Accurate prediction of HbA1c by continuous glucose monitoring using a kinetic model with patient-specific parameters for red blood cell lifespan and glucose uptake

Variation in the relationship between fasting glucose and HbA1c: implications for the diagnosis of diabetes in different age and ethnic groups

INTRODUCTION

Identify non-glycemic factors affecting the relationship between fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), in order to refine diabetes diagnostic criteria.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Relationship between FPG-HbA1c was assessed in 12 531 individuals from 2001 to 2018 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Using a recently described method, FPG and HbA1c were used to calculate apparent glycation ratio (AGR) of red blood cells for different subgroups based on age, race, and gender.

RESULTS

At an FPG of 7 mmol/L, black individuals had a higher HbA1c (p<0.001, mean: 50.2 mmol/mol, 95% CI (49.8 to 50.4)) compared with white individuals (47.4 mmol/mol (47.2 to 47.5)). This corresponds to NGSP (National Glycohemoglobin Standardization Program) units of 6.7% and 6.5% for black versus white individuals, respectively. Similarly, individuals under 21 years had lower HbA1c (p<0.001, 47.9 mmol/mol (47.7 to 48.1), 6.5%) compared with those over 50 years (48.3 mmol/mol (48.2 to 48.5), 6.6%). Differences were also observed between women (p<0.001, 49.2 mmol/mol (49.1 to 49.3), 6.7%) and men (47.0 mmol/mol (46.8 to 47.1), 6.5%). Of note, the difference in HbA1c at FPG of 7 mmol/L in black females over 50 and white males under 21 years was 5 mmol/mol (0.46%). AGR differences according to race (p<0.001), age (p<0.001), and gender (p<0.001) explained altered glucose-HbA1c relationship in the analyzed groups.

CONCLUSIONS

FPG-HbA1c relationship is affected by non-glycemic factors leading to incorrect diagnosis of diabetes in some individuals and ethnic groups. Assessment of AGR helps understand individual-specific relationship between glucose levels and HbA1c, which has the potential to more accurately diagnose and manage diabetes.

Performance of the Glucose Management Indicator (GMI) in Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

The glucose management indicator (GMI) is an estimated measure of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) recommended for the management of persons with diabetes using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). However, GMI was derived primarily in young adults with type 1 diabetes, and its performance in patients with type 2 diabetes is poorly characterized.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in 144 adults with obstructive sleep apnea and type 2 diabetes not using insulin (mean age: 59.4 years; 45.1% female). HbA1c was measured at the study screening visit. Participants simultaneously wore 2 CGM sensors (Dexcom G4 and Abbott Libre Pro) for up to 4 weeks (2 weeks at baseline and 2 weeks at the 3-month follow-up visit). GMI was calculated using all available CGM data for each sensor.

RESULTS

Median wear time was 27 days (IQR: 23-29) for the Dexcom G4 and 28 days (IQR: 24-29) for the Libre Pro. The mean difference between HbA1c and GMI was small (0.12-0.14 percentage points) (approximately 2 mmol/mol). However, the 2 measures were only moderately correlated (r = 0.68-0.71), and there was substantial variability in GMI at any given value of HbA1c (root mean squared error: 0.66-0.69 percentage points [7 to 8 mmol/mol]). Between 36% and 43% of participants had an absolute difference between HbA1c and GMI ≥0.5 percentage points (≥5 mmol/mol), and 9% to 18% had an absolute difference >1 percentage points (>11 mmol/mol). Discordance was higher in the Libre Pro than the Dexcom G4.

CONCLUSIONS

GMI may be an unreliable measure of glycemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes and should be interpreted cautiously in clinical practice.Clinicaltrials.gov Registration Number: NCT02454153.

Evaluation of continuous glucose monitoring-derived person-specific HbA1c in the presence and absence of complications in type 1 diabetes

AIM

To evaluate the accuracy of a novel kinetic model at predicting HbA1c in a real-world setting and to understand and explore the role of diabetes complications in altering the glucose-HbA1c relationship and the mechanisms involved.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Deidentified HbA1c and continuous glucose monitoring values were collected from 93 individuals with type 1 diabetes. Person-specific kinetic variables were used, including red blood cell (RBC) glucose uptake and lifespan, to characterize the relationship between glucose levels and HbA1c. The resulting calculated HbA1c (cHbA1c) was compared with glucose management indicator (GMI) for prospective agreement with laboratory HbA1c.

RESULTS

The cohort (42 men and 51 women) had a median age (IQR) of 61 (43, 72) years and a diabetes duration of 21 (10, 33) years. A total of 24 459 days of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data were available and 357 laboratory HbA1c were used to assess the average glucose-HbA1c relationship. cHbA1c had a superior correlation with laboratory HbA1c compared with GMI with a mean absolute deviation of 1.7 and 6.7 mmol/mol, r²  = 0.85 and 0.44, respectively. The fraction within 10% of absolute relative deviation from laboratory HbA1c was 93% for cHbA1c and 63% for GMI. Macrovascular disease had no effect on the model's accuracy, whereas microvascular complications resulted in a trend towards higher HbA1c, secondary to increased RBC glucose uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

cHbA1c, which takes into account RBC glucose uptake and lifespan, accurately reflects laboratory HbA1c in a real-world setting and can aid in the management of individuals with diabetes.

Interindividual variability in average glucose-glycated haemoglobin relationship in type 1 diabetes and implications for clinical practice

AIM

Glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) can fail to reflect average glucose levels, potentially compromising management decisions. We analysed variability in the relationship between mean glucose and HbA1c in individuals with diabetes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Three months of continuous glucose monitoring and HbA1c data were obtained from 216 individuals with type 1 diabetes. Universal red blood cell glucose transporter-1 Michaelis constant K_M and individualized apparent glycation ratio (AGR) were calculated and compared across age, racial and gender groups.

RESULTS

The mean age (range) was 30 years (8-72) with 94 younger than 19 years, 78 between 19 and 50 years, and 44 were >50 years. The group contained 120 women and 96 men with 106 white and 110 black individuals. The determined K_M value was 464 mg/dl and AGR was (mean ± SD) 72.1 ± 7 ml/g. AGR, which correlated with red blood cell lifespan marker, was highest in those aged >50 years at 75.4 ± 6.9 ml/g, decreasing to 73.2 ± 7.8 ml/g in 19-50 years, with a further drop to 71.0 ± 5.8 ml/g in the youngest group (p <0 .05). AGR differed between white and black groups (69.9 ± 5.8 and 74.2 ± 7.1 ml/g, respectively; p < .001). In contrast, AGR values were similar in men and women (71.5 ± 7.5 and 72.5 ± 6.6 ml/g, respectively; p = .27). Interestingly, interindividual AGR variation within each group was at least four-fold higher than average for between-group variation.

CONCLUSIONS

In this type 1 diabetes cohort, ethnicity and age, but not gender, alter the HbA1c-glucose relationship with even larger interindividual variations found within each group than between groups. Clinical application of personalized HbA1c-glucose relationships has the potential to optimize glycaemic care in the population with diabetes.

The relative contribution of diurnal and nocturnal glucose exposures to HbA1c in type 1 diabetes males: a pooled analysis

Purpose

The exact contribution of daily glucose exposure to HbA1c in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) remains controversial. We examined the contribution of pre- and postprandial glycaemia, nocturnal and early-morning glycaemia, and glycaemic variability to HbA1c levels in T1D. In this analysis, we used clinical data, namely age, BMI and HbA1c, as well as glycaemic metrics (24-h glycaemia, postprandial, nocturnal, early-morning glycaemia, wake-up glucose, and glycaemic variability) obtained over a four-week period of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) wear in thirty-two males with T1D.

Methods

The trapezoid method was used estimate the incremental area under the glucose curve (iAUC) for 24-h, postprandial (3-h period following breakfast, lunch, and dinner, respectively), nocturnal (between 24:00–04:00 AM), and early-morning (2-h period 2-h prior to wake-up) glycaemia. Linear regression analysis was employed whereby CGM-derived glycaemic metrics were explanatory variables and HbA1c was the outcome.

Results

Thirty-two T1D males (mean ± SD: age 29 ± 4 years; HbA1c 7.3 ± 0.9% [56 ± 13 mmol/mol]; BMI 25.80 ± 5.01 kg/m²) were included in this analysis. In linear models adjusted for age and BMI, HbA1c was associated with 24-h mean glucose (r² = 0.735, p < 0.001), SD (r² = 0.643, p = 0.039), and dinner iAUC (r² = 0.711, p = 0.001). CGM-derived metrics and non-glycaemic factors explained 77% of the variance in HbA1c, in which postprandial glucose accounted for 32% of the variance explained. The single greatest contributor to HbA1c was dinner iAUC resulting in 0.6%-point (~7 mmol/mol) increase in HbA1c per SD increase in dinner iAUC.

Conclusions

Using comprehensive CGM profiling, we show that postprandial glucose, specifically evening-time postprandial glucose, is the single largest contributing factor to HbA1c in T1D.

Trial registration number

NCT02204839 (July 30th 2014); NCT02595658 (November 3rd 2015).

Addressing shortfalls of laboratory HbA1c using a model that incorporates red cell lifespan

Laboratory HbA_1c does not always predict diabetes complications and our aim was to establish a glycaemic measure that better reflects intracellular glucose exposure in organs susceptible to complications. Six months of continuous glucose monitoring data and concurrent laboratory HbA_1c were evaluated from 51 type 1 diabetes (T1D) and 80 type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients. Red blood cell (RBC) lifespan was estimated using a kinetic model of glucose and HbA_1c, allowing the calculation of person-specific adjusted HbA_1c (aHbA_1c). Median (IQR) RBC lifespan was 100 (86–102) and 100 (83–101) days in T1D and T2D, respectively. The median (IQR) absolute difference between aHbA_1c and laboratory HbA_1c was 3.9 (3.0–14.3) mmol/mol [0.4 (0.3–1.3%)] in T1D and 5.3 (4.1–22.5) mmol/mol [0.5 (0.4–2.0%)] in T2D. aHbA_1c and laboratory HbA_1c showed clinically relevant differences. This suggests that the widely used measurement of HbA_1c can underestimate or overestimate diabetes complication risks, which may have future clinical implications.