Blood glucose controller for neonatal intensive care: virtual trials development and first clinical trials

Continuous Glucose Monitoring in Transient Neonatal Diabetes Mellitus-2 Case Reports and Literature Review

Neonatal diabetes mellitus is a rare genetic disease that affects 1 in 90,000 live births. The start of the disease is often before the baby is 6 months old, with rare cases of onset between 6 months and 1 year. It is characterized by low or absent insulin levels in the blood, leading to severe hyperglycemia in the patient, which requires temporary insulin therapy in around 50% of cases or permanent insulin therapy in other cases. Two major processes involved in diabetes mellitus are a deformed pancreas with altered insulin-secreting cell development and/or survival or faulty functioning of the existing pancreatic beta cell. We will discuss the cases of two preterm girls with neonatal diabetes mellitus in this research. In addition to reviewing the literature on the topic, we examined the different mutations, patient care, and clinical outcomes both before and after insulin treatment.

The development of a glucose prediction model in critically ill patients

PURPOSE

The aim of the current study is to develop a prediction model for glucose levels applicable for all patients admitted to the ICU with an expected ICU stay of at least 24 h. This model will be incorporated in a closed-loop glucose system to continuously and automatically control glucose values.

METHODS

Data from a previous single-center randomized controlled study was used. All patients received a FreeStyle Navigator II subcutaneous CGM system from Abbott during their ICU stay. The total dataset was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set. A glucose prediction model was developed based on historical glucose data. Accuracy of the prediction model was determined using the Mean Squared Difference (MSD), the Mean Absolute Difference (MAD) and a Clarke Error Grid (CEG).

RESULTS

The dataset included 94 ICU patients with a total of 134,673 glucose measurements points that were used for modelling. MSD was 0.410 ± 0.495 for the model, the MAD was 5.19 ± 2.63 and in the CEG 99.8% of the data points were in the clinically acceptable regions.

CONCLUSION

In this study a glucose prediction model for ICU patients is developed. This study shows that it is possible to accurately predict a patient's glucose 30 min ahead based on historical glucose data. This is the first step in the development of a closed-loop glucose system.

Feasibility of automated insulin delivery guided by continuous glucose monitoring in preterm infants

OBJECTIVE

Closed-loop systems have been used to optimise insulin delivery in children with diabetes, but they have not been tested in neonatal intensive care. Extremely preterm infants are prone to hyperglycaemia and hypoglycaemia; both of which have been associated with adverse outcomes. Insulin sensitivity is notoriously variable in these babies and glucose control is time-consuming, with management requiring frequent changes of dextrose-containing fluids and careful monitoring of insulin treatment. We aimed to evaluate the feasibility of closed-loop management of glucose control in these infants.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Single-centre feasibility study with a randomised parallel design in a neonatal intensive care unit. Eligibility criteria included birth weight <1200 g and <48 hours of age. All infants had subcutaneous continuous glucose monitoring for the first week of life, with those in the intervention group receiving closed-loop insulin delivery in a prespecified window, between 48 and 72 hours of age during which time the primary outcome was percentage of time in target (sensor glucose 4-8 mmol/L).

RESULTS

The mean (SD) gestational age and birth weight of intervention and control study arms were 27.0 (2.4) weeks, 962 (164) g and 27.5 (2.8) weeks, 823 (282) g, respectively, and were not significantly different. The time in target was dramatically increased from median (IQR) 26% (6-64) with paper guidance to 91% (78-99) during closed loop (p<0.001). There were no serious adverse events and no difference in total insulin infused.

CONCLUSIONS

Closed-loop glucose control based on subcutaneous glucose measurements appears feasible as a potential method of optimising glucose control in extremely preterm infants.

Next-generation, personalised, model-based critical care medicine: a state-of-the art review of in silico virtual patient models, methods, and cohorts, and how to validation them

Critical care, like many healthcare areas, is under a dual assault from significantly increasing demographic and economic pressures. Intensive care unit (ICU) patients are highly variable in response to treatment, and increasingly aging populations mean ICUs are under increasing demand and their cohorts are increasingly ill. Equally, patient expectations are growing, while the economic ability to deliver care to all is declining. Better, more productive care is thus the big challenge. One means to that end is personalised care designed to manage the significant inter- and intra-patient variability that makes the ICU patient difficult. Thus, moving from current "one size fits all" protocolised care to adaptive, model-based "one method fits all" personalised care could deliver the required step change in the quality, and simultaneously the productivity and cost, of care. Computer models of human physiology are a unique tool to personalise care, as they can couple clinical data with mathematical methods to create subject-specific models and virtual patients to design new, personalised and more optimal protocols, as well as to guide care in real-time. They rely on identifying time varying patient-specific parameters in the model that capture inter- and intra-patient variability, the difference between patients and the evolution of patient condition. Properly validated, virtual patients represent the real patients, and can be used in silico to test different protocols or interventions, or in real-time to guide care. Hence, the underlying models and methods create the foundation for next generation care, as well as a tool for safely and rapidly developing personalised treatment protocols over large virtual cohorts using virtual trials. This review examines the models and methods used to create virtual patients. Specifically, it presents the models types and structures used and the data required. It then covers how to validate the resulting virtual patients and trials, and how these virtual trials can help design and optimise clinical trial. Links between these models and higher order, more complex physiome models are also discussed. In each section, it explores the progress reported up to date, especially on core ICU therapies in glycemic, circulatory and mechanical ventilation management, where high cost and frequency of occurrence provide a significant opportunity for model-based methods to have measurable clinical and economic impact. The outcomes are readily generalised to other areas of medical care.

The Virtual Anemia Trial: An Assessment of Model-Based In Silico Clinical Trials of Anemia Treatment Algorithms in Patients With Hemodialysis

In silico approaches have been proposed as a novel strategy to increase the repertoire of clinical trial designs. Realistic simulations of clinical trials can provide valuable information regarding safety and limitations of treatment protocols and have been shown to assist in the cost‐effective planning of clinical studies. In this report, we present a blueprint for the stepwise integration of internal, external, and ecological validity considerations in virtual clinical trials (VCTs). We exemplify this approach in the context of a model‐based in silico clinical trial aimed at anemia treatment in patients undergoing hemodialysis (HD). Hemoglobin levels and subsequent anemia treatment were simulated on a per patient level over the course of a year and compared to real‐life clinical data of 79,426 patients undergoing HD. The novel strategies presented here, aimed to improve external and ecological validity of a VCT, significantly increased the predictive power of the discussed in silico trial.

Continuous glucose monitoring in neonates: a review

Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) is well established in the management of diabetes mellitus, but its role in neonatal glycaemic control is less clear. CGM has provided important insights about neonatal glucose metabolism, and there is increasing interest in its clinical use, particularly in preterm neonates and in those in whom glucose control is difficult. Neonatal glucose instability, including hypoglycaemia and hyperglycaemia, has been associated with poorer neurodevelopment, and CGM offers the possibility of adjusting treatment in real time to account for individual metabolic requirements while reducing the number of blood tests required, potentially improving long-term outcomes. However, current devices are optimised for use at relatively high glucose concentrations, and several technical issues need to be resolved before real-time CGM can be recommended for routine neonatal care. These include: 1) limited point accuracy, especially at low or rapidly changing glucose concentrations; 2) calibration methods that are designed for higher glucose concentrations of children and adults, and not for neonates; 3) sensor drift, which is under-recognised; and 4) the need for dynamic and integrated metrics that can be related to long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes. CGM remains an important tool for retrospective investigation of neonatal glycaemia and the effect of different treatments on glucose metabolism. However, at present CGM should be limited to research studies, and should only be introduced into routine clinical care once benefit is demonstrated in randomised trials.

Untangling glycaemia and mortality in critical care

Background

Hyperglycaemia is associated with adverse outcomes in the intensive care unit, and initial studies suggested outcome benefits of glycaemic control (GC). However, subsequent studies often failed to replicate these results, and they were often unable to achieve consistent, safe control, raising questions about the benefit or harm of GC as well as the nature of the association of glycaemia with mortality and clinical outcomes. In this study, we evaluated if non-survivors are harder to control than survivors and determined if glycaemic outcome is a function of patient condition and eventual outcome or of the glycaemic control provided.

Methods

Clinically validated, model-based, hour-to-hour insulin sensitivity (SI) and its hour-to-hour variability (%ΔSI) were identified over the first 72 h of therapy in 145 patients (119 survivors, 26 non-survivors). In hypothesis testing, we compared distributions of SI and %ΔSI in 6-hourly blocks for survivors and non-survivors. In equivalence testing, we assessed if differences in these distributions, based on blood glucose measurement error, were clinically significant.

Results

SI level was never equivalent between survivors and non-survivors (95% CI of percentage difference in medians outside ±12%). Non-survivors had higher SI, ranging from 9% to 47% higher overall in 6-h blocks, and this difference became statistically significant as glycaemic control progressed. %ΔSI was equivalent between survivors and non-survivors for all 6-hourly blocks (95% CI of difference in medians within ±12%) and decreased in general over time as glycaemic control progressed.

Conclusions

Whereas non-survivors had higher SI levels, variability was equivalent to that of survivors over the first 72 h. These results indicate survivors and non-survivors are equally controllable, given an effective glycaemic control protocol, suggesting that glycaemia level and variability, and thus the association between glycaemia and outcome, are essentially determined by the control provided rather than by underlying patient or metabolic condition.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13054-017-1725-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Computer-determined dosage of insulin in the management of neonatal hyperglycaemia (HINT2): protocol of a randomised controlled trial

INTRODUCTION

Neonatal hyperglycaemia is frequently treated with insulin, which may increase the risk of hypoglycaemia. Computer-determined dosage of insulin (CDD) with the STAR-GRYPHON program uses a computer model to predict an effective dose of insulin to treat hyperglycaemia while minimising the risk of hypoglycaemia. However, CDD models can require more frequent blood glucose testing than common clinical protocols. The aim of this trial is to determine if CDD using STAR-GRYPHON reduces hypoglycaemia in hyperglycaemic preterm babies treated with insulin independent of the frequency of blood glucose testing.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Design: Multicentre, non-blinded, randomised controlled trial.

SETTING

Neonatal intensive care units in New Zealand and Australia.

PARTICIPANTS

138 preterm babies ≤30 weeks' gestation or ≤1500 g at birth who develop hyperglycaemia (two consecutive blood glucose concentrations ≥10 mmol/L, at least 4 hours apart) will be randomised to one of three groups: (1) CDD using the STAR-GRYPHON model-based decision support system: insulin dose and frequency of blood glucose testing advised by STAR-GRYPHON, with a maximum testing interval of 4 hours; (2) bedside titration: insulin dose determined by medical staff, maximum blood glucose testing interval of 4 hours; (3) standard care: insulin dose and frequency of blood glucose testing determined by medical staff. The target range for blood glucose concentrations is 5-8 mmol/L in all groups. A subset of babies will have masked continuous glucose monitoring.

PRIMARY OUTCOME

is the number of babies with one or more episodes of hypoglycaemia (blood glucose concentration <2.6 mmol/L), during treatment with insulin.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol has been approved by New Zealand's Health and Disability Ethics Committee: 14/STH/26. A data safety monitoring committee has been appointed to oversee the trial. Findings will be disseminated to participants and carers, peer-reviewed journals, guideline developers and the public.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

12614000492651.

Insulin kinetics and the Neonatal Intensive Care Insulin-Nutrition-Glucose (NICING) model

BACKGROUND

Models of human glucose-insulin physiology have been developed for a range of uses, with similarly different levels of complexity and accuracy. STAR (Stochastic Targeted) is a model-based approach to glycaemic control. Elevated blood glucose concentrations (hyperglycaemia) are a common complication of stress and prematurity in very premature infants, and have been associated with worsened outcomes and higher mortality. This research identifies and validates the model parameters for model-based glycaemic control in neonatal intensive care.

METHODS

C-peptide, plasma insulin, and BG from a cohort of 41 extremely pre-term (median age 27.2 [26.2-28.7] weeks) and very low birth weight infants (median birth weight 839 [735-1000] g) are used alongside C-peptide kinetic models to identify model parameters associated with insulin kinetics in the NICING (Neonatal Intensive Care Insulin-Nutrition-Glucose) model. A literature analysis is used to determine models of kidney clearance and body fluid compartment volumes. The full, final NICING model is validated by fitting the model to a cohort of 160 glucose, insulin, and nutrition data records from extremely premature infants from two different NICUs (neonatal intensive care units).

RESULTS

Six model parameters related to insulin kinetics were identified. The resulting NICING model is more physiologically descriptive than prior model iterations, including clearance pathways of insulin via the liver and kidney, rather than a lumped parameter. In addition, insulin diffusion between plasma and interstitial spaces is evaluated, with differences in distribution volume taken into consideration for each of these spaces. The NICING model was shown to fit clinical data well, with a low model fit error similar to that of previous model iterations.

CONCLUSIONS

Insulin kinetic parameters have been identified, and the NICING model is presented for glycaemic control neonatal intensive care. The resulting NICING model is more complex and physiologically relevant, with no loss in bedside-identifiability or ability to capture and predict metabolic dynamics.

On the problem of patient-specific endogenous glucose production in neonates on stochastic targeted glycemic control

BACKGROUND

Both stress and prematurity can induce hyperglycemia in the neonatal intensive care unit, which, in turn, is associated with worsened outcomes. Endogenous glucose production (EGP) is the formation of glucose by the body from substrates and contributes to blood glucose (BG) levels. Due to the inherent fragility of the extremely low birth weight (ELBW) neonates, true fasting EGP cannot be explicitly determined, introducing uncertainty into glycemic models that rely on quantifying glucose sources. Stochastic targeting, or STAR, is one such glycemic control framework.

METHODS

A literature review was carried out to gather metabolic and EGP values on preterm infants with a gestational age (GA) &lt;32 weeks and a birth weight (BW) &lt;2 kg. The data were analyzed for EGP trends with BW, GA, BG, plasma insulin, and glucose infusion (GI) rates. Trends were modeled and compared with a literature-derived range of population constant EGP models using clinically validated virtual trials on retrospective clinical data.

RESULTS

No clear relationship was found for EGP and BW, GA, or plasma insulin. Some evidence of suppression of EGP with increasing GI or BG was seen. Virtual trial results showed that population-constant EGP models fit clinical data best and gave tighter control performance to a target band in virtual trials.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in EGP cannot easily be quantified, and EGP is sufficiently modeled as a population constant in the neonatal intensive care insulin-nutrition-glucose model. Analysis of the clinical data and fitting error suggests that ELBW hyperglycemic preterm neonates have unsuppressed EGP in the higher range than that seen in literature.

Nasogastric aspiration as an indicator for feed absorption in model-based glycemic control in neonatal intensive care

BACKGROUND

STAR (stochastic targeted) is a glycemic control model-based framework for critically ill neonates that has shown benefits in reducing hypoglycemia and hyperglycemia. STAR uses a stochastic matrix method to forecast future changes in a patient's insulin sensitivity and then applies this result to a physiological model to select an optimal insulin treatment. Nasogastric aspiration may be used as an indicator to suggest periods of care when enteral feed absorption is compromised, improving the performance of glycemic control. An analysis has been carried out to investigate the effect of poorly absorbed feeds on glycemic control.

METHOD

Clinical data were collected from eight patients on insulin therapy and enteral feed, which included large or significantly milky aspirates. Patients had a median gestational age of 25 weeks and postnatal age of 5.5 days. Virtual patients were created using the NICING model, and insulin sensitivity (SI) profiles were fit. Alternative feed profiles were generated whereby enteral feed absorption was redistributed with time to account for poor feed absorption. The effect of poor feed absorption, as indicated by aspirates, is investigated.

RESULTS

The average percentage change of SI 4 h before a significant aspirate was 1.16%, and 1.49% in the 4 h following the aspirate. No distinct relationship was found between the fractional change in SI and the volume of the aspirate. Accounting for aspirates had a clinically negligible impact on glycemic control in virtual trials.

CONCLUSION

Accounting for aspirates by manipulating enteral feed profiles had a minimal influence on both modeling and controlling glycemia in neonates. The impact of this method is clinically insignificant, suggesting that a population constant for the rate of glucose absorption in the gut adequately models feed absorption within the STAR framework.

Impact of variation in patient response on model-based control of glycaemia in critically ill patients

Critically ill patients commonly experience stress-induced hyperglycaemia, and several studies have shown tight glycaemic control (TGC) can reduce patient mortality. However, tight control is often difficult to achieve due to conflicting drug therapies and evolving patient condition. Thus, a number of studies have failed to achieve consistently safe and effective TGC possibly due to the use of fixed insulin dosing protocols over adaptive patient-specific methods. Model-based targeted glucose control can adapt insulin and dextrose interventions to match identified patient insulin sensitivity. This study explores the impact on glycaemic control of assuming patient response to insulin is constant, as many protocols do, versus time-varying. Validated virtual trial simulations of glucose control were performed on adult and neonatal virtual patient cohorts. Results indicate assumptions of constant insulin sensitivity can lead to six-fold increases in incidence of hypoglycaemia, similar to literature reports and a commonly cited issue preventing increased adoption of TGC in critical care. It is clear that adaptive, patient-specific, approaches are better able to manage inter- and intra-patient variability than typical, fixed protocols.

First pilot trial of the STAR-Liege protocol for tight glycemic control in critically ill patients

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits in ICU patients, but been difficult to achieve consistently due to inter- and intra- patient variability that requires more adaptive, patient-specific solutions. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible model-based TGC framework accounting for patient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) below 72 mg/dL. This research describes the first clinical pilot trial of the STAR approach and the post-trial analysis of the models and methods that underpin the protocol. The STAR framework works with clinically specified targets and intervention guidelines. The clinically specified glycemic target was 125 mg/dL. Each trial was 24 h with BG measured 1-2 hourly. Two-hourly measurement was used when BG was between 110-135 mg/dL for 3 h. In the STAR approach, each intervention leads to a predicted BG level and outcome range (5-95th percentile) based on a stochastic model of metabolic patient variability. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was monitored, but not changed from clinical settings except to prevent BG<100 mg/dL when no insulin was given. Insulin infusion rates were limited (6 U/h maximum), with limited increases based on current infusion rate (0.5-2.0 U/h), making this use of the STAR framework an insulin-only TGC approach. Approval was granted by the Ethics Committee of the Medical Faculty of the University of Liege (Liege, Belgium). Nine patient trials were undertaken after obtaining informed consent. There were 205 measurements over all 9 trials. Median [IQR] per-patient results were: BG: 138.5 [130.6-146.0]mg/dL; carbohydrate administered: 2-11 g/h; median insulin:1.3 [0.9-2.4]U/h with a maximum of 6.0 [4.7-6.0]U/h. Median [IQR] time in the desired 110-140 mg/dL band was: 50.0 [31.2-54.2]%. Median model prediction errors ranged: 10-18%, with larger errors due to small meals and other clinical events. The minimum BG was 63 mg/dL and no other measurement was below 72 mg/dL, so only 1 measurement (0.5%) was below the 5% guaranteed minimum risk level. Post-trial analysis showed that patients were more variable than predicted by the stochastic model used for control, resulting in some of the prediction errors seen. Analysis and (validated) virtual trial re-simulating the clinical trial using stochastic models relevant to the patient's particular day of ICU stay were seen to be more accurate in capturing the observed variability. This analysis indicated that equivalent control and safety could be obtained with similar or lower glycemic variability in control using more specific stochastic models. STAR effectively controlled all patients to target. Observed patient variability in response to insulin and thus prediction errors were higher than expected, likely due to the recent insult of cardiac surgery or a major cardiac event, and their immediate recovery. STAR effectively managed this variability with no hypoglycemia. Improved stochastic models will be used to prospectively test these outcomes in further ongoing clinical pilot trials in this and other units.

Pilot study of a model-based approach to blood glucose control in very-low-birthweight neonates

Background

Hyperglycemia often occurs in premature, very low birthweight infants (VLBW) due to immaturity of endogenous regulatory systems and the stress of their condition. Hyperglycemia in neonates has been linked to increased morbidities and mortality and occurs at increasing rates with decreasing birthweight. In this cohort, the emerging use of insulin to manage hyperglycemia has carried a significant risk of hypoglycemia. The efficacy of blood glucose control using a computer metabolic system model to determine insulin infusion rates was assessed in very-low-birth-weight infants.

Methods

Initial short-term 24-hour trials were performed on 8 VLBW infants with hyperglycemia followed by long-term trials of several days performed on 22 infants. Median birthweight was 745 g and 760 g for short-term and long-term trial infants, and median gestational age at birth was 25.6 and 25.4 weeks respectively. Blood glucose control is compared to 21 retrospective patients from the same unit who received insulin infusions determined by sliding scales and clinician intuition. This study was approved by the Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee, New Zealand (ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01419873).

Results

Reduction in hyperglycemia towards the target glucose band was achieved safely in all cases during the short-term trials with no hypoglycemic episodes. Lower median blood glucose concentration was achieved during clinical implementation at 6.6 mmol/L (IQR: 5.5 – 8.2 mmol/L, 1,003 measurements), compared to 8.0 mmol/L achieved in similar infants previously (p < 0.01). No significant difference in incidence of hypoglycemia during long-term trials was observed (0.25% vs 0.25%, p = 0.51). Percentage of blood glucose within the 4.0 – 8.0 mmol/L range was increased by 41% compared to the retrospective cohort (68.4% vs 48.4%, p < 0.01).

Conclusions

A computer model that accurately captures the dynamics of neonatal metabolism can provide safe and effective blood glucose control without increasing hypoglycemia.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov registration NCT01419873

Using stochastic modelling to identify unusual continuous glucose monitor measurements and behaviour, in newborn infants

Background

Abnormal blood glucose (BG) concentrations have been associated with increased morbidity and mortality in both critically ill adults and infants. Furthermore, hypoglycaemia and glycaemic variability have both been independently linked to mortality in these patients. Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) devices have the potential to improve detection and diagnosis of these glycaemic abnormalities. However, sensor noise is a trade-off of the high measurement rate and must be managed effectively if CGMs are going to be used to monitor, diagnose and potentially help treat glycaemic abnormalities.

Aim

To develop a tool that will aid clinicians in identifying unusual CGM behaviour and highlight CGM data that potentially need to be interpreted with care.

Methods

CGM data and BG measurements from 50 infants at risk of hypoglycaemia were used. Unusual CGM measurements were classified using a stochastic model based on the kernel density method and historical CGM measurements from the cohort. CGM traces were colour coded with very unusual measurements coloured red, highlighting areas to be interpreted with care. A 5-fold validation of the model was Monte Carlo simulated 25 times to ensure an adequate model fit.

Results

The stochastic model was generated using ~67,000 CGM measurements, spread across the glycaemic range ~2-10 mmol/L. A 5-fold validation showed a good model fit: the model 80% confidence interval (CI) captured 83% of clinical CGM data, the model 90% CI captured 91% of clinical CGM data, and the model 99% CI captured 99% of clinical CGM data. Three patient examples show the stochastic classification method in use with 1) A stable, low variability patient which shows no unusual CGM measurements, 2) A patient with a very sudden, short hypoglycaemic event (classified as unusual), and, 3) A patient with very high, potentially un-physiological, glycaemic variability after day 3 of monitoring (classified as very unusual).

Conclusions

This study has produced a stochastic model and classification method capable of highlighting unusual CGM behaviour. This method has the potential to classify important glycaemic events (e.g. hypoglycaemia) as true clinical events or sensor noise, and to help identify possible sensor degradation. Colour coded CGM traces convey the information quickly and efficiently, while remaining computationally light enough to be used retrospectively or in real-time.

Variability of insulin sensitivity during the first 4 days of critical illness: implications for tight glycemic control

Background

Effective tight glycemic control (TGC) can improve outcomes in critical care patients, but it is difficult to achieve consistently. Insulin sensitivity defines the metabolic balance between insulin concentration and insulin-mediated glucose disposal. Hence, variability of insulin sensitivity can cause variable glycemia. This study quantifies and compares the daily evolution of insulin sensitivity level and variability for critical care patients receiving TGC.

Methods

This is a retrospective analysis of data from the SPRINT TGC study involving patients admitted to a mixed medical-surgical ICU between August 2005 and May 2007. Only patients who commenced TGC within 12 hours of ICU admission and spent at least 24 hours on the SPRINT protocol were included (N = 164). Model-based insulin sensitivity (SI) was identified each hour. Absolute level and hour-to-hour percent changes in SI were assessed on cohort and per-patient bases. Levels and variability of SI were compared over time on 24-hour and 6-hour timescales for the first 4 days of ICU stay.

Results

Cohort and per-patient median SI levels increased by 34% and 33% (p < 0.001) between days 1 and 2 of ICU stay. Concomitantly, cohort and per-patient SI variability decreased by 32% and 36% (p < 0.001). For 72% of the cohort, median SI on day 2 was higher than on day 1. The day 1–2 results are the only clear, statistically significant trends across both analyses. Analysis of the first 24 hours using 6-hour blocks of SI data showed that most of the improvement in insulin sensitivity level and variability seen between days 1 and 2 occurred during the first 12–18 hours of day 1.

Conclusions

Critically ill patients have significantly lower and more variable insulin sensitivity on day 1 than later in their ICU stay and particularly during the first 12 hours. This rapid improvement is likely due to the decline of counter-regulatory hormones as the acute phase of critical illness progresses. Clinically, these results suggest that while using TGC protocols with patients during their first few days of ICU stay, extra care should be afforded. Increased measurement frequency, higher target glycemic bands, conservative insulin dosing, and modulation of carbohydrate nutrition should be considered to minimize safely the outcome glycemic variability and reduce the risk of hypoglycemia.

Interface design and human factors considerations for model-based tight glycemic control in critical care

INTRODUCTION

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to implement. Model-based methods and computerized protocols offer the opportunity to improve TGC quality and compliance. This research presents an interface design to maximize compliance, minimize real and perceived clinical effort, and minimize error based on simple human factors and end user input.

METHOD

The graphical user interface (GUI) design is presented by construction based on a series of simple, short design criteria based on fundamental human factors engineering and includes the use of user feedback and focus groups comprising nursing staff at Christchurch Hospital. The overall design maximizes ease of use and minimizes (unnecessary) interaction and use. It is coupled to a protocol that allows nurse staff to select measurement intervals and thus self-manage workload.

RESULTS

The overall GUI design is presented and requires only one data entry point per intervention cycle. The design and main interface are heavily focused on the nurse end users who are the predominant users, while additional detailed and longitudinal data, which are of interest to doctors guiding overall patient care, are available via tabs. This dichotomy of needs and interests based on the end user's immediate focus and goals shows how interfaces must adapt to offer different information to multiple types of users.

CONCLUSIONS

The interface is designed to minimize real and perceived clinical effort, and ongoing pilot trials have reported high levels of acceptance. The overall design principles, approach, and testing methods are based on fundamental human factors principles designed to reduce user effort and error and are readily generalizable.

Data entry errors and design for model-based tight glycemic control in critical care

INTRODUCTION

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. Model-based methods and computerized protocols offer the opportunity to improve TGC quality but require human data entry, particularly of blood glucose (BG) values, which can be significantly prone to error. This study presents the design and optimization of data entry methods to minimize error for a computerized and model-based TGC method prior to pilot clinical trials.

METHOD

To minimize data entry error, two tests were carried out to optimize a method with errors less than the 5%-plus reported in other studies. Four initial methods were tested on 40 subjects in random order, and the best two were tested more rigorously on 34 subjects. The tests measured entry speed and accuracy. Errors were reported as corrected and uncorrected errors, with the sum comprising a total error rate. The first set of tests used randomly selected values, while the second set used the same values for all subjects to allow comparisons across users and direct assessment of the magnitude of errors. These research tests were approved by the University of Canterbury Ethics Committee.

RESULTS

The final data entry method tested reduced errors to less than 1-2%, a 60-80% reduction from reported values. The magnitude of errors was clinically significant and was typically by 10.0 mmol/liter or an order of magnitude but only for extreme values of BG < 2.0 mmol/liter or BG > 15.0-20.0 mmol/liter, both of which could be easily corrected with automated checking of extreme values for safety.

CONCLUSIONS

The data entry method selected significantly reduced data entry errors in the limited design tests presented, and is in use on a clinical pilot TGC study. The overall approach and testing methods are easily performed and generalizable to other applications and protocols.

Stochastic targeted (STAR) glycemic control: design, safety, and performance

INTRODUCTION

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible, model-based TGC approach that directly accounts for intra- and interpatient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) below 72 mg/dl. This research assesses the safety, efficacy, and clinical burden of a STAR TGC controller modulating both insulin and nutrition inputs in virtual and clinical pilot trials.

METHODS

Clinically validated virtual trials using data from 370 patients in the SPRINT (Specialized Relative Insulin and Nutrition Titration) study were used to design the STAR protocol and test its safety, performance, and required clinical effort prior to clinical pilot trials. Insulin and nutrition interventions were given every 1-3 h as chosen by the nurse to allow them to manage workload. Interventions were designed to maximize the overlap of the model-predicted (5-95(th) percentile) range of BG outcomes with the 72-117 mg/dl band and thus provide a maximum 5% risk of BG <72 mg/dl. Interventions were calculated using clinically validated computer models of human metabolism and its variability in critical illness. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was selected to maximize intake up to 100% of the American College of Chest Physicians/Society of Critical Care Medicine (ACCP/SCCM) goal (25 kg/kcal/h). Insulin doses were limited (8 U/h maximum), with limited increases based on current rate (0.5-2.0 U/h). Initial clinical pilot trials involved 3 patients covering ~450 h. Approval was granted by the Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee.

RESULTS

Virtual trials indicate that STAR provides similar glycemic control performance to SPRINT with 2-3 h (maximum) measurement intervals. Time in the 72-126 mg/dl and 72-145 mg/dl bands was equivalent for all controllers, indicating that glycemic outcome differences between protocols were only shifted in this range. Safety from hypoglycemia was improved. Importantly, STAR using 2-3 h (maximum) intervention intervals reduced clinical burden up to 30%, which is clinically very significant. Initial clinical trials showed glycemic performance, safety, and management of inter- and intrapatient variability that matched or exceeded the virtual trial results.

CONCLUSIONS

In virtual trials, STAR TGC provided tight control that maximized the likelihood of BG in a clinically specified glycemic band and reduced hypoglycemia with a maximum 5% (or lower) expected risk of light hypoglycemia (BG <72 mg/dl) via model-based management of intra- and interpatient variability. Clinical workload was self-managed and reduced up to 30% compared with SPRINT. Initial pilot clinical trials matched or exceeded these virtual results.

Pilot proof of concept clinical trials of Stochastic Targeted (STAR) glycemic control

Introduction

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has shown benefits but has been difficult to achieve consistently. STAR (Stochastic TARgeted) is a flexible, model-based TGC approach directly accounting for intra- and inter- patient variability with a stochastically derived maximum 5% risk of blood glucose (BG) < 4.0 mmol/L. This research assesses the safety, efficacy, and clinical burden of a STAR TGC controller modulating both insulin and nutrition inputs in pilot trials.

Methods

Seven patients covering 660 hours. Insulin and nutrition interventions are given 1-3 hourly as chosen by the nurse to allow them to manage workload. Interventions are calculated by using clinically validated computer models of human metabolism and its variability in critical illness to maximize the overlap of the model-predicted (5-95^th percentile) range of BG outcomes with the 4.0-6.5 mmol/L band while ensuring a maximum 5% risk of BG < 4.0 mmol/L. Carbohydrate intake (all sources) was selected to maximize intake up to 100% of SCCM/ACCP goal (25 kg/kcal/h). Maximum insulin doses and dose changes were limited for safety. Measurements were made with glucometers. Results are compared to those for the SPRINT study, which reduced mortality 25-40% for length of stay ≥3 days. Written informed consent was obtained for all patients, and approval was granted by the NZ Upper South A Regional Ethics Committee.

Results

A total of 402 measurements were taken over 660 hours (~14/day), because nurses showed a preference for 2-hourly measurements. Median [interquartile range, (IQR)] cohort BG was 5.9 mmol/L [5.2-6.8]. Overall, 63.2%, 75.9%, and 89.8% of measurements were in the 4.0-6.5, 4.0-7.0, and 4.0-8.0 mmol/L bands. There were no hypoglycemic events (BG < 2.2 mmol/L), and the minimum BG was 3.5 mmol/L with 4.5% < 4.4 mmol/L. Per patient, the median [IQR] hours of TGC was 92 h [29-113] using 53 [19-62] measurements (median, ~13/day). Median [IQR] results: BG, 5.9 mmol/L [5.8-6.3]; carbohydrate nutrition, 6.8 g/h [5.5-8.7] (~70% goal feed median); insulin, 2.5 U/h [0.1-5.1]. All patients achieved BG < 6.1 mmol/L. These results match or exceed SPRINT and clinical workload is reduced more than 20%.

Conclusions

STAR TGC modulating insulin and nutrition inputs provided very tight control with minimal variability by managing intra- and inter- patient variability. Performance and safety exceed that of SPRINT, which reduced mortality and cost in the Christchurch ICU. The use of glucometers did not appear to impact the quality of TGC. Finally, clinical workload was self-managed and reduced 20% compared with SPRINT.

Clinical detection and monitoring of acute pulmonary embolism: proof of concept of a computer-based method

Background

The diagnostic ability of computer-based methods for cardiovascular system (CVS) monitoring offers significant clinical potential. This research tests the clinical applicability of a newly improved computer-based method for the proof of concept case of tracking changes in important hemodynamic indices due to the influence acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

Methods

Hemodynamic measurements from a porcine model of APE were used to validate the method. Of these measurements, only those that are clinically available or inferable were used in to identify pig-specific computer models of the CVS, including the aortic and pulmonary artery pressure, stroke volume, heart rate, global end diastolic volume, and mitral and tricuspid valve closure times. Changes in the computer-derived parameters were analyzed and compared with experimental metrics and clinical indices to assess the clinical applicability of the technique and its ability to track the disease state.

Results

The subject-specific computer models accurately captured the increase in pulmonary resistance (R_pul), the main cardiovascular consequence of APE, in all five pigs trials, which related well (R² = 0.81) with the experimentally derived pulmonary vascular resistance. An increase in right ventricular contractility was identified, as expected, consistent with known reflex responses to APE. Furthermore, the modeled right ventricular expansion index (the ratio of right to left ventricular end diastolic volumes) closely followed the trends seen in the measured data (R² = 0.92) used for validation, with sharp increases seen in the metric for the two pigs in a near-death state. These results show that the pig-specific models are capable of tracking disease-dependent changes in pulmonary resistance (afterload), right ventricular contractility (inotropy), and ventricular loading (preload) during induced APE. Continuous, accurate estimation of these fundamental metrics of cardiovascular status can help to assist clinicians with diagnosis, monitoring, and therapy-based decisions in an intensive care environment. Furthermore, because the method only uses measurements already available in the ICU, it can be implemented with no added risk to the patient and little extra cost.

Conclusions

This computer-based monitoring method shows potential for real-time, continuous diagnosis and monitoring of acute CVS dysfunction in critically ill patients.

Physiological modeling, tight glycemic control, and the ICU clinician: what are models and how can they affect practice?

Critically ill patients are highly variable in their response to care and treatment. This variability and the search for improved outcomes have led to a significant increase in the use of protocolized care to reduce variability in care. However, protocolized care does not address the variability of outcome due to inter- and intra-patient variability, both in physiological state, and the response to disease and treatment. This lack of patient-specificity defines the opportunity for patient-specific approaches to diagnosis, care, and patient management, which are complementary to, and fit within, protocolized approaches.Computational models of human physiology offer the potential, with clinical data, to create patient-specific models that capture a patient's physiological status. Such models can provide new insights into patient condition by turning a series of sometimes confusing clinical data into a clear physiological picture. More directly, they can track patient-specific conditions and thus provide new means of diagnosis and opportunities for optimising therapy.This article presents the concept of model-based therapeutics, the use of computational models in clinical medicine and critical care in specific, as well as its potential clinical advantages, in a format designed for the clinical perspective. The review is presented in terms of a series of questions and answers. These aspects directly address questions concerning what makes a model, how it is made patient-specific, what it can be used for, its limitations and, importantly, what constitutes sufficient validation.To provide a concrete foundation, the concepts are presented broadly, but the details are given in terms of a specific case example. Specifically, tight glycemic control (TGC) is an area where inter- and intra-patient variability can dominate the quality of care control and care received from any given protocol. The overall review clearly shows the concept and significant clinical potential of using computational models in critical care medicine.

Tight glycemic control in critical care--the leading role of insulin sensitivity and patient variability: a review and model-based analysis

Tight glycemic control (TGC) has emerged as a major research focus in critical care due to its potential to simultaneously reduce both mortality and costs. However, repeating initial successful TGC trials that reduced mortality and other outcomes has proven difficult with more failures than successes. Hence, there has been growing debate over the necessity of TGC, its goals, the risk of severe hypoglycemia, and target cohorts. This paper provides a review of TGC via new analyses of data from several clinical trials, including SPRINT, Glucontrol and a recent NICU study. It thus provides both a review of the problem and major background factors driving it, as well as a novel model-based analysis designed to examine these dynamics from a new perspective. Using these clinical results and analysis, the goal is to develop new insights that shed greater light on the leading factors that make TGC difficult and inconsistent, as well as the requirements they thus impose on the design and implementation of TGC protocols. A model-based analysis of insulin sensitivity using data from three different critical care units, comprising over 75,000h of clinical data, is used to analyse variability in metabolic dynamics using a clinically validated model-based insulin sensitivity metric (S(I)). Variation in S(I) provides a new interpretation and explanation for the variable results seen (across cohorts and studies) in applying TGC. In particular, significant intra- and inter-patient variability in insulin resistance (1/S(I)) is seen be a major confounder that makes TGC difficult over diverse cohorts, yielding variable results over many published studies and protocols. Further factors that exacerbate this variability in glycemic outcome are found to include measurement frequency and whether a protocol is blind to carbohydrate administration.

A physiological Intensive Control Insulin-Nutrition-Glucose (ICING) model validated in critically ill patients

Intensive insulin therapy (IIT) and tight glycaemic control (TGC), particularly in intensive care unit (ICU), are the subjects of increasing and controversial debate in recent years. Model-based TGC has shown potential in delivering safe and tight glycaemic management, all the while limiting hypoglycaemia. A comprehensive, more physiologically relevant Intensive Control Insulin-Nutrition-Glucose (ICING) model is presented and validated using data from critically ill patients. Two existing glucose-insulin models are reviewed and formed the basis for the ICING model. Model limitations are discussed with respect to relevant physiology, pharmacodynamics and TGC practicality. Model identifiability issues are carefully considered for clinical settings. This article also contains significant reference to relevant physiology and clinical literature, as well as some references to the modeling efforts in this field. Identification of critical constant population parameters was performed in two stages, thus addressing model identifiability issues. Model predictive performance is the primary factor for optimizing population parameter values. The use of population values are necessary due to the limited clinical data available at the bedside in the clinical control scenario. Insulin sensitivity, S(I), the only dynamic, time-varying parameter, is identified hourly for each individual. All population parameters are justified physiologically and with respect to values reported in the clinical literature. A parameter sensitivity study confirms the validity of limiting time-varying parameters to S(I) only, as well as the choices for the population parameters. The ICING model achieves median fitting error of <1% over data from 173 patients (N=42,941 h in total) who received insulin while in the ICU and stayed for ≥ 72 h. Most importantly, the median per-patient 1-h ahead prediction error is a very low 2.80% [IQR 1.18, 6.41%]. It is significant that the 75th percentile prediction error is within the lower bound of typical glucometer measurement errors of 7-12%. These results confirm that the ICING model is suitable for developing model-based insulin therapies, and capable of delivering real-time model-based TGC with a very tight prediction error range. Finally, the detailed examination and discussion of issues surrounding model-based TGC and existing glucose-insulin models render this article a mini-review of the state of model-based TGC in critical care.

Development of blood glucose control for extremely premature infants

Extremely premature neonates often experience hyperglycaemia, which has been linked to increased mortality and worsened outcomes. Insulin therapy can assist in controlling blood glucose levels and promoting needed growth. This study presents the development of a model-based stochastic targeted controller designed to adapt insulin infusion rates to match the unique and changing metabolic state and control parameters of the neonate. Long-term usage of targeted BG control requires successfully forecasting variations in neonatal metabolic state, accounting for differences in clinical practices between units, and demonstrating robustness to errors that can occur in everyday clinical usage. Simulation studies were used to evaluate controller ability to target several common BG ranges and evaluate controller sensitivity to missed BG measurements and delays in control interventions on a virtual patient cohort of 25 infants developed from retrospective data. Initial clinical pilot trials indicated model performance matched expected performance from simulations. Stochastic targeted glucose control developed using validated patient-specific virtual trials can yield effective protocols for this cohort. Long-term trials show fundamental success, however clinical interface design appears as a critical factor to ensuring good compliance and thus good control.

Impact of glucocorticoids on insulin resistance in the critically ill

Glucocorticoids (GCs) have been shown to reduce insulin sensitivity in healthy individuals. Widely used in critical care to treat a variety of inflammatory and allergic disorders, they may inadvertently exacerbate stress-hyperglycaemia. This research uses model-based methods to quantify the reduction in insulin sensitivity from GCs in critically ill patients, and thus their impact on glycaemic control. A model-based measure of insulin sensitivity (S(I)) was used to quantify changes between two matched cohorts of 40 intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Patients in one cohort received GC treatment, while patients in the control cohort did not. All patients were admitted to the Christchurch hospital ICU between 2005 and 2007 and spent at least 24h on the SPRINT glycaemic control protocol. A 31% reduction in whole-cohort median insulin sensitivity was seen between the control cohort and patients receiving glucocorticoids with a median dose equivalent to 200mg/d of hydrocortisone per patient. Comparing percentile patients as a surrogate for matched patients, reductions in median insulin sensitivity of 20%, 25%, and 21% were observed for the 25th-, 50th- and 75th-percentile patients, respectively. These cohort and percentile patient reductions are less than or equivalent to the 30-62% reductions reported in healthy subjects especially when considering the fact that the GC doses in this study are 1.3-4.0 times larger than those in studies of healthy subjects. This reduced suppression of insulin sensitivity in critically ill patients could be a result of saturation due to already increased levels of catecholamines and cortisol common in critically illness. Virtual trial simulation showed that reductions in insulin sensitivity of 20-30% associated with glucocorticoid treatment in the ICU have limited impact on glycaemic control levels within the context of the SPRINT protocol.

Validation of a model-based virtual trials method for tight glycemic control in intensive care

BACKGROUND

In-silico virtual patients and trials offer significant advantages in cost, time and safety for designing effective tight glycemic control (TGC) protocols. However, no such method has fully validated the independence of virtual patients (or resulting clinical trial predictions) from the data used to create them. This study uses matched cohorts from a TGC clinical trial to validate virtual patients and in-silico virtual trial models and methods.

METHODS

Data from a 211 patient subset of the Glucontrol trial in Liege, Belgium. Glucontrol-A (N = 142) targeted 4.4-6.1 mmol/L and Glucontrol-B (N = 69) targeted 7.8-10.0 mmol/L. Cohorts were matched by APACHE II score, initial BG, age, weight, BMI and sex (p > 0.25). Virtual patients are created by fitting a clinically validated model to clinical data, yielding time varying insulin sensitivity profiles (SI(t)) that drives in-silico patients.Model fit and intra-patient (forward) prediction errors are used to validate individual in-silico virtual patients. Self-validation (tests A protocol on Group-A virtual patients; and B protocol on B virtual patients) and cross-validation (tests A protocol on Group-B virtual patients; and B protocol on A virtual patients) are used in comparison to clinical data to assess ability to predict clinical trial results.

RESULTS

Model fit errors were small (<0.25%) for all patients, indicating model fitness. Median forward prediction errors were: 4.3, 2.8 and 3.5% for Group-A, Group-B and Overall (A+B), indicating individual virtual patients were accurate representations of real patients. SI and its variability were similar between cohorts indicating they were metabolically similar.Self and cross validation results were within 1-10% of the clinical data for both Group-A and Group-B. Self-validation indicated clinically insignificant errors due to model and/or clinical compliance. Cross-validation clearly showed that virtual patients enabled by identified patient-specific SI(t) profiles can accurately predict the performance of independent and different TGC protocols.

CONCLUSIONS

This study fully validates these virtual patients and in silico virtual trial methods, and clearly shows they can accurately simulate, in advance, the clinical results of a TGC protocol, enabling rapid in silico protocol design and optimization. These outcomes provide the first rigorous validation of a virtual in-silico patient and virtual trials methodology.

What makes tight glycemic control tight? The impact of variability and nutrition in two clinical studies

INTRODUCTION

Tight glycemic control (TGC) remains controversial while successful, consistent, and effective protocols remain elusive. This research analyzes data from two TGC trials for root causes of the differences achieved in control and thus potentially in glycemic and other outcomes. The goal is to uncover aspects of successful TGC and delineate the impact of differences in cohorts.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted using records from a 211-patient subset of the GluControl trial taken in Liege, Belgium, and 393 patients from Specialized Relative Insulin Nutrition Titration (SPRINT) in New Zealand. Specialized Relative Insulin Nutrition Titration targeted 4.0-6.0 mmol/liter, similar to the GluControl A (N = 142) target of 4.4-6.1 mmol/liter. The GluControl B (N = 69) target was 7.8-10.0 mmol/liter. Cohorts were matched by Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score and percentage males (p > .35); however, the GluControl cohort was slightly older (p = .011). Overall cohort and per-patient comparisons (median, interquartile range) are shown for (a) glycemic levels achieved, (b) nutrition from carbohydrate (all sources), and (c) insulin dosing for this analysis. Intra- and interpatient variability were examined using clinically validated model-based insulin sensitivity metric and its hour-to-hour variation.

RESULTS

Cohort blood glucose were as follows: SPRINT, 5.7 (5.0-6.6) mmol/liter; GluControl A, 6.3 (5.3-7.6) mmol/liter; and GluControl B, 8.2 (6.9-9.4) mmol/liter. Insulin dosing was 3.0 (1.0-3.0), 1.5 (0.5-3), and 0.7 (0.0-1.7) U/h, respectively. Nutrition from carbohydrate (all sources) was 435.5 (259.2-539.1), 311.0 (0.0-933.1), and 622.1 (103.7-1036.8) kcal/day, respectively. Median per-patient results for blood glucose were 5.8 (5.3-6.4), 6.4 (5.9-6.9), and 8.3 (7.6-8.8) mmol/liter. Insulin doses were 3.0 (2.0-3.0), 1.5 (0.8-2.0), and 0.5 (0.0-1.0) U/h. Carbohydrate administration was 383.6 (207.4-497.7), 103.7 (0.0-829.4), and 207.4 (0.0-725.8) kcal/day. Overall, SPRINT gave approximately 2x more insulin with a 3-4x narrower, but generally non-zero, range of nutritional input to achieve equally TGC with less hypoglycemia. Specialized Relative Insulin Nutrition Titration had much less hypoglycemia (<2.2 mmol/liter), with 2% of patients, compared to GluControl A (7.7%) and GluControl B (2.9%), indicating much lower variability, with similar results for glucose levels <3.0 mmol/liter. Specialized Relative Insulin Nutrition Titration also had less hyperglycemia (>8.0 mmol/liter) than groups A and B. GluControl patients (A+B) had a approximately 2x wider range of insulin sensitivity than SPRINT. Hour-to-hour variation was similar. Hence GluControl had greater interpatient variability but similar intrapatient variability.

CONCLUSION

Protocols that dose insulin blind to carbohydrate administration can suffer greater outcome glycemic variability, even if average cohort glycemic targets are met. While the cohorts varied significantly in model-assessed insulin resistance, their variability was similar. Such significant intra- and interpatient variability is a further significant cause and marker of glycemic variability in TGC. The results strongly recommended that TGC protocols be explicitly designed to account for significant intra- and interpatient variability in insulin resistance, as well as specifying or having knowledge of carbohydrate administration to minimize variability in glycemic outcomes across diverse cohorts and/or centers.

Blood glucose prediction using stochastic modeling in neonatal intensive care

Hyperglycemia is a common metabolic problem in premature, low-birth-weight infants. Blood glucose homeostasis in this group is often disturbed by immaturity of endogenous regulatory systems and the stress of their condition in intensive care. A dynamic model capturing the fundamental dynamics of the glucose regulatory system provides a measure of insulin sensitivity (S(I)). Forecasting the most probable future S(I) can significantly enhance real-time glucose control by providing a clinically validated/proven level of confidence on the outcome of an intervention, and thus, increased safety against hypoglycemia. A 2-D kernel model of S(I) is fitted to 3567 h of identified, time-varying S(I) from retrospective clinical data of 25 neonatal patients with birth gestational age 23 to 28.9 weeks. Conditional probability estimates are used to determine S(I) probability intervals. A lag-2 stochastic model and adjustments of the variance estimator are used to explore the bias-variance tradeoff in the hour-to-hour variation of S(I). The model captured 62.6% and 93.4% of in-sample S(I) predictions within the (25th-75th) and (5th-95th) probability forecast intervals. This overconservative result is also present on the cross-validation cohorts and in the lag-2 model. Adjustments to the variance estimator found a reduction to 10%-50% of the original value provided optimal coverage with 54.7% and 90.9% in the (25th-75th) and (5th-95th) intervals. A stochastic model of S(I) provided conservative forecasts, which can add a layer of safety to real-time control. Adjusting the variance estimator provides a more accurate, cohort-specific stochastic model of S(I) dynamics in the neonate.

Progress in development of an artificial pancreas

This issue of Journal of Diabetes Science and Technology contains a collection of 12 original articles describing the latest advances in the development of algorithms for controlling insulin delivery in an artificial pancreas. Algorithms presented in this issue are affected by numerous quantifiable factors, including insulin pharmaco-kinetics, timing of meal carbohydrate appearance, meal size, amount of exercise, presence of stress, day-to-day variations in insulin sensitivity, insulin time-activity profiles, accuracy of glucose monitor calibration, metabolic profiles of both adults and neonates, and risks of hypoglycemia/hyperglycemia. These articles present theoretical advances in insulin delivery algorithms from modeled in silico patients, as well as clinical data from actual patients who have used closed loop systems. The novel approaches described in these articles are expected to bring us much closer to realization of a commercially available closed loop system for controlling glucose levels in patients with diabetes.