A system-wide approach to explaining variation in potentially avoidable emergency admissions: national ecological study

Impact of transfer from non-acute care centers on clinical outcomes in patients with congestive heart failure

Study objective

To compare the clinical outcomes in patients with congestive heart failure who are transferred to an acute care hospital from non-acute care centers with patients who are admitted as regular hospital admissions.

Design

This was a retrospective cohort study.

Setting

We utilized the National Inpatient Sample database from 2016 to 2018.

Participants

Our cohort consisted of hospitalized patients who were at least 18 years old with a primary diagnosis of congestive heart failure.

Interventions

These patients were either transferred from non-acute centers or presented as regular hospital admissions.

Main outcome measurements

We matched patients in a greedy nearest neighbor 1:1 model with caliper set at 0.2. Multivariable logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, race and comorbidities, was used to compare mortality in our matched cohort.

Results

This study included 35,010 non-acute care transfers and 951,189 regularly admitted patients. Compared to patients who were not transferred, non-acute care transfers were older, predominantly female, White and less racially diverse. After matching, there were 6689 patients in each cohort. When adjusted for age, race, sex and comorbidities, non-acute care transfers with congestive heart failure had 2.20 times higher odds of suffering in-hospital mortality compared to regular, non-transferred admissions (aOR 2.20, 95 % CI: 1.85-2.61; p < 0.001).

Conclusion

Our findings illustrate that non-acute care transfers are a vulnerable population that require additional medical support in the acute care setting.

Evidence synthesis, digital scribes, and translational challenges for artificial intelligence in healthcare

Healthcare has well-known challenges with safety, quality, and effectiveness, and many see artificial intelligence (AI) as essential to any solution. Emerging applications include the automated synthesis of best-practice research evidence including systematic reviews, which would ultimately see all clinical trial data published in a computational form for immediate synthesis. Digital scribes embed themselves in the process of care to detect, record, and summarize events and conversations for the electronic record. However, three persistent translational challenges must be addressed before AI is widely deployed. First, little effort is spent replicating AI trials, exposing patients to risks of methodological error and biases. Next, there is little reporting of patient harms from trials. Finally, AI built using machine learning may perform less effectively in different clinical settings.

Risk Factors Associated with Preventable Hospitalisation among Rural Community-Dwelling Patients: A Systematic Review

Potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPHs) are common and increase the burden on already stretched healthcare services. Increasingly, psychosocial factors have been recognised as contributing to PPHs and these may be mitigated through greater attention to social capital. This systematic review investigates the factors associated with PPHs within rural populations. The review was designed, conducted, and reported according to PRISMA guidelines and registered with Prospero (ID: CRD42020152194). Four databases were systematically searched, and all potentially relevant papers were screened at the title/abstract level, followed by full-text review by at least two reviewers. Papers published between 2000-2022 were included. Quality assessment was conducted using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and CASP Qualitative checklist. Of the thirteen papers included, eight were quantitative/descriptive and five were qualitative studies. All were from either Australia or the USA. Access to primary healthcare was frequently identified as a determinant of PPH. Socioeconomic, psychosocial, and geographical factors were commonly identified in the qualitative studies. This systematic review highlights the inherent attributes of rural populations that predispose them to PPHs. Equal importance should be given to supply/system factors that restrict access and patient-level factors that influence the ability and capacity of rural communities to receive appropriate primary healthcare.

Quantifying the impact of addressing data challenges in prediction of length of stay

BACKGROUND

Prediction of length of stay (LOS) at admission time can provide physicians and nurses insight into the illness severity of patients and aid them in avoiding adverse events and clinical deterioration. It also assists hospitals with more effectively managing their resources and manpower.

METHODS

In this field of research, there are some important challenges, such as missing values and LOS data skewness. Moreover, various studies use a binary classification which puts a wide range of patients with different conditions into one category. To address these shortcomings, first multivariate imputation techniques are applied to fill incomplete records, then two proper resampling techniques, namely Borderline-SMOTE and SMOGN, are applied to address data skewness in the classification and regression domains, respectively. Finally, machine learning (ML) techniques including neural networks, extreme gradient boosting, random forest, support vector machine, and decision tree are implemented for both approaches to predict LOS of patients admitted to the Emergency Department of Odense University Hospital between June 2018 and April 2019. The ML models are developed based on data obtained from patients at admission time, including pulse rate, arterial blood oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, systolic blood pressure, triage category, arrival ICD-10 codes, age, and gender.

RESULTS

The performance of predictive models before and after addressing missing values and data skewness is evaluated using four evaluation metrics namely receiver operating characteristic, area under the curve (AUC), R-squared score (R2), and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE). Results show that the performance of predictive models is improved on average by 15.75% for AUC, 32.19% for R2 score, and 11.32% for NRMSE after addressing the mentioned challenges. Moreover, our results indicate that there is a relationship between the missing values rate, data skewness, and illness severity of patients, so it is clinically essential to take incomplete records of patients into account and apply proper solutions for interpolation of missing values.

CONCLUSION

We propose a new method comprised of three stages: missing values imputation, data skewness handling, and building predictive models based on classification and regression approaches. Our results indicated that addressing these challenges in a proper way enhanced the performance of models significantly, which led to a more valid prediction of LOS.

Predicting Future Geographic Hotspots of Potentially Preventable Hospitalisations Using All Subset Model Selection and Repeated K-Fold Cross-Validation

Long-term future prediction of geographic areas with high rates of potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPHs) among residents, or "hotspots", is critical to ensure the effective location of place-based health service interventions. This is because such interventions are typically expensive and take time to develop, implement, and take effect, and hotspots often regress to the mean. Using spatially aggregated, longitudinal administrative health data, we introduce a method to make such predictions. The proposed method combines all subset model selection with a novel formulation of repeated k-fold cross-validation in developing optimal models. We illustrate its application predicting three-year future hotspots for four PPHs in an Australian context: type II diabetes mellitus, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and "high risk foot". In these examples, optimal models are selected through maximising positive predictive value while maintaining sensitivity above a user-specified minimum threshold. We compare the model's performance to that of two alternative methods commonly used in practice, i.e., prediction of future hotspots based on either: (i) current hotspots, or (ii) past persistent hotspots. In doing so, we demonstrate favourable performance of our method, including with respect to its ability to flexibly optimise various different metrics. Accordingly, we suggest that our method might effectively be used to assist health planners predict excess future demand of health services and prioritise placement of interventions. Furthermore, it could be used to predict future hotspots of non-health events, e.g., in criminology.

Early emergency readmission frequency as an indicator of short-, medium- and long-term mortality post-discharge from hospital

Frequent emergency readmissions, an indicator of quality of care, has been rising in England but the underlying reasons remain unclear. We examined the association of early readmissions with subsequent mortality in adults, taking into account the underlying presenting diagnoses and hospital length of stay (LOS). Data of alive-discharge episodes were prospectively collected between 01/04/2017 and 31/03/2019 in an National Health Service hospital, comprising 32,270 patients (46.1% men) aged 18-107 years (mean = 64.0, ± SD = 20.5 years). The associations of readmission frequency within 28 days of discharge and mortality within 30 days and 6 months of hospital discharge, and over a 2-year period were evaluated, adjusted for presenting diagnoses, LOS, age and sex during the first admission. Analysis of all patients 18-107 years (reference: no readmission) showed mortality within 30 days was increased for 1 readmission: event rate = 9.2%, odds ratio (OR) = 3.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.9-4.0), and ≥ 2 readmissions: event rate = 10.0%, OR = 2.6 (95%CI = 2.0-3.3), and within 6 months for 1 readmission: event rate = 19.6%, OR = 3.0 (95%CI = 2.7-3.4), and ≥ 2 readmissions: event rate = 27.4%, OR = 3.4 (95%CI = 2.9-4.0), and over a 2-year period for 1 readmission: event rate = 25.5%, hazard ratio = 2.2 (95%CI = 2.0-2.4), and ≥ 2 readmissions: event rate = 36.1%, hazard ratio = 2.5 (95%CI = 2.2-2.8). Within the age groups 18-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79 and ≥ 80 years, readmissions were also associated with increased risk of mortality within 3 months and 6 months of discharge, and over 2-year period. In conclusion, early hospital readmission predicts short-, medium- and long-term mortality post-discharge from hospital in adults aged 18-107 years, independent of underlying presenting conditions, LOS, age and sex. Further research focussing on safe discharge and follow-up patient care may help reduce preventable readmissions and post-discharge mortality.

Non-specific pain and 30-day readmission in acute coronary syndromes: findings from the TRACE-CORE prospective cohort

Background

Patients with acute coronary syndromes often experience non-specific (generic) pain after hospital discharge. However, evidence about the association between post-discharge non-specific pain and rehospitalization remains limited.

Methods

We analyzed data from the Transitions, Risks, and Actions in Coronary Events Center for Outcomes Research and Education (TRACE-CORE) prospective cohort. TRACE-CORE followed patients with acute coronary syndromes for 24 months post-discharge from the index hospitalization, collected patient-reported generic pain (using SF-36) and chest pain (using the Seattle Angina Questionnaire) and rehospitalization events. We assessed the association between generic pain and 30-day rehospitalization using multivariable logistic regression (N = 787). We also examined the associations among patient-reported pain, pain documentation identified by natural language processing (NLP) from electronic health record (EHR) notes, and the outcome.

Results

Patients were 62 years old (SD = 11.4), with 5.1% Black or Hispanic individuals and 29.9% women. Within 30 days post-discharge, 87 (11.1%) patients were re-hospitalized. Patient-reported mild-to-moderate pain, without EHR documentation, was associated with 30-day rehospitalization (odds ratio [OR]: 2.03, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–3.62, reference: no pain) after adjusting for baseline characteristics; while patient-reported mild-to-moderate pain with EHR documentation (presumably addressed) was not (OR: 1.23, 95% CI: 0.52–2.90). Severe pain was also associated with 30-day rehospitalization (OR: 3.16, 95% CI: 1.32–7.54), even after further adjusting for chest pain (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.06–6.35).

Conclusions

Patient-reported post-discharge generic pain was positively associated with 30-day rehospitalization. Future studies should further disentangle the impact of cardiac and non-cardiac pain on rehospitalization and develop strategies to support the timely management of post-discharge pain by healthcare providers.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-021-02195-z.

Geographical variation of emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in older adults in Ireland 2012-2016

OBJECTIVE

Ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions are those for which intensified primary care management could potentially prevent emergency admissions. This study aimed to quantify geographical variation in emergency admissions with ACS conditions in older adults and explore factors influencing variation.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional study.

SETTING

34 public hospitals in the Ireland.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged ≥65 years hospitalised for seven ACS conditions between 2012 and 2016 (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes, angina, pyelonephritis/urinary tract infections (UTIs), dehydration and pneumonia).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Age and sex standardised emergency admission rates (SARs) per 1000 older adults.

ANALYSIS

Age and sex SARs were calculated for 21 geographical areas. Extremal quotients and systematic components of variance (SCV) quantified variation. Spatial regression analyses was conducted for SARs with unemployment, urban population proportion, hospital turnover, supply of general practitioners (GPs), and supply of hospital-based specialists as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Over time, an increase in UTI/pyelonephritis SARs was seen while SARs for angina and CHF decreased. Geographic variation was moderate overall and high for dehydration and angina (SCV=11.7-50.0). For all conditions combined, multivariable analysis showed lower urban population (adjusted coefficient: -2.2 (-3.4 to -0.9, p<0.01)), lower GP supply (adjusted coefficient: -5.5 (-8.2 to -2.9, p<0.01)) and higher geriatrician supply (adjusted coefficient: 3.7 (0.5 to 6.9, p=0.02)) were associated with higher SARs.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should evaluate methods of preventing admissions for ACS conditions among older adults, including how resources are allocated at a local level.

Factors explaining variation in recommended care pathways following hospital-presenting self-harm: a multilevel national registry study

BACKGROUND

People who present to hospital following self-harm are at high risk of suicide. Despite this, there are considerable variations in the management of this group across hospitals and the factors influencing such variations are not well understood.

AIMS

The aim of this study was to identify the specific hospital and individual factors associated with care pathways following hospital-presenting self-harm.

METHOD

Data on presentations to hospitals by those aged 18 years and over were obtained from the National Self-Harm Registry Ireland for 2017 and 2018. Factors associated with four common outcomes following self-harm (self-discharge, medical and psychiatric admission and psychosocial assessment before discharge) were examined using multilevel Poisson regression models.

RESULTS

Care pathways following self-harm varied across hospitals and were influenced by both hospital and individual factors. Individual factors were primarily associated with self-discharge (including male gender, younger age and alcohol involvement), medical admission (older age, drug overdose as a sole method and ambulance presentations) and psychiatric admission (male gender, methods associated with greater lethality and older age). The hospital admission rate for self-harm was the only factor associated with all outcomes examined. The availability of psychiatric in-patient facilities and specialist mental health staff contributed to variation in psychiatric admissions and psychosocial assessments prior to discharge. Hospital factors explained the majority of observed variation in the provision of psychosocial assessments.

CONCLUSIONS

Characteristics of the presenting hospital and hospital admission rates influence the recommended care pathways following self-harm. Provision of onsite mental health facilities and specialist mental health staff has a strong impact on psychiatric care of these patients.

Preventable emergency admissions of older adults: an observational mixed-method study of rates, associative factors and underlying causes in two Dutch hospitals

OBJECTIVE

Older adults are hospitalised from the emergency department (ED) without potentially needing hospital care. Knowledge about rates, associative factors and causes of these preventable emergency admissions (PEAs) is limited. This study aimed to determine the rates, associative factors and causes for PEAs of older adults.

DESIGN

A mixed-method observational study.

SETTING

The EDs of two Dutch hospitals.

PARTICIPANTS

492 patients aged >70 years and hospitalised from the ED.

MEASUREMENTS

Quantitative data were retrospectively extracted from the electronical medical record over a 1-month period. Admissions were classified (non)preventable based on a standardised approach. Univariate and multivariate multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to identify possible associations between PEAs and demographic, clinical and care process factors. Qualitative data were prospectively collected by email and telephone interviews and analysed thematically to explore hospital physician's perceived causes for the identified PEAs.

RESULTS

Of the 492 included cases, 86 (17.5%) were classified as PEA. Patients with a higher age (adjusted OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.08; p=0.04), a low urgency classification (adjusted OR 1.89, 95% CI 1.14 to 3.15; p=0.01), and attending the ED in the weekend (adjusted OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.37; p<0.01) were associated with an increased likelihood of a PEA. 49 physicians were interviewed by telephone and email. Perceived causes for PEAs were related to patient's attitudes (eg, postponement of medical care at home), provider's attitudes (eg, deciding for admission after family pressure), health system deficiencies (eg, limited access to community services during out-of-hours and delayed access to inpatient diagnostic resources) and poor communication between primary care and hospital professionals about patient treatment preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings contribute to existing evidence that many emergency admissions of older adults are preventable, thereby indicating a possible source of unnecessary expensive, and potentially harmful, hospital care.

Patterns of emergency admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions: a spatial cross-sectional analysis of observational data

OBJECTIVES

To examine the spatial and temporal patterns of English general practices' emergency admissions for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions (ACSCs).

DESIGN

Observational study of practice level annual hospital emergency admissions data for ACSCs for all English practices from 2004-2017.

PARTICIPANTS

All patients with an emergency admission to a National Health Service hospital in England who were registered with an English general practice.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Practice level age and gender indirectly standardised ratios (ISARs) for emergency admissions for ACSC.

RESULTS

In 2017, 41.8% of the total variation in ISARs across practices was between the 207 Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs) (the administrative unit for general practices) and 58.2% was across practices within CCGs. ACSC ISARs increased by 4.7% between 2004 and 2017, while those for conditions incentivised by the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) fell by 20%. Practice ISARs are persistent: practices with high rates in 2004 also had high rates in 2017. Standardising by deprivation as well as age and gender reduced the coefficient of variation of practice ISARs in 2017 by 22%.

CONCLUSIONS

There is persistent spatial pattern of emergency admissions for ACSC across England both within and across CCGs. We illustrate the reduction in ACSCs emergency admissions across the study period for conditions incentivised by the QOF but find that this was not accompanied by a reduction in variation in these admissions across practices. The observed spatial pattern persists when admission rates are standardised by deprivation. The persistence of spatial clusters of high emergency admissions for ACSCs within and across CCG boundaries suggests that policies to reduce potentially unwarranted variation should be targeted at practice level.

Neighbourhood unemployment and other socio-demographic predictors of emergency hospitalisation for infectious intestinal disease in England: A longitudinal ecological study

•

We examined trends in infectious intestinal disease (IID) hospitalisations in England.

•

Overall IID admission rates for children and older adults declined between 2012 & 2017.

•

Increasing unemployment was associated with increasing IID admission rates.

•

Healthcare access, underlying morbidity and ethnicity were also associated with IID rates.

•

Policies should address inequalities in emergency IID hospitalisations.

Background

Previous studies have observed that infectious intestinal disease (IID) related hospital admissions are higher in more deprived neighbourhoods. These studies have mainly focused on paediatric populations and are cross-sectional in nature. This study examines recent trends in emergency IID admission rates, and uses longitudinal methods to investigate the effects of unemployment (as a time varying measure of neighbourhood deprivation) and other socio-demographic characteristics on IID admissions for adults and children in England.

Methods

A longitudinal ecological analysis was performed using Hospital Episode Statistics on emergency hospitalisations for IID, collected over the time period 2012–17 across England. Analysis was conducted at the neighbourhood (Lower-layer Super Output Area) level for three age groups (0–14; 15–64; 65+ years). Mixed-effect Poisson regression models were used to assess the relationship between trends in neighbourhood unemployment and emergency IID admission rates, whilst controlling for measures of primary and secondary care access, underlying morbidity and the ethnic composition of each neighbourhood.

Results

From 2012–17, declining trends in emergency IID admission rates were observed for children and older adults overall, while rates increased for some sub-groups in the population. Each 1 percentage point increase in unemployment was associated with a 6.3, 2.4 and 4% increase in the rate of IID admissions per year for children [IRR=1.06, 95%CI 1.06–1.07], adults [IRR=1.02, 95%CI 1.02–1.03] and older adults [IRR=1.04, 95%CI 1.036–1.043], respectively. Increases in poor primary care access, the percentage of people from a Pakistani ethnic background, and the prevalence of long-term health problems, in a neighbourhood, were also associated with increases in IID admission rates.

Conclusions

Increasing trends in neighbourhood deprivation, as measured by unemployment, were associated with increases in emergency IID admission rates for children and adults in England, despite controlling for measures of healthcare access, underlying morbidity and ethnicity. Research is needed to improve understanding of the mechanisms that explain these inequalities, so that effective policies can be developed to reduce the higher emergency IID admission rates experienced by more disadvantaged communities.

Evaluation of Hospitalizations Preventable with Idealized Outpatient Care and Continuity of Care

BACKGROUND

Unnecessary hospitalizations may pose the risk of iatrogenic complications, suboptimal patient experience, and increased cost. Administrative data lack granularity to understand the proportion and causes of hospitalizations preventable through optimizing care continuum (HPOCC). We aim to identify the incidence and causes of HPOCC through clinician-adjudicated chart review.

METHODS

A retrospective review was performed for inpatient admissions from the emergency department (ED) over 1 week. Each admission was reviewed by a clinician to determine whether it is an HPOCC defined as not requiring inpatient care with the assumption of idealized outpatient care and social support.

RESULTS

Of the 515 patients admitted from the ED, 31 (6.0%) patients were judged to have had an HPOCC. Causes of HPOCC include urgent diagnostics (9, 29.0%), unnecessary transfer from a long-term facility (7, 23.0%), needing IV therapy (5, 16.0%), benign incidental finding (5, 16.0%), diagnostic uncertainty in complex chronic illness (3, 10.0%), and lack of access to care for disposition (2, 6.0%).

CONCLUSION

Hospitalizations preventable through optimizing care continuum account for about 1 in every 15 hospitalizations in an urban academic medical center. The need for urgent diagnostics accounts for a plurality of HPOCC and could be an important target for quality improvement.

The drivers and impact of emergency care reconfiguration in Ireland: Results from a large mixed-methods research programme

Ireland, like many countries, has reconfigured emergency care in recent years towards a more centralised model. Although centralisation is presented as 'evidence-based', the relevance of this evidence is challenged by groups which hold values beyond those implicit in the literature. The Study of the Impact of Reconfiguration on Emergency and Urgent Care Networks (SIREN) programme was funded to evaluate the development and performance of emergency and urgent care systems in Ireland. SIREN found that the drivers of reconfiguration in Ireland are based on safety and efficiency claims which are highly contestable. Reconfiguration was not associated with improvements in safety or efficiency and may have exacerbated the growing capacity challenges for acute hospitals. These findings are consistent with UK research. Our study adds to an emerging literature on the interaction between a narrow technocratic approach to health system planning and the perspectives of the public and patients.

A multistage mixed methods study protocol to evaluate the implementation and impact of a reconfiguration of acute medicine in Ireland's hospitals

BACKGROUND

To address deficits in the delivery of acute services in Ireland, the National Acute Medicine Programme (NAMP) was established in 2010 to optimise the management of acutely ill medical patients in the hospital setting, and to ensure their supported discharge to primary and community-based care. NAMP aims to reduce inappropriate hospital admissions, reduce length of hospital stay and ensure patients receive timely treatment in the most appropriate setting. It does so primarily via the development of Acute Medical Assessment Units (AMAUs) for the rapid assessment and management of medical patients presenting to hospitals, as well as streamlining the care of those admitted for further care. This study will examine the impact of this programme on patient care and identify the factors influencing its implementation and operation.

METHODS

We will use a multistage mixed methods evaluation with an explanatory sequential design. Firstly, we will develop a logic model to describe the programme's outcomes, its components and the mechanisms of change by which it expects to achieve these outcomes. Then we will assess implementation by measuring utilisation of the Units and comparing the organisational functions implemented to that recommended by the NAMP model of care. Using comparative case study research, we will identify the factors which have influenced the programme's implementation and its operation using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research to guide data collection and analysis. This will be followed by an estimation of the impact of the programme on reducing overnight emergency admissions for potentially avoidable medical conditions, and reducing length of hospital stay of acute medical patients. Lastly, data from each stage will be integrated to examine how the programme's outcomes can be explained by the level of implementation.

DISCUSSION

This formative evaluation will enable us to examine whether the NAMP is improving patient care and importantly draw conclusions on how it is doing so. It will identify the factors that contribute to how well the programme is being implemented in the real-world. Lessons learnt will be instrumental in sustaining this programme as well as planning, implementing, and assessing other transformative programmes, especially in the acute care setting.

Working Together to Connect Care: a metropolitan tertiary emergency department and community care program

Objective Frequent attendance by people to an emergency department (ED) is a global concern. A collaborative partnership between an ED and the primary and community healthcare sectors has the potential to improve care for the person who frequently attends the ED. The aims of the Working Together to Connect Care program are to decrease the number of presentations by providing focused community support and to integrate all healthcare services with the goal of achieving positive, patient-centred and directed outcomes. Methods A retrospective analysis of ED data for 2014 and 2015 was used to ascertain the characteristics of the potential program cohort. The definition used to identify a 'frequent attendee' was more than four presentations to an ED in 1 month. This analysis was used to develop the processes now known as the Working Together to Connect Care program. This program includes participant identification by applying the definition, flagging of potential participants in the ED IT system, case review and referral to community services by ED staff, case conferencing facilitated within the ED and individualised, patient centred case management provided by government and non-government community services. Results Two months after the date of commencement of the Working Together to Connect Care program there are 31 active participants in the program: 10 are on the Mental Health pathway, and one is on the No Consent pathway. On average there are three people recruited to the program every week. The establishment of a new program for supporting frequent attendees of an ED has had its challenges. Identifying systems that support people in their community has been an early positive outcome of this project. Conclusion It is expected that data regarding the number of ED presentations, potential fiscal savings and client outcomes will be available in 2017. What is known about the topic? Frequent attendance at EDs is a global issue and although the number of 'super users' is small compared with non-frequent users, the presentations are high. People in the frequent attendee group will often seek care from multiple EDs for, in the main, mental health issues and substance abuse. Furthermore, frequent ED users are vulnerable and experience higher mortality, hospital admissions and out-patient visits than non-frequent users. Aggressive and assertive outreach, intense coordination of services by integrated care teams, and the need for non-medical resources, such as supportive housing, have positive outcomes for this group of people. What does this paper add? This study uses international research findings in an Australian setting to provide a testing of the generalisability of an assertive and collaborative ED and community case management approach for supporting people who frequent a metropolitan ED. What are the implications for practitioners? The chronicling of a process undertaken to affect change in a health care setting supports practitioners when developing processes for this cohort across different ED contexts.

General practitioners' and out-of-hours doctors' role as gatekeeper in emergency admissions to somatic hospitals in Norway: registry-based observational study

Background

Primary care doctors have a gatekeeper function in many healthcare systems, and strategies to reduce emergency hospital admissions often focus on general practitioners’ (GPs’) and out-of-hours (OOH) doctors’ role. The aim of the present study was to investigate these doctors’ role in emergency admissions to somatic hospitals in the Norwegian public healthcare system, where GPs and OOH doctors have a distinct gatekeeper function.

Methods

A cross-sectional analysis was performed by linking data from the Norwegian Patient Registry (NPR) and the physicians’ claims database. The referring doctor was defined as the physician who had sent a claim for a consultation with the patient within 24 h prior to an emergency admission. If there was no claim registered prior to hospital arrival, the admission was defined as direct, representing admissions from ambulance services, referrals from nursing home doctors, and admissions initiated by in-hospital doctors.

Results

In 2014 there were 497,587 emergency admissions to somatic hospitals in Norway after excluding birth related conditions. Direct admissions were most frequent (43%), 31% were referred by OOH doctors, 25% were referred by GPs, whereas only 2% were referred from outpatient clinics or private specialists with public contract. Direct admissions were more common in central areas (52%), here GPs’ referrals constituted only 16%. The prehospital paths varied with the hospital discharge diagnosis. For anaemias, 46–49% were referred by GPs, for acute appendicitis and mental/alcohol related disorders 52 and 49% were referred by OOH doctors, respectively. For both malignant neoplasms and cardiac arrest 63% were direct admissions.

Conclusions

GPs or OOH doctors referred many emergencies to somatic hospitals, and for some clinical conditions GPs’ and OOH doctors’ gatekeeping role was substantial. However, a significant proportion of the emergency admissions was direct, and this reduces the impact of the GPs’ and OOH doctors’ gatekeeper roles, even in a strict gatekeeping system.

Hospitalization of the aged due to stroke: An ecological perspective

Contextual variables have been associated with the incidence of stroke, but their association with hospitalization of older persons remains unclear. This study evaluated the association between social context variables and hospitalization of 60 years old and older patients due to stroke in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. An ecological cross-sectional study was conducted, with secondary data from the Brazilian Hospital Information System from 2006 to 2014. Hospitalization rates were calculated and categorized by tertiles. For subsequent analyzes, the polar extremes method was used to select the groups with extremes values. After that, Student t or Mann-Whitney tests were used to compare the contextual variables and the hospitalization rates clusters. Then, a Binary Logistic Regression analysis was used to assess the association between hospitalization rates clusters and the contextual variables. The total number of hospitalizations was 82 796; the hospitalization rate varied in extremes groups from the lowest (3.49) to the highest (11.95) (p<0.001). The highest rates group was positively associated with the proportion of elderly (p<0.001), the illiteracy rate of the aged (p = 0.01), primary care coverage (p<0.001) and ambulatory care for hypertension and diabetes, while the income ratio showed negative association with the highest rates of hospitalization (p = 0.01). In the multivariate analysis, only the proportion of elderly (OR = 1.55; 95%CI 1.07–2.25), primary care coverage (OR = 1.05; 95%CI 1.01–1.11) and income ratio (OR = 0.82; 95%CI 0.67–0.99) maintained the association. In conclusion, contextual variables in the three dimensions studied were associated with the rate of hospitalization of aged due to stroke in the municipalities in Rio de Janeiro State. Transitional care and other improvements in both the health care and social services are demanded.

Unemployment and the rate of psychoactive-substance-related psychiatric hospital admission in regional Queensland: An observational, longitudinal study

OBJECTIVES

To examine the relationship between a regional economic downturn (indicated by the rise of population unemployment rate) and the rate of psychoactive-substance-induced psychiatric hospital admissions in the population in a rural/regional setting.

METHODS

Hospital admission records from January 2013 to December 2016 were reviewed retrospectively. All patients with admissions to the Mackay inpatient psychiatric unit with diagnosis of mental and behavioural disorders due to psychoactive substance use were recorded using (ICD-10) F10-F19 codes. The relationship between the regional unemployment rate and the hospital admission rate was analysed using linear regression analysis.

RESULTS

A statistically significant regression was found (F(1,46) = 39.46, p < 0.0001), R² = 0.46). The predicted number of admissions per 100,000 population in a month was observed to increase on average by 3.13 per month (95% CI = 2.12-4.13, p < 0.0001) for each percentage increase in the regional unemployment rate.

CONCLUSIONS

There was a statistically significant association between the population unemployment rate and the rate of substance induced psychiatric hospital admissions. Implications for regional Australian service provision and unmet needs were discussed. Further research is required to confirm this observation.

Understanding variation in unplanned admissions of people aged 85 and over: a systems-based approach

AIM

To examine system characteristics associated with variations in unplanned admission rates in those aged 85+.

DESIGN

Mixed methods.

SETTING

Primary care trusts in England were ranked according to changes in admission rates for people aged 85+ between 2007 and 2009, and study sites selected from each end of the distribution: three 'improving' sites where rates had declined by more than 4% and three 'deteriorating' sites where rates had increased by more than 20%. Each site comprised an acute hospital trust, its linked primary care trust/clinical commissioning group, the provider of community health services and adult social care.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 142 representatives from these organisations were interviewed to understand how policies had been developed and implemented. McKinsey's 7S framework was used as a structure for investigation and analysis.

RESULTS

In general, improving sites provided more evidence of comprehensive system focused strategies backed by strong leadership, enabling the development and implementation of policies and procedures to avoid unnecessary admissions of older people. In these sites, primary and intermediate care services appeared more comprehensive and better integrated with other parts of the system, and policies in emergency departments were more focused on providing alternatives to admission.

CONCLUSIONS

Health and social care communities which have attenuated admissions of people aged 85+ prioritised developing a shared vision and strategy, with sustained implementation of a suite of interventions.

Exploring variation in how ambulance services address non-conveyance: a qualitative interview study

OBJECTIVES

There is considerable variation in non-conveyance rates between ambulance services in England. The aim was to explore variation in how each ambulance service addressed non-conveyance for calls ending in telephone advice and discharge at scene.

DESIGN

A qualitative interview study.

SETTING

Ten large regional ambulance services covering 99% of the population in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Between four and seven interviewees from each ambulance service including managers, paramedics and healthcare commissioners, totalling 49 interviews.

METHODS

Telephone semistructured interviews.

RESULTS

The way interviewees in each ambulance service discussed non-conveyance within their organisation varied for three broad themes. First, ambulance service senior management appeared to set the culture around non-conveyance within an organisation, viewing it either as an opportunity or as a risky endeavour. Although motivation levels to undertake non-conveyance did not appear to be directly affected by the stability of an ambulance service in terms of continuity of leadership and externally assessed quality, this stability could affect the ability of the organisation to innovate to increase non-conveyance rates. Second, descriptions of workforce configuration differed between ambulance services, as well as how this workforce was used, trained and valued. Third, interviewees in each ambulance service described health and social care in the wider emergency and urgent care system differently in terms of availability of services that could facilitate non-conveyance, the amount of collaborative working between health and social care services and the ambulance service and complexity related to the numbers of services and healthcare commissioners with whom they had to work.

CONCLUSIONS

This study suggests that factors within and outside the control of ambulance services may contribute to variation in non-conveyance rates. These findings can be tested in a quantitative analysis of factors affecting variation in non-conveyance rates between ambulance services in England.

Alcohol outlet density and alcohol related hospital admissions in England: a national small-area level ecological study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Excessive alcohol consumption has a substantial impact on public health services. A key element determining alcohol availability is alcohol outlet density. This study investigated the relationship between on-trade and off-trade outlets and hospital admission rates in local neighbourhoods.

DESIGN

National small-area level ecological study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

All 32 482 lower layer super output census areas (LSOAs) in England (42 227 108 million people aged 15+ years). Densities for six outlet categories (outlets within a 1-km radius of residential postcode centroids, averaged for all postcodes within each LSOA) were calculated.

MEASUREMENTS

Main outcome measures were admissions due to acute or chronic conditions wholly or partially attributable to alcohol consumption from 2002/03 to 2013/14.

FINDINGS

There were 1 007 137 admissions wholly, and 2 153 874 admissions partially, attributable to alcohol over 12 years. After adjustment for confounding, higher densities of on-trade outlets (pubs, bars and nightclubs; restaurants licensed to sell alcohol; other on-trade outlets) and convenience stores were associated with higher admission rate ratios for acute and chronic wholly attributable conditions. For acute wholly attributable conditions, admission rate ratios were 13% (95% confidence interval = 11-15%), 9% (7-10%), 12% (10-14%) and 10% (9-12%) higher, respectively, in the highest relative to the lowest density categories by quartile. For chronic wholly attributable conditions, rate ratios were 22% (21-24%), 9% (7-11%), 19% (17-21%) and 7% (6-9%) higher, respectively. Supermarket density was associated with modestly higher acute and chronic admissions but other off-trade outlet density was associated only with higher admissions for chronic wholly attributable conditions. For partially attributable conditions, there were no strong patterns of association with outlet densities.

CONCLUSIONS

In England, higher densities of several categories of alcohol outlets appear to be associated with higher hospital admission rates for conditions wholly attributable to alcohol consumption.

Drivers of potentially avoidable emergency admissions in Ireland: an ecological analysis

BACKGROUND

Many emergency admissions are deemed to be potentially avoidable in a well-performing health system.

OBJECTIVE

To measure the impact of population and health system factors on county-level variation in potentially avoidable emergency admissions in Ireland over the period 2014-2016.

METHODS

Admissions data were used to calculate 2014-2016 age-adjusted emergency admission rates for selected conditions by county of residence. Negative binomial regression was used to identify which a priori factors were significantly associated with emergency admissions for these conditions and whether these factors were also associated with total/other emergency admissions. Standardised incidence rate ratios (IRRs) associated with a 1 SD change in risk factors were reported.

RESULTS

Nationally, potentially avoidable emergency admissions for the period 2014-2016 (266 395) accounted for 22% of all emergency admissions. Of the population factors, a 1 SD change in the county-level unemployment rate was associated with a 24% higher rate of potentially avoidable emergency admissions (IRR: 1.24; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.41). Significant health system factors included emergency admissions with length of stay equal to 1 day (IRR: 1.20; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.30) and private health insurance coverage (IRR: 0.92; 95% CI 0.89 to 0.96). The full model accounted for 50% of unexplained variation in potentially avoidable emergency admissions in each county. Similar results were found across total/other emergency admissions.

CONCLUSION

The results suggest potentially avoidable emergency admissions and total/other emergency admissions are primarily driven by socioeconomic conditions, hospital admission policy and private health insurance coverage. The distinction between potentially avoidable and all other emergency admissions may not be as useful as previously believed when attempting to identify the causes of regional variation in emergency admission rates.

Why do ambulance services have different non-transport rates? A national cross sectional study

BACKGROUND

Some patients calling ambulance services (known as Emergency Medical Services internationally) are not transported to hospital. In England, national ambulance quality indicators show considerable variation in non-transport rates between the ten large regional ambulance services. The aim of this study was to explain variation between ambulance services in two types of non-transport: discharge at scene and telephone advice.

METHODS

Mixed model logistic regressions using one month of data (November 2014) from the Computer Aided Despatch systems of the ten large regional ambulance services in England.

RESULTS

41% (251 677/615 815) of patients calling ambulance services were not transported to hospital. Most were discharged at scene after attendance by an ambulance (29% n = 182 479) and a small percentage were given telephone advice (7% n = 40 679). Discharge at scene rates varied by patient-level factors e.g. they were higher for elderly patients, where the reason for calling was falls, and for patients attended by paramedics with extended skills. These patient-level factors did not explain variation between ambulance services. After adjustment for patient-level factors, the following ambulance service level factors explained variation in discharge at scene rates: proportion of patients attended by paramedics with extended skills (odds ratio 1.05 (95% CI 1.04, 1.07)), the perception of ambulance service staff that paramedics with extended skills were established and valued within the workforce (odds ratio 1.84 (1.45, 2.33), and the perception of ambulance service staff that senior management viewed non-transport as risky (odds ratio 0.78 (0.63, 0.98)). Variation in telephone advice rates could not be explained.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in discharge at scene rates was explained by differences in workforce configuration and managerial motivation, factors that are largely modifiable by ambulance services.

Factors associated with hospital emergency readmission and mortality rates in patients with heart failure or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a national observational study

Background

Heart failure (HF) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) lead to unplanned hospital activity, but our understanding of what drives this is incomplete.

Objectives

To model patient, primary care and hospital factors associated with readmission and mortality for patients with HF and COPD, to assess the statistical performance of post-discharge emergency department (ED) attendance compared with readmission metrics and to compare all the results for the two conditions.

Design

Observational study.

Setting

English NHS.

Participants

All patients admitted to acute non-specialist hospitals as an emergency for HF or COPD.

Interventions

None.

Main outcome measures

One-year mortality and 30-day emergency readmission following the patient’s first unplanned admission (‘index admission’) for HF or COPD.

Data sources

Patient-level data from Hospital Episodes Statistics were combined with publicly available practice- and hospital-level data on performance, patient and staff experience and rehabilitation programme website information.

Results

One-year mortality rates were 39.6% for HF and 24.1% for COPD and 30-day readmission rates were 19.8% for HF and 16.5% for COPD. Most patients were elderly with multiple comorbidities. Patient factors predicting mortality included older age, male sex, white ethnicity, prior missed outpatient appointments, (long) index length of hospital stay (LOS) and several comorbidities. Older age, missed appointments, (short) LOS and comorbidities also predicted readmission. Of the practice and hospital factors we considered, only more doctors per 10 beds [odds ratio (OR) 0.95 per doctor;p < 0.001] was significant for both cohorts for mortality, with staff recommending to friends and family (OR 0.80 per unit increase;p < 0.001) and number of general practitioners (GPs) per 1000 patients (OR 0.89 per extra GP;p = 0.004) important for COPD. For readmission, only hospital size [OR per 100 beds = 2.16, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34 to 3.48 for HF, and 2.27, 95% CI 1.40 to 3.66 for COPD] and doctors per 10 beds (OR 0.98;p < 0.001) were significantly associated. Some factors, such as comorbidities, varied in importance depending on the readmission diagnosis. ED visits were common after the index discharge, with 75% resulting in admission. Many predictors of admission at this visit were as for readmission minus comorbidities and plus attendance outside the day shift and numbers of admissions that hour. Hospital-level rates for ED attendance varied much more than those for readmission, but the omega statistics favoured them as a performance indicator.

Limitations

Data lacked direct information on disease severity and ED attendance reasons; NHS surveys were not specific to HF or COPD patients; and some data sets were aggregated.

Conclusions

Following an index admission for HF or COPD, older age, prior missed outpatient appointments, LOS and many comorbidities predict both mortality and readmission. Of the aggregated practice and hospital information, only doctors per bed and numbers of hospital beds were strongly associated with either outcome (both negatively). The 30-day ED visits and diagnosis-specific readmission rates seem to be useful performance indicators.

Future work

Hospital variations in ED visits could be investigated using existing data despite coding limitations. Primary care management could be explored using individual-level linked databases.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Exploring emergency department 4-hour target performance and cancelled elective operations: a regression analysis of routinely collected and openly reported NHS trust data

OBJECTIVE

To quantify the effect of intrahospital patient flow on emergency department (ED) performance targets and indicate if the expectations set by the National Health Service (NHS) England 5-year forward review are realistic in returning emergency services to previous performance levels.

DESIGN

Linear regression analysis of routinely reported trust activity and performance data using a series of cross-sectional studies.

SETTING

NHS trusts in England submitting routine nationally reported measures to NHS England.

PARTICIPANTS

142 acute non-specialist trusts operating in England between 2012 and 2016.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measures were proportion of 4-hour waiting time breaches and cancelled elective operations.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate linear regression models were used to show relationships between the outcome measures and various measures of trust activity including empty day beds, empty night beds, day bed to night bed ratio, ED conversion ratio and delayed transfers of care.

RESULTS

Univariate regression results using the outcome of 4-hour breaches showed clear relationships with empty night beds and ED conversion ratio between 2012 and 2016. The day bed to night bed ratio showed an increasing ability to explain variation in performance between 2015 and 2016. Delayed transfers of care showed little evidence of an association. Multivariate model results indicated that the ability of patient flow variables to explain 4-hour target performance had reduced between 2012 and 2016 (19% to 12%), and had increased in explaining cancelled elective operations (7% to 17%).

CONCLUSIONS

The flow of patients through trusts is shown to influence ED performance; however, performance has become less explainable by intratrust patient flow between 2012 and 2016. Some commonly stated explanatory factors such as delayed transfers of care showed limited evidence of being related. The results indicate some of the measures proposed by NHS England to reduce pressure on EDs may not have the desired impact on returning services to previous performance levels.

Does practice analysis agree with the ambulatory care sensitive conditions' list of avoidable unplanned admissions?: a cross-sectional study in the East of England

OBJECTIVES

To use significant event audits (SEAs) in primary care to determine which of a sample of emergency (unplanned) admissions were potentially avoidable; and compare with the National Health Service (NHS) list of ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs).

DESIGN

Analysis of unplanned medical admissions randomly identified in secondary care.

SETTING

Primary care in the East of England.

PARTICIPANTS

20 general practice teams trained to use SEA on unplanned admissions to identify potentially preventable factors.

INTERVENTIONS

SEA of admissions.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Level of agreement between those admissions identified as potentially preventable by SEA and the NHS ACSC list.

RESULTS

132 (26%) of randomly selected patients with unplanned admissions gave consent and an SEA was performed by their primary practice team. 130 SEA reports had sufficient data for our analysis. Practices concluded that 17 (13%) admissions were potentially preventable. The NHS ACSC list identified 36 admissions (28%) as potentially preventable. There was a low level of agreement between the practices and the NHS list as to which admissions were preventable (kappa=0.253). The ACSC list consisted mainly of respiratory admissions whereas the practice list identified a wider range of cases and identified context-specific factors as important.

CONCLUSIONS

There was disagreement between the NHS list and practice conclusions of potentially avoidable admissions. The SEAs suggest that the pathway into unplanned admission may be less dependent on the condition than on context-specific factors, and the assumption that unplanned admissions for ACSCs are reasonable indicators of performance for primary care may not be valid.

The impact of out-of-hospital models of care on paediatric emergency department presentations

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the potential impact of enhanced primary care and new out-of-hospital models (OOHMs) on emergency department (ED) presentations by children and young people (CYP).

DESIGN

Observational study.

PATIENTS & SETTING

Data collected prospectively on 3020 CYP 0-17.9 years from 6 London EDs during 14 days by 25 supernumerary clinicians. CYP with transient acute illness, exacerbation of long-term condition (LTC), complex LTC/disability and injury/trauma were considered manageable within OOHM. OOHMs assessed included nurse-led services, multispecialty community provider (MCP), primary and acute care system (PACS) plus current and enhanced primary care.

MEASURES

Diagnosis, severity; record of investigations, management and outcome that occurred; objective assessment of clinical need and potential alternative management options/destinations.

RESULTS

Of the patients 95.6% had diagnoses appropriate for OOHM. Most presentations required assessment by a clinician with skills in assessing illness (39.6%) or injuries (30.9%). One thousand two hundred and ninety-one (42.75%) required no investigations and 1007 (33.3%) were provided only with reassurance. Of the presentations 42.2% were judged to have been totally avoidable if the family had had better health education.Of the patients 26.1% were judged appropriate for current primary care (community pharmacy or general practice) with 31.5% appropriate for the combination of enhanced general practice and community pharmacy. Proportions suitable for new models were 14.1% for the nurse-led acute illness team, MCP 25.7%, GP federation CYP service 44.6%, comprehensive walk-in centre for CYP 64.3% and 75.5% for a PACS.

CONCLUSIONS

High proportions of ED presentations by CYP could potentially be managed in new OOHMs or by enhancement of existing primary care.

Short-stay admissions at an inner city hospital: a cross-sectional analysis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate factors predictive of short hospital admissions and appropriate placement to inpatient versus clinical decision units (CDUs).

METHOD

This is a retrospective analysis of attendance and discharge data from an inner-city ED in England for December 2013. The primary outcome was admission for less than 48 hours either to an inpatient unit or CDU. Variables included: age, gender, ethnicity, deprivation score, arrival date and time, arrival method, admission outcome and discharge diagnosis. Analysis was performed by cross-tabulation followed by binary logistic regression in three models using the outcome measures above and seeking to identify factors associated with short-stay admission.

RESULTS

There were 2119 (24%) admissions during the study period and 458 were admitted for less than 24 hours. Those who were admitted in the middle of the week or with ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) were significantly more likely to experience short-stays. Older patients and those who arrived by ambulance were significantly more likely to have a longer hospital stay. There was no association of length of inpatient stay with being admitted in the last 10 min of a 4 hours ED stay.

CONCLUSION

Only a few factors were independently predictive of short stays. Patients with ACSCs were more likely to have short stays, regardless of whether they were admitted to CDU or an inpatient ward. This may be a group of patients that could be targeted for dedicated outpatient management pathways or CDU if they need admission.

Calculating the proportion of avoidable attendances at UK emergency departments: analysis of the Royal College of Emergency Medicine's Sentinel Site Survey data

INTRODUCTION

Avoidable attendances (AAs; defined as non-urgent, self-referred patients who could be managed more effectively and efficiently by other services) have been identified as a contributor to ED crowding. Internationally, AAs have been estimated to constitute 10%-90% of ED attendances, with the UK 2013 Urgent and Emergency Care Review suggesting a figure of 40%.

METHODS

This pilot study used data from the Royal College of Emergency Medicine's Sentinel Site Survey to estimate the proportion of AAs in 12 EDs across England on a standard day (20 March 2014). AAs were defined by an expert panel using questions from the survey. All patients attending the EDs were recorded with details of investigations and treatments received, and the proportion of patients meeting criteria for AA was calculated.

RESULTS

Visits for 3044 patients were included. Based on these criteria, a mean of 19.4% (95% CI 18.0% to 20.8%) of attendances could be deemed avoidable. The lowest proportion of AAs reported was 10.7%, while the highest was 44.3%. Younger age was a significant predictor of AA with mean age of 38.6 years for all patients attending compared with 24.6 years for patients attending avoidably (p≤0.001).

DISCUSSION

The proportion of AAs in this study was lower than many estimates in the literature, including that reported by the 2013 Urgent and Emergency Care Review. This suggests the ED is the most appropriate healthcare setting for many patients due to comprehensive investigations, treatments and capability for urgent referrals.The proportion of AAs is dependent on the defining criteria used, highlighting the need for a standardised, universal definition of an appropriate/avoidable ED attendance. This is essential to understanding how AAs contribute to the overall issue of crowding.

A qualitative study exploring the factors influencing admission to hospital from the emergency department

OBJECTIVE

The number of emergency admissions to hospital in England and Wales has risen sharply in recent years and is a matter of concern to clinicians, policy makers and patients alike. However, the factors that influence this decision are poorly understood. We aimed to ascertain how non-clinical factors can affect hospital admission rates.

METHOD

We conducted semistructured interviews with 21 participants from three acute hospital trusts. Participants included 11 emergency department (ED) doctors, 3 ED nurses, 3 managers and 4 inpatient doctors. A range of seniority was represented among these roles. Interview questions were developed from key themes identified in a theoretical framework developed by the authors to explain admission decision-making. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and analysed by two independent researchers using framework analysis.

FINDINGS

Departmental factors such as busyness, time of day and levels of senior support were identified as non-clinical influences on a decision to admit rather than discharge patients. The 4-hour waiting time target, while overall seen as positive, was described as influencing decisions around patient admission, independent of clinical need. Factors external to the hospital such as a patient's social support and community follow-up were universally considered powerful influences on admission. Lastly, the culture within the ED was described as having a strong influence (either negatively or positively) on the decision to admit patients.

CONCLUSION

Multiple factors were identified which go some way to explaining marked variation in admission rates observed between different EDs. Many of these factors require further inquiry through quantitative research in order to understand their influence further.

Impact of primary care on hospital admission rates for diabetes patients: A systematic review

High-quality primary care for diabetes patients may be related to lowered hospital admissions. A systematic search was performed to assess the impact of structure, process, and outcome of primary diabetes care on hospital admission rates, considering patient characteristics. Studies on diabetes patients in primary care with hospitalisation rates as outcomes published between January 1996 and December 2015 were included. Indicators of quality of care (access, continuity and structure of care, process, and outcome indicators) and patient characteristics (age, gender, ethnicity, insurance, socio-economic status, diabetes characteristics, co-morbidity, and health-related lifestyle) were extracted. After assessment of the strength of evidence, characteristics of care and diabetes patients were presented in relation to the likelihood of hospitalisation. Thirty-one studies were identified. A regular source of primary care and a well-controlled HbA1c level decreased the likelihood of hospitalisation. Other aspects of care were less consistent. Patients' age, co-morbidity, and socio-economic status were related to higher hospitalisation. Gender and health-related lifestyle showed no relationship. Studies were heterogeneous in design, sample, and healthcare system. Different definitions of diabetes and unscheduled admissions limited comparisons. In healthcare systems where diabetes patients have a regular source of primary care, hospital admission rates cannot be meaningfully related to primary care characteristics.

What is the evidence for the management of patients along the pathway from the emergency department to acute admission to reduce unplanned attendance and admission? An evidence synthesis

Background

Globally, the rate of emergency hospital admissions is increasing. However, little evidence exists to inform the development of interventions to reduce unplanned Emergency Department (ED) attendances and hospital admissions. The objective of this evidence synthesis was to review the evidence for interventions, conducted during the patient’s journey through the ED or acute care setting, to manage people with an exacerbation of a medical condition to reduce unplanned emergency hospital attendance and admissions.

Methods

A rapid evidence synthesis, using a systematic literature search, was undertaken in the electronic data bases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science, for the years 2000–2014. Evidence included in this review was restricted to Randomised Controlled Trials (RCTs) and observational studies (with a control arm) reported in peer-reviewed journals. Studies evaluating interventions for patients with an acute exacerbation of a medical condition in the ED or acute care setting which reported at least one outcome related to ED attendance or unplanned admission were included.

Results

Thirty papers met our inclusion criteria: 19 intervention studies (14 RCTs) and 11 controlled observational studies. Sixteen studies were set in the ED and 14 were conducted in an acute setting. Two studies (one RCT), set in the ED were effective in reducing ED attendance and hospital admission. Both of these interventions were initiated in the ED and included a post-discharge community component. Paradoxically 3 ED initiated interventions showed an increase in ED re-attendance. Six studies (1 RCT) set in acute care settings were effective in reducing: hospital admission, ED re-attendance or re-admission (two in an observation ward, one in an ED assessment unit and three in which the intervention was conducted within 72 h of admission).

Conclusions

There is no clear evidence that specific interventions along the patient journey from ED arrival to 72 h after admission benefit ED re-attendance or readmission. Interventions targeted at high-risk patients, particularly the elderly, may reduce ED utilization and warrant future research. Some interventions showing effectiveness in reducing unplanned ED attendances and admissions are delivered by appropriately trained personnel in an environment that allows sufficient time to assess and manage patients.

The value of theory in programmes to implement clinical guidelines: Insights from a retrospective mixed-methods evaluation of a programme to increase adherence to national guidelines for chronic disease in primary care

BACKGROUND

Programmes have had limited success in improving guideline adherence for chronic disease. Use of theory is recommended but is often absent in programmes conducted in 'real-world' rather than research settings.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This mixed-methods study tested a retrospective theory-based approach to evaluate a 'real-world' programme in primary care to improve adherence to national guidelines for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Qualitative data, comprising analysis of documents generated throughout the programme (n>300), in-depth interviews with planners (clinicians, managers and improvement experts involved in devising, planning, and implementing the programme, n = 14) and providers (practice clinicians, n = 14) were used to construct programme theories, experiences of implementation and contextual factors influencing care. Quantitative analyses comprised controlled before-and-after analyses to test 'early' and evolved' programme theories with comparators grounded in each theory. 'Early' theory predicted the programme would reduce emergency hospital admissions (EHA). It was tested using national analysis of standardized borough-level EHA rates between programme and comparator boroughs. 'Evolved' theory predicted practices with higher programme participation would increase guideline adherence and reduce EHA and costs. It was tested using a difference-in-differences analysis with linked primary and secondary care data to compare changes in diagnosis, management, EHA and costs, over time and by programme participation.

RESULTS

Contrary to programme planners' predictions in 'early' and 'evolved' programme theories, admissions did not change following the programme. However, consistent with 'evolved' theory, higher guideline adoption occurred in practices with greater programme participation.

CONCLUSIONS

Retrospectively constructing theories based on the ideas of programme planners can enable evaluators to address some limitations encountered when evaluating programmes without a theoretical base. Prospectively articulating theory aided by existing models and mid-range implementation theories may strengthen guideline adoption efforts by prompting planners to scrutinise implementation methods. Benefits of deriving programme theory, with or without the aid of mid-range implementation theories, however, may be limited when the evidence underpinning guidelines is flawed.

Assessing Impacts on Unplanned Hospitalisations of Care Quality and Access Using a Structural Equation Method: With a Case Study of Diabetes

Background: Enhanced quality of care and improved access are central to effective primary care management of long term conditions. However, research evidence is inconclusive in establishing a link between quality of primary care, or access, and adverse outcomes, such as unplanned hospitalisation. Methods: This paper proposes a structural equation model for quality and access as latent variables affecting adverse outcomes, such as unplanned hospitalisations. In a case study application, quality of care (QOC) is defined in relation to diabetes, and the aim is to assess impacts of care quality and access on unplanned hospital admissions for diabetes, while allowing also for socio-economic deprivation, diabetes morbidity, and supply effects. The study involves 90 general practitioner (GP) practices in two London Clinical Commissioning Groups, using clinical quality of care indicators, and patient survey data on perceived access. Results: As a single predictor, quality of care has a significant negative impact on emergency admissions, and this significant effect remains when socio-economic deprivation and morbidity are allowed. In a full structural equation model including access, the probability that QOC negatively impacts on unplanned admissions exceeds 0.9. Furthermore, poor access is linked to deprivation, diminished QOC, and larger list sizes. Conclusions: Using a Bayesian inference methodology, the evidence from the analysis is weighted towards negative impacts of higher primary care quality and improved access on unplanned admissions. The methodology of the paper is potentially applicable to other long term conditions, and relevant when care quality and access cannot be measured directly and are better regarded as latent variables.

Statewide retrospective study of low acuity emergency presentations in New South Wales, Australia: who, what, where and why?

OBJECTIVE

The present study aims to use a statewide population-based registry to assess the prevalence of low acuity emergency department (ED) presentations, describe the trend in presentation rates and to determine whether they were associated with various presentation characteristics such as the type of hospital as well as clinical and demographic variables.

DESIGN AND SETTING

This was a retrospective analysis of a population-based registry of ED presentations in New South Wales (NSW). Generalised estimating equations with log links were used to determine factors associated with low acuity presentations to account for repeat presentations and the possibility of clustering of outcomes.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients were included in this analysis if they presented to an ED between January 2010 and December 2014. The outcomes of interest were low acuity presentation, defined as those who self-presented (were not transported by ambulance), were assigned a triage category of 4 or 5 (semiurgent or non-urgent) and discharged back to usual residence from ED.

RESULTS

There were 10.7 million ED presentations analysed. Of these, 45% were classified as a low acuity presentation. There was no discernible increase in the rate of low acuity presentations across NSW between 2010 and 2014. The strongest predictors of low acuity ED presentation were age <40 years of age (OR 1.77); injury or musculoskeletal administrative and non-urgent procedures (OR 2.96); ear, nose and throat, eye or oral (OR 5.53); skin or allergy-type presenting problems (OR 2.84).

CONCLUSIONS

Low acuity ED presentations comprise almost half of all ED presentations. Alternative emergency models of care may help meet the needs of these patients.

Patient and public involvement in emergency care research

Patients participate in emergency care research and are the intended beneficiaries of research findings. The public provide substantial funding for research through taxation and charitable donations. If we do research to benefit patients and the public are funding the research, then patients and the public should be involved in the planning, prioritisation, design, conduct and oversight of research, yet patient and public involvement (or more simply, public involvement, since patients are also members of the public) has only recently developed in emergency care research. In this article, we describe what public involvement is and how it can help emergency care research. We use the development of a pioneering public involvement group in emergency care, the Sheffield Emergency Care Forum, to provide insights into the potential and challenges of public involvement in emergency care research.

A systematic review of health service interventions to reduce use of unplanned health care in rural areas

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Use of unplanned health care has long been increasing, and not enough is known about which interventions may reduce use. We aimed to review the effectiveness of interventions to reduce the use of unplanned health care by rural populations.

METHODS

The method used was systematic review. Scientific databases (Medline, Embase and Central), grey literature and selected references were searched. Study quality and bias was assessed using Cochrane Risk of Bias and modified Newcastle Ottawa Scales. Results were summarized narratively.

RESULTS

A total of 2708 scientific articles, reports and other documents were found. After screening, 33 studies met the eligibility criteria, of which eight were randomized controlled trials, 13 were observational studies of unplanned care use before and after new practices were implemented and 12 compared intervention patients with non-randomized control patients. Eight of the 33 studies reported modest statistically significant reductions in unplanned emergency care use while two reported statistically significant increases in unplanned care. Reductions were associated with preventative medicine, telemedicine and targeting chronic illnesses. Cost savings were also reported for some interventions.

CONCLUSION

Relatively few studies report on unscheduled medical care by specifically rural populations, and interventions were associated with modest reductions in unplanned care use. Future research should evaluate interventions more robustly and more clearly report the results.

Qualitative critical incident study of patients' experiences leading to emergency hospital admission with advanced respiratory illness

OBJECTIVES

The high volume of emergency admissions to hospital is a challenge for health systems internationally. Patients with lung cancer and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are frequently admitted to hospital as emergency cases. While the frequency of emergency admission has been investigated, few studies report patient experiences, particularly in relation to the decision-making process prior to emergency admission. We sought to explore patient and carer experiences and those of their healthcare professionals in the period leading up to emergency admission to hospital.

SETTING

3 UK hospitals located in different urban and rural settings.

DESIGN

Qualitative critical incident study.

PARTICIPANTS

24 patients with advanced lung cancer and 15 with advanced COPD admitted to hospital as emergencies, 20 of their carers and 50 of the health professionals involved in the patients' care.

RESULTS

The analysis of patient, carer and professionals' interviews revealed a detailed picture of the complex processes involved leading to emergency admission to hospital. 3 phases were apparent in this period: self-management of deteriorating symptoms, negotiated decision-making and letting go. These were dynamic processes, characterised by an often rapidly changing clinical condition, uncertainty and anxiety. Patients considered their options drawing on experience, current and earlier advice. Patients tried to avoid admission, reluctantly accepting it, albeit often with a sense of relief, as anxiety increased with worsening symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with advanced respiratory illness, and their carers, try to avoid emergency admission, and use logical and complex decision-making before reluctantly accepting it. Clinicians and policy-makers need to understand this complex process when considering how to reduce emergency hospital admissions rather than focusing on identifying and labelling admissions as 'inappropriate'.

How can frontline expertise and new models of care best contribute to safely reducing avoidable acute admissions? A mixed-methods study of four acute hospitals

Background

Hospital emergency admissions have risen annually, exacerbating pressures on emergency departments (EDs) and acute medical units. These pressures have an adverse impact on patient experience and potentially lead to suboptimal clinical decision-making. In response, a variety of innovations have been developed, but whether or not these reduce inappropriate admissions or improve patient and clinician experience is largely unknown.

Aims

To investigate the interplay of service factors influencing decision-making about emergency admissions, and to understand how the medical assessment process is experienced by patients, carers and practitioners.

Methods

The project used a multiple case study design for a mixed-methods analysis of decision-making about admissions in four acute hospitals. The primary research comprised two parts: value stream mapping to measure time spent by practitioners on key activities in 108 patient pathways, including an embedded study of cost; and an ethnographic study incorporating data from 65 patients, 30 carers and 282 practitioners of different specialties and levels. Additional data were collected through a clinical panel, learning sets, stakeholder workshops, reading groups and review of site data and documentation. We used a realist synthesis approach to integrate findings from all sources.

Findings

Patients’ experiences of emergency care were positive and they often did not raise concerns, whereas carers were more vocal. Staff’s focus on patient flow sometimes limited time for basic care, optimal communication and shared decision-making. Practitioners admitted or discharged few patients during the first hour, but decision-making increased rapidly towards the 4-hour target. Overall, patients’ journey times were similar, although waiting before being seen, for tests or after admission decisions, varied considerably. The meaning of what constituted an ‘admission’ varied across sites and sometimes within a site. Medical and social complexity, targets and ‘bed pressure’, patient safety and risk, each influenced admission/discharge decision-making. Each site responded to these pressures with different initiatives designed to expedite appropriate decision-making. New ways of using hospital ‘space’ were identified. Clinical decision units and observation wards allow potentially dischargeable patients with medical and/or social complexity to be ‘off the clock’, allowing time for tests, observation or safe discharge. New teams supported admission avoidance: an acute general practitioner service filtered patients prior to arrival; discharge teams linked with community services; specialist teams for the elderly facilitated outpatient treatment. Senior doctors had a range of roles: evaluating complex patients, advising and training juniors, and overseeing ED activity.

Conclusions

This research shows how hospitals under pressure manage complexity, safety and risk in emergency care by developing ‘ground-up’ initiatives that facilitate timely, appropriate and safe decision-making, and alternative care pathways for lower-risk, ambulatory patients. New teams and ‘off the clock’ spaces contribute to safely reducing avoidable admissions; frontline expertise brings value not only by placing senior experienced practitioners at the front door of EDs, but also by using seniors in advisory roles. Although the principal limitation of this research is its observational design, so that causation cannot be inferred, its strength is hypothesis generation. Further research should test whether or not the service and care innovations identified here can improve patient experience of acute care and safely reduce avoidable admissions.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Services and Delivery Research programme (project number 10/1010/06). This research was supported by the NIHR Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care South West Peninsula.

The formation and design of the TRIAGE study--baseline data on 6005 consecutive patients admitted to hospital from the emergency department

BACKGROUND

Patient crowding in emergency departments (ED) is a common challenge and associated with worsened outcome for the patients. Previous studies on biomarkers in the ED setting has focused on identification of high risk patients, and and the ability to use biomarkers to identify low-risk patients has only been sparsely examined. The broader aims of the TRIAGE study are to develop methods to identify low-risk patients appropriate for early ED discharge by combining information from a wide range of new inflammatory biomarkers and vital signs, the present baseline article aims to describe the formation of the TRIAGE database and characteristize the included patients.

METHODS

We included consecutive patients ≥ 17 years admitted to hospital after triage staging in the ED. Blood samples for a biobank were collected and plasma stored in a freezer (-80 °C). Triage was done by a trained nurse using the Danish Emergency Proces Triage (DEPT) which categorizes patients as green (not urgent), yellow (urgent), orange (emergent) or red (rescusitation). Presenting complaints, admission diagnoses, comorbidities, length of stay, and 'events' during admission (any of 20 predefined definitive treatments that necessitates in-hospital care), vital signs and routine laboratory tests taken in the ED were aslo included in the database.

RESULTS

Between September 5(th) 2013 and December 6(th) 2013, 6005 patients were included in the database and the biobank (94.1 % of all admissions). Of these, 1978 (32.9 %) were categorized as green, 2386 (39.7 %) yellow, 1616 (26.9 %) orange and 25 (0.4 %) red. Median age was 62 years (IQR 46-76), 49.8 % were male and median length of stay was 1 day (IQR 0-4). No events were found in 2658 (44.2 %) and 158 (2.6 %) were admitted to intensive or intermediate-intensive care unit and 219 (3.6 %) died within 30 days. A higher triage acuity level was associated with numerous events, including acute surgery, endovascular intervention, i.v. treatment, cardiac arrest, stroke, admission to intensive care, hospital transfer, and mortality within 30 days (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The TRIAGE database has been completed and includes data and blood samples from 6005 unselected consecutive hospitalized patients. More than 40 % experienced no events and were therefore potentially unnecessary hospital admissions.

Variation in avoidable emergency admissions: multiple case studies of emergency and urgent care systems

OBJECTIVE

To identify factors affecting variation in avoidable emergency admissions that are not usually identified in statistical regression.

METHODS

As part of an ethnographic residual analysis, we compared six emergency and urgent care systems in England, interviewing 82 commissioners and providers of key emergency and urgent care services.

RESULTS

There was variation between the six cases in how interviewees described three parts of their emergency and urgent care systems. First, interviewees' descriptions revealed variation in the availability of services before patients decided to attend emergency departments. Poor availability of general practice out of hours services in some of the cases reportedly made attendance at emergency departments the easier option for patients. Second, there was variation in how interviewees described patients being dealt with during their emergency department visit in terms of availability of senior review by specialists and in coding practices when patients were at risk of breaching the NHS's 4-hour waiting time target. Third, there was variability in services described as facilitating discharge home from emergency departments. In some cases, emergency department staff described dealing with multiple agencies in multiple localities outside the hospital, making admission the easier option. In other cases, proactive multidisciplinary rapid assessment teams were described as available to avoid admissions. Perceptions of resources available out of hours and the extent of integration between different health services, and between health and social services, also differed by case.

CONCLUSIONS

This comparative case study approach identified further factors that may affect avoidable emergency admissions. Initiatives to improve GP out of hours services, make coding more accurately reflect patient experience, increase senior review in emergency departments, offer proactive multidisciplinary admission avoidance teams, improve the availability of out of hours care in the wider emergency and urgent care system, and increase service integration may reduce avoidable admissions. Evaluation of such initiatives would be necessary before wide-scale adoption.

Establishing and implementing best practice to reduce unplanned admissions in those aged 85 years and over through system change [Establishing System Change for Admissions of People 85+ (ESCAPE 85+)]: a mixed-methods case study approach

Background

In England, between 2007/8 and 2009/10, the rate of unplanned hospital admissions of people aged 85 years and above rose from 48 to 52 per 100. There was substantial variation, with some areas showing a much faster rate of increase and others showing a decline.

Objectives

To identify system characteristics associated with higher and lower increases in unplanned admission rates in those aged 85 years and over; to develop recommendations to inform providers and commissioners; and to investigate the challenges of starting to implement these recommendations.

Design

Mixed-methods study using routinely collected data, in-depth interviews and focus groups. Data were analysed using the framework approach, with themes following McKinsey’s 7S model. Recommendations derived from our findings were refined and prioritised through respondent validation and consultation with the project steering group. The process of beginning to implement these recommendations was examined in one ‘implementation site’.

Participants

Six study sites were selected based on admission data for patients aged 85 years and above from primary care trusts: three where rates of increase were among the most rapid and three where they had slowed down or declined. Each ‘improving’ or ‘deteriorating’ site comprised an acute hospital trust, its linked primary care trust/clinical commissioning group, the provider of community health services, and adult social care. At each site, representatives from these organisations at strategic and operational levels, as well as representatives of patient groups, were interviewed to understand how policies had been developed and implemented. A total of 142 respondents were interviewed.

Results

Between 2007/8 and 2009/10, average admission rates for people aged 85 years and over rose by 5.5% annually in deteriorating sites and fell by 1% annually in improving sites. During the period under examination, the population aged 85 years and over in deteriorating sites increased by 3.4%, compared with 1.3% in improving sites. In deteriorating sites, there were problems with general practitioner access, pressures on emergency departments and a lack of community-based alternatives to admission. However, the most striking difference between improving and deteriorating sites was not the presence or absence of specific services, but the extent to which integration within and between types of service had been achieved. There were also overwhelming differences in leadership, culture and strategic development at the system level. The final list of recommendations emphasises the importance of issues such as maximising integration of services, strategic leadership and adopting a system-wide approach to reconfiguration.

Conclusions

Rising admission rates for older people were seen in places where several parts of the system were under strain. Places which had stemmed the rising tide of admissions had done so through strong, stable leadership, a shared vision and strategy, and common values across the system.

Future work

Research on individual components of care for older people needs to take account of their impact on the system as a whole. Areas where more evidence is needed include the impact of improving access and continuity in primary care, the optimal capacity for intermediate care and how the frail elderly can best be managed in emergency departments.

Study registration

UK Clinical Reasearch Network 12960.

Funding details

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Explaining variation in emergency admissions: a mixed-methods study of emergency and urgent care systems

Background

Recent increases in emergency admission rates have caused concern. Some emergency admissions may be avoidable if services in the emergency and urgent care system are available and accessible. A set of 14 conditions, likely to be rich in avoidable emergency admissions, was identified by expert consensus.

Objective

We aimed to understand variation in avoidable emergency admissions between different emergency and urgent care systems in England.

Methods

The design was a sequential mixed-methods study in three phases. In phase 1 we calculated an age- and sex-adjusted avoidable admission rate for 2008–11. We located routine data on characteristics of emergency and urgent care systems and used linear regression to explain variation in avoidable admissions rates in 150 systems. In phase 2 we undertook in-depth case studies in six systems to identify further factors. A key part of these case studies was interviews with commissioners, service providers and patient representatives, totalling 82 interviews. In phase 3 we returned to the linear regression to test further factors identified in the case studies.

Results

The 14 conditions accounted for 3,273,395 admissions in 2008–11 (22% of all emergency admissions). The mean age- and sex-adjusted admission rate was 2258 per year per 100,000 population, with a 3.4-fold variation between systems (1268–4359). Characteristics of the population explained the majority of variation: deprivation explained 72% of variation, with urban/rural status explaining 3% more. Systems serving populations with high levels of deprivation and in urban areas had high rates of potentially avoidable admissions. Interviewees described the complexity of deprivation, representing high levels of morbidity, low awareness of alternative services to emergency departments and high expressed need for immediate access to urgent care. Factors related to emergency departments (EDs), hospitals, emergency ambulance services and general practice explained a further 10% of variation in avoidable admissions. Systems with high, potentially avoidable, admission rates had high rates of acute beds (suggesting supply-induced demand), high rates of attendance at EDs (which have been associated with poor perceived access to general practice), high rates of conversion from ED attendances to admissions, and low rates of non-transport to emergency departments by emergency ambulances. The six case studies revealed further possible explanations of variation: there was variation in how hospitals coded admissions; some systems focused proactively on admission avoidance whereas others were more interested in hospital discharge, for example use of multidisciplinary teams based at acute trusts; there were different levels of integration between different services such as health and social care, and acute and community trusts; and some systems faced more challenging problems around geographical boundaries operating for different services in the system. Interviewees often described admission as the easy or safe option.

Conclusions

Deprivation explained most of the variation in avoidable admission rates. Research is needed to understand the complex relationship between deprivation and avoidable admission, and to develop interventions tailored to avoid admissions from deprived communities. Standardisation of coding of admissions would reduce variation.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Service and Research Delivery programme.

Variation in emergency department admission rates in US children's hospitals

OBJECTIVE

To measure the hospital-level variation in admission rates for children receiving treatment of common pediatric illnesses across emergency departments (EDs) in US children's hospitals.

METHODS

We performed a multi-center cross sectional study of children presenting to the EDs of 35 pediatric tertiary-care hospitals participating in the Pediatric Health Information System (PHIS). Admission rates were calculated for visits occurring between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2012, associated with 1 of 7 common conditions, and corrected to adjust for hospital-level severity of illness. Conditions were selected systematically based on frequency of visits and admission rates.

RESULTS

A total of 1288706 ED encounters (13.8% of all encounters) were associated with 1 of the 7 conditions of interest. After adjusting for hospital-level severity, the greatest variation in admission rates was observed for concussion (range 5%-72%), followed by pneumonia (19%-69%), and bronchiolitis (19%-65%). The least variation was found among patients presenting with seizures (7%-37%) and kidney and urinary tract infections (6%-37%). Although variability existed in disease-specific admission rates, certain hospitals had consistently higher, and others consistently lower, admission rates.

CONCLUSIONS

We observed greater than threefold variation in severity-adjusted admission rates for common pediatric conditions across US children's hospitals. Although local practices and hospital-level factors may partly explain this variation, our findings highlight the need for greater focus on the standardization of decisions regarding admission.

What weekday? How acute? An analysis of reported planned and unplanned GP visits by older multi-morbid patients in the Patient Journey Record System database

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Timely access to general practitioner (GP) care is a recognized strategy to address avoidable hospitalization. Little is known about patients seeking planned (decided ahead) and unplanned (decided on day) GP visits. The Patient Journey Record System (PaJR) provides a biopsychosocial real-time monitoring and support service to chronically ill and older people over 65 who may be at risk of an avoidable hospital admission. This study aims to describe reported profiles associated with planned and unplanned GP visits during the week in the PaJR database of regular outbound phone calls made by Care Guides to multi-morbid older patients.

METHODS

One hundred fifty consecutive patients with one or more chronic condition (including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart/vascular disease, heart failure and/or diabetes), one or more hospital admission in previous year, and consecutively recruited from hospital discharge, out-of-hour care and GP practices comprised the study sample. Using a semistructured script, Care Guides telephoned the patients approximately every 3 week days, and entered call data into the PaJR database in 2011. The PaJR project identified and prompted unplanned visits according to its algorithms. Logistic regression modelling and descriptive statistics identified significant predictors of planned and unplanned visits and patterns of GP visits on weekdays reported in calls.

RESULTS

In 5096 telephone calls, unplanned versus planned GP visits were predicted by change in health state, significant symptom concerns, poor self-rated health, bodily pain and concerns about caregiver or intimates. Calls not reporting visits had significantly fewer of these features. Planned visits were associated with general and medication concerns, reduced social participation and feeling down. Planned visits were highest on Monday and trended downwards to Fridays. Unplanned visits were reported at the same rate each weekday and more frequently when the interval between calls was ≥3 days. The PaJR project Care Guides advised patients to make unplanned visits in 6.3% of calls and advised planned GP visits in 2.5% of calls.

CONCLUSION

Unplanned GP visits consistently indicated a significant change to worse health with planned visits presenting less acuity in this study of older multi-morbid patients in general practice, when monitored by regular calls at about every 3 days. The PaJR study actively prompted GP visits according to its algorithms. Assessing and predicting acuity in older multi-morbid patients appears to be a promising strategy to improve access to primary care, and thus to reducing avoidable hospital utilization. Further research is needed to investigate the topic on a wider scale.

Hospital characteristics affecting potentially avoidable emergency admissions: national ecological study

Some emergency admissions can be avoided if acute exacerbations of health problems are managed by emergency and urgent care services without resorting to admission to a hospital bed. In England, these services include hospitals, emergency ambulance, and a range of primary and community services. The aim was to identify whether characteristics of hospitals affect potentially avoidable emergency admission rates. An age-sex adjusted rate of admission for 14 conditions rich in avoidable emergency admissions was calculated for 129 hospitals in England for 2008-2011. Twenty-two per cent (3,273,395/14,998,773) of emergency admissions were classed as potentially avoidable, with threefold variation between hospitals. Explanatory factors of this variation included those which hospital managers could not control (demand for hospital emergency departments) and those which they could control (supply in terms of numbers of acute beds in the hospital, and management of non-emergency and emergency patients within the hospital). Avoidable admission rates were higher for hospitals with higher emergency department attendance rates, higher numbers of acute beds per 1000 catchment population and higher conversion rates from emergency department attendance to admission. Hospital managers may be able to reduce avoidable emergency admissions by reducing supply of acute beds and conversion rates from emergency department attendance.