Disease-modifying therapies in managing disability worsening in paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis: a longitudinal analysis of global and national registries

BACKGROUND

High-efficacy disease-modifying therapies have been proven to slow disability accrual in adults with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. However, their impact on disability worsening in paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis, particularly during the early phases, is not well understood. We evaluated how high-efficacy therapies influence transitions across five disability states, ranging from minimal disability to gait impairment and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, in people with paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

Longitudinal data were obtained from the international MSBase registry, containing data from people with multiple sclerosis from 151 centres across 41 countries, and the Italian Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders Register, containing data from people with multiple sclerosis from 178 Italian multiple sclerosis centres. People younger than 18 years at the onset of multiple sclerosis symptoms were included, provided they had a confirmed diagnosis of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and at least four Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores recorded within 12-month intervals. The primary outcome was the time to change in disability state: minimal disability (EDSS scores 0, 1·0, and 1·5), mild disability (EDSS scores 2·0 and 2·5), moderate disability (EDSS scores 3·0 and 3·5), gait impairment (EDSS scores ≥4·0), and clinician diagnosed secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. A multi-state model was constructed to simulate the natural course of multiple sclerosis, modelling the probabilities of both disability worsening and improvement simultaneously. The impact of high-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (alemtuzumab, cladribine, daclizumab, fingolimod, mitoxantrone, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, rituximab, or autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation) and low-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (dimethyl fumarate, glatiramer acetate, interferon beta, or teriflunomide), compared with no treatment, on the course of disability was assessed. Apart from recruitment, individuals with lived experience of multiple sclerosis were not involved in the design and conduct of this study.

FINDINGS

A total of 5224 people (3686 [70·6%] female and 1538 [29·4%] male) with mean age at onset of multiple sclerosis 15·24 years (SD 2·52) were included. High-efficacy therapies reduced the hazard of disability worsening across the disability states. The largest reduction (hazard ratio 0·41 [95% CI 0·31-0·53]) was observed in participants who were treated with high-efficacy therapies while in the minimal disability state, compared with those remained untreated. The benefit of high-efficacy therapies declined with increasing disability. Young people with minimal disability who received low-efficacy therapy also experienced a reduced hazard (hazard ratio 0·65 [95% CI 0·54-0·77]) of transitioning to mild disability, in contrast to those who remained untreated.

INTERPRETATION

Treatment of paediatric-onset relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with high-efficacy therapy substantially reduces the risk of reaching key disability milestones. This reduction in risk is most pronounced among young people with minimal or mild disability when treatment began. Children with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis should be treated early with high-efficacy therapy, before developing significant neurological impairments, to better preserve their neurological capacity.

FUNDING

National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia; MSBase Foundation Fellowship; MS Australia Postdoctoral Fellowship.

Serum biomarker levels predict disability progression in patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

We aimed to investigate the potential of serum biomarker levels to predict disability progression in a multicentric real-world cohort of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS).

METHODS

A total of 141 patients with PPMS from 18 European MS centres were included. Disability progression was investigated using change in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score over three time intervals: baseline to 2 years, 6 years and to the last follow-up. Serum levels of neurofilament light chain (sNfL), glial fibrillar acidic protein (sGFAP) and chitinase 3-like 1 (sCHI3L1) were measured using single-molecule array assays at baseline. Correlations between biomarker levels, and between biomarkers and age were quantified using Spearman's r. Univariable and multivariable linear models were performed to assess associations between biomarker levels and EDSS change over the different time periods.

RESULTS

Median (IQR) age of patients was 52.9 (46.4-58.5) years, and 58 (41.1%) were men. Median follow-up time was 9.1 (7.0-12.6) years. Only 8 (5.7%) patients received treatment during follow-up. sNfL and sGFAP levels were moderately correlated (r=0.43) and both weakly correlated with sCHI3L1 levels (r=0.19 and r=0.17, respectively). In multivariable analyses, levels of the three biomarkers were associated with EDSS changes across all time periods. However, when analysis was restricted to non-inflammatory patients according to clinical and radiological parameters (n=64), only sCHI3L1 levels remained associated with future EDSS change.

CONCLUSIONS

Levels of sNfL, sGFAP and sCHI3L1 are prognostic biomarkers associated with disability progression in patients with PPMS, being CHI3L1 findings less dependent on the inflammatory component associated with disease progression.

Comparative Effectiveness of Natalizumab, Fingolimod, and Injectable Therapies in Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis: A Registry-Based Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Patients with pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) typically experience higher levels of inflammation with more frequent relapses, and though patients with POMS usually recover from relapses better than adults, patients with POMS reach irreversible disability at a younger age than adult-onset patients. There have been few randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in patients with POMS, and most available data are based on observational studies of off-label use of DMTs approved for adults. We assessed the effectiveness of natalizumab compared with fingolimod using injectable platform therapies as a reference in pediatric patients in the global MSBase registry.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients with POMS who initiated treatment with an injectable DMT, natalizumab, or fingolimod between January 1, 2006, and May 3, 2021. Patients were matched using inverse probability treatment weighting. The primary outcome was time to first relapse from index therapy initiation. Secondary study outcomes included annualized relapse rate; proportions of relapse-free patients at 1, 2, and 5 years; time to treatment discontinuation; and times to 24-week confirmed disability worsening and confirmed disability improvement.

RESULTS

A total of 1,218 patients with POMS were included in this analysis. Patients treated with fingolimod had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated with injectable DMTs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.83; p = 0.008). After adjustment for prior DMT experience in the unmatched sample, patients treated with natalizumab had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated either with injectable DMTs (HR, 0.15; 95% CI 0.07-0.31; p < 0.001) or fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI 0.14-1.00; p = 0.049). The adjusted secondary study outcomes were generally consistent with the primary outcome or with previous observations. The findings in the inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted patient populations were confirmed in multiple sensitivity analyses.

DISCUSSION

Our analyses of relapse risk suggest that natalizumab is more effective than fingolimod in the control of relapses in this population with high rates of new inflammatory activity, consistent with previous studies of natalizumab and fingolimod in adult-onset patients and POMS. In addition, both fingolimod and natalizumab were more effective than first-line injectable therapies.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class II evidence that patients with POMS treated with natalizumab had a lower risk of relapse than those with fingolimod.

Assessing illness-related uncertainty in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: A psychometric analysis of the Mishel Uncertainty of Illness Scale

A multicenter study involving 204 adults with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) assessed the dimensionality and item characteristics of the Mishel-Uncertainty of Illness Scale (MUIS), a generic self-assessment tool. Mokken analysis identified two dimensions in the MUIS with an appropriate item and overall scale scalability after excluding nonclassifiable items. A refined 12-item MUIS, employing a grade response model, effectively discriminated uncertainty levels among RRMS patients (likelihood ratio test p-value = .03). These findings suggest the potential value of the 12-item MUIS as a reliable measure for assessing uncertainty associated with the course of illness in RRMS.

No evidence for association between rs10191329 severity locus and longitudinal disease severity in 1813 relapse-onset multiple sclerosis patients from the MSBase registry

BACKGROUND

The International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium and MultipleMS Consortium recently reported a genetic variant associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) severity. However, it remains unclear if these variants remain associated with more robust, longitudinal measures of disease severity.

METHODS

We examined the top variant, rs10191329, from Harroud et al.'s study in 1813 relapse-onset MS patients from the MSBase Registry to assess association with longitudinal disease severity.

RESULTS

Our analysis revealed no significant association between rs10191329 genotype and longitudinal binary disease severity (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight the complexity of genetic factors mediating long-term MS outcomes and the need for further research.

Consensus statement of the Spanish Society of Neurology on the treatment of multiple sclerosis and holistic patient management in 2023

The last consensus statement of the Spanish Society of Neurology's Demyelinating Diseases Study Group on the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS) was issued in 2016. Although many of the positions taken remain valid, there have been significant changes in the management and treatment of MS, both due to the approval of new drugs with different action mechanisms and due to the evolution of previously fixed concepts. This has enabled new approaches to specific situations such as pregnancy and vaccination, and the inclusion of new variables in clinical decision-making, such as the early use of high-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (DMT), consideration of the patient's perspective, and the use of such novel technologies as remote monitoring. In the light of these changes, this updated consensus statement, developed according to the Delphi method, seeks to reflect the new paradigm in the management of patients with MS, based on the available scientific evidence and the clinical expertise of the participants. The most significant recommendations are that immunomodulatory DMT be started in patients with radiologically isolated syndrome with persistent radiological activity, that patient perspectives be considered, and that the term "lines of therapy" no longer be used in the classification of DMTs (> 90% consensus). Following diagnosis of MS, the first DMT should be selected according to the presence/absence of factors of poor prognosis (whether epidemiological, clinical, radiological, or biomarkers) for the occurrence of new relapses or progression of disability; high-efficacy DMTs may be considered from disease onset.

Long-term clinical outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis who are initiating disease-modifying therapy with natalizumab compared with BRACETD first-line therapies

Background

Aggressive disease control soon after multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis may prevent irreversible neurological damage, and therefore early initiation of a high-efficacy disease-modifying therapy (DMT) is of clinical relevance.

Objectives

Evaluate long-term clinical outcomes in patients with MS who initiated treatment with either natalizumab or a BRACETD therapy (interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, teriflunomide, or dimethyl fumarate).

Design

This retrospective analysis utilized data from MSBase to create a matched population allowing comparison of first-line natalizumab to first-line BRACETD.

Methods

This study included patients who initiated treatment either with natalizumab or a BRACETD DMT within 1 year of MS diagnosis and continued treatment for ⩾6 months, after which patients could switch DMTs or discontinue treatment. Patients had a minimum follow-up time of ⩾60 months from initiation. A subgroup analysis compared the natalizumab group to patients in the BRACETD group who escalated therapy after 6 months. Outcomes included unadjusted annualized relapse rates (ARRs), time-to-first relapse, time-to-first confirmed disability improvement (CDI), and time-to-first confirmed disability worsening (CDW).

Results

After 1:1 propensity score matching, 355 BRACETD patients were matched to 355 natalizumab patients. Patients initiating natalizumab were less likely to experience a relapse over the duration of follow-up, with ARRs [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.080 (0.070-0.092) for natalizumab patients and 0.191 (0.178-0.205) for BRACETD patients (p < 0.0001). A Cox regression model of time-to-first relapse showed a reduced risk of relapse for natalizumab patients [hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.52 (0.42-0.65); p < 0.001] and a more favorable time-to-first CDI. The risk of CDW was similar between groups. The subgroup analysis showed an increased relapse risk as well as a significantly higher risk of CDW for BRACETD patients.

Conclusion

Early initiation of natalizumab produced long-term benefits in relapse outcomes in comparison with BRACETD, regardless of a subsequent escalation in therapy.

Emulating randomised clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with non-randomised real-world evidence: an application using data from the MSBase Registry

BACKGROUND

To mimic as closely as possible a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and calibrate the real-world evidence (RWE) studies against a known treatment effect would be helpful to understand if RWE can support causal conclusions in selected circumstances. The aim was to emulate the TRANSFORMS trial comparing Fingolimod (FTY) versus intramuscular interferon β-1a (IFN) using observational data.

METHODS

We extracted from the MSBase registry all the patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) collected in the period 2011-2021 who received IFN or FTY (0.5 mg) and with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria of the TRANSFORMS RCT. The primary endpoint was the annualised relapse rate (ARR) over 12 months. Patients were 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matched. Relapse-rate ratio (RR) was calculated by mean of a negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

A total of 4376 patients with RRMS (1140 in IFN and 3236 in FTY) were selected. After PS, 856 patients in each group were matched. The ARR was 0.45 in IFN and 0.25 in FTY with a significant difference between the two groups (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.68; p<0.001). The result of the emulation was very similar and fell within the 95% CI of that observed in the RCT (RR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.64; p<0.001) with a standardised difference of 0.66 (p=0.51).

CONCLUSIONS

By applying the same inclusion and exclusion criteria used in the RCT and employing appropriate methodology, we successfully replicated the RCT results with only minor discrepancies. Also, even if the confounding bias cannot be fully eliminated, conducting a rigorous target trial emulation could still yield valuable insights for comparative effectiveness research.

Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the United Kingdom

AIM

To evaluate the real-world comparative effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness, from a UK National Health Service perspective, of natalizumab versus fingolimod in patients with rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RES-RRMS).

METHODS

Real-world data from the MSBase Registry were obtained for patients with RES-RRMS who were previously either naive to disease-modifying therapies or had been treated with interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide (collectively known as BRACETD). Matched cohorts were selected by 3-way multinomial propensity score matching, and the annualized relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M) were compared between treatment groups. Comparative effectiveness results were used in a cost-effectiveness model comparing natalizumab and fingolimod, using an established Markov structure over a lifetime horizon with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Additional model data sources included the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available sources.

RESULTS

In the comparative effectiveness analysis, we found a significantly lower ARR for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (rate ratio [RR] = 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.73) or BRACETD (RR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.42-0.53). Similarly, CDI6M was higher for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.55) and BRACETD (HR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.16-1.85). In patients starting fingolimod, we found a lower ARR (RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.65-0.80) compared with starting BRACETD, but no difference in CDI6M (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.91-1.50). Differences in CDW6M were not found between the treatment groups. In the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, natalizumab dominated fingolimod (0.302 higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and £17,141 lower predicted lifetime costs). Similar cost-effectiveness results were observed across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This MSBase Registry analysis suggests that natalizumab improves clinical outcomes when compared with fingolimod, which translates to higher QALYs and lower costs in UK patients with RES-RRMS.

Examining the environmental risk factors of progressive-onset and relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis: recruitment challenges, potential bias, and statistical strategies

It is unknown whether the currently known risk factors of multiple sclerosis reflect the etiology of progressive-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) as observational studies rarely included analysis by type of onset. We designed a case-control study to examine associations between environmental factors and POMS and compared effect sizes to relapse-onset MS (ROMS), which will offer insights into the etiology of POMS and potentially contribute to prevention and intervention practice. This study utilizes data from the Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (PPMS) Study and the Australian Multi-center Study of Environment and Immune Function (the AusImmune Study). This report outlines the conduct of the PPMS Study, whether the POMS sample is representative, and the planned analysis methods. The study includes 155 POMS, 204 ROMS, and 558 controls. The distributions of the POMS were largely similar to Australian POMS patients in the MSBase Study, with 54.8% female, 85.8% POMS born before 1970, mean age of onset of 41.44 ± 8.38 years old, and 67.1% living between 28.9 and 39.4° S. The POMS were representative of the Australian POMS population. There are some differences between POMS and ROMS/controls (mean age at interview: POMS 55 years vs. controls 40 years; sex: POMS 53% female vs. controls 78% female; location of residence: 14.3% of POMS at a latitude ≤ 28.9°S vs. 32.8% in controls), which will be taken into account in the analysis. We discuss the methodological issues considered in the study design, including prevalence-incidence bias, cohort effects, interview bias and recall bias, and present strategies to account for it. Associations between exposures of interest and POMS/ROMS will be presented in subsequent publications.

Predictors of treatment switching in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network

Background

Treatment switching is a common challenge and opportunity in real-world clinical practice. Increasing diversity in disease-modifying treatments (DMTs) has generated interest in the identification of reliable and robust predictors of treatment switching across different countries, DMTs, and time periods.

Objective

The objective of this retrospective, observational study was to identify independent predictors of treatment switching in a population of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients in the Big Multiple Sclerosis Data Network of national clinical registries, including the Italian MS registry, the OFSEP of France, the Danish MS registry, the Swedish national MS registry, and the international MSBase Registry.

Methods

In this cohort study, we merged information on 269,822 treatment episodes in 110,326 patients from 1997 to 2018 from five clinical registries. Patients were included in the final pooled analysis set if they had initiated at least one DMT during the relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) stage. Patients not diagnosed with RRMS or RRMS patients not initiating DMT therapy during the RRMS phase were excluded from the analysis. The primary study outcome was treatment switching. A multilevel mixed-effects shared frailty time-to-event model was used to identify independent predictors of treatment switching. The contributing MS registry was included in the pooled analysis as a random effect.

Results

Every one-point increase in the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score at treatment start was associated with 1.08 times the rate of subsequent switching, adjusting for age, sex, and calendar year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.08; 95% CI 1.07-1.08). Women were associated with 1.11 times the rate of switching relative to men (95% CI 1.08-1.14), whilst older age was also associated with an increased rate of treatment switching. DMTs started between 2007 and 2012 were associated with 2.48 times the rate of switching relative to DMTs that began between 1996 and 2006 (aHR 2.48; 95% CI 2.48-2.56). DMTs started from 2013 onwards were more likely to switch relative to the earlier treatment epoch (aHR 8.09; 95% CI 7.79-8.41; reference = 1996-2006).

Conclusion

Switching between DMTs is associated with female sex, age, and disability at baseline and has increased in frequency considerably in recent years as more treatment options have become available. Consideration of a patient's individual risk and tolerance profile needs to be taken into account when selecting the most appropriate switch therapy from an expanding array of treatment choices.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years.

METHODS

Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement.

RESULTS

23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability.

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

Risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis after early worsening of disability

BACKGROUND

Whether progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) heralds earlier onset of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and more rapid accumulation of disability during SPMS remains to be determined. We investigated the association between early PIRA, relapse-associated worsening (RAW) of disability and time to SPMS, subsequent disability progression and their response to therapy.

METHODS

This observational cohort study included patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) from the MSBase international registry across 146 centres and 39 countries. Associations between the number of PIRA and RAW during early multiple sclerosis (MS) (the initial 5 years of MS onset) were analysed with respect to: time to SPMS using Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for disease characteristics; and disability progression during SPMS, calculated as the change of Multiple Sclerosis Severity Scores over time, using multivariable linear regression.

RESULTS

10 692 patients met the inclusion criteria: 3125 (29%) were men and the mean MS onset age was 32.2 years. A higher number of early PIRA (HR=1.50, 95% CI 1.28 to 1.76, p<0.001) and RAW (HR=2.53, 95% CI 2.25 to 2.85, p<0.001) signalled a higher risk of SPMS. A higher proportion of early disease-modifying therapy exposure (per 10%) reduced the effect of early RAW (HR=0.94, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.00, p=0.041) but not PIRA (HR=0.97, 95% CI 0.91 to 1.05, p=0.49) on SPMS risk. No association between early PIRA/RAW and disability progression during SPMS was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Early disability increase during RRMS is associated with a greater risk of SPMS but not the rate of disability progression during SPMS. The deterioration associated with early relapses represents a potentially treatable risk factor of SPMS.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12605000455662).

The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS.

METHODS

We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS.

RESULTS

Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

[15th Post-ECTRIMS Meeting: a review of the latest developments presented at the 2022 ECTRIMS Congress (Part II)]

INTRODUCTION

On 4 and 5 November 2022, Madrid hosted the 15th edition of the Post-ECTRIMS Meeting, where neurologists specialised in multiple sclerosis outlined the latest developments presented at the 2022 ECTRIMS Congress, held in Amsterdam from 26 to 28 October.

AIM

To synthesise the content presented at the 15th edition of the Post-ECTRIMS Meeting, in an article broken down into two parts.

DEVELOPMENT

This second part describes the new developments in terms of therapeutic strategies for escalation and de-escalation of disease-modifying therapies (DMT), when and in whom to initiate or switch to highly effective DMT, the definition of therapeutic failure, the possibility of treating radiologically isolated syndrome and the future of personalised treatment and precision medicine. It also considers the efficacy and safety of autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation, different approaches in clinical trial design and outcome measures to assess DMT in progressive stages, challenges in the diagnosis and treatment of cognitive impairment, and treatment in special situations (pregnancy, comorbidity and the elderly). In addition, results from some of the latest studies with oral cladribine and evobrutinib presented at ECTRIMS 2022 are shown.

[15th Post-ECTRIMS Meeting: a review of the latest developments presented at the 2022 ECTRIMS Congress (Part I)]

INTRODUCTION

On 4 and 5 November 2022, Madrid hosted the 15th edition of the Post-ECTRIMS Meeting, where neurologists specialised in multiple sclerosis (MS) outlined the most relevant novelties presented at the 2022 ECTRIMS Congress, held in Amsterdam from 26 to 28 October.

AIM

To synthesise the content presented at the 15th edition of the Post-ECTRIMS Meeting, in an article broken down into two parts.

DEVELOPMENT

In this first part, the initial events involved in the onset of MS, the role played by lymphocytes and the migration of immune system cells into the central nervous system are presented. It describes emerging biomarkers in body fluids and imaging findings that are predictive of disease progression and useful in the differential diagnosis of MS. It also discusses advances in imaging techniques which, together with a better understanding of the agents involved in demyelination and remyelination processes, provide a basis for dealing with remyelination in the clinical setting. Finally, the mechanisms triggering the inflammatory reaction and neurodegeneration involved in MS pathology are reviewed.

Comparison Between Dimethyl Fumarate, Fingolimod, and Ocrelizumab After Natalizumab Cessation

Importance

Natalizumab cessation is associated with a risk of rebound disease activity. It is important to identify the optimal switch disease-modifying therapy strategy after natalizumab to limit the risk of severe relapses.

Objectives

To compare the effectiveness and persistence of dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, and ocrelizumab among patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who discontinued natalizumab.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this observational cohort study, patient data were collected from the MSBase registry between June 15, 2010, and July 6, 2021. The median follow-up was 2.7 years. This was a multicenter study that included patients with RRMS who had used natalizumab for 6 months or longer and then were switched to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab within 3 months after natalizumab discontinuation. Patients without baseline data were excluded from the analysis. Data were analyzed from May 24, 2022, to January 9, 2023.

Exposures

Dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, and ocrelizumab.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcomes were annualized relapse rate (ARR) and time to first relapse. Secondary outcomes were confirmed disability accumulation, disability improvement, and subsequent treatment discontinuation, with the comparisons for the first 2 limited to fingolimod and ocrelizumab due to the small number of patients taking dimethyl fumarate. The associations were analyzed after balancing covariates using an inverse probability of treatment weighting method.

Results

Among 66 840 patients with RRMS, 1744 had used natalizumab for 6 months or longer and were switched to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab within 3 months of natalizumab discontinuation. After excluding 358 patients without baseline data, a total of 1386 patients (mean [SD] age, 41.3 [10.6] years; 990 female [71%]) switched to dimethyl fumarate (138 [9.9%]), fingolimod (823 [59.4%]), or ocrelizumab (425 [30.7%]) after natalizumab. The ARR for each medication was as follows: ocrelizumab, 0.06 (95% CI, 0.04-0.08); fingolimod, 0.26 (95% CI, 0.12-0.48); and dimethyl fumarate, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.12-0.56). The ARR ratio of fingolimod to ocrelizumab was 4.33 (95% CI, 3.12-6.01) and of dimethyl fumarate to ocrelizumab was 4.50 (95% CI, 2.89-7.03). Compared with ocrelizumab, the hazard ratio (HR) of time to first relapse was 4.02 (95% CI, 2.83-5.70) for fingolimod and 3.70 (95% CI, 2.35-5.84) for dimethyl fumarate. The HR of treatment discontinuation was 2.57 (95% CI, 1.74-3.80) for fingolimod and 4.26 (95% CI, 2.65-6.84) for dimethyl fumarate. Fingolimod use was associated with a 49% higher risk for disability accumulation compared with ocrelizumab. There was no significant difference in disability improvement rates between fingolimod and ocrelizumab.

Conclusion and Relevance

Study results show that among patients with RRMS who switched from natalizumab to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab, ocrelizumab use was associated with the lowest ARR and discontinuation rates, and the longest time to first relapse.

Assessment of the treating physicians' first-hand experience with handling and satisfaction of ofatumumab therapy: findings from the PERITIA survey conducted in Europe

BACKGROUND

Real-world evidence on experience and satisfaction of ofatumumab as a treatment option for relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) is limited.

OBJECTIVE

To present cumulative responses from a questionnaire related to first-hand experience of treating physicians on handling and convenience of ofatumumab therapy along with concerns related to COVID-19.

METHODS

PERITIA was a multicentre survey conducted to collect responses from the ASCLEPIOS I/II trial investigators from Europe via an online questionnaire.

RESULTS

Forty-six physicians (Germany, n = 14; Spain, n = 12; Portugal, n = 10; Italy, n = 10) completed the survey. Overall, 43% of the physicians considered the benefit-risk ratio of ofatumumab as very good. Over 93% were in favour of ofatumumab self-administration at home and the majority (83%) believed it to be completely true that self-administration of ofatumumab eases the burden for patients in terms of time. All investigators would like to potentially use anti-CD20 therapy as a long-term strategy. Even during the COVID-19 pandemic, physicians were in favour of a self-administration of MS therapy at home over other anti-CD20 therapy infusions.

CONCLUSION

European neurologists who were part of this survey considered the benefit-risk-ratio of ofatumumab as favourable and the monthly self-administered subcutaneous injections offering convenience for patients in the clinical practice.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS).

METHODS

We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity.

CONCLUSIONS

DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Association of Serum Neurofilament Light Chain Levels at Disease Onset With Disability Worsening in Patients With a First Demyelinating Multiple Sclerosis Event Not Treated With High-Efficacy Drugs

Importance

The value of serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) levels for predicting long-term disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) remains controversial.

Objective

To assess whether high sNfL values are associated with disability worsening in patients who underwent their first demyelinating MS event.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This multicenter cohort study included patients who underwent their first demyelinating event suggestive of MS at Hospital Universitario Ramón y Cajal (development cohort; June 1, 1994, to September 31, 2021, with follow-up until August 31, 2022) and 8 Spanish hospitals (validation cohort; October 1, 1995, to August 4, 2020, with follow-up until August 16, 2022).

Exposures

Clinical evaluations at least every 6 months.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were 6-month confirmed disability worsening (CDW) and an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score of 3. Levels of sNfL were measured in blood samples obtained within 12 months after disease onset using a single molecule array kit. The cutoffs used were sNfL level of 10 pg/mL and a standardized score (z score) of 1.5. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to evaluate outcomes.

Results

Of the 578 patients included in the study, 327 were in the development cohort (median age at sNfL analysis, 34.1 years [IQR, 27.2-42.7 years]; 226 female [69.1%]) and 251 patients were in the validation cohort (median age at sNfL analysis, 33.3 years [IQR, 27.4-41.5 years]; 184 female [73.3%]). The median follow-up was 7.10 years (IQR, 4.18-10.0 years). Levels of sNfL greater than 10 pg/mL were independently associated with higher risk of 6-month CDW and an EDSS of 3 in the development cohort (6-month CDW: hazard ratio [HR], 2.39; 95% CI, 1.39-4.12; P = .002; EDSS of 3: HR, 4.12; 95% CI, 2.18-7.77; P < .001) and the validation cohort (6-month CDW: HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.07-2.42; P = .02; EDSS of 3: HR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.23-3.33; P = .005). Highly effective disease-modifying treatments were associated with lower risks of 6-month CDW and an EDSS of 3 in patients with high baseline sNfL values.

Conclusions and Relevance

This cohort study found that high sNfL values obtained within the first year of disease were associated with long-term disability worsening in MS, suggesting that sNfL level measurement may help identify optimal candidates for highly effective disease-modifying treatments.

Results of treatment with alemtuzumab in a Spanish cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis in the real world: The RealMS study

Background

Alemtuzumab (ALZ) is a humanized monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) administered in two annual courses. The objective of this study was to describe the effectiveness and safety data of ALZ and to report the health resource utilization in patients receiving this treatment.

Methods

In this retrospective, non-interventional study, information was retrieved from patients' medical charts at one center in Spain. Included patients were ≥18 years old, and ALZ treatment was initiated between 1 March 2015 and 31 March 2019, according to routine clinical practice and local labeling.

Results

Of 123 patients, 78% were women. The mean (standard deviation, SD) age of patients at diagnosis was 40.3 (9.1) years, and the mean time since diagnosis was 13.8 (7.3) years. Patients were previously treated with a median (interquartile range; IQR) number of two (2.0-3.0) disease-modifying treatments (DMTs). Patients were treated with ALZ for a mean (SD) of 29.7 (13.8) months. ALZ reduced the annualized relapse rate (ARR) (1.5 before vs. 0.05 after; p < 0.001) and improved the median EDSS (4.63 before vs. 4.00 after; p < 0.001). Most (90.2%) patients were relapse-free while receiving ALZ. The mean number of gadolinium-enhancing [Gd+] T1 lesions was reduced (1.7 before vs. 0.1 after; p < 0.001), and the mean number of T2 hyperintense lesions was maintained (35.7 before vs. 35.4 after; p = 0.392). A total of 27 (21.9%) patients reported 29 autoimmune diseases: hyperthyroidism (12), hypothyroidism (11), idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP) (3), alopecia areata (1), chronic urticaria (1), and vitiligo (1). The mean number of health resources (outpatient visits, emergency room visits, hospital admissions, and tests performed in the hospital) used while patients were treated with ALZ progressively decreased from year 1 to year 4, except for a slight increase at year 2 of outpatient visits.

Conclusion

The ReaLMS study provides real-world evidence that ALZ can promote clinical and magnetic resonance imaging disease remission, as well as disability improvement in patients with MS, despite several prior DMT failures. The ALZ safety profile was consistent with data available from clinical trials and other real-world studies. Healthcare resource use was reduced throughout the treatment period.

Multifaceted Analysis of Cerebrospinal Fluid and Serum from Progressive Multiple Sclerosis Patients: Potential Role of Vitamin C and Metal Ion Imbalance in the Divergence of Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis and Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

The progressive forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) primary progressive MS (PPMS) and secondary progressive MS (SPMS) are clinically distinguished by the rate at which symptoms worsen. Little is however known about the pathological mechanisms underlying the differential rate of accumulation of pathological changes. In this study, ¹H NMR spectroscopy was used to measure low-molecular-weight metabolites in paired cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and serum of PPMS, SPMS, and control patients, as well as to determine lipoproteins and glycoproteins in serum samples. Additionally, neurodegenerative and inflammatory markers, neurofilament light (NFL) and chitinase-3-like protein 1 (CHI3L1), and the concentration of seven metal elements, Mg, Mn, Cu, Fe, Pb, Zn, and Ca, were also determined in both CSF and serum. The results indicate that the pathological changes associated with progressive MS are mainly localized in the central nervous system (CNS). More so, PPMS and SPMS patients with comparable disability status are pathologically similar in relation to neurodegeneration, neuroinflammation, and some metabolites that distinguish them from controls. However, the rapid progression of PPMS from the onset may be driven by a combination of neurotoxicity induced by heavy metals coupled with diminished CNS antioxidative capacity associated with differential intrathecal ascorbate retention and imbalance of Mg and Cu.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison

BACKGROUND

In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models.

OBJECTIVE

To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models.

METHODS

Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement.

RESULTS

4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods.

CONCLUSIONS

The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS.

METHODS

We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up.

RESULTS

People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories in patients with secondary progressive MS: a latent class analysis from Big MS Data network

BACKGROUND

Over the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time.

METHODS

All patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3-4.

RESULTS

A total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.

Prediction of relapse activity when switching to cladribine for multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis commonly switch between disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Identifying predictors of relapse when switching could improve outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

To determine predictors of relapse hazard when switching to cladribine.

METHODS

Data of patients who switched to cladribine, grouped by prior disease-modifying therapy (pDMT; interferon-β/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab (NTZ)), were extracted from the MSBase Registry. Predictors of relapse hazard during the treatment gap and the first year of cladribine therapy were determined.

RESULTS

Of 513 patients, 22 relapsed during the treatment gap, and 38 within 1 year of starting cladribine. Relapse in the year before pDMT cessation predicted treatment gap relapse hazard (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.43, 95% confidence interval (CI)  = 1.03-5.71). After multivariable adjustment, relapse hazard on cladribine was predicted by relapse before pDMT cessation (HR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.01-4.02), treatment gap relapse (HR = 6.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.65-14.41), switch from NTZ (HR compared to injectable therapies 4.08, 95% CI = 1.35-12.33) and age at cladribine start (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.91-0.99).

CONCLUSION

Relapse during or prior to the treatment gap, and younger age, are of prognostic relevance in the year after switching to cladribine. Switching from NTZ is also independently associated with greater relapse hazard.

Not all roads lead to the immune system: the genetic basis of multiple sclerosis severity

Multiple sclerosis is a leading cause of neurological disability in adults. Heterogeneity in multiple sclerosis clinical presentation has posed a major challenge for identifying genetic variants associated with disease outcomes.

To overcome this challenge, we used prospectively ascertained clinical outcomes data from the largest international multiple sclerosis Registry, MSBase. We assembled a cohort of deeply phenotyped individuals of European ancestry with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. We used unbiased genome-wide association study and machine learning approaches to assess the genetic contribution to longitudinally defined multiple sclerosis severity phenotypes in 1,813 individuals.

Our primary analyses did not identify any genetic variants of moderate to large effect sizes that met genome-wide significance thresholds. The strongest signal was associated with rs7289446 (β=-0.4882, P = 2.73 × 10−7), intronic to SEZ6L on chromosome 22. However, we demonstrate that clinical outcomes in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis are associated with multiple genetic loci of small effect sizes. Using a machine learning approach incorporating over 62,000 variants together with clinical and demographic variables available at multiple sclerosis disease onset, we could predict severity with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79–0.88). Our machine learning algorithm achieved positive predictive value for outcome assignation of 80% and negative predictive value of 88%. This outperformed our machine learning algorithm that contained clinical and demographic variables alone (area under the receiver operator curve 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60).

Secondary, sex-stratified analyses identified two genetic loci that met genome-wide significance thresholds. One in females (rs10967273; βfemale =0.8289, P = 3.52 × 10−08), the other in males (rs698805; βmale = -1.5395, P = 4.35 × 10−08), providing some evidence for sex dimorphism in multiple sclerosis severity. Tissue enrichment and pathway analyses identified an overrepresentation of genes expressed in central nervous system compartments generally, and specifically in the cerebellum (P = 0.023). These involved mitochondrial function, synaptic plasticity, oligodendroglial biology, cellular senescence, calcium and g-protein receptor signalling pathways. We further identified six variants with strong evidence for regulating clinical outcomes, the strongest signal again intronic to SEZ6L (adjusted hazard ratio 0.72, P = 4.85 × 10−4).

Here we report a milestone in our progress towards understanding the clinical heterogeneity of multiple sclerosis outcomes, implicating functionally distinct mechanisms to multiple sclerosis risk. Importantly, we demonstrate that machine learning using common single nucleotide variant clusters, together with clinical variables readily available at diagnosis can improve prognostic capabilities at diagnosis, and with further validation has the potential to translate to meaningful clinical practice change.

Early predictors of disability in paediatric multiple sclerosis: evidence from a multi-national registry

BACKGROUND

Early recognition of markers of faster disability worsening in paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) is a key requisite of personalised therapy for children with MS at the earliest possible time.

OBJECTIVE

To identify early predictors of rapid disability accrual in patients with paediatric-onset MS.

METHODS

Using the global MSBase registry, we identified patients who were <18 years old at the onset of MS symptoms. The clinico-demographic characteristics examined as predictors of future MS Severity Score (MSSS) included sex, age at symptom onset, absence of disability at the initial assessment, maximum Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, relapse frequency and presence of brainstem, pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms in the first year. A Bayesian log-normal generalised linear mixed model adjusted for cumulative proportion of time on higher-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) was used to analyse the data.

RESULTS

672 patients (70% female) contributing 9357 visits were included. The median age at symptom onset was 16 (quartiles 15-17) years. Older age at symptom onset (exp(β)=1.10 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.17)), higher EDSS score (1.22 (1.12 to 1.34)) and pyramidal (1.31 (1.11 to 1.55)), visual (1.25 (1.10 to 1.44)) or cerebellar (1.18 (1.01 to 1.38)) symptoms in the first year were associated with higher MSSS. MSSS was reduced by 4% for every 24% increase in the proportion of time on higher-efficacy DMTs (0.96 (0.93 to 0.99)).

CONCLUSIONS

A relatively later onset of MS in childhood, higher disability and pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms during the first year predicted significant worsening in disability in patients with paediatric-onset MS. Persistent treatment with higher-efficacy DMTs was associated with a reduced rate of disability worsening.

Disease Reactivation After Cessation of Disease-Modifying Therapy in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study from two large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12-months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualised relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation.

RESULTS

14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for seven therapies. Annualised rates of relapse (ARR) started to increase 2-months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR, 95% confidence interval): 0.47, 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89), and stabilised faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01-0.29). Magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low, but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age and higher EDSS. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80).

CONCLUSION

The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued different therapies. These results suggest that untreated intervals should be minimised after stopping anti-trafficking therapies (natalizumab and fingolimod).

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides class III that disease reactivation occurs within months of discontinuation of multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapies. Risk of disease activity is reduced by commencement of a subsequent therapy.

Consensus on early detection of disease progression in patients with multiple sclerosis

Background

Early identification of the transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) can be challenging for clinicians, as diagnostic criteria for SPMS are primarily based on physical disability and a holistic interpretation.

Objective

To establish a consensus on patient monitoring to identify promptly disease progression and the most useful clinical and paraclinical variables for early identification of disease progression in MS.

Methods

A RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Method was used to establish the level of agreement among a panel of 15 medical experts in MS. Eighty-three items were circulated to the experts for confidential rating of the grade of agreement and recommendation. Consensus was defined when ≥66% agreement or disagreement was achieved.

Results

Consensus was reached in 72 out of 83 items (86.7%). The items addressed frequency of follow-up visits, definition of progression, identification of clinical, cognitive, and radiological assessments as variables of suspected or confirmed SPMS diagnosis, the need for more accurate assessment tools, and the use of promising molecular and imaging biomarkers to predict disease progression and/or diagnose SPMS.

Conclusion

Consensus achieved on these topics could guide neurologists to identify earlier disease progression and to plan targeted clinical and therapeutic interventions during the earliest stages of SPMS.

Impact of methodological choices in comparative effectiveness studies: application in natalizumab versus fingolimod comparison among patients with multiple sclerosis

Background

Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies.

Methods

Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed.

Results

Overall, 5,148 relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption.

Conclusions

This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is fulfilled.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01623-8.

Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis

Background and purpose

The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short‐term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6‐month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long‐term disability worsening.

Methods

In total, 14,802 6‐month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6‐month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long‐term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial.

Results

The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29–0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5).

Conclusions

Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6‐month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long‐term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long‐term disability accrual.

Prediction of multiple sclerosis outcomes when switching to ocrelizumab

BACKGROUND

Increasingly, people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) are switched to highly effective disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) such as ocrelizumab.

OBJECTIVE

To determine predictors of relapse and disability progression when switching from another DMT to ocrelizumab.

METHODS

Patients with RRMS who switched to ocrelizumab were identified from the MSBase Registry and grouped by prior disease-modifying therapy (pDMT; interferon-β/glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, fingolimod or natalizumab) and washout duration (<1 month, 1-2 months or 2-6 months). Survival analyses including multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to identify predictors of on-ocrelizumab relapse within 1 year, and 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP).

RESULTS

After adjustment, relapse hazard when switching from fingolimod was greater than other pDMTs, but only in the first 3 months of ocrelizumab therapy (hazard ratio (HR) = 3.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.57-11.11, p = 0.004). The adjusted hazard for CDP was significantly higher with longer washout (2-6 m compared to <1 m: HR = 9.57, 95% CI = 1.92-47.64, p = 0.006).

CONCLUSION

The risk of disability worsening during switch to ocrelizumab is reduced by short treatment gaps. Patients who cease fingolimod are at heightened relapse risk in the first 3 months on ocrelizumab. Prospective evaluation of strategies such as washout reduction may help optimise this switch.

Association of Latitude and Exposure to Ultraviolet B Radiation With Severity of Multiple Sclerosis: An International Registry Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of MS.

METHODS

This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and ≥1 EDSS [Expanded Disability Status Scale] score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS.

RESULTS

46,128 patients contributing 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2±12, resident between latitudes 19°35´ and 56°16´) were included in this study. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. In latitudes greater than 40°, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (β=0.08, 95%CI: 0.04 to 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40° (β=-0.02, 95% CI:-0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (β=- 0.5, 95% CI: -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (β=- 0.6, 95%CI:-0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (β=-1.0, 95%CI:-1.1 to 0.9).

DISCUSSION

In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure contributing to both MS susceptibility and severity.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS

Background:

The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability.

Objective:

To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS.

Methods:

The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients’ demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C.

Results:

A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model.

Conclusion:

Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Multiple Sclerosis Relapses Following Cessation of Fingolimod

Background

There is growing interest in the issue of disease reactivation in multiple sclerosis following fingolimod cessation. Relatively little is known about modifiers of the risk of post-cessation relapse, including the delay to commencement of new therapy and prior disease activity.

Objective

We aimed to determine the rate of relapse following cessation of fingolimod and to identify predictors of relapse following cessation.

Methods

Data were extracted from the MSBase registry in March 2019. Inclusion criteria were (a) clinically definite relapsing multiple sclerosis, (b) treatment with fingolimod for ≥ 12 months, (c) follow-up after cessation for ≥ 12 months, and (d) at least one Expanded Disability Status Scale score recorded in the 12 months before cessation.

Results

A total of 685 patients were identified who met criteria. The mean annualised relapse rate was 1.71 (95% CI 1.59, 1.85) in the year prior to fingolimod, 0.50 (95% CI 0.44, 0.55) on fingolimod and 0.43 (95% CI 0.38, 0.49) after fingolimod. Of these, 218 (32%) patients experienced a relapse in the first 12 months. Predictors of a higher relapse rate in the first year were: younger age at fingolimod cessation, higher relapse rate in the year prior to cessation, delaying commencement of new therapy and switching to low-efficacy therapy.

Conclusions

Disease reactivation following fingolimod cessation is more common in younger patients, those with greater disease activity prior to cessation and in those who switch to a low-efficacy therapy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40261-022-01129-7.

Skin Autoimmunity Secondary to Alemtuzumab in a Tertiary Care Spanish Hospital

Background and Objectives

The most common adverse events (AEs) after alemtuzumab (ALZ) include adverse infusion reactions, infections, and autoimmune disorders. Skin AEs are common during infusion, but there are few reported cases of long-term skin autoimmune disease.

Methods

A retrospective case series of patients developing long-term autoimmune skin disorders after ALZ administration in a tertiary care hospital.

Results

Of 133 patients treated with ALZ, 8 patients (6.02%) developed 9 autoimmune cutaneous AEs, including 4 events of alopecia areata, 2 of vitiligo, 2 of chronic urticaria, and 1 of inflammatory atrichia. Three of them occurred between the first and the second infusion.

Discussion

The lesions described are secondary to autoimmune disorders, probably related to immune dysregulation because of a differential lymphocyte repopulation after ALZ. Autoimmune cutaneous AEs may be frequent, and it would be recommended to monitor its appearance to treat them.

Identification of the genetic mechanism that associates L3MBTL3 to multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex and demyelinating disease of the central nervous system. One of the challenges of the post-GWAS era is to understand the molecular basis of statistical associations to reveal gene networks and potential therapeutic targets. The L3MBTL3 locus has been associated with MS risk by GWAS. To identify the causal variant of the locus, we performed fine mapping in a cohort of 3440 MS patients and 1688 healthy controls. The variant that best explained the association was rs6569648 (P = 4.13E-10, OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.64-0.79), which tagged rs7740107, located in intron 7 of L3MBTL3. The rs7740107 (A/T) variant has been reported to be the best expression and splice quantitative trait locus (eQTL and sQTL) of the region in up to 35 human GTEx tissues. By sequencing RNA from blood of 17 MS patients and quantification by digital qPCR, we determined that this eQTL/sQTL originated from the expression of a novel short transcript starting in intron 7 near rs7740107. The short transcript was translated into three proteins starting at different translation initiation codons. These N-terminal truncated proteins lacked the region where L3MBTL3 interacts with the transcriptional regulator RBPJ (Recombination Signal Binding Protein for Immunoglobulin Kappa J Region) which, in turn, regulates the Notch signaling pathway. Our data and other functional studies suggest that the genetic mechanism underlying the MS association of rs7740107 affects not only the expression of L3MBTL3 isoforms, but might also involve the Notch signaling pathway.

Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem.

METHODS

We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used.

RESULTS

We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS.

Confirmed 6-Month Disability Improvement and Worsening Correlate with Long-term Disability Outcomes in Alemtuzumab-Treated Patients with Multiple Sclerosis: Post Hoc Analysis of the CARE-MS Studies

Introduction

In the 2-year CARE-MS trials (NCT00530348; NCT00548405) in patients with relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis, alemtuzumab showed superior efficacy versus subcutaneous interferon beta-1a. Efficacy was maintained in two consecutive extensions (NCT00930553; NCT02255656). This post hoc analysis compared disability outcomes over 9 years among alemtuzumab-treated patients according to whether they experienced confirmed disability improvement (CDI) or worsening (CDW) or neither CDI nor CDW.

Methods

CARE-MS patients were randomized to receive two alemtuzumab courses (12 mg/day; 5 days at baseline; 3 days at 12 months), with additional as-needed 3-day courses in the extensions. CDI or CDW were defined as ≥ 1.0-point decrease or increase, respectively, in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score from core study baseline confirmed over 6 months, assessed in patients with baseline EDSS score ≥ 2.0. Improved or stable EDSS scores were defined as ≥ 1-point decrease or ≤ 0.5-point change (either direction), respectively, from core study baseline. Functional systems (FS) scores were also assessed.

Results

Of 511 eligible patients, 43% experienced CDI and 34% experienced CDW at any time through year 9 (patients experiencing both CDI and CDW were counted in each individual group); 29% experienced neither CDI nor CDW. At year 9, patients with CDI had a −0.58-point mean EDSS score change from baseline; 88% had stable or improved EDSS scores. Improvements occurred across all FS, primarily in sensory, pyramidal, and cerebellar domains. Patients with CDW had a +1.71-point mean EDSS score change; 16% had stable or improved EDSS scores. Patients with neither CDI nor CDW had a −0.10-point mean EDSS score change; 98% had stable or improved EDSS scores.

Conclusion

CDI achievement at any point during the CARE-MS studies was associated with improved disability at year 9, highlighting the potential of alemtuzumab to change the multiple sclerosis course. Conversely, CDW at any point was associated with worsened disability at year 9.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40120-021-00262-3.

[12th Post-ECTRIMS Meeting: review of the novelties from the 2019 ECTRIMS Congress (I)]

INTRODUCTION

Like every year, after the ECTRIMS Congress, renowned Spanish neurologists who are experts in multiple sclerosis presented the main novelties in research in this field at the Post-ECTRIMS Meeting.

AIM

To summarise the content presented at the 12th edition of the Post-ECTRIMS Meeting, which took place in September 2019 in Sevilla and is presented in two parts.

DEVELOPMENT

This first part addresses the latest studies on vitamin D deficiency and the discrepancies that currently exist regarding its treatment. The advances made in epigenetics allow us to present this approach as a possible biomarker of multiple sclerosis. An account is provided to explain the growing importance of imaging techniques to detect atrophy and other phenomena that occur during the disease, such as changes in iron concentration or remyelination processes, which allow us to further our understanding of the mechanisms of cortical pathology, and the dimensionality of neurodegeneration during its course. Findings related to immunological mechanisms and advances in potential antigen-specific therapies are discussed. The contribution presents the latest studies on the assessment of cognitive impairment and its rehabilitation, which are becoming increasingly important due to the high prevalence of these disorders and the absence of their systematic assessment in clinical practice. Finally, the unmet social and health needs of multiple sclerosis patients in our country are presented, with emphasis on the current deficits in the system of social protection.

Association of Sustained Immunotherapy With Disability Outcomes in Patients With Active Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

Importance

It is unclear whether relapses and disease-modifying therapies are associated with the rate of disability accumulation in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS).

Objective

To examine the association of relapses with the rate of disability accumulation in patients with SPMS and to assess whether treatment before or during the secondary progressive phase can slow the progression of disability accumulation.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this observational cohort study, patient data were prospectively collected from the MSBase international registry between January 1, 1995, and February 1, 2018. Among 53 680 patients in the MSBase registry, 4997 patients with SPMS (using the Lorscheider definition) were identified. Of those, 1621 patients were eligible for study inclusion based on sufficient follow-up before and after the onset of SPMS. Data were analyzed from November 15, 2017, to January 13, 2020.

Exposures

The association between disability accumulation and several clinical and demographic variables, including relapses and exposure to immunotherapy, was evaluated.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Two outcomes were analyzed as measures of disability accumulation during SPMS: the rate of disability accumulation during the secondary progressive phase (change relative to the reference population of patients with MS and absolute change) and the risk of becoming wheelchair dependent. A third outcome, the cumulative risk of experiencing confirmed disability progression events, was used for a secondary analysis. Outcomes were evaluated using multivariable mixed models (ie, linear and Cox models).

Results

Of 1621 patients eligible for inclusion, 1103 patients (68.0%) were female, with a mean (SD) age at MS onset of 33.9 (10.6) years. A total of 661 patients (40.8%) experienced superimposed relapses during SPMS. Therapy receipt and relapses during early relapsing-remitting MS were not associated with disability accumulation during the secondary progressive phase. Higher relapse rates during the secondary progressive disease stage were associated with an increased risk of becoming wheelchair dependent (hazard ratio [HR], 1.87; 95% CI, 1.17-3.00; P = .009). Among patients who experienced superimposed relapses during SPMS, greater receipt of disease-modifying therapies was significantly associated with a reduced rate of disability progression and a lower risk of becoming wheelchair dependent.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, the rate of disability progression after the onset of SPMS was not associated with the early disease course and treatment decisions. Relapses during SPMS were associated with accelerated disability progression and represent an accessible treatment target. Disease-modifying therapy was associated with improvements in disability outcomes among patients with active relapses during SPMS. The study's results suggest that inflammatory disease activity remains a substantial yet modifiable component of SPMS.

Natalizumab, Fingolimod and Dimethyl Fumarate Use and Pregnancy-Related Relapse and Disability in Women With Multiple Sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate pregnancy-related disease activity in a contemporary multiple sclerosis (MS) cohort.

METHODS

Using data from the MSBase Registry, we included pregnancies conceived after 31 Dec 2010 from women with relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome. Predictors of intrapartum relapse, and postpartum relapse and disability progression were determined by clustered logistic regression or Cox regression analyses.

RESULTS

We included 1998 pregnancies from 1619 women with MS. Preconception annualized relapse rate (ARR) was 0.29 (95% CI 0.27-0.32), fell to 0.19 (0.14-0.24) in third trimester, and increased to 0.59 (0.51-0.67) in early postpartum. Among women who used fingolimod or natalizumab, ARR before pregnancy was 0.37 (0.28-0.49) and 0.29 (0.22-0.37), respectively, and increased during pregnancy. Intrapartum ARR decreased with preconception dimethyl fumarate use. ARR spiked after delivery across all DMT groups. Natalizumab continuation into pregnancy reduced the odds of relapse during pregnancy (OR 0.76 per month [0.60-0.95], p=0.017). DMT re-initiation with natalizumab protected against postpartum relapse (HR 0.11 [0.04-0.32], p<0.0001). Breastfeeding women were less likely to relapse (HR 0.61 [0.41-0.91], p=0.016). 5.6% of pregnancies were followed by confirmed disability progression, predicted by higher relapse activity in pregnancy and postpartum.

CONCLUSION

Intrapartum and postpartum relapse probabilities increased among women with MS after natalizumab or fingolimod cessation. In women considered to be at high relapse risk, use of natalizumab before pregnancy and continued up to 34 weeks gestation, with early re-initiation after delivery is an effective option to minimize relapse risks. Strategies of DMT use have to be balanced against potential fetal/neonatal complications.

Deficits in Early Sensory and Cognitive Processing Are Related to Phase and Nonphase EEG Activity in Multiple Sclerosis Patients

Currently, there is scarce knowledge about the relation between spectral bands modulations and the basis of cognitive impairment in multiple sclerosis (MS). In this sense, analyzing the evoked or phase activity can confirm results from traditional event-related potential (ERP) studies. However, studying the induced or nonphase activity may be necessary to elucidate hidden compensatory or affected cognitive mechanisms. In this study, 30 remitting-relapsing multiple sclerosis patients and 30 healthy controls (HCs) matched in sociodemographic variables performed a visual oddball task. The main goal was to analyze phase and nonphase alpha and gamma bands by applying temporal spectral evolution (TSE) and its potential relation with cognitive impairment in these patients. The behavioural results showed slower reaction time and poorer accuracy in MS patients compared to controls. In contrast, the time-frequency analysis of electroencephalography (EEG) revealed a delay in latency and lower amplitude in MS patients in evoked and induced alpha compared to controls. With respect to the gamma band, there were no differences between the groups. In summary, MS patients showed deficits in early sensorial (evoked alpha activity) and cognitive processing (induced alpha activity in longer latencies), whereas the induced gamma band supported the hypothesis of its role in translation of attentional focus (induced activity) and did not show strong activity in this paradigm (visual oddball).

Identification of patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis eligible for high-efficacy therapies

Relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS) presents a highly variable clinical evolution among patients, and its management should be personalized. Although there is no cure at present, effective disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are available. Selection of the most appropriate DMT for each patient is influenced by several clinical, radiological and demographic aspects as well as personal preferences that, at times, are not covered in the regulatory criteria. This may be a source of difficulty, especially in certain situations where so-called 'high-efficacy DMTs' (usually considered second-line) could be of greater benefit to the patient. In this narrative review, we discuss evidence and experience, and propose a pragmatic guidance on decision-making with respect to the indication and management of high-efficacy DMT in adult patients with RMS based on expert opinion.

The effectiveness of natalizumab vs fingolimod-A comparison of international registry studies

BACKGROUND

Natalizumab and fingolimod were the first preparations recommended for disease breakthrough in priorly treated relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Of three published head-to-head studies two showed that natalizumab is the more effective to prevent relapses and EDSS worsening.

METHODS

By re-analyzing original published results from MSBase, France, and Denmark using uniform methodologies, we aimed at identifying the effects of differences in methodology, in the MS-populations, and at re-evaluating the differences in effectiveness between the two drugs. We gained access to copies of the individual amended databases and pooled all data. We used uniform inclusion/exclusion criteria and statistical methods with Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting.

RESULTS

The pooled analyses comprised 968 natalizumab- and 1479 fingolimod treated patients. The on-treatment natalizumab/fingolimod relapse rate ratio was 0.77 (p=0.004). The hazard ratio (HR) for a first relapse was 0.82 (p=0.030), and the HR for sustained EDSS improvement was 1.4 (p=0.009). There were modest differences between each of the original published studies and the replication study, but the conclusions of the three original studies remained unchanged: in two of them natalizumab was more effective, but in the third there was no difference between natalizumab and fingolimod.

CONCLUSION

The results were largely invariant to the epidemiological and statistical methods but differed between the MS populations. Generally, the advantage of natalizumab was confirmed.

The MSBase pregnancy, neonatal outcomes, and women's health registry

Background:

Family planning and pregnancy decisions are key considerations in the management of women with multiple sclerosis (MS), who are typically diagnosed between the ages of 20–40 years. Despite a strong evidence base that pregnancy is not harmful for women with MS, many knowledge gaps remain. These include: best management strategies through pregnancy in the era of highly effective disease-modifying therapies (DMT); foetal risks associated with DMT exposure in utero or in relation to breastfeeding; knowledge base around the use of assisted reproductive technologies; the long-term impact of pregnancy on disease outcomes, as well as the impact of long-term DMT use on women’s health and cancer risk.

Methods:

Here, we describe the new MSBase pregnancy, neonatal outcomes and women’s health registry. We provide the rationale for, and detailed description of, the variables collected within the registry, together with data acquisition details.

Conclusion:

The present paper will act as a reference document for future studies.

Treatment Response Score to Glatiramer Acetate or Interferon Beta-1a

OBJECTIVE

To compare the effectiveness of glatiramer acetate (GA) vs intramuscular interferon beta-1a (IFN-β-1a), we applied a previously published statistical method aimed at identifying patients' profiles associated with efficacy of treatments.

METHODS

Data from 2 independent multiple sclerosis datasets, a randomized study (the Combination Therapy in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis [CombiRx] trial, evaluating GA vs IFN-β-1a) and an observational cohort extracted from MSBase, were used to build and validate a treatment response score, regressing annualized relapse rates (ARRs) on a set of baseline predictors.

RESULTS

The overall ARR ratio of GA to IFN-β-1a in the CombiRx trial was 0.72. The response score (made up of a linear combination of age, sex, relapses in the previous year, disease duration, and Expanded Disability Status Scale score) detected differential response of GA vs IFN-β-1a: in the trial, patients with the largest benefit from GA vs IFN-β-1a (lower score quartile) had an ARR ratio of 0.40 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.25-0.63), those in the 2 middle quartiles of 0.90 (95% CI 0.61-1.34), and those in the upper quartile of 1.14 (95% CI 0.59-2.18) (heterogeneity p = 0.012); this result was validated on MSBase, with the corresponding ARR ratios of 0.58 (95% CI 0.46-0.72), 0.92 (95% CI 0.77-1.09,) and 1.29 (95% CI 0.97-1.71); heterogeneity p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate the possibility of a criterion, based on patients' characteristics, to choose whether to treat with GA or IFN-β-1a. This result, replicated on an independent real-life cohort, may have implications for clinical decisions in everyday clinical practice.