Long-term effectiveness of natalizumab in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: A propensity-matched study

Treatment options for secondary progressive MS (SPMS) are limited, especially considering that the new drugs recently approved are licensed for actively relapsing patients. We aimed to compare the disability progression in a real-world cohort of SPMS patients treated with natalizumab (NTZ) or interferon beta-1b (IFNb-1b). This multicenter retrospective enrolled patients with a diagnosis of SPMS according to 2014 Lublin criteria, who received NTZ or IFNb-1b for at least 48 months between the 1st June 2012 and the 15th May 2018 ​at 33 Italian MS centers contributing to the Italian MS Registry NTZ or IFNb-1b. Confirmed Expanded Disability Status Scale worsening (CEW) and progression independent of relapse (PIRA) were evaluated. In order to correct for non-randomization, a propensity score matching of the groups was performed. Out of 5206 MS patients identified at the time of data extraction, 421 SPMS patients treated with NTZ (224 [53.2%] females, mean age 45.3 ​± ​25.4 years) and 353 with IFNb-1b (133 [37.8%] females, mean age 48.5 ​± ​19.8 years) were enrolled. After applying the matching procedure, 102 patients were retained in the NTZ group and 98 in the IFNb-2b group. The proportion of patients who reached the 48-month 1-point CEW was significantly higher in IFNb-1b compared to NTZ group (58.2% versus 30.4%, p ​= ​0.01). The proportion of patients who developed PIRA at 48 months were significantly higher in IFNb-1b compared to NTZ (72.4% versus 40.2%, p ​= ​0.01). EDSS before treatment initiation and SPMS duration were risk factors for disability progression in terms of PIRA (HR 2.54, 25%CI 1.67-5.7; p ​= ​0.006 and HR 2.04, 25%CI 1.22-3.35; p ​= ​0.01, respectively). Patients treated with IFNb-1b were 1.64 times more to likely to develop PIRA (HR 1.64, 25%CI 1.04-4.87; p ​= ​0.001). Treatment with NTZ in SPMS patients showed more favorable disability outcomes compared to IFNb-1b with beneficial effects over 48 months.

Current knowledge on multiple sclerosis pathophysiology, disability progression assessment and treatment options, and the role of autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an autoimmune disease of the central nervous system (CNS) that affects nearly 2.8 million people each year. MS distinguishes three main types: relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS), secondary progressive MS (SPMS) and primary progressive MS (PPMS). RRMS is the most common type, with the majority of patients eventually progressing to SPMS, in which neurological development is constant, whereas PPMS is characterized by a progressive course from disease onset. New or additional insights into the role of effector and regulatory cells of the immune and CNS systems, Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection, and the microbiome in the pathophysiology of MS have emerged, which may lead to the development of more targeted therapies that can halt or reverse neurodegeneration. Depending on the type and severity of the disease, various disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are currently used for RRMS/SPMS and PPMS. As a last resort, and especially in highly active RRMS that does not respond to DMTs, autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) is performed and has shown good results in reducing neuroinflammation. Nevertheless, the question of its potential role in preventing disability progression remains open. The aim of this review is to provide a comprehensive update on MS pathophysiology, assessment of MS disability progression and current treatments, and to examine the potential role of AHSCT in preventing disability progression.

Ethnic disparities in the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a neuroinflammatory disorder which affects 2.8 million people world-wide. A growing body of evidence shows ethnic disparities in MS. This review aims to evaluate differences, based upon ethnic background, in the incidence, prevalence, disease course, and efficacy of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) among people with MS (PwMS).

METHOD

Ethnicities were classified as White, Black, Hispanic, Asian, and Middle Eastern and North African (MENA). A literature search was conducted using the PubMed search engine to identify articles on MS and ethnicity that were published in the English language between 01/01/2005 and 31/05/2022.

RESULTS

101 studies met all inclusion criteria. Although the incidence and prevalence of MS varied among ethnicities, findings were inconsistent and depended on the continent of the study. Ethnicity may have an impact on the disease course. PwMS from Black, Hispanic, and MENA, but not Asian ethnicities, appeared to accumulate physical disability at a faster rate than those from White ethnicity. Although there was a lack of studies evaluating the relative safety and efficacy of DMTs among various ethnicities, interferon-beta was found to be less efficacious in PwMS from Black ethnicity.

CONCLUSIONS

Further studies, with more uniform definitions of ethnicity are required to comprehensively understand ethnic disparities in MS, in particular to identify underlying causes, to facilitate the delivery of personalised medical care and avoid inequity.

Treatment Patterns and Unmet Need for Patients with Progressive Multiple Sclerosis in the United States: Survey Results from 2016 to 2021

INTRODUCTION

Much of the current literature on treatment patterns and disability progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) does not distinguish between the relapsing-remitting and progressive subtypes (including primary [PPMS] and secondary progressive MS [SPMS]), or between active/nonactive disease. Current treatment options for progressive MS are limited, with only one approved product for PPMS and none specifically for nonactive SPMS. Here we report treatment patterns, disability progression, and unmet needs among patients with active and nonactive PPMS and SPMS.

METHODS

The annual, cross-sectional survey from the Adelphi Disease Specific Program was used to collect physician-reported data on US adult patients with PPMS and SPMS, including active and nonactive disease. Treatment patterns (including the proportion of patients who were untreated with a disease-modifying therapy [DMT]), disability progression, and unmet need are described from 2016 to 2021.

RESULTS

Data were collected for 2067 patients with progressive MS (PPMS, 1583; SPMS, 484). A substantial proportion of patients were untreated across all groups, and this was highest for nonactive PPMS (~ 43%). The proportion of untreated patients generally declined over time but remained high in 2018-2021 (~ 10-38%). Among treated patients, the proportion receiving infusions increased over time to ~ 34-46%, largely driven by ocrelizumab use after approval. Disability progression was reported for most patients (> 50%), including many who were receiving a DMT. Across all disease subtypes, when physicians were asked about the greatest unmet need with current DMTs, they most frequently cited effectiveness (~ 63-87%), and specifically slowing disease progression (~ 32-59%).

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis of physician-reported data reveals that patients with progressive MS, particularly those with nonactive disease, frequently remain untreated or continue to decline despite treatment with available DMTs. Thus there is an enduring need for safe and effective treatments for this underserved population.

Impact of adherence to disease modifying therapies on long-term clinical and economic outcomes in multiple sclerosis: A claims analysis of real-world data

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic neurodegenerative inflammatory disease that requires long-term commitment to treatment for optimal outcomes. A variety of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) are now available that reduce relapses and delay disease progression in people with MS. However, adherence remains a significant issue, with a variety of mental, physical, and emotional factors contributing to non-adherence. In a large number of studies, non-adherence has been associated with worse clinical outcomes (relapses and disease severity), a higher economic burden, and loss of work productivity. However, many of these studies were short-term (1-2 years) or cross-sectional studies; thus, more data are needed on the long-term clinical and economic impacts of DMT non-adherence. The objective of this study was to determine the longer-term impact of adherence to DMTs on disease activity and healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) in people with MS. The study hypothesis was that non-adherence to DMTs would be associated long-term with worse clinical outcomes and a higher economic burden.

METHODS

A retrospective administrative claims analysis of the US MarketScan® Commercial database (2011-2017) in individuals (18-65 years) with MS (based on International Classification of Disease coding) was conducted. Adherence was classified by proportion of days covered (PDC) ≥0.8 and non-adherence by PDC <0.8; sensitivity analyses helped further categorize as moderately (PDC ≥0.6-<0.8) or highly (PDC <0.6) non-adherent. Cohorts were matched using propensity score matching. Time to first relapse, annualized relapse rate (ARR), time to use of assistive devices (cane/walker or wheelchair), and annual HCRU (inpatient, emergency room [ER], outpatient, and MRI visits and costs) were compared between cohorts.

RESULTS

10,248 MS cases were identified; 58% met adherence criteria, and 42% met non-adherence criteria. Mean follow-up from diagnosis or first DMT claim was 5.3 years. Adherent individuals had a longer time to first relapse (hazard ratio [HR] 0.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.90; p<0.0001), a lower ARR (0.13 vs. 0.18, respectively; rate ratio [RR] 0.75 [95% CI: 0.71-0.79]; p<0.0001), and longer lag times to cane/walker use (HR 0.79 [95% CI: 0.66-0.94]; p=0.0067) and wheelchair use (HR 0.68 [95% CI: 0.55-0.83]; p=0.0002) than non-adherent individuals. Adherent individuals had fewer annual inpatient and ER visits and lower total costs than those who were non-adherent (p<0.0001). Sensitivity analyses showed that differences in disease activity and HCRU were generally more pronounced between matched adherent and highly non-adherent pairs than between matched adherent and moderately non-adherent pairs.

CONCLUSION

Significant differences in MS disease activity and HCRU were observed based on adherence to DMTs. Our study underscores the negative impact of non-adherence to DMTs on long-term clinical and economic outcomes in MS.

Health related quality of life in the domain of physical activity predicts confirmed disability progression in people with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis

INTRODUCTION

The diagnosis of the progression phase of Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is still retrospective and based on the objectivation of clinical disability accumulation.

OBJECTIVES

To assess whether the Patient Reported Outcomes Measures (PROMs) scores predict the occurrence of disease progression within three years of follow-up.

METHODS

Observational prospective multicenter study. Stable Relapsing-Remitting MS (RRMS) patients were enrolled. At enrollment, patients completed the following PROMs: Beck Depression Inventory- II, The Treatment Satisfaction Questionnaire for Medications, Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36- Item (SF36), Fatigue Severity Scale. EDSS was assessed at enrollment and three years later. The outcome measure was defined as the occurrence of confirmed disability progression (CDP) within three years of follow-up. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were performed to study the association between the final score of each test and the outcome.

RESULTS

SF36-Physical Functioning (SF36-PF) was the only independent variable associated with the outcome. The ROC curve analysis determined a score of 77.5 at SF36-PF as the cut-off point identifying patients experiencing CDP within three years of follow-up [AUC: 0.66 (95% CI: 0.56-0.75)].

CONCLUSIONS

RRMS patients scoring higher (>77.5) at SF36-PF subscale have a higher likelihood to experience CDP within the next three years.

Objective perimetry and progression of multiple sclerosis

Introduction

We re-examined the per-region response amplitudes and delays obtained from multifocal pupillographic objective perimetry (mfPOP) after 10 years in 44 persons living with multiple sclerosis (PwMS), both to examine which parts of the visual field had progressed in terms of response properties and to examine if the baseline data could predict the overall progression of disease.

Methods

Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were assessed in 2009 and 2019. Both eyes of each participant were concurrently tested at 44 locations/eye on both occasions. Several measures of clinical progression were examined, using logistic regression to determine the odds of progression.

Results

At the second examination the 44 PwMS (31 females) were aged 61.0 ± 12.2 y. Mean EDSS had not changed significantly (3.69 ± 1.23 in 2009, 3.81 ± 2.00 in 2019). mfPOP delay increased progressively from inferior to superior regions of the visual fields while amplitudes demonstrated a temporal to nasal gradient. The mean of the 3 most delayed visual field regions was correlated with progression of MS by 2019 (p = 0.023). Logistic regression indicated a significant association between delay and odds of progression (p = 0.045): an individual with 3 regions at least 1 SD (40 ms) slower than the mean in 2009 had 2.05× (±SE: 1.43× to 2.95×) the odds of progression by 2019. A 1 SD shorter delay was associated with 2.05× lower odds of progression. Amplitude changes were not predictive of progression.

Significance

mfPOP may provide a rapid, convenient method of monitoring and predicting MS progression.

Assessment of T2 lesion-based disease activity volume outcomes in predicting disease progression in multiple sclerosis over 10 years

BACKGROUND

New/enlarging T2 lesion count and T2-lesion volume (LV) are used as conventional secondary endpoints in clinical trials of patients with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). However, those outcomes may have several limitations, such as inability to account for heterogeneity of lesion formation/enlargement frequency and their dynamic volumetric behavior. Measurement of volume rather than count of new/enlarging lesions may be more representative outcome of dynamic changes over time.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether new/enlarging T2-LV is more predictive of confirmed disability progression (CDP), compared to total T2-LV or new/enlarging T2 lesion count over long-term follow-up.

METHODS

We studied 176 early relapsing-remitting PwMS who were followed with annual MRI examinations over 10 years. T2-LV, new/enlarging T2-LV, and new/enlarging lesion count were determined. Cumulative count/volumes were obtained. 10-year CDP was confirmed after 48-weeks. ANCOVA analysis detected MRI outcome differences in stable (n = 76) and CDP (n = 100) groups at different time points, after correction for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS

PwMS with CDP had greater cumulative new/enlarging T2-LV at 4 years (p = 0.049), and enlarging T2-LV at 4- (p = 0.039) and 6-year follow-up (p = 0.032), compared to stable patients. PwMS with CDP did not differ from stable ones in new/enlarging T2 lesion count or total T2-LV at any of the study timepoints. PwMS with Expanded Disability Status Scale change >2.0 had significantly greater enlarging T2 lesion count (p = 0.01) and enlarging T2-LV (p = 0.038) over the 10-year follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Enlargement of T2 lesions is more strongly associated with long-term disability progression compared to other conventional T2 lesion-based outcomes.

Siponimod vs placebo in active secondary progressive multiple sclerosis: a post hoc analysis from the phase 3 EXPAND study

BACKGROUND

Siponimod is a sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor modulator approved for active secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (aSPMS) in most countries; however, phase 3 EXPAND study data are from an SPMS population with/without disease activity. A need exists to characterize efficacy/safety of siponimod in aSPMS.

METHODS

Post hoc analysis of participants with aSPMS (≥ 1 relapse in 2 years before study and/or ≥ 1 T1 gadolinium-enhancing [Gd +] magnetic resonance imaging [MRI] lesions at baseline) receiving oral siponimod (2 mg/day) or placebo for up to 3 years in EXPAND.

ENDPOINTS

3-month/6-month confirmed disability progression (3mCDP/6mCDP); 3-month confirmed ≥ 20% worsening in Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW); 6-month confirmed improvement/worsening in Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) scores (≥ 4-point change); T2 lesion volume (T2LV) change from baseline; number of T1 Gd + lesions baseline-month 24; number of new/enlarging (N/E) T2 lesions over all visits.

RESULTS

Data from 779 participants with aSPMS were analysed. Siponimod reduced risk of 3mCDP/6mCDP vs placebo (by 31%/37%, respectively; p < 0.01); there was no significant effect on T25FW. Siponimod increased likelihood of 6-month confirmed SDMT improvement vs placebo (by 62%; p = 0.007) and reduced risk of 6-month confirmed SDMT worsening (by 27%; p = 0.060). Siponimod was associated with less increase in T2LV (1316.3 vs 13.3 mm3; p < 0.0001), and fewer T1 Gd + and N/E T2 lesions than placebo (85% and 80% reductions, respectively; p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

In aSPMS, siponimod reduced risk of disability progression and was associated with benefits on cognition and MRI outcomes vs placebo.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01665144.

Longitudinal machine learning modeling of MS patient trajectories improves predictions of disability progression

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Research in Multiple Sclerosis (MS) has recently focused on extracting knowledge from real-world clinical data sources. This type of data is more abundant than data produced during clinical trials and potentially more informative about real-world clinical practice. However, this comes at the cost of less curated and controlled data sets. In this work we aim to predict disability progression by optimally extracting information from longitudinal patient data in the real-world setting, with a special focus on the sporadic sampling problem.

METHODS

We use machine learning methods suited for patient trajectories modeling, such as recurrent neural networks and tensor factorization. A subset of 6682 patients from the MSBase registry is used.

RESULTS

We can predict disability progression of patients in a two-year horizon with an ROC-AUC of 0.85, which represents a 32% decrease in the ranking pair error (1-AUC) compared to reference methods using static clinical features.

CONCLUSIONS

Compared to the models available in the literature, this work uses the most complete patient history for MS disease progression prediction and represents a step forward towards AI-assisted precision medicine in MS.

Brain atrophy and lesion burden are associated with disability progression in a multiple sclerosis real-world dataset using only T2-FLAIR: The NeuroSTREAM MSBase study

BACKGROUND

Methodological challenges limit the use of brain atrophy and lesion burden measures in the follow-up of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients on clinical routine datasets.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the feasibility of T2-FLAIR-only measures of lateral ventricular volume (LVV) and salient central lesion volume (SCLV), as markers of disability progression (DP) in MS.

METHODS

A total of 3,228 MS patients from 9 MSBase centers in 5 countries were enrolled. Of those, 2,875 (218 with clinically isolated syndrome, 2,231 with relapsing-remitting and 426 with progressive disease subtype) fulfilled inclusion and exclusion criteria. Patients were scanned on either 1.5 T or 3 T MRI scanners, and 5,750 brain scans were collected at index and on average after 42.3 months at post-index. Demographic and clinical data were collected from the MSBase registry. LVV and SCLV were measured on clinical routine T2-FLAIR images.

RESULTS

Longitudinal LVV and SCLV analyses were successful in 96% of the scans. 57% of patients had scanner-related changes over the follow-up. After correcting for age, sex, disease duration, disability, disease-modifying therapy and LVV at index, and follow-up time, MS patients with DP (n = 671) had significantly greater absolute LVV change compared to stable (n = 1,501) or disability improved (DI, n = 248) MS patients (2.0 mL vs. 1.4 mL vs. 1.1 mL, respectively, ANCOVA p < 0.001, post-hoc pair-wise DP vs. Stable p = 0.003; and DP vs. DI, p = 0.002). Similar ANCOVA model was also significant for SCLV (p = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

LVV-based atrophy and SCLV-based lesion outcomes are feasible on clinically acquired T2-FLAIR scans in a multicenter fashion and are associated with DP over mid-term.

Clinical effects associated with five-year retinal nerve fiber layer thinning in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Neurodegenerative changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) are associated with long-term disability progression (DP). Optical coherence tomography (OCT) measures may be used to monitor DP.

OBJECTIVE

To determine significant effects driving the changes in OCT-based peripapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (pRNFL) in heterogeneous group of MS patients.

METHODS

Total of 144 MS patients (109 relapsing-remitting MS and 35 progressive MS (PMS) with mean age at baseline of 47.6 and 56.5 years old, respectively) underwent clinical and OCT examination over 5-year follow-up. All OCT exams were reviewed using the OSCAR-IB criteria. The 5-year DP was determined based on Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) changes and MS clinical trial criteria. Data regarding previous history of MS optic neuritis (MSON) and use of disease modifying treatment (DMT) was derived by in-person interview and review of electronic medical records. Mixed model-type of repeated measure analysis determined effects driving pRNFL change for analysis which utilized all eyes separately.

RESULTS

Over an average of 5.3-years follow-up, the MS population demonstrated significant pRNFL thinning (F = 16.108, p < 0.001). The pRNFL thinning was greater due to progressive MS subtype (F = 5.102, p = 0.025), greater age at baseline (F = 4.554, p = 0.034), occurrence of DP (F = 6.583, p = 0.011), and previous history of MSON (F = 7.053, p = 0.008). Use of any or highly potent DMT (natalizumab versus first-line injectable treatments versus no DMT) significantly reduced the pRNFL thinning (F = 8.367, p = 0.004) over the follow-up. Lastly, occurrence of DP in PMS patients older than 50 years old was associated with greater pRNFL thinning (F = 6.667, p = 0.013).

CONCLUSION

Longitudinal pRNFL changes are modified by age, disease subtype, disabiltiy progression, history of MSON, DMT use and their interactions.

Quantifying disease pathology and predicting disease progression in multiple sclerosis with only clinical routine T2-FLAIR MRI

•

We explored five brain pathology measures from clinical-quality T2-FLAIR MRI in MS.

•

These included LVV, thalamus volume, MOV, SCLV and network efficiency.

•

T2-FLAIR measures predicted a majority of the variance in research-quality MRI.

•

T2-FLAIR measures correlated with neurologic disability and cognitive function.

•

T2-FLAIR measures predicted disability progression over five-years.

•

T2-FLAIR measures can be used in legacy clinical datasets.

Background

Although quantitative measures from research-quality MRI provide a means to study multiple sclerosis (MS) pathology in vivo, these metrics are often unavailable in legacy clinical datasets.

Objective

To determine how well an automatically-generated quantitative snapshot of brain pathology, measured only on clinical routine T2-FLAIR MRI, can substitute for more conventional measures on research MRI in terms of capturing multi-factorial disease pathology and providing similar clinical relevance.

Methods

MRI with both research-quality sequences and conventional clinical T2-FLAIR was acquired for 172 MS patients at baseline, and neurologic disability was assessed at baseline and five-years later. Five measures (thalamus volume, lateral ventricle volume, medulla oblongata volume, lesion volume, and network efficiency) for quantifying disparate aspects of neuropathology from low-resolution T2-FLAIR were applied to predict standard research-quality MRI measures. They were compared in regard to association with future neurologic disability and disease progression over five years.

Results

The combination of the five T2-FLAIR measures explained most of the variance in standard research-quality MRI. T2-FLAIR measures were associated with neurologic disability and cognitive function five-years later (R² = 0.279, p < 0.001; R² = 0.382, p < 0.001), similar to standard research-quality MRI (R² = 0.279, p < 0.001; R² = 0.366, p < 0.001). They also similarly predicted disability progression over five years (%-correctly-classified = 69.8, p = 0.034), compared to standard research-quality MRI (%-correctly-classified = 72.4%, p = 0.022) in relapsing-remitting MS.

Conclusion

A set of five T2-FLAIR-only measures can substitute for standard research-quality MRI, especially in relapsing-remitting MS. When only clinical T2-FLAIR is available, it can be used to obtain substantially more quantitative information about brain pathology and disability than is currently standard practice.

Machine learning classifier to identify clinical and radiological features relevant to disability progression in multiple sclerosis

Objectives

To evaluate the accuracy of a data-driven approach, such as machine learning classification, in predicting disability progression in MS.

Methods

We analyzed structural brain images of 163 subjects diagnosed with MS acquired at two different sites. Participants were followed up for 2–6 years, with disability progression defined according to the expanded disability status scale (EDSS) increment at follow-up. T2-weighted lesion load (T2LL), thalamic and cerebellar gray matter (GM) volumes, fractional anisotropy of the normal appearing white matter were calculated at baseline and included in supervised machine learning classifiers. Age, sex, phenotype, EDSS at baseline, therapy and time to follow-up period were also included. Classes were labeled as stable or progressed disability. Participants were randomly chosen from both sites to build a sample including 50% patients showing disability progression and 50% patients being stable. One-thousand machine learning classifiers were applied to the resulting sample, and after testing for overfitting, classifier confusion matrix, relative metrics and feature importance were evaluated.

Results

At follow-up, 36% of participants showed disability progression. The classifier with the highest resulting metrics had accuracy of 0.79, area under the true positive versus false positive rates curve of 0.81, sensitivity of 0.90 and specificity of 0.71. T2LL, thalamic volume, disability at baseline and administered therapy were identified as important features in predicting disability progression. Classifiers built on radiological features had higher accuracy than those built on clinical features.

Conclusions

Disability progression in MS may be predicted via machine learning classifiers, mostly evaluating neuroradiological features.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00415-021-10605-7.

Long-term outcome and predictors of long-term disease activity in natalizumab-treated patients with multiple sclerosis: real life data from the Austrian MS Treatment Registry

Objectives

To evaluate long-term effectiveness of natalizumab (NTZ) and to determine demographic, clinical, and radiological predictors regarding long-term disease activity (≥ 7 years) in a nationwide observational cohort, using data collected prospectively in a real-life setting.

Materials and methods

We analysed data from 230 patients from the Austrian Multiple Sclerosis Treatment Registry (AMSTR), who had started treatment with NTZ at any time since 2006 and stayed on NTZ for at least 7 years without treatment gap of more than three months.

Results

Estimated mean annualised relapse rates (ARR) over a mean treatment period of 9.3 years were 0.07 for NTZ. Sustained EDSS progression for 12 weeks was observed in 36 (19%) patients and for 24 weeks in 31 (16.3%) cases. Sustained EDSS regression for 12 and 24 weeks was seen in 45 (23.7%) and 42 (22.1%) cases. The baseline parameters ≥ 1 Gadolinium-enhancing MRI lesion(s) [incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.409 (95% CI 0.283–0.593), p = 0.001], ARR ≤ 1 in the prior 12 month before treatment initiation with NTZ [IRR of 0.353 (95% CI 0.200–0.623), p = 0.001] and EDSS ≤ 1 [incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.081 (95% CI 0.011–0.581), p = 0.012] were significantly associated with a reduced relapse risk, whereas a disease duration ≤ 5 years increased significantly the ARR [IRR of 1.851 (95% CI 1.249–2.743), p = 0.002]. The only predictive baseline parameter for experiencing EDSS progression (sustained for 12 and 24 weeks) was age > 35 years [HR of 2.482 (95% CI 1.110–5.549), p = 0.027, and HR of 2.492 (95% CI 1.039–5.978), p = 0.041, respectively].

Conclusions

These real-life data show a stable disease course regarding relapse activity and disease progression under NTZ treatment for more than 7 years. The main predictors for disease activity were higher relapse rate before treatment initiation, higher disability, shorter disease duration and absence of Gadolinium-enhancing MRI lesions at baseline. Older age at NTZ start was the only significant risk factor for disease progression over long-term.

Confirmed disability progression provides limited predictive information regarding future disease progression in multiple sclerosis

Background

Although confirmed disability progression (CDP) is a common outcome in multiple sclerosis (MS) clinical trials, its predictive value for long-term outcomes is uncertain.

Objective

To investigate whether CDP at month 24 predicts subsequent disability accumulation in MS.

Methods

The Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at Brigham and Women's Hospital includes participants with relapsing-remitting MS or clinically isolated syndrome with Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores ≤5 (N = 1214). CDP was assessed as a predictor of time to EDSS score 6 (EDSS 6) and to secondary progressive MS (SPMS) using a Cox proportional hazards model; adjusted models included additional clinical/participant characteristics. Models were compared using Akaike's An Information Criterion.

Results

CDP was directionally associated with faster time to EDSS 6 in univariate analysis (HR = 1.61 [95% CI: 0.83, 3.13]). After adjusting for month 24 EDSS, CDP was directionally associated with slower time to EDSS 6 (adjusted HR = 0.65 [0.32, 1.28]). Models including CDP had worse fit statistics than those using EDSS scores without CDP. When models included clinical and magnetic resonance imaging measures, T2 lesion volume improved fit statistics. Results were similar for time to SPMS.

Conclusions

CDP was less predictive of time to subsequent events than other MS clinical features.

Disability progression in multiple sclerosis is associated with plasma neuroactive steroid profile

BACKGROUND

Neuroactive steroids (NASs) exert multiple biological effects on development and inflammation. The effects of NASs on disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) are uncertain, prompting analyses of NAS profiles during the transition from clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) to relapsing-remitting (RR) MS.

METHODS

Subjects with CIS or RRMS and healthy controls (HCs) were recruited; demographic and clinical data as well as disability scores measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) were recorded. Matched plasma NAS and amino acid (AA) concentrations were measured.

RESULTS

HC (n = 17), CIS (n = 31), and RRMS (n = 33) groups showed similar ages and sex distribution although disability scores were higher in the RRMS group. The conversion rate of CIS to RRMS group was 51.6% (n = 16) during a mean follow-up period of 1.85 years. The RRMS group showed significantly higher mean allopregnanolone, aspartate, and taurine concentrations with lower epiallopregnanolone concentrations than CIS patients, and higher L-serine-O-phosphate and lower alanine, arginine, and glutamine concentrations than the HC group. Among CIS and RRMS groups, multivariate hierarchical regressions revealed that higher concentrations of plasma tetrahydrodeoxycorticosterone (THDOC) may predict disability worsening.

CONCLUSIONS

RRMS and CIS patients exhibited differing concentrations of both NASs and AAs in plasma while both THDOC and pregnanolone might serve as biomarkers of disability worsening.

Cortical fractal dimension predicts disability worsening in Multiple Sclerosis patients

BACKGROUND

Fractal geometry measures the morphology of the brain and detects CNS damage. We aimed to assess the longitudinal changes on brain's fractal geometry and its predictive value for disease worsening in patients with Multiple Sclerosis (MS).

METHODS

We prospectively analyzed 146 consecutive patients with relapsing-remitting MS with up to 5 years of clinical and brain MRI (3 T) assessments. The fractal dimension and lacunarity were calculated for brain regions using box-counting methods. Longitudinal changes were analyzed in mixed-effect models and the risk of disability accumulation were assessed using Cox Proportional Hazard regression analysis.

RESULTS

There was a significant decrease in the fractal dimension and increases of lacunarity in different brain regions over the 5-year follow-up. Lower cortical fractal dimension increased the risk of disability accumulation for the Expanded Disability Status Scale [HR 0.9734, CI 0.8420-0.9125; Harrell C 0.59; Wald p 0.038], 9-hole peg test [HR 0.9734, CI 0.8420-0.9125; Harrell C 0.59; Wald p 0.0083], 2.5% low contrast vision [HR 0.4311, CI 0.2035-0.9133; Harrell C 0.58; Wald p 0.0403], symbol digit modality test [HR 2.215, CI 1.043-4.705; Harrell C 0.65; Wald p 0.0384] and MS Functional Composite-4 [HR 0.55, CI 0.317-0.955; Harrell C 0.59; Wald p 0.0029].

CONCLUSIONS

Fractal geometry analysis of brain MRI identified patients at risk of increasing their disability in the next five years.

Short-term data on disease activity, cognition, mood, stigma and employment outcomes in a cohort of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis (UPPMS study)

BACKGROUND

Primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) has long been defined by progressive disability accrual in the absence of initial relapses. However, its underlying neurodegenerative process seems to be accompanied by central nervous system inflammation. A new classification defined multiple sclerosis courses according to clinical/radiological activity and progression. We provide further insight into PPMS activity according to this classification and other daily living aspects.

METHODS

This was a multicentre, prospective, cohort study including 55 adult patients with PPMS according to 2010 McDonald criteria, within ten years from neurologic symptom onset and not receiving disease-modifying therapies during the past six months, who were followed up for 12 months. The primary study endpoint was the percentage of patients with active disease based on clinical relapses and/or magnetic resonance activity. Disability progression, cognitive function, physical/psychological impact, depression symptoms, stigma and employment were secondary endpoints.

RESULTS

Eleven (25.6%) patients exhibited multiple sclerosis activity throughout the 12-month study follow-up. Fourteen showed non-active multiple sclerosis without progression, 11 non-active multiple sclerosis with progression, 6 active multiple sclerosis without progression and 4 active multiple sclerosis with progression; one patient with disease activity was not assessable for progression. Cognitive function scores remained unchanged or increased, disease physical impact was maintained and disease psychological impact significantly decreased. The proportion of patients with depression symptoms or stigma remained without significant changes as well as employment outcomes.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that one-fourth of PPMS patients may exhibit disease activity over one year, with disability progression in approximately one-third but without worsening of cognitive function, disease impact, depression, stigma or employment outcomes.

Identification and diagnosis of Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis during the clinical encounter: Results from a physician survey

BACKGROUND

It is difficult to characterize the transition from relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) to secondary progressive MS (SPMS), due to symptomatic variability across patients. Diagnosis of SPMS is prolonged and often established retrospectively, as it is based on patient clinical history and symptoms. This cross-sectional study aimed to identify MS neurologist reported clinical indicators deemed important in diagnosing SPMS in clinical practice.

METHODS

A web-based quantitative survey was conducted among MS-treating neurologists across the United States in January 2019. The questionnaire comprised of 17 questions evaluating primary clinical indicators used by neurologists in assessing patient progression to SPMS. Treatment approach and factors influencing treatment decision-making following SPMS diagnosis were also analyzed in the survey.

RESULTS

Overall, 300 neurologists completed the survey; most of the respondents were general MS-treating neurologists (63%) and from private care setting (58%). The overall respondents as well as MS-focused neurologists ranked patient history (45% and 42%, respectively) and patients' neurological exam (39% and 44%, respectively) as -primary clinical indicators of SPMS diagnosis. 57% of neurologists always or mostly switched disease modifying therapies after progression to SPMS, and mostly considered 3-6 months' assessment interval to diagnose SPMS.

CONCLUSION

The survey indicated that neurologists are able to recognize signs of SPMS within six months of symptomatic assessment. The diagnosis is primarily based on patient history among MS-treating neurologists. Therefore, continued education to neurologists may facilitate early diagnosis and timely introduction of effective treatment to manage the progression of SPMS.

Low vitamin D, but not tobacco use or high BMI, is associated with long-term disability progression in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Low vitamin D levels, tobacco use and high body mass index (BMI) have been linked to adverse disease outcomes in multiple sclerosis (MS), but their influence on long-term disability progression remains unclear. Therefore, we explored whether these modifiable lifestyle factors were associated with 10-year clinical disability progression in patients with MS.

METHODS

In this prospective study, a cohort of 88 patients with relapsing-remitting MS completed a randomized controlled study on ω-3 fatty acids between 2004 and 2008. During 24 months, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), serum cotinine (nicotine metabolite), and BMI were repeatedly measured. In 2017, a follow-up study was conducted among 80 of the participants, including disability assessment by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). Linear regression was used to explore associations between the lifestyle factors and the EDSS change over 10 years.

RESULTS

Higher seasonally adjusted 25(OH)D levels were associated with lower 10-year EDSS progression (change in EDSS per 1 SD increase in 25(OH)D in a model adjusted for sex, age and baseline EDSS: -0.45 point, 95% CI: -0.75 to -0.16, p=0.003). Further adjustments for potential confounders related to lifestyle and disease status gave similar results. The association was mainly driven by low 25(OH)D levels during spring, as well as seasonally adjusted levels below 80 nmol/L. No clear association was found for BMI and cotinine.

CONCLUSION

Lower 25(OH)D levels, but apparently not tobacco use or higher BMI, were significantly associated with worse long-term disability progression in MS.

MAGNIMS score predicts long-term clinical disease activity-free status and confirmed disability progression in patients treated with subcutaneous interferon beta-1a

BACKGROUND

Subcutaneous (sc) interferon (IFN) β-1a reduces relapse rates and delays disability progression in patients with MS. We examined the association of the year 1 Magnetic Resonance Imaging in MS (MAGNIMS) score with long-term clinical disease activity (CDA) -free status and confirmed disability progression in patients treated with sc IFN β-1a in PRISMS.

METHODS

Patients treated with sc IFN β-1a three-times-weekly (22 or 44 μg; pooled data) were classified by MAGNIMS score (0, n = 129; 1, n = 108; 2, n = 130) at year 1. Hazard ratios (HR; 95% confidence intervals [CI]) for risk of CDA and confirmed Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) progression were calculated by MAGNIMS score for up to 15 years of follow-up.

RESULTS

The risk of CDA was higher with a year 1 MAGNIMS score of 1 versus 0 (HR 1.82 [1.38-2.41]), 2 versus 0 (2.63 [2.01-3.45]) and 2 versus 1 (1.45 [1.11-1.89], all p < 0.0001). The same outcome was observed with the risk of confirmed EDSS progression (1 versus 0: 1.93 [1.23-3.02]; 2 versus 0: 2.95 [1.95-4.46]; 2 versus 1: 1.53 [1.05-2.23]; all p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

In PRISMS, MAGNIMS score at Year 1 predicted risk of CDA and confirmed disability progression in sc IFN β-1a-treated patients over up to 15 years. PRISMS-15 clinicaltrial.gov identifier: NCT01034644.

Clinical feasibility of longitudinal lateral ventricular volume measurements on T2-FLAIR across MRI scanner changes

•

Central and whole brain atrophy are faster in MS patients with disability progression.

•

These measures can be reliably assessed on clinically-available FLAIR images.

•

They are meaningful even with longitudinal scanner and field strength changes.

Background

Greater brain atrophy is associated with disability progression (DP) in patients with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). However, methodological challenges limit its routine clinical use.

Objective

To determine the feasibility of atrophy measures as markers of DP in PwMS scanned across different MRI field strengths.

Methods

A total of 980 PwMS were scanned on either 1.5 T or 3.0 T MRI scanners. Demographic and clinical data were retrospectively collected, and the presence of DP was determined according to standard clinical trial criteria. Lateral ventricular volume (LVV) change was measured with the NeuroSTREAM technique on clinical routine T2-FLAIR images. Percent brain volume change (PBVC) was measured using SIENA and ventricular cerebrospinal fluid (vCSF) % change was measured using VIENA and SIENAX algorithms on 3D T1-weighted images (WI). Stable vs. DP PwMS were compared using analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). Mixed modeling determined the effect of MRI scanner change on MRI-derived atrophy measures.

Results

Longitudinal LVV analysis was successful in all PwMS. SIENA-based PBVC and VIENA-based changes failed in 37.6% of cases, while SIENAX-based vCSF failed in 12.9% of cases. PwMS with DP (n = 241) had significantly greater absolute (20.9% vs. 8.7%, d = 0.66, p < 0.001) and annualized LVV % change (4.1% vs. 2.3%, d = 0.27, p < 0.001) when compared to stable PwMS (n = 739). In subjects with both analyses available, both 3D-T1 and T2-FLAIR-based analyses differentiated PwMS with DP (n = 149). However, only NeuroSTREAM and VIENA-based LVV/vCSF were able to show greater atrophy in PwMS that were scanned on different scanners. PBVC and SIENAX-based vCSF % changes were significantly affected by scanner change (Beta = −0.16, t-statistics = −2.133, p = 0.033 and Beta = −2.08, t-statistics = −4.084, p < 0.001), whereas no MRI scanner change effects on NeuroSTREAM-based PLVVC and VIENA-based vCSF % change were noted.

Conclusions

LVV-based atrophy on T2-FLAIR is a clinically relevant measure in spite of MRI scanner changes and mild disability levels.

Progression pattern of neurological disability with respect to clinical attacks in anti-MOG antibody-associated disorders

The progression pattern of neurological disability among patients with anti-myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein antibody-associated disorders (MOGAD) was evaluated. Neurological disability was evaluated annually for 408 person-years in 50 patients. More than 30% of the patients had clinical relapses in the first 5 years. Disability progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) was not seen, whereas a stepwise disability progression was observed after clinical attacks in some instances. Disability worsening was more frequent after relapses than after the onset episode (p < 0.01). Similar to patients with anti-aquaporin-4 antibodies, attack-related stepwise disability progression without PIRA is typical in MOGAD, suggesting the importance of relapse prevention.

Sex differences in brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Women are more susceptible to multiple sclerosis (MS) than men by a ratio of approximately 3:1. However, being male is a risk factor for worse disability progression. Inflammatory genes have been linked to susceptibility, while neurodegeneration underlies disability progression. Thus, there appears to be a differential effect of sex on inflammation versus neurodegeneration. Further, gray matter (GM) atrophy is not uniform across the brain in MS, but instead shows regional variation. Here, we study sex differences in neurodegeneration by comparing regional GM atrophy in a cohort of men and women with MS versus their respective age- and sex-matched healthy controls.

METHODS

Voxel-based morphometry (VBM), deep GM substructure volumetry, and cortical thinning were used to examine regional GM atrophy.

RESULTS

VBM analysis showed deep GM atrophy in the thalamic area in both men and women with MS, whereas men had additional atrophy in the putamen as well as in localized cortical regions. Volumetry confirmed deep GM loss, while localized cortical thinning confirmed GM loss in the cerebral cortex. Further, MS males exhibited worse performance on the 9-hole peg test (9HPT) than MS females. We observed a strong correlation between thalamic volume and 9HPT performance in MS males, but not in MS females.

CONCLUSION

More regional GM atrophy was observed in men with MS than women with MS, consistent with previous observations that male sex is a risk factor for worse disease progression.

Parity and disability progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

AIM

It is unclear whether parity and increasing parity are risk factors for long-term disability progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. Furthermore, data on the effects of immunomodulatory treatments in this context are limited.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the association between parity and long-term neurological sequela among relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients.

METHODS

A cohort study including all women with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in Israel registered in Sheba Medical Center Multiple Sclerosis data registry from 1995 to 2018. The risks of progression to moderate and severe disability according to parity after disease onset were evaluated. Cox regression models using childbirth as a time-dependent covariate were used to study the association between parity and disability progression.

RESULTS

During the 26,785 person-years of follow-up a total of 2281 women were included in the study. Parity was associated with decreased risk of progression to moderate (adj.HR, 0.68; 95% CI 0.54-0.85, P = 0.001) but not to severe disability (adj.HR, 0.88; 95% CI 0.68-1.14, P = 0.36). Hazard ratios for progression to moderate and severe disability were comparable between women with one, two, and three or more births. In a subgroup analysis of women who gave birth within 5 years of disease onset, immunomodulatory treatment did not affect moderate or severe disability-free survival.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that childbirth after the onset of multiple sclerosis is associated with a decreased risk of progression to moderate neurological disability.

Efficacy of andrographolide in not active progressive multiple sclerosis: a prospective exploratory double-blind, parallel-group, randomized, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic immune mediated disease and the progressive phase appears to have significant neurodegenerative mechanisms. The classification of the course of progressive MS (PMS) has been re-organized into categories of active vs. not active inflammatory disease and the presence vs. absence of gradual disease progression. Clinical trial experience to date in PMS with anti-inflammatory medications has shown limited effect. Andrographolide is a new class of anti-inflammatory agent, that has been proposed as a potential drug for autoimmune disorders, including MS. In the present trial, we perform an exploratory pilot study on the efficacy and safety of andrographolide (AP) compared to placebo in not active PMS.

METHODS

A pilot clinical trial using 140 mg oral AP or placebo twice daily for 24 months in patients with not active primary or secondary progressive MS was conducted. The primary efficacy endpoint was the mean percentage brain volume change (mPBVC). Secondary efficacy endpoints included 3-month confirmed disability progression (3-CDP) and mean EDSS change.

RESULTS

Forty-four patients were randomized: 23 were assigned to the AP group, and 21 were assigned to the placebo group. The median baseline EDSS of both groups was 6.0. Annualized mPBVC was - 0.679% for the AP group and - 1.069% for the placebo group (mean difference: -0.39; 95% CI [- 0.836-0.055], p = 0.08, relative reduction: 36.5%). In the AP group, 30% had 3-CDP compared to 41% in the placebo group (HR: 0.596; 95% CI [0.200-1.777], p = 0.06). The mean EDSS change was - 0.025 in the AP group and + 0.352 in the placebo group (mean difference: 0.63, p = 0.042). Adverse events related to AP were mild rash and dysgeusia.

CONCLUSIONS

AP was well tolerated and showed a potential effect in reducing brain atrophy and disability progression, that need to be further evaluated in a larger clinical trial.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02273635 retrospectively registered on October 24th, 2014.

Interferon β-1a subcutaneously 3 times/week clinical outcome in relapsing multiple sclerosis in Finland

Prognostic factors and long-term treatment response of interferon β-1a s.c tiw has not been studied in a real-life clinical cohort in Finland. The aim of the paper was to evaluate long-term treatment response, prognostic clinical factors and adherence among interferon β-1a s.c tiw treated patients in Finland. A retrospective review of medical records was performed. Confirmed relapsing multiple sclerosis patients treated with interferon β-1a s.c tiw 22μg or 44μg as their first treatment, from 1996 to 2010 in Western Finland, were included. Longitudinal generalized linear regression models were applied to assess risk of disability progression, using Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), during the treatment period. Odd’s ratios with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated for risk factors: gender, age at diagnosis, treatment delay, dose, baseline EDSS and EDSS change in one year. Kaplan-Meier was applied to study median time to discontinuation. Mean duration of treatment in 293 cases was 2.9 years (min 0.04, max 13.5). EDSS increase vs. no increase in one-year carried a significant risk for long-term disability progression (1.20, 1.08-1.33). Older age, defined by a 10-year increase in age at diagnosis (1.43, 1.07-1.91) and one-year delay to treatment start showed an increased risk for disability progression (1.05, 0.99-1.11), but gender (0.66, 0.38-1.15) or initial dose (1.00, 0.45-2.25) showed no risk. Treatment was stopped in 37% due to disease activation at median of 1.7 years, and in 25% due to side effects at 9.3 months. Our results show that young age, a short delay to treatment start and slower disability progression were identified as factors for better outcome among cases with interferon β-1a s.c tiw as their first disease modifying treatment.

No association between variations in extracranial venous anatomy and clinical outcomes in multiple sclerosis patients over 5 years

Background

No longitudinal, long-term, follow-up studies have explored the association between presence and severity of variations in extracranial venous anatomy, and clinical outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS).

Objective

This prospective 5-year follow-up study assessed the relationship of variations in extracranial venous anatomy, indicative of chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency (CCSVI) on Doppler sonography, according to the International Society for Neurovascular Disease (ISNVD) proposed consensus criteria, with clinical outcomes and disease progression in MS patients.

Methods

90 MS patients (52 relapsing-remitting, RRMS and 38 secondary-progressive, SPMS) and 38 age- and sex-matched HIs were prospectively followed for 5.5 years. Extracranial and transcranial Doppler-based venous hemodynamic assessment was conducted at baseline and follow-up to determine the extent of variations in extracranial venous anatomy. Change in Expanded Disability Status Scale (∆EDSS), development of disability progression (DP) and annualized relapse rate (ARR) were assessed.

Results

No significant differences were observed in MS patients, based on their presence of variations in extracranial venous anatomy at baseline or at the follow-up, in ∆EDSS, development of DP or ARR. While more MS patients had ISNVD CCSVI criteria fulfilled at baseline compared to HIs (58% vs. 37%, p = 0.03), no differences were found at the 5-year follow-up (61% vs. 56%, p = 0.486).

Discussion

This is the longest follow-up study assessing the longitudinal relationship between the presence of variations in extracranial venous anatomy and clinical outcomes in MS patients. Conclusion: The presence of variations in extracranial venous anatomy does not influence clinical outcomes over the 5-year follow-up in MS patients.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12883-019-1350-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Effect of different doses of gadolinium contrast agent on clinical outcomes in MS

Objective

The objective of this paper is to evaluate potential dose-dependent adverse effects of gadolinium-based contrast agents (GBCAs) on MS progression.

Methods

Outcomes from a cohort of 612 secondary progressive MS (SPMS) patients, enrolled in a two-year, placebo-controlled (negative) trial assessing the efficacy of MBP8298, were acquired. Patients received one to four (infrequent cohort; IFR) or 5–11 (frequent cohort; FR) GBCA injections between week 4 and week 104. The primary outcome was the change in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and time to confirmed EDSS progression. Secondary outcomes included the changes in the Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC), Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), 9-Hole-Peg Test (9HPT), and Paced Auditory Serial Addition Test (PASAT) from baseline to week 104.

Results

The 512 IFR and 100 FR participants showed no differences in baseline demographics or disease history. The mean change from baseline to week 104 in EDSS was +0.21 (IFR) and +0.13 (FR); MSFC –0.38 (IFR) and –0.14 (FR); T25FW +1.28 (IFR) and +0.55 (FR); 9HPT –0.06 (IFR) and –0.08 (FR); and PASAT +0.22 (IFR) and +0.20 (FR). The FR to IFR progression hazard ratio equaled 0.68 (p = 0.09). There were no significant differences in any of the outcomes between the two cohorts.

Conclusion

There were no differences in the disability progression measures between the two cohorts, indicating that gadolinium does not result in greater clinical worsening in SPMS after a two-year period.

Effect of interferon beta-1a subcutaneously three times weekly on clinical and radiological measures and no evidence of disease activity status in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis at year 1

Background

In the PRISMS study, interferon beta-1a subcutaneously (IFN β-1a SC) reduced clinical and radiological disease burden at 2 years in patients with relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. The study aimed to characterize efficacy of IFN β-1a SC 44 μg and 22 μg three times weekly (tiw) at Year 1.

Methods

Exploratory endpoints included annualized relapse rate (ARR), 3-month confirmed disability progression (1-point Expanded Disability Status Scale increase if baseline was < 6.0 [0.5-point if baseline was ≥6.0]), active T2 lesions, and no evidence of disease activity (NEDA; defined as no relapses [subanalyzed by relapse severity], 3-month confirmed progression, or active T2 lesions). Effect of IFN β-1a SC in prespecified patient subgroups was also assessed.

Results

Patients were randomized to IFN β-1a 22 μg (n = 189), 44 μg (n = 184), or placebo (n = 187). At 1 year, IFN β-1a SC tiw reduced ARR (p < 0.001), risk of disability progression (p ≤ 0.029), and mean number of active T2 lesions per patients per scan (p < 0.001) versus placebo. Clinical and radiological benefits were seen as early as Month 2 and 3. Outcomes in subgroups were consistent with those in the overall population. More patients treated with IFN β-1a SC tiw achieved NEDA status, versus placebo, regardless of relapse severity (p ≤ 0.006).

Conclusion

Clinical, radiological, and NEDA outcomes at Year 1 were consistent with Year 2 results. Treatment efficacy was consistent in pre-specified patient subgroups.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12883-018-1145-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

A regional consensus recommendation on brain atrophy as an outcome measure in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease characterized by inflammatory and neurodegenerative processes leading to irreversible neurological impairment. Brain atrophy occurs early in the course of the disease at a rate greater than the general population. Brain volume loss (BVL) is associated with disability progression and cognitive impairment in patients with MS; hence its value as a potential target in monitoring and treating MS is discussed.

METHODS

A group of MS neurologists and neuro-radiologists reviewed the current literature on brain atrophy and discussed the challenges in assessing and implementing brain atrophy measurements in clinical practice. The panel used a voting system to reach a consensus and the votes were counted for the proposed set of questions for cognitive and brain atrophy assessments.

RESULTS

The panel of experts was able to identify recent studies, which demonstrated the correlation between BVL and future worsening of disability and cognition. The current evidence revealed that reduction of BVL could be achieved with different disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). BVL provided a better treatment and monitoring strategy when it is combined to the composite measures of "no evidence of disease activity" (NEDA). The panel recommended a set of cognitive assessment tools and MRI methods and software applications that may help in capturing and measuring the underlying MS pathology with high degree of specificity.

CONCLUSION

BVL was considered to be a useful measurement to longitudinally assess disease progression and cognitive function in patients with MS. Brain atrophy measurement was recommended to be incorporated into the concept of NEDA. Consequently, a consensus recommendation was reached in anticipation for implementation of the use of cognitive assessment and brain atrophy measurements on a regional level.

Short-term MRI measurements as predictors of EDSS progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: grey matter atrophy but not lesions are predictive in a real-life setting

BACKGROUND

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the best biomarker of inflammatory disease activity in relapsing remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) so far but the association with disability is weak. Appearance of new MRI-lesions is used to evaluate response to immunotherapies in individual patients as well as being the most common primary outcome in phase-2 trials. Measurements of brain atrophy show promising outcomes in natural cohort studies and some phase-2 trials. From a theoretical perspective they might represent irreversible neurodegeneration and be more closely associated with disability. However, these atrophy measurements are not yet established as prognostic factors in real-life clinical routine. High field MRI has improved image quality and resolution and new methods to measure atrophy dynamics have become available.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the predictive value of MRI classification criteria in to high/low atrophy and inflammation groups, and to explore predictive capacity of two consecutive routine MRI scans for disability progression in RRMS in a real-life prospective cohort.

METHODS

82 RRMS-patients (40 untreated, 42 treated with immunotherapies, mean age 40 years, median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) of 2, underwent two clinically indicated MRI scans (3 Tesla) within 5-14 months, and EDSS assessment after a mean of 3.0 (1.5-4.2) years. We investigated the predictive value of predefined classifications in low/high inflammatory and atrophy groups for EDSS progression (≥1.5 if baseline EDSS = 0, ≥1.0 if baseline EDSS <5, ≥0.5 for other) by chi-square tests and by analysis of variance (ANOVA). The classifications were based on current scientific or clinical recommendation (e.g., treatment response criteria). Brain atrophy was assessed with three different methods (SIENA, SIENAX, and FreeSurfer). Post-hoc analyses aimed to explore clinical data and dynamics of MRI outcomes as predictors in multivariate linear and logit models.

RESULTS

Progression was observed in 24% of patients and was independent from treatment status. None of the predefined classifications were predictive for progression. Explorative post-hoc analyses found lower baseline EDSS and higher grey matter atrophy (FreeSurfer) as best predictors (R (2) = 0.29) for EDSS progression and the accuracy was overall good (Area under the curve = 0.81).

CONCLUSION

Beside EDSS at baseline, short-term grey matter atrophy is predictive for EDSS progression in treated and untreated RRMS. The development of atrophy measurements for individual risk counselling and evaluation of treatment response seems possible, but needs further validation in larger cohorts. MRI-atrophy estimates from the FreeSurfer toolbox seem to be more reliable than older methods.

ApaI, BsmI and TaqI VDR gene polymorphisms in association with multiple sclerosis in Slovaks

OBJECTIVE

Vitamin D acts through vitamin D receptor (VDR) and has promising beneficial effects in the development and progression of multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of our study was to investigate the possible association of the VDR gene polymorphisms ApaI, BsmI and TaqI with the MS susceptibility and with the rate of disease disability progression in the Central European Slovak population.

METHODS

The allele and genotype variants of ApaI, TaqI and BsmI VDR gene polymorphisms were analysed in 270 clinically diagnosed MS patients and 303 healthy controls. Genotyping was performed by polymerase chain reaction and restriction analysis. Patients were stratified by the rate of disease disability progression using MSSS scores.

RESULTS

By logistic regression analysis, we revealed that genotype BB (AA) of BsmI VDR gene polymorphism is decreasing the risk of MS (BB (AA) vs Bb (AG) + bb (GG); OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.39-0.90, plog = 0.014). We did not identify any association of ApaI and TaqI polymorphisms neither with MS development nor with the disease progression.

DISCUSSION

We showed for the first time that BsmI genotype BB (AA) is associated with the decreased susceptibility to MS in Slovak population. We propose the BsmI gene polymorphism to be one of the important genetic markers in evaluation of the risk of MS. However, our data suggest that VDR gene polymorphisms ApaI, BsmI and TaqI are not useful in the prediction of disease disability progression rate in MS in Slovaks.

Comparative efficacy of disease-modifying therapies for patients with relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis: Systematic review and network meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Randomised studies have demonstrated efficacy of disease-modifying therapies in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). However it is unclear how the magnitude of treatment efficacy varies across all currently available therapies.

OBJECTIVE

To perform a systematic review and network meta-analysis to evaluate the comparative efficacy of available therapies in reducing relapses and disability progression in RRMS.

METHODS

A systematic review identified 28 randomised, placebo-controlled and direct comparative trials. A network meta-analysis was conducted within a Bayesian framework to estimate comparative annualised relapse rates (ARR) and risks of disability progression (defined by both a 3-month, and 6-month confirmation interval). Potential sources of treatment-effect modification from study-level covariates and baseline risk were evaluated through meta-regression methods. The Surface Under the Cumulative RAnking curve (SUCRA) method was used to provide a ranking of treatments for each outcome.

RESULTS

The magnitude of ARR reduction varied between 15-36% for all interferon-beta products, glatiramer acetate and teriflunomide, and from 50 to 69% for alemtuzumab, dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod and natalizumab. The risk of disability progression (3-month) was reduced by 19-28% with interferon-beta products, glatiramer acetate, fingolimod and teriflunomide, by 38-45% for pegylated interferon-beta, dimethyl fumarate and natalizumab and by 68% with alemtuzumab. Broadly similar estimates for the risk of disability progression (6-month), with the exception of interferon-beta-1b 250mcg which was much more efficacious based on this definition. Alemtuzumab and natalizumab had the highest SUCRA scores (97% and 95% respectively) for ARR, while ranking for disability progression varied depending on the definition of the outcome. Interferon-beta-1b 250mcg ranked among the most efficacious treatments for disability progression confirmed after six months (92%) and among the least efficacious when the outcome was confirmed after three months (30%). No significant modification of relative treatment effects was identified from study-level covariates or baseline risk.

CONCLUSION

Compared with placebo, clear reductions in ARR with disease-modifying therapies were accompanied by more uncertain changes in disability progression. The magnitude of the reduction and the uncertainty associated with treatment effects varied between DMTs. While natalizumab and alemtuzumab demonstrated consistently high ranking across outcomes, with older interferon-beta and glatiramer acetate products ranking lowest, variation in disability progression definitions lead to variation in the relative ranking of treatments. Rigorously conducted comparative studies are required to fully evaluate the comparative treatment effects of disease modifying therapies for RRMS.

Relationship between symptom change, relapse activity and disability progression in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Symptom changes may serve as a risk factor for relapse activity (RA) and disability progression (DP), which could facilitate multiple sclerosis (MS) treatment decisions.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the relationship of symptom change with RA and DP.

METHODS

We evaluated the relationship of symptom change with subsequent RA and DP using NARCOMS registry data reported over a five-year period. Symptom change was evaluated using both symptom worsening (SW) and average of Performance Scales (APS) scores. Disability progression was defined as a one-point or more increase in Patient-Determined Disease Steps (PDDS) score between two consecutive updates. Repeated measures logistic regression was used to investigate the relationship between symptom change and RA and DP.

RESULTS

SW and APS were both significant predictors of subsequent RA and DP. Both SW and APS have a significant interaction with levels of disability (Mildly Impaired versus Highly Impaired) for the prediction of the subsequent RA or DP. For Mildly Impaired MS subjects, both SW and APS were significant predictors of both RA and DP. However, for Highly Impaired MS subjects, SW did not significantly predict future RA and neither SW nor APS predicted disability progression.

CONCLUSION

Changes in self-reported overall symptomatology may precede and predict clinical relapse and future disability progression. The predictive power of symptom changes may only be present at lower levels of disability.

Long-term impact of interferon or Glatiramer acetate in multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In recent years the impact of disease-modifying drugs on long-term progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) was assessed both in observational studies and in extension of randomized controlled trial (RCT). Aim of this work was to quantitatively summarize by a meta-analysis the long-term impact of immunomodulatory drugs (Interferon-Beta (IFN-β) or Glatiramer Acetate (GA)) in relapsing-remitting (RR) MS patients.

METHODS

We collected all published observational studies reporting the long-term efficacy of IFN-β or GA in RRMS patients. The primary outcome was the treatment effect on progression to a sustained EDSS score of 6 or to the Secondary Progressive (SP) phase. A non-parametric approach was adopted to test the overall treatment effect significance, while a random effect model was used to obtain a pooled quantitative estimate of the treatment benefit, in terms of hazard-ratios (HR) or Relative Risks, with their 95% confidence interval (CI).

RESULTS

Fourteen studies, on a total of 13,238 RRMS patients, were included in the meta-analysis. All studies but two reported a consistent effect of immunomodulatory treatment on long-term disease progression; the pooled effect on progression to EDSS 6 or SP was significant (p<0.01) when tested by the non-parametric test. The quantitative estimate of the treatment effect in reducing progression to EDSS 6 in the subset of studies reporting this outcome was HRpooled=0.49 (95% CI: 0.34-0.69), p<0.001.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment with immunomodulators seems to reduce long-term probability of disability progression. Additional well-designed observational studies could help to confirm these findings.

The relationship between the rate of brain volume loss during first 24 months and disability progression over 24 and 48 months in relapsing MS

Clinical evidence in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis suggests an association between MRI outcome measures and disability progression (DP). Post hoc analysis to investigate the association and potential predictive value of brain volume loss (BVL) with long-term DP in FREEDOMS. Patients were categorized into quartiles by SIENA-calculated percent brain volume change from baseline to month (M) 24. Patient characteristics at baseline were determined for each quartile, as were the proportions of patients at M24 and M48 reaching Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores of ≥4.0 or ≥6.0 or DP confirmed at 3 months (CDP3) or 6 months (CDP6), and change in EDSS and Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite. MS disease activity and severity as well as brain volume at baseline were predictive of subsequent BVL over 24 months. The quartiles of patients with greater BVL at 24 months were at highest risk (odds ratio, p value) for reaching EDSS ≥4 (2.8, p = 0.001) or ≥6 (5.73, p = 0.0005) and experienced more DP at M24 (CDP3 2.13, p = 0.002; CDP6 2.17, p = 0.003) and M48 (CDP3 1.98, p = 0.006; CDP6 1.87, p = 0.018) compared to the quartile of patients with the least amount of BVL. These findings confirm the clinical relevance of early brain volume changes for long-term DP.

The effect of B-cell depletion in the Theiler's model of multiple sclerosis

B cell depletion (BCD) is being considered as a treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS), but there are many uncertainties surrounding the use of this therapy, such as its potential effect in individuals with concurrent viral infections. We sought to discover what effect BCD, induced by an anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody, would have on Theiler's murine encephalomyelitis virus-induced demyelinating disease (TMEV-IDD). Mice were injected with the anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody 5D2, 14 days before or 14 days after infection with TMEV. Efficacy of depletion of B cells was assessed by flow cytometry of CD19(+) cells. Mouse disability was measured by Rotarod, viral load was measured by real time PCR for TMEV RNA. Binding and neutralizing antibody levels were determined in sera and CSF by ELISA, and in CNS by real time PCR for IgG RNA. Inflammation, microglial activation, axonal damage and demyelination were assessed using immunohistochemistry. 5D2-induced BCD was confirmed by demonstration of nearly absent CD19(+) cells in the blood and lymphoid tissue. Systemic and CNS antibody responses were suppressed during 5D2 treatment. Higher viral loads were detected in 5D2-treated mice than in controls, and the viral levels correlated negatively with IgG production in the brain. Overall, 5D2 caused worsening of the early encephalitis and faster progression of disability, as well as exacerbation of the pathology of TMEV-IDD at the end stage of the disease. These data indicate that BCD in humans might worsen CNS viral infections and might not improve disability accrual in MS.

Levels of soluble TNF-RII are increased in serum of patients with primary progressive multiple sclerosis

The levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor II (sTNF-RII) were determined in serum of 161 untreated multiple sclerosis (MS) patients with different clinical forms and 46 healthy controls (HC) by ELISA. Our results show that serum sTNF-RII levels were significantly increased in patients with primary progressive MS (PPMS) compared with other MS forms and HC. Although sTNF-RII levels significantly increased over a 2-year follow-up period in a subgroup of PPMS patients, they could not discriminate between patients with and without disability progression. Additional studies are needed to further implicate sTNF-RII in patients with PPMS.