Cancer suppression at old age

Pleomorphic Liposarcoma Revisited

Pleomorphic liposarcoma (PLPS) is the rarest and more aggressive subtype of liposarcomas, accounting for 10% of all liposarcomas. The diagnosis should be considered after the detection of multivacuolated pleomorphic lipoblasts in biopsy specimens. Wide-margin resection is the treatment of choice. Complementary treatment options, such as radiation therapy and chemotherapy, are debatable in terms of their contribution to curing patients with PLPS. This article reviews the clinical, histopathological, and molecular characteristics of PLPS and discusses the latest trends in the management, therapeutic strategies, and novel investigations of the subject. [Orthopedics. 2023;46(2):e72-e80.].

Profound synchrony of age-specific incidence rates and tumor suppression for different cancer types as revealed by the multistage-senescence model of carcinogenesis

The age-specific trend of cancer incidence rates, but not its magnitude, is well described employing the multistage theory of carcinogenesis by Armitage and Doll in combination with the senescence model of Pompei and Wilson. We derived empirical parameters of the multistage-senescence model from U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence data from 2000–2003 and 2010–2013 for The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) cancer types. Under the assumption of a constant tumor-specific transition rate between stages, there is an extremely strong linear relationship (P < 0.0001) between the number of stages and the stage transition rate. The senescence tumor suppression factor for 20 non-reproductive cancers is remarkably consistent (0.0099±0.0005); however, five female reproductive cancers have significantly higher tumor suppression. The peak incidence rate for non-reproductive cancers occurs at a younger age for cancers with fewer stages and their carcinogenic stages are of longer duration. Driver gene mutations are shown to contribute on average only about a third of the carcinogenic stages of different tumor types. A tumor’s accumulated incidence, calculated using a two-variable (age, stage) model, is strongly associated with intrinsic cancer risk. During both early adulthood and senescence, the pace of tumor suppression appears to be synchronized across most cancer types, suggesting the presence of overlapping evolutionary processes.

The prevalence of inorganic mercury in human cells increases during aging but decreases in the very old

Successful aging is likely to involve both genetic and environmental factors, but environmental toxicants that accelerate aging are not known. Human exposure to mercury is common, and mercury has genotoxic, autoimmune, and free radical effects which could contribute to age-related disorders. The presence of inorganic mercury was therefore assessed in the organs of 170 people aged 1-104 years to determine the prevalence of mercury in human tissues at different ages. Mercury was found commonly in cells of the brain, kidney, thyroid, anterior pituitary, adrenal medulla and pancreas. The prevalence of mercury in these organs increased during aging but decreased in people aged over 80 years. People with mercury in one organ usually also had mercury in several others. In conclusion, the prevalence of inorganic mercury in human organs increases with age. The relative lack of tissue mercury in the very old could account for the flattened mortality rate and reduced incidence of cancer in this advanced age group. Since mercury may accelerate aging, efforts to reduce atmospheric mercury pollution could improve the chances of future successful aging.

Senescence and Aging: Does It Impact Cancer Immunotherapies?

Cancer incidence increases drastically with age. Of the many possible reasons for this, there is the accumulation of senescent cells in tissues and the loss of function and proliferation potential of immune cells, often referred to as immuno-senescence. Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), by invigorating immune cells, have the potential to be a game-changers in the treatment of cancer. Yet, the variability in the efficacy of ICI across patients and cancer types suggests that several factors influence the success of such inhibitors. There is currently a lack of clinical studies measuring the impact of aging and senescence on ICI-based therapies. Here, we review how cellular senescence and aging, either by directly altering the immune system fitness or indirectly through the modification of the tumor environment, may influence the cancer-immune response.

Tumor resistance

It is suggested that evolution has equipped humans and other species with powerful and, largely non-immunological resistance mechanisms that can nip pre-neoplastic cells, as well as cells disseminating from established tumors in the bud. These mechanisms must operate while maintaining tissue structure, polarity and a large variety of cell-to-cell interactions. Altogether, they are essential for microenvironmental tissue integrity. It has further been postulated that the genes underpinning microenvironmental control are not merely alleles of known cancer susceptibility genes, but constitute sui generis systems.

Understanding the unimodal distributions of cancer occurrence rates: it takes two factors for a cancer to occur

Data from the SEER reports reveal that the occurrence rate of a cancer type generally follows a unimodal distribution over age, peaking at an age that is cancer-type specific and ranges from 30+ through 70+. Previous studies attribute such bell-shaped distributions to the reduced proliferative potential in senior years but fail to explain why some cancers have their occurrence peak at 30+ or 40+. We present a computational model to offer a new explanation to such distributions. The model uses two factors to explain the observed age-dependent cancer occurrence rates: cancer risk of an organ and the availability level of the growth signals in circulation needed by a cancer type, with the former increasing and the latter decreasing with age. Regression analyses were conducted of known occurrence rates against such factors for triple negative breast cancer, testicular cancer and cervical cancer; and all achieved highly tight fitting results, which were also consistent with clinical, gene-expression and cancer-drug data. These reveal a fundamentally important relationship: while cancer is driven by endogenous stressors, it requires sufficient levels of exogenous growth signals to happen, hence suggesting the realistic possibility for treating cancer via cleaning out the growth signals in circulation needed by a cancer.

Cancer mortality in the oldest old: a global overview

BACKGROUND

As a higher proportion of adults live beyond 85 years, their cancer burden is expected to increase. While trends among the oldest old are established for major epithelial cancers (breast, prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers), they are less studied for minor cancers. This study describes age trends of cancer mortality, with emphasis on individuals aged 85+ years.

RESULTS

Overall cancer mortality peaked at 85 years old and decreased or stabilized for all countries except the USA, France, and Japan, in which mortality continued to increase after age 85 years. For most countries, cancers of the oesophagus, stomach, liver, and larynx have a similar flat trend patterns across all ages. Bladder and kidney cancers as well as non-Hodgkin lymphoma, multiple myeloma, and leukemia showed a decreasing pattern after 85 years for UK, Germany, Italy and Poland. Lung cancer peaked at 80 years, although the age-specific peak among women did not follow the same pattern among all countries. Breast and prostate cancers increased after 85 years.

CONCLUSION

Mortality stabilized or decreased after age 85, particularly for non-hormonal cancers. Whether this reflects a true biological levelling of mortality rates, or lower validity of cancer registration among the oldest old, remains open to discussion.

METHODS

Completed death data were obtained from the World Health Organization (WHO) for eight countries (2000 to 2014). Age-specific mortality rates were calculated for each 5-year age group above age 64. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify significant changes in mortality trends by age.

Increasing Incidence of Liposarcoma: A Population-Based Study of National Surveillance Databases, 2001-2016

Rare cancers, affecting 1 in 5 cancer patients, disproportionally contribute to cancer mortality. This research focuses on liposarcoma, an understudied rare cancer with unknown risk factors and limited treatment options. Liposarcoma incident cases were identified from the U.S. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) program and the combined SEER-National Program of Cancer Registries (CNPCR) between 2001–2016. Incidence rates (age-adjusted and age-specific), 5-year survival, and the time trends were determined using SEER*stat software. Three-dimensional visualization of age–time curves was conducted for males and females. SEER liposarcoma cases represented ~30% (n = 11,162) of the nationwide pool (N = 37,499). Both sources of data showed males accounting for ~60% of the cases; 82%–86% cases were identified among whites. Age-adjusted incidence was greater among males vs. females and whites vs. blacks, whereas survival did not differ by sex and race. The dedifferentiated (57.2%), pleomorphic (64.1%), and retroperitoneal (63.9%) tumors had the worse survival. Nationwide, liposarcoma rates increased by 19%, with the annual percent increase (APC) of 1.43% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12–1.74). The APC was greater for males vs. females (1.67% vs. 0.89%) and retroperitoneal vs. extremity tumors (1.94% vs. 0.58%). Thus, incidence increased faster in the high-risk subgroup (males), and for retroperitoneal tumors, the low-survival subtype. The SEER generally over-estimated the rates and time trends compared to nationwide data but under-estimated time trends for retroperitoneal tumors. The time trends suggest an interaction between genetic and non-genetic modifiable risk factors may play a role in the etiology of this malignancy. Differences between SEER and CNCPR findings emphasize the need for nationwide cancer surveillance.

Cancer Incidence in Older Adults in the United States: Characteristics, Specificity, and Completeness of the Data

INTRODUCTION

The number of cancer cases in the United States continues to grow as the number of older adults increases. Accurate, reliable and detailed incidence data are needed to respond effectively to the growing human costs of cancer in an aging population. The purpose of this study was to examine the characteristics of incident cases and evaluate the impact of death-certificate-only (DCO) cases on cancer incidence rates in older adults.

METHODS

Using data from 47 cancer registries and detailed population estimates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, we examined reporting sources, methods of diagnosis, tumor characteristics, and calculated age-specific incidence rates with and without DCO cases in adults aged 65 through ≥95 years, diagnosed 2011 through 2015, by sex and race/ethnicity.

RESULTS

The percentage of cases (all cancers combined) reported from a hospital decreased from 90.6% (ages 65-69 years) to 69.1% (ages ≥95 years) while the percentage of DCO cases increased from 1.1% to 19.6%. Excluding DCO cases, positive diagnostic confirmation decreased as age increased from 96.8% (ages 65-69 years) to 69.2% (ages ≥95 years). Compared to incidence rates that included DCO cases, rates in adults aged ≥95 years that excluded DCO cases were 41.5% lower in Black men with prostate cancer and 29.2% lower in Hispanic women with lung cancer.

DISCUSSION

Loss of reported tumor specificity with age is consistent with fewer hospital reports. However, the majority of cancers diagnosed in older patients, including those aged ≥95 years, were positively confirmed and were reported with known site, histology, and stage information. The high percentage of DCO cases among patients aged ≥85 years suggests the need to explore additional sources of follow-back to help possibly identify an earlier incidence report. Interstate data exchange following National Death Index linkages may help registries identify and remove erroneous DCO cases from their databases.

The LNT model for cancer induction is not supported by radiobiological data

The hallmarks of cancer have been the focus of much research and have influenced the development of risk models for radiation-induced cancer. However, natural defenses against cancer, which constitute the hallmarks of cancer prevention, have largely been neglected in developing cancer risk models. These natural defenses are enhanced by low doses and dose rates of ionizing radiation, which has aided in the continuation of human life over many generations. Our natural defenses operate at the molecular, cellular, tissue, and whole-body levels and include epigenetically regulated (epiregulated) DNA damage repair and antioxidant production, selective p53-independent apoptosis of aberrant cells (e.g. neoplastically transformed and tumor cells), suppression of cancer-promoting inflammation, and anticancer immunity (both innate and adaptive components). This publication reviews the scientific bases for the indicated cancer-preventing natural defenses and evaluates their implication for assessing cancer risk after exposure to low radiation doses and dose rates. Based on the extensive radiobiological evidence reviewed, it is concluded that the linear-no-threshold (LNT) model (which ignores natural defenses against cancer), as it relates to cancer risk from ionizing radiation, is highly implausible. Plausible models include dose-threshold and hormetic models. More research is needed to establish when a given model (threshold, hormetic, or other) applies to a given low-dose-radiation exposure scenario.

Asymptotic Relative Risk Results from a Simplified Armitage and Doll Model of Carcinogenesis

We examine basic asymptotic properties of relative risk for two families of generalized Erlang processes (where each one is based off of a simplified Armitage and Doll multistage model) in order to predict relative risk data from cancer. The main theorems that we are able to prove are all corroborated by large clinical studies involving relative risk for former smokers and transplant recipients. We then show that at least some of these theorems do not extend to other Armitage and Doll multistage models. We conclude with suggestions for lifelong increased cancer screening for both former smoker and transplant recipient subpopulations of individuals and possible future directions of research.

Characteristic patterns of cancer incidence: Epidemiological data, biological theories, and multistage models

We investigate and classify several patterns in cancer incidence and relative risk data which persist across different countries and multiple published studies. We then explore biological hypotheses as well as many mathematical models in the literature that attempt to explain these patterns. A general modeling framework is presented which is general enough to model most of observed behaviors. It is our belief that this model has sufficient flexibility to be adapted to new information as it is discovered. As one application of this framework, we give a model for the effect of aging on the process of carcinogenesis.

Tumor-host signaling interaction reveals a systemic, age-dependent splenic immune influence on tumor development

The concept of age-dependent host control of cancer development raises the natural question of how these effects manifest across the host tissue/organ types with which a tumor interacts, one important component of which is the aging immune system. To investigate this, changes in the spleen, an immune nexus in the mouse, was examined for its age-dependent interactive influence on the carcinogenesis process. The model is the C57BL/6 male mice (adolescent, young adult, middle-aged, and old or 68, 143, 551 and 736 days old respectively) with and without a syngeneic murine tumor implant. Through global transcriptome analysis, immune-related functions were found to be key regulators in the spleen associated with tumor progression as a function of age with CD2, CD3ε, CCL19, and CCL5 being the key molecules involved. Surprisingly, other than CCL5, all key factors and immune-related functions were not active in spleens from non-tumor bearing old mice. Our findings of age-dependent tumor-spleen signaling interaction suggest the existence of a global role of the aging host in carcinogenesis. Suggested is a new avenue for therapeutic improvement that capitalizes on the pervasive role of host aging in dictating the course of this disease.

Analysis of cancer genomes reveals basic features of human aging and its role in cancer development

Somatic mutations have long been implicated in aging and disease, but their impact on fitness and function is difficult to assess. Here by analysing human cancer genomes we identify mutational patterns associated with aging. Our analyses suggest that age-associated mutation load and burden double approximately every 8 years, similar to the all-cause mortality doubling time. This analysis further reveals variance in the rate of aging among different human tissues, for example, slightly accelerated aging of the reproductive system. Age-adjusted mutation load and burden correlate with the corresponding cancer incidence and precede it on average by 15 years, pointing to pre-clinical cancer development times. Behaviour of mutation load also exhibits gender differences and late-life reversals, explaining some gender-specific and late-life patterns in cancer incidence rates. Overall, this study characterizes some features of human aging and offers a mechanism for age being a risk factor for the onset of cancer.

Somatic mutations are associated with disease, including cancer. Here, the authors analyse cancer genomic data and show that somatic mutations increase with age and that cancer incidence lags 15 years behind this increase, later in life, mutation and cancer incidence are reduced.

Considering GH replacement for GH-deficient adults with a previous history of cancer: a conundrum for the clinician

Previous studies have shown that GH and IGF-I may enhance tumorigenesis, metastasis, and cell proliferation in humans and animals. Evidence supporting this notion is derived from animal model studies, epidemiological studies, experience from patients with acromegaly, molecular therapeutic manipulation of GH and IGF-I actions, and individuals with GH receptor and congenital IGF-I deficiencies. Prior exposure to radiation therapy, aging, family history of cancer, and individual susceptibility may also contribute to increase this risk. Therefore, the use of GH replacement in patients with a history of cancer raises hypothetical safety concerns for patients, caregivers, and providers. Studies of GH therapy in GH-deficient adults with hypopituitarism and childhood cancer survivors have not convincingly demonstrated an increased cancer risk. Conversely, the risk of occurrence of a second neoplasm (SN) in childhood cancer survivors may be increased, with meningiomas being the most common tumor; however, this risk appears to decline over time. In light of these findings, if GH replacement is to be considered in patients with a previous history of cancer, we propose this consideration to be based on each individual circumstance and that such therapy should only be initiated at least 2 years after cancer remission is achieved with the understanding that in some patients (particularly those with childhood cancers), GH may potentially increase the risk of SNs. In addition, close surveillance should be undertaken working closely with the patient's oncologist. More long-term data are thus needed to determine if GH replacement in GH-deficient adults with a history of cancer is associated with the development of de novo tumors and tumor recurrence.

Host age is a systemic regulator of gene expression impacting cancer progression

Aging is the major determinant of cancer incidence, which, in turn, is likely dictated in large part by processes that influence the progression of early subclinical (occult) cancers. However, there is little understanding of how aging informs changes in aggregate host signaling that favor cancer progression. In this study, we provide direct evidence that aging can serve as an organizing axis to define cancer progression-modulating processes. As a model system to explore this concept, we employed adolescent (68 days), young adult (143 days), middle-aged (551 days), and old (736 days) C57BL/6 mice as syngeneic hosts for engraftment of Lewis lung cancer to identify signaling and functional processes varying with host age. Older hosts exhibited dysregulated angiogenesis, metabolism, and apoptosis, all of which are associated with cancer progression. TGFβ1, a central player in these systemic processes, was downregulated consistently in older hosts. Our findings directly supported the conclusion of a strong host age dependence in determining the host tumor control dynamic. Furthermore, our results offer initial mechanism-based insights into how aging modulates tumor progression in ways that may be actionable for therapy or prevention.

Putative mechanisms responsible for the decline in cancer prevalence during organism senescence

Most scientific literature reports that aging favors the development of cancers. Each type of cancer, however, initiates and evolves differently, and their natural history can start much earlier in life before their clinical manifestations. The incidence of cancers is spread throughout human life span, and is the result of pre- and post-natal aggressions, individual susceptibility, developmental changes that evolve continuously throughout an individual's life, and time of exposure to carcinogens. Finally, during human senescence, the incidence declines for all cancers. Frequently, the progression of cancers is also slower in aged individuals. There are several possible explanations for this decline at the tissue, cell, and molecular levels, which are described here in. It is time to ask why some tumors are characteristic of either the young, the aged, or during the time of a decline in the reproductive period, and finally, why the incidence of cancers declines late during senescence of human beings. These questions need to be addressed before the origin of cancers can be understood.

Minimizing second cancer risk following radiotherapy: current perspectives

Secondary cancer risk following radiotherapy is an increasingly important topic in clinical oncology with impact on treatment decision making and on patient management. Much of the evidence that underlies our understanding of secondary cancer risks and our risk estimates are derived from large epidemiologic studies and predictive models of earlier decades with large uncertainties. The modern era is characterized by more conformal radiotherapy technologies, molecular and genetic marker approaches, genome-wide studies and risk stratifications, and sophisticated biologically based predictive models of the carcinogenesis process. Four key areas that have strong evidence toward affecting secondary cancer risks are 1) the patient age at time of radiation treatment, 2) genetic risk factors, 3) the organ and tissue site receiving radiation, and 4) the dose and volume of tissue being irradiated by a particular radiation technology. This review attempts to summarize our current understanding on the impact on secondary cancer risks for each of these known risk factors. We review the recent advances in genetic studies and carcinogenesis models that are providing insight into the biologic processes that occur from tissue irradiation to the development of a secondary malignancy. Finally, we discuss current approaches toward minimizing the risk of radiation-associated secondary malignancies, an important goal of clinical radiation oncology.

An age-period-cohort analysis of cancer incidence among the oldest old, Utah 1973-2002

We used age-period-cohort (APC) analyses to describe the simultaneous effects of age, period, and cohort on cancer incidence rates in an attempt to understand the population dynamics underlying their patterns among those aged 85+. Data from the Utah Cancer Registry (UCR), the US Census, the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), and the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) programme were used to generate age-specific estimates of cancer incidence at ages 65-99 from 1973 to 2002 for Utah. Our results showed increasing cancer incidence rates up to the 85-89 age group followed by declines at ages 90-99 when not confounded by the separate influences of period and cohort effects. We found significant period and cohort effects, suggesting the role of environmental mechanisms in cancer incidence trends between the ages of 85 and 100.

Mutator/Hypermutable fetal/juvenile metakaryotic stem cells and human colorectal carcinogenesis

Adult age-specific colorectal cancer incidence rates increase exponentially from maturity, reach a maximum, then decline in extreme old age. Armitage and Doll (1) postulated that the exponential increase resulted from "n" mutations occurring throughout adult life in normal "cells at risk" that initiated the growth of a preneoplastic colony in which subsequent "m" mutations promoted one of the preneoplastic "cells at risk" to form a lethal neoplasia. We have reported cytologic evidence that these "cells at risk" are fetal/juvenile organogenic, then preneoplastic metakaryotic stem cells. Metakaryotic cells display stem-like behaviors of both symmetric and asymmetric nuclear divisions and peculiarities such as bell shaped nuclei and amitotic nuclear fission that distinguish them from embryonic, eukaryotic stem cells. Analyses of mutant colony sizes and numbers in adult lung epithelia supported the inferences that the metakaryotic organogenic stem cells are constitutively mutator/hypermutable and that their contributions to cancer initiation are limited to the fetal/juvenile period. We have amended the two-stage model of Armitage and Doll and incorporated these several inferences in a computer program CancerFit v.5.0. We compared the expectations of the amended model to adult (15-104 years) age-specific colon cancer rates for European-American males born 1890-99 and observed remarkable concordance. When estimates of normal colonic fetal/juvenile APC and OAT gene mutation rates (∼2-5 × 10(-5) per stem cell doubling) and preneoplastic colonic gene loss rates (∼8 × 10(-3)) were applied, the model was in accordance only for the values of n = 2 and m = 4 or 5.

p53 mutations associated with aging-related rise in cancer incidence rates

TP53’s role as guardian of the genome diminishes with age, as the probability of mutation increases. Previous studies have shown an association between p53 gene mutations and cancer. However, the role of somatic TP53 mutations in the steep rise in cancer rates with aging has not been investigated at a population level. This relationship was quantified using the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) TP53 and GLOBOCAN cancer databases. The power function exponent of the cancer rate was calculated for 5-y age-standardized incidence or mortality rates for up to 25 cancer sites occurring in adults of median age 42 to 72 y. Linear regression analysis of the mean percentage of a cancer’s TP53 mutations and the corresponding cancer exponent was conducted for four populations: worldwide, Japan, Western Europe, and the United States. Significant associations (P ≤ 0.05) were found for incidence rates but not mortality rates. Regardless of the population studied, positive associations were found for all cancer sites, with more significant associations for solid tumors, excluding the outlier prostate cancer or sex-related tumors. Worldwide and Japanese populations yielded P values as low as 0.002 and 0.005, respectively. For the United States, a significant association was apparent only when analysis utilized the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. This study found that TP53 mutations accounts for approximately one-quarter and one-third of the aging-related rise in the worldwide and Japanese incidence of all cancers, respectively. These significant associations between TP53 mutations and the rapid rise in cancer incidence with aging, considered with previously published literature, support a causal role for TP53 according to the Bradford-Hill criteria. However, questions remain concerning the contribution of TP53 mutations to neoplastic development and the role of factors such as genetic instability, obesity, and gene deficiencies other than TP53 that reduce p53 activity.

Similarities in the Age-Specific Incidence of Colon and Testicular Cancers

Colon cancers are thought to be an inevitable result of aging, while testicular cancers are thought to develop in only a small fraction of men, beginning in utero. These models of carcinogenesis are, in part, based upon age-specific incidence data. The specific incidence for colon cancer appears to monotonically increase with age, while that of testicular cancer increases to a maximum value at about 35 years of age, then declines to nearly zero by the age of 80. We hypothesized that the age-specific incidence for these two cancers is similar; the apparent difference is caused by a longer development time for colon cancer and the lack of age-specific incidence data for people over 84 years of age. Here we show that a single distribution can describe the age-specific incidence of both colon carcinoma and testicular cancer. Furthermore, this distribution predicts that the specific incidence of colon cancer should reach a maximum at about age 90 and then decrease. Data on the incidence of colon carcinoma for women aged 85–99, acquired from SEER and the US Census, is consistent with this prediction. We conclude that the age specific data for testicular cancers and colon cancers is similar, suggesting that the underlying process leading to the development of these two forms of cancer may be similar.

Basic equations and computing procedures for frailty modeling of carcinogenesis: application to pancreatic cancer data

Modeling of cancer hazards at age t deals with a dichotomous population, a small part of which (the fraction at risk) will get cancer, while the other part will not. Therefore, we conditioned the hazard function, h(t), the probability density function (pdf), f(t), and the survival function, S(t), on frailty α in individuals. Assuming α has the Bernoulli distribution, we obtained equations relating the unconditional (population level) hazard function, h_U(t), cumulative hazard function, H_U(t), and overall cumulative hazard, H₀, with the h(t), f(t), and S(t) for individuals from the fraction at risk. Computing procedures for estimating h(t), f(t), and S(t) were developed and used to fit the pancreatic cancer data collected by SEER9 registries from 1975 through 2004 with the Weibull pdf suggested by the Armitage-Doll model. The parameters of the obtained excellent fit suggest that age of pancreatic cancer presentation has a time shift about 17 years and five mutations are needed for pancreatic cells to become malignant.

Are incidence rates of adult leukemia in the United States significantly associated with birth cohort?

BACKGROUND

Leukemia is a common cancer among U.S. adults but there are few established risk factors. If leukemia risks are substantially influenced by exposures that vary in prevalence across generations, then population incidence rates should vary significantly by birth cohort. However, prior studies have not examined leukemia birth cohort effects using contemporary data and methods.

METHODS

We used incidence data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Program from 1992 through 2009 for adults 25-84 years old and age period cohort models to estimate incidence rate ratios according to birth cohort for acute myeloid leukemia (AML), acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL), chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), and chronic lymphoid leukemia (CLL).

RESULTS

Leukemia incidence varied significantly between birth cohorts for each major leukemia type in men and women except female AMLs; changes on the order of 1% per birth year or 20% per generation were observed. The most significant birth cohort signatures were observed for CLLs and AMLs in men, which were decreasing and increasing, respectively, in cohorts born since 1946.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the hypothesis that adult leukemia risks are significantly modulated by environmental and lifestyle exposures.

IMPACT

A number of well-established (smoking, certain chemicals, radiation) and newly recognized (obesity) leukemia risk factors are modifiable; ultimately, efforts to promote healthy lifestyles might also help reduce incidence rates of adult leukemia.

A new hypothesis for the cancer mechanism

Several observations have led us to a new hypothesis for cancer mechanism. First, that cancer appears only on those multicellular organisms with complicated wound-healing capacities. Second, that wounds considered as risk factors can be identified in all cancers in clinics. And finally, that oncogene activation appears not only in cancer, but also in normal physiology and noncancer pathology processes. Our proposed hypothesis is that cancer is a natural wound healing-related process, which includes oncogene activations, cytokine secretions, stem cell recruitment differentiation, and tissue remodeling. Wounds activate oncogenes of some cells and the latter secrete cytokines to recruit stem cells to heal the wounds. However, if the cause of the wound or if the wound persists, such as under the persistent UV and carcinogen exposures, the continuous wound healing process will lead to a clinical cancer mass. There is no system in nature to stop or reverse the wound healing process in the middle stage when the wound exists. The outcome of the cancer mechanism is either healing the wound or exhausting the whole system (death). The logic of this cancer mechanism is consistent with the rationales of the other physiological metabolisms in the body-for survival. This hypothesis helps to understand many cancer mysteries derived from the mutation theory, such as why cancer only exists in a small proportion of multicellular organisms, although they are all under potential mutation risks during DNA replications. The hypothesis can be used to interpret and guide cancer prevention, recurrence, metastasis, in vitro and in vivo studies, and personalized treatments.

A heuristic solution of the identifiability problem of the age-period-cohort analysis of cancer occurrence: lung cancer example

BACKGROUND

The Age-Period-Cohort (APC) analysis is aimed at estimating the following effects on disease incidence: (i) the age of the subject at the time of disease diagnosis; (ii) the time period, when the disease occurred; and (iii) the date of birth of the subject. These effects can help in evaluating the biological events leading to the disease, in estimating the influence of distinct risk factors on disease occurrence, and in the development of new strategies for disease prevention and treatment.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We developed a novel approach for estimating the APC effects on disease incidence rates in the frame of the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort (LLAPC) model. Since the APC effects are linearly interdependent and cannot be uniquely estimated, solving this identifiability problem requires setting four redundant parameters within a set of unknown parameters. By setting three parameters (one of the time-period and the birth-cohort effects and the corresponding age effect) to zero, we reduced this problem to the problem of determining one redundant parameter and, used as such, the effect of the time-period adjacent to the anchored time period. By varying this identification parameter, a family of estimates of the APC effects can be obtained. Using a heuristic assumption that the differences between the adjacent birth-cohort effects are small, we developed a numerical method for determining the optimal value of the identification parameter, by which a unique set of all APC effects is determined and the identifiability problem is solved.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

We tested this approach while estimating the APC effects on lung cancer occurrence in white men and women using the SEER data, collected during 1975-2004. We showed that the LLAPC models with the corresponding unique sets of the APC effects estimated by the proposed approach fit very well with the observational data.

Age-specific incidence data indicate four mutations are required for human testicular cancers

Normal human cells require a series of genetic alterations to undergo malignant transformation. Direct sequencing of human tumors has identified hundreds of mutations in tumors, but many of these are thought to be unnecessary and a result of, rather than a cause of, the tumor. The exact number of mutations to transform a normal human cell into a tumor cell is unknown. Here I show that male gonadal germ cell tumors, the most common form of testicular cancers, occur after four mutations. I infer this by constructing a mathematical model based upon the multi-hit hypothesis and comparing it to the age-specific incidence data. This result is consistent with the multi-hit hypothesis, and implies that these cancers are genetically or epigenetically predetermined at birth or an early age.

Corrections to: ‘‘Age distribution of cancer in mice’’

We found a crucial error in an earlier paper on cancer in elderly mice, Age distribution of cancer in mice: the incidence turnover at old age (Pompei et al., 2001). That paper’s principal data set, the ED01 records, was scrambled when read and analyzed with a statistical software package. Having done our best to correct the error, and having subjected the data to a more exact extension of originally published methods, we arrive at conclusions significantly different from those proposed in the original article. What appeared to be a dramatic fall off of the cancer mortality rate in mice over 2 years of age is now found to be a continuation or flattening of approximately exponential growth. This new finding is entirely at odds with the old, and does not support our later work on humans. Two of this paper’s authors, F Pompei and R Wilson, contributed to the original article. We are informing authors who have cited our paper in the past and apologize deeply for any wasted time or lost work. We should have subjected the ED01 records to more error checks. We thank Jennifer Blank for helping us discover and correct this error. The ED01 records and our earlier research are available http://physics.harvard.edu/∼wilson/cancer&chemicals/ED01.

Weibull-like Model of Cancer Development in Aging

Mathematical modeling of cancer development is aimed at assessing the risk factors leading to cancer. Aging is a common risk factor for all adult cancers. The risk of getting cancer in aging is presented by a hazard function that can be estimated from the observed incidence rates collected in cancer registries. Recent analyses of the SEER database show that the cancer hazard function initially increases with the age, and then it turns over and falls at the end of the lifetime. Such behavior of the hazard function is poorly modeled by the exponential or compound exponential-linear functions mainly utilized for the modeling. In this work, for mathematical modeling of cancer hazards, we proposed to use the Weibull-like function, derived from the Armitage-Doll multistage concept of carcinogenesis and an assumption that number of clones at age t developed from mutated cells follows the Poisson distribution. This function is characterized by three parameters, two of which (r and λ) are the conventional parameters of the Weibull probability distribution function, and an additional parameter (C₀) that adjusts the model to the observational data. Biological meanings of these parameters are: r—the number of stages in carcinogenesis, λ—an average number of clones developed from the mutated cells during the first year of carcinogenesis, and C₀—a data adjustment parameter that characterizes a fraction of the age-specific population that will get this cancer in their lifetime. To test the validity of the proposed model, the nonlinear regression analysis was performed for the lung cancer (LC) data, collected in the SEER 9 database for white men and women during 1975–2004. Obtained results suggest that: (i) modeling can be improved by the use of another parameter A- the age at the beginning of carcinogenesis; and (ii) in white men and women, the processes of LC carcinogenesis vary by A and C₀, while the corresponding values of r and λ are nearly the same. Overall, the proposed Weibull-like model provides an excellent fit of the estimates of the LC hazard function in aging. It is expected that the Weibull-like model can be applicable to fit estimates of hazard functions of other adult cancers as well.

A novel approach for analysis of the log-linear age-period-cohort model: application to lung cancer incidence

A simple, computationally efficient procedure for analyses of the time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of the age-specific incidence rates of cancers is proposed. Assuming that cohort effects for neighboring cohorts are almost equal and using the Log-Linear Age-Period-Cohort Model, this procedure allows one to evaluate temporal trends and birth cohort variations of any type of cancer without prior knowledge of the hazard function. This procedure was used to estimate the influence of time period and birth cohort effects on the distribution of the age-specific incidence rates of first primary, microscopically confirmed lung cancer (LC) cases from the SEER9 database. It was shown that since 1975, the time period effect coefficients for men increase up to 1980 and then decrease until 2004. For women, these coefficients increase from 1975 up to 1990 and then remain nearly constant. The LC birth cohort effect coefficients for men and women increase from the cohort of 1890–94 until the cohort of 1925–29, then decrease until the cohort of 1950–54 and then remain almost unchanged. Overall, LC incidence rates, adjusted by period and cohort effects, increase up to the age of about 72–75, turn over, and then fall after the age of 75–78. The peak of the adjusted rates in men is around the age of 77–78, while in women, it is around the age of 72–73. Therefore, these results suggest that the age distribution of the incidence rates in men and women fall at old ages.

A Generalized Beta model for the age distribution of cancers: application to pancreatic and kidney cancer

The relationships between cancer incidence rates and the age of patients at cancer diagnosis are a quantitative basis for modeling age distributions of cancer. The obtained model parameters are needed to build rigorous statistical and biological models of cancer development. In this work, a new mathematical model, called the Generalized Beta (GB) model is proposed. Confidence intervals for parameters of this model are derived from a regression analysis. The GB model was used to approximate the incidence rates of the first primary, microscopically confirmed cases of pancreatic cancer (PC) and kidney cancer (KC) that served as a test bed for the proposed approach. The use of the GB model allowed us to determine analytical functions that provide an excellent fit for the observed incidence rates for PC and KC in white males and females. We make the case that the cancer incidence rates can be characterized by a unique set of model parameters (such as an overall cancer rate, and the degree of increase and decrease of cancer incidence rates). Our results suggest that the proposed approach significantly expands possibilities and improves the performance of existing mathematical models and will be very useful for modeling carcinogenic processes characteristic of cancers. To better understand the biological plausibility behind the aforementioned model parameters, detailed molecular, cellular, and tissue-specific mechanisms underlying the development of each type of cancer require further investigation. The model parameters that can be assessed by the proposed approach will complement and challenge future biomedical and epidemiological studies.

Genome instability, cancer and aging

DNA damage-driven genome instability underlies the diversity of life forms generated by the evolutionary process but is detrimental to the somatic cells of individual organisms. The cellular response to DNA damage can be roughly divided in two parts. First, when damage is severe, programmed cell death may occur or, alternatively, temporary or permanent cell cycle arrest. This protects against cancer but can have negative effects on the long term, e.g., by depleting stem cell reservoirs. Second, damage can be repaired through one or more of the many sophisticated genome maintenance pathways. However, erroneous DNA repair and incomplete restoration of chromatin after damage is resolved, produce mutations and epimutations, respectively, both of which have been shown to accumulate with age. An increased burden of mutations and/or epimutations in aged tissues increases cancer risk and adversely affects gene transcriptional regulation, leading to progressive decline in organ function. Cellular degeneration and uncontrolled cell proliferation are both major hallmarks of aging. Despite the fact that one seems to exclude the other, they both may be driven by a common mechanism. Here, we review age-related changes in the mammalian genome and their possible functional consequences, with special emphasis on genome instability in stem/progenitor cells.

Colon cancer and the elderly: from screening to treatment in management of GI disease in the elderly

Colorectal cancer is one of the commonest tumours in the Westernized world affecting mainly the elderly. This neoplasm in older individuals occurs more often in the right colon and grows more rapidly than in the young, often shows a mucinous histology and mismatch repair gene changes. Effective screening permits discovery of colorectal cancer at an early highly treatable stage and allows for detection and removal of premalignant colorectal adenomas. Screening methods that focus on cancer detection use fecal assays for the presence of blood or altered DNA, those for detection of adenomas (and early cancer) use endoscopic or computerised radiologic techniques. Broad use of screening methods has lowered colorectal cancer development by about 50%. In addition, prevention of the earliest stage of colon carcinogenesis has been shown to be effective in small prospective studies and epidemiologic surveys but have not been employed in the general population. Since 1996 the chemotherapeutic armamentarium for metastatic colorectal cancer has grown beyond 5-fluorouracil to include an oral 5-fluorouracil prodrug, capecitabine as well as irinotecan and oxaliplatin. Three targeted monoclonal antibodies (Moabs), bevacizumab (an anti-vascular endothelial growth factor Moab) and cetuximab/panitumumab, both anti-epidermal growth factor receptor inhibitors, have also earned regulatory approval. Most stage IV patients are treated with all of these drugs over 2 or 3 sequential lines of palliative chemotherapy and attain median survivals approaching 24 months. Lastly, adjuvant oxaliplatin plus 5-fluorouracil for high risk resected stage II and stage III colon cancer patient has led to substantial improvement in cure rates. With appropriate care of age associated comorbidities these treatment modalities are feasible and effective in the geriatric population.

Ageing, oxidative stress and cancer: paradigms in parallax

Two paradigms central to geroscience research are that aging is associated with increased oxidative stress and increased cancer risk. Therefore, it could be deduced that cancers arising with ageing will show evidence of increased oxidative stress. Recent studies of gene expression in age-controlled breast cancer cases indicate that this deduction is false, posing parallax views of these two paradigms, and highlighting the unanswered question: does ageing cause or simply permit cancer development?

Puzzles, promises and a cure for ageing

Recent discoveries in the science of ageing indicate that lifespan in model organisms such as yeast, nematodes, flies and mice is plastic and can be manipulated by genetic, nutritional or pharmacological intervention. A better understanding of the targets of such interventions, as well as the proximate causes of ageing-related degeneration and disease, is essential before we can evaluate if abrogation of human senescence is a realistic prospect.