Phase 3, randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled study to evaluate the efficacy and safety of erenumab (amg 334) in migraine prevention: primary results of the strive trial

Effects of Anti-Calcitonin Gene-Related Peptide for Migraines: A Systematic Review with Meta-Analysis of Randomized Clinical Trials

We aimed to evaluate the response rate of migraines by using anti-calcitonin gene-related peptide (anti-CGRP) for patients with migraines. We searched three main medical databases up to 29 March 2019. No restriction on language and publication time were applied. Eligible trials included randomized clinical trials investigating a 50%, 75%, and 100% response rate of migraine patients after anti-CGRP intervention. The collected data were dichotomous, and risk ratios (RRs) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to present the quantitative synthesis results. The systematic review identified 16 eligible randomized clinical trials (RCTs) with 9439 patients. Eight of the 16 trials with 2516 patients reported a 50% response rate, and the pooled results showed a significant benefit from anti-CGRP. However, the effects seem to gradually reduce from the first month (RR 1.99, 95% CI 1.59 to 2.49) to the third month (RR 1.48, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.75) of treatment. The magnitude of effect was influenced by the type of anti-CGRP, according to the test for differences between subgroups (I-square = 53%). The funnel plots and Egger's tests did not show serious small study effects in the results. In conclusion, the current evidences confirmed that anti-CGRP treatment can reduce migraine pain in the short term (within three months), but the long-term effect should be investigated in the future. Moreover, its effects may be influenced by the type and dose of anti-CGRP. Therefore, future studies should make direct comparisons among anti-CGRP medications.

A Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Effect of Erenumab on Exercise Time During a Treadmill Test in Patients With Stable Angina

Objective

To determine the potential impact of erenumab, a human anti‐calcitonin gene‐related peptide (CGRP) receptor monoclonal antibody, on total exercise time (TET), time to exercise‐induced angina, and ST depression in a double‐blind, placebo‐controlled study in patients with stable angina due to documented coronary artery disease.

Background

The relative importance of the CGRP receptor pathway during myocardial ischemia has not been established.

Methods

An exercise treadmill test was conducted following a single IV infusion of erenumab 140 mg or placebo. The primary endpoint was the change from baseline in exercise duration as measured by TET with a noninferiority margin of −90 seconds. Safety follow‐up visits occurred through week 12. Eighty‐eight participants were included in the analysis.

Results

LS mean (SE) change in TET was −2.9 [14.8] seconds in the erenumab group and 8.1 [14.4] seconds in placebo; adjusted mean (90% CI) treatment difference was −11.0 (–44.9, 22.9) seconds. The CI lower bound (–44.9 sec) did not reach pre‐defined non‐inferiority margin of −90 seconds, demonstrating that TET change from baseline in the erenumab group was non‐inferior to placebo. There was no difference in time to exercise‐induced angina in erenumab and placebo groups (median [90% CI] time of 500 [420, 540] vs 508 [405, 572] seconds; hazard ratio [90% CI]: 1.11 [0.73, 1.69], P = .69) or time to onset of ≥1 mm ST‐segment depression (median [90% CI] time of 407 [380, 443] vs 420 [409,480] seconds; hazard ratio [95% CI]: 1.14 [0.76, 1.69], P = .59). Adverse events were reported by 27% and 32% of patients in erenumab and placebo groups.

Conclusions

Erenumab did not adversely affect exercise time in a high cardiovascular risk population of patients, supporting that inhibition of the canonical CGRP receptor does not worsen myocardial ischemia.

Migraine day frequency in migraine prevention: longitudinal modelling approaches

Background

Health economic models are critical tools to inform reimbursement agencies on health care interventions. Many clinical trials report outcomes using the frequency of an event over a set period of time, for example, the primary efficacy outcome in most clinical trials of migraine prevention is mean change in the frequency of migraine days (MDs) per 28 days (monthly MDs [MMD]) relative to baseline for active treatment versus placebo. Using these cohort-level endpoints in economic models, accounting for variation among patients is challenging. In this analysis, parametric models of change in MMD for migraine preventives were assessed using data from erenumab clinical studies.

Methods

MMD observations from the double-blind phases of two studies of erenumab were used: one in episodic migraine (EM) (NCT02456740) and one in chronic migraine (CM) (NCT02066415). For each trial, two longitudinal regression models were fitted: negative binomial and beta binomial. For a thorough comparison we also present the fitting from the standard multilevel Poisson and the zero inflated negative binomial.

Results

Using the erenumab study data, both the negative binomial and beta-binomial models provided unbiased estimates relative to observed trial data with well-fitting distribution at various time points.

Conclusions

This proposed methodology, which has not been previously applied in migraine, has shown that these models may be suitable for estimating MMD frequency. Modelling MMD using negative binomial and beta-binomial distributions can be advantageous because these models can capture intra- and inter-patient variability so that trial observations can be modelled parametrically for the purposes of economic evaluation of migraine prevention. Such models have implications for use in a wide range of disease areas when assessing repeated measured utility values.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12874-019-0664-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Estimating the clinical effectiveness and value-based price range of erenumab for the prevention of migraine in patients with prior treatment failures: a US societal perspective

BACKGROUND

Frequent migraine with four or more headache days per month is a common, disabling neurovascular disease. From a US societal perspective, this analysis models the clinical efficacy and estimates the value-based price (VBP) for erenumab, a fully human monoclonal antibody that inhibits the calcitonin gene-related peptide receptor.

METHODS

A Markov health state transition model was developed to estimate the incremental costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and value-based price range for erenumab in migraine prevention. The model comprises "on preventive treatment", "off preventive treatment", and "death" health states across a 10-year time horizon. The evaluation compared erenumab to no preventive treatment in episodic and chronic migraine patients that have failed at least one preventive therapy. Therapeutic benefits are based on estimated changes in monthly migraine days (MMD) from erenumab pivotal clinical trials and a network meta-analysis of migraine studies. Utilities were estimated using previously published mapping algorithms. A VBP analysis was performed to identify maximum erenumab annual prices at willingness-to-pay (WTP) thresholds of $100,000-$200,000 per QALY. Estimates of VBP under different scenarios such as choice of different comparators, assumptions around inclusion of placebo effect, and exclusion of work productivity losses were also generated.

RESULTS

Erenumab resulted in incremental QALYs of 0.185 vs supportive care (SC) and estimated cost offsets due to reduced MMD of $8,482 over 10 years, with an average duration of treatment of 2.01 years. The estimated VBP at WTP thresholds of $100,000-$200,000 for erenumab compared to SC ranged from $14,238-$23,998. VBP estimates including the placebo effect and excluding work productivity ranged from $7,445-$13,809; increasing to $12,151-$18,589 with onabotulinumtoxinA as a comparator in chronic migraine.

CONCLUSION

Erenumab is predicted to reduce migraine-related direct and indirect costs, and increase QALYs compared to SC.