How much downside? Quantifying the relative harm from tobacco taxation

Youth smoking and anti-smoking policies in North Dakota: a system dynamics simulation study

BACKGROUND

The current study utilizes system dynamics to model the determinants of youth smoking and simulate effects of anti-smoking policies in the context of North Dakota, a state with one of the lowest cigarette tax rates in the USA.

METHODS

An explanatory model was built to replicate historical trends in the youth smoking rate. Three different policies were simulated: 1) an increase in cigarette excise taxes; 2) increased funding for CDC-recommended comprehensive tobacco control programs; and 3) enforcement of increased retailer compliance with age restrictions on cigarette sales.

RESULTS

The explanatory model successfully replicated historical trends in adolescent smoking behavior in North Dakota from 1992 to 2014. The policy model showed that increasing taxes to $2.20 per pack starting in 2015 was the most effective of the three policies, producing a 32.6% reduction in youth smoking rate by 2032. Other policies reduced smoking by a much lesser degree (7.0 and 3.2% for comprehensive tobacco control program funding and retailer compliance, respectively). The effects of each policy were additive.

CONCLUSIONS

System dynamics modeling suggests that increasing cigarette excise taxes are particularly effective at reducing adolescent smoking rates. More generally, system dynamics offers an important complement to conventional analysis of observational data.

Smoking cessation in pregnancy: a continuing challenge in the United States

Despite significant population level declines, smoking during pregnancy remains a major public health issue in the United States (US). Approximately 360,000-500,000 smoke-exposed infants are born yearly, and prenatal smoking remains a leading modifiable cause of poor birth outcomes (e.g. birth < 37 gestational weeks, low birth weight, perinatal mortality). Women who smoke during pregnancy are more likely to be younger and from disadvantaged socioeconomic and racial and ethnic groups, with some US geographic regions reporting increased prenatal smoking rates since 2000. Such disparities in maternal prenatal smoking suggests some pregnant women face unique barriers to cessation. This paper reviews the current state and future direction of smoking cessation in pregnancy in the US. We briefly discuss the etiology of smoking addiction among women, the pathophysiology and effects of tobacco smoke exposure on pregnant women and their offspring, and the emerging issue of electronic nicotine delivery systems. Current population-based and individual smoking cessation interventions are reviewed in the context of pregnancy and barriers to cessation among US women. Finally, we consider interventions that are on the horizon and areas in need of further investigation.

Do changes in neighborhood and household levels of smoking and deprivation result in changes in individual smoking behavior? A large-scale longitudinal study of New Zealand adults

Health behavior takes place within social contexts. In this study, we investigated whether changes in exposure to neighborhood deprivation and smoking prevalence and to household smoking were associated with change in personal smoking behavior. Three waves of biannual data collection (2004-2009) in a New Zealand longitudinal study, the Survey of Family, Income and Employment (SoFIE)-Health, were used, with 13,815 adults (persons aged ≥15 years) contributing to the analyses. Smoking status was dichotomized as current smoking versus never/ex-smoking. Fixed-effects regression analyses removed time-invariant confounding and adjusted for time-varying covariates (neighborhood smoking prevalence and deprivation, household smoking, labor force status, income, household tenure, and family status). A between-wave decile increase in neighborhood deprivation was significantly associated with increased odds of smoking (odds ratio (OR) = 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.14), but a between-wave increase in neighborhood smoking prevalence was not (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 0.98, 1.10). Changing household exposures between waves to live with another smoker (compared with a nonsmoker (referent)) increased the odds of smoking (OR = 2.48, 95% CI: 1.84, 3.34), as did changing to living in a sole-adult household (OR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.14). Tobacco control policies and programs should address the broader household and neighborhood circumstances within which individual smoking takes place.

Health, Health Inequality, and Cost Impacts of Annual Increases in Tobacco Tax: Multistate Life Table Modeling in New Zealand

BACKGROUND

Countries are increasingly considering how to reduce or even end tobacco consumption, and raising tobacco taxes is a potential strategy to achieve these goals. We estimated the impacts on health, health inequalities, and health system costs of ongoing tobacco tax increases (10% annually from 2011 to 2031, compared to no tax increases from 2011 ["business as usual," BAU]), in a country (New Zealand) with large ethnic inequalities in smoking-related and noncommunicable disease (NCD) burden.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We modeled 16 tobacco-related diseases in parallel, using rich national data by sex, age, and ethnicity, to estimate undiscounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and net health system costs over the remaining life of the 2011 population (n = 4.4 million). A total of 260,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 155,000-419,000) QALYs were gained among the 2011 cohort exposed to annual tobacco tax increases, compared to BAU, and cost savings were US$2,550 million (95% UI: US$1,480 to US$4,000). QALY gains and cost savings took 50 y to peak, owing to such factors as the price sensitivity of youth and young adult smokers. The QALY gains per capita were 3.7 times greater for Māori (indigenous population) compared to non-Māori because of higher background smoking prevalence and price sensitivity in Māori. Health inequalities measured by differences in 45+ y-old standardized mortality rates between Māori and non-Māori were projected to be 2.31% (95% UI: 1.49% to 3.41%) less in 2041 with ongoing tax rises, compared to BAU. Percentage reductions in inequalities in 2041 were maximal for 45-64-y-old women (3.01%). As with all such modeling, there were limitations pertaining to the model structure and input parameters.

CONCLUSIONS

Ongoing tobacco tax increases deliver sizeable health gains and health sector cost savings and are likely to reduce health inequalities. However, if policy makers are to achieve more rapid reductions in the NCD burden and health inequalities, they will also need to complement tobacco tax increases with additional tobacco control interventions focused on cessation.

Effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on smoking behavior in high risk populations: a knowledge synthesis

Tobacco taxation is an essential component of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy. However, to fully realize the benefits it is vital to understand the impact of increased taxes among high-risk subpopulations. Are they influenced to the same extent as the general population? Do they need additional measures to influence smoking behavior? The objectives of this study were to synthesize the evidence regarding differential effects of taxation and price on smoking in: youth, young adults, persons of low socio-economic status, with dual diagnoses, heavy/long-term smokers, and Aboriginal people. Using a better practices approach, a knowledge synthesis was conducted using a systematic review of the literature and an expert advisory panel. Experts were involved in developing the study plan, discussing findings, developing policy recommendations, and identifying priorities for future research. Most studies found that raising cigarette prices through increased taxes is a highly effective measure for reducing smoking among youth, young adults, and persons of low socioeconomic status. However, there is a striking lack of evidence about the impact of increasing cigarette prices on smoking behavior in heavy/long-term smokers, persons with a dual diagnosis and Aboriginals. Given their high prevalence of smoking, urgent attention is needed to develop effective policies for the six subpopulations reviewed. These findings will be of value to policy-makers and researchers in their efforts to improve the effectiveness of tobacco control measures, especially with subpopulations at most risk. Although specific studies are needed, tobacco taxation is a key policy measure for driving success.

The $5 man: the underground economic response to a large cigarette tax increase in New York City

OBJECTIVES

We examined the mechanisms by which living in a disadvantaged minority community influences smoking and illegal cigarette sale and purchasing behaviors after a large cigarette tax increase.

METHODS

Data were collected from 14 focus groups (n=104) that were conducted during the spring of 2003 among Blacks aged 18 years and older living in New York City.

RESULTS

A large tax increase led to what focus group participants described as a pervasive illegal cigarette market in a low-income minority community. Perceived pro-smoking community norms, a stressful social and economic environment, and the availability of illegal cigarettes worked together to reinforce smoking and undermine cessation.

CONCLUSIONS

Although interest in quitting was high, bootleggers created an environment in which reduced-price cigarettes were easier to access than cessation services. This activity continues to undermine the public health goals of the tax increase.

What potential has tobacco control for reducing health inequalities? The New Zealand situation

In this Commentary, we aim to synthesize recent epidemiological data on tobacco and health inequalities for New Zealand and present it in new ways. We also aim to describe both existing and potential tobacco control responses for addressing these inequalities.

In New Zealand smoking prevalence is higher amongst Māori and Pacific peoples (compared to those of "New Zealand European" ethnicity) and amongst those with low socioeconomic position (SEP). Consequently the smoking-related mortality burden is higher among these populations. Regarding the gap in mortality between low and high socioeconomic groups, 21% and 11% of this gap for men and women was estimated to be due to smoking in 1996–99. Regarding the gap in mortality between Māori and non-Māori/non-Pacific, 5% and 8% of this gap for men and women was estimated to be due to smoking. The estimates from both these studies are probably moderate underestimates due to misclassification bias of smoking status. Despite the modest relative contribution of smoking to these gaps, the absolute number of smoking-attributable deaths is sizable and amenable to policy and health sector responses.

There is some evidence, from New Zealand and elsewhere, for interventions that reduce smoking by low-income populations and indigenous peoples. These include tobacco taxation, thematically appropriate mass media campaigns, and appropriate smoking cessation support services. But there are as yet untried interventions with major potential. A key one is for a tighter regulatory framework that could rapidly shift the nicotine market towards pharmaceutical-grade nicotine (or smokeless tobacco products) and away from smoked tobacco.

Tobacco taxation and public health: ethical problems, policy responses

This article aims to describe the major ethical issues surrounding tobacco taxation, and to identify policy responses to minimise any ethical dilemmas. It uses the standard ethical framework for biomedicine (covering beneficence, non-maleficence, respect for autonomy and justice), in conjunction with relevant data on tobacco taxation from various developed countries. Tobacco taxation contributes substantial benefits at the population level by protecting health (i.e., by deterring the uptake of smoking by youth, by promoting quitting, and by reducing harm from exposure to second-hand smoke (SHS)). However, tobacco taxes can contribute to financial hardship among low-socioeconomic status populations where smoking persists. Such taxes can contribute to autonomy, by reducing SHS exposure to non-smokers, and by allowing freedom from nicotine-dependency for those who quit smoking or do not start regular smoking as a result of high tobacco prices. Furthermore, increases in tobacco taxation may reduce health inequalities and so contribute to justice. Nevertheless, the additional tax burden imposed on smokers who wish to continue to smoke, or are unable to quit, can be considered unjust. The autonomy of such smokers may be partly impaired. Although tobacco tax can be regarded as ethically justifiable because of its substantial overall benefit to society, there is substantial scope for policy changes to further reduce any harms and injustices for those populations who continue to smoke.