Evaluating Air-Quality Models: Review and Outlook

Spatial Variability and Behavior of Background Radon Concentrations in Ambient Air in the San Mateo Basin of the Grants Mineral Belt

ABSTRACT

A modeling study and analysis of measurement data was conducted in the San Mateo basin near the former Homestake Mining Company of California's mill site located north of Milan, NM, to understand the spatial variability of background radon and identify a suitable background station. Recent guidance from the US Nuclear Regulatory commission clarifies the requirement that dose assessments of existing facilities be based on environmental measurements at the facility's unrestricted boundary instead of predictive modeling. Background is important because it is subtracted from radon measured at the boundary for dose calculations. The current background station lies on the slopes above the wash floor. The mill site contains two tailing piles with a total area of 1.03 km2 that in 2019 emitted 1,750 mBq m-2 s-1 from the larger of the piles and 320 mBq m-2 s-1 from the smaller pile. Atmospheric transport modeling was conducted to facilitate understanding of the movement of radon in the San Mateo wash bottom and surrounding hillsides. The model was validated using emission and measurement data from the nearby Ambrosia Lake mining region. The modeling, in combination with current measurements and previous studies, indicated the wash floor has characteristically higher radon concentrations than the slopes above the wash. This phenomenon was attributed to (1) higher radon soil flux in the alluvial sediments that make up the wash floor, (2) nocturnal drainage flow that results in a pooling of radon on the wash floor, and (3) inversion conditions that trap radon in a shallow air mass on the wash floor during late evening and early morning hours. Using a regression of predicted and observed radon concentrations, a background concentration of 25.7 Bq m-3 was derived that was close to that measured at background stations about 4 km north of the tailings pile and on the San Mateo wash floor.

Modelling Exposure from Airborne Hazardous Short-Duration Releases in Urban Environments

When considering accidental or/and deliberate releases of airborne hazardous substances the release duration is often short and in most cases not precisely known. The downstream exposure in those cases is stochastic due to ambient turbulence and strongly dependent on the release duration. Depending on the adopted modelling approach, a relatively large number of dispersion simulations may be required to assess exposure and its statistical behaviour. The present study introduces a novel approach aiming to replace the large number of the abovementioned simulation scenarios by only one simulation of a corresponding continuous release scenario and to derive the exposure-related quantities for each finite-duration release scenario by simple relationships. The present analysis was concentrated on dosages and peak concentrations as the primary parameters of concern for human health. The experimental and theoretical analysis supports the hypothesis that the dosage statistics for short releases can be correlated with the corresponding continuous release concentration statistics. The analysis shows also that the peak concentration statistics for short-duration releases in terms of ensemble average and standard deviation are well correlated with the corresponding dosage statistics. However, for more reliable quantification of the associated correlation coefficients further experimental and theoretical research is needed. The probability/cumulative density function for dosage and peak concentration can be approximated by the beta function proposed in an earlier work by the authors for continuous releases.

Meteorological modeling relevant to mesoscale and regional air quality applications: a review

The highest correlative relations for air pollution levels are often with meteorological variables such as temperature and wind speed. Today, sophisticated gridded high-resolution meteorological models are used to produce meteorological fields that drive chemical transport models for air quality management. Errors in specification of the physical atmosphere such as temperature, clouds and winds can affect the air quality predictions. Additionally, the efficiency and efficacy of emission control strategies can be compromised by errors in the meteorological fields. In this paper, the role of meteorology in air quality behavior, primarily from the viewpoint of regional ozone modeling as carried out in the U.S., is reviewed. Particular attention is given to physics and new techniques for improving meteorological model performance. Uncertainties in model turbulent mixing in the nighttime boundary layer, where large model differences exist, are examined. The role of spatial mesoscale features such as topography and land/water systems in models are discussed. The nocturnal low-level jet, a mesoscale temporal and spatial feature, and its impact on air quality are examined. Traditional air quality concerns have focused on synoptic conditions at the center of high-pressure systems. However, high ozone levels have also been associated with stationary fronts. The ability of models to capture mesoscale structure and yet retain synoptic structure and its timing is challenging. Data assimilation and its ability to improve model performance are examined. Particular attention is given to vertical nudging strategies that can affect formation of the nocturnal low-level jets. Finally, clouds can have a major impact on air quality since insolation impacts temperature, biogenic emissions and photolysis rates and extremes in stability. Traditional techniques, which attempt to insert cloud water where there is not dynamical support, can lead to additional errors. New dynamical approaches for improving model cloud performance are discussed.Implications: This article shows that there has been a considerable improvement in meteorological models used for air quality simulations. In particular, improvement in the tools for incorporating both traditional observations and new satellite data for retrospective studies has been beneficial to air quality community. However, while this trend is continuing, many challenges remain. As an example, due to having many options available in configuring a model simulation, there is a need to evaluate and recommend sets of options that provide important performance measures.

Monte Carlo optimization for site selection of new chemical plants

Geographic distribution of chemical manufacturing sites has significant impact on the business sustainability of industrial development and regional environmental sustainability as well. The common site selection rules have included the evaluation of the air quality impact of a newly constructed chemical manufacturing site to surrounding communities. In order to achieve this target, the simultaneous consideration should cover the regional background air-quality information, the emissions of new manufacturing site, and statistical pattern of local meteorological conditions. According to the above information, the risk assessment can be conducted for the potential air-quality impacts from candidate locations of a new chemical manufacturing site, and thus the optimization of the final site selection can be achieved by minimizing its air-quality impacts. This paper has provided a systematic methodology for the above purpose. There are total two stages of modeling and optimization work: i) Monte Carlo simulation for the purpose to identify background pollutant concentration based on currently existing emission sources and regional statistical meteorological conditions; and ii) multi-objective (simultaneous minimization of both peak pollutant concentration and standard deviation of pollutant concentration spatial distribution at air-quality concern regions) Monte Carlo optimization for optimal location selection of new chemical manufacturing sites according to their design data of potential emission. This study can be helpful to both determination of the potential air-quality impact for geographic distribution of multiple chemical plants with respect to regional statistical meteorological conditions, and the identification of an optimal site for each new chemical manufacturing site with the minimal environment impact to surrounding communities. The efficacy of the developed methodology has been demonstrated through the case studies.

Combined analysis of modeled and monitored SO2 concentrations at a complex smelting facility

Vale Canada Limited owns and operates a large nickel smelting facility located in Sudbury, Ontario. This is a complex facility with many sources of SO2 emissions, including a mix of source types ranging from passive building roof vents to North America's tallest stack. In addition, as this facility performs batch operations, there is significant variability in the emission rates depending on the operations that are occurring. Although SO2 emission rates for many of the sources have been measured by source testing, the reliability of these emission rates has not been tested from a dispersion modeling perspective. This facility is a significant source of SO2 in the local region, making it critical that when modeling the emissions from this facility for regulatory or other purposes, that the resulting concentrations are representative of what would actually be measured or otherwise observed. To assess the accuracy of the modeling, a detailed analysis of modeled and monitored data for SO2 at the facility was performed. A mobile SO2 monitor sampled at five locations downwind of different source groups for different wind directions resulting in a total of 168 hr of valid data that could be used for the modeled to monitored results comparison. The facility was modeled in AERMOD (American Meteorological Society/U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Regulatory Model) using site-specific meteorological data such that the modeled periods coincided with the same times as the monitored events. In addition, great effort was invested into estimating the actual SO2 emission rates that would likely be occurring during each of the monitoring events. SO2 concentrations were modeled for receptors around each monitoring location so that the modeled data could be directly compared with the monitored data. The modeled and monitored concentrations were compared and showed that there were no systematic biases in the modeled concentrations.

IMPLICATIONS

This paper is a case study of a Combined Analysis of Modelled and Monitored Data (CAMM), which is an approach promulgated within air quality regulations in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Although combining dispersion models and monitoring data to estimate or refine estimates of source emission rates is not a new technique, this study shows how, with a high degree of rigor in the design of the monitoring and filtering of the data, it can be applied to a large industrial facility, with a variety of emission sources. The comparison of modeled and monitored SO2 concentrations in this case study also provides an illustration of the AERMOD model performance for a large industrial complex with many sources, at short time scales in comparison with monitored data. Overall, this analysis demonstrated that the AERMOD model performed well.

An annual assessment of air quality with the CALIOPE modeling system over Spain

The CALIOPE project, funded by the Spanish Ministry of the Environment, aims at establishing an air quality forecasting system for Spain. With this goal, CALIOPE modeling system was developed and applied with high resolution (4km×4km, 1h) using the HERMES emission model (including emissions of resuspended particles from paved roads) specifically built up for Spain. The present study provides an evaluation and the assessment of the modeling system, coupling WRF-ARW/HERMES/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b for a full-year simulation in 2004 over Spain. The evaluation focuses on the capability of the model to reproduce the temporal and spatial distribution of gas phase species (NO(2), O(3), and SO(2)) and particulate matter (PM10) against ground-based measurements from the Spanish air quality monitoring network. The evaluation of the modeling results on an hourly basis shows a strong dependency of the performance of the model on the type of environment (urban, suburban and rural) and the dominant emission sources (traffic, industrial, and background). The O(3) chemistry is best represented in summer, when mean hourly variability and high peaks are generally well reproduced. The mean normalized error and bias meet the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) and the European regulations. Modeled O(3) shows higher performance for urban than for rural stations, especially at traffic stations in large cities, since stations influenced by traffic emissions (i.e., high-NO(x) environments) are better characterized with a more pronounced daily variability. NO(x)/O(3) chemistry is better represented under non-limited-NO(2) regimes. SO(2) is mainly produced from isolated point sources (power generation and transformation industries) which generate large plumes of high SO(2) concentration affecting the air quality on a local to national scale where the meteorological pattern is crucial. The contribution of mineral dust from the Sahara desert through the BSC-DREAM8b model helps to satisfactorily reproduce episodic high PM10 concentration peaks at background stations. The model assessment indicates that one of the main air quality-related problems in Spain is the high level of O(3). A quarter of the Iberian Peninsula shows more than 30days exceeding the value 120μgm(-3) for the maximum 8-h O(3) concentration as a consequence of the transport of O(3) precursors downwind to/from the Madrid and Barcelona metropolitan areas, and industrial areas and cities in the Mediterranean coast.

A FRAMEWORK FOR EVALUATING REGIONAL-SCALE NUMERICAL PHOTOCHEMICAL MODELING SYSTEMS

This paper discusses the need for critically evaluating regional-scale (~200-2000 km) three-dimensional numerical photochemical air quality modeling systems to establish a model's credibility in simulating the spatio-temporal features embedded in the observations. Because of limitations of currently used approaches for evaluating regional air quality models, a framework for model evaluation is introduced here for determining the suitability of a modeling system for a given application, distinguishing the performance between different models through confidence-testing of model results, guiding model development, and analyzing the impacts of regulatory policy options. The framework identifies operational, diagnostic, dynamic, and probabilistic types of model evaluation. Operational evaluation techniques include statistical and graphical analyses aimed at determining whether model estimates are in agreement with the observations in an overall sense. Diagnostic evaluation focuses on process-oriented analyses to determine whether the individual processes and components of the model system are working correctly, both independently and in combination. Dynamic evaluation assesses the ability of the air quality model to simulate changes in air quality stemming from changes in source emissions and/or meteorology, the principal forces that drive the air quality model. Probabilistic evaluation attempts to assess the confidence that can be placed in model predictions using techniques such as ensemble modeling and Bayesian model averaging. The advantages of these types of model evaluation approaches are discussed in this paper.

Forecasting daily maximum surface ozone concentrations in Brunei Darussalam--an ARIMA modeling approach

A time series approach using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling has been used in this study to obtain maximum daily surface ozone (O3) concentration forecasts. The order of the fitted ARIMA model is found to be (1,0,1) for the surface O3 data collected at the airport in Brunei Darussalam during the period July 1998-March 1999. The model forecasts of one-day-ahead maximum O3 concentrations have been found to be reasonably close to the observed concentrations. The model performance has been evaluated on the basis of certain commonly used statistical measures. The overall model performance is found to be quite satisfactory as indicated by the values of Fractional Bias, Normalized Mean Square Error, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error as 0.025, 0.02, and 13.14% respectively.

Fluid particle accelerations in fully developed turbulence

The motion of fluid particles as they are pushed along erratic trajectories by fluctuating pressure gradients is fundamental to transport and mixing in turbulence. It is essential in cloud formation and atmospheric transport, processes in stirred chemical reactors and combustion systems, and in the industrial production of nanoparticles. The concept of particle trajectories has been used successfully to describe mixing and transport in turbulence, but issues of fundamental importance remain unresolved. One such issue is the Heisenberg-Yaglom prediction of fluid particle accelerations, based on the 1941 scaling theory of Kolmogorov. Here we report acceleration measurements using a detector adapted from high-energy physics to track particles in a laboratory water flow at Reynolds numbers up to 63,000. We find that, within experimental errors, Kolmogorov scaling of the acceleration variance is attained at high Reynolds numbers. Our data indicate that the acceleration is an extremely intermittent variable--particles are observed with accelerations of up to 1,500 times the acceleration of gravity (equivalent to 40 times the root mean square acceleration). We find that the acceleration data reflect the anisotropy of the large-scale flow at all Reynolds numbers studied.