Framingham and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations, High-Sensitivity Troponin T, and N-Terminal Pro-Brain-Type Natriuretic Peptide for Predicting Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Events Across the Spectrum of Kidney Dysfunction

Machine learning model for cardiovascular disease prediction in patients with chronic kidney disease

Introduction

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop CVD risk prediction models using machine learning to support clinical decision making and improve patient prognosis.

Methods

Electronic medical records from patients with CKD at a single center from 2015 to 2020 were used to develop machine learning models for the prediction of CVD. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was used to select important features predicting the risk of developing CVD. Seven machine learning classification algorithms were used to build models, which were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curves, accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and F1-score, and Shapley Additive explanations was used to interpret the model results. CVD was defined as composite cardiovascular events including coronary heart disease (coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, and coronary artery revascularization), cerebrovascular disease (hemorrhagic stroke and ischemic stroke), deaths from all causes (cardiovascular deaths, non-cardiovascular deaths, unknown cause of death), congestive heart failure, and peripheral artery disease (aortic aneurysm, aortic or other peripheral arterial revascularization). A cardiovascular event was a composite outcome of multiple cardiovascular events, as determined by reviewing medical records.

Results

This study included 8,894 patients with CKD, with a composite CVD event incidence of 25.9%; a total of 2,304 patients reached this outcome. LASSO regression identified eight important features for predicting the risk of CKD developing into CVD: age, history of hypertension, sex, antiplatelet drugs, high-density lipoprotein, sodium ions, 24-h urinary protein, and estimated glomerular filtration rate. The model developed using Extreme Gradient Boosting in the test set had an area under the curve of 0.89, outperforming the other models, indicating that it had the best CVD predictive performance.

Conclusion

This study established a CVD risk prediction model for patients with CKD, based on routine clinical diagnostic and treatment data, with good predictive accuracy. This model is expected to provide a scientific basis for the management and treatment of patients with CKD.

Risk prediction models for cardiovascular events in hemodialysis patients: A systematic review

OBJECTIVE

To perform a systematic review of risk prediction models for cardiovascular (CV) events in hemodialysis (HD) patients, and provide a reference for the application and optimization of related prediction models.

METHODS

PubMed, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, and Embase databases were searched from inception to 1 February 2023. Two authors independently conducted the literature search, selection, and screening. The Prediction model Risk Of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) was applied to evaluate the risk of bias and applicability of the included literature.

RESULTS

A total of nine studies containing 12 models were included, with performance measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) lying between 0.70 and 0.88. Age, diabetes mellitus (DM), C-reactive protein (CRP), and albumin (ALB) were the most commonly identified predictors of CV events in HD patients. While the included models demonstrated good applicability, there were still certain risks of bias, primarily related to inadequate handling of missing data and transformation of continuous variables, as well as a lack of model performance validation.

CONCLUSION

The included models showed good overall predictive performance and can assist healthcare professionals in the early identification of high-risk individuals for CV events in HD patients. In the future, the modeling methods should be improved, or the existing models should undergo external validation to provide better guidance for clinical practice.

Optimal Screening for Predicting and Preventing the Risk of Heart Failure Among Adults With Diabetes Without Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: A Pooled Cohort Analysis

BACKGROUND

The optimal approach to identify individuals with diabetes who are at a high risk for developing heart failure (HF) to inform implementation of preventive therapies is unknown, especially in those without atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD).

METHODS

Adults with diabetes and no HF at baseline from 7 community-based cohorts were included. Participants without ASCVD who were at high risk for developing HF were identified using 1-step screening strategies: risk score (WATCH-DM [Weight, Age, Hypertension, Creatinine, HDL-C, Diabetes Control, QRS Duration, MI, and CABG] ≥12), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide ≥125 pg/mL), hs-cTn (high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T ≥14 ng/L; hs-cTnI ≥31 ng/L), and echocardiography-based diabetic cardiomyopathy (echo-DbCM; left atrial enlargement, left ventricular hypertrophy, or diastolic dysfunction). High-risk participants were also identified using 2-step screening strategies with a second test to identify residual risk among those deemed low risk by the first test: WATCH-DM/NT-proBNP, NT-proBNP/hs-cTn, NT-proBNP/echo-DbCM. Across screening strategies, the proportion of HF events identified, 5-year number needed to treat and number needed to screen to prevent 1 HF event with an SGLT2i (sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor) among high-risk participants, and cost of screening were estimated.

RESULTS

The initial study cohort included 6293 participants (48.2% women), of whom 77.7% without prevalent ASCVD were evaluated with different HF screening strategies. At 5-year follow-up, 6.2% of participants without ASCVD developed incident HF. The 5-year number needed to treat to prevent 1 HF event with an SGLT2i among participants without ASCVD was 43 (95% CI, 29-72). In the cohort without ASCVD, high-risk participants identified using 1-step screening strategies had a low 5-year number needed to treat (22 for NT-proBNP to 37 for echo-DbCM). However, a substantial proportion of HF events occurred among participants identified as low risk using 1-step screening approaches (29% for echo-DbCM to 47% for hs-cTn). Two-step screening strategies captured most HF events (75-89%) in the high-risk subgroup with a comparable 5-year number needed to treat as the 1-step screening approaches (30-32). The 5-year number needed to screen to prevent 1 HF event was similar across 2-step screening strategies (45-61). However, the number of tests and associated costs were lowest for WATCH-DM/NT-proBNP ($1061) compared with other 2-step screening strategies (NT-proBNP/hs-cTn: $2894; NT-proBNP/echo-DbCM: $16 358).

CONCLUSIONS

Selective NT-proBNP testing based on the WATCH-DM score efficiently identified a high-risk primary prevention population with diabetes expected to derive marked absolute benefits from SGLT2i to prevent HF.

Biomarkers for the Diagnosis of Heart Failure in People with Diabetes: A Consensus Report from Diabetes Technology Society

Diabetes Technology Society assembled a panel of clinician experts in diabetology, cardiology, clinical chemistry, nephrology, and primary care to review the current evidence on biomarker screening of people with diabetes (PWD) for heart failure (HF), who are, by definition, at risk for HF (Stage A HF). This consensus report reviews features of HF in PWD from the perspectives of 1) epidemiology, 2) classification of stages, 3) pathophysiology, 4) biomarkers for diagnosing, 5) biomarker assays, 6) diagnostic accuracy of biomarkers, 7) benefits of biomarker screening, 8) consensus recommendations for biomarker screening, 9) stratification of Stage B HF, 10) echocardiographic screening, 11) management of Stage A and Stage B HF, and 12) future directions. The Diabetes Technology Society panel recommends 1) biomarker screening with one of two circulating natriuretic peptides (B-type natriuretic peptide or N-terminal prohormone of B-type natriuretic peptide), 2) beginning screening five years following diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and at the diagnosis of type 2 diabetes (T2D), 3) beginning routine screening no earlier than at age 30 years for T1D (irrespective of age of diagnosis) and at any age for T2D, 4) screening annually, and 5) testing any time of day. The panel also recommends that an abnormal biomarker test defines asymptomatic preclinical HF (Stage B HF). This diagnosis requires follow-up using transthoracic echocardiography for classification into one of four subcategories of Stage B HF, corresponding to risk of progression to symptomatic clinical HF (Stage C HF). These recommendations will allow identification and management of Stage A and Stage B HF in PWD to prevent progression to Stage C HF or advanced HF (Stage D HF).