[Prognostic indexes of mortality in pediatric intensive care units]

Non-thyroidal illness syndrome and its relationship with mortality risk in critically ill children

Introduction

Non-thyroidal illness syndrome (NTIS) is considered to be associated with adverse outcomes in critically ill children.The hypothesis that thyroid hormones and inflammatory markers are associated with increased prediction of mortality risk scores is tested in this paper.

Methods

A prospective observational study was set up in a pediatric intensive care unit (PICU). One hundred and three patients were included. NTIS was defined as a low free triiodothyronine (FT3) value for the patient's age. Thyroid hormones levels and inflammatory markers were determined at admission: FT3, FT4 (free thyroxine), TSH (thyroid-stimulating hormone), rT3 (reverse triiodothyronine), CRP (C-reactive protein) and PCT (Procalcitonin). They were compared between children with a pediatric risk of mortality score PRISM-III >75th percentile (group A, n= 25) and the rest (group B, n = 78).

Results

A FT4 value lower than 16.6 pmol/L showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.655 (0.56-0.78, p = 0.02), with 76% sensitivity and 61.5% specificity to detect a high risk of mortality. A multiple regression analysis revealed that a FT4 lower than 16.6 pmol/L [OR: 4.92 (1.60-18.19), p = 0.009] and having NTIS [OR: 6.04 (1.45-27.93), p = 0.016] could predict a high risk of mortality.

Conclusions

In unselected critically ill children, FT4 and FT3 values at admission could be used as a good predictor of a high mortality risk. We have not achieved a predictive model that combines hormones with inflammatory markers.

Predicting the Risk of Mortality in Children using a Fuzzy-Probabilistic Hybrid Model

Introduction

The mortality risk in children admitted to Pediatric Intensive Care Units (PICU) is usually estimated by means of validated scales, which only include objective data among their items. Human perceptions may also add relevant information to prognosticate the risk of death, and the tool to use this subjective data is fuzzy logic. The objective of our study was to develop a mathematical model to predict mortality risk based on the subjective perception of PICU staff and to evaluate its accuracy compared to validated scales.

Methods

A prospective observational study in two PICUs (one in Spain and another in Latvia) was performed. Children were consecutively included regardless of the cause of admission along a two-year period. A fuzzy set program was developed for the PICU staff to record the subjective assessment of the patients' mortality risk expressed through a short range and a long range, both between 0% and 100%. Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (PIM2) and Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System 28 (TISS28) were also prospectively calculated for each patient. Subjective and objective predictions were compared using the logistic regression analysis. To assess the prognostication ability of the models a stratified B-random K-fold cross-validation was performed.

Results

Five hundred ninety-nine patients were included, 308 in Spain (293 survivors, 15 nonsurvivors) and 291 in Latvia (282 survivors, 9 nonsurvivors). The best logistic classification model for subjective information was the one based on MID (midpoint of the short range), whereas objective information was the one based on PIM2. Mortality estimation performance was 86.3% for PIM2, 92.6% for MID, and the combination of MID and PIM2 reached 96.4%.

Conclusions

Subjective assessment was as useful as validated scales to estimate the risk of mortality. A hybrid model including fuzzy information and probabilistic scales (PIM2) seems to increase the accuracy of prognosticating mortality in PICU.

Glycemia upon admission and mortality in a pediatric intensive care unit

Objectives

To analyze the association between glycemia levels upon pediatric intensive care unit admission and mortality in patients hospitalized.

Methods

A retrospective cohort of pediatric intensive care unit patients admitted to the Instituto Nacional de Salud del Niño between 2012 and 2013. A Poisson regression model with robust variance was used to quantify the association. Diagnostic test performance evaluation was used to describe the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratios for each range of glycemia.

Results

In total, 552 patients were included (median age 23 months, age range 5 months to 79.8 months). The mean glycemia level upon admission was 121.3mg/dL (6.73mmol/L). Ninety-two (16.6%) patients died during hospitalization. In multivariable analyses, significant associations were found between glycemia < 65mg/dL (3.61mmol/L) (RR: 2.01, 95%CI 1.14 - 3.53), glycemia > 200mg/dL (> 11.1mmol/L) (RR: 2.91, 95%CI 1.71 - 4.55), malnutrition (RR: 1.53, 95%CI 1.04 - 2.25), mechanical ventilation (RR: 3.71, 95%CI 1.17 - 11.76) and mortality at discharge. There was low sensitivity (between 17.39% and 39.13%) and high specificity (between 49.13% and 91.74%) for different glucose cut-off levels.

Conclusion

There was an increased risk of death at discharge in patients who developed hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia upon admission to the pediatric intensive care unit. Certain glucose ranges (> 200mg/dL (> 11.1mmol/L) and < 65mg/dL (3.61mmol/L)) have high specificity as predictors of death at discharge.

[Multiple organ failure after spontaneous return of circulation in cardiac arrest in children]

OBJECTIVE

To assess the frequency of the multiple organ failure and the prognostic value of multiple organ failure scores in children who have recovered from an in-hospital cardiac arrest.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A single centre, observational, and retrospective study was conducted on children between 1 month and 16 years old who suffered an in-hospital cardiac arrest and achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). In the first 24-48hours and between the fifth and the seventh day after ROSC, a record was made of the scores on paediatric severity (PRISM and PIM II) and multiple organ failure scales (PELOD and P-MODS), along with the clinical and analytical data, and including monitoring and treatment, mortality and cause of death.

RESULTS

Of the total of 41 children studied, 70.7% male were male, and the median age was 38 months. The overall mortality during admission was 41.5%, with 14.6% dying in the first 48hours, and 7.6% in the following 3 to 5 days. In the first 48hours, clinical severity and multiple organ failure scores were higher in the patients that died than in survivors (PRISM 29 vs. 21) P=.125, PIM II (26.8% vs. 9.2%) P=.02, PELOD (21 vs. 12) P=.005, and P-MODS (9 vs. 6) P=.001. Between the fifth and seventh day, the scores on the four scales were also higher in patients who died, but only those of the PELOD (20.5 vs. 11) p=.002 and P-MODS (6.5 vs. 3) P=.003 reached statistical significance.

CONCLUSIONS

Mortality in children after return of spontaneous circulation after cardiac arrest is high. The multiple organ failure after return of spontaneous circulation after cardiac arrest in children is associated with increased mortality.

Clinical characteristics and mortality risk prediction in critically ill children in Malaysian Borneo

INTRODUCTION

Mortality risk prediction scores are important for benchmarking quality of care in paediatric intensive care units (PICUs). We aimed to benchmark PICU outcomes at our hospital against the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 (PIM2) mortality risk prediction score, and evaluate differences in diagnosis on admission and outcomes between Malaysian and immigrant children.

METHODS

We prospectively collected demographic and clinical data on paediatric medical patients admitted to the PICU of Sabah Women's and Children's Hospital in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. The PIM2 risk score for mortality was tabulated.

RESULTS

Of the 131 patients who met the inclusion criteria, data was available for 115 patients. The mean age of the patients was 2.6 ± 3.8 years, with 79% of the cohort aged less than five years. Patients were mainly of Kadazan (38%) and Bajau (30%) descent, and 26% of patients were non-citizens. Leading diagnoses on admission were respiratory (37%), neurological (18%) and infectious (17%) disorders. Out of the 29 patients who died, 23 (79%) were Malaysians and the main mortality diagnostic categories were respiratory disorder (22%), septicaemia (22%), haemato-oncological disease (17%) and neurological disorder (13%). Calculated standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) were not significantly > 1 for any patient category for variables such as age and admission diagnosis. However, infants less than two years old with comorbidities were significantly worse (SMR 2.61, 95% confidence interval 1.02-6.66).

CONCLUSION

The patient profile at our centre was similar to that reported from other PICUs in Asia. The PIM2 score is a useful mortality risk prediction model for our population.

Application of pediatric index of mortality version 2: score in pediatric intensive care unit in an African developing country

Introduction

Outcome of patients admitted to PICU can be evaluated by many illness severity scoring systems. This prospective observational study evaluated the outcome of patients admitted to PICU in Fayoum University hospital of a developing country using the pediatric index of mortality version 2 scoring system.

Methods

All patients included in this study were subjected to data collection including demographics, diagnoses at admission, duration of ICU stay (DOS), pediatric index of mortality version 2 (PIM2) score and hospital outcome. The ratio of observed to predicted mortality (standardized mortality ratio (SMR)) was calculated for the set of patients.

Results

The study included 205 patients. The main causes of admission were respiratory, cardiovascular and neurological illnesses. Patients stay in ICU ranged from 1 - 45 days with a median 6 (interquartile range (IQ): 3-9) days. Discriminatory function of PIM2 scoring system was acceptable with the area under the ROC curve 0.76 (95%CI: 0.60-0.91). PIM2 calibrated well using Hosmer Lemeshow analysis (H-L X2= 1.410, df= 8, p=0.9). The mean predicted mortality was 5.6 (95% CI: 3.43 - 7.91) and the observed mortality was 8.8% giving a SMR 1.55.

Conclusion

PIM2 scoring system show adequate discriminatory function and well calibrated for the case mix of patients in PICU of Fayoum, Egypt. It can be used as beneficial tool for evaluation of risk adjusted mortality. Further larger scale studies in cooperation with other Egyptian universities and neighboring countries can improve the performance of our PICUs and critical care services.

Pro-adrenomedullin, pro-endothelin-1, procalcitonin, C-reactive protein and mortality risk in critically ill children: a prospective study

Introduction

We tested the hypothesis that higher mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), carboxy-terminal pro-endothelin-1 (CT-proET-1), procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) plasma concentrations would be associated with increased prediction of mortality risk scores.

Methods

Prospective observational study set in two pediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Two-hundred-thirty-eight patients were included. MR-proADM, CT-proET-1, PCT and CRP levels were compared between children with PRISM III and PIM 2 > p75 (Group A; n = 33) and the rest (Group B; n = 205).

Results

Median (range) MR-proADM levels were 1.39 nmol/L (0.52–12.67) in group A versus 0.54 (0.15–3.85) in group B (P < 0.001). CT-proET-1 levels were 172 pmol/L (27–500) versus 58 (4–447) (P < 0.001). PCT levels were 7.77 ng/mL (0.34–552.00) versus 0.28 (0.02–107.00) (P < 0.001). CRP levels were 6.23 mg/dL (0.08-28.25) versus 1.30 mg/dL (0.00-42.09) (P = 0.210). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for the differentiation of group A and B was 0.87 (95% CI:0.81–0.821) for MR-proADM, 0.86 (95% CI:0.79–0.92) for CT-proET-1 and 0.84 (95% CI:0.74–0.94) for PCT. A MR-proADM > 0.79 nmol/L had 93% sensitivity and 76% specificity to differentiate groups, whereas a CT-proET-1 > 123 pmol/L had 77% sensitivity and 84% specificity, and a PCT concentration > 2.05 ng/mL had 80% sensitivity and specificity.

Conclusions

In critically ill children, high levels of MR-proADM, CT-proET-1 and PCT were associated with increased prediction of mortality risk scores. MR-proADM, CT-proET-1 and PCT concentrations higher than 0.80 nmol/L, 123 pmol/L and 2 ng/mL, respectively, could be used by clinicians to identify critically ill children at higher prediction of risk death scores.

Validation of Pediatric Index of Mortality-2 scoring system in a pediatric intensive care unit, Barbados

This study evaluated the outcome of patients in a pediatric intensive care unit (ICU) of a developing country applying Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) version-2 scoring system. A total of 163 consecutive patients were prospectively studied. Data included demographics, diagnoses at admission, PIM-2 score, the duration of ICU stay and hospital outcome. Predicted mortality and standardized mortality ratio (SMR) were calculated. Respiratory and neurological illnesses were the main admission diagnoses. The mean length of stay was 5.4 [95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 4-6.9] days. The mean predicted mortality was 6.2% (95% CI: 4.3-8.1); the observed mortality rate was 5.5%, the SMR being 0.89. Hosmer-Lemeshow analysis calibrated PIM-2 for the case mix [χ(2) = 5.64 (df = 7), p = 0.58]. The area under the ROC curve was 0.82 (95% CI: 0.72-0.92) showing a good discriminant function. Performance of the pediatric ICU in Barbados is comparable to that of developed world by risk-adjusted outcome evaluation.

Application of the pediatric risk of mortality (PRISM) score and determination of mortality risk factors in a tertiary pediatric intensive care unit

INTRODUCTION

To establish disease severity at admission can be performed by way of the mortality prognostic. Nowadays the prognostic scores make part of quality control and research. The Pediatric Risk of Mortality is one of the scores used in the pediatric intensive care units.

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study is the utilization of the pediatric risk of mortality to determine mortality risk factors in a tertiary pediatric intensive care units.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study, in a period of one year, at a general tertiary pediatric intensive care unit. The pediatric risk of mortality scores corresponding to the first 24 hours of hospitalization were recorded; additional data were collected to characterize the study population.

RESULTS

359 patients were included; the variables that were found to be risk factors for death were multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, mechanical ventilation, use of vasoactive drugs, hospital-acquired infection, parenteral nutrition and duration of hospitalization (p < 0,0001). Fifty-four patients (15%) died; median pediatric risk of mortality score was significantly lower in patients who survived (p=0,0001). The ROC curve yielded a value of 0.76 (CI 95% 0,69-0,83) and the calibration was shown to be adequate.

DISCUSSION

It is imperative for pediatric intensive care units to implement strict quality controls to identify groups at risk of death and to ensure the adequacy of treatment. Although some authors have shown that the PRISM score overestimates mortality and that it is not appropriate in specific pediatric populations, in this study pediatric risk of mortality showed satisfactory discriminatory performance in differentiating between survivors and non-survivors.

CONCLUSIONS

The pediatric risk of mortality score showed adequate discriminatory capacity and thus constitutes a useful tool for the assessment of prognosis for pediatric patients admitted to a tertiary pediatric intensive care units.