Integration of production and financial models to analyse the financial impact of livestock diseases: a case study of Schmallenberg virus disease on British and French dairy farms

Development of LIME-NZ: a generic tool for prompt estimation of economic impacts of disease for New Zealand livestock

AIMS

To develop a simple and robust generic tool to measure the impacts of livestock diseases on New Zealand dairy, beef and sheep farms using enterprise gross margin models.

METHODS

The most recent (2018-2020) livestock production benchmarking data was extracted from industry-led economic surveys. Gross margin models were built for each enterprise type, accounting for 11 dairy farm types and 16 farm types for beef and sheep. Disease parameters, including changes in mortality, reproduction performance, milk yield, price of animals and culling rate, as well as additional expenses for veterinary intervention, were applied to the infected compartment of the herd/flock using the assumed annual within-herd disease incidence. Farm-level disease impacts were estimated as the difference in annual profit between the baseline and infected farm. The baseline gross margin models were validated against the industry data. The disease impact models were validated using a recently published study on bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD). The impact assessment tool, LIME-NZ, was developed using the statistical software R and implemented in the web-based R package Shiny. The input parameters can be varied interactively to obtain a range of disease impacts for uncertain disease parameters.

RESULTS

The baseline gross margin models demonstrated reasonable accuracy with a mean percentage error of <14% when compared with the industry reports. The estimated annual impacts of BVD were comparable to those reported in the BVD study, NZ$38.5-140.4 thousand and $0.9-32.6 thousand per farm per year for dairy and beef enterprises, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

LIME-NZ can be used to rapidly obtain the likely economic impacts of diseases that are endemic, recently introduced or at increased risk of introduction in the New Zealand context. This will aid communication and decision-making among government agencies and the livestock industry, including veterinarians and livestock producers, about the management of diseases, until refined information becomes available to improve decision-making.

Revisiting the Importance of Orthobunyaviruses for Animal Health: A Scoping Review of Livestock Disease, Diagnostic Tests, and Surveillance Strategies for the Simbu Serogroup

Orthobunyaviruses (order Bunyavirales, family Peribunyaviridae) in the Simbu serogroup have been responsible for widespread epidemics of congenital disease in ruminants. Australia has a national program to monitor arboviruses of veterinary importance. While monitoring for Akabane virus, a novel orthobunyavirus was detected. To inform the priority that should be given to this detection, a scoping review was undertaken to (1) characterise the associated disease presentations and establish which of the Simbu group viruses are of veterinary importance; (2) examine the diagnostic assays that have undergone development and validation for this group of viruses; and (3) describe the methods used to monitor the distribution of these viruses. Two search strategies identified 224 peer-reviewed publications for 33 viruses in the serogroup. Viruses in this group may cause severe animal health impacts, but only those phylogenetically arranged in clade B are associated with animal disease. Six viruses (Akabane, Schmallenberg, Aino, Shuni, Peaton, and Shamonda) were associated with congenital malformations, neurological signs, and reproductive disease. Diagnostic test interpretation is complicated by cross-reactivity, the timing of foetal immunocompetence, and sample type. Serological testing in surveys remains a mainstay of the methods used to monitor the distribution of SGVs. Given significant differences in survey designs, only broad mean seroprevalence estimates could be provided. Further research is required to determine the disease risk posed by novel orthobunyaviruses and how they could challenge current diagnostic and surveillance capabilities.

Estimating the financial impact of livestock schistosomiasis on traditional subsistence and transhumance farmers keeping cattle, sheep and goats in northern Senegal

Background

Schistosomiasis is a disease that poses major threats to human and animal health, as well as the economy, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Whilst many studies have evaluated the economic impact of schistosomiasis in humans, to date only one has been performed in livestock in SSA and none in Senegal. This study aimed to estimate the financial impact of livestock schistosomiasis in selected regions of Senegal.

Methods

Stochastic partial budget models were developed for traditional ruminant farmers in 12 villages in northern Senegal. The models were parameterised using data from a cross-sectional survey, focus group discussions, scientific literature and available statistics. Two scenarios were defined: scenario 1 modelled a situation in which farmers tested and treated their livestock for schistosomiasis, whilst scenario 2 modelled a situation in which there were no tests or treatment. The model was run with 10,000 iterations for 1 year; results were expressed in West African CFA francs (XOF; 1 XOF was equivalent to 0.0014 GBP at the time of analysis). Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the impact of uncertain variables on the disease costs.

Results

Farmers surveyed were aware of schistosomiasis in their ruminant livestock and reported hollowing around the eyes, diarrhoea and weight loss as the most common clinical signs in all species. For scenario 1, the median disease costs per year and head of cattle, sheep and goats were estimated at 13,408 XOF, 27,227 XOF and 27,694 XOF, respectively. For scenario 2, the disease costs per year and head of cattle, sheep and goats were estimated at 49,296 XOF, 70,072 XOF and 70,281 XOF, respectively.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that the financial impact of livestock schistosomiasis on traditional subsistence and transhumance farmers is substantial. Consequently, treating livestock schistosomiasis has the potential to generate considerable benefits to farmers and their families. Given the dearth of data in this region, our study serves as a foundation for further in-depth studies to provide estimates of disease impact and as a baseline for future economic analyses. This will also enable One Health economic studies where the burden on both humans and animals is estimated and included in cross-sectoral cost–benefit and cost-effectiveness analyses of disease control strategies.

Graphical Abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-05147-w.

Schmallenberg virus, cyclical reemergence in the core region: A seroepidemiologic study in wild cervids, Belgium, 2012-2017

Schmallenberg virus emerged in 2011 in Europe. The epicentre of primordial spreading was the region straddling Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium. One of the key questions is whether the newcomer would establish a lasting presence on the continent. The apparent seroprevalence in southern Belgium wild deer populations was followed for 6 years. Two years of intense circulation were revealed, 2012 and 2016, characterized by a peak seroprevalence in the two studied populations (Capreolus capreolus and Cervus elaphus). Between the peak years and after 2016, apparent seroprevalences declined rapidly among adults and became nil among juveniles. The general pattern of apparent seroprevalence evolution observed is consistent with a cyclic circulation of Schmallenberg virus, similar to what is observed for other Orthobunyaviruses in endemic areas. These data also suggest that wild cervids play no central role in the circulation dynamics of the virus.

Development of a multiplex assay for antibody detection in serum against pathogens affecting ruminants

Numerous infectious diseases impacting livestock impose an important economic burden and in some cases also represent a threat to humans and are classified as zoonoses. Some zoonotic diseases are transmitted by vectors and, due to complex environmental and socio‐economic factors, the distribution of many of these pathogens is changing, with increasing numbers being found in previously unaffected countries. Here, we developed a multiplex assay, based on a suspension microarray, able to detect specific antibodies to five important pathogens of livestock (three of them zoonotic) that are currently emerging in new geographical locations: Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV), Crimean‐Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV), Schmallenberg virus (SBV), Bluetongue virus (BTV) and the bacteria complex Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Using the Luminex platform, polystyrene microspheres were coated with recombinant proteins from each of the five pathogens. The mix of microspheres was used for the simultaneous detection of antibodies against the five corresponding diseases affecting ruminants. The following panel of sera was included in the study: 50 sera from sheep experimentally infected with RVFV, 74 sera from calves and lambs vaccinated with SBV, 26 sera from cattle vaccinated with Mycobacterium bovis, 30 field sera from different species of ruminants infected with CCHFV and 88 calf sera infected with BTV. Finally, to determine its diagnostic specificity 220 field sera from Spanish farms free of the five diseases were assessed. All the sera were classified using commercial ELISAs specific for each disease, used in this study as the reference technique. The results showed the multiplex assay exhibited good performance characteristics with values of sensitivity ranging from 93% to 100% and of specificity ranging from 96% to 99% depending on the pathogen. This new tool allows the simultaneous detection of antibodies against five important pathogens, reducing the volume of sample needed and the time of analysis where these pathogens are usually tested individually.

Schmallenberg virus: a systematic international literature review (2011-2019) from an Irish perspective

In Autumn 2011, nonspecific clinical signs of pyrexia, diarrhoea, and drop in milk yield were observed in dairy cattle near the German town of Schmallenberg at the Dutch/German border. Targeted veterinary diagnostic investigations for classical endemic and emerging viruses could not identify a causal agent. Blood samples were collected from animals with clinical signs and subjected to metagenomic analysis; a novel orthobunyavirus was identified and named Schmallenberg virus (SBV). In late 2011/early 2012, an epidemic of abortions and congenital malformations in calves, lambs and goat kids, characterised by arthrogryposis and hydranencephaly were reported in continental Europe. Subsequently, SBV RNA was confirmed in both aborted and congenitally malformed foetuses and also in Culicoides species biting midges. It soon became evident that SBV was an arthropod-borne teratogenic virus affecting domestic ruminants. SBV rapidly achieved a pan-European distribution with most countries confirming SBV infection within a year or two of the initial emergence. The first Irish case of SBV was confirmed in the south of the country in late 2012 in a bovine foetus.

Since SBV was first identified in 2011, a considerable body of scientific research has been conducted internationally describing this novel emerging virus. The aim of this systematic review is to provide a comprehensive synopsis of the most up-to-date scientific literature regarding the origin of SBV and the spread of the Schmallenberg epidemic, in addition to describing the species affected, clinical signs, pathogenesis, transmission, risk factors, impact, diagnostics, surveillance methods and control measures. This review also highlights current knowledge gaps in the scientific literature regarding SBV, most notably the requirement for further research to determine if, and to what extent, SBV circulation occurred in Europe and internationally during 2017 and 2018. Moreover, recommendations are also made regarding future arbovirus surveillance in Europe, specifically the establishment of a European-wide sentinel herd surveillance program, which incorporates bovine serology and Culicoides entomology and virology studies, at national and international level to monitor for the emergence and re-emergence of arboviruses such as SBV, bluetongue virus and other novel Culicoides-borne arboviruses.

Failure of Passive Immune Transfer in Calves: A Meta-Analysis on the Consequences and Assessment of the Economic Impact

Low colostrum intake at birth results in the failure of passive transfer (FPT) due to the inadequate ingestion of colostral immunoglobulins (Ig). FPT is associated with an increased risk of mortality and decreased health and longevity. Despite the known management practices associated with low FPT, it remains an important issue in the field. Neither a quantitative analysis of FPT consequences nor an assessment of its total cost are available. To address this point, a meta-analysis on the adjusted associations between FPT and its outcomes was first performed. Then, the total costs of FPT in European systems were calculated using a stochastic method with adjusted values as the input parameters. The adjusted risks (and 95% confidence intervals) for mortality, bovine respiratory disease, diarrhoea and overall morbidity in the case of FPT were 2.12 (1.43–3.13), 1.75 (1.50–2.03), 1.51 (1.05–2.17) and 1.91 (1.63–2.24), respectively. The mean (and 95% prediction interval) total costs per calf with FPT were estimated to be €60 (€10–109) and €80 (€20–139) for dairy and beef, respectively. As a result of the double-step stochastic method, the proposed economic estimation constitutes the first estimate available for FPT. The results are presented in a way that facilitates their use in the field and, with limited effort, combines the cost of each contributor to increase the applicability of the economic assessment to the situations farm-advisors may face. The present economic estimates are also an important tool to evaluate the profitability of measures that aim to improve colostrum intake and FPT prevention.

Application of integrated production and economic models to estimate the impact of Schmallenberg virus for various sheep production types in the UK and France

Objective

The present study aimed to estimate and compare the economic impact of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) in different sheep production holdings using partial budget and gross margin analyses in combination with production models.

Participants

The sheep production types considered were lowland spring lambing, upland spring lambing and early lambing flocks in the UK, and grass lamb flocks of the Centre and West of France, extensive lambing flocks and dairy sheep flocks in France.

Methodology

Two disease scenarios with distinct input parameters associated with reproductive problems were considered: low and high impact. Sensitivity analyses were performed for the most uncertain input parameters, and the models were run with all of the lowest and highest values to estimate the range of disease impact.

Results

The estimated net SBV disease cost per year and ewe for the UK was £19.65–£20.85 for the high impact scenario and £6.40–£6.58 for the low impact scenario. No major differences were observed between the different production types. For France, the net SBV disease cost per year and ewe for the meat sheep holdings was £15.59–£17.20 for the high impact scenario and £4.75–£5.26 for the low impact scenario. For the dairy sheep, the costs per year and ewe were £29.81 for the high impact scenario and £10.34 for the low impact scenario.

Conclusions

The models represent a useful decision support tool for farmers and veterinarians who are facing decisions regarding disease control measures. They allow estimating disease impact on a farm accounting for differing production practices, which creates the necessary basis for cost effectiveness analysis of intervention strategies, such as vaccination.