Trends in age- and sex-specific prevalence and incidence of cardiovascular disease in Western Australia

Global Trends in Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease

PURPOSE

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality, affecting over 523 million people globally. Atherosclerotic diseases, particularly ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, are the primary mediators of CVD burden and trends, with half of CVD deaths attributed to IHD, and another quarter to ischemic stroke. The aim of this review was to provide an overview of world-wide trends in the burden of atherosclerotic CVD.

METHODS

A literature review of published studies reporting regional or global trends or burden of CVD was undertaken, with a specific focus on atherosclerotic-mediated CVDs.

FINDINGS

While long-term trends in age-standardized rates of CVD mortality and incidence indicate substantial declines in disease burden, the impact of population growth and ageing has contributed to a continued increase in the absolute number of people living with CVD. Additionally, when data are restricted to the most recent decade, there are indications that even declines in age-standardized CVD rates may have attenuated. Trends are also heterogeneous across countries and regions, with a relative increase in CVD burden in developing countries and differing trends within countries. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in substantial short-term reductions in hospitalization rates for major atherosclerotic CVDs including acute coronary syndromes and heart failure in some countries.

IMPLICATIONS

Recent attenuation of declines in atherosclerotic CVDs with increasing absolute burden has significant implications for health systems and resource availability, with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on longer-term trends in CVD yet to be clearly established.

Temporal trends in chronic complications of diabetes by sex in community-based people with type 2 diabetes: the Fremantle Diabetes Study

BACKGROUND

Whether recent reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and mortality in type 2 diabetes apply equally to both sexes is largely unknown. The aim of this study was to characterize temporal changes in CVD events and related outcomes in community-based male and female Australian adults with type 2 diabetes or without known diabetes.

METHODS

Participants from the longitudinal observational Fremantle Diabetes Study Phases I (FDS1; n = 1291 recruited 1993-1996) and II (FDS2; n = 1509 recruited 2008-2011) and four age-, sex- and postcode-matched individuals without diabetes (FDS1 n = 5159; FDS2 n = 6036) were followed for first myocardial infarction, stroke, heart failure hospitalization, lower extremity amputation, CVD death and all-cause mortality. Five-year incidence rates (IRs) for males versus females in FDS1 and FDS2 were calculated, and IR ratios (IRRs) derived.

RESULTS

The FD1 and FDS2 participants were of mean age 64.0 and 65.4 years, respectively, and 48.7% and 51.8% were males. For type 2 diabetes, IRRs for all endpoints were 11-62% lower in FDS2 than FDS1 for both sexes. For participants without diabetes, IRRs were 8-56% lower in FDS2 versus FDS1 apart from stroke in females (non-significantly 41% higher). IRRs for males versus females across FDS phases were not significantly different for participants with type 2 diabetes or those without diabetes (P-values for male * FDS2 interaction ≥ 0.0.083 adjusted for age). For risk factors in participants with type 2 diabetes, greater improvements between FDS1 and FDS2 in smoking rates in males were offset by a greater reduction in systolic blood pressure in females.

CONCLUSIONS

The incidence of chronic complications in Australians with type 2 diabetes and without diabetes has fallen similarly in both sexes over recent decades, consistent with comparably improved overall CVD risk factor management.

Large Burden of Stroke Incidence in People with Cardiac Disease: A Linked Data Cohort Study

Purpose

People with cardiac disease have 2-4 times greater risk of stroke than the general population. We measured stroke incidence in people with coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) or valvular heart disease (VHD).

Methods

We used a person-linked hospitalization/mortality dataset to identify all people hospitalized with CHD, AF or VHD (1985-2017), and stratified them as pre-existing (hospitalized 1985-2012 and alive at October 31, 2012) or new (first-ever cardiac hospitalization in the five-year study period, 2012-2017). We identified first-ever strokes occurring from 2012 to 2017 in patients aged 20-94 years and calculated age-specific and age-standardized rates (ASR) for each cardiac cohort.

Results

Of the 175,560 people in the cohort, most had CHD (69.9%); 16.3% had multiple cardiac conditions. From 2012-17, 5871 first-ever strokes occurred. ASRs were greater in females than males in single and multiple condition cardiac groups, largely driven by rates in females aged ≥75 years, with stroke incidence in this age group being at least 20% greater in females than males in each cardiac subgroup. In females aged 20-54 years, stroke incidence was 4.9-fold greater in those with multiple versus single cardiac conditions. This differential declined with increasing age. Non-fatal stroke incidence was greater than fatal stroke in all age groups except in the 85-94 age group. Incidence rate ratios were up to 2-fold larger in new versus pre-existing cardiac disease.

Conclusion

Stroke incidence in people with cardiac disease is substantial, with older females, and younger patients with multiple cardiac conditions, at elevated risk. These patients should be specifically targeted for evidence-based management to minimize the burden of stroke.

Evolution of non-fatal burden estimates for cardiovascular disease in Australia: a comparison of national and state-wide methodology of burden of disease

Objective Burden of disease studies measure the impact of disease at the population level;however, methods and data sources for estimates of prevalence vary. Using a selection of cardiovascular diseases, we aimed to describe the implications of using different disease models and linked administrative data on prevalence estimation within three Australian burden of disease studies. Methods Three different methods (A = 2011 Australian Burden of Disease Study; B = 2015 Australian Burden of Disease Study; C = 2015 Western Australian Burden of Disease Study), which used linked data, were used to compare prevalence estimates of stroke, aortic aneurysm, rheumatic valvular heart disease (VHD) and non-rheumatic VHD. We applied these methods to 2015 Western Australian data, and calculated crude overall and age-specific prevalence for each condition. Results Overall, Method C produced estimates of cardiovascular prevalence that were lower than the other methods, excluding non-rheumatic VHD. Prevalence of acute and chronic stroke was up to one-third higher in Method A and B compared to Method C. Aortic aneurysms had the largest change in prevalence, with Method A producing an eight-fold higher estimate compared to Method C, but Method B was 10-20% lower. Estimates of VHD varied dramatically, with an up to six-fold change in prevalence in Method C due to substantial changes to disease models and the use of linked data. Conclusions Prevalence estimates require the best available data sources, updated disease models and constant review to inform government policy and health reform. Availability of nation-wide linked data will markedly improve future burden estimates.

One-year readmission and mortality following ischaemic stroke by diabetes status, sex, and socioeconomic disadvantage: An analysis of 27,802 strokes from 2012 to 2017

OBJECTIVE

We estimated the 1-year incidence of readmission to hospital and 1-year all-cause mortality following ischaemic stroke (IS), by diabetes status, sex, and socioeconomic disadvantage.

METHODS

This study included all individuals aged ≥30 years who were discharged from hospital following an IS between July 2012 and June 2017 in Victoria, Australia (n = 25,421). Individuals were followed from discharge until readmission (for all-causes, cardiovascular readmission, and readmission for IS) or death, censoring at 1-year of follow-up.

RESULTS

The 1-year cumulative incidence of all-cause readmission following an IS was 56.1% (95% CI: 55.5-56.7); 24% of first all-cause admission were attributed to cardiovascular disease. People with diabetes were at an excess risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and IS readmission following an IS (adjusted sub-HRs: 1.13 [95% CI: 1.09-1.17], 1.14 [1.07-1.21], and 1.17 [1.06-1.29], for people with vs. without diabetes, respectively) and 1-year mortality (adjusted HR: 1.11 [1.03-1.19]). There was no significant difference between men and women in all-cause and cardiovascular readmission risk, while women were at higher risk of IS readmission (sub-HR: 1.10 [1.01-1.21] for women vs. men) and mortality (HR: 1.12 [1.05-1.20]). There was no relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and risk of cardiovascular or IS readmission, while 1-year mortality risk did increase with increasing socioeconomic disadvantage (HR for most vs. least disadvantaged quintile: 1.15 [1.03-1.27]; p_trend = 0.006), and all-cause readmission risk decreased (sub-HR: 0.94 [0.90-0.99]; p_trend = 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

There is a high risk of readmission following IS. Decreasing the readmission rate will require more complex interventions than solely improving post-discharge cardiovascular management.

Traditional and novel cardiometabolic risk markers across strata of body mass index in young adults

BACKGROUND

Cardiometabolic risk increases with increasing body mass index (BMI). The exact mechanism is poorly understood, and traditional risk assessment of young adults with obesity has shown to be ineffective. Greater knowledge about potential new effective biomarkers and the use of advanced cardiac imaging for risk assessment in young adults is, therefore, necessary.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to explore traditional and novel cardiometabolic risk markers across strata of BMI in young adults.

METHODS

Participants (N = 264, 50% women, age 28-30 years) were invited from an ongoing cohort study, based on BMI and sex. BMI-strata were: BMI <25, 25-30, >30 kg/m2, representing normal weight (NW), overweight (OW), and obesity (OB). Participants underwent cardiac computed tomography to detect coronary artery calcification, measures of body composition, blood pressure measurements, and a comprehensive panel of circulating cardiometabolic risk markers.

RESULTS

No significant coronary artery calcifications were detected in this study. Minor differences in median levels of traditional risk markers were detected across BMI-strata, for example, total cholesterol (men- NW: 4.7 (4.3-5.1) and OB: 4.8 (4.2-5.6) mmol/L, p = 0.58; women- NW: 4.3 (3.9-4.8) and OB: 4.7 (4.2-5.3) mmol/L, p = 0.016), whereas substantial differences were seen in markers of inflammation and glucose metabolism, for example, high sensitive CRP (men- NW: 0.6 (0.3-1.1) and OB: 2.8 (1.5-4.0) mg/L, p < 0.001; women- NW: 0.7 (0.3-1.7) and OB: 4.0 (2.2-7.8) mg/L, p < 0.001) and insulin (men- NW: 47.0 (35.0-59.0) and OB: 113.5 (72.0-151.0) pmol/L, p < 0.001; women- NW: 44.0 (35.0-60.0) and OB: 84.5 (60.0-126.0) pmol/L, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

In young adults, obesity is associated with an early onset insulin resistance and inflammatory response prior to development of coronary artery calcification and deterioration of lipid profiles.

Epidemiological trends in mortality, event rates and case fatality of acute myocardial infarction from 2004 to 2015: results from the KORA MI registry

AIM

This study examines epidemiological trends of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in Germany from 2004-2015 across different age groups, using data of the population-based KORA myocardial infarction registry.

METHODS

Annual age-standardised, age-group- and sex-specific mortality and event rates (incident and recurrent) per 100,000 population as well as 28-day case fatality were calculated from all registered cases of AMI and coronary heart disease deaths in 25-74-year-olds from 2004-2015 and 75-84-year-olds from 2009-2015. Average annual percentage changes (AAPC) were calculated by joinpoint regression.

RESULTS

Mortality rates declined considerably among the elderly (75-84 years), in men by -6.0% annually, due to declines of case fatality by -3.0% and incidence rate by 3.4% and in women by -10.0%, driven by declines in incidence (-9.1%) and recurrence rate (-4.9%). Significant mortality declines also occurred in males, 65-74 years of age (AAPC -3.8%). Among the age groups 25-54 years and 55-64 years, there was no substantial decline in mortality, event rates or case fatality except for a decline of incidence rate in 55-64-year-old men (AAPC -1.8%).

CONCLUSION

Inhomogeneous AMI trends across age-groups indicate progress in prevention and treatment for the population >64 years, while among <55-year-olds, we found no significant trend in AMI morbidity and mortality.KEY MESSAGESAge standardised AMI mortality continued to decline from 2009 to 2015 in the study region.Declines in AMI mortality were driven by declines in event rates (both incidence and recurrence rates) and case fatality.AMI trends were inconsistent across different age groups with the strongest declines in mortality and event rates among the elderly population (75-84 years of age).

Health status and healthcare trends of individuals accessing Australian aged care programmes over a decade: the Registry of Senior Australians historical cohort

Background

Understanding the health profile, service and medicine use of Australians in the aged care sector will help inform appropriate service provision for our ageing population.

Aims

To examine the 2006–2015 trends in (i) comorbidities and frailty of individuals accessing aged care, and (ii) health services, medicine use and mortality after entry into long‐term care.

Methods

Cross‐sectional and population‐based trend analyses were conducted using the Registry of Senior Australians.

Results

From 2006 to 2015, 509 944 individuals accessed permanent residential care, 206 394 home care, 283 014 respite and 124 943 transition care. Over this time, the proportion of individuals accessing permanent residential care with high frailty scores (≥0.3) increased (19.7–49.7%), as did the proportion with 5–9 comorbidities (46.4–54.5%), with similar trends observed for those accessing other services. The median number of medicines dispensed in the year after entering permanent residential care increased from 9 (interquartile range (IQR) 6–12) to 10 (IQR 7–14), while remaining stable in home care (2006: 9, IQR 5–12, 2015: 9, IQR 6–13). Short‐term (within 100 days) mortality in those accessing permanent care was higher in 2006 (15.6%, 95% CI 15.2–16.0) than 2015 (14.6%, 95% CI 14.3–14.9). Longer term (101–1095 days, 2006: 44.3%, 95% CI 43.7–45.0, 2015: 46.4%, 95% CI 45.8–46.9) mortality was higher in 2015 compared to 2006. Mortality in individuals accessing home care did not change.

Conclusion

The health of older Australians accessing aged care programmes has declined while frailty increased, with an increasing use of medicine and worse long‐term mortality in some. Funding and care models need to adapt to this changing profile.

Temporal trends in hyperuricaemia among adults in Wuhan city, China, from 2010 to 2019: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

Hyperuricaemia is a risk factor for gout attacks, kidney damage and cardiovascular events. Evidence on the trends in hyperuricaemia burden in Wuhan city, China, was limited. The present study aimed to estimate the prevalence of and a decade trend in hyperuricaemia in Wuhan city.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING

Health Management Center of Tongji Hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 732 527 adult participants from the general population who took a physical examination in the Health Management Center between 2010 and 2019.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Prevalence of and trends in hyperuricaemia.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence of hyperuricaemia was 25.8% (36.6% in men and 10.8% in women) in 2019. The hyperuricaemia prevalence and serum uric acid (SUA) levels were significantly higher in young men, old women and participants with obesity, hypertension, diabetes or dyslipidaemia (p<0.05). SUA levels among men and women gradually increased from 358.0 (313.0-407.0) umol/L and 250.0 (217.0-288.0) umol/L in 2010 to 388.0 (338.0-445.2) umol/L and 270.0 (233.0-314.0) umol/L in 2019, respectively, p<0.05. From 2010 through 2019, hyperuricaemia prevalence significantly increased in each age category and it increased most sharply among participants aged 20-39 years. The multivariate-adjusted prevalence among men was 26.1% (25.4% to 26.7%) in 2010, 30.9% (30.4% to 31.4%) in 2015 and 34.4% (34.1% to 34.8%) in 2019, while among women it was 5.8% (5.4% to 6.2%) in 2010, 7.2% (6.9% to 7.5%) in 2015 and 10.1% (9.9% to 10.3%) in 2019.

CONCLUSIONS

Hyperuricaemia was highly prevalent among adults in Wuhan city. More attention should be paid to the increasing burden of hyperuricaemia, especially for those at higher risks.

A systematic review of trends in all-cause mortality among people with diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

We examined all-cause mortality trends in people with diabetes and compared them with trends among people without diabetes.

METHODS

MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL databases were searched for observational studies published from 1980 to 2019 reporting all-cause mortality rates across ≥2 time periods in people with diabetes. Mortality trends were examined by ethnicity, age and sex within comparable calendar periods.

RESULTS

Of 30,295 abstracts screened, 35 studies were included, providing data on 69 separate ethnic-specific or sex-specific populations with diabetes since 1970. Overall, 43% (3/7), 53% (10/19) and 74% (32/43) of the populations studied had decreasing trends in all-cause mortality rates in people with diabetes in 1970-1989, 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, respectively. In 1990-1999 and 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 75% (9/12) and 78% (28/36) of predominantly Europid populations, and in 14% (1/7) and 57% (4/7) of non-Europid populations, respectively. In 2000-2016, mortality rates declined in 33% (4/12), 65% (11/17), 88% (7/8) and 76% (16/21) of populations aged <40, 40-54, 55-69 and ≥70 years, respectively. Among the 33 populations with separate mortality data for those with and without diabetes, 60% (6/10) of the populations with diabetes in 1990-1999 and 58% (11/19) in 2000-2016 had an annual reduction in mortality rates that was similar to or greater than in those without diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

All-cause mortality has declined in the majority of predominantly Europid populations with diabetes since 2000, and the magnitude of annual mortality reduction matched or exceeded that observed in people without diabetes in nearly 60% of populations. Patterns of diabetes mortality remain uncertain in younger age groups and non-Europid populations.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration ID CRD42019095974. Graphical abstract.

Population-based stroke surveillance using big data: state-wide epidemiological trends in admissions and mortality in New South Wales, Australia

OBJECTIVES

Epidemiological trends for major causes of death and disability, such as stroke, may be monitored using administrative data to guide public health initiatives and service delivery.

METHODS

We calculated admissions rates for ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage and subarachnoid haemorrhage between 1 January 2005 and December 31^st, 2013 and rates of 30-day mortality and 365-day mortality in 30-day survivors to 31 December 2014 for patients aged 15 years or older from New South Wales, Australia. Annual Average Percentage Change in rates was estimated using negative binomial regression.

RESULTS

Of 81,703 eligible admissions, 64,047 (78.4%) were ischaemic strokes and 13,302 (16.3%) and 4,778 (5.8%) were intracerebral and subarachnoid haemorrhages, respectively. Intracerebral haemorrhage admissions significantly declined by an average of 2.2% annually (95% Confidence Interval = -3.5% to -0.9%) (p < 0.001). Thirty-day mortality rates significantly declined for ischaemic stroke (Average Percentage Change -2.9%, 95% Confidence Interval = -5.2% to -1.0%) (p = 0.004) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (Average Percentage Change = -2.6%, 95% Confidence Interval = -4.8% to -0.2%) (p = 0.04). Mortality at 365-days amongst 30-day survivors of ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage was stable over time and increased in subarachnoid haemorrhage (Annual Percentage Change 6.2%, 95% Confidence Interval = -0.1% to 12.8%), although not significantly (p = 0.05).

DISCUSSION

Improved prevention may have underpinned declining intracerebral haemorrhage rates while survival gains suggest that innovations in care are being successfully translated. Mortality in patients surviving the acute period is unchanged and may be increasing for subarachnoid haemorrhage warranting investment in post-discharge care and secondary prevention.

Early-Life Famine Exposure and Risk of Cardiovascular Diseases in Later Life: Findings From the REACTION Study

Background

Previous studies reported that early‐life exposure to undernutrition is associated with the risk of diabetes mellitus and metabolic syndrome in adulthood, but the association with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) later in life remains unclear. The current study aimed to investigate whether exposure to Chinese famine in early life is associated with risk of CVD.

Methods and Results

We used data from REACTION (Risk Evaluation of Cancers in Chinese Diabetic Individuals: A Longitudinal Study), which recruited a total of 259 657 community‐dwelling adults aged 40 years or older from 25 centers across mainland China between 2011 and 2012. Compared with the nonexposed participants, those who had been exposed to famine in early life had a significantly increased risk of total CVD, myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary heart disease. In the multivariable‐adjusted logistic regression model, the odds ratios (95% CI) for total CVD, myocardial infarction, stroke, and coronary heart disease in fetal famine exposure were 1.35 (1.20–1.52), 1.59 (1.08–2.35), 1.40 (1.11–1.78), and 1.44 (1.26–1.65), respectively; those odds ratios in childhood famine exposure were 1.59 (1.40–1.81), 2.20 (1.52–3.20), 1.82 (1.45–2.28), and 1.80 (1.56–2.09), respectively; and those in adolescent famine exposure were 1.52 (1.27–1.81), 2.07 (1.28–3.35), 1.92 (1.42–2.58), and 1.83 (1.50–2.24), respectively. The main finding of our study is that, compared with those who lived in the less severely affected famine area, individuals in the severely affected famine area had significantly increased risk of total CVD in all 3 exposed groups.

Conclusions

Early‐life exposure to undernutrition is associated with significantly increased risk of CVD in later life, especially among those who were in the severely affected famine area.

Increased risk of developing peripheral artery disease in hemodialysis patients receiving statin treatments: a population-based cohort study in Taiwan

Background

Few investigations have evaluated the influences on peripheral arterial disease (PAD) risk of statin treatment in hemodialysis (HD) subjects with hyperlipidemia (HL).

Methods

From the National Health Insurance Research Dataset, we identified 3658 HD patients with statin therapy for HL as the statin cohort, and then selected, by 1:1 propensity score matching, 3658 HD patients with HL but without statin use as the nonstatin cohort in 2000–07. The cohorts were followed through until the end of 2011. We used Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to assess the hazard ratio (HR) of PAD development.

Results

The average follow-up period was 4.18 years; the incident PAD risk was 1.35-fold greater in statin users than in nonusers (16.87 versus 12.46/1000 person-years), with an adjusted HR (aHR) of 1.34 for PAD [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12–1.62]. The PAD risk increases were significant for patients receiving fluvastatin (aHR 1.88; 95% CI 1.12–3.14) and atorvastatin (aHR 1.60; 95% CI 1.24–2.08). The risk increased with higher annual average statin dosage (P for trend &lt;0.0001); the risk was higher for those receiving moderate-intensity statin treatment. The sensitivity test revealed similar findings.

Conclusions

HD patients with HL on statin medication were at increased PAD risk, which increased with cumulative statin dosage. Thorough considerations are needed before prescribing statins to HD patients.

Comparative trends in coronary heart disease subgroup hospitalisation rates in England and Australia

Background

Population-based coronary heart disease (CHD) studies have focused on myocardial infarction (MI) with limited data on trends across the spectrum of CHD. We investigated trends in hospitalisation rates for acute and chronic CHD subgroups in England and Australia from 1996 to 2013.

Methods

CHD hospitalisations for individuals aged 35–84 years were identified from electronic hospital data from 1996 to 2013 for England and Australia and from the Oxford Region and Western Australia. CHD subgroups identified were acute coronary syndromes (ACS) (MI and unstable angina) and chronic CHD (stable angina and ‘other CHD’). We calculated age-standardised and age-specific rates and estimated annual changes (95% CI) from age-adjusted Poisson regression.

Results

From 1996 to 2013, there were 4.9 million CHD hospitalisations in England and 2.6 million in Australia (67% men). From 1996 to 2003, there was between-country variation in the direction of trends in ACS and chronic CHD hospitalisation rates (p<0.001). During 2004–2013, reductions in ACS hospitalisation rates were greater than for chronic CHD hospitalisation rates in both countries, with the largest subgroup declines in unstable angina (England: men: −7.1 %/year, 95% CI −7.2 to –7.0; women: −7.5 %/year, 95% CI −7.7 to –7.3; Australia: men: −8.5 %/year, 95% CI −8.6 to –8.4; women: −8.6 %/year, 95% CI −8.8 to –8.4). Other CHD rates increased in individuals aged 75–84 years in both countries. Chronic CHD comprised half of all CHD admissions, with the majority involving angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention.

Conclusions

Since 2004, rates of all CHD subgroups have fallen, with greater declines in acute than chronic presentations. The slower declines and high proportion of chronic CHD admissions undergoing coronary procedures requires greater focus.