Exploring whether primary care networks can contribute to the national goal of reducing health inequalities: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Significant health inequalities exist in England. Primary care networks (PCNs), comprised of GP practices, were introduced in England in 2019 with funding linked to membership. PCNs have been tasked with tackling health inequalities.

AIM

To consider how the design and introduction of PCNs might influence their ability to tackle health inequalities.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A sequential mixed-methods study of PCNs in England.

METHOD

Linear regression of annual PCN-allocated funding per workload-weighted patient on income deprivation score from 2019-2023 was used. Qualitative interviews and observations of PCNs and PCN staff were undertaken across seven PCN sites in England (July 2020-March 2022).

RESULTS

Across 1243 networks in 2019-2020, a 10% higher level of income deprivation resulted in £0.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] = £0.25 to £0.37), 4.50%, less funding per weighted patient. In 2022-2023, the same difference in deprivation resulted in £0.16 (95% CI = £0.11 to £0.21), 0.60%, more funding. Qualitative interviews highlighted that, although there were requirements for PCNs to tackle health inequalities, the policy design, and PCN internal relationships and maturity, shaped and sometimes restricted how PCNs approached this task locally.

CONCLUSION

Allocated PCN funding has become more pro-poor over time, suggesting that the need to account for deprivation within funding models is understood by policymakers. The following additional approaches have been highlighted that could support PCNs to tackle inequalities: better management support; encouragement and support to redistribute funding internally to support practices serving more deprived populations; and greater specificity in service requirements.

The impact of devolution on local health systems: Evidence from Greater Manchester, England

Devolution and decentralisation policies involving health and other government sectors have been promoted with a view to improve efficiency and equity in local service provision. Evaluations of these reforms have focused on specific health or care measures, but little is known about their full impact on local health systems. We evaluated the impact of devolution in Greater Manchester (England) on multiple outcomes using a whole system approach. We estimated the impact of devolution until February 2020 on 98 measures of health system performance, using the generalised synthetic control method and adjusting for multiple hypothesis testing. We selected measures from existing monitoring frameworks to populate the WHO Health System Performance Assessment framework. The included measures captured information on health system functions, intermediatory objectives, final goals, and social determinants of health. We identified which indicators were targeted in response to devolution from an analysis of 170 health policy intervention documents. Life expectancy (0.233 years, S.E. 0.012) and healthy life expectancy (0.603 years, S.E. 0.391) increased more in GM than in the estimated synthetic control group following devolution. These increases were driven by improvements in public health, primary care, hospital, and adult social care services as well as factors associated with social determinants of health, including a reduction in alcohol-related admissions (-110.1 admission per 100,000, S.E. 9.07). In contrast, the impact on outpatient, mental health, maternity, and dental services was mixed. Devolution was associated with improved population health, driven by improvements in health services and wider social determinants of health. These changes occurred despite limited devolved powers over health service resources suggesting that other mechanisms played an important role, including the allocation of sustainability and transformation funding and the alignment of decision-making across health, social care, and wider public services in the region.

How do hospitals respond to payment unbundling for diagnostic imaging of suspected cancer patients?

Payments for some diagnostic scans undertaken in outpatient settings were unbundled from Diagnosis Related Group based payments in England in April 2013 to address under-provision. Unbundled scans attracted additional payments of between £45 and £748 directly following the reform. We examined the effect on utilization of these scans for patients with suspected cancer. We also explored whether any detected effects represented real increases in use of scans or better coding of activity. We applied difference-in-differences regression to patient-level data from Hospital Episodes Statistics for 180 NHS hospital Trusts in England, between April 2010 and March 2018. We also explored heterogeneity in recorded use of scans before and after the unbundling at hospital Trust-level. Use of scans increased by 0.137 scans per patient following unbundling, a 134% relative increase. This increased annual national provider payments by £79.2 million. Over 15% of scans recorded after the unbundling were at providers that previously recorded no scans, suggesting some of the observed increase in activity reflected previous under-coding. Hospitals recorded substantial increases in diagnostic imaging for suspected cancer in response to payment unbundling. Results suggest that the reform also encouraged improvements in recording, so the real increase in testing is likely lower than detected.

Free-for-all: Does crowding impact outcomes because hospital emergency departments do not prioritise effectively?

Unexpected peaks in volumes of attendances at hospital emergency departments (EDs) have been found to affect waiting times, intensity of care and outcomes. We ask whether these effects of ED crowding on patients are caused by poor clinical prioritisation or a quality-quantity trade-off generated by a binding capacity constraint. We study the effects of crowding created by lower-severity patients on the outcomes of approximately 13 million higher-severity patients attending the 140 public EDs in England between April 2016 and March 2017. Our identification approach relies on high-dimensional fixed effects to account for planned capacity. Unexpected demand from low-severity patients has very limited effects on the care provided to higher-severity patients throughout their entire pathway in ED. Detrimental effects of crowding caused by low-severity patients materialise only at very high levels of unexpected demand, suggesting that binding resource constraints impact patient care only when demand greatly exceeds the ED's expectations. These effects are smaller than those caused by crowding induced by higher-severity patients, suggesting an efficient prioritisation of incoming patients in EDs.

Associations between corporate ownership of primary care providers and doctor wellbeing, workload, access, organizational efficiency, and service quality

Traditionally, in many countries general practices have been privately-owned independent small businesses. However, the last three decades has seen the rise of large corporate medical groups defined as private companies which are able to have non-GP shareholders and with branches across many locations. The greater prominence of profit motives may have implications for costs, access to care and quality of care. We estimate that 45% of GPs in Australia worked in a practice that was a private company, and within this group over one third (19.9% of total) worked in a corporate medical group (a private company with 10 or more practice locations). We examine the association between being in a corporate medical group and 19 outcomes classified into five groups: GP wellbeing, workload, patient access, organizational efficiency, and service quality. GPs who worked in such groups were more likely to be older, qualified overseas, and to have a conscientious personality. There was mixed evidence on GPs wellbeing, with GPs in corporate medical groups reporting a higher turnover of GPs but similar levels of job satisfaction. GP workload was similar in terms of hours worked and after hours work but they reported a lower work-life balance. Patient access was better in terms of lower fees charged to patients but there was weak evidence that patients waited longer. GPs in corporate medical groups reported higher organisational efficiency because GPs spent less time spent on administration and management, had more nurses per GP, but despite this GPs were more likely to undertake tasks someone less qualified could do suggesting that nurses were complements not substitutes. There were no differences in service quality (teaching, patient complaints, consultation length, patients seen per hour). Corporate medical groups have become a substantial part of primary care provision in Australia. There is evidence they are more efficient, patient access is better with lower out of pocket costs and there are no differences in our measures service quality, but concerns remain about GP's wellbeing and work-life balance. Further research is needed on continuity of care and patient reported experiences and health outcomes.

Economic evaluation of a water fluoridation scheme in Cumbria, UK

OBJECTIVES

The addition of fluoride to community drinking water supplies has been a long-standing public health intervention to improve dental health. However, the evidence of cost-effectiveness in the UK currently lacks a contemporary focus, being limited to a period with higher incidence of caries. A water fluoridation scheme in West Cumbria, United Kingdom, provided a unique opportunity to study the contemporary impact of water fluoridation. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of water fluoridation over a 5-6 years follow-up period in two distinct cohorts: children exposed to water fluoridation in utero and those exposed from the age of 5.

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness was summarized employing incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER, cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained). Costs included those from the National Health Service (NHS) and local authority perspective, encompassing capital and running costs of water fluoridation, as well as NHS dental activity. The measure of health benefit was the QALY, with utility determined using the Child Health Utility 9-Dimension questionnaire. To account for uncertainty, estimates of net cost and outcomes were bootstrapped (10 000 bootstraps) to generate cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and sensitivity analysis performed with alternative specifications.

RESULTS

There were 306 participants in the birth cohort (189 and 117 in the non-fluoridated and fluoridated groups, respectively) and 271 in the older school cohort (159 and 112, respectively). In both cohorts, there was evidence of small gains in QALYs for the fluoridated group compared to the non-fluoridated group and reductions in NHS dental service cost that exceeded the cost of fluoridation. For both cohorts and across all sensitivity analyses, there were high probabilities (>62%) of water fluoridation being cost-effective with a willingness to pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis provides current economic evidence that water fluoridation is likely to be cost-effective. The findings contribute valuable contemporary evidence in support of the economic viability of water fluoridation scheme.

What remains after the money ends? Evidence on whether admission reductions continued following the largest health and social care integration programme in England

We study the long-term effects on hospital activity of a three-year national integration programme. We use administrative data spanning from 24 months before to 22 months after the programme, to estimate the effect of programme discontinuation using difference-in-differences method. Our results show that after programme discontinuation, emergency admissions were slower to increase in Vanguard compared to non-Vanguard sites. These effects were heterogeneous across sites, with greater reductions in care home Vanguard sites and concentrated among the older population. Care home Vanguards showed significant reductions beginning early in the programme but falling away more rapidly after programme discontinuation. Moreover, there were greater reductions for sites performing poorly before the programme. Overall, this suggests the effects of the integration programme might have been lagged but transitory, and more reliant on continued programme support.

Do Informal Care Recipients Internalise Carer Burden? Examining the Impact of Informal Care Receipt on Health Behaviours

BACKGROUND

Providing informal care has a negative effect on the caregiver's health and well-being, but little is known about how individuals respond to receiving informal care. Care recipients may improve their health behaviours to minimise the onerousness of caregiving and the stress faced by their carer from seeing a loved one in ill-health.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to examine whether informal care recipients internalise the potential for carer spillovers through changes in health behaviours.

METHODS

We used data from 3250 older adults with care needs who took part in the UK Household Longitudinal Study between 2017 and 2019. We examined the response to informal care receipt in terms of the probability of engaging in four health behaviours: healthy diet, physical activity, smoking and alcohol consumption. We estimated average treatment effects using regression adjustment with inverse probability treatment weights, comparing individuals that received informal care to those receiving either formal or no care.

RESULTS

We found that informal care receipt increased the probability of refraining from negative health behaviours (smoking and alcohol consumption) but reduced the probability of engaging in positive health behaviours (eating fruits and/or vegetables and physical activity).

CONCLUSIONS

The asymmetric effects detected suggest that the underlying mechanisms are different, and care recipients may be engaging in risk and effort compensation between negative and positive health behaviours. Failure to account for the behavioural responses from informal care recipients may lead to under-estimation or over-estimation of the extent of caregiving burden and the effectiveness of interventions impacting informal carers.

Level of attendance at the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND

We evaluated the dose-response relationship between the level of attendance at the English National Health Service Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes amongst individuals participating in the programme.

METHODS

We linked data on DPP attendance for 51,803 individuals that were referred to the programme between 1st June 2016 and 31st March 2018 and attended at least one programme session, with primary care records of type 2 diabetes diagnoses from the National Diabetes Audit up to 31st March 2020. Weibull survival regressions were used to estimate the association between the number of programme sessions attended and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

Risk of developing type 2 diabetes declined significantly for individuals attending seven of the 13 programme sessions and continued to decline further up to 12 sessions. Attending the full 13 sessions was associated with a 45.5% lower risk (HR: 0.545 95% CI: 0.455 to 0.652). Compared to individuals that only partially attended the programme, attendance at 60% or more of the sessions was associated with a 30.7% lower risk of type 2 diabetes (HR: 0.693 95% CI: 0.645 to 0.745).

CONCLUSIONS

Reducing the risk of progression to type 2 diabetes through diabetes prevention programmes requires a minimum attendance level at seven of the 13 programme sessions (54%). Retaining participants beyond this minimum level yields further benefits in diabetes risk reduction. Commissioners may wish to consider altering provider payment schedules to incentivise higher retention levels beyond 60% of programme sessions.

Age-gender differences in the relationships between physical and mental health

Previous studies have identified that smoking, exercise and breadth of social interaction mediate the strong associations between physical and mental health. However, these studies have been restricted to older populations, have not explored differences by gender, and have not considered online social interaction. We explore how the effects of four mediators (exercise, smoking, in-person and online social interaction) of the two-way relationships between past and future physical and mental health vary across eight age and gender groups. We use data from a representative sample of the UK population consisting of 175,779 observations on 41,995 adults from Understanding Society (UKHLS) between 2009 and 2019. Within a mediation framework, we estimate the percentage of the total effects that can be explained by the proposed mediating factors. We show that exercise, smoking, in-person and online social interaction are significant mediators of the effect of mental health on future physical health. In-person social interaction is the largest of these, accounting for 2.3% of the total effect. Smoking, in-person and online interaction are significant mediators of the effect of physical health on future mental health. Again, in-person interaction is the largest of these, accounting for 3.0% of the total effect. The percentages of the total effects mediated by each factor differ substantially by age and gender. Seeking to avoid the harmful effects of poor physical health on future mental health should focus on increasing physical activity in older men, and on increasing in-person social interaction in both men and women. Seeking to avoid the harmful effects of poor mental health on future physical health should focus on increasing physical activity and in-person social interaction in older men and women, and on reducing smoking in younger men and women.

Evaluating whole system reforms: A structured approach for selecting multiple outcomes

Whole-system reforms, including devolution and integration of health and social care services, have the potential to impact multiple dimensions of health system performance. Most evaluations focus on a single or narrow subsets of outcomes amenable to change. This approach may not: (i) capture the overall effect of the reform, (ii) identify the mechanisms through which system-wide changes may have occurred, (iii) prevent post-hoc selection of outcomes based on significant results; and (iv) facilitate comparisons across settings. We propose a structured approach for selecting multiple quantitative outcome measures, which we apply for evaluating health and social care devolution in Greater Manchester, England. The approach consists of five-steps: (i) defining outcome domains based on a framework, in our case the World Health Organisation's Health System Performance Assessment Framework; (ii) reviewing performance metrics from national monitoring frameworks; (iii) excluding similar and condition specific outcomes; (iv) excluding outcomes with insufficient data; and (v) mapping implemented policies to identify a subset of targeted outcomes. We identified 99 outcomes, of which 57 were targeted. The proposed approach is detail and time-intensive, but useful for both researchers and policymakers to promote transparency in evaluations and facilitate the interpretation of findings and cross-settings comparisons.

Analysing changes to the flow of public funding within local health and care systems: An adaptation of the System of Health Accounts framework to a local health system in England

Financial flows relating to health care are routinely analysed at national and international level. They have rarely been systematically analysed at local level, despite sub-national variation due to population needs and decisions enacted by local organisations. We illustrate an adaptation of the System of Health Accounts framework to map the flow of public health and care funding within local systems, with an application for Greater Manchester (GM), an area in England which agreed a health and social care devolution deal with the central government in 2016. We analyse how financial flows changed in GM during the four years post-devolution, and whether spending was aligned with local ambitions to move towards prevention of ill-health and integration of health and social care. We find that GM decreased spending on public health by 15%, and increased spending on general practice by 0.1% in real terms. The share of total local expenditure paid to NHS Trusts for general and acute services increased from 70.3% to 71.6%, while that for community services decreased from 11.7% to 10.3%. Results suggest that GM may have experienced challenges in redirecting resources towards their goals. Mapping financial flows at a local level is a useful exercise to examine whether spending is aligned with system goals and highlight areas for further investigation.

Diabetes prevention at scale: Narrative review of findings and lessons from the DIPLOMA evaluation of the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme in England

AIMS

The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP) is a large-scale, England-wide behaviour change programme for people at high risk of progressing to type 2 diabetes. We summarise the findings of our six-year DIPLOMA evaluation of its implementation and impact and highlight insights for future programmes.

METHODS

Using qualitative interviews, document analysis, observation, surveys and large dataset analysis, eight interlinked work packages considered: equity of access; implementation; service delivery and fidelity; programme outcomes; comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness in reducing diabetes incidence; and patient decision making and experience.

RESULTS

Delivery of the NHS DPP encountered barriers across many aspects of the programme, and we identified inequalities in terms of the areas, organisations and patient populations most likely to engage with the programme. There was some loss of fidelity at all stages from commissioning to participant understanding. Despite these challenges, there was evidence of significant reductions in diabetes incidence at individual and population levels. The programme was cost-effective even within a short time period.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the challenge of translating research evidence into routine NHS delivery at scale, our findings suggest that an individual-level approach to the prevention of type 2 diabetes in a 'high-risk' population was more effective than usual care. By embedding evaluation with programme delivery and working closely with the NHS DPP team, we provided actionable insights for improving communications with potential participants, supporting primary care referral, honing the delivery model with better provider relationships and more patient choice, increasing understanding of behaviour change techniques, and enriching the educational and health coaching content.

Evaluating the Short-Term Costs and Benefits of a Nationwide Diabetes Prevention Programme in England: Retrospective Observational Study

BACKGROUND

Prevention programmes typically incur short-term costs and uncertain long-term benefits. We use the National Health Service (NHS) England Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS-DPP) to investigate whether behaviour change programmes may be cost-effective even within the short-term participation period.

METHODS

We analysed 384,611 referrals between June 2016 and March 2019. We estimated NHS costs using implementation costs and provider payments. We used linear regressions to relate utility changes to the number of sessions attended, based on responses to the five-level EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) at baseline and final session for 18,959 participants. We then calculated the corresponding quality-adjusted life year (QALY) change for all 384,611 referrals by combining the estimated regression coefficients with the observed level of attendance, with individuals that did not attend any programme sessions being assumed to experience zero benefit. In secondary analysis, we added weight change, recorded for 18,105 participants to the regression and applied predicted values to all referrals with missing weight change values estimated using multiple imputation with chained equations. We then estimated the cost-per-QALY generated.

RESULTS

Average cost per referral was £119 (standard deviation: £118; 2020 price year, UK £ Sterling). Each session attended was associated with a 0.0042 increase in utility (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.0025-0.0059). This generated 1,773 QALYs across all referrals (95% CI: 889-2,656). Cost-per-QALY was £24,929 (95% CI: £16,635-49,720) when implementation costs were excluded. Secondary analysis showed each session attended and kilogram of weight lost were associated with 0.0034 (95% CI: 0.0016-0.0051) and 0.0025 (95% CI: 0.0020-0.0031) increases in utility, respectively. These generated 1,542 QALYs, at a cost-per-QALY of £28,661 when implementation costs were excluded.

CONCLUSION

Participants experienced small utility gains from session attendance and weight loss during their programme participation. These benefits alone made this low-cost behaviour change programme potentially cost-effective in the short-term.

Pay-for-Performance incentives for specialised services in England: a mixed methods evaluation

BACKGROUND

A Pay-for-Performance (P4P) programme, known as Prescribed Specialised Services Commissioning for Quality and Innovation (PSS CQUIN), was introduced for specialised services in the English NHS in 2013/2014. These services treat patients with rare and complex conditions. We evaluate the implementation of PSS CQUIN contracts between 2016/2017 and 2018/2019.

METHODS

We used a mixed methods evaluative approach. In the quantitative analysis, we used a difference-in-differences design to evaluate the effectiveness of ten PSS CQUIN schemes across a range of targeted outcomes. Potential selection bias was addressed using propensity score matching. We also estimated impacts on costs by scheme and financial year. In the qualitative analysis, we conducted semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions to gain insights into the complexities of contract design and programme implementation. Qualitative data analysis was based on the constant comparative method, inductively generating themes.

RESULTS

The ten PSS CQUIN schemes had limited impact on the targeted outcomes. A statistically significant improvement was found for only one scheme: in the clinical area of trauma, the incentive scheme increased the probability of being discharged from Adult Critical Care within four hours of being clinically ready by 7%. The limited impact may be due to the size of the incentive payments, the complexity of the schemes' design, and issues around ownership, contracting and flexibility.

CONCLUSION

The PSS CQUIN schemes had little or no impact on quality improvements in specialised services. Future P4P programmes in healthcare could benefit from lessons learnt from this study on incentive design and programme implementation.

How do family doctors respond to reduced waiting times for cancer diagnosis in secondary care?

Reducing waiting times is a priority in public health systems. Efforts of healthcare providers to shorten waiting times could be negated if they simultaneously induce substantial increases in demand. However, separating out the effects of changes in supply and demand on waiting times requires an exogenous change in one element. We examine the impact of a pilot programme in some English hospitals to shorten waiting times for urgent diagnosis of suspected cancer on family doctors' referrals. We examine referrals from 6,666 family doctor partnerships to 145 hospitals between 1st April 2012 and 31st March 2019. Five hospitals piloted shorter waiting times initiatives in 2017. Using continuous difference-in-differences regression, we exploit the pilot as a 'supply shifter' to estimate the effect of waiting times on referral volumes for two suspected cancer types: bowel and lung. The proportion of referred patients breaching two-week waiting times targets for suspected bowel cancer fell by 3.9 percentage points in pilot hospitals in response to the policy, from a baseline of 4.8%. Family doctors exposed to the pilot increased their referrals (demand) by 10.8%. However, the pilot was not successful for lung cancer, with some evidence that waiting times increased, and a corresponding reduction in referrals of -10.5%. Family doctor referrals for suspected cancer are responsive at the margin to waiting times. Healthcare providers may struggle to achieve long-term reductions in waiting times if supply-side improvements are offset by increases in demand.

Population, workforce, and organisational characteristics affecting appointment rates: a retrospective cross-sectional analysis in primary care

BACKGROUND

The recent publication of data on appointment volumes for all general practices in England has enabled representative analysis of factors affecting appointment activity rates for the first time.

AIM

To identify population, workforce, and organisational predictors of practice variations in appointment volume.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A multivariable cross-sectional regression analysis of 6284 general practices in England was undertaken using data from August-October 2022.

METHOD

Multivariable regression analyses was conducted. It related population age and deprivation, numbers of GPs, nurses, and other care professionals, and organisation characteristics to numbers of appointments by staff type and to proportions of appointments on the same or next day after booking.

RESULTS

Appointment levels were higher at practices serving rural areas. Practices serving more deprived populations had more appointments with other care professionals but not GPs. One additional full-time equivalent (FTE) GP was associated with an extra 175 appointments over 3 months. Additional FTEs of other staff types were associated with larger differences in appointment rates (367 appointments per additional nurse and 218 appointments per additional other care professional over 3 months). There was evidence of substitution between staff types in appointment provision. Levels of staffing were not associated with proportions of same-or next-day appointments.

CONCLUSION

Higher staffing levels are associated with more appointment provision, but not speed of appointment availability. New information on activity levels has shown evidence of substitution between GPs and other care professionals in appointment provision and demonstrated additional workload for practices serving deprived and rural areas.

Estimating the heterogeneous health and well-being returns to social participation

Social participation is defined as an individual's involvement in activities that provide connections with others in society. Past research has demonstrated links between social participation, improved health and well-being, and reduced social isolation, but has been restricted to older people and has not investigated heterogeneity. Using cross-sectional data from the UK's Community Life Survey (2013-2019; N = 50,006), we estimated returns to social participation in the adult population. We included availability of community assets as instruments in a marginal treatment effects model, which allows treatment effects to be heterogeneous and examines whether the effects vary by propensity to participate. Social participation was linked to reduced loneliness and improved health (-0.96 and 0.40 points respectively on 1-5 scales) and increased life satisfaction and happiness (2.17 and 2.03 points respectively on 0-10 scales). These effects were larger for those on low income, with lower education attainment, and who live alone or with no children. We also found negative selection, indicating those less likely to participate have higher health and well-being returns. Future interventions could focus on increasing community asset infrastructure and encouraging social participation for those with lower socio-economic status.

Evaluating socioeconomic inequalities in influenza vaccine uptake during the COVID-19 pandemic: A cohort study in Greater Manchester, England

BACKGROUND

There are known socioeconomic inequalities in annual seasonal influenza (flu) vaccine uptake. The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic was associated with multiple factors that may have affected flu vaccine uptake, including widespread disruption to healthcare services, changes to flu vaccination eligibility and delivery, and increased public awareness and debate about vaccination due to high-profile COVID-19 vaccination campaigns. However, to the best of our knowledge, no existing studies have investigated the consequences for inequalities in flu vaccine uptake, so we aimed to investigate whether socioeconomic inequalities in flu vaccine uptake have widened since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We used deidentified data from electronic health records for a large city region (Greater Manchester, population 2.8 million), focusing on 3 age groups eligible for National Health Service (NHS) flu vaccination: preschool children (age 2 to 3 years), primary school children (age 4 to 9 years), and older adults (age 65 years plus). The sample population varied between 418,790 (2015/16) and 758,483 (2021/22) across each vaccination season. We estimated age-adjusted neighbourhood-level income deprivation-related inequalities in flu vaccine uptake using Cox proportional hazards models and the slope index of inequality (SII), comparing 7 flu vaccination seasons (2015/16 to 2021/22). Among older adults, the SII (i.e., the gap in uptake between the least and most income-deprived areas) doubled over the 7 seasons from 8.48 (95% CI [7.91,9.04]) percentage points to 16.91 (95% CI [16.46,17.36]) percentage points, with approximately 80% of this increase occurring during the pandemic. Before the pandemic, income-related uptake gaps were wider among children, ranging from 15.59 (95% CI [14.52,16.67]) percentage points to 20.07 (95% CI [18.94,21.20]) percentage points across age groups and vaccination seasons. Among preschool children, the uptake gap increased in 2020/21 to 25.25 (95% CI [24.04,26.45]) percentage points, before decreasing to 20.86 (95% CI [19.65,22.05]) percentage points in 2021/22. Among primary school children, inequalities increased in both pandemic years to reach 30.27 (95% CI [29.58,30.95]) percentage points in 2021/22. Although vaccine uptake increased during the pandemic, disproportionately larger increases in uptake in less deprived areas created wider inequalities in all age groups. The main limitation of our approach is the use of a local dataset, which may limit generalisability to other geographical settings.

CONCLUSIONS

The COVID-19 pandemic led to increased inequalities in flu vaccine uptake, likely due to changes in demand for vaccination, new delivery models, and disruptions to healthcare and schooling. It will be important to investigate the causes of these increased inequalities and to examine whether these increased inequalities also occurred in the uptake of other routine vaccinations. These new wider inequalities in flu vaccine uptake may exacerbate inequalities in flu-related morbidity and mortality.

How new clinical roles in primary care impact on equitable distribution of workforce: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

There are inequalities in the geographical distribution of the primary care workforce in England. Primary care networks (PCNs), and the associated Additional Roles Reimbursement Scheme (ARRS) funding, have stimulated employment of new healthcare roles. However, it is not clear whether this will impact inequalities.

AIM

To examine whether the ARRS impacted inequality in the distribution of the primary care workforce.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A retrospective before-and-after study of English PCNs in 2019 and 2022.

METHOD

The study combined workforce, population, and deprivation data at network level for March 2019 and March 2022. The change was estimated between 2019 and 2022 in the slope index of inequality (SII) across deprivation of full-time equivalent (FTE) GPs (total doctors, qualified GPs, and doctors-in-training), nurses, direct patient care, administrative, ARRS and non- ARRS, and total staff per 10 000 patients.

RESULTS

A total of 1255 networks were included. Nurses and qualified GPs decreased in number while all other staff roles increased, with ARRS staff having the greatest increase. There was a pro- rich change in the SII for administrative staff (-0.482, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.841 to -0.122, P<0.01) and a pro- poor change for doctors-in-training (0.161, 95% CI = 0.049 to 0.274, P<0.01). Changes in distribution of all other staff types were not statistically significant.

CONCLUSION

Between 2019 and 2022 the distribution of administrative staff became less pro-poor, and doctors-in-training became pro-poor. The changes in inequality in all other staff groups were mixed. The introduction of PCNs has not substantially changed the longstanding inequalities in the geographical distribution of the primary care workforce.

Could diabetes prevention programmes result in the widening of sociodemographic inequalities in type 2 diabetes? Comparison of survey and administrative data for England

BACKGROUND

The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) in England is a behavioural intervention for preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) among people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH). How this programme affects inequalities by age, sex, limiting illnesses or disability, ethnicity or deprivation is not known.

METHODS

We used multinomial and binary logistic regression models to compare whether the population with NDH at different stages of the programme are representative of the population with NDH: stages include (1) prevalence of NDH (using survey data from UK Household Longitudinal Study (n=794) and Health Survey for England (n=1383)); (2) identification in primary care and offer of programme (using administrative data from the National Diabetes Audit (n=1 267 350)) and (3) programme participation (using programme provider records (n=98 024)).

RESULTS

Predicted probabilities drawn from the regressions with demographics as each outcome and dataset identifier as predictors showed that younger adults (aged under 40) (4% of the population with NDH (95% CI 2.4% to 6.5%)) and older adults (aged 80 and above) (12% (95% CI 9.5% to 14.2%)) were slightly under-represented among programme participants (2% (95% CI 1.8% to 2.2%) and 8% (95% CI 7.8% to 8.2%) of programme participants, respectively). People living in deprived areas were under-represented in eight sessions (14% (95% CI 13.7% to 14.4%) vs 20% (95% CI 16.4% to 23.6%) in the general population). Ethnic minorities were over-represented among offers (35% (95% CI 35.1% to 35.6%) vs 13% (95% CI 9.1% to 16.4%) in general population), though the proportion dropped at the programme completion stage (19% (95% CI 18.5% to 19.5%)).

CONCLUSION

The DPP has the potential to reduce ethnic inequalities, but may widen socioeconomic, age and limiting illness or disability-related inequalities in T2DM. While ethnic minority groups are over-represented at the identification and offer stages, efforts are required to support completion of the programme. Programme providers should target under-represented groups to ensure equitable access and narrow inequalities in T2DM.

The impact of devolution on experienced health and well-being

Devolution of health systems from national to local levels is a common focus of policymakers across the world. The overarching aim is to improve population health by better meeting the specific needs of local citizens. We examine the case of a coordinated devolution across several public service sectors in Greater Manchester, England, in 2016. We estimate the impact on experienced health and well-being using Short-Form 12 scores from 13,938 adult respondents to the UK Household Longitudinal Survey between 2012 and 2020. We use difference-in-differences and lagged-dependent variable regressions to compare Greater Manchester to the rest of England. We find no statistically significant changes in experienced health and well-being over the four years following the start of devolution. Our findings suggest that devolving population health management alone without budgetary powers and local accountability mechanisms may not be effective in improving experienced health and well-being in the relatively short-term.

Spillover effects of financial incentives for providers onto non-targeted patients: daycase surgery in English hospitals

BACKGROUND

Incentives for healthcare providers may also affect non-targeted patients. These spillover effects have important implications for the full impact and evaluation of incentive schemes. However, there are few studies on the extent of such spillovers in health care. We investigated whether incentives to perform surgical procedures as daycases affected whether other elective procedures in the same specialties were also treated as daycases.

DATA

8,505,754 patients treated for 92 non-targeted procedures in 127 hospital trusts in England between April and March 2016.

METHODS

Interrupted time series analysis of the probability of being treated as a daycase for non-targeted patients treated in six specialties where targeted patients were also treated and three specialties where they were not.

RESULTS

The daycase rate initially increased (1.04 percentage points, SE: 0.30) for patients undergoing a non-targeted procedure in incentivised specialties but then reduced over time. Conversely, the daycase rate gradually decreased over time for patients treated in a non-incentivised specialty.

DISCUSSION

Spillovers from financial incentives have variable effects over different activities and over time. Policymakers and researchers should consider the possibility of spillovers in the design and evaluation of incentive schemes.

Estimated impact from the withdrawal of primary care financial incentives on selected indicators of quality of care in Scotland: controlled interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the withdrawal of the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) scheme in primary care in Scotland in 2016 had an impact on selected recorded quality of care, compared with England where the scheme continued.

DESIGN

Controlled interrupted time series regression analysis.

SETTING

General practices in Scotland and England.

PARTICIPANTS

979 practices with 5 599 171 registered patients in Scotland, and 7921 practices with 56 270 628 registered patients in England in 2013-14, decreasing to 864 practices in Scotland and 6873 in England in 2018-19, mainly due to practice mergers.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Changes in quality of care at one year and three years after withdrawal of QOF financial incentives in Scotland at the end of the 2015-16 financial year for 16 indicators (two complex processes, nine intermediate outcomes, and five treatments) measured annually for financial years from 2013-14 to 2018-19.

RESULTS

A significant decrease in performance was observed for 12 of the 16 quality of care indicators in Scotland one year after QOF was abolished and for 10 of the 16 indicators three years after QOF was abolished, compared with England. At three years, the absolute percentage point difference between Scotland and England was largest for recording (by tick box) of mental health care planning (-40.2 percentage points, 95% confidence interval -45.5 to -35.0) and diabetic foot screening (-22.8, -33.9 to -11.7). Substantial reductions were, however, also observed for intermediate outcomes, including blood pressure control in patients with peripheral arterial disease (-18.5, -22.1 to -14.9), stroke or transient ischaemic attack (-16.6, -20.6 to -12.7), hypertension (-13.7, -19.4 to -7.9), diabetes (-12.7, -15.0 to -12.4), or coronary heart disease (-12.8, -14.9 to -10.8), and for glycated haemoglobin control in people with HbA_1c levels ≤75 mmol/mol (-5.0, -8.4 to -1.5). No significant differences were observed between Scotland and England for influenza immunisation and antiplatelet or anticoagulant treatment for coronary heart disease three years after withdrawal of incentives.

CONCLUSION

The abolition of financial incentives in Scotland was associated with reductions in recorded quality of care for most performance indicators. Changes to pay for performance should be carefully designed and implemented to monitor and respond to any reductions in care quality.

Informal caregiving, time use and experienced wellbeing

Informal carers report lower evaluative wellbeing than non-carers. In contrast to this literature and our own analysis of evaluative wellbeing, we find carers have a small but higher level of experienced wellbeing than non-carers do. To investigate why, we use decomposition analysis which separates explanatory factors into how time is used and how those uses of time are experienced. We analyze activities and associated experienced wellbeing measured in ten-minute intervals over two days by 4817 adults from the 2014/15 UK Time Use Survey. We use entropy balancing to compare carers with a re-weighted counterfactual non-carer group and then apply Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition. The experienced wellbeing gap of 0.066 is the net result of several substantial competing effects of time use. Carers experienced wellbeing would be higher by 0.188 if they had the same patterns and returns to time use as non-carers which is driven by sleep, time stress and alternative characteristics of time use. However, leisure and non-market activities serve to dampen this increase in experienced wellbeing. Initiatives to improve and assess carer wellbeing should pay close attention to how carers spend their time.

Referral to the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme and conversion from nondiabetic hyperglycaemia to type 2 diabetes mellitus in England: A matched cohort analysis

BACKGROUND

The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NDPP) is a behaviour change programme for adults who are at risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM): people with raised blood glucose levels, but not in the diabetic range, diagnosed with nondiabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH). We examined the association between referral to the programme and reducing conversion of NDH to T2DM.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Cohort study of patients attending primary care in England using clinical Practice Research Datalink data from 1 April 2016 (NDPP introduction) to 31 March 2020 was used. To minimise confounding, we matched patients referred to the programme in referring practices to patients in nonreferring practices. Patients were matched based on age (≥3 years), sex, and ≥365 days of NDH diagnosis. Random-effects parametric survival models evaluated the intervention, controlling for numerous covariates. Our primary analysis was selected a priori: complete case analysis, 1-to-1 practice matching, up to 5 controls sampled with replacement. Various sensitivity analyses were conducted, including multiple imputation approaches. Analysis was adjusted for age (at index date), sex, time from NDH diagnosis to index date, BMI, HbA1c, total serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, prescription of metformin, smoking status, socioeconomic status, a diagnosis of depression, and comorbidities. A total of 18,470 patients referred to NDPP were matched to 51,331 patients not referred to NDPP in the main analysis. Mean follow-up from referral was 482.0 (SD = 317.3) and 472.4 (SD = 309.1) days, for referred to NDPP and not referred to NDPP, respectively. Baseline characteristics in the 2 groups were similar, except referred to NDPP were more likely to have higher BMI and be ever-smokers. The adjusted HR for referred to NDPP, compared to not referred to NDPP, was 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73 to 0.87) (p < 0.001). The probability of not converting to T2DM at 36 months since referral was 87.3% (95% CI: 86.5% to 88.2%) for referred to NDPP and 84.6% (95% CI: 83.9% to 85.4%) for not referred to NDPP. Associations were broadly consistent in the sensitivity analyses, but often smaller in magnitude. As this is an observational study, we cannot conclusively address causality. Other limitations include the inclusion of controls from the other 3 UK countries, data not allowing the evaluation of the association between attendance (rather than referral) and conversion.

CONCLUSIONS

The NDPP was associated with reduced conversion rates from NDH to T2DM. Although we observed smaller associations with risk reduction, compared to what has been observed in RCTs, this is unsurprising since we examined the impact of referral, rather than attendance or completion of the intervention.

Predictors and population health outcomes of persistent high GP turnover in English general practices: a retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

English primary care faces significant challenges, including 'persistent high turnover' of general practitioners (GPs) in some partnerships. It is unknown whether there are specific predictors of persistent high turnover and whether it is associated with poorer population health outcomes.

DESIGN

A retrospective observational study.

METHODS

We linked workforce data on individual GPs to practice-level data from Hospital Episode Statistics and the GP Patient Survey (2007-2019). We classified practices as experiencing persistent high turnover if more than 10% of GPs changed in at least 3 consecutive years. We used multivariable logistic or linear regression models for panel data with random effects to identify practice characteristics that predicted persistent high turnover and associations of practice outcomes (higher emergency hospital use and patient experience of continuity of care, access to care and overall patient satisfaction) with persistent high turnover.

RESULTS

Each year, 6% of English practices experienced persistent high turnover, with a maximum of 9% (688/7619) in 2014. Larger practices, in more deprived areas and with a higher morbidity burden were more likely to experience persistent high turnover. Persistent high turnover was associated with 1.8 (95% CI 1.5 to 2.1) more emergency hospital attendances per 100 patients, 0.1 (95% CI 0.1 to 0.2) more admissions per 100 patients, 5.2% (95% CI -5.6% to -4.9%) fewer people seeing their preferred doctor, 10.6% (95% CI-11.4% to -9.8%) fewer people reporting obtaining an appointment on the same day and 1.3% (95% CI -1.6% to -1.1%) lower overall satisfaction with the practice.

CONCLUSIONS

Persistent high turnover is independently linked to indicators of poorer service and health outcomes. Although causality needs to be further investigated, strategies and policies may be needed to both reduce high turnover and support practices facing challenges with high GP turnover when it occurs.

Emergency department outcomes for patients experiencing homelessness in England: retrospective cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Emergency departments (EDs) are an important point of access to health care for people experiencing homelessness. Evidence suggests that ED attendances by homeless people are more likely to result in leaving the ED without treatment, or dying in the ED. We investigate which diagnoses and patterns of health care use are associated with these (and other) discharge destinations and re-attendance within 7 days among homeless patients.

METHODS

We used national hospital data to analyze attendances of all 109 254 people experiencing homelessness who presented at any Type 1 ED in England over 2013-18. We used logistic regression to estimate the association of each outcome with primary diagnosis and patterns of healthcare use.

RESULTS

Compared with patients with no past ED use, patients with a high frequency of past ED use were more likely to leave without treatment and re-attend within 7 days. Patients not registered at a general practice were likelier to leave without treatment or die in the ED and had lower odds of unplanned re-attendance. A primary diagnosis of 'social problems' was associated with being discharged without follow-up. Patients with a psychiatric primary diagnosis were disproportionately likely to be referred to another health care professional/provider or an outpatient clinic.

CONCLUSIONS

Further research is needed to understand why some homeless patients leave the ED without treatment and whether their healthcare needs are being met. Some patients may be attending the ED frequently due to poor access to other services, such as primary care and social welfare.

General practice managers' motivations for skill mix change in primary care: Results from a cross-sectional survey in England

OBJECTIVES

The objectives are to determine the factors that motivated GP practice managers in England to employ non-medical roles, and to identify an ideal hypothetical GP practice workforce.

METHODS

Cross-sectional survey of GP practice managers in England (n = 1205). The survey focused on six non-medical roles: advanced nurse practitioner, specialist nurse, health care assistant, physician associate, paramedic and pharmacist.

RESULTS

The three most commonly selected motivating factors were: (i) to achieve a better match between what patients need and what the practitioner team can deliver; (ii) to increase overall appointment availability and (iii) to release GP time. Employment of pharmacists and physician associates was most commonly supported by additional funding. Practice managers preferred accessing new non-medical roles through a primary care network or similar, while there was a clear preference for direct employment of additional GPs, advanced nurse practitioners or practice nurses. The ideal practice workforce would comprise over 70% of GPs and nurses, containing, on average, fewer GPs than the current GP practice workforce.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms that more diverse teams of practitioners are playing an increasing role in providing primary care in England. Managers prefer not to employ all new roles directly within the practice. A more detailed investigation of future workforce requirements is necessary to ensure that health policy supports the funding (whether practice or population based), recruitment, training, deployment and workloads associated with the mix of roles needed in an effective primary care workforce.

Does recruiting patients to diabetes prevention programmes via primary care reinforce existing inequalities in care provision between general practices? A retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Primary care plays a crucial role in identifying patients' needs and referring at-risk individuals to preventive services. However, well-established variations in care delivery may be replicated in this prevention activity.

OBJECTIVE

To examine whether recruiting patients to the English NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme via primary care reinforces existing inequalities in care provision between practices, in terms of clinical quality, accessibility and resources.

METHODS

We generated annual practice-level counts of referrals across the first 4 years of the programme (June 2016 to March 2020). These were linked to 15 indicators of practice clinical quality, access and resources measured during 2018/19. We used random effects Poisson regressions to examine associations between referrals and these indicators, controlling for practice and population characteristics, for 6871 practices in England.

RESULTS

On average, practices made 3.72 referrals per 1000 population annually and rates varied substantially between practices. Referral rates were positively associated with the quality of clinical care provided. A 1 SD higher level of achievement on Quality and Outcomes Framework diabetes indicators was associated with an 11% (95% CI: 8% to 14%) higher referral rate. This positive association was consistent across all five clinical quality indicators. There was no association between referral rates and accessibility, overall payments or staffing. Associations between referrals and receiving different supplementary payments over the core contract were mixed, with 8%-11% lower referral rates for some payments but not for others.

CONCLUSION

Recruiting patients to diabetes prevention programmes via primary care reinforces existing inequalities between general practices in the clinical quality of care they provide. This leaves patients registered with practices providing lower quality clinical care even more disadvantaged. Providing additional support to lower quality practices or using alternative recruitment methods may be necessary to avoid differential engagement in prevention programmes from widening these variations and potential health inequalities further.

Associations between inflexible job conditions, health and healthcare utilisation in England: retrospective cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the strength of association between having an inflexible job and health-related quality of life and healthcare utilisation; and to explore heterogeneity in the effects by gender, age and area-level deprivation.

DESIGN

Retrospective cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Seven waves of the English General Practice Patient Survey between 2012 and 2017.

PARTICIPANTS

1 232 884 people aged 16-64 years and in full-time employment. We measured job inflexibility by inability to take time away from work during usual working hours to seek medical care.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L); number of months since the respondent last saw a general practitioner (GP) or nurse; use of out-of-hours general practice in the past 6 months. We used regression analyses to estimate the strength of association between outcomes and having an inflexible job, adjusting for person and area-level characteristics.

RESULTS

One-third of respondents reported job inflexibility. The probability of job inflexibility was higher at younger ages and in more deprived areas. Job inflexibility was associated with lower EQ-5D-5L utility scores of 0.017 (95% CI 0.016 to 0.018) for women and 0.016 (95% CI 0.015 to 0.017) for men. Women were more affected than men in the mental health domain. The reduction in health-related quality of life associated with having an inflexible job was greater for employees who were older or lived in more deprived areas. Having an inflexible job was associated with a longer time since the last visit to their GP of 0.234 (95% CI 0.201 to 0.268) months for women and 0.199 (95% CI 0.152 to 0.183) months for men.

CONCLUSIONS

Inequalities in the prevalence of inflexible jobs contribute to inequalities in health. One mechanism may be through reduced access to healthcare. Policymakers and employers should ensure that all employees have sufficient job flexibility to protect their health.

Evaluation of water fluoridation scheme in Cumbria: the CATFISH prospective longitudinal cohort study

Background

Water fluoridation was introduced in the UK against a background of high dental decay within the population. Levels of decay have dramatically reduced over the last 40 years following widespread use of fluoride toothpaste.

Objective

The aim of the CATFISH (Cumbrian Assessment of Teeth a Fluoride Intervention Study for Health) study was to address the question of whether or not the addition of fluoride to community drinking water, in a contemporary population, lead to a reduction in the number of children with caries and, if so, is this reduction cost-effective?

Design

A longitudinal prospective cohort design was used in two distinct recruited populations: (1) a birth cohort to assess systemic and topical effects of water fluoridation and (2) an older school cohort to assess the topical effects of drinking fluoridated water.

Setting

The study was conducted in Cumbria, UK. Broadly, the intervention group (i.e. individuals receiving fluoridated drinking water) were from the west of Cumbria and the control group were from the east of Cumbria.

Participants

Children who were lifetime residents of Cumbria were recruited. For the birth cohort, children were recruited at birth (2014–15), and followed until age 5 years. For the older school cohort, children were recruited at age 5 years (2013–14) and followed until the age of 11 years.

Intervention

The provision of a ‘reintroduced fluoridated water scheme’.

Main outcome measures

The primary outcome measure was the presence or absence of decay into dentine in the primary teeth (birth cohort) and permanent teeth (older school cohort). The cost per quality-adjusted life-year was also assessed.

Results

In the birth cohort (n = 1444), 17.4% of children in the intervention group had decay into dentine, compared with 21.4% of children in the control group. The evidence, after adjusting for deprivation, age and sex, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.74 (95% confidence interval 0.56 to 0.98), suggested that water fluoridation was likely to have a modest beneficial effect. There was insufficient evidence of difference in the presence of decay in children in the older school cohort (n = 1192), with 19.1% of children in the intervention group having decay into dentine, compared with 21.9% of children in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 0.80, 95% confidence interval 0.58 to 1.09). The intervention was found to be likely to be cost-effective for both the birth cohort and the older school cohort at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. There was no significant difference in the performance of water fluoridation on caries experience across deprivation quintiles.

Conclusions

The prevalence of caries and the impact of water fluoridation was much smaller than previous studies have reported. The intervention was effective in the birth cohort group; however, the importance of the modest absolute reduction in caries (into dentine) needs to be considered against the use of other dental caries preventative measures. Longer-term follow-up will be required to fully understand the balance of benefits and potential risks (e.g. fluorosis) of water fluoridation in contemporary low-caries populations.

Limitations

The low response rates to the questionnaires reduced their value for generalisations. The observed numbers of children with decay and the postulated differences between the groups were far smaller than anticipated and, consequently, the power of the study was affected (i.e. increasing the uncertainty indicated in the confidence intervals).

Study registration

This study is registered as Integrated Research Application System 131824 and 149278.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 10, No. 11. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Diabetes Prevention Programme and socioeconomic inequalities in Type 2 Diabetes in England

 

The National Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) in England is a behavioural intervention for preventing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) among people with non-diabetic hyperglycaemia (NDH, HbA1c 42-47 mmol/mol or 6.0-6.4%). How this programme affects inequalities by age, gender, disability, ethnicity, or deprivation is not known. We used multinomial logistic regression models to compare population characteristics at three stages along the prevention programme pathway: prevalence of NDH [using survey data from UK Household Longitudinal Study (N = 794) and Health Survey for England (N = 1,383)]; identification in primary care and offer of the programme [using administrative data from the National Diabetes Audit (N = 1,267,350)]; and programme participation [using programme provider records (N = 98,024)]). Younger adults (aged under 40) [4% of the NDH population (95% CIs 2%-6%)] and older adults (aged 80 and above) [12% (95%CIs 10%-14%] were both underrepresented amongst DPP participants [2% of DPP participants (95%CIs 1.8%-2.2%) and 8% (95%CIs 7.7%-8.3%) respectively]. People with disabilities were underrepresented in the DPP [15% (95%CIs 14.9%-15.1%) vs 60% (95%CIs 58%-62%)] compared to the general population. People living in more deprived areas were under-represented [14% (95% CIs 13.7%-14.3%) vs 20% (95%CIs 16%-24%) in the general population]. Ethnic minorities were overrepresented [36% (95%CIs 35.8%-36.2%) vs 13% (95%CIs 9%-17%) in the general population] among DPP referrals, though the proportion dropped at programme completion stage [19% (95%CI 18.5%-19.5%)]. The DPP has the potential to reduce ethnic inequalities but may widen socioeconomic, age, and disability-related inequalities in T2DM. Whilst ethnic minority groups are overrepresented at identification and offer stage, efforts are required to support the completion of the programme. Programme providers should target underrepresented groups to ensure equitable access and narrow inequalities in T2DM.

Key messages

• The DPP intervention may result in a widening of socioeconomic and disability related inequalities amongst people with NDH as the programme had fewer adults in deprived areas and with a disability.

• The programme has the potential to reduce ethnic inequalities, but efforts are required to support the completion of the programme by minority ethnic groups.

The effects of multi-disciplinary integrated care on healthcare utilization: Evidence from a natural experiment in the UK

Better integration is a priority for most international health systems. However, multiple interventions are often implemented simultaneously, making evaluation difficult and providing limited evidence for policy makers about specific interventions. We evaluate a common integrated care intervention, multi-disciplinary group (MDG) meetings for discussion of high-risk patients, introduced in one socio-economically deprived area in the UK in spring 2015. Using data from multiple waves of the national GP Patient Survey and Hospital Episode Statistics, we estimate its effects on primary and secondary care utilization and costs, health status and patient experience. We use triple differences, exploiting the targeting at people aged 65 years and over, parsing effects from other population-level interventions implemented simultaneously. The intervention reduced the probability of visiting a primary care nurse by three percentage points and decreased length of stay by 1 day following emergency care admission. However, since planned care use increased, overall costs were unaffected. MDG meetings are presumably fulfilling public health objectives by decreasing length of stay and detecting previously unmet needs. However, the effect of MDGs on health system cost is uncertain and health remains unchanged. Evaluations of specific integrated care interventions may be more useful to public decision makers facing budget constraints.

Socioeconomic inequality in access to timely and appropriate care in emergency departments

In publicly-funded healthcare systems, waiting times for care should be based on need rather than ability to pay. Studies have shown that individuals with lower socioeconomic status face longer waits for planned inpatient care, but there is little evidence on inequalities in waiting times for emergency care. We study waiting times in emergency departments (EDs) following arrival by ambulance, where health consequences of extended waits may be severe. Using data from all major EDs in England during the 2016/17 financial year, we find patients from more deprived areas face longer waits during some parts of the ED care pathway. Inequalities in waits are small, but more deprived individuals also receive less complex ED care, are less likely to be admitted for inpatient care, and are more likely to re-attend ED or die shortly after attendance. Patient-physician interactions and unconscious bias towards more deprived patients may be important sources of inequalities.

Family doctor responses to changes in target stringency under financial incentives

Healthcare providers may game when faced with targets. We examine how family doctors responded to a temporary but substantial increase in the stringency of targets determining payments for controlling blood pressure amongst younger hypertensive patients. We apply difference-in-differences and bunching techniques to data from electronic health records of 107,148 individuals. Doctors did not alter the volume or composition of lists of their hypertension patients. They did increase treatment intensity, including a 1.2 percentage point increase in prescribing antihypertensive medicines. They also undertook more blood pressure measurements. Multiple testing increased by 1.9 percentage points overall and by 8.8 percentage points when first readings failed more stringent target. Exemption of patients from reported performance increased by 0.8 percentage points. Moreover, the proportion of patients recorded as exactly achieving the more stringent target increased by 3.1 percentage points to 16.6%. Family doctors responded as intended and gamed when set more stringent pay-for-performance targets.

Cuts to local government spending, multimorbidity and health-related quality of life: A longitudinal ecological study in England

BACKGROUND

Population health has stagnated or is declining in many high-income countries. We analysed whether nationally administered austerity cuts in England were associated with prevalence of multimorbidity (individuals with two or more long-term conditions) and health-related quality of life.

METHODS

We conducted an observational, longitudinal study on 147 local authorities in England. We examined associations of changes in spending over time (2009/10-2017/18), in total and by budget line, with (i) prevalence of multimorbidity, 2+ conditions (2011/12-2017/18), and (ii) health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L) score (2012/13-2016/17). We estimated linear, log-log regression models, incorporating local authority fixed-effects, time-varying demographic and socio-economic confounders, and time trends.

FINDINGS

All local authorities experienced real spending cuts, varying from 42% (Barking and Dagenham) to 0·3% (Sefton). A 1% cut in per capita total service expenditure was associated with a 0·10% (95% CI 0·03 to 0·16) increase in prevalence of multimorbidity. We found no association (0·003%; 95% CI -0·01 to 0·01) with health-related quality of life. By budget line, after controlling for other spending, a 1% cut in public health expenditure was associated with a 0·15% (95% CI 0·11 to 0·20) increase in prevalence of multimorbidity, and a 1% cut in adult social care expenditure was associated with a 0·01% (95% CI 0·002 to 0·02) decrease in average health-related quality of life.

INTERPRETATION

Fiscal austerity is associated with worse multimorbidity and health-related quality of life. Policymakers should consider the potential health consequences of local government expenditure cuts and knock-on effects for health systems.

FUNDING

Medical Research Council.

Population level impact of the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme on incidence of type 2 diabetes in England: An observational study

BACKGROUND

The NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (DPP) is the first nationwide type 2 diabetes prevention programme targeting people with prediabetes. It was rolled out across England from 2016 in three waves. We evaluate the population level impact of the NHS DPP on incidence rates of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We use data from the National Diabetes Audit, which records all individuals across England who have been diagnosed with type 2 diabetes by 2019. We use difference-in-differences regression models to estimate the impact of the phased introduction of the DPP on type 2 diabetes incidence. We compare patients registered with the 3,282 general practices enrolled from 2016 (wave 1) and the 1,610 practices enrolled from 2017 (wave 2) to those registered with the 1,584 practices enrolled from 2018 (final wave).

FINDINGS

Incidence rates of type 2 diabetes in wave 1 practices in 2018 and 2019 were significantly lower than would have been expected in the absence of the DPP (difference-in-differences Incident Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0·938 (95% CI 0·905 to 0·972)). Incidence rates were also significantly lower than expected for wave 2 practices in 2019 (difference-in-differences IRR = 0·927 (95% CI 0·885 to 0·972)). These results remained consistent across several robustness checks.

INTERPRETATION

Introduction of the NHS DPP reduced population incidence of type 2 diabetes. Longer follow-up is required to explore whether these effects are maintained or if diabetes onset is delayed.

FUNDING

This research was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (Health Services and Delivery Research, 16/48/07 - Evaluating the NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NHS DPP): the DIPLOMA research programme (Diabetes Prevention - Long Term Multimethod Assessment)). The views and opinions expressed in this manuscript are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the NHS, the National Institute for Health and Care Research or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Skill-mix change and outcomes in primary care: Longitudinal analysis of general practices in England 2015-2019

BACKGROUND

Increasing the employment of staff with new clinical roles in primary care has been proposed as a solution to the shortages of GPs and nurses. However, evidence of the impacts this has on practice outcomes is limited. We examine how outcomes changed following changes in skill-mix in general practices in England.

METHODS

We obtained annual data on staff in 6,296 English general practices between 2015 and 2019 and grouped professionals into four categories: GPs, Nurses, Health Professionals, and Healthcare Associate Professionals. We linked 10 indicators of quality of care covering the dimensions of accessibility, clinical effectiveness, user experiences and health system costs. We used both fixed-effect and first-differences regressions to model changes in staff composition and outcomes, adjusting for practice and population factors.

RESULTS

Employment increased over time for all four staff groups, with largest increases for Healthcare Professionals (from 0.04 FTE per practice in 2015 to 0.28 in 2019) and smallest for Nurses who experienced a 3.5 percent growth. Increases in numbers of GPs and Nurses were positively associated with changes in practice activity and outcomes. The introduction of new roles was negatively associated with patient satisfaction: a one FTE increase in Health Professionals was associated with decreases of 0.126 [-0.175, -0.078] and 0.116 [-0.161, -0.071] standard deviations in overall patient satisfaction and satisfaction with making an appointment. Pharmacists improved medicine prescribing outcomes. All staff categories were associated with higher health system costs. There was little evidence of direct complementarity or substitution between different staff groups.

CONCLUSIONS

Introduction of new roles to support GPs does not have straightforward effects on quality or patient satisfaction. Problems can arise from the complex adaptation required to adjust practice organisation and from the novelty of these roles to patients. These findings suggest caution over the implementation of policies encouraging more employment of different professionals in primary care.

POS1093 EFFECT OF DISEASE MODIFYING ANTI-RHEUMATIC DRUGS ON DEPRESSION IN PATIENTS WITH PSORIATIC ARTHRITIS IN A LONGITUDINAL COHORT

Background

Depression, and its improvement with disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs) is understudied in psoriatic arthritis (PsA).

Objectives

To determine the effectiveness of DMARDs on depression in PsA patients.

Methods

Patients enrolled from January 2000 to May 2020 in a large PsA cohort were included. Depression was defined as medical outcomes study short form-36 (SF-36) mental component summary score (MCS) ≤ 40 or mental health (MH) subscale score ≤ 56. Primary outcome was resolution of depression within 1 year of DMARDs, defined by two definitions: 1) MCS > 40 and/or MH subscale score of > 56; 2) Increase in MCS by 2.5 and MH subscale score by 5, the minimal clinically important difference (MCID). Baseline medications [non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and/or conventional or targeted (c/t) DMARDs] were recorded for all patients and stratified into 3 mutually exclusive ordinal categories: I-No treatment/NSAIDs; II-cDMARDs±NSAIDs without tDMARDs; III-tDMARDs±cDMARDs/NSAIDs. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were created to determine the association between medications and resolution of depression, after controlling for age, sex, disease duration and baseline MCS/MH subscale score.

Results

Based on the MCS and MH subscale score definitions, 608 (48%) and 655 (52%) of the 1270 patients, respectively were depressed at baseline. 374 (50.8% males) and 399 (52.4% males) patients were followed up in the groups defined by MCS and MH subscales, respectively for 1 year. Patients in both groups had comparable body mass indices, baseline psoriasis area and severity index and active joint count. Mean MCS and MH subscale scores (standard deviation) were 33.2 (5.2) and 46.0 (10.2). A mean of 11.9 and 11.7 months was noted for resolution of depression in the MCS based analysis and MH subscale-based analysis groups, respectively. More patients achieved resolution of depression based on definition 2 (MCS, 64.7%; MH, 62.2%) as compared to definition 1 (MCS, 54.5%; MH, 53.9). The proportion of patients on each category of medications in both models is shown in the Figure 1. Table 1 depicts the univariate and multivariable regression results by both the definitions of primary outcome in the MH subscales model. The global p-value for medication categories showed a trend towards significance in both models using definition 2. There was a trend towards higher likelihood of response when comparing patients in treatment category III vs category I. A significant response was noted when comparing patients in category III with category II as reference (OR 1.71; 95% CI 1.05-2.76; p 0.03). No significant effect of treatment category on depression was noted using definition 1.

Table 1.

Association between treatment and resolution of depression in the MH Subscale model (n = 399)

VariableResolution by MCIDResolution by MH subscale reductionUnivariable modelMultivariable modelUnivariate modelMultivariate modelOR (95% CI)p valueOR (95% CI)p valueOR (95% CI)p valueOR (95% CI)p valueMale vs. Female0.81 (0.54–1.22)0.310.83 (0.5–1.26)0.391.02 (0.68–1.51)0.940.94 (0.63 –1.42)0.79Baseline age1.01 (1.00 –1.03)0.091.01 (1.00 –1.03)0.161.02 (1.00–1.03)0.051.01 (0.99 –1.03)0.30Baseline PsA duration1.02 (1.00 –1.04)0.121.01 (0.99 –1.03)0.371.02 (1.00– 1.04)0.071.01 (0.99 –1.03)0.22Baseline MH subscale score0.98 (0.96 –1.00)0.030.98 (0.95 –1.00)0.021.04 (1.02– 1.06)<0.00011.04 (1.02 –1.06)<0.0001Medication category0.07*0.09*0.20*0.20* IReference II0.81 (0.48 –1.36)0.420.83 (0.48 –1.41)0.481.09 (0.65– 1.82)0.751.12 (0.66 –1.91)0.67 III1.40 (0.84 –2.36)0.201.41 (0.83 –2.38)0.201.51 (0.92– 2.49)0.101.55 (0.92 –2.59)0.10

*global p value

Figure 1.

Patients in each drug category.

Conclusion

In an observational setting, resolution of depression occurs in majority of patients with PsA within 1 year. Patients on t-DMARDs may experience better improvement in depression compared to other treatments. Future effectiveness studies warrant better definitions of depression and treatment response.

Acknowledgements

AJM was supported by the National Psoriasis Foundation Fellowship grant.

Disclosure of Interests

Ashish Jacob Mathew Speakers bureau: Novartis, IPCA Laboratories, Grant/research support from: Novartis, IPCA Laboratories, Mitchell Sutton: None declared, Daniel Pereira: None declared, Dafna D Gladman Consultant of: AstraZeneca, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Vinod Chandran Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer and UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen and Eli-Lilly

AB0929 Is there a correlation between skin severity and joint activity in Psoriatic Arthritis (PsA)?

Background

The majority if patients with PsA present with skin manifestations first. Few studies have examined the relationship between severity of skin and joint manifestations, but the results have been variable.

Objectives

To assess the correlation between the extent and severity of skin psoriasis and musculoskeletal manifestations of PsA over time.

Methods

This study is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data at a single center cohort study of patients who enrolled within 12 months of PsA diagnosis from 2000-2020. Patients are assessed according to a standard protocol which includes demographics, clinical assessment including skin and joint assessments, laboratory evaluation at 6–12-month intervals and radiographs every 2 years. Skin severity is measured by the PASI score, joint disease severity is measured by the number of tender and swollen joints. Axial disease was defined by the presence of bilateral grade sacroiliitis or unilateral grade 3 or 4. The Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Metrology Index (BASMI) was also measured. Spearman correlations were calculated between PASI scores and joint counts and BASMI (in patients with axial disease). Multivariable analysis was done using negative binomial model for the joint counts and a linear regression for BASMI. This preliminary analysis includes only the baseline information.

Results

397 patients were included. Characteristics are shown in the Table 1. There was a correlation significant correlation between PASI score and the active joint count (AJC) (ρ 0.14, p=0.0095), swollen joint count (ρ 0.15, p=0.0071). Among the patients with axial disease there was a strong correlation between the PASI and BASMI scores ((ρ 0.58, p=0.0001).

Table 1.

Baseline characteristics of 397 patients

VariableMean (SD)*, Number (%)** N=397Age (years)44.97 (13.01)*PsA duration (years)0.43 (0.66)*Psoriasis duration (years)14.64 (13.65)*Married236 (60.5)**Smoker ever193 (48.7)**Alcohol intake246 (62.3)**Employed309 (78.4)**Post secondary education277 (71.0)**BMI29.21 (8.85)*PASI6.11 (9.03)*Nail238 (61.2)**Active joint count (tender ± swollen)7.3 (13/15)*Swollen joint count2.96 (4.93)*Axial disease53 (17.8%)**Treatment level None/NSAIDS only272 (68.2)** DMARDS ± NSAIDs98 (24.7)** Biologics ± DMARDs27 (6.80)**

Multivariable analysis for AJC revealed traditional DMARDs (0.85 p=0.000). PASI score when patients were on no therapy (0.02 p=0.01) and those on biologics 0.04 p<0.05) were associated with higher AJC. Similarly for swollen joints the use of traditional DMARDs (0.85 P0.00), and the PASI score in those taking biologic DMARDs (0.07 p=0.003) were associated with higher swollen joint count.

In patients with axial disease Age (0/05, p=0.004), PASI score in patients on no treatment (0.06 p=0.000) or those taking biologics (0.28 p=0.000) were associated with higher BASMI scores.

Conclusion

In patients presenting within 12 months of diagnosis of PsA, there is a correlation between the severity of skin and joint disease. Further studies will assess whether this correlation persists over time.

Acknowledgements

The Toronto Psoriatic Arthritis Research Program is supported by a grant from the Krembil Foundation.

Disclosure of Interests

Ghaydaa Aldabie: None declared, Mitchell Sutton: None declared, Dafna D Gladman Consultant of: AstraZeneca

POS1217 ANTI-TNF THERAPY FOR IMMUNE MEDIATED INFLAMMATORY DISEASES MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER ANTIBODY LEVELS AND VIRUS NEUTRALIZATION EFFICACY FOLLOWING SARS-CoV-2 mRNA VACCINATION

Background

The impact of immunosuppressants on COVID-19 vaccination response and durability in patients with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMID) is yet to be fully characterized. Humoral response may be attenuated in these patients especially those on B cell depleting therapy and higher doses of corticosteroids, but data regarding other immunosuppressants are scarce.

Objectives

We aimed to investigate antibody and T cell responses and durability to SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines (BNT162b and/or mRNA 1273) in IMID patients on immunomodulatory maintenance therapy other than B-cell depleting therapy and corticosteroids.

Methods

This prospective observational cohort study examined the immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccines in adult patients with IMIDs (psoriatic arthritis, psoriasis, inflammatory bowel disease and rheumatoid arthritis) with or without maintenance immunosuppressive therapies (anti-TNF, methotrexate/azathioprine [MTX/AZA], anti-TNF + MTX/AZA, anti IL12/23, anti-IL-17, anti-IL23) compared to healthy controls. Automated ELISA for IgGs to spike trimer, spike receptor binding domain (RBD) and the nucleocapsid (NP) and T-cell release of 9 cytokines (IFNg, IL2, IL4, IL17A, TNF) and cytotoxic molecules (sFasL, GzmA, GzmB, Perforinin) in cell culture supernatants following stimulation with spike or NP peptide arrays were conducted at 4 time points: T1=pre vaccination, T2=median 26 days after dose 1, T3=median 16 days after dose 2 and T4=median 106 days after dose 2. Neutralization assays against four SARS-CoV-2 variants (wild type, delta, beta and gamma) were conducted at T3.

Results

We followed 150 subjects: 26 healthy controls and 124 IMID patients: 9 untreated, 44 on anti-TNF, 16 on anti-TNF with MTX/AZA, 10 on anti-IL23, 28 on anti-IL12/23, 9 on anti-IL17, 8 on MTX/AZA (Table 1). Most patients mounted antibody and T cell responses with increases from dose 1 to dose 2 (100% seroconversion at T3) and some decline by T4, with variability within groups. Antibody levels and neutralization efficacy was lower in anti-TNFgroups (anti-TNF, anti-TNF + MTX/AZA) compared to controls and waned by T4 (Figure 1). T cell responses were not consistently different between groups. Pooled data showed a higher antibody response to mRNA-1273 compared to BNT162b.

Table 1.

Baseline characteristics of study participants

Controluntreated IMIDAnti- TNFAnti- TNF +MTX/AZAAnti-IL-23Anti -IL-12/23Anti -IL-17MTX/AZAn=26n=9n=44n=16n=10n=28n=9n=8p-valueIMID*N/A IBD9301002704 Psoriasis1318122 PA0732172 AS0830010 RA1100011Age median years [IQR]36 [26-46]33 [27-41]38 [30-51]53 [44-59]48 [45-61]34 [28-47]49 [46-61]42 [31-55]<0.001^Sex male (%)16 (62)5 (56)18 (41)8 (50)5 (50)13 (46)6 (67)4 (50)0.772~BMImedian kg/m2 [IQR]25 [23-28]26 [22-27]22 [24-26]26 [24-28]27 [24-35]22 [21-24]32 [26-34]26[25-33]0.001^Vaccine interval median days [IQR]74 [35-84]54 [31-64]60 [45-69]64 [50-72]74 [35-84]62 [49-69]65 [52-75]58 [21-97]0.372^

*multiple IMIDs per patient possible

Figure 1.

Antibody responses (A) Anti spike and anti RBD IgG levels at indicated time points. Blue line represents median ratio in convalescent patients. The red line is the seropositivity threshold: the median antibody level of those that pass both a 1% false positive rate and show ≥3SD from the log means of the negative controls. (B) Relative ratio of RBD, spike and NP across time. Black and gray lines indicate median and mean values, respectively. *p≤0.05, **p≤0.01, ***p≤0.001, ****p≤0.0001

Conclusion

Following 2 doses of mRNA vaccination there is 100% seroconversion in IMID patients on maintenance therapy. Antibody levels and neutralization efficacy in anti-TNF group are lower than controls, and wane substantially by 3 months after dose 2. These findings highlight the need for third dose in patients undergoing treatment with anti-TNF therapy and continued monitoring of immunity in these patient groups, taking into consideration newer variants and additional vaccine doses.

Acknowledgements

This work was funded by a donation from Juan and Stefania Speck and by grants VR-1 172711, VS1-175545, FDN-143250, GA1- 177703 and GA2- 177716, from Canadian Institutes of Health Research and COVID Immunity task force and by Sinai Health Foundation

Disclosure of Interests

Naomi Finkelstein: None declared, Roya M. Dayam: None declared, Jaclyn Law: None declared, Rogier Goetgebuer: None declared, Gary Chao: None declared, Kento T. Abe: None declared, Mitchell Sutton: None declared, Joanne M. Stempak: None declared, Daniel Pereira: None declared, David Croitoru: None declared, Lily Acheampong: None declared, Saima Rizwan: None declared, Klaudia Rymaszewski: None declared, Raquel Milgrom: None declared, Darshini Ganatra: None declared, Nathalia V. Batista: None declared, Melanie Girard: None declared, Irene Lau: None declared, Ryan Law: None declared, Michelle Cheung: None declared, Bhavisha Rathod: None declared, Julia Kitaygorodsky: None declared, Reuben Samson: None declared, Queenie Hu: None declared, Nigil Haroon: None declared, Robert Inman Consultant of: AbbVie, Janssen, Lilly, Novartis., Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Novartis, Vincent Piguet Consultant of: AbbVie, Almirall, Celgene, Janssen, Kyowa Kirin Co. Ltd, LEO Pharma,

Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi, UCB, and Union Therapeutic, Grant/research support from: Unrestricted educational grants from AbbVie, Bausch Health, Celgene, Janssen, LEO Pharma, Lilly, L’Oréal, NAOS, Novartis, Pfizer, Pierre-Fabre, Sandoz, and Sanofi, Mark Silverberg Speakers bureau: AbbVie, Janssen, Takeda, Pfizer, Gilead and Amgen, Consultant of: AbbVie, Janssen, Takeda, Pfizer, Gilead and Amgen, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Janssen, Takeda, Pfizer, Gilead and Amgen, Anne-Claude Grigras: None declared, Tania H. Watts: None declared, Vinod Chandran Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer and UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Eli-Lilly.

AB0895 Residual burden and disease activity of Canadian PsA patients treated with advanced therapies: preliminary results from a multiple registry analysis (UNISON-PsA)

Background

Given the availability of advanced therapies in PsA with different modes of action, it is of interest to characterize their impact on overall clinical outcomes.

Objectives

To describe residual disease activity in Canadians with PsA treated with advanced therapies.

Methods

Multi-region, observational, retrospective analysis of data from Rhumadata (Quebec) and International Psoriasis and Arthritis Research Team (IPART) Canadian registries was performed. Data from each registry and region were analyzed separately using a common statistical analysis plan to generate descriptive statistics. Patients included in the registries were eligible if they were adults at the time of PsA diagnosis and were treated with an advanced therapy for ≥6 months initiated between January 2010 and December 2019. Residual disease activity was defined as failing to achieve MDA (defined as achieving ≥5 of: TJC ≤1; SJC ≤1; PASI ≤1 or BSA ≤3%; patient pain VAS score of ≤15 mm; patient global disease activity VAS score of ≤20 mm; HAQ score ≤0.5; and tender entheseal points ≤1) (primary endpoint), or DAPSA score ≥14 (secondary endpoint) within 6 months of initiation of an advanced therapy (TNFi, IL-12/23i, IL-17i, PDE4i, CTLA4i or JAKi).

Results

1,866 subjects (Atlantic [IPART; Newfoundland]: N=83; Quebec [Rhumadata]: N=687; Ontario [IPART]: N=966; West [IPART; British Columbia, Manitoba]: N=130) were included in this preliminary analysis. Baseline characteristics are presented in Table 1. Overall, 899 were receiving their 1st advanced therapy, 464 were receiving their 2nd, and 264 had received ≥3. The most common therapy class was TNFi, followed by IL-17i. 18/21 (85.7%) subjects in the Atlantic region with an assessment, 184/246 (74.8%) in Quebec, 391/571 (68.1%) in Ontario, and 30/43 (69.8%) in Western Canada failed to achieve MDA within 6 months following advanced therapy initiation. Failure to achieve MDA within the allotted period was higher among patients receiving an IL-17i compared with a TNFi. There was no appreciable effect of lines of therapy. Also, 74 of 110 (67.3%) patients with an assessment in Quebec, 201/365 (55.1%) in Ontario and 3/3 (100%) in the West failed to achieve at least low disease activity (LDA; DAPSA ≤14) within 6 months following initiation of an advanced therapy. Data were not available for the Atlantic region. The proportion of patients not achieving LDA by advanced therapy was similar for those receiving a TNFi and IL-17i but increased with line of therapy.

Table 1.

Patient demographic and baseline characteristics, and response to treatment

Atlantic (N=83)Quebec (N=687)Ontario (N=966)West (N=130)Age (years, mean [SD])50.3 (11.1)50.7 (12.1)49.1 (12.9)46.7 (12.1)Female (n [%])44/83 (53.0)346/687 (50.4)427/966 (44.2)81/128 (62.3)BMI (kg/m2, n, mean [SD])15, 30.8 (3.6)553, 29.6 (6.6)579, 30.6 (6.9)45, 32.8 (10.6)Time since diagnosis (years, N, mean [SD])83, 8.7 (8.7)687, 7.1 (7.9)895, 11.7 (11.1)74, 11.7 (8.9)HLA-B27 positive (n/N [%])N/A58/335 (17.3)86/648 (13.3)N/APresence of EAMs (n/N [%])4/44 (9.1)27/687 (3.9)65/693 (9.4)2/33 (6.1%)Fulfillment of CASPAR (n/N [%])N/A391/687 (56.9)100/100 (100)N/ATherapy class (n [%]):*TNFi66 (79.5)478 (69.6)651 (67.3)104 (80.0)IL-17i11 (13.3)106 (15.4)191 (19.9)21 (16.2)IL-12/23i6 (7.2)33 (4.8)124 (12.9)5 (3.9)PDE4i48 (7.0)Other22 (3.2)Failure to achieve MDA within 6 months of starting therapy (n/N [%])**18/21 (87.5)184/246 (74.8)391/571 (68.1)30/43 (69.8)Failure to achieve DAPSA ≤14 within 6 months of starting therapy (n/N [%])**N/A74/110 (67.3)201/365 (55.1)3/3 (100.0)

*Patients may be taking >1 advanced therapy, **Not all patients had assessments of disease activity.

Conclusion

Preliminary data show approximately three quarters of Canadians with PsA failed to achieve MDA or LDA within 6 months of initiating an advanced therapy. Disease duration is a possible explanation for not achieving MDA or LDA; better therapeutic approaches are needed to achieve these outcomes in patients with PsA.

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Dr. Steve Ramkissoon, for supporting the statistical analysis of the IPART registry. Medical writing and statistical support (funded by Abbvie) were provided by John Howell and Hong Chen, respectively, from McDougall Scientific. Financial support for the study was provided by AbbVie. AbbVie participated in the design of the study, interpretation of data, review, and approval of this publication. All authors contributed to the development of the publication and maintained control over the final content.

Disclosure of Interests

Denis Choquette Speakers bureau: Amgen, Abbvie, CIHR, Novartis, Pfizer, Fresenius-Kabi, Eli Lilly, Sandoz, Tevapharm, Consultant of: Amgen, Abbvie, CIHR, Novartis, Pfizer, Fresenius-Kabi, Eli Lilly, Sandoz, Tevapharm, Grant/research support from: Rhumadata is supported through grants and research contracts from Amgen, Abbvie, CIHR, Novartis, Pfizer, Fresenius-Kabi, Eli Lilly, Sandoz, Tevapharm., Vinod Chandran Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, UCB, Pfizer, Employee of: Spouse is an employee of AstraZeneca, Marie-Claude Laliberté Shareholder of: AbbVie Corp., Employee of: AbbVie Corp., Pierre-André Fournier Shareholder of: AbbVie Corp., Employee of: AbbVie Corp., Tanya Girard Shareholder of: AbbVie Corp., Employee of: AbbVie Corp., Mitchell Sutton: None declared, Dafna D Gladman Consultant of: AbbVie, Amgen, BMS, Galapagos, Gilead, Eli Lilly, Janssen Novartis, Pfizer, UCB, Grant/research support from: AbbVie, Amgen, Eli Lilly, Janssen, Novartis, Pfizer, UCB

A Comparison of Methods for Identifying Informal Carers: Self-Declaration Versus a Time Diary

OBJECTIVES

Two main methods for identifying whether an individual is an informal carer are self-declaration and the use of a time diary. We analysed the level and predictors of agreement between these two methods among co-residential informal carers of adult recipients.

METHODS

We used the 2014/15 UK Time Use Survey, which is a large-scale household survey for those aged 8 years old and over. It contains an individual questionnaire for self-declaration and a time diary for activity-based identification that records all activity in 10-min slots for two 24-h periods. Our analysis: (i) assesses the degree of overlap across approaches; (ii) explores the differences in characteristics between carers identified via one approach relative to non-carers using a bivariate probit estimator; and (iii) shows what factors are associated with being identified by both approaches using two independent probit estimators.

RESULTS

Out of 6301 individuals, we identified 545 carers (8.6%) by at least one method and only 104 (19.1% of 545 carers) by both methods. We found similar factors predicted caregiving using either method but the magnitudes of the effects of these factors were larger for self-declared carers. Activity-based carers who provided more activities to a dependent adult and spent more time caregiving were more likely to also self-declare.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show low levels of agreement between the two main methods used to identify informal carers. Any assessment of current caregiving research or future means to collect caregiving information should pay particular attention to the identification method as it may only relate to certain carer groups.

The diagonal approach: A theoretic framework for the economic evaluation of vertical and horizontal interventions in healthcare

The diagonal approach is a health system funding concept wherein vertical approaches targeting specific diseases are combined with horizontal approaches intended to strengthen health systems broadly. This taxonomy can also be used to classify health system interventions as either vertical or horizontal. Previous studies have used mathematical programming to evaluate horizontal interventions, but these models have not allowed concurrent evaluation of different types of horizontal interventions or captured spillovers and intertemporal effects. This paper aims to develop a theoretic framework for the diagonal approach. The framework is articulated through integer programming, maximizing health benefits given constraints by identifying the optimal set of both vertical and horizontal interventions to fund. The theoretic framework for the diagonal approach is developed by synthesizing and expanding three prior works. The decision problem is synthesised to allow concurrent evaluation of three different types of horizontal interventions, those: (i) improving health system efficiency, (ii) improving capacity, and (iii) investing in new platforms. Linear programs are converted to integer form, relaxing previous assumptions related to constant returns to scale and divisibility of interventions. The framework is expanded to evaluate multiple budget constraints and options for new platforms. A new form for the value function is used to estimate the benefits of intervention combinations, capturing spillovers between vertical and horizontal interventions and dynamic returns to scale. The decision problem is specified inferotemporally, explicitly capturing the impact of the time horizon on the optimal choice set. Dynamic examples are provided to demonstrate the advantages of the diagonal approach over prior frameworks. This framework extends existing works, enabling simultaneous comparison of various combinations of both vertical and horizontal interventions, capturing spillovers and intertemporal effects. The diagonal approach framework defines decision problems flexibly and realistically, forming the basis for future applied work. Implementation would improve resource allocation and patient health outcomes.

Evaluation of the mental health impacts of Universal Credit: protocol for a mixed methods study

INTRODUCTION

The UK social security system is being transformed by the implementation of Universal Credit (UC), which combines six existing benefits and tax credits into a single payment for low-income households. Despite extensive reports of hardship associated with the introduction of UC, no previous studies have comprehensively evaluated its impact on mental health. Because payments are targeted at low-income households, impacts on mental health will have important consequences for health inequalities.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will conduct a mixed methods study. Work package (WP) 1 will compare health outcomes for new recipients of UC with outcomes for legacy benefit recipients in two large population surveys, using the phased rollout of UC as a natural experiment. We will also analyse the relationship between the proportion of UC claimants in small areas and a composite measure of mental health. WP2 will use data collected by Citizen's Advice to explore the sociodemographic and health characteristics of people who seek advice when claiming UC and identify features of the claim process that prompt advice-seeking. WP3 will conduct longitudinal in-depth interviews with up to 80 UC claimants in England and Scotland to explore reasons for claiming and experiences of the claim process. Up to 30 staff supporting claimants will also be interviewed. WP4 will use a dynamic microsimulation model to simulate the long-term health impacts of different implementation scenarios. WP5 will undertake cost-consequence analysis of the potential costs and outcomes of introducing UC and cost-benefit analyses of mitigating actions.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

We obtained ethical approval for the primary data gathering from the University of Glasgow, College of Social Sciences Research Ethics Committee, application number 400200244. We will use our networks to actively disseminate findings to UC claimants, the public, practitioners and policy-makers, using a range of methods and formats.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

The study is registered with the Research Registry: researchregistry6697.

Correction: Ethnic inequalities in COVID-19 vaccine uptake and comparison to seasonal influenza vaccine uptake in Greater Manchester, UK: A cohort study

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003932.].

Predictors of social participation: evidence from repeated cross-sectional population surveys in England

BACKGROUND

Social participation is linked to better health and well-being. However, there is limited research on the individual and area-level predictors of participation. This study aims to determine the characteristics associated with participation, particularly the impact of community asset availability.

METHODS

We used data from 34 582 adult respondents to the nationally representative Community Life Survey from 2013 to 2018. We measured social participation by reported participation in 15 types of groups. We used probit and negative binomial regression models and included a wide range of individual, household and area characteristics, and availability of 14 types of community assets.

RESULTS

The following characteristics were associated with higher levels of participation: being female (+3.0 percentage points (p.p.) (95% CI 1.8 to 4.1p.p.), Black, Asian or Minority Ethnicity (+3.7p.p. (1.9 to 5.5p.p.)), homeownership (+4.1 p.p. (2.7 to 5.6p.p.)) and living in a rural area (+2.1p.p. (0.5 to 3.6p.p)). Respondents from the most deprived areas were less likely to participate than those in average deprivation areas (-3.9p.p. (-5.9 to -1.99p.p.)). Higher availability of community assets was associated with increased participation in groups. The effect of availability on participation varied by type of asset.

CONCLUSION

Improving community assets infrastructure in high deprivation and urban areas would encourage more social participation in these areas.