Age- and sex-specific trends in fatal incidence and hospitalized incidence of stroke in Scotland, 1986 to 2005

Diverging Temporal Trends in Stroke Incidence in Younger vs Older People: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Overall stroke incidence is falling in high-income countries, but data on time trends in incidence of young stroke (ie, stroke in individuals younger than 55 years) are conflicting. An age-specific divergence in incidence, with less favorable trends at younger vs older ages, might be a more consistent underlying finding across studies.

OBJECTIVE

To compare temporal trends in incidence of stroke at younger vs older ages in high-income countries.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and EMBASE were searched from inception to February 2022. One additional population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study) was also included.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies reporting age-specific stroke incidence in high-income countries at more than 1 time point.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

For all retrieved studies, 2 authors independently reviewed the full text against the inclusion criteria to establish their eligibility. Meta-analysis was performed with the inverse variance-weighted random-effects model. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) reporting guideline was followed.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcome was age-specific divergence (<55 vs ≥55 years) in temporal trends in stroke incidence (relative temporal rate ratio [RTTR]) in studies extending to at least 2000. RTTRs were calculated for each study and pooled by random-effects meta-analysis, with stratification by administrative vs prospective population-based methodology, sex, stroke subtype (ischemic vs intracerebral hemorrhage vs subarachnoid hemorrhage) and geographical region.

RESULTS

Among 50 studies in 20 countries, 26 (13 prospective population-based and 13 administrative studies) reported data allowing calculation of the RTTR for stroke incidence at younger vs older ages across 2 or more periods, the latest extending beyond 2000. Reported trends in absolute incidence of young individuals with stroke were heterogeneous, but all studies showed a less favorable trend in incidence at younger vs older ages (pooled RTTR = 1.57 [95% CI, 1.42-1.74]). The overall RTTR was consistent by stroke subtype (ischemic, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.44-1.83]; intracerebral hemorrhage, 1.32 [95% CI, 0.91-1.92]; subarachnoid hemorrhage, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.00-2.35]); and by sex (men, 1.46 [95% CI, 1.34-1.60]; women, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.28-1.55]) but was greater in studies reporting trends solely after 2000 (1.51 [95% CI, 1.30-1.70]) vs solely before (1.18 [95% CI, 1.12-1.24]) and was highest in population-based studies in which the most recent reported period of ascertainment started after 2010 (1.87 [95% CI, 1.55-2.27]).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Temporal trends in stroke incidence are diverging by age in high-income countries, with less favorable trends at younger vs older ages, highlighting the urgent need to better understand etiology and prevention of stroke at younger ages.

Trends in Stroke Incidence in High-Income Countries in the 21st Century: Population-Based Study and Systematic Review

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Population-based studies provide the most reliable data on stroke incidence. A previous systematic review of population-based studies suggested that stroke incidence in high-income countries decreased by 42% between the 1970s and early 2000s. However, it is uncertain whether this trend of steady decline has been maintained in more recent periods.

What causes the burden of stroke in Scotland? A comparative risk assessment approach linking the Scottish Health Survey to administrative health data

Background

The availability of robust evidence to inform effective public health decision making is becoming increasingly important, particularly in a time of competing health demands and limited resources. Comparative Risk Assessments (CRA) are useful in this regard as they quantify the contribution of modifiable exposures to the disease burden in a population. The aim of this study is to assess the contribution of a range of modifiable exposures to the burden of disease due to stroke, an important public health problem in Scotland.

Methods

We used individual-level response data from eight waves (1995–2012) of the Scottish Health Survey linked to acute hospital discharge records from the Scottish Morbidity Record 01 (SMR01) and cause of death records from the death register. Stroke was defined using the International Classification of Disease (ICD) 9 codes 430–431, 433–4 and 436; and the ICD10 codes I60-61 and I63-64 and stroke incidence was defined as a composite of an individual’s first hospitalisation or death from stroke. A literature review identified exposures causally linked to stroke. Exposures were mapped to the layers of the Dahlgren & Whitehead model of the determinants of health and Population Attributable Fractions were calculated for each exposure deemed a significant causal risk of stroke from a Cox Proportional Hazards Regression model. Population Attributable Fractions were not summed as they may add to more than 100% due to the possibility of a person being exposed to more than one exposure simultaneously.

Results

Overall, the results suggest that socioeconomic factors explain the largest proportion of incident stroke hospitalisations and deaths, after adjustment for confounding. After DAG adjustment, low education explained 38.8% (95% Confidence Interval 26.0% to 49.4%, area deprivation (as measured by the Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation) 34.9% (95% CI 26.4 to 42.4%), occupational social class differences 30.3% (95% CI 19.4% to 39.8%), high systolic blood pressure 29.6% (95% CI 20.6% to 37.6%), smoking 25.6% (95% CI 17.9% to 32.6%) and area deprivation (as measured by the Carstairs area deprivation Index) 23.5% (95% CI 14.4% to 31.7%), of incident strokes in Scotland after adjustment.

Conclusion

This study provides evidence for prioritising interventions that tackle socioeconomic inequalities as a means of achieving the greatest reduction in avoidable strokes in Scotland. Future work to disentangle the proportion of the effect of deprivation transmitted through intermediate mediators on the pathway between socioeconomic inequalities and stroke may offer additional opportunities to reduce the incidence of stroke in Scotland.

Trends in age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of cardiovascular disease in Western Australia

Background Temporal trends in incidence and mortality of cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been well described, with recent data suggesting declining improvements in those aged under 55 years. However, little is known about the combined impact of incidence and mortality trends on disease prevalence, an important indicator of disease burden and cost. We analysed changes in age-specific and age-standardised temporal trends in prevalence and incidence of CVD subtypes. Methods Annual prevalence and incidence rates of coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease and peripheral arterial disease for the Western Australian population for 1995-2010 were calculated using data from the Western Australian Data Linkage System. Joinpoint regression analyses were used to identify joinpoints in trends in age-specific and age-standardised annual prevalence and incidence rates for each CVD subtype. Results Between 1995 and 2010, age- and sex-specific incidence and prevalence of the CVD subtypes generally decreased among middle-aged and older adults, but were stable or increased among younger adults. In < 55 year olds, increases in incidence tended to occur from 2003, while increases in prevalence were from 2007/2008. Declines in age-standardised incidence were greater than those in crude incidence, with changes in population structure having a greater impact among men than women. Conclusions The majority of CVDs occurs in older adults. Our findings of generally worsening trends in prevalence in younger adults across most CVD subtypes were in contrast to generally declining trends in older age groups. These data highlight the importance of monitoring prevalence and incidence, particularly in younger adults.

Trends in the Attack Rates, Incidence, and Mortality of Stroke during 1986-2012: Data of Kaunas (Lithuania) Stroke Registry

Background

There is a lack of reliable epidemiological data on longitudinal trends in stroke attack rates, incidence, and mortality in the countries of the Baltic region.

Aims

The aim of the present study was to explore the longitudinal trends of stroke in middle-aged urban population of Lithuania during the period of 1986 through 2012.

Methods

All stroke events in the studied population were ascertained and validated according to the standardized criteria outlined by the WHO MONICA Project. The study included all patients in Kaunas (Lithuania) city aged 25 to 64 years who experienced a stroke between 1986 and 2012. Estimates of time-trends of the annual percentage change in stroke attack rates, incidence of stroke, and mortality from this condition were made by applying the Joinpoint regression analysis.

Results

During the study period, 9,992 stroke events were registered. The overall proportion of recurrent events was 25.7%. Overall, 18.9% of the events (20.0% in men, and 17.4% in women) were fatal within 28 days. During the period of 1986 to 2012, a flat trend in the incidence of stroke was observed among both male and female middle-aged inhabitants of Kaunas city, while attack rates were increasing due to the increase in recurrent strokes. Both mortality and 28-day case fatality of stroke declined significantly over the study period in both sexes.

Conclusions

An increase both in the incidence and recurrence of stroke among middle-aged men residing in Kaunas city and in the recurrence of stroke among women denotes the inefficiency of measures applied both for primary and secondary prevention of stroke in Lithuania. The revision of current prevention strategies and the introduction of new ones are of paramount importance in order to fight the epidemic of stroke.

The effect of health education on Taiwanese hypertensive patients' knowledge and cognition of stroke

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a risk factor for stroke. Increasing patient knowledge and cognition about stroke among hypertensive patients is essential.

AIMS

To explore the effect of a health education intervention on the knowledge and cognition of stroke in hypertensive patients.

METHODS

A quasi-experimental design was used with 103 patients with hypertension. The sample was recruited from a cardiologist's outpatient office at a medical center in Kaohsiung city, southern Taiwan. Half the patients (experimental group, n = 52) received health education, whereas the others received only conventional general outpatient care (control group, n = 51). All patients underwent a pretest followed by posttests at 4 and 8 weeks after the intervention. A stroke knowledge scale and stroke cognition scale were used for data collection.

RESULTS

The experimental group scored significantly higher than the control group in level of knowledge and cognition of stroke.

DISCUSSION

This study supports that a health education CD-ROM and printed information provided in the outpatient clinical improves knowledge of and cognition of stroke among hypertensive patients.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

In outpatient clinical practice, nurses can help improve patients' knowledge and cognition of the risks of stroke by playing the health education CD-ROM and providing printed information during the patients' wait time before appointments.

CONCLUSIONS

Further studies with a longer follow-up (6 months or 1 year) are needed to evaluate the long-term effects of health education on stroke knowledge and cognition among patients with hypertension.

LINKING EVIDENCE TO ACTION

An outpatient health education program using a CD-ROM and printed information for hypertensive patients can improve the patients' knowledge and cognition of stroke.

National trends in main causes of hospitalization: a multi-cohort register study of the finnish working-age population, 1976-2010

Background

The health transition theory argues that societal changes produce proportional changes in causes of disability and death. The aim of this study was to identify long-term changes in main causes of hospitalization in working-age population within a nation that has experienced considerable societal change.

Methodology

National trends in all-cause hospitalization and hospitalizations for the five main diagnostic categories were investigated in the data obtained from the Finnish Hospital Discharge Register. The seven-cohort sample covered the period from 1976 to 2010 and consisted of 3,769,356 randomly selected Finnish residents, each cohort representing 25% sample of population aged 18 to 64 years.

Principal Findings

Over the period of 35 years, the risk of hospitalization for cardiovascular diseases and respiratory diseases decreased. Hospitalization for musculoskeletal diseases increased whereas mental and behavioral hospitalizations slightly decreased. The risk of cancer hospitalization decreased marginally in men, whereas in women an upward trend was observed.

Conclusions/Significance

A considerable health transition related to hospitalizations and a shift in the utilization of health care services of working-age men and women took place in Finland between 1976 and 2010.

Factors influencing the decline in stroke mortality: a statement from the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Stroke mortality has been declining since the early 20th century. The reasons for this are not completely understood, although the decline is welcome. As a result of recent striking and more accelerated decreases in stroke mortality, stroke has fallen from the third to the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. This has prompted a detailed assessment of the factors associated with the change in stroke risk and mortality. This statement considers the evidence for factors that have contributed to the decline and how they can be used in the design of future interventions for this major public health burden.

METHODS

Writing group members were nominated by the committee chair and co-chair on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association Stroke Council's Scientific Statements Oversight Committee and the American Heart Association Manuscript Oversight Committee. The writers used systematic literature reviews, references to published clinical and epidemiological studies, morbidity and mortality reports, clinical and public health guidelines, authoritative statements, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize evidence and to indicate gaps in current knowledge. All members of the writing group had the opportunity to comment on this document and approved the final version. The document underwent extensive American Heart Association internal peer review, Stroke Council leadership review, and Scientific Statements Oversight Committee review before consideration and approval by the American Heart Association Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee.

RESULTS

The decline in stroke mortality over the past decades represents a major improvement in population health and is observed for both sexes and for all racial/ethnic and age groups. In addition to the overall impact on fewer lives lost to stroke, the major decline in stroke mortality seen among people <65 years of age represents a reduction in years of potential life lost. The decline in mortality results from reduced incidence of stroke and lower case-fatality rates. These significant improvements in stroke outcomes are concurrent with cardiovascular risk factor control interventions. Although it is difficult to calculate specific attributable risk estimates, efforts in hypertension control initiated in the 1970s appear to have had the most substantial influence on the accelerated decline in stroke mortality. Although implemented later, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidemia control and smoking cessation programs, particularly in combination with treatment of hypertension, also appear to have contributed to the decline in stroke mortality. The potential effects of telemedicine and stroke systems of care appear to be strong but have not been in place long enough to indicate their influence on the decline. Other factors had probable effects, but additional studies are needed to determine their contributions.

CONCLUSIONS

The decline in stroke mortality is real and represents a major public health and clinical medicine success story. The repositioning of stroke from third to fourth leading cause of death is the result of true mortality decline and not an increase in mortality from chronic lung disease, which is now the third leading cause of death in the United States. There is strong evidence that the decline can be attributed to a combination of interventions and programs based on scientific findings and implemented with the purpose of reducing stroke risks, the most likely being improved control of hypertension. Thus, research studies and the application of their findings in developing intervention programs have improved the health of the population. The continued application of aggressive evidence-based public health programs and clinical interventions is expected to result in further declines in stroke mortality.

Twenty-four-year trends in the incidence of ischemic stroke in Sweden from 1987 to 2010

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

The incidence of stroke in Sweden increased between 1989 and 2000 among people aged ≤65 years, but more recent data on those aged >65 years are lacking.

METHODS

Through the Swedish Hospital Discharge and Cause of Death registries, we identified all cases of nonfatal and fatal ischemic stroke (IS) among people aged 18 to 84 years during 1987-2010 in Sweden.

RESULTS

Of the 391 081 stroke cases identified, 1.6% were 18 to 44 years, 16.7% were 45 to 64 years, and 81.7% were 65 to 84 years. Among people aged 18 to 44 years, there was a continuous increase in the incidence of stroke of 1.3% (95% confidence interval, 0.8%-1.8%) per year for men and 1.6% (1.0%-2.3%) per year for women. Among men and women aged 45 to 64 years, slightly declining rates were observed from the late 1990s, with a mean annual decrease of 0.4% (0.1%-0.7%) among men and 0.6% (0.2%-1.0%) among women. Among men aged 65 to 84 years, a decrease of 3.7% in IS (3.4%-4.0%) per year was observed from the late 1990s. This was more marked in women, where an initial decrease of 2.5% (2.1%-2.9%) per year was followed by an accelerated decrease of 5.1% (4.4%-5.8%) after 2005. Mortality from IS decreased markedly in all age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of IS in elderly people in Sweden is now decreasing, whereas the decline in IS incidence in the middle-aged people is much less steep. The increasing incidence of stroke in the young, particularly if carried forward to an older age, is concerning.

The future cost of stroke in Ireland: an analysis of the potential impact of demographic change and implementation of evidence-based therapies

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

this paper examines the impact of demographic change from 2007 to 2021 on the total cost of stroke in Ireland and analyses potential impacts of expanded access to stroke unit care and thrombolytic therapy on stroke outcomes and costs.

METHODS

total costs of stroke are estimated for the projected number of stroke cases in 2021 in Ireland. Analysis also estimates the potential number of deaths or institutionalised cases averted among incident stroke cases in Ireland in 2007 at different rates of access to stroke unit care and thrombolytic therapy. Drawing on these results, total stroke costs in Ireland in 2007 are recalculated on the basis of the revised numbers of incident stroke patients estimated to survive stroke, and of the numbers estimated to reside at home rather than in a nursing home in the context of expanded access to stroke units or thrombolytic therapy.

RESULTS

future costs of stroke in Ireland are estimated to increase by 52-57% between 2007 and 2021 on the basis of demographic change. The projected increase in aggregate stroke costs for all incident cases in 1 year in Ireland due to the delivery of stroke unit care and thrombolytic therapy can be offset to some extent by reductions in nursing home and other post-acute costs.

Population aging and hospitalization for chronic disease in Germany

BACKGROUND

The population of Germany is aging, i.e., the elderly currently make up an increasing percentage of the population from year to year. Furthermore, many common chronic diseases mainly affect the elderly. For these two reasons, the overall cost of health care in Germany is expected to increase. We studied the effect that population aging has had on the number of hospitalizations for major types of chronic disease in Germany since the year 2000.

METHODS

This study is based on nationwide hospitalization statistics, classified by diagnosis, that were published by the German Federal Statistical Office. We analyzed data for three classes of diagnoses--malignant neoplasia, cardiovascular diseases, and diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue--which were further broken down into nine diagnostic subgroups. Changes in inpatient case numbers might be due either to population aging or to changing rates of hospitalization for individual diagnoses. We used index decomposition analysis to determine the relative influence of these two factors on changing case numbers.

RESULTS

The author found that the aging of the population increased the number of hospitalizations for all of the diagnoses studied. This was particularly evident with respect to the large birth cohorts born in the 1920s (with the diagnosis of congestive heart failure) and in the period 1934-1944 (with the diagnoses ischemic heart disease, lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and osteoarthritis). On the other hand, changing rates of hospitalization for individual diagnoses increased the number of hospitalizations for some diagnoses (congestive heart failure, diseases of the spine and back) and decreased it for others (ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular diseases, colorectal cancer, breast cancer).

CONCLUSION

The aging of the population and the changing rates of hospitalization for various diagnoses are exerting separate effects on the number of hospitalizations for chronic diseases in Germany. Predictions of hospital case numbers in the future must take both factors into account.

Recent patterns of sex-specific midlife stroke hospitalization rates in the United States

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Little is known about sex-specific stroke hospitalization rates among middle-aged individuals. This study assessed recent temporal trends in stroke hospitalizations among persons aged 35 to 64 years in the United States.

METHODS

The Nationwide Inpatient Sample was used to identify individuals with a primary or secondary discharge diagnosis of stroke between 1997 and 2006 (n=3,161,752). Age-adjusted sex-specific rates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospitalizations were assessed among individuals aged 35 to 64 years.

RESULTS

Over the study period, stroke hospitalization rates per 100 000 decreased by 10% from 66.7 to 60.3 (trend P<0.01) in men and 8% from 52.7 to 48.3 (trend P<0.001) in women. The 55- to 64-year age group drove reductions in hospitalization rates: slope (rate of change per year)=-12.3 for men and -8.9 for women (both P<0.001). Rates increased slightly in men and women aged 35 to 44 years and remained stable for persons aged 45 to 54 years. Stroke subtype analysis revealed that rates of ischemic stroke hospitalization increased and hemorrhagic stroke hospitalization remained stable among individuals aged 35 to 44 years. Rates of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospitalizations remained stable among those aged 45 to 54 years and decreased among persons aged 55 to 64 years.

CONCLUSIONS

From 1997 to 2006, ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke hospitalization rates declined among individuals aged 55 to 64 years and remained stable among persons aged 45 to 54 years; ischemic stroke hospitalization rates increased among individuals aged 35 to 44 years. Further studies are needed to assess and address increases in ischemic stroke hospitalizations among younger individuals.

Temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland

BACKGROUND

There are few studies that have investigated temporal trends in risk of recurrent stroke. The aim of this study was to examine temporal trends in hospitalisation for stroke recurrence following incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland during 1986 to 2001.

METHODS

Unadjusted survival analysis of time to first event, hospitalisation for recurrent stroke or death, was undertaken using the cumulative incidence method which takes into account competing risks. Regression on cumulative incidence functions was used to model the temporal trends of first recurrent stroke with adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status and comorbidity. Complete five year follow-up was obtained for all patients. Restricted cubic splines were used to determine the best fitting relationship between the survival events and study year.

RESULTS

There were 128,511 incident hospitalisations for stroke in Scotland between 1986 and 2001, 57,351 (45%) in men. A total of 13,835 (10.8%) patients had a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke within five years of their incident hospitalisation. Another 74,220 (57.8%) patients died within five years of their incident hospitalisation without first having a recurrent hospitalisation for stroke. Comparing incident stroke hospitalisations in 2001 with 1986, the adjusted risk of recurrent stroke hospitalisation decreased by 27%, HR = 0.73 95% CI (0.67 to 0.78), and the adjusted risk of death being the first event decreased by 28%, HR = 0.72 (0.70 to 0.75).

CONCLUSIONS

Over the 15-year period approximately 1 in 10 patients with an incident hospitalisation for stroke in Scotland went on to have a hospitalisation for recurrent stroke within five years. Approximately 6 in 10 patients died within five years without first having a recurrent stroke hospitalisation. Using hospitalisation and death data from an entire country over a 20-year period we have been able to demonstrate not only an improvement in survival following an incident stroke, but also a reduction in the risk of a recurrent event.