Comparative total mortality in 25 years in Italian and Greek middle aged rural men

Mid-Arm Circumference and All-Cause, Cardiovascular, and Cancer Mortality among Obese and Non-Obese US Adults: the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III

Epidemiological studies have shown that mid-arm circumference (MAC) can be used to predict death risk and malnutrition. We performed a retrospective observational study involving 11,958 US participants aged 20–90 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III, 1988–1994, to determine the correlation between MAC and all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality risk in the obese and non-obese population. Death certificate data were obtained up to 2006. The participants were divided into three groups on the basis of body mass index: 19 ≤ BMI < 25 kg/m² (normal weight group), 25 ≤ BMI < 30 kg/m² (overweight group) and BMI ≥ 30 kg/m² (obesity group); each group was then divided into three subgroups depending on their MAC level. In the non-obese population, MAC was inversely associated with all-cause mortality; specifically, in the normal weight group, the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio of the T3 (29.6–42.0) cm subgroup was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.58–0.90) when compared with the T1 (18.0–27.2) cm, while the multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio of the T2 (27.3–29.5) cm subgroup was 0.76 (95% confidence interval: 0.64–0.91) when compared with the T1 (18.0–27.2) cm subgroup. The results indicate that MAC is inversely associated with all-cause mortality in non-obese individuals in the United States.

Optimal strategies for monitoring lipid levels in patients at risk or with cardiovascular disease: a systematic review with statistical and cost-effectiveness modelling

BACKGROUND

Various lipid measurements in monitoring/screening programmes can be used, alone or in cardiovascular risk scores, to guide treatment for prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Because some changes in lipids are due to variability rather than true change, the value of lipid-monitoring strategies needs evaluation.

OBJECTIVE

To determine clinical value and cost-effectiveness of different monitoring intervals and different lipid measures for primary and secondary prevention of CVD.

DATA SOURCES

We searched databases and clinical trials registers from 2007 (including the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Clinical Trials Register, the Current Controlled Trials register, and the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) to update and extend previous systematic reviews. Patient-level data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink and St Luke's Hospital, Japan, were used in statistical modelling. Utilities and health-care costs were drawn from the literature.

METHODS

In two meta-analyses, we used prospective studies to examine associations of lipids with CVD and mortality, and randomised controlled trials to estimate lipid-lowering effects of atorvastatin doses. Patient-level data were used to estimate progression and variability of lipid measurements over time, and hence to model lipid-monitoring strategies. Results are expressed as rates of true-/false-positive and true-/false-negative tests for high lipid or high CVD risk. We estimated incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year.

RESULTS

A total of 115 publications reported strength of association between different lipid measures and CVD events in 138 data sets. The summary adjusted hazard ratio per standard deviation of total cholesterol (TC) to high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio was 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.15 to 1.35) for CVD in a primary prevention population but heterogeneity was high (I(2) = 98%); similar results were observed for non-HDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein B and other ratio measures. Associations were smaller for other single lipid measures. Across 10 trials, low-dose atorvastatin (10 and 20 mg) effects ranged from a TC reduction of 0.92 mmol/l to 2.07 mmol/l, and low-density lipoprotein reduction of between 0.88 mmol/l and 1.86 mmol/l. Effects of 40 mg and 80 mg were reported by one trial each. For primary prevention, over a 3-year period, we estimate annual monitoring would unnecessarily treat 9 per 1000 more men (28 vs. 19 per 1000) and 5 per 1000 more women (17 vs. 12 per 1000) than monitoring every 3 years. However, annual monitoring would also undertreat 9 per 1000 fewer men (7 vs. 16 per 1000) and 4 per 1000 fewer women (7 vs. 11 per 1000) than monitoring at 3-year intervals. For secondary prevention, over a 3-year period, annual monitoring would increase unnecessary treatment changes by 66 per 1000 men and 31 per 1000 women, and decrease undertreatment by 29 per 1000 men and 28 per 1000 men, compared with monitoring every 3 years. In cost-effectiveness, strategies with increased screening/monitoring dominate. Exploratory analyses found that any unknown harms of statins would need utility decrements as large as 0.08 (men) to 0.11 (women) per statin user to reverse this finding in primary prevention.

LIMITATION

Heterogeneity in meta-analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

While acknowledging known and potential unknown harms of statins, we find that more frequent monitoring strategies are cost-effective compared with others. Regular lipid monitoring in those with and without CVD is likely to be beneficial to patients and to the health service. Future research should include trials of the benefits and harms of atorvastatin 40 and 80 mg, large-scale surveillance of statin safety, and investigation of the effect of monitoring on medication adherence.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003727.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A prospective study of arm circumference and risk of death in Bangladesh

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies have observed protective effects of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) against all-cause mortality mostly in Western populations. However, evidence on cause-specific mortality is limited.

METHODS

The sample included 19 575 adults from a population-based cohort study in rural Bangladesh, who were followed up for an average of 7.9 years for mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the effect of MUAC, as well as the joint effect of body mass index (BMI) and MUAC, on the risk of death from any cause, cancer and cardiovascular disease (CVD).

RESULTS

During 154 664 person-years of follow-up, 744 deaths including 312 deaths due to CVD and 125 deaths due to cancer were observed. There was a linear inverse relationship of MUAC with total and CVD mortality. Each 1-cm increase in MUAC was associated a reduced risk of death from any cause [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.85; 95% confidence interval (C), 0.81-0.89) and CVD (HR = 0.87; 95% CI, 0.80-0.94), after controlling for potential confounders. No apparent relationship between MUAC and the risk of death from cancer was observed. Among individuals with a low BMI (<18.5 kg/m(2)), a MUAC less than 24 cm was associated with increased risk for all-cause (HR = 1.81; 95% CI, 1.52-2.17) and CVD mortality (HR = 1.45; 95% CI, 1.11-1.91).

CONCLUSIONS

MUAC may play a critical role on all-cause and CVD mortality in lean Asians.

Forty-year follow-up of coronary heart disease mortality and its predictors: the Corfu cohort of the seven countries study

The authors examined the effect of several risk factors in relation to coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the Corfu cohort of the Seven Countries Study. The population studied in this analysis consisted of 529 rural men (age 40-59 years) enrolled in 1961. Multivariate analysis was performed with CHD death as the end point; age, blood pressure, heart rate, serum total cholesterol, smoking, physical activity, body mass index, skinfold thickness, vital capacity, and forced expiratory volume were the predictors. The 40-year CHD survival rate was 63% (108 deaths). Age (hazard ratio [HR]=1.093; p<0.001), smoking (HR=1.79; p<0.05), body mass index (HR=1.05; p<0.1), and serum total cholesterol (HR=1.004; p<0.2) were independently associated with 40-year CHD mortality. Conclusively, in men from the Corfu cohort, age, lifestyle habits (expressed as smoking and body mass index), and serum cholesterol levels were consistently associated with 40-year CHD mortality. In addition, the current status of men in the Corfu cohort is marked by long-term adoption of a Mediterranean type of diet, physical activity, and optimism.

Epidemiology of hypertension and associated cardiovascular risk factors in a country in transition: a population based survey in Tirana City, Albania

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To describe the prevalence of hypertension and other cardiovascular risk factors on the adult population of Tirana City (Albania).

DESIGN

Cross sectional survey.

SETTING

Tirana City in mid-2001.

PARTICIPANTS

1120 adults aged 25 years and over (response rate=72.7%).

MAIN RESULTS

Overall, hypertension prevalence (blood pressure =140 and/or 90 mm Hg, or known hypertensive receiving anti-hypertensive treatment) was 31.8% (36.6% and 27.4% in men and women respectively). Age standardised prevalence of hypertension (adjusted to the adult population of Tirana) was 30.2% (99% confidence intervals 29.8% to 30.6%) in men and 22.7% (22.3% to 23.1%) in women. Men were significantly more likely to be hypertensive than women (p value=0.001). Of those who had been diagnosed with hypertension, 87% were receiving anti-hypertensive therapy and more than half of them (52%) were adequately controlled. The prevalence of hypertension increased with increasing age and was more common in the obese in both sexes. While the prevalence of hypertension matched that in other industrialised and transition countries, the combination of hypertension with other cardiovascular risk factors was rather less common.

CONCLUSION

These findings provide important new evidence on the prevalence of hypertension and its association with other cardiovascular risk factors in Albania. Albania is in a state of rapid transition, with evidence that risk factors for non-communicable diseases have already increased considerably over the past two decades. These finding provide a unique baseline against which future change can be compared.

Forty-years (1961-2001) of all-cause and coronary heart disease mortality and its determinants: the Corfu cohort from the Seven Countries Study

AIMS

This study examined risk factors in relation to 40-year all-cause and coronary heart disease mortality in the Corfu cohort of the Seven Countries Study.

METHODS

The population studied in this analysis consisted of 529 rural middle-aged men enrolled in 1961. Multivariate analysis was performed using the proportional hazards Cox model with all-cause as well as coronary heart disease death as end points and age, blood pressure, serum total cholesterol, smoking, physical activity, body mass index, skinfold thickness, vital capacity and forced expiratory volume as predictors.

RESULTS

The 40-year all-cause mortality rate was 87.1% (461 deaths/529 individuals at entry), while the CHD mortality rate was 22.7% (120 deaths/529 individuals at entry). The proportion of CHD deaths varied from 16 to 28.5% of all deaths during the period investigated. Age (hazard ratio (HR)=1.08, P<0.001), smoking (HR=1.40, P<0.01), diastolic blood pressure (HR=1.01, P<0.05), and forced expiratory volume (HR=0.97, P<0.05) were independently associated with 40-year all-cause mortality. Moreover, age (HR=1.093, P<0.001), smoking (HR=1.596, P<0.05), and body mass index (HR=1.05, P<0.05) were independently associated with 40-year CHD mortality.

CONCLUSION

Among the investigated cardiovascular risk factors, age, smoking, physical activity, skinfold thickness, diastolic blood pressure, and forced expiratory volume seem to be associated with all-cause mortality, while age, smoking, and body mass index were consistently associated with 40-year CHD mortality.

The high-fat Greek diet: a recipe for all?

OBJECTIVE

To examine critically the published results of dietary surveys on the fat content of the Greek diet, and to assess its evolution and its relationship to the health of the Greeks. To consider the implications of these findings for current views on the nature and health implications of the traditional Mediterranean diet and how best to define it for use in modern policy making.

DESIGN

A systematic review of the literature on food consumption in Greece.

SETTING

Greece.

RESULTS

The first fully published data on the fat content of the Greek diet-the Seven Countries Survey-relates only to a small number of adult males in Crete and Corfu; the legitimacy of extrapolating these results to the rest of Greece is questioned. Earlier studies and chemical validation of intakes point to a lower fat content of the traditional diet than that inferred for Crete. Nearly all later surveys relate only to urban groups in Athens (mostly case-control hospital-based samples) and a variety of non-representative Cretan groups. Only two studies are larger and more representative, but one uses FAO food balance-sheets to reflect the national diet, and the other surveyed school-age children in three out of the 52 Greek counties. Unfortunately recent dietary studies have proved unreliable, given the continuing lack of national food composition tables with survey methods which proved inaccurate for dietary fat content. A progressive upward trend in total and saturated fat intake appears to have occurred with all health indicators in relation to fat indicating remarkable increases in adult and childhood obesity with attendant progressive deterioration in cardiovascular mortality and its risk factors, ie hypertension and diabetes. These data emphasise the need to alter current nutritional advice in Greece, particularly when it focuses on the promotion of olive oil and a high-fat diet.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings reaffirm low-moderate fat policies for optimum health, within which olive oil can be an important component of the diet.

Ageing research in Greece

Ageing research in Greece is well established. Research groups located in universities, research institutes or public hospitals are studying various and complementary aspects of ageing. These research activities include (a) functional analysis of Clusterin/Apolipoprotein J, studies in healthy centenarians and work on protein degradation and the role of proteasome during senescence at the National Hellenic Research Foundation; (b) regulation of cell proliferation and tissue formation, a nationwide study of determinants and markers of successful ageing in Greek centenarians and studies of histone gene expression and acetylation at the National Center for Scientific Research, Demokritos; (c) work on amyloid precursor protein and Presenilin 1 at the University of Athens; (d) oxidative stress-induced DNA damage and the role of oncogenes in senescence at the University of Ioannina; (e) studies in the connective tissue at the University of Patras; (f) proteomic studies at the Biomedical Sciences Research Center Alexander Fleming; (g) work on Caenorhabditis elegans at the Foundation for Research and Technology; (h) the role of ultraviolet radiation in skin ageing at Andreas Sygros Hospital; (i) follow-up studies in healthy elderly at the Athens Home for the Aged; and (j) socio-cultural aspects of ageing at the National School of Public Health. These research activities are well recognized by the international scientific community as it is evident by the group's very good publication records as well as by their direct funding from both European Union and USA. This article summarizes these research activities and discuss future directions and efforts towards the further development of the ageing field in Greece.