The collapse of eastern Bering Sea snow crab

The snow crab is an iconic species in the Bering Sea that supports an economically important fishery and undergoes extensive monitoring and management. Since 2018, more than 10 billion snow crab have disappeared from the eastern Bering Sea, and the population collapsed to historical lows in 2021. We link this collapse to a marine heatwave in the eastern Bering Sea during 2018 and 2019. Calculated caloric requirements, reduced spatial distribution, and observed body conditions suggest that starvation played a role in the collapse. The mortality event appears to be one of the largest reported losses of motile marine macrofauna to marine heatwaves globally.

High school science fair: School location trends in student participation and experience

The findings reported in this paper are based on surveys of U.S. high school students who registered and managed their science and engineering fair (SEF) projects through the online Scienteer website over the three years 2019/20, 2020/21, and 2021/22. Almost 2500 students completed surveys after finishing all their SEF competitions. We added a new question in 2019/20 to our on-going surveys asking the students whether their high school location was urban, suburban, or rural. We learned that overall, 74% of students participating in SEFs indicated that they were from suburban schools. Unexpectedly, very few SEF participants, less than 4%, indicated that they were from rural schools, even though national data show that more than 20% of high school students attend rural schools. Consistent with previous findings, Asian and Hispanic students indicated more successful SEF outcomes than Black and White students. However, whereas Asian students had the highest percentage of SEF participants from suburban vs. urban schools- 81% vs. 18%, Hispanic students had the most balanced representation of participants from suburban vs. urban schools- 55% vs. 39%. Differences in students' SEF experiences based on gender and ethnicity showed the same patterns regardless of school location. In the few items where we observed statistically significant (probability < .05) differences based on school location, students from suburban schools were marginally favored by only a few percentage points compared to students from urban schools. In conclusion, based on our surveys results most students participating in SEFs come from suburban schools, but students participating in SEFs and coming from urban schools have equivalent SEF experiences, and very few students participating in SEFs come from rural schools.

Evaluating the Influences of Health Expenditure, Energy Consumption, and Environmental Pollution on Life Expectancy in Asia

This study examines the effects of health expenditure, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, population size, and income on health outcomes in 46 Asian nations between 1997 and 2019. Cross-sectional dependence (CSD) and slope heterogeneity (SH) tests are utilized due to the close linkages between Asian nations as a result of commerce, tourism, religion, and international agreements. The research uses unit root and cointegration tests of the second generation after validating CSD and SH issues. Due to the results of the CSD and SH tests, it is clear that conventional methods of estimation are inappropriate, so a new panel method, the inter autoregressive distributive lag (CS-ARDL) model, is used instead. In addition to CS-ARDL, the study's results were checked with a common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) method and an augmented mean group (AMG) method. According to the CS-ARDL study, higher rates of energy use and healthcare spending lead to better health outcomes for Asian countries over the long run. CO₂ emissions are shown to be harmful to human health, according to the study. The influence of a population's size on health outcomes is shown to be negative in the CS-ARDL and CCEMG, but favorable in the AMG. Only the AMG coefficient is significant. In most instances, the results of the AMG and CCEMG corroborate the results of the CS-ARDL. Among all the factors influencing life expectancy in Asian countries, healthcare spending is the most influential. Hence, to improve health outcomes, Asian countries need to take the required actions to boost health spending, energy consumption, and long-term economic growth. To achieve the best possible health outcomes, Asian countries should also reduce their CO₂ emissions.

A population-based study of administrative data linkage to measure melanoma surgical and pathology quality

Background

Continuous quality improvement is important for cancer systems. However, collecting and compiling quality indicator data can be time-consuming and resource-intensive. Here we explore the utility and feasibility of linked routinely collected health data to capture key elements of quality of care for melanoma in a single-payer, universal health care setting.

Method

This pilot study utilized a retrospective population-based cohort from a previously developed linked administrative data set, with a 65% random sample of all invasive cutaneous melanoma cases diagnosed 2007–2012 in the province of Ontario. Data from the Ontario Cancer Registry was utilized, supplemented with linked pathology report data from Cancer Care Ontario, and other linked administrative data describing health care utilization. Quality indicators identified through provincial guidelines and international consensus were evaluated for potential collection with administrative data and measured where possible.

Results

A total of 7,654 cases of melanoma were evaluated. Ten of 25 (40%) candidate quality indicators were feasible to be collected with the available administrative data. Many indicators (8/25) could not be measured due to unavailable clinical information (e.g. width of clinical margins). Insufficient pathology information (6/25) or health structure information (1/25) were less common reasons. Reporting of recommended variables in pathology reports varied from 65.2% (satellitosis) to 99.6% (body location). For stage IB-II or T1b-T4a melanoma patients where SLNB should be discussed, approximately two-thirds met with a surgeon experienced in SLNB. Of patients undergoing full lymph node dissection, 76.2% had adequate evaluation of the basin.

Conclusions

We found that use of linked administrative data sources is feasible for measurement of melanoma quality in some cases. In those cases, findings suggest opportunities for quality improvement. Consultation with surgeons offering SLNB was limited, and pathology report completeness was sub-optimal, but was prior to routine synoptic reporting. However, to measure more quality indicators, text-based data sources will require alternative approaches to manual collection such as natural language processing or standardized collection. We recommend development of robust data platforms to support continuous re-evaluation of melanoma quality indicators, with the goal of optimizing quality of care for melanoma patients on an ongoing basis.

Hyper IgE Syndrome in an Isolated Population in Israel

Introduction

Hyper IgE syndromes (HIES) are a group of rare primary immunodeficiency characterized by high levels of serum IgE, cold abscesses, pulmonary infections, and eczema. ZNF341 deficiency was described in 2018 in 11 patients clinically diagnosed previously with HIES. Eight of those patients, all offspring of consanguineous couples, are from three families who live in a Muslim village in Israel which has approximately 15,000 residents.

Objective

Our study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of ZNF341 mutation in the population of the village.

Methods

Three hundred DNA samples of females were included in the study. The samples belong to females that were referred to the Meir Medical Center for prenatal genetic testing before pregnancy, during 2017-2019: 200 samples were from the village, and 100 samples of Muslim females were from other villages.

All samples were tested by Sanger sequencing for the ZNF341 mutation (c.904C>T, NM_001282933.1).

Results

Heterozygous nonsense mutation in ZNF341 was found in ten samples (5%) of the study group compared to zero in the control group (p<0.01).

Conclusion

The carrier frequency of the mutation in ZNF341 in the studied village population is 1:20. This high frequency is probably due to founder mutation and consanguineous marriages.

Bell's palsy following vaccination with mRNA (BNT162b2) and inactivated (CoronaVac) SARS-CoV-2 vaccines: a case series and nested case-control study

BACKGROUND

Bell's palsy is a rare adverse event reported in clinical trials of COVID-19 vaccines. However, to our knowledge no population-based study has assessed the association between the inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and Bell's palsy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of Bell's palsy after BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccination.

METHODS

In this case series and nested case-control study done in Hong Kong, we assessed the risk of Bell's palsy within 42 days following vaccination with BNT162b2 (Fosun-BioNTech [equivalent to Pfizer-BioNTech]) or CoronaVac (from Sinovac Biotech, Hong Kong) using data from voluntary surveillance reporting with the Hospital Authority, the COVID-19 Vaccine Adverse Event Online Reporting system for all health-care professionals, and the Hospital Authority's territory-wide electronic health records from the Clinical Data Analysis and Reporting System. We described reported cases of Bell's palsy among vaccine recipients (aged 18-110 years for CoronaVac and aged 16-110 years for BNT162b2). We compared the estimated age-standardised incidence of clinically confirmed cases among individuals who had received the CoronaVac or BNT162b2 vaccination (up to 42 days before presentation) with the background incidence in the population. A nested case-control study was also done using conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratio (OR) for risk of Bell's palsy and vaccination. Cases and controls were matched (1:4) by age, sex, admission setting, and admission date.

FINDINGS

Between February 23 and May 4, 2021, 451 939 individuals received the first dose of CoronaVac and 537 205 individuals received the first dose of BNT162b2. 28 clinically confirmed cases of Bell's palsy were reported following CoronaVac and 16 cases were reported following BNT162b2. The age-standardised incidence of clinically confirmed Bell's palsy was 66·9 cases per 100 000 person-years (95% CI 37·2 to 96·6) following CoronaVac vaccination and 42·8 per 100 000 person-years (19·4 to 66·1) for BNT162b2 vaccination. The age-standardised difference for the incidence compared with the background population was 41·5 (95% CI 11·7 to 71·4) for CoronaVac and 17·0 (-6·6 to 40·6) for BNT162b2, equivalent to an additional 4·8 cases per 100 000 people vaccinated for CoronaVac and 2·0 cases per 100 000 people vaccinated for BNT162b2. In the nested case-control analysis, 298 cases were matched to 1181 controls, and the adjusted ORs were 2·385 (95% CI 1·415 to 4·022) for CoronaVac and 1·755 (0·886 to 3·477) for BNT162b2.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest an overall increased risk of Bell's palsy after CoronaVac vaccination. However, the beneficial and protective effects of the inactivated COVID-19 vaccine far outweigh the risk of this generally self-limiting adverse event. Additional studies are needed in other regions to confirm our findings.

FUNDING

The Food and Health Bureau of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.

TRANSLATION

For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Opportunities for Closing the Gap in HIV Diagnosis, Treatment, and Viral Load Suppression in Children in Malawi: Results From a 2015-2016 Population-based HIV Impact Assessment Survey

BACKGROUND

Control of the pediatric HIV epidemic is hampered by gaps in diagnosis and linkage to effective treatment. The 2015-2016 Malawi Population-based HIV impact assessment data were analyzed to identify gaps in pediatric HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral load suppression.

METHODS

In half of the surveyed households, children ages ≥18 months to <15 years were tested using the national HIV rapid test algorithm. Children ≤18 months reactive by the initial rapid test underwent HIV total nucleic acid polymerase chain reaction confirmatory testing. Blood from HIV-positive children was tested for viral load (VL) and presence of antiretroviral drugs. HIV diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment (ART) use were defined using guardian-reporting or antiretroviral detection.

RESULTS

Of the 6166 children tested, 99 were HIV-positive for a prevalence of 1.5% (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 1.1-1.9) and 8.0% (95% CI: 5.6-10.5) among HIV-exposed children. The prevalence of 1.5% was extrapolated to a national estimate of 119,501 (95% CI: 89,028-149,974) children living with HIV (CLHIV), of whom, 30.7% (95% CI: 20.3-41.1) were previously undiagnosed. Of the 69.3% diagnosed CLHIV, 86.1% (95% CI: 76.8-95.6) were on ART and 57.9% (95% CI: 41.4-74.4) of those on ART had suppressed VL (<1000 HIV RNA copies/mL). Among all CLHIV, irrespective of HIV diagnosis or ART use, 57.7% (95% CI: 45.0-70.5) had unsuppressed VL.

CONCLUSIONS

Critical gaps in HIV diagnosis in children persist in Malawi. The large proportion of CLHIV with unsuppressed VL reflects gaps in diagnosis and need for more effective first- and second-line ART regimens and adherence interventions.

Thyroid autoimmunity and metabolic syndrome: a nationwide population-based study

OBJECTIVE

Recent studies have reported that thyroid hormone levels are associated with metabolic syndrome (MetS) even in euthyroid subjects. However, the association between thyroid autoimmunity and MetS is uncertain. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between thyroid autoimmunity and MetS in a large cohort study of euthyroid subjects.

METHODS

A total of 4775 participants aged ≥19 years from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey VI (2013-2015) with anti-thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb) results and normal thyroid functions were included in this study. Subjects were grouped according to thyroid autoimmunity (positivity of TPOAb). We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) for MetS according to TPOAb positivity using logistic regression models, adjusted for potential confounders.

RESULTS

Of the study subjects, 25% (n = 1206) were diagnosed with MetS. Subjects with MetS showed higher median TPOAb levels (6.3 vs 6.8 IU/mL, P < 0.001) and higher positivity of TPOAb (5 vs 7%, P = 0.002) than those without MetS. There was a significant difference in prevalence of MetS depending on the TPOAb positivity (25% vs 33%, P = 0.002). Subjects with TPOAb positive had a significantly greater risk of abdominal obesity (OR 1.675, 95% CI: 1.302-2.154, P < 0.001), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR: 1.603, 95% CI: 1.244-2.066, P < 0.001) and elevated blood pressure (OR: 1.418, 95% CI: 1.099-1.829, P = 0.007) as compared to those with TPOAb negative. Positivity of TPOAb was a significant risk factor for MetS even after adjusting for confounding variables including age, sex, household income, education, smoking, alcohol consumption, walking activity, thyroid-stimulating hormone and free thyroxine (OR: 1.389, 95% CI: 1.048-1.841, P = 0.022).

CONCLUSION

In euthyroid subjects, thyroid autoimmunity is associated with MetS. Further large longitudinal studies are needed to clarify causality.

Epidemiological features and spatial-temporal distribution of visceral leishmaniasis in mainland China: a population-based surveillance study from 2004 to 2019

BACKGROUND

Although visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was largely brought under control in most regions of China during the previous century, VL cases have rebounded in western and central China in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological features and spatial-temporal distribution of VL in mainland China from 2004 to 2019.

METHODS

Incidence and mortality data for VL during the period 2004-2019 were collected from the Public Health Sciences Data Center of China and annual national epidemic reports of VL, whose data source was the National Diseases Reporting Information System. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to explore the trends of VL. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal clustering analysis were conducted to identify the distribution and risk areas of VL transmission.

RESULTS

A total of 4877 VL cases were reported in mainland China during 2004-2019, with mean annual incidence of 0.0228/100,000. VL incidence showed a decreasing trend in general during our study period (annual percentage change [APC] = -4.2564, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -8.0856 to -0.2677). Among mainly endemic provinces, VL was initially heavily epidemic in Gansu, Sichuan, and especially Xinjiang, but subsequently decreased considerably. In contrast, Shaanxi and Shanxi witnessed significantly increasing trends, especially in 2017-2019. The first-level spatial-temporal aggregation area covered two endemic provinces in northwestern China, including Gansu and Xinjiang, with the gathering time from 2004 to 2011 (relative risk [RR] = 13.91, log-likelihood ratio [LLR] = 3308.87, P < 0.001). The secondary aggregation area was detected in Shanxi province of central China, with the gathering time of 2019 (RR = 1.61, LLR = 4.88, P = 0.041). The epidemic peak of October to November disappeared in 2018-2019, leaving only one peak in March to May.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that VL is still an important endemic infectious disease in China. Epidemic trends in different provinces changed significantly and spatial-temporal aggregation areas shifted from northwestern to central China during our study period. Mitigation strategies, including large-scale screening, insecticide spraying, and health education encouraging behavioral change, in combination with other integrated approaches, are needed to decrease transmission risk in areas at risk, especially in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu provinces.

The population doctrine in cognitive neuroscience

A major shift is happening within neurophysiology: a population doctrine is drawing level with the single-neuron doctrine that has long dominated the field. Population-level ideas have so far had their greatest impact in motor neuroscience, but they hold great promise for resolving open questions in cognition as well. Here, we codify the population doctrine and survey recent work that leverages this view to specifically probe cognition. Our discussion is organized around five core concepts that provide a foundation for population-level thinking: (1) state spaces, (2) manifolds, (3) coding dimensions, (4) subspaces, and (5) dynamics. The work we review illustrates the progress and promise that population-level thinking holds for cognitive neuroscience-for delivering new insight into attention, working memory, decision-making, executive function, learning, and reward processing.

Epidemiology of Pediatric Meningitis in South Korea From 2010 to 2018: A Population-based Retrospective Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Studies evaluating the epidemiology of pediatric meningitis are limited in our region. This study aimed to describe recent trends in the incidence of pediatric meningitis.

METHODS

We estimated national trends in hospitalization rates for pediatric meningitis (<18 years) by analyzing data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment database between 2010 and 2018. Meningitis cases were identified based on International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes and hospitalization rates were calculated.

RESULTS

In this national population-based study, a total of 119,644 hospitalizations and 58 deaths due to pediatric meningitis were identified. The hospitalization rates of pediatric bacterial meningitis have declined by 50.0%, from 3.4 per 100,000 in 2010 to 1.7 per 100,000 in 2018. The mortality rates for bacterial and viral meningitis were 2.0% and 0.002%, respectively. Despite the decreased annual incidence of bacterial meningitis, its mortality rate did not change significantly during the study period. The only risk factor identified for mortality in bacterial meningitis patients among age group, sex, region of residence, and season was age below 1 year (P < 0.001). As children under 1 year have a high-mortality rate (4.2%), patients in this age group require close monitoring. The reasons behind indistinct seasonal patterns of bacterial meningitis warrant further investigation.

CONCLUSIONS

Childhood bacterial meningitis has shown a significant decline in incidence from 2010 to 2018. In contrast, viral meningitis has not shown a trend over time. Knowledge of these changes may aid clinicians in the decision-making process and management of meningitis patients.

A workflow for the relative quantification of multiple fish species from oceanic water samples using environmental DNA (eDNA) to support large-scale fishery surveys

While the number of published marine studies using environmental DNA (eDNA) has increased substantially in recent years, marine fish surveys are still scarce. To examine the potential for eDNA to support marine fisheries monitoring surveys, we optimized an eDNA isolation method, developed a multispecies assay and tested it on eDNA samples collected along the Pacific coast of the United States. Four commercial DNA extraction kits that exploit the capability of the nucleic acids binding a solid phase (two using a silica matrix and two magnetic beads) as well an organic separation method were tested. A species-specific multiplex qPCR assay was developed and tested to simultaneously target Pacific hake (Merluccius productus), Pacific lamprey (Entosphenus tridentatus) and eulachon (Thaleichthys pacificus). The specificity of the assay was tested in silico, in vitro and in natura. Environmental DNA isolation using phenol:chloroform:isoamyl purification with a phase lock was optimized and yielded the highest amount of total and target DNA and was used to extract 46 marine water samples for the detection of the three species of interest. The multiplex qPCR assay used in the quantification process was also optimized to provide convenience and accuracy. Pacific hake was present in 44% of the eDNA samples while the other two species were absent. Here, we present a complete workflow for the simultaneous detection and quantification of multiple marine fish species using eDNA. This workflow supports large-scale at-sea sampling efforts with preservation at ambient temperatures and has demonstrated DNA extraction efficiency and reliability. The multiplex qPCR assay is shown to be sensitive and specific for the purposes of simultaneously monitoring the relative abundance of multiple targeted fish species.

Women With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome Have an Increased Risk of Major Cardiovascular Events: a Population Study

CONTEXT

The effects of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality are unclear.

OBJECTIVE

This work aims to establish the relative risk of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, angina, revascularization, and cardiovascular mortality for women with PCOS.

METHODS

Data were extracted from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum database. Patients with PCOS were matched to controls (1:1) by age, body mass index (BMI) category, and primary care practice. The primary outcome was the time to major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE); a composite end point incorporating MI, stroke, angina, revascularization and cardiovascular mortality. Secondary outcomes were the individual MACE end points.

RESULTS

Of 219 034 individuals with a diagnosis of PCOS, 174 660 (79.7%) met the eligibility criteria and were matched. Crude rates of the composite end point, MI, stroke, angina, revascularization, and cardiovascular mortality were respectively 82.7, 22.7, 27.4, 32.8, 10.5, and 6.97 per 100 000 patient-years for cases, and 64.3, 15.9, 25.7, 19.8, 7.13, and 7.75 per 100 000 patient-years for controls. In adjusted Cox proportional hazard models (CPHMs), the hazard ratios (HRs) were 1.26 (95% CI, 1.13-1.41), 1.38 (95% CI, 1.11-1.72), 1.60 (95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and 1.50 (95% CI, 1.08-2.07) for the composite outcome, MI, angina, and revascularization, respectively. In a time-dependent CPHM, weight gain (HR 1.01; 1.00-1.01), prior type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (HR 2.40; 1.76-3.30), and social deprivation (HR 1.53; 1.11-2.11) increased risk of progression to the composite end point.

CONCLUSION

The risk of incident MI, angina, and revascularization is increased in young women with PCOS. Weight and T2DM are potentially modifiable risk factors amenable to intervention.

Adolescent Thyroid Disorders and Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in Young Adulthood

CONTEXT

Thyroid hormones play a key role in systemic metabolism, yet the relationship between thyroid dysfunction and risk for type 2 diabetes is unclear.

OBJECTIVE

To assess type 2 diabetes risk in adulthood among adolescents with thyroid disorders.

DESIGN AND SETTING

A nationwide, population-based study of Israeli adolescents who were examined before military recruitment during 1988 to 2007 and were followed until December 31, 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

1 382 560 adolescents (mean age 17.3 years).

INTERVENTIONS

The diagnosis of thyroid disorders was based on recent thyroid function tests. Data were linked to the Israeli National Diabetes Registry. Cox proportional hazard models were applied.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Type 2 diabetes incidence.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 18.5 years, 1.12% (69 of 6,152) of adolescents with thyroid disorders were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes vs 0.77% of adolescents without thyroid disorders. The hazard ratio (HR) for type 2 diabetes was 2.3 (95% CI, 1.8-2.9) among those with thyroid disorders, after adjustment for sex, birth-year, body mass index, and sociodemographic confounders. The increased diabetes risk was observed in both men and women, with the presence or absence of obesity, and in the absence of other health conditions and was associated with different types of thyroid disorders. It was also similar when the outcome was defined as type 2 diabetes diagnosed at or before the age of 30 years (HR 2.3, 95% CI, 1.5-3.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid disorders diagnosed in adolescence are a risk factor for early-onset type 2 diabetes in both men and women.

Associations between the spatiotemporal distribution of Kawasaki disease and environmental factors: evidence supporting a multifactorial etiologic model

The etiology of Kawasaki Disease (KD), the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries, remains elusive, but could be multifactorial in nature as suggested by the numerous environmental and infectious exposures that have previously been linked to its epidemiology. There is still a lack of a comprehensive model describing these complex associations. We present a Bayesian disease model that provides insight in the spatiotemporal distribution of KD in Canada from 2004 to 2017. The disease model including environmental factors had improved Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC) compared to the base model which included only spatiotemporal and demographic effects and had excellent performance in recapitulating the spatiotemporal distribution of KD in Canada (98% and 86% spatial and temporal correlations, respectively). The model suggests an association between the distribution of KD and population composition, weather-related factors, aeroallergen exposure, pollution, atmospheric concentration of spores and algae, and the incidence of healthcare encounters for bacterial pneumonia or viral intestinal infections. This model could be the basis of a hypothetical data-driven framework for the spatiotemporal distribution of KD. It also generates novel hypotheses about the etiology of KD, and provides a basis for the future development of a predictive and surveillance model.

Association study of the serum 25(OH)D concentration and myopia in Chinese children

To analyze the serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration in Chinese children with myopia and explore its correlation with myopia.From July to September in 2019, myopic children were collected from the Myopia Influencing Factors Survey Project. The basic information and vision related behaviors of the subjects were collected by questionnaire. The diopter of the children without dilated pupils was measured by the computerized refractometer. Meanwhile, 5 ml fasting venous blood samples were collected for the determination of serum 25(OH)D concentration.A total of 186 children were included in this study, including 90 males and 96 females, with an average age of 8 ± 3.26 years. The detection rate of serum 25(OH)D deficiency in myopic children was 65.59% (122/186). There was statistical significance in the detection rate of serum 25(OH)D deficiency in children with different myopic degrees (χ2 = 6.635, P = .010). The average serum 25(OH)D concentration in myopic children was 14.86 (10.67-18.96) ng/ml, and the difference of serum 25(OH)D concentration in children with different myopia degrees was statistically significant (Z = 20.23, P < .001). Logistic regression analysis showed that after controlling for gender, parental myopia, after-school class, and outdoor activities, the prevalence of developing moderate and high myopia was 2.051 times (95% confidence interval: 1.272-3.724) higher in the serum 25(OH)D deficiency group than in the serum 25(OH)D sufficiency group. There is a positive correlation between serum 25(OH)D concentration and the equivalent spherical degree of myopic children.The study found that serum 25(OH)D concentration is closely related to the prevalence of myopia in Chinese children. The results further support the conclusion that children with a higher level of serum 25(OH)D have a lower prevalence of moderate to high myopia. The results of this study provide a basis for further research into the relationship between vitamin D and visual development in children and its mechanisms.

How individuals change language

Languages emerge and change over time at the population level though interactions between individual speakers. It is, however, hard to directly observe how a single speaker's linguistic innovation precipitates a population-wide change in the language, and many theoretical proposals exist. We introduce a very general mathematical model that encompasses a wide variety of individual-level linguistic behaviours and provides statistical predictions for the population-level changes that result from them. This model allows us to compare the likelihood of empirically-attested changes in definite and indefinite articles in multiple languages under different assumptions on the way in which individuals learn and use language. We find that accounts of language change that appeal primarily to errors in childhood language acquisition are very weakly supported by the historical data, whereas those that allow speakers to change incrementally across the lifespan are more plausible, particularly when combined with social network effects.

Mortality After Trauma Craniotomy Is Decreasing in Older Adults-A Nationwide Population-Based Study

OBJECTIVE

No evidence-based guidelines are available for operative neurosurgical treatment of older patients with traumatic brain injuries (TBIs), and no population-based results of current practice have been reported. The objective of the present study was to investigate the rates of trauma craniotomy operations and later mortality in older adults with TBI in Finland.

METHODS

Nationwide databases were searched for all admissions with a TBI diagnosis and after trauma craniotomy, and later deaths for persons aged ≥60 years from 2004 to 2018.

RESULTS

The study period included 2166 patients (64% men; mean age, 70.3 years) who had undergone TBI-related craniotomy. The incidence rate of operations decreased with a concomitant decrease in adjusted mortality (30-day mortality, P < 0.001; 1-year mortality, P < 0.001) and increase in mean patient age (R² = 0.005; P < 0.001) during the study period. The cumulative mortality was 25% at 30 days and 38% at 1 year. The comorbidities increasing the hazard for 30-day mortality were diabetes, a history of malignancy, peripheral vascular disease, and a history of myocardial infarction. For 1-year mortality, the comorbidities were heart failure and a history of myocardial infarction. Evacuation of an epidural hematoma decreased the hazard for mortality. In contrast, evacuation of an intracerebral hematoma and decompressive craniectomy increased the risk at both 30 days and 1 year.

CONCLUSIONS

Among older adults in Finland, the rate of trauma craniotomy and later mortality has been decreasing although the mean age of operated patients has been increasing. This can be expected to be related to an improved understanding of geriatric TBIs and, consequently, improved selection of patients for targeted therapy.

Regional distribution of myeloma in New Zealand

AIMS

To investigate regional variation in myeloma incidence in New Zealand in order to inform aetiological investigations.

METHODS

All new registrations of myeloma (1991-2016) were extracted from the New Zealand Cancer Registry. Ethnic classifications used prioritised ethnicity. For geographical groupings, 74 Territorial Local Authority (TLA) categories for 2006 and population densities were used. Negative binomial regression was used to estimate incidence rate ratios, 95% confidence intervals and p-values.

RESULTS

Between 1 January 1991 and 31 December 2016, 7,083 myelomas were registered. The Clutha TLA had a significantly lower incidence than the New Zealand average. Compared to Clutha, many regions had a significantly higher incidence, but there was no clear spatial pattern. The highest incidence rate was for Māori men in the North Island. Women had significantly lower incidence than men of the same ethnic group and in the same area.

CONCLUSIONS

As both extremes of myeloma incidence occurred in rural areas, and as all TLAs (except one, Horowhenua) in the two lowest risk categories were rural, it seems unlikely that farming confers an increased risk. Results suggest that some other factor is driving the differences in myeloma incidence by ethnic group. We have provided a baseline of the geographical burden of myeloma in New Zealand.

Increased Incidence of Tinnitus Following a Hyperthyroidism Diagnosis: A Population-Based Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

An association between thyroid disease and tinnitus has been described previously but further longitudinal, population-based studies are limited.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the incidence of tinnitus in patients with hyperthyroidism in a national sample, and to identify risk level and associated factors for tinnitus in hyperthyroidism patients.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study. Patient data were collected from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database (LHID 2000), which includes national claims data of patient expenditures for admissions or ambulatory care from 1996 to 2011.

SETTING

Taiwan hospitals and clinics providing healthcare nationwide.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients aged 20 years and older with newly diagnosed hyperthyroidism (ICD-9-CM code 242) between 2000-2010 were selected as the study cohort. Hyperthyroidism patient cohort were identified from the LHID2000. Those with tinnitus history (ICD-9-CM code 388.3) before the index date (first hyperthyroidism diagnosis), younger than 20 years, and with incomplete demographic data were excluded. The non-hyperthyroidism cohort included patients with no history of hyperthyroidism and no documented tinnitus.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incidence of tinnitus was the primary outcome. Baseline demographic factors and comorbidities possibly associated with tinnitus, including age, sex, and comorbidities of hearing loss, vertigo, insomnia and anxiety, were retrieved from the LHID 2000. Patients were followed until end of 2011.

RESULTS

During the study period, 780 (4.9%) hyperthyroidism patients and 2007 (3.2%) non-hyperthyroidism controls developed tinnitus. Incidence rate of tinnitus in the hyperthyroidism cohort was significantly higher in hyperthyroidism cohort (7.86 vs. 5.05 per 1000 person-years) than that in non-hyperthyroidism cohort. A higher proportion of patients with hyperthyroidism had comorbid insomnia (45.1% vs. 30.9%) and anxiety (14.0% vs. 5.73%) than those without hyperthyroidism. After adjusting for age, gender and comorbidities (vertigo, insomnia, anxiety, hearing loss), hyperthyroidism patients had 1.38-fold higher risk of tinnitus (95% CI = 1.27-1.50) than those without hyperthyroidism.

CONCLUSIONS

This large population-based study suggests patients with diagnosed hyperthyroidism was more prone to develop tinnitus. Our findings suggest evaluation for comorbid vertigo, insomnia, anxiety and/or hearing loss may identify patients who are at high risk of developing tinnitus in patients with hyperthyroidism.

Virulence and Molecular Diversity in the Kabatiella zeae Population Causing Maize Eyespot in China

Maize eyespot, caused by Kabatiella zeae, has become a major yield-limiting factor in maize planting areas in northeast China. Limited information is available on pathotypes, virulence, and the genetic diversity of the K. zeae population. We analyzed virulence and genetic diversity of 103 K. zeae isolates collected from six provinces in China with differential hosts and the amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) technique, respectively. To evaluate the virulence, 103 isolates were inoculated on nine differential hosts (maize inbred lines)-E28, Shen137, Qi319, B73, Danhuang34, Zi330, Mo17, Huangzaosi, and CN165-and grouped into 23 pathotypes and three virulence groups according to the coded triplet nomenclature system on differential hosts. AFLP analysis resolved the set of isolates into four genetic diversity clusters (DICE similarity values of 76%). Genetic variation of K. zeae among and between pathotypes revealed that the pathogen population had a high genotypic diversity. The correlation between pathotypes, virulence, and genetic diversity grouping was low. A correlation between AFLP groups and geographic locations was detected.

[Population structure and point pattern analysis of rare and endangered plant Helianthemum soongoricum in Ningxia, China]

Helianthemum songaricum is a second-class protected plant in China, threatened by decreased population size and fragmentation of distribution area. It is a new record species in Ningxia. We analyzed population structure, spatial distribution, and relationship of different age classes of H. songaricum living in sandy and gravel habitats. The results showed that majority of H. songaricum individuals were belonged to age-class Ⅲ. The age structure of the population was inverted triangle. The population was at a declining stage. The spatial pattern and spatial association between different age class of H. songaricum were greatly affected by habitat condition, with strong dependence on spatial scale. Compared with sandy habitat, H. songaricum population in gravel habitat tended to be clustered distribution, with a more obvious positive correlation among different age classes. The difference between two habitats was related to environmental condition and plant community structure. H. songaricum from age-class Ⅰ and Ⅱ had mutually dependent ecological relationships.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australian educational settings: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

School closures have occurred globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, empiric data on transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among children and in educational settings are scarce. In Australia, most schools have remained open during the first epidemic wave, albeit with reduced student physical attendance at the epidemic peak. We examined SARS-CoV-2 transmission among children and staff in schools and early childhood education and care (ECEC) settings in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW).

METHODS

Laboratory-confirmed paediatric (aged ≤18 years) and adult COVID-19 cases who attended a school or ECEC setting while considered infectious (defined as 24 h before symptom onset based on national guidelines during the study period) in NSW from Jan 25 to April 10, 2020, were investigated for onward transmission. All identified school and ECEC settings close contacts were required to home quarantine for 14 days, and were monitored and offered SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid testing if symptomatic. Enhanced investigations in selected educational settings included nucleic acid testing and SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing in symptomatic and asymptomatic contacts. Secondary attack rates were calculated and compared with state-wide COVID-19 rates.

FINDINGS

15 schools and ten ECEC settings had children (n=12) or adults (n=15) attend while infectious, with 1448 contacts monitored. Of these, 633 (43·7%) of 1448 had nucleic acid testing, or antibody testing, or both, with 18 secondary cases identified (attack rate 1·2%). Five secondary cases (three children; two adults) were identified (attack rate 0·5%; 5/914) in three schools. No secondary transmission occurred in nine of ten ECEC settings among 497 contacts. However, one outbreak in an ECEC setting involved transmission to six adults and seven children (attack rate 35·1%; 13/37). Across all settings, five (28·0%) of 18 secondary infections were asymptomatic (three infants [all aged 1 year], one adolescent [age 15 years], and one adult).

INTERPRETATION

SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates were low in NSW educational settings during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave, consistent with mild infrequent disease in the 1·8 million child population. With effective case-contact testing and epidemic management strategies and associated small numbers of attendances while infected, children and teachers did not contribute significantly to COVID-19 transmission via attendance in educational settings. These findings could be used to inform modelling and public health policy regarding school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

FUNDING

NSW Government Department of Health.

Population pharmacokinetics of lopinavir/ritonavir in Covid-19 patients

Objective

To develop a population pharmacokinetic model for lopinavir boosted by ritonavir in coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) patients.

Methods

Concentrations of lopinavir/ritonavir were assayed by an accredited LC-MS/MS method. The population pharmacokinetics of lopinavir was described using non-linear mixed-effects modeling (NONMEM version 7.4). After determination of the base model that better described the data set, the influence of covariates (age, body weight, height, body mass index (BMI), gender, creatinine, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine aminotransferase (ALT), C reactive protein (CRP), and trough ritonavir concentrations) was tested on the model.

Results

From 13 hospitalized patients (4 females, 9 males, age = 64 ± 16 years), 70 lopinavir/ritonavir plasma concentrations were available for analysis. The data were best described by a one-compartment model with a first-order input (KA). Among the covariates tested on the PK parameters, only the ritonavir trough concentrations had a significant effect on CL/F and improved the fit. Model-based simulations with the final parameter estimates under a regimen lopinavir/ritonavir 400/100 mg b.i.d. showed a high variability with median concentration between 20 and 30 mg/L (C_min/C_max) and the 90% prediction intervals within the range 1–100 mg/L.

Conclusion

According to the estimated 50% effective concentration of lopinavir against SARS-CoV-2 virus in Vero E6 cells (16.7 mg/L), our model showed that at steady state, a dose of 400 mg b.i.d. led to 40% of patients below the minimum effective concentration while a dose of 1200 mg b.i.d. will reduce this proportion to 22%.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1007/s00228-020-03020-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Neanderthal introgression reintroduced functional ancestral alleles lost in Eurasian populations

Neanderthal ancestry remains across modern Eurasian genomes and introgressed sequences influence diverse phenotypes. Here, we demonstrate that introgressed sequences reintroduced thousands of ancestral alleles that were lost in Eurasian populations before introgression. Our simulations and variant effect predictions argue that these reintroduced alleles (RAs) are more likely to be tolerated by modern humans than are introgressed Neanderthal-derived alleles (NDAs) due to their distinct evolutionary histories. Consistent with this, we show enrichment for RAs and depletion for NDAs on introgressed haplotypes with expression quantitative trait loci (eQTL) and phenotype associations. Analysis of available cross-population eQTLs and massively parallel reporter assay data show that RAs commonly influence gene expression independent of linked NDAs. We further validate these independent effects for one RA in vitro. Finally, we demonstrate that NDAs are depleted for regulatory activity compared to RAs, while RAs have activity levels similar to non-introgressed variants. In summary, our study reveals that Neanderthal introgression reintroduced thousands of lost ancestral variants with gene regulatory activity and that these RAs were more tolerated than NDAs. Thus, RAs and their distinct evolutionary histories must be considered when evaluating the effects of introgression.

The diagnostic performance of CA125 for the detection of ovarian and non-ovarian cancer in primary care: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The serum biomarker cancer antigen 125 (CA125) is widely used as an investigation for possible ovarian cancer in symptomatic women presenting to primary care. However, its diagnostic performance in this setting is unknown. We evaluated the performance of CA125 in primary care for the detection of ovarian and non-ovarian cancers.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We studied women in the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink with a CA125 test performed between 1 May 2011-31 December 2014. Ovarian and non-ovarian cancers diagnosed in the year following CA125 testing were identified from the cancer registry. Women were categorized by age: <50 years and ≥50 years. Conventional measures of test diagnostic accuracy, including sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value, were calculated for the standard CA125 cut-off (≥35 U/ml). The probability of a woman having cancer at each CA125 level between 1-1,000 U/ml was estimated using logistic regression. Cancer probability was also estimated on the basis of CA125 level and age in years using logistic regression. We identified CA125 levels equating to a 3% estimated cancer probability: the "risk threshold" at which the UK National Institute for Health and Care Excellence advocates urgent specialist cancer investigation. A total of 50,780 women underwent CA125 testing; 456 (0.9%) were diagnosed with ovarian cancer and 1,321 (2.6%) with non-ovarian cancer. Of women with a CA125 level ≥35 U/ml, 3.4% aged <50 years and 15.2% aged ≥50 years had ovarian cancer. Of women with a CA125 level ≥35 U/ml who were aged ≥50 years and who did not have ovarian cancer, 20.4% were diagnosed with a non-ovarian cancer. A CA125 value of 53 U/ml equated to a 3% probability of ovarian cancer overall. This varied by age, with a value of 104 U/ml in 40-year-old women and 32 U/ml in 70-year-old women equating to a 3% probability. The main limitations of our study were that we were unable to determine why CA125 tests were performed and that our findings are based solely on UK primary care data, so caution is need in extrapolating them to other healthcare settings.

CONCLUSIONS

CA125 is a useful test for ovarian cancer detection in primary care, particularly in women ≥50 years old. Clinicians should also consider non-ovarian cancers in women with high CA125 levels, especially if ovarian cancer has been excluded, in order to prevent diagnostic delay. Our results enable clinicians and patients to determine the estimated probability of ovarian cancer and all cancers at any CA125 level and age, which can be used to guide individual decisions on the need for further investigation or referral.

Issues of biopolitics of reproduction in post-war Greece

The Greek biopolitics of reproduction during the post-war period was determined by the demographic figures. Instead of a rise in births, Greece experienced a constant downward trajectory of the birth rate throughout the second half of the twentieth century. The country also witnessed population instability due to the massive immigration in the 1960s and the wave of repatriation in the next decade. The article explores the state's biopolitics in order to achieve demographic equilibrium by adopting a pronatalist perspective. The construction of biopolitics was influenced by the consecutive wars of the first half of the century resulting in the denial of any means suspected of reducing the birth rate, such as contraception and abortion. In parallel, the article investigates the attempts of a group of eugenicists to impose to the state authorities their own views on reproduction control. The key debates were birth control and abortion because these issues of reproduction were entangled with major social fermentations caused by urbanization, modernization, eugenics, and feminism. The Constitution of 1974 was instrumental in changing the biopolitics of reproduction by introducing equal rights to men and women. It provoked a series of legal transformations with regard to marriage, family, and reproduction.

Effect of COVID-19 lockdown on child protection medical assessments: a retrospective observational study in Birmingham, UK

OBJECTIVES

To determine any change in referral patterns and outcomes in children (0-18) referred for child protection medical examination (CPME) during the COVID-19 pandemic compared with previous years.

DESIGN

Retrospective observational study, analysing routinely collected clinical data from CPME reports in a rapid response to the pandemic lockdown.

SETTING

Birmingham Community Healthcare NHS Trust, which provides all routine CPME for Birmingham, England, population 1.1 million including 288 000 children.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged under 18 years attending CPME during an 18-week period from late February to late June during the years 2018-2020.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Numbers of referrals, source of disclosure and outcomes from CPME.

RESULTS

There were 78 CPME referrals in 2018, 75 in 2019 and 47 in 2020, this was a 39.7% (95% CI 12.4% to 59.0%) reduction in referrals from 2018 to 2020, and a 37.3% (95% CI 8.6% to 57.4%) reduction from 2019 to 2020. There were fewer CPME referrals initiated by school staff in 2020, 12 (26%) compared with 36 (47%) and 38 (52%) in 2018 and 2019, respectively. In all years 75.9% of children were known to social care prior to CPME, and 94% of CPME concluded that there were significant safeguarding concerns.

CONCLUSIONS

School closure due to COVID-19 may have harmed children as child abuse has remained hidden. There needs to be either mandatory attendance at schools in future or viable alternatives found. There may be a significant increase in safeguarding referrals when schools fully reopen as children disclose the abuse they have experienced at home.

Chronic kidney disease in Cameroon: a scoping review

OBJECTIVES

This scoping review sought to summarize available data on the prevalence, associated factors, etiology, comorbidities, treatment, cost and mortality of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in Cameroon.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Scopus and African Journals Online from database inception to 31 March, 2020 to identify all studies published on the prevalence, associated factors, etiology, comorbidities, treatment, cost and mortality of CKD in Cameroon.

RESULTS

Thirty studies were included. The prevalence of CKD varied from 3 to 14.1 and 10.0%-14.2% in rural and urban areas, respectively. The prevalence of CKD in patients with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and human immunodeficiency virus was 12.4-50.0, 18.5%, and 3.0-47.2%, respectively. Hypertension (22.3-59.1%), chronic glomerulonephritis (15.8-56.2%), and diabetes mellitus (15.8-56.2%) were the most common causes of CKD. The cause was unknown in 13.5-17.0% of the cases. Advanced age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and obesity were frequent associated factors. Hemodialysis was the main treatment modality in patients with End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD). The monthly cost of management of non-dialyzed CKD was 163 US dollars. The one-year mortality rate of ESRD was 26.8-38.6%.

CONCLUSION

Chronic kidney disease affects about one in 10 adults in the general population in Cameroon. Patients with hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and human immunodeficiency virus bear the greatest burden of CKD in Cameroon. Advanced age, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and obesity are major factors associated with CKD. Chronic kidney disease in Cameroon is associated with high morbidity and mortality and huge economic cost on the patient.

Communicating Evidence about the Causes of Obesity and Support for Obesity Policies: Two Population-Based Survey Experiments

Public support for numerous obesity policies is low, which is one barrier to their implementation. One reason for this low support is the tendency to ascribe obesity to failings of willpower as opposed to the environment. Correlational evidence supports this position. However, the experimental evidence is mixed. In two experimental studies, participants were randomised to receive no message, messages about the environment's influence on obesity (Study 1 & 2), or messages about the environment's influence on human behaviour (Study 1). We investigated whether communicating these messages changed support for obesity policies and beliefs about the causes of obesity. Participants were recruited from nationally representative samples in Great Britain (Study 1 & 2) and the USA (Study 2) (total n = 4391). Study 2 was designed to replicate existing research. Neither study found evidence that communicating the messages increased support for obesity policies or strengthened beliefs about the environment's role in obesity. Study 2, therefore, did not replicate two earlier experimental studies. Instead, the studies reported here suggest that people's beliefs about the causes of obesity are resistant to change in response to evidence and are, therefore, not a promising avenue to increase support for obesity policies.

Biomarkers of Exposure among USA Adult Hookah Users: Results from Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study (2013-2014)

Hookah smoking has become common in the USA, especially among young adults. This study measured biomarkers of exposure to known tobacco product toxicants in a population-based sample of exclusive, established hookah users. Urinary biomarker data from 1753 adults in Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study were used to compare geometric mean concentrations of biomarkers of exposure in exclusive, established past 30-day hookah users to never users of tobacco. Geometric mean ratios were calculated comparing hookah user groups with never users adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, past 30-day marijuana use, secondhand smoke exposure and creatinine. Past 30-day hookah users (n = 98) had 10.6 times the urinary cotinine level of never tobacco users. Compared to never tobacco users, past 30-day hookah users had 2.3 times the level of the carcinogen 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanol (NNAL), a metabolite of the tobacco-specific nitrosamine (TSNA) 4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone (NNK), 1.3 times higher polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) 3-hydroxyfluorene and 1-hydroxypyrene, 1.8 times higher levels of acrylonitrile, 1.3 times higher levels of acrylamide, and 1.2 times higher levels of acrolein exposure. These data indicate that hookah use is a significant source of exposure to nicotine, carcinogens, and respiratory toxicants.

Risk of Mitral Valve Prolapse in Patients with Keratoconus in Taiwan: A Population-Based Cohort Study

This retrospective, nationwide, matched-cohort study included 4488 new-onset keratoconus (KCN) patients, ≥12 years old, recruited between 2004 and 2011 from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The control group included 26,928 non-KCN patients selected from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000. Information for each patient was collected and tracked from the index date until December 2013. The incidence rate of mitral valve prolapse (MVP) was 1.77 times (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09–2.88; p = 0.0206) higher in KCN patients ≥40 years old and 1.49 times (95% CI = 1.12–1.98; p = 0.0060) higher in female KCN patients than in controls. After using the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to adjust for potential confounders, including hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and congestive heart failure, KCN maintained an independent risk factor, MVP being 1.77 times (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) = 1.77, 95% CI = 1.09–2.88) and 1.48 times (adjusted HR = 1.48, 95% CI = 1.11–1.97) more likely to develop in patients ≥40 years old and female patients in the study cohort, respectively. We found that KCN patients ≥40 years of age and female KCN patients have increased risks of MVP. Therefore, it is recommended that KCN patients should be alerted to MVP.

Associations between essential metals exposure and metabolic syndrome (MetS): Exploring the mediating role of systemic inflammation in a general Chinese population

BACKGROUND

Essential metals have been reported to be associated with metabolic diseases. However, the relationships between essential metals exposure and Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is still uncertain, and the underlying mechanisms of the association remain unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the associations of urinary essential metals with MetS prevalence; and further to explore potential role of systemic inflammation biomarker, C-reactive protein (CRP), in relationships between essential metals exposure and MetS prevalence in a cross-sectional study.

METHODS

Concentrations of 8 urinary essential metals and plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) were quantified in 3272 adults from Wuhan-Zhuhai cohort. Urinary essential metals were adjusted by the corresponding urinary creatinine concentrations and reported as μg/mmol creatinine. Multivariable logistic regression and linear regression models were used to evaluate dose-response relationships between essential metals, plasma CRP, and MetS prevalence. Mediation analysis was performed to investigate the role of plasma CRP in the associations between urinary essential metals and MetS prevalence.

RESULTS

In the single-metal models, we observed positive dose-dependent relationships of urinary copper and zinc with MetS prevalence. Compared with the lowest quartiles of urinary metals, the ORs (95% CI) of MetS in the highest quartiles were 1.40 (1.03, 1.91) for urinary copper and 2.07 (1.51, 2.84) for zinc, respectively. The dose-dependent relationships of zinc and copper with MetS remained significant in the multiple-metal models and Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR) models. No significant associations were observed between others essential metals (e.g. manganese, iron, cobalt, selenium, chromium, molybdenum) and MetS in this general population (all P value > 0.05). In addition, urinary copper and zinc increased monotonically with plasma CRP elevation, and plasma CRP was positively associated with the MetS prevalence. Mediation analysis indicated that plasma CRP mediated 5.2% and 3.2% in the associations of urinary copper and zinc with MetS prevalence, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated concentrations of urinary copper and zinc were associated with increased prevalence of MetS. Systemic inflammation may play an important role in the associations of copper and zinc exposure with MetS.

Mortality 1970-2019

The law of March 2019 established the municipal epidemiological report to make easier the rapid and lowresource monitoring of the exposed population. Environmental observatory active in Trino since 2014 has equipped this tool and making the first evalution of the risk with census sections from 1970 to 2018. The result highlighted that overall mortality (for total gender) show a decreasing trend while for oncological diseases the results are more difficult to interpret especially in areas close to former industrial sites or contaminated sites. Next step is producing a REC with data for 2019 and divided by gender.

Five-year mortality trends associated with chronic pancreatitis in South Korea: A population based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is associated with all-cause and cancer-related mortality; however, the risk of mortality associated with alcoholic and non-alcoholic CP remains controversial. This study investigated whether CP increased the risk of 5-year all-cause and cancer-specific mortality compared to a control population.

METHODS

This population-based study used data from a sample cohort of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database in South Korea. CP was defined as disease code K86.0 (alcohol-induced CP) and K86.1 (other CP and non-alcoholic CP) from the tenth edition of the International Classification of Diseases.

RESULTS

The prevalence of chronic alcoholic pancreatitis increased from 0.01% in 2002 to 0.07% in 2015, and the prevalence of chronic non-alcoholic pancreatitis increased from 0.08% in 2002 to 0.50% in 2015. In the 2010 NHIS cohort (n = 826,909), CP was associated with an increased risk of 5-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.25, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25 to 1.66, P < 0.001). Additionally, non-alcoholic CP was associated with an increased risk of 5-year all-cause mortality (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.27 to 1.71, P < 0.001); in contrast, alcohol-induced CP was not significantly associated with mortality risk (P = 0.569). Similar tendencies were observed for the 5-year cancer-related mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

In South Korea, the prevalence of alcoholic and non-alcoholic CP increased during 2002-2015. CP may be an independent risk factor for 5-year all-cause and cancer-related mortality. In this study, this association was more evident in patients with non-alcoholic CP.

Thyroxine-binding globulin, peripheral deiodinase activity, and thyroid autoantibody status in association of phthalates and phenolic compounds with thyroid hormones in adult population

Exposure to consumer chemicals such as phthalates and phenolic compounds has been associated with thyroid hormone disruption in humans. However, information related to factors that may influence such associations, e.g., transport and activation of the hormones, and autoimmunity status, is limited. In the present study, we employed a subpopulation of adults (n = 1,254) who participated in the Korean National Environmental Health Survey (KoNEHS) 2015-2017, and associated urinary concentrations of major phthalate metabolites, bisphenol A (BPA), and parabens, with thyroid hormone-related measures, including free and total T3 and T4, TSH, thyroxine-binding globulin (TBG), calculated peripheral deiodinase (DIO) activity, and thyroid autoantibodies of thyroperoxidase (TPO) and thyroglobulin (Tg). Phthalate metabolites were negatively associated with total T4 and free T3, and positively associated with total T3. These observations could be explained by TBG levels and calculated peripheral DIO activity that were positively associated with phthalates exposure. In contrast, BPA was positively associated with total T4 and negatively associated with total T3, without any changes in TBG concentration. Serum TPO and Tg antibodies were not associated with urinary phthalate metabolites and BPA. However, thyroid autoantibody status appeared to modulate the association of some phthalates with thyroid hormones. For parabens, little to negligible association was observed. The results of our observation show potential underlying mechanisms of phthalates-induced thyroid hormone disruption, and suggests the importance of consideration of thyroid autoimmunity status in association studies for thyroid disrupting chemicals.

Child school injury in Lebanon: A study to assess injury incidence, severity and risk factors

BACKGROUND

School-based injuries represent a sizeable portion of child injuries. This study investigated the rates of school-based injuries in Lebanon, examining injury mechanisms, outcomes and associated risk factors.

METHODS

Data were prospectively collected by intern school nurses at 11 private schools for the 2018-2019 academic year. Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed. Chi-square comparisons were conducted to determine the significance of any differences in injury rates between boys and girls for each category of school.

RESULTS

4,619 injury cases were collected. The yearly rate for school injuries was 419.1 per 1,000 children for the year 2018-2019. Boys demonstrated a significantly higher injury rate for all mechanisms of injuries, with the exception of being injured while walking, injured in the gym/sports areas, and other areas outside the playground and classroom. Elementary school children had the highest rate of injuries, nearly 2.4 times higher than kindergarten, 2.8 times higher than middle school, and 14.5 times higher than high school. Injuries to the face, upper extremities, and lower extremities were nearly 3 times more common than injuries to other areas of the body. Bumps/hits and bruises were most common-almost 3 times more likely than all other injury types. Injuries were mainly minor or moderate in severity-severe injuries were about 10 times less likely. Most injuries were unintentional, with rates nearly 5 times higher than those with unclear intent and 12 times higher than intentional injuries.

CONCLUSIONS

School injuries represent a relatively common problem. Compliance with playground safety standards coupled with the implementation of injury prevention strategies and active supervision at schools can curtail child injuries and ensure a safe and injury-free school environment.

SimSurvey: An R package for comparing the design and analysis of surveys by simulating spatially-correlated populations

Populations often show complex spatial and temporal dynamics, creating challenges in designing and implementing effective surveys. Inappropriate sampling designs can potentially lead to both under-sampling (reducing precision) and over-sampling (through the extensive and potentially expensive sampling of correlated metrics). These issues can be difficult to identify and avoid in sample surveys of fish populations as they tend to be costly and comprised of multiple levels of sampling. Population estimates are therefore affected by each level of sampling as well as the pathway taken to analyze such data. Though simulations are a useful tool for exploring the efficacy of specific sampling strategies and statistical methods, there are a limited number of tools that facilitate the simulation testing of a range of sampling and analytical pathways for multi-stage survey data. Here we introduce the R package SimSurvey, which has been designed to simplify the process of simulating surveys of age-structured and spatially-distributed populations. The package allows the user to simulate age-structured populations that vary in space and time and explore the efficacy of a range of built-in or user-defined sampling protocols to reproduce the population parameters of the known population. SimSurvey also includes a function for estimating the stratified mean and variance of the population from the simulated survey data. We demonstrate the use of this package using a case study and show that it can reveal unexpected sources of bias and be used to explore design-based solutions to such problems. In summary, SimSurvey can serve as a convenient, accessible and flexible platform for simulating a wide range of sampling strategies for fish stocks and other populations that show complex structuring. Various statistical approaches can then be applied to the results to test the efficacy of different analytical approaches.

New Data on the Expansion of Eurytemora Giesbrecht (Copepoda: Calanoida) in the Russian Arctic Region

As a result of studying different populations of crustaceans of the genus Eurytemora Giesbrecht from the inland water bodies of the basins of the White Sea, the Pechora Sea, the Lena River delta, and Pacific coast of the United States, the species Eurytemora gracilicauda Akatova 1949 has been found along the entire northern border of the Russian Eurasia, while North American E. americana Williams 1906 has not been registered within these limits. Clear morphological and molecular genetic differences between E. gracilicauda and E. americana are presented.

Early Life Exposure to Perfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) and ADHD: A Meta-Analysis of Nine European Population-Based Studies

INTRODUCTION

To date, the evidence for an association between perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) exposure and attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is inconclusive.

OBJECTIVE

We investigated the association between early life exposure to perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), and ADHD in a collaborative study including nine European population-based studies, encompassing 4,826 mother-child pairs.

METHODS

Concentrations of PFOS and PFOA were measured in maternal serum/plasma during pregnancy, or in breast milk, with different timing of sample collection in each cohort. We used a validated pharmacokinetic model of pregnancy and lactation to estimate concentrations of PFOS and PFOA in children at birth and at 3, 6, 12, and 24 months of age. We classified ADHD using recommended cutoff points for each instrument used to derive symptoms scores. We used multiple imputation for missing covariates, logistic regression to model the association between PFAS exposure and ADHD in each study, and combined all adjusted study-specific effect estimates using random-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 399 children were classified as having ADHD, with a prevalence ranging from 2.3% to 7.3% in the studies. Early life exposure to PFOS or PFOA was not associated with ADHD during childhood [odds ratios (ORs) ranging from 0.96 (95% CI: 0.87, 1.06) to 1.02 (95% CI: 0.93, 1.11)]. Results from stratified models suggest potential differential effects of PFAS related to child sex and maternal education.

CONCLUSION

We did not identify an increased prevalence of ADHD in association with early life exposure to PFOS and PFOA. However, stratified analyses suggest that there may be an increased prevalence of ADHD in association with PFAS exposure in girls, in children from nulliparous women, and in children from low-educated mothers, all of which warrant further exploration. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP5444.

Anthropometric Characteristics of Tunisian Population in Comparison to the World

BACKGROUND

Anthropometry is the one and only universally applicable, inexpensive and non-invasive method for studying the proportions of the human body. Anthropometric measurements reflect nutritional status and health, but can also be used to predict skills, health status and survival. It is therefore a reliable tool, but currently underused, to guide public health policies.

AIM

Therefore, this study investigated anthropometric characters of Tunisian people and compared it with those of other nationalities.

METHODS

429 subjects have participated in this study (322 men and 107 women), aged between 20 and 85. Anthropometric measurements used in this study were body mass, body size, thigh circumference, lower limbs length and body mass index.

RESULTS

With an average body size of 171 cm for men and 157 cm for women, Tunisians were close to neighboring countries. Nevertheless, with a body mass of 77.23 kg and 72.66 kg and a BMI of 26.48 and 29.18 respectively for men and women, Tunisia has the highest prevalence of obesity in the region, especially for women. Several anthropometric correlations have also been noticed such as relationships between thigh circumference, BMI, body mass, lower limbs length, and body size.

CONCLUSION

Obesity is proving to be a public health problem for which effective strategies and measures are needed.

Oxycodone, Hydromorphone, and the Risk of Suicide: A Retrospective Population-Based Case-Control Study

INTRODUCTION

Opioids have been increasingly associated with suicide, but whether they are independent contributors is unclear. Oxycodone and hydromorphone are commonly prescribed high-potency opioids that can differentially affect mood.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to explore whether oxycodone and hydromorphone are differentially associated with suicide.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective population-based case-control study in Ontario, Canada, from 1992 to 2014. Using coronial data, we defined case subjects as individuals who died by suicide involving an opioid overdose. Each of these was matched with up to four controls who died of accidental opioid overdose. We ascertained exposure to oxycodone, hydromorphone, and other opioids from postmortem toxicology testing. We used odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals to examine whether opioid-related suicide was disproportionately associated with oxycodone relative to hydromorphone.

RESULTS

We identified 438 suicides and 1212 accidental deaths, each of which involved either oxycodone or hydromorphone but not both. The median age at death was 49 years and 51% were men. After adjusting for a history of self-harm, psychiatric illness, and exposure to other opioids, we found that oxycodone was more strongly associated with suicide than hydromorphone (adjusted odds ratio 1.59; 95% confidence interval 1.20-2.11). In a secondary analysis, we observed a trend of similar magnitude in which combined exposure to oxycodone and hydromorphone was more strongly associated with suicide than hydromorphone alone (adjusted odds ratio 1.68; 95% confidence interval 0.92-3.09).

CONCLUSIONS

While preliminary, these findings support the possibility that some high-potency opioids might independently influence the risk of suicide in susceptible individuals.

The association between frailty and incidence of dementia in Beijing: findings from 10/66 dementia research group population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

The relationship between frailty and dementia is unclear and there are very few population-based studies regarding this issue in China. The purpose of this study is to estimate the association between frailty and incident dementia in China, and to explore different effects of frailty established by three definitions of frailty on dementia incidence.

METHODS

A five-year prospective cohort study was carried out in 2022 participants aged 65 years and over in urban and rural sites in Beijing, China. The participants were interviewed by trained community primary health care workers from 2004 to 2009. Frailty was defined using modified Fried frailty phenotype, physical frailty definition, and multidimensional frailty definition. Dementia was diagnosed using the 10/66 dementia criterion for calculating cumulative incidence. Both competing risk regression models and Cox proportional hazards models were applied to examine the associations between frailty at baseline and five-year cumulative incidence of dementia.

RESULTS

At the end of follow-up the five-year cumulative incidence rates of dementia with frailty and without frailty defined by the modified Fried frailty were 21.0% and 9.6%, those defined by the physical frailty were 19.9% and 9.0%, and those defined by the multidimensional frailty were 22.8% and 8.9%, respectively. Compared with non-frail participants, frail people had a higher risk of incident dementia using multidimensional frailty definition after adjusting covariates based on competing risk regression model (HR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.01~2.17) and Cox proportional hazards model (HR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.07~2.26). The association between frailty and incident dementia was statistically significant in participants in the upper three quartiles of age (aged 68 years and over) using the multidimensional frailty definition based on the competing risk regression model (HR = 1.61, 95% CI 1.06~2.43) and Cox proportional hazard model (HR = 1.76, 95% CI 1.19~2.61).

CONCLUSIONS

Multidimensional frailty may play an inherent role in incident dementia, especially in the people aged over 68, which is significant for distinguishing high risk people and determining secondary prevention strategies for dementia patients.

Pancreatic cancer incidence and survival and the role of specialist centres in resection rates in England, 2000 to 2014: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

The aim was to compare population-based survival for exocrine pancreatic cancer in England in the 23 regions covered by specialist centres. The centres were initiated in 2001, covering populations of 2-4 million.

METHODS

We examined incidence for adults diagnosed with a pancreatic exocrine cancer during 1995-2014 and age-standardised net survival up to five years after diagnosis for patients diagnosed during 2000-2013. We examined variation in regional resection rates and survival for patients diagnosed during 2010-2013. The data were extracted from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service.

RESULTS

Age-standardised annual incidence rates of exocrine pancreatic cancer increased from 17.1 per 100,000 during 1995-1999 to 18.7 during 2010-2014. Age-standardised one-year and five-year net survival increased from 17.9% and 3.6%, respectively, for 2000-2009, to 21.6% and 4.2% during 2010-2013. There were 2086 (8.9%) resections among 23,415 patients diagnosed with an exocrine tumour in 2010-2013. The proportion ranged from 5.1% to 19.6% between centres. Among resected patients, survival was 73.0% at one year and 20.2% at five years. Of the total 2118 resected patients, 18 (0.9%) were at stage 1; 34 (1.6%) at stage 2; 791 (37.3%) at stage 3 and 140 (6.6%) at stage 4, although 53.6% of stage information was missing. Five-year survival was 2.1% for those who were not resected. The number of resections performed in each centre was not correlated with one-year survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite improvements in the management of pancreatic cancer in England with the introduction of specialist centres, resection rates remain relatively low, and survival remains lower than in comparably wealthy countries.