Population-level effect of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa

The Effect of Hormonal Contraception and Menstrual Cycle Timing on Genital Herpes Simplex Virus-2 Shedding and Lesions

BACKGROUND

The effect of female sex hormones on herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 shedding and lesion frequency is poorly understood. Previous studies suggest that hormonal contraception may increase the frequency of HSV-2 shedding.

METHODS

We studied HSV-2 seropositive women who performed daily genital swabbing for HSV DNA and completed diaries for genital lesions and menses. We used Poisson mixed effects models to determine if HSV detection varied throughout the menstrual cycle, or in response to hormonal contraception. We used the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and rank-sum test to determine if lesion frequency differed by cycle phase or hormonal contraceptive use.

RESULTS

In 189 women aged 19 to 46 years who collected swabs on 10,715 days and were not using hormonal contraception, HSV-2 DNA was detected on 20.9% of days in the follicular phase and 17.8% of days in the luteal phase (rate ratio, 1.19; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.37, P = 0.02). Genital lesions did not differ in the follicular versus luteal phase (12.8% vs. 10.7%, P = 0.07). In analyses of hormonal contraception, including 244 women, HSV-2 DNA was detected on 19.0% of days for women not using hormonal contraception and 18.3% of days for those using hormonal contraception (P = 0.50). Lesions were present on 11.1% of days for women not using hormonal contraception, and 8.7% of days for those using hormonal contraception (P = 0.66).

CONCLUSIONS

In women with genital HSV-2 infection who are not using hormonal contraception, the follicular phase of the cycle may be associated with a higher frequency of HSV-2 shedding compared to the luteal phase. Lesion frequency is similar during the 2 menstrual phases. Hormonal contraception use was not observed to affect genital HSV-2 DNA detection or lesions.

Review of mathematical models of HSV-2 vaccination: Implications for vaccine development

Development of a vaccine against herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), a life-long sexually-transmitted infection (STI), would be a major step forward in improving global sexual and reproductive health. In this review, we identified published literature of dynamic mathematical models assessing the impact of either prophylactic or therapeutic HSV-2 vaccination at the population level. We compared each study's model structure and assumptions as well as predicted vaccination impact. We examined possible causes of heterogeneity across model predictions, key gaps, and the implications of these findings for future modelling efforts. Only eight modelling studies have assessed the potential public health impact of HSV-2 vaccination, with the majority focusing on impact of prophylactic vaccines. The studies showed that even an imperfect prophylactic HSV-2 vaccine could have an important public health impact on HSV-2 incidence, and could also impact HIV indirectly in high HIV prevalence settings. Therapeutic vaccines also may provide public health benefits, though they have been explored less extensively. However, there was substantial variation in predicted population-level impact for both types of vaccine, reflecting differences in assumptions between model scenarios. Importantly, many models did not account for heterogeneity in infection rates such as by age, sex and sexual activity. Future modelling work to inform decisions on HSV vaccine development and implementation should consider cost-effectiveness, account for additional HSV-2 sequelae such as neonatal transmission, and model greater heterogeneity in infection rates between individuals, more realistic vaccine deployment, and more thorough sensitivity and uncertainty analyses.

Lessons from a decade of individual-based models for infectious disease transmission: a systematic review (2006-2015)

Background

Individual-based models (IBMs) are useful to simulate events subject to stochasticity and/or heterogeneity, and have become well established to model the potential (re)emergence of pathogens (e.g., pandemic influenza, bioterrorism). Individual heterogeneity at the host and pathogen level is increasingly documented to influence transmission of endemic diseases and it is well understood that the final stages of elimination strategies for vaccine-preventable childhood diseases (e.g., polio, measles) are subject to stochasticity. Even so it appears IBMs for both these phenomena are not well established. We review a decade of IBM publications aiming to obtain insights in their advantages, pitfalls and rationale for use and to make recommendations facilitating knowledge transfer within and across disciplines.

Methods

We systematically identified publications in Web of Science and PubMed from 2006-2015 based on title/abstract/keywords screening (and full-text if necessary) to retrieve topics, modeling purposes and general specifications. We extracted detailed modeling features from papers on established vaccine-preventable childhood diseases based on full-text screening.

Results

We identified 698 papers, which applied an IBM for infectious disease transmission, and listed these in a reference database, describing their general characteristics. The diversity of disease-topics and overall publication frequency have increased over time (38 to 115 annual publications from 2006 to 2015). The inclusion of intervention strategies (8 to 52) and economic consequences (1 to 20) are increasing, to the detriment of purely theoretical explorations. Unfortunately, terminology used to describe IBMs is inconsistent and ambiguous. We retrieved 24 studies on a vaccine-preventable childhood disease (covering 7 different diseases), with publication frequency increasing from the first such study published in 2008. IBMs have been useful to explore heterogeneous between- and within-host interactions, but combined applications are still sparse. The amount of missing information on model characteristics and study design is remarkable.

Conclusions

IBMs are suited to combine heterogeneous within- and between-host interactions, which offers many opportunities, especially to analyze targeted interventions for endemic infections. We advocate the exchange of (open-source) platforms and stress the need for consistent “branding”. Using (existing) conventions and reporting protocols would stimulate cross-fertilization between research groups and fields, and ultimately policy making in decades to come.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2699-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Operations research in global health: a scoping review with a focus on the themes of health equity and impact

BACKGROUND

Operations research (OR) is a discipline that uses advanced analytical methods (e.g. simulation, optimisation, decision analysis) to better understand complex systems and aid in decision-making. Herein, we present a scoping review of the use of OR to analyse issues in global health, with an emphasis on health equity and research impact. A systematic search of five databases was designed to identify relevant published literature. A global overview of 1099 studies highlights the geographic distribution of OR and common OR methods used. From this collection of literature, a narrative description of the use of OR across four main application areas of global health - health systems and operations, clinical medicine, public health and health innovation - is also presented. The theme of health equity is then explored in detail through a subset of 44 studies. Health equity is a critical element of global health that cuts across all four application areas, and is an issue particularly amenable to analysis through OR. Finally, we present seven select cases of OR analyses that have been implemented or have influenced decision-making in global health policy or practice. Based on these cases, we identify three key drivers for success in bridging the gap between OR and global health policy, namely international collaboration with stakeholders, use of contextually appropriate data, and varied communication outlets for research findings. Such cases, however, represent a very small proportion of the literature found.

CONCLUSION

Poor availability of representative and quality data, and a lack of collaboration between those who develop OR models and stakeholders in the contexts where OR analyses are intended to serve, were found to be common challenges for effective OR modelling in global health.

Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of Recent and Long-Term HIV-1 Infections in Rural Western Kenya

Objective

To identify unique characteristics of recent versus established HIV infections and describe sexual transmission networks, we characterized circulating HIV-1 strains from two randomly selected populations of ART-naïve participants in rural western Kenya.

Methods

Recent HIV infections were identified by the HIV-1 subtype B, E and D, immunoglobulin G capture immunoassay (IgG BED-CEIA) and BioRad avidity assays. Genotypic and phylogenetic analyses were performed on the pol gene to identify transmitted drug resistance (TDR) mutations, characterize HIV subtypes and potential transmission clusters. Factors associated with recent infection and clustering were assessed by logistic regression.

Results

Of the 320 specimens, 40 (12.5%) were concordantly identified by the two assays as recent infections. Factors independently associated with being recently infected were age ≤19 years (P = 0.001) and history of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the past six months (P = 0.004). HIV subtype distribution differed in recently versus chronically infected participants, with subtype A observed among 53% recent vs. 68% chronic infections (p = 0.04) and subtype D among 26% recent vs. 12% chronic infections (p = 0.012). Overall, the prevalence of primary drug resistance was 1.16%. Of the 258 sequences, 11.2% were in monophyletic clusters of between 2–4 individuals. In multivariate analysis factors associated with clustering included having recent HIV infection P = 0.043 and being from Gem region P = 0.002.

Conclusions

Recent HIV-1 infection was more frequent among 13–19 year olds compared with older age groups, underscoring the ongoing risk and susceptibility of younger persons for acquiring HIV infection. Our findings also provide evidence of sexual networks. The association of recent infections with clustering suggests that early infections may be contributing significant proportions of onward transmission highlighting the need for early diagnosis and treatment as prevention for ongoing prevention. Larger studies are needed to better understand the structure of these networks and subsequently implement and evaluate targeted interventions.

In vitro anti-Herpes simplex virus activity of crude extract of the roots of Nauclea latifolia Smith (Rubiaceae)

Background

Nauclea latifolia Smith, a shrub belonging to the family Rubiaceae is a very popular medicinal plant in Cameroon and neighboring countries where it is used to treat jaundice, yellow fever, rheumatism, abdominal pains, hepatitis, diarrhea, dysentery, hypertension, as well as diabetes. The ethno-medicinal use against yellow fever, jaundice and diarrhea prompted us to investigate on the antiviral activity of the root bark of N. latifolia. In this study, HSV-2 was chosen as a viral model because of its strong impact on HIV transmission and acquisition.

Methods

The crude extract under study was prepared by maceration of air-dried and powdered roots barks of N. latifolia in CH₂Cl₂/MeOH (50:50) mixture for 48 hours, then it was subjected to filtration and evaporation under vacuum. A phytochemical analysis of the crude extract was performed by High Performance Liquid Chromatography coupled with a photodiode array and mass spectrometry (HPLC-PDA-ESI-qMS). The anti-HSV-2 activity was assayed in vitro by plaque reduction and virus yield assays and the major mechanism of action was investigated by virucidal and time of addition assays. Data values were compared using the Extra sum of squares F test of program GraphPad PRISM 4.

Results

The main components detected in the extract belong to the class of indole alkaloids characteristic of Nauclea genus. Strictosamide, vincosamide and pumiloside were tentatively identified together with quinovic acid glycoside. N. latifolia crude extract inhibited both acyclovir sensitive and acyclovir resistant HSV-2 strains, with IC₅₀ values of 5.38 μg/ml for the former and 7.17 μg/ml for the latter. The extract was found to be most active when added post-infection, with IC₅₀ of 3.63 μg/ml.

Conclusion

The results of this work partly justify the empirical use of N. latifolia in traditional medicine for the treatment of viral diseases. This extract could be a promising rough material for the development of a new and more effective modern anti-HSV-2 medication also active against acyclovir-resistant HSV-2 strains.

Elimination of HIV in South Africa through expanded access to antiretroviral therapy: a model comparison study

BACKGROUND

Expanded access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) using universal test and treat (UTT) has been suggested as a strategy to eliminate HIV in South Africa within 7 y based on an influential mathematical modeling study. However, the underlying deterministic model was criticized widely, and other modeling studies did not always confirm the study's finding. The objective of our study is to better understand the implications of different model structures and assumptions, so as to arrive at the best possible predictions of the long-term impact of UTT and the possibility of elimination of HIV.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed nine structurally different mathematical models of the South African HIV epidemic in a stepwise approach of increasing complexity and realism. The simplest model resembles the initial deterministic model, while the most comprehensive model is the stochastic microsimulation model STDSIM, which includes sexual networks and HIV stages with different degrees of infectiousness. We defined UTT as annual screening and immediate ART for all HIV-infected adults, starting at 13% in January 2012 and scaled up to 90% coverage by January 2019. All models predict elimination, yet those that capture more processes underlying the HIV transmission dynamics predict elimination at a later point in time, after 20 to 25 y. Importantly, the most comprehensive model predicts that the current strategy of ART at CD4 count ≤350 cells/µl will also lead to elimination, albeit 10 y later compared to UTT. Still, UTT remains cost-effective, as many additional life-years would be saved. The study's major limitations are that elimination was defined as incidence below 1/1,000 person-years rather than 0% prevalence, and drug resistance was not modeled.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirm previous predictions that the HIV epidemic in South Africa can be eliminated through universal testing and immediate treatment at 90% coverage. However, more realistic models show that elimination is likely to occur at a much later point in time than the initial model suggested. Also, UTT is a cost-effective intervention, but less cost-effective than previously predicted because the current South African ART treatment policy alone could already drive HIV into elimination. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

Health care seeking among men with genital ulcer disease in South Africa: correlates and relationship to human immunodeficiency virus-1 and herpes simplex virus type 2 detection and shedding

BACKGROUND

Episodic acyclovir therapy has been added to genital ulcer disease (GUD) syndromic management guidelines in several sub-Saharan African countries with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemics. We examined the correlates of health care seeking in men with GUD and its relationship to HIV-1 and herpes simplex virus type 2 outcomes.

METHODS

Men with GUD (n = 615) were recruited from primary health care clinics in Gauteng province, South Africa for a randomized controlled trial of episodic acyclovir therapy. We used baseline survey and sexually transmitted infection/HIV-testing data to examine delay in health care seeking (defined as time from ulcer recognition to baseline study visit).

RESULTS

Median delay in health care seeking for GUD was 5 days, and one-quarter of men had previously sought care for the current ulcer. Previous care seekers were older, had more episodes of ulceration in the past year, and were more likely to test seropositive for HIV-1 and HSV-2. Delay in health care seeking was significantly associated with age, education level, and sex during the ulceration episode. Delays in care seeking were related to poorer HIV-1 outcomes; these findings were valid after controlling for advanced HIV.

CONCLUSIONS

Interventions to help shorten the duration between ulcer recognition and health care seeking for men with GUD are needed.

Measuring and modelling concurrency

This article explores three critical topics discussed in the recent debate over concurrency (overlapping sexual partnerships): measurement of the prevalence of concurrency, mathematical modelling of concurrency and HIV epidemic dynamics, and measuring the correlation between HIV and concurrency. The focus of the article is the concurrency hypothesis - the proposition that presumed high prevalence of concurrency explains sub-Saharan Africa's exceptionally high HIV prevalence. Recent surveys using improved questionnaire design show reported concurrency ranging from 0.8% to 7.6% in the region. Even after adjusting for plausible levels of reporting errors, appropriately parameterized sexual network models of HIV epidemics do not generate sustainable epidemic trajectories (avoid epidemic extinction) at levels of concurrency found in recent surveys in sub-Saharan Africa. Efforts to support the concurrency hypothesis with a statistical correlation between HIV incidence and concurrency prevalence are not yet successful. Two decades of efforts to find evidence in support of the concurrency hypothesis have failed to build a convincing case.

[Economic evaluation in health: applications in infectious diseases]

The rise in healthcare expenditures due to the incorporation of new diagnostic and therapeutic technologies and increasing life expectancy is a major concern, particularly in developing countries. The role of economic evaluation in health is to optimize the benefits of available resources. This article aims to allow readers to identify the basic characteristics and types of economic evaluation in health and understand its methods, with an emphasis on infectious diseases. We thus review the following concepts: study perspective, analytic scope, costs, and discount rate. We also focus on characteristics of cost-minimization, cost-effectiveness, cost-utility, and cost-benefit analyses, with examples. The article describes the most popular study designs for economic evaluation, discusses different models, and examines the importance of sensitivity analysis. Our final comments address the importance of adopting economic evaluations in health in Brazil.

Modelling the interactions between herpes simplex virus type 2 and HIV: implications for the HIV epidemic in southern India

BACKGROUND

The role of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) in the HIV epidemic and the potential impact of HSV-2 suppressive therapy have previously been explored only within the context of sub-Saharan Africa. In this analysis, modelling is used to estimate the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV transmission from clients to female sex workers (FSW) in a southern Indian setting and the maximum potential impact of 'perfect' HSV-2 suppressive therapy on HIV incidence.

METHODS

A dynamic HSV-2/HIV model was developed, parameterised and fitted to Mysore data. The model estimated the attributable fractions of HIV infections due to HSV-2. Multivariate sensitivity analyses and regression analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

The model suggests that 36% (95% CI 22% to 62%) of FSW HIV infections were due to HSV-2, mostly through HSV-2 asymptomatic shedding. Even if HSV-2 suppressive therapy could eliminate the effect of HSV-2 on HIV infectivity among all co-infected clients, only 15% (95% CI 3% to 41%) of HIV infections among FSW would have been averted. 36% (95% CI 18% to 61%) of HIV infections among HSV-2-infected FSW could have been averted if suppressive therapy reduced their risk of HIV acquisition to that of HSV-2-uninfected FSW.

CONCLUSIONS

HSV-2 contributes substantially to HIV in this southern Indian context. However, even in the best case scenario, HSV-2 suppressive therapy is unlikely to reduce HIV transmission or acquisition by more than 50% (as aimed for in recent trials), because of the limited strength of the interaction effect between HSV-2 and HIV.

The effect of syndromic management interventions on the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

Few studies have assessed the effect of syndromic management interventions on the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) at a population level. This study aims to determine the effect of syndromic management protocols that have been introduced in South Africa since 1994.

STUDY DESIGN

A mathematical model of sexual behaviour patterns in South Africa was used to model the incidence of HIV, genital herpes, syphilis, chancroid, gonorrhoea, chlamydial infection, trichomoniasis, bacterial vaginosis and vaginal candidiasis. Assumptions about health seeking behaviour and treatment effectiveness were based on South African survey data. The model was fitted to available STI prevalence data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Reductions in STI prevalence due to syndromic management.

RESULTS

Between 1995 and 2005, there were significant reductions in the prevalence of syphilis, chancroid, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and chlamydial infection. In women aged between 15 and 49, syndromic management resulted in a 33% (95% CI: 23-43%) decline in syphilis prevalence, a 6% (95% CI: 3-11%) reduction in gonorrhoea prevalence, a 5% (95% CI: 1-13%) reduction in the prevalence of bacterial vaginosis and a substantial decline in chancroid. However, syndromic management did not significantly reduce the prevalence of other STIs. For all STIs, much of the modelled reduction in STI prevalence between 1995 and 2005 can be attributed to either increased condom usage or AIDS mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Syndromic management of STIs can be expected to decrease the prevalence of curable STIs that tend to become symptomatic, but has little effect on the prevalence of STIs that are mostly asymptomatic.

Modelling sexual transmission of HIV: testing the assumptions, validating the predictions

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact.

RECENT FINDINGS

We use mathematical modelling of 'universal test and treat' as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission.

SUMMARY

Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, whereas complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and, thus, be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis in which assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis.

Population-level effect of potential HSV2 prophylactic vaccines on HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa

Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV2) infection increases HIV transmission. We explore the impact of a potential prophylactic HSV2 vaccination on HIV incidence in Africa using STDSIM an individual-based model. A campaign that achieved 70% coverage over 5 years with a vaccine that reduced susceptibility to HSV2 acquisition and HSV2 reactivation by 75% for 10 years, reduced HIV incidence by 30-40% after 20 years (range 4-66%). Over 20 years, in most scenarios fewer than 100 vaccinations were required to avert one HIV infection. HSV2 vaccines could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. Intensified efforts are needed to develop an effective HSV2 vaccine.