Effects of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in South Africa across different drinker groups and wealth quintiles: a modelling study

The Impact of Raising Alcohol Taxes on Government Tax Revenue: Insights from Five European Countries

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Reducing the affordability of alcoholic beverages by increasing alcohol excise taxation can lead to a reduction in alcohol consumption but the impact on government alcohol excise tax revenue is poorly understood. This study aimed to (a) describe cross-country tax revenue variations and (b) investigate how changes in taxation were related to changes in government tax revenue, using data from Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland.

METHODS

For the population aged 15 years or older, we calculated the annual per capita alcohol excise tax revenue, total tax revenue, gross domestic product and alcohol consumption. In addition to descriptive analyses, joinpoint regressions were performed to identify whether changes in alcohol excise taxation were linked to changes in alcohol excise revenue since 1999.

RESULTS

In 2022, the per capita alcohol excise tax revenue was lowest in Germany (€44.2) and highest in Estonia (€218.4). In all countries, the alcohol excise tax revenue was mostly determined by spirit sales (57-72% of total alcohol tax revenue). During 2010-20, inflation-adjusted per capita alcohol excise tax revenues have declined in Germany (- 22.9%), Poland (- 19.1%) and Estonia (- 4.2%) and increased in Latvia (+ 56.8%) and Lithuania (+ 49.3%). In periods of policy non-action, alcohol consumption and tax revenue showed similar trends, but tax level increases were accompanied by increased revenue and stagnant or decreased consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing alcohol taxation was not linked to decreased but increased government revenue. Policymakers can increase revenue and reduce alcohol consumption and harm by increasing alcohol taxes.

An agent-based model of binge drinking, inequitable gender norms and their contribution to HIV transmission, with application to South Africa

BACKGROUND

Binge drinking, inequitable gender norms and sexual risk behaviour are closely interlinked. This study aims to model the potential effect of alcohol counselling interventions (in men and women) and gender-transformative interventions (in men) as strategies to reduce HIV transmission.

METHODS

We developed an agent-based model of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections, allowing for effects of binge drinking on sexual risk behaviour, and effects of inequitable gender norms (in men) on sexual risk behaviour and binge drinking. The model was applied to South Africa and was calibrated using data from randomized controlled trials of alcohol counselling interventions (n = 9) and gender-transformative interventions (n = 4) in sub-Saharan Africa. The model was also calibrated to South African data on alcohol consumption and acceptance of inequitable gender norms. Binge drinking was defined as five or more drinks on a single day, in the last month.

RESULTS

Binge drinking is estimated to be highly prevalent in South Africa (54% in men and 35% in women, in 2021), and over the 2000-2021 period 54% (95% CI: 34-74%) of new HIV infections occurred in binge drinkers. Binge drinking accounted for 6.8% of new HIV infections (0.0-32.1%) over the same period, which was mediated mainly by an effect of binge drinking in women on engaging in casual sex. Inequitable gender norms accounted for 17.5% of incident HIV infections (0.0-68.3%), which was mediated mainly by an effect of inequitable gender norms on male partner concurrency. A multi-session alcohol counselling intervention that reaches all binge drinkers would reduce HIV incidence by 1.2% (0.0-2.5%) over a 5-year period, while a community-based gender-transformative intervention would reduce incidence by 3.2% (0.8-7.2%) or by 7.3% (0.6-21.2%) if there was no waning of intervention impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Although binge drinking and inequitable gender norms contribute substantially to HIV transmission in South Africa, recently-trialled alcohol counselling and gender-transformative interventions are likely to have only modest effects on HIV incidence. Further innovation in developing locally-relevant interventions to address binge drinking and inequitable gender norms is needed.

The impact of alcohol minimum unit pricing on people with experience of homelessness: Qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Alcohol Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) was introduced in Scotland in May 2018. Existing evidence suggests MUP can reduce alcohol consumption in the general population, but there is little research about its impact on vulnerable groups. This qualitative study explored experiences of MUP among people with experience of homelessness.

METHODS

We conducted qualitative semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of 46 people with current or recent experience of homelessness who were current drinkers when MUP was introduced. Participants (30 men and 16 women) were aged 21 to 73 years. Interviews focused on views and experiences of MUP. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

People with experience of homelessness were aware of MUP but it was accorded low priority in their hierarchy of concerns. Reported impacts varied. Some participants reduced their drinking, or moved away from drinking strong white cider, in line with policy intentions. Others were unaffected because the cost of their preferred drink (usually wine, vodka or beer) did not change substantially. A minority reported increased involvement in begging. Wider personal, relational and social factors also played an important role in responses to MUP.

CONCLUSION

This is the first qualitative study to provide a detailed exploration of the impact of MUP among people with experience of homelessness. Our findings suggest that MUP worked as intended for some people with experience of homelessness, while a minority reported negative consequences. Our findings are of international significance to policymakers, emphasising the need to consider the impact of population level health policies on marginalised groups and the wider contextual factors that affect responses to policies within these groups. It is important to invest further in secure housing and appropriate support services and to implement and evaluate harm reduction initiatives such as managed alcohol programmes.

Stakeholder Engagement in the Development of Public Health Economic Models: An Application to Modelling of Minimum Unit Pricing of Alcohol in South Africa

BACKGROUND

Health economic models aim to provide decision makers with information that is contextually relevant, understandable and credible. This requires ongoing engagement throughout the research project between the modeller and end-users.

OBJECTIVES

We aim to reflect on how a public health economic model of minimum unit pricing of alcohol in South Africa benefited from, and was shaped by, stakeholders. We outline how engagement activities were used during the development, validation and communication phases of the research with input gathered at each stage to inform future priorities.

METHODS

A stakeholder mapping exercise was completed to identify stakeholders with the required knowledge, for example academics with expertise in modelling alcohol harm in South Africa, members of civil society organisations with lived experience of informal alcohol outlets, and policy professionals working at the forefront of alcohol policy development in South Africa. The stakeholder engagement consisted of four phases: developing a detailed understanding of the local policy context; co-producing model focus and structure; scrutinising model development and communication planning; and communicating research evidence to end-users. The first phase utilised 12 individual semi-structured interviews. Phases two to four centred around face-to-face workshops (two online) with both individual and group-based exercises employed to achieve required outputs.

RESULTS

Phase one provided key learning on policy context and initiated working relationships. Phases two to four provided a conceptualisation of the problem of alcohol harm in South Africa and the choice of policy to model. Stakeholders chose population subgroups of interest and advised on both economic and health outcomes. They provided input on critical assumptions, data sources, priorities for future work, and communication strategies. The final workshop provided a platform to communicate the results of the model to a largely policy audience. These activities led to the production of highly contextualised research methods and findings that were able to be communicated widely beyond academia.

CONCLUSIONS

Our programme of stakeholder engagement was fully integrated into the research programme. It resulted in a number of benefits including creating positive working relationships, guiding modelling decisions, tailoring the research to the context, and providing ongoing opportunities for communication.

Impact of minimum unit pricing on alcohol-related hospital outcomes: systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To determine the impact of minimum unit pricing (MUP) on the primary outcome of alcohol-related hospitalisation, and secondary outcomes of length of stay, hospital mortality and alcohol-related liver disease in hospital.

DESIGN

Databases MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, APA Psycinfo, CINAHL Plus and Cochrane Reviews were searched from 1 January 2011 to 11 November 2022. Inclusion criteria were studies evaluating the impact of minimum pricing policies, and we excluded non-minimum pricing policies or studies without alcohol-related hospital outcomes. The Effective Public Health Practice Project tool was used to assess risk of bias, and the Bradford Hill Criteria were used to infer causality for outcome measures.

SETTING

MUP sets a legally required floor price per unit of alcohol and is estimated to reduce alcohol-attributable healthcare burden.

PARTICIPANT

All studies meeting inclusion criteria from any country INTERVENTION: Minimum pricing policy of alcohol PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: RESULTS: 22 studies met inclusion criteria; 6 natural experiments and 16 modelling studies. Countries included Australia, Canada, England, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Scotland, South Africa and Wales. Modelling studies estimated that MUP could reduce alcohol-related admissions by 3%-10% annually and the majority of real-world studies demonstrated that acute alcohol-related admissions responded immediately and reduced by 2%-9%, and chronic alcohol-related admissions lagged by 2-3 years and reduced by 4%-9% annually. Minimum pricing could target the heaviest consumers from the most deprived groups who tend to be at greatest risk of alcohol harms, and in so doing has the potential to reduce health inequalities. Using the Bradford Hill Criteria, we inferred a 'moderate-to-strong' causal link that MUP could reduce alcohol-related hospitalisation.

CONCLUSIONS

Natural studies were consistent with minimum pricing modelling studies and showed that this policy could reduce alcohol-related hospitalisation and health inequalities.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42021274023.

Alcohol minimum unit pricing and people experiencing homelessness: A qualitative study of stakeholders' perspectives and experiences

INTRODUCTION

Minimum unit pricing (MUP) may reduce harmful drinking in the general population, but there is little evidence regarding its impact on marginalised groups. Our study is the first to explore the perceptions of MUP among stakeholders working with people experiencing homelessness following its introduction in Scotland in May 2018.

METHODS

Qualitative semi-structured interviews were conducted with 41 professional stakeholders from statutory and third sector organisations across Scotland. We explored their views on MUP and its impact on people experiencing homelessness, service provision and implications for policy. Data were analysed using thematic analysis.

RESULTS

Participants suggested that the introduction of MUP in Scotland had negligible if any discernible impact on people experiencing homelessness and services that support them. Most service providers felt insufficiently informed about MUP prior to its implementation. Participants reported that where consequences for these populations were evident, they were primarily anticipated although some groups were negatively affected. People experiencing homelessness have complex needs in addition to alcohol addiction, and changes in the way services work need to be considered in future MUP-related discussions.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that despite initial concerns about potential unintended consequences of MUP, many of these did not materialise to the levels anticipated. As a population-level health policy, MUP is likely to have little beneficial impact on people experiencing homelessness without the provision of support to address their alcohol use and complex needs. The additional needs of certain groups (e.g., people with no recourse to public funds) need to be considered.

Did COVID-19-Related Alcohol Sales Restrictions Reduce Alcohol Consumption? Findings from a National Online Survey in South Africa

BACKGROUND

South Africa has a high prevalence of heavy episodic drinking (HED). Due to the high levels of alcohol misuse and violence, public hospital intensive care units were often overrun during the COVID-19 pandemic. This research investigated alcohol intake behaviour change during differing levels of lockdown restrictions, which included bans on alcohol sales.

METHODS

A self-reported Facebook survey ran from July to November 2020. The questions included socio-demographics, income, alcohol intake, purchasing behaviour, and reasoning. Chi-square tests/Fisher's exact test for categorical data, Student's t-test for normal continuous data, and the Mann-Whitney U test for non-normal data were applied. Multiple logistic regression was run for HED versus moderate drinkers.

RESULTS

A total of 798 participants took part in the survey, of which 68.4% were female. Nearly 50% of participants fell into the HED category and the majority bought alcohol illegally during restrictions. HED respondents who drank more alcohol than usual during restrictions reported that they felt stressed, needed to relax, and were bored.

CONCLUSIONS

Policies intended to increase the pricing of alcohol may have the potential to reduce alcohol intake. Reducing stress and anxiety may be key to curtailing HED during emergency situations.

Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa

Introduction

South Africa experiences significant levels of alcohol-related harm. Recent research suggests minimum unit pricing (MUP) for alcohol would be an effective policy, but high levels of income inequality raise concerns about equity impacts. This paper quantifies the equity impact of MUP on household health and finances in rich and poor drinkers in South Africa.

Methods

We draw from extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and an epidemiological policy appraisal model of MUP for South Africa to simulate the equity impact of a ZAR 10 MUP over a 20-year time horizon. We estimate the impact across wealth quintiles on: (i) alcohol consumption and expenditures; (ii) mortality; (iii) government healthcare cost savings; (iv) reductions in cases of catastrophic health expenditures (CHE) and household savings linked to reduced health-related workplace absence.

Results

We estimate MUP would reduce consumption more among the poorest than the richest drinkers. Expenditure would increase by ZAR 353 000 million (1 US$=13.2 ZAR), the poorest contributing 13% and the richest 28% of the increase, although this remains regressive compared with mean income. Of the 22 600 deaths averted, 56% accrue to the bottom two quintiles; government healthcare cost savings would be substantial (ZAR 3.9 billion). Cases of CHE averted would be 564 700, 46% among the poorest two quintiles. Indirect cost savings amount to ZAR 51.1 billion.

Conclusions

A MUP policy in South Africa has the potential to reduce harm and health inequality. Fiscal policies for population health require structured policy appraisal, accounting for the totality of effects using mathematical models in association with ECEA methodology.