Lifetime Duration of Breastfeeding and Cardiovascular Risk in Women With Type 2 Diabetes or a History of Gestational Diabetes: Findings From Two Large Prospective Cohorts

OBJECTIVE

Breastfeeding duration is inversely associated with risks of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes in parous women. However, the association among women at high risk, including women with type 2 diabetes or gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is unclear.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We included 15,146 parous women with type 2 diabetes from the Nurses' Health Study I and II (NHS, NHS II) and 4,537 women with a history of GDM from NHS II. Participants reported history of breastfeeding via follow-up questionnaires. Incident CVD by 2017 comprised stroke or coronary heart disease (CHD) (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization). Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox models.

RESULTS

We documented 1,159 incident CVD cases among women with type 2 diabetes in both cohorts during 188,874 person-years of follow-up and 132 incident CVD cases among women with a GDM history during 100,218 person-years of follow-up. Longer lifetime duration of breastfeeding was significantly associated with lower CVD risk among women with type 2 diabetes, with pooled aHR of 0.68 (95% CI 0.54-0.85) for >18 months versus 0 months and 0.94 (0.91-0.98) per 6-month increment in breastfeeding. Similar associations were observed with CHD (pooled aHR 0.93 [0.88-0.97]) but not with stroke (0.96 [0.91-1.02]) per 6-month increment in breastfeeding. Among women with GDM history, >18 months versus 0 months of breastfeeding was associated with an aHR of 0.49 (0.28-0.86) for total CVD.

CONCLUSIONS

Longer duration of breastfeeding was associated with lower risk of CVD in women with type 2 diabetes or GDM.

Plasma metabolites of a healthy lifestyle in relation to mortality and longevity: Four prospective US cohort studies

BACKGROUND

A healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower premature mortality risk and with longer life expectancy. However, the metabolic pathways of a healthy lifestyle and how they relate to mortality and longevity are unclear. We aimed to identify and replicate a healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature and examine how it is related to total and cause-specific mortality risk and longevity.

METHODS

In four large cohorts with 13,056 individuals and 28-year follow-up, we assessed five healthy lifestyle factors, used liquid chromatography mass spectrometry to profile plasma metabolites, and ascertained deaths with death certificates. The unique healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature was identified using an elastic regression. Multivariable Cox regressions were used to assess associations of the signature with mortality and longevity.

FINDINGS

The identified healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature was reflective of lipid metabolism pathways. Shorter and more saturated triacylglycerol and diacylglycerol metabolite sets were inversely associated with the healthy lifestyle score, whereas cholesteryl ester and phosphatidylcholine plasmalogen sets were positively associated. Participants with a higher healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature had a 17% lower risk of all-cause mortality, 19% for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 17% for cancer mortality and were 25% more likely to reach longevity. The healthy lifestyle metabolomic signature explained 38% of the association between the self-reported healthy lifestyle score and total mortality risk and 49% of the association with longevity.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identifies a metabolomic signature that measures adherence to a healthy lifestyle and shows prediction of total and cause-specific mortality and longevity.

FUNDING

This work was funded by the NIH, CIHR, AHA, Novo Nordisk Foundation, and SciLifeLab.

Sugar-sweetened or artificially-sweetened beverage consumption, physical activity, and risk of cardiovascular disease in adults: a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Whether physical activity could mitigate the adverse impacts of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) or artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains uncertain.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the independent and joint associations between SSB or ASB consumption and physical activity and risk of CVD, defined as fatal and nonfatal coronary artery disease and stroke, in adults from 2 United States-based prospective cohort studies.

METHODS

Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs between SSB or ASB intake and physical activity with incident CVD among 65,730 females in the Nurses' Health Study (1980-2016) and 39,418 males in the Health Professional's Follow-up Study (1986-2016), who were free from chronic diseases at baseline. SSBs and ASBs were assessed every 4-y and physical activity biannually.

RESULTS

A total of 13,269 CVD events were ascertained during 3,001,213 person-years of follow-up. Compared with those who never/rarely consumed SSBs or ASBs, the HR for CVD for participants consuming ≥2 servings/d was 1.21 (95% CI: 1.12, 1.32; P-trend < 0.001) for SSBs and 1.03 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.09; P-trend = 0.06) for those consuming ≥2 servings/d of ASBs. The HR for CVD per 1 serving increment of SSB per day was 1.18 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.26) and 1.12 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.20) for participants meeting and not meeting physical activity guidelines (≥7.5 compared with <7.5 MET h/wk), respectively. Compared with participants who met physical activity guidelines and never/rarely consumed SSBs, the HR for CVD was 1.47 (95% CI: 1.37, 1.57) for participants not meeting physical activity guidelines and consuming ≥2 servings/wk of SSBs. No significant associations were observed for ASB when stratified by physical activity.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher SSB intake was associated with CVD risk regardless of physical activity levels. These results support current recommendations to limit the intake of SSBs even for physically active individuals.

Consumption of 100% Fruit Juice and Body Weight in Children and Adults: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Importance

Concerns have been raised that frequent consumption of 100% fruit juice may promote weight gain. Current evidence on fruit juice and weight gain has yielded mixed findings from both observational studies and clinical trials.

Objective

To synthesize the available evidence on 100% fruit juice consumption and body weight in children and adults.

Data Sources

MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched through May 18, 2023.

Study Selection

Prospective cohort studies of at least 6 months and randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of at least 2 weeks assessing the association of 100% fruit juice with body weight change in children and adults were included. In the trials, fruit juices were compared with noncaloric controls.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Data were pooled using random-effects models and presented as β coefficients with 95% CIs for cohort studies and mean differences (MDs) with 95% CIs for RCTs.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Change in body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) was assessed in children and change in body weight in adults.

Results

A total of 42 eligible studies were included in this analysis, including 17 among children (17 cohorts; 0 RCTs; 45 851 children; median [IQR] age, 8 [1-15] years) and 25 among adults (6 cohorts; 19 RCTs; 268 095 adults; median [IQR] age among cohort studies, 48 [41-61] years; median [IQR] age among RCTs, 42 [25-59]). Among cohort studies in children, each additional serving per day of 100% fruit juice was associated with a 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01-0.05) higher BMI change. Among cohort studies in adults, studies that did not adjust for energy showed greater body weight gain (0.21 kg; 95% CI, 0.15-0.27 kg) than studies that did adjust for energy intake (-0.08 kg; 95% CI, -0.11 to -0.05 kg; P for meta-regression <.001). RCTs in adults found no significant association of assignment to 100% fruit juice with body weight but the CI was wide (MD, -0.53 kg; 95% CI, -1.55 to 0.48 kg).

Conclusion and Relevance

Based on the available evidence from prospective cohort studies, in this systematic review and meta-analysis, 1 serving per day of 100% fruit juice was associated with BMI gain among children. Findings in adults found a significant association among studies unadjusted for total energy, suggesting potential mediation by calories. Further trials of 100% fruit juice and body weight are desirable. Our findings support guidance to limit consumption of fruit juice to prevent intake of excess calories and weight gain.

Precision stratification of prognostic risk factors associated with outcomes in gestational diabetes mellitus: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The objective of this systematic review is to identify prognostic factors among women and their offspring affected by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), focusing on endpoints of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) for women, and cardiometabolic profile for offspring.

METHODS

This review included studies published in English language from January 1st, 1990, through September 30th, 2021, that focused on the above outcomes of interest with respect to sociodemographic factors, lifestyle and behavioral characteristics, traditional clinical traits, and 'omics biomarkers in the mothers and offspring during the perinatal/postpartum periods and across the lifecourse. Studies that did not report associations of prognostic factors with outcomes of interest among GDM-exposed women or children were excluded.

RESULTS

Here, we identified 109 publications comprising 98 observational studies and 11 randomized-controlled trials. Findings indicate that GDM severity, maternal obesity, race/ethnicity, and unhealthy diet and physical activity levels predict T2D and CVD in women, and greater cardiometabolic risk in offspring. However, using the Diabetes Canada 2018 Clinical Practice Guidelines for studies, the level of evidence was low due to potential for confounding, reverse causation, and selection biases.

CONCLUSIONS

GDM pregnancies with greater severity, as well as those accompanied by maternal obesity, unhealthy diet, and low physical activity, as well as cases that occur among women who identify as racial/ethnic minorities are associated with worse cardiometabolic prognosis in mothers and offspring. However, given the low quality of evidence, prospective studies with detailed covariate data collection and high fidelity of follow-up are warranted.

Type 2 diabetes metabolomics score and risk of progression to type 2 diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

Several metabolites are individually related to incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. We prospectively evaluated a novel T2D-metabolite pattern with a risk of progression to T2D among high-risk women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

METHODS

The longitudinal Nurses' Health Study II cohort enroled 116,429 women in 1989 and collected blood samples from 1996 to 1999. We profiled plasma metabolites in 175 incident T2D cases and 175 age-matched controls, all with a history of GDM before the blood draw. We derived a metabolomics score from 21 metabolites previously associated with incident T2D in the published literature by scoring according to the participants' quintile (1-5 points) of each metabolite. We modelled the T2D metabolomics score categorically in quartiles and continuously per 1 standard deviation (SD) with the risk of incident T2D using conditional logistic regression models adjusting for body mass index at the blood draw, and other established T2D risk factors.

RESULTS

The percentage of women progressing to T2D ranged from 10% in the bottom T2D metabolomics score quartile to 78% in the highest score quartile. Adjusting for established T2D risk factors, women in the highest quartile had more than a 20-fold greater diabetes risk than women in the lowest quartile (odds ratios [OR] = 23.1 [95% CI = 8.6, 62.1]; p for trend<0.001). The continuous T2D metabolomics score was strongly and positively associated with incident T2D (adjusted OR = 2.7 per SD [95% CI = 1.9, 3.7], p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

A pattern of plasma metabolites among high-risk women is associated with a markedly elevated risk of progression to T2D later in life.

Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential (CHIP) and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Risk

OBJECTIVE

Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an aging-related accumulation of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells, leading to clonal expansion. CHIP presence has been implicated in atherosclerotic coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality, but its association with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unknown. We hypothesized that CHIP is associated with elevated risk of T2D.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

CHIP was derived from whole-genome sequencing of blood DNA in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) prospective cohorts. We performed analysis for 17,637 participants from six cohorts, without prior T2D, cardiovascular disease, or cancer. We evaluated baseline CHIP versus no CHIP prevalence with incident T2D, including associations with DNMT3A, TET2, ASXL1, JAK2, and TP53 variants. We estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs with adjustment for age, sex, BMI, smoking, alcohol, education, self-reported race/ethnicity, and combined cohorts' estimates via fixed-effects meta-analysis.

RESULTS

Mean (SD) age was 63.4 (11.5) years, 76% were female, and CHIP prevalence was 6.0% (n = 1,055) at baseline. T2D was diagnosed in n = 2,467 over mean follow-up of 9.8 years. Participants with CHIP had 23% (CI 1.04, 1.45) higher risk of T2D than those with no CHIP. Specifically, higher risk was for TET2 (HR 1.48; CI 1.05, 2.08) and ASXL1 (HR 1.76; CI 1.03, 2.99) mutations; DNMT3A was nonsignificant (HR 1.15; CI 0.93, 1.43). Statistical power was limited for JAK2 and TP53 analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

CHIP was associated with higher incidence of T2D. CHIP mutations located on genes implicated in CHD and mortality were also related to T2D, suggesting shared aging-related pathology.

A Primer on Systematic Review and Meta-analysis in Diabetes Research

A systematic review is a rigorous process that involves identifying, selecting, and synthesizing available evidence pertaining to an a priori-defined research question. The resulting evidence base may be summarized qualitatively or through a quantitative analytic approach known as meta-analysis. Systematic review and meta-analysis (SRMAs) have risen in popularity across the scientific realm including diabetes research. Although well-conducted SRMAs are an indispensable tool in informing evidence-based medicine, the proliferation of SRMAs has led to many reviews of questionable quality and misleading conclusions. The objective of this article is to provide up-to-date knowledge and a comprehensive understanding of strengths and limitations of SRMAs. We first provide an overview of the SRMA process and offer ways to identify common pitfalls at key steps. We then describe best practices as well as evolving approaches to mitigate biases, improve transparency, and enhance rigor. We discuss several recent developments in SRMAs including individual-level meta-analyses, network meta-analyses, umbrella reviews, and prospective meta-analyses. Additionally, we outline several strategies that can be used to enhance quality of SRMAs and present key questions that authors, editors, and readers should consider in preparing or critically reviewing SRMAs.

Treatment effect heterogeneity following type 2 diabetes treatment with GLP1-receptor agonists and SGLT2-inhibitors: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes requires the identification of clinical and biological features that are reproducibly associated with differences in clinical outcomes with specific anti-hyperglycaemic therapies. Robust evidence of such treatment effect heterogeneity could support more individualized clinical decisions on optimal type 2 diabetes therapy.

METHODS

We performed a pre-registered systematic review of meta-analysis studies, randomized control trials, and observational studies evaluating clinical and biological features associated with heterogenous treatment effects for SGLT2-inhibitor and GLP1-receptor agonist therapies, considering glycaemic, cardiovascular, and renal outcomes. After screening 5,686 studies, we included 101 studies of SGLT2-inhibitors and 75 studies of GLP1-receptor agonists in the final systematic review.

RESULTS

Here we show that the majority of included papers have methodological limitations precluding robust assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity. For SGLT2-inhibitors, multiple observational studies suggest lower renal function as a predictor of lesser glycaemic response, while markers of reduced insulin secretion predict lesser glycaemic response with GLP1-receptor agonists. For both therapies, multiple post-hoc analyses of randomized control trials (including trial meta-analysis) identify minimal clinically relevant treatment effect heterogeneity for cardiovascular and renal outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Current evidence on treatment effect heterogeneity for SGLT2-inhibitor and GLP1-receptor agonist therapies is limited, likely reflecting the methodological limitations of published studies. Robust and appropriately powered studies are required to understand type 2 diabetes treatment effect heterogeneity and evaluate the potential for precision medicine to inform future clinical care.

Impact of individual and environmental factors on dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent type 2 diabetes development: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The variability in the effectiveness of type 2 diabetes (T2D) preventive interventions highlights the potential to identify the factors that determine treatment responses and those that would benefit the most from a given intervention. We conducted a systematic review to synthesize the evidence to support whether sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and molecular factors modify the efficacy of dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent T2D.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases for studies reporting on the effect of a lifestyle, dietary pattern, or dietary supplement interventions on the incidence of T2D and reporting the results stratified by any effect modifier. We extracted relevant statistical findings and qualitatively synthesized the evidence for each modifier based on the direction of findings reported in available studies. We used the Diabetes Canada Clinical Practice Scale to assess the certainty of the evidence for a given effect modifier.

RESULTS

The 81 publications that met our criteria for inclusion are from 33 unique trials. The evidence is low to very low to attribute variability in intervention effectiveness to individual characteristics such as age, sex, BMI, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, baseline behavioral factors, or genetic predisposition.

CONCLUSIONS

We report evidence, albeit low certainty, that those with poorer health status, particularly those with prediabetes at baseline, tend to benefit more from T2D prevention strategies compared to healthier counterparts. Our synthesis highlights the need for purposefully designed clinical trials to inform whether individual factors influence the success of T2D prevention strategies.

Second international consensus report on gaps and opportunities for the clinical translation of precision diabetes medicine

Precision medicine is part of the logical evolution of contemporary evidence-based medicine that seeks to reduce errors and optimize outcomes when making medical decisions and health recommendations. Diabetes affects hundreds of millions of people worldwide, many of whom will develop life-threatening complications and die prematurely. Precision medicine can potentially address this enormous problem by accounting for heterogeneity in the etiology, clinical presentation and pathogenesis of common forms of diabetes and risks of complications. This second international consensus report on precision diabetes medicine summarizes the findings from a systematic evidence review across the key pillars of precision medicine (prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis) in four recognized forms of diabetes (monogenic, gestational, type 1, type 2). These reviews address key questions about the translation of precision medicine research into practice. Although not complete, owing to the vast literature on this topic, they revealed opportunities for the immediate or near-term clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine; furthermore, we expose important gaps in knowledge, focusing on the need to obtain new clinically relevant evidence. Gaps include the need for common standards for clinical readiness, including consideration of cost-effectiveness, health equity, predictive accuracy, liability and accessibility. Key milestones are outlined for the broad clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine.

Association between changes in carbohydrate intake and long term weight changes: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To comprehensively examine the associations between changes in carbohydrate intake and weight change at four year intervals.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Nurses' Health Study (1986-2010), Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2015), and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2014).

PARTICIPANTS

136 432 men and women aged 65 years or younger and free of diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, neurodegenerative disorders, gastric conditions, chronic kidney disease, and systemic lupus erythematosus before baseline.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Weight change within a four year period.

RESULTS

The final analyses included 46 722 women in the Nurses' Health Study, 67 186 women in the Nurses' Health Study II, and 22 524 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. On average, participants gained 1.5 kg (5th to 95th centile -6.8 to 10.0) every four years, amounting to 8.8 kg on average over 24 years. Among men and women, increases in glycemic index and glycemic load were positively associated with weight gain. For example, a 100 g/day increase in starch or added sugar was associated with 1.5 kg and 0.9 kg greater weight gain over four years, respectively, whereas a 10 g/day increase in fiber was associated with 0.8 kg less weight gain. Increased carbohydrate intake from whole grains (0.4 kg less weight gain per 100 g/day increase), fruit (1.6 kg less weight gain per 100 g/day increase), and non-starchy vegetables (3.0 kg less weight gain per 100 g/day increase) was inversely associated with weight gain, whereas increased intake from refined grains (0.8 kg more weight gain per 100 g/day increase) and starchy vegetables (peas, corn, and potatoes) (2.6 kg more weight gain per 100 g/day increase) was positively associated with weight gain. In substitution analyses, replacing refined grains, starchy vegetables, and sugar sweetened beverages with equal servings of whole grains, fruit, and non-starchy vegetables was associated with less weight gain. The magnitude of these associations was stronger among participants with overweight or obesity compared with those with normal weight (P<0.001 for interaction). Most of these associations were also stronger among women.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings of this study highlight the potential importance of carbohydrate quality and source for long term weight management, especially for people with excessive body weight. Limiting added sugar, sugar sweetened beverages, refined grains, and starchy vegetables in favor of whole grains, fruit, and non-starchy vegetables may support efforts to control weight.

Plasma metabolomic profiles associated with mortality and longevity in a prospective analysis of 13,512 individuals

Experimental studies reported biochemical actions underpinning aging processes and mortality, but the relevant metabolic alterations in humans are not well understood. Here we examine the associations of 243 plasma metabolites with mortality and longevity (attaining age 85 years) in 11,634 US (median follow-up of 22.6 years, with 4288 deaths) and 1878 Spanish participants (median follow-up of 14.5 years, with 525 deaths). We find that, higher levels of N2,N2-dimethylguanosine, pseudouridine, N4-acetylcytidine, 4-acetamidobutanoic acid, N1-acetylspermidine, and lipids with fewer double bonds are associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and reduced odds of longevity; whereas L-serine and lipids with more double bonds are associated with lower mortality risk and a higher likelihood of longevity. We further develop a multi-metabolite profile score that is associated with higher mortality risk. Our findings suggest that differences in levels of nucleosides, amino acids, and several lipid subclasses can predict mortality. The underlying mechanisms remain to be determined.

Sugar-Sweetened and Artificially Sweetened Beverages and Risk of Liver Cancer and Chronic Liver Disease Mortality

Importance

Approximately 65% of adults in the US consume sugar-sweetened beverages daily.

Objective

To study the associations between intake of sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and incidence of liver cancer and chronic liver disease mortality.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A prospective cohort with 98 786 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative from 1993 to 1998 at 40 clinical centers in the US and were followed up to March 1, 2020.

Exposures

Sugar-sweetened beverage intake was assessed based on a food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline and defined as the sum of regular soft drinks and fruit drinks (not including fruit juice); artificially sweetened beverage intake was measured at 3-year follow-up.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcomes were (1) liver cancer incidence, and (2) mortality due to chronic liver disease, defined as death from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, alcoholic liver diseases, and chronic hepatitis. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for liver cancer incidence and for chronic liver disease mortality, adjusting for potential confounders including demographics and lifestyle factors.

Results

During a median follow-up of 20.9 years, 207 women developed liver cancer and 148 died from chronic liver disease. At baseline, 6.8% of women consumed 1 or more sugar-sweetened beverage servings per day, and 13.1% consumed 1 or more artificially sweetened beverage servings per day at 3-year follow-up. Compared with intake of 3 or fewer servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per month, those who consumed 1 or more servings per day had a significantly higher risk of liver cancer (18.0 vs 10.3 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .02]; adjusted HR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.16-2.96]; P = .01) and chronic liver disease mortality (17.7 vs 7.1 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend <.001]; adjusted HR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.03-2.75]; P = .04). Compared with intake of 3 or fewer artificially sweetened beverages per month, individuals who consumed 1 or more artificially sweetened beverages per day did not have significantly increased incidence of liver cancer (11.8 vs 10.2 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .70]; adjusted HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.70-1.94]; P = .55) or chronic liver disease mortality (7.1 vs 5.3 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .32]; adjusted HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.49-1.84]; P = .88).

Conclusions and Relevance

In postmenopausal women, compared with consuming 3 or fewer servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per month, those who consumed 1 or more sugar-sweetened beverages per day had a higher incidence of liver cancer and death from chronic liver disease. Future studies should confirm these findings and identify the biological pathways of these associations.

Integrating genetics and metabolomics from multi-ethnic and multi-fluid data reveals putative mechanisms for age-related macular degeneration

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of blindness in older adults. Investigating shared genetic components between metabolites and AMD can enhance our understanding of its pathogenesis. We conduct metabolite genome-wide association studies (mGWASs) using multi-ethnic genetic and metabolomic data from up to 28,000 participants. With bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis involving 16,144 advanced AMD cases and 17,832 controls, we identify 108 putatively causal relationships between plasma metabolites and advanced AMD. These metabolites are enriched in glycerophospholipid metabolism, lysophospholipid, triradylcglycerol, and long chain polyunsaturated fatty acid pathways. Bayesian genetic colocalization analysis and a customized metabolome-wide association approach prioritize putative causal AMD-associated metabolites. We find limited evidence linking urine metabolites to AMD risk. Our study emphasizes the contribution of plasma metabolites, particularly lipid-related pathways and genes, to AMD risk and uncovers numerous putative causal associations between metabolites and AMD risk.

Role of sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and molecular factors in precision prevention of type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

The variability in the effectiveness of type 2 diabetes (T2D) preventive interventions highlights the potential to identify the factors that determine treatment responses and those that would benefit the most from a given intervention. We conducted a systematic review to synthesize the evidence to support whether sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and molecular characteristics modify the efficacy of dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent T2D. Among the 80 publications that met our criteria for inclusion, the evidence was low to very low to attribute variability in intervention effectiveness to individual characteristics such as age, sex, BMI, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, baseline behavioral factors, or genetic predisposition. We found evidence, albeit low certainty, to support conclusions that those with poorer health status, particularly those with prediabetes at baseline, tend to benefit more from T2D prevention strategies compared to healthier counterparts. Our synthesis highlights the need for purposefully designed clinical trials to inform whether individual factors influence the success of T2D prevention strategies.

Sugar- or artificially-sweetened beverage consumption, physical activity, and risk of cardiovascular disease in US adults

Background

The extent to which physical activity attenuates the detrimental effects of sugar (SSBs)- or artificially-sweetened beverages (ASBs) on the risk of cardiovascular disease is unknown.

Methods

We used Cox proportional-hazards models to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence interval [HR (CI)] between SSB or ASB intake and physical activity with cardiovascular disease risk among 65,730 women in the Nurses' Health Study (1980-2016) and 39,418 men in the Health Professional's Follow-up Study (1986-2016), who were free from chronic diseases at baseline. SSBs and ASBs were assessed every 4-years and physical activity biannually.

Results

A total of 13,269 cardiovascular events were ascertained during 3,001,213 person-years of follow-up. Compared with those that never/rarely consumed SSBs or ASBs, HR and 95% CI for cardiovascular disease for participants consuming ≥2 servings/day were 1.21 (95% CI,1.12 to 1.32; P-trend<0.001) and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.97 to 1.09; P-trend=0.06), respectively. In the joint analyses, for participants meeting and not meeting physical activity guidelines (<7.5 vs ≥7.5 MET-h/week) as well as consuming ≥2 servings/day of SSBs or ASBs, the HRs for cardiovascular disease were 1.15 (95% CI, 1.08 to 1.23) and 0.96 (95% CI, 0.91 to 1.02), and 1.47 (95% CI, 1.37 to 1.57) and 1.29 (95% CI, 1.22 to 1.37) respectively, compared with participants who met physical activity guidelines and never/rarely consumed these beverages. Similar patterns were observed when coronary heart disease and stroke were analyzed.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that among physically active participants, higher SSB intake, but not ASBs, is associated with a higher cardiovascular risk. Our results support current recommendations to limit the intake of SSB and maintain adequate physical activity levels.

Precision medicine in type 2 diabetes: A systematic review of treatment effect heterogeneity for GLP1-receptor agonists and SGLT2-inhibitors

Background

A precision medicine approach in type 2 diabetes requires identification of clinical and biological features that are reproducibly associated with differences in clinical outcomes with specific anti-hyperglycaemic therapies. Robust evidence of such treatment effect heterogeneity could support more individualized clinical decisions on optimal type 2 diabetes therapy.

Methods

We performed a pre-registered systematic review of meta-analysis studies, randomized control trials, and observational studies evaluating clinical and biological features associated with heterogenous treatment effects for SGLT2-inhibitor and GLP1-receptor agonist therapies, considering glycaemic, cardiovascular, and renal outcomes.

Results

After screening 5,686 studies, we included 101 studies of SGLT2-inhibitors and 75 studies of GLP1-receptor agonists in the final systematic review. The majority of papers had methodological limitations precluding robust assessment of treatment effect heterogeneity. For glycaemic outcomes, most cohorts were observational, with multiple analyses identifying lower renal function as a predictor of lesser glycaemic response with SGLT2-inhibitors and markers of reduced insulin secretion as predictors of lesser response with GLP1-receptor agonists. For cardiovascular and renal outcomes, the majority of included studies were post-hoc analyses of randomized control trials (including meta-analysis studies) which identified limited clinically relevant treatment effect heterogeneity.

Conclusions

Current evidence on treatment effect heterogeneity for SGLT2-inhibitor and GLP1-receptor agonist therapies is limited, likely reflecting the methodological limitations of published studies. Robust and appropriately powered studies are required to understand type 2 diabetes treatment effect heterogeneity and evaluate the potential for precision medicine to inform future clinical care.

Plain language summary

This review identifies research that helps understand which clinical and biological factors that are associated with different outcomes for specific type 2 diabetes treatments. This information could help clinical providers and patients make better informed personalized decisions about type 2 diabetes treatments. We focused on two common type 2 diabetes treatments: SGLT2-inhibitors and GLP1-receptor agonists, and three outcomes: blood glucose control, heart disease, and kidney disease. We identified some potential factors that are likely to lessen blood glucose control including lower kidney function for SGLT2-inhibitors and lower insulin secretion for GLP1-receptor agonists. We did not identify clear factors that alter heart and renal disease outcomes for either treatment. Most of the studies had limitations, meaning more research is needed to fully understand the factors that influence treatment outcomes in type 2 diabetes.

Predictors and risk factors of short-term and long-term outcomes among women with gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and their offspring: Moving toward precision prognosis?

As part of the American Diabetes Association Precision Medicine in Diabetes Initiative (PMDI) - a partnership with the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) - this systematic review is part of a comprehensive evidence evaluation in support of the 2 ^nd International Consensus Report on Precision Diabetes Medicine. Here, we sought to synthesize evidence from empirical research papers published through September 1 ^st , 2021 to evaluate and identify prognostic conditions, risk factors, and biomarkers among women and children affected by gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), focusing on clinical endpoints of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) among women with a history of GDM; and adiposity and cardiometabolic profile among offspring exposed to GDM in utero. We identified a total of 107 observational studies and 12 randomized controlled trials testing the effect of pharmaceutical and/or lifestyle interventions. Broadly, current literature indicates that greater GDM severity, higher maternal body mass index, belonging to racial/ethnic minority group; and unhealthy lifestyle behaviors would predict a woman's risk of incident T2D and CVD, and an unfavorable cardiometabolic profile among offspring. However, the level of evidence is low (Level 4 according to the Diabetes Canada 2018 Clinical Practice Guidelines for diabetes prognosis) largely because most studies leveraged retrospective data from large registries that are vulnerable to residual confounding and reverse causation bias; and prospective cohort studies that may suffer selection and attrition bias. Moreover, for the offspring outcomes, we identified a relatively small body of literature on prognostic factors indicative of future adiposity and cardiometabolic risk. Future high-quality prospective cohort studies in diverse populations with granular data collection on prognostic factors, clinical and subclinical outcomes, high fidelity of follow-up, and appropriate analytical approaches to deal with structural biases are warranted.

Missing the forest-plot for the trees

Systematic reviews and meta-analyses are methods increasingly used in biomedical research since their introduction in the 1970s. They serve to replace other non-systematic and cherry-picked narrative reviews, which are highly variable in their approach, structure and content. Their increase in popularity parallels the increase in overall scientific output, and when properly conducted, systematic reviews can contribute highly impactful summaries of a fast-growing evidence base. Meta-analyses offer statistical summaries, called forest plots, which similarly provide a powerful synopsis unachievable by individual studies. Thus, it is not difficult to imagine why systematic reviews are published more often. Should scientists be concerned by the accelerated output of research, from systematic reviews or other? If quantity comes at the expense of quality, then yes, of course; but should important manuscripts be rationed out otherwise? A new scientific technique can seem scary at first, especially to the researcher who is unfamiliar with its application or uncertain of its validity. In that case, we should become familiar with new and popular methods, and understand their strengths and limitations. There is a rightful place for systematic reviews and meta-analyses among respectable research tools. Importantly, however, despite standard operating procedures and best practices, the quality of systematic reviews today is highly variable, warranting serious concerns for quantity exceeding quality. Therefore, the appropriate response should be to instil researchers with an appreciation for the complexity of conducting and interpreting a systematic review and meta-analysis, to create more knowledgeable authors, reviewers and editors, who collectively will improve, rather than dismiss, these important scientific contributions.

Effects of non-nutritive sweeteners on the BMI of children and adolescents: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials and prospective cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Considering the biological variation across subgroups during periods of growth, the role of non-nutritive sweeteners in weight-related outcomes among children and adolescents is unclear. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to summarise the evidence on experimental and habitual consumption of non-nutritive sweeteners and prospective changes in BMI in paediatric populations.

METHODS

We searched eligible (ie, lasting a minimum of 4 weeks) randomised controlled trials of the effect of non-nutritive sweeteners versus non-caloric or caloric comparators on BMI change and prospective cohort studies reporting multivariable-adjusted coefficients for non-nutritive sweetener intake and BMI in children (aged 2-9 years) and adolescents (aged 10-24 years). We generated pooled estimates using random effects meta-analysis and did secondary stratified analyses to explore heterogeneity by study-level and subgroup characteristics. We further evaluated the quality of the included evidence and classified industry-funded studies, or those whose authors were related to the food industry, as having potential conflicts of interest.

FINDINGS

From 2789 results, we included five randomised controlled trials (n=1498 participants; median follow-up 19·0 weeks [IQR 13·0-37·5]); three [60%] with potential conflicts of interest), and eight prospective cohort studies (n=35 340 participants; median follow-up 2·5 years [IQR 1·7-6·3]; two [25%] with potential conflicts of interest). Random allocation to intake of non-nutritive sweeteners (25-2400 mg/day, from food and beverages) suggested less BMI gain (standardised mean difference -0·42 kg/m² [95% CI -0·79 to -0·06]; I²=89%) compared with intake of sugar from food and beverages. Stratified estimates were significant only in adolescents, participants with obesity at baseline, consumers of a mixture of non-nutritive sweeteners, longer trials, and trials not found to have potential conflicts of interest. No randomised controlled trials tested beverages containing non-nutritive sweeteners versus water. Prospective cohorts reported a non-significant association between consumption of beverages containing non-nutritive sweeteners and BMI gain (0·05 kg/m² [95% CI -0·02 to 0·12]; I²=67%; per daily serving of 355 mL), which was accentuated for adolescents, boys, and cohorts with longer follow-ups. Removing studies with potential conflicts of interest attenuated the estimates. Evidence was predominantly classified as of low to moderate quality.

INTERPRETATION

Intake of non-nutritive sweeteners versus sugar in randomised controlled trials resulted in less BMI gain in adolescents and participants with obesity. Better designed studies should contrast beverages containing non-nutritive sweeteners with water. Long-term prospective analyses with changes in repeated measures might clarify the effect of intake of non-nutritive sweeteners on BMI changes in childhood and adolescence.

FUNDING

None.

Abstract P152: Joint Association of Sugar- and Artificially-Sweetened Beverage Consumption and Physical Activity and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in US Adults

Background: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) or artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) and physical activity are independently associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk; however, it is unknown whether there is an interaction of SSB/ASB intake and physical activity on risk of T2D.

Methods: We examined the independent and joint associations between habitual SSB/ASB intake and physical activity with incident T2D risk among 196,101 women and men from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1980-2016), NHSII (1991-2017), and Health Professional’s Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986-2016), who were free from chronic diseases at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR; CI), adjusting for demographic and lifestyle T2D risk factors.

Results: There were 20,430 incident T2D cases over follow-up of 36, 26, and 30 years in NHS, NHSII, and HPFS, respectively. In multivariable-adjusted models, we confirmed that participants with higher SSBs, ASBs and lower physical activity were independently at higher T2D risk, compared to lower intakes and higher activity levels. In joint analyses for these exposures, participants who did not meet physical activity guidelines and consumed gt 2 servings/day of SSBs had a significantly higher risk of T2D than those who met physical activity guidelines and never/rarely consumed SSBs (1.51; 1.43, 1.60); we observed similar findings for ASBs: 1.29; 1.23, 1.36). Among participants who met physical activity guidelines, those who consumed gt 2 servings/day of SSBs had a HR of 1.23 (1.16, 1.30); the HR for ASBs was 1.07 (1.02, 1.13). Consistent results were observed for women and men.

Conclusions: Long-term habitual intake of SSBs or ASBs combined with lower physical activity was associated with higher risk of T2D in three large prospective cohort studies. These findings suggest that even when individuals are physically active, higher consumption of SSBs is associated with a higher risk of T2D. Our results support recommendations and policies to limit the intake of SSB and increase physical activity levels.

Abstract MP22: Plasma Metabolomic Profiles Associated With Mortality and Longevity in a Prospective Study of 13,401 Individuals

Background: Recent advances in metabolomic studies have shown promise in elucidating the biological pathways underpinning aging processes and mortality in animal models, but data in humans are lacking. We aimed to evaluate the associations between metabolite profiles, all-cause and cause-specific mortality, and longevity.

Methods: Within three prospective cohorts (Nurses’ Health Study [NHS], NHSII, and Health Professional’s Follow-up Study), we measured plasma metabolites from 11,523 participants (mean age 54 years, 86% female) using high-throughput liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Participants were free of cardiovascular disease and cancer at blood collection. Metabolome-wide association analyses were conducted for all-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression and longevity (attaining 85 years of age) using logistic regression. Both pre-defined and data-driven metabolite groups were also evaluated. We further developed a multi-metabolite profile score for all-cause mortality using an elastic-net regularized Cox model and assessed its associations with mortality and longevity. Results for all-cause mortality were replicated among 1878 participants (mean age 67 years, 58% female) from the PREDIMED trial.

Results: We documented 4252 deaths (including 864 cardiovascular deaths and 1070 cancer deaths) and 3048 achieving longevity over a median follow-up of 22.6 years in the NHS/NHSII/HPFS, and 126 deaths during a follow-up of 4.7 years in the PREDIMED. Higher levels of three nucleosides (N2,N2-dimethylguanosine, pseudouridine, and N4-acetylcytidine), 4-acetamidobutanoic acid, triacylglycerols with ≤56 carbons and ≤3 double bonds, and several other lipids were associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and corresponding decreased likelihood of longevity; whereas L-serine, L-glutamine, and TAGs with >56 carbons or >3 double bonds were associated with lower mortality risk and higher odds of achieving longevity. A multi-metabolite profile score comprising 73 metabolites was positively associated with all-cause (HR per 1-SD increment=1.25 [95% CI: 1.21, 1.30] in NHS/NHSII/HPFS and 1.47 [95% CI: 1.22, 1.78] in PREDIMED), cardiovascular (HR=1.34 [95% CI:1.24, 1.45]), and cancer mortality (HR=1.15 [95% CI:1.08, 1.24]) and inversely associated with longevity (OR=0.79 [95% CI: 0.74, 0.86]).

Conclusions: We identified multiple metabolites associated with mortality and longevity. Our findings provide insights into the biological pathways that lead to death and open up new avenues to incorporate these metabolomic markers in clinical and research settings.

Abstract P606: Effectiveness of Randomized Dietary Interventions for the Primary Prevention of Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Type 2 Diabetes

Objective: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) provide opportunities to estimate the causal effects of interventions on disease risk; however, large-scale, long-term RCTs of diet for the prevention of major chronic disease endpoints are sparse. We sought to summarize RCTs comparing the effectiveness of dietary interventions for the primary prevention of clinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in adults.

Methods: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis (PROSPERO #CRD42021283728) of RCTs exclusively with dietary interventions with outcomes of incident primary CVD events and/or T2D among adults. We searched MEDLINE and other databases and references. Eligible interventions included those providing instruction, education, and/or provisions to modify intakes of nutrients, foods, or overall dietary patterns. We excluded meal replacement products, dietary supplements, interventions with concomitant comprehensive lifestyle programs, exercise regimens, etc., trials in secondary prevention populations, and trials assessing risk factor or biomarker changes only, rather than clinical events. Two investigators performed screening and data extraction in parallel. We conducted a random effects meta-analysis to estimate the pooled effectiveness of dietary interventions compared with usual diet or low-fat control groups for CVD and T2D outcomes, separately.

Results: Among the 5365 citations generated in our searches, we identified 4 eligible RCTs, representing 56,721 participants with mean ages ranging from 44.7 to 67.9 years. Mean intervention duration was 2.3 to 8.1 years, resulting in 3,151 CVD events and 3,603 T2D cases. Compared with the control diets, the various healthy dietary patterns were related to a combined 7% (relative risk [RR] = 0.93, confidence interval [CI] = 0.87-1.00) lower CVD risk and 8% (RR = 0.92, CI = 0.86-0.98) lower T2D risk.

Conclusion: Despite major morbidity and mortality from CVD and T2D, there have been few large, population-based, long-term RCTs assessing the exclusive effectiveness of dietary modification for the primary prevention of clinical CVD events or T2D. Results, however, indicate that various healthy diets may be modestly effective for primary prevention.

Abstract P203: Healthy Lifestyle Plasma Metabolite Profile and Risk of Mortality in US Prospective Cohort Studies

Background: A healthy lifestyle is associated with a lower risk of premature death. Metabolic pathways of a healthy lifestyle and their association with mortality remain to be understood. This study aimed to identify the metabolomic profile of a healthy lifestyle score and examine its prospective association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality, including death from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer.

Methods: The population included 12,146 participants from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS), NHS II and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (HPFS)(83% women, 97% white, aged 55±9y). Plasma metabolites were profiled using high-throughput liquid chromatography mass-spectrometry at baseline (NHS:1989-1990; NHSII:1996-1999; HPFS:1993-1995). The healthy lifestyle score was computed by summing the total number of healthy lifestyle factors participants adhered to from validated questionnaires at baseline: healthy diet (Alternative Healthy Eating Index, upper 40%), moderate alcohol intake (women: 5-15 g/d; men: 5-30 g/d), moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (≥30min/d), never smoking and normal BMI (18.5-24.9kg/m 2 ). Deaths were ascertained with death certificates and medical records. The metabolite profile was identified using elastic net regressions with train test validation split (70-30%). Metabolic pathways were determined using Metabolite Set Enrichment Analysis (MSEA). Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR[CI]) per unit of score of the healthy lifestyle metabolite profile with mortality risk.

Results: The identified profile included 88 metabolites and correlated with the healthy lifestyle score (Pearson r=0.43-0.44; p<0.001). Triglyceride and diglyceride metabolite sets were inversely associated with the healthy lifestyle score, whereas cholesteryl ester and phosphatidylcholine plasmalogen sets were directly associated (p<0.001). Among individual lifestyle factors, the profile was most strongly correlated with normal BMI (r pb =0.43; p<0.001). Over 32y of follow-up, there were 3,851 deaths, including 749 deaths from CVD and 994 from cancer. Participants with a higher healthy lifestyle metabolite profile score had lower risk of all-cause (HR=0.79[0.73, 0.85]) and CVD mortality (HR=0.77[0.58, 0.95]), but not cancer (HR=0.91[0.77, 1.05]). Significant associations persisted after further adjustment for the healthy lifestyle score.

Conclusions: In US adults, we identified a metabolite profile related to a healthy lifestyle largely reflecting lipid metabolism pathways. A higher metabolite score was associated with lower subsequent all-cause mortality risk, specifically from CVD. Findings provide novel insights into potential metabolic pathways underlying the association between a healthy lifestyle and lower premature mortality.

Abstract P324: Female Reproductive Factors and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Among Women With a History of Gestational Diabetes

Introduction: The link between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established; however, risk factors underlying the progression of disease remain uncertain.

Hypothesis: Female reproductive factors including ages at menarche, menopause, and first birth, number of live births, and surgically-induced menopause (uni- or bilateral oophorectomy or hysterectomy) are associated with higher risk of progression, while breastfeeding is associated with lower risk of progression from GDM to T2D/CVD.

Methods: Participants in the Nurses’ Health Study II reported reproductive history at cohort baseline and over follow-up, including 5346 women with a history of GDM. Self-reported incident T2D or CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization or stroke) were confirmed via questionnaire or medical records. We estimated the hazard ratios (HR [95%]) across quintiles of each reproductive factor with incident T2D and CVD using Cox models adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, smoking, BMI at 18 years, physical activity, family history of T2D or CVD, alcohol intake, menopausal status, aspirin use, and Alternate Healthy Eating Index.

Results: We documented 988 incident T2D and 149 CVD cases over 25 years of follow-up. In adjusted models, higher total lactation duration was associated with lower risk of T2D (5 categories: 0, 1-6, 7-12, 13-24, >24 months, p for trend=0.01; highest vs. lowest category: HR 0.77 [95%CI: 0.60, 0.98]) and CVD (p for trend=0.03, HR 0.39 [95%CI: 0.19, 0.80]). Early age at menarche was linearly associated with higher risk of T2D (5 categories: ≤11, 12, 13, 14, >14 y: p for trend <0.0001), lowest (≤11 y) vs. reference (13 y) category: HR 1.28 [95%CI: 1.06, 1.53], while no trend could be observed for CVD outcomes (p for trend=0.48). Higher age at 1 st birth was associated with lower CVD risk (5 categories: <23, 23-25 [reference], 26-29, 30-34, ≥35 y, p for trend=0.001; highest vs reference category: HR 0.17 [95%CI: 0.05, 0.57]), but not T2D). Compared with natural menopause, surgically induced menopause was associated with higher T2D risk: 1.32 (1.00, 1.73). Number of live births and age at menopause were not associated with T2D or CVD among women with GDM history.

Conclusions: Breastfeeding was associated with lower T2D and CVD risks among women with GDM history, suggesting some shared risk factors or etiologies across reproductive lifespan and long-term cardiometabolic health. Ages at menarche and 1 st birth showed differential associations with T2D and CVD.

Abstract 66: Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Risk

Introduction: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an aging-related accumulation of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells, leading to clonal expansion. CHIP presence has been implicated in elevated risks for coronary heart disease (CHD) and death, but its association with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unknown.

Hypothesis: We hypothesized that CHIP is associated with elevated risk of incident T2D.

Methods: CHIP was derived from whole genome sequencing of blood DNA in NHLBI Trans-omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) cohorts. We analyzed 17,637 participants without prior T2D, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at blood draw, with prospective follow-up for incident T2D. We evaluated baseline prevalence of CHIP vs. no CHIP with incident T2D risk using Cox regression. We also investigated CHIP variants previously related to CHD: DNMT3A , TET2 , ASXL1 , JAK2 , and TP53 . We estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR [CI]) adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, alcohol, and education. We combined cohort estimates via fixed effects meta-analysis.

Results: On average, participants were age 63.4 years (SD=11.5) and 76% female. Prevalence of CHIP was 6.0% (1,055) at baseline. There were 2,467 incident T2D cases over mean=9.8 years follow-up. Compared to those without a mutation, having CHIP was associated with a 23% higher T2D risk, both overall (combined HR=1.23; 95% CI=1.04, 1.45), and among those with CHD-related CHIP mutations (87% of total CHIP): HR=1.23 (1.03, 1.46). Although those with CHIP mutations of TET2 (HR=1.48; 1.05, 2.08) and ASXL1 (HR=1.76; 1.03, 2.99) had larger elevations in T2D risk, and DNMT3A was suggestive of increased T2D risk (HR=1.15; 0.93, 1.43), statistical power was limited for JAK2 and TP53 mutation analyses.

Conclusions: CHIP was associated with higher incidence of T2D. CHIP mutations located on loci previously implicated in aging and CHD were also related to T2D, suggesting shared pathology of atherosclerosis and T2D.

Investigating gene-diet interactions impacting the association between macronutrient intake and glycemic traits

Few studies have demonstrated reproducible gene-diet interactions (GDIs) impacting metabolic disease risk factors, likely due in part to measurement error in dietary intake estimation and insufficient capture of rare genetic variation. We aimed to identify GDIs across the genetic frequency spectrum impacting the macronutrient-glycemia relationship in genetically and culturally diverse cohorts. We analyzed N=33,187 diabetes-free participants from 10 NHLBI Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program cohorts with whole-genome sequencing, self-reported diet, and glycemic trait data. We fit cohort-specific, multivariable-adjusted linear mixed models for the effect of diet, modeled as an isocaloric substitution of carbohydrate for fat, and its interactions with common and rare variants genome-wide. In main effect meta-analyses, participants consuming more carbohydrate had modestly lower glycemic trait values (e.g. for hemoglobin A1c [HbA1c], -0.013 %HbA1c per 250 kcal substitution). In GDI meta-analyses, a common African ancestry-enriched variant (rs79762542) reached study-wide significance and replicated in the UK Biobank cohort, indicating a negative carbohydrate-HbA1c association among major allele homozygotes only. Simulations revealed that over 150,000 samples may be necessary to identify similar macronutrient GDIs under realistic assumptions about effect size and measurement error. These results generate hypotheses for further exploration of modifiable metabolic disease risk in additional cohorts with African ancestry.

Association of Body Weight With Response to Vitamin D Supplementation and Metabolism

IMPORTANCE

In the Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial (VITAL), the effects of randomized vitamin D supplementation (cholecalciferol), 2000 IU/d, reduced the risk of several health outcomes among participants with normal, but not elevated, body weights. It was unclear whether weight had any association with the outcomes of the supplementation.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate whether baseline body mass index (BMI) modifies vitamin D metabolism and response to supplementation.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

VITAL is a completed randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial for the primary prevention of cancer and cardiovascular disease. In the present cohort study, an analysis was conducted in a subset of VITAL participants who provided a blood sample at baseline and a subset with a repeated sample at 2 years' follow-up. VITAL was conducted from July 1, 2010, to November 10, 2018; data analysis for the present study was conducted from August 1, 2021, to November 9, 2021.

INTERVENTIONS

Treatment outcomes of vitamin D, 2000 IU/d, supplementation vs placebo associated with clinical and novel vitamin D-related biomarkers by BMI category adjusted for other factors associated with vitamin D status.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Multivariable-adjusted means (SE) or 95% CIs of vitamin D-related serum biomarkers at baseline and follow-up: total 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD), 25-OHD3, free vitamin D (FVD), bioavailable vitamin D (BioD), vitamin D-binding protein (VDBP), albumin, parathyroid hormone (PTH), and calcium, and log-transformed as needed.

RESULTS

A total of 16 515 participants (mean [SD] age, 67.7 [7.0] years; 8371 women [50.7%]; 12420 non-Hispanic White [76.9%]) were analyzed at baseline, including 2742 with a follow-up blood sample. Before randomization, serum total 25-OHD levels were incrementally lower at higher BMI categories (adjusted mean [SE]: underweight, 32.3 [0.7] ng/mL; normal weight, 32.3 [0.1] ng/mL; overweight, 30.5 [0.1] ng/mL; obesity class I, 29.0 [0.2] ng/mL; and obesity class II, 28.0 [0.2] ng/mL; P < .001 for linear trend). Similarly, baseline 25-OHD3, FVD, BioD, VDBP, albumin, and calcium levels were lower with higher BMI, while PTH level was higher (all P < .001 for linear trend). Compared with placebo, randomization to vitamin D supplementation was associated with an increase in total 25-OHD, 25-OHD3, FVD, and BioD levels compared with placebo at 2 years' follow-up, but increases were significantly lower at higher BMI categories (all treatment effect interactions P < .001). Supplementation did not substantially change VDBP, albumin, PTH, or calcium levels.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this randomized cohort study, vitamin D supplementation increased serum vitamin D-related biomarkers, with a blunted response observed for participants with overweight or obesity at baseline. These longitudinal findings suggest that BMI may be associated with modified response to vitamin D supplementation and may in part explain the observed diminished outcomes of supplementation for various health outcomes among individuals with higher BMI.

Sugar-sweetened beverage consumption and weight gain in children and adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND

Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been implicated in fueling the obesity epidemic.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to update a synthesis of the evidence on SSBs and weight gain in children and adults.

METHODS

MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched through September 8, 2022, for prospective cohort studies and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated intake of SSBs in relation to BMI and body weight in children and adults, respectively. Eligible interventions were compared against a noncaloric control. Study-level estimates were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis and presented as β-coefficients with 95% CIs for cohorts and weighted mean differences (MDs) with 95% CIs for RCTs.

RESULTS

We identified 85 articles including 48 in children (40 cohorts, n = 91,713; 8 RCTs, n = 2783) and 37 in adults (21 cohorts, n = 448,661; 16 RCTs, n = 1343). Among cohort studies, each serving/day increase in SSB intake was associated with a 0.07-kg/m² (95% CI: 0.04 kg/m², 0.10 kg/m²) higher BMI in children and a 0.42-kg (95% CI: 0.26 kg, 0.58 kg) higher body weight in adults. RCTs in children indicated less BMI gain with SSB reduction interventions compared with control (MD: -0.21 kg/m²; 95% CI: -0.40 kg/m², -0.01 kg/m²). In adults, randomization to addition of SSBs to the diet led to greater body weight gain (MD: 0.83 kg; 95% CI: 0.47 kg, 1.19 kg), and subtraction of SSBs led to weight loss (MD: -0.49 kg; 95% CI: -0.66 kg, -0.32 kg) compared with the control groups. A positive linear dose-response association between SSB consumption and weight gain was found in all outcomes assessed.

CONCLUSIONS

Our updated systematic review and meta-analysis expands on prior evidence to confirm that SSB consumption promotes higher BMI and body weight in both children and adults, underscoring the importance of dietary guidance and public policy strategies to limit intake. This meta-analysis was registered at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews as CRD42020209915.

Habitual coffee consumption and subsequent risk of type 2 diabetes in individuals with a history of gestational diabetes - a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Females with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) are at higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) later in life.

OBJECTIVE

This study prospectively examined whether greater habitual coffee consumption was related to a lower risk of T2D among females with a history of GDM.

METHODS

We followed 4522 participants with a history of GDM in the NHS II for incident T2D between 1991 and 2017. Demographic, lifestyle factors including diet, and disease outcomes were updated every 2-4 y. Participants reported consumption of caffeinated and decaffeinated coffee on validated FFQs. Fasting blood samples were collected in 2012-2014 from a subset of participants free of diabetes to measure glucose metabolism biomarkers (HbA1c, insulin, C-peptide; n = 518). We used multivariable Cox regression models to calculate adjusted HRs and 95% CIs for the risk of T2D. We estimated the least squares mean of glucose metabolic biomarkers according to coffee consumption.

RESULTS

A total of 979 participants developed T2D. Caffeinated coffee consumption was inversely associated with the risk of T2D. Adjusted HR (95% CI) for ≤1 (nonzero), 2-3, and 4+ cups/d compared with 0 cup/d (reference) was 0.91 (0.78, 1.06), 0.83 (0.69, 1.01), and 0.46 (0.28, 0.76), respectively (P-trend = 0.004). Replacement of 1 serving/d of sugar-sweetened beverage and artificially sweetened beverage with 1 cup/d of caffeinated coffee was associated with a 17% (risk ratio [RR] = 0.83, 95% CI: 0.75, 0.93) and 9% (RR = 0.91, 95% CI: 0.84, 0.99) lower risk of T2D, respectively. Greater caffeinated coffee consumption was associated with lower fasting insulin and C-peptide concentrations (all P-trend <0.05). Decaffeinated coffee intake was not significantly related to T2D but was inversely associated with C-peptide concentrations (P-trend = 0.003).

CONCLUSIONS

Among predominantly Caucasian females with a history of GDM, greater consumption of caffeinated coffee was associated with a lower risk of T2D and a more favorable metabolic profile.

Physical activity from menarche-to-first pregnancy and risk of breast cancer: the California teachers study

PURPOSE

A longer menarche-to-first pregnancy window of susceptibility (WOS) is associated with increased breast cancer risk. Whether physical activity, an established preventive risk factor, during the menarche-to-first pregnancy WOS offsets breast cancer risk overall or for specific molecular subtypes is unclear.

METHODS

We examined the prospective association between physical activity during the menarche-to-first pregnancy WOS and breast cancer risk in the California Teachers Study (N = 78,940). Recreational physical activity at multiple timepoints were recalled at cohort entry, and converted to metabolic equivalent of task hours per week (MET-hrs/wk). We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

We observed 5,157 invasive breast cancer cases over 21.6 years of follow-up. Longer menarche-to-first pregnancy WOS (≥ 20 vs. < 15 years) was associated with higher breast cancer risk (HR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.13-1.34). Women with higher physical activity level during menarche-to-first pregnancy had lower risk of invasive breast cancer (≥ 40 vs. < 9 MET-hrs/wk: HR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.83-0.97) and triple-negative subtype (≥ 40 vs. < 9 MET-hrs/wk: HR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.32-0.87). No association was observed for luminal A-like and luminal B-like subtypes. Higher physical activity level was associated with lower breast cancer risk among women with moderate (15-19 years) menarche-to-first pregnancy intervals (≥ 40 vs. < 9 MET-hrs/wk: HR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.69-0.92), but not with short (< 15 years) or long (≥ 20 years) intervals.

CONCLUSION

Physical activity during a WOS was associated with lower breast cancer risk in our cohort. Understanding timing of physical activity throughout the life course in relationship with breast cancer risk maybe important for cancer prevention strategies.

Modifiable risk factors and long term risk of type 2 diabetes among individuals with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus: prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the individual and combined associations of five modifiable risk factors with risk of type 2 diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus and examine whether these associations differ by obesity and genetic predisposition to type 2 diabetes.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Nurses' Health Study II, US.

PARTICIPANTS

4275 women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus, with repeated measurements of weight and lifestyle factors and followed up between 1991 and 2009.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Self-reported, clinically diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Five modifiable risk factors were assessed, including not being overweight or obese (body mass index <25.0), high quality diet (top two fifthsof the modified Alternate Healthy Eating Index), regular exercise (≥150 min/week of moderate intensity or ≥75 min/week of vigorous intensity), moderate alcohol consumption (5.0-14.9 g/day), and no current smoking. Genetic susceptibility for type 2 diabetes was characterised by a genetic risk score based on 59 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with type 2 diabetes in a subset of participants (n=1372).

RESULTS

Over a median 27.9 years of follow-up, 924 women developed type 2 diabetes. Compared with participants who did not have optimal levels of any of the risk factors for the development of type 2 diabetes, those who had optimal levels of all five factors had >90% lower risk of the disorder. Hazard ratios of type 2 diabetes for those with one, two, three, four, and five optimal levels of modifiable factors compared with none was 0.94 (95% confidence interval 0.59 to 1.49), 0.61 (0.38 to 0.96), 0.32 (0.20 to 0.51), 0.15 (0.09 to 0.26), and 0.08 (0.03 to 0.23), respectively (P_trend<0.001). The inverse association of the number of optimal modifiable factors with risk of type 2 diabetes was seen even in participants who were overweight/obese or with higher genetic susceptibility (P_trend<0.001). Among women with body mass index ≥25 (n=2227), the hazard ratio for achieving optimal levels of all the other four risk factors was 0.40 (95% confidence interval 0.18 to 0.91). Among women with higher genetic susceptibility, the hazard ratio of developing type 2 diabetes for having four optimal factors was 0.11 (0.04 to 0.29); in the group with optimal levels of all five factors, no type 2 diabetes events were observed.

CONCLUSIONS

Among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus, each additional optimal modifiable factor was associated with an incrementally lower risk of type 2 diabetes. These associations were seen even among individuals who were overweight/obese or were at greater genetic susceptibility.

Plasma metabolite profiles related to plant-based diets and the risk of type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

Plant-based diets, especially when rich in healthy plant foods, have been associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes. However, whether plasma metabolite profiles related to plant-based diets reflect this association was unknown. The aim of this study was to identify the plasma metabolite profiles related to plant-based diets, and to evaluate the associations between the identified metabolite profiles and the risk of type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Within three prospective cohorts (Nurses' Health Study, Nurses' Health Study II and Health Professionals Follow-up Study), we measured plasma metabolites from 10,684 participants using high-throughput LC MS. Adherence to plant-based diets was assessed by three indices derived from the food frequency questionnaire: an overall Plant-based Diet Index (PDI), a Healthy Plant-based Diet Index (hPDI), and an Unhealthy Plant-based Diet Index (uPDI). Multi-metabolite profiles related to plant-based diet were identified using elastic net regression with a training/testing approach. The prospective associations between metabolite profiles and incident type 2 diabetes were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Metabolites potentially mediating the association between plant-based diets and type 2 diabetes risk were further identified.

RESULTS

We identified multi-metabolite profiles comprising 55 metabolites for PDI, 93 metabolites for hPDI and 75 metabolites for uPDI. Metabolite profile scores based on the identified metabolite profiles were correlated with the corresponding diet index (Pearson r = 0.33-0.35 for PDI, 0.41-0.45 for hPDI, and 0.37-0.38 for uPDI, all p<0.001). Metabolite profile scores of PDI (HR per 1 SD higher = 0.81 [95% CI 0.75, 0.88]) and hPDI (HR per 1 SD higher = 0.77 [95% CI 0.71, 0.84]) showed an inverse association with incident type 2 diabetes, whereas the metabolite profile score for uPDI was not associated with the risk. Mutual adjustment for metabolites selected in the metabolite profiles, including trigonelline, hippurate, isoleucine and a subset of triacylglycerols, attenuated the associations of diet indices PDI and hPDI with lower type 2 diabetes risk. The explainable proportion of PDI/hPDI-related diabetes risk by these metabolites ranged between 8.5% and 37.2% (all p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Plasma metabolite profiles related to plant-based diets, especially a healthy plant-based diet, were associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes among a generally healthy population. Our findings support the beneficial role of healthy plant-based diets in diabetes prevention and provide new insights for future investigation.

Gestational weight gain during the second and third trimesters and adverse pregnancy outcomes, results from a prospective pregnancy cohort in urban Tanzania

Background

Appropriate gestational weight gain (GWG) is important for optimal pregnancy outcomes. This study prospectively evaluated the associations between GWG during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy and adverse pregnancy outcomes in an urban Tanzanian pregnancy cohort.

Methods

We used data from a randomized clinical trial conducted among pregnant women recruited by 27 weeks of gestation in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (N = 1230). Women’s gestational weight was measured at baseline and at monthly antenatal visits. Weekly GWG rate during the second and third trimesters was calculated and characterized as inadequate, adequate, or excessive, in conjunction with measured or imputed early-pregnancy BMI status according to the 2009 Institute of Medicine (IOM) GWG guidelines. We used multivariable Poisson regression with a sandwich variance estimator to calculate risk ratios (RR) for associations of GWG with low birth weight, preterm birth, small for gestational age (SGA), and large for gestational age (LGA). Degree of appropriate GWG defined using additional metrics (i.e., percentage of adequacy, z-score) and potential effect modification by maternal BMI were additionally evaluated.

Results

According to the IOM guidelines, 517 (42.0%), 270 (22.0%), and 443 (36.0%) women were characterized as having inadequate, adequate, and excessive GWG, respectively. Overall, compared to women with adequate GWG, women with inadequate GWG had a lower risk of LGA births (RR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.36–0.80) and a higher risk of SGA births (RR = 1.32, 95% CI: 0.95–1.81). Women with inadequate GWG as defined by percentage of GWG adequacy had a higher risk of LBW (OR = 1.93, 95% CI: 1.03–3.63). In stratified analyses by early-pregnancy BMI, excessive GWG among women with normal BMI was associated with a higher risk of preterm birth (RR = 1.59, 95% CI: 1.03–2.44).

Conclusions

A comparatively high percentage of excessive GWG was observed among healthy pregnant women in Tanzania. Both inadequate and excessive GWGs were associated with elevated risks of poor pregnancy outcomes. Future studies among diverse SSA populations are warranted to confirm our findings, and clinical recommendations on optimal GWG should be developed to promote healthy GWG in SSA settings.

Trial registration: This trial was registered as “Prenatal Iron Supplements: Safety and Efficacy in Tanzania” (NCT01119612; http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT01119612).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12978-022-01441-7.

Pregnancy is a critical lifetime event for both mother and the offspring, with implications in short-term and long-term health consequences. Gestational weight gain (GWG) is an important modifiable factor for pregnancy outcomes related to infant body size and weight and prematurity. Countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have long had poor rates of insufficient GWG and pregnancy complications associated with insufficient GWG. Nevertheless, some SSA countries are experiencing economic transitions accompanied with changes in lifestyle and nutrition, which might impact pregnancy experiences, including GWG and pregnancy outcomes. This study aimed to characterize recent GWG patterns and the associations of both inadequate and excessive GWG with adverse pregnancy outcomes, using an urban pregnancy cohort in Tanzania. This study found that 42.0%. 22.0%, and 36.0% of women had insufficient, adequate, and excessive GWG, respectively. Insufficient GWG was associated with higher risks of small infant size and low infant body weight, and excessive GWG was associated with higher risk of preterm birth, particularly among women with body mass index 18.5–25.0 kg/m². Results from the present study highlight that both insufficient and excessive GWG are of potential public health concerns in urban centers of SSA, concerning upward trends in obesity and possibly obesity-related pregnancy consequences. Local public health practitioners should continue to advocate longitudinal GWG monitoring and care among African pregnant women, and optimal GWG with feasible and effective clinical guidelines should be developed to prevent both over- and under-gaining of maternal weight during pregnancy.

Association of Modifiable Lifestyle Factors with Plasma Branched-Chain Amino Acid Metabolites in Women

BACKGROUND

Circulating branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs-isoleucine, leucine, and valine) are strongly associated with higher risk of incident type 2 diabetes (T2D); however, determinants of elevated fasting BCAA concentrations are largely unknown.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to characterize the modifiable lifestyle factors related to plasma BCAAs.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis among n = 18,897 women (mean ± SD age: 54.9 ± 7.2 y) in the Women's Health Study, free of T2D and cardiovascular disease at baseline blood draw. Lifestyle factors, weight, and height were self-reported via questionnaire, including smoking status, alcohol, leisure-time physical activity (LTPA), diet quality scores [2010 Alternative Healthy Eating Index (without alcohol) (aHEI); alternate Mediterranean Diet (aMED)], and dietary sources of BCAAs. Plasma BCAAs were quantified via NMR spectroscopy. We calculated multivariable-adjusted percentage mean differences (95% CIs) and P values for linear trend of BCAAs stratified by categoric lifestyle factors. We estimated R2 from univariate cubic spline regression models to estimate the variability in BCAAs explained.

RESULTS

Compared with women with BMI (in kg/m2) <25.0, BCAAs were 8.6% (95% CI: 8.0%, 9.3%), 15.3% (95% CI: 14.4%, 16.3%), and 21.0% (95% CI: 18.2%, 23.9%) higher for the BMI strata 25.0-29.9, 30.0-39.9, and ≥40.0, respectively (P-trend < 0.0001). Women with higher LTPA and higher alcohol intake compared with lower had modestly (∼1%) lower plasma BCAAs (P-trend = 0.014 and 0.0003, respectively). Differences in smoking status, aHEI, and aMED score were not related to plasma BCAAs. Women with higher dietary BCAAs had dose-response higher plasma BCAA concentrations, 3.4% (95% CI: 2.5%, 4.4%) higher when comparing the highest with the lowest quintile (P-trend < 0.0001). BMI explained 11.6% of the variability of BCAAs, whereas other factors explained between 0.1% and 1%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings among a large cohort of US women indicate that BMI, but less so diet, physical activity, and other lifestyle factors, is related to plasma BCAAs.This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00000479.

Prevention of type 2 diabetes through remotely-administered lifestyle programs: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

Although effective in reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), in-person lifestyle modification programs have been underutilized. To minimize barriers related to convenience and accessibility, recent research has focused on developing virtual or remote interventions that may have comparable or greater efficacy in promoting lifestyle changes and reducing the risk of T2D. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the efficacy of remotely-administered lifestyle interventions on preventing T2D.

METHODS

We searched an electronic database by using keywords, and a web-based software platform was used to screen articles and extract data in duplicate. We included articles with adolescent/adult participant populations who had prediabetes or were at elevated risk of diabetes, remotely-administered lifestyle interventions on T2D prevention, and changes in glycemic traits. We excluded trials of patients with prevalent T2D, interventions that included medications, and those not relevant to our outcomes of interest.

RESULTS

A total of 8 publications were included in this systematic review. Six papers indicated significant reductions in weight and/or glycemic biomarkers such as HbA1c and fasting glucose. All studies reported that remotely-administered interventions were convenient for participants, and one publication reported that participation of the online DPP group was significantly higher than the in-person DPP.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that remotely-administered lifestyle interventions for T2D prevention could be a promising participant-friendly alternative to in-person programs, with efficacy for reducing weight and glycemic biomarkers.

Design and baseline characteristics of participants in the COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS)

Background Cocoa extract and multivitamins have been proposed to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer, respectively. However, few randomized clinical trials have tested their long-term effects on these outcomes. Methods The COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS) is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 2 × 2 factorial trial of a cocoa extract supplement and a multivitamin supplement to reduce the risk of CVD and cancer. Here we describe the pragmatic, hybrid design of the trial and baseline characteristics of the trial participants. Results The nationwide study population includes 21,442 U.S. women aged ≥65 years and men aged ≥60 years without baseline myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or a recent (within the past 2 years) cancer diagnosis. Participants were randomized in a 2 × 2 factorial design to one of four groups: (1) cocoa extract (containing 500 mg/d flavanols, including 80 mg (-)-epicatechin) and a multivitamin (Centrum Silver©); (2) cocoa extract and multivitamin placebo; (3) multivitamin and cocoa extract placebo; or (4) both placebos. Randomization successfully distributed baseline demographic, clinical, behavioral, and dietary characteristics across treatment groups. Baseline biospecimens were collected from 6867 participants, with at least one follow-up biospecimen from 2142 participants. The primary outcome for the cocoa extract intervention is total CVD (a composite of MI, stroke, cardiovascular mortality, coronary revascularization, unstable angina requiring hospitalization, carotid artery surgery, and peripheral artery surgery); the primary outcome for the multivitamin intervention is total invasive cancer. Conclusion COSMOS will provide important information on the health effects of cocoa extract and multivitamin supplementation in older U.S. adults. Clinical Trials Registration: clinicaltrials.gov #NCT02422745.

The energy balance model of obesity: beyond calories in, calories out

A recent Perspective article described the "carbohydrate-insulin model (CIM)" of obesity, asserting that it "better reflects knowledge on the biology of weight control" as compared with what was described as the "dominant energy balance model (EBM)," which fails to consider "biological mechanisms that promote weight gain." Unfortunately, the Perspective conflated and confused the principle of energy balance, a law of physics that is agnostic as to obesity mechanisms, with the EBM as a theoretical model of obesity that is firmly based on biology. In doing so, the authors presented a false choice between the CIM and a caricature of the EBM that does not reflect modern obesity science. Here, we present a more accurate description of the EBM where the brain is the primary organ responsible for body weight regulation operating mainly below our conscious awareness via complex endocrine, metabolic, and nervous system signals to control food intake in response to the body's dynamic energy needs as well as environmental influences. We also describe the recent history of the CIM and show how the latest "most comprehensive formulation" abandons a formerly central feature that required fat accumulation in adipose tissue to be the primary driver of positive energy balance. As such, the new CIM can be considered a special case of the more comprehensive EBM but with a narrower focus on diets high in glycemic load as the primary factor responsible for common obesity. We review data from a wide variety of studies that address the validity of each model and demonstrate that the EBM is a more robust theory of obesity than the CIM.

The energy balance model of obesity: beyond calories in, calories out

A recent Perspective article described the "carbohydrate-insulin model (CIM)" of obesity, asserting that it "better reflects knowledge on the biology of weight control" as compared with what was described as the "dominant energy balance model (EBM)," which fails to consider "biological mechanisms that promote weight gain." Unfortunately, the Perspective conflated and confused the principle of energy balance, a law of physics that is agnostic as to obesity mechanisms, with the EBM as a theoretical model of obesity that is firmly based on biology. In doing so, the authors presented a false choice between the CIM and a caricature of the EBM that does not reflect modern obesity science. Here, we present a more accurate description of the EBM where the brain is the primary organ responsible for body weight regulation operating mainly below our conscious awareness via complex endocrine, metabolic, and nervous system signals to control food intake in response to the body's dynamic energy needs as well as environmental influences. We also describe the recent history of the CIM and show how the latest "most comprehensive formulation" abandons a formerly central feature that required fat accumulation in adipose tissue to be the primary driver of positive energy balance. As such, the new CIM can be considered a special case of the more comprehensive EBM but with a narrower focus on diets high in glycemic load as the primary factor responsible for common obesity. We review data from a wide variety of studies that address the validity of each model and demonstrate that the EBM is a more robust theory of obesity than the CIM.

Dietary diversity and diet quality with gestational weight gain and adverse birth outcomes, results from a prospective pregnancy cohort study in urban Tanzania

Healthy maternal diets during pregnancy are an important protective factor for pregnancy‐related outcomes, including gestational weight gain (GWG) and birth outcomes. We prospectively examined the associations of maternal dietary diversity and diet quality, using Minimum Dietary Diversity for Women (MDD‐W) and Prime Diet Quality Score (PDQS), with GWG and birth outcomes among women enrolled in a trial in Tanzania (n = 1190). MDD‐W and PDQS were derived from a baseline food frequency questionnaire. Women were monthly followed until delivery, during which weight was measured. GWG was classified based on the 2009 Institute of Medicine guidelines. Adverse birth outcomes were classified as low birth weight (LBW), small for gestational age, large for gestational age, and preterm birth. 46.2% participants had MDD‐W ≥ 5. Mean score of PDQS was 23.3. Maternal intakes of nuts, poultry, and eggs were low, whereas intakes of sugar‐sweetened beverages and refined grains were high. MDD‐W was not associated with GWG or birth outcomes. For PDQS, compared to the lowest tertile, women in the highest tertile had lower risk of inappropriate GWG (risk ratio [RR] = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87–1.00). Women in the middle tertile group of PDQS (RR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.51–1.00) had lower risk of preterm birth. After excluding women with prior complications, higher PDQS was associated with lower risk of LBW (middle tertile: RR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.31–0.99, highest tertile: RR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.29–0.94; continuous per SD: RR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.60–0.99). Our findings support continuing efforts to improve maternal diet quality for optimal GWG and infant outcomes among Tanzanian women.

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Maternal diets are a key modifiable determinant of gestational weight gain (GWG) and birth outcomes.

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We observed suboptimal intakes of healthy proteins and fats and high intakes of refined grains and sugar‐containing foods among well‐nourished pregnant women in urban Tanzania.

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This study found that higher‐quality maternal diets were associated with lower risks of inappropriate GWG, low birth weight, and preterm birth.

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This study supports the importance of high maternal diet quality and continuing efforts to promote well‐balanced maternal diets with avoiding both under‐ and over‐nutrition for optimal pregnancy outcomes among Tanzanian populations.

Practical, Evidence-Based Approaches to Nutritional Modifications to Reduce Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: An American Society for Preventive Cardiology Clinical Practice Statement

Despite numerous advances in all areas of cardiovascular care, cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death in the United States (US). There is compelling evidence that interventions to improve diet are effective in cardiovascular disease prevention. This clinical practice statement emphasizes the importance of evidence-based dietary patterns in the prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), and ASCVD risk factors, including hyperlipidemia, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. A diet consisting predominantly of fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts, seeds, plant protein and fatty fish is optimal for the prevention of ASCVD. Consuming more of these foods, while reducing consumption of foods with saturated fat, dietary cholesterol, salt, refined grain, and ultra-processed food intake are the common components of a healthful dietary pattern. Dietary recommendations for special populations including pediatrics, older persons, and nutrition and social determinants of health for ASCVD prevention are discussed.

Lifestyle Changes and Long-term Weight Gain in Women With and Without a History of Gestational Diabetes Mellitus: A Prospective Study of 54,062 Women in the Nurses' Health Study II

OBJECTIVE

We examined lifestyle factors with midlife weight change according to history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in a large longitudinal female cohort.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

In the Nurses' Health Study II, we categorized changes in lifestyle within 4-year periods and estimated their associations with concurrent changes in body weight (kilograms) among parous women after age 40 years by GDM history status (N = 54,062; 5.3% with a history of GDM) for the following: diet quality (Alternate Healthy Eating Index [AHEI]), leisure-time physical activity (PA), alcohol consumption, and smoking status.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 13 years, average 4-year weight gain was 1.10 and 1.33 kg for women with and without prior GDM, respectively. Women with improved diet quality had favorable 4-year weight change, particularly those with a history of GDM (AHEI change [95% CI] from low to high -2.97 kg [-4.34, -1.60] vs. -1.19 kg [-1.41, -0.96] for GDM vs. non-GDM, respectively; P heterogeneity = 0.04). Increasing PA was associated with weight maintenance for GDM women only (PA increase [95% CI] from low to high 0.26 kg [-0.25, 0.77] vs. 0.90 kg [0.80, 1.01] for GDM vs. non-GDM, respectively; P heterogeneity = 0.02). For both GDM and non-GDM women, weight change did not differ significantly with change in alcohol consumption, while women who quit smoking had significant weight gain (4.38 kg for GDM and 3.85 kg for non-GDM).

CONCLUSIONS

Improvements in diet quality and PA were related to less weight gain in midlife among parous women, and the benefit of such improvements on weight management was particularly pronounced among women with a history of GDM.