Geostatistical Mapping of Precipitation from Rain Gauge Data Using Atmospheric and Terrain Characteristics

Mapping the spatial variability of rainfall from a physiographic-based multilinear regression: model development and application to the Southwestern Iberian Peninsula

A physiographic-based multilinear regression model supported by GIS was developed to estimate spatial rainfall variability in the Southwest Iberian Peninsula. The area study includes a wide diversity of landscape features and comprises four Portuguese regions and one Spanish province (totalizing 28,860 km²). The region suffers a very strong Mediterranean influence, with a major cleavage between winter and summer seasons. Thus, the analysis was carried out separately for the wet (October to March) and dry (April to September) semesters. From an initial set of 10 explanatory physiographic variables, five were selected to be used in the multilinear regression, as they allowed generating models by map algebra that fitted well with the last 40 years of monthly rainfall data records. These records were obtained from 163 weather stations, filtered from an initial set of 230 (142 stations in Portugal and 88 in Spain). The correlation between the physiographic-based multilinear regression model and a model obtained by interpolation from rainfall historical data showed to be good or very good in approximately 75% of the area under study. Results show that physiographic-based models can be effectively used to estimate rainfall where there is a lack of rain gauges, or to densify spatial resolution of rainfall between rain gauges.

Delineating the relative contribution of climate related variables to chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton biomass in lakes using the ERA5-Land climate reanalysis data

Understanding the climatic drivers of eutrophication is critical for lake management under the prism of the global change. Yet the complex interplay between climatic variables and lake processes makes prediction of phytoplankton biomass a rather difficult task. Quantifying the relative influence of climate-related variables on the regulation of phytoplankton biomass requires modelling approaches that use extensive field measurements paired with accurate meteorological observations. In this study we used climate and lake related variables obtained from the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset combined with a large dataset of in-situ measurements of chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton biomass from 50 water bodies to develop models of phytoplankton related responses as functions of the climate reanalysis data. We used chlorophyll-a and phytoplankton biomass as response metrics of phytoplankton growth and we employed two different modelling techniques, boosted regression trees (BRT) and generalized additive models for location scale and shape (GAMLSS). According to our results, the fitted models had a relatively high explanatory power and predictive performance. Boosted regression trees had a high pseudo R² with the type of the lake, the total layer temperature, and the mix-layer depth being the three predictors with the higher relative influence. The best GAMLSS model retained mix-layer depth, mix-layer temperature, total layer temperature, total runoff and 10-m wind speed as significant predictors (p<0.001). Regarding the phytoplankton biomass both modelling approaches had less explanatory power than those for chlorophyll-a. Concerning the predictive performance of the models both the BRT and GAMLSS models for chlorophyll-a outperformed those for phytoplankton biomass. Overall, we consider these findings promising for future limnological studies as they bring forth new perspectives in modelling ecosystem responses to a wide range of climate and lake variables. As a concluding remark, climate reanalysis can be an extremely useful asset for lake research and management.

Geostatistical analysis of precipitation in the island of Crete (Greece) based on a sparse monitoring network

Based on the predictions of General Circulation Models, significant reduction of precipitation in Mediterranean areas is a possible scenario. Hence, better understanding of the spatial and temporal precipitation patterns is necessary in order to quantify desertification risks and design suitable mitigation measures. This study uses monthly precipitation measurements from a sparse network of 54 monitoring stations on the Mediterranean island of Crete (Greece). The study period extends from 1948 to 2012. The data reveal strong correlations between the western and eastern parts of the island. However, the average annual precipitation in the West is about 450 mm higher than that in the East. We construct a spatial model of average annual precipitation in Crete. The model involves a topographic trend and residuals with anisotropic spatial correlations which are fitted with a recently developed variogram function. We use regression kriging to generate annual precipitation maps and to identify locations of high estimation uncertainty. To our knowledge, this is the most detailed spatial analysis of precipitation in Crete to date. We present the analysis in detail for the year 1971. The trend accounts for ≈ 74% of the total variance. The highest precipitation estimate is 2331 mm in the West and 1781 mm in the East. The highest relative estimation uncertainty (≈ 20%) is observed along the southeastern coastline of the island, where the lowest values of annual precipitation are observed. This region includes one of the major agricultural areas of the island. The same overall patterns are found for other years in the study. Finally, we find no statistical evidence for a decrease in the global (over the entire island) annual precipitation during the study period.

On the Use of NLDAS2 Weather Data for Hydrologic Modeling in the Upper Mississippi River Basin

Weather data are the key forces that drive hydrological processes so that their accuracy in watershed modeling is fundamentally important. For large-scale watershed modeling, weather data are either generated by using interpolation methods or derived from assimilated datasets. In the present study, we compared model performances of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), as driven by interpolation weather data, and NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System Phase Two (NLDAS2) weather dataset in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The SWAT model fed with different weather datasets were used to simulate monthly stream flow at 11 United States Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring stations in the UMRB. Model performances were evaluated based on three metrics: coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NS), and percent bias (Pbias). The results show that, after calibration, the SWAT model compared well at all monitoring stations for monthly stream flow using different weather datasets indicating that the SWAT model can adequately produce long-term water yield in UMRB. The results also show that using NLDAS2 weather dataset can improve SWAT prediction of monthly stream flow with less prediction uncertainty in the UMRB. We concluded that NLDAS2 dataset could be used by the SWAT model for large-scale watersheds like UMRB as a surrogate of the interpolation weather data. Further analyses results show that NLDAS2 daily solar radiation data was about 2.5 MJ m−2 higher than the interpolation data. As such, the SWAT model driven by NLDAS2 dataset tended to underestimate stream flow in the UMRB due to the overestimation in evapotranspiration in uncalibrated conditions. Thus, the implication of overestimated solar radiation by NLDAS2 dataset should be considered before using NLDAS2 dataset to drive the hydrological model.

Rainfall Spatial Estimations: A Review from Spatial Interpolation to Multi-Source Data Merging

Rainfall is one of the most basic meteorological and hydrological elements. Quantitative rainfall estimation has always been a common concern in many fields of research and practice, such as meteorology, hydrology, and environment, as well as being one of the most important research hotspots in various fields nowadays. Due to the development of space observation technology and statistics, progress has been made in rainfall quantitative spatial estimation, which has continuously deepened our understanding of the water cycle across different space-time scales. In light of the information sources used in rainfall spatial estimation, this paper summarized the research progress in traditional spatial interpolation, remote sensing retrieval, atmospheric reanalysis rainfall, and multi-source rainfall merging since 2000. However, because of the extremely complex spatiotemporal variability and physical mechanism of rainfall, it is still quite challenging to obtain rainfall spatial distribution with high quality and resolution. Therefore, we present existing problems that require further exploration, including the improvement of interpolation and merging methods, the comprehensive evaluation of remote sensing, and the reanalysis of rainfall data and in-depth application of non-gauge based rainfall data.

A Methodological Framework to Retrospectively Obtain Downscaled Precipitation Estimates over the Tibetan Plateau

Long-term precipitation estimates with both finer spatial resolution and better quality are vital and highly needed in various related fields. Numerous downscaling algorithms have been investigated based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), to obtain precipitation data with finer resolution (~1 km). However, this research was restricted by the time span of the TMPA dataset, as the starting time of TMPA was 1998. In this study, a new methodological framework incorporating wavelet coherence and Cubist was proposed to retrospectively obtain downscaled precipitation estimates (DS) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), based on TMPA and ground observations, in 1990s. The correlations and similarities of precipitation patterns between the target years, from 1990 to 1999, and reference years, from 2000 to 2013, were firstly determined using wavelet coherence based on ground observations. Following this, the TMPA data in the reference years were regarded as the reference in the corresponding target years, which were adopted to be downscaled using Cubist models and land surface variables, to obtain the DS in the target years. We found that the DS showed continuous trends, which corresponded well with the ground observations. Additionally, the performances of the DS were better than those of the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data over the TP. Therefore, this methodological framework has great potential for obtaining precipitation estimates for the period of the 1990s for which TMPA data is inaccessible.

Correction and Informed Regionalization of Precipitation Data in a High Mountainous Region (Upper Indus Basin) and Its Effect on SWAT-Modelled Discharge

The current study applied a new approach for the interpolation and regionalization of observed precipitation series to a smaller spatial scale (0.125° by 0.125° grid) across the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), with appropriate adjustments for the orographic effect and changes in glacier storage. The approach is evaluated and validated through reverse hydrology, and is guided by observed flows and the available knowledge base. More specifically, the generated corrected precipitation data is validated by means of SWAT-modelled responses of the observed flows to the different input precipitation series (original and corrected ones). The results show that the SWAT-simulated flows using the corrected, regionalized precipitation series as input are much more in line with the observed flows than those using the uncorrected observed precipitation input for which significant underestimations are obtained.

Extreme precipitation and emergency room visits for influenza in Massachusetts: a case-crossover analysis

BACKGROUND

Influenza peaks during the wintertime in temperate regions and during the annual rainy season in tropical regions - however reasons for the observed differences in disease ecology are poorly understood. We hypothesize that episodes of extreme precipitation also result in increased influenza in the Northeastern United States, but this association is not readily apparent, as no defined 'rainy season' occurs. Our objective was to evaluate the association between extreme precipitation (≥ 99th percentile) events and risk of emergency room (ER) visit for influenza in Massachusetts during 2002-2008.

METHODS

A case-crossover analysis of extreme precipitation events and influenza ER visits was conducted using hospital administrative data including patient town of residence, date of visit, age, sex, and associated diagnostic codes. Daily precipitation estimates were generated for each town based upon data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations between extreme precipitation and ER visits for influenza were estimated using conditional logistic regression.

RESULTS

Extreme precipitation events were associated with an OR = 1.23 (95%CI: 1.16, 1.30) for ER visits for influenza at lag days 0-6. There was significant effect modification by race, with the strongest association observed among Blacks (OR = 1.48 (1.30, 1.68)).

CONCLUSIONS

We observed a positive association between extreme precipitation events and ER visits for influenza, particularly among Blacks. Our results suggest that influenza is associated with extreme precipitation in a temperate area; this association could be a result of disease ecology, behavioral changes such as indoor crowding, or both. Extreme precipitation events are expected to increase in the Northeastern United States as climate change progresses. Additional research exploring the basis of this association can inform potential interventions for extreme weather events and influenza transmission.

A Simplified Diagnostic Model of Orographic Rainfall for Enhancing Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates in Data-Poor Regions

An extension of Sinclair's diagnostic model of orographic precipitation (“VDEL”) is developed for use in data-poor regions to enhance rainfall estimates. This extension (VDELB) combines a 2D linearized internal gravity wave calculation with the dot product of the terrain gradient and surface wind to approximate terrain-induced vertical velocity profiles. Slope, wind speed, and stability determine the velocity profile, with either sinusoidal or vertically decaying (evanescent) solutions possible. These velocity profiles replace the parameterized functions in the original VDEL, creating VDELB, a diagnostic accounting for buoyancy effects. A further extension (VDELB*) uses an on/off constraint derived from reanalysis precipitation fields. A validation study over 365 days in the Pacific Northwest suggests that VDELB* can best capture seasonal and geographic variations. A new statistical data-fusion technique is presented and is used to combine VDELB*, reanalysis, and satellite rainfall estimates in southern Africa. The technique, matched filter regression (MFR), sets the variance of the predictors equal to their squared correlation with observed gauge data and predicts rainfall based on the first principal component of the combined data. In the test presented here, mean absolute errors from the MFR technique were 35% lower than the satellite estimates alone. VDELB assumes a linear solution to the wave equations and a Boussinesq atmosphere, and it may give unrealistic responses under extreme conditions. Nonetheless, the results presented here suggest that diagnostic models, driven by reanalysis data, can be used to improve satellite rainfall estimates in data-sparse regions.