Hypoglycemia Detection and Carbohydrate Suggestion in an Artificial Pancreas

A strategy based on integer programming for optimal dosing and timing of preventive hypoglycemic treatments in type 1 diabetes management

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

One of the major problems related to type 1 diabetes (T1D) management is hypoglycemia, a condition characterized by low blood glucose levels and responsible for reduced quality of life and increased mortality. Fast-acting carbohydrates, also known as hypoglycemic treatments (HT), can counteract this event. In the literature, dosage and timing of HT are usually based on heuristic rules. In the present work, we propose an algorithm for mitigating hypoglycemia by suggesting preventive HT consumption, with dosages and timing determined by solving an optimization problem.

METHODS

By leveraging integer programming and linear inequality constraints, the algorithm can bind the amount of suggested carbohydrates to standardized quantities (i.e., those available in "off-the-shelf" HT) and the minimal distance between consecutive suggestions (to reduce the nuisance for patients).

RESULTS

The proposed method was tested in silico and compared with competitor algorithms using the UVa/Padova T1D simulator. At the cost of a slight increase of HT consumed per day, the proposed algorithm produces the lowest median and interquartile range of the time spent in hypoglycemia, with a statistically significant improvement over most competitor algorithms. Also, the average number of hypoglycemic events per day is reduced to 0 in median.

CONCLUSIONS

Thanks to its positive performances and reduced computational burden, the proposed algorithm could be a candidate tool for integration in a DSS aimed at improving T1D management.

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Improving Glycemic Control in Diabetes: Best Practices, Pitfalls, and Opportunities

OBJECTIVE

Artificial intelligence and machine learning are transforming many fields including medicine. In diabetes, robust biosensing technologies and automated insulin delivery therapies have created a substantial opportunity to improve health. While the number of manuscripts addressing the topic of applying machine learning to diabetes has grown in recent years, there has been a lack of consistency in the methods, metrics, and data used to train and evaluate these algorithms. This manuscript provides consensus guidelines for machine learning practitioners in the field of diabetes, including best practice recommended approaches and warnings about pitfalls to avoid.

METHODS

Algorithmic approaches are reviewed and benefits of different algorithms are discussed including importance of clinical accuracy, explainability, interpretability, and personalization. We review the most common features used in machine learning applications in diabetes glucose control and provide an open-source library of functions for calculating features, as well as a framework for specifying data sets using data sheets. A review of current data sets available for training algorithms is provided as well as an online repository of data sources.

SIGNIFICANCE

These consensus guidelines are designed to improve performance and translatability of new machine learning algorithms developed in the field of diabetes for engineers and data scientists.

Combined Use of Glucose-Specific Model Identification and Alarm Strategy Based on Prediction-Funnel to Improve Online Forecasting of Hypoglycemic Events

BACKGROUND

Advanced decision support systems for type 1 diabetes (T1D) management often embed prediction modules, which allow T1D people to take preventive actions to avoid critical episodes like hypoglycemia. Real-time prediction of blood glucose (BG) concentration relies on a subject-specific model of glucose-insulin dynamics. Model parameter identification is usually based on the mean square error (MSE) cost function, and the model is usually used to predict BG at a single prediction horizon (PH). Finally, a hypo-alarm is raised if the predicted BG crosses a threshold. This work aims to show that real-time hypoglycemia forecasting can be improved by leveraging: a glucose-specific mean square error (gMSE) cost function in model's parameters identification, and a "prediction-funnel," that is, confidence intervals (CIs) for multiple PHs, within the hypo-alarm-raising strategy.

METHODS

Autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous input (ARIMAX) models are selected to illustrate the proposed solution (use of gMSE and prediction-funnel) and its assessment against the conventional approach (MSE and single PH). The gMSE penalizes the model misfit in unsafe BG ranges (e.g., hypoglycemia), and the prediction-funnel allows raising an alarm by monitoring if the CIs cross a suitable threshold. The algorithms were evaluated by measuring precision (P), recall (R), F1-score (F1), false positive per day (FP/day), and time gain (TG) on a real dataset collected in 11 T1D individuals.

RESULTS

The best performance is achieved exploiting both the gMSE and the prediction-funnel: P = 65%, R = 88%, F1 = 75%, FP/day = 0.29, and mean TG = 15 minutes.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined use of a glucose-specific metric and an alarm-raising strategy based on the prediction-funnel allows achieving a more effective and reliable hypoglycemia prediction algorithm.

Modeling risk of hypoglycemia during and following physical activity in people with type 1 diabetes using explainable mixed-effects machine learning

BACKGROUND

Physical activity (PA) can cause increased hypoglycemia (glucose <70 mg/dL) risk in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). We modeled the probability of hypoglycemia during and up to 24 h following PA and identified key factors associated with hypoglycemia risk.

METHODS

We leveraged a free-living dataset from Tidepool comprised of glucose measurements, insulin doses, and PA data from 50 individuals with T1D (6448 sessions) for training and validating machine learning models. We also used data from the T1Dexi pilot study that contains glucose management and PA data from 20 individuals with T1D (139 session) for assessing the accuracy of the best performing model on an independent test dataset. We used mixed-effects logistic regression (MELR) and mixed-effects random forest (MERF) to model hypoglycemia risk around PA. We identified risk factors associated with hypoglycemia using odds ratio and partial dependence analysis for the MELR and MERF models, respectively. Prediction accuracy was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC).

RESULTS

The analysis identified risk factors significantly associated with hypoglycemia during and following PA in both MELR and MERF models including glucose and body exposure to insulin at the start of PA, low blood glucose index 24 h prior to PA, and PA intensity and timing. Both models showed overall hypoglycemia risk peaking 1 h after PA and again 5-10 h after PA, which is consistent with the hypoglycemia risk pattern observed in the training dataset. Time following PA impacted hypoglycemia risk differently across different PA types. Accuracy of hypoglycemia prediction using the fixed effects of the MERF model was highest when predicting hypoglycemia during the first hour following the start of PA (AUROCVALIDATION = 0.83 and AUROCTESTING = 0.86) and decreased when predicting hypoglycemia in the 24 h after PA (AUROCVALIDATION = 0.66 and AUROCTESTING = 0.68).

CONCLUSION

Hypoglycemia risk after the start of PA can be modeled using mixed-effects machine learning to identify key risk factors that may be used within decision support and insulin delivery systems. We published the population-level MERF model online for others to use.

Integrating Multiple Inputs Into an Artificial Pancreas System: Narrative Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic autoimmune disease in which a deficiency in insulin production impairs the glucose homeostasis of the body. Continuous subcutaneous infusion of insulin is a commonly used treatment method. Artificial pancreas systems (APS) use continuous glucose level monitoring and continuous subcutaneous infusion of insulin in a closed-loop mode incorporating a controller (or control algorithm). However, the operation of APS is challenging because of complexities arising during meals, exercise, stress, sleep, illnesses, glucose sensing and insulin action delays, and the cognitive burden. To overcome these challenges, options to augment APS through integration of additional inputs, creating multi-input APS (MAPS), are being investigated.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this survey is to identify and analyze input data, control architectures, and validation methods of MAPS to better understand the complexities and current state of such systems. This is expected to be valuable in developing improved systems to enhance the quality of life of people with T1D.

METHODS

A literature survey was conducted using the Scopus, PubMed, and IEEE Xplore databases for the period January 1, 2005, to February 10, 2020. On the basis of the search criteria, 1092 articles were initially shortlisted, of which 11 (1.01%) were selected for an in-depth narrative analysis. In addition, 6 clinical studies associated with the selected studies were also analyzed.

RESULTS

Signals such as heart rate, accelerometer readings, energy expenditure, and galvanic skin response captured by wearable devices were the most frequently used additional inputs. The use of invasive (blood or other body fluid analytes) inputs such as lactate and adrenaline were also simulated. These inputs were incorporated to switch the mode of the controller through activity detection, directly incorporated for decision-making and for the development of intermediate modules for the controller. The validation of the MAPS was carried out through the use of simulators based on different physiological models and clinical trials.

CONCLUSIONS

The integration of additional physiological signals with continuous glucose level monitoring has the potential to optimize glucose control in people with T1D through addressing the identified limitations of APS. Most of the identified additional inputs are related to wearable devices. The rapid growth in wearable technologies can be seen as a key motivator regarding MAPS. However, it is important to further evaluate the practical complexities and psychosocial aspects associated with such systems in real life.

HYPO-CHEAT's aggregated weekly visualisations of risk reduce real world hypoglycaemia

Background

Children with congenital hyperinsulinism (CHI) are at constant risk of hypoglycaemia with the attendant risk of brain injury. Current hypoglycaemia prevention methods centre on the prediction of a continuous glucose variable using machine learning (ML) processing of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM). This approach ignores repetitive and predictable behavioural factors and is dependent upon ongoing CGM. Thus, there has been very limited success in reducing real-world hypoglycaemia with a ML approach in any condition.

Objectives

We describe the development of HYPO-CHEAT (HYpoglycaemia-Prevention-thrOugh-CGM-HEatmap-Technology), which is designed to overcome these limitations by describing weekly hypoglycaemia risk. We tested HYPO-CHEAT in a real-world setting to evaluate change in hypoglycaemia.

Methods

HYPO-CHEAT aggregates individual CGM data to identify weekly hypoglycaemia patterns. These are visualised via a hypoglycaemia heatmap along with actionable interpretations and targets. The algorithm is iterative and reacts to anticipated changing patterns of hypoglycaemia. HYPO-CHEAT was compared with Dexcom Clarity's pattern identification and Facebook Prophet's forecasting algorithm using data from 10 children with CHI using CGM for 12 weeks. HYPO-CHEAT's efficacy was assessed via change in time below range (TBR).

Results

HYPO-CHEAT identified hypoglycaemia patterns in all patients. Dexcom Clarity identified no patterns. Predictions from Facebook Prophet were inconsistent and difficult to interpret. Importantly, the patterns identified by HYPO-CHEAT matched the lived experience of all patients, generating new and actionable understanding of the cause of hypos. This facilitated patients to significantly reduce their time in hypoglycaemia from 7.1% to 5.4% even when real-time CGM data was removed.

Conclusions

HYPO-CHEAT's personalised hypoglycaemia heatmaps reduced total and targeted TBR even when CGM was reblinded. HYPO-CHEAT offers a highly effective and immediately available personalised approach to prevent hypoglycaemia and empower patients to self-care.

Incorporating Glucose Variability into Glucose Forecasting Accuracy Assessment Using the New Glucose Variability Impact Index and the Prediction Consistency Index: An LSTM Case Example

BACKGROUND

In this work, we developed glucose forecasting algorithms trained and evaluated on a large dataset of free-living people with type 1 diabetes (T1D) using closed-loop (CL) and sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapies; and we demonstrate how glucose variability impacts accuracy. We introduce the glucose variability impact index (GVII) and the glucose prediction consistency index (GPCI) to assess the accuracy of prediction algorithms.

METHODS

A long-short-term-memory (LSTM) neural network was designed to predict glucose up to 60 minutes in the future using continuous glucose measurements and insulin data collected from 175 people with T1D (41,318 days) and evaluated on 75 people (11,333 days) from the Tidepool Big Data Donation Dataset. LSTM was compared with two naïve forecasting algorithms as well as Ridge linear regression and a random forest using root-mean-square error (RMSE). Parkes error grid quantified clinical accuracy. Regression analysis was used to derive the GVII and GPCI.

RESULTS

The LSTM had highest accuracy and best GVII and GPCI. RMSE for CL was 19.8 ± 3.2 and 33.2 ± 5.4 mg/dL for 30- and 60-minute prediction horizons, respectively. RMSE for SAP was 19.6 ± 3.8 and 33.1 ± 7.3 mg/dL for 30- and 60-minute prediction horizons, respectively; 99.6% and 97.6% of predictions were within zones A+B of the Parkes error grid at 30- and 60-minute prediction horizons, respectively. Glucose variability was strongly correlated with RMSE (R≥0.64, P < 0.001); GVII and GPCI demonstrated a means to compare algorithms across datasets with different glucose variability.

CONCLUSIONS

The LSTM model was accurate on a large real-world free-living dataset. Glucose variability should be considered when assessing prediction accuracy using indices such as GVII and GPCI.

Automated Insulin Delivery in Children with Type 1 Diabetes

The advent of insulin pump therapy marked an important milestone in diabetes treatment in the past few decades and has become the tipping point for the development of automated insulin delivery systems (AID). Standalone insulin pump systems have evolved over the course of years and have been replaced by modern high-technology insulin pumps with continuous glucose monitor interface allowing real-time insulin dose adjustment to optimize treatment. This review summarizes evidence from AID studies conducted in children with type 1 diabetes and discusses the outlook for future generation AID systems from a pediatric treatment perspective.

A Modular Safety System for an Insulin Dose Recommender: A Feasibility Study

BACKGROUND

Delivering insulin in type 1 diabetes is a challenging, and potentially risky, activity; hence the importance of including safety measures as part of any insulin dosing or recommender system. This work presents and clinically evaluates a modular safety system that is part of an intelligent insulin dose recommender platform developed within the EU-funded PEPPER project.

METHODS

The proposed safety system is composed of four modules which use a novel glucose forecasting algorithm. These modules are predictive glucose alerts and alarms; a predictive low-glucose basal insulin suspension module; an advanced rescue carbohydrate recommender for resolving hypoglycemia; and a personalized safety constraint applied to insulin recommendations. The technical feasibility of the proposed safety system was evaluated in a pilot study including eight adult subjects with type 1 diabetes on multiple daily injections over a duration of six weeks. Glycemic control and safety system functioning were compared between the two-weeks run-in period and the end point at eight weeks. A standard insulin bolus calculator was employed to recommend insulin doses.

RESULTS

Overall, glycemic control improved over the evaluated period. In particular, percentage time in the hypoglycemia range (<3.0 mmol/l) significantly decreased from 0.82% (0.05-4.79) at run-in to 0.33% (0.00-0.93) at endpoint (P = .02). This was associated with a significant increase in percentage time in target range (3.9-10.0 mmol/l) from 52.8% (38.3-61.5) to 61.3% (47.5-71.7) (P = .03). There was also a reduction in number of carbohydrate recommendations.

CONCLUSION

A safety system for an insulin dose recommender has been proven to be a viable solution to reduce the number of adverse events associated to glucose control in type 1 diabetes.

Online Glucose Prediction Using Computationally Efficient Sparse Kernel Filtering Algorithms in Type-1 Diabetes

Streaming data from continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) systems enable the recursive identification of models to improve estimation accuracy for effective predictive glycemic control in patients with type-1 diabetes. A drawback of conventional recursive identification techniques is the increase in computational requirements, which is a concern for online and real-time applications such as the artificial pancreas systems implemented on handheld devices and smartphones where computational resources and memory are limited. To improve predictions in such computationally constrained hardware settings, efficient adaptive kernel filtering algorithms are developed in this paper to characterize the nonlinear glycemic variability by employing a sparsification criterion based on the information theory to reduce the computation time and complexity of the kernel filters without adversely deteriorating the predictive performance. Furthermore, the adaptive kernel filtering algorithms are designed to be insensitive to abnormal CGM measurements, thus compensating for measurement noise and disturbances. As such, the sparsification-based real-time model update framework can adapt the prediction models to accurately characterize the time-varying and nonlinear dynamics of glycemic measurements. The proposed recursive kernel filtering algorithms leveraging sparsity for improved computational efficiency are applied to both in-silico and clinical subjects, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

A Real-Time Continuous Glucose Monitoring-Based Algorithm to Trigger Hypotreatments to Prevent/Mitigate Hypoglycemic Events

Background: The standard treatment for hypoglycemia recommended by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) suggests patients with diabetes to take small amounts of carbohydrates, the so-called hypotreatments (HTs), as soon as blood glucose concentration goes below 70 mg/dL. However, prevention, or at least mitigation, of hypoglycemic events could be achieved by triggering HTs ahead of time thanks to the use of the predictive capabilities of suitable real-time algorithms fed by continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) sensor data. Materials and Methods: The algorithm proposed in this article to trigger HTs for preventing forthcoming hypoglycemic events is based on the computation of the "dynamic risk", there is a nonlinear function combining current glycemia with its rate-of-change, both provided by CGM. A comparison of performance of the proposed algorithm against the ADA guidelines is made, in silico, on datasets of 100 virtual patients undergoing a single-meal experiment, with induced postmeal hypoglycemia, generated by the UVA/Padova type 1 diabetes simulator. Results: On noise-free CGM data, the proposed algorithm reduces the time spent in hypoglycemia, on median [25th-75th percentiles] from 36 [29-43] to 0 [0-11] min (P < 0.0001), with a concomitant decrease of the post-treatment rebound (PTR) in glucose concentration, on median [25th-75th percentiles] from 136 [121-148] to 121 [116-127] mg/dL (P < 0.0001). On noisy CGM data, there is still a reduction of both time spent in hypoglycemia from 41 [28-49] min to 25 [0-41] min (P < 0.0001) and PTR from 174 [146-189] mg/dL to 137 [123-151] mg/dL (P < 0.0001). Conclusions: The potentiality of the new algorithm in generating preventive HTs, which can allow significant reduction of hypoglycemia without concomitant increase of hyperglycemia, suggests its further development and test in silico, for example, simulating both insulin pump and multiple-daily-injection therapies.

Artificial Pancreas Systems and Physical Activity in Patients with Type 1 Diabetes: Challenges, Adopted Approaches, and Future Perspectives

Physical activity is important for patients living with type 1 diabetes (T1D) but limited by the challenges associated with physical activity induced glucose variability. Optimizing glycemic control without increasing the risk of hypoglycemia is still a hurdle despite many advances in insulin formulations, delivery methods, and continuous glucose monitoring systems. In this respect, the artificial pancreas (AP) system is a promising therapeutic option for a safer practice of physical activity in the context of T1D. It is important that healthcare professionals as well as patients acquire the necessary knowledge about how the AP system works, its limits, and how glucose control is regulated during physical activity. This review aims to examine the current state of knowledge on exercise-related glucose variations especially hypoglycemic risk in T1D and to discuss their effects on the use and development of AP systems. Though effective and highly promising, these systems warrant further research for an optimized use around exercise.

Predicting Quality of Overnight Glycaemic Control in Type 1 Diabetes Using Binary Classifiers

In type 1 diabetes management, maintaining nocturnal blood glucose within target range can be challenging. Although semi-automatic systems to modulate insulin pump delivery, such as low-glucose insulin suspension and the artificial pancreas, are starting to become a reality, their elevated cost and performance below user expectations is hindering their adoption. Hence, a decision support system that helps people with type 1 diabetes, on multiple daily injections or insulin pump therapy, to avoid undesirable overnight blood glucose fluctuations (hyper- or hypoglycaemic) is an attractive alternative. In this paper, we introduce a novel data-driven approach to predict the quality of overnight glycaemic control in people with type 1 diabetes by analyzing commonly gathered data during the day-time period (continuous glucose monitoring data, meal intake and insulin boluses). The proposed approach is able to predict whether overnight blood glucose concentrations are going to remain within or outside the target range, and therefore allows the user to take the appropriate preventive action (snack or change in basal insulin). For this purpose, a number of popular established machine learning algorithms for binary classification were evaluated and compared on a publicly available clinical dataset (i.e., OhioT1DM). Although there is no clearly superior classification algorithm, this study indicates that, by using commonly gathered data in type 1 diabetes management, it is possible to predict the quality of overnight glycaemic control with reasonable accuracy (AUC-ROC = 0.7).

Multivariable Artificial Pancreas for Various Exercise Types and Intensities

BACKGROUND

Exercise challenges people with type 1 diabetes in controlling their glucose concentration (GC). A multivariable adaptive artificial pancreas (MAAP) may lessen the burden.

METHODS

The MAAP operates without any user input and computes insulin based on continuous glucose monitor and physical activity signals. To analyze performance, 18 60-h closed-loop experiments with 96 exercise sessions with three different protocols were completed. Each day, the subjects completed one resistance and one treadmill exercise (moderate continuous training [MCT] or high-intensity interval training [HIIT]). The primary outcome is time spent in each glycemic range during the exercise + recovery period. Secondary measures include average GC and average change in GC during each exercise modality.

RESULTS

The GC during exercise + recovery periods were within the euglycemic range (70-180 mg/dL) for 69.9% of the time and within a safe glycemic range for exercise (70-250 mg/dL) for 93.0% of the time. The exercise sessions are defined to begin 30 min before the start of exercise and end 2 h after start of exercise. The GC were within the severe hypoglycemia (<55 mg/dL), moderate hypoglycemia (55-70 mg/dL), moderate hyperglycemia (180-250 mg/dL), and severe hyperglycemia (>250 mg/dL) for 0.9%, 1.3%, 23.1%, and 4.8% of the time, respectively. The average GC decline during exercise differed with exercise type (P = 0.0097) with a significant difference between the MCT and resistance (P = 0.0075). To prevent large GC decreases leading to hypoglycemia, MAAP recommended carbohydrates in 59% of MCT, 50% of HIIT, and 39% of resistance sessions.

CONCLUSIONS

A consistent GC decline occurred in exercise and recovery periods, which differed with exercise type. The average GC at the start of exercise was above target (185.5 ± 56.6 mg/dL for MCT, 166.9 ± 61.9 mg/dL for resistance training, and 171.7 ± 41.4 mg/dL HIIT), making a small decrease desirable. Hypoglycemic events occurred in 14.6% of exercise sessions and represented only 2.22% of the exercise and recovery period.

Incorporating Unannounced Meals and Exercise in Adaptive Learning of Personalized Models for Multivariable Artificial Pancreas Systems

BACKGROUND

Despite the recent advancements in the modeling of glycemic dynamics for type 1 diabetes mellitus, automatically considering unannounced meals and exercise without manual user inputs remains challenging.

METHOD

An adaptive model identification technique that incorporates exercise information and estimates of the effects of unannounced meals obtained automatically without user input is proposed in this work. The effects of the unknown consumed carbohydrates are estimated using an individualized unscented Kalman filtering algorithm employing an augmented glucose-insulin dynamic model, and exercise information is acquired from noninvasive physiological measurements. The additional information on meals and exercise is incorporated with personalized estimates of plasma insulin concentration and glucose measurement data in an adaptive model identification algorithm.

RESULTS

The efficacy of the proposed personalized and adaptive modeling algorithm is demonstrated using clinical data involving closed-loop experiments of the artificial pancreas system, and the results demonstrate accurate glycemic modeling with the average root-mean-square error (mean absolute error) of 25.50 mg/dL (18.18 mg/dL) for six-step (30 minutes ahead) predictions.

CONCLUSIONS

The approach presented is able to identify reliable time-varying individualized glucose-insulin models.

Automatic Detection and Estimation of Unannounced Meals for Multivariable Artificial Pancreas System

BACKGROUND

Automatically attenuating the postprandial rise in the blood glucose concentration without manual meal announcement is a significant challenge for artificial pancreas (AP) systems. In this study, a meal module is proposed to detect the consumption of a meal and to estimate the amount of carbohydrate (CHO) intake.

METHODS

The meals are detected based on qualitative variables describing variation of continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) readings. The CHO content of the meals/snacks is estimated by a fuzzy system using CGM and subcutaneous insulin delivery data. The meal bolus amount is computed according to the patient's insulin to CHO ratio. Integration of the meal module into a multivariable AP system allows revision of estimated CHO based on knowledge about physical activity, sleep, and the risk of hypoglycemia before the final decision for a meal bolus is made.

RESULTS

The algorithm is evaluated by using 117 meals/snacks in retrospective data from 11 subjects with type 1 diabetes. Sensitivity, defined as the percentage of correctly detected meals and snacks, is 93.5% for meals and 68.0% for snacks. The percentage of false positives, defined as the proportion of false detections relative to the total number of detected meals and snacks, is 20.8%.

CONCLUSIONS

Integration of a meal detection module in an AP system is a further step toward an automated AP without manual entries. Detection of a consumed meal/snack and infusion of insulin boluses using an estimate of CHO enables the AP system to automatically prevent postprandial hyperglycemia.

Model-Fusion-Based Online Glucose Concentration Predictions in People with Type 1 Diabetes

Accurate predictions of glucose concentrations are necessary to develop an artificial pancreas (AP) system for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). In this work, a novel glucose forecasting paradigm based on a model fusion strategy is developed to accurately characterize the variability and transient dynamics of glycemic measurements. To this end, four different adaptive filters and a fusion mechanism are proposed for use in the online prediction of future glucose trajectories. The filter fusion mechanism is developed based on various prediction performance indexes to guide the overall output of the forecasting paradigm. The efficiency of the proposed model fusion based forecasting method is evaluated using simulated and clinical datasets, and the results demonstrate the capability and prediction accuracy of the data-based fusion filters, especially in the case of limited data availability. The model fusion framework may be used in the development of an AP system for glucose regulation in patients with T1D.

Multivariable Adaptive Artificial Pancreas System in Type 1 Diabetes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The review summarizes the current state of the artificial pancreas (AP) systems and introduces various new modules that should be included in future AP systems.

RECENT FINDINGS

A fully automated AP must be able to detect and mitigate the effects of meals, exercise, stress and sleep on blood glucose concentrations. This can only be achieved by using a multivariable approach that leverages information from wearable devices that provide real-time streaming data about various physiological variables that indicate imminent changes in blood glucose concentrations caused by meals, exercise, stress and sleep. The development of a fully automated AP will necessitate the design of multivariable and adaptive systems that use information from wearable devices in addition to glucose sensors and modify the models used in their model-predictive alarm and control systems to adapt to the changes in the metabolic state of the user. These AP systems will also integrate modules for controller performance assessment, fault detection and diagnosis, machine learning and classification to interpret various signals and achieve fault-tolerant control. Advances in wearable devices, computational power, and safe and secure communications are enabling the development of fully automated multivariable AP systems.