Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults

Predicted Heart Age and Life's Essential 8 Among U.S. Adults: NHANES 2015-March 2020

INTRODUCTION

This study examined the association between American Heart Association's (AHA) cardiovascular health (CVH) metrics, Life's Essential 8 (LE8), and predicted heart age among U.S. adults.

METHODS

The sample comprised 7,075 participants aged 30-74 years without CVD and/or stroke from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2015-March 2020. LE8 was measured according to AHA's metrics (overall score ranging from 0 to 100 points), and nonlaboratory-based Framingham Risk Score was used to estimate predicted heart age. Analyses were completed in June 2024.

RESULTS

Median LE8 scores were 62.8 for men and 66.0 for women. Over 80% of participants had less than optimal CVH scores, affecting 141.5 million people and 1-in-6 participants had a low CVH score, impacting 30.0 million people. Mean predicted heart age and excess heart age (EHA, difference between actual and predicted heart age) were 56.6 (95% CI 56.1-57.1) and 8.6 (8.1-9.1) years for men and 54.0 (53.4-54.7) and 5.9 (5.2-6.5) years for women. Participants in the low CVH group (scores<50), had an EHA that was 20.7 years higher than those in the high CVH group (score 80-100). Compared to the high CVH group, participants in low CVH group had 15 times (for men) and 44 times (for women) higher risk of having EHA ≥10 years. The pattern of differences in predicted heart age, EHA, and prevalence of EHA ≥10 years by LE8 groups remained largely consistent across subpopulations.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings highlight the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle to improve cardiovascular health and reduce excess heart age.

A unified framework for estimating country-specific cumulative incidence for 18 diseases stratified by polygenic risk

Polygenic scores (PGSs) offer the ability to predict genetic risk for complex diseases across the life course; a key benefit over short-term prediction models. To produce risk estimates relevant to clinical and public health decision-making, it is important to account for varying effects due to age and sex. Here, we develop a novel framework to estimate country-, age-, and sex-specific estimates of cumulative incidence stratified by PGS for 18 high-burden diseases. We integrate PGS associations from seven studies in four countries (N = 1,197,129) with disease incidences from the Global Burden of Disease. PGS has a significant sex-specific effect for asthma, hip osteoarthritis, gout, coronary heart disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D), with all but T2D exhibiting a larger effect in men. PGS has a larger effect in younger individuals for 13 diseases, with effects decreasing linearly with age. We show for breast cancer that, relative to individuals in the bottom 20% of polygenic risk, the top 5% attain an absolute risk for screening eligibility 16.3 years earlier. Our framework increases the generalizability of results from biobank studies and the accuracy of absolute risk estimates by appropriately accounting for age- and sex-specific PGS effects. Our results highlight the potential of PGS as a screening tool which may assist in the early prevention of common diseases.

Impact of the 2021 European Society for Cardiology prevention guideline's stepwise approach for cardiovascular risk factor treatment in patients with established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

AIMS

This study aimed to evaluate the stepwise approach for cardiovascular (CV) risk factor treatment as outlined by the European Society for Cardiology 2021 guidelines on CV disease (CVD) prevention in patients with established atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

In patients with ASCVD, included in UCC-SMART (n = 8730) and European parts of the REACH registry (n = 18 364), the 10-year CV risk was estimated using SMART2. Treatment effects were derived from meta-analyses and trials. Step 1 recommendations were LDL cholesterol (LDLc) < 1.8 mmol/L, systolic blood pressure (SBP) < 140 mmHg, using any antithrombotic medication, sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibition, and smoking cessation. Step 2 recommendations were LDLc < 1.4 mmol/L, SBP < 130 mmHg, dual-pathway inhibition (DPI, aspirin plus low-dose rivaroxaban), colchicine, glucagon-like peptide (GLP)-1 receptor agonists, and eicosapentaenoic acid. Step 2 was modelled accounting for Step 1 non-attainment. With current treatment, residual CV risk was 22%, 32%, and 60% in the low, moderate, and pooled (very) high European risk regions, respectively. Step 2 could prevent up to 198, 223 and 245 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Intensified LDLc reduction, colchicine, and DPI could be applied to most patients, preventing up to 57, 74, and 59 events per 1000 patients treated, respectively. Following Step 2, the number of patients with a CV risk of <10% could increase from 20%, 6.4%, and 0.5%, following Step 1, to 63%, 48%, and 12%, in the respective risk regions.

CONCLUSION

With current treatment, residual CV risk in patients with ASCVD remains high across all European risk regions. The intensified Step 2 treatment options result in marked further reduction of residual CV risk in patients with established ASCVD.

KEY FINDINGS

Guideline-recommended intensive treatment of patients with cardiovascular disease could prevent additional 198-245 new cardiovascular events for every 1000 patients treated.

Association between Altitude and the Framingham Risk Score: A Cross-Sectional Study in the Peruvian Adult Population

To determine the association between altitude and the Framingham risk score in the Peruvian population, we performed a cross-sectional analytical study of data collected by the 2017–2018 Food and Nutrition Surveillance by Life Stages survey. The outcome of this study was the Framingham 10-year cardiovascular disease event risk prediction, which is composed of six modifiable and non-modifiable coronary risk factors. A generalized linear model (GLM) of the gamma family and log link function was used to report the crude and adjusted β coefficients. Several sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the association of interest. Data from a total of 833 surveyed participants were included. After adjusting for educational level, poverty level, alcohol consumption, physical activity level, the presence of any limitation, obesity, and area of residence, it was observed that altitude ≥ 2500 m above sea level (β = −0.42 [95% CI: −0.69 to −0.16]) was negatively and significantly associated with a decrease in the Framingham 10-year risk score. High altitude was significantly and negatively associated with Framingham 10-year risk scores. Our results will allow prevention strategies considering modifiable risk factors to avoid the development of cardiovascular diseases, especially in people living at low altitudes.

Age-Dependent Disparities in the Prevalence of Single and Clustering Cardiovascular Risk Factors: A Cross-Sectional Cohort Study in Middle-Aged and Older Adults

Background

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality worldwide; with age acknowledged as an independent cardiovascular risk factor (CRF) in adults. Appreciating the association between age and classic CRFs is believed to boost all potential benefits of prevention.

Purpose

Assessment of the prevalence of single and clustered CRFs and their association with age.

Patients and Methods

The survey involved 4735 people (33.6% men) who were PONS project attendees aged 45-64. The study protocol comprised the Health Status Questionnaire, general medical examination, anthropometric measurements, and blood and urine sampling. The prevalence of single and clustered CRFs (hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes mellitus, and obesity) in the incrementally split age groups was calculated. The incidence rate of CRFs, against their absence, was determined by Poisson regression models with robust standard errors.

Results

The prevalence of CRFs was established in 90% of the respondents. Except dyslipidemia and ≥1 CRFs, prevalence of risk factors increased with age, although this trend was the weakest in men. In the total group, and in women, prevalence of dyslipidemia and ≥1 CRFs was unrelated to age, whereas in men, it was on the rise in the younger age groups. The incidence rate of CRFs was strongly related to age, and, with the exception of dyslipidemia, was higher in the older age groups.

Conclusion

Cardiovascular risk factors are common in the adult population, while their prevalence and clustering are more prevalent in seniors. Apart from dyslipidemia, the risk of CRFs is appreciably age-related, and higher in seniors.

Predicting lifetime risk for developing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in Chinese population: the China-PAR project

Evidence on the lifetime risk for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is insufficient; yet, estimating an individual's lifetime risk allows for a comprehensive assessment of ASCVD burden. We developed and validated lifetime risk prediction equations for ASCVD using four large and ongoing prospective cohorts of Chinese, the China-PAR project (Prediction for ASCVD Risk in China). Sex-specific equations were developed using two cohorts (as the derivation cohort) of 21,320 participants. Two other independent cohorts with 14,123 and 70,838 participants were used for their external validation, respectively. We evaluated both calibration and discrimination measures for model performance. Furthermore, we estimated ASCVD-free years lost or excess absolute risk attributable to high 10-year risk (≥10.0%) and/or high lifetime risk (≥32.8%). After 12.3 years' follow-up of the derivation cohort, 1048 ASCVD events and 1304 non-ASCVD deaths were identified. Our sex-specific equations had good internal validation, with discriminant C statistics of 0.776 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.757-0.794) and 0.801 (95% CI: 0.778-0.825), and calibration χ² of 9.2 (P = 0.418) and 5.6 (P = 0.777) for men and women, respectively. Good external validation was also demonstrated with predicted rates closely matched to the observed ones. Compared with men having both low 10-year and low lifetime risk, men would develop ASCVD 3.0, 4.6 and 8.6 years earlier if they had high 10-year risk alone, high lifetime risk alone, or both high 10-year and high lifetime risk at the index age of 35 years, respectively. We developed well-performed lifetime risk prediction equations that will help to identify those with the greatest potential to avert ASCVD burden after implementation of innovative clinical and public health interventions in China.

Excessive Erythrocytosis and Cardiovascular Risk in Andean Highlanders

Corante, Noemí, Cecilia Anza-Ramírez, Rómulo Figueroa-Mujíca, José Luis Macarlupú, Gustavo Vizcardo-Galindo, Grzegorz Bilo, Gianfranco Parati, Jorge L. Gamboa, Fabiola León-Velarde, and Francisco C. Villafuerte. Excessive erythrocytosis and cardiovascular risk in Andean highlanders. High Alt Med Biol. 19:221–231, 2018.—Cardiovascular diseases are the main cause of death worldwide. Life under high-altitude (HA) hypoxic conditions is believed to provide highlanders with a natural protection against cardiovascular and metabolic diseases compared with sea-level inhabitants. However, some HA dwellers become intolerant to chronic hypoxia and develop a progressive incapacitating syndrome known as chronic mountain sickness (CMS), characterized by excessive erythrocytosis (EE; Hb ≥21 g/dL in men, Hb ≥19 g/dL in women). Evidence from HA studies suggests that, in addition to CMS typical signs and symptoms, these highlanders may also suffer from metabolic and cardiovascular disorders. Thus, we hypothesize that this syndrome is also associated to the loss of the cardiometabolic protection observed in healthy highlanders (HH), and therefore to a higher cardiovascular risk (CVR). The aim of the present work was to evaluate the association between EE and CVR calculated using the Framingham General CVR Score and between EE and CVR factors in male highlanders. This cross-sectional study included 342 males from Cerro de Pasco, Peru at 4340 m (HH = 209, CMS = 133). Associations were assessed by multiple logistic regressions adjusted for potential confounders (BMI, pulse oxygen saturation and age). The adjusted models show that the odds of high CVR (>20%) in highlanders with EE was 3.63 times the odds in HH (CI 95%:1.22–10.78; p = 0.020), and that EE is associated to hypertension, elevated fasting serum glucose, insulin resistance, and elevated fasting serum triglycerides. Our results suggest that individuals who suffer from EE are at increased risk of developing cardiovascular events compared with their healthy counterparts.

Food Habits, Lifestyle Factors, and Risk of Prostate Cancer in Central Argentina: A Case Control Study Involving Self-Motivated Health Behavior Modifications after Diagnosis

Cancer is the second most important non-communicable disease worldwide and disproportionately impacts low- to middle-income countries. Diet in combination with other lifestyle habits seems to modify the risk for some cancers but little is known about South Americans. Food habits of Argentinean men pre- and post-diagnosis of prostate cancer (n = 326) were assessed along with other lifestyle factors. We studied whether any of the behaviors and risk factors for prostate cancer were found in men with other cancers (n = 394), compared with control subjects (n = 629). Before diagnosis, both cases reported a greater mean consumption of meats and fats and lower intakes of fruits, green vegetables, cruciferous vegetables, legumes, nuts, seeds, and whole grains than the controls (all p < 0.001). After diagnosis, cases significantly reduced the intake of meats and fats, and reported other dietary modifications with increased consumption of fish, fruits (including red fruits in prostate cancer), cruciferous vegetables, legumes, nuts, and black tea (all p < 0.001). Additional lifestyle aspects significantly predominant in cases included a reduced quality of sleep, emotional stress, low physical activity, tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, living in rural areas, and being exposed to environmental contaminants. Argentinian men were predisposed to modify their unhealthy dietary habits and other lifestyle factors after cancer diagnosis.

A method to construct a points system to predict cardiovascular disease considering repeated measures of risk factors

Current predictive models for cardiovascular disease based on points systems use the baseline situation of the risk factors as independent variables. These models do not take into account the variability of the risk factors over time. Predictive models for other types of disease also exist that do consider the temporal variability of a single biological marker in addition to the baseline variables. However, due to their complexity these other models are not used in daily clinical practice. Bearing in mind the clinical relevance of these issues and that cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death worldwide we show the properties and viability of a new methodological alternative for constructing cardiovascular risk scores to make predictions of cardiovascular disease with repeated measures of the risk factors and retaining the simplicity of the points systems so often used in clinical practice (construction, statistical validation by simulation and explanation of potential utilization). We have also applied the system clinically upon a set of simulated data solely to help readers understand the procedure constructed.