Comparative Effectiveness of Natalizumab, Fingolimod, and Injectable Therapies in Pediatric-Onset Multiple Sclerosis: A Registry-Based Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Patients with pediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) typically experience higher levels of inflammation with more frequent relapses, and though patients with POMS usually recover from relapses better than adults, patients with POMS reach irreversible disability at a younger age than adult-onset patients. There have been few randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trials of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) in patients with POMS, and most available data are based on observational studies of off-label use of DMTs approved for adults. We assessed the effectiveness of natalizumab compared with fingolimod using injectable platform therapies as a reference in pediatric patients in the global MSBase registry.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients with POMS who initiated treatment with an injectable DMT, natalizumab, or fingolimod between January 1, 2006, and May 3, 2021. Patients were matched using inverse probability treatment weighting. The primary outcome was time to first relapse from index therapy initiation. Secondary study outcomes included annualized relapse rate; proportions of relapse-free patients at 1, 2, and 5 years; time to treatment discontinuation; and times to 24-week confirmed disability worsening and confirmed disability improvement.

RESULTS

A total of 1,218 patients with POMS were included in this analysis. Patients treated with fingolimod had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated with injectable DMTs (hazard ratio [HR], 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.29-0.83; p = 0.008). After adjustment for prior DMT experience in the unmatched sample, patients treated with natalizumab had a significantly lower risk of relapse than patients treated either with injectable DMTs (HR, 0.15; 95% CI 0.07-0.31; p < 0.001) or fingolimod (HR, 0.37; 95% CI 0.14-1.00; p = 0.049). The adjusted secondary study outcomes were generally consistent with the primary outcome or with previous observations. The findings in the inverse probability treatment weighting-adjusted patient populations were confirmed in multiple sensitivity analyses.

DISCUSSION

Our analyses of relapse risk suggest that natalizumab is more effective than fingolimod in the control of relapses in this population with high rates of new inflammatory activity, consistent with previous studies of natalizumab and fingolimod in adult-onset patients and POMS. In addition, both fingolimod and natalizumab were more effective than first-line injectable therapies.

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides Class II evidence that patients with POMS treated with natalizumab had a lower risk of relapse than those with fingolimod.

Big Multiple Sclerosis Data network: an international registry research network

BACKGROUND

The Big Multiple Sclerosis Data (BMSD) network ( https://bigmsdata.org ) was initiated in 2014 and includes the national multiple sclerosis (MS) registries of the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Italy, and Sweden as well as the international MSBase registry. BMSD has addressed the ethical, legal, technical, and governance-related challenges for data sharing and so far, published three scientific papers on pooled datasets as proof of concept for its collaborative design.

DATA COLLECTION

Although BMSD registries operate independently on different platforms, similarities in variables, definitions and data structure allow joint analysis of data. Certain coordinated modifications in how the registries collect adverse event data have been implemented after BMSD consensus decisions, showing the ability to develop together.

DATA MANAGEMENT

Scientific projects can be proposed by external sponsors via the coordinating centre and each registry decides independently on participation, respecting its governance structure. Research datasets are established in a project-to-project fashion and a project-specific data model is developed, based on a unifying core data model. To overcome challenges in data sharing, BMSD has developed procedures for federated data analysis.

FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

Presently, BMSD is seeking a qualification opinion from the European Medicines Agency (EMA) to conduct post-authorization safety studies (PASS) and aims to pursue a qualification opinion also for post-authorization effectiveness studies (PAES). BMSD aspires to promote the advancement of real-world evidence research in the MS field.

No evidence for association between rs10191329 severity locus and longitudinal disease severity in 1813 relapse-onset multiple sclerosis patients from the MSBase registry

BACKGROUND

The International Multiple Sclerosis Genetics Consortium and MultipleMS Consortium recently reported a genetic variant associated with multiple sclerosis (MS) severity. However, it remains unclear if these variants remain associated with more robust, longitudinal measures of disease severity.

METHODS

We examined the top variant, rs10191329, from Harroud et al.'s study in 1813 relapse-onset MS patients from the MSBase Registry to assess association with longitudinal disease severity.

RESULTS

Our analysis revealed no significant association between rs10191329 genotype and longitudinal binary disease severity (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSION

These findings highlight the complexity of genetic factors mediating long-term MS outcomes and the need for further research.

Comparing ocrelizumab to interferon/glatiramer acetate in people with multiple sclerosis over age 60

BACKGROUND

Ongoing controversy exists regarding optimal management of disease modifying therapy (DMT) in older people with multiple sclerosis (pwMS). There is concern that the lower relapse rate, combined with a higher risk of DMT-related infections and side effects, may alter the risk-benefit balance in older pwMS. Given the lack of pwMS above age 60 in randomised controlled trials, the comparative efficacy of high-efficacy DMTs such as ocrelizumab has not been shown in older pwMS. We aimed to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of ocrelizumab, a high-efficacy DMT, versus interferon/glatiramer acetate (IFN/GA) in pwMS over the age of 60.

METHODS

Using data from MSBase registry, this multicentre cohort study included pwMS above 60 who switched to or started on ocrelizumab or IFN/GA. We analysed relapse and disability outcomes after balancing covariates using an inverse probability treatment weighting (IPTW) method. Propensity scores were obtained based on age, country, disease duration, sex, baseline Expanded Disability Status Scale, prior relapses (all-time, 12 months and 24 months) and prior DMT exposure (overall number and high-efficacy DMTs). After weighting, all covariates were balanced. Primary outcomes were time to first relapse and annualised relapse rate (ARR). Secondary outcomes were 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP) and confirmed disability improvement (CDI).

RESULTS

A total of 248 participants received ocrelizumab, while 427 received IFN/GA. The IPTW-weighted ARR for ocrelizumab was 0.01 and 0.08 for IFN/GA. The IPTW-weighted ARR ratio was 0.15 (95% CI 0.06 to 0.33, p<0.001) for ocrelizumab compared with IFN/GA. On IPTW-weighted Cox regression models, HR for time to first relapse was 0.13 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.26, p<0.001). The hazard of first relapse was significantly reduced in ocrelizumab users after 5 months compared with IFN/GA users. However, the two groups did not differ in CDP or CDI over 3.57 years.

CONCLUSION

In older pwMS, ocrelizumab effectively reduced relapses compared with IFN/GA. Overall relapse activity was low. This study adds valuable real-world data for informed DMT decision making with older pwMS. Our study also confirms that there is a treatment benefit in older people with MS, given the existence of a clear differential treatment effect between ocrelizumab and IFN/GA in the over 60 age group.

COVID-19 vaccination and relapse activity: A nationwide cohort study of patients with multiple sclerosis in Denmark

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

We evaluated whether there was a difference in the occurrence of relapses pre- and post-COVID-19 vaccination in a nationwide cohort of Danish patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based, nationwide cohort study with a cutoff date of 1 October 2022. We used McNemar tests to assess changes in the proportion of patients with recorded relapses within 90 days and 180 days before and after first vaccine dose, and a negative binomial regression model to compare the 90 and 180 days postvaccination annualized relapse rate (ARR) to the 360 days prevaccination ARR. Multivariate Cox regression was used to estimate relapse risk factors.

RESULTS

We identified 8169 vaccinated (87.3% Comirnaty) patients without a recorded history of a positive COVID-19 test. We did not find statistically significant changes in the proportion of patients with relapses in the 90 days (1.3% vs. 1.4% of patients, p = 0.627) and 180 days (2.7% vs. 2.6% of patients, p = 0.918) pre- and postvaccination. Also, a comparison of the ARR 360 days before (0.064, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.058-0.070) with the ARR 90 (0.057, 95% CI = 0.047-0.069, p = 0.285) and 180 (0.055, 95% CI = 0.048-0.063, p = 0.060) days after vaccination did not show statistically significant differences. Lower age, higher Expanded Disability Status Scale score, and relapse within 360 days before vaccination were associated with a higher risk of relapse.

CONCLUSIONS

We did not find evidence of increased relapse activity following the administration of the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

Effectiveness of tixagevimab/cilgavimab (Evusheld) in antiCD20‑treated patients with multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder

BACKGROUND

AntiCD20 therapy, such as rituximab, ocrelizumab, or ofatumumab, effectively treats patients with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) or neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (pwNMOSD) but negatively affects the humoral immune response to COVID-19 vaccination. One strategy to protect these patients is using tixagevimab/cilgavimab (T/C) as pre-exposure prophylaxis. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of T/C on the incidence of COVID-19 in pwMS and pwNMOSD.

METHODS

Data in this observational cohort study were collected in two Czech MS centres through ReMuS registry between March 1, 2020 and December 31, 2022. Adult pwMS and pwNMOSD who were (1) treated with antiCD20 therapy at least six months before T/C administration, or at least from February 1, 2022 in the control group; (2) were already on antiCD20 therapy at the time of vaccination or COVID-19 infection; and (3) were on antiCD20 therapy at least 100 days after T/C, or at least 90 days after August 1, 2022 in the control group, were included. Analysis was performed using frequency-based (propensity score matching) and Bayesian statistical methods (informative and non-informative priors).

RESULTS

Using propensity score matching 1:1, 47 patients who received T/C (mean age 45.7 years, median disease duration 12.5 years) were matched with those who did not receive T/C (n = 341; mean age 46.6 years, median disease duration 11.4 years) based on age, MS/NMOSD duration, and number of vaccine doses. None of the T/C patients and three in the control matched group, developed COVID-19 between 10 and 100 days after receiving T/C, August 1, 2022, respectively. The frequency of COVID-19 was not significantly different between groups (p = 0.242). Due to the low number of patients, a Bayesian analysis was also added. Using a non-informative Bayesian prior, the median relative risk of COVID-19 after T/C was 7.6 % (95 % CrI 0.02-115.9 %). The posterior probability of risk difference lower than zero was 96.4 %. Using an informative prior (based on the registration study of Evusheld), the median relative risk of COVID-19 after T/C was 20.2 % (95 % CI 8.4-43.8 %). The posterior probability of the risk difference lower than zero was 100 %.

CONCLUSION

This work highlights the possible good efficacy of T/C in antiCD20-treated pwMS and pwNMSOD. Based on Bayesian analysis with an informative prior, the T/C group's risk of COVID-19 infection was approximately 20.2 % of the control group's risk. However, given the low frequency of COVID-19, the results of this pilot analysis must be interpreted with caution.

Long-term clinical outcomes in patients with multiple sclerosis who are initiating disease-modifying therapy with natalizumab compared with BRACETD first-line therapies

Background

Aggressive disease control soon after multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis may prevent irreversible neurological damage, and therefore early initiation of a high-efficacy disease-modifying therapy (DMT) is of clinical relevance.

Objectives

Evaluate long-term clinical outcomes in patients with MS who initiated treatment with either natalizumab or a BRACETD therapy (interferon beta, glatiramer acetate, teriflunomide, or dimethyl fumarate).

Design

This retrospective analysis utilized data from MSBase to create a matched population allowing comparison of first-line natalizumab to first-line BRACETD.

Methods

This study included patients who initiated treatment either with natalizumab or a BRACETD DMT within 1 year of MS diagnosis and continued treatment for ⩾6 months, after which patients could switch DMTs or discontinue treatment. Patients had a minimum follow-up time of ⩾60 months from initiation. A subgroup analysis compared the natalizumab group to patients in the BRACETD group who escalated therapy after 6 months. Outcomes included unadjusted annualized relapse rates (ARRs), time-to-first relapse, time-to-first confirmed disability improvement (CDI), and time-to-first confirmed disability worsening (CDW).

Results

After 1:1 propensity score matching, 355 BRACETD patients were matched to 355 natalizumab patients. Patients initiating natalizumab were less likely to experience a relapse over the duration of follow-up, with ARRs [95% confidence interval (CI)] of 0.080 (0.070-0.092) for natalizumab patients and 0.191 (0.178-0.205) for BRACETD patients (p < 0.0001). A Cox regression model of time-to-first relapse showed a reduced risk of relapse for natalizumab patients [hazard ratio (95% CI) of 0.52 (0.42-0.65); p < 0.001] and a more favorable time-to-first CDI. The risk of CDW was similar between groups. The subgroup analysis showed an increased relapse risk as well as a significantly higher risk of CDW for BRACETD patients.

Conclusion

Early initiation of natalizumab produced long-term benefits in relapse outcomes in comparison with BRACETD, regardless of a subsequent escalation in therapy.

Tract-wise microstructural analysis informs on current and future disability in early multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

Microstructural characterization of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) has been shown to correlate better with disability compared to conventional radiological biomarkers. Quantitative MRI provides effective means to characterize microstructural brain tissue changes both in lesions and normal-appearing brain tissue. However, the impact of the location of microstructural alterations in terms of neuronal pathways has not been thoroughly explored so far. Here, we study the extent and the location of tissue changes probed using quantitative MRI along white matter (WM) tracts extracted from a connectivity atlas.

METHODS

We quantified voxel-wise T1 tissue alterations compared to normative values in a cohort of 99 MS patients. For each WM tract, we extracted metrics reflecting tissue alterations both in lesions and normal-appearing WM and correlated these with cross-sectional disability and disability evolution after 2 years.

RESULTS

In early MS patients, T1 alterations in normal-appearing WM correlated better with disability evolution compared to cross-sectional disability. Further, the presence of lesions in supratentorial tracts was more strongly associated with cross-sectional disability, while microstructural alterations in infratentorial pathways yielded higher correlations with disability evolution. In progressive patients, all major WM pathways contributed similarly to explaining disability, and correlations with disability evolution were generally poor.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that microstructural changes evaluated in specific WM pathways contribute to explaining future disability in early MS, hence highlighting the potential of tract-wise analyses in monitoring disease progression. Further, the proposed technique allows to estimate WM tract-specific microstructural characteristics in clinically compatible acquisition times, without the need for advanced diffusion imaging.

Brain MRI disease burden and sex differences in cognitive performance of patients with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Although there is evidence that shows worse cognitive functioning in male patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), the role of brain pathology in this context is under-investigated.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate sex differences in cognitive performance of MS patients, in the context of brain pathology and disease burden.

METHODS

Brain MRI, neurological examination, neuropsychological assessment (Brief International Cognitive Assessment in MS-BICAMS, and Paced Auditory Verbal Learning Test-PASAT), and patient-reported outcome questionnaires were performed/administered in 1052 MS patients.

RESULTS

Females had higher raw scores in the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT) (57.0 vs. 54.0; p < 0.001) and Categorical Verbal Learning Test (CVLT) (63.0 vs. 57.0; p < 0.001), but paradoxically, females evaluated their cognitive performance by MS Neuropsychological Questionnaire as being worse (16.6 vs 14.5, p = 0.004). Females had a trend for a weaker negative correlation between T2 lesion volume and SDMT ([Formula: see text] = - 0.37 in females vs. - 0.46 in men; interaction p = 0.038). On the other hand, women had a trend for a stronger correlation between Brain Parenchymal Fraction (BPF) and a visual memory test (Spearman's [Formula: see text] = 0.31 vs. 0.21; interaction p = 0.016). All these trends were not significant after correction for false discovery rate.

CONCLUSIONS

Although, females consider their cognition as worse, males had at a group level slightly worse verbal memory and information processing speed. However, the sex differences in cognitive performance were smaller than the variability of scores within the same sex group. Brain MRI measures did not explain the sex differences in cognitive performance among MS patients.

Emulating randomised clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis with non-randomised real-world evidence: an application using data from the MSBase Registry

BACKGROUND

To mimic as closely as possible a randomised controlled trial (RCT) and calibrate the real-world evidence (RWE) studies against a known treatment effect would be helpful to understand if RWE can support causal conclusions in selected circumstances. The aim was to emulate the TRANSFORMS trial comparing Fingolimod (FTY) versus intramuscular interferon β-1a (IFN) using observational data.

METHODS

We extracted from the MSBase registry all the patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) collected in the period 2011-2021 who received IFN or FTY (0.5 mg) and with the same inclusion and exclusion criteria of the TRANSFORMS RCT. The primary endpoint was the annualised relapse rate (ARR) over 12 months. Patients were 1:1 propensity-score (PS) matched. Relapse-rate ratio (RR) was calculated by mean of a negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

A total of 4376 patients with RRMS (1140 in IFN and 3236 in FTY) were selected. After PS, 856 patients in each group were matched. The ARR was 0.45 in IFN and 0.25 in FTY with a significant difference between the two groups (RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.45 to 0.68; p<0.001). The result of the emulation was very similar and fell within the 95% CI of that observed in the RCT (RR: 0.49, 95% CI: 0.37 to 0.64; p<0.001) with a standardised difference of 0.66 (p=0.51).

CONCLUSIONS

By applying the same inclusion and exclusion criteria used in the RCT and employing appropriate methodology, we successfully replicated the RCT results with only minor discrepancies. Also, even if the confounding bias cannot be fully eliminated, conducting a rigorous target trial emulation could still yield valuable insights for comparative effectiveness research.

Comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the United Kingdom

AIM

To evaluate the real-world comparative effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness, from a UK National Health Service perspective, of natalizumab versus fingolimod in patients with rapidly evolving severe relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RES-RRMS).

METHODS

Real-world data from the MSBase Registry were obtained for patients with RES-RRMS who were previously either naive to disease-modifying therapies or had been treated with interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide (collectively known as BRACETD). Matched cohorts were selected by 3-way multinomial propensity score matching, and the annualized relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M) were compared between treatment groups. Comparative effectiveness results were used in a cost-effectiveness model comparing natalizumab and fingolimod, using an established Markov structure over a lifetime horizon with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Additional model data sources included the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available sources.

RESULTS

In the comparative effectiveness analysis, we found a significantly lower ARR for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (rate ratio [RR] = 0.65; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.57-0.73) or BRACETD (RR = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.42-0.53). Similarly, CDI6M was higher for patients starting natalizumab compared with fingolimod (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.01-1.55) and BRACETD (HR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.16-1.85). In patients starting fingolimod, we found a lower ARR (RR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.65-0.80) compared with starting BRACETD, but no difference in CDI6M (HR = 1.17; 95% CI, 0.91-1.50). Differences in CDW6M were not found between the treatment groups. In the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis, natalizumab dominated fingolimod (0.302 higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and £17,141 lower predicted lifetime costs). Similar cost-effectiveness results were observed across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This MSBase Registry analysis suggests that natalizumab improves clinical outcomes when compared with fingolimod, which translates to higher QALYs and lower costs in UK patients with RES-RRMS.

Examining the environmental risk factors of progressive-onset and relapsing-onset multiple sclerosis: recruitment challenges, potential bias, and statistical strategies

It is unknown whether the currently known risk factors of multiple sclerosis reflect the etiology of progressive-onset multiple sclerosis (POMS) as observational studies rarely included analysis by type of onset. We designed a case-control study to examine associations between environmental factors and POMS and compared effect sizes to relapse-onset MS (ROMS), which will offer insights into the etiology of POMS and potentially contribute to prevention and intervention practice. This study utilizes data from the Primary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis (PPMS) Study and the Australian Multi-center Study of Environment and Immune Function (the AusImmune Study). This report outlines the conduct of the PPMS Study, whether the POMS sample is representative, and the planned analysis methods. The study includes 155 POMS, 204 ROMS, and 558 controls. The distributions of the POMS were largely similar to Australian POMS patients in the MSBase Study, with 54.8% female, 85.8% POMS born before 1970, mean age of onset of 41.44 ± 8.38 years old, and 67.1% living between 28.9 and 39.4° S. The POMS were representative of the Australian POMS population. There are some differences between POMS and ROMS/controls (mean age at interview: POMS 55 years vs. controls 40 years; sex: POMS 53% female vs. controls 78% female; location of residence: 14.3% of POMS at a latitude ≤ 28.9°S vs. 32.8% in controls), which will be taken into account in the analysis. We discuss the methodological issues considered in the study design, including prevalence-incidence bias, cohort effects, interview bias and recall bias, and present strategies to account for it. Associations between exposures of interest and POMS/ROMS will be presented in subsequent publications.

Effectiveness of multiple disease-modifying therapies in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: causal inference to emulate a multiarm randomised trial

BACKGROUND

Simultaneous comparisons of multiple disease-modifying therapies for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) over an extended follow-up are lacking. Here we emulate a randomised trial simultaneously comparing the effectiveness of six commonly used therapies over 5 years.

METHODS

Data from 74 centres in 35 countries were sourced from MSBase. For each patient, the first eligible intervention was analysed, censoring at change/discontinuation of treatment. The compared interventions included natalizumab, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta, glatiramer acetate and no treatment. Marginal structural Cox models (MSMs) were used to estimate the average treatment effects (ATEs) and the average treatment effects among the treated (ATT), rebalancing the compared groups at 6-monthly intervals on age, sex, birth-year, pregnancy status, treatment, relapses, disease duration, disability and disease course. The outcomes analysed were incidence of relapses, 12-month confirmed disability worsening and improvement.

RESULTS

23 236 eligible patients were diagnosed with RRMS or clinically isolated syndrome. Compared with glatiramer acetate (reference), several therapies showed a superior ATE in reducing relapses: natalizumab (HR=0.44, 95% CI=0.40 to 0.50), fingolimod (HR=0.60, 95% CI=0.54 to 0.66) and dimethyl fumarate (HR=0.78, 95% CI=0.66 to 0.92). Further, natalizumab (HR=0.43, 95% CI=0.32 to 0.56) showed a superior ATE in reducing disability worsening and in disability improvement (HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08 to 1.60). The pairwise ATT comparisons also showed superior effects of natalizumab followed by fingolimod on relapses and disability.

CONCLUSIONS

The effectiveness of natalizumab and fingolimod in active RRMS is superior to dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, glatiramer acetate and interferon beta. This study demonstrates the utility of MSM in emulating trials to compare clinical effectiveness among multiple interventions simultaneously.

The risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis is geographically determined but modifiable

Geographical variations in the incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis have been reported globally. Latitude as a surrogate for exposure to ultraviolet radiation but also other lifestyle and environmental factors are regarded as drivers of this variation. No previous studies evaluated geographical variation in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis, an advanced form of multiple sclerosis that is characterized by steady accrual of irreversible disability. We evaluated differences in the risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in relation to latitude and country of residence, modified by high-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy in a geographically diverse cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. The study included relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients from the global MSBase registry with at least one recorded assessment of disability. Secondary progressive multiple sclerosis was identified as per clinician diagnosis. Sensitivity analyses used the operationalized definition of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis and the Swedish decision tree algorithm. A proportional hazards model was used to estimate the cumulative risk of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis by country of residence (latitude), adjusted for sex, age at disease onset, time from onset to relapsing-remitting phase, disability (Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score) and relapse activity at study inclusion, national multiple sclerosis prevalence, government health expenditure, and proportion of time treated with high-to-moderate efficacy disease-modifying therapy. Geographical variation in time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive phase of multiple sclerosis was modelled through a proportional hazards model with spatially correlated frailties. We included 51 126 patients (72% female) from 27 countries. The median survival time from relapsing-remitting phase to secondary progressive multiple sclerosis among all patients was 39 (95% confidence interval: 37 to 43) years. Higher latitude [median hazard ratio = 1.21, 95% credible interval (1.16, 1.26)], higher national multiple sclerosis prevalence [1.07 (1.03, 1.11)], male sex [1.30 (1.22, 1.39)], older age at onset [1.35 (1.30, 1.39)], higher disability [2.40 (2.34, 2.47)] and frequent relapses [1.18 (1.15, 1.21)] at inclusion were associated with increased hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. Higher proportion of time on high-to-moderate efficacy therapy substantially reduced the hazard of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis [0.76 (0.73, 0.79)] and reduced the effect of latitude [interaction: 0.95 (0.92, 0.99)]. At the country-level, patients in Oman, Tunisia, Iran and Canada had higher risks of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis relative to the other studied regions. Higher latitude of residence is associated with a higher probability of developing secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. High-to-moderate efficacy immunotherapy can mitigate some of this geographically co-determined risk.

Diagnostic delay of multiple sclerosis: prevalence, determinants and consequences

BACKGROUND

Early diagnosis and treatment of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) are associated with better outcomes; however, diagnostic delays remain a major problem.

OBJECTIVE

Describe the prevalence, determinants and consequences of delayed diagnoses.

METHODS

This single-centre ambispective study analysed 146 adult relapsing-remitting MS patients (2016-2021) for frequency and determinants of diagnostic delays and their associations with clinical, cognitive, imaging and biochemical measures.

RESULTS

Diagnostic delays were identified in 77 patients (52.7%), including 42 (28.7%) physician-dependent cases and 35 (24.0%) patient-dependent cases. Diagnosis was delayed in 22 (15.1%) patients because of misdiagnosis by a neurologist. A longer diagnostic delay was associated with trends towards greater Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores (B = 0.03; p = 0.034) and greater z-score of the blood neurofilament light chain (B = 0.35; p = 0.031) at the time of diagnosis. Compared with patients diagnosed at their first clinical relapse, patients with a history of >1 relapse at diagnosis (n = 63; 43.2%) had a trend towards greater EDSS scores (B = 0.06; p = 0.006) and number of total (B = 0.13; p = 0.040) and periventricular (B = 0.06; p = 0.039) brain lesions.

CONCLUSION

Diagnostic delays in MS are common, often determined by early misdiagnosis and associated with greater disease burden.

The impact of healthcare systems on the clinical diagnosis and disease-modifying treatment usage in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis: a real-world perspective in five registries across Europe

Introduction

Prescribing guidance for disease-modifying treatment (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is centred on a clinical diagnosis of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS). DMT prescription guidelines and monitoring vary across countries. Standardising the approach to diagnosis of disease course, for example, assigning RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS) diagnoses, allows examination of the impact of health system characteristics on the stated clinical diagnosis and treatment access.

Methods

We analysed registry data from six cohorts in five countries (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden and United Kingdom) on patients with an initial diagnosis of RRMS. We standardised our approach utilising a pre-existing algorithm (DecisionTree, DT) to determine patient diagnoses of RRMS or secondary progressive MS (SPMS). We identified five global drivers of DMT prescribing: Provision, Availability, Funding, Monitoring and Audit, data were analysed against these concepts using meta-analysis and univariate meta-regression.

Results

In 64,235 patients, we found variations in DMT use between countries, with higher usage in RRMS and lower usage in SPMS, with correspondingly lower usage in the UK compared to other registers. Factors such as female gender (p = 0.041), increasing disability via Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score (p = 0.004), and the presence of monitoring (p = 0.029) in SPMS influenced the likelihood of receiving DMTs. Standardising the diagnosis revealed differences in reclassification rates from clinical RRMS to DT-SPMS, with Sweden having the lowest rate Sweden (Sweden 0.009, range: Denmark 0.103 - UK portal 0.311). Those with higher EDSS at index (p < 0.03) and female gender (p < 0.049) were more likely to be reclassified from RRMS to DT-SPMS. The study also explored the impact of diagnosis on DMT usage in clinical SPMS, finding that the prescribing environment and auditing practices affected access to treatment.

Discussion

This highlights the importance of a healthcare system's approach to verifying the clinical label of MS course in facilitating appropriate prescribing, with some flexibility allowed in uncertain cases to ensure continued access to treatment.

Disability accrual in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Some studies comparing primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS, SPMS) report similar ages at onset of the progressive phase and similar rates of subsequent disability accrual. Others report later onset and/or faster accrual in SPMS. Comparisons have been complicated by regional cohort effects, phenotypic differences in sex ratio and management and variable diagnostic criteria for SPMS.

METHODS

We compared disability accrual in PPMS and operationally diagnosed SPMS in the international, clinic-based MSBase cohort. Inclusion required PPMS or SPMS with onset at age ≥18 years since 1995. We estimated Andersen-Gill hazard ratios for disability accrual on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), adjusted for sex, age, baseline disability, EDSS score frequency and drug therapies, with centre and patient as random effects. We also estimated ages at onset of the progressive phase (Kaplan-Meier) and at EDSS milestones (Turnbull). Analyses were replicated with physician-diagnosed SPMS.

RESULTS

Included patients comprised 1872 with PPMS (47% men; 50% with activity) and 2575 with SPMS (32% men; 40% with activity). Relative to PPMS, SPMS had older age at onset of the progressive phase (median 46.7 years (95% CI 46.2-47.3) vs 43.9 (43.3-44.4); p<0.001), greater baseline disability, slower disability accrual (HR 0.86 (0.78-0.94); p<0.001) and similar age at wheelchair dependence.

CONCLUSIONS

We demonstrate later onset of the progressive phase and slower disability accrual in SPMS versus PPMS. This may balance greater baseline disability in SPMS, yielding convergent disability trajectories across phenotypes. The different rates of disability accrual should be considered before amalgamating PPMS and SPMS in clinical trials.

Is breastfeeding in MS harmful or not? An answer from real-world Czech data

INTRODUCTION

The influence of breastfeeding and it´s duration on the course of multiple sclerosis (MS) is unclear. Here we analyzed a real-world data for breastfeeding women with MS and their disease course collected from a Czech national registry ReMuS.

OBJECTIVES

To identify risk factors associated with not initiating breastfeeding after delivery, to analyze the impact of breastfeeding on the MS disease course, evaluate the assumption, that breastfeeding is not harmful in MS patients, and compare the disease course by breastfeeding status.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using propensity score matching we compared Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), confirmed disease worsening (CDW) and annual relapse rate (ARR) in breastfeeding and non-breastfeeding MS patients according to disease duration, disease modifying treatment (DMT) before pregnancy, last EDSS score before conception, age, and ARR during pregnancy. We also compared these parameters between breastfeeding patients not using a DMT and non-breastfeeding patients who resumed DMT within 3 months after delivery. EDSS, ARR, and CDW were collected at 12, 24, and 36 months after delivery.

RESULTS

A total of 1681 pregnancies that ended in delivery were analyzed from 2013 through 2020. Change in ARR and EDSS values and 6-months CDW did not significantly differ between the analyzed groups. Compared with non-breastfeeding women who resumed DMT early after delivery, breastfeeding women with MS did not experience worse clinical outcomes even without initiating a DMT.

DISCUSSION

Breastfeeding in Czech women with MS did not negatively affect the disease course and can be supported. Patients with MS can be treated with certain DMTs alongside breastfeeding and there is no need to stop breastfeeding, if the patient is clinically stable.

Immunity following SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in autoimmune neurological disorders treated with rituximab or ocrelizumab

Background

Rituximab (RTX) and ocrelizumab (OCR), B cell-depleting therapy targeting CD20 molecules, affect the humoral immune response after vaccination. How these therapies influence T-cell-mediated immune response against SARS-CoV-2 after immunization remains unclear. We aimed to evaluate the humoral and cellular immune response to the COVID-19 vaccine in a cohort of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS), neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorders (NMOSD), and myasthenia gravis (MG).

Methods

Patients with MS (83), NMOSD (19), or MG (7) undergoing RTX (n=47) or OCR (n=62) treatment were vaccinated twice with the mRNA BNT162b2 vaccine. Antibodies were quantified using the SARS-CoV-2 IgG chemiluminescence immunoassay, targeting the spike protein. SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell responses were quantified by interferon γ release assays (IGRA). The responses were evaluated at two different time points (4-8 weeks and 16-20 weeks following the 2nd dose of the vaccine). Immunocompetent vaccinated individuals (n=41) were included as controls.

Results

Almost all immunocompetent controls developed antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 trimeric spike protein, but only 34.09% of the patients, without a COVID-19 history and undergoing anti-CD20 treatment (via RTX or OCR), seroconverted. This antibody response was higher in patients with intervals of longer than 3 weeks between vaccinations. The duration of therapy was significantly shorter in seroconverted patients (median 24 months), than in the non-seroconverted group. There was no correlation between circulating B cells and the levels of antibodies. Even patients with a low proportion of circulating CD19⁺ B cells (<1%, 71 patients) had detectable SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody responses. SARS-CoV-2 specific T cell response measured by released interferon γ was detected in 94.39% of the patients, independently of a humoral immune response.

Conclusion

The majority of MS, MG, and NMOSD patients developed a SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response. The data suggest that vaccination can induce SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in a portion of anti-CD20 treated patients. The seroconversion rate was higher in OCR-treated patients compared to those on RTX. The response represented by levels of antibodies was better in individuals, with intervals of longer than 3 weeks between vaccinations.

CSF Markers of Oxidative Stress Are Associated with Brain Atrophy and Iron Accumulation in a 2-Year Longitudinal Cohort of Early MS

In this prospective longitudinal study, we quantified regional brain volume and susceptibility changes during the first two years after the diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS) and identified their association with cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) markers at baseline. Seventy patients underwent MRI (T1 and susceptibility weighted images processed to quantitative susceptibility maps, QSM) with neurological examination at the diagnosis and after two years. In CSF obtained at baseline, the levels of oxidative stress, products of lipid peroxidation, and neurofilaments light chain (NfL) were determined. Brain volumetry and QSM were compared with a group of 58 healthy controls. In MS patients, regional atrophy was identified in the striatum, thalamus, and substantia nigra. Magnetic susceptibility increased in the striatum, globus pallidus, and dentate and decreased in the thalamus. Compared to controls, MS patients developed greater atrophy of the thalamus, and a greater increase in susceptibility in the caudate, putamen, globus pallidus and a decrease in the thalamus. Of the multiple calculated correlations, only the decrease in brain parenchymal fraction, total white matter, and thalamic volume in MS patients negatively correlated with increased NfL in CSF. Additionally, negative correlation was found between QSM value in the substantia nigra and peroxiredoxin-2, and QSM value in the dentate and lipid peroxidation levels.

Does initial high efficacy therapy in multiple sclerosis surpass escalation treatment strategy? A comparison of patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis in the Czech and Swedish national multiple sclerosis registries

BACKGROUND

In relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) the most common treatment strategy has been to start with low-moderate efficacy disease modifying therapy (LE-DMT) and to escalate to more efficacious treatments in cases of breakthrough disease activity. However, recent evidence suggests a better outcome in patients commencing with moderate-high efficacy DMT (HE-DMT) immediately after clinical onset.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study is to compare disease activity and disability outcomes in patients treated with the two alternative strategies using the Swedish and Czech national multiple sclerosis registries, taking advantage of the fact that the relative frequency of each strategy differs markedly between these two countries.

METHODS

Adult RRMS patients who initiated their first-ever DMT between 2013 and 2016 and were included in the Swedish MS register were compared with a similar cohort from the MS register of the Czech Republic using propensity score overlap weighting as a balancing method. The main outcomes of interest were time to confirmed disability worsening (CDW), time to achieve an expanded disability status scale (EDSS) value of 4, time to relapse, and time to confirmed disability improvement (CDI). To support the results, a sensitivity analysis focusing solely on patients from Sweden starting with HE-DMT and patients from the Czech Republic starting with LE-DMT was performed.

RESULTS

In the Swedish cohort, 42% of patients received HE-DMT as initial therapy compared to 3.8% of patients in the Czech cohort. The time to CDW was not significantly different between the Swedish and Czech cohorts (p-value 0.2764), with hazard ratio (HR) of 0.89 and a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.77-1.03. Patients from the Swedish cohort exhibited better outcomes for all remaining variables. The risk of reaching EDSS 4 was reduced by 26% (HR 0.74, 95%CI 0.6-0.91, p-value 0.0327), the risk of relapse was reduced by 66% (HR 0.34, 95%CI 0.3-0.39, p-value <0.001), and the probability of CDI was three times higher (HR 3.04, 95%CI 2.37-3.9, p-value <0.001).

CONCLUSION

The analysis of the Czech and the Swedish RRMS cohorts confirmed a better prognosis for patients in Sweden, where a significant proportion of patients received HE-DMT as initial treatment.

A plain language summary on the effectiveness of cladribine tablets compared with other oral treatments for multiple sclerosis: results from the MSBase registry

WHAT IS THIS SUMMARY ABOUT?

Patient registries contain anonymous data from people who share the same medical condition. The MSBase registry contains information from over 80,000 people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) across 41 countries. Using information from the MSBase registry, the GLIMPSE (Generating Learnings In MultiPle SclErosis) study looked at real-life outcomes in 3475 people living with MS who were treated with cladribine tablets (Mavenclad^®) compared with other oral treatments.

WHAT WERE THE RESULTS?

Results showed that people treated with cladribine tablets stayed on treatment for longer than other treatments given by mouth. They also had fewer relapses (also called flare ups of symptoms) than people who received a different oral treatment for their MS.

WHAT DO THE RESULTS MEAN?

The results provide evidence that, compared with other oral treatments for MS, cladribine tablets are an effective medicine for people living with MS.

Comparison Between Dimethyl Fumarate, Fingolimod, and Ocrelizumab After Natalizumab Cessation

Importance

Natalizumab cessation is associated with a risk of rebound disease activity. It is important to identify the optimal switch disease-modifying therapy strategy after natalizumab to limit the risk of severe relapses.

Objectives

To compare the effectiveness and persistence of dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, and ocrelizumab among patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who discontinued natalizumab.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In this observational cohort study, patient data were collected from the MSBase registry between June 15, 2010, and July 6, 2021. The median follow-up was 2.7 years. This was a multicenter study that included patients with RRMS who had used natalizumab for 6 months or longer and then were switched to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab within 3 months after natalizumab discontinuation. Patients without baseline data were excluded from the analysis. Data were analyzed from May 24, 2022, to January 9, 2023.

Exposures

Dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, and ocrelizumab.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Primary outcomes were annualized relapse rate (ARR) and time to first relapse. Secondary outcomes were confirmed disability accumulation, disability improvement, and subsequent treatment discontinuation, with the comparisons for the first 2 limited to fingolimod and ocrelizumab due to the small number of patients taking dimethyl fumarate. The associations were analyzed after balancing covariates using an inverse probability of treatment weighting method.

Results

Among 66 840 patients with RRMS, 1744 had used natalizumab for 6 months or longer and were switched to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab within 3 months of natalizumab discontinuation. After excluding 358 patients without baseline data, a total of 1386 patients (mean [SD] age, 41.3 [10.6] years; 990 female [71%]) switched to dimethyl fumarate (138 [9.9%]), fingolimod (823 [59.4%]), or ocrelizumab (425 [30.7%]) after natalizumab. The ARR for each medication was as follows: ocrelizumab, 0.06 (95% CI, 0.04-0.08); fingolimod, 0.26 (95% CI, 0.12-0.48); and dimethyl fumarate, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.12-0.56). The ARR ratio of fingolimod to ocrelizumab was 4.33 (95% CI, 3.12-6.01) and of dimethyl fumarate to ocrelizumab was 4.50 (95% CI, 2.89-7.03). Compared with ocrelizumab, the hazard ratio (HR) of time to first relapse was 4.02 (95% CI, 2.83-5.70) for fingolimod and 3.70 (95% CI, 2.35-5.84) for dimethyl fumarate. The HR of treatment discontinuation was 2.57 (95% CI, 1.74-3.80) for fingolimod and 4.26 (95% CI, 2.65-6.84) for dimethyl fumarate. Fingolimod use was associated with a 49% higher risk for disability accumulation compared with ocrelizumab. There was no significant difference in disability improvement rates between fingolimod and ocrelizumab.

Conclusion and Relevance

Study results show that among patients with RRMS who switched from natalizumab to dimethyl fumarate, fingolimod, or ocrelizumab, ocrelizumab use was associated with the lowest ARR and discontinuation rates, and the longest time to first relapse.

The Czech National MS Registry (ReMuS): Data trends in multiple sclerosis patients whose first disease-modifying therapies were initiated from 2013 to 2021

AIMS

Multiple sclerosis treatment strategies are changing in the Czech Republic. According to data from 2013-2021, the proportion of patients starting high-efficacy disease-modifying therapies is increasing. In this survey, we describe the actual data trends in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients beginning their first disease‑modifying therapies (DMTs) from 2013 to 2021. The secondary objective was to present the history, data collection, and scientific potential of the Czech National MS registry (ReMuS).

METHODS

First, using descriptive statistics, we analysed the data for patients starting their first DMTs, either platform (including dimethyl fumarate) or high-efficacy DMTs (HE-DMTs), for each successive year. Second, a detailed description of the history, data collection, completeness, quality optimising procedures, and legal policies of ReMuS is provided.

RESULTS

Based on the dataset from December 31, 2021, the total number of monitored patients with MS in ReMuS increased from 9,019 in 2013 (referred from 7 of 15 MS centres) to 12,940 in 2016 (referred from all 15 Czech MS centres) to 17,478 in 2021. In these years, the percentage of patients treated with DMTs in the registry ranged from 76 to 83%, but the proportion of patients treated with HE-DMTs changed from 16.2% in 2013 to 37.1% in 2021. During the follow-up period, a total of 8,491 treatment-naive patients received DMTs. The proportion of patients (all MS phenotypes) starting HE-DMTs increased from 2.1% in 2013 to 18.5% in 2021.

CONCLUSION

Patient registries, including ReMuS, provide an essential quality data source, especially in light of the increasing percentage of patients on HE-DMTs. Although early initiation of HE-DMT can provide considerable benefits, it also carries greater potential risks. Consistent long-term follow-up of patients in real‑world clinical practice, which only registries allow, is therefore crucial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of therapeutic strategies, for epidemiological research and to assist decision making by healthcare providers and regulatory bodies.

Variability of the response to immunotherapy among subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study assessed the effect of patient characteristics on the response to disease-modifying therapy (DMT) in multiple sclerosis (MS).

METHODS

We extracted data from 61,810 patients from 135 centers across 35 countries from the MSBase registry. The selection criteria were: clinically isolated syndrome or definite MS, follow-up ≥ 1 year, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score ≥ 3, with ≥1 score recorded per year. Marginal structural models with interaction terms were used to compare the hazards of 12-month confirmed worsening and improvement of disability, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated patients stratified by their characteristics.

RESULTS

Among 24,344 patients with relapsing MS, those on DMTs experienced 48% reduction in relapse incidence (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.52, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45-0.60), 46% lower risk of disability worsening (HR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.41-0.71), and 32% greater chance of disability improvement (HR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.09-1.59). The effect of DMTs on EDSS worsening and improvement and the risk of relapses was attenuated with more severe disability. The magnitude of the effect of DMT on suppressing relapses declined with higher prior relapse rate and prior cerebral magnetic resonance imaging activity. We did not find any evidence for the effect of age on the effectiveness of DMT. After inclusion of 1985 participants with progressive MS, the effect of DMT on disability mostly depended on MS phenotype, whereas its effect on relapses was driven mainly by prior relapse activity.

CONCLUSIONS

DMT is generally most effective among patients with lower disability and in relapsing MS phenotypes. There is no evidence of attenuation of the effect of DMT with age.

Comparative effectiveness in multiple sclerosis: A methodological comparison

BACKGROUND

In the absence of evidence from randomised controlled trials, observational data can be used to emulate clinical trials and guide clinical decisions. Observational studies are, however, susceptible to confounding and bias. Among the used techniques to reduce indication bias are propensity score matching and marginal structural models.

OBJECTIVE

To use the comparative effectiveness of fingolimod vs natalizumab to compare the results obtained with propensity score matching and marginal structural models.

METHODS

Patients with clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing remitting MS who were treated with either fingolimod or natalizumab were identified in the MSBase registry. Patients were propensity score matched, and inverse probability of treatment weighted at six monthly intervals, using the following variables: age, sex, disability, MS duration, MS course, prior relapses, and prior therapies. Studied outcomes were cumulative hazard of relapse, disability accumulation, and disability improvement.

RESULTS

4608 patients (1659 natalizumab, 2949 fingolimod) fulfilled inclusion criteria, and were propensity score matched or repeatedly reweighed with marginal structural models. Natalizumab treatment was associated with a lower probability of relapse (PS matching: HR 0.67 [95% CI 0.62-0.80]; marginal structural model: 0.71 [0.62-0.80]), and higher probability of disability improvement (PS matching: 1.21 [1.02 -1.43]; marginal structural model 1.43 1.19 -1.72]). There was no evidence of a difference in the magnitude of effect between the two methods.

CONCLUSIONS

The relative effectiveness of two therapies can be efficiently compared by either marginal structural models or propensity score matching when applied in clearly defined clinical contexts and in sufficiently powered cohorts.

Early non-disabling relapses are important predictors of disability accumulation in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

The prognostic significance of non-disabling relapses in people with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether early non-disabling relapses predict disability accumulation in RRMS.

METHODS

We redefined mild relapses in MSBase as 'non-disabling', and moderate or severe relapses as 'disabling'. We used mixed-effects Cox models to compare 90-day confirmed disability accumulation events in people with exclusively non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis to those with no early relapses; and any early disabling relapses. Analyses were stratified by disease-modifying therapy (DMT) efficacy during follow-up.

RESULTS

People who experienced non-disabling relapses within 2 years of RRMS diagnosis accumulated more disability than those with no early relapses if they were untreated (n = 285 vs 4717; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.00-1.68) or given platform DMTs (n = 1074 vs 7262; HR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.15-1.54), but not if given high-efficacy DMTs (n = 572 vs 3534; HR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.71-1.13) during follow-up. Differences in disability accumulation between those with early non-disabling relapses and those with early disabling relapses were not confirmed statistically.

CONCLUSION

This study suggests that early non-disabling relapses are associated with a higher risk of disability accumulation than no early relapses in RRMS. This risk may be mitigated by high-efficacy DMTs. Therefore, non-disabling relapses should be considered when making treatment decisions.

Proportion and characteristics of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in five European registries using objective classifiers

Background

To assign a course of secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) (SPMS) may be difficult and the proportion of persons with SPMS varies between reports. An objective method for disease course classification may give a better estimation of the relative proportions of relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and SPMS and may identify situations where SPMS is under reported.

Materials and methods

Data were obtained for 61,900 MS patients from MS registries in the Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (UK), including date of birth, sex, SP conversion year, visits with an Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, MS onset and diagnosis date, relapses, and disease-modifying treatment (DMT) use. We included RRMS or SPMS patients with at least one visit between January 2017 and December 2019 if ≥ 18 years of age. We applied three objective methods: A set of SPMS clinical trial inclusion criteria ("EXPAND criteria") modified for a real-world evidence setting, a modified version of the MSBase algorithm, and a decision tree-based algorithm recently published.

Results

The clinically assigned proportion of SPMS varied from 8.7% (Czechia) to 34.3% (UK). Objective classifiers estimated the proportion of SPMS from 15.1% (Germany by the EXPAND criteria) to 58.0% (UK by the decision tree method). Due to different requirements of number of EDSS scores, classifiers varied in the proportion they were able to classify; from 18% (UK by the MSBase algorithm) to 100% (the decision tree algorithm for all registries). Objectively classified SPMS patients were older, converted to SPMS later, had higher EDSS at index date and higher EDSS at conversion. More objectively classified SPMS were on DMTs compared to the clinically assigned.

Conclusion

SPMS appears to be systematically underdiagnosed in MS registries. Reclassified patients were more commonly on DMTs.

Switching to natalizumab or fingolimod in multiple sclerosis: Comparative effectiveness and effect of pre-switch disease activity

BACKGROUND

Patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) who experience relapses on a first-line therapy (interferon, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide; collectively, "BRACETD") often switch to another therapy, including natalizumab or fingolimod. Here we compare the effectiveness of switching from a first-line therapy to natalizumab or fingolimod after ≥1 relapse.

METHODS

Data collected prospectively in the MSBase Registry, a global, longitudinal, observational registry, were extracted on February 6, 2018. Included patients were adults with RRMS with ≥1 relapse on BRACETD therapy in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod. Included patients received natalizumab or fingolimod for ≥3 months after the switch.

RESULTS

Following 1:1 propensity score matching, 1000 natalizumab patients were matched to 1000 fingolimod patients. Mean (standard deviation) follow-up time was 3.02 (2.06) years after switching to natalizumab and 2.58 (1.64) years after switching to fingolimod. Natalizumab recipients had significantly lower annualized relapse rate (relative risk=0.66; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.74), lower risk of first relapse (hazard ratio [HR]=0.69; 95% CI, 0.60-0.80), and higher confirmed disability improvement (HR=1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.57) than fingolimod recipients. No difference in confirmed disability worsening was observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients with RRMS switching from BRACETD demonstrated better outcomes with natalizumab than with fingolimod.

Comparative effectiveness of cladribine tablets versus other oral disease-modifying treatments for multiple sclerosis: Results from MSBase registry

BACKGROUND

Effectiveness of cladribine tablets, an oral disease-modifying treatment (DMT) for multiple sclerosis (MS), was established in clinical trials and confirmed with real-world experience.

OBJECTIVES

Use real-world data to compare treatment patterns and clinical outcomes in people with MS (pwMS) treated with cladribine tablets versus other oral DMTs.

METHODS

Retrospective treatment comparisons were based on data from the international MSBase registry. Eligible pwMS started treatment with cladribine, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide tablets from 2018 to mid-2021 and were censored at treatment discontinuation/switch, death, loss to follow-up, pregnancy, or study period end. Treatment persistence was evaluated as time to discontinuation/switch; relapse outcomes included time to first relapse and annualized relapse rate (ARR).

RESULTS

Cohorts included 633 pwMS receiving cladribine tablets, 1195 receiving fingolimod, 912 receiving dimethyl fumarate, and 735 receiving teriflunomide. Individuals treated with fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, or teriflunomide switched treatment significantly more quickly than matched cladribine tablet cohorts (adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 4.00 (2.54-6.32), 7.04 (4.16-11.93), and 6.52 (3.79-11.22), respectively). Cladribine tablet cohorts had significantly longer time-to-treatment discontinuation, time to first relapse, and lower ARR, compared with other oral DMT cohorts.

CONCLUSION

Cladribine tablets were associated with a significantly greater real-world treatment persistence and more favorable relapse outcomes than all oral DMT comparators.

Heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories in patients with secondary progressive MS: a latent class analysis from Big MS Data network

BACKGROUND

Over the decades, several natural history studies on patients with primary (PPMS) or secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) were reported from international registries. In PPMS, a consistent heterogeneity on long-term disability trajectories was demonstrated. The aim of this study was to identify subgroups of patients with SPMS with similar longitudinal trajectories of disability over time.

METHODS

All patients with MS collected within Big MS registries who received an SPMS diagnosis from physicians (cohort 1) or satisfied the Lorscheider criteria (cohort 2) were considered. Longitudinal Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores were modelled by a latent class growth analysis (LCGA), using a non-linear function of time from the first EDSS visit in the range 3-4.

RESULTS

A total of 3613 patients with SPMS were included in the cohort 1. LCGA detected three different subgroups of patients with a mild (n=1297; 35.9%), a moderate (n=1936; 53.6%) and a severe (n=380; 10.5%) disability trajectory. Median time to EDSS 6 was 12.1, 5.0 and 1.7 years, for the three groups, respectively; the probability to reach EDSS 6 at 8 years was 14.4%, 78.4% and 98.3%, respectively. Similar results were found among 7613 patients satisfying the Lorscheider criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Contrary to previous interpretations, patients with SPMS progress at greatly different rates. Our identification of distinct trajectories can guide better patient selection in future phase 3 SPMS clinical trials. Additionally, distinct trajectories could reflect heterogeneous pathological mechanisms of progression.

Real-world operation of multiple sclerosis centres in Central-Eastern European countries covering 107 million inhabitants

BACKGROUND

In 2018 multiple sclerosis (MS) care unit (MSCU) recommendations were defined. Nevertheless, the information on MS care, and whether MS centres fulfil the international recommendation is limited. Thus our objectives were to assess whether centres meet the MSCU recommendations and gain a comprehensive overview of MS care in Central-Eastern European countries.

METHODS

A self-report questionnaire assessing aspects of the MSCU recommendations, disease-modifying therapy (DMT) and registry use and the patient number was assembled and sent to nine Central-Eastern European countries. Furthermore, one Danish and one German centre were contacted as a reference.

RESULTS

In 9/9 countries, MS care was pursued in centres by MS neurologists and MS nurses. In Austria and the Czech Republic, management of MS was conducted under strict regulations displaying a referral centre system, fundamentally similar to but independent of the MSCU criteria. Several centres fulfilled all aspects of the MSCU criteria, while others had similar insufficiencies consisting of a speech therapist, continence, pain and spasticity specialist, neuro-ophthalmologist, and oto-neurologist. In 9/9 countries, DMTs were reimbursed. However, some centres did not provide every available DMT. A national registry was available in 4/9 countries with mandatory registry use only in Austria and the Czech Republic.

CONCLUSION

In countries where MSCU recommendations are not fulfilled, a strictly regulated centre system similar to the Austrian and Czech model with a registry-based quality control might ensure appropriate care for people with MS.

Comparing switch to ocrelizumab, cladribine or natalizumab after fingolimod treatment cessation in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

To compare the effectiveness and treatment persistence of ocrelizumab, cladribine and natalizumab in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis switching from fingolimod.

METHODS

Using data from MSBase registry, this multicentre cohort study included subjects who had used fingolimod for ≥6 months and then switched to ocrelizumab, cladribine or natalizumab within 3 months after fingolimod discontinuation. We analysed relapse and disability outcomes after balancing covariates using an inverse-probability-treatment-weighting method. Propensity scores for the three treatments were obtained using multinomial-logistic regression. Due to the smaller number of cladribine users, comparisons of disability outcomes were limited to natalizumab and ocrelizumab.

RESULTS

Overall, 1045 patients switched to ocrelizumab (n=445), cladribine (n=76) or natalizumab (n=524) after fingolimod. The annualised relapse rate (ARR) for ocrelizumab was 0.07, natalizumab 0.11 and cladribine 0.25. Compared with natalizumab, the ARR ratio (95% confidence interval [CI]) was 0.67 (0.47 to 0.96) for ocrelizumab and 2.31 (1.30 to 4.10) for cladribine; the hazard ratio (95% CI) for time to first relapse was 0.57 (0.40 to 0.83) for ocrelizumab and 1.18 (0.47 to 2.93) for cladribine. Ocrelizumab users had an 89% lower discontinuation rate (95% CI, 0.07 to 0.20) than natalizumab, but also a 51% lower probability of confirmed disability improvement (95% CI, 0.32 to 0.73). There was no difference in disability accumulation.

CONCLUSION

After fingolimod cessation, ocrelizumab and natalizumab were more effective in reducing relapses than cladribine. Due to the low ARRs in all three treatment groups, additional observation time is required to determine if statistical difference in ARRs results in long-term disability differences.

Not all roads lead to the immune system: the genetic basis of multiple sclerosis severity

Multiple sclerosis is a leading cause of neurological disability in adults. Heterogeneity in multiple sclerosis clinical presentation has posed a major challenge for identifying genetic variants associated with disease outcomes.

To overcome this challenge, we used prospectively ascertained clinical outcomes data from the largest international multiple sclerosis Registry, MSBase. We assembled a cohort of deeply phenotyped individuals of European ancestry with relapse-onset multiple sclerosis. We used unbiased genome-wide association study and machine learning approaches to assess the genetic contribution to longitudinally defined multiple sclerosis severity phenotypes in 1,813 individuals.

Our primary analyses did not identify any genetic variants of moderate to large effect sizes that met genome-wide significance thresholds. The strongest signal was associated with rs7289446 (β=-0.4882, P = 2.73 × 10−7), intronic to SEZ6L on chromosome 22. However, we demonstrate that clinical outcomes in relapse-onset multiple sclerosis are associated with multiple genetic loci of small effect sizes. Using a machine learning approach incorporating over 62,000 variants together with clinical and demographic variables available at multiple sclerosis disease onset, we could predict severity with an area under the receiver operator curve of 0.84 (95% CI 0.79–0.88). Our machine learning algorithm achieved positive predictive value for outcome assignation of 80% and negative predictive value of 88%. This outperformed our machine learning algorithm that contained clinical and demographic variables alone (area under the receiver operator curve 0.54, 95% CI 0.48–0.60).

Secondary, sex-stratified analyses identified two genetic loci that met genome-wide significance thresholds. One in females (rs10967273; βfemale =0.8289, P = 3.52 × 10−08), the other in males (rs698805; βmale = -1.5395, P = 4.35 × 10−08), providing some evidence for sex dimorphism in multiple sclerosis severity. Tissue enrichment and pathway analyses identified an overrepresentation of genes expressed in central nervous system compartments generally, and specifically in the cerebellum (P = 0.023). These involved mitochondrial function, synaptic plasticity, oligodendroglial biology, cellular senescence, calcium and g-protein receptor signalling pathways. We further identified six variants with strong evidence for regulating clinical outcomes, the strongest signal again intronic to SEZ6L (adjusted hazard ratio 0.72, P = 4.85 × 10−4).

Here we report a milestone in our progress towards understanding the clinical heterogeneity of multiple sclerosis outcomes, implicating functionally distinct mechanisms to multiple sclerosis risk. Importantly, we demonstrate that machine learning using common single nucleotide variant clusters, together with clinical variables readily available at diagnosis can improve prognostic capabilities at diagnosis, and with further validation has the potential to translate to meaningful clinical practice change.

Assessment of T2 lesion-based disease activity volume outcomes in predicting disease progression in multiple sclerosis over 10 years

BACKGROUND

New/enlarging T2 lesion count and T2-lesion volume (LV) are used as conventional secondary endpoints in clinical trials of patients with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). However, those outcomes may have several limitations, such as inability to account for heterogeneity of lesion formation/enlargement frequency and their dynamic volumetric behavior. Measurement of volume rather than count of new/enlarging lesions may be more representative outcome of dynamic changes over time.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether new/enlarging T2-LV is more predictive of confirmed disability progression (CDP), compared to total T2-LV or new/enlarging T2 lesion count over long-term follow-up.

METHODS

We studied 176 early relapsing-remitting PwMS who were followed with annual MRI examinations over 10 years. T2-LV, new/enlarging T2-LV, and new/enlarging lesion count were determined. Cumulative count/volumes were obtained. 10-year CDP was confirmed after 48-weeks. ANCOVA analysis detected MRI outcome differences in stable (n = 76) and CDP (n = 100) groups at different time points, after correction for multiple comparisons.

RESULTS

PwMS with CDP had greater cumulative new/enlarging T2-LV at 4 years (p = 0.049), and enlarging T2-LV at 4- (p = 0.039) and 6-year follow-up (p = 0.032), compared to stable patients. PwMS with CDP did not differ from stable ones in new/enlarging T2 lesion count or total T2-LV at any of the study timepoints. PwMS with Expanded Disability Status Scale change >2.0 had significantly greater enlarging T2 lesion count (p = 0.01) and enlarging T2-LV (p = 0.038) over the 10-year follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Enlargement of T2 lesions is more strongly associated with long-term disability progression compared to other conventional T2 lesion-based outcomes.

Early predictors of disability in paediatric multiple sclerosis: evidence from a multi-national registry

BACKGROUND

Early recognition of markers of faster disability worsening in paediatric-onset multiple sclerosis (MS) is a key requisite of personalised therapy for children with MS at the earliest possible time.

OBJECTIVE

To identify early predictors of rapid disability accrual in patients with paediatric-onset MS.

METHODS

Using the global MSBase registry, we identified patients who were <18 years old at the onset of MS symptoms. The clinico-demographic characteristics examined as predictors of future MS Severity Score (MSSS) included sex, age at symptom onset, absence of disability at the initial assessment, maximum Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score, relapse frequency and presence of brainstem, pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms in the first year. A Bayesian log-normal generalised linear mixed model adjusted for cumulative proportion of time on higher-efficacy disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) was used to analyse the data.

RESULTS

672 patients (70% female) contributing 9357 visits were included. The median age at symptom onset was 16 (quartiles 15-17) years. Older age at symptom onset (exp(β)=1.10 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.17)), higher EDSS score (1.22 (1.12 to 1.34)) and pyramidal (1.31 (1.11 to 1.55)), visual (1.25 (1.10 to 1.44)) or cerebellar (1.18 (1.01 to 1.38)) symptoms in the first year were associated with higher MSSS. MSSS was reduced by 4% for every 24% increase in the proportion of time on higher-efficacy DMTs (0.96 (0.93 to 0.99)).

CONCLUSIONS

A relatively later onset of MS in childhood, higher disability and pyramidal, visual or cerebellar symptoms during the first year predicted significant worsening in disability in patients with paediatric-onset MS. Persistent treatment with higher-efficacy DMTs was associated with a reduced rate of disability worsening.

To be or not to be vaccinated: The risk of MS or NMOSD relapse after COVID-19 vaccination and infection

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 vaccination and infection are speculated to increase the activity of immune-mediated diseases, including multiple sclerosis (MS) and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD). The aim of this study was to evaluate a short-term risk of relapse after COVID-19 vaccination and COVID-19 infection in patients with these demyelinating disorders of the central nervous system and to determine disease exacerbation risk factors.

METHODS

Data in this retrospective, observational cohort study was collected via the Czech nationwide registry ReMuS from March 1, 2020, to October 30, 2021. We compared the proportion of patients with at least one clinical relapse in the 90 days following vaccination or infection to the 90-day intervals during the year before. For the evaluation of the risk factors of relapse, a comparison between groups with and without relapses after COVID-19 vaccination or infection was made.

RESULTS

We identified 1661 vaccinated (90.11% BNT162b2) patients with MS without a history of COVID-19 and 495 unvaccinated patients with MS who experienced COVID-19. A mild increase in the proportion of patients with at least one clinical relapse (-360 to -270 days: 4.46%; -270 to -180: 4.27%; -180 to -90: 3.85%; -90 to 0: 3.79% vs. 0 to +90 days: 5.30%) after vaccination in patients with MS was observed, as well as a rise in the proportion of patients with at least one clinical relapse after COVID-19. Lower age was associated with MS relapse after vaccination or infection. Although there were only 17 vaccinated and eight post-COVID-19 patients with NMOSD, the results were broadly consistent with those of patients with MS.

CONCLUSION

There is a mild increase in the relapse incidence after the COVID-19 vaccination. The risks, however, need to be balanced against the risks of COVID-19 itself, also leading to the rise in relapse rate and particularly to morbidity and mortality.

Disease Reactivation After Cessation of Disease-Modifying Therapy in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the rate of return of disease activity after cessation of multiple sclerosis (MS) disease-modifying therapy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study from two large observational MS registries: MSBase and OFSEP. Patients with relapsing-remitting MS who had ceased a disease-modifying therapy and were followed up for the subsequent 12-months were included in the analysis. The primary study outcome was annualised relapse rate in the 12 months after disease-modifying therapy discontinuation stratified by patients who did, and did not, commence a subsequent therapy. The secondary endpoint was the predictors of first relapse and disability accumulation after treatment discontinuation.

RESULTS

14,213 patients, with 18,029 eligible treatment discontinuation epochs, were identified for seven therapies. Annualised rates of relapse (ARR) started to increase 2-months after natalizumab cessation (month 2-4 ARR, 95% confidence interval): 0.47, 0.43-0.51). Commencement of a subsequent therapy within 2-4 months reduced the magnitude of disease reactivation (mean ARR difference: 0.15, 0.08-0.22). After discontinuation of fingolimod, rates of relapse increased overall (month 1-2 ARR: 0.80, 0.70-0.89), and stabilised faster in patients who started a new therapy within 1-2 months (mean ARR difference: 0.14, -0.01-0.29). Magnitude of disease reactivation for other therapies was low, but reduced further by commencement of another treatment 1-10 months after treatment discontinuation. Predictors of relapse were higher relapse rate in the year before cessation, female sex, younger age and higher EDSS. Commencement of a subsequent therapy reduced both the risk of relapse (HR 0.76, 95%CI 0.72-0.81) and disability accumulation (0.73, 0.65-0.80).

CONCLUSION

The rate of disease reactivation after treatment cessation differs among MS treatments, with the peaks of relapse activity ranging from 1 to 10 months in untreated cohorts that discontinued different therapies. These results suggest that untreated intervals should be minimised after stopping anti-trafficking therapies (natalizumab and fingolimod).

CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE

This study provides class III that disease reactivation occurs within months of discontinuation of multiple sclerosis disease-modifying therapies. Risk of disease activity is reduced by commencement of a subsequent therapy.

Brainstem lesions are associated with diffuse spinal cord involvement in early multiple sclerosis

Background

Early infratentorial and focal spinal cord lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are associated with a higher risk of long-term disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS). The role of diffuse spinal cord lesions remains less understood. The purpose of this study was to evaluate focal and especially diffuse spinal cord lesions in patients with early relapsing-remitting MS and their association with intracranial lesion topography, global and regional brain volume, and spinal cord volume.

Methods

We investigated 58 MS patients with short disease duration (< 5 years) from a large academic MS center and 58 healthy controls matched for age and sex. Brain, spinal cord, and intracranial lesion volumes were compared among patients with- and without diffuse spinal cord lesions and controls. Binary logistic regression models were used to analyse the association between the volume and topology of intracranial lesions and the presence of focal and diffuse spinal cord lesions.

Results

We found spinal cord involvement in 75% of the patients (43/58), including diffuse changes in 41.4% (24/58). Patients with diffuse spinal cord changes exhibited higher volumes of brainstem lesion volume (p = 0.008). The presence of at least one brainstem lesion was associated with a higher probability of the presence of diffuse spinal cord lesions (odds ratio 47.1; 95% confidence interval 6.9–321.6 p < 0.001) as opposed to focal spinal cord lesions (odds ratio 0.22; p = 0.320). Patients with diffuse spinal cord lesions had a lower thalamus volume compared to patients without diffuse spinal cord lesions (p = 0.007) or healthy controls (p = 0.002).

Conclusions

Diffuse spinal cord lesions are associated with the presence of brainstem lesions and with a lower volume of the thalamus. This association was not found in patients with focal spinal cord lesions. If confirmed, thalamic atrophy in patients with diffuse lesions could increase our knowledge on the worse prognosis in patients with infratentorial and SC lesions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-022-02778-z.

The Impact of the Pandemic COVID 19 on Adolescent’s Sports Performance in Czech Republic

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, free movement, leisure activities and sports, both competitive and elite, were restricted by measures against the spread of the infection. The study aimed to evaluate the impact of the restricttions on the performance of Czech adolescent competitive athletes. Methods: The sample of the retrospective study comprised 125 participants (41 girls, 84 boys). The initial examination, the mean age of the entire sample was 15.5 ± 1.2 (median 16.0) years; 16.0 ± 1.2 in girls and 15.5 ± 1.2 in boys, respectively. All participants were examined during regular preventive sports health checks from September to November 2019 and a year later. The examination consisted of a complete medical history and physical examination, anthropometric measurements (height, weight and body mass index [BMI] calculations) and maximal exercise testing on a leg cycle ergometer, ECG and blood pressure recordings. The response variables in regression models were power output (W/kg) and MET. Results: In the entire sample, as well as in the boy and girl subgroups, body height, weight, BMI, BMI percentile and power output were significantly increased in 2020 compared to 2019, yet with a statistically significant reduction in both power output per kilogram of body weight and metabolic equivalent (MET). In 2020, the relative power output dropped by 0.13 W/kg and MET by 0.6. There was no statistically significant predictor of changes in relative power output and MET identified in regression models, including no significant impact of the sport type. There were no significant differences in results between genders. Conclusions: Performance and anthropometric parameters, specifically power output per kilogram of body weight and MET, worsened in the sample of adolescent male and female athletes.

Impact of methodological choices in comparative effectiveness studies: application in natalizumab versus fingolimod comparison among patients with multiple sclerosis

Background

Natalizumab and fingolimod are used as high-efficacy treatments in relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis. Several observational studies comparing these two drugs have shown variable results, using different methods to control treatment indication bias and manage censoring. The objective of this empirical study was to elucidate the impact of methods of causal inference on the results of comparative effectiveness studies.

Methods

Data from three observational multiple sclerosis registries (MSBase, the Danish MS Registry and French OFSEP registry) were combined. Four clinical outcomes were studied. Propensity scores were used to match or weigh the compared groups, allowing for estimating average treatment effect for treated or average treatment effect for the entire population. Analyses were conducted both in intention-to-treat and per-protocol frameworks. The impact of the positivity assumption was also assessed.

Results

Overall, 5,148 relapsing–remitting multiple sclerosis patients were included. In this well-powered sample, the 95% confidence intervals of the estimates overlapped widely. Propensity scores weighting and propensity scores matching procedures led to consistent results. Some differences were observed between average treatment effect for the entire population and average treatment effect for treated estimates. Intention-to-treat analyses were more conservative than per-protocol analyses. The most pronounced irregularities in outcomes and propensity scores were introduced by violation of the positivity assumption.

Conclusions

This applied study elucidates the influence of methodological decisions on the results of comparative effectiveness studies of treatments for multiple sclerosis. According to our results, there are no material differences between conclusions obtained with propensity scores matching or propensity scores weighting given that a study is sufficiently powered, models are correctly specified and positivity assumption is fulfilled.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-022-01623-8.

Periventricular gradient of T1 tissue alterations in multiple sclerosis

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T₁ relaxation times alterations were assessed based on a study-specific atlas.

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T₁ alterations depend on distance from lateral ventricles (“periventricular gradient”).

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Gradient parameters correlate better with disability compared to conventional MRI.

Objective

Pathology in multiple sclerosis is not homogenously distributed. Recently, it has been shown that structures adjacent to CSF are more severely affected. A gradient of brain tissue involvement was shown with more severe pathology in periventricular areas and in proximity to brain surfaces such as the subarachnoid spaces and ependyma, and hence termed the “surface–in” gradient. Here, we study whether (i) the surface-in gradient of periventricular tissue alteration measured by T₁ relaxometry is already present in early multiple sclerosis patients, (ii) how it differs between early and progressive multiple sclerosis patients, and (iii) whether the gradient-derived metrics in normal-appearing white matter and lesions correlate better with physical disability than conventional MRI-based metrics.

Methods

Forty-seven patients with early multiple sclerosis, 52 with progressive multiple sclerosis, and 92 healthy controls were included in the study. Isotropic 3D T₁ relaxometry maps were obtained using the Magnetization-Prepared 2 Rapid Acquisition Gradient Echoes sequence at 3 T. After spatially normalizing the T₁ maps into a study-specific common space, T₁ inter-subject variability within the healthy cohort was modelled voxel-wise, yielding a normative T₁ atlas. Individual comparisons of each multiple sclerosis patient against the atlas were performed by computing z-scores. Equidistant bands of voxels were defined around the ventricles in the supratentorial white matter; the z-scores in these bands were analysed and compared between the early and progressive multiple sclerosis cohorts. Correlations between both conventional and z-score-gradient-derived MRI metrics and the Expanded Disability Status Scale were assessed.

Results

Patients with early and progressive multiple sclerosis demonstrated a periventricular gradient of T₁ relaxation time z-scores. In progressive multiple sclerosis, z-score-derived metrics reflecting the gradient of tissue abnormality in normal-appearing white matter were more strongly correlated with disability (maximal rho = 0.374) than the conventional lesion volume and count (maximal rho = 0.189 and 0.21 respectively). In early multiple sclerosis, the gradient of normal-appearing white matter volume with z-scores > 2 at baseline correlated with clinical disability assessed at two years follow-up.

Conclusion

Our results suggest that the surface-in white matter gradient of tissue alteration is detectable with T1 relaxometry and is already present at clinical disease onset. The periventricular gradients correlate with clinical disability. The periventricular gradient in normal-appearing white matter may thus qualify as a promising biomarker for monitoring of disease activity from an early stage in all phenotypes of multiple sclerosis.

Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis

Background and purpose

The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short‐term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6‐month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long‐term disability worsening.

Methods

In total, 14,802 6‐month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6‐month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long‐term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial.

Results

The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29–0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score ˃1.5).

Conclusions

Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6‐month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long‐term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long‐term disability accrual.

Association of Latitude and Exposure to Ultraviolet B Radiation With Severity of Multiple Sclerosis: An International Registry Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The severity of multiple sclerosis (MS) varies widely among individuals. Understanding the determinants of this heterogeneity will help clinicians optimize the management of MS. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between latitude of residence, ultraviolet B radiation exposure (UVB) and the severity of MS.

METHODS

This observational study used the MSBase registry data. The included patients met the 2005 or 2010 McDonald diagnostic criteria for MS and had a minimum dataset recorded in the registry (date of birth, sex, clinic location, date of MS symptom onset, disease phenotype at baseline and censoring, and ≥1 EDSS [Expanded Disability Status Scale] score recorded). The latitude of each study center and cumulative annualized UVB dose at study center (calculated from NASA's Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) at ages 6 and 18 and the year of disability assessment were calculated. Disease severity was quantified with MS Severity Score (MSSS). Quadratic regression was used to model the associations between latitude, UVB and MSSS.

RESULTS

46,128 patients contributing 453,208 visits and a cumulative follow-up of 351,196 patient-years (70% women, mean age 39.2±12, resident between latitudes 19°35´ and 56°16´) were included in this study. Latitude showed a non-linear association with MS severity. In latitudes greater than 40°, more severe disease was associated with higher latitudes (β=0.08, 95%CI: 0.04 to 0.12). For example, this translates into a mean difference of 1.3 points of MSSS between patients living in Madrid and Copenhagen. No such association was observed in latitudes <40° (β=-0.02, 95% CI:-0.06 to 0.03). The overall disability accrual was faster in those with a lower level of estimated UVB exposure before the age of 6 (β=- 0.5, 95% CI: -0.6 to 0.4) and 18 years (β=- 0.6, 95%CI:-0.7 to 0.4), as well as with lower life-time UVB exposure at the time of disability assessment (β=-1.0, 95%CI:-1.1 to 0.9).

DISCUSSION

In temperate zones, MS severity is associated with latitude. This association is mainly, but not exclusively, driven by UVB exposure contributing to both MS susceptibility and severity.

Time course of lesion-induced atrophy in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

White matter (WM) tract disruption impacts volume loss in connected deep gray matter (DGM) over 5 years in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). However, the timeline of this phenomenon remains poorly characterized.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Annual serial MRI for 181 PwMS was retrospectively analyzed from a 10-year clinical trial database. Annualized thalamic atrophy, DGM atrophy, and disruption of connected WM tracts were measured. For time series analysis, ~700 epochs were collated using a sliding 5-year window, and regression models predicting 1-year atrophy were applied to characterize the influence of new tract disruption from preceding years, while controlling for whole brain atrophy and other relevant factors.

RESULTS

Disruptions of WM tracts connected to the thalamus were significantly associated with thalamic atrophy 1 year later (β: 0.048-0.103). This effect was not observed for thalamic tract disruption concurrent with the time of atrophy nor for thalamic tract disruption preceding the atrophy by 2-4 years. Similarly, disruptions of white matter tracts connected to the DGM were significantly associated with DGM atrophy 1 year later (β: 0.078-0.111), but not for tract disruption concurrent with, nor preceding the atrophy by 2-4 years.

CONCLUSION

Increased rates of thalamic and DGM atrophy were restricted to 1 year following newly developed disruption in connected WM tracts. In research and clinical settings, additional gray matter atrophy may be expected 1 year following new lesion growth in connected white matter.

Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS) improves the accuracy of individualized prediction in MS

Background:

The MSBase prediction model of treatment response leverages multiple demographic and clinical characteristics to estimate hazards of relapses, confirmed disability accumulation (CDA), and confirmed disability improvement (CDI). The model did not include Multiple Sclerosis Severity Score (MSSS), a disease duration-adjusted ranked score of disability.

Objective:

To incorporate MSSS into the MSBase prediction model and compare model accuracy with and without MSSS.

Methods:

The associations between MSSS and relapse, CDA, and CDI were evaluated with marginal proportional hazards models adjusted for three principal components representative of patients’ demographic and clinical characteristics. The model fit with and without MSSS was assessed with penalized r2 and Harrell C.

Results:

A total of 5866 MS patients were started on disease-modifying therapy during prospective follow-up (age 38.4 ± 10.6 years; 72% female; disease duration 8.5 ± 7.7 years). Including MSSS into the model improved the accuracy of individual prediction of relapses by 31%, of CDA by 23%, and of CDI by 24% (Harrell C) and increased the amount of variance explained for relapses by 49%, for CDI by 11%, and for CDA by 10% as compared with the original model.

Conclusion:

Addition of a single, readily available metric, MSSS, to the comprehensive MSBase prediction model considerably improved the individual accuracy of prognostics in MS.

Multiple Sclerosis Relapses Following Cessation of Fingolimod

Background

There is growing interest in the issue of disease reactivation in multiple sclerosis following fingolimod cessation. Relatively little is known about modifiers of the risk of post-cessation relapse, including the delay to commencement of new therapy and prior disease activity.

Objective

We aimed to determine the rate of relapse following cessation of fingolimod and to identify predictors of relapse following cessation.

Methods

Data were extracted from the MSBase registry in March 2019. Inclusion criteria were (a) clinically definite relapsing multiple sclerosis, (b) treatment with fingolimod for ≥ 12 months, (c) follow-up after cessation for ≥ 12 months, and (d) at least one Expanded Disability Status Scale score recorded in the 12 months before cessation.

Results

A total of 685 patients were identified who met criteria. The mean annualised relapse rate was 1.71 (95% CI 1.59, 1.85) in the year prior to fingolimod, 0.50 (95% CI 0.44, 0.55) on fingolimod and 0.43 (95% CI 0.38, 0.49) after fingolimod. Of these, 218 (32%) patients experienced a relapse in the first 12 months. Predictors of a higher relapse rate in the first year were: younger age at fingolimod cessation, higher relapse rate in the year prior to cessation, delaying commencement of new therapy and switching to low-efficacy therapy.

Conclusions

Disease reactivation following fingolimod cessation is more common in younger patients, those with greater disease activity prior to cessation and in those who switch to a low-efficacy therapy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40261-022-01129-7.

Comparative Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Natalizumab and Fingolimod in Patients with Inadequate Response to Disease-Modifying Therapies in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Patients with highly active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis inadequately responding to first-line therapies (interferon-based therapies, glatiramer acetate, dimethyl fumarate, and teriflunomide, known collectively as "BRACETD") often switch to natalizumab or fingolimod.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to estimate the comparative effectiveness of switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD using real-world data and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of switching to natalizumab versus fingolimod using a United Kingdom (UK) third-party payer perspective.

METHODS

Real-world data were obtained from MSBase for patients relapsing on BRACETD in the year before switching to natalizumab or fingolimod or within BRACETD. Three-way-multinomial-propensity-score-matched cohorts were identified, and comparisons between treatment groups were conducted for annualised relapse rate (ARR) and 6-month-confirmed disability worsening (CDW6M) and improvement (CDI6M). Results were applied in a cost-effectiveness model over a lifetime horizon using a published Markov structure with health states based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale. Other model parameters were obtained from the UK MS Survey 2015, published literature, and publicly available UK sources.

RESULTS

The MSBase analysis found a significant reduction in ARR (rate ratio [RR] = 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57-0.72; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.67; 95% CI 1.30-2.15; p < 0.001) for switching to natalizumab compared with BRACETD. For switching to fingolimod, the reduction in ARR (RR = 0.91; 95% CI 0.81-1.03; p = 0.133) and increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.30; 95% CI 0.99-1.72; p = 0.058) compared with BRACETD were not significant. Switching to natalizumab was associated with a significant reduction in ARR (RR = 0.70; 95% CI 0.62-0.79; p < 0.001) and an increase in CDI6M (HR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.01-1.62; p = 0.040) compared to switching to fingolimod. No evidence of difference in CDW6M was found between treatment groups. Natalizumab dominated (higher quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] and lower costs) fingolimod in the base-case cost-effectiveness analysis (0.453 higher QALYs and £20,843 lower costs per patient). Results were consistent across sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

This novel real-world analysis suggests a clinical benefit for therapy escalation to natalizumab versus fingolimod based on comparative effectiveness results, translating to higher QALYs and lower costs for UK patients inadequately responding to BRACETD.

Long-Term Effects of Alemtuzumab on CD4+ Lymphocytes in Multiple Sclerosis Patients: A 72-Month Follow-Up

Introduction

Alemtuzumab is highly effective in the treatment of patients with relapsing multiple sclerosis (PwRMS) and selectively targets the CD52 antigen, with a consequent profound lymphopenia, particularly of CD4+ T lymphocytes. However, the immunological basis of its long-term efficacy has not been clearly elucidated.

Methods

We followed up 29 alemtuzumab-treated RMS patients over a period of 72 months and studied the immunological reconstitution of their CD4+ T cell subsets by means of phenotypic and functional analysis and through mRNA-related molecule expression, comparing them to healthy subject (HS) values (rate 2:1).

Results

In patients receiving only two-course alemtuzumab, the percentage of CD4+ lymphocytes decreased and returned to basal levels only at month 48. Immune reconstitution of the CD4+ subsets was characterized by a significant increase (p < 0.001) in Treg cell percentage at month 24, when compared to baseline, and was accompanied by restoration of the Treg suppressor function that increased within a range from 2- to 6.5-fold compared to baseline and that persisted through to the end of the follow-up. Furthermore, a significant decrease in self-reactive myelin basic protein-specific Th17 (p < 0.0001) and Th1 (p < 0.05) cells reaching HS values was observed starting from month 12. There was a change in mRNA of cytokines, chemokines, and transcriptional factors related to Th17, Th1, and Treg cell subset changes, consequently suggesting a shift toward immunoregulation and a reduction of T cell recruitment to the central nervous system.

Conclusions

These data provide further insight into the mechanism that could contribute to the long-term 6-year persistence of the clinical effect of alemtuzumab on RMS disease activity.

Validating atlas-based lesion disconnectomics in multiple sclerosis: A retrospective multi-centric study

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Structural disconnectomes can be modelled without diffusion using tractography atlases.

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Atlas-based and DTI-derived disconnectome topological metrics correlate strongly.

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MS patient disconnectomes relate to clinical scores.

The translational potential of MR-based connectivity modelling is limited by the need for advanced diffusion imaging, which is not part of clinical protocols for many diseases. In addition, where diffusion data is available, brain connectivity analyses rely on tractography algorithms which imply two major limitations. First, tracking algorithms are known to be sensitive to the presence of white matter lesions and therefore leading to interpretation pitfalls and poor inter-subject comparability in clinical applications such as multiple sclerosis. Second, tractography quality is highly dependent on the acquisition parameters of diffusion sequences, leading to a trade-off between acquisition time and tractography precision.

Here, we propose an atlas-based approach to study the interplay between structural disconnectivity and lesions without requiring individual diffusion imaging. In a multi-centric setting involving three distinct multiple sclerosis datasets (containing both 1.5 T and 3 T data), we compare our atlas-based structural disconnectome computation pipeline to disconnectomes extracted from individual tractography and explore its clinical utility for reducing the gap between radiological findings and clinical symptoms in multiple sclerosis. Results using topological graph properties showed that overall, our atlas-based disconnectomes were suitable approximations of individual disconnectomes from diffusion imaging. Small-worldness was found to decrease for larger total lesion volumes thereby suggesting a loss of efficiency in brain connectivity of MS patients. Finally, the global efficiency of the created brain graph, combined with total lesion volume, allowed to stratify patients into subgroups with different clinical scores in all three cohorts.