Multiple sclerosis: disability and mortality in a cohort of clinically diagnosed patients

Early clinical markers of aggressive multiple sclerosis

Patients with the ‘aggressive’ form of multiple sclerosis accrue disability at an accelerated rate, typically reaching Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥ 6 within 10 years of symptom onset. Several clinicodemographic factors have been associated with aggressive multiple sclerosis, but less research has focused on clinical markers that are present in the first year of disease. The development of early predictive models of aggressive multiple sclerosis is essential to optimize treatment in this multiple sclerosis subtype. We evaluated whether patients who will develop aggressive multiple sclerosis can be identified based on early clinical markers. We then replicated this analysis in an independent cohort. Patient data were obtained from the MSBase observational study. Inclusion criteria were (i) first recorded disability score (EDSS) within 12 months of symptom onset; (ii) at least two recorded EDSS scores; and (iii) at least 10 years of observation time, based on time of last recorded EDSS score. Patients were classified as having ‘aggressive multiple sclerosis’ if all of the following criteria were met: (i) EDSS ≥ 6 reached within 10 years of symptom onset; (ii) EDSS ≥ 6 confirmed and sustained over ≥6 months; and (iii) EDSS ≥ 6 sustained until the end of follow-up. Clinical predictors included patient variables (sex, age at onset, baseline EDSS, disease duration at first visit) and recorded relapses in the first 12 months since disease onset (count, pyramidal signs, bowel-bladder symptoms, cerebellar signs, incomplete relapse recovery, steroid administration, hospitalization). Predictors were evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Independent validation was performed using data from the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry. Of the 2403 patients identified, 145 were classified as having aggressive multiple sclerosis (6%). Bayesian model averaging identified three statistical predictors: age > 35 at symptom onset, EDSS ≥ 3 in the first year, and the presence of pyramidal signs in the first year. This model significantly predicted aggressive multiple sclerosis [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.80, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.75, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.98]. The presence of all three signs was strongly predictive, with 32% of such patients meeting aggressive disease criteria. The absence of all three signs was associated with a 1.4% risk. Of the 556 eligible patients in the Swedish Multiple Sclerosis Registry cohort, 34 (6%) met criteria for aggressive multiple sclerosis. The combination of all three signs was also predictive in this cohort (AUC = 0.75, 95% CIs: 0.66, 0.84, positive predictive value = 0.15, negative predictive value = 0.97). Taken together, these findings suggest that older age at symptom onset, greater disability during the first year, and pyramidal signs in the first year are early indicators of aggressive multiple sclerosis.

Aggressive multiple sclerosis: proposed definition and treatment algorithm

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a CNS disorder characterized by inflammation, demyelination and neurodegeneration, and is the most common cause of acquired nontraumatic neurological disability in young adults. The course of the disease varies between individuals: some patients accumulate minimal disability over their lives, whereas others experience a rapidly disabling disease course. This latter subset of patients, whose MS is marked by the rampant progression of disability over a short time period, is often referred to as having 'aggressive' MS. Treatment of patients with aggressive MS is challenging, and optimal strategies have yet to be defined. It is important to identify patients who are at risk of aggressive MS as early as possible and implement an effective treatment strategy. Early intervention might protect patients from irreversible damage and disability, and prevent the development of a secondary progressive course, which thus far lacks effective therapy.

Regional CNS responses to IFN-gamma determine lesion localization patterns during EAE pathogenesis

The localization of inflammatory foci within the cerebellum is correlated to severe clinical outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS). Previous studies of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a model of MS, revealed distinct clinical outcomes correlated with the capacity of the animal to produce IFN-gamma. Outcomes were linked to localization of inflammatory cells in either the spinal cord (wild type [WT]) or the cerebellum and brain stem (IFN-gamma deficient). We demonstrate, using an adoptive transfer system, that the ability of the central nervous system (CNS) to sense pathogenic T cell-produced IFN-gamma during EAE initiation determines the sites of CNS pathogenesis. Transfer of WT Th1 cells into IFN-gamma receptor-deficient mice results in pathogenic invasion of the brain stem and cerebellum with attendant clinical symptoms, which are identical to the disease observed after transfer of IFN-gamma-deficient T cells to WT hosts. Inflammation of the spinal cord associated with classical EAE is abrogated in both IFN-gamma-deficient systems. Cotransfer of CNS antigen-specific WT Th1 cells with IFN-gamma-deficient T cells is sufficient to restore spinal cord invasion and block cerebellar and brain stem invasion. These data demonstrate that interaction between IFN-gamma and host CNS cells during the initiation of EAE can selectively promote or suppress neuroinflammation and pathogenesis.

Phenotype and prognosis in African-Americans with multiple sclerosis: a retrospective chart review

CONTEXT

There is an emerging body of literature regarding multiple sclerosis (MS) in African-Americans (AA) that suggests more rapid progression and a worse prognosis in this group. A phenotype of opticospinal MS has been proposed by some publications.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether AA with MS have a different clinical phenotype, different distribution of clinical subtypes, and/or different levels of disability than Caucasians (CA) with MS. Specifically, is the disability attributable to severe cerebellar disease, which limits ambulation and function?

DESIGN

Retrospective chart analyses of a patient cohort from an academic MS center.

PATIENTS

A total of 86 AA were identified with MS, 79 were followed for > or = 5 years. The control group consisted of 80 randomly-selected CA with MS and similar follow-up.

OUTCOME MEASURES

EDSS at diagnosis, five-year follow-up, and last follow-up; time to walking assistance device; disease subtype; involved functional systems.

RESULTS

AA MS patients displayed more cerebellar dysfunction, and worse EDSS scores at diagnosis, at four to six years follow-up from diagnosis, and at last follow-up compared to the CA MS patients with similar length of follow-up. AA MS patients had earlier and more frequent gait difficulty requiring use of a cane or wheelchair. AA MS patients had a higher prevalence of primary progressive (PP) MS (22 versus 9%) and a lower rate of relapsing-remitting (RR) MS (30 versus 52%) compared to CA.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to CA patients, MS in AA is characterized by a higher incidence of cerebellar dysfunction and a more rapid accumulation of disabilities. In this cohort, AA patients had a relatively higher rate of the PPMS subtype. These data suggest the presence of fundamental differences in the clinical phenotype and the natural history of MS in AA.

Prognostic Factors in Multiple Sclerosis

Prognostic factors to determine the patient's likelihood of developing MS are important for several reasons. Prognostic factors are important to the patient who wants to be informed about his/her prospects, to the clinician who needs to individuate the patients who deserve immune treatments, and to the researcher who needs to improve the design and the analysis of the therapeutic trials. In addition, with the development of new immune therapies, whose early use is strongly encouraged, it is crucial to dispose of reliable clinical predictors to identify the patients who are candidates for early or aggressive therapies. Several studies have indicated that a poor prognosis is related to male gender; a late age at onset; motor, cerebellar, and sphincter involvement at onset; a progressive course at onset; a short inter-attack interval; a high number of early attacks; and a relevant early residual disability. Paraclinical support for MS prognosis is given by imaging techniques, cerebrospinal fluid analysis, and evoked potential examinations. The most sensitive paraclinical test to predict conversion from suspected demyelinating disease to definite MS is MRI.

Prognosis of multiple sclerosis: clinical factors predicting the late evolution for an early treatment decision

With the development of new immunomodulating therapies, with which early use is strongly encouraged, it is crucial to be in possession of reliable clinical predictors of multiple sclerosis evolution. Prognostic factors are important to patients wanting to be informed about their prospects; to the clinician needing to individualize patients requiring immune treatments at an early stage of the disease; and also to the researcher needing to to improve the design and analysis of the clinical therapeutic trials and observational studies. Frequentist analyses have indicated a poor prognosis for male gender, late age at onset, motor, cerebellar and sphincter involvement at onset, progressive course at onset, short inter-attack interval, high number of early attacks; and a relevant early residual disability. A recent application of a Bayesian analysis led to the construction of more detailed models of the natural history of multiple sclerosis and the estimated risk of unfavorable evolution at an individual patient level.

Benign course in multiple sclerosis: a review

Since the 1950s, it has been recognized that a subgroup of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients exists that shows little or no progression in the severity of the disease over time. This group is referred to as 'benign' MS. Although a substantial amount of research in MS indicates a multifactorial background in disease severity, to date it is still difficult to predict whether the course will be benign at onset and it is difficult to find factors that influence the course of the disease over time. Maintaining or restoring neural conduction inside a central nervous system lesion seems to be the essence of staying 'benign'.

Disability and Mortality in a Cohort of Multiple Sclerosis Patients: A Reappraisal

The aim of the study was to evaluate how the natural history of multiple sclerosis (MS) had changed over a 15-year period. We compared disability and mortality in a cohort of 83 MS patients hospitalised in the Neurological Institute of Pavia, northern Italy, from January 1, 1990, to December 31, 1991, with a similar cohort of 52 patients analysed in the past. After the follow-up, an unfavourable course (death or relevant disability) was observed in 41% of the patients in the new cohort, compared to 63.5% of the patients in the old one. The percentage of deceased patients was reduced from 25 to 6%. The analysis of the pooled data of the two cohorts indicates a recent tendency of firstly hospitalised patients having a shorter disease duration and a lower disability level, which could explain the relevant decrease both in mortality and disability. Finally, our findings confirmed that age at onset, early disability and a short interval between onset and secondary progression increase the risk of an unfavourable course.

Predicting secondary progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a Bayesian analysis

With the aid of a Bayesian statistical model of the natural course of relapsing remitting Multiple Sclerosis (MS), we identify short-term clinical predictors of long-term evolution of the disease, with particular focus on predicting onset of secondary progressive course (failure event) on the basis of patient information available at an early stage of disease. The model specifies the full joint probability distribution for a set of variables including early indicator variables (observed during the early stage of disease), intermediate indicator variables (observed throughout the course of disease, prefailure) and the time to failure. Our model treats the intermediate indicators as a surrogate response event, so that in right-censored patients, these indicators provide supplementary information pointing towards the unobserved failure times. Moreover, the full probability modelling approach allows the considerable uncertainty which affects certain early indicators, such as the early relapse rates, to be incorporated in the analysis. With such a model, the ability of early indicators to predict failure can be assessed more accurately and reliably, and explained in terms of the relationship between early and intermediate indicators. Moreover, a model with the aforementioned features allows us to characterize the pattern of disease course in high-risk patients, and to identify short-term manifestations which are strongly related to long-term evolution of disease, as potential surrogate responses in clinical trials. Our analysis is based on longitudinal data from 186 MS patients with a relapsing-remitting initial course. The following important early predictors of the time to progression emerged: age; number of neurological functional systems (FSs) involved; sphincter, or motor, or motor-sensory symptoms; presence of sequelae after onset. During the first 3 years of follow up, to reach EDSS> or =4 outside relapse, to have sphincter or motor relapses and to reach moderate pyramidal involvement were also found to be unfavourable prognostic factors.

Prognostic criteria in an epidemiological group of patients with multiple sclerosis: an exploratory study

Demographic and clinical features and data on medical history and prior environmental exposure collected during an epidemiological long-term study of multiple sclerosis (MS) were tested for their possible prognostic value. Fifty-two benign MS patients were compared with 29 patients having a malignant course. A primary or secondary progressive course and cerebellar/lower brain-stem symptoms at onset indicated an unfavourable course, whereas no predictive value of sex or of any other type of onset symptomatology was found. Age at onset per se had no influence on prognosis but was associated with more rapid progression only by its relationship with a chronic progressive type of course. Prior illness, surgery, trauma and childhood exposure to defined environmental factors could not be identified as relevant for prognosis.