Exploring the relationship between general practice characteristics, and attendance at walk-in centres, minor injuries units and EDs in England 2012/2013: a cross-sectional study

Free-for-all: Does crowding impact outcomes because hospital emergency departments do not prioritise effectively?

Unexpected peaks in volumes of attendances at hospital emergency departments (EDs) have been found to affect waiting times, intensity of care and outcomes. We ask whether these effects of ED crowding on patients are caused by poor clinical prioritisation or a quality-quantity trade-off generated by a binding capacity constraint. We study the effects of crowding created by lower-severity patients on the outcomes of approximately 13 million higher-severity patients attending the 140 public EDs in England between April 2016 and March 2017. Our identification approach relies on high-dimensional fixed effects to account for planned capacity. Unexpected demand from low-severity patients has very limited effects on the care provided to higher-severity patients throughout their entire pathway in ED. Detrimental effects of crowding caused by low-severity patients materialise only at very high levels of unexpected demand, suggesting that binding resource constraints impact patient care only when demand greatly exceeds the ED's expectations. These effects are smaller than those caused by crowding induced by higher-severity patients, suggesting an efficient prioritisation of incoming patients in EDs.

Evaluation of different models of general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments: a mixed-methods realist evaluation

Background

Emergency healthcare services are under intense pressure to meet increasing patient demands. Many patients presenting to emergency departments could be managed by general practitioners in general practitioner-emergency department service models.

Objectives

To evaluate the effectiveness, safety, patient experience and system implications of the different general practitioner-emergency department models.

Design

Mixed-methods realist evaluation.

Methods

Phase 1 (2017-8), to understand current practice: rapid realist literature review, national survey and follow-up key informant interviews, national stakeholder event and safety data analysis. Phase 2 (2018-21), to collect and analyse qualitative (observations, interviews) and quantitative data (time series analysis); cost-consequences analysis of routine data; and case site data for 'marker condition' analysis from a purposive sample of 13 case sites in England and Wales. Phase 3 (2021-2), to conduct mixed-methods analysis for programme theory and toolkit development.

Results

General practitioners commonly work in emergency departments, but delivery models vary widely in terms of the scope of the general practitioner role and the scale of the general practitioner service. We developed a taxonomy to describe general practitioner-emergency department service models (Integrated with the emergency department service, Parallel within the emergency department, Outside the emergency department on the hospital site) and present a programme theory as principal output of the study to describe how these service models were observed to operate. Routine data were of variable quality, limiting our analysis. Time series analysis demonstrated trends across intervention sites for: increased time spent in the emergency department; increased emergency department attendances and reattendances; and mixed results for hospital admissions. Evidence on patient experience was limited but broadly supportive; we identified department-level processes to optimise the safety of general practitioner-emergency department models.

Limitations

The quality, heterogeneity and extent of routine emergency department data collection during the study period limited the conclusions. Recruitment was limited by criteria for case sites (time series requirements) and individual patients (with 'marker conditions'). Pandemic and other pressures limited data collection for marker condition analysis. Data collected and analysed were pre pandemic; new approaches such as 'telephone first' and their relevance to our findings remains unexplored.

Conclusion

Findings suggest that general practitioner-emergency department service models do not meet the aim of reducing the overall emergency department waiting times and improving patient flow with limited evidence of cost savings. Qualitative data indicated that general practitioners were often valued as members of the wider emergency department team. We have developed a toolkit, based on our findings, to provide guidance for implementing and delivering general practitioner-emergency department services.

Future work

The emergency care data set has since been introduced across England to help standardise data collection to facilitate further research. We would advocate the systematic capture of patient experience measures and patient-reported outcome measures as part of routine care. More could be done to support the development of the general practitioner in emergency department role, including a core set of competencies and governance structure, to reflect the different general practitioner-emergency department models and to evaluate the effectiveness and cost effectiveness to guide future policy.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42017069741.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health and Social Care Delivery Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/145/04) and is published in full in Health and Social Care Delivery Research; Vol. 12, No. 10. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Overseas general practitioners (GPs) and prescription behaviour in England

The UK imports many doctors from abroad, where medical training and experience may differ. This study aims to understand how drug prescription behaviour varies in English GP practices with higher shares of foreign-trained GPs. Results indicate that in general prac- tices with a high proportion of GPs trained outside the UK, there are higher prescriptions for antibiotics, mental health medication, analgesics, antacids, and statins, while controlling for patient and practice characteristics. However, we found no significant impact on pa- tient satisfaction or unplanned hospitalisations, suggesting that this behaviour may be due to over-prescribing. Identifying differences in prescribing habits amongst GPs is crucial in deter- mining best policies for ensuring consistent services across GP practices and reducing health inequalities.

Does the opening of an emergency department influence hospital admissions? Evidence from French private hospitals

Although operating an emergency department (ED) can influence general admission activity of hospitals, most articles that analyze hospital care ignore the potential spillover of emergency activity. In this paper, we examine the consequences of a French reform that encouraged the creation of EDs within private-for-profit (PFP) hospitals in order to decrease congestion in EDs. We use administrative panel data on 365 French PFP hospitals observed between 2002 and 2012. Specifications including hospital fixed-effects are estimated to examine the impact of an ED opening on private hospitals' admission activity, namely inpatient and day-care admissions (ED visits are excluded, but patients admitted following an ED visit are included). We control for shocks that can impact demand for care in hospitals, and we estimate yearly changes before and after the opening. We find that an ED opening is followed by an increase in the number and proportion of inpatient admissions, and by an increase in the length of inpatient stays. A transitory increase in the bed occupancy rate is also observed. In many countries, public and private hospitals compete to some extent. The former provide a public service, while the latter are profit-maximizers that are allowed to specialize in profitable activities. They generally focus on day-care admissions. We provide empirical evidence that private hospitals experience a significant change in the composition of their admissions when they start providing emergency care. Opening an ED creates a new non-selective entryway to private hospitals, resulting in admissions of inpatients with health problems that are more severe. Hence, involving PFP hospitals in the provision of emergency care is likely to make the structure of admissions of private hospitals closer to that of public hospitals.

Geographical variation of emergency hospital admissions for ambulatory care sensitive conditions in older adults in Ireland 2012-2016

OBJECTIVE

Ambulatory care sensitive (ACS) conditions are those for which intensified primary care management could potentially prevent emergency admissions. This study aimed to quantify geographical variation in emergency admissions with ACS conditions in older adults and explore factors influencing variation.

DESIGN

Repeated cross-sectional study.

SETTING

34 public hospitals in the Ireland.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults aged ≥65 years hospitalised for seven ACS conditions between 2012 and 2016 (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, congestive heart failure (CHF), diabetes, angina, pyelonephritis/urinary tract infections (UTIs), dehydration and pneumonia).

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE

Age and sex standardised emergency admission rates (SARs) per 1000 older adults.

ANALYSIS

Age and sex SARs were calculated for 21 geographical areas. Extremal quotients and systematic components of variance (SCV) quantified variation. Spatial regression analyses was conducted for SARs with unemployment, urban population proportion, hospital turnover, supply of general practitioners (GPs), and supply of hospital-based specialists as explanatory variables.

RESULTS

Over time, an increase in UTI/pyelonephritis SARs was seen while SARs for angina and CHF decreased. Geographic variation was moderate overall and high for dehydration and angina (SCV=11.7-50.0). For all conditions combined, multivariable analysis showed lower urban population (adjusted coefficient: -2.2 (-3.4 to -0.9, p<0.01)), lower GP supply (adjusted coefficient: -5.5 (-8.2 to -2.9, p<0.01)) and higher geriatrician supply (adjusted coefficient: 3.7 (0.5 to 6.9, p=0.02)) were associated with higher SARs.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should evaluate methods of preventing admissions for ACS conditions among older adults, including how resources are allocated at a local level.

How sensitive are avoidable emergency department attendances to primary care quality? Retrospective observational study

Background

Improvements in primary care quality are often proposed as a solution to rises in emergency department (ED) attendances. However, there is little agreement on what constitutes an avoidable attendance, and the relationship between primary care quality and ED demand remains poorly understood.

Objective

To estimate the size of the associations between primary care quality and volumes of ED attendances classified as avoidable.

Methods

Retrospective observational study of all attendances at EDs in England during 2015/2016, applying three definitions of avoidable attendance. We linked practice-level counts of attendances to seven measures of primary care access, patient experience and clinical quality for 7521 practices. We used count data regressions to associate attendance counts with levels of quality. We then calculated proportions of attendances associated with levels of primary care quality below the national average.

Results

Attendance volumes were negatively related to three of the seven quality measures. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for all attendances associated with 10 percentage-point differences in quality were 0.987 for clinical quality and 0.987 for easy telephone access and 0.978 for ability to get an appointment. These associations were relatively stronger for narrower definitions of avoidable attendances (for the narrowest definition, IRRs=0.966, 0.976 and 0.934, respectively) but represented fewer attendances in absolute terms. 341 000 (2.4%) attendances were associated with levels of primary care quality below the national average in 2015/2016.

Conclusion

ED attendances are sensitive to primary care quality, but magnitudes of these associations are small. Attendances are much less responsive to differences in primary care quality than indicated by estimates of the prevalence of avoidable attendances. This may explain the failure of initiatives to reduce attendances through primary care improvements.

Identifying the predictors of avoidable emergency department attendance after contact with the NHS 111 phone service: analysis of 16.6 million calls to 111 in England in 2015-2017

OBJECTIVES

To measure the frequency of patients making avoidable emergency department (ED) attendances after contact with NHS 111 and to examine whether these attendances can be predicted reliably.

DESIGN

Analysis of 16 563 946 calls made to 111, where each call was linked with a record of whether the patient attended ED within 24 hours.

SETTING

All regions of England from March 2015 to October 2017.

PARTICIPANTS AND DATA

Our main regression model used a sample of 10 954 783 calls, each with detailed patient-level information.

MAIN OUTCOME

Whether patients made an unadvised, non-urgent type 1 ED ('avoidable') attendance within 24 hours of calling 111.

RESULTS

Of 16 563 946 calls to 111, 12 894 561 (77.8%) were not advised to go to ED (ie, they were advised to either attend primary care, attend another non-ED healthcare service or to self-care). Of the calls where the patient was not advised to go to the ED, 691 783 (5.4%) resulted in the patient making an avoidable ED attendance within 24 hours. Among other factors, calls were less likely to result in these attendances when they received clinical input (adjusted OR 0.52, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.53) but were more likely when the patient was female (OR 1.07, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.08) or aged 0-4 years (OR 1.34, 95% CI 1.33 to 1.35).

CONCLUSIONS

For every 20 calls where 111 did not advise people to attend the ED, 1 resulted in avoidable ED attendance within 24 hours. These avoidable attendances could be predicted, to a certain extent, based on call characteristics. It may be possible to use this information to help 111 call handlers identify which callers are at higher risk of these attendances.

The impact of general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments: a rapid realist review

OBJECTIVES

Worldwide, emergency healthcare systems are under intense pressure from ever-increasing demand and evidence is urgently needed to understand how this can be safely managed. An estimated 10%-43% of emergency department patients could be treated by primary care services. In England, this has led to a policy proposal and £100 million of funding (US$130 million), for emergency departments to stream appropriate patients to a co-located primary care facility so they are 'free to care for the sickest patients'. However, the research evidence to support this initiative is weak.

DESIGN

Rapid realist literature review.

SETTING

Emergency departments.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Articles describing general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments.

AIM

To develop context-specific theories that explain how and why general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments affect: patient flow; patient experience; patient safety and the wider healthcare system.

RESULTS

Ninety-six articles contributed data to theory development sourced from earlier systematic reviews, updated database searches (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane DSR & CRCT, DARE, HTA Database, BSC, PsycINFO and SCOPUS) and citation tracking. We developed theories to explain: how staff interpret the streaming system; different roles general practitioners adopt in the emergency department setting (traditional, extended, gatekeeper or emergency clinician) and how these factors influence patient (experience and safety) and organisational (demand and cost-effectiveness) outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple factors influence the effectiveness of emergency department streaming to general practitioners; caution is needed in embedding the policy until further research and evaluation are available. Service models that encourage the traditional general practitioner approach may have shorter process times for non-urgent patients; however, there is little evidence that this frees up emergency department staff to care for the sickest patients. Distinct primary care services offering increased patient choice may result in provider-induced demand. Economic evaluation and safety requires further research.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017069741.

Meningococcal vaccination in primary care amongst adolescents in North West England: an ecological study investigating associations with general practice characteristics

BACKGROUND

In 2015 the meningococcal ACWY (MenACWY) vaccination was introduced amongst adolescents in England following increased incidence and mortality associated with meningococcal group W.

METHODS

MenACWY vaccination uptake data for 17-18 years old and students delivered in primary care were obtained for 20 National Health Service clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) via the ImmForm vaccination system. Data on general practice characteristics, encompassing demographics and patient satisfaction variables, were extracted from the National General Practice Profiles resource. Univariable analysis of the associations between practice characteristics and vaccination was performed, followed by multivariable negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

Data were utilized from 587 general practices, accounting for ~8% of all general practices in England. MenACWY vaccination uptake varied from 20.8% to 46.8% across the CCGs evaluated. Upon multivariable regression, vaccination uptake increased with increasing percentage of patients from ethnic minorities, increasing percentage of patients aged 15-24 years, increasing percentage of patients that would recommend their practice and total Quality and Outcomes Framework achievement for the practice. Conversely, vaccination uptake decreased with increasing deprivation.

CONCLUSIONS

This study has identified several factors independently associated with MenACWY vaccination in primary care. These findings will enable a targeted approach to improve general practice-level vaccination uptake.

What are the social predictors of accident and emergency attendance in disadvantaged neighbourhoods? Results from a cross-sectional household health survey in the north west of England

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to identify the most important determinants of accident and emergency (A&E) attendance in disadvantaged areas.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

A total of 3510 residents from 20 disadvantaged neighbourhoods in the North West Coast area in England completed a comprehensive public health survey.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Participants were asked to complete general background information, as well as information about their physical health, mental health, lifestyle, social issues, housing and environment, work and finances, and healthcare service usage. Only one resident per household could take part in the survey. Poisson regression analysis was employed to assess the predictors of A&E attendance frequency in the previous 12 months.

RESULTS

31.6% of the sample reported having attended A&E in the previous 12 months, ranging from 1 to 95 visits. Controlling for demographic and health factors, not being in employment and living in poor quality housing increased the likelihood of attending an A&E service. Service access was also found to be predictive of A&E attendance insofar as there were an additional 18 fewer A&E attendances per 100 population for each kilometre closer a person lived to a general practitioner (GP) practice, and 3 fewer attendances per 100 population for each kilometre further a person lived from an A&E department.

CONCLUSIONS

This is one of the first surveys to explore a comprehensive set of socio-economic factors as well as proximity to both GP and A&E services as predictors of A&E attendance in disadvantaged areas. Findings from this study suggest the need to address both socioeconomic issues, such as employment and housing quality, as well as structural issues, such as public transport and access to primary care, to reduce the current burden on A&E departments.

Patient experience of general practice and use of emergency hospital services in England: regression analysis of national cross-sectional time series data

BACKGROUND

The UK Government has introduced several national policies to improve access to primary care. We examined associations between patient experience of general practice and rates of visits to accident and emergency (A&E) departments and emergency hospital admissions in England.

METHODS

The study included 8124 general practices between 2011-2012 and 2013-2014. Outcome measures were annual rates of A&E visits and emergency admissions by general practice population, according to administrative hospital records. Explanatory variables included three patient experience measures from the General Practice Patient Survey: practice-level means of experience of making an appointment, satisfaction with opening hours and overall experience (on 0-100 scales). The main analysis used random-effects Poisson regression for cross-sectional time series. Five sensitivity analyses examined changes in model specification.

RESULTS

Mean practice-level rates of A&E visits and emergency admissions increased from 2011-2012 to 2013-2014 (310.3-324.4 and 98.8-102.9 per 1000 patients). Each patient experience measure decreased; for example, mean satisfaction with opening hours was 79.4 in 2011-2012 and 76.6 in 2013-2014. In the adjusted regression analysis, an SD increase in experience of making appointments (equal to 9 points) predicted decreases of 1.8% (95% CI -2.4% to -1.2%) in A&E visit rates and 1.4% (95% CI -1.9% to -0.9%) in admission rates. This equalled 301 174 fewer A&E visits and 74 610 fewer admissions nationally per year. Satisfaction with opening hours and overall experience were not consistently associated with either outcome measure across the main and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Associations between patient experience of general practice and use of emergency hospital services were small or inconsistent. In England, realistic short-term improvements in patient experience of general practice may only have modest effects on A&E visits and emergency admissions.

Continuity of Primary Care and Emergency Hospital Admissions Among Older Patients in England

PURPOSE

Secondary health care services have been under considerable pressure in England as attendance rates increase, resulting in longer waiting times and greater demands on staff. This study's aim was to examine the association between continuity of care and risk of emergency hospital admission among older adults.

METHODS

We analyzed records from 10,000 patients aged 65 years and older in 2012 within 297 English general practices obtained from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked with Hospital Episode Statistics. We used the Bice and Boxerman (BB) index and the appointed general practitioner index (last general practitioner consulted before hospitalization) to quantify patient-physician continuity. The BB index was used in a prospective cohort approach to assess impact of continuity on risk of admission. Both indices were used in a separate retrospective nested case-control approach to test the effect of changing physician on the odds of hospital admission in the following 30 days.

RESULTS

In the prospective cohort analysis, the BB index showed a graded, non-significant inverse relationship of continuity of care with risk of emergency hospital admission, although the hazard ratio for patients experiencing least continuity was 2.27 (95% CI, 1.37-3.76) compared with those having complete continuity. In the retrospective nested case-control analysis, we found a graded inverse relationship between continuity of care and emergency hospital admission for both BB and appointed general practitioner indices: for the latter, the odds ratio for those experiencing least continuity was 2.32 (95% CI, 1.48-3.63) relative to those experiencing most continuity.

CONCLUSIONS

Marked discontinuity of care might contribute to increased unplanned hospital admissions among patients aged 65 years and older. Schemes to enhance continuity of care have the potential to reduce hospital admissions.

Exploring the relationship between general practice characteristics and attendance at Walk-in Centres, Minor Injuries Units and Emergency Departments in England 2009/10-2012/2013: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The UK National Health Service Emergency Departments (ED) have recently faced increasing attendance rates. This study investigated associations of general practice and practice population characteristics with emergency care service attendance rates.

METHODS

A longitudinal design with practice-level measures of access and continuity of care, patient population demographics and use of emergency care for the financial years 2009/10 to 2012/13. The main outcome measures were self-referred discharged ED attendance rate, and combined self-referred discharged ED, self-referred Walk-in Centre (WiC) and self-referred Minor Injuries Unit (MIU) attendance rate per 1000 patients. Multilevel models estimated adjusted regression coefficients for relationships between patients' emergency attendance rates and patients' reported satisfaction with opening hours and waiting time at the practice, proportion of patients having a preferred GP, and use of WiC and MIU, both between practices, and within practices over time.

RESULTS

Practice characteristics associated with higher ED attendance rates included lower percentage of patients satisfied with waiting time (0.22 per 1% decrease, 95%CI 0.02 to 0.43) and lower percentage having a preferred GP (0.12 per 1% decrease, 95%CI 0.02 to 0.21). Population influences on higher attendance included more elderly, more female and more unemployed patients, and lower male life-expectancy and urban conurbation location. Net reductions in ED attendance were only seen for practices whose WiC or MIU attendance was high, above the 60th centile for MIU and above the 75th centile for WiC. Combined emergency care attendance fell over time if more patients within a practice were satisfied with opening hours (-0.26 per 1% increase, 95%CI -0.45 to -0.08).

CONCLUSION

Practices with more patients satisfied with waiting time, having a preferred GP, and using MIU and WIC services, had lower ED attendance. Increases over time in attendance at MIUs, and patient satisfaction with opening hours was associated with reductions in service use.

Why do patients seek primary medical care in emergency departments? An ethnographic exploration of access to general practice

OBJECTIVES

To describe how processes of primary care access influence decisions to seek help at the emergency department (ED).

DESIGN

Ethnographic case study combining non-participant observation, informal and formal interviewing.

SETTING

Six general practitioner (GP) practices located in three commissioning organisations in England.

PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS

Reception areas at each practice were observed over the course of a working week (73 hours in total). Practice documents were collected and clinical and non-clinical staff were interviewed (n=19). Patients with recent ED use, or a carer if aged 16 and under, were interviewed (n=29).

RESULTS

Past experience of accessing GP care recursively informed patient decisions about where to seek urgent care, and difficulties with access were implicit in patient accounts of ED use. GP practices had complicated, changeable systems for appointments. This made navigating appointment booking difficult for patients and reception staff, and engendered a mistrust of the system. Increasingly, the telephone was the instrument of demand management, but there were unintended consequences for access. Some patient groups, such as those with English as an additional language, were particularly disadvantaged, and the varying patient and staff semantic of words like 'urgent' and 'emergency' was exacerbated during telephone interactions. Poor integration between in-hours and out-of-hours care and patient perceptions of the quality of care accessible at their GP practice also informed ED use.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides important insight into the implicit role of primary care access on the use of ED. Discourses around 'inappropriate' patient demand neglect to recognise that decisions about where to seek urgent care are based on experiential knowledge. Simply speeding up access to primary care or increasing its volume is unlikely to alleviate rising ED use. Systems for accessing care need to be transparent, perceptibly fair and appropriate to the needs of diverse patient groups.