Glucose Color Index: Development and Validation of a Novel Measure of the Shape of Glycemic Variability

BACKGROUND

Standard continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) metrics: mean glucose, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, and time in range, fail to capture the shape of variability in the CGM time series. This information could facilitate improved diabetes management.

METHODS

We analyzed CGM data from 141 adults with type 2 diabetes in the Hyperglycemic Profiles in Obstructive Sleep Apnea (HYPNOS) trial. Participants in HYPNOS wore CGM sensors for up to two weeks at two time points, three months apart. We calculated the log-periodogram for each time period, summarizing using disjoint linear models. These summaries were combined into a single value, termed the Glucose Color Index (GCI), using canonical correlation analysis. We compared the between-wear correlation of GCI with those of standard CGM metrics and assessed associations between GCI and diabetes comorbidities in 398 older adults with type 2 diabetes from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

RESULTS

The GCI achieved a test-retest correlation of R = .75. Adjusting for standard CGM metrics, the GCI test-retest correlation was R = .55. Glucose Color Index was significantly associated (p < .05) with impaired physical functioning, frailty/pre-frailty, cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and dementia/mild cognitive impairment after adjustment for confounders.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated the GCI, a novel CGM metric that captures the shape of glucose variability using the periodogram signal decomposition. Glucose Color Index was reliable within participants over a three-month period and associated with diabetes comorbidities. The GCI suggests a promising avenue toward the development of CGM metrics which more fully incorporate time series information.

Associations of Physical Activity and Heart Rate Variability from a Two-Week ECG Monitor with Cognitive Function and Dementia: the ARIC Neurocognitive Study

BACKGROUND

Low physical activity (PA) measured from accelerometers and low heart rate variability (HRV) measured from short-term ECG recordings are associated with worse cognitive function. Wearable long-term ECG monitors are now widely used. These monitors can provide long-term HRV data and, if embedded with an accelerometer, they can also provide PA data. Whether PA or HRV measured from long-term ECG monitors is associated with cognitive function among older adults is unknown.

METHODS

Free-living PA and HRV were measured simultaneously over 14-days using the Zio ® XT Patch among 1590 participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study [aged 72-94 years, 58% female, 32% Black]. Total amount of PA was estimated by total mean amplitude deviation (TMAD) from the 14-day accelerometry raw data. HRV indices (SDNN and rMSSD) were measured from the 14-day ECG raw data. Cognitive factor scores for global cognition, executive function, language, and memory were derived using latent variable methods. Dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI) status was adjudicated. Linear or multinomial regression models examined whether higher PA or higher HRV was cross-sectionally associated with higher factor scores or lower odds of MCI/dementia. Models were adjusted for demographic and medical comorbidities.

RESULTS

Each 1-unit higher in total amount of PA was significantly associated with 0.30 higher global cognition factor scores (95% CI: 0.16-0.44), 0.38 higher executive function factor scores (95% CI: 0.22-0.53), and 62% lower odds of MCI (OR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.22-0.67) or 75% lower odds of dementia (OR: 0.25, 95% CI: 0.08-0.74) versus unimpaired cognition. Neither HRV measure was significantly associated with cognitive function or dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

PA derived from a 2-week ECG monitor with an embedded accelerometer was significantly associated with higher cognitive test performance and lower odds of MCI/dementia among older adults. By contrast, HRV indices measured over 2 weeks were not significantly associated with cognitive outcomes. More research is needed to define the role of wearable ECG monitors as a tool for digital phenotyping of dementia.

CLINICAL PERSPECTIVE

What Is New?: This cross-sectional study evaluated associations between physical activity (PA) and heart rate variability (HRV) measured over 14 days from a wearable ECG monitor with cognitive function.Higher total amount of PA was associated with higher global cognition and executive function, as well as lower odds of mild cognitive impairment or dementia.HRV indices measured over 2 weeks were not significantly associated with cognitive outcomes.What Are the Clinical Implications?: These findings replicate positive associations between PA and cognitive function using accelerometer data from a wearable ECG monitor with an embedded accelerometer.These findings raise the possibility of using wearable ECG monitors (with embedded accelerometers) as a promising tool for digital phenotyping of dementia.

Plasma Neuronal Growth Regulator 1 May Link Physical Activity to Reduced Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Proteome-Wide Study of ARIC Participants

Habitual physical activity (PA) impacts the plasma proteome and reduces the risk of developing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Using a large-scale proteome-wide approach in Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants, we aimed to identify plasma proteins associated with PA and determine which of these may be causally related to lower T2D risk. PA was associated with 92 plasma proteins in discovery (P < 1.01 × 10-5), and 40 remained significant in replication (P < 5.43 × 10-4). Eighteen of these proteins were independently associated with incident T2D (P < 1.25 × 10-3), including neuronal growth regulator 1 (NeGR1; hazard ratio per SD 0.85; P = 7.5 × 10-11). Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) inverse variance weighted analysis indicated that higher NeGR1 reduces T2D risk (odds ratio [OR] per SD 0.92; P = 0.03) and was consistent with MR-Egger, weighted median, and weighted mode sensitivity analyses. A stronger association was observed for the single cis-acting NeGR1 genetic variant (OR per SD 0.80; P = 6.3 × 10-5). Coupled with previous evidence that low circulating NeGR1 levels promote adiposity, its association with PA and potential causal role in T2D shown here suggest that NeGR1 may link PA exposure with metabolic outcomes. Further research is warranted to confirm our findings and examine the interplay of PA, NeGR1, adiposity, and metabolic health.

ARTICLE HIGHLIGHTS

Associations between diet quality and NT-proBNP in U.S. adults, NHANES 1999-2004

Objective

N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a marker of cardiac wall stress and is a predictor of cardiovascular disease. Higher diet quality is associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease. The association between diet quality and subclinical cardiovascular disease assessed by NT-proBNP is uncharacterized. We investigated the associations between diet quality, using Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI-2015), and NT-proBNP from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2004.

Methods

We included 9,782 adults from NHANES 1999-2004 without self-reported cardiovascular disease. The HEI-2015 ranges from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating better diet quality. The HEI-2015 was categorized into sex-specific quintiles. Regression models were used to quantify associations between the overall HEI-2015 score and its 13 components with log-transformed NT-proBNP. The beta coefficients were converted to percent differences.

Results

Among 9,782 participants, mean age was 45 years, 48% were men, and 72% were non-Hispanic White adults. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and medical history, those in the highest vs. lowest HEI-2015 quintile had an 8.5% (95% CI: -14.6% to -2.0%) lower NT-proBNP level. There was a dose-response association between HEI-2015 and NT-proBNP (P value for trend = 0.01). Each 1-unit higher in sodium and added sugars score indicating lower intake was associated with lower NT-proBNP by 7.7% (95% CI: -12.8% to -2.2%) and 6.5% (95% CI: -12.0% to -0.7%), respectively.

Conclusion

Higher diet quality, especially lower intakes of sodium and added sugars, was associated with lower serum levels of NT-proBNP.

Precision subclassification of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes presentation and progression suggests that precision medicine interventions could improve clinical outcomes. We undertook a systematic review to determine whether strategies to subclassify type 2 diabetes were associated with high quality evidence, reproducible results and improved outcomes for patients.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Embase for publications that used 'simple subclassification' approaches using simple categorisation of clinical characteristics, or 'complex subclassification' approaches which used machine learning or 'omics approaches in people with established type 2 diabetes. We excluded other diabetes subtypes and those predicting incident type 2 diabetes. We assessed quality, reproducibility and clinical relevance of extracted full-text articles and qualitatively synthesised a summary of subclassification approaches.

RESULTS

Here we show data from 51 studies that demonstrate many simple stratification approaches, but none have been replicated and many are not associated with meaningful clinical outcomes. Complex stratification was reviewed in 62 studies and produced reproducible subtypes of type 2 diabetes that are associated with outcomes. Both approaches require a higher grade of evidence but support the premise that type 2 diabetes can be subclassified into clinically meaningful subtypes.

CONCLUSION

Critical next steps toward clinical implementation are to test whether subtypes exist in more diverse ancestries and whether tailoring interventions to subtypes will improve outcomes.

Second international consensus report on gaps and opportunities for the clinical translation of precision diabetes medicine

Precision medicine is part of the logical evolution of contemporary evidence-based medicine that seeks to reduce errors and optimize outcomes when making medical decisions and health recommendations. Diabetes affects hundreds of millions of people worldwide, many of whom will develop life-threatening complications and die prematurely. Precision medicine can potentially address this enormous problem by accounting for heterogeneity in the etiology, clinical presentation and pathogenesis of common forms of diabetes and risks of complications. This second international consensus report on precision diabetes medicine summarizes the findings from a systematic evidence review across the key pillars of precision medicine (prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis) in four recognized forms of diabetes (monogenic, gestational, type 1, type 2). These reviews address key questions about the translation of precision medicine research into practice. Although not complete, owing to the vast literature on this topic, they revealed opportunities for the immediate or near-term clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine; furthermore, we expose important gaps in knowledge, focusing on the need to obtain new clinically relevant evidence. Gaps include the need for common standards for clinical readiness, including consideration of cost-effectiveness, health equity, predictive accuracy, liability and accessibility. Key milestones are outlined for the broad clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine.

Effects of Positive Airway Pressure Therapy on Glycemic Variability in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and OSA: A Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Glycemic variability is associated with increased risk for cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes independent of glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) levels. Given the conflicting evidence on the effect of positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy for OSA on HbA1c, elucidating its effect on glycemic variability has value.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Does the use of PAP therapy for OSA improve glycemic variability in patients with type 2 diabetes?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

A randomized controlled trial was conducted in 184 patients with type 2 diabetes and moderate-to-severe OSA. Participants received either 3 months of PAP therapy with lifestyle counseling or lifestyle counseling alone. End points included the SD of glucose levels along with other metrics derived from continuous glucose monitoring and self-monitoring of blood glucose.

RESULTS

No differences were noted in either primary or secondary continuous glucose monitoring end points between the two groups. Average use of PAP therapy was 5.4 h/night (SD, 1.6). Exploratory analyses by sex showed significant differences in the primary and secondary outcomes. In female participants, PAP therapy was associated with improvement in the SD of glucose levels, with a mean difference in change between intervention and control groups of 3.5 mg/dL (P = .02). PAP therapy was also associated with lower post-dinner and bedtime glucose levels: 20.1 mg/dL (P < .01) and 34.6 mg/dL (P < .01), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

PAP therapy did not improve glycemic control or variability in patients with moderate-to-severe OSA and type 2 diabetes. Exploratory analyses suggested that PAP therapy may improve glucose variability in female participants. Post-dinner and bedtime glucose levels were higher in those who did not receive PAP therapy.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT02454153; URL: www.

CLINICALTRIALS

gov.

Prognostic value of insulin resistance and hyperglycemia biomarkers for long-term risks of cardiometabolic outcomes

We found that individuals in the top tertile of HOMA-IR and with HbA1c-defined prediabetes have elevated risk of cardiometabolic outcomes.

Inverse Associations between Measures of Adiposity and Glycated Albumin in US Adults, NHANES 1999-2004

BACKGROUND

Glycated albumin (GA) is a short-term measure of glycemic control. Several studies have demonstrated an inverse association between body mass index (BMI) and GA, which may affect its performance as a biomarker of hyperglycemia. We investigated cross-sectional associations between GA and multiple measures of adiposity, and compared its performance as a glycemic biomarker by obesity status, in a nationally representative sample of US adults.

METHODS

We measured GA in adults from the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Separately in adults with and without diabetes, we assessed associations of GA with adiposity measures (BMI, waist circumference, trunk fat, total body fat, and fat mass index) in sex-stratified multivariable regression models. We compared sensitivity and specificity of GA to identify elevated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), by obesity status.

RESULTS

In covariate-adjusted regression models, all adiposity measures were inversely associated with GA in adults without diabetes (β=-0.48 to -0.22%-point GA per 1 SD adiposity measure; n = 9750) and with diabetes (β=-1.73 to -0.92%-point GA per SD). Comparing adults with vs without obesity, GA exhibited lower sensitivity (43% vs 54%) with equivalent specificity (99%) to detect undiagnosed diabetes (HbA1c ≥ 6.5%). Among adults with diagnosed diabetes (n = 1085), GA performed well to identify above-target glycemia (HbA1c ≥ 7.0%), with high specificity (>80%) overall but lower sensitivity in those with vs without obesity (81% vs 93%).

CONCLUSIONS

Inverse associations between GA and adiposity were present in people with and without diabetes. GA is highly specific but may not be sufficiently sensitive for diabetes screening in adults with obesity.

Global Prevalence of Prediabetes

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the global, regional, and national prevalence of prediabetes, defined by impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) or impaired fasting glucose (IFG).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We reviewed 7,014 publications for high-quality estimates of IGT (2-h glucose, 7.8-11.0 mmol/L [140-199 mg/dL]) and IFG (fasting glucose, 6.1-6.9 mmol/L [110-125 mg/dL]) prevalence for each country. We used logistic regression to generate prevalence estimates for IGT and IFG among adults aged 20-79 years in 2021 and projections for 2045. For countries without in-country data, we extrapolated estimates from countries with available data with similar geography, income, ethnicity, and language. Estimates were standardized to the age distribution for each country from the United Nations.

RESULTS

Approximately two-thirds of countries did not have high-quality IGT or IFG data. There were 50 high-quality studies for IGT from 43 countries and 43 high-quality studies for IFG from 40 countries. Eleven countries had data for both IGT and IFG. The global prevalence of IGT in 2021 was 9.1% (464 million) and is projected to increase to 10.0% (638 million) in 2045. The global prevalence of IFG in 2021 was 5.8% (298 million) and is projected to increase to 6.5% (414 million) in 2045. The 2021 prevalence of IGT and IFG was highest in high-income countries. In 2045, the largest relative growth in cases of IGT and IFG would be in low-income countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of prediabetes is substantial and growing. Enhancing prediabetes surveillance is necessary to effectively implement diabetes prevention policies and interventions.

Systematic review of precision subclassification of type 2 diabetes

Heterogeneity in type 2 diabetes presentation, progression and treatment has the potential for precision medicine interventions that can enhance care and outcomes for affected individuals. We undertook a systematic review to ascertain whether strategies to subclassify type 2 diabetes are associated with improved clinical outcomes, show reproducibility and have high quality evidence. We reviewed publications that deployed 'simple subclassification' using clinical features, biomarkers, imaging or other routinely available parameters or 'complex subclassification' approaches that used machine learning and/or genomic data. We found that simple stratification approaches, for example, stratification based on age, body mass index or lipid profiles, had been widely used, but no strategy had been replicated and many lacked association with meaningful outcomes. Complex stratification using clustering of simple clinical data with and without genetic data did show reproducible subtypes of diabetes that had been associated with outcomes such as cardiovascular disease and/or mortality. Both approaches require a higher grade of evidence but support the premise that type 2 diabetes can be subclassified into meaningful groups. More studies are needed to test these subclassifications in more diverse ancestries and prove that they are amenable to interventions.

Proteomic Predictors of Incident Diabetes: Results From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

The plasma proteome preceding diabetes can improve our understanding of diabetes pathogenesis.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In 8,923 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants (aged 47-70 years, 57% women, 19% Black), we conducted discovery and internal validation for associations of 4,955 plasma proteins with incident diabetes. We externally validated results in the Singapore Multi-Ethnic Cohort (MEC) nested case-control (624 case subjects, 1,214 control subjects). We used Cox regression to discover and validate protein associations and risk-prediction models (elastic net regression with cardiometabolic risk factors and proteins) for incident diabetes. We conducted a pathway analysis and examined causality using genetic instruments.

RESULTS

There were 2,147 new diabetes cases over a median of 19 years. In the discovery sample (n = 6,010), 140 proteins were associated with incident diabetes after adjustment for 11 risk factors (P < 10-5). Internal validation (n = 2,913) showed 64 of the 140 proteins remained significant (P < 0.05/140). Of the 63 available proteins, 47 (75%) were validated in MEC. Novel associations with diabetes were found for 22 the 47 proteins. Prediction models (27 proteins selected by elastic net) developed in discovery had a C statistic of 0.731 in internal validation, with ΔC statistic of 0.011 (P = 0.04) beyond 13 risk factors, including fasting glucose and HbA1c. Inflammation and lipid metabolism pathways were overrepresented among the diabetes-associated proteins. Genetic instrument analyses suggested plasma SHBG, ATP1B2, and GSTA1 play causal roles in diabetes risk.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified 47 plasma proteins predictive of incident diabetes, established causal effects for 3 proteins, and identified diabetes-associated inflammation and lipid pathways with potential implications for diagnosis and therapy.

Prevalence and Correlates of Elevated NT-proBNP in Pregnant Women in the General U.S. Population

BACKGROUND

Physiologic changes in N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) across trimesters of pregnancy have not been well studied.

OBJECTIVES

The authors aimed to measure NT-proBNP in adult women, by pregnancy status and trimester, in a nationally representative sample from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999 to 2004.

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 2,134 women (546 pregnant) aged 20 to 40 years without a history of cardiovascular disease.

RESULTS

Among pregnant women in the first trimester, the prevalence of elevated NT-proBNP (>125 pg/mL) was 20.0% (SE, 6.6%) compared to 2.4% (SE, 0.8%) among women in the third trimester and 8.0% among nonpregnant women. After adjustment for demographics and cardiovascular risk factors, NT-proBNP was 44% higher (absolute difference 26.4 [95% CI: 11.2-41.6] pg/mL) in the first trimester of pregnancy compared to nonpregnant women. Among pregnant women only, adjusted NT-proBNP was 46% lower (absolute difference -22.2 [95% CI: -36.9 to -7.5] pg/mL) in women in the third trimester compared to women in the first trimester. NT-proBNP was inversely associated with body mass index and with systolic blood pressure.

CONCLUSIONS

Women in the first trimester of pregnancy had significantly higher NT-proBNP than those in the third trimester and compared to similarly aged nonpregnant women. The dynamic nature of NT-proBNP should be taken into consideration when ordering NT-proBNP lab tests in pregnant women.

Abstract MP65: Magnesium-Rich Diet Score is Inversely Associated With Incident Cardiovascular Disease: The Atherosclerosis in Communities (ARIC) Study

Background: Numerous studies have shown inverse associations between serum magnesium (Mg) levels and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), but studies of dietary Mg have not been consistent.

Aim: The association of a Mg-rich diet score with risks of incident CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), and ischemic stroke in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study was examined.

Methods: There were 15,022 Black and White adults without prevalent CVD included in this analysis. Diet was assessed at two visits using an interviewer-administered 66-item food frequency questionnaire. A Mg-rich diet score was created including whole grain products, nuts, fruits, vegetables, legumes, coffee, and tea. Cox proportional hazard regression evaluated the associations of incident CVD, CHD and stroke through 2019 across quintiles of Mg-rich diet score adjusted for demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and clinical characteristics.

Results: Participants in the highest quintile of Mg-rich diet score compared to the lowest quintile consumed more servings of Mg-rich foods and fiber and less refined grains, red and processed meat, total fat and saturated fat. Over 30 years of follow up, a Mg-rich diet score was inversely associated with incident CVD (HR Q5 vs Q1 =0.88, 95% CI 0.78-0.99, p trend =0.03) and CHD (HR=0.83, 95% CI 0.72-0.96, p trend =0.01); however the diet-stroke association was null (HR=1.08, 95% CI 1.07-1.09, p trend =0.93) (Table).

Conclusions: Consuming a diet rich in whole grains, nuts, fruits and vegetables, legumes, coffee and tea is consistent with a lower long-term risk of CVD and CHD.

Abstract P151: Late-Life Prediabetes, Diabetes, and Diabetes Duration With Risks of Frailty and Mortality: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

Introduction: Diabetes is a risk factor for frailty and mortality. Longer diabetes duration is associated with higher mortality in older adults, whereas prediabetes is not. Little has been characterized on associations of prediabetes and diabetes duration with frailty risk. Characterizing frailty and mortality risk in older adults with prediabetes and diabetes is useful for planning healthcare resource utilization.

Hypothesis: Longer diabetes duration, but not prediabetes, is associated with higher risks of frailty and mortality in older adults.

Methods: We conducted a prospective analysis of 4119 ARIC Study participants (mean age 75, 56% women, 22% Black adults) who attended visit 5 (2011-3) without prevalent frailty and who attended visit 6 (2016-7) or died without attending visit 6. We used the Fried phenotype to classify frailty based on ≥3 components: unintentional weight loss, exhaustion, grip strength, slow walking speed, low physical activity. We used multinomial logistic regression to estimate relative risk ratios (RRR) for baseline categories of normoglycemia (HbA1c<5.7%), prediabetes (HbA1c 5.7-<6.5%), or diabetes duration <5, 5-<10, or ≥10 years with incident frailty and death.

Results: Over 5 years of follow-up, there were 851 deaths and 229 frailty cases detected at visit 6. The 5-year cumulative incidence of frailty was 3% in older adults without diabetes and 5% in those with diabetes, and the 5-year mortality risk was 15% in older adults without diabetes and 25% in those with diabetes. Compared to those with normoglycemia, older adults with diabetes ≥10 years had higher risk of frailty or mortality after multivariable adjustment ( Table ). Older adults with prediabetes did not have higher risk of frailty or death.

Conclusion: In older adults, longer diabetes duration was associated with high risks of frailty and mortality, whereas prediabetes was not associated with frailty and mortality. Older adults with long-standing diabetes should be targeted for frailty screening and preventive interventions.

Circulating Magnesium and Risk of Major Adverse Cardiac Events among Patients with Atrial Fibrillation in the ARIC Cohort

Background: Serum magnesium (Mg) has been reported to be inversely associated with the risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), coronary artery disease (CAD), and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). The association between serum Mg and the risk of MACE, heart failure (HF), stroke, and all-cause mortality among patients with AF has not been evaluated. Objective: We aim to examine whether higher serum Mg is associated with a lower risk of MACE, heart failure (HF), stroke, and all-cause mortality among patients with AF. Methods: We evaluated prospectively 413 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study with a diagnosis of AF at the time of Mg measurement participating in visit 5 (2011-2013). Serum Mg was modeled in tertiles and as a continuous variable in standard deviation units. Endpoints (HF, MI, stroke, cardiovascular (CV) death, all-cause mortality, and MACE) were identified and modeled separately using Cox proportional hazard regression adjusting for potential confounders. Results: During a mean follow-up of 5.8 years, there were 79 HFs, 34 MIs, 24 strokes, 80 CV deaths, 110 MACEs, and 198 total deaths. After adjustment for demographic and clinical variables, participants in the second and third tertiles of serum Mg had lower rates of most endpoints, with the strongest inverse association for the incidence of MI (HR 0.20, 95% CI 0.07, 0.61) comparing top to bottom tertile. Serum Mg modeled linearly as a continuous variable did not show clear associations with endpoints except MI (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.31, 0.80). Due to the limited number of events, the precision of most estimates of association was relatively low. Conclusions: Among patients with AF, higher serum Mg was associated with a lower risk of developing incident MI and, to a lesser extent, other CV endpoints. Further studies in larger patients with AF cohorts are needed to evaluate the role of serum Mg in preventing adverse CV outcomes in these patients.

Abstract P416: Higher Quality Diet is Associated With Lower Serum Levels of NT-proBNP

Introduction: N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is widely used as a diagnostic biomarker for heart failure. Higher diet quality is associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease. However, the association between diet and subclinical cardiovascular disease, as assessed by biomarker concentrations, is less well-studied.

Hypothesis: We hypothesized that higher diet quality, assessed by the Healthy Eating Index-2015 (HEI-2015), would be associated with lower serum levels of NT-proBNP.

Methods: We included 9,782 adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), 1999-2004. The HEI-2015 ranges from 0 to 100, with higher scores indicating better diet quality, and was categorized into sex-specific quintiles. Weighted multivariable linear regression models were used to estimate associations between the overall HEI-2015 score as well as its 13 components and log-transformed NT-proBNP.

Results: Among 9,782 participants, mean age was 45 years, 48% were men, and 72% were non-Hispanic White adults. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and medical history, persons in the highest HEI-2015 quintile had a 10.0% lower NT-proBNP level compared to those in the lowest HEI-2015 quintile (95% CI: -17.7% to -2.6%). There was a dose-response relationship between HEI-2015 and NT-proBNP ( Figure ). For each 1-unit higher sodium and added sugars score, NT-proBNP was lower by 7.7% and 6.8% respectively (95% CI: -13.8 % to -2.2%, and 95% CI: -13.1% to -0.9% respectively).

Conclusion: Higher diet quality, especially lower intakes of sodium and added sugars, was associated with lower serum levels of NT-proBNP.

Abstract P600: Beyond Mean Glucose: Development of Novel, Reproducible Continuous Glucose Monitoring Metrics

Introduction: Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) devices record blood glucose every few minutes over a maximum 2-week wear period. Despite the richness of these data, existing first and second moment statistics (such as mean glucose) fail to capture the “shape” of variation in the CGM time-series.

Objective: We developed novel, reproducible CGM shape metrics using functionals of the periodogram, a decomposition of CGM signal ( Figure 1A ) variance, to comprehensively characterize glucose patterns.

Methods: We analyzed CGM data from N = 160 HYPNOS clinical trial participants with type 2 diabetes who wore CGM sensors twice, 3 months apart. We first calculated log-transformed periodograms for each person-period. To these decompositions, we fit piece-wise linear models over 3 frequency ranges: less than 1/24 hrs -1 (long term patterns), 1/24 to 2/5 hrs -1 (daily diet patterns), and greater than 2/5 hrs -1 (immediate fluctuations due to food). Slopes of fit segments, value at first frequency, and values at segment midpoints were extracted as our initial metrics ( Figure 1B ). We estimated and compared the within-person test-retest correlation for our shape measures against existing CGM and glucose metrics: mean glucose, time-in-range, and HhbA1c.

Results: The highest raw correlation among the new shape metrics (r = 0.737) was comparable to that of the existing metrics (r = 0.798) ( Figure 1C ). Even after adjusting the shape metrics for existing metrics, there was a maximum test-retest correlation of r = 0.778. The shape metrics also carried information distinct from existing metrics. According to mixed effect models fit to data from both wear periods, the shape metrics explain less than 16% of variance in any existing metric when controlled for the other existing metrics.

Conclusion: These new shape metrics carry reproducible information distinct from that of standard CGM metrics and HbA1c. The next step is to evaluate whether these novel shape metrics, which leverage the granularity of CGM data, can be linked to clinical endpoints.

Performance of the Glucose Management Indicator (GMI) in Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND

The glucose management indicator (GMI) is an estimated measure of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) recommended for the management of persons with diabetes using continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). However, GMI was derived primarily in young adults with type 1 diabetes, and its performance in patients with type 2 diabetes is poorly characterized.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study in 144 adults with obstructive sleep apnea and type 2 diabetes not using insulin (mean age: 59.4 years; 45.1% female). HbA1c was measured at the study screening visit. Participants simultaneously wore 2 CGM sensors (Dexcom G4 and Abbott Libre Pro) for up to 4 weeks (2 weeks at baseline and 2 weeks at the 3-month follow-up visit). GMI was calculated using all available CGM data for each sensor.

RESULTS

Median wear time was 27 days (IQR: 23-29) for the Dexcom G4 and 28 days (IQR: 24-29) for the Libre Pro. The mean difference between HbA1c and GMI was small (0.12-0.14 percentage points) (approximately 2 mmol/mol). However, the 2 measures were only moderately correlated (r = 0.68-0.71), and there was substantial variability in GMI at any given value of HbA1c (root mean squared error: 0.66-0.69 percentage points [7 to 8 mmol/mol]). Between 36% and 43% of participants had an absolute difference between HbA1c and GMI ≥0.5 percentage points (≥5 mmol/mol), and 9% to 18% had an absolute difference >1 percentage points (>11 mmol/mol). Discordance was higher in the Libre Pro than the Dexcom G4.

CONCLUSIONS

GMI may be an unreliable measure of glycemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes and should be interpreted cautiously in clinical practice.Clinicaltrials.gov Registration Number: NCT02454153.

Within-Person and Between-Sensor Variability in Continuous Glucose Monitoring Metrics

BACKGROUND

The within-person and between-sensor variability of metrics from different interstitial continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensors in adults with type 2 diabetes not taking insulin is unclear.

METHODS

Secondary analysis of data from 172 participants from the Hyperglycemic Profiles in Obstructive Sleep Apnea randomized clinical trial. Participants simultaneously wore Dexcom G4 and Abbott Libre Pro CGM sensors for up to 2 weeks at baseline and again at the 3-month follow-up visit.

RESULTS

At baseline (up to 2 weeks of CGM), mean glucose for both the Abbott and Dexcom sensors was approximately 150 mg/dL (8.3 mmol/L) and time in range (70180 mg/dL [3.910.0 mmol/L]) was just below 80. When comparing the same sensor at 2 different time points (two 2-week periods, 3 months apart), the within-person coefficient of variation (CVw) in mean glucose was 17.4 (Abbott) and 14.2 (Dexcom). CVw for percent time in range: 20.1 (Abbott) and 18.6 (Dexcom). At baseline, the Pearson correlation of mean glucose from the 2 sensors worn simultaneously was r 0.86, root mean squared error (RMSE), 13 mg/dL (0.7 mmol/L); for time in range, r 0.88, RMSE, 8 percentage points.

CONCLUSIONS

Substantial variation was observed within sensors over time and across 2 different sensors worn simultaneously on the same individuals. Clinicians should be aware of this variability when using CGM technology to make clinical decisions.ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02454153.

Performance of glycated albumin as a biomarker of hyperglycemia in pregnancy: Results from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004

AIM

We sought to evaluate the performance of glycated albumin (GA) as a measure of hyperglycemia in pregnant women.

METHODS

We used data from 555 pregnant women aged 20-40 years who participated in NHANES 1999-2004 and did not report a pre-pregnancy diagnosis of diabetes. We used Pearson's correlations and evaluated the area under the curve (AUC) for GA to detect elevated concentrations of random glucose, HbA1c, or fasting glucose (subset). We compared results to 1607 nonpregnant women aged 20-40 without diabetes.

RESULTS

In pregnant women, 1.9 % had HbA1c ≥ 39 mmol/mol (≥5.7 %), 9.1 % had random glucose ≥ 5.3 mmol/L (≥95 mg/dL), and 10.7 % had fasting glucose ≥ 5.3 mmol/L. In pregnancy, GA was poorly correlated with HbA1c (r = 0.08) and random glucose (r = 0.17). BMI was positively associated with HbA1c (r = 0.33) and random glucose (r = 0.25) but was inversely associated with GA (r = -0.27). GA had poor discrimination for detecting hyperglycemia in pregnant women, defined as HbA1c ≥ 39 mmol/mol (AUC = 0.634) or random glucose ≥ 5.3 mmol/L (AUC = 0.628). Similar patterns were observed among nonpregnant women.

CONCLUSIONS

GA is not a sensitive test to screen for hyperglycemia in pregnancy. GA was inversely associated with adiposity in pregnant women without diabetes. Pregnancy-related weight gain may complicate interpretation of repeated GA measurements.

Comparison of Proteomic Measurements Across Platforms in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

BACKGROUND

The plasma proteome can be quantified using different types of highly multiplexed technologies, including aptamer-based and proximity-extension immunoassay methods. There has been limited characterization of how these protein measurements correlate across platforms and with absolute measures from targeted immunoassays.

METHODS

We assessed the comparability of (a) highly multiplexed aptamer-based (SomaScan v4; Somalogic) and proximity-extension immunoassay (OLINK Proseek® v5003; Olink) methods in 427 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study participants (Visit 5, 2011-2013), and (b) 18 of the SomaScan protein measurements against targeted immunoassays in 110 participants (55 cardiovascular disease cases, 55 controls). We calculated Spearman correlations (r) between the different measurements and compared associations with case-control status.

RESULTS

There were 417 protein comparisons (366 unique proteins) between the SomaScan and Olink platforms. The average correlation was r = 0.46 (range: -0.21 to 0.97; 79 [19%] with r ≥ 0.8). For the comparison of SomaScan and targeted immunoassays, 6 of 18 assays (growth differentiation factor 15 [GDF15], interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 [ST2], interstitial collagenase [MMP1], adiponectin, leptin, and resistin) had good correlations (r ≥ 0.8), 2 had modest correlations (0.5 ≤ r < 0.8; osteopontin and interleukin-6 [IL6]), and 10 were poorly correlated (r < 0.5; metalloproteinase inhibitor 1 [TIMP1], stromelysin-1 [MMP3], matrilysin [MMP7], C-C motif chemokine 2 [MCP1], interleukin-10 [IL10], vascular cell adhesion protein 1 [VCAM1], intercellular adhesion molecule 1 [ICAM1], interleukin-18 [IL18], tumor necrosis factor [TNFα], and visfatin) overall. Correlations for SomaScan and targeted immunoassays were similar according to case status.

CONCLUSIONS

There is variation in the quantitative measurements for many proteins across aptamer-based and proximity-extension immunoassays (approximately 1/2 showing good or modest correlation and approximately 1/2 poor correlation) and also for correlations of these highly multiplexed technologies with targeted immunoassays. Design and interpretation of protein quantification studies should be informed by the variation across measurement techniques for each protein.

Proteomic analysis of diabetes genetic risk scores identifies complement C2 and neuropilin-2 as predictors of type 2 diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes is well-established, and genetic risk scores (GRS) have been developed that capture heritable liabilities for type 2 diabetes phenotypes. However, the proteins through which these genetic variants influence risk have not been thoroughly investigated. This study aimed to identify proteins and pathways through which type 2 diabetes risk variants may influence pathophysiology.

METHODS

Using a proteomics data-driven approach in a discovery sample of 7241 White participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC) cohort and a replication sample of 1674 Black ARIC participants, we interrogated plasma levels of 4870 proteins and four GRS of specific type 2 diabetes phenotypes related to beta cell function, insulin resistance, lipodystrophy, BMI/blood lipid abnormalities and a composite score of all variants combined.

RESULTS

Twenty-two plasma proteins were identified in White participants after Bonferroni correction. Of the 22 protein-GRS associations that were statistically significant, 10 were replicated in Black participants and all but one were directionally consistent. In a secondary analysis, 18 of the 22 proteins were found to be associated with prevalent type 2 diabetes and ten proteins were associated with incident type 2 diabetes. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation indicated that complement C2 may be causally related to greater type 2 diabetes risk (inverse variance weighted estimate: OR 1.65 per SD; p=7.0 × 10-3), while neuropilin-2 was inversely associated (OR 0.44 per SD; p=8.0 × 10-3).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Identified proteins may represent viable intervention or pharmacological targets to prevent, reverse or slow type 2 diabetes progression, and further research is needed to pursue these targets.

The Associations of Mean Glucose and Time in Range from Continuous Glucose Monitoring with HbA1c in Adults with Type 2 Diabetes

Associations of mean glucose and time in range (70-180 mg/dL) from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) with HbA1c in adults with type 2 diabetes are not well characterized. We conducted a secondary analysis of 186 participants from the Hyperglycemic Profiles in Obstructive Sleep Apnea (HYPNOS) trial. Participants simultaneously wore Dexcom G4 and Abbott Libre Pro CGM sensors up to 4 weeks. Mean HbA1c was 7.7% (SD, 1.3). There were strong negative Pearson's correlations of HbA1c with CGM time in range (-0.79, Abbott; -0.81, Dexcom) and strong positive correlations with CGM mean glucose (Dexcom, 0.84; Abbott, 0.82). However, there were large differences in CGM mean glucose (±20 mg/dL) and time in range (±14%) at any given HbA1c value. Mean glucose and HbA1c are strongly correlated in type 2 diabetes patients not taking insulin but discordance is evident at the individual level. Clinicians should expect discordance and use HbA1c and CGM in a complementary manner. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02454153.

Glycated Albumin and Risk of Mortality in the US Adult Population

BACKGROUND

Glycated albumin is of growing interest as an alternative biomarker of glycemia. However, the association of glycated albumin with long-term outcomes in the general population is uncharacterized. We evaluated the associations of glycated albumin and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) with mortality in US adults.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective analysis of 12 915 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004. We used Cox regression to characterize associations of glycated albumin and HbA1c with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality through 2014. We categorized glycated albumin based on percentiles corresponding to clinical cut-points for HbA1c. No diagnosed diabetes: <5.0% (<12th percentile), 5.0% to 5.6% (12th-82nd percentile, reference), 5.7% to 6.4% (83rd-97th percentile), and ≥6.5% (≥98th percentile). Diagnosed diabetes: <7.0% (<50th percentile), 7.0% to 8.9% (50th-83rd percentile), and ≥9.0% (≥84th percentile).

RESULTS

Among US adults (mean age 46 years), the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes was 6.8%. Glycated albumin and HbA1c were highly correlated (r = 0.76). Over the median 16.8 years follow-up, there were 2818 deaths (652 cardiovascular). Adults with diagnosed diabetes and glycated albumin ≥84th percentile had the highest risk for all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 3.96, 95% CI 3.06-5.13] and cardiovascular mortality (HR 6.80, 95% CI 4.20-11.03). HbA1c had associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality that were similar to those for glycated albumin.

CONCLUSIONS

Among US adults, increased values of glycated albumin and HbA1c were associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, particularly in persons with diagnosed diabetes. Glycated albumin may be a useful alternative test of glycemia.

The performance of glycated albumin as a biomarker of hyperglycemia and cardiometabolic risk in children and adolescents in the United States

OBJECTIVE

Diabetes and prediabetes are growing concerns among US youth. Fasting glucose (FG) and HbA1c are standard diabetes screening tests, but HbA1c may be unreliable in some settings and fasting is burdensome in children. Glycated albumin (GA) is a non-fasting test that was recently cleared for clinical use in the United States, but studies in youth without diabetes are limited.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis in 6826 youth without diabetes aged 8-19 years in the 1999-2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We evaluated the associations of GA with HbA1c, FG, and cardiometabolic risk factors.

RESULTS

GA was poorly correlated with HbA1c (ρ = 0.074) and FG (ρ = -0.047) and was negatively associated with body mass index (BMI) and cardiometabolic risk factors. Compared to youth in the highest tertile of GA (≥13.5%), those in the lowest GA tertile (<12.4%) had a higher prevalence of obesity (29.9% vs. 7.6%), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (29.7% vs. 16.5%), and hypertensive blood pressure (4.0% vs. 2.7%). These inverse associations persisted after adjustment for age, sex, race/ethnicity, serum albumin, and C-reactive protein.

CONCLUSIONS

GA was poorly correlated with traditional markers of hyperglycemia in youth without diabetes. Counterintuitively, there was a negative association between GA and BMI. Among youth without diabetes, GA does not identify youth at high cardiometabolic risk, and it does not appear to be an appropriate biomarker for screening of hyperglycemia.

Glycated Albumin in Pristine and Non-Pristine Stored Samples in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999–2004

Background

Glycated albumin is cleared by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for clinical use in diabetes care. To understand its performance in the general US population, we conducted measurements in &gt;19 000 samples from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Of these samples, 5.7% had previously undergone at least 2 freeze–thaw cycles and were considered “non-pristine.”

Methods

We measured glycated albumin and albumin using the Lucica GA-L (Asahi Kasei) assay in stored serum samples from NHANES 1999–2004. Serum albumin (Roche/Beckman) was previously measured. We examined the correlations of percent glycated albumin with hemoglobin A1C (HbA1c)and fasting glucose in the pristine and non-pristine samples. We also measured cystatin C (Siemens) and compared these to cystatin C (Dade Behring) previously obtained in a subsample.

Results

Glycated albumin (%) was significantly lower in pristine vs non-pristine samples (13.8% vs 23.4%, P &lt; 0.0001). The results from the Asahi Kasei albumin assay (g/dL) were highly correlated with albumin originally measured in NHANES (Pearson’s correlation coefficient, r = 0.76) but values were systematically higher (+0.25 g/dL, P &lt; 0.0001). Cystatin C (Siemens) was similar to previous cystatin C measurements (r = 0.98) and did not differ by pristine status (P = 0.119). Glycated albumin (%) was highly correlated with HbA1c and fasting glucose in pristine samples (r = 0.78 and r = 0.71, respectively) but not in non-pristine samples (r = 0.11 and r = 0.12, respectively).

Conclusions

The performance of the glycated albumin assay in the pristine samples was excellent. Performance in non-pristine samples was highly problematic. Analyses of glycated albumin in NHANES 1999–2004 should be limited to pristine samples only. These results have major implications for the use of these public data.

Glycemic excursions and subclinical cardiac damage in adults with type 2 diabetes: Results from the ADVANCE Trial

We found that 1,5-anhydroglucitol-a marker of glucose excursions-was not independently associated with subclinical cardiac damage, nor with vascular outcomes, in the ADVANCE Trial. High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and N-terminal pro-b-type natriuretic peptide provided better prognostic information regarding vascular risk in diabetes than 1,5-anhydroglucitol.

Association of Proton Pump Inhibitors With Higher Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Heart Failure

OBJECTIVE

To examine associations of cumulative exposure to proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) with total cardiovascular disease (CVD; composed of stroke, coronary heart disease, and heart failure [HF]) and HF alone in a cohort study of White and African American participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

METHODS

Use of PPIs was assessed by pill bottle inspection at visit 1 (January 1, 1987 to 1989) and up to 10 additional times before baseline (visit 5; 2011 to 2013). We calculated cumulative exposure to PPIs as days of use from visit 1 to baseline. Participants (n=4346 free of total CVD at visit 5; mean age, 75 years) were observed for incident total CVD and HF events through December 31, 2016. We used Cox regression to measure associations of PPIs with total CVD and HF.

RESULTS

After adjustment for potential confounding variables, participants with a cumulative exposure to PPIs of more than 5.1 years had a 2.02-fold higher risk of total CVD (95% CI, 1.50 to 2.72) and a 2.21-fold higher risk of HF (95% CI, 1.51 to 3.23) than nonusers.

CONCLUSION

Long-term PPI use was associated with twice the risk of total CVD and HF compared with nonusers. Our findings are in concordance with other research and suggest another reason to be cautious of PPI overuse.

Proton Pump Inhibitor Use, Hypomagnesemia and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

GOALS

The goal of this study was to evaluate whether proton pump inhibitor (PPI) use is cross-sectionally associated with hypomagnesemia and whether hypomagnesemia mediates the prospective association between PPIs and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.

BACKGROUND

Use of PPIs has been associated with hypomagnesemia, primarily in case reports or within insurance databases. Both PPI use and low serum magnesium (Mg) have been associated with modestly higher CVD risk. Yet, the interrelation between PPI use and Mg in relation to CVD risk is unclear.

STUDY

The 4436 Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities participants without prevalent CVD at visit 5 (baseline, 2011-2013) were included. Multivariable relative risk regression was used for cross-sectional analyses between PPI and hypomagnesemia prevalence (≤0.75 mmol/L). Incident CVD (defined by atrial fibrillation, coronary heart disease, CVD mortality, heart failure, stroke) was identified through 2017. Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the PPI-CVD association.

RESULTS

Participants were mean±SD aged 75±5 years; 63% were women, 23% Black, and 24% were PPI users. PPI users had 1.24-fold (95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.44) higher prevalence of hypomagnesemia than nonusers. Over a median 5 years of follow-up, 684 incident CVD events occurred. PPI users had higher CVD risk [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.31 (1.10-1.57)] than nonusers. The effect estimate was largely unchanged when hypomagnesemia was added to the model as a potential mediator.

CONCLUSIONS

In this elderly community-based study, PPI users had a higher prevalence of hypomagnesemia than in nonusers. PPI users also had higher CVD risk than nonusers; however, it appears unlikely that hypomagnesemia explains associations of PPIs with CVD risk.

American Diabetes Association Framework for Glycemic Control in Older Adults: Implications for Risk of Hospitalization and Mortality

OBJECTIVE

The 2021 American Diabetes Association (ADA) guidelines recommend different A1C targets in older adults that are based on comorbid health status. We assessed risk of mortality and hospitalizations in older adults with diabetes across glycemic control (A1C <7%, 7 to <8%, ≥8%) and ADA-defined health status (healthy, complex/intermediate, very complex/poor) categories.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Prospective cohort analysis of older adults aged 66-90 years with diagnosed diabetes in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.

RESULTS

Of the 1,841 participants (56% women, 29% Black), 32% were classified as healthy, 42% as complex/intermediate, and 27% as very complex/poor health. Over a median 6-year follow-up, there were 409 (22%) deaths and 4,130 hospitalizations (median [25th-75th percentile] 1 per person [0-3]). In the very complex/poor category, individuals with A1C ≥8% (vs. <7%) had higher mortality risk (hazard ratio 1.76 [95% CI 1.15-2.71]), even after adjustment for glucose-lowering medication use. Within the very complex/poor health category, individuals with A1C ≥8% (vs. <7%) had more hospitalizations (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.41 [95% CI 1.03-1.94]). In the complex/intermediate group, individuals with A1C ≥8% (vs. <7%) had more hospitalizations, even with adjustment for glucose-lowering medication use (IRR 1.64 [1.21-2.24]). Results were similar, but imprecise, when the analysis was restricted to insulin or sulfonylurea users (n = 663).

CONCLUSIONS

There were substantial differences in mortality and hospitalizations across ADA health status categories, but older adults with A1C <7% were not at elevated risk, regardless of health status. Our results support the 2021 ADA guidelines and indicate that <7% is a reasonable treatment goal in some older adults with diabetes.

Life's Simple 7 cardiovascular health score and premature atrial contractions: The atherosclerosis risk in communities (ARIC) study

BACKGROUND

Premature atrial contractions (PACs) are associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) and ischemic stroke. Although lifestyle and risk factor modification reduces AF incidence, their relationship to PACs frequency is unclear. We assessed the association of Life's Simple 7 (LS7) and individual LS7 factors in midlife with PACs frequency in late life in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.

METHODS

We followed 1924 participants from ARIC clinic Visit 3 (1993--95) to Visit 6 (2016-17) when a 2-week continuous heart rhythm monitor (Zio®XT Patch) was applied. LS7 factors were assessed at Visit 3 and a composite score was calculated. PACs frequency was categorized as minimal (<0.1%), occasional (≥0.1%-5%) and frequent (>5%). Logistic regression was used to evaluate the association of LS7 score and individual factors with PACs frequency.

RESULTS

Each 1-point LS7 score increase was associated with lower odds of frequent PACs vs. no PACs (OR [95% CI]: 0.87 [0.78, 0.98]) and frequent PACs vs. occasional PACs (OR [95% CI]: 0.88 [0.79, 0.98]). Of the individual LS7 factors, compared with ideal physical activity, poor physical activity was associated with 81% higher odds of frequent PACs vs. no PACs. Compared with ideal BMI, poor BMI was associated with 41% higher odds of occasional PACs vs. no PACs.

CONCLUSION

Lifestyle risk factors, particularly physical activity and BMI, are associated with higher odds of PACs frequency. More research is needed to determine whether modifying these risk factors in midlife would prevent frequent PACs, and thereby prevent AF and stroke in older age.

Frequent Premature Atrial Contractions Are Associated With Poorer Cognitive Function in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association of premature atrial contraction (PAC) frequency with cognitive test scores and prevalence of dementia or mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis using Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study visit 6 (January 1, 2016, through December 31, 2017) data. We included 2163 participants without atrial fibrillation (AF) (age mean ± SD, 79±4 years; 1273 (58.9%) female; and 604 (27.97.0% Black) who underwent cognitive testing and wore a leadless, ambulatory electrocardiogram monitor for 14 days. We categorized PAC frequency based on the percent of beats: less than 1%, minimal; 1% to <5%, occasional; greater than or equal to 5%, frequent. We derived cognitive domain-specific factor scores (memory, executive function, language, and global z-score). Dementia and MCI were adjudicated.

RESULTS

During a mean analyzable time of 12.6±2.6 days, 339 (15.7%) had occasional PACs and 107 (4.9%) had frequent PACs. Individuals with frequent PACs (vs minimal) had lower executive function factor scores by 0.30 (95% CI, -0.46 to -0.14) and lower global factor scores by 0.20 (95% CI, -0.33 to -0.07) after multivariable adjustment. Individuals with frequent PACs (vs minimal) had higher odds of prevalent dementia or MCI after multivariable adjustment (odds ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.09 to 2.79). These associations were unchanged with additional adjustment for stroke.

CONCLUSION

In community-dwelling older adults without AF, frequent PACs were cross-sectionally associated with lower executive and global cognitive function and greater prevalence of dementia or MCI, independently of stroke. Our findings lend support to the notion that atrial cardiomyopathy may be a driver of AF-related outcomes. Further research to confirm these associations prospectively and to elucidate underlying mechanisms is warranted.

Risk of Progression to Diabetes Among Older Adults With Prediabetes

IMPORTANCE

The term prediabetes is used to identify individuals at increased risk for diabetes. However, the natural history of prediabetes in older age is not well characterized.

OBJECTIVES

To compare different prediabetes definitions and characterize the risks of prediabetes and diabetes among older adults in a community-based setting.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this prospective cohort analysis of 3412 older adults without diabetes from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (baseline, 2011-2013), participants were contacted semiannually through December 31, 2017, and attended a follow-up visit between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2017 (median [range] follow-up, 5.0 [0.1-6.5] years).

EXPOSURES

Prediabetes defined by a glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) level of 5.7% to 6.4%, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) level (FG level of 100-125 mg/dL), either, or both.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Incident total diabetes (physician diagnosis, glucose-lowering medication use, HbA1c level ≥6.5%, or FG level ≥126 mg/dL).

RESULTS

A total of 3412 participants without diabetes (mean [SD] age, 75.6 [5.2] years; 2040 [60%] female; and 572 [17%] Black) attended visit 5 (2011-2013, baseline). Of the 3412 participants at baseline, a total of 2497 participants attended the follow-up visit or died. During the 6.5-year follow-up period, there were 156 incident total diabetes cases (118 diagnosed) and 434 deaths. A total of 1490 participants (44%) had HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4%, 1996 (59%) had IFG, 2482 (73%) met the HbA1c or IFG criteria, and 1004 (29%) met both the HbA1c and IFG criteria. Among participants with HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4% at baseline, 97 (9%) progressed to diabetes, 148 (13%) regressed to normoglycemia (HbA1c, <5.7%), and 207 (19%) died. Of those with IFG at baseline, 112 (8%) progressed to diabetes, 647 (44%) regressed to normoglycemia (FG, <100 mg/dL), and 236 (16%) died. Of those with baseline HbA1c levels less than 5.7%, 239 (17%) progressed to HbA1c levels of 5.7% to 6.4% and 41 (3%) developed diabetes. Of those with baseline FG levels less than 100 mg/dL, 80 (8%) progressed to IFG (FG, 100-125 mg/dL) and 26 (3%) developed diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this community-based cohort study of older adults, the prevalence of prediabetes was high; however, during the study period, regression to normoglycemia or death was more frequent than progression to diabetes. These findings suggest that prediabetes may not be a robust diagnostic entity in older age.

Glycaemic markers and all-cause mortality in older adults with and without diabetes: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

There is controversy regarding the performance of HbA1c in old age. We evaluated the prognostic value of HbA1c and other glycaemic markers (fructosamine, glycated albumin, fasting glucose) with mortality risk in older adults (66-90 years).

METHODS

This was a prospective analysis of 5636 participants (31% with diagnosed diabetes, mean age 76, 58% female, 21% black) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, baseline 2011-2013. We used Cox regression to examine associations of glycaemic markers (modelled in categories) with mortality risk, stratified by diagnosed diabetes status.

RESULTS

During a median of 6 years of follow-up, 983 deaths occurred. Among older adults with diabetes, 30% had low HbA1c (<42 mmol/mol [<6.0%]) and 10% had high HbA1c (≥64 mmol/mol [≥8.0%]); low (HR 1.32 [95% CI 1.04, 1.68]) and high (HR 1.86 [95% CI 1.32, 2.62]) HbA1c were associated with mortality risk vs HbA1c 42-52 mmol/mol (6.0-6.9%) after demographic adjustment. Low fructosamine and glycated albumin were not associated with mortality risk. Both low and high fasting glucose were associated with mortality risk. After further adjustment for lifestyle and clinical risk factors, high HbA1c (HR 1.81 [95% CI 1.28, 2.56]), fructosamine (HR 1.96 [95% CI 1.43-2.69]), glycated albumin (HR 1.81 [95% CI 1.33-2.47]) and fasting glucose (HR 1.81 [95% CI 1.24, 2.66]) were associated with mortality risk. Low HbA1c and fasting glucose were no longer significantly associated with mortality risk. Among participants without diabetes, associations of glycaemic markers with mortality risk were less robust.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Elevated HbA1c, fructosamine, glycated albumin and fasting glucose were associated with risk of mortality in older adults with diabetes. Low HbA1c and fasting glucose may be markers of poor prognosis but are possibly confounded by health status. Our findings support the clinical use of HbA1c in older adults with diabetes. Graphical abstract.

Association of Life's Simple 7 with Atrial Fibrillation Burden (From the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study)

The American Heart Association's Life's Simple 7 (LS7) metric consists of 7 modifiable risk factors. Although a more favorable LS7 risk factor profile is associated with lower AF incidence, this relation is unknown in regard to AF burden. We assessed the prospective association of overall LS7 score and individual LS7 risk factors in midlife with AF burden in late-life in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. LS7 components were assessed at Visit 3 (1993 to 1995) and a composite score ranging from 0 to 14 was calculated. A higher score indicates better cardiovascular health. AF burden was measured at Visit 6 (2016 to 2017) with a 2-week Zio XT Patch. AF burden, defined as the percent of time a participant was in AF, was categorized as none, intermittent (>0 to <100%), or continuous (100%). Weighted multinomial logistic regression was used. Of the 2,363 participants, 58% were female and 24% were black. Participants were aged 57 ± 5 years at Visit 3 and 79 ± 5 years at Visit 6. From the Zio XT Patch, 5% had continuous AF, 4% had intermittent AF, and 91% had none. After multivariable adjustment, each 1-point increase in LS7 score had 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79 to 0.95) higher odds of continuous AF than no AF. Individually, poor levels of physical activity, BMI, and fasting blood glucose were associated with greater AF burden. In conclusion, this population-based prospective cohort study reports that unfavorable cardiovascular health profile in midlife is associated with higher AF burden in late-life and future research to evaluate the effectiveness of optimizing physical activity, BMI, and fasting blood glucose in lowering AF burden is warranted.

Rationale and design of the Hyperglycemic Profiles in Obstructive Sleep Apnea (HYPNOS) trial

The Hyperglycemic Profiles in Obstructive Sleep Apnea (HYPNOS) randomized clinical trial was conducted in adults with type 2 diabetes and moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) to determine whether treatment with positive airway pressure (PAP) therapy is associated with improvements in glycemic measures. Participants were randomly assigned to PAP therapy with lifestyle counseling or lifestyle counseling alone. While observational and experimental evidence indicate that intermittent hypoxemia and recurrent arousals in OSA may alter glucose metabolism and worsen glycemic measures, the effect of treating OSA with PAP therapy on these measures in type 2 diabetes is uncertain. Adequately powered randomized clinical trials have yet to be performed to demonstrate whether PAP therapy for OSA in patients with type 2 diabetes can improve glycemic measures. The HYPNOS trial was designed to determine whether PAP therapy for OSA in patients with type 2 diabetes over 3 months leads to improvements in glycemic measures including glycemic variability (standard deviation) based on Dexcom G4 Platinum continuous glucose monitoring. Secondary objectives were to assess the effects of PAP therapy for OSA on measures of: (1) glycemic variability based on Abbott Freestyle Pro Libre continuous glucose monitoring; (2) point-of-care hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c); (3) degree of post-prandial hyperglycemia as determined by 7-point self-monitoring of blood glucose; (4) clinic and ambulatory blood pressure; and (5) endothelial function. The HYPNOS trial was designed to address gaps in our understanding of the effects of PAP therapy on glucose metabolism in adults with type 2 diabetes and moderate-to-severe OSA. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02454153.

Association of Ventricular Arrhythmias With Dementia: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

OBJECTIVE

We performed a cross-sectional analysis to determine whether nonsustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT) and premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) were associated with dementia in a population-based study.

METHODS

We included 2,517 (mean age 79 years, 26% Black) participants who wore a 2-week ambulatory continuous ECG recording device in 2016 to 2017. NSVT was defined as a wide-complex tachycardia ≥4 beats with a rate >100 bpm. We calculated NSVT and PVC burden as the number of episodes per day. Dementia was adjudicated by experts. We used logistic regression to assess the associations of NSVT and PVCs with dementia.

RESULTS

The mean recording time of the Zio XT Patch was 12.6 ± 2.6 days. There were 768 (31%) participants with NSVT; prevalence was similar in White and Black participants. There were 134 (6.5%) dementia cases (5% in White, 10% in Black participants). After multivariable adjustment, there was no overall association between NSVT and dementia; however, there was a significant race interaction (p < 0.001). In Black participants, NSVT was associated with a 3.67 times higher adjusted odds of dementia (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.92-7.02) compared to those without NSVT, whereas in White participants NSVT was not associated with dementia (odds ratio [95% CI] 0.64 [0.37-1.10]). In Black participants only, a higher burden of PVCs was associated with dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

Presence of NSVT and a higher burden of NSVT and PVCs are associated with dementia in elderly Black people. Further research to confirm this novel finding and to elucidate the underlying mechanisms is warranted.

Serum magnesium and burden of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study

INTRODUCTION

Low serum magnesium (Mg) is associated with an increased incidence of atrial and ventricular arrhythmias. A richer phenotyping of arrhythmia indices, such as burden or frequency, may provide etiologic insights.

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate cross-sectional associations of serum Mg with burden of atrial arrhythmias [atrial fibrillation (AF), premature atrial contractions (PAC), supraventricular tachycardia (SVT)], and ventricular arrhythmias [premature ventricular contractions (PVC), non-sustained ventricular tachycardia (NSVT)] over 2-weeks of ECG monitoring.

METHODS

We included 2513 ARIC Study visit 6 (2016-2017) participants who wore the Zio XT Patch-a leadless, ambulatory ECG-monitor-for up to 2-weeks. Serum Mg was modeled categorically and continuously. AF burden was categorized as intermittent or continuous based on the percent of analyzable time spent in AF. Other arrhythmia burdens were defined by the average number of abnormal beats per day. Linear regression was used for continuous outcomes; logistic and multinomial regression were used for categorical outcomes.

RESULTS

Participants were mean ± SD age 79 ± 5 years, 58% were women and 25% black. Mean serum Mg was 0.82 ± 0.08 mmol/L and 19% had hypomagnesemia (<0.75 mmol/L). Serum Mg was inversely associated with PVC burden and continuous AF. The AF association was no longer statistically significant with further adjustment for traditional lifestyle risk factors, only the association with PVC burden remained significant. There were no associations between serum Mg and other arrhythmias examined.

CONCLUSIONS

In this community-based cohort of older adults, we found little evidence of independent cross-sectional associations between serum Mg and arrhythmia burden.

Association between excessive daytime sleepiness and measures of supraventricular arrhythmia burden: evidence from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

PURPOSE

Excessive daytime sleepiness is a common sleep complaint among older adults. Assessment of excessive daytime sleepiness is used to screen for obstructive sleep apnea, which may be linked to atrial fibrillation (AF) and other sustained arrhythmias. Using data from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study cohort, we examined the association of excessive daytime sleepiness with measures of arrhythmia burden derived from a continuous ECG recording device in a community-based sample of older adults.

METHODS

Participating older adults (N = 2306, mean age: 78.9 ± 4.5 years, 57.8% female) wore a Zio® XT Patch for 14 days. Excessive daytime sleepiness was assessed with the Epworth Sleepiness Scale. Measures of AF and supraventricular arrhythmia burden were derived from the Zio® XT Patch. Multiple adjusted logistic, multinomial, and linear regression models were used to assess associations of excessive daytime sleepiness with AF, AF burden, and supraventricular arrhythmia burden.

RESULTS

Approximately 18% of the sample had excessive daytime sleepiness, and 8.5% had AF. After adjustment, excessive daytime sleepiness was not significantly associated with AF (odds ratio (OR), 1.20; Confidence Interval (CI), 0.81-1.75), continuous AF burden (OR, 1.36; CI, 0.85-2.16), or measures of supraventricular arrhythmia burden (SVE burden: β 0.01; 95% CI, -0.09-0.11; SVT burden: β 0.02; 95% CI, -0.04-0.08).

CONCLUSION

In this community-based sample of older adults, excessive daytime sleepiness was not associated with measures of arrhythmia burden. Future studies with objective measures of sleep are needed to further examine the role of sleep in the development and progression of arrhythmia burden.

Trends in Daily Use of Biotin Supplements Among US Adults, 1999-2016

This pharmacoepidemiology study uses NHANES data to characterize the prevalence and trends in use of high-dosage biotin supplementation among US adults between 1999 and 2016.

Circulating electrolytes and the prevalence of atrial fibrillation and supraventricular ectopy: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Evaluating associations of circulating electrolytes with atrial fibrillation (AF) and burden of supraventricular arrhythmias can give insights into arrhythmia pathogenesis.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 6398 participants of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, ages 71-90, with data on serum electrolytes (magnesium, calcium, potassium, phosphorus, chloride, sodium). Prevalence of AF was determined from electrocardiograms and history of AF hospitalizations. A subset of 317 participants also underwent electrocardiographic recordings for up to 14 days using the Zio® patch. Burden of other supraventricular arrhythmias [premature atrial contractions (PACs), supraventricular tachycardia] was determined with the Zio® patch. We used logistic and linear regression adjusting for potential confounders to determine associations of electrolytes with arrhythmia prevalence and burden. Among 6394 eligible participants, 614 (10%) had AF. Participants in the top quintiles of magnesium [odds ratio (OR) 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62, 1.08], potassium (OR 0.82, 95%CI 0.68, 1.00), and phosphorus (OR 0.73, 95%CI 0.59, 0.89) had lower AF prevalence compared to those in the bottom quintiles. No clear association was found for circulating chloride, calcium or sodium. Higher concentrations of circulating calcium were associated with lower prevalence of PACs in the 12-lead electrocardiogram, while higher concentrations of potassium, chloride and sodium were associated with higher PAC prevalence. Circulating electrolytes were not significantly associated with burden of PACs or supraventricular tachycardia among 317 participants with extended electrocardiographic monitoring.

CONCLUSION

Concentrations of circulating electrolytes present complex associations with selected supraventricular arrhythmias. Future studies should evaluate underlying mechanisms.

Effect of Magnesium Supplementation on Circulating Biomarkers of Cardiovascular Disease

(1) Background: Magnesium supplementation may be effective for the prevention of cardiometabolic diseases, but the mechanisms are unclear. Proteomic approaches can assist in identifying the underlying mechanisms. (2) Methods: We collected repeated blood samples from 52 individuals enrolled in a double-blind trial which randomized participants 1:1 to oral magnesium supplementation (400 mg magnesium/day in the form of magnesium oxide) or a matching placebo for 10 weeks. Plasma levels of 91 proteins were measured at baseline with follow-up samples using the Olink Cardiovascular Disease III proximity extension assay panel and were modeled as arbitrary units in a log₂ scale. We evaluated the effect of oral magnesium supplementation for changes in protein levels and the baseline association between serum magnesium and protein levels. The Holm procedure was used to adjust for multiple comparisons. (3) Results: Participants were 73% women, 94% white, and had a mean age of 62. Changes in proteins did not significantly differ between the two intervention groups after correction for multiple comparisons. The most statistically significant effects were on myoglobin [difference −0.319 log₂ units, 95% confidence interval (CI) (−0.550, −0.088), p = 0.008], tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase type 5 (−0.187, (−0.328, −0.045), p = 0.011), tumor necrosis factor ligand superfamily member 13B (−0.181, (−0.332, −0.031), p = 0.019), ST2 protein (−0.198, (−0.363, −0.032), p = 0.020), and interleukin-1 receptor type 1 (−0.144, (−0.273, −0.015), p = 0.029). Similarly, none of the associations of baseline serum magnesium with protein levels were significant after correction for multiple comparisons. (4) Conclusions: Although we did not identify statistically significant effects of oral magnesium supplementation in this relatively small study, this study demonstrates the value of proteomic approaches for the investigation of mechanisms underlying the beneficial effects of magnesium supplementation. Clinical Trials Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02837328.

Circulating Ionized Magnesium: Comparisons with Circulating Total Magnesium and the Response to Magnesium Supplementation in a Randomized Controlled Trial

Ionized Mg (iMg) is considered the biologically active fraction of circulating total Mg (tMg). It is possible that iMg may be a more physiologically relevant marker than tMg. Using data from a double-blind pilot randomized controlled trial, we tested (1) whether oral Mg supplementation will increase iMg concentrations compared with placebo and (2) the relationship between iMg and tMg at baseline. Additionally, we evaluated the agreement between iMg measured in fresh whole blood versus stored samples. A total of fifty-nine participants were randomized 1:1 to oral Mg supplementation (400 mg/day, Mg Oxide) or placebo for 10 weeks. Fasting blood samples were obtained at baseline and follow-up. The analysis used linear regression and an intent-to-treat approach. Participants were generally healthy, the mean age was 62, and 73% were female. The baseline iMg and tMg were modestly and positively associated (r = 0.50). The ratio of baseline iMg to tMg was 64%. The mean supplement effect on iMg was 0.03 mmol/L (95% CI:0.01, 0.05) for Mg supplementation versus placebo. The supplement effect on iMg was not statistically significantly different according to baseline iMg status (above/below median). Compared to fresh blood, iMg was consistently higher in refrigerated and frozen samples by 0.14 and 0.20 mmol/L, respectively. In this relatively healthy adult population, Mg supplementation over 10 weeks resulted in increased iMg concentrations. Whether iMg is a more appropriate measure of Mg status than tMg, and the public health or clinical utility of measuring iMg remains to be determined.

Serum magnesium and the incidence of coronary artery disease over a median 27 years of follow-up in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study and a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Low serum magnesium (Mg) concentrations have been associated with higher coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. A previous Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study article that evaluated the Mg-CAD association, based on 319 events occurring over 4-7 y, identified a sex-interaction whereby the inverse Mg-CAD association was much stronger among women than men. More than 1700 additional ARIC CAD events have since accrued.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to test our hypothesis that serum Mg is inversely and independently associated with long-term CAD risk in ARIC and in a meta-analysis with other prospective studies.

METHODS

A total of 14,446 ARIC study participants (baseline mean ± SD age: 54 ± 6 y, 57% women, 27% African American) were followed for incident CAD through 2017. CAD events were defined by myocardial infarction or CAD mortality. Serum Mg was modeled as quintiles based on mean visit 1 (1987-1989) and visit 2 (1990-1992) concentrations. Cox regression models were used. We also conducted a random-effects meta-analysis incorporating these contemporary ARIC findings.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 27 y, 2131 incident CAD cases accrued. Overall, low serum Mg was associated with higher CAD risk after adjustment for demographics, lifestyle factors, and other CAD risk factors than was higher serum Mg (HR Q1 compared with Q5: 1.28; 95% CI: 1.11, 1.47; P-linear trend <0.001). The association was stronger among women (HR Q1 compared with Q5: 1.53; 95% CI: 1.22, 1.92) than men (HR: 1.11; 95% CI: 0.92, 1.34) (P-interaction = 0.05). In the meta-analysis including 5 studies, the pooled RR (95% CI) for CAD in the lowest compared with the highest circulating Mg category was 1.18 (1.06, 1.31) (I2 = 22%, P-heterogeneity = 0.27).

CONCLUSIONS

In this large community-based cohort and updated meta-analysis, low circulating Mg was associated with higher CAD risk than was higher Mg. Whether increasing Mg concentrations within healthy limits is a useful strategy for CAD prevention remains to be seen.

Association of Abnormal P-Wave Indices With Dementia and Cognitive Decline Over 25 Years: ARIC-NCS (The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study)

Background Abnormal P-wave indices (PWIs)-reflecting underlying left atrial abnormality-are associated with increased risk of stroke independent of atrial fibrillation. We assessed whether abnormal PWIs are associated with incident dementia and greater cognitive decline, independent of atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke. Methods and Results We included 13 714 participants (mean age, 57±6 years; 56% women; 23% black) who were followed for dementia through the end of 2015. (Abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1, ≥4000 μV×ms), abnormal P-wave axis (>75° or <0°), prolonged P-wave duration (>120 ms), and advanced interatrial block were determined from ECGs at visits 2 to 4. Dementia was adjudicated by an expert panel using data from cognitive tests and hospitalization International Classification of Diseases codes. Cognitive function was measured longitudinally using 3 neuropsychological tests. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between time-dependent abnormal PWIs with incident dementia. Linear regression models were used to evaluate PWIs with cognitive function over time. At the conclusion of the study, 19%, 16%, 28%, and 1.9% of participants had abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1, abnormal P-wave axis, prolonged P-wave duration, and advanced interatrial block, respectively. During mean follow-up of 18 years, there were 1390 (10%) dementia cases. All abnormal PWIs except advanced interatrial block were associated with an increased risk of dementia even after adjustment for incident atrial fibrillation and stroke: multivariable hazard ratio of abnormal P wave terminal force in lead V1=1.60, 95% CI, 1.41 to 2.83; abnormal P-wave axis, hazard ratio =1.36, 95% CI, 1.17 to 2.57; prolonged P-wave duration, hazard ratio=1.60, 95% CI, 1.42 to 1.80. Only abnormal P-wave terminal force in lead V1 was associated with greater decline in global cognition. Conclusions Abnormal PWIs are independently associated with an increased risk of dementia. This novel finding should be replicated in other cohorts and the underlying mechanisms should be evaluated.