Clinical prediction model to aid emergency doctors managing febrile children at risk of serious bacterial infections: diagnostic study

Prospective multicenter evaluation of adherence to the Dutch guideline for children aged 0-16 years with fever without a source-febrile illness in children (FINCH) study

Evaluation of guidelines in actual practice is a crucial step in guideline improvement. A retrospective evaluation of the Dutch guideline for children with fever without an apparent source (FWS) showed 50% adherence in young infants. We prospectively evaluated adherence to the Dutch guideline and its impact on management in current practice. Prospective observational multicenter cross-sectional study, including children 3 days to 16 years old presented for FWS at one of seven emergency departments in participating secondary and tertiary care hospitals in the Netherlands. Adherence to the Dutch FWS guideline, adapted from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline, was evaluated, and patterns in non-adherence and the impact of non-adherence on clinical outcomes and resource use were explored. Adherence to the guideline was 192/370 (52%). Adherence was lowest in patients categorized as high risk for severe infection (72/187, 39%), compared to the low-risk group (64/73, 88%). Differences in adherence were significant between risk categories (P < 0.001) but not between age categories. In case of non-adherence, less urinalysis, fewer bacterial cultures (blood, urine, and cerebral spinal fluid), and less empirical antibiotic treatment were performed (P < 0.050). Clinical outcomes were not significantly different between the non-adherence and the adherence group, particularly regarding missed severe infections.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a high non-adherence rate of 48%, which did not lead to unfavorable clinical outcomes. This substantiates the need for a critical reevaluation of the FWS guideline and its indications for bacterial cultures, viral testing, and antibiotic treatment.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Despite the development of national guidelines, variation in practice is still substantial in the assessment of febrile children to distinguish severe infection from mild self-limiting disease. • Previous retrospective research suggests low adherence to national guidelines for febrile children in practice.

WHAT IS NEW

• In case of non-adherence to the Dutch national guideline, similar to the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guideline from the United Kingdom, physicians have used fewer resources than the guideline recommended without increasing missed severe infections.

Adoption of C-reactive protein rapid tests for the management of acute childhood infections in hospitals in the Netherlands and England: a comparative health systems analysis

BACKGROUND

The adoption of C-reactive protein point-of-care tests (CRP POCTs) in hospitals varies across Europe. We aimed to understand the factors that contribute to different levels of adoption of CRP POCTs for the management of acute childhood infections in two countries.

METHODS

Comparative qualitative analysis of the implementation of CRP POCTs in the Netherlands and England. The study was informed by the non-adoption, abandonment, spread, scale-up, and sustainability (NASSS) framework. Data were collected through document analysis and qualitative interviews with stakeholders. Documents were identified by a scoping literature review, search of websites, and through the stakeholders. Stakeholders were sampled purposively initially, and then by snowballing. Data were analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Forty-one documents resulted from the search and 46 interviews were conducted. Most hospital healthcare workers in the Netherlands were familiar with CRP POCTs as the tests were widely used and trusted in primary care. Moreover, although diagnostics were funded through similar Diagnosis Related Group reimbursement mechanisms in both countries, the actual funding for each hospital was more constrained in England. Compared to primary care, laboratory-based CRP tests were usually available in hospitals and their use was encouraged in both countries because they were cheaper. However, CRP POCTs were perceived as useful in some hospitals of the two countries in which the laboratory could not provide CRP measures 24/7 or within a short timeframe, and/or in emergency departments where expediting patient care was important.

CONCLUSIONS

CRP POCTs are more available in hospitals in the Netherlands because of the greater familiarity of Dutch healthcare workers with the tests which are widely used in primary care in their country and because there are more funding constraints in England. However, most hospitals in the Netherlands and England have not adopted CRP POCTs because the alternative CRP measurements from the hospital laboratory are available in a few hours and at a lower cost.

External validation of a multivariable prediction model for identification of pneumonia and other serious bacterial infections in febrile immunocompromised children

OBJECTIVE

To externally validate and update the Feverkids tool clinical prediction model for differentiating bacterial pneumonia and other serious bacterial infections (SBIs) from non-SBI causes of fever in immunocompromised children.

DESIGN

International, multicentre, prospective observational study embedded in PErsonalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management across the European Union (PERFORM).

SETTING

Fifteen teaching hospitals in nine European countries.

PARTICIPANTS

Febrile immunocompromised children aged 0-18 years.

METHODS

The Feverkids clinical prediction model predicted the probability of bacterial pneumonia, other SBI or no SBI. Model discrimination, calibration and diagnostic performance at different risk thresholds were assessed. The model was then re-fitted and updated.

RESULTS

Of 558 episodes, 21 had bacterial pneumonia, 104 other SBI and 433 no SBI. Discrimination was 0.83 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.90) for bacterial pneumonia, with moderate calibration and 0.67 (0.61 to 0.72) for other SBIs, with poor calibration. After model re-fitting, discrimination improved to 0.88 (0.79 to 0.96) and 0.71 (0.65 to 0.76) and calibration improved. Predicted risk <1% ruled out bacterial pneumonia with sensitivity 0.95 (0.86 to 1.00) and negative likelihood ratio (LR) 0.09 (0.00 to 0.32). Predicted risk >10% ruled in bacterial pneumonia with specificity 0.91 (0.88 to 0.94) and positive LR 6.51 (3.71 to 10.3). Predicted risk <10% ruled out other SBIs with sensitivity 0.92 (0.87 to 0.97) and negative LR 0.32 (0.13 to 0.57). Predicted risk >30% ruled in other SBIs with specificity 0.89 (0.86 to 0.92) and positive LR 2.86 (1.91 to 4.25).

CONCLUSION

Discrimination and calibration were good for bacterial pneumonia but poorer for other SBIs. The rule-out thresholds have the potential to reduce unnecessary investigations and antibiotics in this high-risk group.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for detecting coronary heart disease in middle-aged and elderly people: a diagnostic study

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a multivariate prediction model to estimate the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in middle-aged and elderly people and to provide a feasible method for early screening and diagnosis in middle-aged and elderly CHD patients.

METHODS

This study was a single-center, retrospective, case-control study. Admission data of 932 consecutive patients with suspected CHD were retrospectively assessed from September 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021 in the Department of Integrative Cardiology at China-Japan Friendship Hospital. A total of 839 eligible patients were included in this study, and 588 patients were assigned to the derivation set and 251 as the validation set at a 7:3 ratio. Clinical characteristics of included patients were compared between derivation set and validation set by univariate analysis. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) regression analysis method was performed to avoid collinearity and identify key potential predictors. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to construct a clinical prediction model with identified predictors for clinical practice. Bootstrap validation was used to test performance and eventually we obtained the actual model. And the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was carried out to evaluate the goodness-fit of the constructed model. The area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC) were plotted and utilized with validation set to comprehensively evaluate the predictive accuracy and clinical value of the model.

RESULTS

A total of eight indicators were identified as risk factors for the development of CHD in middle-aged and elderly people by univariate analysis. Of these candidate predictors, four key parameters were defined to be significantly related to CHD by Lasso regression analysis, including age (OR 1.034, 95% CI 1.002 ~ 1.067, P = 0.040), hemoglobin A1c (OR 1.380, 95% CI 1.078 ~ 1.768, P = 0.011), ankle-brachial index (OR 0.078, 95% CI 0.012 ~ 0.522, P = 0.009), and brachial artery flow-mediated vasodilatation (OR 0.848, 95% CI 0.726 ~ 0.990, P = 0.037). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed a good calibration performance of the clinical prediction model (derivation set, χ2 = 7.865, P = 0.447; validation set, χ2 = 11.132, P = 0.194). The ROCs of the nomogram in the derivation set and validation set were 0.722 and 0.783, respectively, suggesting excellent predictive power and suitable performance. The clinical prediction model presented a greater net benefit and clinical impact based on DCA and CIC analysis.

CONCLUSION

Overall, the development and validation of the multivariate model combined the laboratory and clinical parameters of patients with CHD, which could be beneficial to the individualized prediction of middle-aged and elderly people, and helped to facilitate clinical assessments and decisions during treatment and management of CHD.

Relationship between molecular pathogen detection and clinical disease in febrile children across Europe: a multicentre, prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

The PERFORM study aimed to understand causes of febrile childhood illness by comparing molecular pathogen detection with current clinical practice.

METHODS

Febrile children and controls were recruited on presentation to hospital in 9 European countries 2016-2020. Each child was assigned a standardized diagnostic category based on retrospective review of local clinical and microbiological data. Subsequently, centralised molecular tests (CMTs) for 19 respiratory and 27 blood pathogens were performed.

FINDINGS

Of 4611 febrile children, 643 (14%) were classified as definite bacterial infection (DB), 491 (11%) as definite viral infection (DV), and 3477 (75%) had uncertain aetiology. 1061 controls without infection were recruited. CMTs detected blood bacteria more frequently in DB than DV cases for N. meningitidis (OR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.92-5.99), S. pneumoniae (OR: 3.89, 95% CI: 2.07-7.59), Group A streptococcus (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.13-6.09) and E. coli (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.02-6.71). Respiratory viruses were more common in febrile children than controls, but only influenza A (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11-0.46), influenza B (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02-0.37) and RSV (OR 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06-0.36) were less common in DB than DV cases. Of 16 blood viruses, enterovirus (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23-0.72) and EBV (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56-0.90) were detected less often in DB than DV cases. Combined local diagnostics and CMTs respectively detected blood viruses and respiratory viruses in 360 (56%) and 161 (25%) of DB cases, and virus detection ruled-out bacterial infection poorly, with predictive values of 0.64 and 0.68 respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Most febrile children cannot be conclusively defined as having bacterial or viral infection when molecular tests supplement conventional approaches. Viruses are detected in most patients with bacterial infections, and the clinical value of individual pathogen detection in determining treatment is low. New approaches are needed to help determine which febrile children require antibiotics.

FUNDING

EU Horizon 2020 grant 668303.

Antibiotic Use for Febrile Children in a Tertiary Care Hospital's Outpatient Department: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background Irrational prescription of antibiotics is contributing to the antimicrobial resistance crisis in low and middle-income countries. Antibiotic stewardship programs need to be implemented to rationalize the use of antibiotics, but data on antibiotic prescriptions in pediatric outpatient departments is minimal. This study aimed to determine the frequency of antibiotic prescriptions in febrile children attending the Paediatric Outpatient Department (OPD) at Combined Military Hospital, Lahore, and observe the factors affecting the decision to prescribe antibiotics. Methodology A cross-sectional, descriptive study with non-probability sampling in the Department of Paediatrics at the Combined Military Hospital (CMH), Lahore, was conducted over two years. The confidence limit was 95%, and the anticipated population proportion was 32%. The primary outcome was the proportion of children aged two months to 10 years presenting to the OPD with fever who received antibiotics. Further analysis included the effect of patient-level risk factors on antibiotic prescription, especially in children with respiratory tract infections (RTIs). Results Of the 225 children analyzed, 137 (61%) received antibiotics. Of these antibiotic prescriptions, 123 (90%) were second-line antibiotics. Older age (odds ratio (OR) = 2.3, 1.18-4.46), high fever (OR = 2.48, 1.37-4.5), presenting in autumn and winter seasons (OR = 2.85, 1.53-5.3), ill appearance (OR = 2.71, 1.12-6.55), tachycardia (OR = 4.28, 1.22-15.01), and tachypnea (OR = 4.01, 1.14-14.12) were associated with increased likelihood of antibiotic prescription. Antibiotic prescriptions in children with RTIs were associated with lower RTI (OR = 12.96, 3.49-48.08), probable bacterial infection (OR = 12.37, 4.77-30.05), tachycardia (OR = 10.88, 1.28-92.24), tachypnea (OR = 14.73, 3.14-68.99), and increased work of breathing (OR = 7.8, 2.05-29.56). Conclusions The evidence of the widespread inappropriate use of antibiotics in OPDs, particularly for upper RTIs, highlights the need for an antibiotic stewardship program. Antibiotic overprescription promotes antibiotic resistance, prolonging illness and increasing healthcare costs.

Are children with prolonged fever at a higher risk for serious illness? A prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To describe the characteristics and clinical outcomes of children with fever ≥5 days presenting to emergency departments (EDs).

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

12 European EDs.

PATIENTS

Consecutive febrile children <18 years between January 2017 and April 2018.

INTERVENTIONS

Children with fever ≥5 days and their risks for serious bacterial infection (SBI) were compared with children with fever <5 days, including diagnostic accuracy of non-specific symptoms, warning signs and C-reactive protein (CRP; mg/L).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

SBI and other non-infectious serious illness.

RESULTS

3778/35 705 (10.6%) of febrile children had fever ≥5 days. Incidence of SBI in children with fever ≥5 days was higher than in those with fever <5 days (8.4% vs 5.7%). Triage urgency, life-saving interventions and intensive care admissions were similar for fever ≥5 days and <5 days. Several warning signs had good rule in value for SBI with specificities >0.90, but were observed infrequently (range: 0.4%-17%). Absence of warning signs was not sufficiently reliable to rule out SBI (sensitivity 0.92 (95% CI 0.87-0.95), negative likelihood ratio (LR) 0.34 (0.22-0.54)). CRP <20 mg/L was useful for ruling out SBI (negative LR 0.16 (0.11-0.24)). There were 66 cases (1.7%) of non-infectious serious illnesses, including 21 cases of Kawasaki disease (0.6%), 28 inflammatory conditions (0.7%) and 4 malignancies.

CONCLUSION

Children with prolonged fever have a higher risk of SBI, warranting a careful clinical assessment and diagnostic workup. Warning signs of SBI occurred infrequently but, if present, increased the likelihood of SBI. Although rare, clinicians should consider important non-infectious causes of prolonged fever.

A simple clinical decision rule may help to rule out severe bacterial infection and spare antibiotics in febrile young children

AIM

To assess the performance of a new clinical decision rule (CDR) to identify patients at a low risk of invasive bacterial infection (IBI) among febrile children and its theoretical impact on antibiotic use.

METHODS

Prospective study including consecutive children <5 years of age who presented in one French paediatric emergency department with fever without source between January and December 2016. With the collected data, we constructed a CDR based on a sequential approach based on age, clinical toxic signs, urinalysis and procalcitonin level. We evaluated its diagnostic performances to identify IBI and its potential impact on antibiotic use.

RESULTS

Among the 1061 children (IBI 11/1061, 1.0%), 693 (65.3%) were classified at low or intermediate risk of IBI, with an IBI prevalence of 0%. The sensitivity and specificity of the CDR to predict IBI were 100% and 73.9%. Negative and positive predictive value were 100% and 3.9%, respectively. Using this new CDR, the current antibiotics exposure would theoretically be reduced from 33.6% to 24.1%.

CONCLUSION

The promising interest of this clinical decision rule, using simple and accessible biological and clinical tools, needs to be confirm with an external validation study, which will allow its use in clinical practice.

Heart rate and respiratory rate in predicting risk of serious bacterial infection in febrile children given antipyretics: prospective observational study

Clinical algorithms used in the assessment of febrile children in the Paediatric Emergency Departments are commonly based on threshold values for vital signs, which in children with fever are often outside the normal range. Our aim was to assess the diagnostic value of heart and respiratory rate for serious bacterial infection (SBI) in children after temperature lowering following administration of antipyretics. A prospective cohort of children presenting with fever between June 2014 and March 2015 at the Paediatric Emergency Department of a large teaching hospital in London, UK, was performed. Seven hundred forty children aged 1 month-16 years presenting with a fever and ≥ 1 warning signs of SBI given antipyretics were included. Tachycardia or tachypnoea were defined by different threshold values: (a) APLS threshold values, (b) age-specific and temperature-adjusted centiles charts and (c) relative difference in z-score. SBI was defined by a composite reference standard (cultures from a sterile site, microbiology and virology results, radiological abnormalities, expert panel). Persistent tachypnoea after body temperature lowering was an important predictor of SBI (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.15, 3.30). This effect was only observed for pneumonia but not other SBIs. Threshold values for tachypnoea > 97th centile at repeat measurement achieved high specificity (0.95 (0.93, 0.96)) and positive likelihood ratios (LR + 3.25 (1.73, 6.11)) and may be useful for ruling in SBI, specifically pneumonia. Persistent tachycardia was not an independent predictor of SBI and had limited value as a diagnostic test.  Conclusion: Among children given antipyretics, tachypnoea at repeat measurement had some value in predicting SBI and was useful to rule in pneumonia. The diagnostic value of tachycardia was poor. Overreliance on heart rate as a diagnostic feature following body temperature lowering may not be justified to facilitate safe discharge. What is Known: • Abnormal vital signs at triage have limited value as a diagnostic test to identify children with SBI, and fever alters the specificity of commonly used threshold values for vital signs. • The observed temperature response after antipyretics is not a clinically useful indicator to differentiate the cause of febrile illness. What is New: • Persistent tachycardia following reduction in body temperature was not associated with an increased risk of SBI and of poor value as a diagnostic test, whilst persistent tachypnoea may indicate the presence of pneumonia.

Incorporation of biomarkers into a prediction model for paediatric radiographic pneumonia

Objective

The aim of this study was to evaluate biomarkers to predict radiographic pneumonia among children with suspected lower respiratory tract infections (LRTI).

Methods

We performed a single-centre prospective cohort study of children 3 months to 18 years evaluated in the emergency department with signs and symptoms of LRTI. We evaluated the incorporation of four biomarkers (white blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin), in isolation and in combination, with a previously developed clinical model (which included focal decreased breath sounds, age and fever duration) for an outcome of radiographic pneumonia using multivariable logistic regression. We evaluated the improvement in performance of each model with the concordance (c-) index.

Results

Of 580 included children, 213 (36.7%) had radiographic pneumonia. In multivariable analysis, all biomarkers were statistically associated with radiographic pneumonia, with CRP having the greatest adjusted odds ratio of 1.79 (95% CI 1.47-2.18). As an isolated predictor, CRP at a cut-off of 3.72 mg·dL^-1 demonstrated a sensitivity of 60% and a specificity of 75%. The model incorporating CRP demonstrated improved sensitivity (70.0% versus 57.7%) and similar specificity (85.3% versus 88.3%) compared to the clinical model when using a statistically derived cutpoint. In addition, the multivariable CRP model demonstrated the greatest improvement in concordance index (0.780 to 0.812) compared with a model including only clinical variables.

Conclusion

A model consisting of three clinical variables and CRP demonstrated improved performance for the identification of paediatric radiographic pneumonia compared with a model with clinical variables alone.

Adoption of C-reactive protein point-of-care tests for the management of acute childhood infections in primary care in the Netherlands and England: a comparative health systems analysis

BACKGROUND

The use of point of care (POC) tests varies across Europe, but research into what drives this variability is lacking. Focusing on CRP POC tests, we aimed to understand what factors contribute to high versus low adoption of the tests, and also to explore whether they are used in children.

METHODS

We used a comparative qualitative case study approach to explore the implementation of CRP POC tests in the Netherlands and England. These countries were selected because although they have similar primary healthcare systems, the availability of CRP POC tests in General Practices is very different, being very high in the former and rare in the latter. The study design and analysis were informed by the non-adoption, abandonment, spread, scale-up and sustainability (NASSS) framework. Data were collected through a review of documents and interviews with stakeholders. Documents were identified through a scoping literature review, search of websites, and stakeholder recommendation. Stakeholders were selected purposively initially, and then by snowballing. Data were analysed thematically.

RESULTS

Sixty-five documents were reviewed and 21 interviews were conducted. The difference in the availability of CRP POC tests is mainly because of differences at the wider national context level. In the two countries, early adopters of the tests advocated for their implementation through the generation of robust evidence and by engaging with all relevant stakeholders. This led to the inclusion of CRP POC tests in clinical guidelines in both countries. In the Netherlands, this mandated their reimbursement in accordance with Dutch regulations. Moreover, the prevailing better integration of health services enabled operational support from laboratories to GP practices. In England, the funding constraints of the National Health Service and the prioritization of alternative and less expensive antimicrobial stewardship interventions prevented the development of a reimbursement scheme. In addition, the lack of integration between health services limits the operational support to GP practices. In both countries, the availability of CRP POC tests for the management of children is a by-product of the test being available for adults. The tests are less used in children mainly because of concerns regarding their accuracy in this age-group.

CONCLUSIONS

The engagement of early adopters combined with a more favourable and receptive macro level environment, including the role of clinical guidelines and their developers in determining which interventions are reimbursed and the operational support from laboratories to GP practices, led to the greater adoption of the tests in the Netherlands. In both countries, CRP POC tests, when available, are less used less in children. Organisations considering introducing POC tests into primary care settings need to consider how their implementation fits into the wider health system context to ensure achievable plans.

Availability and use of rapid diagnostic tests for the management of acute childhood infections in Europe: A cross-sectional survey of paediatricians

BACKGROUND

Point-of-care-tests (POCTs) have been advocated to optimise care in patients with infections but their actual use varies. This study aimed to estimate the variability in the adoption of current POCTs by paediatricians across Europe, and to explore the determinants of variability.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

A cross-sectional survey was conducted of hospital and primary care paediatricians, recruited through professional networks. Questions focused on the availability and use of currently available POCTs. Data were analysed descriptively and using Median Odds Ratio (MOR) to measure variation between countries. Multilevel regression modelling using changes in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of models were used to assess the contribution of individual or workplace versus country level factors, to the observed variation. The commonest POCT was urine dipsticks (UD) which were available to >80% of primary care and hospital paediatricians in 68% (13/19) and 79% (23/29) countries, respectively. Availability of all POCTs varied between countries. In primary care, the country (MOR) varied from 1.61 (95%CI: 1.04-2.58) for lactate to 7.28 (95%CI: 3.04-24.35) for UD. In hospitals, the country MOR varied from 1.37 (95%CI:1.04-1.80) for lactate to 11.93 (95%CI:3.35-72.23) for UD. Most paediatricians in primary care (69%, 795/1154) and hospital (81%, 962/1188) would use a diagnostic test in the case scenario of an infant with undifferentiated fever. Multilevel regression modelling showed that the country of work was more important in predicting both the availability and use of POCTs than individual or workplace characteristics.

CONCLUSION

There is substantial variability in the adoption of POCTs for the management of acute infections in children across Europe. To inform future implementation of both existing and innovative tests, further research is needed to understand what drives the variation between countries, the needs of frontline clinicians, and the role of diagnostic tests in the management of acute childhood infections.

Paediatric fever management practices and antipyretic use among doctors and nurses in New Zealand emergency departments

OBJECTIVES

To assess (i) paediatric fever management practices among New Zealand ED doctors and nurses, including adherence to best practice guidelines; and (ii) the acceptability of a randomised controlled trial (RCT) of antipyretics for relief of discomfort in young children.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey of doctors and nurses across 11 New Zealand EDs. The primary outcome of adherence to paediatric fever management best practice guidelines was assessed with clinical vignettes and defined as single antipyretic use for the relief of fever-related discomfort.

RESULTS

Out of 602 participants (243 doctors, 353 nurses and six unknown; response rate 47.5%), only 64 (10.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 8.3-13.4%) demonstrated adherence to best practice guidelines. In a febrile settled child with normal fluid intake, the percentage of participants that would use antipyretics doubled with abnormal vital signs (33.7% vs 72.9%, difference -39.2%, 95% CI -44.4% to -34.0%). Most participants would use antipyretics for reduced fluid intake (n = 494, 82.1%, 95% CI 78.8-85.0%) in a febrile settled child. Over half (n = 339, 57.1%, 95% CI 53.0-61.1%) would advise giving antipyretics to prevent febrile convulsions. Most (n = 467, 80.0%, 95% CI 76.5-83.1%) participants agreed that a RCT of antipyretics in febrile children <2 years of age with relief of discomfort as a primary outcome is needed.

CONCLUSIONS

Just over 10% of New Zealand ED doctors and nurses demonstrated adherence to paediatric fever management best practice guidelines. A RCT of antipyretics in febrile children <2 years of age specifically addressing relief of discomfort as a primary outcome is strongly supported.

Pulse oximetry respiratory monitoring for assessment of acute childhood wheeze

OBJECTIVE

There is a lack of objective measures to assess children with acute wheezing episodes. Increased respiratory rate (RR) and pulsus paradoxus (PP) are recognised markers, but poorly recorded in practice. We examined whether they can be reliably assessed from a pulse oximeter plethysmogram ('pleth') trace and predict clinical outcome.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We studied 44 children aged 1-7 years attending hospital with acute wheeze, following initial 'burst' bronchodilator therapy (BT), and used custom software to measure RR and assess PP from oximeter pleth traces. Traces were examined for quality, and the accuracy of the RR measurement was validated against simultaneous respiratory inductive plethysmography (RIP). RR and PP at 1 hour after BT were compared with clinical outcomes.

RESULTS

RR from pleth and RIP showed excellent agreement, with a mean difference (RIP minus pleth) of -0.5 breaths per minute (limits of agreement -3.4 to +2.3). 52% of 1 min epochs contained 10 s or more of pleth artefact. At 1 hour after BT, children who subsequently required intravenous bronchodilators had significantly higher RR (median (IQR) 63 (62-66) vs 43 (37-51) breaths per minute) than those who did not, but their heart rate and oxygen saturation were similar. Children with RR ≥55 per minute spent longer in hospital: median (IQR) 30 (22-45) vs 10 (7-21) hours. All children who subsequently required hospital admission had PP-analogous pleth waveforms 1 hour after BT.

CONCLUSION

RR can be reliably measured and PP detected from the pulse oximeter pleth trace in children with acute wheeze and both markers predict clinical outcome.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

UKCRN15742.

Potential and promising marker for serious bacterial infections in children: Delta neutrophil index

AIM

This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness and accuracy of the delta neutrophil index (DNI), an index expressing the number of immature granulocytes as a proportion of the total, as an inflammatory marker in predicting serious bacterial infections (SBIs).

METHODS

Paediatric patients admitted to our hospital with fever were divided into four groups: SBI, non-SBI, COVID-19 and control group. White blood cell count, absolute neutrophil count, C-reactive protein and the DNI were recorded, and their accuracy in predicting SBI was evaluated.

RESULTS

Mean DNI was 4.96 ± 8.38 in the SBI group (150 patients), 0.67 ± 1.68 in the non-SBI group (397 patients), 0.29 ± 0.99 in the COVID-19 group (112 patients) and 0.14 ± 0.21 in the control group (102 patients). The DNI was significantly higher in the SBI group compared with the non-SBI (P < 0.001); the non-SBI group also had higher levels than the COVID-19 group (P = 0.005). One percent increase in the DNI increased the SBI rate 1.36 times (odds ratio 1.36 (95% confidence interval 1.23-1.49), P < 0.001). Based on the determined cut-off value (>2.5%), the DNI (odds ratio 6.27 (95% confidence interval 3.85-10.21), P < 0.001) significantly predicted SBIs with 90.4% specificity and 47.7% sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

SBIs in childrenare associated with an increase in DNI levels. Compared to other biomarkers, the DNI had higher specificity in predicting SBIs. The DNI may also be usefulin differentiating bacterial and non-bacterial infections in individualclinical syndromes. Currently, there is no evidence that serum DNI aids indifferentiating COVID-19 and upper respiratory tract infection.

Validation of Prediction Models for Pneumonia Among Children in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Several prediction models have been reported to identify patients with radiographic pneumonia, but none have been validated or broadly implemented into practice. We evaluated 5 prediction models for radiographic pneumonia in children.

METHODS

We evaluated 5 previously published prediction models for radiographic pneumonia (Neuman, Oostenbrink, Lynch, Mahabee-Gittens, and Lipsett) using data from a single-center prospective study of patients 3 months to 18 years with signs of lower respiratory tract infection. Our outcome was radiographic pneumonia. We compared each model's area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and evaluated their diagnostic accuracy at statistically-derived cutpoints.

RESULTS

Radiographic pneumonia was identified in 253 (22.2%) of 1142 patients. When using model coefficients derived from the study dataset, AUROC ranged from 0.58 (95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.64) to 0.79 (95% confidence interval, 0.75-0.82). When using coefficients derived from original study models, 2 studies demonstrated an AUROC >0.70 (Neuman and Lipsett); this increased to 3 after deriving regression coefficients from the study cohort (Neuman, Lipsett, and Oostenbrink). Two models required historical and clinical data (Neuman and Lipsett), and the third additionally required C-reactive protein (Oostenbrink). At a statistically derived cutpoint of predicted risk from each model, sensitivity ranged from 51.2% to 70.4%, specificity 49.9% to 87.5%, positive predictive value 16.1% to 54.4%, and negative predictive value 83.9% to 90.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

Prediction models for radiographic pneumonia had varying performance. The 3 models with higher performance may facilitate clinical management by predicting the risk of radiographic pneumonia among children with lower respiratory tract infection.

Candidate Biomarkers for the Detection of Serious Infections in Children: A Prospective Clinical Study

Serious bacterial infections (SBI) in children are associated with considerable morbidity and mortality, and their early identification remains challenging. The role of laboratory tests in this setting is still debated, and new biomarkers are needed. This prospective, observational, single-center study aims to evaluate the diagnostic role of blood biomarkers in detecting SBI in children presenting with signs of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). A panel of biomarkers was performed, including C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), white blood cell count (WBC), absolute neutrophil count (ANC), interleukin (IL)-6, IL-8, IL-10, human terminal complement complex (C5b-9), Plasmalemma-Vesicle-associated protein 1 (PV-1), Intercellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1), and Phospholipase A2 (PLA2). Among 103 patients (median age 2.9 years, 60% males), 39 had a diagnosis of SBI (38%). Significant predictors of SBI were CRP (p = 0.001) and ICAM-1 (p = 0.043). WBC (p = 0.035), ANC (p = 0.012) and ANC/WBC ratio (p = 0.015) were also significantly associated with SBI in children without pre-existing neutropenia. ROC curves, however, revealed suboptimal performance for all variables. Nevertheless, a model that combined CRP and ANC/WBC ratio had more in-depth diagnostic accuracy than either of the two variables. Overall, this study confirms the limited usefulness of blood biomarkers for the early diagnosis of SBI. WBC, ANC, ANC/WBC ratio, CRP, and ICAM-1 showed the best, albeit moderate, diagnostic accuracy.

Accuracy of the NICE Traffic Light system for detecting serious illness in acutely unwell children presenting to general practice: a retrospective cohort study

Background

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) traffic light system was created to facilitate the assessment of unwell children in primary care. To the authors’ knowledge, no studies have validated this tool in UK general practice.

Aim

To evaluate the accuracy of this system for detecting serious illness in children presenting to general practice.

Design and setting

A retrospective diagnostic accuracy study was undertaken, using a cohort of acutely unwell children aged <5 years presenting to general practice in England and Wales.

Method

The traffic light categories of 6703 children were linked with hospital data to identify admissions and diagnoses. The sensitivity and specificity of these categories were calculated against the reference standard: a hospital-diagnosed serious illness within 7 days of GP consultation, measured using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes.

Results

In total, 2116 (31.6%) children were categorised as ‘red’; 4204 (62.7%) as ‘amber’; and 383 (5.7%) as ‘green’. There were 139 (2.1%) children who were admitted to hospital within 7 days of consultation, of whom 17 (12.2%; 0.3% overall) had a serious illness. The sensitivity of the red category (versus amber and green) was 58.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 32.9 to 81.6) and the specificity 68.5% (95% CI = 67.4 to 69.6). The sensitivity and specificity of red and amber combined (versus green) was 100% (95% CI = 80.5 to 100) and 5.7% (95% CI = 5.2 to 6.3), respectively.

Conclusion

The NICE traffic light system did not accurately detect children admitted with a serious illness, nor those not seriously ill who could have been managed at home. This system is not suitable for use as a clinical tool in general practice. Further research is required to update or replace the system.

Shock Index in the early assessment of febrile children at the emergency department: a prospective multicentre study

OBJECTIVE

(1) To derive reference values for the Shock Index (heart rate/systolic blood pressure) based on a large emergency department (ED) population of febrile children and (2) to determine the diagnostic value of the Shock Index for serious illness in febrile children.

DESIGN/SETTING

Observational study in 11 European EDs (2017-2018).

PATIENTS

Febrile children with measured blood pressure.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Serious bacterial infection (SBI), invasive bacterial infection (IBI), immediate life-saving interventions (ILSIs) and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. The association between high Shock Index (>95th centile) and each outcome was determined by logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, referral, comorbidity and temperature. Additionally, we calculated sensitivity, specificity and negative/positive likelihood ratios (LRs).

RESULTS

Of 5622 children, 461 (8.2%) had SBI, 46 (0.8%) had IBI, 203 (3.6%) were treated with ILSI and 69 (1.2%) were ICU admitted. High Shock Index was associated with SBI (adjusted OR (aOR) 1.6 (95% CI 1.3 to 1.9)), ILSI (aOR 2.5 (95% CI 2.0 to 2.9)), ICU admission (aOR 2.2 (95% CI 1.4 to 2.9)) but not with IBI (aOR: 1.5 (95% CI 0.6 to 2.4)). For the different outcomes, sensitivity for high Shock Index ranged from 0.10 to 0.15, specificity ranged from 0.95 to 0.95, negative LRs ranged from 0.90 to 0.95 and positive LRs ranged from 1.8 to 2.8.

CONCLUSIONS

High Shock Index is associated with serious illness in febrile children. However, its rule-out value is insufficient which suggests that the Shock Index is not valuable as a screening tool for all febrile children at the ED.

Febrile children with comorbidities at the emergency department - a multicentre observational study

We aimed to describe characteristics and management of children with comorbidities attending European emergency departments (EDs) with fever. MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in children in Europe) is a prospective multicentre study (12 European EDs, 8 countries). Febrile children with comorbidities were compared to those without in terms of patient characteristics, markers of disease severity, management, and diagnosis. Comorbidity was defined as a chronic underlying condition that is expected to last > 1 year. We performed multivariable logistic regression analysis, displaying adjusted odds ratios (aOR), adjusting for patient characteristics. We included 38,110 patients, of whom 5906 (16%) had comorbidities. Most common comorbidities were pulmonary, neurologic, or prematurity. Patients with comorbidities more often were ill appearing (20 versus 16%, p < 0.001), had an ED-Paediatric Early Warning Score of > 15 (22 versus 12%, p < 0.001), or a C-reactive protein > 60 mg/l (aOR 1.4 (95%CI 1.3-1.6)). They more often required life-saving interventions (aOR 2.7, 95% CI 2.2-3.3), were treated with intravenous antibiotics (aOR 2.3, 95%CI 2.1-2.5), and were admitted to the ward (aOR 2.2, 95%CI 2.1-2.4) or paediatric intensive care unit (PICU) (aOR 5.5, 95% CI 3.8-7.9). They were more often diagnosed with serious bacterial infections (aOR 1.8, 95%CI 1.7-2.0), including sepsis/meningitis (aOR 4.6, 95%CI 3.2-6.7). Children most at risk for sepsis/meningitis were children with malignancy/immunodeficiency (aOR 14.5, 8.5-24.8), while children with psychomotor delay/neurological disease were most at risk for life-saving interventions (aOR 5.3, 4.1-6.9) or PICU admission (aOR 9.7, 6.1-15.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data show how children with comorbidities are a population at risk, as they more often are diagnosed with bacterial infections and more often require PICU admission and life-saving interventions.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• While children with comorbidity constitute a large part of ED frequent flyers, they are often excluded from studies.

WHAT IS NEW

• Children with comorbidities in general are more ill upon presentation than children without comorbidities. • Children with comorbidities form a heterogeneous group; specific subgroups have an increased risk for invasive bacterial infections, while others have an increased risk of invasive interventions such as PICU admission, regardless of the cause of the fever.

A Prediction Model for Pediatric Radiographic Pneumonia

BACKGROUND

Chest radiographs (CXRs) are frequently used in the diagnosis of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). We sought to construct a predictive model for radiographic CAP based on clinical features to decrease CXR use.

METHODS

We performed a single-center prospective study of patients 3 months to 18 years of age with signs of lower respiratory infection who received a CXR for suspicion of CAP. We used penalized multivariable logistic regression to develop a full model and bootstrapped backward selection models to develop a parsimonious reduced model. We evaluated model performance at different thresholds of predicted risk.

RESULTS

Radiographic CAP was identified in 253 (22.2%) of 1142 patients. In multivariable analysis, increasing age, prolonged fever duration, tachypnea, and focal decreased breath sounds were positively associated with CAP. Rhinorrhea and wheezing were negatively associated with CAP. The bootstrapped reduced model retained 3 variables: age, fever duration, and decreased breath sounds. The area under the receiver operating characteristic for the reduced model was 0.80 (95% confidence interval: 0.77-0.84). Of 229 children with a predicted risk of <4%, 13 (5.7%) had radiographic CAP (sensitivity of 94.9% at a 4% risk threshold). Conversely, of 229 children with a predicted risk of >39%, 140 (61.1%) had CAP (specificity of 90% at a 39% risk threshold).

CONCLUSIONS

A predictive model including age, fever duration, and decreased breath sounds has excellent discrimination for radiographic CAP. After external validation, this model may facilitate decisions around CXR or antibiotic use in CAP.

Diagnostic variation for febrile children in European emergency departments

The study aimed to explore the use of diagnostics for febrile children presenting to European emergency departments (EDs), the determinants of inter-hospital variation, and the association between test use and hospitalization. We performed a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional observational study involving 28 paediatric EDs from 11 countries. A total of 4560 children < 16 years were included, with fever as reason for consultation. We excluded neonates and children with relevant comorbidities. Our primary outcome was the proportion of children receiving testing after primary evaluation, by country and by focus of infection. Variability between hospitals and effects of blood testing on patient disposition were explored by multilevel regression analyses, adjusting for patient characteristics (age group, triage level, appearance, fever duration, focus of infection) and hospital type (academic, teaching, other). The use of routine diagnostics varied widely, mostly in the use of blood tests, ranging from 3 to 75% overall across hospitals. Age < 3 months, high-acuity triage level, ill appearance, and suspicion of urinary tract infection displayed the strongest association with blood testing (odds ratios (OR) of 8.71 (95% CI 5.23-14.53), 19.46 (3.66-103.60), 3.13 (2.29-4.26), 10.84 (6.35-18.50), respectively). Blood testing remained highly variable across hospitals (median OR of the final model 2.36, 1.98-3.54). A positive association was observed between blood testing and hospitalization (OR 13.62, 9.00-20.61).

CONCLUSION

the use of diagnostics for febrile children was highly variable across European EDs, yet patient and hospital characteristics could only partly explain inter-hospital variability. Focus groups of participating sites should help define reasons for unexpected variation.

WHAT IS KNOWN

• Although previous research has shown variation in the emergency department (ED) management of febrile children, there is limited information on the use of diagnostics in European EDs. • A deeper knowledge of variability and its determinants can steer optimization of care.

WHAT IS NEW

• The use of diagnostics for febrile children was highly variable across European EDs, yet patient and hospital characteristics could only partly explain inter-hospital variability. • Data on between-centre comparison offer opportunities to further explore factors influencing unwarranted variation.

Integrating Clinical Signs at Presentation and Clinician's Non-analytical Reasoning in Prediction Models for Serious Bacterial Infection in Febrile Children Presenting to Emergency Department

OBJECTIVE

Development and validation of clinical prediction model (CPM) for serious bacterial infections (SBIs) in children presenting to the emergency department (ED) with febrile illness, based on clinical variables, clinician's "gut feeling," and "sense of reassurance.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Febrile children presenting to the ED of Children's Clinical University Hospital (CCUH) between April 1, 2017 and December 31, 2018 were enrolled in a prospective observational study. Data on clinical signs and symptoms at presentation, together with clinician's "gut feeling" of something wrong and "sense of reassurance" were collected as candidate variables for CPM. Variable selection for the CPM was performed using stepwise logistic regression (forward, backward, and bidirectional); Akaike information criterion was used to limit the number of parameters and simplify the model. Bootstrapping was applied for internal validation. For external validation, the model was tested in a separate dataset of patients presenting to six regional hospitals between January 1 and March 31, 2019.

RESULTS

The derivation cohort consisted of 517; 54% (n = 279) were boys, and the median age was 58 months. SBI was diagnosed in 26.7% (n = 138). Validation cohort included 188 patients; the median age was 28 months, and 26.6% (n = 50) developed SBI. Two CPMs were created, namely, CPM1 consisting of six clinical variables and CPM2 with four clinical variables plus "gut feeling" and "sense of reassurance." The area under the curve (AUC) for receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve of CPM1 was 0.744 (95% CI, 0.683-0.805) in the derivation cohort and 0.692 (95% CI, 0.604-0.780) in the validation cohort. AUC for CPM2 was 0.783 (0.727-0.839) and 0.752 (0.674-0.830) in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. AUC of CPM2 in validation population was significantly higher than that of CPM1 [p = 0.037, 95% CI (-0.129; -0.004)]. A clinical evaluation score was derived from CPM2 to stratify patients in "low risk," "gray area," and "high risk" for SBI.

CONCLUSION

Both CPMs had moderate ability to predict SBI and acceptable performance in the validation cohort. Adding variables "gut feeling" and "sense of reassurance" in CPM2 improved its ability to predict SBI. More validation studies are needed for the assessment of applicability to all febrile patients presenting to ED.

A NICE combination for predicting hospitalisation at the Emergency Department: a European multicentre observational study of febrile children

Background

Prolonged Emergency Department (ED) stay causes crowding and negatively impacts quality of care. We developed and validated a prediction model for early identification of febrile children with a high risk of hospitalisation in order to improve ED flow.

Methods

The MOFICHE study prospectively collected data on febrile children (0-18 years) presenting to 12 European EDs. A prediction models was constructed using multivariable logistic regression and included patient characteristics available at triage. We determined the discriminative values of the model by calculating the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC).

Findings

Of 38,424 paediatric encounters, 9,735 children were admitted to the ward and 157 to the PICU. The prediction model, combining patient characteristics and NICE alarming, yielded an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI 0.83-0.84).The model performed well for a rule-in threshold of 75% (specificity 99.0% (95%CI 98.9-99.1%, positive likelihood ratio 15.1 (95%CI 13.4-17.1), positive predictive value 0.84 (95%CI 0.82-0.86)) and a rule-out threshold of 7.5% (sensitivity 95.4% (95%CI 95.0-95.8), negative likelihood ratio 0.15 (95%CI 0.14-0.16), negative predictive value 0..95 (95%CI 0.95-9.96)). Validation in a separate dataset showed an excellent AUC of 0.91 (95%CI 0.90- 0.93). The model performed well for identifying children needing PICU admission (AUC 0.95, 95%CI 0.93-0.97). A digital calculator was developed to facilitate clinical use.

Interpretation

Patient characteristics and NICE alarming signs available at triage can be used to identify febrile children at high risk for hospitalisation and can be used to improve ED flow.

Funding

European Union, NIHR, NHS.

A Novel Framework for Phenotyping Children With Suspected or Confirmed Infection for Future Biomarker Studies

Background: The limited diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers in children at risk of a serious bacterial infection (SBI) might be due to the imperfect reference standard of SBI. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of a new classification algorithm for biomarker discovery in children at risk of SBI. Methods: We used data from five previously published, prospective observational biomarker discovery studies, which included patients aged 0- <16 years: the Alder Hey emergency department (n = 1,120), Alder Hey pediatric intensive care unit (n = 355), Erasmus emergency department (n = 1,993), Maasstad emergency department (n = 714) and St. Mary's hospital (n = 200) cohorts. Biomarkers including procalcitonin (PCT) (4 cohorts), neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin-2 (NGAL) (3 cohorts) and resistin (2 cohorts) were compared for their ability to classify patients according to current standards (dichotomous classification of SBI vs. non-SBI), vs. a proposed PERFORM classification algorithm that assign patients to one of eleven categories. These categories were based on clinical phenotype, test outcomes and C-reactive protein level and accounted for the uncertainty of final diagnosis in many febrile children. The success of the biomarkers was measured by the Area under the receiver operating Curves (AUCs) when they were used individually or in combination. Results: Using the new PERFORM classification system, patients with clinically confident bacterial diagnosis ("definite bacterial" category) had significantly higher levels of PCT, NGAL and resistin compared with those with a clinically confident viral diagnosis ("definite viral" category). Patients with diagnostic uncertainty had biomarker concentrations that varied across the spectrum. AUCs were higher for classification of "definite bacterial" vs. "definite viral" following the PERFORM algorithm than using the "SBI" vs. "non-SBI" classification; summary AUC for PCT was 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.82) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.65-0.75); for NGAL this was 0.80 (95% CI 0.69-0.91) vs. 0.70 (95% CI 0.58-0.81); for resistin this was 0.68 (95% CI 0.61-0.75) vs. 0.64 (0.58-0.69) The three biomarkers combined had summary AUC of 0.83 (0.77-0.89) for "definite bacterial" vs. "definite viral" infections and 0.71 (0.67-0.74) for "SBI" vs. "non-SBI." Conclusion: Biomarkers of bacterial infection were strongly associated with the diagnostic categories using the PERFORM classification system in five independent cohorts. Our proposed algorithm provides a novel framework for phenotyping children with suspected or confirmed infection for future biomarker studies.

Impact of a clinical decision rule on antibiotic prescription for children with suspected lower respiratory tract infections presenting to European emergency departments: a simulation study based on routine data

BACKGROUND

Discriminating viral from bacterial lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children is challenging thus commonly resulting in antibiotic overuse. The Feverkidstool, a validated clinical decision rule including clinical symptoms and C-reactive protein, safely reduced antibiotic use in children at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTIs in a multicentre trial at emergency departments (EDs) in the Netherlands.

OBJECTIVES

Using routine data from an observational study, we simulated the impact of the Feverkidstool on antibiotic prescriptions compared with observed antibiotic prescriptions in children with suspected LRTIs at 12 EDs in eight European countries.

METHODS

We selected febrile children aged 1 month to 5 years with respiratory symptoms and excluded upper respiratory tract infections. Using the Feverkidstool, we calculated individual risks for bacterial LRTI retrospectively. We simulated antibiotic prescription rates under different scenarios: (1) applying effect estimates on antibiotic prescription from the trial; and (2) varying both usage (50%-100%) and compliance (70%-100%) with the Feverkidstool's advice to withhold antibiotics in children at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTI (≤10%).

RESULTS

Of 4938 children, 4209 (85.2%) were at low/intermediate risk for bacterial LRTI. Applying effect estimates from the trial, the Feverkidstool reduced antibiotic prescription from 33.5% to 24.1% [pooled risk difference: 9.4% (95% CI: 5.7%-13.1%)]. Simulating 50%-100% usage with 90% compliance resulted in risk differences ranging from 8.3% to 15.8%. Our simulations suggest that antibiotic prescriptions would be reduced in EDs with high baseline antibiotic prescription rates or predominantly (>85%) low/intermediate-risk children.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of the Feverkidstool could reduce antibiotic prescriptions in children with suspected LRTIs in European EDs.

The Role of the Respiratory Microbiome and Viral Presence in Lower Respiratory Tract Infection Severity in the First Five Years of Life

Lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) in children are common and, although often mild, a major cause of mortality and hospitalization. Recently, the respiratory microbiome has been associated with both susceptibility and severity of LRTI. In this current study, we combined respiratory microbiome, viral, and clinical data to find associations with the severity of LRTI. Nasopharyngeal aspirates of children aged one month to five years included in the STRAP study (Study to Reduce Antibiotic prescription in childhood Pneumonia), who presented at the emergency department (ED) with fever and cough or dyspnea, were sequenced with nanopore 16S-rRNA gene sequencing and subsequently analyzed with hierarchical clustering to identify respiratory microbiome profiles. Samples were also tested using a panel of 15 respiratory viruses and Mycoplasma pneumoniae, which were analyzed in two groups, according to their reported virulence. The primary outcome was hospitalization, as measure of disease severity. Nasopharyngeal samples were isolated from a total of 167 children. After quality filtering, microbiome results were available for 54 children and virology panels for 158 children. Six distinct genus-dominant microbiome profiles were identified, with Haemophilus-, Moraxella-, and Streptococcus-dominant profiles being the most prevalent. However, these profiles were not found to be significantly associated with hospitalization. At least one virus was detected in 139 (88%) children, of whom 32.4% had co-infections with multiple viruses. Viral co-infections were common for adenovirus, bocavirus, and enterovirus, and uncommon for human metapneumovirus (hMPV) and influenza A virus. The detection of enteroviruses was negatively associated with hospitalization. Virulence groups were not significantly associated with hospitalization. Our data underlines high detection rates and co-infection of viruses in children with respiratory symptoms and confirms the predominant presence of Haemophilus-, Streptococcus-, and Moraxella-dominant profiles in a symptomatic pediatric population at the ED. However, we could not assess significant associations between microbiome profiles and disease severity measures.

Development and validation of a prediction model for invasive bacterial infections in febrile children at European Emergency Departments: MOFICHE, a prospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To develop and cross-validate a multivariable clinical prediction model to identify invasive bacterial infections (IBI) and to identify patient groups who might benefit from new biomarkers.

DESIGN

Prospective observational study.

SETTING

12 emergency departments (EDs) in 8 European countries.

PATIENTS

Febrile children aged 0-18 years.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

IBI, defined as bacteraemia, meningitis and bone/joint infection. We derived and cross-validated a model for IBI using variables from the Feverkidstool (clinical symptoms, C reactive protein), neurological signs, non-blanching rash and comorbidity. We assessed discrimination (area under the receiver operating curve) and diagnostic performance at different risk thresholds for IBI: sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive likelihood ratios (LRs).

RESULTS

Of 16 268 patients, 135 (0.8%) had an IBI. The discriminative ability of the model was 0.84 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88) and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82) in pooled cross-validations. The model performed well for the rule-out threshold of 0.1% (sensitivity 0.97 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.99), negative LR 0.1 (95% CI 0.0 to 0.2) and for the rule-in threshold of 2.0% (specificity 0.94 (95% CI 0.94 to 0.95), positive LR 8.4 (95% CI 6.9 to 10.0)). The intermediate thresholds of 0.1%-2.0% performed poorly (ranges: sensitivity 0.59-0.93, negative LR 0.14-0.57, specificity 0.52-0.88, positive LR 1.9-4.8) and comprised 9784 patients (60%).

CONCLUSIONS

The rule-out threshold of this model has potential to reduce antibiotic treatment while the rule-in threshold could be used to target treatment in febrile children at the ED. In more than half of patients at intermediate risk, sensitive biomarkers could improve identification of IBI and potentially reduce unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions.

Role of point-of-care tests in the management of febrile children: a qualitative study of hospital-based doctors and nurses in England

OBJECTIVES

The use of rapid point-of-care tests (POCTs) has been advocated for improving patient management and outcomes and for optimising antibiotic prescribing. However, few studies have explored healthcare workers' views about their use in febrile children. The aim of this study was to explore the perceptions of hospital-based doctors and nurses regarding the use of POCTs in England.

STUDY DESIGN

Qualitative in-depth interviews with purposively selected hospital doctors and nurses. Data were analysed thematically.

SETTING

Two university teaching hospitals in London and Newcastle.

PARTICIPANTS

24 participants (paediatricians, emergency department doctors, trainee paediatricians and nurses).

RESULTS

There were diverse views about the use of POCTs in febrile children. The reported advantages included their ease of use and the rapid availability of results. They were seen to contribute to faster clinical decision-making; the targeting of antibiotic use; improvements in patient care, flow and monitoring; cohorting (ie, the physical clustering of hospitalised patients with the same infection to limit spread) and enhancing communication with parents. These advantages were less evident when the turnaround for results of laboratory tests was 1-2 hours. Factors such as clinical experience and specialty, as well as the availability of guidelines recommending POCT use, were also perceived as influential. However, in addition to their perceived inaccuracy, participants were concerned about POCTs not resolving diagnostic uncertainty or altering clinical management, leading to a commonly expressed preference for relying on clinical skills rather than test results solely.

CONCLUSION

In this study conducted at two university teaching hospitals in England, participants expressed mixed opinions about the utility of current POCTs in the management of febrile children. Understanding the current clinical decision-making process and the specific needs and preferences of clinicians in different settings will be critical in ensuring the optimal design and deployment of current and future tests.

Shivering has little diagnostic value in diagnosing serious bacterial infection in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Early diagnosis of serious bacterial infections (SBI) is important for improving outcome of morbidity and mortality in children. A systematic review was conducted to examine if shivering had any value in diagnosing serious bacterial infection. We split our population (0-18 years old) into two categories depending on the presence of a known malignancy. The databases of Medline, Embase, Cinahl, and Web of Science were searched from inception until July 2019. The quality was assessed with the QUADAS-2 tool. Two by two tables were created, extracting the number of true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP), and false negative (FN) regarding shivering and SBI, by 2 authors independently. Sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, and their 95% confidence intervals were calculated using the MetaDATA Shiny app. In a population with known malignancy, we found a +LR of 3.47 (95% CI 2.58-4.36) for a serious bacterial infection when shivering was present, implying an increase of 25-30% possibility for a serious bacterial infection. In children without malignancy, diagnostic accuracy of shivering was poor.Conclusion: Shivering is of limited use to diagnose serious bacterial infection in children without malignancy. Nevertheless, in children with known malignancy, it can be useful as an alarm signal. What is Known: • In the NICE guidelines for febrile illness in children, "shivering" is considered as an intermediate risk factor ("amber" sign) for a serious illness. • A systematic literature search conducted in 2007 investigating the correlation between shivering in a febrile child and the presence of a serious bacterial infection could include only one study. What is New: • Based on the results of this systematic review, shivering has little diagnostic value in children without malignancy but can be useful as an alarm sign of serious bacterial infection in children with known malignancy. • In case of absence of shivering, serious bacterial infection cannot be ruled out.

Threshold for defining fever varies with age, especially in children: A multi-site diagnostic accuracy study

Aim

The American Academy of Pediatrics and the European Centre for Pediatric and Adolescent Medicine guideline define fever as a temperature >38.0°C for all ages and recommend use of rectal thermometers in children <3 years. Based on new literature, this definition of fever using a fixed threshold of 38.0°C needs to be re‐examined.

Design

A multi‐site diagnostic accuracy study was conducted to compare an “age‐based” threshold model with a “fixed” threshold over 38.0°C on a total of 894 patients of which 373 were ill.

Methods

The “age‐based” and “fixed” threshold fever determinations were then compared to a clinical categorization (“well” or “ill”) conducted by a clinician through a comprehensive examination.

Results

The sensitivity and accuracy for the age‐based thresholds were found to be superior to the fixed thresholds in all ages and current ear thermometers were found equivalent to rectal thermometers in infants <6 months.

Improving the prioritization of children at the emergency department: Updating the Manchester Triage System using vital signs

Background

Vital signs are used in emergency care settings in the first assessment of children to identify those that need immediate attention. We aimed to develop and validate vital sign based Manchester Triage System (MTS) discriminators to improve triage of children at the emergency department.

Methods and findings

The TrIAGE project is a prospective observational study based on electronic health record data from five European EDs (Netherlands (n = 2), United Kingdom, Austria, and Portugal). In the current study, we included 117,438 consecutive children <16 years presenting to the ED during the study period (2012–2015). We derived new discriminators based on heart rate, respiratory rate, and/or capillary refill time for specific subgroups of MTS flowcharts. Moreover, we determined the optimal cut-off value for each vital sign. The main outcome measure was a previously developed 3-category reference standard (high, intermediate, low urgency) for the required urgency of care, based on mortality at the ED, immediate lifesaving interventions, disposition and resource use. We determined six new discriminators for children <1 year and ≥1 year: “Very abnormal respiratory rate”, “Abnormal heart rate”, and “Abnormal respiratory rate”, with optimal cut-offs, and specific subgroups of flowcharts. Application of the modified MTS reclassified 744 patients (2.5%). Sensitivity increased from 0.66 (95%CI 0.60–0.72) to 0.71 (0.66–0.75) for high urgency patients and from 0.67 (0.54–0.76) to 0.70 (0.58–0.80) for high and intermediate urgency patients. Specificity decreased from 0.90 (0.86–0.93) to 0.89 (0.85–0.92) for high and 0.66 (0.52–0.78) to 0.63 (0.50–0.75) for high and intermediate urgency patients. These differences were statistically significant. Overall performance improved (R² 0.199 versus 0.204).

Conclusions

Six new discriminators based on vital signs lead to a small but relevant increase in performance and should be implemented in the MTS.

CD169 and CD64 could help differentiate bacterial from CoVID-19 or other viral infections in the Emergency Department

The identification of a bacterial, viral, or even noninfectious cause is essential in the management of febrile syndrome in the emergency department (ED), especially in epidemic contexts such as flu or CoVID-19. The aim was to assess discriminative performances of two biomarkers, CD64 on neutrophils (nCD64) and CD169 on monocytes (mCD169), using a new flow cytometry procedure, in patients presenting with fever to the ED during epidemics. Eighty five adult patients presenting with potential infection were included during the 2019 flu season in the ED of La Timone Hospital. They were divided into four diagnostic outcomes according to their clinical records: no-infection, bacterial infection, viral infection and co-infection. Seventy six patients with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were also compared to 48 healthy volunteers. For the first cohort, 38 (45%) patients were diagnosed with bacterial infections, 11 (13%) with viral infections and 29 (34%) with co-infections. mCD169 was elevated in patients with viral infections, with a majority of Flu A virus or Respiratory Syncytial Virus, while nCD64 was elevated in subjects with bacterial infections, with a majority of Streptococcus pneumoniae and Escherichia coli. nCD64 and mCD169 showed 90% and 80% sensitivity, and 78% and 91% specificity, respectively, for identifying patients with bacterial or viral infections. When studied in a second cohort, mCD169 was elevated in 95% of patients with SARS-CoV-2 infections and remained at normal level in 100% of healthy volunteers. nCD64 and mCD169 have potential for accurately distinguishing bacterial and acute viral infections. Combined in an easy and rapid flow cytometry procedure, they constitute a potential improvement for infection management in the ED, and could even help for triage of patients during emerging epidemics.

Prediction of disease severity in young children presenting with acute febrile illness in resource-limited settings: a protocol for a prospective observational study

INTRODUCTION

In rural and difficult-to-access settings, early and accurate recognition of febrile children at risk of progressing to serious illness could contribute to improved patient outcomes and better resource allocation. This study aims to develop a prognostic clinical prediction tool to assist community healthcare providers identify febrile children who might benefit from referral or admission for facility-based medical care.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This prospective observational study will recruit at least 4900 paediatric inpatients and outpatients under the age of 5 years presenting with an acute febrile illness to seven hospitals in six countries across Asia. A venous blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab is collected from each participant and detailed clinical data recorded at presentation, and each day for the first 48 hours of admission for inpatients. Multianalyte assays are performed at reference laboratories to measure a panel of host biomarkers, as well as targeted aetiological investigations for common bacterial and viral pathogens. Clinical outcome is ascertained on day 2 and day 28.Presenting syndromes, clinical outcomes and aetiology of acute febrile illness will be described and compared across sites. Following the latest guidance in prediction model building, a prognostic clinical prediction model, combining simple clinical features and measurements of host biomarkers, will be derived and geographically externally validated. The performance of the model will be evaluated in specific presenting clinical syndromes and fever aetiologies.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The study has received approval from all relevant international, national and institutional ethics committees. Written informed consent is provided by the caretaker of all participants. Results will be shared with local and national stakeholders, and disseminated via peer-reviewed open-access journals and scientific meetings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04285021.

The influence of chest X-ray results on antibiotic prescription for childhood pneumonia in the emergency department

The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of chest X-ray (CXR) results on antibiotic prescription in children suspected of lower respiratory tract infections (RTI) in the emergency department (ED). We performed a secondary analysis of a stepped-wedge, cluster randomized trial of children aged 1 month to 5 years with fever and cough/dyspnoea in 8 EDs in the Netherlands (2016-2018), including a 1-week follow-up. We analysed the observational data of the pre-intervention period, using multivariable logistic regression to evaluate the influence of CXR result on antibiotic prescription. We included 597 children (median age 17 months [IQR 9-30, 61% male). CXR was performed in 109/597 (18%) of children (range across hospitals 9 to 50%); 52/109 (48%) showed focal infiltrates. Children who underwent CXR were more likely to receive antibiotics, also when adjusted for clinical signs and symptoms, hospital and CXR result (OR 7.25 [95% CI 2.48-21.2]). Abnormalities on CXR were not significantly associated with antibiotic prescription.Conclusion: Performance of CXR was independently associated with more antibiotic prescription, regardless of its results. The limited influence of CXR results on antibiotic prescription highlights the inferior role of CXR on treatment decisions for suspected lower RTI in the ED. What is Known: • Chest X-ray (CXR) has a high inter-observer variability and cannot distinguish between bacterial or viral pneumonia. • Current guidelines recommend against routine use of CXR in children with uncomplicated respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in the outpatient setting. What is New: • CXR is still frequently performed in non-complex children suspected of lower RTIs in the emergency department • CXR performance was independently associated with more antibiotic prescriptions, regardless of its results, highlighting the inferior role of chest X-rays in treatment decisions.

Fever Without an Apparent Source in Young Infants: A Multicenter Retrospective Evaluation of Adherence to the Dutch Guidelines

BACKGROUND

The Dutch fever without an apparent source (FWS) guidelines were published to timely recognize and treat serious infections. We determined the adherence to the Dutch FWS guidelines and the percentage of serious infections in infants younger than 3 months of age. Second, we identified which clinical criteria, diagnostic tests, and management were associated with nonadherence to the guidelines.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was performed in 2 Dutch teaching hospitals. We assessed the charts of all infants with FWS who presented at the emergency departments from September 30, 2017, to October 1, 2019. Diagnostic and therapeutic decisions were compared with the recommendations, as published in the Dutch guidelines. Infants were categorized into the nonadherence group in case 1 or more recommendations were not adhered to.

RESULTS

Data on 231 infants were studied; 51.5% of the cases adhered to the Dutch guidelines and 16.0% suffered from a serious infection. The percentage of infants with a serious infection was higher in the adherence compared with the nonadherence group. We observed no relevant differences in clinical outcomes. Univariate regression analysis showed that an abnormal white blood cell count was associated with nonadherence (OR 0.4, P = 0.049). Not obtaining a urine and blood culture and not starting intravenous antibiotic treatment were the most frequent reasons for nonadherence to the guidelines.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study indicates that there was nonadherence in a large proportion of FWS cases. The guidelines may need to be adjusted to increase adherence.

Risk prediction models to guide antibiotic prescribing: a study on adult patients with uncomplicated upper respiratory tract infections in an emergency department

BACKGROUND

Appropriate antibiotic prescribing is key to combating antimicrobial resistance. Upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) are common reasons for emergency department (ED) visits and antibiotic use. Differentiating between bacterial and viral infections is not straightforward. We aim to provide an evidence-based clinical decision support tool for antibiotic prescribing using prediction models developed from local data.

METHODS

Seven hundred-fifteen patients with uncomplicated URTI were recruited and analysed from Singapore's busiest ED, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, from June 2016 to November 2018. Confirmatory tests were performed using the multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test for respiratory viruses and point-of-care test for C-reactive protein. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data were extracted from the hospital electronic medical records. Seventy percent of the data was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for validation. Decision trees, LASSO and logistic regression models were built to predict when antibiotics were not needed.

RESULTS

The median age of the cohort was 36 years old, with 61.2% being male. Temperature and pulse rate were significant factors in all 3 models. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) on the validation set for the models were similar. (LASSO: 0.70 [95% CI: 0.62-0.77], logistic regression: 0.72 [95% CI: 0.65-0.79], decision tree: 0.67 [95% CI: 0.59-0.74]). Combining the results from all models, 58.3% of study participants would not need antibiotics.

CONCLUSION

The models can be easily deployed as a decision support tool to guide antibiotic prescribing in busy EDs.

Cost Study of a Cluster Randomized Trial on a Clinical Decision Rule Guiding Antibiotic Treatment in Children With Suspected Lower Respiratory Tract Infections in the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Children with fever and respiratory symptoms represent a large patient group at the emergency department (ED). A decision rule-based treatment strategy improved targeting of antibiotics in these children in a recent clinical trial. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the decision rule on healthcare and societal costs, and to describe costs of children with suspected lower respiratory tract infections (RTIs) in the ED in general.

METHODS

In a stepped-wedge, cluster randomized trial, we collected cost data of children 1 month to 5 years of age with fever and cough/dyspnea in 8 EDs in The Netherlands (2016-2018). We calculated medical costs and societal costs per patient, during usual care (n = 597), and when antibiotic prescription was guided by the decision rule (n = 402). We calculated cost-of-illness of this patient group and estimated their annual costs at national level.

RESULTS

The cost-of-illness of children under 5 years with suspected lower RTIs in the ED was on average &OV0556;2130 per patient. At population level this is &OV0556;15 million per year in The Netherlands (&OV0556;1.7 million/100,000 children under 5). Mean costs per patient in usual care (&OV0556;2300) were reduced to &OV0556;1870 in the intervention phase (P = 0.01). Main cost drivers were hospitalization and lost parental workdays.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of a decision rule-based treatment strategy in children with suspected lower RTI was cost-saving, due to a reduction in hospitalization and parental absenteeism. Given the high frequency of this disease in children, the decision rule has the potential to result in a considerable cost reduction at population level.

Assessment of the impact of a new sequential approach to antimicrobial use in young febrile children in the emergency department (DIAFEVERCHILD): a French prospective multicentric controlled, open, cluster-randomised, parallel-group study protocol

INTRODUCTION

Fever is one of the most common reasons for consultation in the paediatric emergency department (ED). Because of fear of bacterial infection in parents and caregivers, clinicians often overprescribe laboratory tests and empirical antibiotic treatment. The aims of this study are to demonstrate that using a procalcitonin (PCT) rapid test-based prediction rule (1) would not be inferior to usual practice in terms of morbidity and mortality (non-inferiority objective) and (2) would result in a significant reduction in antibiotic use (superiority objective).

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This prospective multicentric cluster-randomised study aims to include 7245 febrile children aged 6 days to 3 years with a diagnosis of fever without source in 26 participating EDs in France and Switzerland during a 24-month period. During first period, all children will receive usual care. In a second period, a point-of-care PCT-based algorithm will be used in half of the clusters. The primary endpoints collected on day 15 after ED consultation will be a composite outcome of death or intensive care unit admission for any reason, disease-specific complications, diagnosis of bacterial infection after discharge from the ED for the non-inferiority objective and proportion of children with antibiotic treatment administered for the superiority objective. The endpoints will be compared between the two groups (experimental and control) by using a mixed logistic regression model adjusted on clustering of participants within centres and period within centres.

DISCUSSION

If the algorithm is validated, a new strategy will be discussed with medical societies to safely manage fever in young children without the need for invasive procedures for microbiological testing or empirical antibiotics.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study was submitted to an independent ethics committee on 17 May 2018 (no. 2018-A00252-53). Results will be submitted to international peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03607162; Pre-results.

Respiratory rate is an early predictor of clinical deterioration in children

OBJECTIVE

To assess the value of respiratory rate (RR) as a predictor of clinical deterioration in children, compared with other vital sign measurements.

DESIGN

A retrospective case-control study, comparing children who deteriorated, requiring admission to critical care with children who did not deteriorate.

METHODS

RR, heart rate (HR), and blood pressure (BP) measurements were collected from each patient for a 48-hour duration. The 95th centile was identified for each and 5% to 30% thresholds above the 95th centile were calculated. For each threshold the sensitivity, specificity, odds ratio, positive, and negative predictive value for deterioration was calculated.

RESULTS

Forty cases (age range 7 weeks-15 years) and 40 control patients matched for age, gender, and hospital location were recruited. In 30/40 patients who deteriorated at least one RR ≥ 30% above the 95th centile for their age was recorded in the 48 hours before deterioration, compared with 10/40 controls, regardless of clinical diagnosis. Only 3/40 children that deteriorated had a HR > 30% greater than the 95th centile, compared with 2/40 controls. An elevated RR was the only vital sign whose odds ratios were significant at each threshold level above the 95th centile. Maximum RR occurred 16.8 hours before deterioration.

CONCLUSION

RR is a more accurate predictor of clinical deterioration in children than other vital signs. Greater weighting and importance should be placed on RR, which is often omitted in children due to difficulties with its measurement.

Variation in antibiotic prescription rates in febrile children presenting to emergency departments across Europe (MOFICHE): A multicentre observational study

BACKGROUND

The prescription rate of antibiotics is high for febrile children visiting the emergency department (ED), contributing to antimicrobial resistance. Large studies at European EDs covering diversity in antibiotic and broad-spectrum prescriptions in all febrile children are lacking. A better understanding of variability in antibiotic prescriptions in EDs and its relation with viral or bacterial disease is essential for the development and implementation of interventions to optimise antibiotic use. As part of the PERFORM (Personalised Risk assessment in Febrile illness to Optimise Real-life Management across the European Union) project, the MOFICHE (Management and Outcome of Fever in Children in Europe) study aims to investigate variation and appropriateness of antibiotic prescription in febrile children visiting EDs in Europe.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Between January 2017 and April 2018, data were prospectively collected on febrile children aged 0-18 years presenting to 12 EDs in 8 European countries (Austria, Germany, Greece, Latvia, the Netherlands [n = 3], Spain, Slovenia, United Kingdom [n = 3]). These EDs were based in university hospitals (n = 9) or large teaching hospitals (n = 3). Main outcomes were (1) antibiotic prescription rate; (2) the proportion of antibiotics that were broad-spectrum antibiotics; (3) the proportion of antibiotics of appropriate indication (presumed bacterial), inappropriate indication (presumed viral), or inconclusive indication (unknown bacterial/viral or other); (4) the proportion of oral antibiotics of inappropriate duration; and (5) the proportion of antibiotics that were guideline-concordant in uncomplicated urinary and upper and lower respiratory tract infections (RTIs). We determined variation of antibiotic prescription and broad-spectrum prescription by calculating standardised prescription rates using multilevel logistic regression and adjusted for general characteristics (e.g., age, sex, comorbidity, referral), disease severity (e.g., triage level, fever duration, presence of alarming signs), use and result of diagnostics, and focus and cause of infection. In this analysis of 35,650 children (median age 2.8 years, 55% male), overall antibiotic prescription rate was 31.9% (range across EDs: 22.4%-41.6%), and among those prescriptions, the broad-spectrum antibiotic prescription rate was 52.1% (range across EDs: 33.0%-90.3%). After standardisation, differences in antibiotic prescriptions ranged from 0.8 to 1.4, and the ratio between broad-spectrum and narrow-spectrum prescriptions ranged from 0.7 to 1.8 across EDs. Standardised antibiotic prescription rates varied for presumed bacterial infections (0.9 to 1.1), presumed viral infections (0.1 to 3.3), and infections of unknown cause (0.1 to 1.8). In all febrile children, antibiotic prescriptions were appropriate in 65.0% of prescriptions, inappropriate in 12.5% (range across EDs: 0.6%-29.3%), and inconclusive in 22.5% (range across EDs: 0.4%-60.8%). Prescriptions were of inappropriate duration in 20% of oral prescriptions (range across EDs: 4.4%-59.0%). Oral prescriptions were not concordant with the local guideline in 22.3% (range across EDs: 11.8%-47.3%) of prescriptions in uncomplicated RTIs and in 45.1% (range across EDs: 11.1%-100%) of prescriptions in uncomplicated urinary tract infections. A limitation of our study is that the included EDs are not representative of all febrile children attending EDs in that country.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we observed wide variation between European EDs in prescriptions of antibiotics and broad-spectrum antibiotics in febrile children. Overall, one-third of prescriptions were inappropriate or inconclusive, with marked variation between EDs. Until better diagnostics are available to accurately differentiate between bacterial and viral aetiologies, implementation of antimicrobial stewardship guidelines across Europe is necessary to limit antimicrobial resistance.

Prevalence and predictors of antibiotic use among children visiting the Emergency Department in a Tertiary Hospital in Malaysia

Inappropriate use of antibiotics in human and animal is one of the causes of antimicrobial resistance. This study evaluates the prevalence and predictors of antibiotic use among pediatric patients visiting the Emergency Department (ED) in Malaysia. A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted in the ED of a tertiary hospital. Data of children aged 2 to 11 years who visited the ED from January-May 2015 were extracted from the patient's assessment forms. A total of 549 children were included in the analysis (median age 5 years) of which 54.3% were boys. Upper respiratory tract infections (URTI) were the most common diagnosis. Antibiotic was prescribed in 43.5% of the children. Children who visited the ED during the weekend (OR, 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.13-2.40, P = 0.009), those diagnosed with URTI (OR 3.81; 95% CI, 2.45-5.93, P < 0.001) and those with a longer duration of fever (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.15-1.48, P < 0.001) were more likely to have an antibiotic prescription.Conclusions: Antibiotic was prescribed in more than one-third of children who visited the ED and antibiotic use was associated with visits during the weekend, URTI, and duration of fever. Antimicrobial stewardship program is recommended in the pediatric ED to improve appropriate use of antibiotics.What is Known:•Use of antibiotic among children increases the risk of antibiotic resistance and adverse drug reactions.•Patient-, clinical-, and prescriber-related factors are three important domain associated with antibiotic use in children.What is New:•Fever and upper respiratory tract infections account for majority of antibiotic prescriptions.•The "weekend effect" influences the use of antibiotics in the ED while upper respiratory tract infection is the strongest predictor of antibiotic use among children visiting the ED.

Management of Children With Fever at Risk for Pediatric Sepsis: A Prospective Study in Pediatric Emergency Care

Objective: To study warning signs of serious infections in febrile children presenting to PED, ascertain their risk of having sepsis, and evaluate their management. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: A single pediatric emergency department (PED). Participants: Febrile children, aged 1 month-16 years, with >= 1 warning signs of sepsis. Interventions and Main outcome measures: Clinical characteristics, including different thresholds for tachycardia and tachypnoea, and their association with (1) delivery of pediatric sepsis 6 (PS6) interventions, (2) final diagnosis of invasive bacterial infection (IBI), (3) the risk for pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) admission, and (4) death. Results: Forty-one percent of 5,156 febrile children had warning signs of sepsis. 1,606 (34%) children had tachypnoea and 1,907 (39%) children had tachycardia when using APLS threshold values. Using the NICE sepsis guidelines thresholds resulted in 1,512 (32%) children having tachypnoea (kappa 0.56) and 2,769 (57%) children having tachycardia (kappa 0.66). Of 1,628 PED visits spanning 1,551 disease episodes, six children (0.4%) had IBI, with one death (0.06%), corresponding with 256 children requiring escalation of care according to sepsis guideline recommendations for each child with IBI. There were five additional PICU admissions (0.4%). 121 (7%) had intravenous antibiotics in PED; 39 children (2%) had an intravenous fluid bolus, inotrope drugs were started in one child. 440 children (27%) were reviewed by a senior clinician. In 4/11 children with IBI or PICU admission or death, PS6 interventions were delivered within 60 min after arriving. 1,062 (65%) visits had no PS6 interventions. Diagnostic performance of vital signs or sepsis criteria for predicting serious illness yielded a large proportion of false positives. Lactataemia was not associated with giving iv fluid boluses (p = 0.19) or presence of serious bacterial infections (p = 0.128). Conclusion: Many febrile children (41%) present with warning signs for sepsis, with only few of them undergoing investigations or treatment for true sepsis. Children with positive isolates in blood or CSF culture presented in a heterogeneous manner, with varying levels of urgency and severity of illness. Delivery of sepsis care can be improved in only a minority of children with IBI or admitted to PICU.

Measuring vital signs in children with fever at the emergency department: an observational study on adherence to the NICE recommendations in Europe

Vital signs can help clinicians identify children at risk of serious illness. The NICE guideline for fever in under-fives recommends a routine measurement of temperature, heart rate, capillary refill and respiratory rate in all febrile children visiting the emergency department (ED). This study aims to evaluate the measurement of paediatric vital signs in European EDs, with specific attention to adherence to this NICE guideline recommendation. In a prospective observational study, we included 4560 febrile children under 16 years from the ED of 28 hospitals in 11 European countries (2014-2016). Hospitals were academic (n = 17), teaching (n = 10) and non-teaching (n = 1) and ranged in annual paediatric ED visits from 2700 to 88,000. Fifty-four percent were male, their median age was 2.4 years (IQR 1.1-4.7). Temperature was measured most frequently (97%), followed by capillary refill (86%), heart rate (73%), saturation (56%) and respiratory rate (51%). In children under five (n = 3505), a complete measurement of the four NICE-recommended vital signs was performed in 48% of patients. Children under 1 year of age, those with an urgent triage level and with respiratory infections had a higher likelihood of undergoing complete measurements. After adjustment for these factors, variability between countries remained. Conclusion: Measuring vital signs in children with fever in the ED occurs with a high degree of practice variation between different European hospitals, and adherence to the NICE recommendation is moderate. Our study is essential as a benchmark for current clinical practice, in order to tailor implementation strategies to different European settings.What is Known:• Vital signs can quickly provide information on disease severity in children in the emergency department (ED), and the NICE guideline for fever in under-fives recommends to routinely measure temperature, heart rate, capillary refill and respiratory rate.• Data regarding measurement of vital signs in routine practice across European EDs is currently unavailable.What is New:• Measurement of vital signs in febrile children is highly variable across European EDs and across patient subgroups, and compliance to the NICE recommendation is <50%.• Children under 1 year of age, those with an urgent triage level and with respiratory infections had a higher likelihood of undergoing complete measurements.

Evaluation of a clinical decision rule to guide antibiotic prescription in children with suspected lower respiratory tract infection in The Netherlands: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Optimising the use of antibiotics is a key component of antibiotic stewardship. Respiratory tract infections (RTIs) are the most common reason for antibiotic prescription in children, even though most of these infections in children under 5 years are viral. This study aims to safely reduce antibiotic prescriptions in children under 5 years with suspected lower RTI at the emergency department (ED), by implementing a clinical decision rule.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

In a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial, we included children aged 1-60 months presenting with fever and cough or dyspnoea to 8 EDs in The Netherlands. The EDs were of varying sizes, from diverse geographic and demographic regions, and of different hospital types (tertiary versus general). In the pre-intervention phase, children received usual care, according to the Dutch and NICE guidelines for febrile children. During the intervention phase, a validated clinical prediction model (Feverkidstool) including clinical characteristics and C-reactive protein (CRP) was implemented as a decision rule guiding antibiotic prescription. The intervention was that antibiotics were withheld in children with a low or intermediate predicted risk of bacterial pneumonia (≤10%, based on Feverkidstool). Co-primary outcomes were antibiotic prescription rate and strategy failure. Strategy failure was defined as secondary antibiotic prescriptions or hospitalisations, persistence of fever or oxygen dependency up to day 7, or complications. Hospitals were randomly allocated to 1 sequence of treatment each, using computer randomisation. The trial could not be blinded. We used multilevel logistic regression to estimate the effect of the intervention, clustered by hospital and adjusted for time period, age, sex, season, ill appearance, and fever duration; predicted risk was included in exploratory analysis. We included 999 children (61% male, median age 17 months [IQR 9 to 30]) between 1 January 2016 and 30 September 2018: 597 during the pre-intervention phase and 402 during the intervention phase. Most children (77%) were referred by a general practitioner, and half of children were hospitalised. Intention-to-treat analyses showed that overall antibiotic prescription was not reduced (30% to 25%, adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.07 [95% CI 0.57 to 2.01, p = 0.75]); strategy failure reduced from 23% to 16% (aOR 0.53 [95% CI 0.32 to 0.88, p = 0.01]). Exploratory analyses showed that the intervention influenced risk groups differently (p < 0.01), resulting in a reduction in antibiotic prescriptions in low/intermediate-risk children (17% to 6%; aOR 0.31 [95% CI 0.12 to 0.81, p = 0.02]) and a non-significant increase in the high-risk group (47% to 59%; aOR 2.28 [95% CI 0.84 to 6.17, p = 0.09]). Two complications occurred during the trial: 1 admission to the intensive care unit during follow-up and 1 pleural empyema at day 10 (both unrelated to the study intervention). Main limitations of the study were missing CRP values in the pre-intervention phase and a prolonged baseline period due to logistical issues, potentially affecting the power of our study.

CONCLUSIONS

In this multicentre ED study, we observed that a clinical decision rule for childhood pneumonia did not reduce overall antibiotic prescription, but that it was non-inferior to usual care. Exploratory analyses showed fewer strategy failures and that fewer antibiotics were prescribed in low/intermediate-risk children, suggesting improved targeting of antibiotics by the decision rule.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Netherlands Trial Register NTR5326.

The performance of the EMS triage (RETTS-p) and the agreement between the field assessment and final hospital diagnosis: a prospective observational study among children < 16 years

Background

The rapid triage and treatment system for paediatrics (RETTS-p) has been used by the emergency medical services (EMS) in the west of Sweden since 2014. The performance of the RETTS-p in the pre-hospital setting and the agreement between the EMS nurse’s field assessment and the hospital diagnosis is unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the RETTS-p in the EMS and the agreement between the EMS field assessment and the hospital diagnosis.

Methods

A prospective observational study was conducted among 454 patients < 16 years of age who were assessed and transported to the PED. Two instruments were used for comparison: 1) Classification of an emergent patient according to predefined criteria as compared to the RETTS-p and 2) Agreement between the EMS nurse’s field assessment and the hospital diagnosis.

Results

Among all children, 11% were identified as having vital signs associated with an increased risk of death and 7% were diagnosed in hospital with a potentially life-threatening condition. Of the children triaged with RETTS-p (85.9%), 149 of 390 children (38.2%) were triaged to RETTS-p red or orange (life-threatening, potentially life-threatening), of which 40 (26.8%) children were classified as emergent. The hospitalised children were triaged with the highest frequency to level yellow (can wait; 41.5%). In children with RETTS-p red or orange, the sensitivity for a defined emergent patient was 66.7%, with a corresponding specificity of 67.0%. The EMS field assessment was in agreement with the final hospital diagnosis in 80% of the cases.

Conclusions

The RETTS-p sensitivity in this study is considered moderate. Two thirds of the children triaged to life threatening or potentially life threatening were later identified as non-emergent. Of those, one in six was discharged from the PED without any intervention. Further, one third of the children were under triaged, the majority were found in the yellow triage level (can wait). The highest proportion of hospitalised patients was found in the yellow triage level. Our result is in agreement with previous studies using other triage instruments. A computerised decision support system might help the EMS triage to increase sensitivity and specificity.