time bias. However, the use of the Poisson model requires the assumption that the event rate is constant over time. This study aims to assess the potential consequences of using the Poisson model to cope with immortal time bias on estimating the exposure-outcome relationship in the case of time-varying risks.

METHODS

A simulation study was carried out. Survival times were assumed to follow a Weibull distribution, and the Weibull parameters were chosen to identify three different scenarios: the hazard of the event is constant, decreases, or increases over time. A dichotomous time-varying exposure in which patients can change at most once from unexposed to exposed was considered. The Poisson model was fitted to estimate the exposure-outcome association.

RESULTS

Small changes in the outcome risk over time (as denoted by the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution) strongly affected the exposure-outcome association estimate. The estimated effect of exposure was always lower and greater than the true exposure effect when the event risk decreases or increases over time, and this was the case irrespective of the true exposure effect. The bias magnitude was positively associated with the prevalence of and time to exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Biased estimates were obtained from the Poisson model to cope with immortal time. In settings with a time-varying outcome risk, the model should adjust for the trend in outcome risk. Otherwise, other models should be considered.

Association Between Awareness of Limiting Food Intake and All-cause Mortality: A Cohort Study in Japan

BACKGROUND

Improving diets requires an awareness of the need to limit foods for which excessive consumption is a health problem. Since there are limited reports on the link between this awareness and mortality risk, we examined the association between awareness of limiting food intake (energy, fat, and sweets) and all-cause mortality in a Japanese cohort study.

METHODS

Participants comprised 58,772 residents (27,294 men; 31,478 women) aged 35-69 years who completed baseline surveys of the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study from 2004 to 2014. Hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by sex using a Cox proportional hazard model, with adjustment for related factors. Mediation analysis with fat intake as a mediator was also conducted.

RESULTS

The mean follow-up period was 11 years, and 2,516 people died. Estimated energy and fat intakes according to the Food Frequency Questionnaire were lower in those with awareness of limiting food intake than in those without this awareness. Women with awareness of limiting fat intake showed a significant decrease in mortality risk (HR 0.73; 95% CI, 0.55-0.94). Mediation analysis revealed that this association was due to the direct effect of the awareness of limiting fat intake and that the total effect was not mediated by actual fat intake. Awareness of limiting energy or sweets intake was not related to mortality risk reduction.

CONCLUSION

Awareness of limiting food intake had a limited effect on reducing all-cause mortality risk.

Life expectancy in relation to societal development level: significant discordant factors

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study is to determine the interdependence between life expectancy and numerous social indicators, i.e., to determine the factors that encourage an increase or decrease in life expectancy.

METHODS

Pearson coefficients as well as linear and logarithmic trends and correlations between the dependent variable of life expectancy and numerous independent variables were calculated and analysed. The calculations were carried out for all countries in the world for which data is available. Based on the strength of the correlations between life expectancy and numerous indicators, we have tried to determine the reasons for the different values of life expectancy in the various countries.

RESULTS

Important factors for achieving high life expectancy values are economic development and healthcare spending but the spread of "diseases of the modern era", such as obesity or diabetes, have a significant negative impact on life expectancy. Other important limiting factors for life expectancy are large income inequalities, a higher share of private healthcare expenditure in total healthcare expenditure and lower total healthcare expenditure. Less developed societies can significantly increase their life expectancy by providing clean water and safe sanitation and by combating various infectious diseases (especially HIV).

CONCLUSIONS

Life expectancy is a meaningful indicator of the state of social development and accurately reflects the general state of a particular society. It has been shown that GDP per capita (PPP) is a key determinant of life expectancy, while other important factors play the role of a further modifier.

Association of a low-inflammatory diet with survival among adults: The role of cardiometabolic diseases and lifestyle

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Evidence on the association between dietary inflammation and longevity is limited. We aimed to examine the association of a low-inflammatory diet with mortality and longevity, and to explore whether cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs) and lifestyle factors may play a role in this association.

METHODS

Within the UK Biobank, 188,443 participants aged 39-72 years (mean 56.07) were followed for up to 16 years to detect survival status from the death registry. At baseline, dietary intake was assessed with a 24-h dietary record. An inflammatory diet index (IDI) was calculated as weighted sum of 31 food groups (including 14 anti-inflammatory and 17 pro-inflammatory) based on plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels, and tertiled as low, moderate, and high IDI scores. Baseline lifestyle beyond diet was assessed by summing the number of healthy lifestyle factors (i.e., never smoking, regular physical activity, and normal BMI) and categorized as unfavorable (≤1) and favorable (≥2). Presence of CMDs was defined as having any one of type 2 diabetes, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, and stroke. Data were analyzed using Cox regression, Laplace regression, and generalized structural equation modelling.

RESULTS

During the follow-up (median 9.79 years, interquartile range: 9.68-10.57 years), 9178 (4.9%) participants died. In multi-adjusted Cox regression models, a low-inflammatory diet (i.e. low IDI score) was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78 to 0.86]. Laplace regression analysis showed that the multi-adjusted 10th percentile difference (10th PD, 95% CI) of death time was delayed by 0.80 (0.55, 1.06; P < 0.001) years for participants with a low IDI score compared to those with a high IDI score. In mediation analysis, 21.48% of the association between IDI and mortality was mediated by CMDs. In joint effect analysis, participants with a low IDI score and favorable lifestyle had a 42% lower risk of death (HR = 0.58, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.62) compared to those with a high IDI score and unfavorable lifestyle. There was a significant additive interaction between low IDI score and favorable lifestyle on decreased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

A low-inflammatory diet is associated with a lower risk of death and could prolong survival time. CMDs may partially mediate the IDI-mortality association. A favorable lifestyle beyond diet may augment the positive effect of a low-inflammatory diet on longevity.

Associations between Health-Related Use of Social Media and Positive Lifestyle Behaviors: Findings from a Representative Sample of US Adult Smokers

Background: Cigarette smokers have elevated cardiovascular risk factors, which contributes significantly to mortality. Although social media is a potential avenue to deliver smoking interventions, its role in health promotion among smokers remains relatively unexplored.Objective: To examine the uptake and impact of health-related social media use in cigarette smokers.Methods: Using data from the 2017-2020 Health Information National Trends Survey, we evaluated differences in health-related social media use between smokers and nonsmokers. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to examine the association between social media use and positive health behaviors.Results: We included 1863 current smokers and 13,560 nonsmokers; Most participants were women (51.0%), White (64.6%), and 49.2% were aged ≥50 years. Smokers who used ≥1 social media site for health-related purposes in the past year were significantly more likely to meet the guideline recommendations for: (i) weekly physical activity (AOR 2.00, 95% CI 1.23-3.24), (ii) daily vegetable intake (AOR 2.48, 95% CI 1.10-5.59), and (iii) weekly strength training (AOR 1.80, 95% CI 1.10-2.94). However, the odds of reporting intentions to quit smoking (AOR 1.81, 95% CI 0.98-3.34) and attempts at smoking cessation (AOR 1.68, 95% CI 0.90-3.12) did not differ by health-related social media use.Conclusion: Smokers use social media for health-related purposes at comparable rates to nonsmokers. While our findings indicate that these platforms present a novel opportunity for health promotion among smokers, future research exploring the utility of social media in smoking cessation is crucial.

Cancer Risk Following Smoking Cessation in Korea

Importance

Tobacco smoking is associated with increased risk of various cancers, and smoking cessation has been associated with reduced cancer risks, but it is still unclear how many years of smoking cessation are required to significantly reduce the cancer risk. Therefore, investigating the association of smoking cessation with cancer is essential.

Objective

To investigate the time course of cancer risk according to the time elapsed since smoking cessation and the benefits of smoking cessation according to the age at quitting.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based, retrospective cohort study included Korean participants aged 30 years and older who underwent 2 or more consecutive health examinations under the National Health Insurance Service since 2002 and were followed-up until 2019. Data analysis was performed from April to September 2023.

Exposures

Exposures included (1) time-updated smoking status based on biennial changes in smoking status, defined as complete quitters, transient quitters, relapsed quitters, continuous smokers, and never smokers; (2) duration of smoking cessation, defined as years since quitting; and (3) categorical variable for age at quitting.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary cancer was ascertained using the cancer registry data: all-site cancer (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision [ICD-10] codes C00-43, C45-96, or D45-D47), lung cancer (ICD-10 code C34), liver cancer (ICD-10 code C22), stomach cancer (ICD-10 code C16), and colorectal cancer (ICD-10 codes C18-20). Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with follow-up years as the timescale.

Results

Of the 2 974 820 participants, 1 727 340 (58.1%) were men (mean [SD] age, 43.1 [10.0] years), and 1 247 480 (41.9%) were women (mean [SD] age, 48.5 [9.9] years). Over a mean (SD) follow-up of 13.4 (0.1) years, 196 829 cancer cases were confirmed. Compared with continuous smokers, complete quitters had a lower risk of cancer, with HRs of 0.83 (95% CI, 0.80-0.86) for all cancer sites, 0.58 (95% CI, 0.53-0.62) for lung, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.64-0.82) for liver, 0.86 (95% CI, 0.79-0.93) for stomach, and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.72-0.89) for colorectum. The cancer risk exhibited a slightly higher value for 10 years after quitting compared with continued smoking and then it decreased over time, reaching 50% of the risk associated with continued smoking after 15 or more years. Lung cancer risk decreased 3 years earlier than that of other cancer types, with a larger relative reduction. Regardless of quitting age, a significant reduction in the cancer risk was observed. Quitting before the age of 50 years was associated with a greater reduction in lung cancer risk (HR, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.35-0.53) compared with quitting at age 50 years or later (HR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.56-0.66).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this population-based retrospective cohort study, sustained smoking cessation was associated with significantly reduced risk of cancer after 10 years since quitting. Quitting at any age helped reduce the cancer risk, and especially for lung cancer, early cessation before middle age exhibited a substantial risk reduction.

Risky health behaviors and subsequent late mortality after blood or marrow transplantation: a BMTSS report

We examined the association between risky health behaviors (smoking, heavy alcohol consumption, and lack of vigorous physical activity) and all-cause and cause-specific late mortality after blood or marrow transplantation (BMT) to understand the role played by potentially modifiable risk factors. Study participants were drawn from the BMT Survivor Study (BMTSS) and included patients who received transplantation between 1974 and 2014, had survived ≥2 years after BMT, and were aged ≥18 years at study entry. Survivors provided information on sociodemographic characteristics, chronic health conditions, and health behaviors. National Death Index was used to determine survival and cause of death. Multivariable regression analyses determined the association between risky health behaviors and all-cause mortality (Cox regression) and nonrecurrence-related mortality (NRM; subdistribution hazard regression), after adjusting for relevant sociodemographic, clinical variables and therapeutic exposures. Overall, 3866 participants completed the BMTSS survey and were followed for a median of 5 years to death or 31 December 2021; and 856 participants (22.1%) died after survey completion. Risky health behaviors were associated with increased hazard of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] former smoker, 1.2; aHR current smoker, 1.7; reference, nonsmoker; aHR heavy drinker, 1.4; reference, nonheavy drinker; and aHR no vigorous activity, 1.2; reference, vigorous activity) and NRM (aHR former smoker, 1.3; aHR current smoker, 1.6; reference, nonsmoker; aHR heavy drinker, 1.4; reference: nonheavy drinker; and aHR no vigorous activity, 1.2; reference, vigorous activity). The association between potentially modifiable risky health behaviors and late mortality offers opportunities for development of interventions to improve both the quality and quantity of life after BMT.

How long were older people expected to live with or without sarcopenia? Multistate modeling of a national cohort study

Objectives

Sarcopenia is well known to be associated with mortality, but there is a lack of evidence on the estimates of life expectancy (LE) for sarcopenia in China. This study aims to estimate total life expectancy (TLE) and sarcopenia-specific LE in community-dwelling older Chinese adults with and without sarcopenia.

Methods

This study included participants aged 60 years and older who enrolled in the cohort in 2011 and 2013 and at least completed one follow-up until 2015 as part of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The criteria for defining sarcopenia were based on the guidelines established by the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia in 2019. TLE and sarcopenia-specific LE were estimated for the total population and subgroups using continuous-time multistate modeling.

Results

A total of 6,029 participants (49.2% women) with an average age of 68.4 (SD: 6.56) years were included in the study. The baseline prevalence of sarcopenia and possible sarcopenia was 19.5 and 44.9%, respectively. We observed that sarcopenia stages naturally deteriorated to worse stages (including death, by 24.4%) and returned to better stages (17.1%) during a median follow-up of 3.92 years (IQR: 2.00 ~ 4.00). The average TLE at the age of 60 was 20.9 [95% CI: 20.2-21.5] years (22.1 [95% CI: 19.6-24.6] for non-sarcopenic older adults, 20.9 [95% CI: 19.5-22.3] for possible sarcopenic, and 18.7 [95% CI: 16.4-21.1] for sarcopenic). Men, former and current smokers, and those living in northwest China had less TLE. Sarcopenic older adults, those with lower education, those who are unmarried, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and northwest China were expected to live fewer years with non-sarcopenia. Sarcopenic older people, men, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and southwest China were expected to live more years with sarcopenia.

Discussion

The results improved our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia and life expectancy. We suggested that targeted strategies should be considered in high-risk populations and underdeveloped regions to prevent sarcopenia and improve non-sarcopenic life years for the older population.

Body mass index and esophageal and gastric cancer: A pooled analysis of 10 population-based cohort studies in Japan

The effect of body mass index (BMI) on esophageal and gastric carcinogenesis might be heterogeneous, depending on subtype or subsite. However, findings from prospective evaluations of BMI associated with these cancers among Asian populations have been inconsistent and limited, especially for esophageal adenocarcinoma and gastric cardia cancer. We performed a pooled analysis of 10 population-based cohort studies to examine this association in 394,247 Japanese individuals. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), then pooled these estimates to calculate summary HRs with a random effects model. During 5,750,107 person-years of follow-up, 1569 esophageal cancer (1038 squamous cell carcinoma and 86 adenocarcinoma) and 11,095 gastric (728 cardia and 5620 noncardia) cancer incident cases were identified. An inverse association was observed between BMI and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (HR per 5-kg/m2 increase 0.57, 95% CI 0.50-0.65), whereas a positive association was seen in gastric cardia cancer (HR 1.15, 95% CI 1.00-1.32). A nonsignificant and significant positive association for overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m2 ) relative to BMI <25 kg/m2 was observed with esophageal adenocarcinoma (HR 1.32, 95% CI 0.80-2.17) and gastric cardia cancer (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.05-1.46), respectively. No clear association with BMI was found for gastric noncardia cancer. This prospective study-the largest in an Asian country-provides a comprehensive quantitative estimate of the association of BMI with upper gastrointestinal cancer and confirms the subtype- or subsite-specific carcinogenic impact of BMI in a Japanese population.

Towards Healthy Adolescents: A Review of Smoking Impact According to Dental Perspectives

Nowadays, tobacco companies target to recruit new smokers among adolescents due to this age group was easy to be influenced by smoking behaviours. This narrative review aimed to explore the possible impact of smoking among adolescents. Knowing the negative impacts of smoking might result in avoiding continuing the habit or preventing from initiation of the habit. The literature search on PubMed, SCOPUS, and Epistemonikos database with related search terms of “adolescents”, “smoking” and “impact”. Only papers published within the year 2017 to 2021 and in the English language were included. However, articles without full text were excluded from this review. Fourteen articles were selected and divided impacts into three categories which are effect on oral health, effect on general health and other impacts. Possible impacts of smoking among adolescents were identified, and it could be beneficial in the development of customized smoking prevention or smoking cessation intervention for adolescents.

Health-Related Expectations Regarding Aging among Middle-Aged and Older Japanese: Psychometric Performance and Novel Findings from the ERA-12-J

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Health-related expectations regarding aging is a gerontological construct that is potentially predictive of morbidity and mortality in later life. The Expectations Regarding Ageing scale (ERA-12) is a widely used measure of health-related expectations, although it has not previously been administered in Japanese. The present research aimed to elucidate the psychometric properties of the first Japanese translation of the ERA-12 and evaluate health-related expectations among middle-aged and older Japanese.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Repeated online surveys were conducted with representative quota samples of middle-aged and older adults in Tokyo during 2021 (N = 1600). Primary outcome measures included total and subscale scores on a Japanese translation of the ERA-12 (ERA-12-J) addressing perceptions of physical, mental, and cognitive health. Standard measures were also used to gather information regarding respondent demographic details, general health, and health-related behavior.

RESULTS

The ERA-12-J and associated subscales showed acceptable test-retest reliability (t(1598) = 0.60, p = 0.63), internal consistency (α > 0.80), inter-item correlation (r = 0.21-0.78) and item-total correlation (r = 0.53-0.73). Confirmatory Factor Analysis verified the hypothesized three-factor structure and construct validity on four common indices of fit (GFI = 0.968; CFI = 0.978; AGFI = 0.950; RMSEA = 0.059). ERA-12-J scores among Japanese respondents revealed prevailing negative sentiments concerning physical and cognitive health, with less negative sentiment regarding mental health. Significant and independent differences emerged concerning gender and age cohort, with middle-aged adults and females holding more negative expectations about their future health.

DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS

The ERA-12-J provides a sound basis for the elucidation of health-related expectations about aging in Japan and a useful tool for international comparative studies. Education and workplace intervention may be required in Japan to address age and gender disparities in health-related expectations.

Smoking-induced microbial dysbiosis in health and disease

Smoking is associated with an increased risk of cancer, pulmonary and cardiovascular diseases, but the precise mechanisms by which such risk is mediated remain poorly understood. Additionally, smoking can impact the oral, nasal, oropharyngeal, lung and gut microbiome composition, function, and secreted molecule repertoire. Microbiome changes induced by smoking can bear direct consequences on smoking-related illnesses. Moreover, smoking-associated dysbiosis may modulate weight gain development following smoking cessation. Here, we review the implications of cigarette smoking on microbiome community structure and function. In addition, we highlight the potential impacts of microbial dysbiosis on smoking-related diseases. We discuss challenges in studying host–microbiome interactions in the context of smoking, such as the correlations with smoking-related disease severity versus causation and mechanism. In all, understanding the microbiome’s role in the pathophysiology of smoking-related diseases may promote the development of rational therapies for smoking- and smoking cessation-related disorders, as well as assist in smoking abstinence.

Epigenetic GrimAge acceleration and cognitive impairment in bipolar disorder

Bipolar disorder (BD) has been previously associated with clinical signs of premature aging, including accelerated epigenetic aging in blood and brain, and a steeper age-related decline in cognitive function. However, the clinical drivers and cognitive correlates of epigenetic aging in BD are still unknown. We aimed to investigate the relationship between multiple measures of epigenetic aging acceleration with clinical, functioning, and cognitive outcomes in patients with BD and controls. Blood genome-wide DNA methylation levels were measured in BD patients (n = 153) and matched healthy controls (n = 50) with the Infinium MethylationEPIC BeadChip (Illumina). Epigenetic age estimates were calculated using an online tool, including the recently developed lifespan predictor GrimAge, and analyzed with generalized linear models controlling for demographic variables and blood cell proportions. BD was significantly associated with greater GrimAge acceleration (AgeAccelGrim, β=0.197, p = 0.009), and significant group-dependent interactions were found between AgeAccelGrim and blood cell proportions (CD4+ T-lymphocytes, monocytes, granulocytes, and B-cells). Within patients, higher AgeAccelGrim was associated with worse cognitive function in multiple domains (short-term affective memory (β=-0.078, p = 0.030), short-term non-affective memory (β=-0.088, p = 0.018), inhibition (β=0.064, p = 0.046), and problem solving (β=-0.067, p = 0.034)), age of first diagnosis with any mood disorder (β=-0.076, p = 0.039) or BD (β=-0.102, p = 0.016), as well as with current non-smoking status (β=-0.392, p < 0.001). Overall, our findings support the contribution of epigenetic factors to the aging-related cognitive decline and premature mortality reported in BD patients, with an important driving effect of smoking in this population.

Factors associated with long-term smoking relapse in those who succeeded in smoking cessation using regional smoking cessation programs

It is known that approximately 10% of successful quitters relapse annually. This study aimed to investigate the factors related to long-term smoking relapse in individuals who succeeded in maintaining smoking cessation for 6 months after attending a regional smoking cessation program. This study enrolled 943 individuals registered for the regional smoking cessation program at the Busan Smoking Cessation Center in 2018-2019 who maintained smoking cessation for 6 months. A survey was conducted using a smartphone link or through phone calls, and the data for 305 participants who finally completed the survey were analyzed. The questionnaire addressed individual, inter-individual, organizational, and community-level factors related to smoking relapse. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to evaluate the factors associated with smoking relapse by period. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used for the factors associated with smoking relapse for the entire period. The smoking relapse rate at the time of the survey was 25.4%. In the analysis of smoking relapse by period, relapse was associated with the belief that smoking relieves stress, the number of single-person households, and poor subjective health status. In the analysis of smoking relapse during the entire period, we observed a significant association with the belief that smoking relieves stress (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.65, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.52-4.61), single-person households (HR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.16-3.26), and high levels of emotional stress (HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.04-2.85). Long-term follow-up is necessary to prevent smoking relapse in single-person households, individuals who believe that smoking relieves stress, and those experiencing high levels of subjective emotional stress. Interventional therapies for stress relief and awareness improvement in smokers need to be developed.

Panoramic smoking burden and genetic susceptibility in relation to all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a prospective study in UK Biobank

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Various smoking behaviors, including smoking initiation, age of initiation, heaviness of smoking and smoking cessation, have been individually related to the risk of mortality; however, no study has assessed these smoking behaviors jointly in relation to mortality. Our study aimed to measure prospectively the association of panoramic smoking burden (PSB), generated from the four aforementioned smoking behaviors, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and measure whether such associations are modified by genetic variations.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

UK Biobank.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 360 937 participants aged between 37 and 73 years were enrolled in 2006-10 and -followed-up to 2018.

MEASUREMENTS

The exposure was PSB, constructed based on four smoking behaviors including smoking initiation, age of initiation, heaviness of smoking and smoking cessation in a weighted method. A genetically determined PSB was also constructed with smoking-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and categorized into tertiles. The primary outcomes were all-cause and cause-specific mortality.

FINDINGS

We identified 15 968 deaths [9022 from cancer and 5092 from cardiovascular disease (CVD)] over a median of 11.36 years' follow-up. For all-cause mortality, compared with participants with the PSB of zero, the hazard ratios of participants who had a PSB of one, two, three and four were 1.23 [95% confidence intervals (CI) = 1.18-1.29), 1.66 (95% CI = 1.59-1.75), 3.33 (95% CI = 3.17-3.51) and 5.76 (95% CI = 4.66-7.13), respectively. Among participants within each genetic risk category, low and intermediate PSB were associated with 45-58% reduced risk of all-cause death compared with high PSB. Analysis of population-attributable risk percentage indicated that 21.9, 19.1 and 24.7% of all-cause-, cancer- and CVD-specific death could have been avoided if all ever smokers initiated smoking after age 18 years, smoked < 20 cigarettes/day and quit smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

The panoramic smoking burden, based on smoking initiation, age of initiation, heaviness of smoking and smoking cessation, appears to be associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a gradient manner with increasing panoramic smoking burden independent of other traditional and genetic risk factors.

Association Between Initiation, Intensity, and Cessation of Smoking and Mortality Risk in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease: A Cohort Study

Objectives: To examine the effect of smoking status, smoking intensity, duration of smoking cessation and age of smoking initiation on the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality among cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients.

Design: A population-based prospective cohort study.

Setting: The National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) in the U.S. that were linked to the National Death Index (NDI).

Participants: 66,190 CVD participants ≥ 18 years of age who were interviewed between 1997 and 2013 in the NHIS linked to the NDI through December 31, 2015.

Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality and the secondary outcome was cause-specific mortality including CVD mortality and cancer mortality.

Results: During the mean follow-up of 8.1 years, we documented 22,518 deaths (including 6,473 CVD deaths and 4,050 cancer deaths). In the overall CVD population, former and current smokers had higher risk of all-cause (Former smokers: hazard ratios (HRs), 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.21–1.31, P < 0.001; Current smokers: HRs, 1.96; 95%CI, 1.86–2.07, P < 0.001), CVD (Former smokers: HRs, 1.12; 95%CI, 1.05–1.21, P = 0.001; Current smokers: HRs, 1.80; 95%CI, 1.64–1.97, P < 0.001) and cancer mortality (Former smokers: HRs, 1.49; 95%CI, 1.35–1.64, P < 0.001; Current smokers: HRs, 2.78; 95%CI, 2.49–3.09, P < 0.001) than never smokers. Furthermore, similar results were observed when the study subjects were stratified according to the type of CVD. Among current smokers, the risk for cancer mortality increased as the daily number of cigarettes increased, regardless of the specific type of CVD. However, the association of the risk for all-cause and CVD mortality with smoking intensity did not present a dose-response relationship. In participants with angina pectoris or stroke, smoking intensity was inversely associated with deaths from CVD. In addition, the risk for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality declined as years of smoking cessation increased. Finally, the relative risk of all-cause mortality was not significantly different in individuals with a younger age of smoking initiation.

Conclusions: CVD patients who are smokers have an increased risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality, and the risk decreases significantly after quitting smoking. These data further provide strong evidence that supports the recommendation to quit smoking for the prevention of premature deaths among individuals with CVD.

The impact of cigarette smoking on life expectancy in schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and bipolar affective disorder: An electronic case register cohort study

Severe mental disorders are associated with a life expectancy that is 10-20 years shorter than the general population's. The prevalence of cigarette smoking in these populations is very high. We examined the effect of smoking on life expectancy and survival in patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder or bipolar affective disorder from 2007 to 2018 in South East London, UK. Smoking status was determined using unstructured text data extracted from electronic health records. A total of 21,588 patients were identified of which 16,717, (77.4%) were classified as current smokers and 3438 (15.9%) as non-smokers. In female participants, life expectancy at birth was 67.6 years in current smokers (95% CI: 66.4-68.8) and 74.9 years in non-smokers (95% CI: 72.8-77.0), a difference of 7.3 years. In male participants, life expectancy at birth was 63.5 years in current smokers (95% CI: 62.5-64.5) and 68.5 years in non-smokers (95% CI, 64.4-72.6), a difference of 5.0 years. Adjusted survival models found that current smoking status was associated with an increased mortality risk for both females (aHR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.21-1.66, p < 0.001) and males (aHR: 1.49; 95% CI: 1.25-1.79, p < 0.001). In terms of the effect sizes, these risks were similar to those associated with a diagnosis of co-morbid alcohol or opioid use disorder. Smoking may account for a substantial proportion of the reduced life expectancy in patients with psychotic disorders. Increased emphasis on reducing cigarette smoking in these populations may be the most effective way to reduce the mortality gap with the general population.

Effectiveness and Safety Profile of Alternative Tobacco and Nicotine Products for Smoking Reduction and Cessation: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Alternative tobacco and nicotine products such as electronic cigarettes (EC), smokeless tobacco, and nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) are currently being assessed as options in tobacco harm reduction due to their potential role in smoking reduction and smoking cessation.

OBJECTIVE

To provide the current evidence on the effectiveness and safety of various alternative tobacco and nicotine products for smoking reduction and cessation.

METHODS

A systematic review using databases from MEDLINE (PubMed), EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library was conducted up to December 2020 to identify eligible experimental and observational studies assessing the use of alternative tobacco and nicotine products on smoking reduction and smoking cessation and the safety of these products. The Cochrane Risk of Bias 2 (RoB 2) and ROBINS-I tools were used to assess the risk of bias of the included studies. Results were described through a narrative synthesis of the evidence.

RESULTS

From 1955 retrieved references, 44 studies (31 randomized controlled trials/RCTs and 13 prospective cohort studies) met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Twenty-nine studies were assessing EC, one study evaluated heat-not-burn (HNB) product, five studies were focused on snus, and nine studies assessed NRT in the form of nicotine patch, gum, etc. The overall results suggested that alternative tobacco and nicotine products in the form of EC, snus, and NRT can moderately reduce daily cigarette consumption and has potential to assist smoking cessation attempts, with fewer adverse events.

CONCLUSION

The findings suggested that alternative tobacco and nicotine products have a potential role in assisting smoking reduction and cessation, highlighting their role in the tobacco harm reduction approach. Further studies should focus on investigating long-term outcomes, safety, and effectiveness of alternative tobacco and nicotine products to better inform smoking reduction/cessation policy.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020205830.

The presence of Superfund sites as a determinant of life expectancy in the United States

Superfund sites could affect life expectancy (LE) via increasing the likelihood of exposure to toxic chemicals. Here, we assess to what extent such presence could alter the LE independently and in the context of sociodemographic determinants. A nationwide geocoded statistical modeling at the census tract level was undertaken to estimate the magnitude of impact. Results showed a significant difference in LE among census tracts with at least one Superfund site and their neighboring tracts with no sites. The presence of a Superfund site could cause a decrease of -0.186 ± 0.027 years in LE. This adverse effect could be as high as -1.22 years in tracts with Superfund sites and high sociodemographic disadvantage. Specific characteristics of Superfund sites such as being prone to flooding and the absence of a cleanup strategy could amplify the adverse effect. Furthermore, the presence of Superfund sites amplifies the negative influence of sociodemographic factors at lower LEs.

Association of Smoking and Smoking Cessation With Overall and Cause-Specific Mortality

INTRODUCTION

Smoking remains a strong risk factor for premature death. This study examines the associations of nondaily smoking, daily smoking, and smoking cessation with the risks of mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.

METHODS

This study used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, a population-based, cross-sectional study. Data analysis was conducted in the U.S. from January to October 2020. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to obtain adjusted hazard ratios.

RESULTS

During 255,100 person-years of follow-up, 2,008 participants died (347 from cardiovascular diseases and 501 from cancer). A significant increase in the risk of all-cause mortality was observed for nondaily smokers (hazard ratio=1.50, 95% CI=1.08, 2.08) compared with that for those who had never smoked. For daily smokers, the adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality were 1.54 (95% CI=1.24, 1.90) for those smoking <20 cigarettes per day, 2.09 (95% CI=1.65, 2.63) for those smoking 20-40 cigarettes per day, and 2.78 (95% CI=1.75, 4.43) for those smoking ≥40 cigarettes per day. An increased risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality was also observed for daily smokers. Former smokers with ≥5 years since cessation had a lower risk of all-cause mortality than current smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that nondaily smokers have a higher risk of all-cause mortality. The association of daily smoking with the risk of mortality increased as the number of cigarettes smoked per day increased. Among former smokers, the risk decreased with longer cessation. Tobacco control efforts should be targeted not only toward daily smokers but also toward nondaily smokers to reduce the risk of premature death owing to smoking.

Smoking cessation-associated mortality reduction: A case-control study in Tianjin city, China

INTRODUCTION

Smoking-attributed mortality is increasing steadily in most developing countries. The aim of the study is to assess the reduction in smoking-associated mortality following cessation.

METHODS

Death data were collected from 2016 to 2017. Cases were deaths from pre-defined diseases of interest (65298); controls were deaths from pre-defined non-smoking-related diseases (13527). Case versus control odds ratios for ex-smokers versus smokers were calculated by age, sex, marital status and education with standardized logistic regression. These are described as mortality rate ratios (RRs, calculated as odds ratios), with a group-specific confidence interval (CI). The statistical analysis of the data was conducted from June to August 2019.

RESULTS

For deaths from pre-defined non-smoking-related diseases at age 35–59 years, the RRs for quitting smoking 0–4, 5–9 or ≥10 years ago and never smoking were 0.66 (95% CI: 0.55–0.78), 0.58 (95% CI: 0.38–0.88), 0.61 (95% CI: 0.45–0.82), and 0.43 (95% CI: 0.39–0.46), respectively. The same trend was found at ages 60–69 years and 70–79 years. Younger age of quitting (25–44 or 45–64 years) appeared to be associated with greater protection among the age groups: RR was 0.55 (95% CI: 0.42–0.74) and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.56–0.79), respectively, at age 35–59 years. Among the patients who died of lung cancer, the strong protective effect can only be observed when the duration of quitting is ≥10 years. The effect of smoking cessation on the risk of death from cardiovascular disease can be observed when the duration of quitting is 1–5 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer durations of smoking cessation are associated with progressively lower mortality rates from the diseases of interest, such as lung cancer and other smoking related cancers. For sustainable monitoring of tobacco-attributed mortality, smoking information over decades, such as smoking duration and quit smoking years, should be recorded during registration of death.

Cigarettes versus water-pipes: Differences and similarities in factors predicting the use of cigarettes and water-pipes among young male adults according to the planned-behaviour theory

Cigarette and water-pipe smoking are responsible for substantial harmful health consequences. However, studies have often examined these two types of smoking in separate study samples. Thus, this study examined differences and similarities among factors predicting cigarette and water-pipe smoking according to planned-behaviour theory within the same sample. Two hundred and twenty-one young Arab Israeli male adults (N = 221) completed demographic, self-esteem and planned-behaviour questionnaires. The study findings demonstrated that perceived ability to control one's water-pipe use was significantly higher than perceived ability to control one's use of cigarettes. With regard to attitudes, norms and intentions, no significant differences were found between cigarette and water-pipe use. Hierarchal multiple regressions showed that being Muslim, self-esteem, negative attitudes and negative norms contributed to the explained variance of both cigarette and water-pipe smoking. Self-control contributed to the variance in cigarette smoking, but not water-pipe smoking. The findings make an important contribution to our understanding of the differences and similarities in the factors predicting cigarette and water-pipe use among young male adults. Theoretical and clinical implications are discussed.

Cigarette Smoking Increased Risk of Overall Mortality in Patients With Non-alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study

Background: The evidence suggests a detrimental effect of cigarette smoking on the progression of chronic liver disease. However, the impact of cigarette smoking on mortality among patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remain unclear. Methods: We used the National Health Examination Survey data collected during 2008-2009 to link the National Death Index to follow-up respondent survival. Diagnosis of NAFLD was based on a lipid accumulation product in participants without significant alcohol use or other liver diseases. Results: During 64,116 person-years of follow-up, 928 of 7,529 participants with NAFLD died, and the cumulative all-cause mortality was 14.5 per 1,000 person-years. In a Cox regression model adjusted for age, body mass index, alcohol intake, exercise, comorbidities, lipid profiles, and handgrip strength, current smoking increased the risk of mortality by 109% (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 2.09, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18-3.71) compared with never smoker status in women, but showed only a trend toward harm among men (aHR: 1.41, 95% CI: 0.96-2.08). After controlling for potential confounders, smoking ≥10 pack-years continued to show a significant harmful effect on all-cause mortality among women (aHR: 5.40, 95% CI: 2.19-13.4), but not in men. Among women who drink alcohol ≥10 grams per day, current smoking (aHR: 13.8, 95% CI: 1.66-145) and smoking ≥10 pack-years (aHR: 310, 95% CI: 78-1,296) also significantly increased risk of death. Conclusion: This nationwide population-based study highlight a detrimental effect of cigarette smoking on mortality, with a similar but more definite association in women than in men with NAFLD.

Reflection on modern methods: cause of death decomposition of cohort survival comparisons

Life expectancy is most commonly measured for a period (corresponding to mortality within a given year) or for a specific birth cohort. Although widely used, period and cohort life expectancy have limitations as their time-trends often show disparities and can mask the historical mortality experience of all cohorts present at a given time. The truncated cross-sectional average length of life, or TCAL, is a period measure including all available cohort mortality information, irrespective of whether all cohort members have died. It is particularly useful for comparing cohort mortality between populations. This study extends TCAL by disentangling causes of death contributions. The strength of the approach is that it allows identification of mortality differences in cohorts with members still alive, as well as identification of which ages and causes of death contribute to mortality differentials between populations. Application of the method to Japan shows that over the period 1950-2014 a major contributor to TCAL differences with other high-longevity countries was its lower cardiovascular disease mortality.

[Examination of Factors Affecting Life Expectancy by Prefecture Based on the Criteria of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development]

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the indicators affecting life expectancy at birth and life expectancy at age 65 by multiple regression analysis and principal component analysis, and examined the factors affecting the longevity.

METHODS

We set indicators for health status, risk factors, access to care, quality of care and health care resources. Then, we conducted multiple regression analysis with life expectancy at birth and life expectancy at age 65 as the objective variables and 22 indicators as explanatory variables. Principal component analysis was also performed on the 22 indicators.

RESULTS

Men's life expectancy at birth was positively affected by hospital admission ratio and national health insurance costs, and negatively by the rate of requirement of care certification and alcohol consumption. Men's life expectancy at age 65 was positively affected by income-to-medical expenses ratio and hospitalization treatment ratio, and negatively by requiring care certification rate, smoking rate and obesity rate. Women's life expectancy at birth was positively affected by population coverage and hospitalization treatment ratio, and negatively by women's heart disease mortality rate, requiring care certification rate and smoking rate. Women's life expectancy at age 65 was positively affected by late-stage elderly medical costs and the number of doctors, and negatively by requiring care certification rate and air pollution. Principal component 1 indicated "aging high-medical-resource society", principal component 2 indicated "high mortality from heart disease", and principal component 3 indicated the "degree of risk factor".

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of the indicators found to affect life expectancy at birth and life expectancy at age 65, it is necessary to take measures to ensure a long life.

Smoking cessation advice from healthcare professionals helps those in the contemplation and preparation stage: An application with transtheoretical model underpinning in a community-based program

INTRODUCTION

The efficacy of smoking cessation intervention has been proven with randomized controlled trials. Our study aims to elucidate the effects of the delivery method of smoking cessation advice on the process of stage of changes with transtheorectical model underpinning in a community setting.

METHODS

A total of 436 subjects were recruited in a quasi-experimental untreated control design study, with 46 receiving advice from healthcare professionals (HCP group) and 390 in the control group, in 2003, Nantou, Taiwan. A discrete time Markov model was used to quantify the multi-state process of smoking cessation in light of the transtheorectical model. Multiple polytomous logistic regression models were simultaneously applied to different transitions.

RESULTS

The estimated forward transition probabilities were higher in the HCP group compared to their counterparts in the control group. On the other hand, the backward transition probabilities were smaller in the HCP group. After adjusting for confounding factors, HCP had a 4.3-fold (95% CI: 2.21–8.46) odds ratio of moving forward from the contemplation stage, and 2.4-fold odds ratio (95% CI: 1.03–4.42) from the preparation stage. Elderly people were more reluctant to change from precontemplation (AOR=0.50; 95% CI: 0.34–0.74) and contemplation (AOR=0.58; 95% CI: 0.44–0.84), but once in the preparation stage, they were more likely to take action (AOR=1.28; 95% CI: 1.01–1.83). For those in the preparation stage, longer smoking years had a negative effect on taking action (AOR=0.74; 95% CI: 0.52–0.99), but cessation advice from others enhanced the likelihood to take action (AOR=1.36; 95% CI: 1.01–1.99).

CONCLUSIONS

The direct advice on smoking cessation from healthcare professionals enforced the net forward transition towards smoking cessation, especially the transition from contemplation and preparation. The proposed Markov regression model assessed the net effect of different intervention approaches allowing for the simultaneous consideration of multiple transitions and the effects of other confounders.

Individual response of humans to ionising radiation: governing factors and importance for radiological protection

Tissue reactions and stochastic effects after exposure to ionising radiation are variable between individuals but the factors and mechanisms governing individual responses are not well understood. Individual responses can be measured at different levels of biological organization and using different endpoints following varying doses of radiation, including: cancers, non-cancer diseases and mortality in the whole organism; normal tissue reactions after exposures; and, cellular endpoints such as chromosomal damage and molecular alterations. There is no doubt that many factors influence the responses of people to radiation to different degrees. In addition to the obvious general factors of radiation quality, dose, dose rate and the tissue (sub)volume irradiated, recognized and potential determining factors include age, sex, life style (e.g., smoking, diet, possibly body mass index), environmental factors, genetics and epigenetics, stochastic distribution of cellular events, and systemic comorbidities such as diabetes or viral infections. Genetic factors are commonly thought to be a substantial contributor to individual response to radiation. Apart from a small number of rare monogenic diseases such as ataxia telangiectasia, the inheritance of an abnormally responsive phenotype among a population of healthy individuals does not follow a classical Mendelian inheritance pattern. Rather it is considered to be a multi-factorial, complex trait.

Endoscopic submucosal dissection/endoscopic mucosal resection guidelines for esophageal cancer

The Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society has developed endoscopic submucosal dissection/endoscopic mucosal resection guidelines. These guidelines present recommendations in response to 18 clinical questions concerning the preoperative diagnosis, indications, resection methods, curability assessment, and surveillance of patients undergoing endoscopic resection for esophageal cancers based on a systematic review of the scientific literature.

The Role of Physical Activity in the Association Between Smoking Status and Quality of Life

OBJECTIVES

Nonsmoking status and physical activity have, individually, been shown to be associated with health-related quality of life (HRQoL). The objective of this study was to assess whether the relationship between smoking status and HRQoL is modified or influenced by physical activity.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the 2014 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey dataset (N = 332680) in 2015. Logistic regression models were used to address study objectives. Health-related quality of life (HRQoL), measured using eight domains (general health, physical health, mental health, activity limitations, pain, depressive symptoms, anxiety, and vitality), was regressed on smoking status without and with adjustment for age, race, gender, education, marital status, income, employment, healthcare coverage, comorbidity, body mass index, flu vaccination, alcohol use, and physical activity. Smoking status by physical activity interaction term was added to the adjusted model and evaluated for significance.

RESULTS

There were significant smoking status by physical activity interaction effects on general health, physical health, activity limitations, and depressive symptoms domains. Among those who exercised, relative differences in the odds of a high HRQoL was smaller between former smokers and nonsmokers and larger between current smokers and nonsmokers when compared to those who did not exercise. Similarly, there were sharper relative differences between those who exercised and those who did not exercise among former smokers than among current smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Smokers who successfully quit smoking (former smokers) may benefit from enhanced HRQoL that tends towards that of nonsmokers if they adopt physical activity in their daily routine.

IMPLICATIONS

Behavioral interventions that combine smoking cessation and physical activity may be more effective than either smoking cessation or physical activity alone in improving the quality of life measures such as overall, physical and mental health, and degree of limitation to activities due to poor health. Health care providers can support patients who successfully quit smoking to add exercise to their daily routine with the expectation of enhanced HRQoL.

The hazards of smoking and the benefits of cessation: a critical summation of the epidemiological evidence in high-income countries

In high-income countries, the biggest cause of premature death, defined as death before 70 years, is smoking of manufactured cigarettes. Smoking-related disease was responsible for about 41 million deaths in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada, cumulatively, from 1960 to 2020. Every million cigarettes smoked leads to one death in the US and Canada, but slightly more than one death in the UK. The 21^st century hazards reveal that smokers who start smoking early in adult life and do not quit lose a decade of life expectancy versus non-smokers. Cessation, particularly before age 40 years, yields large reductions in mortality risk. Up to two-thirds of deaths among smokers are avoidable at non-smoking death rates, and former smokers have about only a quarter of the excess risk of death compared to current smokers. The gap between scientific and popular understanding of smoking hazards is surprisingly large.

Effectiveness of Text-Only Cigarette Health Warnings in Japan: Findings from the 2018 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Japan Survey

Health warnings are an effective strategy for communicating the health harms of smoking, encouraging quitting, and preventing smoking initiation. This study examines the effectiveness of existing text-only health warnings, identifies key predictors of warning effectiveness, and assesses support for pictorial warnings in Japan. Data are from the 2018 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Japan Survey, a cohort survey of adult cigarette smokers (n = 3306), dual users of cigarettes and heated tobacco products (n = 555), and non-cigarette smokers (n = 823). Weighted multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess predictors of warning effectiveness and support for pictorial warnings. Overall, 15.6% of respondents noticed warnings, and 7.9% read or looked closely at warnings. Overall, 10.3% of smokers and dual users said the warnings stopped them from having a cigarette, and 7.2% avoided warnings. Overall, 27.5% of respondents said the warnings made them think about health risks of smoking, but only 2.7% of smokers and dual users said the warnings made them more likely to quit. Overall, 57.6% of respondents supported pictorial warnings. The weak effectiveness of Japan's text-only warnings is consistent with that in other countries with similar warnings. There is majority support for pictorial warnings in Japan, although the level of support is lower than in other countries.

Radiation and Risk of Liver, Biliary Tract, and Pancreatic Cancers among Atomic Bomb Survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki: 1958-2009

The Life Span Study (LSS) of atomic bomb survivors has consistently demonstrated significant excess radiation-related risks of liver cancer since the first cancer incidence report. Here, we present updated information on radiation risks of liver, biliary tract and pancreatic cancers based on 11 additional years of follow-up since the last report, from 1958 to 2009. The current analyses used improved individual radiation doses and accounted for the effects of alcohol consumption, smoking and body mass index. The study participants included 105,444 LSS participants with known individual radiation dose and no known history of cancer at the start of follow-up. Cases were the first primary incident cancers of the liver (including intrahepatic bile duct), biliary tract (gallbladder and other and unspecified parts of biliary tract) or pancreas identified through linkage with population-based cancer registries in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Poisson regression methods were used to estimate excess relative risks (ERRs) and excess absolute risks (EARs) associated with DS02R1 doses for liver (liver and biliary tract cancers) or pancreas (pancreatic cancer). We identified 2,016 incident liver cancer cases during the follow-up period. Radiation dose was significantly associated with liver cancer risk (ERR per Gy: 0.53, 95% CI: 0.23 to 0.89; EAR per 10,000 person-year Gy: 5.32, 95% CI: 2.49 to 8.51). There was no evidence for curvature in the radiation dose response (P=0.344). ERRs by age-at-exposure categories were significantly increased among those who were exposed at 0-9, 10-19 and 20-29 years, but not significantly increased after age 30 years, although there was no statistical evidence of heterogeneity in these ERRs (P = 0.378). The radiation ERRs were not affected by adjustment for smoking, alcohol consumption or body mass index. As in previously reported studies, radiation dose was not associated with risk of biliary tract cancer (ERR per Gy: -0.02, 95% CI: -0.25 to 0.30). Radiation dose was associated with a nonsignificant increase in pancreatic cancer risk (ERR per Gy: 0.38, 95% CI: <0 to 0.83). The increased risk was statistically significant among women (ERR per Gy: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.12 to 1.45), but not among men.

Smoking and Pancreatic Cancer Incidence: A Pooled Analysis of 10 Population-Based Cohort Studies in Japan

BACKGROUND

Detailed prospective evaluation of cigarette smoking associated with pancreatic cancer risk in large Asian populations is limited. The aim of this study was to examine this association in a Japanese population, with a particular focus on evaluating sex differences.

METHODS

We performed a pooled analysis of 10 population-based cohort studies. We calculated study-specific HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards regression, and then estimated summary HRs by pooling these estimates with a random effects model.

RESULTS

During 4,695,593 person-years of follow-up in 354,154 participants, 1,779 incident pancreatic cancer cases were identified. We observed an increased pancreatic cancer risk for current smoking compared with never smoking in both males [HR (95% CI), 1.59 (1.32-1.91)] and females [HR (95% CI), 1.81 (1.43-2.30)]. Significant risk elevations for former smoking and small cumulative dose of ≤20 pack-years (PY) were observed only among females, regardless of environmental tobacco smoke exposure. Trend analysis indicated significant 6% and nonsignificant 6% increases in pancreatic cancer risk for every 10 PYs in males and females, respectively. Risk became comparable with never smokers after 5 years of smoking cessation in males. In females, however, we observed no risk attenuation by smoking cessation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports the well-known association between smoking and pancreatic cancer and indicates potential sex differences in a Japanese population. Quitting smoking would be beneficial for pancreatic cancer prevention, especially in males.

IMPACT

Pancreatic cancer risk is increased with cumulative smoking exposure and decreased with smoking cessation, with potential sex differences.

Association of Baseline Smoking Status with Long-Term Prognosis in Patients Who Underwent Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: Large Single-Center Data

OBJECTIVES

This study analyzed a large sample to explain the association of baseline smoking state with long-term prognosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

BACKGROUND

Data is limited up to now regarding whether smoker's paradox exists in Chinese population.

METHODS

A total of 10724 consecutive cases were enrolled from January to December 2013. 2-year clinical outcomes were evaluated among current smokers and nonsmokers. Major adverse coronary event (MACCE) included all-cause death, revascularization, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke.

RESULTS

Current smokers and nonsmokers accounted for 57.1% and 42.9%, respectively. Current smokers were presented with predominant male sex, lower age, and less comorbidities. The rates of 2-year all-cause death were not significantly different among two groups. But the rate of stroke and bleeding was significantly higher in nonsmokers than in current smokers (1.6% and 1.1%, P=0.031; 7.2% and 6.1%, P=0.019). The rate of revascularization was significantly higher in current smokers than in nonsmokers (9.1% and 8.0%, P=0.037). Multivariable Cox regression indicated that, compared with nonsmokers, current smokers were not independently associated with all endpoints (all P>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

2-year all-cause death, MACCE, MI, revascularization, stroke, ST, and bleeding risk were similar between current smokers and nonsmokers in CAD patients undergoing PCI.

Medical Radiation Exposure among Atomic Bomb Survivors: Understanding its Impact on Risk Estimates of Atomic Bomb Radiation

There have been some concerns about the influence of medical X rays in dose-response analysis of atomic bomb radiation on health outcomes. Among atomic bomb survivors in the Life Span Study, the association between atomic bomb radiation dose and exposures to medical X rays was investigated using questionnaire data collected by a mail survey conducted between 2007-2011, soliciting information on the history of computed tomography (CT) scans, gastrointestinal fluoroscopy, angiography and radiotherapy. Among 12,670 participants, 76% received at least one CT scan; 77%, a fluoroscopic examination; 23%, an angiographic examination; and 8%, radiotherapy. Descriptive and multivariable-adjusted analyses showed that medical X rays were administered in greater frequencies among those who were exposed to an atomic bomb radiation dose of 1.0 Gy or higher, compared to those exposed to lower doses. This is possibly explained by a greater frequency in major chronic diseases such as cancer in the ≥1.0 Gy group. The frequency of medical X rays in the groups exposed to 0.005-0.1 Gy or 0.1-1.0 Gy did not differ significantly from those exposed to <0.005 Gy. An analysis of finer dose groups under 1 Gy likewise showed no differences in frequencies of medical X rays. Thus, no evidence of material confounding of atomic bomb effects was found. Among those exposed to atomic bomb doses <1 Gy, doses were not associated with medical radiation exposures. The significant association of doses ≥1 Gy with medical radiation exposures likely produces no substantive bias in radiation effect estimates because diagnostic medical X-ray doses are much lower than the atomic bomb doses. Further information on actual medical X-ray doses and on the validity of self-reports of X-ray procedures would strengthen this conclusion.

Tobacco Smoking and Mortality in Asia: A Pooled Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Understanding birth cohort-specific tobacco smoking patterns and their association with total and cause-specific mortality is important for projecting future deaths due to tobacco smoking across Asian populations.

OBJECTIVES

To assess secular trends of tobacco smoking by countries or regions and birth cohorts and evaluate the consequent mortality in Asian populations.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This pooled meta-analysis was based on individual participant data from 20 prospective cohort studies participating in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Between September 1, 2017, and March 31, 2018, a total of 1 002 258 Asian individuals 35 years or older were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis and random-effects meta-analysis. The pooled results were presented for mainland China; Japan; Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan; and India.

EXPOSURES

Tobacco use status, age at starting smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, and age at quitting smoking.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Country or region and birth cohort-specific mortality and the population attributable risk for deaths from all causes and from lung cancer.

RESULTS

Of 1 002 258 participants (51.1% women and 48.9% men; mean [SD] age at baseline, 54.6 [10.4] years), 144 366 deaths (9158 deaths from lung cancer) were ascertained during a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.7 (5.3) years. Smoking prevalence for men steadily increased in China and India, whereas it plateaued in Japan and Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. Among Asian male smokers, the mean age at starting smoking decreased in successive birth cohorts, while the mean number of cigarettes smoked per day increased. These changes were associated with an increasing relative risk of death in association with current smoking in successive birth cohorts of pre-1920, 1920s, and 1930 or later, with hazard ratios for all-cause mortality of 1.26 (95% CI, 1.17-1.37) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 1.47 (95% CI, 1.35-1.61) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 1.70 (95% CI, 1.57-1.84) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. The hazard ratios for lung cancer mortality were 3.38 (95% CI, 2.25-5.07) for the pre-1920 birth cohort, 4.74 (95% CI, 3.56-6.32) for the 1920s birth cohort, and 4.80 (95% CI, 3.71-6.19) for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking accounted for 12.5% (95% CI, 8.4%-16.3%) of all-cause mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 21.1% (95% CI, 17.3%-24.9%) of all-cause mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 29.3% (95% CI, 26.0%-32.3%) of all-cause mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. Tobacco smoking among men accounted for 56.6% (95% CI, 44.7%-66.3%) of lung cancer mortality in the pre-1920 birth cohort, 66.6% (95% CI, 58.3%-73.5%) of lung cancer mortality in the 1920s birth cohort, and 68.4% (95% CI, 61.3%-74.4%) of lung cancer mortality for the cohort born in 1930 or later. For women, tobacco smoking patterns and lung cancer mortality varied substantially by countries and regions.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this study, mortality associated with tobacco smoking continued to increase among Asian men in recent birth cohorts, indicating that tobacco smoking will remain a major public health problem in most Asian countries in the coming decades. Implementing comprehensive tobacco-control programs is warranted to end the tobacco epidemic.

Changes in Smoking Status and Mortality From All Causes and Lung Cancer: A Longitudinal Analysis of a Population-based Study in Japan

BACKGROUND

To update the findings of relative risk associated with smoking for all-cause mortality and that for lung cancer by considering longitudinal changes in smoking status during follow-up.

METHODS

Data from the JPHC study of 98,747 middle-aged Japanese adults, which started in 1990-1993, were analyzed. The information on smoking status was obtained from three questionnaire surveys (baseline, the 5th year, and the 10th year after the start of follow-up). A Poisson regression model was used to investigate the impact of smoking on mortality from all causes and lung cancer using two approaches. Model 1 used information only from baseline, while model 2 used the updated smoking status from all three surveys.

RESULTS

During the 15-year follow-up, 10,702 all-cause deaths (including 870 lung cancer cases) were identified. We compared the results obtained from two models. The relative risks associated with former smokers versus never smokers were 1.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.31-1.54) among men and 1.46 (95% CI, 1.23-1.73) among women for all-cause mortality and 2.98 (95% CI, 2.09-4.24) among men and 1.83 (95% CI, 0.92-3.64) among women for lung cancer mortality, as determined using model 2. All of these were higher than the relative risks obtained from model 1. In addition, former smokers who had quit smoking due to disease during follow-up had a higher mortality risk than continuous smokers did in this study.

CONCLUSIONS

The relative risks of all-cause mortality and mortality due to lung cancer among former smokers be higher than previously documented based on updated smoking status data from repeated surveys.

Smoking, Smoking Cessation, and Risk of Mortality in a Japanese Working Population - Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study

BACKGROUND

The effect of smoking on mortality in working-age adults remains unclear. Accordingly, we compared the effects of cigarette smoking and smoking cessation on total and cause-specific mortality in a Japanese working population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

This study included 79,114 Japanese workers aged 20-85 years who participated in the Japan Epidemiology Collaboration on Occupational Health Study. Deaths and causes of death were identified from death certificates, sick leave documents, family confirmation, and other sources. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated via Cox proportional hazards regression. During a maximum 6-year follow-up, there were 252 deaths in total. Multivariable-adjusted HRs (95% CIs) for total mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and tobacco-related cancer mortality were 1.49 (1.10-2.01), 1.79 (0.99-3.24), and 1.80 (1.02-3.19), respectively, in current vs. never smokers. Among current smokers, the risks of total, tobacco-related cancer, and CVD mortality increased with increasing cigarette consumption (Ptrend<0.05 for all). Compared with never smokers, former smokers who quit <5 and ≥5 years before baseline had HRs (95% CIs) for total mortality of 1.80 (1.00-3.25) and 1.02 (0.57-1.82), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of workers, cigarette smoking was associated with increased risk of death from all and specific causes (including CVD and tobacco-related cancer), although these risks diminished 5 years after smoking cessation.

A Novel Decision Aid to Encourage Smoking Cessation Among Patients at an Urban Safety Net Clinic

Introduction

Decision aids are not readily available to individualize the benefits of smoking cessation but could help health care providers engage in meaningful conversations with their patients to explore and encourage an attempt to quit smoking. We conducted a pilot study of a novel decision aid among an underserved population to assess its effectiveness in increasing readiness to quit and quit attempts.

Methods

We designed a decision aid that used images of birthday cakes to highlight the number of years of life that could be gained from smoking cessation and tested it in an urban safety net clinic. Active adult smokers were randomized to receive smoking cessation counseling, either with motivational interviewing techniques alone (control) or with motivational interviewing and the decision aid (intervention). The primary outcome assessed was readiness to quit, measured by using a previously validated contemplation ladder. The secondary outcome assessed was making a quit attempt.

Results

Immediately following the interview, 21.1% of patients rose on the readiness-to-quit ladder; at 1 month, 40.6%; and at 3 months, 46.6%. We saw no significant difference between the control and intervention groups immediately after the interview (P = .79), at 1 month (P = .92), or at 3 months (P = .79). Over the 3-month follow-up period, 25% of patients in the control group made a quit attempt, and 15.4% of patients in the intervention group made a quit attempt (P = .30). Patients found the decision aid useful and easy to understand.

Conclusion

Patients from an underserved population were highly receptive to a visual and personalized decision aid that highlighted the positive impact of smoking cessation. However, we found no difference in readiness to quit between patients who received motivational interviewing with the decision aid or without it.

Global Tobacco Economics Consortium. The health, poverty, and financial consequences of a cigarette price increase among 500 million male smokers in 13 middle income countries: compartmental model study

OBJECTIVE

To examine the impact of a 50% increase in market prices of cigarettes on health, poverty, and financial protection.

DESIGN

Compartmental model study.

SETTING

13 middle income countries, totalling two billion men.

PARTICIPANTS

500 million male smokers.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Life years gained, averted treatment costs, number of men avoiding catastrophic healthcare expenditures and poverty, and additional tax revenue by income group.

RESULTS

A 50% increase in cigarette prices would lead to about 450 million years of life gained across the 13 countries from smoking cessation, with half of these in China. Across all countries, men in the bottom income group (poorest 20% of the population) would gain 6.7 times more life years than men in the top income group (richest 20% of the population; 155 v 23 million). The average life years gained from cessation for each smoker in the bottom income group was 5.1 times that of the top group (1.46 v 0.23 years). Of the $157bn (£113bn; €127bn) in averted treatment costs, the bottom income group would avert 4.6 times more costs than the top income group ($46bn v $10bn). About 15.5 million men would avoid catastrophic health expenditures in a subset of seven countries without universal health coverage. As result, 8.8 million men, half of them in the bottom income group, would avoid falling below the World Bank definition of extreme poverty. These 8.8 million men constitute 2.4% of people living in extreme poverty in these countries. In contrast, the top income group would pay twice as much as the bottom income group of the $122bn additional tax collected. Overall, the bottom income group would get 31% of the life years saved and 29% each of the averted disease costs and averted catastrophic health expenditures, while paying only 10% of the additional taxes.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher prices of cigarettes provide more health and financial gains to the poorest 20% than to the richest 20% of the population. Higher excise taxes support the targets of the sustainable development goals on non-communicable diseases and poverty, and provides financial protection against illness.

Experiences of young smokers in quitting smoking in twin cities of Pakistan: a phenomenological study

BACKGROUND

Smoking is highly prevalent in Pakistan claiming the lives of over 100,000 individuals every year. A significant proportion of smokers (24.7%) make an attempt to quit each year but 97.4% fail to quit successfully. Little is known about the reasons for, and experiences of, failed quit attempts. This study was carried out to explore the experiences of young male smokers in quitting smoking in the twin cities of Pakistan METHOD: A qualitative study was carried out using a phenomenological approach in Rawalpindi and Islamabad. A total of 11 participants were interviewed. All study participants were male and had made at least one quit attempt. Study participants were a mix of smokers who failed to quit smoking, intermittent smokers and successful quitters. Streubert's (1991) method of phenomenology was followed during data analysis.

RESULTS

The experiences of smokers while smoking "the smoking phase" have major effects on their journey towards quitting smoking. The smoking phase consists of three major stages: contact with initial smoking stimuli, the journey from first puff to enjoying smoking and then finally smoking becoming part of life. However, the journey towards quitting smoking is not as simple as the journey towards becoming a smoker. Instead, smokers get trapped in three overlapping cycles of smoking and quit attempts: smoking & forced quitting, smoking & intentional quitting, and smoking & intermittent smoking before successful quitting. Breaking the cycle is not easy in the presence of trapping factors (addiction, high availability, easy affordability, conducive social setup and low perceived risks of smoking). Three factors play a major role in breaking these cycles which are strong will power, continuous peer support and avoidance of smokers' company.

CONCLUSION

A young smoker, during his experience of quitting smoking gets entrapped in several overlapping cycles of smoking & quit attempts before successful quitting. There are known entrapping factors as well as factors which help in breaking these cycles. Targeted interventions are needed to facilitate smoking cessation among young smokers in Pakistan.

Mortality reduction from quitting smoking in Hong Kong: population-wide proportional mortality study

BACKGROUND

The effects of smoking cessation might be different in different populations. Proportional mortality studies of all deaths, relating the certified cause to retrospectively determined smoking habits, have helped assess the hazards of smoking in Hong Kong, and further analyses can help assess the effects of prolonged cessation (although not of recent cessation, as life-threatening disease can itself cause cessation, particularly in old age).

METHODS

The LIMOR study sought the certified causes of all deaths in 1998, and interviewed 81% of families at death registries to determine the decedent's smoking history. Cases were deaths from pre-defined diseases of interest (N = 15 356); controls were deaths from pre-defined non-smoking-related diseases (N = 5023). Case vs control odds ratios for ex-smokers vs smokers were calculated by age-, sex- and education-standardized logistic regression. These are described as mortality rate ratios (RRs), with a group-specific confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

For the aggregate of all deaths from any of the diseases of interest at ages 35-69 years, the RRs for current smoking, quitting 0-4, 5-9 or 10+ years ago and never-smoking were, respectively, RR = 1 (95% CI 0.86-1.17), 0.91 (0.73-1.14), 0.71 (0.49-1.02), 0.66 (0.50-0.87) and 0.43 (0.37-0.48). Younger age of quitting (25-44 or 45-64) appeared to be associated with greater protection: RR = 0.58 (0.38-0.88) and 0.71 (0.54-0.93), respectively. These patterns were less clear at older ages, particularly for death from emphysema.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer durations of smoking cessation are associated with progressively lower mortality rates from the diseases of interest. For sustainable monitoring of tobacco-attributed mortality, approximate years since last smoked should be recorded during death registration.

International Differences in the Risk of Death from Smoking and Obesity: The Case of the United States and Finland

Despite much interest in the health risks associated with behavioral factors, little is known about whether individuals residing in different countries experience a different set of risks. International comparisons of the death risks from major behavioral factors can shed light on whether features of health systems and epidemiological histories modify the health effects of risky behaviors. We used nationally representative samples and mortality linkages spanning the 1971-2014 period from the United States and Finland to examine cross-national differences in the risks of death from cigarette smoking and obesity. We evaluated both current and former smoking and current and prior obesity. In 1990, the approximate midpoint of our study, the death risks from current smoking were about 55% higher in U.S. women compared to Finnish women, but similar for men in the two countries. Death risks from smoking significantly increased over the period for women in both countries and there was no parallel increase in risks among men. Death risks from obesity did not significantly differ in the two countries and no significant trend in the risks were detected in either country. Reasons for the relatively high and increasing risks from smoking among American women warrant further evaluation.

Smoking cessation and subsequent risk of cancer: A pooled analysis of eight population-based cohort studies in Japan

BACKGROUND

Although East Asia is one of the largest tobacco-epidemic regions in the world, only a few prospective studies from Asia have investigated the impact of smoking and cessation of smoking on cancer. We aimed to assess the effect of cessation of smoking on the risk of cancer using eight population-based cohort studies in Japan.

METHODS

We analyzed pooled data from eight population-based prospective cohort studies in Japan with more than 320,000 participants to assess the effect of smoking cessation on the risk of total cancers and smoking-related cancers.

RESULTS

After adjustment for potential confounders, cancer risks in men with >21years of smoking cessation before baseline were found to decrease to the same level as never smokers for total cancer (never smokers: reference; former smokers with ≥21 years since smoking cessation: HR, 1.01; 95%CI: 0.91, 1.11). Even men who are heavy smokers (more than 20 pack-years) reported a reduced risk of total cancer (never smokers: reference; former smokers with ≥21 years since smoking cessation: HR, 1.06; 95%CI: 0.92, 1.23). In women, the risk of total cancer did not differ from that of never smokers after 11 years of smoking cessation before baseline (never smokers: reference; former smokers with ≥11 years since smoking cessation: HR, 0.96; 95%CI: 0.74, 1.23).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that longer duration of smoking cessation may attenuate the risk of cancer in both men and women, and that even heavy smokers (more than 20 pack-years) were found to benefit from quitting smoking.

Hazards of cigarettes, smokeless tobacco and waterpipe in a Middle Eastern Population: a Cohort Study of 50 000 individuals from Iran

BACKGROUND

There is limited information about the hazards of cigarettes, smokeless tobacco and waterpipe in the Middle East. The aim of this study was to determine the association between different types of tobacco use and earlier death in the Golestan Cohort Study.

METHODS

The Study includes 50 045 adults (aged 40-75 years) from north eastern Iran. The baseline questionnaire (2004-2008) assessed information about use of cigarettes, chewing tobacco (nass) and waterpipe. To assess the use of each type of tobacco compared with never tobacco users, we used Cox regression models adjusted for age, socioeconomic status, area of residence, education and other tobacco used, and stratified by sex, ethnicity and opium use.

RESULTS

17% of participants reported a history of cigarette smoking, 7.5% chewing tobacco (nass) and 1.1% smoking waterpipe, and these figures declined in the later birth cohorts. During a median follow-up of 8 years, 4524 deaths occurred (mean age 64.8+9.9 years). Current (HR=1.44; 95% CI 1.28 to 1.61) and former (HR=1.35; 95% CI 1.16 to 1.56) cigarette smokers had higher overall mortality relative to never tobacco users. The highest cigarette-associated risk was for cancer death among current heavy smokers (HR=2.32; 95% CI 1.66 to 3.24). Current nass chewing was associated with overall mortality (HR=1.16; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.34), and there was a 61% higher risk of cancer death in people chewing nass more than five times a day. We observed an association between the cumulative lifetime waterpipe use (waterpipe-years≥28) and both overall (HR=1.66; 95% CI 1.11 to 2.47), and cancer mortality (HR=2.82; 95% CI 1.30 to 6.11).

CONCLUSIONS

Regular use of cigarettes, smokeless tobacco and waterpipe were associated with the risk of earlier death (particularly from cancer) in our cohort.