What does the scale-up of long-acting HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis mean for the global hepatitis B epidemic?

INTRODUCTION

The HIV and hepatitis B virus (HBV) epidemics are interconnected with shared routes of transmission and specific antiviral drugs that are effective against both viruses. Nearly, 300 million people around the world live with chronic HBV, many of whom are from priority populations who could benefit from HIV prevention services. Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV has implications in the prevention and treatment of HBV infection, but many people at increased risk of HIV acquisition may instead prefer long-acting formulations of PrEP, which are currently not active against HBV.

DISCUSSION

People at increased risk for HIV acquisition may also be at risk for or already be living with HBV infection. Oral PrEP with tenofovir is effective in preventing both HIV and HBV, and tenofovir is also the recommended treatment for chronic HBV infection. Although implementation of oral PrEP has been challenging in sub-Saharan Africa, investments in its scale-up could secondarily reduce the clinical impact of HBV. Long-acting PrEP, including injectable medicines and implantable rings, may overcome some of the implementation challenges associated with oral PrEP, such as daily pill burden, adherence challenges and stigma; however, current formulations of long-acting PrEP do not have activity against HBV replication. Ideally, PrEP programmes would offer both oral and long-acting formulations with HBV screening to optimize HIV prevention services and HBV prevention and care, when appropriate. People who are not immune to HBV would benefit from being vaccinated against HBV before initiating long-acting PrEP. People who remain non-immune to HBV despite vaccination may benefit from being offered oral, tenofovir-based PrEP given its potential for HBV PrEP. People using PrEP and living with HBV who are not linked to dedicated HBV care would also benefit from laboratory monitoring at PrEP sites to ensure safety when using and after stopping tenofovir. PrEP programmes are ideal venues to offer HBV screening, HBV vaccination for people who are non-immune and treatment with tenofovir-based PrEP for people with indications for HBV therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-acting PrEP holds promise for reducing HIV incidence, but its implications for the HBV epidemic, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, should not be overlooked.

Age-associated dementia among older people aging with HIV in the US: a modeling study

OBJECTIVE

Almost 400 000 people with HIV (PWH) in the United States are over age 55 years and at risk for age-associated dementias (AAD), including Alzheimer's disease and vascular contributions to cognitive impairment and dementia (VCID). We projected the cumulative incidence and mortality associated with AAD among PWH at least 60 years in the United States compared with the general population.

DESIGN/METHODS

Integrating the CEPAC and AgeD-Pol models, we simulated two cohorts of male and female individuals at least 60 years old: PWH, and general US population. We estimated AAD incidence and AAD-associated mortality rates. Projected outcomes included AAD cumulative incidence, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). We performed sensitivity and scenario analyses on AAD-specific (e.g. incidence) and HIV-specific (e.g. disengagement from HIV care) parameters, as well as premature aging among PWH.

RESULTS

We projected that 22.1%/16.3% of 60-year-old male individuals/female individuals with HIV would develop AAD by 80 years compared with 15.9%/13.3% of male individuals/female individuals in the general population. Accounting for age-associated and dementia-associated quality of life, 60-year-old PWH would have a lower life expectancy (QALYs): 17.4 years (14.1 QALYs) and 16.8 years (13.4 QALYs) for male and female individuals, respectively, compared with the general population [men, 21.7 years (18.4 QALYs); women, 24.7 years (20.2 QALYs)]. AAD cumulative incidence was most sensitive to non-HIV-related mortality, engagement in HIV care, and AAD incidence rates.

CONCLUSION

Projected estimates of AAD-associated morbidity, mortality, and quality of life can inform decision-makers and health systems planning as the population of PWH ages. Improved AAD prevention, treatment, and supportive care planning are critical for people aging with HIV.

Knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding the use of mobile travel health apps

We performed a survey of US international travellers to evaluate their knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding mobile technologies related to health. We found that many international travellers carry smartphones and are interested in receiving health information from a mobile app when they travel abroad.

Virological, serological and clinical outcomes in chronic hepatitis B virus infection: development and validation of the HEPA-B simulation model

OBJECTIVES

Detailed simulation models are needed to assess strategies for prevention and treatment of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, the world's leading cause of liver disease. We sought to develop and validate a simulation model of chronic HBV that incorporates virological, serological and clinical outcomes.

METHODS

We developed a novel Monte Carlo simulation model (the HEPA-B Model) detailing the natural history of chronic HBV. We parameterised the model with epidemiological data from the Western Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. We simulated the evolution of HBV DNA, 'e' antigen (HBeAg) and surface antigen (HBsAg). We projected incidence of HBeAg loss, HBsAg loss, cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death over 10-year and lifetime horizons. We stratified outcomes by five HBV DNA categories at the time of HBeAg loss, ranging from HBV DNA<300 copies/mL to >106 copies/mL. We tested goodness of fit using intraclass coefficients (ICC).

RESULTS

Model-projected incidence of HBeAg loss was 5.18% per year over lifetime (ICC, 0.969 (95% CI: 0.728 to 0.990)). For people in HBeAg-negative phases of infection, model-projected HBsAg loss ranged from 0.78% to 3.34% per year depending on HBV DNA level (ICC, 0.889 (95% CI: 0.542 to 0.959)). Model-projected incidence of cirrhosis was 0.29-2.09% per year (ICC, 0.965 (95% CI: 0.942 to 0.979)) and HCC incidence was 0.06-1.65% per year (ICC, 0.977 (95% CI: 0.962 to 0.986)). Over a lifetime simulation of HBV disease, mortality rates were higher for people with older age, higher HBV DNA level and liver-related complications, consistent with observational studies.

CONCLUSIONS

We simulated HBV DNA-stratified clinical outcomes with the novel HEPA-B Model and validated them to observational data. This model can be used to examine strategies of HBV prevention and management.

The forecasted prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in people with HIV in the United States through the year 2030: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Estimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs. The objective of our study was to forecast the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the United States (US) through 2030.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Using the PEARL model-an agent-based simulation of PWH who have initiated ART in the US-the prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV) were forecasted through 2030. Simulations were informed by the US CDC HIV surveillance data of new HIV diagnosis and the longitudinal North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) data on risk of comorbidities from 2009 to 2017. The simulated population represented 15 subgroups of PWH including Hispanic, non-Hispanic White (White), and non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black/AA) men who have sex with men (MSM), men and women with history of injection drug use and heterosexual men and women. Simulations were replicated for 200 runs and forecasted outcomes are presented as median values (95% uncertainty ranges are presented in the Supporting information). In 2020, PEARL forecasted a median population of 670,000 individuals receiving ART in the US, of whom 9% men and 4% women with history of injection drug use, 60% MSM, 8% heterosexual men, and 19% heterosexual women. Additionally, 44% were Black/AA, 32% White, and 23% Hispanic. Along with a gradual rise in population size of PWH receiving ART-reaching 908,000 individuals by 2030-PEARL forecasted a surge in prevalence of most comorbidities to 2030. Depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension decreased while dyslipidemia, diabetes, CKD, and MI increased. There was little change in prevalence of cancer and ESLD. The forecasted multimorbidity among PWH receiving ART increased from 63% in 2020 to 70% in 2030. There was heterogeneity in trends across subgroups. Among Black women with history of injection drug use in 2030 (oldest demographic subgroup with median age of 66 year), dyslipidemia, CKD, hypertension, diabetes, anxiety, and depression were most prevalent, with 92% experiencing multimorbidity. Among Black MSM in 2030 (youngest demographic subgroup with median age of 42 year), depression and CKD were highly prevalent, with 57% experiencing multimorbidity. These results are limited by the assumption that trends in new HIV diagnoses, mortality, and comorbidity risk observed in 2009 to 2017 will persist through 2030; influences occurring outside this period are not accounted for in the forecasts.

CONCLUSIONS

The PEARL forecasts suggest a continued rise in comorbidity and multimorbidity prevalence to 2030, marked by heterogeneities across race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups. HIV clinicians must stay current on the ever-changing comorbidities-specific guidelines to provide guideline-recommended care. HIV clinical directors should ensure linkages to subspecialty care within the clinic or by referral. HIV policy decision-makers must allocate resources and support extended clinical capacity to meet the healthcare needs of people aging with HIV.

Need for open data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people in the Caribbean: a call to action

Pregnant people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have a higher risk of adverse maternal and fetal outcomes compared with pregnant people without COVID-19. In 2021, large increases in maternal mortality were reported in Jamaica, almost half of which were attributable to COVID-19. COVID-19 vaccination has been shown to reduce these risks, but low- and middle-income countries lack free, publicly available data, known as open data, on COVID-19 vaccine uptake for their pregnant populations. The objectives of this paper were to: review how high-income countries use open data to detect trends in COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people and develop vaccination distribution strategies; outline barriers to making open data available for maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the Caribbean; and propose a multipronged strategy that would increase the availability of open data on maternal COVID-19 vaccination in the Caribbean. A multipronged strategy to fill the data void would involve: (i) utilizing existing Caribbean maternal immunization data collection entities; (ii) adapting digital software tools to establish maternal electronic immunization registries; and (iii) collaborating with local partners skilled in data analytics. Making open data available for COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant people in the Caribbean could offer substantial benefits, including the development of measurable maternal COVID-19 vaccination goals and the facilitation of vaccine decision-making discussions between providers and pregnant people.

Projected Life Expectancy Gains From Improvements in HIV Care in Black and White Men Who Have Sex With Men

Importance

Substantial racial inequities exist across the HIV care continuum between non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US.

Objectives

To project years of life gained (YLG) with improving the HIV care continuum among Black MSM and White MSM in the US and to determine the outcomes of achieving health equity goals.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model was used and populated with 2021 race-specific data to simulate HIV care among Black MSM and White MSM in the US who have acquired HIV. Analyses were completed from July 2021 to October 2023.

Intervention

The study simulated status quo care using race-specific estimates: age at infection, time to diagnosis, receipt of care, and virologic suppression. The study next projected the outcomes of attaining equity-centered vs non-equity-centered goals by simulating 2 equal improvements in care goals: (10-point increased receipt of care and 5-point increased virologic suppression), 3 equity-centered goals (annual HIV testing, 95% receiving HIV care, and 95% virologic suppression) and lastly, an equitable care continuum that achieves annual HIV testing, 95% receiving care, and 95% virologic suppression in Black MSM and White MSM. One-way and multiway sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Mean age at death and YLG.

Results

In the simulated cohort, the mean (SD) age at HIV infection was 27.0 (10.8) years for Black MSM and 35.5 (13.6) years for White MSM. In status quo, mean age at death would be 68.8 years for Black MSM and 75.6 years for White MSM. The equal improvements in care goals would result in 0.5 YLG for Black MSM and 0.5 to 0.9 YLG for White MSM. Achieving any 1 equity-centered goal would result in 0.5 to 1.7 YLG for Black MSM and 0.4 to 1.3 YLG for White MSM. With an equitable care continuum compared with the nationally reported status quo, Black MSM and White MSM would gain 3.5 and 2.1 life-years, respectively. If the status quo HIV testing was every 6 years with 75% retained in care and 75% virologically suppressed, Black MSM would gain 4.2 life-years with an equitable care continuum.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this simulation modeling study of HIV care goals, equal improvements in HIV care for Black and White MSM maintained or worsened inequities. These results suggest that equity-centered goals for the HIV care continuum are critical to mitigate long-standing inequities in HIV outcomes.

Impact of subgroup-specific heterogeneities and dynamic changes in mortality rates on forecasted population size, deaths, and age distribution of persons receiving antiretroviral treatment in the United States: a computer simulation study

PURPOSE

Model-based forecasts of population size, deaths, and age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) are helpful for public health and clinical services planning but are influenced by subgroup-specific heterogeneities and changes in mortality rates.

METHODS

Using an agent-based simulation of PWH in the United States, we examined the impact of distinct approaches to parametrizing mortality rates on forecasted epidemiology of PWH on antiretroviral treatment (ART). We first estimated mortality rates among (1) all PWH, (2) sex-specific, (3) sex-and-race/ethnicity-specific, and (4) sex-race/ethnicity-and-HIV-acquisition-risk-specific subgroups. We then assessed each scenario by (1) allowing unrestricted reductions in age-specific mortality rates over time and (2) restricting the mortality rates among PWH to subgroup-specific mortality thresholds from the general population.

RESULTS

Among the eight scenarios examined, those lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates forecasted the lowest number of deaths among all PWH and 9 of the 15 subgroups through 2030. The forecasted overall number and age distribution of people with a history of injection drug use were sensitive to inclusion of subgroup-specific mortality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results underscore the potential risk of underestimating future deaths by models lacking subgroup-specific heterogeneities in mortality rates, and those allowing unrestricted reductions in future mortality rates.

Influenza: seasonality and travel-related considerations

RATIONALE FOR REVIEW

This review aims to summarize the transmission patterns of influenza, its seasonality in different parts of the globe, air travel- and cruise ship-related influenza infections and interventions to reduce transmission.

KEY FINDINGS

The seasonality of influenza varies globally, with peak periods occurring mainly between October and April in the northern hemisphere (NH) and between April and October in the southern hemisphere (SH) in temperate climate zones. However, influenza seasonality is significantly more variable in the tropics. Influenza is one of the most common travel-related, vaccine-preventable diseases and can be contracted during travel, such as during a cruise or through air travel. Additionally, travellers can come into contact with people from regions with ongoing influenza transmission. Current influenza immunization schedules in the NH and SH leave individuals susceptible during their respective spring and summer months if they travel to the other hemisphere during that time.

CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS

The differences in influenza seasonality between hemispheres have substantial implications for the effectiveness of influenza vaccination of travellers. Health care providers should be aware of influenza activity when patients report travel plans, and they should provide alerts and advise on prevention, diagnostic and treatment options. To mitigate the risk of travel-related influenza, interventions include antivirals for self-treatment (in combination with the use of rapid self-tests), extending the shelf life of influenza vaccines to enable immunization during the summer months for international travellers and allowing access to the influenza vaccine used in the opposite hemisphere as a travel-related vaccine. With the currently available vaccines, the most important preventive measure involves optimizing the seasonal influenza vaccination. It is also imperative that influenza is recognized as a travel-related illness among both travellers and health care professionals.

Development and Validation of a Simulation Model for Treatment to Maintain Remission in Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis

OBJECTIVE

Fixed and tailored rituximab retreatment strategies to maintain remission in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV) are associated with tradeoffs. The current study was undertaken to develop a simulation model (AAV-Sim) to project clinical outcomes with these strategies.

METHODS

We developed the AAV-Sim, a microsimulation model of clinical events among individuals with AAV initiating treatment to maintain remission. Individuals transition between health states of remission or relapse and are at risk for severe infection, end-stage renal disease, or death. We estimated transition rates from published literature, stratified by individual-level characteristics. We performed validation using the mean average percent error (MAPE) and the coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CV-RMSE). In internal validation, we compared model-projected outcomes over 28 months with outcomes observed in the Rituximab versus Azathioprine in ANCA-Associated Vasculitis 2 (MAINRITSAN2) trial, which compared fixed versus tailored retreatment. In external validation, we compared outcomes with fixed rituximab retreatment from the AAV-Sim to outcomes from the MAINRITSAN1 trial and an observational study.

RESULTS

The AAV-Sim projected outcomes similar to those in the MAINRITSAN2 trial, including minor (AAV-Sim 6.0% fixed versus 7.3% tailored; MAINRITSAN2 6.2% versus 8.6%; MAPE 3% and 15%) and major relapse (AAV-Sim 3.5% versus 5.5%; MAINRITSAN2 3.7% versus 7.4%; MAPE 5% and 26%), severe infection (AAV-Sim 19.4% versus 11.1%; MAINRITSAN2 19.8% versus 10.2%; MAPE 2% and 9%), and relapse-free survival (AAV-Sim 84.8% versus 82.3%; MAINRITSAN2 86% versus 84%; CV-RMSE 2.3% and 2.5%). Similar performance was observed in external validation.

CONCLUSION

The AAV-Sim projected a range of clinical outcomes for different treatment approaches that were validated against published data. The AAV-Sim has the potential to inform management guidelines and research priorities.

The association between all-cause mortality and HIV acquisition risk groups in the United States, 2001-2014

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between all-cause mortality and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition risk groups among people without HIV in the United States.

METHODS

We used data from 23,657 (NHANES) participants (2001-2014) and the Linked Mortality File to classify individuals without known HIV into HIV acquisition risk groups: people who ever injected drugs (ever-PWID); men who have sex with men (MSM); heterosexually active people at increased risk for HIV (HIH), using low income as a proxy for increased risk. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted and unadjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

RESULTS

Compared with sex-specific heterosexually active people at average risk for HIV (HAH), the adjusted HR (95% CI) were: male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46), female ever-PWID 3.50 (2.04, 6.01), MSM 1.51 (1.00, 2.27), male HIH 1.68 (1.04, 2.06), female HIH 2.35 (1.87, 2.95), and male ever-PWID 1.67 (1.14, 2.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Most people at increased risk for HIV in the US experience higher all-cause mortality than people at average risk. Strategies addressing social determinants that increase HIV risk should be incorporated into HIV prevention and other health promotion programs.

The Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Clinic-Based Cognitive Behavioral Therapy for People With HIV, Depression, and Virologic Failure in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Depression affects 25%-30% of people with HIV (PWH) in the Republic of South Africa (RSA) and is associated with both antiretroviral therapy (ART) nonadherence and increased mortality. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of task-shifted, cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for PWH with diagnosed depression and virologic failure from a randomized trial in RSA.

SETTING

RSA.

METHODS

Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model, we simulated both trial strategies: enhanced treatment as usual (ETAU) and ETAU plus CBT for ART adherence and depression (CBT-AD; 8 sessions plus 2 follow-ups). In the trial, viral suppression at 1 year was 20% with ETAU and 32% with CBT-AD. Model inputs included mean initial age (39 years) and CD4 count (214/μL), ART costs ($7.5-22/mo), and CBT costs ($29/session). We projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs: $/QALY [discounted 3%/yr]; cost-effectiveness threshold: ≤$2545/QALY [0.5× per capita GDP]). In sensitivity analyses, we determined how input parameter variation affected cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

Model-projected 5- and 10-year viral suppression were 18.9% and 8.7% with ETAU and 21.2% and 9.7% with CBT-AD, respectively. Compared with ETAU, CBT-AD would increase discounted life expectancy from 4.12 to 4.68 QALYs and costs from $6210/person to $6670/person (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $840/QALY). CBT-AD would remain cost-effective unless CBT-AD cost >$70/session and simultaneously improved 1-year viral suppression by ≤4% compared with ETAU.

CONCLUSIONS

CBT for PWH with depression and virologic failure in RSA could improve life expectancy and be cost-effective. Such targeted mental health interventions should be integrated into HIV care.

Projected Benefits of Long-Acting Antiretroviral Therapy in Nonsuppressed People With Human Immunodeficiency Virus Experiencing Adherence Barriers

Background

In a demonstration project, long-acting, injectable cabotegravir-rilpivirine (CAB-RPV) achieved viral suppression in a high proportion of people with HIV (PWH) who were virologically nonsuppressed with adherence barriers. We projected the long-term impact of CAB-RPV for nonsuppressed PWH experiencing adherence barriers.

Methods

Using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, we compared 3 strategies: (1) standard of care oral integrase inhibitor-based ART (INSTI); (2) INSTI-based ART with supportive social services ("wraparound services" [WS]) (INSTI/WS); and (3) CAB-RPV with WS (CAB-RPV/WS). Model outcomes included viral suppression (%) and engagement in care (%) at 3 years, and life expectancy (life-years [LYs]). Base case cohort characteristics included mean age of 47y (standard deviation [SD], 10y), 90% male at birth, and baseline mean CD4 count 150/µL (SD, 75/µL). Viral suppression at 3 months was 13% (INSTI), 28% (INSTI/WS), and 60% (CAB-RPV/WS). Mean loss to follow-up was 28/100 person-years (PY) (SD, 2/100 PY) without WS and 16/100 PY (SD, 1/100 PY) with WS.

Results

Projected viral suppression at 3 years would vary widely: 16% (INSTI), 38% (INSTI/WS), and 44% (CAB-RPV/WS). Life expectancy would be 7.4 LY (INSTI), 9.0 LY (INSTI/WS), and 9.4 LY (CAB-RPV/WS). Projected benefits over oral ART would be greater for PWH initiating CAB-RPV/WS at lower CD4 counts. Across plausible key parameter ranges, CAB-RPV/WS would improve viral suppression and life expectancy compared with oral INSTI strategies.

Conclusions

These model-based results support that long-acting injectable CAB-RPV with extensive support services for nonsuppressed PWH experiencing adherence barriers is likely to increase viral suppression and improve survival. A prospective study to provide further evidence is needed.

Factors Associated With Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccine Uptake Among Pregnant Women and Nonpregnant Women of Reproductive Age in Jamaica

Background

Despite high rates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)-related maternal mortality, Jamaica currently has little data on COVID-19 vaccine uptake among pregnant women.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional, web-based survey of 192 reproductive-aged women in Jamaica from February 1 to 8, 2022. Participants were recruited from a convenience sample of patients, providers, and staff at a teaching hospital. We assessed self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status and COVID-19-related medical mistrust (operationalized as vaccine confidence, government mistrust, and race-based mistrust). We used multivariable modified Poisson regression to test the association between vaccine uptake and pregnancy.

Results

Of 192 respondents, 72 (38%) were pregnant. Most (93%) were Black. Vaccine uptake was 35% in pregnant women versus 75% in nonpregnant women. Pregnant women were more likely to cite healthcare providers versus the government as trustworthy sources of COVID-19 vaccine information (65% vs 28%). Pregnancy, low vaccine confidence, and government mistrust were associated with a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR] = 0.68 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .49-.95], aPR = 0.61 [95% CI, .40-.95], and aPR = 0.68 [95% CI, .52-.89], respectively). Race-based mistrust was not associated with COVID-19 vaccination in the final model.

Conclusions

Pregnancy, low vaccine confidence, and government mistrust were associated with a lower likelihood of COVID-19 vaccination among reproductive-aged women in Jamaica. Future studies should evaluate the efficacy of strategies proven to improve maternal vaccination coverage, including standing "opt-out" vaccination orders and collaborative provider and patient-led educational videos tailored for pregnant individuals. Strategies that decouple vaccine messaging from government agencies also warrant evaluation.

Distinguishing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Persistence and Reinfection: A Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection is poorly understood, partly because few studies have systematically applied genomic analysis to distinguish reinfection from persistent RNA detection related to initial infection. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and persistent RNA detection using independent genomic, clinical, and laboratory assessments.

METHODS

All individuals at a large academic medical center who underwent a SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) ≥45 days after an initial positive test, with both tests between 14 March and 30 December 2020, were analyzed for potential reinfection. Inclusion criteria required having ≥2 positive NAATs collected ≥45 days apart with a cycle threshold (Ct) value <35 at repeat testing. For each included subject, likelihood of reinfection was assessed by viral genomic analysis of all available specimens with a Ct value <35, structured Ct trajectory criteria, and case-by-case review by infectious diseases physicians.

RESULTS

Among 1569 individuals with repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing ≥45 days after an initial positive NAAT, 65 (4%) met cohort inclusion criteria. Viral genomic analysis characterized mutations present and was successful for 14/65 (22%) subjects. Six subjects had genomically supported reinfection, and 8 subjects had genomically supported persistent RNA detection. Compared to viral genomic analysis, clinical and laboratory assessments correctly distinguished reinfection from persistent RNA detection in 12/14 (86%) subjects but missed 2/6 (33%) genomically supported reinfections.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite good overall concordance with viral genomic analysis, clinical and Ct value-based assessments failed to identify 33% of genomically supported reinfections. Scaling-up genomic analysis for clinical use would improve detection of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections.

A Growing Number of Men Who Have Sex With Men Aging With HIV (20212031): A Comparison of Two Microsimulation Models

BACKGROUND

Men who have sex with men (MSM) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) are at risk for multimorbidity as life expectancy increases. Simulation models can project population sizes and age distributions to assist with health policy planning.

METHODS

We populated the CEPAC-US model with CDC data to project the HIV epidemic among MSM in the United States. The PEARL model was predominantly informed by NA-ACCORD data (20092017). We compared projected population sizes and age distributions of MSM receiving ART (20212031) and investigated how parameters and assumptions affected results.

RESULTS

We projected an aging and increasing population of MSM on ART: CEPAC-US, mean age 48.6 (SD 13.7) years in 2021 versus 53.9 (SD 15.0) years in 2031; PEARL, 46.7 (SD 13.2) years versus 49.2 (SD 14.6) years. We projected 548 800 MSM on ART (147 020 65 years) in 2031 (CEPAC-US) and 599 410 (113 400 65 years) (PEARL). Compared with PEARL, CEPAC-US projected a smaller population of MSM on ART by 2031 and a slower increase in population size, driven by higher estimates of disengagement in care and mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from two structurally distinct microsimulation models suggest that the MSM population receiving ART in the United States will increase and age over the next decade. Subgroup-specific data regarding engagement in care and mortality can improve projections and inform health care policy planning.

Diet, physical activity, and obesity among ART-experienced people with HIV in South Africa

The prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is increasing in South Africa, in part due to poor nutrition, physical inactivity, and obesity. We characterized the habits and understanding of diet, exercise, and obesity among people with HIV (PWH) taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). We conducted a cross-sectional study of ART-experienced PWH attending an HIV community health center near Cape Town, South Africa. We included PWH currently prescribed ART, older than 21y, and not pregnant. We collected demographic and clinical information and interviewed participants regarding their behaviors and knowledge related to diet, physical activity, and obesity. From March 2015 - February 2016, we enrolled 458 participants. Self-reported diets were low in nutritional diversity: 202 reported eating only starch and protein without vegetable/fruit in the prior 24 h. Although most participants (96%) acknowledged that exercise had health benefits, only 215 participants engaged in daily 30-minute walking or exercise. One quarter of participants recognized nocontributors to obesity, and almost 20% identified no health problems associated with obesity. Participants had diets low in nutritional diversity, modest exercise habits, and limited understanding of the impact of obesity on health. Further understanding of barriers to improving diet and exercise and reducing obesity are essential, especially as PWH age.

798. Life-years Gained among non-Hispanic Black and White Men who have Sex with Men in the United States with Improvements in the HIV Care Continuum A Simulation Modeling Study

Background

Structural barriers and racism result in inequities across the HIV care continuum. We quantified the magnitude of racial disparities in life expectancy (LE) and the potential impact of interventions to improve the HIV care continuum among non-Hispanic Black and White men who have sex with men (MSM) in the US.

Methods

Using the validated CEPAC microsimulation HIV model, we projected LE among non-Hispanic Black MSM (BMSM) and White MSM (WMSM). We estimated average age at HIV infection (BMSM: 26.8y, WMSM: 35.0y) and time from infection to diagnosis (BMSM: 3.4y, WMSM: 3.0y) using US race-stratified data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) (Table 1). To account for differences in the HIV care continuum, we calibrated input parameters to race-specific estimates of: 1) the proportion of time that MSM with diagnosed HIV are retained in care (BMSM: 75.2%, WMSM: 80.6%), and 2) the % of MSM with diagnosed HIV who attain virologic suppression (VS; BMSM: 82.0%, WMSM: 91.2%). To account for increased risk of non-HIV-related mortality, we adjusted race-stratified life tables for smoking. We then projected LE from age 15 in five scenarios: 1) status quo HIV care (2019 estimates of HIV testing, VS, and retention in care), 2) earlier diagnosis (via annual testing), 3) improved retention in care (95% retention via reduced loss to follow-up), 4) improved VS (95% VS among MSM in care), and 5) a combined strategy (annual testing, 95% retention, 95% VS).

Results

Among MSM in status quo HIV care, we projected LE from age 15 to be 52.2y (BMSM) and 58.5y (WMSM), a difference of 6.3 years (Figure 1). With annual testing, BMSM would gain 0.6 life-years (LY), and WMSM would gain 0.3 LY compared with status quo care. Improving retention in care to 95% would result in a gain of 1.4 LY for BMSM and 1.0 LY for WMSM. BMSM would gain 1.1 LY if VS increased to 95% among those in care, whereas WMSM would gain 0.3 LY. BMSM would gain 3.4 LY (LE from age 15: 55.6y) and WMSM 1.6 LY (LE from age 15: 60.1y) in the combined strategy.

Conclusion

Equity-focused solutions that specifically target investment in HIV care for Black MSM will be critical to reduce disparities in HIV care outcomes and improve LE.

Disclosures

Krishna Reddy, MD, MS, UpToDate, Inc.: Author Aimalohi Ahonkhai, MD, MPH, Bryan Allen Events LLC for Gilead: Advisor/Consultant|ViiV: Advisor/Consultant.

1950. Factors Influencing COVID-19 Vaccine Uptake among Reproductive-Aged Women in Jamaica

Background

Little is known about the factors which influence COVID-19 vaccine uptake among reproductive-aged women in Jamaica.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional, web-based survey of 192 reproductive-aged women in Jamaica from February 1- 8, 2022. Participants were recruited from a convenience sample of women (patients, providers and staff) at a tertiary care hospital whose demographic characteristics are shown in Table 1. We assessed self-reported COVID-19 vaccination status, vaccine confidence (defined as confidence in the safety and efficacy of vaccines and the system that delivers them) and medical mistrust beliefs (e.g., “I don’t trust the COVID-19 vaccine”). We conducted exploratory factor analysis using principal axis factoring and oblique equamax rotation on 22 survey items. Three factors were extracted which conceptually aligned with three subscales: lack of vaccine confidence, government-related COVID-19 medical mistrust, and race-based COVID-19 medical mistrust; we retained items with factor loadings &gt; 0.40. The final subscale variables and their descriptive statistics are shown in Table 2. In addition, we used multivariable modified Poisson regression to calculate adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between vaccine uptake and pregnancy status adjusting for education and factors scores. Variables with a p value &lt; 0.1 were retained in the final regression model.

Results

Of 192 respondents, 72(38%) were pregnant and 120 (62%) were non-pregnant. Pregnancy was negatively associated with vaccine uptake (aPR=0.70, 95%CI=0.51 - 0.96; p=0.029). Women with higher scores on the lack of vaccine confidence subscale (i.e., less confident in vaccine) were less likely to be vaccinated (aPR=0.72, 95%CI=0.61 - 0.86; p&lt; 0.001). Government-related COVID-19 medical mistrust and race-based COVID-19 medical mistrust were not significantly associated with vaccine uptake (see Table 3).

Conclusion

Findings suggest that pregnancy and lack of vaccine confidence are factors associated with lower vaccine uptake among reproductive-aged women in Jamaica. Bolstering vaccine confidence, through the use of evidence-based interventions, may help to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake in this population.

Disclosures

All Authors: No reported disclosures.

Clearance of Hepatitis B e Antigen in Untreated Chronic Hepatitis B Virus Infection: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In people with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, persistence of hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) is associated with clinical progression and need for treatment. HBeAg loss represents partial immune control and is a critical event in the natural history of chronic HBV.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies that report HBeAg loss among people with untreated chronic HBV. We evaluated HBeAg loss using a random-effects model and conducted subanalysis on region.

RESULTS

We screened 10 560 publications, performed 196 full-text analyses, and included 26 studies for meta-analysis. The pooled rate of HBeAg loss was 6.46/100 person-years (PYs) (95% confidence interval, 5.17-8.08). Meta-regression showed that older age of participants and studies in Europe were associated with higher rate of HBeAg loss. Rates per 100 PYs were 7.43 (95% confidence interval, 6.30-8.75; 1 study) in Africa, 3.24 (2.61--4.02; 1 study) in the Eastern Mediterranean, 13.67 (11.21-16.66; 4 studies) in Europe, 7.34 (4.61--11.70; 5 studies) in North America, and 5.53 (4.05--7.55; 15 studies) in the Western Pacific.

CONCLUSIONS

Spontaneous HBeAg loss occurs at a rate of 6.46/100 PYs. Variations by region and age group may reflect epidemiological, immunological, or HBV genotype-related differences.

Cardiovascular Disease Projections in the United States Based on the 2020 Census Estimates

BACKGROUND

Understanding trends in cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and CV disease according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity is important for policy planning and public health interventions.

OBJECTIVES

The goal of this study was to project the number of people with CV risk factors and disease and further explore sex, race, and ethnical disparities.

METHODS

The prevalence of CV risk factors (diabetes mellitus, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and obesity) and CV disease (ischemic heart disease, heart failure, myocardial infarction, and stroke) according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity was estimated by using logistic regression models based on 2013-2018 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data and further combining them with 2020 U.S. Census projection counts for years 2025-2060.

RESULTS

By the year 2060, compared with the year 2025, the number of people with diabetes mellitus will increase by 39.3% (39.2 million [M] to 54.6M), hypertension by 27.2% (127.8M to 162.5M), dyslipidemia by 27.5% (98.6M to 125.7M), and obesity by 18.3% (106.3M to 125.7M). Concurrently, projected prevalence will similarly increase compared with 2025 for ischemic heart disease by 31.1% (21.9M to 28.7M), heart failure by 33.0% (9.7M to 12.9M), myocardial infarction by 30.1% (12.3M to 16.0M), and stroke by 34.3% (10.8M to 14.5M). Among White individuals, the prevalence of CV risk factors and disease is projected to decrease, whereas significant increases are projected in racial and ethnic minorities.

CONCLUSIONS

Large future increases in CV risk factors and CV disease prevalence are projected, disproportionately affecting racial and ethnic minorities. Future health policies and public health efforts should take these results into account to provide quality, affordable, and accessible health care.

High-risk US international travelers seeking pretravel consultation during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

To assess the implications of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)–related travel disruptions, we compared demographics and travel-related circumstances of US travelers seeking pretravel consultation regarding international travel at US Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) sites before and after the initiation of COVID-19 travel warnings.

Methods

We analyzed data in the GTEN database regarding traveler demographics and travel-related circumstances with standard questionnaires in the pre-COVID-19 period (January–December 2019) and the COVID-19 period (April 2020–March 2021), excluding travelers from January to March 2020. We conducted descriptive analyses of differences in demographics, travel-related circumstances, routine and travel-related vaccinations, and medications.

Results

Compared with 16 903 consultations in the pre-COVID-19 period, only 1564 consultations were recorded at GTEN sites during the COVID-19 period (90% reduction), with a greater proportion of travelers visiting friends and relatives (501/1564 [32%] vs 1525/16 903 [9%]), individuals traveling for >28 days (824/1564 [53%] vs 2522/16 903 [15%]), young children (6 mo–<6 y: 168/1564 [11%] vs 500/16 903 [3%]), and individuals traveling to Africa (1084/1564 [69%] vs 8049/16 903 [48%]). A smaller percentage of vaccine-eligible travelers received vaccines at pretravel consultations during the COVID-19 period than before, except for yellow fever and Japanese encephalitis vaccinations.

Conclusions

Compared with the pre-COVID-19 period, a greater proportion of travelers during the COVID-19 period were young children, were planning to visit friends and relatives, were traveling for >28 days, or were traveling to Africa, which are circumstances that contribute to high risk for travel-related infections. Fewer vaccine-eligible travelers were administered travel-related vaccines at pretravel consultations. Counseling and vaccination focused on high-risk international travelers must be prioritized during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evaluation of four chemotherapy regimens for treatment of advanced AIDS-associated Kaposi sarcoma in Kenya: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The most effective treatment for advanced AIDS-associated Kaposi sarcoma is paclitaxel or pegylated liposomal doxorubicin (PLD); neither is routinely used in sub-Saharan Africa due to limited availability and high cost. We examined the clinical impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of paclitaxel or PLD in Kenya, compared with etoposide or bleomycin-vincristine.

METHODS

In this study, we use the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC)-International Model to project clinical outcomes and costs among people living with HIV and advanced Kaposi sarcoma on antiretroviral therapy. We compared four different treatment strategies: etoposide, bleomycin-vincristine, paclitaxel, or PLD. We derived cohort characteristics and costs from the Kenyan Academic Model for Providing Access to Healthcare network, and adverse events, efficacy, and mortality from clinical trials. We projected model outcomes over a lifetime and included life expectancy, per-person lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We conducted budget impact analysis for 5-year total costs and did deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to evaluate the effect of uncertainty in input parameters.

FINDINGS

We found that paclitaxel would be more effective than bleomycin-vincristine and would increase life expectancy by 4·2 years per person. PLD would further increase life expectancy by 0·6 years per person. Paclitaxel would be the most cost-effective strategy (ICER US$380 per year-of-life-saved compared with bleomycin-vincristine) and would remain cost-effective across a range of scenarios. PLD would be cost-effective compared with paclitaxel if its price were reduced to $100 per cycle (base case $180 per cycle). Implementing paclitaxel instead of bleomycin-vincristine would save approximately 6400 life-years and would increase the overall 5-year Kenyan health-care costs by $3·7 million; increased costs would be primarily related to ongoing HIV care given improved survival.

INTERPRETATION

Paclitaxel would substantially increase life expectancy and be cost-effective compared with bleomycin-vincristine for advanced AIDS-associated Kaposi sarcoma in Kenya and should be the standard of care. PLD would further improve survival and be cost-effective with a 44% price reduction.

FUNDING

US National Institutes of Health and Massachusetts General Hospital.

TRANSLATION

For the Swahili translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing, Linkage, and Early Antiretroviral Treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project

BACKGROUND

The Botswana Combination Prevention Project tested the impact of combination prevention (CP) on HIV incidence in a community-randomized trial. Each trial arm had ∼55,000 people, 26% HIV prevalence, and 72% baseline ART coverage. Results showed intensive testing and linkage campaigns, expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART), and voluntary male medical circumcision referrals increased coverage and decreased incidence over ∼29 months of follow-up. We projected lifetime clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of CP in this population.

SETTING

Rural and periurban communities in Botswana.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model to estimate lifetime health impact and cost of (1) earlier ART initiation and (2) averting an HIV infection, which we applied to incremental ART initiations and averted infections calculated from trial data. We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [US$/quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)] for CP vs. standard of care.

RESULTS

In CP, 1418 additional people with HIV initiated ART and an additional 304 infections were averted. For each additional person started on ART, life expectancy increased 0.90 QALYs and care costs increased by $869. For each infection averted, life expectancy increased 2.43 QALYs with $9200 in care costs saved. With CP, an additional $1.7 million were spent on prevention and $1.2 million on earlier treatment. These costs were mostly offset by decreased care costs from averted infections, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $79 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced HIV testing, linkage, and early ART initiation improve life expectancy, reduce transmission, and can be cost-effective or cost-saving in settings like Botswana.

Development and validation of the age-associated dementia policy (AgeD-Pol) computer simulation model in the USA and Europe

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a novel, microsimulation model that accounts for the prevalence and incidence of age-associated dementias (AAD), disease progression and associated mortality.

DESIGN, DATA SOURCES AND OUTCOME MEASURES

We developed the AAD policy (AgeD-Pol) model, a microsimulation model to simulate the natural history, morbidity and mortality associated with AAD. We populated the model with age-stratified and sex-stratified data on AAD prevalence, AAD incidence and mortality among people with AAD. We first performed internal validation using data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) cohort study. We then performed external validation of the model using data from the Framingham Heart Study, the Rotterdam Study and Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC). We compared model-projected AAD cumulative incidence and mortality with published cohort data using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and root-mean-square error (RMSE).

RESULTS

In internal validation, the AgeD-Pol model provided a good fit to the ACT cohort for cumulative AAD incidence, 10.4% (MAPE, 0.2%) and survival, 66.5% (MAPE, 8.8%), after 16 years of follow-up among those initially aged 65-69 years. In the external validations, the model-projected lifetime cumulative incidence of AAD was 30.5%-32.4% (females) and 16.7%-23.0% (males), using data from the Framingham and Rotterdam cohorts, and AAD cumulative incidence was 21.5% over 14 years using KPNC data. Model projections demonstrated a good fit to all three cohorts (MAPE, 0.9%-9.0%). Similarly, model-projected survival provided good fit to the Rotterdam (RMSE, 1.9-3.6 among those with and without AAD) and KPNC cohorts (RMSE, 7.6-18.0 among those with AAD).

CONCLUSIONS

The AgeD-Pol model performed well when validated to published data for AAD cumulative incidence and mortality and provides a useful tool to project the AAD disease burden for health systems planning in the USA.

The Association Of HIV With Health Care Spending And Use Among Medicare Beneficiaries

An increasingly older population of people with HIV raises concerns about how HIV may influence care for Medicare patients. We therefore sought to determine the extent to which HIV influences additional spending on and use of mental health and medical care among Medicare beneficiaries and, importantly, whether treatment with antiretroviral therapy may reduce this additional spending. Using 2016 Medicare claims, we compared risk-adjusted spending and utilization for Medicare beneficiaries with and without HIV, as well as subgroups of people receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). Compared to beneficiaries without HIV, those with HIV receiving ART incurred 220.6 percent more spending, mostly driven by ART spending, whereas those with HIV not receiving ART incurred 95.4 percent more spending. Among beneficiaries with HIV, those receiving more months of ART had lower spending on treatment for other chronic conditions relative to those receiving fewer months of ART in a dose-response manner. Beneficiaries with HIV not receiving ART incurred the highest spending related to infections, mental health disorders, and other medical conditions compared to beneficiaries in other HIV subgroups receiving ART for various numbers of months. Our findings suggest that ART may be associated with Medicare Parts A and B savings, but ART adherence and the high prices of HIV drugs in Part D need to be addressed.

Cost-Effectiveness of Long-Acting Injectable HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis in the United States : A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND

The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 083 trial demonstrated the superiority of long-acting injectable cabotegravir (CAB-LA) compared with oral emtricitabine-tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (F/TDF) for HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP).

OBJECTIVE

To identify the maximum price premium (that is, greatest possible price differential) that society should be willing to accept for the additional benefits of CAB-LA over tenofovir-based PrEP among men who have sex with men and transgender women (MSM/TGW) in the United States.

DESIGN

Simulation, cost-effectiveness analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Trial and published data, including estimated HIV incidence (5.32, 1.33, and 0.26 per 100 person-years for off PrEP, generic F/TDF and branded emtricitabine-tenofovir alafenamide (F/TAF), and CAB-LA, respectively); 28% 6-year PrEP retention. Annual base-case drug costs: $360 and $16 800 for generic F/TDF and branded F/TAF. Fewer side effects with branded F/TAF versus generic F/TDF were assumed.

TARGET POPULATION

476 700 MSM/TGW at very high risk for HIV (VHR).

TIME HORIZON

10 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Health care system.

INTERVENTION

CAB-LA versus generic F/TDF or branded F/TAF for HIV PrEP.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary transmissions, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs (2020 U.S. dollars), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs; U.S. dollars per QALY), maximum price premium for CAB-LA versus tenofovir-based PrEP.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Compared with generic F/TDF (or branded F/TAF), CAB-LA increased life expectancy by 28 000 QALYs (26 000 QALYs) among those at VHR. Branded F/TAF cost more per QALY gained than generic F/TDF compared with no PrEP. At 10 years, CAB-LA could achieve an ICER of at most $100 000 per QALY compared with generic F/TDF at a maximum price premium of $3700 per year over generic F/TDF (CAB-LA price <$4100 per year).

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

In a PrEP-eligible population at high risk for HIV, rather than at VHR (n = 1 906 800; off PrEP incidence: 1.54 per 100 person-years), CAB-LA could achieve an ICER of at most $100 000 per QALY versus generic F/TDF at a maximum price premium of $1100 per year over generic F/TDF (CAB-LA price <$1500 per year).

LIMITATION

Uncertain clinical and economic benefits of averting future transmissions.

CONCLUSION

Effective oral PrEP limits the additional price society should be willing to pay for CAB-LA.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

FHI 360; Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute on Drug Abuse; the Reich HIV Scholar Award; and the Steve and Deborah Gorlin MGH Research Scholars Award.

The Clinical and Economic Impact of Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccinations to Prevent Measles Importations From US Pediatric Travelers Returning From Abroad

BACKGROUND

Pediatric international travelers account for nearly half of measles importations in the United States. Over one third of pediatric international travelers depart the United States without the recommended measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccinations: 2 doses for travelers ≥12 months and 1 dose for travelers 6 to <12 months.

METHODS

We developed a model to compare 2 strategies among a simulated cohort of international travelers (6 months to <6 years): (1) No pretravel health encounter (PHE): travelers depart with baseline MMR vaccination status; (2) PHE: MMR-eligible travelers are offered vaccination. All pediatric travelers experience a destination-specific risk of measles exposure (mean, 30 exposures/million travelers). If exposed to measles, travelers' age and MMR vaccination status determine the risk of infection (range, 3%-90%). We included costs of medical care, contact tracing, and lost wages from the societal perspective. We varied inputs in sensitivity analyses. Model outcomes included projected measles cases, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ($/quality-adjusted life year [QALY], cost-effectiveness threshold ≤$100 000/QALY).

RESULTS

Compared with no PHE, PHE would avert 57 measles cases at $9.2 million/QALY among infant travelers and 7 measles cases at $15.0 million/QALY among preschool-aged travelers. Clinical benefits of PHE would be greatest for infants but cost-effective only for travelers to destinations with higher risk for measles exposure (ie, ≥160 exposures/million travelers) or if more US-acquired cases resulted from an infected traveler, such as in communities with limited MMR coverage.

CONCLUSIONS

Pretravel MMR vaccination provides the greatest clinical benefit for infant travelers and can be cost-effective before travel to destinations with high risk for measles exposure or from communities with low MMR vaccination coverage.

COVID-19 Vaccine Boosters for All Adults: An Optimal U.S. Approach?

In this commentary, the authors discuss the potential benefits and harms of boosters in response to a boosters-for-all policy for Americans, as well as provide 3 plausible alternative strategies.

Screening for Hepatitis B Virus Prior to Initiating Tocilizumab and Tofacitinib in Patients With Rheumatic Diseases: A Cross-sectional Study

OBJECTIVE

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) can reactivate among rheumatology patients initiating tocilizumab (TCZ) or tofacitinib (TOF). HBV screening is recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD), and the Canadian Rheumatology Association, but it is not explicitly recommended by the American College of Rheumatology.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study to characterize HBV screening practices for adult rheumatology patients initiating TCZ or TOF before December 31, 2018, in the Greater Boston area. We classified appropriate HBV screening patterns prior to TCZ or TOF (i.e., HBV surface antigen [HBsAg], total core antibody [anti-HBcAb], and surface antibody [HBsAb]) as follows: complete (all 3 tested), partial (any 1 or 2 tests), or none. We determined the frequency of inappropriate HBV testing (HBV e-antigen, anti-HBcAb IgM, or HBV DNA without a positive HBsAg or total anti-HBcAb) and used multivariable regression to assess factors associated with complete HBV screening.

RESULTS

Among 678 subjects initiating TCZ, 194 (29%) completed appropriate HBV screening, 307 (45%) had partial screening, and 177 (26%) had none. Among 391 subjects initiating TOF, 94 (24%) completed appropriate HBV screening, 195 (50%) had partial screening, and 102 (26%) had none. Inappropriate testing was performed in 22% of subjects. Race was associated with complete HBV screening (White vs non-White: OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57-0.95), whereas prior immunosuppression was not (conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs [DMARDs]: OR 1.05, 95% CI 0.72-1.55; biologic DMARDs: OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.48-1.12).

CONCLUSION

Patients initiating TCZ or TOF are infrequently screened for HBV despite recommendations from the AASLD and CDC.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Diagnostic Clinical Decision Support: A Pre-Post Implementation Study of CORAL (COvid Risk cALculator)

BACKGROUND

Isolation of hospitalized persons under investigation (PUIs) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) reduces nosocomial transmission risk. Efficient evaluation of PUIs is needed to preserve scarce healthcare resources. We describe the development, implementation, and outcomes of an inpatient diagnostic algorithm and clinical decision support system (CDSS) to evaluate PUIs.

METHODS

We conducted a pre-post study of CORAL (COvid Risk cALculator), a CDSS that guides frontline clinicians through a risk-stratified COVID-19 diagnostic workup, removes transmission-based precautions when workup is complete and negative, and triages complex cases to infectious diseases (ID) physician review. Before CORAL, ID physicians reviewed all PUI records to guide workup and precautions. After CORAL, frontline clinicians evaluated PUIs directly using CORAL. We compared pre- and post-CORAL frequency of repeated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs), time from NAAT result to PUI status discontinuation, total duration of PUI status, and ID physician work hours, using linear and logistic regression, adjusted for COVID-19 incidence.

RESULTS

Fewer PUIs underwent repeated testing after an initial negative NAAT after CORAL than before CORAL (54% vs 67%, respectively; adjusted odd ratio, 0.53 [95% confidence interval, .44-.63]; P < .01). CORAL significantly reduced average time to PUI status discontinuation (adjusted difference [standard error], -7.4 [0.8] hours per patient), total duration of PUI status (-19.5 [1.9] hours per patient), and average ID physician work-hours (-57.4 [2.0] hours per day) (all P < .01). No patients had a positive NAAT result within 7 days after discontinuation of precautions via CORAL.

CONCLUSIONS

CORAL is an efficient and effective CDSS to guide frontline clinicians through the diagnostic evaluation of PUIs and safe discontinuation of precautions.

738. Comparison of Characteristics of US International Travelers Seeking Pretravel Health Consultations at US Global TravEpiNet Sites Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Background

In January–March 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued multiple warnings regarding COVID-19 travel-associated risks. We sought to describe US travelers seeking pretravel consultation regarding international travel at US Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) sites before and after the initial COVID-19 travel warnings.

Methods

We prospectively collected data at 22 GTEN sites pre-COVID-19 (January–December 2019) and 18 GTEN sites during the COVID-19 pandemic (April 2020–March 2021). We excluded travelers evaluated during January–March 2020, when CDC travel guidance was evolving rapidly. Travelers used standardized questionnaires to self-report data regarding demographics and travel-related characteristics. Providers confirmed these data and documented their recommendations during pretravel consultation, which could be performed virtually. We conducted descriptive analyses of differences in demographics, travel-related characteristics, vaccinations, and medications (SAS v9.4; Cary, NC).

Results

Compared with 16,903 pre-COVID-19 consultations, only 1,564 consultations occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, a 90% reduction (Table). During COVID-19, a greater proportion of travelers were children aged 1–5 years, visiting friends and relatives (VFR), with itineraries ≥ 30 days, and going to Africa; a smaller proportion of travelers were aged > 55 years, or traveling to Southeast Asia or the Western Pacific. During COVID-19, fewer vaccine-eligible travelers received vaccines at the pretravel consultation except for yellow fever, and a greater proportion were referred to another provider for vaccination (Figure).

Table. Demographics and travel-related characteristics of international travelers seeking pretravel consultation at Global TravEpiNet sites before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Table continued. Demographics and travel-related characteristics of international travelers seeking pretravel consultation at Global TravEpiNet sites before and during the COVID-19 pandemic

Figure. Vaccinations and reasons for nonvaccination among vaccine-eligible international travelers at pretravel consultations at Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) sites before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Among vaccine-eligible travelers, we summarized those who were vaccinated at the visit (blue) and not vaccinated (orange). We then categorized reasons for nonvaccination into: provider decision (solid), referral to another provider (dots), traveler refusal (striped), or other (hatched). COVID-19 vaccination was not available at GTEN sites during the analysis period; although COVID-19 vaccinations outside of GTEN sites might have affected vaccination recommendations, they were unlikely to have had a large effect given their limited availability in January-March 2021.

Conclusion

Compared with pre-COVID-19, US travelers seeking pretravel consultations at GTEN sites during the pandemic might be at higher risk for travel-related infections given VFR status, traveling for ≥ 30 days, and going to Africa. Fewer vaccine-eligible travelers were vaccinated at pretravel consultations, which could reflect more virtual pretravel consultations. Counseling and vaccination for international travelers continue to be priorities during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Disclosures

All Authors: No reported disclosures

Clinical Impact, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Expanded Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Testing in Massachusetts

BACKGROUND

We projected the clinical and economic impact of alternative testing strategies on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence and mortality in Massachusetts using a microsimulation model.

METHODS

We compared 4 testing strategies: (1) hospitalized: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing only for patients with severe/critical symptoms warranting hospitalization; (2) symptomatic: PCR for any COVID-19-consistent symptoms, with self-isolation if positive; (3) symptomatic + asymptomatic once: symptomatic and 1-time PCR for the entire population; and (4) symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly: symptomatic with monthly retesting for the entire population. We examined effective reproduction numbers (Re = 0.9-2.0) at which policy conclusions would change. We assumed homogeneous mixing among the Massachusetts population (excluding those residing in long-term care facilities). We used published data on disease progression and mortality, transmission, PCR sensitivity/specificity (70%/100%), and costs. Model-projected outcomes included infections, deaths, tests performed, hospital-days, and costs over 180 days, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]).

RESULTS

At Re = 0.9, symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly vs hospitalized resulted in a 64% reduction in infections and a 46% reduction in deaths, but required >66-fold more tests/day with 5-fold higher costs. Symptomatic + asymptomatic monthly had an ICER <$100 000/QALY only when Re ≥1.6; when test cost was ≤$3, every 14-day testing was cost-effective at all Re examined.

CONCLUSIONS

Testing people with any COVID-19-consistent symptoms would be cost-saving compared to testing only those whose symptoms warrant hospital care. Expanding PCR testing to asymptomatic people would decrease infections, deaths, and hospitalizations. Despite modest sensitivity, low-cost, repeat screening of the entire population could be cost-effective in all epidemic settings.

Harm reduction for smokers living with HIV

Tobacco use is now a leading cause of death in people living with HIV in the USA. Increasing cessation rates in this group is a public health priority, yet the results of clinical trials aimed at optimising tobacco treatment strategies have been largely disappointing. Combinations of behavioural and pharmacological cessation therapies in people living with HIV have yielded increases in short-term quit rates, but few have shown long-term efficacy. Even with aggressive therapy combining intensive behavioural treatment with pharmacological agents, most smokers living with HIV continue to smoke. The generalised approach to tobacco treatment that prevails in guidelines and in clinical practices might do a disservice to these individuals, who represent a sizable segment of the population of people living with HIV. Harm reduction is a sensible and needed approach for smokers living with HIV who are unable or unwilling to quit. In this Viewpoint, we take an expansive view of harm reduction to include not only cutting down on cigarette intake for persistent smokers, but also reducing smoking's downstream health effects by increasing lung cancer screening and by controlling concurrent cardiovascular risk factors, especially hypertension and hyperlipidaemia.

Vaccine completion and infectious diseases screening in a cohort of adult refugees following resettlement in the U.S.: 2013-2015

BACKGROUND

Refugees are frequently not immune to vaccine-preventable infections. Adherence to consensus guidelines on vaccination and infectious diseases screening among refugees resettling in the U.S. is unknown. We sought to determine rates of vaccine completion and infectious diseases screening in refugees following resettlement.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of refugees resettling in a region in the U.S. using medical data from June 2013-April 2015. We determined the proportion of vaccine-eligible refugees vaccinated with measles-mumps-rubella (MMR), hepatitis A/B, tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap), and human papillomavirus (HPV) following resettlement. We also determined the proportion of refugees who completed HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) screening.

RESULTS

One hundred and eleven subjects were included, primarily from Iraq (53%), Afghanistan (19%), and Eritrea (11%). Of the 84 subjects who were vaccine-eligible, 78 (93%) initiated and 42 (50%) completed vaccinations within one year of resettlement. Odds of completing vaccination were higher for men (OR: 2.38; 95%CI:1.02-5.71) and for subjects with English proficiency (OR: 3.70; 95%CI:1.04-17.49). Of the 78 subjects (70%) completing HIV screening, two (3%) were diagnosed with HIV. Nearly all subjects completed screening for HCV, and one had active infection.

CONCLUSION

While most refugees initiate vaccinations, only 50% completed vaccinations and 70% completed HIV screening within 1 year of resettlement. There is a need to emphasize vaccine completion and HIV screening in refugee patients following resettlement.

Yield of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Lower Respiratory Tract Testing After a Negative Nasopharyngeal Test Among Hospitalized Persons Under Investigation for Coronavirus Disease 2019

Among hospitalized persons under investigation for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), more repeated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) after a negative NAAT were positive from lower than from upper respiratory tract specimens (1.9% vs 1.0%, P = .033). Lower respiratory testing should be prioritized among patients displaying respiratory symptoms with moderate-to-high suspicion for COVID-19 after 1 negative upper respiratory NAAT.

Mortality in relation to hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection status among HIV-HBV co-infected patients in sub-Saharan Africa after immediate initiation of antiretroviral therapy

It is unknown how past and active hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection affect immunorecovery and mortality in people with HIV who initiate tenofovir-based antiretroviral therapy (ART). Using data collected between 2008 and 2015, we studied people with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa initiating immediate ART in the Temprano randomized control trial. We classified participants into HBV groups at ART initiation: hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg)-positive with HBV DNA ≥ 2,000 IU/ml; HBsAg-positive with HBV DNA < 2,000 IU/ml; isolated HBcAb-positive; resolved infection (HBsAb-positive/HBcAb-positive); and HBV non-immune/vaccinated (HBcAb-negative). We compared square-root CD4-cell count increases using mixed-effect, non-linear regression adjusted for age, sex, baseline CD4 cell count, and HIV RNA. We compared all-cause mortality using Bayesian parametric survival regression. Among 879 participants, 24 (2.7%) had HBsAg with high HBV DNA, 76 (8.6%) HBsAg with low HBV DNA, 325 (37.0%) isolated anti-HBcAb, 226 (25.7%) resolved HBV infection and 228 (25.9%) HBV non-immune/vaccinated. We found no significant difference in CD4 cell increases between HBV-infection groups after adjustment (p = 0.16). Participants with HBsAg and high HBV DNA had the highest incidence of all-cause mortality (1.9/100 person-years, 95% Credibile Interval [CrI] = 1.0-3.4). By comparison, incidence rates of mortality were reduced by 57% (95%CrI = -79%, -13%), 60% (95%CrI = -82%, -12%) and 66% (95%CrI = -84%, -23%) in those who had isolated anti-HBcAb-positive, resolved HBV infection and HBV non-immune/vaccinated, respectively. In conclusion, individuals with HIV and past HBV infection or isolated anti-HBcAb-positive serology, much like HBV non-immune/vaccinated, experience lower mortality than those with HBsAg and high HBV DNA. Additional HBV-related management would not be necessary for these individuals.

College Campuses and COVID-19 Mitigation: Clinical and Economic Value

BACKGROUND

Colleges in the United States are determining how to operate safely amid the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

OBJECTIVE

To examine the clinical outcomes, cost, and cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on college campuses.

DESIGN

The Clinical and Economic Analysis of COVID-19 interventions (CEACOV) model, a dynamic microsimulation model, was used to examine alternative mitigation strategies. The CEACOV model tracks infections accrued by students and faculty, accounting for community transmissions.

DATA SOURCES

Data from published literature were used to obtain parameters related to COVID-19 and contact-hours.

TARGET POPULATION

Undergraduate students and faculty at U.S. colleges.

TIME HORIZON

One semester (105 days).

PERSPECTIVE

Modified societal.

INTERVENTION

COVID-19 mitigation strategies, including social distancing, masks, and routine laboratory screening.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Infections among students and faculty per 5000 students and per 1000 faculty, isolation days, tests, costs, cost per infection prevented, and cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY).

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Among students, mitigation strategies reduced COVID-19 cases from 3746 with no mitigation to 493 with extensive social distancing and masks, and further to 151 when laboratory testing was added among asymptomatic persons every 3 days. Among faculty, these values were 164, 28, and 25 cases, respectively. Costs ranged from about $0.4 million for minimal social distancing to about $0.9 million to $2.1 million for strategies involving laboratory testing ($10 per test), depending on testing frequency. Extensive social distancing with masks cost $170 per infection prevented ($49 200 per QALY) compared with masks alone. Adding routine laboratory testing increased cost per infection prevented to between $2010 and $17 210 (cost per QALY gained, $811 400 to $2 804 600).

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Results were most sensitive to test costs.

LIMITATION

Data are from multiple sources.

CONCLUSION

Extensive social distancing with a mandatory mask-wearing policy can prevent most COVID-19 cases on college campuses and is very cost-effective. Routine laboratory testing would prevent 96% of infections and require low-cost tests to be economically attractive.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health.

Outcomes from an infectious disease physician-guided evaluation of hospitalized persons under investigation for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at a large US academic medical center

We describe an approach to the evaluation and isolation of hospitalized persons under investigation (PUIs) for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) at a large US academic medical center. Only a small proportion (2.9%) of PUIs with 1 or more repeated severe acute respiratory coronavirus virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) after a negative NAAT were diagnosed with COVID-19.

Clinical Impact and Cost-effectiveness of Genotype Testing at Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis in the United States

BACKGROUND

US guidelines recommend genotype testing at human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis ("baseline genotype") to detect transmitted drug resistance (TDR) to nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs), nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs), and protease inhibitors. With integrase strand inhibitor (INSTI)-based regimens now recommended as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART), the of baseline genotypes is uncertain.

METHODS

We used the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model to examine the clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of baseline genotype compared to no baseline genotype for people starting ART with dolutegravir (DTG) and an NRTI pair. For people with no TDR (83.8%), baseline genotype does not alter regimen selection. Among people with transmitted NRTI resistance (5.8%), baseline genotype guides NRTI selection and informs subsequent ART after adverse events (DTG AEs, 14%). Among people with transmitted NNRTI resistance (7.2%), baseline genotype influences care only for people with DTG AEs switching to NNRTI-based regimens. The 48-week virologic suppression varied (40%-92%) depending on TDR. Costs included $320/genotype and $2500-$3000/month for ART.

RESULTS

Compared to no baseline genotype, baseline genotype resulted in <1 additional undiscounted quality-adjusted life-day (QALD), cost an additional $500/person, and was not cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: $420 000/quality-adjusted life-year). In univariate sensitivity analysis, clinical benefits of baseline genotype never exceeded 5 QALDs for all newly diagnosed people with HIV. Baseline genotype was cost-effective at current TDR prevalence only under unlikely conditions, eg, DTG-based regimens achieving ≤50% suppression of transmitted NRTI resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

With INSTI-based first-line regimens in the United States, baseline genotype offers minimal clinical benefit and is not cost-effective.

Clinical, Laboratory, and Radiologic Characteristics of Patients With Initial False-Negative Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Nucleic Acid Amplification Test Results

BACKGROUND

Concerns about false-negative (FN) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) have prompted recommendations for repeat testing if suspicion for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection is moderate to high. However, the frequency of FNs and patient characteristics associated with FNs are poorly understood.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed test results from 15 011 adults who underwent ≥1 SARS-CoV-2 NAATs; 2699 had an initial negative NAAT and repeat testing. We defined FNs as ≥1 negative NAATs followed by a positive NAAT within 14 days during the same episode of illness. We stratified subjects with FNs by duration of symptoms before the initial FN test (≤5 days versus >5 days) and examined their clinical, radiologic, and laboratory characteristics.

RESULTS

Sixty of 2699 subjects (2.2%) had a FN result during the study period. The weekly frequency of FNs among subjects with repeat testing peaked at 4.4%, coinciding with peak NAAT positivity (38%). Most subjects with FNs had symptoms (52 of 60; 87%) and chest radiography (19 of 32; 59%) consistent with COVID-19. Of the FN NAATs, 18 of 60 (30%) were performed early (ie, ≤1 day of symptom onset), and 18 of 60 (30%) were performed late (ie, >7 days after symptom onset) in disease. Among 17 subjects with 2 consecutive FNs on NP NAATs, 9 (53%) provided lower respiratory tract (LRT) specimens for testing, all of which were positive.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings support repeated NAATs among symptomatic patients, particularly during periods of higher COVID-19 incidence. The LRT testing should be prioritized to increase yield among patients with high clinical suspicion for COVID-19.

Racial and Ethnic Disparities in Disease Severity on Admission Chest Radiographs among Patients Admitted with Confirmed Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Background Disease severity on chest radiographs has been associated with higher risk of disease progression and adverse outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Few studies have evaluated COVID-19-related racial and/or ethnic disparities in radiology. Purpose To evaluate whether non-White minority patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 infection presented with increased severity on admission chest radiographs compared with White or non-Hispanic patients. Materials and Methods This single-institution retrospective cohort study was approved by the institutional review board. Patients hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19 infection between March 17, 2020, and April 10, 2020, were identified by using the electronic medical record (n = 326; mean age, 59 years ±17 [standard deviation]; male-to-female ratio: 188:138). The primary outcome was the severity of lung disease on admission chest radiographs, measured by using the modified Radiographic Assessment of Lung Edema (mRALE) score. The secondary outcome was a composite adverse clinical outcome of intubation, intensive care unit admission, or death. The primary exposure was the racial and/or ethnic category: White or non-Hispanic versus non-White (ie, Hispanic, Black, Asian, or other). Multivariable linear regression analyses were performed to evaluate the association between mRALE scores and race and/or ethnicity. Results Non-White patients had significantly higher mRALE scores (median score, 6.1; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.4, 6.7) compared with White or non-Hispanic patients (median score, 4.2; 95% CI: 3.6, 4.9) (unadjusted average difference, 1.8; 95% CI: 0.9, 2.8; P < .01). For both White (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.3; 95% CI: 1.2, 1.4; P < .001) and non-White (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.2; 95% CI: 1.1, 1.3; P < .001) patients, increasing mRALE scores were associated with a higher likelihood of experiencing composite adverse outcome with no evidence of interaction (P = .16). Multivariable linear regression analyses demonstrated that non-White patients presented with higher mRALE scores at admission chest radiography compared with White or non-Hispanic patients (adjusted average difference, 1.6; 95% CI: 0.5, 2.7; P < .01). Adjustment for hypothesized mediators revealed that the association between race and/or ethnicity and mRALE scores was mediated by limited English proficiency (P < .01). Conclusion Non-White patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 infection were more likely to have a higher severity of disease on admission chest radiographs than White or non-Hispanic patients, and increased severity was associated with worse outcomes for all patients. © RSNA, 2020 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for Adults Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

IMPORTANCE

Approximately 356 000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the United States. They have high risk of contracting coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

OBJECTIVE

To assess the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness associated with strategies for COVID-19 management among adults experiencing sheltered homelessness.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This decision analytic model used a simulated cohort of 2258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston, Massachusetts. Cohort characteristics and costs were adapted from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were taken from published literature and national databases. Surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [Re], 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9, respectively) were examined. Costs were from a health care sector perspective, and the time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020.

EXPOSURES

Daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of individuals with positive symptom screening results, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternative care sites (ACSs) for mild or moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing were each compared with no intervention.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case of COVID-19 prevented.

RESULTS

The simulated population of 2258 sheltered homeless adults had a mean (SD) age of 42.6 (9.04) years. Compared with no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild or moderate disease was associated with 37% fewer infections (1954 vs 1239) and 46% lower costs ($6.10 million vs $3.27 million) at an Re of 2.6, 75% fewer infections (538 vs 137) and 72% lower costs ($1.46 million vs $0.41 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 51% fewer infections (174 vs 85) and 51% lower costs ($0.54 million vs $0.26 million) at an Re of 0.9. Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with a further decrease in infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1000 at an Re of 2.6, $27 000 at an Re of 1.3, and $71 000 at an Re of 0.9. Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more expensive than other options. Compared with no intervention, temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was associated with 81% fewer infections (376) and 542% higher costs ($39.12 million) at an Re of 2.6, 82% fewer infections (95) and 2568% higher costs ($38.97 million) at an Re of 1.3, and 59% fewer infections (71) and 7114% higher costs ($38.94 million) at an Re of 0.9. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in SARS-CoV-2 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges.

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background

Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa.

Methods

We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number (R_e) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an R_e of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters (R_e values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections.

Findings

When R_e was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94%, increased health-care costs by 33%, and was cost-effective (ICER $340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When R_e was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which R_e was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced.

Interpretation

In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and would be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations.

Funding

US National Institutes of Health, Royal Society, Wellcome Trust.

Clinical Outcomes, Costs, and Cost-effectiveness of Strategies for People Experiencing Sheltered Homelessness During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance:

Approximately 356,000 people stay in homeless shelters nightly in the US. They are at high risk for COVID-19.

Objective:

To assess clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of strategies for COVID-19 management among sheltered homeless adults.

Design:

We developed a dynamic microsimulation model of COVID-19 in sheltered homeless adults in Boston, Massachusetts. We used cohort characteristics and costs from Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program. Disease progression, transmission, and outcomes data were from published literature and national databases. We examined surging, growing, and slowing epidemics (effective reproduction numbers [R_e] 2.6, 1.3, and 0.9). Costs were from a health care sector perspective; time horizon was 4 months, from April to August 2020.

Setting & Participants:

Simulated cohort of 2,258 adults residing in homeless shelters in Boston.

Interventions:

We assessed daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of screen-positives, universal PCR testing every 2 weeks, hospital-based COVID-19 care, alternate care sites [ACSs] for mild/moderate COVID-19, and temporary housing, each compared to no intervention.

Main Outcomes and Measures:

Cumulative infections and hospital-days, costs to the health care sector (US dollars), and cost-effectiveness, as incremental cost per case prevented of COVID-19.

Results:

We simulated a population of 2,258 sheltered homeless adults with mean age of 42.6 years. Compared to no intervention, daily symptom screening with ACSs for pending tests or confirmed COVID-19 and mild/moderate disease led to 37% fewer infections and 46% lower costs (R_e=2.6), 75% fewer infections and 72% lower costs (R_e=1.3), and 51% fewer infections and 51% lower costs (R_e=0.9). Adding PCR testing every 2 weeks further decreased infections; incremental cost per case prevented was $1,000 (R_e=2.6), $27,000 (R_e=1.3), and $71,000 (R_e=0.9). Temporary housing with PCR every 2 weeks was most effective but substantially more costly than other options. Results were sensitive to cost and sensitivity of PCR and ACS efficacy in preventing transmission.

Conclusions & Relevance:

In this modeling study of simulated adults living in homeless shelters, daily symptom screening and ACSs were associated with fewer COVID-19 infections and decreased costs compared with no intervention. In a modeled surging epidemic, adding universal PCR testing every 2 weeks was associated with further decrease in COVID-19 infections at modest incremental cost and should be considered during future surges.

Cost-effectiveness of public health strategies for COVID-19 epidemic control in South Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

Background

Healthcare resource constraints in low and middle-income countries necessitate selection of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19.

Methods

We developed a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to evaluate clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Interventions assessed were Healthcare Testing (HT), where diagnostic testing is performed only for those presenting to healthcare centres; Contact Tracing (CT) in households of cases; Isolation Centres (IC), for cases not requiring hospitalisation; community health worker-led Mass Symptom Screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals (MS); and Quarantine Centres (QC), for household contacts who test negative. Given uncertainties about epidemic dynamics in South Africa, we evaluated two main epidemic scenarios over 360 days, with effective reproduction numbers (R_e) of 1·5 and 1·2. We compared HT, HT+CT, HT+CT+IC, HT+CT+IC+MS, HT+CT+IC+QC, and HT+CT+IC+MS+QC, considering strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) <US$3,250/year-of-life saved (YLS) cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, we varied R_e, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions.

Findings

With R_e 1·5, HT resulted in the most COVID-19 deaths over 360 days. Compared with HT, HT+CT+IC+MS+QC reduced mortality by 94%, increased costs by 33%, and was cost-effective (ICER $340/YLS). In settings where quarantine centres cannot be implemented, HT+CT+IC+MS was cost-effective compared with HT (ICER $590/YLS). With R_e 1·2, HT+CT+IC+QC was the least costly strategy, and no other strategy was cost-effective. HT+CT+IC+MS+QC was cost-effective in many sensitivity analyses; notable exceptions were when R_e was 2·6 and when efficacies of ICs and QCs for transmission reduction were reduced.

Interpretation

In South Africa, strategies involving household contact tracing, isolation, mass symptom screening, and quarantining household contacts who test negative would substantially reduce COVID-19 mortality and be cost-effective. The optimal combination of interventions depends on epidemic growth characteristics and practical implementation considerations.

College campuses and COVID-19 mitigation: clinical and economic value

BACKGROUND

Decisions around US college and university operations will affect millions of students and faculty amidst the COVID-19 pandemic. We examined the clinical and economic value of different COVID-19 mitigation strategies on college campuses.

METHODS

We used the Clinical and Economic Analysis of COVID-19 interventions (CEACOV) model, a dynamic microsimulation that tracks infections accrued by students and faculty, accounting for community transmissions. Outcomes include infections, $/infection-prevented, and $/quality-adjusted-life-year ($/QALY). Strategies included extensive social distancing (ESD), masks, and routine laboratory tests (RLT). We report results per 5,000 students (1,000 faculty) over one semester (105 days).

RESULTS

Mitigation strategies reduced COVID-19 cases among students (faculty) from 3,746 (164) with no mitigation to 493 (28) with ESD and masks, and further to 151 (25) adding RLTq3 among asymptomatic students and faculty. ESD with masks cost $168/infection-prevented ($49,200/QALY) compared to masks alone. Adding RLTq3 ($10/test) cost $8,300/infection-prevented ($2,804,600/QALY). If tests cost $1, RLTq3 led to a favorable cost of $275/infection-prevented ($52,200/QALY). No strategies without masks were cost-effective.

CONCLUSION

Extensive social distancing with mandatory mask-wearing could prevent 87% of COVID-19 cases on college campuses and be very cost-effective. Routine laboratory testing would prevent 96% of infections and require low cost tests to be economically attractive.

Prescribing Patterns of Antibiotics for the Self-Treatment of Travelers' Diarrhea in Global TravEpiNet, 2009-2018

Background

International travelers are often prescribed antibiotics for self-treatment of travelers' diarrhea (TD), but the benefits and risks of antibiotics are debated. We assessed the prescribing patterns of empiric antibiotics for TD in international travelers evaluated at Global TravEpiNet (GTEN) sites (2009-2018).

Methods

We performed a prospective, multisite cross-sectional study regarding antibiotic prescriptions for the self-treatment of TD at 31 GTEN sites providing pretravel consultations to adult international travelers. We described traveler demographics, itineraries, and antibiotic(s) prescribed. We used multivariable logistic regressions to assess the association of year of consultation with antibiotic prescribing (yes/no) and class (fluoroquinolones vs azithromycin). We performed interrupted time-series analyses to examine differences in prescribing before and after the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) warning on fluoroquinolones (July 2016).

Results

Antibiotics were not prescribed in 23 096 (22.2%) of 103 843 eligible pretravel GTEN consultations; azithromycin and fluoroquinolones were most frequently prescribed. Antibiotic prescribing declined significantly each year between 2009 and 2018 (odds ratio [OR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.79-0.89), as did fluoroquinolone prescribing, relative to azithromycin (OR, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.73-0.82). The rate of decline in fluoroquinolone prescribing was significantly greater after the FDA fluoroquinolone warning (15.3%/year) than before (1.1%/year; P < .001).

Conclusions

Empiric antibiotics for TD were prescribed in >75% of pretravel GTEN consultations, but antibiotic prescribing declined steadily between 2009 and 2018. Fluoroquinolones were less frequently prescribed than azithromycin, especially after the 2016 FDA fluoroquinolone warning. Emphasis on the risks of antibiotics may influence antibiotic prescribing by providers for empiric treatment of TD.